there should be NO measures when we have high vaccination rates. NONE.

When you allow governments to see that semi-authoritarian measures will be accepted by the people, why would they stop? Even here in the UK with 70% of the adult population now fully vaccinated and 88% of the adult population having at least one dose, a considerable section of the scientific community wanting perpetual restrictions. One prominent group not wanting to open schools in March and then still have restrictions until EVERYONE including kids are vaccinated.

I'm 100% pro vaccine, but you have to give the population at large the carrot. Because there will be the need for boosters. If a vaccine doesn't equal reopening, people will not come out to get it.

Except if you consider the results of the UK, with current vaccination percentages, cases & deaths, and apply them to Australia you'll get:
UK Figures - Source
88% have had their first dose
70% have had their second dose
29,000 people tested positive today and;
28 people died

The "equivalent" Australian figures:
11,000 new cases and;
10 deaths.

So, given previous statements and actions by respective Governments in Australia - of all persuasions - does anyone honestly thing that (no restrictions) will occur? If you do, I've got a bridge with an awesome view I can sell you cheap...

U might also look at the uk for the possible or likely future of international travel, regarding testing, and what happens if you test positive while away, the cost, the traffic light system which like our borders can change or lockdown overnight. And the queues on arrival due to various reasons like their track and trace app. Don’t think the road back to international travel is going to be quick.

what will happen and what SHOULD happen are often not the same.

but if we get to those rates and Gladys brings in another lockdown then there will be more than 5000 protesting, and I will be one of them. And I am tired of every friggin death being reported. 28 died in the uk in a day of WuHu flu. How many die of normal flu in the uk per day. Were ANY of those deaths EVER reported on an individual basis.

Around 1500 people per day. The UK is currently below its average annual death rate for 2021.

I'm well aware, I don't think any of the states are all that prepared, they don't want to spend the money on something that might not happen.

Just like to compare a few facts.
This time last year Melbourne was in Lockdown 2.
On this day last year 26/07/20, Melbourne recorded 453 cases and 10 deaths. Melbourne averaged about 15 deaths per day throughout the lockdown period.
Today with this real beast of a strain called Delta, Sydney record 145 cases 51 in community, 2 deaths, 10 in total since the lockdown started.
That's by eyeballing the graphs on worldometers, and add Sydney's claytons lockdown compared to Melbourne.

What do make of that. Comparatively shouldn't deaths be at least 20 a day. Which proves the Delta is not as deadly as the Wuhan.
Could of fooled me. Therefore I can conclude, the words spoken at every press conference are nothing but a fear, shock and awe show.
I have just put the entire NSW health department (the one Gladys relies on) in check, by just looking at a graph open to all.

What do anniversary dates have to do with your comparison? The delta strain mortality rate may indeed be lower, but since deaths lag cases by a few weeks it is too early to tell. Also the current outbreak may be infecting a different demographic since lots of the really vulnerable have in fact been vaccinated.

Either way, I cannot see lockdowns once we have passed some (arbitrary, politically expedient) vaccination uptake. In our well-intentioned drive to zero cases we have set the stage for covid hysteria and given the government a really convenient threat to protect us from.

Really. Are you sure that’s not per year?
https://www.ons.gov.uk/aboutus/trans...0182019and2020

I thought 1500 a day sounded like a lot!!!

Sorry I read that wrong - I meant 1500 a day of all causes. Because at the end of the day, every death is tragic regardless of the cause.

A lot of statisticians will be comparing anniversaries with last years figures domestically and worldwide. I try another in 4 weeks time then.

that’s not true..everyone dies..including you. I will give you a 100% guarantee.

If every death is a tragedy, then life isn’t worth living

The second Melbourne lockdown went for 112 days, so that can't be the daily average. A little less than half that, say 7.25 deaths per day would be closer to the mark.

A couple of things to bear in mind here. It's pointless comparing dates twelve months apart when they fall on different places on the case count curve. Further, when Melbourne did go into lockdown the daily case counts were already in three figures; they were much further along the case count curve than where Sydney is presently.

Finally, if you were seeing 10 deaths from 453 cases last year why would you now be expecting to see 20 deaths from 145 cases - that's a better than sixfold increase in the case fatality rate. ​​​​​​​

Turnleft080

As someone else said the demographics are very different in this NSW outbreak.
VIC had many in aged care and unvaccinated. NSW has managed to shield them / vaccinate them.

There are roughly the same amount of ICU patients currently admitted in NSW as there was in VICs PEAK last year.

The delta strain may be less lethal (?), but is proving more transmissible.

MickG0105 & novice
Fair enough. Just trying to compare the Wuhan/Melbourne & Delta/Sydney. Realise different demographics,
I'm guessing less cases and less deaths when SYD get to 112 days. (all hoping < 112 lockdown of course)

The delta strain may be less lethal (?), but is proving more transmissible.
I guess thats better than more lethal and less transmissible.

Don’t know about that. The delta numbers show that its more than twice as contagious, but its hard to compare mortality since there are increasing numbers of the vaccinated which would skew the mortality rates lower. One thing is clear is that covid is going to become an affliction of the unvaccinated, and that cohort will suffer higher risk and higher mortality than ever (in this country) because eventually lockdowns will end, and devil takes the hindmost.

Taiwan's been having problems containing the Alpha strain.

Taiwan exits lockdown

Soooo - In Victoria, from midnight - you are not allowed to go visit your relatives (or anyones) household, BUT you can go to a restaurant or pub!!!! So you can meet your family for dinner in a restaurant with up to 40 people. Makes sense ....:ugh:

Meanwhile Gladys is about to open up various parts of Sydney. It’s what the people want apparently.

