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-   -   All borders to reopen. (https://www.pprune.org/australia-new-zealand-pacific/632861-all-borders-reopen.html)

neville_nobody 15th Feb 2021 02:48

For pilots it will just mean you are part time or stood down until you are made redundant or bankruptcy which ever occurs first.

I can't see any airline receiving a bail out from government regardless of circumstances.

The only real solution for airlines is for the State Governments to actually agree on not shutting the borders all the time. However it will take some significant financial shock before they are dragged kicking and screaming to that position. We only have to look at QLD, they shut down the State then expect a Federal Government handout. Until they and the general population start taking in the wallet it won't change.

ruprecht 15th Feb 2021 03:15


Originally Posted by Scooter Rassmussin (Post 10990792)
The move away from jobkeeper means nothing to the companies, sure they were able to milk a little for themselves but having the staff lose jobkeeper is no skin off the companies nose .

Yeah, not so sure about that.

The only reason I’m not taking any leave is because of jobkeeper. Once jobkeeper ends I will start emptying my leave bank. I’m confident I’m not the only one.

ManillaChillaDilla 15th Feb 2021 03:28

Scooter and Neville nailed it.

The end of JobKeeper means the end of employment for many. Ironically timed around Easter.

Those taking day off payments while others go broke unfortunately typify the sad state of affairs within Australia as a whole.

MCD.

Servo 15th Feb 2021 03:32


Originally Posted by ruprecht (Post 10990802)
Yeah, not so sure about that.

The only reason I’m not taking any leave is because of jobkeeper. Once jobkeeper ends I will start emptying my leave bank. I’m confident I’m not the only one.

I dont have any leave or LSL left. Already used it all up :( we are on the precipice of disaster at home.

wheels_down 15th Feb 2021 03:44


Originally Posted by ManillaChillaDilla (Post 10990805)
Scooter and Neville nailed it.

The end of JobKeeper means the end of employment for many. Ironically timed around Easter.

Those taking day off payments while others go broke unfortunately typify the sad state of affairs within Australia as a whole.

MCD.

Why does it mean the end of employment? Stood down for another 6 months does not equal unemployment? It equals no cash coming in.

What cost to Virgin is there by having its crews stood down for 6 months without pay, vs making them redundant? I mean if they are going to be stood up in 6 months what’s the point of paying out a redundancy? Jayne will do whatever is cheaper in the long term.

ruprecht 15th Feb 2021 04:46


Originally Posted by ManillaChillaDilla (Post 10990805)
Scooter and Neville nailed it.

The end of JobKeeper means the end of employment for many. Ironically timed around Easter.

Those taking day off payments while others go broke unfortunately typify the sad state of affairs within Australia as a whole.

MCD.

My point is that once jobkeeper ends there will be an extra cash drain on the the airlines as some employees start using their leave. I’m unclear whether the airlines have factored this into their cash reserve calculations.

currawong 15th Feb 2021 04:52


Originally Posted by empacher48 (Post 10990606)
Try Level 3 for Auckland and 2 for the rest of the country. Level 4 cannot be put in place for individual provinces and is country wide only.

As in August, because the contact tracing team hasn’t figured out where they got it from, lock down to make sure it’s not being spread through the community without people knowing.

Unlike the community cases a few weeks ago, in November and October where the source can be traced back to MIQ, no alert levels were changed because contact tracers and genomic testing could identify a source.

If the contact tracing is good enough and you can quickly find the source and close contacts NZ does not change alert levels.

When there is no clear source, then yes alert levels change.

Compare NZ’s reaction to Victoria or WA, if NZ know where the case came from and close contacts are known (takes no longer than 24 hours for NZ contact tracers to identify close contacts, 48 hours for casual and casual+ contacts), so in the case of the Holiday Inn situation NZ would not have changed alert levels for that.

You are right of course. Typo on my part.:O

You are also right that it had been eliminated.

Reintroduced through a leaky quarantine and eliminated again.

I am of the belief that the current method of control, swift, brief restrictions in order for contact tracers to catch up is the best they have come up with so far.

