Then let him languish in solitary so that he can exercise his "freedoms". They don't want to follow government directions during a health crisis yet will appeal their rights to another pillar of democracy. Breaking the law has consequences.

No, you haven't. Others here have.

That is exactly what I have advocated previously.

. Added bolding to original.

Excellent!

Melbourne did well protecting its regions and the rest of the country in the back half of last year, barely one single leak.

I am concerned as she clearly is trying to save face by not adhering Dans advice by keeping metro/regional apart, and the rest of us next month around the nation or soon will suffer the consequences of that. Not to mention the good folks of regional NSW.

Her treasurer would be better knifing her now rather than waiting till next year, and get these decisions done. Saving face now avoided.

oh I am glad others have noticed Dominic not so subtly positioning himself in the background. He made sure it was leaked he was against the extended lockdown though back in early July which he thought was a popular stance to take then but maybe not so much now given how things have played out.

but yes, it’s a matter of when not if he becomes leader of the nsw libs. I think Gladys may move aside early next year once, hopefully the worst of this ****storm is behind us. You can bet though that every stumble she makes is being clapped by some. Not just on the other side of the political fence.

meanwhile at the Olympics, the ENTIRE Australian track and field squad has been put into isolation due to a member of another country’s team who was training nearby testing positive.

No chance. Day 13 tests after contact appear to be a common positive test result point, combined with the fact that the event being only 5 days ago - and NSW tests results running way behind a day after testing, aaand NSW test result cutoff being 8pm yesterday, we are still to see any impact the nuffs have had on Sydney’s outbreak.

Every time the West has had a lock down, Perth has been shut off from the regions. During one lock, there were even borders within regions to help ensure no spread. I don’t know what Gladys is trying to do, but it’s not working.

probably trying not to appear racialist. We must be culturally sensitive you know. Language barriers and they are much more family focused. Nothing to do with blatantly sticking their middle fingers up…

oh, for the woke and snowflakes, some.. but it only takes a few, or a few hundred or thousand who are just like that. 50 going to one house after a death. 46 positive. For example.

NSW Police have just asked the Feds to bring in the Army. Perhaps it is the Day of the Triffids.

good band,

Some of the States use the Defence Force all the time when there's a lockdown. It's not Marshal Law though, they are not armed. When they do quarantine compliance checks (knock on your door) instead of two police officers, it's one and one. It works, you get a lot more boots on the ground.

I hope their armed , most of the residents in those areas are .

The police officer is, oddly enough, people seem to be less threatened by the presence of a soldier than a police officer,

Unless he's SAS........:p

Oh dear.

Just heard some expert on the radio talking about some analysis that shows that even with 80% of Australia's population vaccinated, the number of cases arising from the unvaccinated would still overwhelm ICU capacity, which is around 7,500 beds at full 'surge capacity'. (Mick: Please track down the source and quote the facts and conclusions.)

So, it seems Australia needs to increase the number of ICU beds, not by orders of magnitude but a sh*t tonne extra wouldn't go astray.

But wait, we don't have the capacity to train enough doctors and nurses to run the extra ICUs.

Solution: The solution for all economic seasons. Immigration! We'll import the extra doctors and nurses. Too easy! And that'll also keep the demand on housing and increase house prices. Sweet!

But wait, we've shut the borders.

Solution: We'll bring all the extra doctors and nurses in (without their families of course) as a matter of priority (but only temporarily of course) and put them into super-secure, leak-proof quarantine facilities for a few weeks.

Oh dear.

Sorry but if its their choice to remain unvaccinated for no vailid medical reason then they should not take an ICU bed in front of someone who has been vaccinated or is young and not yet elligible for a vax or is unable to get a vax for valid non religious reasons.

Yep. When the ambulance screeches to a halt at the door of the emergency department of the hospital, they'll add "have you chosen not to be vaccinated for Covid 19" to the existing list of questions asked in deciding whether to provide or refuse treatment to someone in a medical crisis.

Remind me of the existing list of questions asked by a hospital in deciding whether to admit or refuse someone who can't breathe to the emergency department.

Double vaccination in Israel - the most vaccinated country in the world - Efficacy against Delta only 42%..............

Mick: On your definition of "efficacy", is the efficacy against Delta in Israel 42% for those double vaccinated against Covid 19?

you forgot the other bit..

