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Originally Posted by SHVC
(Post 11095150)
As long as it’s not an investment property you can go! At the coffee shop now, whilst take away is the order there is about 30 odd standing around drinking their coffee in front of the cafe. Good work Gladys. A lockdown should be just that, only supermarkets, Medical practice, chemist and fuel stations. The rest should be closed.
Pre-vaccine childhood "Those that fail to learn from history, are doomed to repeat it." Churchill |
Originally Posted by SHVC
(Post 11095184)
McGowen on Sky News AM agenda today has said despite the National Cabinet agreement promising the country would open up once 80 per cent of residents had been vaccinated, he would retain a zero COVID policy and not tolerate any COVID cases or deaths in his state. “His state” he owns you all he thinks.
The WA Premier told Sky News that, despite the National Cabinet agreement promising the country would open up once 80 per cent of residents had been vaccinated, he would retain a zero COVID policy and not tolerate any COVID cases or deaths in his state."We retain the right to put in place border [restrictions], that's understood, but some of the measures we put in place might ease, once we reach that level of vaccination. "I'm looking forward to getting over 80 per cent, apparently no country in the world has got there yet." Asked if he would retain a hard border to New South Wales for an indeterminate period if that state never got to zero COVID cases, Mr McGowan said: "We retain that right, obviously I'd prefer not to". "My own mother and father and my brother live in NSW and personally I'd love to be able to see them and I know there's many thousands of people in that position... and other people want to go to NSW on holidays or business or whatever it might be... but the best answer I can give to that is for the foreseeable future, probably until the end of the year, we'll have to have a strong border in place with NSW because we can't run the risk of it infiltrating into Western Australia. "... When they get down to zero or minimal spread, then we can look forward to opening the border." On the concept of zero COVID and whether it would be sustainable for years into the future, Mr McGowan said: "When people say it's impossible and the like, people have a short memory out there. Victoria went through hell last year... and did what it took. There's a template for you." McGowan's got rocks in his head if he thinks there's going to be "zero or minimal spread" with this Delta strain, even if we got to 90% vaccinated. |
Originally Posted by SHVC
(Post 11095157)
Don’t shoot the messenger, after my coffee I’m going to look at property also.
I was watching the USA morning show this morning they were reporting in massive spike in positive cases mainly in Florida. USA are not locking down shutting the economy. They seem to be enforcing mask wearing having empty stadiums at sports etc. |
Oh is that so. So what are the symptoms that are unique to COVID-19? https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019.../symptoms.html The UK has two separate distinctions for classifying covid deaths. "due to covid" which is where the virus was the underlying cause of symptoms and death, and "involving covid" where the patient was covid "positive", but the underlying cause of death was determined to be of other cause. As stated before, you could be determined covid positive. Which might mean you are just carrying some dead covid cells, ok I get that. But to be classified as having died due to covid it has to be relevant to symptoms and virus patterns, and determined by a medical professional. Now that being said it would answer why the death rate has appeared to drop. If the threshold for testing positive was too low, you would get skewed data due to being positive and dieing from covid are measured in different ways. To put it in simple terms, the CFR % is the deaths divided by cases. If the cases were over stated, then the CFR would indicate lower than actual. ie 1000 test positive vs 100 dead, 10% CFR. If only 500 of those actually carried enough virus to be deemed "infected" the real CFR is closer to 20%. Don't also confuse asymptomatic with non infected. Asymptomatic just means you are not displaying symptoms, but your body could be still fighting the infection within. Where as non infected would mean you are killing all virus cells that enter before they can replicate at any significant rate, both you could detect virus cells within the body. BTW, to avoid any suggestion of conspiracy here; If a doctor was to deceivingly diagnose you with covid, you were treated for that, and later it comes out you died from flu, well, there would be a lot of law suits happening. I can't see doctors en-masse agreeing to waste their medical credentials and livelihood on pushing some weird government agender. |
From Chant at today's useless brief -
But chief health officer Kerry Chant warned vaccination alone was "not a silver bullet". "There is no silver bullet and vaccination is not a silver bullet — it is a tool," she said. "Vaccination alone will not get us out of this situation. |
Another flawed analogy. Also I didn't use any analogy. The reference to CFR was a simple example without using real world data, It was in no way an Analogy. I really get the feeling you are way out of your depth in this conversation. |
Yeah, I lack cognitive ability, I'm a conspiracy theorist, I'm way out of depth, I need to see a doctor etc etc. Thanks again for proving my point. Was the point that you need a break and maybe lay off the alchohol? You should think about taking a holiday somewhere nice, you know, get away from it all! If your fully vaxxed, maybe try WA? Tell me how that goes. GO GET VACCINATED, so we can all get back to it. PS, I'm going for a walk, write me some noice one line retorts for me to play with when i return. |
Some how I don’t think vaccination will get us back to work. Only zero cases and more than 80% vax rate then it will be discussed. There is that zero case mentality among the premiers who run this country, even Dr Chant would not say the 80% would be a free for all.