It has worked, well and a precautionary 3 or 5 days is stand out better than a reactive 3 weeks or months.

DirectAnywhere 15th Feb 2021 06:27


Originally Posted by ruprecht (Post 10990822)
My point is that once jobkeeper ends there will be an extra cash drain on the the airlines as some employees start using their leave. I’m unclear whether the airlines have factored this into their cash reserve calculations.

The language and tone from the Feds around support for specific industries such as tourism and aviation is starting to soften. Frydenburg was interviewed on AM this morning. Given his language, you’d expect to see economy wide measures such as Jobkeeper end but a new package of support for specific industries only (that can’t be called Jobkeeper but would be materially similar) announced in the next few weeks.

Start about 4 mins in. Sabra Lane mentions aviation specifically, Frydenburg discusses QF cancelling 1500 inbound flights to QLD in January and goes on to say specific industry measures are under consideration now. In other words, I think, DON’T PANIC.


https://www.abc.net.au/radio/adelaid...am/am/13133946

Lockhart 15th Feb 2021 06:44


Originally Posted by ruprecht (Post 10990822)
My point is that once jobkeeper ends there will be an extra cash drain on the the airlines as some employees start using their leave. I’m unclear whether the airlines have factored this into their cash reserve calculations.

Well this is a rumour network and what I heard at around 5.25pm while the radio was in the background, a worker in the construction industry was advised
don't bother coming to work till the end of March. What does the construction industry know that we don't? He couldn't could he, put
Vic into a 4 week lockdown. The first was called a circuit breaker.

He wasn't prepared to make any call today. It was 1 case today.
Well I hope I'm wrong, very very wrong, though if cases are 1 tomorrow and the next I wonder what the hell Dan is going to say on Wed.
Maybe I'm tapping into Dan's brain to much and he might just think 'well job keeper ends in March, why not March. That's time on my side'. This guy loves stress and
he enjoys applying stress to others.

wheels_down 15th Feb 2021 07:08


Originally Posted by Lockhart (Post 10990847)

though if cases are 1 tomorrow and the next I wonder what the hell Dan is going to say on Wed.
.

‘There is a 14 day incubation period’
‘UK Strain’
‘This isn’t the 2020 Virus we are dealing with here’
‘For all we know it could be spreading like wildfire’
‘We need to be absolutely sure’
‘I don’t apologise for taking the medical advice’

Extend for a further 9 Days. :hmm:

SRFred 15th Feb 2021 07:44

Remember he has a ticking clock on his emergency powers and they expire in a couple of weeks.

Lockhart 15th Feb 2021 21:55

About 3 weeks ago wasn't their a chap 26yo that had the UK strain went to a stack of places in the Glen Waverley area
such as Bunnings, Dan Murphy's then when found out that he had the virus isolated though all the hot spots he visited
produced no other cases. No lockdown then and 2 cases today connected to the Holiday Inn so no community transmission.
If the same tomorrow then lockdown should and will end tomorrow.

highflyer40 15th Feb 2021 22:13


Originally Posted by C441 (Post 10990307)
I'm not sure that facilities suitable for a few hundred US Marines would necessarily be equally suitable for families, including children, returning from o/s.

Im also not sure that facilities (or lack there of) would be suitable for your law abiding citizens following the rules. Should an Australian citizen who has been living their life overseas and just found out their parent has 1 month to live so chooses to fly home (accepting quarantine) be expected to live in a military camp for 2 weeks? What the military may accept and the public will accept or two completely different things... rightly so.

Chronic Snoozer 15th Feb 2021 22:21

Dan Andrews grilling

Green.Dot 15th Feb 2021 22:31


Originally Posted by Chronic Snoozer (Post 10991297)

Nice work Leigh, very valid questions for the struggling businesses.

Judging by his lack of composure under the pressure of an interview, no surprise he can’t keep a clear mind during the decisions/or lack of he has made since Jan 2020.

2 or more cases tomorrow and the lockdown fun will continue I reckon.

Chronic Snoozer 15th Feb 2021 22:51


Originally Posted by Green.Dot (Post 10991303)
Nice work Leigh, very valid questions for the struggling businesses.

