All borders to reopen.
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It probably prevents deaths..but it doesn’t prevent infection or transmission..so it’s not a vaccine, it’s a therapy.
otherwise it’s great..gst stuck in.
Americans are mandating masks again even for the vaccinated. This will never end.
otherwise it’s great..gst stuck in.
Americans are mandating masks again even for the vaccinated. This will never end.
Not all bad news actually. The study was on a small sample. I think it is a watch this space, and maybe cross fingers a bit.
https://www.salon.com/2021/07/28/pfi...iveness-fluke/
https://www.salon.com/2021/07/28/pfi...iveness-fluke/
Mystery case just found in Vic, short, sharp, snap, quick lockdown number 6 is coming to quash this highly virulent fast moving, deadly, never seen before Delta virus. Can’t mess around with delta. NSW will soon release its own virulent strain Gamma.
Well this is encouraging...
March 2022 if we don't vaccinate children in school - and that's assuming we can get to 80% in the adult population too, something that seems increasingly unlikely if the surveys of the younger generations are anything to go by...
Loos like another 11 months on Leave Without Pay. Got the letter from Centerlink today saying they'd rejected my Covid Disaster Payment claim - apparently they don't recognize FIFO employees as being affected by the Sydney lockdown or border restrictions...
Originally Posted by The ABC
Australia should maintain its COVID-zero strategy until 80 per cent of the population is fully vaccinated, including 95 per cent of people over 70, according to a report from the Grattan Institute.
<SNIP>
Ms Wood said with a concerted effort, an 80 per cent vaccination rate is "ambitious, but it is achievable".
"Our numbers suggest you could get to 80 per cent by the end of the year if a vaccine becomes available for children under 12 and we distribute that in schools," she said. "If we don't get approval in the next few months for that type of vaccine, it will take longer … we think certainly by the end of March 2022 is achievable." Source
<SNIP>
Ms Wood said with a concerted effort, an 80 per cent vaccination rate is "ambitious, but it is achievable".
"Our numbers suggest you could get to 80 per cent by the end of the year if a vaccine becomes available for children under 12 and we distribute that in schools," she said. "If we don't get approval in the next few months for that type of vaccine, it will take longer … we think certainly by the end of March 2022 is achievable." Source
Loos like another 11 months on Leave Without Pay. Got the letter from Centerlink today saying they'd rejected my Covid Disaster Payment claim - apparently they don't recognize FIFO employees as being affected by the Sydney lockdown or border restrictions...
Well this is encouraging...March 2022 if we don't vaccinate children in school - and that's assuming we can get to 80% in the adult population too, something that seems increasingly unlikely if the surveys of the younger generations are anything to go by...
Loos like another 11 months on Leave Without Pay. Got the letter from Centerlink today saying they'd rejected my Covid Disaster Payment claim - apparently they don't recognize FIFO employees as being affected by the Sydney lockdown or border restrictions...
March 2022 if we don't vaccinate children in school - and that's assuming we can get to 80% in the adult population too, something that seems increasingly unlikely if the surveys of the younger generations are anything to go by...Loos like another 11 months on Leave Without Pay. Got the letter from Centerlink today saying they'd rejected my Covid Disaster Payment claim - apparently they don't recognize FIFO employees as being affected by the Sydney lockdown or border restrictions...
Protection against severe disease is typically measured by hospitalisation rates and ICU admission rates. On those efficacy endpoints both Pfizer and AstraZeneca are proving to be around 90 percent effective. I haven't refreshed the numbers recently but last week, Israel had 11,200 active cases but only 101 hospitalisations and 24 ICU admissions. Out of that case load they were only seeing one or two deaths a day.
That is an extraordinary improvement over their pre-vaccine experience. The pre-vaccination hospitalisation rate in Israel ran at about 15 percent; a week ago is it was less than one tenth of that (that is, one order of magnitude better) at around 1 percent.
