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Old 28th Jul 2021, 07:20
  #6581 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by MickG0105
What stats would they be?


What data supports your contention that lives, calculated for risk, have historically been worth orders of magnitude less?

An estimate of the value of statistical life that has been discussed here is around $5 million. I've estimated that we've probably spent somewhere between 2 - 3 times that. A factor of two or three is at least 30 times less than 'orders of magnitude'.
The data differs from your sums. The stats are freely available on government websites. I won’t do the work for you.
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Old 28th Jul 2021, 07:57
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Originally Posted by ScepticalOptomist
The data differs from your sums. The stats are freely available on government websites. I won’t do the work for you.
"I don't know." would have saved you a few keystrokes.

The utter implausibility of your "orders of magnitude" claim is easily demonstrated. Using $5 million as the value of a statistical life and a notional 35,000 lives saved, the mitigation expenditure would be $175 billion. When you raise that figure by "orders of magnitude" you get a minimum of $17.5 trillion. That is over ten times our annual GDP.

The total aggregated calendar year expenditure for all levels of government - federal, states and territories, and local - does not exceed $1 trillion.

​​​​​​​See the problem?

Last edited by MickG0105; 28th Jul 2021 at 07:59. Reason: Formatting
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Old 28th Jul 2021, 08:19
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Again, I dips me lid at your exquisite use of language, Mick:
An estimate of the value of statistical life that has been discussed here is around $5 million. I've estimated that we've probably spent somewhere between 2 - 3 times that per life notionally saved. A factor of two or three is at least 30 times less than 'orders of magnitude'.
I'll assume that your estimates are accurate. But...

It's of course your estimate of what's probably been "spent". Never an acknowledgement of the costs that you don't measure in dollars because you don't want to.
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Old 28th Jul 2021, 08:29
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Originally Posted by MickG0105
"I don't know." would have saved you a few keystrokes.

See the problem?
​​​​​​​Yes mate, I do.
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Old 28th Jul 2021, 08:40
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Originally Posted by Lead Balloon
Again, I dips me lid at your exquisite use of language, Mick
It is most likely the liberal sprinkling of facts and basic mathematics that makes the rhetoric look better.


Originally Posted by Lead Balloon
... But...

It's of course your estimate of what's probably been "spent". Never an acknowledgement of the costs that you don't measure in dollars because you don't want to.

Now, that's manifestly and demonstrably incorrect, isn't it? In our discussions I was very clear that there are "non-financial" costs that are difficult to convert to properly estimated dollar costs. Remember this?

... let's draw this argy-barge to a close because I do not have the time to be formulating "proper estimates" for non-financials. If you want to compare a speculative 'let it rip' scenario to the actual solution that Australian Governments have pursued, run with a cost of around $450 billion (that's $350 billion for the federal response (including tax revenues foregone), $60 billion for the aggregate state based responses and $40 billion for the 'non-financials'). If that doesn't suit, put your own numbers in.
So, to be very clear I most assuredly did acknowledge 'the costs that you don't measure in dollars' and I provided an estimate that went into the calculation. Moreover, I invited you to provide an alternate cost if you didn't like the $40 billion estimate.

Last edited by MickG0105; 28th Jul 2021 at 08:41. Reason: Tidy up
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Old 28th Jul 2021, 09:39
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Originally Posted by Torukmacto
Lock down was only meant to slow it down while vaccinations took place and protect our health system . Fear and misinformation is out of control . Frustrating to see Australians vaccination rate so low . Spending days discussing a single case , complaining about protestors or not stopping all inbound international arrivals . This thing is here to stay . Time to acknowledge the problem and the best solution and get vaccinated.

How come that the AZ vaccine is deemed to dangerous to use in Australia ? The very same vaccine has been and is being used on millions of people of all ages in the UK with great results.
Are people believing the anti vac mumbo jumbo rather than medical advice?
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Old 28th Jul 2021, 09:43
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Originally Posted by cessnapete
Are people believing the anti vac mumbo jumbo rather than medical advice?
If the conversation I had with another school dad is anything to go by, very much so.
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Old 28th Jul 2021, 09:59
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Sacrificing the freedom of the young and working age to save the retired and infirm..