Judging by his lack of composure under the pressure of an interview, no surprise he can’t keep a clear mind during the decisions/or lack of he has made since Jan 2020.

2 or more cases tomorrow and the lockdown fun will continue I reckon.

He’s fronting the presser but in reality he is ‘following advice’. Perhaps Sutton should have been asked the questions as well.

Sunfish 15th Feb 2021 23:44

Assuming no new community transmission by tomorrow night I think we will unlock. The lockdown plan assumed a hundred or more new cases, we aren't anywhere near that......yet.

1A_Please 16th Feb 2021 00:08


Originally Posted by Sunfish (Post 10991333)
Assuming no new community transmission by tomorrow night I think we will unlock. The lockdown plan assumed a hundred or more new cases, we aren't anywhere near that......yet.

The question is whether unlock is back to where we were last week or a different level of restrictions and therefore only a partial reopening. Typically we haven't immediately reopened completely and have had a stepped approach. Who knows this time? He wants a full stadium for the AusOpen finals as it looks good on TV so may be we will go straight back this time. He never discloses the medical advice he uses (probably because it doesn't exist) so whatever he does he will say it is consistent with the medical advice.

ScepticalOptomist 16th Feb 2021 03:03

Barely a grilling..

When he stated this isn’t the 2020 virus but the “highly contagious” UK variant, that is about to run rampant - why does no one challenge?

Unbelievable the crap these guys are allowed to sprout unchallenged.

So many people are absolutely buying into the continuing fear campaign BS.

We are a dumb bunch here in Aus nowadays.


SHVC 16th Feb 2021 03:31

Even dumber that we will be one of the last countries to be vaccinating. Two have full approval but they’re still fluffing around first jab scheduled 25th Feb.

dr dre 16th Feb 2021 03:34


Originally Posted by ScepticalOptomist (Post 10991380)
Barely a grilling..

When he stated this isn’t the 2020 virus but the “highly contagious” UK variant, that is about to run rampant - why does no one challenge?

Unbelievable the crap these guys are allowed to sprout unchallenged.

So many people are absolutely buying into the continuing fear campaign BS.

We are a dumb bunch here in Aus nowadays.

Not really.

Yes the B117 variant is more highly contagious.

So why hasn’t it easily spread in Australia? A couple of reasons. Workers in high risk jobs were maintaining social distancing aware of their higher risk probably. Good contact tracing and quick testing.

Hotter weather also means less chance of spread. But the answer isn’t to look the other way and let it spread just because it’s warm, as a latent amount of virus in the community could explode by winter, and whilst the vaccine is on the way the program won’t be completed by October.

So you can see the logic in stopping this variant (or any variant really) not being allowed to spread around even at a low level now.

1A_Please 16th Feb 2021 04:08


Originally Posted by SHVC (Post 10991387)
Even dumber that we will be one of the last countries to be vaccinating. Two have full approval but they’re still fluffing around first jab scheduled 25th Feb.

Initial shipment of Pfizer only arrived in Australia yesterday. It needs to be checked that it has not degraded during shipping and then be shipped on a per-capita basis to each capital city. This is probably inefficient but politically unavoidable. Initial A-Z vaccinations have not yet arrived in country and real rollout of it won't commence until CSL ramps up local production next month.

We are fortunate to be one of the safest countries in the world when it comes to Covid-19. US, UK etc had to rush approval of vaccinations in advance of official sign-off by those countries drug agencies. We had the luxury of waiting and seeing if there were any issues with these drugs not detected in pre-release testing. Regardless, the vaccination program will run for 6-8 months so there is little likelihood of any borders opening in the meantime particularly as it will also depend on other countries rolling out a vaccination program throughout their populations. Unfortunately, there is no shortcut back to anything approaching normal.

SHVC 16th Feb 2021 04:36

I don’t think we will see normal for years.

wheels_down 16th Feb 2021 05:14

The new and improved vaccines which will most likely arrive in around a year rendering the current obsolete, and will be next years final mission.

Vaccinate this year with the first concept.
Vaccinate next year the bullet proof version 2.

2023 onwards it starts to die off.

