MH370 - "new" news

[Chris2303]

Seems the ATSB has been working quietly behind the scenes

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/new...YWMHRCNFGG7DE/

[0ttoL]

Some discussion on WSPR & MH370 last year
GT knows where MH370 is.

[MickG0105]

What's known in the PR game as a "hose down",

https://www.atsb.gov.au/media/news-i...ircraft-mh370/

[Pinky the pilot]

I've made the observation elsewhere on a previous occasion but I'll make it again here:

MH 370 will never be found, as there are certain 'authorities' who do not wish it to be found. Ever!!

[morno]

Originally Posted by Pinky the pilot

I've made the observation elsewhere on a previous occasion but I'll make it again here:

MH 470 will never be found, as there are certain 'authorities' who do not wish it to be found. Ever!!

I didn’t know that MH470 was also missing.

Far out there’s a lot of conspirators amongst aviation.

[HOVIS]

Originally Posted by Pinky the pilot

I've made the observation elsewhere on a previous occasion but I'll make it again here:

MH 470 will never be found, as there are certain 'authorities' who do not wish it to be found. Ever!!

Here you go, DIY hat kit for ya.

[MickG0105]

Originally Posted by morno

I didn’t know that MH470 was also missing.

The effect of 8 years of inflation.

[Icarus2001]

MH 470 will never be found, as there are certain 'authorities' who do not wish it to be found. Ever!!

That supposes that those authorities can control third and fourth party efforts to find the hull, they cannot.

[YRP]

Originally Posted by morno

I didn’t know that MH470 was also missing.

Far out there’s a lot of conspirators amongst aviation.

Wake up! Why do you think we’ve never even *heard* of MH470? Who do you think wants us not to know?

[HowardB]

Correction

Daily Mail and Times are reporting today that one of the landing gear doors has probably been found. Link is the Mail as the Times is paywalled
MH370 Landing Gear report

[MickG0105]

Originally Posted by HowardB

Daily Mail and Times are reporting today that one of the landing gear doors has probably been found. Link is the Mail as the Times is paywalled
MH370 Landing Gear report

There are a number of flaws in the reasoning that concludes that that recovered debris is from the main landing gear door. For starters, its external surface is the wrong colour. Further, it doesn't appear to have the correct structure - it appears to be too thin. As to the analysis that the doors were open and the debris was struck by separating fan blades, that's fanciful. If the doors were open the blade strike would be from the outside in, not from the inside out.

[JustinHeywood]

Originally Posted by Pinky the pilot

I've made the observation elsewhere on a previous occasion but I'll make it again here:

MH 370 will never be found, as there are certain 'authorities' who do not wish it to be found. Ever!!

So cryptic. Come on Pinky, tell us what you know! I promise men in black won’t come for you (although men in white coats might)

Otherwise, we might think that you really have no extra knowledge and are just too embarrassed to actually write your theory down

[Pinky the pilot]

Oh come on you lot!!No I do not, nor ever have, claimed to have any extra knowledge!
I will give all of you the benefit of the doubt and assume (and I'm taking a long bow) that your posts are not wind-ups.
But are you all really so thick that you cannot see the obvious?

Let us just assume then that the wreckage is found, the FDR recovered and it is found beyond any doubt, or even just possibly, that the whole event was a deliberate act by the PIC.

Cannot you hear the sounds of Lawyers salivating/sharpening their knives/ordering a new Mercedes etc etc etc?

Any Legal proceedings upon this matter would be drawn out for many many years........
Not to mention the Asian 'loss of face' culture.

So, JustinHeywood and others; Your opinions please? Oh, and minus the sarcasm merely due to an unfortunate typo on my part, if you please.

[jafar]

MH 370. New evidence?

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-ne...intentionally/

[JustinHeywood]

Originally Posted by Pinky the pilot

Oh come on you lot!!No I do not, nor ever have, claimed to have any extra knowledge!
I will give all of you the benefit of the doubt and assume (and I'm taking a long bow) that your posts are not wind-ups.
But are you all really so thick that you cannot see the obvious?

Let us just assume then that the wreckage is found, the FDR recovered and it is found beyond any doubt, or even just possibly, that the whole event was a deliberate act by the PIC.

Cannot you hear the sounds of Lawyers salivating/sharpening their knives/ordering a new Mercedes etc etc etc?

Any Legal proceedings upon this matter would be drawn out for many many years........
Not to mention the Asian 'loss of face' culture.