While not perfect, the seat-belt analogy might be appropriate - compared to not wearing one, your risk of serious injury or death is markedly lower. I don't know how many people who walk away from what would otherwise be a fatal prang and complain about the sore shoulder and the bruising across their midriff as an indicator of poor efficacy.
Last edited by MickG0105; 29th Jul 2021 at 10:34. Reason: Grammar tidy up
Great.
So, is "the efficacy against Delta in Israel 42% for those double vaccinated against Covid 19?"
So, is "the efficacy against Delta in Israel 42% for those double vaccinated against Covid 19?"
Seems like a third shot is highly effective. The Israel figures showing low effectiveness are based on a very small study. More work required.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/a...a-variant.html
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/a...a-variant.html
Just heard some expert on the radio talking about some analysis that shows that even with 80% of Australia's population vaccinated, the number of cases arising from the unvaccinated would still overwhelm ICU capacity, which is around 7,500 beds at full 'surge capacity'. (Mick: Please track down the source and quote the facts and conclusions.)
I'm struggling to see how we would overwhelm that with such a high vaccination rate, 80 percent of Australia's population vaccinated roughly equates to 100 percent of the adult population vaccinated. Even assuming that they meant 80 percent of the adult population vaccinated, that's still a high number.
If you take the recent UK experience (possibly in its early days at this point) in their 70-odd percent of the adult population fully vaccinated world, they have seen case prevalence (active cases as a proportion of population) probably peak at 1.61 percent (1.1 million active cases). If we were to see something similar here in our notional highly vaccinated world that would see us at around 417,000 active cases (presently we have less than 3,000 active cases).
The present hospitalisation burden in the UK is 6,000-odd admissions with ICU admissions running at around 850. In other words, in the UK they are currently seeing a hospitalisation rate of less than 1.5 percent, with ICU admissions running at a vanishing low 0.2 percent. Based on those rates we would have to see 3.5 million active cases to fill 7,000 ICU beds. That translates to a case prevalence of around 13.5 percent - unheard of, worse than the prevalence of malaria in India, it would be the equivalent of at least every left hander in the country being an active case and then some.
If we look at Israel, a somewhat more matured post-vaccination example, they currently have about 15,000 active cases for a case prevalence of 0.17 percent. Their current hospitalisation burden is just 280-odd admissions with about 35 of those in ICUs. That is a hospitalisation rate of nearly 2 percent (assuring not dissimilar to the UK) and an ICU admission rate of 0.23 percent (again, assuringly similar to the UK). Those Israeli numbers would yield the same sort of utterly ridiculous required case prevalence rate here to fill 7,000 ICU beds.
In fact, if you want to look at just our baseline ICU bed capacity of around 2,400 beds, based on the UK and Israeli experience, we would need to see 960,000 active cases to fill those beds. That's a case prevalence rate of 3.72 percent. On the US's very worst day with a largely unvaccinated population they only hit a prevalence rate of 2.7 percent. On the UK's very worst day, again with a largely unvaccinated population, they still didn't hit 3 percent case prevalence.
I'm pretty sure that I'd be calling bullsh^t on said expert on the radio's claim.
Last edited by MickG0105; 29th Jul 2021 at 13:07. Reason: Typo
See above. In Israel a recently released study based on an unspecified number of people shows Pfizer to have a 40-odd percent rate of efficacy against symptomatic infection with the delta-variant and a 90-odd percent rate of efficacy against serious illness.
Last edited by MickG0105; 29th Jul 2021 at 12:41. Reason: Tidy up, added point for clarity
Seems like a third shot is highly effective. The Israel figures showing low effectiveness are based on a very small study. More work required.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/a...a-variant.html
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/a...a-variant.html
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Also, bear in mind that at the start of the pandemic, when we had no treatment and no vaccines ,the discourse on vaccines was that vaccine with 50% efficacy in preventing death would be worthwhile.
The fact that they are in the 90% range against the original variant has exceeded all expectations.
