Southampton-3

[jensdad]

Newcastle might not be your best example - it isn't served by a motorway, or a train station, has a large chunk of its catchement area in the sea and is surrounded by National Parks, moorland and single track roads. And lost it's easyJet base.
To be fair, that's actually a lot more similar to Southampton or Bournemouth than many of us Geordies would think :) Maybe not moorland and single track roads, but decent swathes of Southern England are pleasantly unspoiled (and coastal). And while not a motorway, getting from the A1 to Newcastle airport's a doddle.

[rog747]

Let's put a positive spin on SOU for 2024 - It is what it is for now...

We do have a selection of new Easyjet routes, both Domestic, International Leisure, and of the course the GVA SKI flights (Fancy the Slopes anyone?)
Very attractive fares, as I have found out myself, so get them whilst you can as they say.

We do have plenty of DUBLIN flights - >
These flights can give you plenty of Interline connections on Aer Lingus, AA, DL, UA, and B6 to the USA (usually with the rather handy USCBP/TSA pre-screening)
and to Canada with EI, AC, WS, and TS.
(many are Seasonal of course)

Twice daily KLM to Amsterdam, where again the World is your oyster with Interline connections.

We have Belfast (to Both Airports) where you can get good connections going via there, to LPL, MAN etc (All still quicker and cheaper than taking the 'slow' Train, or Driving)
Plus, Loganair has a handful of Domestics to Scotland and NCL.

As for BACF, we do still have some Seasonal Destinations left,
plus TUI Holidays charters them twice weekly for summer Package Holidays to Majorca on Tuesdays and Saturdays.

We may see more places added by Easyjet in time, as they have cautiously done at Southend...

Use it or lose it, as they often say,
but as we know and have discussed it here often, the 'Word' on the streets about new flights has to be put out there, and that is the job of the Airport, the Airlines, local Travel Agents and the Media.

And for one last time, we will not see the Boeing 737-800NG, nor the 737-MAX at SOU where it will be severely Payload restricted.
(Which depletes most places we would want it to go to).
SOU's runway is not Southend's runway, so can we leave it there please LOL.

[SWBKCB]

Although as your aware unlike very similar UK airports Newcastle Airport does at least have a Metro Station linking the airport to central Newcastle including the cities main railway station as well as to the wider region. In that respect Newcastle Airport does however have excellent local links via the cities Metro system. Although it's not ideal at least the major trunk road the A1 is only 3 miles distance from Newcastle Airport.

Yes - we agree, not served by a train station or motorway. :ok:

[cavokblues]

And for one last time, we will not see the Boeing 737-800NG, nor the 737-MAX at SOU where it will be severely Payload restricted.
(Which depletes most places we would want it to go to).
SOU's runway is not Southend's runway, so can we leave it there please LOL.

With the greatest respect, people keep saying the 737NG would be restricted out of SOU yet it operated out of SEN which has a shorter TODA. Whilst the Canaries etc would be too far, there is no technical reason they can't do the likes of Malaga etc.

[Albert Hall]

Southend doesn’t have the obstacle issues that R20 at Southampton has. That’s the difference. Departure off 20 is still limiting for several aircraft types.

[rog747]

With the greatest respect, people keep saying the 737NG would be restricted out of SOU yet it operated out of SEN which has a shorter TODA. Whilst the Canaries etc would be too far, there is no technical reason they can't do the likes of Malaga etc.

And with all due respect back to you,
to put it simply, if you have some 737-800 Pilot mates then just ask them if they can crunch the numbers for you on a SOU-AGP flight with 189 pax on, plus bags, and they will give you the answer.
Also ask them if they could do an immediate return to land with one engine out, or say a fire on board.
The Computer will say No.
It's too heavy and too fast and doesn't stop too well.

I trust that clarifies why.

Plus to confirm, Mr O'Leary said a few years back to the SOU Airport Management ''We cannot go to SOU'' even with the Runway Extension.

I see that TCAS_FAN has already answered to you recently but I was going to quote his sage knowledge.

[cavokblues]

The obstacles are covered under TODA, are they not?