So, JustinHeywood and others; Your opinions please? Oh, and minus the sarcasm merely due to an unfortunate typo on my part, if you please.

You want my opinion? But I’m not the one playing secret squirrel.

How do you know MH370 “will never be found” and who are the “certain authorities” you are referring to? Why don’t you come out and tell us?
Pinky, your post certainly hinted at some personal insight into what happened.

As far as I’m aware, NOBODY knows what happened that night on MH370. As far as I’m aware there is no actual evidence of conspiracy, although I’ve read a couple of laughable books trying to promote theories, based on pretty wild assumptions.

[tubby linton]

Unless this new piece has a serial number or some other identifiable mark on it then it will be nothing more than ocean rubbish.

[GBO]

This new report is extremely flawed. It is more likely that they have started with a pre-conceived pilot hijacking scenario and tried to bash this evidence into the hole.



Maybe they should look at the evidence first and then arrive at the most likely scenario and endpoint.



Prior to departure the oxygen bottle was serviced by Malaysia.

There wasn’t any change in behaviour as the crew passed through security. They are observed smoking prior to departure.

The aircraft departed KL and climbed to FL350/Mach 0.82

During the turn at IGARI, the transponder ceased transmission.

Aircraft turns back at about 25 degrees angle of bank, descends to FL340 and accelerates to Mach 0.84, flies in heading mode or manually until south of Penang.

Observed on primary radar by multiple Malaysian and Thai radar sites. Inherent errors in primary radar displays incorrect and unrealistic altitude changes.

No ACARS received, no comms received. No SATCOM log off.

Manually deleting the Flight ID would record a SATCOM log off.

FO cell phone connects to a cell tower when aircraft south of Penang at 1752:27.

Aircraft diverts to VAMPI-MEKAR-NILAM in LNAV still at Mach 0.84/FL340.

SATCOM call made TO aircraft via Indian Ocean satellite but can’t connect via the aircraft’s left High Gain Antenna at 18:03.

At 1822:12, the aircraft is 10 NM NW of MEKAR and leaves Malaysian primary radar range.

All Indonesian primary radar recordings at Lhokseumawe, Medan, Sabang and Sibolga are not available!

At 1825:27, aircraft initiates a SATCOM logon request to Indian Ocean Satellite. No Flight ID received from aircraft.

Aircraft must be heading south by 1840 to comply with satellite BTO / BFO data.

SATCOM call made TO aircraft at 1840, it connects but is not answered.

Approximately every hour, the satellite confirms that the aircraft is still on line, this timing can determine the aircraft’s distance (the 7 arcs) from the satellite.

Seven hours after the disappearance, the aircraft initiates a SATCOM log on. Again there isn’t a flight ID, and the aircraft is descending between 5000 to 15000 feet per minute.

Around 36 pieces of debris have been found from just about every part of the plane.

Debris barnacle analysis finds optimum sea temperature range for barnacle growth between 18-24C.

Debris drift analysis finds locations south of Latitude 40S and north of Latitude 20S unlikely.

Confirmed debris analysed by the ATSB confirms flaps where not deployed at the end of flight.



Now for the most likely scenario and endpoint.

The topped up crew oxygen bottle ruptured due to poor maintenance practices by Malaysia. (Soap and water for leak detection tests!)

The adjacent P105 Left Wire Integration Panel and Left AIMS Cabinet is obliterated.

The crew are overwhelmed and bombarded with left systems failures, ie no left transponder, no left FMC, no left HGA, no left Autothrottle, DU failures, no AMU, no ACARS, etc

The crew divert to the nearest suitable airport (Penang) at the default LRC speed of M0.84 and appropriate altitude.

They start to run checklists and problem solve.

FO turns on cell phone to call for help.

Approaching Penang, they manually switch to the right FMC, the software reset deletes the Flight ID.

Without the valid landing altitude data, the cabin altitude warning message shows at 15,000 feet, not 10,000 feet. And unfortunately for the crew, they have missed the gradual decompression event and start to become hypoxic (earlier for smokers). Mentally confused they program a diversion to Banda Aceh airport via NILAM and SANOB.

They eventually succumbed to hypoxia and pass out.

A flight attendant on portable oxygen attempts to revive the pilots, but can’t. The oxygen masks for the pilots are connected to… the ruptured oxygen bottle!

All occupants peacefully pass out from hypoxia.

