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Originally Posted by mattyj
(Post 11085917)
even one death is one too many..we can’t rest until everyone lives forever
:-) |
Ladloy, look up any site that has stats on deaths for the world. It’s all available, for free. Take note of the category of “influenza / pneumonia / respiratory illnesses” and you’ll be surprised at how many die every day. Now compare that to the deaths (globally) due to COVID. Pneumonia is not a virus, its a condition of the lungs, so Covid also causes pneumonia as does the flu, legionaires, etc. The category of flu being put with pneumonia and other respiratory illnesses is that it affects the lower respiratory tract. |
Originally Posted by Icarus2001
(Post 11085920)
Well there it is, twelve people. How many were close to death from other causes?
Couldn't tell you for sure. There was one in their 90s, eight in their 80s, and one each in their 70s, 50s and 30s. Just by the bye, is this "woulda died anyway" discount approach going to be a thing moving forward? We could shave 12.5 percent off the actual road toll numbers by ignoring the 75 years old and overs killed in road accidents. Deaths by suicide would fall by around 7.5 percent if you just took out all the over 75s on the basis that they were on their way out anyway. Roger Dean could probably get his 11 counts of murder knocked down to simple arson.
Originally Posted by Icarus2001
(Post 11085920)
You guys need some perspective, how many people have died this year from flu, diabetes, car crashes, suicides, allergies?
Flu - zero, according to last week's Influenza Surveillance Report. Diabetes - is that died from or died with? That seems to be a popular distinction in some circles these days. Died from, as in diabetes being the underlying cause of death, probably around 2,800 based on historical numbers. Car crashes - 562 or so, but only about 490 if you don't count the 75s and older. Suicides - probably around 1,900 based on historical data, but with your "One foot in the grave" discount only around 1,760. Allergies - as in acute allergic reactions (anaphylaxis), probably only 14 or 15 based on historical information. |
Originally Posted by Icarus2001
(Post 11085920)
You guys need some perspective, how many people have died this year from flu, diabetes, car crashes, suicides, allergies?
This is a massive overreaction by the media and consequently the states. Death from car crashes has long been seen as unacceptable hence the billions spent on ABS, airbags and crash worthiness testing and technology not to mention roads, signage and regulation/enforcement. Fortunately, this investment has been spread over time and recouped by sales, taxes and the opportunity cost of not having hospitals filled with car crash victims and the accompanying loss of productivity. The pandemic is similar yet it needs to be addressed over a much shorter timeframe and the costs are upfront and visible. |
Originally Posted by ScepticalOptomist
(Post 11085936)
4 million or so dead in 16 odd months is a large number until it’s compared to the vast numbers dying every day “without COVID”.
Leaving that aside for the time being, accepting that it's 4.2 million deaths over 16 months or so that's an unweighted annual figure of 3.15 million deaths. To see that sort of increase in annual global deaths would normally take about half a decade, five years. |
I think you're onto something here Mick, Why 75 though, anyone over 60 is a bonafide card carrying senior citizen, so lets not count any of those, then if we seasonally adjust the remaining figures, we come up with very small numbers all round. All we'll need is just a trauma centre instead of an emergency department and a children's hospital. I think we should get Barny onto this.
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Originally Posted by Xeptu
(Post 11085948)
I think you're onto something here Mick, Why 75 though, anyone over 60 is a bonafide card carrying senior citizen, ...
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Originally Posted by MickG0105
(Post 11085949)
Cutting a bit close to the bone there, champ.
