Southampton-3

[SKOJB]

Looks like TUI are re adjusting there flights for next summer
As it stands there is no Ibiza schedule as BA have pulled the route for next summer along with Florence and Nice

The Tuesday service to Palma has been re introduced using Volotea , although the seat plan shows a B717 ?

TUI are using a whole BA Cityflyer charter for the Saturday flight to Palma and not Volotea , same as this summer
They have also again taken seats on the Sat / Sun BA scheduled flights as well

Doubt the Tue TUI flight will run as it didn’t this summer!

[RW20]

Gradually BA are slipping away from there original SOU routes,it's such a shame the runway extension is not in progress,because it's the lifesaver the airport needs,without it I don't think SOU could survive in the long term given the current losses.

[Rivet Joint]

Went past on the train the other day and the land where the extended car park is being built has fencing around it. A sign works are starting imminently?

[Flightrider]

Gradually BA are slipping away from there original SOU routes,it's such a shame the runway extension is not in progress,because it's the lifesaver the airport needs,without it I don't think SOU could survive in the long term given the current losses.

CityFlyer said in their accounts filed recently that they were reducing from 24 to 21 aircraft. If you don't have as many aircraft on weekdays at LCY, you'll have less to fly at SOU at weekends. Conflating that with the SOU runway extension is a stretch, to put it mildly.

[BOHEuropean]

CityFlyer said in their accounts filed recently that they were reducing from 24 to 21 aircraft. If you don't have as many aircraft on weekdays at LCY, you'll have less to fly at SOU at weekends. Conflating that with the SOU runway extension is a stretch, to put it mildly.

They're already down to 22 aircraft, with one parked at NWI since 24 September

[richardwpprn]

CityFlyer said in their accounts filed recently that they were reducing from 24 to 21 aircraft. If you don't have as many aircraft on weekdays at LCY, you'll have less to fly at SOU at weekends. Conflating that with the SOU runway extension is a stretch, to put it mildly.

How many aircraft do you need to park at LCY Saturday night ready for Sunday lunchtime departures from LCY in August?

[gkmeech]

It is definitely in progress. You just can’t see anything happening yet.

[adfly]

Emerald/Aer Lingus are increasing Dublin to 13x weekly next summer (2x ex. Sat). Belfast City is not yet on sale for the summer.

[Sotonsean]

Does anyone know the reason why flight LM327 from Edinburgh that was due to arrive at Southampton at 19.25 last night (Friday) diverted to Bournemouth.

The reason why I ask is that I had noticed that it had diverted on the Southampton Airport arrivals screen.

[Albert Hall]

Pretty foggy in areas last night - would guess it was low vis related.

[dixi188]

One of the problems SOU will always face is the lack of Cat III ILS. I think there is not enough space and too much metal around to allow a protected area.
The fog occurs as the airport is right next to the river Itchen and in a shallow valley.
When I worked there 2017-19 there were a number of occasions when all or most evening arrivals diverted. Not good for the passengers and not good for the morning departures, ie. no aircraft.

[TartinTon]

How many aircraft do you need to park at LCY Saturday night ready for Sunday lunchtime departures from LCY in August?

In theory 0 if you'e got enough alternatives elsewhere Sat pm and Sun am to then operate back in on the first wave(s) Sunday lunchtime.

[TCAS FAN]

One of the problems SOU will always face is the lack of Cat III ILS. I think there is not enough space and too much metal around to allow a protected area.

As indicated in my post 996, the future for SOU is GPS based RNAV-LPV instrument approach procedures for RWY 02, and also 20. All it needs is the UK government to sort out access to EGNOS or an alternative satellite system to provide the required signal augmentation necessary for LPV accuracy.

Apart from restoring the lower approach minima that was available for RWY 02 prior to June 2021 with LPV IAP, there is a possibility that lower minima for RWY 20 may be possible, albeit with some improvements to approach lighting and other ground based infrastructure.

CAT III will never be available at SOU, but on the rare occasions that it is needed does it not make business sense for someone less than a 45 minutes drive away to have all the expense of providing it for you, at no cost?

[adfly]

Emerald/Aer Lingus are increasing Dublin to 13x weekly next summer (2x ex. Sat). Belfast City is not yet on sale for the summer.
Belfast City now on sale - also 13 weekly at very similar times.

[TCAS FAN]

With the current speculation as to whether or not the runway extension work has commenced, I offer the following observations, and one suggestion.

While there may be some preparatory work in progress, the planning and execution of the project is strictly regulated by a CAA aerodrome development process, as set out in CAP 791.

As a runway extension is classified IAW CAP 791 as a “major” development there are multiple regulatory hoops through which AGS must negotiate, and pay the CAA for the privilege of doing so!

First hoop, before any work can commence, is CAA approval of the overall project planning and execution plan.

The CAA are not renowned for their speed of work, so hopefully the CAP 791 process has already been commenced by AGS.

Part of the planning process is recognition of the impact that the construction work will have on any aircraft movements, and putting in place mitigation measures to ensure that they can safely continue.

An overview of the project, its scheduling and its temporary impact on aircraft movements will be most likely be set out in a UK AIP Supplement, which itself may have short term issues highlighted or notified via NOTAM as the project progresses.

When the AIP Supplement is published it can be accessed online via:

https://nats-uk.ead-it.com/cms-nats/opencms/en/Publications/aip-supplements/

AIP Supplements are published every 28 days. As of today nothing is currently shown. The next batch of Supplements are due for publication on 17 November.

Quite apart from the formal notification of the date that work will commence, I would think that the AGS media organisation will not miss the opportunity to have some symbolic turf cutting ceremony. or similar, immediately before construction starts.

My suggestion? Maybe the BOH Airport Managing Director could be invited to do it?

[RW20]

TCAS FAN,
Thanks for your continued assessment on the proposed runway extension.
First of all the airport manager has stressed that work will hopefully commence in 2023,but with no specific date,however he stressed that finding the workforce might present some problems.
I've looked at the actual work that's going on today,and it appears that some perimeter wooden fencing is being installed,but that's all!
With the on going economic situation it's not clear when SOU will see the benefits of the runway extension,certainly not in 2023.
Clearly the airport is loosing a lot of money due to low Paxs compared to recent times. This can't be allowed to be continued,so it's get on with the runway improvements,or
accept the airport is not viable in the long term.

[Buster the Bear]

I cannot imagine the capital expenditure on the extension without a nod from an airline, or airlines that post construction, they will base airframes, or operate daily multiple rotations?

[SKOJB]

I cannot imagine the capital expenditure on the extension without a nod from an airline, or airlines that post construction, they will base airframes, or operate daily multiple rotations?

Which is why EZY will most likely be straight in with PMI/AGP/FAO non based summer flying

[LTNman]

TCAS FAN,

With the on going economic situation it's not clear when SOU will see the benefits of the runway extension,certainly not in 2023.
Clearly the airport is loosing a lot of money due to low Paxs compared to recent times. This can't be allowed to be continued,so it's get on with the runway improvements, or accept the airport is not viable in the long term.

I can remember folk here used to compare Southampton with the longer runway Southend that was booming at the time. Well it is not booming now, which is always worth remembering.

[stewyb]

I can remember folk here used to compare Southampton with the longer runway Southend that was booming at the time. Well it is not booming now, which is always worth remembering.

If you think SOU is going to revert to how SEN is now, then you are very much mistaken. SOU is doing ok, not great not bad. Aer Lingus are going double daily with BHD & DUB whilst KLM go double daily on 30/10 to AMS and with BE likely to increase its footprint, things are ticking along with 6/700k pax per annum. I do however agree that the runway extension must be a priority and don’t think the airport has 12 months to ponder before it can open the new tarmac. Financial losses will continue to build so as RW20 suggests, they need to get on with it PDQ!

[LTNman]

The point I was making is that a longer runway does not necessarily mean the airport will find the routes and aircraft that need that extra length to pay off the debt.

[RW20]

The point I was making is that a longer runway does not necessarily mean the airport will find the routes and aircraft that need that extra length to pay off the debt.
Absolutely,but without the extension I don't believe the airport can survive long term.
Summer routes are needed from A320s,not 190sr, notice to airport management get this done!

[Skipness One Foxtrot]

Why can't the airport survive long term without multiple A320s per day? I mean that busines model worked a treat for PIK, SEN, MME and DSA among others. I sometimes think that #avgeeks only see their local airport in terms of other airports. It's actually possible to be a succesful niche business, not glamorous but possible to make money.
If you scale up, you need to keep running at scale to turn a profit, when the first downturn hits, consolidation (to LGW in this case) will kill you as your cost base is massively out of kilter to your traffic.

[Albert Hall]

The talk of SOU's financial position appears to be all based around passenger volume.

If passenger volume is roughly half of what it was before, but each airline is paying SOU double what Flybe did, then aviation income will be about the same. Ancillary revenue from spend and car parking will be down probably by the same proportion as passenger volume. On a 50/50 split of ancillary and aviation income then the airport's total take is about 25% lower than it was before.

If you then look at costs, the airport is running with around one third less staff than it did before.

I don't think the equation will be good or great, far from it. But I also would be surprised if it's burning money quite as quickly as some might think.

[RW20]

Albert Hall ,the airport manager has informed us that the airport is currently losing over 4 million a year,this is the reality,and in today's world that is a major concern.
as stated earlier the runway extension is the one thing that could give the airport a survival ticket,there are going to be regional airport casualties over the next few years,we don't want SOU to be one of them!

[Flitefone]

The Airport’s financial reports are in the public domain. - using companies house filings. It made more than £11m profit in 2018 on a revenue of £30m or so - a good business - but since then has lost heavily:

2019 - £2.3m
2020. -£17.1m
2021 - £9.2m

That’s near £30m of losses in the past 3 years, not counting the 2022 result (also more than likely negative)

That’s not going to help the balance sheet in any business.

It will be interesting to see what the owners do about that. Obviously a return to 2018 performance is desirable, but equally unlikely in the near term.

FF

[RW20]

Thanks for highlighting just how precarious the position the airport is in.
Regional connects arnt going to reverse the situation, fingers crossed the extension is done asap to give the airport.A chance

[SWBKCB]

Thanks for highlighting just how precarious the position the airport is in.
Regional connects arnt going to reverse the situation, fingers crossed the extension is done asap to give the airport.A chance

So how was the 2018 profit made?

[SWBKCB]

Why can't the airport survive long term without multiple A320s per day? I mean that busines model worked a treat for PIK, SEN, MME and DSA among others.

Am I missing the joke here? These are examples of how to make money as a regional airport?

[Swan737]

Rumor has it Sou staff will be going on strike for 3 days in November!!!!

[Flitefone]

Extracts from a new report by CAPA

FF

The demise of the UK (https://link.centreforaviation.com/f/a/Sm3qkzvfIr92RRQnTuyKiw~~/AAETtQA~/RgRlOMu5P0SAaHR0cHM6Ly9jZW50cmVmb3JhdmlhdGlvbi5jb20vZGF0YS9w cm9maWxlcy9jb3VudHJpZXMvdW5pdGVkLWtpbmdkb20_dXRtX3NvdXJjZT1j YXBhJnV0bV9tZWRpdW09ZW1haWwmdXRtX2NhbXBhaWduPUNBUEElMjBBbGVy dHNXA3NwY0IKY1Y5mFdjl2oP5lIdZXZlcnlvbmVAc2t5bGlnaHRhdmlhdGlv bi5jb21YBAAAAAA~)’s Doncaster-Sheffield Airport (https://link.centreforaviation.com/f/a/ZjkBB7Ubj1xZJxn_rsWxHg~~/AAETtQA~/RgRlOMu5P0SQaHR0cHM6Ly9jZW50cmVmb3JhdmlhdGlvbi5jb20vZGF0YS9w cm9maWxlcy9haXJwb3J0cy9kb25jYXN0ZXItc2hlZmZpZWxkLWFpcnBvcnQt ZHNhP3V0bV9zb3VyY2U9Y2FwYSZ1dG1fbWVkaXVtPWVtYWlsJnV0bV9jYW1w YWlnbj1DQVBBJTIwQWxlcnRzVwNzcGNCCmNWOZhXY5dqD-ZSHWV2ZXJ5b25lQHNreWxpZ2h0YXZpYXRpb24uY29tWAQAAAAA) must have set many municipal authorities’ nerves on edge. Now Southampton Airport (https://link.centreforaviation.com/f/a/cYsYXu0U9TAgCgpAuB-Gqg~~/AAETtQA~/RgRlOMu5P0SIaHR0cHM6Ly9jZW50cmVmb3JhdmlhdGlvbi5jb20vZGF0YS9w cm9maWxlcy9haXJwb3J0cy9zb3V0aGFtcHRvbi1haXJwb3J0LXNvdT91dG1f c291cmNlPWNhcGEmdXRtX21lZGl1bT1lbWFpbCZ1dG1fY2FtcGFpZ249Q0FQ QSUyMEFsZXJ0c1cDc3BjQgpjVjmYV2OXag_mUh1ldmVyeW9uZUBza3lsaWdo dGF2aWF0aW9uLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~) on the English south coast says it will need to build back up quickly to at least 1.2 million passengers annually if it is to survive – while it will lose GBP4.5 million this year.

Candidly, the management admits it doesn’t deserve to survive if it cannot make money.

The remedy appears to be a runway extension on which work should begin in 2023, the usual objections having been overcome in the courts.

But supply doesn’t necessarily equate with demand, and with competitors for its catchment area – including the two London giants that are Heathrow (https://link.centreforaviation.com/f/a/09H9SwYmQ3Fgw8exk9xfEQ~~/AAETtQA~/RgRlOMu5P0SMaHR0cHM6Ly9jZW50cmVmb3JhdmlhdGlvbi5jb20vZGF0YS9w cm9maWxlcy9haXJwb3J0cy9sb25kb24taGVhdGhyb3ctYWlycG9ydC1saHI_ dXRtX3NvdXJjZT1jYXBhJnV0bV9tZWRpdW09ZW1haWwmdXRtX2NhbXBhaWdu PUNBUEElMjBBbGVydHNXA3NwY0IKY1Y5mFdjl2oP5lIdZXZlcnlvbmVAc2t5 bGlnaHRhdmlhdGlvbi5jb21YBAAAAAA~) and Gatwick (https://link.centreforaviation.com/f/a/Na4Uf9wdJX6tHHRGtIldVw~~/AAETtQA~/RgRlOMu5P0SLaHR0cHM6Ly9jZW50cmVmb3JhdmlhdGlvbi5jb20vZGF0YS9w cm9maWxlcy9haXJwb3J0cy9sb25kb24tZ2F0d2ljay1haXJwb3J0LWxndz91 dG1fc291cmNlPWNhcGEmdXRtX21lZGl1bT1lbWFpbCZ1dG1fY2FtcGFpZ249 Q0FQQSUyMEFsZXJ0c1cDc3BjQgpjVjmYV2OXag_mUh1ldmVyeW9uZUBza3ls aWdodGF2aWF0aW9uLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~), as well as Bournemouth (https://link.centreforaviation.com/f/a/Ge5neTx7T1En97IztUSMww~~/AAETtQA~/RgRlOMu5P0SIaHR0cHM6Ly9jZW50cmVmb3JhdmlhdGlvbi5jb20vZGF0YS9w cm9maWxlcy9haXJwb3J0cy9ib3VybmVtb3V0aC1haXJwb3J0LWJvaD91dG1f c291cmNlPWNhcGEmdXRtX21lZGl1bT1lbWFpbCZ1dG1fY2FtcGFpZ249Q0FQ QSUyMEFsZXJ0c1cDc3BjQgpjVjmYV2OXag_mUh1ldmVyeW9uZUBza3lsaWdo dGF2aWF0aW9uLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~), 30 miles to the west – there is much work to do just to get Southampton (https://link.centreforaviation.com/f/a/cYsYXu0U9TAgCgpAuB-Gqg~~/AAETtQA~/RgRlOMu5P0SIaHR0cHM6Ly9jZW50cmVmb3JhdmlhdGlvbi5jb20vZGF0YS9w cm9maWxlcy9haXJwb3J0cy9zb3V0aGFtcHRvbi1haXJwb3J0LXNvdT91dG1f c291cmNlPWNhcGEmdXRtX21lZGl1bT1lbWFpbCZ1dG1fY2FtcGFpZ249Q0FQ QSUyMEFsZXJ0c1cDc3BjQgpjVjmYV2OXag_mUh1ldmVyeW9uZUBza3lsaWdo dGF2aWF0aW9uLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~) back to pre-pandemic levels.

This is part one of a two-part report.

Summary

Following hard on the news of the impending closure of Doncaster-Sheffield (https://link.centreforaviation.com/f/a/ZjkBB7Ubj1xZJxn_rsWxHg~~/AAETtQA~/RgRlOMu5P0SQaHR0cHM6Ly9jZW50cmVmb3JhdmlhdGlvbi5jb20vZGF0YS9w cm9maWxlcy9haXJwb3J0cy9kb25jYXN0ZXItc2hlZmZpZWxkLWFpcnBvcnQt ZHNhP3V0bV9zb3VyY2U9Y2FwYSZ1dG1fbWVkaXVtPWVtYWlsJnV0bV9jYW1w YWlnbj1DQVBBJTIwQWxlcnRzVwNzcGNCCmNWOZhXY5dqD-ZSHWV2ZXJ5b25lQHNreWxpZ2h0YXZpYXRpb24uY29tWAQAAAAA) airport, Southampton Airport (https://link.centreforaviation.com/f/a/cYsYXu0U9TAgCgpAuB-Gqg~~/AAETtQA~/RgRlOMu5P0SIaHR0cHM6Ly9jZW50cmVmb3JhdmlhdGlvbi5jb20vZGF0YS9w cm9maWxlcy9haXJwb3J0cy9zb3V0aGFtcHRvbi1haXJwb3J0LXNvdT91dG1f c291cmNlPWNhcGEmdXRtX21lZGl1bT1lbWFpbCZ1dG1fY2FtcGFpZ249Q0FQ QSUyMEFsZXJ0c1cDc3BjQgpjVjmYV2OXag_mUh1ldmVyeW9uZUBza3lsaWdo dGF2aWF0aW9uLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~) says it needs 1.2 million annual passengers to survive.
Southampton Airport (https://link.centreforaviation.com/f/a/cYsYXu0U9TAgCgpAuB-Gqg~~/AAETtQA~/RgRlOMu5P0SIaHR0cHM6Ly9jZW50cmVmb3JhdmlhdGlvbi5jb20vZGF0YS9w cm9maWxlcy9haXJwb3J0cy9zb3V0aGFtcHRvbi1haXJwb3J0LXNvdT91dG1f c291cmNlPWNhcGEmdXRtX21lZGl1bT1lbWFpbCZ1dG1fY2FtcGFpZ249Q0FQ QSUyMEFsZXJ0c1cDc3BjQgpjVjmYV2OXag_mUh1ldmVyeW9uZUBza3lsaWdo dGF2aWF0aW9uLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~) says that it will lose GBP4.5 million this year.
But the airport remains confident that a runway extension will get it back on track, as it will be able to attract A320 (https://link.centreforaviation.com/f/a/PITyyUYw0w0vTc5C5g_z2g~~/AAETtQA~/RgRlOMu5P0R1aHR0cHM6Ly9jZW50cmVmb3JhdmlhdGlvbi5jb20vZGF0YS9w cm9maWxlcy9haXJjcmFmdC9hMzIwP3V0bV9zb3VyY2U9Y2FwYSZ1dG1fbWVk aXVtPWVtYWlsJnV0bV9jYW1wYWlnbj1DQVBBJTIwQWxlcnRzVwNzcGNCCmNW OZhXY5dqD-ZSHWV2ZXJ5b25lQHNreWxpZ2h0YXZpYXRpb24uY29tWAQAAAAA)-size jets.
Southampton Airport (https://link.centreforaviation.com/f/a/cYsYXu0U9TAgCgpAuB-Gqg~~/AAETtQA~/RgRlOMu5P0SIaHR0cHM6Ly9jZW50cmVmb3JhdmlhdGlvbi5jb20vZGF0YS9w cm9maWxlcy9haXJwb3J0cy9zb3V0aGFtcHRvbi1haXJwb3J0LXNvdT91dG1f c291cmNlPWNhcGEmdXRtX21lZGl1bT1lbWFpbCZ1dG1fY2FtcGFpZ249Q0FQ QSUyMEFsZXJ0c1cDc3BjQgpjVjmYV2OXag_mUh1ldmVyeW9uZUBza3lsaWdo dGF2aWF0aW9uLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~) lags the UK (https://link.centreforaviation.com/f/a/Sm3qkzvfIr92RRQnTuyKiw~~/AAETtQA~/RgRlOMu5P0SAaHR0cHM6Ly9jZW50cmVmb3JhdmlhdGlvbi5jb20vZGF0YS9w cm9maWxlcy9jb3VudHJpZXMvdW5pdGVkLWtpbmdkb20_dXRtX3NvdXJjZT1j YXBhJnV0bV9tZWRpdW09ZW1haWwmdXRtX2NhbXBhaWduPUNBUEElMjBBbGVy dHNXA3NwY0IKY1Y5mFdjl2oP5lIdZXZlcnlvbmVAc2t5bGlnaHRhdmlhdGlv bi5jb21YBAAAAAA~) average for seat capacity rebound.
Around 1.2 million passengers annually needed to break even: airport targets 3 million.

Many UK (https://link.centreforaviation.com/f/a/Sm3qkzvfIr92RRQnTuyKiw~~/AAETtQA~/RgRlOMu5P0SAaHR0cHM6Ly9jZW50cmVmb3JhdmlhdGlvbi5jb20vZGF0YS9w cm9maWxlcy9jb3VudHJpZXMvdW5pdGVkLWtpbmdkb20_dXRtX3NvdXJjZT1j YXBhJnV0bV9tZWRpdW09ZW1haWwmdXRtX2NhbXBhaWduPUNBUEElMjBBbGVy dHNXA3NwY0IKY1Y5mFdjl2oP5lIdZXZlcnlvbmVAc2t5bGlnaHRhdmlhdGlv bi5jb21YBAAAAAA~) airport operators concerned with events at Doncaster-Sheffield (https://link.centreforaviation.com/f/a/ZjkBB7Ubj1xZJxn_rsWxHg~~/AAETtQA~/RgRlOMu5P0SQaHR0cHM6Ly9jZW50cmVmb3JhdmlhdGlvbi5jb20vZGF0YS9w cm9maWxlcy9haXJwb3J0cy9kb25jYXN0ZXItc2hlZmZpZWxkLWFpcnBvcnQt ZHNhP3V0bV9zb3VyY2U9Y2FwYSZ1dG1fbWVkaXVtPWVtYWlsJnV0bV9jYW1w YWlnbj1DQVBBJTIwQWxlcnRzVwNzcGNCCmNWOZhXY5dqD-ZSHWV2ZXJ5b25lQHNreWxpZ2h0YXZpYXRpb24uY29tWAQAAAAA)

Several weeks ago the CAPA report UK’s Doncaster-Sheffield Airport to close? Alternative use options discussed (https://link.centreforaviation.com/f/a/6bzVrjGeTw2sXWP1gUxuiw~~/AAETtQA~/RgRlOMu5P0S8aHR0cHM6Ly9jZW50cmVmb3JhdmlhdGlvbi5jb20vYW5hbHlz aXMvcmVwb3J0cy91a3MtZG9uY2FzdGVyLXNoZWZmaWVsZC1haXJwb3J0LXRv LWNsb3NlLWFsdGVybmF0aXZlLXVzZS1vcHRpb25zLWRpc2N1c3NlZC02MTYz MzM_dXRtX3NvdXJjZT1jYXBhJnV0bV9tZWRpdW09ZW1haWwmdXRtX2NhbXBh aWduPUNBUEElMjBBbGVydHNXA3NwY0IKY1Y5mFdjl2oP5lIdZXZlcnlvbmVA c2t5bGlnaHRhdmlhdGlvbi5jb21YBAAAAAA~) went into some detail about the proposed closure of Doncaster-Sheffield Airport (https://link.centreforaviation.com/f/a/ZjkBB7Ubj1xZJxn_rsWxHg~~/AAETtQA~/RgRlOMu5P0SQaHR0cHM6Ly9jZW50cmVmb3JhdmlhdGlvbi5jb20vZGF0YS9w cm9maWxlcy9haXJwb3J0cy9kb25jYXN0ZXItc2hlZmZpZWxkLWFpcnBvcnQt ZHNhP3V0bV9zb3VyY2U9Y2FwYSZ1dG1fbWVkaXVtPWVtYWlsJnV0bV9jYW1w YWlnbj1DQVBBJTIwQWxlcnRzVwNzcGNCCmNWOZhXY5dqD-ZSHWV2ZXJ5b25lQHNreWxpZ2h0YXZpYXRpb24uY29tWAQAAAAA) in the north of England and the reasons behind it.

That appears now to be a fait accompli, with the airport’s owners, the Peel Group (https://link.centreforaviation.com/f/a/ApemlxqcIncg6X_l6DexdA~~/AAETtQA~/RgRlOMu5P0SMaHR0cHM6Ly9jZW50cmVmb3JhdmlhdGlvbi5jb20vZGF0YS9w cm9maWxlcy9pbnZlc3Rvci9wZWVsLWFpcnBvcnRzLXBlZWwtaG9sZGluZ3M_ dXRtX3NvdXJjZT1jYXBhJnV0bV9tZWRpdW09ZW1haWwmdXRtX2NhbXBhaWdu PUNBUEElMjBBbGVydHNXA3NwY0IKY1Y5mFdjl2oP5lIdZXZlcnlvbmVAc2t5 bGlnaHRhdmlhdGlvbi5jb21YBAAAAAA~), declaring on 26-Sep-2022 that it had plans to start suspending commercial operations there from 31-Oct-2022, owing to the airport's "fundamental and insufficient lack of current or prospective revenue streams". And despite the South Yorkshire Mayoral Combined Authority stating on 14-Sep that it had secured a "credible consortium interested in operating" the airport.

The new UK (https://link.centreforaviation.com/f/a/Sm3qkzvfIr92RRQnTuyKiw~~/AAETtQA~/RgRlOMu5P0SAaHR0cHM6Ly9jZW50cmVmb3JhdmlhdGlvbi5jb20vZGF0YS9w cm9maWxlcy9jb3VudHJpZXMvdW5pdGVkLWtpbmdkb20_dXRtX3NvdXJjZT1j YXBhJnV0bV9tZWRpdW09ZW1haWwmdXRtX2NhbXBhaWduPUNBUEElMjBBbGVy dHNXA3NwY0IKY1Y5mFdjl2oP5lIdZXZlcnlvbmVAc2t5bGlnaHRhdmlhdGlv bi5jb21YBAAAAAA~) Prime Minister Liz Truss is reported to have said that the government would “protect” the airport, but that “protection” could be a long time coming – if indeed it arrives at all.