Xmas of 2023 we are in the green. Full steam ahead.

25/26 recruitment should start to pickup in this industry. Concerns around pilot numbers probably a few years before entering the next decade.

Chronic Snoozer 16th Feb 2021 05:27


Originally Posted by dr dre (Post 10991388)
Not really.

Yes the B117 variant is more highly contagious.

From the link -

With that said, the basics of how we’re supposed to live our lives and how we’re supposed to control this are essentially unchanged. The mitigation measures that we have in place, things like social distancing, wearing a mask, avoiding indoor shared spaces, reducing any unnecessary risks, are still the best measures that we have to try to control this.
And that is the nub of the problem. Is ‘more highly contagious’ significantly different to ‘highly contagious’? By how much? (Could it be worse than a fate worse than death?)

Language like this doesn’t stop the virus. Hyper-infectious. Hyperbole perhaps.

And belies instances like this Perth Outbreak, where there was oddly no transmission beyond patient zero.

And is disputed routinely by epidemiologists.

I’m not sure the evidence-based case has ever been succinctly made by politicians for measures above and beyond what are already in place for COVID MK 1. Nor is the raw ‘health advice’ shared or explained when it differs significantly from other states’ CMOs.

As for Dan’s claim ‘we’re not going to shop around for advice’, it beggars belief that health officials wouldn’t share information and base their decisions on what works best rather deliberately choose to go their own way, which is how I take that comment.

jrfsp 16th Feb 2021 05:31

The uptake of the vaccine will be interesting, particularly of the AZ vaccine, if further boosters are required. Its not like the population is as risk of catching COVID unlike most parts of the world.

Buster Hyman 16th Feb 2021 06:22


Originally Posted by ScepticalOptomist (Post 10991380)
So many people are absolutely buying into the continuing fear campaign BS.

https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....5ab5c45be8.jpg

Chris2303 16th Feb 2021 08:03


Originally Posted by SHVC (Post 10991401)
I don’t think we will see normal for years.

I agree entirely.

Even then it won't be the normal that we used to know

Dannyboy39 16th Feb 2021 08:18


Originally Posted by 1A_Please (Post 10991394)
Initial shipment of Pfizer only arrived in Australia yesterday. It needs to be checked that it has not degraded during shipping and then be shipped on a per-capita basis to each capital city. This is probably inefficient but politically unavoidable. Initial A-Z vaccinations have not yet arrived in country and real rollout of it won't commence until CSL ramps up local production next month.

We are fortunate to be one of the safest countries in the world when it comes to Covid-19. US, UK etc had to rush approval of vaccinations in advance of official sign-off by those countries drug agencies. We had the luxury of waiting and seeing if there were any issues with these drugs not detected in pre-release testing. Regardless, the vaccination program will run for 6-8 months so there is little likelihood of any borders opening in the meantime particularly as it will also depend on other countries rolling out a vaccination program throughout their populations. Unfortunately, there is no shortcut back to anything approaching normal.

They were absolutely not rushed in the U.K. and USA. And the Aus authorities have approved it anyway?

dr dre 16th Feb 2021 08:44


Originally Posted by jrfsp (Post 10991417)
The uptake of the vaccine will be interesting, particularly of the AZ vaccine, if further boosters are required. Its not like the population is as risk of catching COVID unlike most parts of the world.

More publicity of pandemics and health awareness spurred last year’s flu vaccine uptake to roughly 70% of the Australian population.

With Covid Vax it will surely be more, given Covid has greater consequences, there was no government publicity campaign for the flu vax, and most importantly a Covid vax will be free for all as opposed to fluvax which a lot of people had to pay for.

currawong 16th Feb 2021 10:06


Originally Posted by Dannyboy39 (Post 10991496)
They were absolutely not rushed in the U.K. and USA. And the Aus authorities have approved it anyway?

Approved through the normal process per other vaccines.

Not under emergency use provisions or under a temporary authorisation.

Due in large part to having the luxury of time to do so, due to the low rates of infection.

ScepticalOptomist 16th Feb 2021 10:22


Originally Posted by dr dre (Post 10991388)
Not really.