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Yeah I need a break , I need to lay of the alcohol, your a farce. I need a break from you. I mean really I have read all your stuff, and my main issue is I have no idea what you are trying to say. Your retorts are confusing and make no sense. I'm trying to understand you but it's just not working, you post a lot of vids but no explanation of how they tie to the subject matter. When I tried to link what the vids showed and actual data you claim there's some flawed analogy, which again I'm unsure what analogy I used. And you keep referring to the word farce, I mean its comical in itself, but hardly insulting. The fact you don't answer direct questions generally infers you have little knowledge on the subject matter. So please enlighten us with what you know. |
Originally Posted by SHVC
(Post 11095212)
Some how I don’t think vaccination will get us back to work. Only zero cases and more than 80% vax rate then it will be discussed. There is that zero case mentality among the premiers who run this country, even Dr Chant would not say the 80% would be a free for all.
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For obvious reasons we definitely will not be holidaying in Fiji or Bali anytime soon.
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Originally Posted by 43Inches
(Post 11095220)
For obvious reasons we definitely will not be holidaying in Fiji or Bali anytime soon.
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Originally Posted by SHVC
(Post 11095212)
Some how I don’t think vaccination will get us back to work. Only zero cases and more than 80% vax rate then it will be discussed. There is that zero case mentality among the premiers who run this country, even Dr Chant would not say the 80% would be a free for all.
Marc McGowan has just said on Sky, that even at 80 percent vaccination, WA will always strive for zero covid, and the measures will include lock downs and hard borders…….. https://www.perthnow.com.au/news/cor...rows-c-3684935 |
So, If only 500 of those actually carried enough virus to be deemed 'infected', wouldn't that 100 'dead' number you used as an analogy, drop to maybe like 1 death (analogy) actual infection from the virus itself? Or you still using the false positive in your equation>? My figures were a simple equation of the same principle. The explanation is thus; The false positive you are referring to, as explained in the videos is only for testing. Amount of dead within the same group will not change as the measuring stick for deciding if a death was due to Covid involves far more indicators than just the PCR test. I'd have to dig them up again but the Mortality Figures published by the UK go more into detail about actual features of a Covid infection, such as clots in the lung, heart issues and brain issues associated with the virus. So the only variable would be the case numbers, with little variance in the death toll. If the PCR test is set too sensitive, too many will present positive, therefore basic deaths vs cases will seem low. The opposite will occur is PCR test is not sensitive enough, fatality rate would seem high, less cases to more deaths. I mean the answer would be incident rate use, but since covid seems to be reinfecting it may be a hard one to quantify. Also still requires a large expensive study to even get baseline figures for how many are infected. A good example of flawed covid stats. Fiji right now; Fong said as announced on 21 July, only people that had a higher risk of developing severe Covid-19 were being tested in Suva-Nausori. "This was done so that resources could be targeted to early detection, monitoring and care of persons with Covid-19, who are at higher risk of severe disease, to prevent more people succumbing to severe disease and death," Dr Fong said in an epidemic outlook of the pandemic in the country. "We are likely seeing the effect of this testing policy change now in Suva-Nausori with the drop in daily reported cases. I also worry that a lot may be dead at home and not found yet, it's pretty bad over there. |
Originally Posted by Blackout
(Post 11095193)
and also Unexplained Blip, I couldn't find a memo from WHO worried about the False Negatives.
As Lockdowns are based on case numbers, the problem really is .False Positives |
As the video sort of explained a while back the PCR test can pick up anything, it's really not a false positive, the test picked up covid. The critical question as the Fauci Vid questions is how much Covid then makes one infectious, this is something that has been debated a bit. Generally it's not just how much but live/dead and where it's located. Live virus found in the respiratory system makes one definitely more contagious than dead virus in your intestine.