Many municipal authorities across the UK (https://link.centreforaviation.com/f/a/Sm3qkzvfIr92RRQnTuyKiw~~/AAETtQA~/RgRlOMu5P0SAaHR0cHM6Ly9jZW50cmVmb3JhdmlhdGlvbi5jb20vZGF0YS9w cm9maWxlcy9jb3VudHJpZXMvdW5pdGVkLWtpbmdkb20_dXRtX3NvdXJjZT1j YXBhJnV0bV9tZWRpdW09ZW1haWwmdXRtX2NhbXBhaWduPUNBUEElMjBBbGVy dHNXA3NwY0IKY1Y5mFdjl2oP5lIdZXZlcnlvbmVAc2t5bGlnaHRhdmlhdGlv bi5jb21YBAAAAAA~) and further afield must be concerned at this development where they have leased or sold their airport to a private sector operator, which is most of them.



Airport land value can be extremely high

London City Airport (https://link.centreforaviation.com/f/a/qDHj1MJ21_vPflupczuS0w~~/AAETtQA~/RgRlOMu5P0SIaHR0cHM6Ly9jZW50cmVmb3JhdmlhdGlvbi5jb20vZGF0YS9w cm9maWxlcy9haXJwb3J0cy9sb25kb24tY2l0eS1haXJwb3J0LWxjeT91dG1f c291cmNlPWNhcGEmdXRtX21lZGl1bT1lbWFpbCZ1dG1fY2FtcGFpZ249Q0FQ QSUyMEFsZXJ0c1cDc3BjQgpjVjmYV2OXag_mUh1ldmVyeW9uZUBza3lsaWdo dGF2aWF0aW9uLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~) is a case in point.

The airport being owned by a consortium of mainly foreign pension funds, which tend to take a hands-off approach to management, the value of the land there for housing alone (if the airport were ever to be deemed unviable) would be extremely high, which partly explains the very high and ever-increasing sale price whenever it changes hands.

Meanwhile, Doncaster-Sheffield (https://link.centreforaviation.com/f/a/ZjkBB7Ubj1xZJxn_rsWxHg~~/AAETtQA~/RgRlOMu5P0SQaHR0cHM6Ly9jZW50cmVmb3JhdmlhdGlvbi5jb20vZGF0YS9w cm9maWxlcy9haXJwb3J0cy9kb25jYXN0ZXItc2hlZmZpZWxkLWFpcnBvcnQt ZHNhP3V0bV9zb3VyY2U9Y2FwYSZ1dG1fbWVkaXVtPWVtYWlsJnV0bV9jYW1w YWlnbj1DQVBBJTIwQWxlcnRzVwNzcGNCCmNWOZhXY5dqD-ZSHWV2ZXJ5b25lQHNreWxpZ2h0YXZpYXRpb24uY29tWAQAAAAA) is already partly developed as business park, with plenty of room for more, and is within 20 minutes of five motorways.

Southampton Airport (https://link.centreforaviation.com/f/a/cYsYXu0U9TAgCgpAuB-Gqg~~/AAETtQA~/RgRlOMu5P0SIaHR0cHM6Ly9jZW50cmVmb3JhdmlhdGlvbi5jb20vZGF0YS9w cm9maWxlcy9haXJwb3J0cy9zb3V0aGFtcHRvbi1haXJwb3J0LXNvdT91dG1f c291cmNlPWNhcGEmdXRtX21lZGl1bT1lbWFpbCZ1dG1fY2FtcGFpZ249Q0FQ QSUyMEFsZXJ0c1cDc3BjQgpjVjmYV2OXag_mUh1ldmVyeW9uZUBza3lsaWdo dGF2aWF0aW9uLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~) anticipates a GBP4.5 million loss in 2022, but the future is rosier

So that concern must also be felt on the English south coast at Southampton Airport (https://link.centreforaviation.com/f/a/cYsYXu0U9TAgCgpAuB-Gqg~~/AAETtQA~/RgRlOMu5P0SIaHR0cHM6Ly9jZW50cmVmb3JhdmlhdGlvbi5jb20vZGF0YS9w cm9maWxlcy9haXJwb3J0cy9zb3V0aGFtcHRvbi1haXJwb3J0LXNvdT91dG1f c291cmNlPWNhcGEmdXRtX21lZGl1bT1lbWFpbCZ1dG1fY2FtcGFpZ249Q0FQ QSUyMEFsZXJ0c1cDc3BjQgpjVjmYV2OXag_mUh1ldmVyeW9uZUBza3lsaWdo dGF2aWF0aW9uLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~), once part of BAA (https://link.centreforaviation.com/f/a/AUa_d0dXNlYMDAicrg7fFg~~/AAETtQA~/RgRlOMu5P0SbaHR0cHM6Ly9jZW50cmVmb3JhdmlhdGlvbi5jb20vZGF0YS9w cm9maWxlcy9pbnZlc3Rvci9oZWF0aHJvdy1haXJwb3J0LWhvbGRpbmdzLWx0 ZC1mb3JtZXJseS1iYWE_dXRtX3NvdXJjZT1jYXBhJnV0bV9tZWRpdW09ZW1h aWwmdXRtX2NhbXBhaWduPUNBUEElMjBBbGVydHNXA3NwY0IKY1Y5mFdjl2oP 5lIdZXZlcnlvbmVAc2t5bGlnaHRhdmlhdGlvbi5jb21YBAAAAAA~) plc and latterly owned by AGS Airports (https://link.centreforaviation.com/f/a/tOtzCog9NQn15OnCzTfdAQ~~/AAETtQA~/RgRlOMu5P0R9aHR0cHM6Ly9jZW50cmVmb3JhdmlhdGlvbi5jb20vZGF0YS9w cm9maWxlcy9pbnZlc3Rvci9hZ3MtYWlycG9ydHM_dXRtX3NvdXJjZT1jYXBh JnV0bV9tZWRpdW09ZW1haWwmdXRtX2NhbXBhaWduPUNBUEElMjBBbGVydHNX A3NwY0IKY1Y5mFdjl2oP5lIdZXZlcnlvbmVAc2t5bGlnaHRhdmlhdGlvbi5j b21YBAAAAAA~) – a consortium of Spain (https://link.centreforaviation.com/f/a/-Q9T0xuxU4Dc3Z-HehtZRw~~/AAETtQA~/RgRlOMu5P0R3aHR0cHM6Ly9jZW50cmVmb3JhdmlhdGlvbi5jb20vZGF0YS9w cm9maWxlcy9jb3VudHJpZXMvc3BhaW4_dXRtX3NvdXJjZT1jYXBhJnV0bV9t ZWRpdW09ZW1haWwmdXRtX2NhbXBhaWduPUNBUEElMjBBbGVydHNXA3NwY0IK Y1Y5mFdjl2oP5lIdZXZlcnlvbmVAc2t5bGlnaHRhdmlhdGlvbi5jb21YBAAA AAA~)’s Ferrovial (https://link.centreforaviation.com/f/a/H-V6tDy3WaApGAxQeEKaug~~/AAETtQA~/RgRlOMu5P0SMaHR0cHM6Ly9jZW50cmVmb3JhdmlhdGlvbi5jb20vZGF0YS9w cm9maWxlcy9pbnZlc3Rvci9ncnVwby1mZXJyb3ZpYWwtYWVyb3B1ZXJ0b3M_ dXRtX3NvdXJjZT1jYXBhJnV0bV9tZWRpdW09ZW1haWwmdXRtX2NhbXBhaWdu PUNBUEElMjBBbGVydHNXA3NwY0IKY1Y5mFdjl2oP5lIdZXZlcnlvbmVAc2t5 bGlnaHRhdmlhdGlvbi5jb21YBAAAAAA~) S.A. and Australia (https://link.centreforaviation.com/f/a/sti_QP_pKqqqe0NaymW3lw~~/AAETtQA~/RgRlOMu5P0R7aHR0cHM6Ly9jZW50cmVmb3JhdmlhdGlvbi5jb20vZGF0YS9w cm9maWxlcy9jb3VudHJpZXMvYXVzdHJhbGlhP3V0bV9zb3VyY2U9Y2FwYSZ1 dG1fbWVkaXVtPWVtYWlsJnV0bV9jYW1wYWlnbj1DQVBBJTIwQWxlcnRzVwNz cGNCCmNWOZhXY5dqD-ZSHWV2ZXJ5b25lQHNreWxpZ2h0YXZpYXRpb24uY29tWAQAAAAA)’s Macquarie Infrastructure and Real Assets (https://link.centreforaviation.com/f/a/e1y3t-xyvJDbGeVkZ9j4cQ~~/AAETtQA~/RgRlOMu5P0SAaHR0cHM6Ly9jZW50cmVmb3JhdmlhdGlvbi5jb20vZGF0YS9w cm9maWxlcy9pbnZlc3Rvci9tYWNxdWFyaWUtZ3JvdXA_dXRtX3NvdXJjZT1j YXBhJnV0bV9tZWRpdW09ZW1haWwmdXRtX2NhbXBhaWduPUNBUEElMjBBbGVy dHNXA3NwY0IKY1Y5mFdjl2oP5lIdZXZlcnlvbmVAc2t5bGlnaHRhdmlhdGlv bi5jb21YBAAAAAA~). The ‘A’ and ‘G’ of AGS are Aberdeen (https://link.centreforaviation.com/f/a/yINUgDNEdjjQSI8-LXDo-g~~/AAETtQA~/RgRlOMu5P0STaHR0cHM6Ly9jZW50cmVmb3JhdmlhdGlvbi5jb20vZGF0YS9w cm9maWxlcy9haXJwb3J0cy9hYmVyZGVlbi1pbnRlcm5hdGlvbmFsLWFpcnBv cnQtYWJ6P3V0bV9zb3VyY2U9Y2FwYSZ1dG1fbWVkaXVtPWVtYWlsJnV0bV9j YW1wYWlnbj1DQVBBJTIwQWxlcnRzVwNzcGNCCmNWOZhXY5dqD-ZSHWV2ZXJ5b25lQHNreWxpZ2h0YXZpYXRpb24uY29tWAQAAAAA) and Glasgow International (https://link.centreforaviation.com/f/a/5FJV8eJmud6H59wNwRdA5Q~~/AAETtQA~/RgRlOMu5P0SEaHR0cHM6Ly9jZW50cmVmb3JhdmlhdGlvbi5jb20vZGF0YS9w cm9maWxlcy9haXJwb3J0cy9nbGFzZ293LWFpcnBvcnQtZ2xhP3V0bV9zb3Vy Y2U9Y2FwYSZ1dG1fbWVkaXVtPWVtYWlsJnV0bV9jYW1wYWlnbj1DQVBBJTIw QWxlcnRzVwNzcGNCCmNWOZhXY5dqD-ZSHWV2ZXJ5b25lQHNreWxpZ2h0YXZpYXRpb24uY29tWAQAAAAA) Airports, which complete the group.

Southampton Airport (https://link.centreforaviation.com/f/a/cYsYXu0U9TAgCgpAuB-Gqg~~/AAETtQA~/RgRlOMu5P0SIaHR0cHM6Ly9jZW50cmVmb3JhdmlhdGlvbi5jb20vZGF0YS9w cm9maWxlcy9haXJwb3J0cy9zb3V0aGFtcHRvbi1haXJwb3J0LXNvdT91dG1f c291cmNlPWNhcGEmdXRtX21lZGl1bT1lbWFpbCZ1dG1fY2FtcGFpZ249Q0FQ QSUyMEFsZXJ0c1cDc3BjQgpjVjmYV2OXag_mUh1ldmVyeW9uZUBza3lsaWdo dGF2aWF0aW9uLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~)’s operations director Steve Szalay said recently that the airport was likely to record a GBP4.5 million loss in 2022 (slightly down from an earlier estimate), when most other British airports are indicating that they anticipate an operating profit (if only a small one).

It must be said straight away that there is no suggestion that the same fate experienced by Doncaster-Sheffield Airport (https://link.centreforaviation.com/f/a/ZjkBB7Ubj1xZJxn_rsWxHg~~/AAETtQA~/RgRlOMu5P0SQaHR0cHM6Ly9jZW50cmVmb3JhdmlhdGlvbi5jb20vZGF0YS9w cm9maWxlcy9haXJwb3J0cy9kb25jYXN0ZXItc2hlZmZpZWxkLWFpcnBvcnQt ZHNhP3V0bV9zb3VyY2U9Y2FwYSZ1dG1fbWVkaXVtPWVtYWlsJnV0bV9jYW1w YWlnbj1DQVBBJTIwQWxlcnRzVwNzcGNCCmNWOZhXY5dqD-ZSHWV2ZXJ5b25lQHNreWxpZ2h0YXZpYXRpb24uY29tWAQAAAAA) awaits Southampton (https://link.centreforaviation.com/f/a/cYsYXu0U9TAgCgpAuB-Gqg~~/AAETtQA~/RgRlOMu5P0SIaHR0cHM6Ly9jZW50cmVmb3JhdmlhdGlvbi5jb20vZGF0YS9w cm9maWxlcy9haXJwb3J0cy9zb3V0aGFtcHRvbi1haXJwb3J0LXNvdT91dG1f c291cmNlPWNhcGEmdXRtX21lZGl1bT1lbWFpbCZ1dG1fY2FtcGFpZ249Q0FQ QSUyMEFsZXJ0c1cDc3BjQgpjVjmYV2OXag_mUh1ldmVyeW9uZUBza3lsaWdo dGF2aWF0aW9uLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~), and indeed, the opportunities there are at least equal to the threats. Both its owners are extremely well capitalised.

But then again, so is Peel Holdings (https://link.centreforaviation.com/f/a/ApemlxqcIncg6X_l6DexdA~~/AAETtQA~/RgRlOMu5P0SMaHR0cHM6Ly9jZW50cmVmb3JhdmlhdGlvbi5jb20vZGF0YS9w cm9maWxlcy9pbnZlc3Rvci9wZWVsLWFpcnBvcnRzLXBlZWwtaG9sZGluZ3M_ dXRtX3NvdXJjZT1jYXBhJnV0bV9tZWRpdW09ZW1haWwmdXRtX2NhbXBhaWdu PUNBUEElMjBBbGVydHNXA3NwY0IKY1Y5mFdjl2oP5lIdZXZlcnlvbmVAc2t5 bGlnaHRhdmlhdGlvbi5jb21YBAAAAAA~) (British infrastructure and property investment business), and both Ferrovial (https://link.centreforaviation.com/f/a/H-V6tDy3WaApGAxQeEKaug~~/AAETtQA~/RgRlOMu5P0SMaHR0cHM6Ly9jZW50cmVmb3JhdmlhdGlvbi5jb20vZGF0YS9w cm9maWxlcy9pbnZlc3Rvci9ncnVwby1mZXJyb3ZpYWwtYWVyb3B1ZXJ0b3M_ dXRtX3NvdXJjZT1jYXBhJnV0bV9tZWRpdW09ZW1haWwmdXRtX2NhbXBhaWdu PUNBUEElMjBBbGVydHNXA3NwY0IKY1Y5mFdjl2oP5lIdZXZlcnlvbmVAc2t5 bGlnaHRhdmlhdGlvbi5jb21YBAAAAAA~) and Macquarie (https://link.centreforaviation.com/f/a/e1y3t-xyvJDbGeVkZ9j4cQ~~/AAETtQA~/RgRlOMu5P0SAaHR0cHM6Ly9jZW50cmVmb3JhdmlhdGlvbi5jb20vZGF0YS9w cm9maWxlcy9pbnZlc3Rvci9tYWNxdWFyaWUtZ3JvdXA_dXRtX3NvdXJjZT1j YXBhJnV0bV9tZWRpdW09ZW1haWwmdXRtX2NhbXBhaWduPUNBUEElMjBBbGVy dHNXA3NwY0IKY1Y5mFdjl2oP5lIdZXZlcnlvbmVAc2t5bGlnaHRhdmlhdGlv bi5jb21YBAAAAAA~) have a propensity to offload airports, or their share in them, as well as to take them on.

Indeed, recently there have been suggestions that Ferrovial (https://link.centreforaviation.com/f/a/H-V6tDy3WaApGAxQeEKaug~~/AAETtQA~/RgRlOMu5P0SMaHR0cHM6Ly9jZW50cmVmb3JhdmlhdGlvbi5jb20vZGF0YS9w cm9maWxlcy9pbnZlc3Rvci9ncnVwby1mZXJyb3ZpYWwtYWVyb3B1ZXJ0b3M_ dXRtX3NvdXJjZT1jYXBhJnV0bV9tZWRpdW09ZW1haWwmdXRtX2NhbXBhaWdu PUNBUEElMjBBbGVydHNXA3NwY0IKY1Y5mFdjl2oP5lIdZXZlcnlvbmVAc2t5 bGlnaHRhdmlhdGlvbi5jb21YBAAAAAA~) could give up part, or even all, of its majority equity in London Heathrow Airport (https://link.centreforaviation.com/f/a/09H9SwYmQ3Fgw8exk9xfEQ~~/AAETtQA~/RgRlOMu5P0SMaHR0cHM6Ly9jZW50cmVmb3JhdmlhdGlvbi5jb20vZGF0YS9w cm9maWxlcy9haXJwb3J0cy9sb25kb24taGVhdGhyb3ctYWlycG9ydC1saHI_ dXRtX3NvdXJjZT1jYXBhJnV0bV9tZWRpdW09ZW1haWwmdXRtX2NhbXBhaWdu PUNBUEElMjBBbGVydHNXA3NwY0IKY1Y5mFdjl2oP5lIdZXZlcnlvbmVAc2t5 bGlnaHRhdmlhdGlvbi5jb21YBAAAAAA~), as highlighted in the recent CAPA report: Ferrovial to sell stake in London Heathrow? Part one – French and Saudi interest in 25% ownership (https://link.centreforaviation.com/f/a/R4fruc7Z5bMyrFvt5pYgOA~~/AAETtQA~/RgRlOMu5P0TPaHR0cHM6Ly9jZW50cmVmb3JhdmlhdGlvbi5jb20vYW5hbHlz aXMvcmVwb3J0cy9mZXJyb3ZpYWwtdG8tc2VsbC1zdGFrZS1pbi1sb25kb24t aGVhdGhyb3ctcGFydC1vbmUtZnJlbmNoLWFuZC1zYXVkaS1pbnRlcmVzdC1p bi1zaGFyZWhvbGRpbmctNjE5NjQ5P3V0bV9zb3VyY2U9Y2FwYSZ1dG1fbWVk aXVtPWVtYWlsJnV0bV9jYW1wYWlnbj1DQVBBJTIwQWxlcnRzVwNzcGNCCmNW OZhXY5dqD-ZSHWV2ZXJ5b25lQHNreWxpZ2h0YXZpYXRpb24uY29tWAQAAAAA)

Southampton (https://link.centreforaviation.com/f/a/cYsYXu0U9TAgCgpAuB-Gqg~~/AAETtQA~/RgRlOMu5P0SIaHR0cHM6Ly9jZW50cmVmb3JhdmlhdGlvbi5jb20vZGF0YS9w cm9maWxlcy9haXJwb3J0cy9zb3V0aGFtcHRvbi1haXJwb3J0LXNvdT91dG1f c291cmNlPWNhcGEmdXRtX21lZGl1bT1lbWFpbCZ1dG1fY2FtcGFpZ249Q0FQ QSUyMEFsZXJ0c1cDc3BjQgpjVjmYV2OXag_mUh1ldmVyeW9uZUBza3lsaWdo dGF2aWF0aW9uLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~) lags UK (https://link.centreforaviation.com/f/a/Sm3qkzvfIr92RRQnTuyKiw~~/AAETtQA~/RgRlOMu5P0SAaHR0cHM6Ly9jZW50cmVmb3JhdmlhdGlvbi5jb20vZGF0YS9w cm9maWxlcy9jb3VudHJpZXMvdW5pdGVkLWtpbmdkb20_dXRtX3NvdXJjZT1j YXBhJnV0bV9tZWRpdW09ZW1haWwmdXRtX2NhbXBhaWduPUNBUEElMjBBbGVy dHNXA3NwY0IKY1Y5mFdjl2oP5lIdZXZlcnlvbmVAc2t5bGlnaHRhdmlhdGlv bi5jb21YBAAAAAA~) average for seat capacity rebound

Nevertheless, a loss during which air transport has come close to the same seat capacity levels and passenger business as 2019 in the UK (https://link.centreforaviation.com/f/a/Sm3qkzvfIr92RRQnTuyKiw~~/AAETtQA~/RgRlOMu5P0SAaHR0cHM6Ly9jZW50cmVmb3JhdmlhdGlvbi5jb20vZGF0YS9w cm9maWxlcy9jb3VudHJpZXMvdW5pdGVkLWtpbmdkb20_dXRtX3NvdXJjZT1j YXBhJnV0bV9tZWRpdW09ZW1haWwmdXRtX2NhbXBhaWduPUNBUEElMjBBbGVy dHNXA3NwY0IKY1Y5mFdjl2oP5lIdZXZlcnlvbmVAc2t5bGlnaHRhdmlhdGlv bi5jb21YBAAAAAA~) is worrying.

And unfortunately, Southampton (https://link.centreforaviation.com/f/a/cYsYXu0U9TAgCgpAuB-Gqg~~/AAETtQA~/RgRlOMu5P0SIaHR0cHM6Ly9jZW50cmVmb3JhdmlhdGlvbi5jb20vZGF0YS9w cm9maWxlcy9haXJwb3J0cy9zb3V0aGFtcHRvbi1haXJwb3J0LXNvdT91dG1f c291cmNlPWNhcGEmdXRtX21lZGl1bT1lbWFpbCZ1dG1fY2FtcGFpZ249Q0FQ QSUyMEFsZXJ0c1cDc3BjQgpjVjmYV2OXag_mUh1ldmVyeW9uZUBza3lsaWdo dGF2aWF0aW9uLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~) has not come close to those capacity levels, lagging the UK (https://link.centreforaviation.com/f/a/Sm3qkzvfIr92RRQnTuyKiw~~/AAETtQA~/RgRlOMu5P0SAaHR0cHM6Ly9jZW50cmVmb3JhdmlhdGlvbi5jb20vZGF0YS9w cm9maWxlcy9jb3VudHJpZXMvdW5pdGVkLWtpbmdkb20_dXRtX3NvdXJjZT1j YXBhJnV0bV9tZWRpdW09ZW1haWwmdXRtX2NhbXBhaWduPUNBUEElMjBBbGVy dHNXA3NwY0IKY1Y5mFdjl2oP5lIdZXZlcnlvbmVAc2t5bGlnaHRhdmlhdGlv bi5jb21YBAAAAAA~) average.

In the week commencing 10-Oct-2022 capacity at Southampton (https://link.centreforaviation.com/f/a/cYsYXu0U9TAgCgpAuB-Gqg~~/AAETtQA~/RgRlOMu5P0SIaHR0cHM6Ly9jZW50cmVmb3JhdmlhdGlvbi5jb20vZGF0YS9w cm9maWxlcy9haXJwb3J0cy9zb3V0aGFtcHRvbi1haXJwb3J0LXNvdT91dG1f c291cmNlPWNhcGEmdXRtX21lZGl1bT1lbWFpbCZ1dG1fY2FtcGFpZ249Q0FQ QSUyMEFsZXJ0c1cDc3BjQgpjVjmYV2OXag_mUh1ldmVyeW9uZUBza3lsaWdo dGF2aWF0aW9uLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~) stands at just less than 51% of what it was in the same week of 2019, and is barely above 2020 and 2021 levels.

In the UK (https://link.centreforaviation.com/f/a/Sm3qkzvfIr92RRQnTuyKiw~~/AAETtQA~/RgRlOMu5P0SAaHR0cHM6Ly9jZW50cmVmb3JhdmlhdGlvbi5jb20vZGF0YS9w cm9maWxlcy9jb3VudHJpZXMvdW5pdGVkLWtpbmdkb20_dXRtX3NvdXJjZT1j YXBhJnV0bV9tZWRpdW09ZW1haWwmdXRtX2NhbXBhaWduPUNBUEElMjBBbGVy dHNXA3NwY0IKY1Y5mFdjl2oP5lIdZXZlcnlvbmVAc2t5bGlnaHRhdmlhdGlv bi5jb21YBAAAAAA~) as a whole it is almost 89%.

1.2 million passengers annually needed to break even

The airport’s management argues that to break even, what it requires is a passenger throughput of 1.2 million per annum (which broadly tallies with ACI (https://link.centreforaviation.com/f/a/9qbM0YhMEPX_cDS0vJuVyg~~/AAETtQA~/RgRlOMu5P0SBaHR0cHM6Ly9jZW50cmVmb3JhdmlhdGlvbi5jb20vZGF0YS9w cm9maWxlcy9pbmR1c3RyeS1hc3NvY2lhdGlvbnMvYWNpP3V0bV9zb3VyY2U9 Y2FwYSZ1dG1fbWVkaXVtPWVtYWlsJnV0bV9jYW1wYWlnbj1DQVBBJTIwQWxl cnRzVwNzcGNCCmNWOZhXY5dqD-ZSHWV2ZXJ5b25lQHNreWxpZ2h0YXZpYXRpb24uY29tWAQAAAAA) and academic sector estimates on financial sustainability for airports generally). It is a level easily achieved previously when the airport reached over two mppa (see chart below), but uncertainty will remain while they are measured in the hundreds of thousands.

That figure would be facilitated by a 538ft (163m) runway extension which is scheduled to begin in 2023. It will extend the runway to almost 1900m, with a width of 37m. That should enable it to handle most small and mid-sized jet airliners.