So a 737NG can do SEN - AGP on a shorter TODA but not from SOU? How does that work?

Ryanair operate from a much shorter runway at Skiathos to the likes of Rome. Whilst that isn't as far as the likes of Southern Spain, it doesn't rule out several French destinations and the balearics

[Asturias56]

"Yes - we agree, not served by a train station or motorway"

But a 4 lane highway that's nowhere near as busy as the M3 AND A Metro - - better than Southampton, Bournemouth, Leeds, Glasgow, Aberdeen, Bristol , Cardiff.....................................

[jensdad]

Yes - we agree, not served by a train station or motorway. :ok:
You should be a politician :)
It's literally 3 minutes on a delay-free dual carriageway from the A1 (which, but for the absence of a hard shoulder, is a motorway), which is about as close as Heathrow is to the M4. And the Metro is a train. :)
EDIT: Apols, my Asturian (or possibly Ferrarese) friend has already pointed that out :)

[SWBKCB]

I think I've been too subtle again - I'll try harder next time 👍

[Asturias56]

I think I've been too subtle again - I'll try harder next time 👍

This is Pprune .......................................

anyway back to the South Coast...................

[Ascupart]

BOH has a big advantage with the length of its runway less restrictive operational times,enabling destinations and a full schedule for the based 738s.
SOU has the best transport links, and great location,it does however need management to promote and advertise its existing routes and to become more proactive in developing much needed new routes.
I see that there is a puff piece on the Daily Echo website today listing all the current routes served by the airport. Perhaps someone has been listening!

[SKOJB]

And with all due respect back to you,
to put it simply, if you have some 737-800 Pilot mates then just ask them if they can crunch the numbers for you on a SOU-AGP flight with 189 pax on, plus bags, and they will give you the answer.
Also ask them if they could do an immediate return to land with one engine out, or say a fire on board.
The Computer will say No.
It's too heavy and too fast and doesn't stop too well.

I trust that clarifies why.

Plus to confirm, Mr O'Leary said a few years back to the SOU Airport Management ''We cannot go to SOU'' even with the Runway Extension.

I see that TCAS_FAN has already answered to you recently but I was going to quote his sage knowledge.

lol, we all know you take everything O’Leary says with a pinch of salt

[Pain in the R's]

I see that there is a puff piece on the Daily Echo website today listing all the current routes served by the airport. Perhaps someone has been listening!

It is a depressingly short list despite the runway extension. I can name many an airport that will handle that many destinations in an hour.

[SKOJB]

It is a depressingly short list despite the runway extension. I can name many an airport that will handle that many destinations in an hour.

Oh dear, this is a provincial airport not LHR or MAN. That ‘depressingly short list’ still has near on 30 departures a day and expect that to increase with the summer schedule not far way. Post BE it will take a lot longer to build up a route network again

[adfly]

KLM have increased Amsterdam to 20x weekly flights from 31st March (3x daily ex. 2x on Sat). Drops back to 2x daily from 29th June - 25th August but the extra flights return afterwards. Good to see that they appear to be doing well, and the new schedule also just about allows a quick day trip to be made (plus it presumably also improves connection opportunities).

[Ascupart]

November's CAA figures are now available. Southampton handled 56,489 passengers in November 2023

For comparison:

Nov 2022: 54,704
Nov 2019: 121,436
Nov 2018 141,028
Nov 2017: 143,587

Predictions for Nov 2024? Will we see six figures again?

[SouthernAlliance]

November's CAA figures are now available. Southampton handled 56,489 passengers in November 2023

For comparison:

Nov 2022: 54,704
Nov 2019: 121,436
Nov 2018 141,028
Nov 2017: 143,587

Predictions for Nov 2024? Will we see six figures again?

Airport has achieved its target for this year of 750k and next year is 1m (83k monthly) so doable

[cavokblues]

Interesting to see the Glasgow figures since EasyJet started on the route.

October 2023 = 7618
November 2023 = 8512

[SWBKCB]

Interesting to see the Glasgow figures since EasyJet started on the route.