The aircraft continues on autopilot. At Top Of Descent to Banda Aceh, the serviceable right Autothrottle slows the aircraft to the descent speed, the inop left throttle remains at the high power setting for Mach 0.84

As the aircraft turns left at NILAM towards SANOB, the aircraft switches from the failed left high gain antenna to the serviceable right high gain antenna, mounted on the right side of the aircraft, since the satellite is now on the right side of the aircraft (direction to satellite is about 262 degrees true). The aircraft can finally initiate a renewed log on with all occupants deceased (arc 1). The aircraft overflies Banda Aceh heading south, where it reverts to heading MAGNETIC at the end of route. (Note Indonesia is not releasing primary radar data)

The aircraft passes all arcs on time, meets BFO data, meets actual wind/temperature recordings, meets fuel exhaustion precisely, communicates with the satellite via the right HGA, conforms with autopilot constraints, meets barnacle analysis, meets drift analysis, and meets debris damage observed.

Where the ATSB search went wrong was they kept pushing the pilot suicide constant speed/switch to constant true heading solution, because a constant speed/constant magnetic heading overshoots arc 6 and 7 due to the changing magnetic variation in the southern Indian Ocean.

BUT… if you consider the accident scenario (oxygen bottle rupture) with the crew trying to save the plane, then due to the massive thrust lever differential at top of descent to Banda Aceh, the left engine runs out of fuel up to an HOUR earlier than the right! Due to envelope protection features, the slower single engine speed during the last hour now causes the aircraft to crash at the seventh arc at around 34 South 93 East, when the right engine flames out and autopilot disengages.

Auto engine restart momentarily powers SATCOM causing log on (arc 7).

The aircraft hits the water at high velocity and out of control.

The ATSB only searched about 2NM inside the arc at 34S 93E, because it concentrated the search at 38 South 88 East out to 40 NM wide.

[AerialPerspective]

Originally Posted by Chris2303

Seems the ATSB has been working quietly behind the scenes

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/new...YWMHRCNFGG7DE/

Really?

Are you sure this is not just another one of those tedious, annual exposes by Channel Nine, who would have to be the most egregious tabloid outfit in the country, where we have yet another string of experts arguing around a conference table with a presenter who doesn't know sh-t about aviation posing obvious questions for effect and then a separate segment with Danica (I really do feel sorry for the woman and her family but her credibility is starting to be strained by her popping up every year, crying on queue then lamenting how her life has been affected THEN announcing EVERY TIME, that "if this is true, then it's a game-changer").

The program ends with no result, the whole thing is faded out to dramatic music an then nothing for 12 months until Nine decides it's that time of year again to trot out poor Danica, have her cry for a minute then declare the latest fallacy is a 'game-changer' then the experts argue, fade to black, shelved again for another 12 months.

This is becoming tedious. The Earth is mostly covered by water which is miles deep in many locations. It took 70+ years to find Amelia Earhart's aircraft so anyone that thinks this is going to be found any time soon is smoking some of the good stuff.

[HappyBandit]