Southampton (https://link.centreforaviation.com/f/a/cYsYXu0U9TAgCgpAuB-Gqg~~/AAETtQA~/RgRlOMu5P0SIaHR0cHM6Ly9jZW50cmVmb3JhdmlhdGlvbi5jb20vZGF0YS9w cm9maWxlcy9haXJwb3J0cy9zb3V0aGFtcHRvbi1haXJwb3J0LXNvdT91dG1f c291cmNlPWNhcGEmdXRtX21lZGl1bT1lbWFpbCZ1dG1fY2FtcGFpZ249Q0FQ QSUyMEFsZXJ0c1cDc3BjQgpjVjmYV2OXag_mUh1ldmVyeW9uZUBza3lsaWdo dGF2aWF0aW9uLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~) is one of several airports in the UK (https://link.centreforaviation.com/f/a/Sm3qkzvfIr92RRQnTuyKiw~~/AAETtQA~/RgRlOMu5P0SAaHR0cHM6Ly9jZW50cmVmb3JhdmlhdGlvbi5jb20vZGF0YS9w cm9maWxlcy9jb3VudHJpZXMvdW5pdGVkLWtpbmdkb20_dXRtX3NvdXJjZT1j YXBhJnV0bV9tZWRpdW09ZW1haWwmdXRtX2NhbXBhaWduPUNBUEElMjBBbGVy dHNXA3NwY0IKY1Y5mFdjl2oP5lIdZXZlcnlvbmVAc2t5bGlnaHRhdmlhdGlv bi5jb21YBAAAAAA~) where there has been stiff opposition to infrastructural enhancements, usually on environmental grounds. Within the past year CAPA has reported on two other examples: at Bristol (https://link.centreforaviation.com/f/a/seMUBaLRpqWEar1AX7K3kA~~/AAETtQA~/RgRlOMu5P0SEaHR0cHM6Ly9jZW50cmVmb3JhdmlhdGlvbi5jb20vZGF0YS9w cm9maWxlcy9haXJwb3J0cy9icmlzdG9sLWFpcnBvcnQtYnJzP3V0bV9zb3Vy Y2U9Y2FwYSZ1dG1fbWVkaXVtPWVtYWlsJnV0bV9jYW1wYWlnbj1DQVBBJTIw QWxlcnRzVwNzcGNCCmNWOZhXY5dqD-ZSHWV2ZXJ5b25lQHNreWxpZ2h0YXZpYXRpb24uY29tWAQAAAAA) in Misplaced 'environmental stand’ against Bristol Airport expansion (https://link.centreforaviation.com/f/a/iWOM5MEvju4ca-AAwfXq6g~~/AAETtQA~/RgRlOMu5P0SxaHR0cHM6Ly9jZW50cmVmb3JhdmlhdGlvbi5jb20vYW5hbHlz aXMvcmVwb3J0cy9taXNwbGFjZWQtZW52aXJvbm1lbnRhbC1zdGFuZC1hZ2Fp bnN0LWJyaXN0b2wtYWlycG9ydC1leHBhbnNpb24tNTc2MzY4P3V0bV9zb3Vy Y2U9Y2FwYSZ1dG1fbWVkaXVtPWVtYWlsJnV0bV9jYW1wYWlnbj1DQVBBJTIw QWxlcnRzVwNzcGNCCmNWOZhXY5dqD-ZSHWV2ZXJ5b25lQHNreWxpZ2h0YXZpYXRpb24uY29tWAQAAAAA), and at Liverpool (https://link.centreforaviation.com/f/a/NNN5H1981ZRvYIjqtoITdQ~~/AAETtQA~/RgRlOMu5P0SSaHR0cHM6Ly9jZW50cmVmb3JhdmlhdGlvbi5jb20vZGF0YS9w cm9maWxlcy9haXJwb3J0cy9saXZlcnBvb2wtam9obi1sZW5ub24tYWlycG9y dC1scGw_dXRtX3NvdXJjZT1jYXBhJnV0bV9tZWRpdW09ZW1haWwmdXRtX2Nh bXBhaWduPUNBUEElMjBBbGVydHNXA3NwY0IKY1Y5mFdjl2oP5lIdZXZlcnlv bmVAc2t5bGlnaHRhdmlhdGlvbi5jb21YBAAAAAA~) in Liverpool Airport’s expansion master plan to be reviewed on environmental grounds (https://link.centreforaviation.com/f/a/gVRPOtTZxefnKft3LzKhXA~~/AAETtQA~/RgRlOMu5P0TCaHR0cHM6Ly9jZW50cmVmb3JhdmlhdGlvbi5jb20vYW5hbHlz aXMvcmVwb3J0cy9saXZlcnBvb2wtYWlycG9ydHMtZXhwYW5zaW9uLW1hc3Rl ci1wbGFuLXRvLWJlLXJldmlld2VkLW9uLWVudmlyb25tZW50YWwtZ3JvdW5k cy01OTY2MDc_dXRtX3NvdXJjZT1jYXBhJnV0bV9tZWRpdW09ZW1haWwmdXRt X2NhbXBhaWduPUNBUEElMjBBbGVydHNXA3NwY0IKY1Y5mFdjl2oP5lIdZXZl cnlvbmVAc2t5bGlnaHRhdmlhdGlvbi5jb21YBAAAAAA~).

In Southampton (https://link.centreforaviation.com/f/a/cYsYXu0U9TAgCgpAuB-Gqg~~/AAETtQA~/RgRlOMu5P0SIaHR0cHM6Ly9jZW50cmVmb3JhdmlhdGlvbi5jb20vZGF0YS9w cm9maWxlcy9haXJwb3J0cy9zb3V0aGFtcHRvbi1haXJwb3J0LXNvdT91dG1f c291cmNlPWNhcGEmdXRtX21lZGl1bT1lbWFpbCZ1dG1fY2FtcGFpZ249Q0FQ QSUyMEFsZXJ0c1cDc3BjQgpjVjmYV2OXag_mUh1ldmVyeW9uZUBza3lsaWdo dGF2aWF0aW9uLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~)’s case it was successful at a judicial review. The final legal challenge to the runway extension was defeated at the Court of Appeal earlier in 2022.

'No airport has a right to exist if it can’t make money'

Mr Szalay is reported locally to have said, “Without the extension, there’s no nice way of putting it. We were screwed.”

He has also been reported to comment, "No airport has a right to exist if it can't make money"; a refreshingly honest opinion.

Southampton (https://link.centreforaviation.com/f/a/cYsYXu0U9TAgCgpAuB-Gqg~~/AAETtQA~/RgRlOMu5P0SIaHR0cHM6Ly9jZW50cmVmb3JhdmlhdGlvbi5jb20vZGF0YS9w cm9maWxlcy9haXJwb3J0cy9zb3V0aGFtcHRvbi1haXJwb3J0LXNvdT91dG1f c291cmNlPWNhcGEmdXRtX21lZGl1bT1lbWFpbCZ1dG1fY2FtcGFpZ249Q0FQ QSUyMEFsZXJ0c1cDc3BjQgpjVjmYV2OXag_mUh1ldmVyeW9uZUBza3lsaWdo dGF2aWF0aW9uLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~)'s target is three million passengers

On the positive side, the airport’s management believes the throughput can grow to three million passengers a year, which seems realistic, and 2,000 staff after the extension is built.

Before the COVID-19 pandemic, in 2019, it reached 1.8 million passengers, but that was a 10.5% shortfall on the previous year.

Traffic growth over the past decade has been patchy and uneven, reaching +14% in 2016, but with growth otherwise in single digits and also four years of falling traffic between 2010 and 2019 (no figures are available for 2014 and 2015).

The average annual growth figure in that period without those two years was just +1.3%.

The airport took a hit from the failure of Flybe (https://link.centreforaviation.com/f/a/UPngZKQxBEV9mfuz3zBuOA~~/AAETtQA~/RgRlOMu5P0R5aHR0cHM6Ly9jZW50cmVmb3JhdmlhdGlvbi5jb20vZGF0YS9w cm9maWxlcy9haXJsaW5lcy9mbHliZS1iZT91dG1fc291cmNlPWNhcGEmdXRt X21lZGl1bT1lbWFpbCZ1dG1fY2FtcGFpZ249Q0FQQSUyMEFsZXJ0c1cDc3Bj QgpjVjmYV2OXag_mUh1ldmVyeW9uZUBza3lsaWdodGF2aWF0aW9uLmNvbVgE AAAAAA~~) just before the pandemic, resulting in an 84% passenger traffic loss in 2020, and a further -11.2% in 2021. But growth in the first seven months of 2022 was 365%.

[Skipness One Foxtrot]

Great reply, thanks for the detail. Interesting that the business model which once upon a time made them money isn't ever going to do so again. It looks like they need to step change up the way, or leave the market. No profitable future in high frequency, non loco regional connectivity it seems. For higher volume and cost sensitive travel, the Gatwick option is uncomfortably too close though.

[SKOJB]

Whispers of EXS interested in the airport, we shall see but that could be a goer with no footprint in the south at present!

[SWBKCB]

No profitable future in high frequency, non loco regional connectivity it seems.

Where are you taking that from - the "no extension we're screwed" bit? If so, that was presumably that was before it was agreed so what else is he going to say?

What SOU is struggling with now if having all its eggs in the Flybe basket. That might have been mentioned here before.

[RW20]

Flightfone
Very good indepth analysis,
It's clear that SOU hasn't performed as well as most regional airports,indeed also it can't go on for long with 51% capacity.Pre covid and before the demise of flybe the airport was doing very well but all has changed now. The lack of development in recent years, i.e. Stands,taxiways and most important the maximising the runway extension capabilities had now come back to bite hard. Down the road at Bournemouth it's a different matter and with its runway length it secures a continued bright future,be it limited to many European links. Regional airports like Exeter,Norwich,Southend, for example most be increasingly in danger of going in the direction of Doncaster,given the tough next few years others including I'm afraid Southampton must also be iadded to the list
​The land at Southampton must be worth a fortune for housing development!
With all this in mind there is no definite news on Southampton runway work starting, the airport needs to make money fast, it can only do this by getting things done know,not later

​​

[Buster the Bear]

Whispers of EXS interested in the airport, we shall see but that could be a goer with no footprint in the south at present!

That would be a first, as their model requires H24 operation.

[SKOJB]

That would be a first, as their model requires H24 operation.

All successful businesses have flexible business models!

[AirLCY]

Whispers of EXS interested in the airport, we shall see but that could be a goer with no footprint in the south at present!

One of the directors used to work there, so definitely a good connection. A320 / A321 neo should have a decent range, 320 to the canaries no problem.

[TCAS FAN]

That would be a first, as their model requires H24 operation.

Never gong to happen due to Bl**dy Awful Airports Plc locking them in to a Section 106 Agreement restricting operating hours to ease the passage of planning consent for airport re-development.

[Wycombe]

Never gong to happen due to Bl**dy Awful Airports Plc locking them in to a Section 106 Agreement restricting operating hours to ease the passage of planning consent for airport re-development.
Maybe "W"'s into/out of SOU during the day from other bases so that long op hours not needed?

[stewyb]

Never gong to happen due to Bl**dy Awful Airports Plc locking them in to a Section 106 Agreement restricting operating hours to ease the passage of planning consent for airport re-development.

You are well respected on this thread so what alternatives do you suggest?

[RW20]

One of the directors used to work there, so definitely a good connection. A320 / A321 neo should have a decent range, 320 to the canaries no problem.
Could a 320 fully loaded make the Canaries from Southampton with the extension? I think it's unlikely!

[cavokblues]

Never gong to happen due to Bl**dy Awful Airports Plc locking them in to a Section 106 Agreement restricting operating hours to ease the passage of planning consent for airport re-development.

You can change a s106 agreement. Might be on the cards?

[TCAS FAN]

You are well respected on this thread so what alternatives do you suggest?

Thank you for your kind comment. As indicated by cavokblues the current Section 106 can be amended but could be a very costly exercise with no guarantee of success for AGS.

From what I recollect from the original, which I have no evidence to show that it has been amended, despite making several requests to EBC for a copy, it is overdue for a review, but in the current financial climate no doubt the question is "who pays?".

There is no longer a need for the Section 106 to ban Concorde or B747s from using the airport. Albeit we did get both within a few hundred feet of the runway on a number of occasions!

The main focus of the original Section 106 was noise, which with the advent of the A320 Neos and others is a fraction of what we had when it was first written.

Due to the night movement restrictions specified in the 106 the ATC manning was/is tailored to it, with little or no flexibility (due to duty time limitations) to cover delayed arrivals. These I believe are in fact permitted under the current agreement, the requirement being that they are not originally scheduled after 2300HR. It was/is inevitably the non-availability of ATC staff that has caused diversions of late arrivals..

[SWBKCB]

Didn't operating hours come up again in the recent runway extension application process? Applying for extended hours now just seems like a way of re-opening the recent arguments, and will be interpreted as acting in bad faith.

[Flitefone]

Didn't operating hours come up again in the recent runway extension application process? Applying for extended hours now just seems like a way of re-opening the recent arguments, and will be interpreted as acting in bad faith.

The Section 106 Agreement for SOU was recently concluded as a precondition for planning permission for the runway extension. !06 Agreements generally seem to last for about ten years, so in this case to 2032 - they tend to need updating when something material happens (such as the runway extension at SOU) and always place legal restrictions on the airport operator. That might be a passenger cap - normally related to surface access congestion, or a night limit/movement cap (usually noise related). Or in the case of Gatwick, the establishment of (I think) a 20 year restriction - which expired in 2019 - on the use of the northern runway as anything other than a taxiway/standby runway. My expectation therefore is that the newly signed 106 agreement at SOU will remain unaltered until 2032, unless something big changes (such as the introduction of regular drone services in large numbers), which is probably 8-10 years away.

FF

[stewyb]

The S106 that will sit alongside the runway extension continues with current operating hours (0600-2300) although I believe there is an adjustment for an increase in 1st wave of departures between 0600-0700, assuming to entice a LCC. Doesn’t however change closing times at the back end of the day!

[stewyb]

Could a 320 fully loaded make the Canaries from Southampton with the extension? I think it's unlikely!

EZY at SEN operated a 320 during winter with a 10-15 seat penalty

[Dropoffcharge]

Sorry, but how many times does it have to be said......a LCC will not open a base at SOU, due to, the lack of CAT3 ILS, the above mentioned 106 agreement relating to operating hours and not to mention, even with alterations, the size of the terminal facilities. A possibility of W patterns yes, but a very slim chance at that.

[RW20]

Sorry, but how many times does it have to be said......a LCC will not open a base at SOU, due to, the lack of CAT3 ILS, the above mentioned 106 agreement relating to operating hours and not to mention, even with alterations, the size of the terminal facilities. A possibility of W patterns yes, but a very slim chance at that.
Well what is the point of the runway extension?,indeed if there is a slim chance of W patterns ,the question is what does the future of the airport hold?

[SWBKCB]

In FF's post 1026 he states

The Airport's financial reports are in the public domain. - using companies house filings. It made more than £11m profit in 2018 on a revenue of £30m or so - a good business - but since then has lost heavily:

So the 2018 profit was based on short haul regional flying and a smattering of charters.

The losses since then are down to Flybe and Covid. SOU has recovered slower than other airports due to the loss of BE, but the evidence seems to be there that those gaps are being filled by LM, EIR etc. The runway extension will benefit those flights and might also see an increase in charters and W flights like EZY's ski flights. There'll also be a contribution from new business park.

I don't see a LCC base as the be all and end all

[Dropoffcharge]

Well what is the point of the runway extension?,indeed if there is a slim chance of W patterns ,the question is what does the future of the airport hold?
The original planning application stated the extension was to allow current type aircraft to fly further and without restrictions, to me nothing has changed from that. The whole talk of a LCC base has and always will be a fantasy, that's from both the airport itself and many people on this forum. The cold hard reality of it all is it just can't be done from SOU successfully, even with the extension.

The future is as it has been up until now, continued UK connectivity with a few bucket and spade routes thrown in, agreed the extension will allow for more of both of the above, but at what levels we'll have to wait and see.

[Dropoffcharge]

The runway extension will benefit those flights and might also see an increase in charters and W flights like EZY's ski flights. There'll also be a contribution from new business park.

I don't see a LCC base as the be all and end all

Exactly this, they need to continue doing what SOU has always been good at doing, with the added benefit of a slightly longer runway, to reduce the summer weight penalty issues previously encountered.

[cavokblues]

If / when the extension is completed I would be fairly surprised if EZY didn't dip their toe in the pond with a FAO and / or AGP or PMI based frame visting 2-3 times a week for at least a summer.

[inOban]

Given the vibrant economy of the area I would have expected EZY flights from some of their city bases such as Berlin or Milan.

[Buster the Bear]

70 min from the railway station opposite the terminal into central London. Southampton has a huge huge catchment area just based upon the stops on that line.

[SKOJB]

If TUI and RYR can base a single aircraft each at BOH and perform successfully with very limited public transport infrastructure, then I see no reason why they can’t also replicate the same at SOU (post extension) with a few select routes utilising the excellent road and rail links

[Skipness One Foxtrot]

What would an easyJet and a Ryanair departure do to the terminal? At 186 + 189 that's 375 seats, or 5 x Q400s in olde world flybe terms. Now if you did have 5 Q400s and/or ATRs boarding at peak morning rush and and only the two jets above in addition, that's equivalent to TEN Q400s at once. So your BAU props and the beginnings of wished for loco business, what does that do to your CX? (customer experience)

Basically what they're chasing needs a new terminal for jets and not just a longer runway. IF that's what they need.

[adfly]

What would an easyJet and a Ryanair departure do to the terminal? At 186 + 189 that's 375 seats, or 5 x Q400s in olde world flybe terms. Now if you did have 5 Q400s and/or ATRs boarding at peak morning rush and and only the two jets above in addition, that's equivalent to TEN Q400s at once. So your BAU props and the beginnings of wished for loco business, what does that do to your CX? (customer experience)

Basically what they're chasing needs a new terminal for jets and not just a longer runway. IF that's what they need.
There was a terminal extension planned a few years ago as well, quite ambitious by the looks of it - adding a full second floor to the departure lounge area.
https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1392x886/capture_c523f08b95726d05e064e77d2b7a8e131bf55c73.jpg
Worth noting they did manage ok when Flybe had 3x E195's based there, generally arriving and departing at quite similar times - 3x 118 seats is similar to the 2x 738/320 scenario. Of course beyond two of these that question comes back around...

[SKOJB]

There was a terminal extension planned a few years ago as well, quite ambitious by the looks of it - adding a full second floor to the departure lounge area.
https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1392x886/capture_c523f08b95726d05e064e77d2b7a8e131bf55c73.jpg
Worth noting they did manage ok when Flybe had 3x E195's based there, generally arriving and departing at quite similar times - 3x 118 seats is similar to the 2x 738/320 scenario. Of course beyond two of these that question comes back around...

Let’s not forget the huge reduction now seen in peak morning pax traffic compared to pre Covid and BE. Flew from the airport recently and at 0730 it must have been 70% or more quieter. There is definitely a lot of room for manoeuvre in the departures area before it hits capacity once again and a couple of A320 departures would only bring it back up to somewhere near 2019 levels!

[TCAS FAN]

What would an easyJet and a Ryanair departure do to the terminal? At 186 + 189 that's 375 seats, or 5 x Q400s in olde world flybe terms. Now if you did have 5 Q400s and/or ATRs boarding at peak morning rush and and only the two jets above in addition, that's equivalent to TEN Q400s at once. So your BAU props and the beginnings of wished for loco business, what does that do to your CX? (customer experience)

Basically what they're chasing needs a new terminal for jets and not just a longer runway. IF that's what they need.

From what I recollect in Flybe times did we not have 8 (sometimes more) morning departures (GLA/EDI/MAN/AMS/CDG/DUB/LBA/NCL) in the first hour?

[SKOJB]

From what I recollect in Flybe times did we not have 8 (sometimes more) morning departures (GLA/EDI/MAN/AMS/CDG/DUB/LBA/NCL) in the first hour?

Quick scan suggests most mornings have 6 departures before 1055, hardly stretched. This will of course rise on weekends in summer with BACF but the days of multiple BE launches before 0800 are long gone!

[Flitefone]

No surprises here.
FF

In part one of this report CAPA highlighted that Southampton Airport (https://link.centreforaviation.com/f/a/QZmaYtqWdESDu-LTPhHMyQ~~/AAETtQA~/RgRlO263P0SIaHR0cHM6Ly9jZW50cmVmb3JhdmlhdGlvbi5jb20vZGF0YS9w cm9maWxlcy9haXJwb3J0cy9zb3V0aGFtcHRvbi1haXJwb3J0LXNvdT91dG1f c291cmNlPWNhcGEmdXRtX21lZGl1bT1lbWFpbCZ1dG1fY2FtcGFpZ249Q0FQ QSUyMEFsZXJ0c1cDc3BjQgpjUDc7WmMsnfg4Uh1ldmVyeW9uZUBza3lsaWdo dGF2aWF0aW9uLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~)’s Operations Director Steve Szalay had said recently that the airport was likely to record a GBP4.5 million loss in 2022 (slightly down from an earlier estimate), when most other British airports are indicating that they anticipate an operating profit, if only a small one.

A loss during which air transport has come close to the same seat capacity levels and passenger business as 2019 in the UK (https://link.centreforaviation.com/f/a/1qsJL61KTTagq3pTxCL2LA~~/AAETtQA~/RgRlO263P0SAaHR0cHM6Ly9jZW50cmVmb3JhdmlhdGlvbi5jb20vZGF0YS9w cm9maWxlcy9jb3VudHJpZXMvdW5pdGVkLWtpbmdkb20_dXRtX3NvdXJjZT1j YXBhJnV0bV9tZWRpdW09ZW1haWwmdXRtX2NhbXBhaWduPUNBUEElMjBBbGVy dHNXA3NwY0IKY1A3O1pjLJ34OFIdZXZlcnlvbmVAc2t5bGlnaHRhdmlhdGlv bi5jb21YBAAAAAA~) is worrying.

And unfortunately, Southampton (https://link.centreforaviation.com/f/a/QZmaYtqWdESDu-LTPhHMyQ~~/AAETtQA~/RgRlO263P0SIaHR0cHM6Ly9jZW50cmVmb3JhdmlhdGlvbi5jb20vZGF0YS9w cm9maWxlcy9haXJwb3J0cy9zb3V0aGFtcHRvbi1haXJwb3J0LXNvdT91dG1f c291cmNlPWNhcGEmdXRtX21lZGl1bT1lbWFpbCZ1dG1fY2FtcGFpZ249Q0FQ QSUyMEFsZXJ0c1cDc3BjQgpjUDc7WmMsnfg4Uh1ldmVyeW9uZUBza3lsaWdo dGF2aWF0aW9uLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~) has not come close to those capacity levels, lagging the UK (https://link.centreforaviation.com/f/a/1qsJL61KTTagq3pTxCL2LA~~/AAETtQA~/RgRlO263P0SAaHR0cHM6Ly9jZW50cmVmb3JhdmlhdGlvbi5jb20vZGF0YS9w cm9maWxlcy9jb3VudHJpZXMvdW5pdGVkLWtpbmdkb20_dXRtX3NvdXJjZT1j YXBhJnV0bV9tZWRpdW09ZW1haWwmdXRtX2NhbXBhaWduPUNBUEElMjBBbGVy dHNXA3NwY0IKY1A3O1pjLJ34OFIdZXZlcnlvbmVAc2t5bGlnaHRhdmlhdGlv bi5jb21YBAAAAAA~) average.

2019 levels 'unachievable' without a runway extension

Mr Szalay is convinced that it would be impossible to reach 2019 passenger numbers again without the runway extension, because once Flybe (https://link.centreforaviation.com/f/a/WbGmQdiZ7I2D97qfT-XqiA~~/AAETtQA~/RgRlO263P0R5aHR0cHM6Ly9jZW50cmVmb3JhdmlhdGlvbi5jb20vZGF0YS9w cm9maWxlcy9haXJsaW5lcy9mbHliZS1iZT91dG1fc291cmNlPWNhcGEmdXRt X21lZGl1bT1lbWFpbCZ1dG1fY2FtcGFpZ249Q0FQQSUyMEFsZXJ0c1cDc3Bj QgpjUDc7WmMsnfg4Uh1ldmVyeW9uZUBza3lsaWdodGF2aWF0aW9uLmNvbVgE AAAAAA~~) was lost, “there was no other airline with a big enough fleet that can operate off our runway.”

In other words, there are now insufficient airlines in the UK (https://link.centreforaviation.com/f/a/1qsJL61KTTagq3pTxCL2LA~~/AAETtQA~/RgRlO263P0SAaHR0cHM6Ly9jZW50cmVmb3JhdmlhdGlvbi5jb20vZGF0YS9w cm9maWxlcy9jb3VudHJpZXMvdW5pdGVkLWtpbmdkb20_dXRtX3NvdXJjZT1j YXBhJnV0bV9tZWRpdW09ZW1haWwmdXRtX2NhbXBhaWduPUNBUEElMjBBbGVy dHNXA3NwY0IKY1A3O1pjLJ34OFIdZXZlcnlvbmVAc2t5bGlnaHRhdmlhdGlv bi5jb21YBAAAAAA~) with small enough aircraft to keep regional airports like Southampton (https://link.centreforaviation.com/f/a/QZmaYtqWdESDu-LTPhHMyQ~~/AAETtQA~/RgRlO263P0SIaHR0cHM6Ly9jZW50cmVmb3JhdmlhdGlvbi5jb20vZGF0YS9w cm9maWxlcy9haXJwb3J0cy9zb3V0aGFtcHRvbi1haXJwb3J0LXNvdT91dG1f c291cmNlPWNhcGEmdXRtX21lZGl1bT1lbWFpbCZ1dG1fY2FtcGFpZ249Q0FQ QSUyMEFsZXJ0c1cDc3BjQgpjUDc7WmMsnfg4Uh1ldmVyeW9uZUBza3lsaWdo dGF2aWF0aW9uLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~) going. They are increasingly dependent on foreign airlines, and it was that dependence which did for Doncaster-Sheffield (https://link.centreforaviation.com/f/a/y8XwIRNzMr23BGIXGbhmDA~~/AAETtQA~/RgRlO263P0SQaHR0cHM6Ly9jZW50cmVmb3JhdmlhdGlvbi5jb20vZGF0YS9w cm9maWxlcy9haXJwb3J0cy9kb25jYXN0ZXItc2hlZmZpZWxkLWFpcnBvcnQt ZHNhP3V0bV9zb3VyY2U9Y2FwYSZ1dG1fbWVkaXVtPWVtYWlsJnV0bV9jYW1w YWlnbj1DQVBBJTIwQWxlcnRzVwNzcGNCCmNQNztaYyyd-DhSHWV2ZXJ5b25lQHNreWxpZ2h0YXZpYXRpb24uY29tWAQAAAAA), then the effective pull-out by Wizz Air (https://link.centreforaviation.com/f/a/Aa4_PoSI4cjDkJYCk9WZJw~~/AAETtQA~/RgRlO263P0R8aHR0cHM6Ly9jZW50cmVmb3JhdmlhdGlvbi5jb20vZGF0YS9w cm9maWxlcy9haXJsaW5lcy93aXp6LWFpci13Nj91dG1fc291cmNlPWNhcGEm dXRtX21lZGl1bT1lbWFpbCZ1dG1fY2FtcGFpZ249Q0FQQSUyMEFsZXJ0c1cD c3BjQgpjUDc7WmMsnfg4Uh1ldmVyeW9uZUBza3lsaWdodGF2aWF0aW9uLmNv bVgEAAAAAA~~) being the fatal blow.

Indeed, many airports will also be concerned by the news that Loganair (https://link.centreforaviation.com/f/a/m14fGN-iMPfqSop-4M2EGQ~~/AAETtQA~/RgRlO263P0R8aHR0cHM6Ly9jZW50cmVmb3JhdmlhdGlvbi5jb20vZGF0YS9w cm9maWxlcy9haXJsaW5lcy9sb2dhbmFpci1sbT91dG1fc291cmNlPWNhcGEm dXRtX21lZGl1bT1lbWFpbCZ1dG1fY2FtcGFpZ249Q0FQQSUyMEFsZXJ0c1cD c3BjQgpjUDc7WmMsnfg4Uh1ldmVyeW9uZUBza3lsaWdodGF2aWF0aW9uLmNv bVgEAAAAAA~~), now the UK (https://link.centreforaviation.com/f/a/1qsJL61KTTagq3pTxCL2LA~~/AAETtQA~/RgRlO263P0SAaHR0cHM6Ly9jZW50cmVmb3JhdmlhdGlvbi5jb20vZGF0YS9w cm9maWxlcy9jb3VudHJpZXMvdW5pdGVkLWtpbmdkb20_dXRtX3NvdXJjZT1j YXBhJnV0bV9tZWRpdW09ZW1haWwmdXRtX2NhbXBhaWduPUNBUEElMjBBbGVy dHNXA3NwY0IKY1A3O1pjLJ34OFIdZXZlcnlvbmVAc2t5bGlnaHRhdmlhdGlv bi5jb21YBAAAAAA~)’s largest regional airline, is up for sale.