October 2023 = 7618
November 2023 = 8512

September 2023 = 7447

September 2022 = 7280
October 2022 = 7661
November 2022 = 7402

[SouthernAlliance]

September 2023 = 7447

September 2022 = 7280
October 2022 = 7661
November 2022 = 7402

EZY didn’t start on GLA until early Nov so year on year for the same month, a decent increase. EZY also had an impact on EI to BHD which is down 7% for Nov year on year with 2347 on the new BFS service

[cavokblues]

I'm not so sure how to read into those figures.

For the additional seats added, the increase in pax seems very modest.

Obviously, very early doors but intrigued to see what happens when easy's frequency increases and how sustainable the total pax figures are shared between two operators.

[Ascupart]

Airport has achieved its target for this year of 750k and next year is 1m (83k monthly) so doable
Looking into predictions, according to the latest Eastleigh Airport Consultative Committee, the predicted passengers for 2023 was 800K. CAA figures for the year Dec 2022 - Nov 2023 is 748K so in the ballpark.

Where does the 1M prediction come from?

[TCAS FAN]

……

Where does the 1M prediction come from?

AGS, the airport owner/operator.

[Albert Hall]

The easyJet figures are 59% loadfactor on SOU-BFS and although you can't tell a split between LM and EZY on the SOU-GLA CAA stats, I'm hearing that easyJet's loads on GLA are modest and at a similar 55-60% level to the BFS. It will be interesting to see how and whether this builds.

[RW20]

The easyJet figures are 59% loadfactor on SOU-BFS and although you can't tell a split between LM and EZY on the SOU-GLA CAA stats, I'm hearing that easyJet's loads on GLA are modest and at a similar 55-60% level to the BFS. It will be interesting to see how and whether this builds.
I imagine that unless Easy stats pick up then they won't be sticking around for long on the GLA or BFS routes.
Its going to be interesting on how SOU get to the quoted 1 mill pax for 2024.

[davidjohnson6]

Easyjet tried Southend-Edinburgh - that didn't work particularly well... but Easyjet did stay with Southend on other routes (well, at least until Covid happened)

[SouthernAlliance]

I imagine that unless Easy stats pick up then they won't be sticking around for long on the GLA or BFS routes.
Its going to be interesting on how SOU get to the quoted 1 mill pax for 2024.

So you are basing your theory on the first 4 weeks of operation, thankfully easyjet will probably look slightly longer term

[Sharklet_321]

Airport has achieved its target for this year of 750k and next year is 1m (83k monthly) so doable

It's quite possible, especially with a 3rd daily KLM cityhopper.

Let's just hope that EI and LM don't reduce seat numbers in response to U2 competition.

[SWBKCB]

The easyJet figures are 59% loadfactor on SOU-BFS and although you can't tell a split between LM and EZY on the SOU-GLA CAA stats, I'm hearing that easyJet's loads on GLA are modest and at a similar 55-60% level to the BFS. It will be interesting to see how and whether this builds.

BHD Nov 23 was down 600 on Nov 22, but there again Sept and Oct were down even more on the same months in 22

[Sharklet_321]

BHD Nov 23 was down 600 on Nov 22, but there again Sept and Oct were down even more on the same months in 22

EDI Nov 23 was down too by over 1,100 on Nov 22. Could be as a result of Ryanair down the road?

[Flitefone]

EDI Nov 23 was down too by over 1,100 on Nov 22. Could be as a result of Ryanair down the road?

I imagine its much more likely a result of huge growth at other airports used by southern travellers:

From CAA November 23 for EDI vs 2022 in round numbers.

BHX up 13k
LHR up 23k
LGW up 3k
BRS up 18k
BOH up 4k
SOU down 1k

Competition is biting and it looks that particularly LHR and BRS are winning the market share.


FF

[RA85684]

That is quite a reasonable assumption, I used Flybe NCL-SOU to get to Bristol before, and it was a breeze. So I reckon there's a fair share of people that would leak to BRS out of SOU's catchment.

