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-   -   All borders to reopen. (https://www.pprune.org/australia-new-zealand-pacific/632861-all-borders-reopen.html)

Clare Prop 9th Jul 2021 07:42

Beware the lurking variable...

galdian 9th Jul 2021 07:46


Originally Posted by Clare Prop (Post 11075721)
Beware the lurking variable...

Is a lurking variable in any way related to a creeping assumption??

Ladloy 9th Jul 2021 09:01

Where are all the Dan haters now? What do they have to say about Gladys?

Icarus2001 9th Jul 2021 09:33

https://www.health.gov.au/sites/defa...-july-2021.pdf


I will bite. Gladys is STILL doing a much better job than Dan. Check out the numbers.

Turnleft080 9th Jul 2021 10:11


Originally Posted by Ladloy (Post 11075771)
Where are all the Dan haters now? What do they have to say about Gladys?

Here is one. Back from the living dead. Dan must of spiked Glady's drink when they got on the beers.
Remember the tv show "The Comedy Company" ( the last time we laughed) looks like the Premiers and their CHOs are making series 2.
It used to be a weekly show, the new version is a daily show.

SOPS 9th Jul 2021 10:13

Mark McGowan has just said that anyone from WA that is in NSW should come home now. He said that the hard border with NSW is about to get harder.

Sounds like no one from NSW will be allowed in.. no exemptions at all. Hope I am wrong.

Bend alot 9th Jul 2021 11:52


Originally Posted by SOPS (Post 11075810)
Mark McGowan has just said that anyone from WA that is in NSW should come home now. He said that the hard border with NSW is about to get harder.

Sounds like no one from NSW will be allowed in.. no exemptions at all. Hope I am wrong.

He does seem to get his medical advice from his Kellogg's morning brain farts. (can be quoted as such)

He has the consistency of extremums diarrhoea.

mattyj 9th Jul 2021 11:57

Everything improved in Victoria when Dan fell down the stairs and took some time off

SOPS 9th Jul 2021 11:58


Originally Posted by Bend alot (Post 11075865)
He does seem to get his medical advice from his Kellogg's morning brain farts. (can be quoted as such)

He has the consistency of extremums diarrhoea.

I assume you don’t think there is a problem in NSW??

Green.Dot 9th Jul 2021 11:59


Originally Posted by Ladloy (Post 11075771)
Where are all the Dan haters now?

Still here buddy. Bring back Merlino.

KRviator 9th Jul 2021 12:32


Originally Posted by SOPS (Post 11075871)
I assume you don’t think there is a problem in NSW??

There isn't a problem in "New South Wales".

There is a very definite problem in "Sydney" and as much as McGowan would like to believe that makes up most of the state, a great many people still live outside it.

Broken Hill is closer to Adelaide than Sydney, Ballina closer to Brisbane, and Albury closer to Melbourne. None of whose residents would fly via Sydney to get to Perth, but they are locked out by default, which is nothing more than a cheap political scaremongering and in can in no way be supported by "health advice".

Foxxster 9th Jul 2021 12:37

Here is a Harvard professors view.


machtuk 9th Jul 2021 13:20

In a nut shell there's two sides to this debacle, you either agree wth the lunatics or you don't, pick one and live by it!

SHVC 9th Jul 2021 21:20

International travel is looking good I’m 2022 hahahahahahaha. 2024 if we’re lucky. Can’t even agree on a strategy to keep our internal borders open. I’m Glad Gladys is taking the current approach and not “falling in to line” as the emperor of the West calls it.

dr dre 9th Jul 2021 23:27


Originally Posted by SHVC (Post 11076120)
I’m Glad Gladys is taking the current approach and not “falling in to line” as the emperor of the West calls it.

This is Berejiklian yesterday:Berejiklian warned unless there was a turnaround, the lockdown could be extended beyond the three weeks.

“Unless there is a dramatic change, unless there is a dramatic turnaround in the numbers, I can’t see how we would be in a position to ease restrictions by next Friday,” she said.