Reports coming out now, of the TNT freight Hub in Sydney now closed as Delta has ripped right through it.

At this rate Kingsford Smith is done until we hit that magical vaccination number. She can be as vocal as she wants around the border, the others are not even going to flinch until she gets weeks of zero. The consequences of that is pretty grim for this Industry and it’s good people. Sydney is done for this year.

Sydney is done until end of November unless, ppl start hooking into Astra Zeneca supply. Lets see is these so called freedom mob who rioted on the weekend for the freedom of all of us take up this opportunity to show us he way.

Gladys better enforce an extreme lock down right now. Otherwise Sydney and possibly NSW is doomed.

https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....efaa2a37c5.gif

Well some of the comments I read on social media, the people of Sydney already believe this lock down is worse than last yr and is unbearable Gladys cant possibly go any harder. If you go any harder they'll blow.

My personal opinion, I think Gladys know she has F@#ked it, the speed boat is out of sight and now for her to open up will be the vaccination rate. Gladys is making an announcement tomorrow of her opening up plan, you all read it here first, I bet a vaccination target will be announced to ease restriction. Honestly no other way for NSW to get out of this mess.

Unfortunate for Aviation it will do no good if NSW gets to the target she will announce, I bet the other states will be no where near their targets and they will not open to NSW.

I think most states won’t care at all about her vaccination target. If the case numbers there remain above single digits NSW will remain cut off.

A higher vaccination level might get the state moving to themselves, but not to anyone else.

She did try that dialogue the other week, in regards to having volume of active transmission in the long term, and then pushing ‘we are all one’ and expect the other states to join the transmission party. Needless to say she was shot down by old mate out West a few hours later.

Like flying past your PNR, no way back. Let it rip Gladys. Just let it rip. The quicker it spreads, the quicker your herd immunity will occur. If everyone did the appropriate
thing to take control of your own health (not the premier, not the CHO, not your doctor) but you. YOU YOU YOU. You got enough elderly vaccinated, so just let it rip. Sure you will get some hospitalisations and ICUs
though millions will be A-symptomatic even without you knowing you got covid. What makes you think all the other states are clean. Their could be hundreds of A-symptomatic out their just not getting tested.
Lockdowns are like trying to fix the Hoover Dam with band aids. At some stage it's going to go bang.

OK, I will be nice now, keep your distance 1.5m, wash your hands jeffery, practice deep breathing with your mask on with that disposable your been wearing for a week.
Just about to put on the bullet proof jacket, you can shoot me now.

You forgot the eat garlic part.

Can't mention those sort of thing SOPS, it's all taboo.

That day has to come. It will come.

With currently circa 2000 infected in latest outbreak, there have been 12 deaths. That’s 6 per thousand (with all sick getting all getting the ICU care they need).

if you do it today with 10% vaxed that’s 4.5m unvaxed in Greater Sydney.

With 6 per thousand deatht rates you’re looking at 25,000 dying, and that’s not including overloaded health care system.

Do you take that risk?

As the vaccine is rolled out the nation needs to have the conversation as to what is expected once all those that are going to be vaccinated, have been.
Currently the expectation is zero community transmission.
Is the expectation that will remain the case. International travel is on you, except to re-enter you must not be infectious and vaccinated.
Or
No restrictions regardless of infection rate

Our inept prime minister can’t and won’t have that conversation. Zero is the number most of these premiers want. I bet lord McGoose won’t accept anything above zero even with 100% vaccination rate.

There are green shoots of that discussion, not just in the shock jock world, but in other channels. Even in the NSW gov't at the start of this latest outbreak but it got quickly squashed. I've been trying to have it for a while with friends and family, but only recently getting traction, probably as the vaccination rate is slowly climbing

IMHO Gladys will not survive this unscathed. She has a few options:

1. Keeps the current lockdowns that seem to stem the exponential rise of cases but would need to keep it same until the end of the year when vax rates are getting to 70%
2. Goes full bore on the lockdown for a month, no-one can do anything except get food and then on certain days etc. only 1 person out of the house. Nothing else, nada.
3. Let it rip. No lockdown, no restrictions and have the deaths of thousands as your legacy because you didn't do it the way others did it.

None are pretty.

only 16% fully vaxed. 1000s will die.

well put, agree 100% The biggest issue if fear, so many out there living in fear, exactly what the lunatic Premiers want!

That death toll may well be cheaper than having the nations biggest city locked down. Read this morning the Sydney lockdown alone is $220,000,000 per day! Victoria is $150,000,000. At $5.0M per life (for a healthy young adult) that's 44 deaths per day (NSW) and 30 Vic equivalent cost - assuming every death is a healthy, young(ish) taxpayer, not some old duck in their 80's or 90's like the vast majority have been and who are now, mostly, vaccinated.

How long until someone decides it's worth it?

No matter if "they" do, SHVC is spot on with his assertion:
They have set this unrealistic goal and now have to stick to it, having built their entire reelection campaigns on the "But only I kept you safe!" mantra - which the UK is showing to be a false prophecy. Despite vaccinations, despite lockdowns, you will still have cases, you will still have deaths. The goal of absolute zero Covid, while admirable, is like zero fatalities in flying, It's a target, a wish, we all aspire to achieve it, but it'll never happen.

Well looks like another month lockdown for sydney

but construction will be allowed but with capacity limits
people living alone will be allowed another person to visit them, ie a friend

royal prince Alfred hospital is turning ambulances away right now due to a developing covid situation.

I'm not sure that's right, I don't know anyone living in fear and some of those have actually been infected, pre vaccine.
It is fair to say we are "fearful" of what may be coming next (breakout strain), that's not the same thing.

It would not be fair to let it rip yet , considering most under 40s have not had access to the vaccine.