Pfizer and BioNTech’s Covid-19 vaccine is just 39% effective in Israel where the delta variant is the dominant strain,


However, the two-dose vaccine still works very well in preventing people from getting seriously sick, demonstrating 88% effectiveness against hospitalization and 91% effectiveness against severe illness, according to the Israeli data published Thursday.

however yes, the vaccine appears to be less effective probably because of..


Data released by the Health Ministry last week suggested that people vaccinated in January have just 16% protection against infection now, while in those vaccinated in April, the effectiveness was at 75%.

so over time the vaccines are becoming SIGNIFICANTLY less effective and in quite a short space of time. Only 6 or 7 months. Which probably means TWICE yearly boosters. But I am no virus expert. So perhaps a third shot lasts longer??


given supply issues of Pfizer and equally important the logistics of vaccinating the entire or 70%, 80% of the population. This appears to becoming an endless merry go round. Without the merry bit.

A one way ticket to Mars is looking more and more appealing

It probably prevents deaths..but it doesn’t prevent infection or transmission..so it’s not a vaccine, it’s a therapy.

otherwise it’s great..gst stuck in.
Americans are mandating masks again even for the vaccinated. This will never end.

Not all bad news actually. The study was on a small sample. I think it is a watch this space, and maybe cross fingers a bit.

https://www.salon.com/2021/07/28/pfi...iveness-fluke/

Mystery case just found in Vic, short, sharp, snap, quick lockdown number 6 is coming to quash this highly virulent fast moving, deadly, never seen before Delta virus. Can’t mess around with delta. NSW will soon release its own virulent strain Gamma.

Well this is encouraging...:yuk:March 2022 if we don't vaccinate children in school - and that's assuming we can get to 80% in the adult population too, something that seems increasingly unlikely if the surveys of the younger generations are anything to go by...

Loos like another 11 months on Leave Without Pay. Got the letter from Centerlink today saying they'd rejected my Covid Disaster Payment claim - apparently they don't recognize FIFO employees as being affected by the Sydney lockdown or border restrictions...:rolleyes: :ugh:

well I guessed this time next year for 80%… and see above on how the vaccines appear to rapidly lose their effectiveness. That is a wait and see while they do a wider study. But still.

I’m gonna wait until the first booster comes out and just get that..because I’m outside the box dude

It's not my definition. Per the diagram below there are a variety of endpoints for measuring efficacy. The Israeli number is for infection, likely symptomatic infection. From a public health perspective the most important efficacy endpoint is protection against severe disease and death.
https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....957489fad6.jpg


Protection against severe disease is typically measured by hospitalisation rates and ICU admission rates. On those efficacy endpoints both Pfizer and AstraZeneca are proving to be around 90 percent effective. I haven't refreshed the numbers recently but last week, Israel had 11,200 active cases but only 101 hospitalisations and 24 ICU admissions. Out of that case load they were only seeing one or two deaths a day.

That is an extraordinary improvement over their pre-vaccine experience. The pre-vaccination hospitalisation rate in Israel ran at about 15 percent; a week ago is it was less than one tenth of that (that is, one order of magnitude better) at around 1 percent.

While not perfect, the seat-belt analogy might be appropriate - compared to not wearing one, your risk of serious injury or death is markedly lower. I don't know how many people who walk away from what would otherwise be a fatal prang and complain about the sore shoulder and the bruising across their midriff as an indicator of poor efficacy.

Great.

So, is "the efficacy against Delta in Israel 42% for those double vaccinated against Covid 19?"

Seems like a third shot is highly effective. The Israel figures showing low effectiveness are based on a very small study. More work required.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/a...a-variant.html

Okey doke, I don't know where they got 7,500 ICU beds as the surge capacity. The generally accepted of figure is about 7,000 (source).

I'm struggling to see how we would overwhelm that with such a high vaccination rate, 80 percent of Australia's population vaccinated roughly equates to 100 percent of the adult population vaccinated. Even assuming that they meant 80 percent of the adult population vaccinated, that's still a high number.

If you take the recent UK experience (possibly in its early days at this point) in their 70-odd percent of the adult population fully vaccinated world, they have seen case prevalence (active cases as a proportion of population) probably peak at 1.61 percent (1.1 million active cases). If we were to see something similar here in our notional highly vaccinated world that would see us at around 417,000 active cases (presently we have less than 3,000 active cases).

The present hospitalisation burden in the UK is 6,000-odd admissions with ICU admissions running at around 850. In other words, in the UK they are currently seeing a hospitalisation rate of less than 1.5 percent, with ICU admissions running at a vanishing low 0.2 percent. Based on those rates we would have to see 3.5 million active cases to fill 7,000 ICU beds. That translates to a case prevalence of around 13.5 percent - unheard of, worse than the prevalence of malaria in India, it would be the equivalent of at least every left hander in the country being an active case and then some.

