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MH370 - "new" news

Old 23rd Dec 2022, 02:45
  #221 (permalink)  
 
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This is a long thread. I looked back through it and don’t see anything that looks promising in
the way of answers to what happened. Nothing. It has been almost nine years and the mystery is still a mystery. No one has any idea what happened or why aside from guesses, theories and speculation. I can certainly understand why you see me as one more wingnut with a new one.

Someone somewhere has to know something. This disaster took place at the culmination of a series of events that drove an apparently normal, intelligent and logical man to commit suicide and mass murder. He was not an introvert. He was in fact, an open book with an online presence and plenty of friends.

I don’t see much about him or his final days on this thread, in spite of the fact he is the only
suspect. And if you don’t think he did it, where is the serious and in depth discussion of why he should be considered innocent. Where is the serious and in depth discussion about anything?

That is certainly no mystery to me. Trying to start one has generated no end of ridicule and scorn.
I came here believing there would be people with a real interest if finding out what happened and why. I want you to see what I see and tell me what you think. Maybe I am wrong, but tell me that after you look. What have you got to lose?
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Old 23rd Dec 2022, 04:20
  #222 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Andy_S
I think there was a history of mental illness with the perpetrator of the GermanWings crash.

It's been suggested that if, as has been speculated, the Captain of MH370 had taken control of the flight and deliberately navigated it to the Southern Indian Ocean, his motivations were very different. If all you want to do is kill yourself, there are easier ways to do it. But if you want to leave behind a huge mystery and maybe cause enormous embarrassment to a government you are bitterly opposed to, then it makes sense.
Do you know why he was opposed to the government? It was their airline that employed him.
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Old 23rd Dec 2022, 04:23
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I came here believing there would be people with a real interest if finding out what happened and why. I want you to see what I see and tell me what you think. Maybe I am wrong, but tell me that after you look. What have you got to lose?
Well, lets see what you've got, stating you know but not telling is not a way to initiate a conversation. If a prior post telling the story was deleted please PM me what you have.
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Old 23rd Dec 2022, 04:33
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OK. the previous post asks Andy S if he knows why the pilot was so opposed to the government. Do you?
Yes or no is fine. Be patient please, but how much you know is important. It is not a short story and if it had to be
told from scratch we would be here a very long time.
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Old 23rd Dec 2022, 04:54
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Originally Posted by AerialPerspective
Could you please consider punctuation, it's hard to tell with all those lower case letters whether you've accidentally hit return and it's a continuation of the previous sentence or a new one.
Sorry, I'll tend to use it more.

Originally Posted by ferry pilot
OK. the previous post asks Andy S if he knows why the pilot was so opposed to the government. Do you?
Yes or no is fine. Be patient please, but how much you know is important. It is not a short story and if it had to be
told from scratch we would be here a very long time.
He was opposed to the government for the same reasons most Russians are opposed to their government. Now imagine a Russian pilot going rogue, would he try to land in another country and request asylum or suicide himself and 200 passengers?
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Old 23rd Dec 2022, 04:56
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Originally Posted by ferry pilot
OK. the previous post asks Andy S if he knows why the pilot was so opposed to the government. Do you?
Yes or no is fine. Be patient please, but how much you know is important. It is not a short story and if it had to be
told from scratch we would be here a very long time.

Oh for FFS, stop talking in riddles and spit it out, or go away.

Yes, the pilot was opposed to the government. He was politically active in Anwar Ibrahim's People's Justice Party, had met the man several times, was supposedly related to him, and was extremely upset when Anwar's acquittal on sodomy charges was overturned and he was sentenced to jail.

Last edited by BuzzBox; 23rd Dec 2022 at 05:09.
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Old 23rd Dec 2022, 05:03
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Ah. So the 'real' story is that the pilot intended to fly to Australia, to seek asylum and embarrass the Malaysian government, but something went wrong out over the Indian Ocean.

*yawn*
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Old 23rd Dec 2022, 05:42
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OK so you know what the court case was all about. and the fact the pilot was upset by the verdict. Perhaps you also know why he was upset.
The sodomy conviction had been overturned., and for quite some time it looked like there would be a more open acceptance of alternate lifestyles.
The pilot, protected by his union, may have been less discreet during this time and increased the animosity between himself and his employer, the government owned airline. It is quite possible they had quietly built a case against him similar to the one his friend was once again facing prison for when the government won their appeal.
If this seems credible to you then we can move on with rest of it. Almost done

Thanks for chiming in here. Sorry I was so hesitant but when I first tried to get this out right after it happened the lid came down so fast I hardly got started.