The fact that they are in the 90% range against the original variant has exceeded all expectations.
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Approx 26 Mill people in Oz, how many only in ICU because of this so called deadly virus?......be afraid!-)
less than 35000 known cases of a nasty flu virus, how many have recovered?.......be afraid!-)
less than 35000 known cases of a nasty flu virus, how many have recovered?.......be afraid!-)
NSW is already cancelling elective surgery as ICUs are filling up. That’s with 2500 active cases. NSW has a population similar to Sweden, favourite of the “let it rip” brigade, and they were at 200k active cases at their peak. NSW has 60 already in the ICU with a total of 900 ICU beds, which are generally close to full with the expected users during normal times.
What do you think the capacity is going to be like if active cases get beyond 2500?
US studies show intial effecacy of 96% and overtime decreasing to 64%, same range for moderna as well. Both are RDNA, us doesn't use AZ
And heres one from france in peer review atm
https://theconversation.com/covid-st...ll-work-164351
Yes there are less effective against delta but 39% seems a outler compared to others
Okey doke, I don't know where they got 7,500 ICU beds as the surge capacity. The generally accepted of figure is about 7,000 (source).
I'm struggling to see how we would overwhelm that with such a high vaccination rate, 80 percent of Australia's population vaccinated roughly equates to 100 percent of the adult population vaccinated. Even assuming that they meant 80 percent of the adult population vaccinated, that's still a high number.
If you take the recent UK experience (possibly in its early days at this point) in their 70-odd percent of the adult population fully vaccinated world, they have seen case prevalence (active cases as a proportion of population) probably peak at 1.61 percent (1.1 million active cases). If we were to see something similar here in our notional highly vaccinated world that would see us at around 417,000 active cases (presently we have less than 3,000 active cases).
The present hospitalisation burden in the UK is 6,000-odd admissions with ICU admissions running at around 850. In other words, in the UK they are currently seeing a hospitalisation rate of less than 1.5 percent, with ICU admissions running at a vanishing low 0.2 percent. Based on those rates we would have to see 3.5 million active cases to fill 7,000 ICU beds. That translates to a case prevalence of around 13.5 percent - unheard of, worse than the prevalence of malaria in India, it would be the equivalent of at least every left hander in the country being an active case and then some.
If we look at Israel, a somewhat more matured post-vaccination example, they currently have about 15,000 active cases for a case prevalence of 0.17 percent. Their current hospitalisation burden is just 280-odd admissions with about 35 of those in ICUs. That is a hospitalisation rate of nearly 2 percent (assuring not dissimilar to the UK) and an ICU admission rate of 0.23 percent (again, assuringly similar to the UK). Those Israeli numbers would yield the same sort of utterly ridiculous required case prevalence rate here to fill 7,000 ICU beds.
In fact, if you want to look at just our baseline ICU bed capacity of around 2,400 beds, based on the UK and Israeli experience, we would need to see 960,000 active cases to fill those beds. That's a case prevalence rate of 3.72 percent. On the US's very worst day with a largely unvaccinated population they only hit a prevalence rate of 2.7 percent. On the UK's very worst day, again with a largely unvaccinated population, they still didn't hit 3 percent case prevalence.
I'm pretty sure that I'd be calling bullsh^t on said expert on the radio's claim.
I'm struggling to see how we would overwhelm that with such a high vaccination rate, 80 percent of Australia's population vaccinated roughly equates to 100 percent of the adult population vaccinated. Even assuming that they meant 80 percent of the adult population vaccinated, that's still a high number.
If you take the recent UK experience (possibly in its early days at this point) in their 70-odd percent of the adult population fully vaccinated world, they have seen case prevalence (active cases as a proportion of population) probably peak at 1.61 percent (1.1 million active cases). If we were to see something similar here in our notional highly vaccinated world that would see us at around 417,000 active cases (presently we have less than 3,000 active cases).