​​​​​….is this the modern interpretation of throwing virgins into the volcano to guarantee the harvests?
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Old 28th Jul 2021, 10:35
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Originally Posted by cessnapete
How come that the AZ vaccine is deemed to dangerous to use in Australia ? The very same vaccine has been and is being used on millions of people of all ages in the UK with great results.
Are people believing the anti vac mumbo jumbo rather than medical advice?
Problem is the medical advice is all mumbo jumbo if not worse. We lockdown when mystery cases get to 3.
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Old 28th Jul 2021, 11:24
  #6590 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by MickG0105
It is most likely the liberal sprinkling of facts and basic mathematics that makes the rhetoric look better.

Now, that's manifestly and demonstrably incorrect, isn't it? In our discussions I was very clear that there are "non-financial" costs that are difficult to convert to properly estimated dollar costs. Remember this?

So, to be very clear I most assuredly did acknowledge 'the costs that you don't measure in dollars' and I provided an estimate that went into the calculation. Moreover, I invited you to provide an alternate cost if you didn't like the $40 billion estimate.
So, on your estimates of the 'financial' and 'non-financials' back then were: $450 billion 'spent' by governments collectively and $40 billion in 'non-financial costs'.

What does 40,000 lives saved (to go the extremes of the estimate) times $5 million add up to? Maybe we're mixing US billions with Australian billions?
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Old 28th Jul 2021, 12:07
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Originally Posted by StudentInDebt
If the conversation I had with another school dad is anything to go by, very much so.
Take away the opportunity to go to a pub/restaurant/concert or any interstate/overseas travel and watch their tune change pretty quickly.
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Old 28th Jul 2021, 12:52
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People probably think I'm heartless, but I don't see what the big issue is.
Offer The vaccine to everyone, don't force them. Protect the Very few that can't have the vaccine then, get on with life. If people choose not to have the vaccine and they subsequently get sick or die, does it really matter? We always talk about freedom of choice. We are all free to choose many things in life, that doesn't absolve you Of the consequences Of your choice. One could argue that ignoring science because of some article you read on the internet is the same evolutionary misstep as pulling the sabre tooth tiger's tale. Nature will take care of the rest.
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Old 28th Jul 2021, 13:26
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Originally Posted by cLeArIcE
People probably think I'm heartless, but I don't see what the big issue is.
Offer The vaccine to everyone, don't force them. Protect the Very few that can't have the vaccine then, get on with life. If people choose not to have the vaccine and they subsequently get sick or die, does it really matter? We always talk about freedom of choice. We are all free to choose many things in life, that doesn't absolve you Of the consequences Of your choice. One could argue that ignoring science because of some article you read on the internet is the same evolutionary misstep as pulling the sabre tooth tiger's tale. Nature will take care of the rest.
Sure and that's the conversation Australia needs to have. Unfortunately we are a long way away in the rollout for everyone who wants to be vaccinated has been. it is also dependant on there being no change to the virus itself, should there be a breakout strain, (roughly every 6 months) Then there's the issue of Long Covid, once infected you may never fully recover. my girls who volunteed for VIC still havnt recovered after 12 months, will they ever, we don't know. How many of us are willing to live with that,
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Old 28th Jul 2021, 14:58
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Mick, I will choose one just to show how wrong you are.

Car crashes - 562 or so, but only about 490 if you don't count the 75s and older.
Try 1142 road deaths in the last twelve months. Double your figure. Should we lock down cars to prevent deaths?

https://www.bitre.gov.au/publication...thly_bulletins

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Old 28th Jul 2021, 17:07
  #6595 (permalink)  
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https://www.news.com.au/national/nsw...217096dc988538

This is getting so out of control. Gladys HAS to bite the bullet and enforce a proper and hard lockdown. She has to stop half way measures. I think her future is doomed …. And she will take the Federal Libs along with her.


https://www.news.com.au/national/nsw...c92242160e03a8
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Old 28th Jul 2021, 17:17
  #6596 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Xeptu
it is also dependant on there being no change to the virus itself, should there be a breakout strain, (roughly every 6 months) ,
Why can’t this be dealt with like the flu vaccine?