Hey Foxster, are you OK, you're looking a bit distressed there mate, I had one of those wobbly moments myself a way back, It'll pass ok. |
In other news .. an update of our Ballina couple. We have a name and a face, and it appears the Flight Attendant is not cooperating with Police and has lawyered up.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-...each/100325698 |
Originally Posted by SOPS
(Post 11085955)
In other news .. an update of our Ballina couple. We have a name and a face, and it appears the Flight Attendant is not cooperating with Police and has lawyered up.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-...each/100325698 Malynda Gray, 36, who also goes by Mel Waterhouse, has been identified as the woman who moved around in south-east Queensland for a week after experiencing Covid symptoms, In 2017 Ms Gray appeared in news reports when she had claimed to have dated Ricky Maddison, who was responsible for the death of Queensland policeman Brett Forte after a shoot-out in May 2017. Maddison fired two full magazines at police cars during a pursuit from Toowoomba to the Lockyer Valley, killing Officer Forte. He was later shot dead by police after a 20-hour siege. Gray was described by media outlets at the time of his death as an ex-girlfriend of Maddison's. 'We were together for a while and in that time he was the most caring person I knew,' she said. 'I don't believe the allegations against him from my loving experiences with him. He used to make me laugh all the time. He was an amazing, caring person.' |
Originally Posted by SOPS
(Post 11085955)
In other news .. an update of our Ballina couple. We have a name and a face, and it appears the Flight Attendant is not cooperating with Police and has lawyered up.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-...each/100325698 Flight attendant behind Covid-19 scare dated Brett Forte’s killer Ricky MaddisonThe identities of a man and woman behind Queensland’s latest Covid-19 scare have been revealed, as a video emerged of the Sydney escapee doing … well, we’re not all that sure.Kate Kyriacou, et al Courier-Mail July 28, 2021 - 11:59AM THE flight attendant at the centre of Queensland’s Covid-19 scare once claimed to have dated cop killer Ricky Maddison, describing him as “the most caring person I know”. Ms Gray was on Tuesday fined $4000 for failing to comply with a border direction after driving Covid-positive Mr Thompson into Queensland on July 14 – resulting in her contracting the virus herself. Mr Thompson, 26, was not supposed to have left Sydney, but f lew to Ballina where he met Ms Gray, who drove him to Tugun and Brisbane. At the time, Mr Thompson had been given a negative test result from a Sydney laboratory, but was later told the result was wrong, which he is alleged to have kept hidden from Queensland authorities. Ms Gray, who works for Qantaslink as a flight attendant, tested positive for coronavirus on July 22, but had felt unwell for about a week. Queensland Health on Thursday night added an additional contact tracing location at Mermaid Waters on the Gold Coast. Black Swan Coffee, Shop 8 Q Super Centre at Mermaid Waters is considered to be a close contact site between 1.40pm and 2pm on Friday, July 23. Queensland Health, which at first believed her infection was a mystery case, later Queensland Health was made aware of his Covid status only after he was identified as a close contact of Ms Gray and put into hotel quarantine. It is understood he was in hotel quarantine for about 24 hours while knowingly infectious before Queensland Health got the results of its own test. On Wednesday, police gave Mr Thompson three infringement notices, alleging he opened the door of his room and “verbally abused” staff – without a mask – after being told he had the virus. “It is alleged after warnings, and with full knowledge of his positive Covid-19 delta strain diagnosis, he continued to open his door while not wearing a face mask,” police said in a statement. Mr Thompson has been fined $4000 for failing to comply with a border direction, $4000 for failing to comply with a Covid-19 direction by providing untrue information. Ms Gray spoke out about her past relationship with Maddison in 2017 when he was killed after a 20-hour siege. Maddison lured police into an ambush near Gatton and opened fire with a machine gun, killing Senior Constable Brett Forte. It is understood Ms Gray was seeing Maddison seven years earlier. “We were together for a while and in that time he was the most caring person I knew,” she said in 2017. “I don’t believe the allegations against him from my loving experiences with him. He used to make me laugh all the time. He was an amazing, caring person.” Probably a safe bet to make that past tense. |
Originally Posted by SOPS
(Post 11085955)
In other news .. an update of our Ballina couple. We have a name and a face, and it appears the Flight Attendant is not cooperating with Police and has lawyered up.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-...each/100325698 |
Originally Posted by DirectAnywhere
(Post 11085963)
Pretty sure Queensland Police and QANTAS can afford better lawyers. Should be fun to watch.