Re using Case numbers for lockdowns, there is really no other way. There is nothing else we know of that's fast enough to stay ahead of the virus, even then using case numbers is lagging it seems. |
Originally Posted by Blackout
(Post 11095232)
"Yes correct, over 99% recover- FACT
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Fiji would have been a good example of actual fatality rates, as it seems we are going to see a country that will rapidly close in on 100% full infection. Unfortunately the Government there and the health system are already blaming people for not going to hospital as the reason for deaths. Its a government that tends to cover its own backside and "adjust" figures if they were to get out of control.
The change in testing methodology and such means we will just lack the data to gain anything meaningful from it. |
Originally Posted by Blackout
(Post 11095225)
Dont worry 43, please add more to the list, im running myself down and have very bad english.
If you want to get a handle of the real nature of this Covid problem then have a look at this real world data https://www.nejm.org/na101/home/lite...101765_f2.jpegAll persons who were newly vaccinated during the period from December 20, 2020, to February 1, 2021, were matched to unvaccinated controls in a 1:1 ratio according to demographic and clinical characteristics. As you can see the vaccines are having an effect on case numbers and fatality rates. But the intent of my post is to try and extrapolate the real nature of the Covid problem. Two cohorts of 596 618 people each followed out to 42 days. Infections in Unvaccinated 29365 Fatalities 112 .....IFR 0.38% Infections in vaccinated 22943 Fatalities 32 ...........IFR 0.14% Put in another way recovery rate in Unvaccinated was 99.62% and in Vaccinated was 99.86% These IFR are similar to Stanford University modelling. The difference is the above data is Real World. |
I really have to laugh at you two, it's definitely a dynamic duo.
One is arguing the PCR is too sensitive, then lauds when the other provides a big graph using that PCR data to prove a point....Gold Standard I don't think they have even read each others posts. Keep going my court jesters, I do find you both quaint and mildly amusing. |
Originally Posted by 43Inches
(Post 11095238)
I really have to laugh at you two, it's definitely a dynamic duo.
One is arguing the PCR is too sensitive, then lauds when the other provides a big graph using that PCR data to prove a point....Gold Standard I don't think they have even read each others posts. Keep going my court jesters, I do find you both quaint and mildly amusing. By the way I found your tutorial on the workings of mRNA vaccines most entertaining. Had me in stitches. Oh I forgot! You’ve spent time with doctors. |
Is that the best you can come up with 43Inches? By the way I found your tutorial on the workings of mRNA vaccines most entertaining. Had me in stitches. Oh I forgot! You’ve spent time with doctors. |
Originally Posted by 43Inches
(Post 11095243)
I mean seriously all the others have to do is read your assumptions, I don't need to insult you, you do it to yourself. :E
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I mean what is your overall purpose here?
My interest is to sway people to get out and vaccinate, that is all, then I can go back to work and leave you to your misguided antics. Are you an Anti-vaxxer is that the point? I could go to the trouble of explaining why and how your data yet again is flawed, but I'm pretty sure all and sundry are aware of that by now, so I'll leave it short. |
I’ve seen countless examples of your logic so don’t waste your time.
You bore me to tears mate. Honestly. |
I’ve seen countless examples of your logic so don’t waste your time. You bore me to tears mate. Honestly. |
Originally Posted by 43Inches
(Post 11095248)
One thing I don't do is bore you to tears, I'm under your skin so bad it's like a Covid itch that you cant get rid of. You wouldn't be responding and targeting me so vehemently if it was any other case. I do appreciate the love and attention though.
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If the egotists could possibly stop bickering for a minute.
Originally Posted by SOPS
(Post 11095222)
Im not commenting on whether this is right or wrong.. just stating what was said.
Marc McGowan has just said on Sky, that even at 80 percent vaccination, WA will always strive for zero covid, and the measures will include lock downs and hard borders…….. If borders are going to stay closed at 80% vaccination in pursuit of a COVID-zero strategy we might as well all pack up now and sell the aeroplanes for coke cans because that's all they're useful for. Morrison has no authority or power. His political capital is at an all time low and the premiers are demanding COVID-zero as the policy going forward. Can anyone else see a way out of this that ends well for aviation, because I'm really struggling to at the moment? |
Funny that! I read somewhere that a rare side effect of Covid vaccination is Delusions of Granduer. You sure you’re feeling ok? |
Originally Posted by 43Inches
(Post 11095246)
I mean what is your overall purpose here?