Presently Loganair (https://link.centreforaviation.com/f/a/m14fGN-iMPfqSop-4M2EGQ~~/AAETtQA~/RgRlO263P0R8aHR0cHM6Ly9jZW50cmVmb3JhdmlhdGlvbi5jb20vZGF0YS9w cm9maWxlcy9haXJsaW5lcy9sb2dhbmFpci1sbT91dG1fc291cmNlPWNhcGEm dXRtX21lZGl1bT1lbWFpbCZ1dG1fY2FtcGFpZ249Q0FQQSUyMEFsZXJ0c1cD c3BjQgpjUDc7WmMsnfg4Uh1ldmVyeW9uZUBza3lsaWdodGF2aWF0aW9uLmNv bVgEAAAAAA~~) is the largest operator at Southampton (https://link.centreforaviation.com/f/a/QZmaYtqWdESDu-LTPhHMyQ~~/AAETtQA~/RgRlO263P0SIaHR0cHM6Ly9jZW50cmVmb3JhdmlhdGlvbi5jb20vZGF0YS9w cm9maWxlcy9haXJwb3J0cy9zb3V0aGFtcHRvbi1haXJwb3J0LXNvdT91dG1f c291cmNlPWNhcGEmdXRtX21lZGl1bT1lbWFpbCZ1dG1fY2FtcGFpZ249Q0FQ QSUyMEFsZXJ0c1cDc3BjQgpjUDc7WmMsnfg4Uh1ldmVyeW9uZUBza3lsaWdo dGF2aWF0aW9uLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~), both by seat capacity (29.4%) and movements (36.7%).


Regional/commuter airlines dominate capacity

The emphasis on small aircraft can be gauged from the fact that more than 75% of seat capacity at Southampton (https://link.centreforaviation.com/f/a/QZmaYtqWdESDu-LTPhHMyQ~~/AAETtQA~/RgRlO263P0SIaHR0cHM6Ly9jZW50cmVmb3JhdmlhdGlvbi5jb20vZGF0YS9w cm9maWxlcy9haXJwb3J0cy9zb3V0aGFtcHRvbi1haXJwb3J0LXNvdT91dG1f c291cmNlPWNhcGEmdXRtX21lZGl1bT1lbWFpbCZ1dG1fY2FtcGFpZ249Q0FQ QSUyMEFsZXJ0c1cDc3BjQgpjUDc7WmMsnfg4Uh1ldmVyeW9uZUBza3lsaWdo dGF2aWF0aW9uLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~) is on regional/commuter airlines, with full service carriers accounting for 19.6% and low cost airlines – which are still the driving force in the UK (https://link.centreforaviation.com/f/a/1qsJL61KTTagq3pTxCL2LA~~/AAETtQA~/RgRlO263P0SAaHR0cHM6Ly9jZW50cmVmb3JhdmlhdGlvbi5jb20vZGF0YS9w cm9maWxlcy9jb3VudHJpZXMvdW5pdGVkLWtpbmdkb20_dXRtX3NvdXJjZT1j YXBhJnV0bV9tZWRpdW09ZW1haWwmdXRtX2NhbXBhaWduPUNBUEElMjBBbGVy dHNXA3NwY0IKY1A3O1pjLJ34OFIdZXZlcnlvbmVAc2t5bGlnaHRhdmlhdGlv bi5jb21YBAAAAAA~) as a whole – having a minuscule 5.2%.

It is nearby Bournemouth Airport (https://link.centreforaviation.com/f/a/jWUDoVZZWZIvKcuUW1m3BQ~~/AAETtQA~/RgRlO263P0SIaHR0cHM6Ly9jZW50cmVmb3JhdmlhdGlvbi5jb20vZGF0YS9w cm9maWxlcy9haXJwb3J0cy9ib3VybmVtb3V0aC1haXJwb3J0LWJvaD91dG1f c291cmNlPWNhcGEmdXRtX21lZGl1bT1lbWFpbCZ1dG1fY2FtcGFpZ249Q0FQ QSUyMEFsZXJ0c1cDc3BjQgpjUDc7WmMsnfg4Uh1ldmVyeW9uZUBza3lsaWdo dGF2aWF0aW9uLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~) (which has reached 2019 capacity levels since Jun-2022) that has cornered the low cost market in the area, with 74% of its capacity in that domain. Bournemouth (https://link.centreforaviation.com/f/a/jWUDoVZZWZIvKcuUW1m3BQ~~/AAETtQA~/RgRlO263P0SIaHR0cHM6Ly9jZW50cmVmb3JhdmlhdGlvbi5jb20vZGF0YS9w cm9maWxlcy9haXJwb3J0cy9ib3VybmVtb3V0aC1haXJwb3J0LWJvaD91dG1f c291cmNlPWNhcGEmdXRtX21lZGl1bT1lbWFpbCZ1dG1fY2FtcGFpZ249Q0FQ QSUyMEFsZXJ0c1cDc3BjQgpjUDc7WmMsnfg4Uh1ldmVyeW9uZUBza3lsaWdo dGF2aWF0aW9uLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~)’s runway is 2270m long and can handle Ryanair (https://link.centreforaviation.com/f/a/X1lAokZh-ybnt8NMKzRzAw~~/AAETtQA~/RgRlO263P0R7aHR0cHM6Ly9jZW50cmVmb3JhdmlhdGlvbi5jb20vZGF0YS9w cm9maWxlcy9haXJsaW5lcy9yeWFuYWlyLWZyP3V0bV9zb3VyY2U9Y2FwYSZ1 dG1fbWVkaXVtPWVtYWlsJnV0bV9jYW1wYWlnbj1DQVBBJTIwQWxlcnRzVwNz cGNCCmNQNztaYyyd-DhSHWV2ZXJ5b25lQHNreWxpZ2h0YXZpYXRpb24uY29tWAQAAAAA)’s Boeing (https://link.centreforaviation.com/f/a/c_BhqvAmS8ao5Mrha4T7zw~~/AAETtQA~/RgRlO263P0R4aHR0cHM6Ly9jZW50cmVmb3JhdmlhdGlvbi5jb20vZGF0YS9w cm9maWxlcy9zdXBwbGllcnMvYm9laW5nP3V0bV9zb3VyY2U9Y2FwYSZ1dG1f bWVkaXVtPWVtYWlsJnV0bV9jYW1wYWlnbj1DQVBBJTIwQWxlcnRzVwNzcGNC CmNQNztaYyyd-DhSHWV2ZXJ5b25lQHNreWxpZ2h0YXZpYXRpb24uY29tWAQAAAAA) 737 (https://link.centreforaviation.com/f/a/5LyHAouTU16rYiVdOlVEsA~~/AAETtQA~/RgRlO263P0R0aHR0cHM6Ly9jZW50cmVmb3JhdmlhdGlvbi5jb20vZGF0YS9w cm9maWxlcy9haXJjcmFmdC83Mzc_dXRtX3NvdXJjZT1jYXBhJnV0bV9tZWRp dW09ZW1haWwmdXRtX2NhbXBhaWduPUNBUEElMjBBbGVydHNXA3NwY0IKY1A3 O1pjLJ34OFIdZXZlcnlvbmVAc2t5bGlnaHRhdmlhdGlvbi5jb21YBAAAAAA~ )-800s and MAX-8s.

Mr Szalay said, "Once we've got the runway extension, then we can be open to a whole host of airlines who, for example, operate with Airbus (https://link.centreforaviation.com/f/a/mV72Iuc8Ev2l9neM6cnXIg~~/AAETtQA~/RgRlO263P0R4aHR0cHM6Ly9jZW50cmVmb3JhdmlhdGlvbi5jb20vZGF0YS9w cm9maWxlcy9zdXBwbGllcnMvYWlyYnVzP3V0bV9zb3VyY2U9Y2FwYSZ1dG1f bWVkaXVtPWVtYWlsJnV0bV9jYW1wYWlnbj1DQVBBJTIwQWxlcnRzVwNzcGNC CmNQNztaYyyd-DhSHWV2ZXJ5b25lQHNreWxpZ2h0YXZpYXRpb24uY29tWAQAAAAA) A320s and then we're viable again. We can connect to anywhere in Europe (https://link.centreforaviation.com/f/a/CS-2EJ3MHW-wdB-lnUp9gA~~/AAETtQA~/RgRlO263P0R2aHR0cHM6Ly9jZW50cmVmb3JhdmlhdGlvbi5jb20vZGF0YS9w cm9maWxlcy9yZWdpb25zL2V1cm9wZT91dG1fc291cmNlPWNhcGEmdXRtX21l ZGl1bT1lbWFpbCZ1dG1fY2FtcGFpZ249Q0FQQSUyMEFsZXJ0c1cDc3BjQgpj UDc7WmMsnfg4Uh1ldmVyeW9uZUBza3lsaWdodGF2aWF0aW9uLmNvbVgEAAAA AA~~)."

A depleted route network; (new) Flybe (https://link.centreforaviation.com/f/a/WbGmQdiZ7I2D97qfT-XqiA~~/AAETtQA~/RgRlO263P0R5aHR0cHM6Ly9jZW50cmVmb3JhdmlhdGlvbi5jb20vZGF0YS9w cm9maWxlcy9haXJsaW5lcy9mbHliZS1iZT91dG1fc291cmNlPWNhcGEmdXRt X21lZGl1bT1lbWFpbCZ1dG1fY2FtcGFpZ249Q0FQQSUyMEFsZXJ0c1cDc3Bj QgpjUDc7WmMsnfg4Uh1ldmVyeW9uZUBza3lsaWdodGF2aWF0aW9uLmNvbVgE AAAAAA~~)’s return is gradual; British Airways (https://link.centreforaviation.com/f/a/8m3oBPFXYlUiO3VjK_Z04A~~/AAETtQA~/RgRlO263P0SDaHR0cHM6Ly9jZW50cmVmb3JhdmlhdGlvbi5jb20vZGF0YS9w cm9maWxlcy9haXJsaW5lcy9icml0aXNoLWFpcndheXMtYmE_dXRtX3NvdXJj ZT1jYXBhJnV0bV9tZWRpdW09ZW1haWwmdXRtX2NhbXBhaWduPUNBUEElMjBB bGVydHNXA3NwY0IKY1A3O1pjLJ34OFIdZXZlcnlvbmVAc2t5bGlnaHRhdmlh dGlvbi5jb21YBAAAAAA~) has significant seasonal presence

But supply does not necessarily mean demand, which often has to be created, or resurrected.

The airport’s current route map is a depleted version of what it was before Flybe (https://link.centreforaviation.com/f/a/WbGmQdiZ7I2D97qfT-XqiA~~/AAETtQA~/RgRlO263P0R5aHR0cHM6Ly9jZW50cmVmb3JhdmlhdGlvbi5jb20vZGF0YS9w cm9maWxlcy9haXJsaW5lcy9mbHliZS1iZT91dG1fc291cmNlPWNhcGEmdXRt X21lZGl1bT1lbWFpbCZ1dG1fY2FtcGFpZ249Q0FQQSUyMEFsZXJ0c1cDc3Bj QgpjUDc7WmMsnfg4Uh1ldmVyeW9uZUBza3lsaWdodGF2aWF0aW9uLmNvbVgE AAAAAA~~)’s downfall: much of the capacity to the Channel Islands (https://link.centreforaviation.com/f/a/ouecNhJFdJ6hx1tojuaamw~~/AAETtQA~/RgRlO263P0SAaHR0cHM6Ly9jZW50cmVmb3JhdmlhdGlvbi5jb20vZGF0YS9w cm9maWxlcy9haXJsaW5lcy9pc2xhbmRzLWFpcmxpbmU_dXRtX3NvdXJjZT1j YXBhJnV0bV9tZWRpdW09ZW1haWwmdXRtX2NhbXBhaWduPUNBUEElMjBBbGVy dHNXA3NwY0IKY1A3O1pjLJ34OFIdZXZlcnlvbmVAc2t5bGlnaHRhdmlhdGlv bi5jb21YBAAAAAA~) (Jersey (https://link.centreforaviation.com/f/a/1wUeZvOWPDHc6g08q4sRMg~~/AAETtQA~/RgRlO263P0SDaHR0cHM6Ly9jZW50cmVmb3JhdmlhdGlvbi5jb20vZGF0YS9w cm9maWxlcy9haXJwb3J0cy9qZXJzZXktYWlycG9ydC1qZXI_dXRtX3NvdXJj ZT1jYXBhJnV0bV9tZWRpdW09ZW1haWwmdXRtX2NhbXBhaWduPUNBUEElMjBB bGVydHNXA3NwY0IKY1A3O1pjLJ34OFIdZXZlcnlvbmVAc2t5bGlnaHRhdmlh dGlvbi5jb21YBAAAAAA~) and Guernsey (https://link.centreforaviation.com/f/a/TRcKz2yKo2-OJhn2BxPtwg~~/AAETtQA~/RgRlO263P0SFaHR0cHM6Ly9jZW50cmVmb3JhdmlhdGlvbi5jb20vZGF0YS9w cm9maWxlcy9haXJwb3J0cy9ndWVybnNleS1haXJwb3J0LWdjaT91dG1fc291 cmNlPWNhcGEmdXRtX21lZGl1bT1lbWFpbCZ1dG1fY2FtcGFpZ249Q0FQQSUy MEFsZXJ0c1cDc3BjQgpjUDc7WmMsnfg4Uh1ldmVyeW9uZUBza3lsaWdodGF2 aWF0aW9uLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~)); a gaggle of routes to northern Britain where rail travel is impractical; three routes to hub airports (Manchester (https://link.centreforaviation.com/f/a/qsZet7UYk5XlxO-795CO-Q~~/AAETtQA~/RgRlO263P0SHaHR0cHM6Ly9jZW50cmVmb3JhdmlhdGlvbi5jb20vZGF0YS9w cm9maWxlcy9haXJwb3J0cy9tYW5jaGVzdGVyLWFpcnBvcnQtbWFuP3V0bV9z b3VyY2U9Y2FwYSZ1dG1fbWVkaXVtPWVtYWlsJnV0bV9jYW1wYWlnbj1DQVBB JTIwQWxlcnRzVwNzcGNCCmNQNztaYyyd-DhSHWV2ZXJ5b25lQHNreWxpZ2h0YXZpYXRpb24uY29tWAQAAAAA), Dublin (https://link.centreforaviation.com/f/a/74UsRMozuCucLZOSxjJfMw~~/AAETtQA~/RgRlO263P0SDaHR0cHM6Ly9jZW50cmVmb3JhdmlhdGlvbi5jb20vZGF0YS9w cm9maWxlcy9haXJwb3J0cy9kdWJsaW4tYWlycG9ydC1kdWI_dXRtX3NvdXJj ZT1jYXBhJnV0bV9tZWRpdW09ZW1haWwmdXRtX2NhbXBhaWduPUNBUEElMjBB bGVydHNXA3NwY0IKY1A3O1pjLJ34OFIdZXZlcnlvbmVAc2t5bGlnaHRhdmlh dGlvbi5jb21YBAAAAAA~) and Amsterdam (https://link.centreforaviation.com/f/a/dlR1gaoqrcie6XaGzq-87g~~/AAETtQA~/RgRlO263P0SPaHR0cHM6Ly9jZW50cmVmb3JhdmlhdGlvbi5jb20vZGF0YS9w cm9maWxlcy9haXJwb3J0cy9hbXN0ZXJkYW0tc2NoaXBob2wtYWlycG9ydC1h bXM_dXRtX3NvdXJjZT1jYXBhJnV0bV9tZWRpdW09ZW1haWwmdXRtX2NhbXBh aWduPUNBUEElMjBBbGVydHNXA3NwY0IKY1A3O1pjLJ34OFIdZXZlcnlvbmVA c2t5bGlnaHRhdmlhdGlvbi5jb21YBAAAAAA~)); and four holiday routes to the southern Iberian peninsula.

Flybe (https://link.centreforaviation.com/f/a/WbGmQdiZ7I2D97qfT-XqiA~~/AAETtQA~/RgRlO263P0R5aHR0cHM6Ly9jZW50cmVmb3JhdmlhdGlvbi5jb20vZGF0YS9w cm9maWxlcy9haXJsaW5lcy9mbHliZS1iZT91dG1fc291cmNlPWNhcGEmdXRt X21lZGl1bT1lbWFpbCZ1dG1fY2FtcGFpZ249Q0FQQSUyMEFsZXJ0c1cDc3Bj QgpjUDc7WmMsnfg4Uh1ldmVyeW9uZUBza3lsaWdodGF2aWF0aW9uLmNvbVgE AAAAAA~~) was supposed to resume services to French regional cities this summer. Currently it serves Avignon (https://link.centreforaviation.com/f/a/sDf_6OdrZySFk5WkMTrLAg~~/AAETtQA~/RgRlO263P0SMaHR0cHM6Ly9jZW50cmVmb3JhdmlhdGlvbi5jb20vZGF0YS9w cm9maWxlcy9haXJwb3J0cy9hdmlnbm9uLWNhdW1vbnQtYWlycG9ydC1hdm4_ dXRtX3NvdXJjZT1jYXBhJnV0bV9tZWRpdW09ZW1haWwmdXRtX2NhbXBhaWdu PUNBUEElMjBBbGVydHNXA3NwY0IKY1A3O1pjLJ34OFIdZXZlcnlvbmVAc2t5 bGlnaHRhdmlhdGlvbi5jb21YBAAAAAA~) on a seasonal basis, and British Airways (https://link.centreforaviation.com/f/a/8m3oBPFXYlUiO3VjK_Z04A~~/AAETtQA~/RgRlO263P0SDaHR0cHM6Ly9jZW50cmVmb3JhdmlhdGlvbi5jb20vZGF0YS9w cm9maWxlcy9haXJsaW5lcy9icml0aXNoLWFpcndheXMtYmE_dXRtX3NvdXJj ZT1jYXBhJnV0bV9tZWRpdW09ZW1haWwmdXRtX2NhbXBhaWduPUNBUEElMjBB bGVydHNXA3NwY0IKY1A3O1pjLJ34OFIdZXZlcnlvbmVAc2t5bGlnaHRhdmlh dGlvbi5jb21YBAAAAAA~) has a raft of seasonal services to cities in the UK (https://link.centreforaviation.com/f/a/1qsJL61KTTagq3pTxCL2LA~~/AAETtQA~/RgRlO263P0SAaHR0cHM6Ly9jZW50cmVmb3JhdmlhdGlvbi5jb20vZGF0YS9w cm9maWxlcy9jb3VudHJpZXMvdW5pdGVkLWtpbmdkb20_dXRtX3NvdXJjZT1j YXBhJnV0bV9tZWRpdW09ZW1haWwmdXRtX2NhbXBhaWduPUNBUEElMjBBbGVy dHNXA3NwY0IKY1A3O1pjLJ34OFIdZXZlcnlvbmVAc2t5bGlnaHRhdmlhdGlv bi5jb21YBAAAAAA~) and Europe (https://link.centreforaviation.com/f/a/CS-2EJ3MHW-wdB-lnUp9gA~~/AAETtQA~/RgRlO263P0R2aHR0cHM6Ly9jZW50cmVmb3JhdmlhdGlvbi5jb20vZGF0YS9w cm9maWxlcy9yZWdpb25zL2V1cm9wZT91dG1fc291cmNlPWNhcGEmdXRtX21l ZGl1bT1lbWFpbCZ1dG1fY2FtcGFpZ249Q0FQQSUyMEFsZXJ0c1cDc3BjQgpj UDc7WmMsnfg4Uh1ldmVyeW9uZUBza3lsaWdodGF2aWF0aW9uLmNvbVgEAAAA AA~~), some of which are not currently operating.

There is at least potential for further development there, although Flybe (https://link.centreforaviation.com/f/a/WbGmQdiZ7I2D97qfT-XqiA~~/AAETtQA~/RgRlO263P0R5aHR0cHM6Ly9jZW50cmVmb3JhdmlhdGlvbi5jb20vZGF0YS9w cm9maWxlcy9haXJsaW5lcy9mbHliZS1iZT91dG1fc291cmNlPWNhcGEmdXRt X21lZGl1bT1lbWFpbCZ1dG1fY2FtcGFpZ249Q0FQQSUyMEFsZXJ0c1cDc3Bj QgpjUDc7WmMsnfg4Uh1ldmVyeW9uZUBza3lsaWdodGF2aWF0aW9uLmNvbVgE AAAAAA~~) will take time to build up its previous strength.

And that compares unfavourably with the pre-pandemic network, when there were services to Paris (https://link.centreforaviation.com/f/a/Xc9nblGyYaB8epwj1tbxlA~~/AAETtQA~/RgRlO263P0SUaHR0cHM6Ly9jZW50cmVmb3JhdmlhdGlvbi5jb20vZGF0YS9w cm9maWxlcy9haXJwb3J0cy9wYXJpcy1jaGFybGVzLWRlLWdhdWxsZS1haXJw b3J0LWNkZz91dG1fc291cmNlPWNhcGEmdXRtX21lZGl1bT1lbWFpbCZ1dG1f Y2FtcGFpZ249Q0FQQSUyMEFsZXJ0c1cDc3BjQgpjUDc7WmMsnfg4Uh1ldmVy eW9uZUBza3lsaWdodGF2aWF0aW9uLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~) and numerous other French cities as well.


Convenience hasn’t been enough

Southampton (https://link.centreforaviation.com/f/a/QZmaYtqWdESDu-LTPhHMyQ~~/AAETtQA~/RgRlO263P0SIaHR0cHM6Ly9jZW50cmVmb3JhdmlhdGlvbi5jb20vZGF0YS9w cm9maWxlcy9haXJwb3J0cy9zb3V0aGFtcHRvbi1haXJwb3J0LXNvdT91dG1f c291cmNlPWNhcGEmdXRtX21lZGl1bT1lbWFpbCZ1dG1fY2FtcGFpZ249Q0FQ QSUyMEFsZXJ0c1cDc3BjQgpjUDc7WmMsnfg4Uh1ldmVyeW9uZUBza3lsaWdo dGF2aWF0aW9uLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~)'s convenience compared to London Heathrow (https://link.centreforaviation.com/f/a/uWbccppw8IKd381IerHJQQ~~/AAETtQA~/RgRlO263P0SMaHR0cHM6Ly9jZW50cmVmb3JhdmlhdGlvbi5jb20vZGF0YS9w cm9maWxlcy9haXJwb3J0cy9sb25kb24taGVhdGhyb3ctYWlycG9ydC1saHI_ dXRtX3NvdXJjZT1jYXBhJnV0bV9tZWRpdW09ZW1haWwmdXRtX2NhbXBhaWdu PUNBUEElMjBBbGVydHNXA3NwY0IKY1A3O1pjLJ34OFIdZXZlcnlvbmVAc2t5 bGlnaHRhdmlhdGlvbi5jb21YBAAAAAA~) was a selling point, but never enough to attract a range of services to key European commercial centres.

Now that Heathrow (https://link.centreforaviation.com/f/a/uWbccppw8IKd381IerHJQQ~~/AAETtQA~/RgRlO263P0SMaHR0cHM6Ly9jZW50cmVmb3JhdmlhdGlvbi5jb20vZGF0YS9w cm9maWxlcy9haXJwb3J0cy9sb25kb24taGVhdGhyb3ctYWlycG9ydC1saHI_ dXRtX3NvdXJjZT1jYXBhJnV0bV9tZWRpdW09ZW1haWwmdXRtX2NhbXBhaWdu PUNBUEElMjBBbGVydHNXA3NwY0IKY1A3O1pjLJ34OFIdZXZlcnlvbmVAc2t5 bGlnaHRhdmlhdGlvbi5jb21YBAAAAAA~) has its third runway (although that is still many years away), Southampton (https://link.centreforaviation.com/f/a/QZmaYtqWdESDu-LTPhHMyQ~~/AAETtQA~/RgRlO263P0SIaHR0cHM6Ly9jZW50cmVmb3JhdmlhdGlvbi5jb20vZGF0YS9w cm9maWxlcy9haXJwb3J0cy9zb3V0aGFtcHRvbi1haXJwb3J0LXNvdT91dG1f c291cmNlPWNhcGEmdXRtX21lZGl1bT1lbWFpbCZ1dG1fY2FtcGFpZ249Q0FQ QSUyMEFsZXJ0c1cDc3BjQgpjUDc7WmMsnfg4Uh1ldmVyeW9uZUBza3lsaWdo dGF2aWF0aW9uLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~) may never be able to challenge the UK (https://link.centreforaviation.com/f/a/1qsJL61KTTagq3pTxCL2LA~~/AAETtQA~/RgRlO263P0SAaHR0cHM6Ly9jZW50cmVmb3JhdmlhdGlvbi5jb20vZGF0YS9w cm9maWxlcy9jb3VudHJpZXMvdW5pdGVkLWtpbmdkb20_dXRtX3NvdXJjZT1j YXBhJnV0bV9tZWRpdW09ZW1haWwmdXRtX2NhbXBhaWduPUNBUEElMjBBbGVy dHNXA3NwY0IKY1A3O1pjLJ34OFIdZXZlcnlvbmVAc2t5bGlnaHRhdmlhdGlv bi5jb21YBAAAAAA~)’s primary gateway for the full range of traffic it covets, but it is capable of attracting some of them.