[SKOJB]

Radical maybe but is the time coming for a couple of 319 easyjet based to service all domestic inc BHD, GLA, EDI, MAN and NCL? Looking at latest CAA stats, one would imagine Loganair are starting to feel the pinch from competition and load/yield is suffering accordingly due their business model of only 49 seat aircraft. Don’t want to see frequency removed but not sure for how much longer it will be viable whilst continuing to charge their ridiculous seat prices and leaking business to easyJet and other regional airports. I feel something has to give in the not too distant future. Just my thoughts

[TCAS FAN]

[QUOTE=SKOJB;11579512]Radical maybe but is the time coming for a couple of 319 easyjet based to service all domestic inc BHD, GLA, EDI, MAN and NCL? ……/QUOTE]

Believe that EZY are phasing out the A319s. How about Air Baltic UK with A220-300s? The aeroplane built for SOU?

[Wycombe]

Noticed that today there are 3 Easyjet GVA rotations (one more than normally scheduled on a Sat this winter). Hopefully that means the route is performing well.

[rog747]

Noticed that today there are 3 Easyjet GVA rotations (one more than normally scheduled on a Sat this winter). Hopefully that means the route is performing well.

All of the Consultants and Surgeons are off on their SKI Hols LOL (well mine are anyway)

[rog747]

Lots of Go Arounds and ultimate Diversions around the UK last night, and in the afternoon, due to the Storm with many diversions going off to various places including Overseas.
Most UK airports that were still open had to then refuse diversions due to no ramp space left.

Had it on good ear last night, that SOU planned to stay open late, to accept up to 4 Airbus Diversions, but not sure if the weather then turned against them for that.
I note that most scheduled flights due into SOU after 1500 hours were all cancelled by the Airlines. (KLM, Loganair, Aer Lingus, Blue Islands)
The GVA and a JER managed to get in and out.

An EasyJet EDI-BRS went to CDG !
Why on earth it even departed EDI I really have no idea - !
They could not go back to EDI due >55 knots Crosswinds.
What an operational mess - Pax with no Passports etc...
Did EZY Ops not read the Bristol TAF ?

IMHO these LoCo Domestic, and Euro flights could/should have been Cancelled, and would then not disrupt today's schedule with the Pax, Crews, and the Planes now all over the show.
But hey ho that's above my Pay Grade today LOL.

[Asturias56]

[QUOTE=SKOJB;11579512]Radical maybe but is the time coming for a couple of 319 easyjet based to service all domestic inc BHD, GLA, EDI, MAN and NCL? ……/QUOTE]

Believe that EZY are phasing out the A319s. How about Air Baltic UK with A220-300s? The aeroplane built for SOU?

It would be interesting to see an airline based around the A220 flying regional routes around Europe - probably more expensive than a real LCO but cheaper than the likes of Loganair

[LTNman]

Had it on good ear last night, that SOU planned to stay open late, to accept up to 4 Airbus Diversions, but not sure if the weather then turned against them for that.
I note that most scheduled flights due into SOU after 1500 hours were all cancelled by the Airlines. (KLM, Loganair, Aer Lingus, Blue Islands)
The GVA and a JER managed to get in and out.


I would guess a major issue at SOU was that its runway width is only 37m wide and not the standard 46m.

[TCAS FAN]

I would guess a major issue at SOU was that its runway width is only 37m wide and not the standard 46m.

Wasn't a problem at SEN yesterday, their runway is only 36M wide!

[LTNman]

Depends which direction the runway points and the wind speed at each airport.

[TCAS FAN]

Depends which direction the runway points and the wind speed at each airport.

Take a look at FR24 historical METAR data, SOU did not have a crosswind problem yesterday, the wind was almost straight down the runway all day. The problem was crosswinds at departure airports with a likelihood that aircraft could get back in on the return sector from SOU, with the knock on effect of devastating today's schedules.