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The only cost that Qantas will wear is paying some payroll person to hit the terminate button.
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Originally Posted by rattman
(Post 11085965)
Whats that qantas lawyer got to do with it
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Originally Posted by ScepticalOptomist
(Post 11085980)
Even in the worst first world jurisdictions that have seen large numbers of deaths the stats are pointing to a resounding “no”.
Originally Posted by ScepticalOptomist
(Post 11085980)
Our individual lives, calculated for risk, have historically been worth orders of magnitude less. ...
An estimate of the value of statistical life that has been discussed here is around $5 million. I've estimated that we've probably spent somewhere between 2 - 3 times that per life notionally saved. A factor of two or three is at least 30 times less than 'orders of magnitude'. |
Lock down was only meant to slow it down while vaccinations took place and protect our health system . Fear and misinformation is out of control . Frustrating to see Australians vaccination rate so low . Spending days discussing a single case , complaining about protestors or not stopping all inbound international arrivals . This thing is here to stay . Time to acknowledge the problem and the best solution and get vaccinated.
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The last couple of deaths sadly have been in their 80s and 90s. News wise, that's it. However, if it's a 30yo sadly then the government
will rant on "see it's just not an old persons disease". Main stream media will rant on it's not an oldies disease as well. That must be emphasised. It's part of public health policy, that faceless mob, to make sure your doubly scared as a Freddy Krueger movie. Whatever it takes to crush this nasty beast, this killing machine into the ground. Surprised they haven't brought back the grim reaper from the dead. That 30sec Poltergeist 4 trailer never cut the mastard |
PM Sco Mo has said no more lockdowns after December! Was there an emergency cabinet meeting today? That’s so thing that’s needed to be run by the 8 premiers running the country.
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Hard to say. I know there's been a cabinet emergency for a while.
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Originally Posted by MickG0105
(Post 11085985)
What stats would they be?
What data supports your contention that lives, calculated for risk, have historically been worth orders of magnitude less? An estimate of the value of statistical life that has been discussed here is around $5 million. I've estimated that we've probably spent somewhere between 2 - 3 times that. A factor of two or three is at least 30 times less than 'orders of magnitude'. |
Originally Posted by ScepticalOptomist
(Post 11086026)
The data differs from your sums. The stats are freely available on government websites. I won’t do the work for you.
The utter implausibility of your "orders of magnitude" claim is easily demonstrated. Using $5 million as the value of a statistical life and a notional 35,000 lives saved, the mitigation expenditure would be $175 billion. When you raise that figure by "orders of magnitude" you get a minimum of $17.5 trillion. That is over ten times our annual GDP. The total aggregated calendar year expenditure for all levels of government - federal, states and territories, and local - does not exceed $1 trillion. See the problem? |
Again, I dips me lid at your exquisite use of language, Mick:
An estimate of the value of statistical life that has been discussed here is around $5 million. I've estimated that we've probably spent somewhere between 2 - 3 times that per life notionally saved. A factor of two or three is at least 30 times less than 'orders of magnitude'. It's of course your estimate of what's probably been "spent". Never an acknowledgement of the costs that you don't measure in dollars because you don't want to. |
Originally Posted by MickG0105
(Post 11086049)
"I don't know." would have saved you a few keystrokes.
… See the problem? |
Originally Posted by Lead Balloon
(Post 11086062)
Again, I dips me lid at your exquisite use of language, Mick
Originally Posted by Lead Balloon
(Post 11086062)
... But...