The NSW premier talked down health minister Brad Hazzard’s earlier comments that the state might have to learn to live with the virus, and said case numbers would need to be as close to zero as possible before lockdown would end.

“No state or nation or any country on the planet can live with the Delta variant when our vaccination rates are so low. So please, do not think that the NSW government thinks we can live with this when our rate of vaccination is only at 9%,” she said.

“When you only have 9% of your community vaccinated, opening up before you get as close to that zero number as possible, it means you would subject thousands and thousands to hospitalisation and death.”

“I don’t want anyone to feel like that. But if you are not doing the right thing, please know that we will have to have the law come down on you, because the simple fact is, people doing the wrong thing means that all of us suffer,” she said.


I don’t see how that differs from the basic approach every other state is taking or is “learning to live with” the virus.




Transition Layer 10th Jul 2021 00:15


Originally Posted by SOPS (Post 11075871)
I assume you don’t think there is a problem in NSW??

From the loads I’ve seen, there’s probably less than 200 people a day flying into WA from NSW at the moment, with all being tested and going into quarantine.

So I’d say the current measures are more than enough and anything more is a gross over reaction from McClown. But that’s how he operates, so who knows.

SHVC 10th Jul 2021 01:01

If she followed the approach of other states she would lock everyone up 5 days no movement just stop living. She is still keeping a balance. All that’s affected is a few coffee shops that will bounce back and tourism/aviation which will bounce back. Rest of the world has moved on so should we.

MickG0105 10th Jul 2021 01:22


Originally Posted by Foxxster (Post 11075894)
Here is a Harvard professors view.

https://youtu.be/8OLoqg22M7M

Worth watching but probably needs to be tempered by noting that Professor Kulldorff is a co-author of the Great Barrington Declaration, essentially a push for natural herd immunity through community spread with Focussed Protection for the vulnerable. Kulldorff, a Swede, backed Sweden's broadly Focussed Protection approach to managing COVID-19 and seems to remain wedded to that style of management.

Kulldorff routinely gives out-and-out nonsense oxygen by endorsing or spreading it on social media. His latest foray into the twilight zone is circulating lockdownsceptics.org's hysteria about New Zealand hospitals being 'flooded' with children suffering respiratory illness because lockdowns prevented them from acquiring general immunities through socialising.

The facts of the matter are that there has been an outbreak of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) centred on Wellington, New Zealand. RSV is typically very common in the cooler/colder months and generally affects infants up to two years of age (older children and adults can be affected but most just register it as a cold). RSV infections in New Zealand had been at record lows coming into this outbreak, 98 percent below normal levels. There had been a similar near absence of RSV in Australia over the last 18 months which ended with a spike in March-April this year. Notably in Australia the RSV surges started in New South Wales and Western Australia; two states that had not used lockdowns (as opposed to lockouts) anywhere near as widely as other states during the period prior to the March-April 2021 RSV outbreaks.

The Wellington outbreak is thought to be linked to the opening of travel under the Trans-Tasman Bubble.

Ladloy 10th Jul 2021 01:40


Originally Posted by SHVC (Post 11076198)
If she followed the approach of other states she would lock everyone up 5 days no movement just stop living. She is still keeping a balance. All that’s affected is a few coffee shops that will bounce back and tourism/aviation which will bounce back. Rest of the world has moved on so should we.

yeah lots of balance.....

WingNut60 10th Jul 2021 01:42


Originally Posted by MickG0105 (Post 11076205)
..................... Notably in Australia the RSV surges started in New South Wales and Western Australia; two states that had not used lock-downs (as opposed to lockouts) anywhere near as widely as other states..........

Not sure how you work that one out Mick.
WA has had five lock-downs (I think), four of them being short, sharp lock-downs.

If people are restricted to their homes except where they cannot work from home or allowed out for shopping for essentials, restricted exercise, etc, etc. then I, and Mark, call it a lock-down.
What makes you think that that is not a lock-down? What criteria has not been met?


dr dre 10th Jul 2021 01:47


Originally Posted by Foxxster (Post 11075894)
Here is a Harvard professors view.