[SealinkBF]

Head for Points visits Southampton Airport
I visit Southampton to see why 164m of new runway is a big deal (headforpoints.com) (https://www.headforpoints.com/2024/01/22/behind-the-scenes-at-southampton-airport/)

[willy wombat]

[QUOTE=TCAS FAN;11579547]

It would be interesting to see an airline based around the A220 flying regional routes around Europe - probably more expensive than a real LCO but cheaper than the likes of Loganair I can see why people suggest it but i think the following need to be considered -
1/ in the first instance it will be interesting to see how EZY’s sunshine flights do. If they don’t prove extremely popular, given EZY’s very strong brand and recognition factor, there wouldn’t be much hope for a lesser known carrier operating an aircraft with higher ASK costs. 2/ if lesser known carrier did establish an operation with A220s successfully then there is a high risk that EZY or another with A320s would jump on it. You could of course say that the A220 operator should restrict itself to longer routes that the A320 cannot economically operate from SOU but that wouldn’t work as you need a mix of varying sector lengths to schedule effectively. 3/ it’s raised often enough but you have to consider SOU opening hours. If the last inbound of the day is regularly sent to BOH it would quickly kill the operation. The alternative of night stopping away is very expensive in terms of crew, hotac etc and really not feasible.

[RW20]

[QUOTE=Asturias56;11580928] I can see why people suggest it but i think the following need to be considered -
1/ in the first instance it will be interesting to see how EZY’s sunshine flights do. If they don’t prove extremely popular, given EZY’s very strong brand and recognition factor, there wouldn’t be much hope for a lesser known carrier operating an aircraft with higher ASK costs. 2/ if lesser known carrier did establish an operation with A220s successfully then there is a high risk that EZY or another with A320s would jump on it. You could of course say that the A220 operator should restrict itself to longer routes that the A320 cannot economically operate from SOU but that wouldn’t work as you need a mix of varying sector lengths to schedule effectively. 3/ it’s raised often enough but you have to consider SOU opening hours. If the last inbound of the day is regularly sent to BOH it would quickly kill the operation. The alternative of night stopping away is very expensive in terms of crew, hotac etc and really not feasible.
Excellent assessment ,indeed if Easy don't do well on there limited Sunshine routes then the break even 1.2 mill Pax will be a pipe dream. The outstanding problem for SOU is the opening hours,unless there is flexibility with these there is no prospect of based aircraft ,a big restriction for any carrier.

[inOban]

What is the cost per ASK of a 220 with modern engines compared with a 319 with older engines?

[SouthernAlliance]

[QUOTE=willy wombat;11581242]
Excellent assessment ,indeed if Easy don't do well on there limited Sunshine routes then the break even 1.2 mill Pax will be a pipe dream. The outstanding problem for SOU is the opening hours,unless there is flexibility with these there is no prospect of based aircraft ,a big restriction for any carrier.

Is your record stuck? Over and over again!

[RW20]

[QUOTE=RW20;11581273]

Is your record stuck? Over and over again!
Can you offer a viable answer to SOU restrictions ?or is it just continued criticism!


​​​​​

[SouthernAlliance]

[QUOTE=SouthernAlliance;11581298]
Can you offer a viable answer to SOU restrictions ?or is it just continued criticism!


​​​​​

Post 2454 will give you an idea of my optimism for the future :ok:

[cavokblues]

What is the cost per ASK of a 220 with modern engines compared with a 319 with older engines?

Not entirely sure of a direct head to head. But a rough indicator taken from Air Baltic and Easyjet's investor reports.

Air Baltic CASK for their A220 fleet = €4.75
Easy's CASK for their combined Airbus fleet = £4.44

[SWBKCB]

What's the cost of a new A220 compared to a paid for EMB145, and who wants to put up the money?

[Asturias56]

What's the cost of a new A220 compared to a paid for EMB145, and who wants to put up the money?

Well - there's always SOMENONE willing to invest - see Global Airlines thread - and you can get a lot more passengers in a 220 - so your economies of scale start to work. Flying commercial jets in Europe with only 40-50 seats doesn't work very well.

[SWBKCB]

Well - there's always SOMENONE willing to invest - see Global Airlines thread - and you can get a lot more passengers in a 220 - so your economies of scale start to work. Flying commercial jets in Europe with only 40-50 seats doesn't work very well.

Outside of LCC's and feeding hubs, what regional flying works well?

[TCAS FAN]

Not entirely sure of a direct head to head. But a rough indicator taken from Air Baltic and Easyjet's investor reports.