Benefits from having a rail station and from being within the ‘Solent Freeport (https://link.centreforaviation.com/f/a/0oqop62Bo35XW3UAvceqow~~/AAETtQA~/RgRlO263P0SgaHR0cHM6Ly9jZW50cmVmb3JhdmlhdGlvbi5jb20vZGF0YS9w cm9maWxlcy9haXJwb3J0cy9mcmVlcG9ydC1ncmFuZC1iYWhhbWEtaW50ZXJu YXRpb25hbC1haXJwb3J0LWZwbz91dG1fc291cmNlPWNhcGEmdXRtX21lZGl1 bT1lbWFpbCZ1dG1fY2FtcGFpZ249Q0FQQSUyMEFsZXJ0c1cDc3BjQgpjUDc7 WmMsnfg4Uh1ldmVyeW9uZUBza3lsaWdodGF2aWF0aW9uLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~ )’

Southampton (https://link.centreforaviation.com/f/a/QZmaYtqWdESDu-LTPhHMyQ~~/AAETtQA~/RgRlO263P0SIaHR0cHM6Ly9jZW50cmVmb3JhdmlhdGlvbi5jb20vZGF0YS9w cm9maWxlcy9haXJwb3J0cy9zb3V0aGFtcHRvbi1haXJwb3J0LXNvdT91dG1f c291cmNlPWNhcGEmdXRtX21lZGl1bT1lbWFpbCZ1dG1fY2FtcGFpZ249Q0FQ QSUyMEFsZXJ0c1cDc3BjQgpjUDc7WmMsnfg4Uh1ldmVyeW9uZUBza3lsaWdo dGF2aWF0aW9uLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~) is one of the UK (https://link.centreforaviation.com/f/a/1qsJL61KTTagq3pTxCL2LA~~/AAETtQA~/RgRlO263P0SAaHR0cHM6Ly9jZW50cmVmb3JhdmlhdGlvbi5jb20vZGF0YS9w cm9maWxlcy9jb3VudHJpZXMvdW5pdGVkLWtpbmdkb20_dXRtX3NvdXJjZT1j YXBhJnV0bV9tZWRpdW09ZW1haWwmdXRtX2NhbXBhaWduPUNBUEElMjBBbGVy dHNXA3NwY0IKY1A3O1pjLJ34OFIdZXZlcnlvbmVAc2t5bGlnaHRhdmlhdGlv bi5jb21YBAAAAAA~) regional airports that have their own rail station (Southampton Airport (https://link.centreforaviation.com/f/a/QZmaYtqWdESDu-LTPhHMyQ~~/AAETtQA~/RgRlO263P0SIaHR0cHM6Ly9jZW50cmVmb3JhdmlhdGlvbi5jb20vZGF0YS9w cm9maWxlcy9haXJwb3J0cy9zb3V0aGFtcHRvbi1haXJwb3J0LXNvdT91dG1f c291cmNlPWNhcGEmdXRtX21lZGl1bT1lbWFpbCZ1dG1fY2FtcGFpZ249Q0FQ QSUyMEFsZXJ0c1cDc3BjQgpjUDc7WmMsnfg4Uh1ldmVyeW9uZUBza3lsaWdo dGF2aWF0aW9uLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~) Parkway), and it is situated on the main London Waterloo line, which is adjacent to the airport and continues to the west. There are also services connecting at Basingstoke into the English Midlands and beyond. It doubles as a ‘park and ride’ station for city commuters.

Another benefit for the airport is that the Solent (the strait between the Isle of Wight and Great Britain) was designated a ‘Freeport (https://link.centreforaviation.com/f/a/0oqop62Bo35XW3UAvceqow~~/AAETtQA~/RgRlO263P0SgaHR0cHM6Ly9jZW50cmVmb3JhdmlhdGlvbi5jb20vZGF0YS9w cm9maWxlcy9haXJwb3J0cy9mcmVlcG9ydC1ncmFuZC1iYWhhbWEtaW50ZXJu YXRpb25hbC1haXJwb3J0LWZwbz91dG1fc291cmNlPWNhcGEmdXRtX21lZGl1 bT1lbWFpbCZ1dG1fY2FtcGFpZ249Q0FQQSUyMEFsZXJ0c1cDc3BjQgpjUDc7 WmMsnfg4Uh1ldmVyeW9uZUBza3lsaWdodGF2aWF0aW9uLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~ )’ (special economic zone) in the 2021 UK (https://link.centreforaviation.com/f/a/1qsJL61KTTagq3pTxCL2LA~~/AAETtQA~/RgRlO263P0SAaHR0cHM6Ly9jZW50cmVmb3JhdmlhdGlvbi5jb20vZGF0YS9w cm9maWxlcy9jb3VudHJpZXMvdW5pdGVkLWtpbmdkb20_dXRtX3NvdXJjZT1j YXBhJnV0bV9tZWRpdW09ZW1haWwmdXRtX2NhbXBhaWduPUNBUEElMjBBbGVy dHNXA3NwY0IKY1A3O1pjLJ34OFIdZXZlcnlvbmVAc2t5bGlnaHRhdmlhdGlv bi5jb21YBAAAAAA~) Budget, one of eight new ones across the UK (https://link.centreforaviation.com/f/a/1qsJL61KTTagq3pTxCL2LA~~/AAETtQA~/RgRlO263P0SAaHR0cHM6Ly9jZW50cmVmb3JhdmlhdGlvbi5jb20vZGF0YS9w cm9maWxlcy9jb3VudHJpZXMvdW5pdGVkLWtpbmdkb20_dXRtX3NvdXJjZT1j YXBhJnV0bV9tZWRpdW09ZW1haWwmdXRtX2NhbXBhaWduPUNBUEElMjBBbGVy dHNXA3NwY0IKY1A3O1pjLJ34OFIdZXZlcnlvbmVAc2t5bGlnaHRhdmlhdGlv bi5jb21YBAAAAAA~).

Opportunity to build a low level ‘airport city’ to the north and east

Mr Szalay has indicated that once the runway extension is built more attention will be given to the ‘Navigator Quarter’ – land to the east and north of the airport where businesses will benefit from low taxes as part of the Solent Freeport (https://link.centreforaviation.com/f/a/0oqop62Bo35XW3UAvceqow~~/AAETtQA~/RgRlO263P0SgaHR0cHM6Ly9jZW50cmVmb3JhdmlhdGlvbi5jb20vZGF0YS9w cm9maWxlcy9haXJwb3J0cy9mcmVlcG9ydC1ncmFuZC1iYWhhbWEtaW50ZXJu YXRpb25hbC1haXJwb3J0LWZwbz91dG1fc291cmNlPWNhcGEmdXRtX21lZGl1 bT1lbWFpbCZ1dG1fY2FtcGFpZ249Q0FQQSUyMEFsZXJ0c1cDc3BjQgpjUDc7 WmMsnfg4Uh1ldmVyeW9uZUBza3lsaWdodGF2aWF0aW9uLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~ ) project.

He says that he would prefer the usage to be based on green technology. As the region is the home of the Spitfire (a World War 2 fighter aircraft), “we could say we’re the home of electronic aircraft”.

The likelihood is that Southampton (https://link.centreforaviation.com/f/a/QZmaYtqWdESDu-LTPhHMyQ~~/AAETtQA~/RgRlO263P0SIaHR0cHM6Ly9jZW50cmVmb3JhdmlhdGlvbi5jb20vZGF0YS9w cm9maWxlcy9haXJwb3J0cy9zb3V0aGFtcHRvbi1haXJwb3J0LXNvdT91dG1f c291cmNlPWNhcGEmdXRtX21lZGl1bT1lbWFpbCZ1dG1fY2FtcGFpZ249Q0FQ QSUyMEFsZXJ0c1cDc3BjQgpjUDc7WmMsnfg4Uh1ldmVyeW9uZUBza3lsaWdo dGF2aWF0aW9uLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~) will remain a ‘niche’ full service/commuter airport, with greater capacity on viable routes

It is difficult to gauge Southampton (https://link.centreforaviation.com/f/a/QZmaYtqWdESDu-LTPhHMyQ~~/AAETtQA~/RgRlO263P0SIaHR0cHM6Ly9jZW50cmVmb3JhdmlhdGlvbi5jb20vZGF0YS9w cm9maWxlcy9haXJwb3J0cy9zb3V0aGFtcHRvbi1haXJwb3J0LXNvdT91dG1f c291cmNlPWNhcGEmdXRtX21lZGl1bT1lbWFpbCZ1dG1fY2FtcGFpZ249Q0FQ QSUyMEFsZXJ0c1cDc3BjQgpjUDc7WmMsnfg4Uh1ldmVyeW9uZUBza3lsaWdo dGF2aWF0aW9uLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~)’s prospects for future success until the runway extension is completed and available for use by larger aircraft.

There are several different factors in play.

With Heathrow (https://link.centreforaviation.com/f/a/uWbccppw8IKd381IerHJQQ~~/AAETtQA~/RgRlO263P0SMaHR0cHM6Ly9jZW50cmVmb3JhdmlhdGlvbi5jb20vZGF0YS9w cm9maWxlcy9haXJwb3J0cy9sb25kb24taGVhdGhyb3ctYWlycG9ydC1saHI_ dXRtX3NvdXJjZT1jYXBhJnV0bV9tZWRpdW09ZW1haWwmdXRtX2NhbXBhaWdu PUNBUEElMjBBbGVydHNXA3NwY0IKY1A3O1pjLJ34OFIdZXZlcnlvbmVAc2t5 bGlnaHRhdmlhdGlvbi5jb21YBAAAAAA~) so close (60 miles, mainly by motorway), there may never be adequate demand for more than daily services to main business cities, and lack of frequency in that domain is not helpful.

The runway should be able to help attract low cost carriers but the price has to be right, and it will mean having to go head-to-head with Bournemouth (https://link.centreforaviation.com/f/a/jWUDoVZZWZIvKcuUW1m3BQ~~/AAETtQA~/RgRlO263P0SIaHR0cHM6Ly9jZW50cmVmb3JhdmlhdGlvbi5jb20vZGF0YS9w cm9maWxlcy9haXJwb3J0cy9ib3VybmVtb3V0aC1haXJwb3J0LWJvaD91dG1f c291cmNlPWNhcGEmdXRtX21lZGl1bT1lbWFpbCZ1dG1fY2FtcGFpZ249Q0FQ QSUyMEFsZXJ0c1cDc3BjQgpjUDc7WmMsnfg4Uh1ldmVyeW9uZUBza3lsaWdo dGF2aWF0aW9uLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~) (30 miles) and London Gatwick (https://link.centreforaviation.com/f/a/fgpQojZbd8EEejX-2gGURA~~/AAETtQA~/RgRlO263P0SLaHR0cHM6Ly9jZW50cmVmb3JhdmlhdGlvbi5jb20vZGF0YS9w cm9maWxlcy9haXJwb3J0cy9sb25kb24tZ2F0d2ljay1haXJwb3J0LWxndz91 dG1fc291cmNlPWNhcGEmdXRtX21lZGl1bT1lbWFpbCZ1dG1fY2FtcGFpZ249 Q0FQQSUyMEFsZXJ0c1cDc3BjQgpjUDc7WmMsnfg4Uh1ldmVyeW9uZUBza3ls aWdodGF2aWF0aW9uLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~) (85 miles by motorway).

Ultimately, Southampton (https://link.centreforaviation.com/f/a/QZmaYtqWdESDu-LTPhHMyQ~~/AAETtQA~/RgRlO263P0SIaHR0cHM6Ly9jZW50cmVmb3JhdmlhdGlvbi5jb20vZGF0YS9w cm9maWxlcy9haXJwb3J0cy9zb3V0aGFtcHRvbi1haXJwb3J0LXNvdT91dG1f c291cmNlPWNhcGEmdXRtX21lZGl1bT1lbWFpbCZ1dG1fY2FtcGFpZ249Q0FQ QSUyMEFsZXJ0c1cDc3BjQgpjUDc7WmMsnfg4Uh1ldmVyeW9uZUBza3lsaWdo dGF2aWF0aW9uLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~)'s future may continue to be as a niche airport, but with greater capacity on routes that can bear it.

[TCAS FAN]

Quick scan suggests most mornings have 6 departures before 1055, hardly stretched. This will of course rise on weekends in summer with BACF but the days of multiple BE launches before 0800 are long gone!

I believe that you’ve missed the point, I was indicating what SOU achieved with Flybe. Having used some of these flights I recollect the Terminal being busy but certainly appeared to not have reached its capacity.

[SKOJB]

I believe that you’ve missed the point, I was indicating what SOU achieved with Flybe. Having used some of these flights I recollect the Terminal being busy but certainly appeared to not have reached its capacity.

I agree with you and was trying to back up your point that we are now in different times with a large gap in capacity to be filled. The suggestion from some posters above that the terminal is incapable of handling an additional 2-3 early morning 320 departures I believe is incorrect

[TCAS FAN]

I agree with you and was trying to back up your point that we are now in different times with a large gap in capacity to be filled. The suggestion from some posters above that the terminal is incapable of handling an additional 2-3 early morning 320 departures I believe is incorrect

Point taken, agree that the Terminal is capable of handling considerably more than some of the thread doom-mongers are speculating. As some of the first wave of Flybe departures were E195s, do not see that there will be an immediate capacity problem if a couple of A320s are added, assuming of course that SOU and their Handling Agents can recruit/ train up sufficient staff!

[Rivet Joint]

The negativity on this thread is pathetic. What exactly do presumably grown men have against an inanimate object that many rely on to put food on their tables?

It was only a few years ago that annual passengers was at 2 million. Yes the world has changed slightly which is why they are changing their business model to serving low cost carriers. Guess what low cost carriers care about more than anything? YEILD. As proven on numerous routes more than enough people are willing to pay a whole lot more to fly from SOU than deal with the numerous issues at say LGW or BOH. If EZY or whoever can add an extra flight to Spain, Italy etc and charge double the price at SOU they are going to do it. I very much suspect that BOH is making a loss on FR’s ops as do most airports. They have a diverse portfolio of business that they derive money from and are therefore not a really a competitor to SOU.

I am not sure what this lagging behind other airports comment in that article is based on. I think compared to other regional airports SOU is doing amazingly. It’s got 9 airlines and a tour operator all using it. Yes 9! Tell me another regional airport that has that.

[SWBKCB]

There may be more carriers, but they are carrying fewer passengers and the numbers aren't increasing

Nevertheless, a loss during which air transport has come close to the same seat capacity levels and passenger business as 2019 in the UK (https://link.centreforaviation.com/f/a/Sm3qkzvfIr92RRQnTuyKiw~~/AAETtQA~/RgRlOMu5P0SAaHR0cHM6Ly9jZW50cmVmb3JhdmlhdGlvbi5jb20vZGF0YS9w cm9maWxlcy9jb3VudHJpZXMvdW5pdGVkLWtpbmdkb20_dXRtX3NvdXJjZT1j YXBhJnV0bV9tZWRpdW09ZW1haWwmdXRtX2NhbXBhaWduPUNBUEElMjBBbGVy dHNXA3NwY0IKY1Y5mFdjl2oP5lIdZXZlcnlvbmVAc2t5bGlnaHRhdmlhdGlv bi5jb21YBAAAAAA~) is worrying.
And unfortunately, Southampton (https://link.centreforaviation.com/f/a/cYsYXu0U9TAgCgpAuB-Gqg~~/AAETtQA~/RgRlOMu5P0SIaHR0cHM6Ly9jZW50cmVmb3JhdmlhdGlvbi5jb20vZGF0YS9w cm9maWxlcy9haXJwb3J0cy9zb3V0aGFtcHRvbi1haXJwb3J0LXNvdT91dG1f c291cmNlPWNhcGEmdXRtX21lZGl1bT1lbWFpbCZ1dG1fY2FtcGFpZ249Q0FQ QSUyMEFsZXJ0c1cDc3BjQgpjVjmYV2OXag_mUh1ldmVyeW9uZUBza3lsaWdo dGF2aWF0aW9uLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~) has not come close to those capacity levels, lagging the UK (https://link.centreforaviation.com/f/a/Sm3qkzvfIr92RRQnTuyKiw~~/AAETtQA~/RgRlOMu5P0SAaHR0cHM6Ly9jZW50cmVmb3JhdmlhdGlvbi5jb20vZGF0YS9w cm9maWxlcy9jb3VudHJpZXMvdW5pdGVkLWtpbmdkb20_dXRtX3NvdXJjZT1j YXBhJnV0bV9tZWRpdW09ZW1haWwmdXRtX2NhbXBhaWduPUNBUEElMjBBbGVy dHNXA3NwY0IKY1Y5mFdjl2oP5lIdZXZlcnlvbmVAc2t5bGlnaHRhdmlhdGlv bi5jb21YBAAAAAA~) average.
In the week commencing 10-Oct-2022 capacity at Southampton (https://link.centreforaviation.com/f/a/cYsYXu0U9TAgCgpAuB-Gqg~~/AAETtQA~/RgRlOMu5P0SIaHR0cHM6Ly9jZW50cmVmb3JhdmlhdGlvbi5jb20vZGF0YS9w cm9maWxlcy9haXJwb3J0cy9zb3V0aGFtcHRvbi1haXJwb3J0LXNvdT91dG1f c291cmNlPWNhcGEmdXRtX21lZGl1bT1lbWFpbCZ1dG1fY2FtcGFpZ249Q0FQ QSUyMEFsZXJ0c1cDc3BjQgpjVjmYV2OXag_mUh1ldmVyeW9uZUBza3lsaWdo dGF2aWF0aW9uLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~) stands at just less than 51% of what it was in the same week of 2019, and is barely above 2020 and 2021 levels.

[RW20]

There's just a little matter of losing 4 million + a year with the current limited routes and plane sizes.

[Rivet Joint]

There may be more carriers, but they are carrying fewer passengers and the numbers aren't increasing

Why are Logan increasing the number of daily rotations on their routes in the summer?

why were there 3 carriers fighting over the Belfast route and still 2 now?

Why are there soon to be 2 carriers fighting over the Dublin route?

why are there soon to be 2 carriers fighting over the Manchester route?

why are there soon to be 2 carriers fighting over Glasgow and Edinburgh routes?

why are KLM going double daily soon despite the government putting caps on amount of flights?

why are BA citiflyer continuing to choose Southampton as the base for its summer flying at the weekends?

why is the airport investing many many millions in the runway extension if there is no gain?

[SWBKCB]

why don't you read what has been written?

All of that may be true but you said

I am not sure what this lagging behind other airports comment in that article is based on.

It's based on the current figures that show that SOU is at 51% pre Covid where as the average figure across the UK is 89%. Hence SOU is currently lagging behind its peers - that may change but it isn't the position now.

[Skipness One Foxtrot]

Guess what low cost carriers care about more than anything? YEILD.
And volume, masses and masses of high volume throughput. High yield is possible in small turboprops at 50% load factor, with the locos, they'll be expecting to fill every possible seat on every flight on every day, which coupled with ancillary revenue streams drives yield and profitability. It's a time of change for sure at SOU.

[stewyb]

Let’s take a step back, the simple fact is that at present although the airlines and routes are being served, the frequency and pax numbers are not where they need to be and has much to do with an historical over reliance on BE/it’s subsequent demise, Covid change of landscape and current airfield restrictions. It is what it is and the airport are working extremely hard to resolve this issue. The runway extension is moving ahead and will be in place as soon as possible, that may be for summer next year or by autumn, but it’s happening. In the meantime, the odd destination is being added and frequencies increased that will help the financial bottom line, however small. It will require a certain change in business model with money also being spend on other infrastructure including aircraft stand redesign. There will almost certainly be new carriers to the airport in the near future as SOU is a very attractive option, so let’s wait and see and be grateful that the airport is still here and has a bright future to look forward to.

[Albert Hall]

Flybe went bust because its business model didn't work. By extension, if SOU's business model was dependent on Flybe and the airport is in continued trouble as a result of Flybe's failure, its own business model doesn't work. Neither are anything to do with the pandemic - Flybe was in dire straits long before anyone heard the word "Coronavirus". As if to illustrate the point, the reincarnation seems to be doing its level best to scatter itself thinly across the Great British countryside and repeat many of the mistakes!

The airport needs to find a new path which I think can only be based on a reduced passenger throughput, reduced operating costs and higher average income per passenger. Chasing volume at low fares has been the undoing of many a smaller airport (Coventry, Blackpool and now Doncaster to name examples) and there are few where it's truly sustainable.

It can be done and I do not subscribe to the view that the airport will close/disappear/go bust/be sold for building land. It has a market but that market is not the same size or shape as it was before, so it must adapt to that new landscape.

[Rivet Joint]

There may be more carriers, but they are carrying fewer passengers and the numbers aren't increasing

which is a skewed way of looking at things. 2019 was pre Covid and when Flybe was around and had monopolised the airport. It’s demise and the fact there are no other airlines like it to provide a sizeable base with the current limited runway is why growth looks slow. plus Doncaster is shutting down and the likes of Exeter, Southend etc have hardly recovered as well as Southampton. All the physical signs are there with airlines fighting over routes and the airport investing. I booked a flight the other day and there were hardly any seats left. So I wouldn’t read into that part of the article as it’s misleading.

Also for the poster who is pointing out the demise of Flybe reflects badly on the airport most of its routes at Southampton were profitable. Flybe’s demise was a result of many other issues that have long been discussed on this forum.


This thread should be a predominantly positive one.

[Rivet Joint]

And volume, masses and masses of high volume throughput. High yield is possible in small turboprops at 50% load factor, with the locos, they'll be expecting to fill every possible seat on every flight on every day, which coupled with ancillary revenue streams drives yield and profitability. It's a time of change for sure at SOU.

Volume is preferable but not as important as yield. If you have a plane carrying 180 people who paid £5 for a ticket and one carrying 50 people who paid £150 I know which I would prefer.

[Skipness One Foxtrot]

Locos need both, if they don't FILL their aircraft, they move the asset to another base or route. Ryanair and easyJet have a long track record of closing profitable routes because they under-perform. They're laser focussed on high volume, low cost, high ancillary and high load factors. So when people talk about a route working with seats blocked off it's not music to the ears of locos unless they have an amazing airport deal on fees. As soon as that runs out, the dynamics change and the routes get cut, sadly Ryanair do this at a few of their bases.

Look at easyJet at EMA and SEN or Ryanair at BHD vs. BFS and SEN, also Ryanair PIK vs. GLA.

[cavokblues]

which is a skewed way of looking at things. 2019 was pre Covid and when Flybe was around and had monopolised the airport. It’s demise and the fact there are no other airlines like it to provide a sizeable base with the current limited runway is why growth looks slow. plus Doncaster is shutting down and the likes of Exeter, Southend etc have hardly recovered as well as Southampton. All the physical signs are there with airlines fighting over routes and the airport investing. I booked a flight the other day and there were hardly any seats left. So I wouldn’t read into that part of the article as it’s misleading.

Also for the poster who is pointing out the demise of Flybe reflects badly on the airport most of its routes at Southampton were profitable. Flybe’s demise was a result of many other issues that have long been discussed on this forum.


This thread should be a predominantly positive one.

I do find it slightly perplexing the 'new' Flybe haven't focused more on Southampton in their reincarnation. We've been told they had all the data from the old airline so why haven't they made a larger effort to take back their old stomping ground?

[SWBKCB]

I do find it slightly perplexing the 'new' Flybe haven't focused more on Southampton in their reincarnation. We've been told they had all the data from the old airline so why haven't they made a larger effort to take back their old stomping ground?

Could be any number of reasons - starter for ten

- BE don't have the access to all the data like we all think;
- BE do have the data, but the routes weren't as profitable as we've been led to believe;
- BE aren't operating in a logical, profit oreintated manner;
- with other carriers on the major routes, SOU have told them to do one...

[shamrock7seal]

If TUI and RYR can base a single aircraft each at BOH and perform successfully with very limited public transport infrastructure, then I see no reason why they can’t also replicate the same at SOU (post extension) with a few select routes utilising the excellent road and rail links

The point that everyone seems to miss with this runway extension is that it's only 164m. It doesn't change the landing distance available at one end, only the other. It doesn't widen the runway. The obstacles are still there i.e the hill and the train sheds. Yes the trees are being lowered but this is simply not enough to allow unrestricted operations for LCC's with A320's operating to the med. They will still experience payload penalties, wet runway issues, and operating hour restrictions. That last one is a killer for any airline wishing to operate with a high utilisation.

If they do manage to attract an LCC or two, it won't last long. I'm not trying to be negative. I'm just stating the facts.

The only way this airport survives is regional flying, unrestricted regional flying, connecting to hubs, get Paris back! They need to build the business park in order to allow them to generate an income which isn't only aviation - this plugs the £4.5m gap. In theory. But attracting an LCC that doesn't want to pay aviation fee's will worsen the financial situation of SOU not improve it.

[cavokblues]

The only way this airport survives is regional flying,

I agree with you that the LCC market won't neccessarily be the golden goose the airport might think it is. But, the problem is, what is the future of regional flying in the UK looking like? Loganair reported a small profit, but it's only a profit margin of 3%. Cityflyer lost £50m* last year and are reducing their fleet. We've no idea what the finances for the new Flybe look like but their load factor is 50%. Hard to see how you make money these days on a Dash 8 flying, on average, 39 people around. (*I accept these finances were based on a covid impacted year so might be different next time out)

The regional market isn't exactly bouncing with opportunities for the airport so they either cut their cloth accordingly or try to entice the LCCs in.

[SKOJB]

The point that everyone seems to miss with this runway extension is that it's only 164m. It doesn't change the landing distance available at one end, only the other. It doesn't widen the runway. The obstacles are still there i.e the hill and the train sheds. Yes the trees are being lowered but this is simply not enough to allow unrestricted operations for LCC's with A320's operating to the med. They will still experience payload penalties, wet runway issues, and operating hour restrictions. That last one is a killer for any airline wishing to operate with a high utilisation.

If they do manage to attract an LCC or two, it won't last long. I'm not trying to be negative. I'm just stating the facts.

The only way this airport survives is regional flying, unrestricted regional flying, connecting to hubs, get Paris back! They need to build the business park in order to allow them to generate an income which isn't only aviation - this plugs the £4.5m gap. In theory. But attracting an LCC that doesn't want to pay aviation fee's will worsen the financial situation of SOU not improve it.

Blimey does that enormous BOH hat still fit you?

[SWBKCB]

They will still experience payload penalties, wet runway issues, and operating hour restrictions. That last one is a killer for any airline wishing to operate with a high utilisation.

Airfield operations 06.30 – 21.30 (Contact us for out of hours requests)

https://www.bournemouthairport.com/airfield-pilot-information/

[shamrock7seal]

Extensions at BOH are given on a daily basis to TUI and Ryanair to arrive 23:30-01:30. Good luck getting SOU to do similar or indeed for the local community to agree to it - the airport is smack bang in the middle of the city.

[TCAS FAN]

Extensions at BOH are given on a daily basis to TUI and Ryanair to arrive 23:30-01:30. Good luck getting SOU to do similar or indeed for the local community to agree to it - the airport is smack bang in the middle of the city.

Please get your facts right, most of the airport (except for a few hundred metres at the south end of the runway) is outside the city limits and within the Borough of Eastleigh - which is by no way a suburb of Southampton.

It's Southampton International Airport, not Southampton City Airport!

[TCAS FAN]

Extensions at BOH are given on a daily basis to TUI and Ryanair to arrive 23:30-01:30. Good luck getting SOU to do similar or indeed for the local community to agree to it - the airport is smack bang in the middle of the city.

As indicated in my post 1044 the past problem was not the Section 106 Agreement which prevented late arrivals, it was staffing issues, particularly ATC, which caused the diversions of some delayed arrivals, which were (and may still be) permitted provided that they were scheduled in before 2300HR.

With regards to ATC manning the minimum staffing was two ATCOs for TWR and APS provision. This has, in the past few years, been reduced with CAA approval given for combining both services with one ATCO in the tower. Consequently, from an ATC manning viewpoint delayed arrivals may be a workable option. That said I understand that SOU AGS staff are on the verge of industrial action in support of a pay claim, so yet another hurdle for SOU to negotiate.

[shamrock7seal]

So you're saying SOU will be prepared (subject to staffing) to be open regularly up to 23:00 once the extension is completed?

For a based LCC to make arrivals in before 23:00 is still, in my humble opinion, too tight. They need the flex to 00:00 or 01:00 to make it work factoring in delays and preventing diversions to alternates.

[TCAS FAN]

So you're saying SOU will be prepared (subject to staffing) to be open regularly up to 23:00 once the extension is completed?

