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Old 3rd Apr 2021, 10:17
  #4201 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2013
Location: Weltschmerz-By-The-Sea, Queensland, Australia
Posts: 1,101
I agree that the incidence of blood clots in general after the Oxford-AZ jab seems to mirror what you'd expect in the same unvaccinated population over the same time, but the rare kind of clotting event, the CVST, seems to be over represented in the data.

The risk is still minuscule compared to the virus, less than shark attacks for surfers/divers, about the same as lightning strike deaths. Much less chance of dying than winning a lottery.

As far as herd immunity goes: even the sober scientists at the CDC suggest that more than 70% of the population has to be vaccinated for herd immunity to begin in the USA. Same for Europe. Here, where even a single case triggers panic, you have to expect that total elimination is the only way we can ever again enjoy a robust aviation industry free from the snap lock-downs. That means, by extension, that we are going to need an almost total vaccination uptake. Since that isnít going to happen without serious coercion, I wonder if the government has mapped out a strategy to force vaccinations regardless of whatever superstitions people harbour?

Since the Premiers want a zero-risk Covid response, the only way to avoid more lockdowns is a zero-risk population, which means a 100% immunity program. Otherwise, we are going to be closed to retail international travel forever. Unless of course the various governments re-educate the public about the balance of risks and accept say a flu-like mortality rate.

Anecdotally I have had my AZ jab, and have detected no &$(6z$$d covfefe.

On edit: Ahhh! I smell toast!
Australopithecus is offline  
Old 3rd Apr 2021, 10:31
  #4202 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 1999
Location: I prefer to remain north of a direct line BNE-ADL
Age: 47
Posts: 1,237
The only thing this has made me realise is that most numpty’s in this country have no idea about statistics and probability. Maybe Mathematics should be emphasised more in the curriculum? Basically what the media have been crapping on about in the last 2 days is exactly the same as a person standing under a tree in a storm and whinging they got struck by lightning. It’s pretty much the same probability.
Angle of Attack is offline  
Old 3rd Apr 2021, 11:38
  #4203 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2013
Location: Weltschmerz-By-The-Sea, Queensland, Australia
Posts: 1,101
If a country removes all restrictions on distancing, masks and testing, the unvaccinated cohort, if subsequently infected, will suffer the same proportional fate that we see now: about 2% die, about 30% have some long tern ill effects, and some fraction of those have a disability. The same bleak outlook that informed our response a year ago remains in play, although with a reduced rate of infection.

I have a few problems with people choosing not to immunised.:They will all eventually burden the health care system to one degree or another. Some will eventually burden the long term care system. Some (after the inevitable sporadic infections) will prevent reliable freedom of movement across borders because of the predictable political response. There will be the attendant economic losses in the travel and hospitality industries that will go unpunished. The subset of the population that is unvaccinated will become a political constituency that may shape policy to the detriment of the greater good. The degree of herd immunity we will accept must must must reflect the degree of vaccine uptake that the will demand of our neighbours. If we as a nation demand a 100% covid safe life then we must demand of each other a 100% immunity. Same as polio, same as small pox. The cost may end up being ten lives lost. The individual risks remain tiny, and should be discussed that way. Few people seem able (or schooled) to perceive risk or chance accurately.
Australopithecus is offline  
Old 3rd Apr 2021, 14:36
  #4204 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2020
Location: Perth, Western Australia
Posts: 17
Originally Posted by Australopithecus View Post
I agree that the incidence of blood clots in general after the Oxford-AZ jab seems to mirror what you'd expect in the same unvaccinated population over the same time, but the rare kind of clotting event, the CVST, seems to be over represented in the data.

The risk is still minuscule compared to the virus, less than shark attacks for surfers/divers, about the same as lightning strike deaths. Much less chance of dying than winning a lottery.

As far as herd immunity goes: even the sober scientists at the CDC suggest that more than 70% of the population has to be vaccinated for herd immunity to begin in the USA. Same for Europe. Here, where even a single case triggers panic, you have to expect that total elimination is the only way we can ever again enjoy a robust aviation industry free from the snap lock-downs. That means, by extension, that we are going to need an almost total vaccination uptake. Since that isnít going to happen without serious coercion, I wonder if the government has mapped out a strategy to force vaccinations regardless of whatever superstitions people harbour?

Since the Premiers want a zero-risk Covid response, the only way to avoid more lockdowns is a zero-risk population, which means a 100% immunity program. Otherwise, we are going to be closed to retail international travel forever. Unless of course the various governments re-educate the public about the balance of risks and accept say a flu-like mortality rate.

Anecdotally I have had my AZ jab, and have detected no &$(6z$$d covfefe.