A new version of the flu vaccine is currently released every 6 months to coincide with the Northern and Southern Hemisphere winters. No reason why a COVID booster couldn’t be released along the same time frame in the future.

The problem is getting it into peoples arms. For that we need to move away from the complex and overly bureaucratic rollout with the current vaccine. Major employers should be able to offer it direct to their staff in the workplace. Schools could give it at school (like other vaccines already). We could even set up mass walk in clinics in the major shopping centres!! Go get your groceries and walk out vaccinated!!

Most of these processes already exist for all the other vaccines we get. I don’t see why the COVID vaccine should be any different.

I’m sure we will get there, Australia just has to reinvent the wheel first.
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Old 28th Jul 2021, 21:21
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Originally Posted by cLeArIcE
People probably think I'm heartless, but I don't see what the big issue is.
Offer The vaccine to everyone, don't force them. Protect the Very few that can't have the vaccine then, get on with life. If people choose not to have the vaccine and they subsequently get sick or die, does it really matter? We always talk about freedom of choice. We are all free to choose many things in life, that doesn't absolve you Of the consequences Of your choice. One could argue that ignoring science because of some article you read on the internet is the same evolutionary misstep as pulling the sabre tooth tiger's tale. Nature will take care of the rest.
The flaw in your reasoning is that it will be hospitals and their ICUs that "take care of the rest" until nature takes its course.

If too few choose the get the vaccine even though it's available, there's a real risk that the medical system will be overwhelmed by the Covid sick when we (not if, we have no choice but to) 'let it rip', thus crowding out the vaccinated from the 'normal' activities of the medical system. It's pretty difficult getting proper emergency assistance after serious injury in an accident, if every ICU bed is full of the Covid sick and staff have to shuffle around in Hazmat outfits.

That's why there's an ongoing discussion about what percentage of the population has to be vaccinated before it's sensible to 'let it rip'.

And let's hope there's enough 'agility' in the mRNA technology to keep up. The Omega strain is going to be very ugly.
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Old 28th Jul 2021, 21:44
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Originally Posted by SOPS
https://www.news.com.au/national/nsw...217096dc988538

This is getting so out of control. Gladys HAS to bite the bullet and enforce a proper and hard lockdown. She has to stop half way measures. I think her future is doomed …. And she will take the Federal Libs along with her.


https://www.news.com.au/national/nsw...c92242160e03a8
yet from the same source….

Proof Sydney more restricted than Melbourne


Alexis CareyMelbourne's brutal 2020 lockdown made headlines around the world – but new mobility data reveals Sydney's current lockdown has been more effective in keeping residents at home.



According to the Daily Telegraph, the data was prepared by the state government for NSW's crisis cabinet, and it shows that on average, Sydneysiders are spending more time at home during the current lockdown than Melburnians did during theirs.



“When you look at the objective data, Sydney is staying home more compared to Melbourne in the similar stages of their lockdown last year,” Customer Services Minister Victor Dominello told the publication.
this identifies another major problem in Australia…dumbarse media (journalists are few and far between) and click bait headlines


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Old 28th Jul 2021, 21:47
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Originally Posted by turbantime
Take away the opportunity to go to a pub/restaurant/concert or any interstate/overseas travel and watch their tune change pretty quickly.
Interesting you say that,i had a conversation with a childcare centre manager a couple of days ago & asked her about vaccination requirements for the kids that go there.
She told me that in 10 years of being in her position there have only been 3 families that would not get their kids vaccinated.
She said of all the others who didnt want to they soon changed their mind when they realised they would not be able to have their kids attend a childcare centre.
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Old 28th Jul 2021, 21:56
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Originally Posted by Lead Balloon
The flaw in your reasoning is that it will be hospitals and their ICUs that "take care of the rest" until nature takes its course.

If too few choose the get the vaccine even though it's available, there's a real risk that the medical system will be overwhelmed by the Covid sick when we (not if, we have no choice but to) 'let it rip', thus crowding out the vaccinated from the 'normal' activities of the medical system. It's pretty difficult getting proper emergency assistance after serious injury in an accident, if every ICU bed is full of the Covid sick and staff have to shuffle around in Hazmat outfits.
This is a point that seems to go over the heads of those that point at the “low death rate”.
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