The present hospitalisation burden in the UK is 6,000-odd admissions with ICU admissions running at around 850. In other words, in the UK they are currently seeing a hospitalisation rate of less than 1.5 percent, with ICU admissions running at a vanishing low 0.2 percent. Based on those rates we would have to see 3.5 million active cases to fill 7,000 ICU beds. That translates to a case prevalence of around 13.5 percent - unheard of, worse than the prevalence of malaria in India, it would be the equivalent of at least every left hander in the country being an active case and then some.
If we look at Israel, a somewhat more matured post-vaccination example, they currently have about 15,000 active cases for a case prevalence of 0.17 percent. Their current hospitalisation burden is just 280-odd admissions with about 35 of those in ICUs. That is a hospitalisation rate of nearly 2 percent (assuring not dissimilar to the UK) and an ICU admission rate of 0.23 percent (again, assuringly similar to the UK). Those Israeli numbers would yield the same sort of utterly ridiculous required case prevalence rate here to fill 7,000 ICU beds.
In fact, if you want to look at just our baseline ICU bed capacity of around 2,400 beds, based on the UK and Israeli experience, we would need to see 960,000 active cases to fill those beds. That's a case prevalence rate of 3.72 percent. On the US's very worst day with a largely unvaccinated population they only hit a prevalence rate of 2.7 percent. On the UK's very worst day, again with a largely unvaccinated population, they still didn't hit 3 percent case prevalence.
I'm pretty sure that I'd be calling bullsh^t on said expert on the radio's claim.
It was a chap from the Doherty Institute. He did in fact say "7,000" ICU beds rather than 7,500 and his comments about them still being overwhelmed were in relation to 50% of the population being vaccinated rather than 80%. The Institute's modelling supports a relaxation of restrictions at 80% (but 90% for some demographics).
Will be interesting to hear what comes out of the 'National Cabinet' today.
And you forgot the bit where the US and UK studies show its 70-88% effective, theres still no cut and dried answers to this sort of the stuff
US studies show intial effecacy of 96% and overtime decreasing to 64%, same range for moderna as well. Both are RDNA, us doesn't use AZ
And heres one from france in peer review atm
https://theconversation.com/covid-st...ll-work-164351
Yes there are less effective against delta but 39% seems a outler compared to others
US studies show intial effecacy of 96% and overtime decreasing to 64%, same range for moderna as well. Both are RDNA, us doesn't use AZ
And heres one from france in peer review atm
https://theconversation.com/covid-st...ll-work-164351
Yes there are less effective against delta but 39% seems a outler compared to others
which is what I said in that and subsequent posts. I even posted in my subsequent comment a link to an article that goes into some detail about the Israeli numbers and casts doubt on the low number in that study. And also a link about the uk in relation to a third Pfizer dose which also contains uk efficiency numbers. I suggest you read those. It seems like more work needs doing on the Israeli number as it was a very small sample. And as someone else pointed out, it depends what effectiveness you are measuring against. Any infection no matter how mild or against serious infection requiring hospitalisation or causing death. The vaccines do seem very effective against the latter two, but there does appear to be potentially a drop off in effectiveness, potentially greater than might have been expected.
Last edited by Foxxster; 29th Jul 2021 at 22:48.
Approx 26 Mill people in Oz, how many only in ICU because of this so called deadly virus?......be afraid!-)
less than 35000 known cases of a nasty flu virus, how many have recovered?.......be afraid!-)
less than 35000 known cases of a nasty flu virus, how many have recovered?.......be afraid!-)
Flu is currently 36 from 22,000 cases, which equals 0.01% mortality rate, complication rate almost 1%. 1 in 1000 death rate.
Meanwhile, another study on blood clots from Pfizer versus AstraZeneca shows they both have the same rate. However, people getting Pfizer were on average older and had more underlying conditions so who knows…,I hope we don’t get a GREAT BIG SCARE CAMPAIGN against Pfizer now like we have had against AstraZeneca.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...udy-finds.html
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...udy-finds.html