On edit: Ahhh! I smell toast!
Ridiculous, the government can't force vaccinations. Unless you would like Australia to model itself on China? We're already a nanny state before this whole COVID business. Gee Australian's have become real apathetic pussies.
If you're not at risk, why get vaccinated? Look at the demographics where COVID has the most serious effects. Those already close to or exceeding the average life expectancy. Gee if I was living in a nursing home right now (family visiting once a week if I'm lucky, laying in my own shit for hours, surrounded by other old grogan's) I would be licking every light switch hoping to catch the bug to put me out of my misery.
So let's get on with it. Let those who want the vaccine get it and those that don't and accept a level of risk, get back to normal life.
JJ 789 is offline  
Old 3rd Apr 2021, 19:42
  #4205 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2013
Location: Weltschmerz-By-The-Sea, Queensland, Australia
Posts: 1,101
And there you have it. Ignorance and selfishness in the guise of freedumb. Q.E.D.
Australopithecus is offline  
Old 3rd Apr 2021, 22:05
  #4206 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jul 2018
Location: Sydney
Posts: 406
Originally Posted by Australopithecus View Post
If a country removes all restrictions on distancing, masks and testing, the unvaccinated cohort, if subsequently infected, will suffer the same proportional fate that we see now: about 2% die, about 30% have some long tern ill effects, and some fraction of those have a disability. The same bleak outlook that informed our response a year ago remains in play, although with a reduced rate of infection.

I have a few problems with people choosing not to immunised.:They will all eventually burden the health care system to one degree or another. Some will eventually burden the long term care system. Some (after the inevitable sporadic infections) will prevent reliable freedom of movement across borders because of the predictable political response. There will be the attendant economic losses in the travel and hospitality industries that will go unpunished. The subset of the population that is unvaccinated will become a political constituency that may shape policy to the detriment of the greater good. The degree of herd immunity we will accept must must must reflect the degree of vaccine uptake that the will demand of our neighbours. If we as a nation demand a 100% covid safe life then we must demand of each other a 100% immunity. Same as polio, same as small pox. The cost may end up being ten lives lost. The individual risks remain tiny, and should be discussed that way. Few people seem able (or schooled) to perceive risk or chance accurately.

You bring up a very valid point. This is the burden of a population pre vaccination rollout.
Ladloy is offline  
Old 3rd Apr 2021, 22:41
  #4207 (permalink)  

Evertonian
 
Join Date: May 2000
Location: #3117# Ppruner of the Year Nominee 2005
Posts: 11,381
Simple. Deny the jab and lose Medicare benefits for COVID related illness plus, financial liability if you cause infection to others. Money is a great motivator.
Buster Hyman is offline  
Old 3rd Apr 2021, 22:41
  #4208 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Sunshine Coast
Posts: 309
JJ789
You are clearly but a child. You obviously have no knowledge of compulsory polio and TB vaccinations in the early 60s for all children.
Vag277 is offline  
Old 4th Apr 2021, 01:58
  #4209 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: The Coal Face
Posts: 920
Originally Posted by JJ 789 View Post
Ridiculous, the government can't force vaccinations. Unless you would like Australia to model itself on China? We're already a nanny state before this whole COVID business. Gee Australian's have become real apathetic pussies.
If you're not at risk, why get vaccinated? Look at the demographics where COVID has the most serious effects. Those already close to or exceeding the average life expectancy. Gee if I was living in a nursing home right now (family visiting once a week if I'm lucky, laying in my own shit for hours, surrounded by other old grogan's) I would be licking every light switch hoping to catch the bug to put me out of my misery.
So let's get on with it. Let those who want the vaccine get it and those that don't and accept a level of risk, get back to normal life.
No problem. Could you all gather your things and go live on your own island? Antarctica's available. Cheers.
Chronic Snoozer is offline  
Old 4th Apr 2021, 02:47
  #4210 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2013
Location: Equatorial
Age: 49
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Originally Posted by Chronic Snoozer View Post
No problem. Could you all gather your things and go live on your own island? Antarctica's available. Cheers.
Antarcticaís pretty crowded, I reckon youíd probably have to have had the jab to be able to go! Little bit far away to be getting the Billy ray!
Global Aviator is offline  
Old 4th Apr 2021, 04:29
  #4211 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
Location: UK
Posts: 874
Originally Posted by JJ 789 View Post
Ridiculous, the government can't force vaccinations. Unless you would like Australia to model itself on China? We're already a nanny state before this whole COVID business. Gee Australian's have become real apathetic pussies.
If you're not at risk, why get vaccinated? Look at the demographics where COVID has the most serious effects. Those already close to or exceeding the average life expectancy. Gee if I was living in a nursing home right now (family visiting once a week if I'm lucky, laying in my own shit for hours, surrounded by other old grogan's) I would be licking every light switch hoping to catch the bug to put me out of my misery.
So let's get on with it. Let those who want the vaccine get it and those that don't and accept a level of risk, get back to normal life.
It is short sighted to bring in ďpassportsĒ and will antagonise the population, but at the same time, you canít keep the country closed because some people refuse to be vaccinated. Life has to go on.