My interest is to sway people to get out and vaccinate, that is all, then I can go back to work and leave you to your misguided antics. |
Napoleon hat?
Isn’t that what short guys with an inferiority complex wear? You trying to tell me something? |
Now come on 377, Mr Two Cents is at least attempting some witty retort, although it's so blunt I'm suffering more concussion than insult.
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Originally Posted by Paragraph377
(Post 11095262)
The one thing that you are putting your trust in is not something that is guaranteed to work in the long run. Tsk tsk tsk.
We don't have a damn choice, not FIFO crew and sure as hell not pilots (Rex & QLink Driver's excepted). I didn't want to get the vaccination, but from where I sit, essentially jobless and unemployed, what is the alternative? Sit here hoping the Premier's will cave in and say "You know what, stuff it, let's go!" We all know that won't happen... McGowan has already all but admitted he won't reopen the border no matter what the vaccination rate is nationwide, so, short of assassinating 7 Premiers (well, 6, I'll give the NT Chief Minister a pass, they've been fairly level-headed throughout), or staging a military coup, I don't see any alternative. That being said, I do think this thing will evolve, hopefully to something like the flu, with annual vaccines, however, there's also a distinct possibility of it going the other way. My only hope in that case, is it strikes Parliament House first.... |
We don't have a damn choice, not FIFO crew and sure as hell not pilots (Rex & QLink Driver's excepted). I didn't want to get the vaccination, but from where I sit, essentially jobless and unemployed, what is the alternative? Sit here hoping the Premier's will cave in and say "You know what, stuff it, let's go!" We all know that won't happen... Whatever your thoughts on pro/not vax. The nation will burst open in the coming months once those targets are met. The faster we get there the less it will send whats left of aviation and tourism broke. Add to that as a pilot/airline worker you probably won't have a choice anyway, so better to just get it done. |
Originally Posted by Paragraph377
(Post 11095262)
vaccination is no guarantee of a return to normal. It’s not a guarantee that other COVID variations won’t occur, therefor no guarantee that lockdowns will end, no guarantee that your current vaccination will remain effective and no guarantee that travel will return to normal and you get to go back to work flying
There is also a probability that another virus, not a mutation of COVID19, will make itself known in the medium term |
Originally Posted by common cents
(Post 11095235)
Blackout don’t waste your time with the likes of 43Inches.
If you want to get a handle of the real nature of this Covid problem then have a look at this real world data https://www.nejm.org/na101/home/lite...101765_f2.jpegAll persons who were newly vaccinated during the period from December 20, 2020, to February 1, 2021, were matched to unvaccinated controls in a 1:1 ratio according to demographic and clinical characteristics. As you can see the vaccines are having an effect on case numbers and fatality rates. But the intent of my post is to try and extrapolate the real nature of the Covid problem. Two cohorts of 596 618 people each followed out to 42 days. Infections in Unvaccinated 29365 Fatalities 112 .....IFR 0.38% Infections in vaccinated 22943 Fatalities 32 ...........IFR 0.14% Put in another way recovery rate in Unvaccinated was 99.62% and in Vaccinated was 99.86% These IFR are similar to Stanford University modelling. The difference is the above data is Real World. BACKGROUNDAs mass vaccination campaigns against coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) commence worldwide, vaccine effectiveness needs to be assessed for a range of outcomes across diverse populations in a noncontrolled setting. In this study, data from Israel’s largest health care organization were used to evaluate the effectiveness of the BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine.METHODSAll persons who were newly vaccinated during the period from December 20, 2020, to February 1, 2021, were matched to unvaccinated controls in a 1:1 ratio according to demographic and clinical characteristics. Study outcomes included documented infection with the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), symptomatic Covid-19, Covid-19–related hospitalization, severe illness, and death. We estimated vaccine effectiveness for each outcome as one minus the risk ratio, using the Kaplan–Meier estimator.RESULTSEach study group included 596,618 persons. Estimated vaccine effectiveness for the study outcomes at days 14 through 20 after the first dose and at 7 or more days after the second dose was as follows: for documented infection, 46% (95% confidence interval [CI], 40 to 51) and 92% (95% CI, 88 to 95); for symptomatic