Air Baltic CASK for their A220 fleet = €4.75
Easy's CASK for their combined Airbus fleet = £4.44

Converting €4.75 at today's £ rate that comes in about £2.95 £4.06. Time for AGS to consider a dialogue with Air Baltic?

I stand corrected by post 2806, maths was never my strong point! To my mind the A220 is competitive with their big brothers.

[davidjohnson6]

£1 = €1.17
£4.06 = €4.75

[Saabdriver1]

Until or unless the obstacles on departure from runway 20 are remediated, pretty much any airline operating at Southampton whether with ATR72, A319 or Embraer 145 will continue to see limitations. You run into these with a low QNH or high OAT, so in poor weather or on a warm sunny day, it reduces the available payload. The limitations have improved quite a bit with the recent opening of the starter strip as the declared distances have improved, but they have not gone away. What you can do/fly from that runway has changed, but it is not limitless by any means - A319/320 being better than 737-800 unless the -800 has the uprated engines (which are expensive).

That's before you get to any consideration of the operating hour restrictions in relation to a potential base by whomever.

[RA85684]

Hypothetically, if Loganair were to consider their future and choose growth and effective competition on domestic routes against EZY, what would be the difference in CASK for:
ERJ145 vs E190E2/195E2/A221/A223?

Does it stack up? If Loganair can operate business friendly flight times at low cost prices, surely they can tap into the demand. Plenty of domestic routes out of SOU, GLA, EDI, LHR, ABZ could support a fleet of around a dozen E-jets. Take SOU-NCL for example - Flybe operated 78 seat aircraft up to 4 times daily and pulled in over 12,000 monthly passengers.

Loganair now operate 2 daily 49 seat aircraft and less than 5,000 monthly passengers.

Presumably the route is profitable, but that to me suggests that the route is under served, bringing the risk of competition jumping in on the route, which… in the shape of EZY, poses a threat to LM, and ends up worse for the consumer in the end.

How does LM step up?

[SWBKCB]

Flybe went bust doing what you are suggesting, LM have survived doing what they are doing.

[Saabdriver1]

By not getting e-Jets for a start. With the noise-related charges at LHR for e-jets, anyone considering flying 170s/190s etc into Heathrow needs their head examined.

[willy wombat]

Hypothetically, if Loganair were to consider their future and choose growth and effective competition on domestic routes against EZY, what would be the difference in CASK for:
ERJ145 vs E190E2/195E2/A221/A223?

Does it stack up? If Loganair can operate business friendly flight times at low cost prices, surely they can tap into the demand. Plenty of domestic routes out of SOU, GLA, EDI, LHR, ABZ could support a fleet of around a dozen E-jets. Take SOU-NCL for example - Flybe operated 78 seat aircraft up to 4 times daily and pulled in over 12,000 monthly passengers.

Loganair now operate 2 daily 49 seat aircraft and less than 5,000 monthly passengers.

Presumably the route is profitable, but that to me suggests that the route is under served, bringing the risk of competition jumping in on the route, which… in the shape of EZY, poses a threat to LM, and ends up worse for the consumer in the end.

How does LM step up?
I’m not sure you meant it but your post reads as if you believe that any route that is profitable must be being underserved.

[Asturias56]

well a drop from 12K to 5k would suggest that there is an untapped market - but then you have to consider the price elasticity of course. Loganair are in the business of making a profit - if they could make thate same profit from 1k passengers I'm sure they'd do it. They'll (wisely) bail out if someone comes in and undercuts them

[willy wombat]

well a drop from 12K to 5k would suggest that there is an untapped market - but then you have to consider the price elasticity of course. Loganair are in the business of making a profit - if they could make thate same profit from 1k passengers I'm sure they'd do it. They'll (wisely) bail out if someone comes in and undercuts them
But how do you define “underserved”? Just because the route generated more passengers when sub economic fares were offered doesn’t mean it’s now underserved.