For a based LCC to make arrivals in before 23:00 is still, in my humble opinion, too tight. They need the flex to 00:00 or 01:00 to make it work factoring in delays and preventing diversions to alternates.

I am no longer involved in determining airport operating policy/business strategy, so cannot possibly comment on any ability for SOU to routinely extend beyond normal published operating hours.

I view of the inference that no arrivals after 2300HR were permitted, all I have attempted to do is impart my understanding of the original provisions of the Section 106 agreement in respect of not permitting scheduling of arrivals after 2300. This may have changed in which case I invite any thread readers, who may have a copy of the 106 currently in place, to confirm/update this understanding.

Furthermore, I have highlighted what has changed with ATC manning requirements, which formerly required two ATCOs to provide service over. Provision of ATC cover, which invariably caused diversions, should therefore technically be easier to facilitate.

[zantopst]

Some positive news to add. EasyJet have now added a Friday service to Geneva from February to make it 6 flights a week for the last couple of months of the ski season. So. 2 x sat. Sun. Tue. Thur and now Friday.

[rog747]

Taking off to Dublin with Aer Lingus - On SOU's Facebook today.
Visit the capital of Ireland, and experience its rich history, cosmopolitan atmosphere along with many great independent shops, cafes, and restaurants.
Head to the Aer Lingus website to book your trip now!

Great - but does it connect with the EI USA (and Canada) flights so we can get pre-clearance at DUB >?

Also re TUI at BOH late flights this season saw many running late flights end up going to STN and LGW because they were late back and BOH would be closed - TUI customer loyalty has been damaged and anyone booking a flight with a return landing STA at BOH after 23:00 be warned.

[TCAS FAN]

So you're saying SOU will be prepared (subject to staffing) to be open regularly up to 23:00 once the extension is completed?

For a based LCC to make arrivals in before 23:00 is still, in my humble opinion, too tight. They need the flex to 00:00 or 01:00 to make it work factoring in delays and preventing diversions to alternates.[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE=rog747;11323661].........................

Also re TUI at BOH late flights this season saw many running late flights end up going to STN and LGW because they were late back and BOH would be closed - TUI customer loyalty has been damaged and anyone booking a flight with a return landing STA at BOH after 23:00 be warned.

Looks as if even the flex 00:00 to 01:00 doesn't always work?

[Flitefone]

So you're saying SOU will be prepared (subject to staffing) to be open regularly up to 23:00 once the extension is completed?

For a based LCC to make arrivals in before 23:00 is still, in my humble opinion, too tight. They need the flex to 00:00 or 01:00 to make it work factoring in delays and preventing diversions to alternates.



Looks as if even the flex 00:00 to 01:00 doesn't always work?

It works unless there is a long delay on the flight. The TUI diverts, and I believe there were several over the season, were due to a late running flight, they seemed good - usually till 01:30 - but beyond that not. The Airport actually advertises H24 availability by arrangement. I think this year has been exceptional everywhere for staff sickness and staff shortages generally.

The general point about LCC is correct though, they need early and late slots every day, the ability to run six sectors a day, a terminal that can cope with the passenger volumes, need for parking bays, and a runway that has sufficient capability to permit unrestricted flights to their chosen destinations. And in some cases, CATIII ILS. If any one of those elements is missing, then the prospect of LCC base diminishes. LGW for instance fails for Jet2 on the slot availability - probably until the northern (standby) runway is approved for regular use - 2030 ish. Or, for example, if EZY were to be sold to IAG, and has as a result to relinquish some of their existing portfolio at LGW.


FF

[RW20]

Flitefone
You make some valid points that illustrate that conditions for any LCC to operate from Southampton cannot be met!. Therefore the runway extension will not attract such operations.However it will accommodate larger aircraft on current Summer Mediterranean destinations,and that's about it.Let's hope this is enough to make the airport profitable.

[stewyb]

Flitefone
You make some valid points that illustrate that conditions for any LCC to operate from Southampton cannot be met!. Therefore the runway extension will not attract such operations.However it will accommodate larger aircraft on current Summer Mediterranean destinations,and that's about it.Let's hope this is enough to make the airport profitable.

Let’s get this right, you admit the airport will attract larger aircraft to summer destinations yet never attract a LCC. Please do not underestimate this airport for the future!

[RW20]

Just to be clear, I'm saying the likes of Tui, etc could use 320s instead of cityflyer 195,therefore offering twice capacity.However the restrictions of opening times,etc is not a workable position for a based LCC. It's not happening in 2023,so fingers crossed for 2024.

[SWBKCB]

A planned one-day strike by staff at Southampton Airport has been called off following an improved pay offer. Workers including airside operations controllers, firefighters, technicians and engineers had been due to walk out on 5, 12 and 19 November.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-hampshire-63484053

[TCAS FAN]

.......................................

First hoop, before any work can commence, is CAA approval of the overall project planning and execution plan.

The CAA are not renowned for their speed of work, so hopefully the CAP 791 process has already been commenced by AGS.

Part of the planning process is recognition of the impact that the construction work will have on any aircraft movements, and putting in place mitigation measures to ensure that they can safely continue.

An overview of the project, its scheduling and its temporary impact on aircraft movements will be most likely be set out in a UK AIP Supplement, which itself may have short term issues highlighted or notified via NOTAM as the project progresses.

When the AIP Supplement is published it can be accessed online via:

https://nats-uk.ead-it.com/cms-nats/opencms/en/Publications/aip-supplements/

AIP Supplements are published every 28 days. As of today nothing is currently shown. The next batch of Supplements are due for publication on 17 November.

...........

Have been able to preview the 17 November AIP Supplements, nothing shown related to the runway extension, so no ground breaking until at least 15 December. Will provide an update in about four weeks, unless the AGS media machine or another source has by then already revealed a start date.

[stewyb]

Have been able to preview the 17 November AIP Supplements, nothing shown related to the runway extension, so no ground breaking until at least 15 December. Will provide an update in about four weeks, unless the AGS media machine or another source has by then already revealed a start date.

Early April for first spades in the ground, that’s the current plan!

[RW20]

Have been able to preview the 17 November AIP Supplements, nothing shown related to the runway extension, so no ground breaking until at least 15 December. Will provide an update in about four weeks, unless the AGS media machine or another source has by then already revealed a start date.
​​​​​​TCAS FAN

It's becoming clearer that when the extension works will start is a lot later then expected. Surely the works would have been better being done winter 22/23 ,rather than as suggested by other contributors starting in April 23?
If this is the case then the extension will not provide any advantage to the airport to at least 2024,given that the work might not be complete to early Winter 2023.
The airport was cleared to go ahead with its plans in early August 2022,this seems a long time to completion. In addition to this the height restrictions on approach to 02 and take off 20 are yet to be resolved,and with the extinction rebellion chomping at the bit,will they?
It's a very unsatisfactory situation the airport management should have resolved long ago

[SWBKCB]

It's becoming clearer that when the extension works will start is a lot later then expected.

Expected by whom? Anybody here know whats involved in organising and financing such a project? Availability of contractors? Regulatory approval? etc

[davidjohnson6]

How long will the runway extension take to do ? How long will it *really* take, allowing for the inevitable things to go wrong ?

[TCAS FAN]

​​​​​​TCAS FAN

It's becoming clearer that when the extension works will start is a lot later then expected. Surely the works would have been better being done winter 22/23 ,rather than as suggested by other contributors starting in April 23?
If this is the case then the extension will not provide any advantage to the airport to at least 2024,given that the work might not be complete to early Winter 2023.
The airport was cleared to go ahead with its plans in early August 2022,this seems a long time to completion. In addition to this the height restrictions on approach to 02 and take off 20 are yet to be resolved,and with the extinction rebellion chomping at the bit,will they?
It's a very unsatisfactory situation the the airport management should have resolved long ago

IMHO the main problem will be mitigating the impact on runway declared distances when excavations start. This is due to the requirement for a protected area (runway strip end-60M + RESA-90M) prior to runway threshold, and at the end of the TORA, to provide protection for a possible undershoot/overrun.

Runway 20 threshold is displaced by 45M, so any excavation work within 105M beyond the northern runway end would cause a further temporary displacement (rendering the 20 PAPIS and ILS Glideslope unusable) and reducing 20 LDA, in order to safeguard 150M undershoot requirement.

The 02 TORA ends at the northern runway end so any excavations will impact on the 02 TORA and 02 LDA.

AGS's cunning plan to work around strip end/RESA requirements should be revealed in the AIP Supplement.

Exceptionally the issue could be managed with little or no impact if most work is done outside airport operating hours (ie night) and the surface restored to an acceptable gradient prior to the airport re-opening. However, I suspect that such action would greatly escalate costs/ project length well beyond a tolerable level.

[RW20]

TCAS FAN
Another excellent explanation on the prospective developments.,a little disconcerting on the impact on the airports nav aids,and considering 2023 isn't going to be a good year for PAX, ( Bearing in mind the airport is running at a considerable lost) and again the late work starting time ( this is still up in the air) is going to be challenging to the airports financial status.
​​​​​​

[SKOJB]

Maybe there will be some additional routes added for W22/23 schedule (from October) if runway work is starting in April next year!

[RW20]

SKOJB
what profitable routes could be added?
Certainly the Canary islands is out,given the distance it would have load restrictions.
I feel the extension offers Summer routes to the med to accomodate an upgrade to 320s status,but this is limited by demand ,given BOU have an established set up.
Certainly there should be no great expections on many new routes,given the financial outlook.
The extension when done( and it seems to be very long drawn out event) will offer max loads to existing operators in hot weather
Its tough times for regional airports,certainly with limited runway length,BOU are reaping the benifits of a fully usable runway for all Sun routes

[Buster the Bear]

You need Baltic to open a base with their A220-300 fleet.

[SKOJB]

SKOJB
what profitable routes could be added?
Certainly the Canary islands is out,given the distance it would have load restrictions.
I feel the extension offers Summer routes to the med to accomodate an upgrade to 320s status,but this is limited by demand ,given BOU have an established set up.
Certainly there should be no great expections on many new routes,given the financial outlook.
The extension when done( and it seems to be very long drawn out event) will offer max loads to existing operators in hot weather
Its tough times for regional airports,certainly with limited runway length,BOU are reaping the benifits of a fully usable runway for all Sun routes

Your point around demand is surely just not true. There is most definitely enough demand in the area and If the right route/carrier can operate it, they will come without a doubt. It’s BOH who will need to be careful as any growth at SOU will undoubtedly take footfall away from them!

[cavokblues]

It’s BOH who will need to be careful as any growth at SOU will undoubtedly take footfall away from them!

If, for example, easyJet dip their toe into the Southampton market it would be interesting how Ryanair respond at Bournemouth if the operations are partly duplicated. Cheap flights to drive them out of town?

[SKOJB]

If, for example, easyJet dip their toe into the Southampton market it would be interesting how Ryanair respond at Bournemouth if the operations are partly duplicated. Cheap flights to drive them out of town?

Many people would pay a small premium not to fly RYR (of course in my humble opinion)

[TCAS FAN]

SKOJB
what profitable routes could be added?
Certainly the Canary islands is out,given the distance it would have load restrictions.
I feel the extension offers Summer routes to the med to accomodate an upgrade to 320s status,but this is limited by demand ,given BOU have an established set up.
Certainly there should be no great expections on many new routes,given the financial outlook.
The extension when done( and it seems to be very long drawn out event) will offer max loads to existing operators in hot weather
Its tough times for regional airports,certainly with limited runway length,BOU are reaping the benifits of a fully usable runway for all Sun routes

Why dismiss SOU/TFS? Did not EZY not operate SEN/TFS, and prior to the advent of the Neos?

I've previously speculated on SEN vs new superior SOU runway declared distances, so why dismiss the SOU/TFS possibility?

[cavokblues]

Many people would pay a small premium not to fly RYR (of course in my humble opinion)

I guess we will wait to see whether enough of them will!

[Sotonsean]

You need Baltic to open a base with their A220-300 fleet.

Air Baltic have indeed made recent announcements about expansion plans for bases outside of their current Baltic States operations.

​​​​​​But Air Baltic would need to have a UK AOC to be able to set up a base at a UK airport.

​​​​​​With so many opportunities within the EU I can't see Air Baltic going through the process of obtaining a UK AOC especially with growth in the UK travel industry stagnating as we move forward.

If it were the case that Air Baltic obtained a UK AOC their A220s would be an ideal aircraft for Southampton.

[Albert Hall]

They wouldn’t need a UK AOC to fly UK-EU flights. It would only be needed if they wanted to fly domestically or UK-third country ops.

[adfly]

ACL reports for S23 are out, some interesting requests in the SOU one: https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiYWY0OWZhOTctNzExMy00ODAwLThjOTYtMGFkYzNmNzk5M DkxIiwidCI6ImJhNzNmYjViLWM1ZWUtNGNiNy04NzFjLWU4YjI0NWQwYjY3Y iJ9

Usual caveat applies that these are requests only so may not actually happen. Frequencies roughly based on routes operating over the whole season (late March to late Oct).

Aer Lingus (Emerald)

- 26 weekly departures in a peak week (w/c 07/08)

Aurigny

- 21 weekly departures in a peak week (w/c 07/08)

BA Cityflyer

- Less AGP and EGC flights
- New route to BLQ
- No IBZ/NCE/FLR (already known)
- 13 weekly departures in a peak week (w/c 07/08)

Blue Islands

- 37 weekly departures in a peak week (w/c 07/08)

Eastern Airways

- New route to BFS(!) - 12 weekly
- New route to ORK - 7 weekly
- Increase MAN to 23 weekly
- 49 weekly departures in a peak week (w/c 07/08)

Flybe

- New route to ORY - 12 weekly
- MAN continues 12 weekly, GLA and EDI at 7 weekly
- 45 weekly departures in a peak week (w/c 07/08)

KLM Cityhopper

- 14 weekly departures in a peak week (w/c 07/08)

Loganair

- EDI and GLA increased (already known)
- NCL increased to 20 weekly
- 3 weekly route to 'SOU' - possible new route - IOM?
- 84 weekly departures in a peak week (w/c 07/08)

294 weekly departures on (w/c 07/08) compared to 200 weekly departures this year, so some good growth if most of these changes happen.

[SKOJB]

Suggested on another thread that ORY slots were never obtained by BE, Paris is definitely required however. Decent growth indeed throughout S23 and with a smattering of new med/city break routes post extension, the airport will be well on its way to break even of 1.1m pax pa!

[RW20]

TCAS FAN
what are the implications for the airport runway extension given that they have been refused today permission to fell trees in Marhill Copse?

[TCAS FAN]

TCAS FAN
what are the implications for the airport runway extension given that they have been refused today permission to fell trees in Marhill Copse?

Not being a performance specialist I cannot precisely quantify the impact on take-off weights. That said I can only make the observation that when the E145s first started operating a number of the trees were in such proximity to the end of the TORA that they were too close to be able to make the 15 degree turn to take advantage of the far better obstacle environment that this provided. A figure of up to 3 tonnes penalty was mentioned. This situation may well be currently the case with other turbo-jet ops.

When the extension is completed, as the commencement of TORA will be farther from the trees it may possibly be sufficient to permit execution of the 15 degree turn, thereby removing, the weight penalty.

Hopefully a worst case scenario of an extension without tree reduction has already been considered by AGS, and discussed with prospective future aircraft operators, during formulation of the business case to fund the extension.

An extension plus tree reduction was always the ideal scenario, time will tell when we see what additional routes are generated on completion of just the extension.

[stewyb]

Marlhill Copse is for another day, extension remains the big priority!

[RW20]

Thank you TCAS FAN

Lets hope that without the tree lopping there will still be an attraction for airlines to Summer routes.
However it seems that the extension is becoming a long drawn out affair with possible penalties on take off still effective

[Sotonsean]

Have Flybe cancelled Avignon and Toulon for summer 2023?

A shame if they have done.

With so many French destinations that were previously served from Southampton before the collapse of Flybe (mark I) and the pandemic it's a pity that most are still unserved.

So we have Eastern Airways who previously announced Nantes and Rennes but never got around to serving either and now possibly Flybe abandoning Avignon and Toulon after only operating to those destinations for just a few weeks in peak summer 2022.

I'm still surprised that Air France haven't got around to announcing Paris CDG. I know many of you might think otherwise especially with KLM serving Amsterdam. With Air France having spare capacity with the recent abandonment of several domestic routes I would have expected an announcement by now.

I would much prefer to see Air France resume Paris CDG rather than the possibility of Flybe to Paris ORY.

[southamptonavgeek]

I was under the impression that they had not yet released the summer schedules. It could just be the case that they have removed the destinations from their website until the announcement. Having looked at slots there seemed to be several daily Paris flights listed so one assumes that it is not to be the only new route.
​

[BA318]

It was reported that Flybe dropped them. As for Paris Flybe got slots at SOU but not in Paris. The French short haul ban has ended up only stopping three routes.

[Sotonsean]

Indeed the French domestic ban was originally going to be six routes but the French parliament agreed on three for the present time.

​​​​​Paris ORY to Bordeaux, Lyon and Rennes.

Indeed Flybe applied to ACL for flights between Southampton and Paris ORY but were unable to secure slots at the latter.

I'm sure that Air France would have no issues with slots regarding a Paris CDG service.

As I mentioned in my previous post, I would much prefer to see Air France resuming flights between Southampton to Paris CDG than Flybe possibly flying between Southampton and Paris ORY.

[southamptonavgeek]

I was looking more at the frequencies listed. Please do correct me if wrong however my amateur calculation when the report came out suggested around 4-8 daily flights (I cannot now recall the exact number). Would that not suggest that the slots at Southampton were/are also to be put to use on other routes, such as the Avignon service?

[SWBKCB]

Asked whether plans to extend the runway at Southampton Airport could tempt Ryanair to direct some of its flights there, Mr Wilson said: “When you’ve got an established business and an established partnership and an established passenger base, you don’t move that – we tend not to do that unless the relationship changes in terms of cost. We just did an announcement in Bristol, an extra aircraft here in Bournemouth and we’ve announced a number of routes into Newquay. There’s plenty of room for expansion, particularly if you’ve got great-value low fares, so Southampton isn’t top of our list of what we might or might not do. We’ve got 234 airports. We’ve enough on our plate for the time being.”

https://www.bournemouthecho.co.uk/news/23182839.southampton-airport-reacts-ryanair-comments-bournemouth-growth/

[RW20]

https://www.bournemouthecho.co.uk/news/23182839.southampton-airport-reacts-ryanair-comments-bournemouth-growth/
The problem with SOU is that it has poor landing aids compared to Bournemouth and is prone to fog ,resulting to diversions,something the likes of ryanair,and I suspect Easy will not accept.The last day or so highlights this with diversions away fro SOU.
Bournemouth seems to be rolling along very nicely,its management team have done a great job.SOU team need to get the expansion work done now,but there is little sign of that at the moment.

[stewyb]

RW20 - extension works start early April and are scheduled to complete mid August. Now let’s put this continual question from you to bed shall we!

[RW20]

I would be very interested to know where you you.get your facts from!Ive noted your post 4/8 where you quote :

The runway extension will be complete by April 2023 so let’s wait and see if any additional growth materialises thereafter!

​​​​​Its going to.be a long.continued question!!

[stewyb]

I would be very interested to know where you you.get your facts from!Ive noted your post 4/8 where you quote :

The runway extension will be complete by April 2023 so let’s wait and see if any additional growth materialises thereafter!

​​​​​Its going to.be a long.continued question!!

First phase of construction has already started! :ok:

[rog747]

With all due respect Ryanair will never come to SOU with its 737's - I don't know why this seems to come up time and time again - nor will Jet 2 with 737's

Whenever Ryanair expands at BOH there are howls for RYR to come to SOU -
RYR's CEO Mr MOL said himself the runway is no good for his planes.....Extension or no extension.
MOL announced this in aTV debate about 18 months/2 years ago when talking to the Airport's MD

[Rivet Joint]

The nonsense spoken on here never ceases to amaze me. Ever heard of the word context? The comments from FR about not having plans to come to SOU were from someone stood at BOH on a day celebrating new routes there. Do you honestly expect him to come out and say that they have plans to move to BOH’s rival whilst stood at BOH? Think before you speak.

[rog747]

There is no need to be so rude #1131
Rivet Joint - If My post was to much to the point then apologies for the bluntness - but no blunter than your rant

Seasons Greetings to you all.

[ATNotts]

There is no need to be so rude #1131
Rivet Joint - If My post was to much to the point then apologies for the bluntness - but no blunter than your rant

Seasons Greetings to you all.

Well I for one thought your posting was spot on! Some "fans" of some airports on these threads really do appear to lose sight of reality. Airports are, for better or for worse, businesses, not football teams.

[SKOJB]

You can forget about RYR as the likelihood of them coming to SOU is very remote when they have a large and established base down the road. Also their 738 aren’t really the right fit for the airport. Instead the best hope and one which is most likely to happen is for EZY to run further routes with a smattering of TUI etc

[rog747]

You can forget about RYR as the likelihood of them coming to SOU is very remote when they have a large and established base down the road. Also their 738 aren’t really the right fit for the airport. Instead the best hope and one which is most likely to happen is for EZY to run further routes with a smattering of TUI etc

Indeed -
We can also hope that the BACF summer program does not get too decimated either - TUI chartered BACF for a SAT Palma series last summer and also took seats on the 'scheds' too.
They I gather, have planned for Volotea to come back and op for them next summer but that could all change as we have seen the past few years.
TUI have canned both IBZ and MAH in the past that sold well - not sure what they have for 2023 and 2024 planned in full.
They are selling JER holidays flying from SOU ! (That's an old destination to now come back being sold as a package deal)

What with the 'economic' situation we are now all facing one does wonder if Summer Holidays Abroad will still be at the forefront with most customers - Methinks they will.
As for EZY - for some years now their only sustained route and any 'expansion' here in our area (both SOU and BOH) is increasing their winter GVA Ski flights
(People who Ski have money - ask ALL of my NHS Consultants LOL)

The Easyjet BOH Domestic flights only lasted 5 minutes - one short summer season, never to return :(
As for EZY coming to SOU in the next year or so ? - No is IMHO.

[RW20]

The nonsense spoken on here never ceases to amaze me. Ever heard of the word context? The comments from FR about not having plans to come to SOU were from someone stood at BOH on a day celebrating new routes there. Do you honestly expect him to come out and say that they have plans to move to BOH’s rival whilst stood at BOH? Think before you speak.
The only nonsense on here continues to come from you ,with your crass comments.
​​​​​​Its time you came into the real world and realise that BOH will attract the LCCs ,because of its local aged populations,Excellent landing aids,and most important Runway length.
Sou can and will survive on domestic routes,and limited european destinations ,and thats it!

[SKOJB]

The only nonsense on here continues to come from you ,with your crass comments.
​​​​​​Its time you came into the real world and realise that BOH will attract the LCCs ,because of its local aged populations,Excellent landing aids,and most important Runway length.
Sou can and will survive on domestic routes,and limited european destinations ,and thats it!

Limited euro destinations maybe but incorrect, in my opinion, to suggest SOU cannot attract a LCC that shall operate a successful operation to select med/city locations

[rog747]

Limited euro destinations maybe but incorrect, in my opinion, to suggest SOU cannot attract a LCC that shall operate a successful operation to select med/city locations


I do lament too SKOJB,
that SOU is ''late to the Opera'' in attracting larger LCC aircraft and the type of Routes you mention, which I point out, that until recently Southend successfully enjoyed, and had a boom time, (until Ryanair began the push against Easyjet, and then Covid-19 arrived, which sadly saw SEN become the Marie-Celeste of airports, and remains so)

SEN was one example of just the scenario you describe and ''desire'', whereby now carriers perhaps mooting to expand by flying into other airports like SOU will not want to get burnt fingers again.

The BACF operations (summer only and ski flights - all at weekends) has not really been the complete success we hoped for - but not too bad though considering a start up in the middle of Covid-19 during part-recovery stop-start travel rules.

This is only a chat Forum, and debate is always interesting, but often provides an insight into the actual real world.

Best as always.

[gkmeech]

I would be very interested to know where you you.get your facts from!Ive noted your post 4/8 where you quote :

The runway extension will be complete by April 2023 so let’s wait and see if any additional growth materialises thereafter!

​​​​​Its going to.be a long.continued question!!


Work has started to re-route a Southern Water sewage pipe to allow the start of concrete laying for the extension in April 2023. Finish date will be a few months later.

[stewyb]

Work has started to re-route a Southern Water sewage pipe to allow the start of concrete laying for the extension in April 2023. Finish date will be a few months later.

Thanks gkmeech. Runway completion is mid August

[TCAS FAN]

Work has started to re-route a Southern Water sewage pipe to allow the start of concrete laying for the extension in April 2023. Finish date will be a few months later.

Graham
Any indication whether the large gas main running adjacent to the aerodrome boundary is impacted? From memory it's north of what will need to be excavated for the extension, but may impact the access road to the "Navigator Quarter" which, if there is to be any improvement (or no reduction!) to 02 declared distances, the road will need to be put in a cutting to avoid the standard nominal road surface +4.8 metres (ie high sided vehicles allowance) that needs to be added for by way of obstacles on the road.

[Rivet Joint]

There is no need to be so rude #1131
Rivet Joint - If My post was to much to the point then apologies for the bluntness - but no blunter than your rant

Seasons Greetings to you all.

You say that yet the posts following mine have proved my point that some of the posters on the SOU thread don’t think before they speak. They are so quick to post a negative story because for some strange reason they get a kick out of being negative about an inanimate object. Let that sink in. The mods really should be removing trolls with a long history of derailing this thread and antagonising others.

for the 150th time we have the debate of BOH v SOU and whether they can attract a low cost operator. Two simple indisputable facts. One, if you haven’t already realised there is a certain low cost operator with orange planes already operating at SOU. Two, no business on the planet invests in infrastructure without a good business case. In fact, it’s a prerequisite to shareholder approval. As the airport themselves have said it’s hard to survive with the current routes/operators I think it’s safe to say they are aiming to accommodate a low cost operator.

If anyone has a genuine intellectual argument to counteract the above facts or at the very least wants to engage in informed debate then great. We are all entitled to our opinions but if there are posters that continue to cut and paste the same negative comments in the hope it makes other posters experience of this forum less enjoyable then surely it is agreed they have no place on this forum.

The runway works have started. Shouldn’t this be an overwhelmingly positive thread at the moment?

[rog747]

You say that yet the posts following mine have proved my point that some of the posters on the SOU thread don’t think before they speak. They are so quick to post a negative story because for some strange reason they get a kick out of being negative about an inanimate object. Let that sink in. The mods really should be removing trolls with a long history of derailing this thread and antagonising others.

for the 150th time we have the debate of BOH v SOU and whether they can attract a low cost operator. Two simple indisputable facts. One, if you haven’t already realised there is a certain low cost operator with orange planes already operating at SOU. Two, no business on the planet invests in infrastructure without a good business case. In fact, it’s a prerequisite to shareholder approval. As the airport themselves have said it’s hard to survive with the current routes/operators I think it’s safe to say they are aiming to accommodate a low cost operator.