If we look at Israel, a somewhat more matured post-vaccination example, they currently have about 15,000 active cases for a case prevalence of 0.17 percent. Their current hospitalisation burden is just 280-odd admissions with about 35 of those in ICUs. That is a hospitalisation rate of nearly 2 percent (assuring not dissimilar to the UK) and an ICU admission rate of 0.23 percent (again, assuringly similar to the UK). Those Israeli numbers would yield the same sort of utterly ridiculous required case prevalence rate here to fill 7,000 ICU beds.

In fact, if you want to look at just our baseline ICU bed capacity of around 2,400 beds, based on the UK and Israeli experience, we would need to see 960,000 active cases to fill those beds. That's a case prevalence rate of 3.72 percent. On the US's very worst day with a largely unvaccinated population they only hit a prevalence rate of 2.7 percent. On the UK's very worst day, again with a largely unvaccinated population, they still didn't hit 3 percent case prevalence.

I'm pretty sure that I'd be calling bullsh^t on said expert on the radio's claim.

See above. In Israel a recently released study based on an unspecified number of people shows Pfizer to have a 40-odd percent rate of efficacy against symptomatic infection with the delta-variant and a 90-odd percent rate of efficacy against serious illness.

Note the efficacy endpoint being addressed - efficacy in preventing any Covid-19 infection that causes even minor symptoms.

Also, bear in mind that at the start of the pandemic, when we had no treatment and no vaccines ,the discourse on vaccines was that vaccine with 50% efficacy in preventing death would be worthwhile.
The fact that they are in the 90% range against the original variant has exceeded all expectations.

Approx 26 Mill people in Oz, how many only in ICU because of this so called deadly virus?......be afraid!-)
less than 35000 known cases of a nasty flu virus, how many have recovered?.......be afraid!-)

Fatality rate 10-20 times higher than the flu, massive increase in excess mortality, much higher risk of complications than the flu, higher rate and duration of ventilation.

NSW is already cancelling elective surgery as ICUs are filling up. That’s with 2500 active cases. NSW has a population similar to Sweden, favourite of the “let it rip” brigade, and they were at 200k active cases at their peak. NSW has 60 already in the ICU with a total of 900 ICU beds, which are generally close to full with the expected users during normal times.

What do you think the capacity is going to be like if active cases get beyond 2500?

And you forgot the bit where the US and UK studies show its 70-88% effective, theres still no cut and dried answers to this sort of the stuff

US studies show intial effecacy of 96% and overtime decreasing to 64%, same range for moderna as well. Both are RDNA, us doesn't use AZ

And heres one from france in peer review atm
https://theconversation.com/covid-st...ll-work-164351

Yes there are less effective against delta but 39% seems a outler compared to others

Well done, Mick! You passed my test.

It was a chap from the Doherty Institute. He did in fact say "7,000" ICU beds rather than 7,500 and his comments about them still being overwhelmed were in relation to 50% of the population being vaccinated rather than 80%. The Institute's modelling supports a relaxation of restrictions at 80% (but 90% for some demographics).

Will be interesting to hear what comes out of the 'National Cabinet' today.

which is what I said in that and subsequent posts. I even posted in my subsequent comment a link to an article that goes into some detail about the Israeli numbers and casts doubt on the low number in that study. And also a link about the uk in relation to a third Pfizer dose which also contains uk efficiency numbers. I suggest you read those. It seems like more work needs doing on the Israeli number as it was a very small sample. And as someone else pointed out, it depends what effectiveness you are measuring against. Any infection no matter how mild or against serious infection requiring hospitalisation or causing death. The vaccines do seem very effective against the latter two, but there does appear to be potentially a drop off in effectiveness, potentially greater than might have been expected.

Currently 33,700 cases vs 922 deaths is 2.7% mortality rate, complication rate is as high as 25%. 1 in 40 death rate if you like.

Flu is currently 36 from 22,000 cases, which equals 0.01% mortality rate, complication rate almost 1%. 1 in 1000 death rate.

Meanwhile, another study on blood clots from Pfizer versus AstraZeneca shows they both have the same rate. However, people getting Pfizer were on average older and had more underlying conditions so who knows…,I hope we don’t get a GREAT BIG SCARE CAMPAIGN against Pfizer now like we have had against AstraZeneca.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...udy-finds.html