It's of course your estimate of what's probably been "spent". Never an acknowledgement of the costs that you don't measure in dollars because you don't want to. Now, that's manifestly and demonstrably incorrect, isn't it? In our discussions I was very clear that there are "non-financial" costs that are difficult to convert to properly estimated dollar costs. Remember this? ... let's draw this argy-barge to a close because I do not have the time to be formulating "proper estimates" for non-financials. If you want to compare a speculative 'let it rip' scenario to the actual solution that Australian Governments have pursued, run with a cost of around $450 billion (that's $350 billion for the federal response (including tax revenues foregone), $60 billion for the aggregate state based responses and $40 billion for the 'non-financials'). If that doesn't suit, put your own numbers in. |
Originally Posted by Torukmacto
(Post 11085986)
Lock down was only meant to slow it down while vaccinations took place and protect our health system . Fear and misinformation is out of control . Frustrating to see Australians vaccination rate so low . Spending days discussing a single case , complaining about protestors or not stopping all inbound international arrivals . This thing is here to stay . Time to acknowledge the problem and the best solution and get vaccinated.
How come that the AZ vaccine is deemed to dangerous to use in Australia ? The very same vaccine has been and is being used on millions of people of all ages in the UK with great results. Are people believing the anti vac mumbo jumbo rather than medical advice? |
Originally Posted by cessnapete
(Post 11086112)
Are people believing the anti vac mumbo jumbo rather than medical advice?
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Sacrificing the freedom of the young and working age to save the retired and infirm..
….is this the modern interpretation of throwing virgins into the volcano to guarantee the harvests? |
Originally Posted by cessnapete
(Post 11086112)
How come that the AZ vaccine is deemed to dangerous to use in Australia ? The very same vaccine has been and is being used on millions of people of all ages in the UK with great results.
Are people believing the anti vac mumbo jumbo rather than medical advice? |
Originally Posted by MickG0105
(Post 11086076)
It is most likely the liberal sprinkling of facts and basic mathematics that makes the rhetoric look better.
Now, that's manifestly and demonstrably incorrect, isn't it? In our discussions I was very clear that there are "non-financial" costs that are difficult to convert to properly estimated dollar costs. Remember this? So, to be very clear I most assuredly did acknowledge 'the costs that you don't measure in dollars' and I provided an estimate that went into the calculation. Moreover, I invited you to provide an alternate cost if you didn't like the $40 billion estimate. What does 40,000 lives saved (to go the extremes of the estimate) times $5 million add up to? Maybe we're mixing US billions with Australian billions? |
Originally Posted by StudentInDebt
(Post 11086115)
If the conversation I had with another school dad is anything to go by, very much so.
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People probably think I'm heartless, but I don't see what the big issue is.
Offer The vaccine to everyone, don't force them. Protect the Very few that can't have the vaccine then, get on with life. If people choose not to have the vaccine and they subsequently get sick or die, does it really matter? We always talk about freedom of choice. We are all free to choose many things in life, that doesn't absolve you Of the consequences Of your choice. One could argue that ignoring science because of some article you read on the internet is the same evolutionary misstep as pulling the sabre tooth tiger's tale. Nature will take care of the rest. |
Originally Posted by cLeArIcE
(Post 11086206)
People probably think I'm heartless, but I don't see what the big issue is.
Offer The vaccine to everyone, don't force them. Protect the Very few that can't have the vaccine then, get on with life. If people choose not to have the vaccine and they subsequently get sick or die, does it really matter? We always talk about freedom of choice. We are all free to choose many things in life, that doesn't absolve you Of the consequences Of your choice. One could argue that ignoring science because of some article you read on the internet is the same evolutionary misstep as pulling the sabre tooth tiger's tale. Nature will take care of the rest. |
Mick, I will choose one just to show how wrong you are.