Last edited by ferry pilot; 23rd Dec 2022 at 06:23.
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Old 23rd Dec 2022, 06:21
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Originally Posted by Lead Balloon
Ah. So the 'real' story is that the pilot intended to fly to Australia, to seek asylum and embarrass the Malaysian government, but something went wrong out over the Indian Ocean.

*yawn*
I don't claim it's the real story, just one of the possibilities which is not being considered because people are so blindfolded by suicide theory. Majority of plane hijacks didn't go according to plan but somehow this one had to.
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Old 23rd Dec 2022, 07:00
  #230 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by BuzzBox
I'm curious to see where you intend going with this. At a heavy weight of about 210 T, the descent point from FL340 would be about 130 NM from Penang.
The TOPD from FL340 in nil wind, for 210T, is approximately 130 NM from the airport.

If we now look at the potential diversion to BANDA ACEH, then at the last primary radar position, approximately 10 NM north-west of MEKAR at 1822:12, the aircraft is 110.4 nautical track miles from Banda Aceh via NILAM-SANOB ie it is past TOPD.

If everyone was deceased at TOPD, then the autopilot mode changed to VNAV ALT, maintained FL340, and the serviceable right Autothrottle reduced speed to 267 KIAS (268 CAS for MH370).

Given the known winds (010T/3kts) and ISA deviation (+10.9), then the groundspeed has reduced from 498 knots to approximately 458 knots.

The SATCOM logged on again at 1825:27, therefore from the last radar point it has travelled 24.8 NM, thus on the LNAV route it is approximately 2 NM west of NILAM turning left to SANOB through heading 262T. The track to the Indian Ocean satellite at this point is 262T.

Therefore, without any human intervention, it is highly likely that the SATCOM could finally commence its log on, when it automatically switched from the inoperative left HGA to the right HGA, which is now exposed to the satellite on the right side of the fuselage!
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Old 23rd Dec 2022, 07:13
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Originally Posted by ferry pilot
If this seems credible to you then we can move on with rest of it.
I guess it’s as credible as some of the other theories. Is there any evidence?
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Old 23rd Dec 2022, 07:18
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For the sake of whatever deity/ies you worship, GBO, will you stop treating TOPD as some kind of immutable and immovable outcome of some holy manual? It's not the Bible or whatever equivalent document you thumb through to avoid going to whatever bad place you imagine you could go.

When a real pilot in the real world is "overwhelmed and bombarded with ... systems failures" - your words - the first thing the pilot will do, after recovering from the HSM, is point the f*cker downhill in the general direction of a friendly piece of tarmac. The first thing, that is, if the pilot wants to save the aircraft and POB as quickly as practicable. TOPD calculations? Please: Give it a break.
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Old 23rd Dec 2022, 09:39
  #233 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Lead Balloon

When a real pilot in the real world is "overwhelmed and bombarded with ... systems failures" - your words - the first thing the pilot will do, after recovering from the HSM, is point the f*cker downhill in the general direction of a friendly piece of tarmac. The first thing, that is, if the pilot wants to save the aircraft and POB as quickly as practicable. TOPD calculations? Please: Give it a break.
MH370 conducted a 180 degree turn, descended 1000 feet to the appropriate hemispherical cruising level, headed to the nearest suitable airport, and did not descend for 23 minutes.

QF1 conducted a 180 degree turn, descended 1000 feet to the appropriate hemispherical cruising level, headed to the nearest suitable airport, and did not descend for 23 minutes.

Last edited by GBO; 23rd Dec 2022 at 10:38.
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Old 23rd Dec 2022, 11:09
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Originally Posted by GBO
…...QF1 conducted a 180 degree turn, descended 1000 feet to the appropriate hemispherical cruising level, headed to the nearest suitable airport, and did not descend for 23 minutes.
QF1 (assuming you mean the very recent event) had a single intermittent failure indication, followed the checklist instructions that did not include any mention of an immediate descent requirement, and diverted to the nearest suitable airport - probably after discussion with engineers via satcom and clearance from ATC. At no point was there a checklist directed requirement to do other than a normal descent as per normal SoPs. All indications are that this was a very different scenario to MH370 so your comparison is not particularly valid.

Are you now asserting that MH370 did not have a pressurisation problem that would have required an immediate descent to 10,000ft or LSAlt? If so, even if the crew were overcome by smoke or some other contaminant, why did they not make a single radio call to advise of their emergency and required diversion?