If anyone has a genuine intellectual argument to counteract the above facts or at the very least wants to engage in informed debate then great. We are all entitled to our opinions but if there are posters that continue to cut and paste the same negative comments in the hope it makes other posters experience of this forum less enjoyable then surely it is agreed they have no place on this forum.

The runway works have started. Shouldn’t this be an overwhelmingly positive thread at the moment?

Many thanks for your Post.

I agree that we do already have a LCC in situ at SOU; the ''Orange'' one for some years; but it is only purely seasonal, operates only one single route, and not using a 'based' aircraft but flies in from home base at GVA then back home again (same as BOH)
That is not being negative but purely stating the Obs.

I am sure most debaters on here do want to see a 'based' airline at SOU (such as Flybe once were, and Easyjet/Ryanair who were once both at SEN)

We will have to wait and see...
So many parameters occurring in the Mix- the Economy, the Runway work, and staff levels at SOU etc.

[SKOJB]

Many thanks for your Post.

I agree that we do already have a LCC in situ at SOU; the ''Orange'' one for some years; but it is only purely seasonal, operates only one single route, and not using a 'based' aircraft but flies in from home base at GVA then back home again (same as BOH)
That is not being negative but purely stating the Obs.

I am sure most debaters on here do want to see a 'based' airline at SOU (such as Flybe once were, and Easyjet/Ryanair who were once both at SEN)

We will have to wait and see...
So many parameters occurring in the Mix- the Economy, the Runway work, and staff levels at SOU etc.

In my humble opinion Rog747, the airport might initially try and secure some EZY non based routes with the likes of PMI, AGP, FAO, BOD, EDI, BFS, CDG etc. The market is clearly there for Med flights (BE did well on these) and regional France with 2nd homes in the Dordogne. Loganair seem very expensive on EDI and Eastern won’t last on BFS so the Orange brigade may give these a try. As you say many parameters in play but I wouldn’t rule it out completely!

[RW20]

SKOJB
The next couple of years are going to be challenging for all,especially airports. I question "The market is clearly there for Med flights (BE did well on these" as BA Southampton operation have been cutting many of there start up.med flights this year and 2023) including Ibiza!, clearly demand isnt there.There is stiff competition from BOU just down the road..As for French second homes,again there seems little progress and light demand.
The runway extension gives existing airlines the prospect of unrestricted loads in hot conditions.Easy and others will only come to airports like SOU when demand outstrips capacity at there core London bases,the demand will take some time to build,SEN has been vacated by LCCs because of contracted demand.

​​

[Buster the Bear]

According to FR24 G-POWT Airbus A321 of Titan Airways operating the Loganair flight this evening to Glasgow. Now airborne at 1657.

[willy wombat]

Presumably to clear backlog as believe GLA was closed due snow earlier.

[Wycombe]

According to FR24 G-POWT Airbus A321 of Titan Airways operating the Loganair flight this evening to Glasgow. Now airborne at 1657.
It did a round-trip back down to SOU before positioning back to STN.

I believe this is the first 321Neo to visit SOU

[TCAS FAN]

It did a round-trip back down to SOU before positioning back to STN.

I believe this is the first 321Neo to visit SOU

I too believe that is the case, out of interest how many PAX northbound?

[rog747]

It did a round-trip back down to SOU before positioning back to STN.

I believe this is the first 321Neo to visit SOU

photo here of the landing (https://cdn.jetphotos.com/full/5/67403_1671205147.jpg)

[Rivet Joint]

According to FR24 G-POWT Airbus A321 of Titan Airways operating the Loganair flight this evening to Glasgow. Now airborne at 1657.

Bet this will disappoint a few on here. Shows aircraft even of that size can get in and out with some kind of load. The extension will only help with that. Great little bonus for SOU to have this happen by chance.

[Pain in the R's]

I can remember reading here how a very successful Southend was being compared with Southampton, which was just plodding along. That success was put down to the runway extension transforming the Essex outpost.

No one compares Southampton to Southend now. I wonder why.

[Sotonsean]

Bet this will disappoint a few on here. Shows aircraft even of that size can get in and out with some kind of load. The extension will only help with that. Great little bonus for SOU to have this happen by chance.

A Livingston Airlines A321 EI-LVD previously called at Southampton on the 26 November 2008.

The aircraft was carrying Milan FC to play against Portsmouth FC.

The aircraft night stopped and was parked on stand 14 tail first.

I'm not aware of any other A321s visiting Southampton Airport.

Does anyone know what stand the aircraft in question used?

[Wycombe]

I'm not aware of any other A321s visiting Southampton Airport.

A Small Planet one visited on a Santa Flight some years back - I forget exactly when but was at the airport when it departed

[rog747]

Quote
''Bet this will disappoint a few on here. Shows aircraft even of that size can get in and out with some kind of load. The extension will only help with that. Great little bonus for SOU to have this happen by chance''

Indeed - This week's visit by the brand new Titan A321Neo was rather snazzy -
It would have been rather handy to have asked the Titan crew to put CFU or TFS into their Computers and get the 'sums' for a SOU departure, using the current runways.

However we all know these flights were for a short Domestic sector to/from GLA; likely not with many Hold Bags as a lot of folk would be on Business,
and Def not much Fuel.
Thus a short hop to GLA or EDI is no issue for this type in/out of SOU with the current runway.
But were they actually 'full' with up to 214 pax >? (Titan's config on its new G-POWT)

Commercially though, until the runway is extended, economical loads with larger aircraft to some further afield Leisure airports cannot operate as we all know.
Palma was about the best you could get (Volotea) up to now.
Spanair used the A320 out of SOU for TFS but had to tech stop at Nantes.
The MD-83 was also used by a couple of airlines - I recall that went to Palma.

EasyJet still use the A319 and A320ceo on the SOU-GVA flights which have on occasion, had to suffer payload restrictions (A number of reasons - MEL, Weather at Destination Etc)
This is a just an 80-90 minute sector, and will usually operate Full with 156/186 pax, plus the Bags/Skis/Boots.
AFAIK their A320Neo has not been into SOU.

Once the runway work is finished, these 'new' flights (if we attract them) will need to make money; they would need to operate Full; + will have a full load of Bags.
Even with the 'nominal' Extension though, I do not foresee IMO destinations flown much beyond Faro or Malaga without perhaps still incurring a load penalty.

In the past, as mentioned, there have been several 737-800 and A321 flights in and out of SOU - all of these have been 'specials' often with no bags, on short routes, or for cruise ships, and/or a football team etc.

Flybe as we know, flew to quite a number of leisure destinations from SOU but they were using a 78 or a 118 seater aircraft -
It will be quite a jump in capacity to suddenly expect LCC or Charter carriers to fill a 186/214/235 seater aircraft.

Again, not a Negative dig here, but merely stating what the future thinking of any prospectus will be.

[RW20]

rog747
Good assessment of post runway extension future for the airport. Unfortunately certain contributors on this forum get carried away with the prospect of a few hundred extra feet of concrete.As stated before demand will not be forthcoming for some time for any LCC to dip there toe in a SOU operation,and if/when this does happen the extension will provide operations of full loads to currant destinations ,i.e. Palma,Malaga etc by A320 types in challenging weather conditions.

[ItsonlyMeagain]

Larger aircraft have been there in the past. Operated a 757 there a good few years ago. However, having also flown the 321, the former does stop rather better.

Performance can be easily calculated, but having stood in a cluster at the gates here for a Q400, it is the terminal that would be the issue.

Me

[Wycombe]

AFAIK their A320Neo has not been into SOU

The SOU FB Group reports that a few did visit during the last Winter season

The Titan 321Neo that visited this week is in a "VIP" fit with 2+2 seating although I'm not sure of the capacity (Titan have various configs available). Its the same aircraft that was used to bring the England footy team back from Doha.

[fjencl]

I bet the Titan 321Neo that visited this week with 2+2 seating wasn't a cheap option for loganair.
However needs must I guess.

[TCAS FAN]

I too believe that is the case, out of interest how many PAX northbound?

Accept that other 321s have operated, remember one parked on Stand 14. Was not the the question whether it was the first 321neo?

[SKOJB]

NCL with Loganair goes x 18 weekly from May with Aberdeen returning x 6 weekly via NCL. SeanM1997

[Wycombe]

Accept that other 321s have operated, remember one parked on Stand 14. Was not the the question whether it was the first 321neo?
Yes it was, as answered above (well, at least me and one other think so :))

[darren1]

Oh dear just 2 months of BA cityflyer operations next summer.

[Flitefone]

Oh dear just 2 months of BA cityflyer operations next summer.

https://twitter.com/seanm1997/status/1604874877185404930?s=46&t=rnVvExZ8aKUpoOFhQ35xrw

[Jn14:6]

Where is that from? Booking engine still showing flights from May through until October.

[TCAS FAN]

https://twitter.com/seanm1997/status/1604874877185404930?s=46&t=rnVvExZ8aKUpoOFhQ35xrw

Echoing post 1165, SOU/PMI bookable WEF 14 May.

[Pain in the R's]

After I spent over £90 for a week’s energy maybe it is finally dawning on the airlines that 2023 will mark the big reset for aviation. You just need to go to the pub to see people cutting back on expenditure by not venturing out. Southampton will not be immune to a recession despite its plans and the big talk here.

[willy wombat]

After I spent over £90 for a week’s energy maybe it is finally dawning on the airlines that 2023 will mark the big reset for aviation. You just need to go to the pub to see people cutting back on expenditure by not venturing out. Southampton will not be immune to a recession despite its plans and the big talk here.
We shall see. Currently S23 holiday bookings in general doing very well. A lot of people still have pandemic savings and equally many people will cut back in other areas before cutting their summer holiday.

[darren1]

Disappointing SOU can't sustain a decent summer schedule with BA. Is the runway extension really going to yield much success? Can't see U2 wanting to invest much in W patterns at this rate.

[RW20]

Disappointing SOU can't sustain a decent summer schedule with BA. Is the runway extension really going to yield much success? Can't see U2 wanting to invest much in W patterns at this rate.
​​​​​​Indeed, pax numbers are not great,latest CAA shows airport October figures similar to Guernsey CI ,the BA flights was a great chance to promote European Sun routes from the airport,I dont think they were advertised well.Its going to.take some time,and good promotion to get the airport back on the Sun routes (post runway extension ) considering that just down the road Bournemouth is expanding its destinations,and having healthy pax numbers.
​

[SKOJB]

​​​​​​Indeed, pax numbers are not great,latest CAA shows airport October figures similar to Guernsey CI ,the BA flights was a great chance to promote European Sun routes from the airport,I dont think they were advertised well.Its going to.take some time,and good promotion to get the airport back on the Sun routes (post runway extension ) considering that just down the road Bournemouth is expanding its destinations,and having healthy pax numbers.
​

in which case I suggest you stick to the BOH page and continue blowing sun up their rear end as you never have one thing good to say about SOU!

[darren1]

Not really any positives here. SOU had a great chance to have a decent weekend sun network, but it has been a dismal failure.

[Sotonsean]

in which case I suggest you stick to the BOH page and continue blowing sun up their rear end as you never have one thing good to say about SOU!

It's times like this when there should be a like button in the comments section. It's about time someone called him or her out as I find their posts sooooo annoying. It's like reading the same thing over and over again from someone with a "split personality".

[rog747]

BACF summer 2023 Routes do sadly seem to be culled back substantially, down from the original 11/12 routes planned back in 2020.

We now see no IBZ or JMK -
BER NCE and FLR never ever started.
SOU website 'destinations' page has removed all of these, but BA has not yet.

Only a handful of the sunshine leisure routes are still showing from SOU.
We still seem to have a couple of destinations to rural France, plus AGP PMI ALC FAO.

PMI still has the 3 flights over the weekend, plus the BA TUI SAT PMI charter, and now an extra BA TUES TUI Charter flight...(So no Volotea)

There is of course BACF weekend flights to DUB and EDI buT I won't be packing my bucket and spade for those, although they are handy for some OF US.

[SotonFlightpath]

Living close to SOU I'm definitely a hugely enthusiastic supporter of the airport and use it whenever I can. However, to mind the biggest issue has always been one of communication. So often when talking to fiends and neighbours they have absolutely no idea that it is/has been possible to travel to so many destinations and they continue view Southampton as 'that little airport in Eastleigh from where you can fly to the channel islands, and may be up north perhaps?'
I'm sure things will turn around, but almost everyone I know who's not a follower of aviation has no idea that it's been possible to fly to some wonderful destinations with BA or jet off to the slopes with EasyJet. If and when a low-cost operator arrives, and being positive I'm sure it will happen, the airport needs to blitz the local area - billboards, bus advertising, dozens of vinyl-wrapped taxis, local radio and tv, local press etc. Relying on Facebook/Twitter as previously won't bring the results.

[rog747]

Also living close to SOU Airport I too try and use it as much as I can.
Just managed to change my KLM NBO-AMS-LCY next March, to NBO-AMS-SOU with a great early morning connection at AMS; my sister will still go to LCY as she lives not far.
Seems the morning KLM AMS SOU flight was reinstated, but no one knows unless you dig deep.

Truth is some (quite a lot) of Travel Agents and Locals alike may/do not know what the airport offers and also that British Airways runs a relatively large number of weekend routes out of Southampton Airport, and that with KLM operating AMS twice a day this offers excellent Interline opportunities at AMS.

Yesterday, Travel News Headline ----
British Airways axes more Southampton flights for Summer 2023 – what’s left?
For the second time in recent months, British Airways has taken an axe to its flying schedule out of Southampton Airport.
The launch of these services got caught up in the Pandemic (the original announcement was made in December 2020) so they have never had much of a promotional push.
The BA services were a welcome respite for the Airport which had lost virtually all of its scheduled services at that point.
The initial route launches though were, in many cases, heavily delayed or suspended altogether.

There is – or there was – a full service planned for Summer 2023. But, back in October, three BA routes from Southampton were cancelled for Summer 2023.
The cancelled routes are:
Berlin (already removed)
Florence
Ibiza
Nice
To this list you can now add:
Mykonos --- But don’t panic – If you search SOU to JMK on ba.com, you are offered SOU to GLA (Loganair) then to LGW, then cross to LHR, then finally to Mykonos, a trip taking almost 20 hours !
Erm, I think not...
Well that's my Greek Holiday plans from my local airport for next summer messed up.

So the BA Summer 2023 routes are now running from :

Faro – 29th April
Malaga – 30th April
Bergerac – 13th May
Palma – 13th May
Edinburgh – 14th May
Alicante – 15th July
Limoges – 15th July
Dublin – 16th July

This Winter's 2022/2023 routes end as follows:
Chambery (ends 16th April)
Edinburgh (ends 16th April)
Salzburg (ends 15th April

Many Locals and even Londoners have probably never flown from Southampton.
It is, however, surprisingly easy and a joy to behold.
You can get a direct train from London Waterloo or Clapham, Woking, Reading, Basingstoke to Southampton Airport Parkway station, and coming from Salisbury and Dorset too.
You will be in the small terminal building within a couple of minutes.
Or, it is 2 minutes drive off the M27 and Car Parking is excellent, with a few minutes walk to the Terminal.

Is there a Lounge?
Yes. The Spitfire Lounge at Southampton Airport.

Is there Business Class?
Yes, Business Class is available on both BA and KLM.
As these are on Embraer aircraft with 2×2 seating, however, there is no ’empty middle seat’ benefit. But seats are wide and legroom is generous.
BA serve Hot Meals.
You would get access to the Spitfire Lounge.

Am I doing SOU's PR here?.....lol

[SKOJB]

Thanks Rog747 for the detail on BA’s S23 ops. The airport is a great asset what with the road/rail network being so close although a little more promo wouldn’t go amiss. It seems BACF are once again spreading their weekend aircraft around the U.K. regionals for some charter work so this may be a reason for the reduced schedule from SOU. In any case, I don’t see BA in it for the long term once the extension is complete and other airlines maybe take on some summer/winter sun flying!

[Jn14:6]

I think some of the problem with JMK was that it was outbound on Sunday and return on Saturday, meaning that you couldn't book a one or two-week vacation.

I use BA to FAO and PMI and it is a refreshingly pleasant experience!

[rog747]

BA's Palma is doing well - for 2023 --- 3 weekly on SA/SU and 2 more weekly via the TUI charters on TU/SA.
A couple of these also do W round trips from Palma to Jersey (and IIRC also to Guernsey) and back for a local Tour Operator on the Channel Islands.

No Winter Sun on the Horizon - only the SKI slopes...

As for Mykonos out on a SUN, and back on a SAT - worked OK for us twice last year - we did 13 nights and a 20 nights.
There were no Tour Operators on that flight, so everyone was Independent, thus 6 or 13 nights was not really an issue, although some folk would be put off.
Some of the other routes too were also out SUN, back SAT -
This is due to LCY's weekend opening hours and facilitating getting the Aircraft back to base on a SUN, without the need for an empty positioning flight.

[SKOJB]

Interesting to note that in the airports latest Section106, it states that no planning is required for a northern taxiway from stand 14 to runway. Shouldn’t the airport be adding this small piece of infrastructure whilst machinery is on site for runway works?

[Jamesair1]

Rog747

I could swear that I read the word 'TRAIN' in respect of travelling to Southampton Airport..........mmmmm thats assuming there is still a railway in operation by then....

[SouthernAlliance]

Interesting to note that in the airports latest Section106, it states that no planning is required for a northern taxiway from stand 14 to runway. Shouldn’t the airport be adding this small piece of infrastructure whilst machinery is on site for runway works?

That would be eminently sensible and worth doing, however it’s been discussed for god knows how many years so doubt it will get done

[rog747]

Rog747

I could swear that I read the word 'TRAIN' in respect of travelling to Southampton Airport..........mmm that's assuming there is still a railway in operation by then....

Yes quite - very witty.
Seriously, when this Country gets back to a degree of normality and the trains run properly again, (as with everything else that's currently falling apart)
then of course getting to SOU Airport by train is the best choice for many passengers.

Season's Greetings all.....

[stewyb]

Yes quite - very witty.
Seriously, when this Country gets back to a degree of normality and the trains run properly again, (as with everything else that's currently falling apart)
then of course getting to SOU Airport by train is the best choice for many passengers.

Season's Greetings all.....

Seasons greetings to you and all. A big year for the airport in 2023 with the runway completion and hopefully some new airlines/destinations!

[RW20]

Seasons greetings to you and all. A big year for the airport in 2023 with the runway completion and hopefully some new airlines/destinations!
Yes a big year for the airport,lets hope the runway extension brings in the required destinations the airport needs to get back in the black.

[SouthernAlliance]

What can be expected of the airport in 2023 and after the extension is complete? Would be interested to hear thoughts on any possible developments

[Rivet Joint]

Eastern’s performance over the Christmas break has been terrible. Basically all flights cancelled. If you want to go to Manchester you can forget it. I flew with them recently and the crew were great but whoever runs it is a total clown. Would be ideal if Flybe could just operate the Manchester route and nothing else. When they have enough planes of course!

[SouthernAlliance]

Interested in your thoughts as to who will be the first airline to announce some added routes from the airport once the extension is complete?

[BA318]

Interested in your thoughts as to who will be the first airline to announce some added routes from the airport once the extension is complete?

with Lufthansa’s recent expansion they wouldn’t surprise me. A CRJ900 to Munich or Frankfurt a couple of times a week like at Belfast.

[Albert Hall]

I'm not sure even with the runway extension that a CRJ900 will be workable at SOU. They are modern-day ground grippers and I would be surprised if they can operate BHD-FRA without limitations. Demand for the service = quite possibly.

[Sotonsean]

I'm not sure even with the runway extension that a CRJ900 will be workable at SOU. They are modern-day ground grippers and I would be surprised if they can operate BHD-FRA without limitations. Demand for the service = quite possibly.

Lufthansa are intended on using an Embraer 190 on FRA-BHD for their four weekly flights starting on the 23 April 2023.

Lufthansa in my opinion will at some point announce a SOU connection from either FRA or MUN. With the airlines focus now being based around FRA I should imagine that will be the destination Lufthansa will announce. With Lufthansa starting BHD and LGW this year I can't see any announcement from the airline for any further expansion in the UK until at least the autumn.

Lufthansa to FRA and a possible resumption of CDG with Air France would be great additions to SOU.

I personally would also love to see Vueling have another attempt at a BCN connection.

[SKOJB]

BCN if anything will most likely come from an away based EZY along with PMI/AGP/FAO. Reckon TUI might also add some further routes in addition to their larger BOH offering. Volotea could also be one to watch for a comeback!

[Sotonsean]

BCN if anything will most likely come from an away based EZY along with PMI/AGP/FAO. Reckon TUI might also add some further routes in addition to their larger BOH offering. Volotea could also be one to watch for a comeback!

I totally avoided using the 'orange word' for obvious reasons!

Unless TUI sub charter other aircraft the Boeing 737 fleet as far as I am aware won't be capable at Southampton even with the short runway extension.

I can imagine Volotea operating on behalf of TUI again but I can't foresee them resuming scheduled operations to Southampton.

[rog747]

I totally avoided using the 'orange word' for obvious reasons!
Unless TUI sub charter other aircraft the Boeing 737 fleet as far as I am aware won't be capable at Southampton even with the short runway extension.
I can imagine Volotea operating on behalf of TUI again but I can't foresee them resuming scheduled operations to Southampton.

TUI dropped their Volotea charters some years ago for both Palma and Ibiza.
TUI were using Flybe for Mahon Menorca (but only buying in seats).
In the more distant past Air Europa 737-300 and -400 was the main Thomsons/TUI chartered airline at SOU and at EXT.
Those aircraft types are long gone, and TUI's own 737NG's will not be able to haul 189 pax in, or out of SOU.

TUI now feature only Palma for package holidays for the past few years, and in 2022 they switched to a BACF EMB 190 98 seat whole charter on a SAT,
and for 2023 they are chartering them again for 2 whole charter flights a week on TUE and again on the SAT.
TUI also take extra seats on the 'scheduled' BACF Palma's which run on a SAT and SUN.
So it seems a 100 seat aircraft works well for them.

As you know BACF have now dropped their IBZ route for 2023, and TUI have not featured any holidays going there for some years now.

I do not think TUI will venture up to larger aircraft anytime soon (such as Volotea again, which is a big jump to a minimum of 156 seats), nor it seems to expand more destinations from SOU, although IMHO it was a huge missed opportunity for both TUI and BACF, when BA first began in 2021 with PMI AGP ALC FAO and IBZ.
TUI would not have gone back to Mykonos -
TUI dropped this island some years ago due to the high cost of accomodation there.

If 2023 at SOU for BACF does not bode that well again, then for summer 2024 will they come back >?

If that is the case then I will be interested whether TUI Holidays would remain at SOU, and only then they (TUI) may think the demand for again using a Spanish charter airline is still there. It would have to be an A319/A320 airline.

[SouthernAlliance]

Re post 1193 and also me being new to this forum, why can EZY not be mentioned? I think they are the most likely of any airline to test a few routes from SOU

[rog747]

Re post 1193 and me being new to this forum, why can EZY not be mentioned? I think they are the most likely of any airline to test a few routes from SOU

Hi there and welcome to the SOU airport thread - There is also a Bournemouth BOH and an Exeter EXT one too (local airports to Hants and Dorset)

EasyJet has been operating for some winters now from/to Geneva (GVA) to both SOU and BOH purely for the winter Ski holiday market, and mainly flying just at weekends, although some extra weekday flights were added to allow ''long weekends'' away to Ski.
A short season from just before Xmas to March, or maybe to Easter.
This is not a SOU based Easyjet Airbus but the flights come in from, and go back to the GVA base (same for GVA-BOH-GVA)

British Airways CityFlyer also do weekend winter Ski flights from SOU to Salzburg and Chambery.
These BA aircraft base themselves at SOU over the weekend and fly to/from the Ski airports and back to other UK airports on a W basis during the day.
Inghams Holidays and Crystal Ski both offer package holidays on these flights.

Easyjet have not as yet, made any inroads to expand at SOU (as they did at SEN Southend and based up to 7 planes there at one time --- until the bubble burst).
Watch this space as they say -
EasyJet have given up on SEN, but do of course have a huge presence at bases at Gatwick and now Bristol.
However they have just returned flying into SEN with 2023 summer only flights from/to Palma Malaga and Faro.

If they were ever to expand routes to/from SOU then they likely would be from their foreign bases.
They will not likely expand again at BOH due to Ryanair's increasing hold there.

[stewyb]

As an example, using non based EZY could generate 350k-400k pax annually with weekly departures seasonal/year round to BFS(4), EDI(4), AGP(5), PMI(3), FAO(2), BOD(2), CDG(4), GVA(5). In order for the airport to initially hit their financial break even of 1.1m pax, this would be a decent start and very doable!

[SWBKCB]

As an example, using non based EZY could generate 350k-400k pax annually with weekly departures seasonal/year round to BFS(4), EDI(4), AGP(5), PMI(3), FAO(2), BOD(2), CDG(4), GVA(5). In order for the airport to initially hit their financial break even of 1.1m, this would be a decent start and very doable!

Are there any examples where EZY operate this level of non-based flying?

[inOban]

How many pax do EZY bring through BHX? No based aircraft but an increasing number of routes.

[ATNotts]

Are there any examples where EZY operate this level of non-based flying?
BHX is the obvious example in UK but in terms of daily departures on a much larger scale - 3/4 services per day on BFS alone with no based aircraft.

[RW20]

Are there any examples where EZY operate this level of non-based flying?
Their has been a lot of hopeful talk about post runway extension destinations and especially EZY operations.The reality however is that 2023/24 is going to be tough for Southampton, the extended runway only allows for sustainable payloads to limited destinations in the Med,and with limited types i.e. Airbus 320but significantly not present Boing aircraft types i.e 737-800,a staple airline plane!.
Before the Pandamic and current financial crisis Southampton would have boomed with the extentsion,but it is a different ball game now.
Its going to be an interesting next couple of years,SOU needs to increase revenue by extra pax etc to break even,lets hope it achieves this.

[stewyb]

Are there any examples where EZY operate this level of non-based flying?

BHX springs to mind immediately and believe my example is the most realistic option at this present time whereby a LCC is not committing to a base and SOU can deliver growth. Let’s hope something happens!

[OltonPete]

How many pax do EZY bring through BHX? No based aircraft but an increasing number of routes.

I haven't got a passenger figure for easyjet at BHX as some of the routes are shared and to calculate the seats would take a while as it is a very fluid schedule depending the time of year with some seasonal routes starting in June/July and some routes reducing in peak summer such as Amsterdam.

To give you an idea the first week in April sees 74 flights per week over 6 destinations with a maximum of 13 flights (Friday) and minimum 9 (Saturday) with one a two variations until the last week in June when their are 10 routes but then a dip in peak season to 65 flights per week as Amsterdam drops from 14 per week to 4 but Nantes starts making 11 routes in total but all that changes in September with 78 flights per week and back to 10 routes (15 flights on a Monday).