Covid-19, 57% (95% CI, 50 to 63) and 94% (95% CI, 87 to 98); for hospitalization, 74% (95% CI, 56 to 86) and 87% (95% CI, 55 to 100); and for severe disease, 62% (95% CI, 39 to 80) and 92% (95% CI, 75 to 100), respectively. Estimated effectiveness in preventing death from Covid-19 was 72% (95% CI, 19 to 100) for days 14 through 20 after the first dose. Estimated effectiveness in specific subpopulations assessed for documented infection and symptomatic Covid-19 was consistent across age groups, with potentially slightly lower effectiveness in persons with multiple coexisting conditions.CONCLUSIONSThis study in a nationwide mass vaccination setting suggests that the BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine is effective for a wide range of Covid-19–related outcomes, a finding consistent with that of the randomized trial.The authors of that study (BNT162b2 mRNA Covid-19 Vaccine in a Nationwide Mass Vaccination Setting, Dagan et al) found vaccine effectiveness at the important efficacy endpoints of preventing hospitalisation and severe illness 7 or more days after the second dose were 87% for hospitalization, and 92% for severe disease. The estimated effectiveness in preventing death after the first dose was 72%. |
The authors of that study (BNT162b2 mRNA Covid-19 Vaccine in a Nationwide Mass Vaccination Setting, Dagan et al) found vaccine effectiveness at the important efficacy endpoints of preventing hospitalisation and severe illness 7 or more days after the second dose were 87% for hospitalization, and 92% for severe disease. The estimated effectiveness in preventing death after the first dose was 72%. |
Originally Posted by 43Inches
(Post 11095264)
Now come on 377, Mr Two Cents is at least attempting some witty retort, although it's so blunt I'm suffering more concussion than insult.
- 65% vaccination and the borders will open. Now they are saying 70-80%. - I recall the Governments saying that once 80% is achieved then the borders will open. Now some of them are saying it is not a guarantee. - I recall CMO’s saying school aged students are not a risk and are exempt from vaccines. Yet most of the time schools have stayed closed for long periods and now they are talking about younger ones getting vaccinated. - I recall the government saying that if you are immunised you will basically be able to move about freely. Nope, that hasn’t happened. In fact now they are saying that regardless of your vaccine status they may and will continue to close borders and enact lockdowns. You see, the narrative changes constantly depending on what internal polling the political parties are doing, and what those results are. These muppets have no idea how to handle this pandemic. And they cannot guarantee all those ‘wonderful freedoms’ even if everyone is vaccinated. They are full of **** and jumping around from an hour to hour. 43mm, we are all over this COVID ****. All of us. I hope you are right and that when we hit 80% they open the floodgates and let us go about our business. In fact if they do, and you are correct, I will be the first to shout you 3 beers. I am a man of my word. But seeing is believing, and our incompetent, belligerent, gutless Governments are yet to handle any crisis effectively and in a concise and praiseworthy manner. |
Originally Posted by MickG0105
(Post 11095273)
Here's the abstract for the paper the you've taken that graphic from.
BNT162b2 is BioNTech Pfizer. The authors of that study (BNT162b2 mRNA Covid-19 Vaccine in a Nationwide Mass Vaccination Setting, Dagan et al) found vaccine effectiveness at the important efficacy endpoints of preventing hospitalisation and severe illness 7 or more days after the second dose were 87% for hospitalization, and 92% for severe disease. The estimated effectiveness in preventing death after the first dose was 72%. The data is perfect for an extrapolation of the true nature of the problem as it yields an IFR figure of 0.38%. The effect of vaccine is to reduce the IFR down to 0.14%. Yes vaccines work. But in my view we need to stop this infatuation with case numbers as all we are seeing there is the top of the pyramid. The extrapolations I’ve made from real data potentially show the whole pyramid. Respectfully, the damage we are causing with lockdowns is not commensurate with the real problem. |
43mm, we are all over this COVID ****. All of us. I hope you are right and that when we hit 80% they open the floodgates and let us go about our business. In fact if they do, and you are correct, I will be the first to shout you 3 beers. I am a man of my word. But seeing is believing, and our incompetent, belligerent, gutless Governments are yet to handle any crisis effectively and in a concise and praiseworthy manner. Oh and if anyone tries to launch another wave of whatever by summer, I'm creating a time machine and cleaning up some messes with extreme force. |
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