Originally Posted by GBO

This new report is extremely flawed. It is more likely that they have started with a pre-conceived pilot hijacking scenario and tried to bash this evidence into the hole. Maybe they should look at the evidence first and then arrive at the most likely scenario and endpoint. Prior to departure the oxygen bottle was serviced by Malaysia. There wasn’t any change in behaviour as the crew passed through security. They are observed smoking prior to departure. The aircraft departed KL and climbed to FL350/Mach 0.82 During the turn at IGARI, the transponder ceased transmission. Aircraft turns back at about 25 degrees angle of bank, descends to FL340 and accelerates to Mach 0.84, flies in heading mode or manually until south of Penang. Observed on primary radar by multiple Malaysian and Thai radar sites. Inherent errors in primary radar displays incorrect and unrealistic altitude changes. No ACARS received, no comms received. No SATCOM log off. Manually deleting the Flight ID would record a SATCOM log off. FO cell phone connects to a cell tower when aircraft south of Penang at 1752:27. Aircraft diverts to VAMPI-MEKAR-NILAM in LNAV still at Mach 0.84/FL340. SATCOM call made TO aircraft via Indian Ocean satellite but can’t connect via the aircraft’s left High Gain Antenna at 18:03. At 1822:12, the aircraft is 10 NM NW of MEKAR and leaves Malaysian primary radar range. All Indonesian primary radar recordings at Lhokseumawe, Medan, Sabang and Sibolga are not available! At 1825:27, aircraft initiates a SATCOM logon request to Indian Ocean Satellite. No Flight ID received from aircraft. Aircraft must be heading south by 1840 to comply with satellite BTO / BFO data. SATCOM call made TO aircraft at 1840, it connects but is not answered. Approximately every hour, the satellite confirms that the aircraft is still on line, this timing can determine the aircraft’s distance (the 7 arcs) from the satellite. Seven hours after the disappearance, the aircraft initiates a SATCOM log on. Again there isn’t a flight ID, and the aircraft is descending between 5000 to 15000 feet per minute. Around 36 pieces of debris have been found from just about every part of the plane. Debris barnacle analysis finds optimum sea temperature range for barnacle growth between 18-24C. Debris drift analysis finds locations south of Latitude 40S and north of Latitude 20S unlikely. Confirmed debris analysed by the ATSB confirms flaps where not deployed at the end of flight. Now for the most likely scenario and endpoint. The topped up crew oxygen bottle ruptured due to poor maintenance practices by Malaysia. (Soap and water for leak detection tests!) The adjacent P105 Left Wire Integration Panel and Left AIMS Cabinet is obliterated. The crew are overwhelmed and bombarded with left systems failures, ie no left transponder, no left FMC, no left HGA, no left Autothrottle, DU failures, no AMU, no ACARS, etc The crew divert to the nearest suitable airport (Penang) at the default LRC speed of M0.84 and appropriate altitude. They start to run checklists and problem solve. FO turns on cell phone to call for help. Approaching Penang, they manually switch to the right FMC, the software reset deletes the Flight ID. Without the valid landing altitude data, the cabin altitude warning message shows at 15,000 feet, not 10,000 feet. And unfortunately for the crew, they have missed the gradual decompression event and start to become hypoxic (earlier for smokers). Mentally confused they program a diversion to Banda Aceh airport via NILAM and SANOB. They eventually succumbed to hypoxia and pass out. A flight attendant on portable oxygen attempts to revive the pilots, but can’t. The oxygen masks for the pilots are connected to… the ruptured oxygen bottle! All occupants peacefully pass out from hypoxia. The aircraft continues on autopilot. At Top Of Descent to Banda Aceh, the serviceable right Autothrottle slows the aircraft to the descent speed, the inop left throttle remains at the high power setting for Mach 0.84 As the aircraft turns left at NILAM towards SANOB, the aircraft switches from the failed left high gain antenna to the serviceable right high gain antenna, mounted on the right side of the aircraft, since the satellite is now on the right side of the aircraft (direction to satellite is about 262 degrees true). The aircraft can finally initiate a renewed log on with all occupants deceased (arc 1). The aircraft overflies Banda Aceh heading south, where it reverts to heading MAGNETIC at the end of route. (Note Indonesia is not releasing primary radar data) The aircraft passes all arcs on time, meets BFO data, meets actual wind/temperature recordings, meets fuel exhaustion precisely, communicates with the satellite via the right HGA, conforms with autopilot constraints, meets barnacle analysis, meets drift analysis, and meets debris damage observed. Where the ATSB search went wrong was they kept pushing the pilot suicide constant speed/switch to constant true heading solution, because a constant speed/constant magnetic heading overshoots arc 6 and 7 due to the changing magnetic variation in the southern Indian Ocean. BUT… if you consider the accident scenario (oxygen bottle rupture) with the crew trying to save the plane, then due to the massive thrust lever differential at top of descent to Banda Aceh, the left engine runs out of fuel up to an HOUR earlier than the right! Due to envelope protection features, the slower single engine speed during the last hour now causes the aircraft to crash at the seventh arc at around 34 South 93 East, when the right engine flames out and autopilot disengages. Auto engine restart momentarily powers SATCOM causing log on (arc 7). The aircraft hits the water at high velocity and out of control. The ATSB only searched about 2NM inside the arc at 34S 93E, because it concentrated the search at 38 South 88 East out to 40 NM wide.

This made for a fascinating read, and has merit. My only question is what proof, if any, do you have of faulty maintenance on oxygen bottle? Or is your analysis and interpretation based on maintenance history in general by said airline?

Surely snare sheets would have been presented and reviewed?

Interviews with maintenance personnel?

Interviews with other flight crew?

It's an interesting interpretation though and has some real deep thought involved.

[BuzzBox]

Originally Posted by GBO

This new report is extremely flawed.

I agree this latest report is flawed. Regarding the theory you proposed, what evidence do you have for the following:

Manually deleting the Flight ID would record a SATCOM log off.

Without the valid landing altitude data, the cabin altitude warning message shows at 15,000 feet, not 10,000 feet.

​​​​​​​