[Albert Hall]

Everyone seems very quick to forget this thing we had called a pandemic which changed working practices, changed the way in which much business takes place (on a quick-fire series of Teams or Zoom meetings instead of days out of the office on business travel) and the minor issue that we have a cost of living crisis going on which is impacting discretionary spend on all sorts of things from cinemas to air travel.

You cannot say that because Flybe carried X in 2019 on any given route, it should now be carrying Y today - it doesn't matter whether it's Loganair, easyJet or Timbuktu Airways as the operator. The world has changed. All of those factors have affected the demand for air travel in different ways on different routes, depending on what the customer base was for that route before the pandemic and now.

Even in Flybe's day their frequencies were up and down like a yo-yo. NCL-SOU was generally 3pd. EDI-SOU went between 4 and 6 and might even have hit 7 for a short time. MAN-SOU was generally 5 but at different times was 4 or 6. Does a 3pd Q400 back in 2019 translate into a 2pd E145 today to service the demand which is still there on the route? Quite possibly.

It's incredible how quick people are to forget about all of these factors when deciding what airlines should and shouldn't be doing! And if I was Air Baltic (which I'm not) then I'd have thought the possibility of setting up a UK AOC to fly some short domestic sectors with A220s would probably be somewhere at the bottom of my list of priorities, if not off the bottom of it completely.

[SouthernAlliance]

Agree with Albert Hall and in which case the idea of someone like easyJet offering a cheaper fare and once daily due to reduced demand, as a result of the pandemic/cost of living, is probably the most obvious way to go for many regional trunk routes

[22/04]

Loganair and Eastern are the only long term survivors in the UK regional airline sector, the latter arguably only because it is bank rolled. Everyone else has either gone bust or pulled - out the best example of the latter is BA, who gave up on it years ago. For some, (EasyJet) the UK domestic market is a very small part of the overall operation.

Loganair have survived by being very conservative- they will never over supply, they will just make a decent yield and offer a frequency on which they can sustain that probably around 2 -3 flights per day. They can always retreat to Bonnie Scotland and the subsidies available there.

Without any prospect of PSO routes Southampton will have to survive - by attracting airlines -as Teesside has arguably done or relying on operators believing they can make money. _ it's no good begging to airlines to come and do more.

[Albert Hall]

I wouldn't say Southampton can never have PSO routes. By virtue of the healthcare sector travel from the Channel Islands, both JER and GCI routes are borderline PSOs anyway and DFT has recently changed the rules so that not all PSOs which they support have to run to/from London. It's not beyond the realms of possibility that other regional routes could see PSOs in due time. The problem for SOU will be proximity to LHR on that argument - if there is a problem of any nature, which there may not be.

[davidjohnson6]

Why does JER need a formal PSO ? There are clearly airlines willing to provide flights on a commercial basis year round without specific route subsidy to many airports in mainland UK. JER in particular is big enough not to need the protectionism seen at GCI - and the competition between carriers prevents large scale monopoly pricing abuse.
Perhaps ACI *might* be able to justify a need for PSO though...

[Pain in the R's]

Reading back on a weeks worth of posts I have come to the conclusion that this thread is populated by an excess of fantasists and dreamers.

[Asturias56]

I think politically it would be hard fork out cash for Jersey flights - if they want them they can up their tax rate after all.

[Aero Mad]

Pain in the R's and davidjohnson6, while I would often agree with the sentiments, think you've misunderstood the specific point here. The reason that Albert Hall was saying that JER and GCI are 'borderline' PSOs isn't because he thinks they should be PSOs, it's because he's saying they already are. This alludes to the level of demand on the routes from tickets paid for by each island's Health department for islanders receiving treatment on the mainland.

SOU-ACI is already a PSO, funded by the States of Guernsey. The agreement isn't published but for a minimum of 2x flights per day on SOU-ACI and 4x flights per day (with the exception of a few winter weekends at 3x) on GCI-ACI, Aurigny is paid around £2m per year.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-guernsey-57575548

[SotonFlightpath]

Everyone seems very quick to forget this thing we had called a pandemic which changed working practices, changed the way in which much business takes place (on a quick-fire series of Teams or Zoom meetings instead of days out of the office on business travel) and the minor issue that we have a cost of living crisis going on which is impacting discretionary spend on all sorts of things from cinemas to air travel.