Car crashes - 562 or so, but only about 490 if you don't count the 75s and older. https://www.bitre.gov.au/publication...thly_bulletins |
https://www.news.com.au/national/nsw...217096dc988538
This is getting so out of control. Gladys HAS to bite the bullet and enforce a proper and hard lockdown. She has to stop half way measures. I think her future is doomed …. And she will take the Federal Libs along with her. https://www.news.com.au/national/nsw...c92242160e03a8 |
Originally Posted by Xeptu
(Post 11086232)
it is also dependant on there being no change to the virus itself, should there be a breakout strain, (roughly every 6 months) ,
A new version of the flu vaccine is currently released every 6 months to coincide with the Northern and Southern Hemisphere winters. No reason why a COVID booster couldn’t be released along the same time frame in the future. The problem is getting it into peoples arms. For that we need to move away from the complex and overly bureaucratic rollout with the current vaccine. Major employers should be able to offer it direct to their staff in the workplace. Schools could give it at school (like other vaccines already). We could even set up mass walk in clinics in the major shopping centres!! Go get your groceries and walk out vaccinated!! Most of these processes already exist for all the other vaccines we get. I don’t see why the COVID vaccine should be any different. I’m sure we will get there, Australia just has to reinvent the wheel first. :ugh::ugh: |
Originally Posted by cLeArIcE
(Post 11086206)
People probably think I'm heartless, but I don't see what the big issue is.
Offer The vaccine to everyone, don't force them. Protect the Very few that can't have the vaccine then, get on with life. If people choose not to have the vaccine and they subsequently get sick or die, does it really matter? We always talk about freedom of choice. We are all free to choose many things in life, that doesn't absolve you Of the consequences Of your choice. One could argue that ignoring science because of some article you read on the internet is the same evolutionary misstep as pulling the sabre tooth tiger's tale. Nature will take care of the rest. If too few choose the get the vaccine even though it's available, there's a real risk that the medical system will be overwhelmed by the Covid sick when we (not if, we have no choice but to) 'let it rip', thus crowding out the vaccinated from the 'normal' activities of the medical system. It's pretty difficult getting proper emergency assistance after serious injury in an accident, if every ICU bed is full of the Covid sick and staff have to shuffle around in Hazmat outfits. That's why there's an ongoing discussion about what percentage of the population has to be vaccinated before it's sensible to 'let it rip'. And let's hope there's enough 'agility' in the mRNA technology to keep up. The Omega strain is going to be very ugly. |
Originally Posted by SOPS
(Post 11086329)
https://www.news.com.au/national/nsw...217096dc988538
This is getting so out of control. Gladys HAS to bite the bullet and enforce a proper and hard lockdown. She has to stop half way measures. I think her future is doomed …. And she will take the Federal Libs along with her. https://www.news.com.au/national/nsw...c92242160e03a8 Proof Sydney more restricted than Melbournehttps://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/?...-carey.png&r=gAlexis CareyMelbourne's brutal 2020 lockdown made headlines around the world – but new mobility data reveals Sydney's current lockdown has been more effective in keeping residents at home. According to the Daily Telegraph, the data was prepared by the state government for NSW's crisis cabinet, and it shows that on average, Sydneysiders are spending more time at home during the current lockdown than Melburnians did during theirs. “When you look at the objective data, Sydney is staying home more compared to Melbourne in the similar stages of their lockdown last year,” Customer Services Minister Victor Dominello told the publication. |
Originally Posted by turbantime
(Post 11086185)
Take away the opportunity to go to a pub/restaurant/concert or any interstate/overseas travel and watch their tune change pretty quickly.
She told me that in 10 years of being in her position there have only been 3 families that would not get their kids vaccinated. She said of all the others who didnt want to they soon changed their mind when they realised they would not be able to have their kids attend a childcare centre. |
Originally Posted by Lead Balloon
(Post 11086420)
The flaw in your reasoning is that it will be hospitals and their ICUs that "take care of the rest" until nature takes its course.
If too few choose the get the vaccine even though it's available, there's a real risk that the medical system will be overwhelmed by the Covid sick when we (not if, we have no choice but to) 'let it rip', thus crowding out the vaccinated from the 'normal' activities of the medical system. It's pretty difficult getting proper emergency assistance after serious injury in an accident, if every ICU bed is full of the Covid sick and staff have to shuffle around in Hazmat outfits. |
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