His views are an outlier. He’s still pushing the Swedish Herd Immunity idea that the Swedes themselves admitted was a failure. His hasn’t presented numbers or studies on Delta, just some dismissive sentences, there have been studies printed with data showing Delta leads to an 85% rise in hospitalisations, and somewhat more infectious than Alpha. But these are amongst the unvaccinated, and the aforementioned professor also has some anti-vaxxer views. He called for vaccinations to be stopped for young people but then thought it find for them to contract the virus naturally.

Plus Sky News Outsiders? Of all the nutjob Sky News After Dark presenters those guys could qualify as the most nutty, they are still pushing stolen US election conspiracy theories months after the event. Just red meat to attract lunatics.

dr dre 10th Jul 2021 01:53


Originally Posted by SHVC (Post 11076198)
If she followed the approach of other states she would lock everyone up 5 days no movement just stop living. She is still keeping a balance. All that’s affected is a few coffee shops that will bounce back and tourism/aviation which will bounce back. Rest of the world has moved on so should we.

The lockdown is costing $2 billion a week. It’s predicted to extend weeks, even months beyond the start. The other states that went into a short lockdown immediately lasted 4/5 days. And now they’re out of it.

It’s more than just a “few coffee shops” affected.....

EDIT: Sorry $1 billion a week. It’s still a massive hit on the economy


WingNut60 10th Jul 2021 02:00


Originally Posted by dr dre (Post 11076213)
The lockdown is costing $2 billion a week. It’s predicted to extend weeks, even months beyond the start. The other states that went into a short lockdown immediately lasted 4/5 days. And now they’re out of it.

It’s more than just a “few coffee shops” affected.....

And McGowan has caught never-ending derision from the east, notably Beryl & associates, for "locking up the whole state over just one or two cases" when he should have been following Beryl's Diamond Standard.
Those diamonds are starting to look like glass.

MickG0105 10th Jul 2021 02:24


Originally Posted by WingNut60 (Post 11076211)
Not sure how you work that one out Mick.
WA has had five lock-downs (I think), four of them being short, sharp lock-downs.

If people are restricted to their homes except where they cannot work from home or allowed out for shopping for essentials, restricted exercise, etc, etc. then I, and Mark, call it a lock-down.
What makes you think that that is not a lock-down? What criteria has not been met?

Yes, you're right, Western Australia has had a number of short lockdowns.

What I should have said is that most of them - the ones in April, May and June 2021 - occurred subsequent to the March-April respiratory syncytial virus outbreak and therefore could not have been causal or contributory. I've tweaked that in the original post now.

Torukmacto 10th Jul 2021 03:08

No one in NSW hospitals with covid 19 has been fully vaccinated.

Ladloy 10th Jul 2021 04:00

And here we are again. 50 new cases, 20 odd in the community. 14k people in iso. 16 in ICU, including a teenager. Hospitalisation rate just under 2%

jrfsp 10th Jul 2021 04:09

I wouldnt be surprised if VIC / QLD close the entire border soon.

I cannot fathom why GB wont close non essential businesses.....its a no brainer....

Foxxster 10th Jul 2021 05:19


Originally Posted by Torukmacto (Post 11076222)
No one in NSW hospitals with covid 19 has been fully vaccinated.

only about 9% of the population fully vaccinated.

mattyj 10th Jul 2021 05:39

The RSV virus is most certainly not minor in NZ..our health system is fairly parlous at the best of times which was the reason for our strict lockdowns in the first place. There is dozens of infant or preschoolers in hospital and over a thousand reported cases nationwide. It’s almost certainly as a result of reduced immunity levels because of Covid mitigation strategies. There’s always a price to be paid for thumbing your nose at the Gods of the Copybook Headings

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/dozens...N6PHPIW6SNQ7Q/

DirectAnywhere 10th Jul 2021 05:45


Originally Posted by Ladloy (Post 11076227)
Hospitalisation rate just under 2%

Horses&^t. Hospitalisation rate is closer to 10% at the moment. 47 hospitalised out of about 500 active cases. 16 in ICU, five ventilated.