On the subject of nanny states, still booking people for jaywalking?
Dannyboy39 is offline  
Old 4th Apr 2021, 05:01
  #4212 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jul 2017
Location: Dunda
Posts: 158
Originally Posted by Buster Hyman View Post
Simple. Deny the jab and lose Medicare benefits for COVID related illness plus, financial liability if you cause infection to others. Money is a great motivator.
Letís roll out this theory to all aspects of healthcare consumption. Iíll take my COVID liability if oldies and fatties take on age and fat related illness liability.
patty50 is offline  
Old 4th Apr 2021, 06:24
  #4213 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: Cab of a Freight Train
Age: 39
Posts: 907
Originally Posted by Buster Hyman View Post
Simple. Deny the jab and lose Medicare benefits for COVID related illness plus, financial liability if you cause infection to others. Money is a great motivator.
So...Uhh, those 8,500 deaths and tens of thousands of instances of lung cancer caused by intentional and voluntary tobacco consumption should cough up (pardon the terrible pun), for their own treatment too?
KRviator is offline  
Old 4th Apr 2021, 06:49
  #4214 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2020
Location: Perth, Western Australia
Posts: 17
Originally Posted by Vag277 View Post
JJ789
You are clearly but a child. You obviously have no knowledge of compulsory polio and TB vaccinations in the early 60s for all children.
Again, look at the severity of polio vs COVID. So I pose the question, as an individual in my mid 30's where this virus poses a very small risk, why should I be vaccinated?
However I've already been given an exemption by a very understanding doctor so that's a relief working in the aviation industry, but for the rest who feel like they may be "forced", I suggest they look into their rights.
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Old 4th Apr 2021, 07:47
  #4215 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Aus
Age: 40
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Originally Posted by JJ 789 View Post
However I've already been given an exemption by a very understanding doctor so that's a relief working in the aviation industry, but for the rest who feel like they may be "forced", I suggest they look into their rights.
If you have a condition preventing you from taking the vaccine then I would suggest you are not able to hold a Class 1 medical. Good luck at your next renewal.
turbantime is online now  
Old 4th Apr 2021, 07:50
  #4216 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: In the detent
Posts: 518
Originally Posted by Chronic Snoozer View Post
No problem. Could you all gather your things and go live on your own island? Antarctica's available. Cheers.

Could you gather all your things and go live in a totalitarian / authoritarian shithole? China or North Korea's available. You'd fit right in at the Uygher "re education" camps where the Government decides what medical procedures you will have
kingRB is online now  
Old 4th Apr 2021, 08:15
  #4217 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2020
Location: Perth, Western Australia
Posts: 17
Originally Posted by turbantime View Post
If you have a condition preventing you from taking the vaccine then I would suggest you are not able to hold a Class 1 medical. Good luck at your next renewal.
There's no condition preventing me holding a class 1 medical. As I said, they're a very "understanding" doctor and are pragmatic in their understanding of this pandemic

Last edited by JJ 789; 4th Apr 2021 at 08:25.
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Old 4th Apr 2021, 08:15
  #4218 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2020
Location: Perth, Western Australia
Posts: 17
Originally Posted by kingRB View Post
Could you gather all your things and go live in a totalitarian / authoritarian shithole? China or North Korea's available. You'd fit right in at the Uygher "re education" camps where the Government decides what medical procedures you will have
Haha I agree, it seems some people are wishing for this
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Old 4th Apr 2021, 09:01
  #4219 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2018
Location: East of Westralia
Posts: 481
Originally Posted by JJ 789 View Post
Again, look at the severity of polio vs COVID. So I pose the question, as an individual in my mid 30's where this virus poses a very small risk, why should I be vaccinated?
However I've already been given an exemption by a very understanding doctor so that's a relief working in the aviation industry, but for the rest who feel like they may be "forced", I suggest they look into their rights.
I presume youíre domestic only?

I imagine most countries, including Australia, requiring a vaccination for entry if you donít want to pay for lengthy quarantine.
ScepticalOptomist is offline  
Old 4th Apr 2021, 09:04
  #4220 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Aus
Age: 40
Posts: 349
Originally Posted by JJ 789 View Post
There's no condition preventing me holding a class 1 medical. As I said, they're a very "understanding" doctor and are pragmatic in their understanding of this pandemic
But in order to get a medical exemption from the vaccine, there will be something in your file explaining why you canít have one i.e. a condition. If you fail to disclose this condition to CASA at your next renewal, you are strictly liable and may have your medical cancelled and then prosecuted.
turbantime is online now  

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