Obviously Southampton would never get 5 Belfast a day (not even sure if BHX will as things change regularly) but the destinations are Amsterdam, Belfast Int, Edinburgh, Faro, Geneva, Glasgow, Lisbon, Milan MXP, Nantes & Palma. Malaga remains in the APP but not in the main website but gives you idea what can be achieved without a base.

Pete

[stewyb]

I haven't got a passenger figure for easyjet at BHX as some of the routes are shared and to calculate the seats would take a while as it is a very fluid schedule depending the time of year with some seasonal routes starting in June/July and some routes reducing in peak summer such as Amsterdam.

To give you an idea the first week in April sees 74 flights per week over 6 destinations with a maximum of 13 flights (Friday) and minimum 9 (Saturday) with one a two variations until the last week in June when their are 10 routes but then a dip in peak season to 65 flights per week as Amsterdam drops from 14 per week to 4 but Nantes starts making 11 routes in total but all that changes in September with 78 flights per week and back to 10 routes (15 flights on a Monday).

Obviously Southampton would never get 5 Belfast a day (not even sure if BHX will as things change regularly) but the destinations are Amsterdam, Belfast Int, Edinburgh, Faro, Geneva, Glasgow, Lisbon, Milan MXP, Nantes & Palma. Malaga remains in the APP but not in the main website but gives you idea what can be achieved without a base.

Pete

Interesting thanks Pete, think this model would work well for SOU in order to attract a LCC without a base expense/commitment whilst developing the growth plans projected for the airport

[rog747]

Flybe announced summer 2023 yesterday, but SOU didn't get a mention :(

Only 2023 route seems to be BHD Belfast City just once daily at lunchtimes - (Not operating until 22 February 2023)

Toulon and Avignon flown last summer are not listed as flying (yet >? Fly Maybe lol)

[stewyb]

Flybe announced summer 2023 yesterday, but SOU didn't get a mention :(

Only 2023 route seems to be BHD Belfast City just once daily at lunchtimes - (Not operating until 22 February 2023)

Toulon and Avignon flown last summer are not listed as flying (yet >? Fly Maybe lol)

Not a big loss to the airport and instead dodged a bullet!

[Pain in the R's]

Maybe the airline knows SOU would be a loss making airport for them otherwise they would be keen to return.

[SotonFlightpath]

Maybe the airline knows SOU would be a loss making airport for them otherwise they would be keen to return.

The potential market now for the 'new flybe' is very different to that experienced by the 'old flybe' a few years ago. General out and back in the day business travel has reduced significantly as so many people are now working from home and use zoom etc. For many colleagues, it's no longer a realistic option to meet-up as without an office base, it would entail meeting other colleagues at their homes - not something everyone would want.

Where such business still exists, this is now ell catered for by other operators. Having this distributed amongst Aer Lingus Regional, Loganair, Blues Islands, Aurigney, Eastern and KLM is a much healthier situation for SOU than the 'all the eggs in one basket' situation with the original flybe of a few years. I'm sure flybe will keep the situation under review, but at a small airport like Southampton there is only a certain amount of business to be had and this is being well-served (albeit with high fares) at the moment. I think when the economy improves the present operators, and maybe flybe too, will introduce a few new routes and increased frequencies to existing destinations. I think the runway extension will bring results too, probably not with a based operator to start with, but I would be very surprised if we don't see I nice small portfolio of leisure/city break routes developing over the next few years, using aircraft from other bases. I still think the longer-term for SOU is bright!

[Rivet Joint]

Flybe announced summer 2023 yesterday, but SOU didn't get a mention :(

Only 2023 route seems to be BHD Belfast City just once daily at lunchtimes - (Not operating until 22 February 2023)

Toulon and Avignon flown last summer are not listed as flying (yet >? Fly Maybe lol)

Their obsession with BHD is very very odd considering Emerald with the backing of Aer Lingus are already established. The domestic routes at SOU should have been one of their main focuses with the awful Eastern and uneconomical jets being flown by Logan. Flybe are still missed by a lot of people locally but I echo what another poster has said that them returning would be counter productive for SOU. Maybe SOU have been giving them the hard shoulder. Let’s all wait and see when the runway is done. Anyone know the progress with the works?

[USERNAME_]

I’m struggling to find any actual timeline for the runway extension. Maybe I’m blind, but is there an expected date for works to be finished other than “2023”?

[stewyb]

I’m struggling to find any actual timeline for the runway extension. Maybe I’m blind, but is there an expected date for works to be finished other than “2023”?

Groundworks have been on going during December to relocate a sewage pipe. Prep starting very shortly on actual extension with first spades in the ground at the start of April and runway to be complete by mid August

[Rivet Joint]

Groundworks have been on going during December to relocate a sewage pipe. Prep starting very shortly on actual extension with first spades in the ground at the start of April and runway to be complete by mid August

sounds promising. Any idea if they are going to put in the northern taxi link at the same time? Would make sense surely whilst the equipment is there.

[stewyb]

sounds promising. Any idea if they are going to put in the northern taxi link at the same time? Would make sense surely whilst the equipment is there.

not that I am aware of although stands 1-5 being reconfigured to x 4 A320 size

[TCAS FAN]

I’m struggling to find any actual timeline for the runway extension. Maybe I’m blind, but is there an expected date for works to be finished other than “2023”?

The serious construction work has to be "notified" (to use the legal term) via a NOTAM or AIP Supplement. As the project will apparently exceed the maximum life span of a NOTAM (three months) and the extent of impact on continued runway operation, the most likely way will be an AIP Supplement (my post 1015 refers).

Supplements are published on a 28 day (AIRAC) cycle. The current batch of Supplements are effective today (12 January), with no mention of runway works. Next batch of Supplements effective 23 Feb and should on the AIS website

https://nats-uk.ead-it.com/cms-nats/opencms/en/Publications/aip-supplements/

about a week before. If there is to be a 1 April start on serious construction work either 23 Feb or 23 March should contain a relevant Supplement. That said, I doubt that AGS will miss the PR opportunity to hail the pending start of work. As mentioned in a previous post of mine, would be a nice touch, to show that there are no continued bad feelings, for the Bournemouth Airport Director to be invited to symbolically break the first ground!

[Asturias56]

he wouldn't come - he'd suspect he was inked in for a pagan sacrifice..................

[brian_dromey]

Their obsession with BHD is very very odd considering Emerald with the backing of Aer Lingus are already established. The domestic routes at SOU should have been one of their main focuses with the awful Eastern and uneconomical jets being flown by Logan.

I imagine their research/market intelligence/etc suggested that BHD/Belfast has more potential than many other airports. There is less competition from road/rail from Belfast and for day trips/overnight stays a road/rail/sail combination is thoroughly impractical. From that point of view it makes sense. I don't think flyBe banked on Emerald getting their launch together a year early, getting a UK AOC and building a reliable operation as quickly as they did. The continued operation of many of the Stobart Routes by EI mainline and BA CityFlyer probably helped Emerald and closed off opportunity for flyBe 2 as well. Now, Im not sure how much market research they really did. The route network is visibly incoherent and operationally fragile. Why fight at AMS with easyJet, KLM and BA?

flyBe were never afraid to throw good money after bad in Pyrrhic battles. They shot themselves in the foot with poor timings, lower frequency than Emerald and much worse reliability.

[Rivet Joint]

not that I am aware of although stands 1-5 being reconfigured to x 4 A320 size

Interesting! All shaping up well for the move to bigger aircraft. Hopefully the taxiway will appear as I feel it would be a big oversight if not. Backtracking already adds a few minutes to departures so with the longer runway it’s going to be even more of a hindrance.

[Rivet Joint]

I imagine their research/market intelligence/etc suggested that BHD/Belfast has more potential than many other airports. There is less competition from road/rail from Belfast and for day trips/overnight stays a road/rail/sail combination is thoroughly impractical. From that point of view it makes sense. I don't think flyBe banked on Emerald getting their launch together a year early, getting a UK AOC and building a reliable operation as quickly as they did. The continued operation of many of the Stobart Routes by EI mainline and BA CityFlyer probably helped Emerald and closed off opportunity for flyBe 2 as well. Now, Im not sure how much market research they really did. The route network is visibly incoherent and operationally fragile. Why fight at AMS with easyJet, KLM and BA?

flyBe were never afraid to throw good money after bad in Pyrrhic battles. They shot themselves in the foot with poor timings, lower frequency than Emerald and much worse reliability.

You would like to think they did their research but the old BE was focused on aggressive tactics against opposition so perhaps they just don’t learn their lesson. The move into jets and the disaster that was the battle in the highlands against LM springs to mind. It’s odd as they very much have a place in the industry and should focus on their own business rather than going on the attack. They won’t win against Emerald at Belfast and certainly not at Heathrow against BA/KLM.

[TCAS FAN]

Interesting! All shaping up well for the move to bigger aircraft. Hopefully the taxiway will appear as I feel it would be a big oversight if not. Backtracking already adds a few minutes to departures so with the longer runway it’s going to be even more of a hindrance.

Agree totally, as mentioned in an earlier post of mine, backtracking from TWY B could be a PIA. With another 164 metres added if SOU gets back to previous traffic levels runway capacity will significantly drop either by a need for increased gaps between successive arrivals to accommodate backtracks, or the log jam at Hold B1 preventing pushbacks from multiple adjacent Stands. Are we going to see a repeat of the previous missed opportunity (when runway was resurfaced) to add the TWY A missing link at the northern end?

[SKOJB]

Agree totally, as mentioned in an earlier post of mine, backtracking from TWY B could be a PIA. With another 164 metres added if SOU gets back to previous traffic levels runway capacity will significantly drop either by a need for increased gaps between successive arrivals to accommodate backtracks, or the log jam at Hold B1 preventing pushbacks from multiple adjacent Stands. Are we going to see a repeat of the previous missed opportunity (when runway was resurfaced) to add the TWY A missing link at the northern end?

As I mentioned previous, it seems from the latest S106 that no additional planning is required for this taxiway and therefore it would surely be remiss not to add a bit more tarmac out from stand 14 to runway with equipment already being on site

[TCAS FAN]

As I mentioned previous, it seems from the latest S106 that no additional planning is required for this taxiway and therefore it would surely be remiss not to add a bit more tarmac out from stand 14 to runway with equipment already being on site

With the possible exception of the Permitted Development Rights that you mention, exactly the scenario when the runway was being re-surfaced - the last missed opportunity. An informal chat with the then on-site contractor indicated that with everything in place, including the on-site asphalt production plant, the cost at that time - circa £40K!

[willy wombat]

I find it impossible to believe that you could build that taxiway (even then) for circa £40k. Are you sure that that wasn’t just for the asphalt topping and excluded the substantial foundation necessary to achieve an appropriate LCN?

[TCAS FAN]

I find it impossible to believe that you could build that taxiway (even then) for circa £40k. Are you sure that that wasn’t just for the asphalt topping and excluded the substantial foundation necessary to achieve an appropriate LCN?

Was 25+ years ago for a small strip of taxiway approximately 135 x 18 metres. Not designed for "heavy" ops, only needed PCN35, LCN long past into history . Got it first hand from one of their civil engineers, price was construction cost without lighting.

[SWBKCB]

I've just been quoted over a grand for a few potholes in my drive! :{

[SouthernAlliance]

I find it impossible to believe that you could build that taxiway (even then) for circa £40k. Are you sure that that wasn’t just for the asphalt topping and excluded the substantial foundation necessary to achieve an appropriate LCN?

PCN35 already on taxiway A/B so same load bearing I assume would be used for taxiway C

[TCAS FAN]

PCN35 already on taxiway A/B so same load bearing I assume would be used for taxiway C

That was our plan for the abortive attempt at what would have been an extended TWY A. With 400+ metres lopped of the 20 backtrack with an extended TWY A, life would have been so much simpler for both 20 & 02 ops, the added bonus being a frequent ability for many 02 arrivals to vacate without needing a backtrack

[SouthernAlliance]

That was our plan for the abortive attempt at what would have been an extended TWY A. With 400+ metres lopped of the 20 backtrack with an extended TWY A, life would have been so much simpler for both 20 & 02 ops, the added bonus being a frequent ability for many 02 arrivals to vacate without needing a backtrack

fuel farm now stopping any TWY A extension northwards so only option is to go out from stand 14. Even this would reduce backtrack on 20 and also enable most 02 arrivals to vacate runway without need to backtrack to TWY B

[RW20]

That was our plan for the abortive attempt at what would have been an extended TWY A. With 400+ metres lopped of the 20 backtrack with an extended TWY A, life would have been so much simpler for both 20 & 02 ops, the added bonus being a frequent ability for many 02 arrivals to vacate without needing a backtrack
TCAS FAN
Surely it would be lunacy not to implement this taxiway when construction eventually starts?.If movements increase post extension it could be costly if its not inplace!
In addition to the start of the runway extension ,I wonder why the aircraft stands 1-5 havnt been reconfigured for A320 parking ?

[gkmeech]

TCAS FAN
Surely it would be lunacy not to implement this taxiway when construction eventually starts?.If movements increase post extension it could be costly if its not inplace!
In addition to the start of the runway extension ,I wonder why the aircraft stands 1-5 havnt been reconfigured for A320 parking ?

As part of the build stands are being reconfigured to be 1-4 so that A320 can be parked on them.

[TCAS FAN]

TCAS FAN
Surely it would be lunacy not to implement this taxiway when construction eventually starts?.If movements increase post extension it could be costly if its not inplace!
In addition to the start of the runway extension ,I wonder why the aircraft stands 1-5 havnt been reconfigured for A320 parking ?

My past role involved me in the planning process to resolve existing and future operating constraints including improvement of runway utilisation in order to grow the business. Unfortunately, this was often frustrated by executive decisions. The TWY A “missing link” and building the multi-storey Short Term Car Park right up to the boundary fence were two classics.

As you have probably deduced, the lunacy kicked in well above my pay grade!

Time will tell whether this still prevails.

[stewyb]

Decent year of pax numbers for the airport with 600k+ in 2022 (263k for ‘21), this on the back of Covid, loss of BE business totalling 90% of flights and business travel not returning to pre pandemic levels. With the extension being available within the next few months and hopefully the addition of a select number of new routes with a LCC, the airport will be targeting 1m p/a as its first landmark towards break even and ultimate profitability. Won’t be easily achieved but one that is not insurmountable as per my post #1197. Look forward to what 2023 delivers!

[RW20]

Decent year of pax numbers for the airport with 600k+ in 2022 (263k for ‘21), this on the back of Covid, loss of BE business totalling 90% of flights and business travel not returning to pre pandemic levels. With the extension being available within the next few months and hopefully the addition of a select number of new routes with a LCC, the airport will be targeting 1m p/a as its first landmark towards break even and ultimate profitability. Won’t be easily achieved but one that is not insurmountable as per my post #1197. Look forward to what 2023 delivers!

Indeed a big improvement ,but must be put into perspective ,must regional airports improved by 400% including Bournemouth ( SOU 300%). Southampton still needs to double its annual pax to break even. Unless there is a massive increase in 2023 ( there is little indication at this time) they will not meet this in the new future.
The long protracted small runway extension is yet to begin,and will have little effect on pax numbers for 2023. Marketing for the airport needs to.improve,the BA cityflyer operation seems to be fading fast,which is such a shame,but hasnt been promoted well from the airport. To make a profit and make full use of the extension there needs to be a major drive by the airport owners to attract airlines and promote routes now, 2024 needs to be defining for the airport future.

[stewyb]

RW20 - agree on many points, however SOU has a higher ceiling for future pax growth compared to BOH, which I suggest has almost maxed out with RYR being the dominant carrier and won’t produce any further significant expansion, not withstanding an additional airline or two arriving which I don’t foresee whilst O’Leary is around. You are correct in saying 2024 is a huge year for SOU and airline/s need to be lined up ready to achieve these forecasts during the period but this will only come with clever regional marketing and to maximise on spreading the message wide and far!

[adfly]

Southampton S23

Relating to the discussion about passenger numbers, I thought I'd put one of these summaries together, with some comparisons to the last 'good' summer in 2019. Based on w/c 17th July. A long way to go but not as much difference as I expected flight wise, although average aircraft size is down too.

Aer Lingus Regional

Belfast City - 13 weekly AT7
Dublin - 13 weekly AT7

Aurigny

Alderney - 14 weekly D28
Guernsey - 7 weekly AT7

BA Cityflyer

Alicante - 1 weekly E90
Bergerac - 1 weekly E90
Dublin - 1 weekly E90
Edinburgh - 1 weekly E90
Faro - 1 weekly E90
Limoges - 1 weekly E90
Malaga - 1 weekly E90
Palma - 3 weekly E90

Blue Islands

Guernsey - 17 weekly AT7
Jersey - 24 weekly AT7

Eastern Airways

Belfast International - 7 weekly AT7
Dublin - 7 weekly AT7
Manchester - 11 weekly AT7

Flybe

Belfast City - 7 weekly DH4

KLM

Amsterdam - 13 weekly E75/E90 (8x/5x)

Loganair

Edinburgh - 30 weekly ER4
Glasgow - 30 weekly ER4
Newcastle - 18 weekly ER4

TUI

Palma - 2 weekly E90 (operated by BA Cityflyer)

Summary

224 weekly departures (321-344 in S19)
32 daily departures (46-49 in S19)

[SouthernAlliance]

BA EDI x 1 weekly?

[adfly]

BA EDI x 1 weekly?
Indeed, good spot, will add it.

[MARKEYD]

Good information about the timetable Adfly as always

Heads up on the Bergerac, it’s now only 1 flight a week as Tuesday and Sunday been cancelled ( or about to be pulled )

BA Cityflyer are only basing 4 aircraft into Southampton this summer at peak months compared to 7 last summer

[rog747]

Flybe announced summer 2023 yesterday, but SOU didn't get a mention :(
Only 2023 route seems to be BHD Belfast City just once daily at lunchtimes - (Not operating until 22 February 2023)
Toulon and Avignon flown last summer are not listed as flying (yet >? Fly Maybe lol)

Oh well-----Poof!

All gone again - nothing in the local SOU rag, but the EXT paper picks it up and on morning TV news.

Flybe goes under again (https://www.devonlive.com/news/devon-news/flybe-cancels-flights-plunges-administration-8084675)

[SWBKCB]

SOU have got off lightly this time - wonder if this down to luck or judgement on behalf of the airport management?

[TCAS FAN]

With the current speculation as to whether or not the runway extension work has commenced, I offer the following observations, and one suggestion.

While there may be some preparatory work in progress, the planning and execution of the project is strictly regulated by a CAA aerodrome development process, as set out in CAP 791.

As a runway extension is classified IAW CAP 791 as a “major” development there are multiple regulatory hoops through which AGS must negotiate, and pay the CAA for the privilege of doing so!

First hoop, before any work can commence, is CAA approval of the overall project planning and execution plan.

The CAA are not renowned for their speed of work, so hopefully the CAP 791 process has already been commenced by AGS.

Part of the planning process is recognition of the impact that the construction work will have on any aircraft movements, and putting in place mitigation measures to ensure that they can safely continue.

An overview of the project, its scheduling and its temporary impact on aircraft movements will be most likely be set out in a UK AIP Supplement, which itself may have short term issues highlighted or notified via NOTAM as the project progresses.

When the AIP Supplement is published it can be accessed online via:

https://nats-uk.ead-it.com/cms-nats/opencms/en/Publications/aip-supplements/

AIP Supplements are published every 28 days. As of today nothing is currently shown. The next batch of Supplements are due for publication on 17 November.

Quite apart from the formal notification of the date that work will commence, I would think that the AGS media organisation will not miss the opportunity to have some symbolic turf cutting ceremony. or similar, immediately before construction starts.

My suggestion? Maybe the BOH Airport Managing Director could be invited to do it?


Latest batch of AIP Supplements released today (AIRAC 3/2023), no sign of anything relating to the runway extension, next batch should be released around 9 March which, if the actual extension work is to commence early/mid April, should contain the schedule, the impact that it will have on continued runway operations during the WIP, and any other development work that will take place concurrently.

[RW20]

TCAS FAN
Their is a council meeting on Friday 03/02 ( Airport Consultative Committe) on the agenda is the runway extension update.
One would hope to get news on this,although I must say there there has been little or no news for many months. Surely the airport management have put in place the details to get this done by later in the year?

[stewyb]

TCAS FAN
Their is a council meeting on Friday 03/02 ( Airport Consultative Committe) on the agenda is the runway extension update.
One would hope to get news on this,although I must say there there has been little or no news for many months. Surely the airport management have put in place the details to get this done by later in the year?

Don’t panic RW20, it’s commencing very soon!

[TCAS FAN]

TCAS FAN
Their is a council meeting on Friday 03/02 ( Airport Consultative Committe) on the agenda is the runway extension update.
One would hope to get news on this,although I must say there there has been little or no news for many months. Surely the airport management have put in place the details to get this done by later in the year?

AGS firstly have to secure project approval from CAA, who will want to see the extent of project, its scheduling and that adequate risk mitigation will be in place to permit a tolerably safe continuance of runway operations during the conduct of the work. Maybe some announcement of CAA project approval will be made at the meeting?

Once CAA approval has been given (which hopefully it has by now, or is imminent), details go to NATS AIM to compile the AIP Supplement. If the project is on schedule the Supplement should appear with the next batch around 9 March.

The AIP Supplement, which is a legal document, will be used by aircraft operators to determine the impact/restrictions on their operations during construction work.

Once construction work nears completion, if AGS are on the ball, they will have scheduled their surveyors to come in to verify the "as built" runway dimensions/elevations which, subject to CAA approval, should initially.be published via NOTAM before appearing in the AIP. The latter may have a two/three month lead time.

Once the NOTAM appears with extended runway declared distances aircraft operators can revise their performance charts to take advantage of the improvements that they will bring.

[commit aviation]

TCAS FAN. The airport may well be talking with their CAA aerodrome inspector behind the scenes. The formal submission of the CAP791 to the development team often happens just before the work commences. The safety case needs input from the contractor so difficult to produce it a long way in advance.
You are correct regarding AIP updates - they take a while to work through the system so may even precede the approval.
Not just a ground survey but a flight survey required too and I would suspect some kind of impact assessment on ATC services. If memory serves me, that's no less than three different CAA inspectorates.

[RW20]

AGS firstly have to secure project approval from CAA, who will want to see the extent of project, its scheduling and that adequate risk mitigation will be in place to permit a tolerably safe continuance of runway operations during the conduct of the work. Maybe some announcement of CAA project approval will be made at the meeting?

Once CAA approval has been given (which hopefully it has by now, or is imminent), details go to NATS AIM to compile the AIP Supplement. If the project is on schedule the Supplement should appear with the next batch around 9 March.

The AIP Supplement, which is a legal document, will be used by aircraft operators to determine the impact/restrictions on their operations during construction work.

Once construction work nears completion, if AGS are on the ball, they will have scheduled their surveyors to come in to verify the "as built" runway dimensions/elevations which, subject to CAA approval, should initially.be published via NOTAM before appearing in the AIP. The latter may have a two/three month lead time.

Once the NOTAM appears with extended runway declared distances aircraft operators can revise their performance charts to take advantage of the improvements that they will bring.
A great recap on how things might move forward. However given the described timescale,its unilghtly the airport will see any benefits in 2023 at best!!
It seems to be a very long timescale ,set in very difficult financial times.

[TCAS FAN]

TCAS FAN. The airport may well be talking with their CAA aerodrome inspector behind the scenes. The formal submission of the CAP791 to the development team often happens just before the work commences. The safety case needs input from the contractor so difficult to produce it a long way in advance.
You are correct regarding AIP updates - they take a while to work through the system so may even precede the approval.
Not just a ground survey but a flight survey required too and I would suspect some kind of impact assessment on ATC services. If memory serves me, that's no less than three different CAA inspectorates.

The CAP 791 process certainly does not happen shortly before work commences. Although, in accordance with CAP 791 criteria this is a "major" development, it is a very small scale project when compared with LHR's third runway, which also falls into the same classification!

While the designated CAA Aerodrome Inspector will be involved, the Aerodrome Development Team will manage the approvals process.

The CAP 791 process is set out in three stages Compliance, Control and Completion.

Assuming that an April start is still planned, IMHO on 1 February the first stage, Compliance, should by now be done and dusted. This describes the project and requires evidence to show that the development complies with all design and regulatory requirements.

Control, requires evidence to show that the project can be safely managed, especially as the runway will remain in use throughout the project. If not already completed and signed off by CAA, it should be shortly to enable NATS AIM to compile the AIP Supplement to publish in March.

Completion, requires the aerodrome operator to convince the CAA that the completed project is fit for purpose, in accordance with the design submitted/approved in the Compliance stage.

Prior to submitting the Completion documents to CAA, as mentioned in an earlier post, the extension will need to be surveyed to confirm such issues as dimensions and levels, together with details necessary to update the CAA required "Aerodrome Plan". In order to bring the extension into the earliest possible operational use scheduling of the surveyors is critical. As soon as the paint markings are completed they need to be onsite.

It will not be possible to complete AIP updates until the surveyors complete work on the "as built" development, compile a Report, and have it approved by NATS AIM.

The "flight survey" mentioned will be a flight check of the new lighting. Given that it is only a 164 metres extension lighting changes should consist of a new couple of pairs of elevated runway edge lights, insetting of RWY 20 approach lighting (about six lights?), addition of runway centreline lights, RWY 02 end-of-runway lights and turning area blue edge lights. The current RWY 20 threshold and PAPIs will be unchanged.

Lighting flight checks are normally carried out by the aircraft that conducts the navaid flight checks. As SOU has an ILS navaid flight checks are carried out every six months. It is accordingly possible that the subsequent navaid flight check could be brought forward to accommodate the lighting check. Worst case will be a supplementary lighting flight check,

ATC impact, negligible. Apart from the frustration of having to increase spacing between an arrival and a 20 departure, due to the increased backtrack (assuming that the TWY A "missing link" doesn't happen), a minor change to ATC's MATS Part 2 may be necessary. If it does this can be approved before project completion.

We can now but wait as to what AGS are going to reveal at Friday's Airport Consultative Committee meeting. Maybe then it can be ascertained if the project is on schedule.

[SouthernAlliance]

With the runway extension, would the airport be able to sustain a 2-3 Airbus base?

[TCAS FAN]

With the runway extension, would the airport be able to sustain a 2-3 Airbus base?

If you are offering, yes!

My understanding from other posts is that as part of the runway extension project current Stands 1-5 will be re-aligned into 4 x A319/320 stands.

[Dropoffcharge]

With the runway extension, would the airport be able to sustain a 2-3 Airbus base?

An Airbus base is very debatable still (as discussed many times previously) factors such as airport opening hours, and lack of CAT3 lighting being the main hurdles for any potential LCC. However as far as the newly extended runway and stand reconfiguration goes, yes it will be able to deal with those kinds of aircraft once works are all completed.

[Sharklet_321]

I guess opening hours and lighting are easily fixed so if an LCC was interested you can bet the airport will tell them it’s 24hrs and lighting will be upgraded.

Pretty sure it’s only a matter of time before 3 easyJet A320N are based there. The opportunity is frankly massive. Congestion in the terminal would also be a good problem for the airport to solve.