Last edited by C441; 23rd Dec 2022 at 21:27. Reason: added "now" to confirm GBO has changed his position on a oxygen bottle failure….
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Old 23rd Dec 2022, 11:14
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are there still people that believe this wasn't a deliberate action to take the plane towards IO/Australia as undetected as possible?
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Old 23rd Dec 2022, 16:19
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Originally Posted by BuzzBox
I guess it’s as credible as some of the other theories. Is there any evidence?
The answer is no, and there never will be. That is why the airplane is where it is. There is no theory here, just indisputable facts. The pilot left the courtroom immediately after a verdict that drove him to suicide. A few hours later he flew an airplane full of passengers to a place he was certain it would never be found. There have been countless deliberate disappearances at sea, all for the same reason. Insurance.

Seventy five thousand dollars a seat if the airplane is never found. If it were found, and proved to be the fault of the airline through the actions of their employee Shah, liability is unlimited. Sue for all you can get.

Whatever it was the government held over his head was unleashed by the verdict. Very likely loss of his job, pension and reputation in addition to prison. Enough to drive a man to suicide. But even then, scandal and disgrace, loss of face, reputation and even the pension his family would need.

He was in a position so unique it could not be written in fiction. A devil’s choice no one could ever imagine having to make. He was a good man. Ask anyone who knew him, especially at the airline where he worked for so long. Stellar reputation, no possible way he could have done this.
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Old 23rd Dec 2022, 20:40
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people who are committed to fight for justice don't suicide just like that, especially if they have to bring 200 innocent people along
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Old 23rd Dec 2022, 21:49
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Referring to the report, “Bayesian Methods in the Search for MH370”(Fig 4.3), it predicts that the speed observed on primary radar from Penang to the last primary radar point at 1822:12, will equate to the aircraft being too far west of the 1825:27 BTO arc (satellite data).

Using THEIR thinking, then the only way around this is to disregard the 1825:27 BTO arc and use the 1828:06 BTO arc i.e. continue northwest along N571 to an arbitrary point 25 NM north west of NILAM. It also requires human intervention to repower the SATCOM. Then at the 1828 position, the aircraft would need to turn south to meet the remaining BTO/BFO data. Thus, to reach the 1941:03 BTO arc, it is still travelling at cruise speed. This leads to an endpoint around 38S 88E, but has the problem of not enough fuel on board to do that, and a search area that has been extensively searched to no avail.

But if we look at the diversion to Banda Aceh via NILAM-SANOB with an inoperative left HGA and left Autothrottle, then at the slow down at TOPD to Banda Aceh, the aircraft will NOT overshoot the 1825:27 BTO arc. The primary radar and satellite data are then correct. No human intervention is required (crew deceased), since the switch to the right HGA completes the log on. The BTO and turn at 1828:06 is also correct, since the aircraft is turning left at SANOB to Banda Aceh, or possibly ANSAX. Note, if it is ANSAX, then the ANSAX 2C arrival and ILS RWY 17 has NOT been loaded, as this would not match BTO data, and the recorded easterly wind over Banda Aceh is slightly in error.

The aircraft overflies Banda Aceh airport, reverts to magnetic heading, and continues south. Note, the recordings from the Indonesian radars at Lhokseumawe and Sabang are not available. The flightpath south meets all BTO/BFO data and crashes near the seventh arc, most likely inside the seventh arc at 34S 93E. It matches the fuel exhaustion point precisely. This site remains unsearched to the 40 nautical mile allowance.
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Old 24th Dec 2022, 04:45
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This guy wanted an enduring mystery. Hence he did not want the plane to randomly crash after fuel exhaustion. There was always the small chance this would be seen by a stray fishing trawler or yacht or other vessel.

Hence you can make 2 probable assumptions
1. Conscious and in control until the end
2. The water would have been sufficiently dark that ships running lights would have been visible.

Did he ditch, or a high speed dive? If a controlled ditching to reduce fragmentation and debris, then he would have needed some early daylight.

So pretty close to the solar terminator - perhaps a bit west of it so he had some twilight but not yet sunrise.
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Old 24th Dec 2022, 06:58
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slats11

So you’ve started with a conclusion and now working backwards.

Do you have any science or evidence to back it up?

Do you have a flightpath and endpoint?

Have you considered the satellite data, or the fuel burn, or the radar flight path, or the lack of Flight ID reason, or the autopilot modes used, or the reason for the logons at 1825 & 0019Z?
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