Yes the B117 variant is more highly contagious.

So why hasn’t it easily spread in Australia? A couple of reasons. Workers in high risk jobs were maintaining social distancing aware of their higher risk probably. Good contact tracing and quick testing.

Hotter weather also means less chance of spread. But the answer isn’t to look the other way and let it spread just because it’s warm, as a latent amount of virus in the community could explode by winter, and whilst the vaccine is on the way the program won’t be completed by October.

So you can see the logic in stopping this variant (or any variant really) not being allowed to spread around even at a low level now.

You’re not a Victorian by any chance? :-)

dr dre 16th Feb 2021 10:35


Originally Posted by ScepticalOptomist (Post 10991570)
You’re not a Victorian by any chance? :-)

No, and neither are these professors of infectious diseases and virology from NSW and Queensland who give a science based not politically based answer to the question of why the new strain hasn’t wreaked havoc in Australia yet.

ScepticalOptomist 17th Feb 2021 04:04


Originally Posted by dr dre (Post 10991582)
No, and neither are these professors of infectious diseases and virology from NSW and Queensland who give a science based not politically based answer to the question of why the new strain hasn’t wreaked havoc in Australia yet.

Well then you’re agreeing with my earlier premise that the premiers are sprouting fear and lies, and that we’re a dumb bunch for believing them.

The professors in that article quite clearly state that whilst the new strain is more contagious it really isn’t that great a concern to us as we have effective controls in place.

Dan the man from stalag-Victoria during the “grilling” said that this strain was WAY more dangerous to us and “not like the 2020 virus”.

Which was a load of shite, and he should’ve been properly grilled - hence my original post.

jrfsp 18th Feb 2021 04:31

Since when has BJ been interested in health advice....over 100K have died on his watch.

The problem in Australia is that unless Dan got Vic back to 0 cases, then it would be the outlier in the country, and would remain locked out from interstate travel. Rightly or wrongly, Short sharp lockdown has been adopted by AU / NZ (Bar NSW),

SHVC 18th Feb 2021 22:18

Guessing 3 cases in Victoria today, it is battle stations again Dan is switching to guns. Big JW (who I still don't know what he does) has a big announcement at 10:30 could be another snap lock down on its way!

Ladloy 18th Feb 2021 23:33


Originally Posted by SHVC (Post 10993142)
Guessing 3 cases in Victoria today, it is battle stations again Dan is switching to guns. Big JW (who I still don't know what he does) has a big announcement at 10:30 could be another snap lock down on its way!

No new exposure sites and the 3 cases have been connected to other cases home. They also been home since the outbreak.

SHVC 19th Feb 2021 06:48

I don’t think cost is really an issue considering Victoria quick brain snap lockdown cost 1 billion dollars.

White Knight 19th Feb 2021 11:55


Originally Posted by jrfsp
Since when has BJ been interested in health advice....over 100K have died on his watch.

What a stupid comment. The UK's 65,000,000 population in an area the size of VIC, the UK being geographically a crossroads for world travel unlike the Cul-de-Sac that is Australia and the far older population. Of course there will be a lot of deaths! The fact is the lethality is extremely low for people under 65 years old!

Maybe you should see the latest headlines in the UK about the expected extra 100,000 Cancer deaths in the next year (affecting all ages severely) because the illness has been undiagnosed or untreated due to the Covid flap. And that's just the Big C. Time to look past the BS now...

havick 19th Feb 2021 13:28


Originally Posted by White Knight (Post 10993515)
What a stupid comment. The UK's 65,000,000 population in an area the size of VIC, the UK being geographically a crossroads for world travel unlike the Cul-de-Sac that is Australia and the far older population. Of course there will be a lot of deaths! The fact is the lethality is extremely low for people under 65 years old!

Maybe you should see the latest headlines in the UK about the expected extra 100,000 Cancer deaths in the next year (affecting all ages severely) because the illness has been undiagnosed or untreated due to the Covid flap. And that's just the Big C. Time to look past the BS now...

Problem is Australia has gone all in with the govt/media scare tactics, too hard to reverse course now without looking stupid.


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