Recovery rate is about 50% post ventilation. People will die in the coming days. It's inevitable with these numbers. The only positive is that it might refocus attention on just how dangerous COVID is, particularly when compared with the very low risk associated with vaccination.

Ladloy 10th Jul 2021 05:56


Originally Posted by DirectAnywhere (Post 11076247)
Horses&^t. Hospitalisation rate is closer to 10% at the moment. 47 hospitalised out of about 500 active cases. 16 in ICU, five ventilated.

Recovery rate is about 50% post ventilation. People will die in the coming days. It's inevitable with these numbers. The only positive is that it might refocus attention on just how dangerous COVID is, particularly when compared with the very low risk associated with vaccination.

ah yep sorry. Under 2% in ICU, as it's not the total hospitalisation. My mistake.

SOPS 10th Jul 2021 06:11

Victoria has just issued a ‘ Come Home Now ‘ message to people in NSW. It seems they are about to lock out NSW.

DirectAnywhere 10th Jul 2021 06:14


Originally Posted by Ladloy (Post 11076252)
ah yep sorry. Under 2% in ICU, as it's not the total hospitalisation. My mistake.

Fair call. Apologies for the terse reply. Been arguing with idiots for too long. Sorry.

Angle of Attack 10th Jul 2021 07:22

With the hospital admissions and ICU numbers and the current number of cases still in the community, I agree with DirectAnywhere,
deaths will soon start, and with the 2 to three week lag with infection to death cases, and still cases increasing now buckle up for weeks of deaths as a minimum.

Transition Layer 10th Jul 2021 07:43

I can’t believe the rest of the country (including the State Premiers and media outlets) are sitting back and saying NSW should have done this or that sooner. Most States have gotten their response wrong at some point during the pandemic, with differing outcomes. Quarantine leaks due to poor hotel choices, unnecessary lockdowns over single cases, poor or non-existant contact tracing etc etc.

As a country we have done the same thing and looked at other countries around the globe and think we know best. There is no playbook for this, and geography and demographics play a big part in how this virus impacts a nation (or a state).

Comparing WA to NSW and McGowan pointing fingers at Gladys is not really helpful. The arrogance of the guy never ceases to amaze me. Anyone can lock down a sparsely populated city like Perth with minimal high density living and have quick results. Sydney is a different beast altogether!

SOPS 10th Jul 2021 08:48

Why are places like IKEA still open? You can’t eat flat packs.

DirectAnywhere 10th Jul 2021 08:58


Originally Posted by SOPS (Post 11076293)
Why are places like IKEA still open? You can’t eat flat packs.

Agreed. It's too late for a short, sharp lockdown now. They'll be left with a long, sharp lockdown as the only option. They tried to keep non-essential "essential" retail open and it's screwed them.

The list of locations visited by an infectious person on Thursday at Broadway reads like a choose-your-own adventure shopping expedition - Kmart, JB Hi Fi, Coles, ALDI, Harvey Norman and Liquorland.

Chris2303 10th Jul 2021 09:02


Originally Posted by MickG0105 (Post 11076205)
Worth watching but probably needs to be tempered by noting that Professor Kulldorff is a co-author of the Great Barrington Declaration, essentially a push for natural herd immunity through community spread with Focussed Protection for the vulnerable. Kulldorff, a Swede, backed Sweden's broadly Focussed Protection approach to managing COVID-19 and seems to remain wedded to that style of management.

Kulldorff routinely gives out-and-out nonsense oxygen by endorsing or spreading it on social media. His latest foray into the twilight zone is circulating lockdownsceptics.org's hysteria about New Zealand hospitals being 'flooded' with children suffering respiratory illness because lockdowns prevented them from acquiring general immunities through socialising.

The facts of the matter are that there has been an outbreak of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) centred on Wellington, New Zealand. RSV is typically very common in the cooler/colder months and generally affects infants up to two years of age (older children and adults can be affected but most just register it as a cold). RSV infections in New Zealand had been at record lows coming into this outbreak, 98 percent below normal levels. There had been a similar near absence of RSV in Australia over the last 18 months which ended with a spike in March-April this year. Notably in Australia the RSV surges started in New South Wales and Western Australia; two states that had not used lockdowns (as opposed to lockouts) anywhere near as widely as other states during the period prior to the March-April 2021 RSV outbreaks.

The Wellington outbreak is thought to be linked to the opening of travel under the Trans-Tasman Bubble.

Meanwhile in Seattle - not known for it's cold weather at the moment
https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle...rries-parents/

mattyj 10th Jul 2021 09:27

The Gods of the Copybook Headings


AS I PASS through my incarnations in every age and race,
I make my proper prostrations to the Gods of the Market Place.
Peering through reverent fingers I watch them flourish and fall,
And the Gods of the Copybook Headings, I notice, outlast them all.

We were living in trees when they met us. They showed us each in turn
That Water would certainly wet us, as Fire would certainly burn:
But we found them lacking in Uplift, Vision and Breadth of Mind,
So we left them to teach the Gorillas while we followed the March of Mankind.

We moved as the Spirit listed. They never altered their pace,
Being neither cloud nor wind-borne like the Gods of the Market Place,
But they always caught up with our progress, and presently word would come
That a tribe had been wiped off its icefield, or the lights had gone out in Rome.

With the Hopes that our World is built on they were utterly out of touch,
They denied that the Moon was Stilton; they denied she was even Dutch;
They denied that Wishes were Horses; they denied that a Pig had Wings;
So we worshipped the Gods of the Market Who promised these beautiful things.

When the Cambrian measures were forming, They promised perpetual peace.
They swore, if we gave them our weapons, that the wars of the tribes would cease.
But when we disarmed They sold us and delivered us bound to our foe,
And the Gods of the Copybook Headings said: "Stick to the Devil you know."

On the first Feminian Sandstones we were promised the Fuller Life
(Which started by loving our neighbour and ended by loving his wife)
Till our women had no more children and the men lost reason and faith,
And the Gods of the Copybook Headings said: "The Wages of Sin is Death."

In the Carboniferous Epoch we were promised abundance for all,
By robbing selected Peter to pay for collective Paul;
But, though we had plenty of money, there was nothing our money could buy,
And the Gods of the Copybook Headings said: "If you don't work you die."

Then the Gods of the Market tumbled, and their smooth-tongued wizards withdrew
And the hearts of the meanest were humbled and began to believe it was true
That All is not Gold that Glitters, and Two and Two make Four
And the Gods of the Copybook Headings limped up to explain it once more.

As it will be in the future, it was at the birth of Man
There are only four things certain since Social Progress began.
That the Dog returns to his Vomit and the Sow returns to her Mire,
And the burnt Fool's bandaged finger goes wabbling back to the Fire;

And that after this is accomplished, and the brave new world begins
When all men are paid for existing and no man must pay for his sins,
As surely as Water will wet us, as surely as Fire will burn,
The Gods of the Copybook Headings with terror and slaughter return!

Rudyard Kipling 1919

MickG0105 10th Jul 2021 09:43


Originally Posted by Chris2303 (Post 11076303)
Meanwhile in Seattle - not known for it's cold weather at the moment
https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle...rries-parents/

They've been seeing the same thing in Texas - the CDC issued a bulletin on it back in mid-June.

In all those places - Texas, Seattle, New Zealand and here - RSV was largely or entirely absent during the typical 2020, 2020-21 winter season. Some regions of Texas reported a previously unheard of zero RSV cases during their fall/winter season. What do you reasonably expect from a transmissible respiratory illness when you start removing the prophylactic effect of masking and social distancing?


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