You cannot say that because Flybe carried X in 2019 on any given route, it should now be carrying Y today - it doesn't matter whether it's Loganair, easyJet or Timbuktu Airways as the operator. The world has changed. All of those factors have affected the demand for air travel in different ways on different routes, depending on what the customer base was for that route before the pandemic and now.

Even in Flybe's day their frequencies were up and down like a yo-yo. NCL-SOU was generally 3pd. EDI-SOU went between 4 and 6 and might even have hit 7 for a short time. MAN-SOU was generally 5 but at different times was 4 or 6. Does a 3pd Q400 back in 2019 translate into a 2pd E145 today to service the demand which is still there on the route? Quite possibly.

It's incredible how quick people are to forget about all of these factors when deciding what airlines should and shouldn't be doing! And if I was Air Baltic (which I'm not) then I'd have thought the possibility of setting up a UK AOC to fly some short domestic sectors with A220s would probably be somewhere at the bottom of my list of priorities, if not off the bottom of it completely.



The after effects of the Pandemic has certainly completely altered my travel patterns and those of most of my colleagues and clients. I regularly used flights from SOU to Newcastle, Manchester and Dublin but haven't travelled to any of these destinations on business for over four years, the rise of the widespread use of Teams and WhatsApp has completely taken away the need to travel for business in most cases. The days of nearly full 78-seat turboprops criss-crossing the country multiple times a day with business travellers has well and truly ended and I agree that the likely future of domestic air travel between regional centres (excluding London) will likely be just one or two flights a day, perhaps a few days a week, by the low-cost operators where they feel there is sufficient demand.

[tallaonejuliet]

Loganair and Eastern are the only long term survivors in the UK regional airline sector, the latter arguably only because it is bank rolled. Everyone else has either gone bust or pulled - out the best example of the latter is BA, who gave up on it years ago. For some, (EasyJet) the UK domestic market is a very small part of the overall operation.

Loganair have survived by being very conservative- they will never over supply, they will just make a decent yield and offer a frequency on which they can sustain that probably around 2 -3 flights per day. They can always retreat to Bonnie Scotland and the subsidies available there.

Without any prospect of PSO routes Southampton will have to survive - by attracting airlines -as Teesside has arguably done or relying on operators believing they can make money. _ it's no good begging to airlines to come and do more.

There is a perception of many that LM are bankrolled by the Scottish Government, they certainly aren't.
Barra, Tiree, Campbeltown, Western Isles link from Inverness and the Orkney inter-island services are the only subsidised PSO's.

[DC3 Dave]

There is a perception of many that LM are bankrolled by the Scottish Government, they certainly aren't.
Barra, Tiree, Campbeltown, Western Isles link from Inverness and the Orkney inter-island services are the only subsidised PSO's.

Not quite, there’s Heathrow to Derry and Dundee.

[tallaonejuliet]

Not quite, there’s Heathrow to Derry and Dundee.

Ahh, Dundee how could I forget. It's really funded by Lorraine Kelly if the truth be told. :)
Splitting hairs here, but Heathrow to Derry isn't Bonnie Scotland related.......

[Accura]

The after effects of the Pandemic has certainly completely altered my travel patterns and those of most of my colleagues and clients. I regularly used flights from SOU to Newcastle, Manchester and Dublin but haven't travelled to any of these destinations on business for over four years, the rise of the widespread use of Teams and WhatsApp has completely taken away the need to travel for business in most cases. The days of nearly full 78-seat turboprops criss-crossing the country multiple times a day with business travellers has well and truly ended and I agree that the likely future of domestic air travel between regional centres (excluding London) will likely be just one or two flights a day, perhaps a few days a week, by the low-cost operators where they feel there is sufficient demand.

While I agree it's certainly still suppressed, the trend at the moment is still moving in a direction that is getting closer to what we had pre-Covid - how close it gets remains to be seen. A lot of industry trade shows and conventions are only just starting to get re-established. Certainly in my sector (tech) B2B sales departments are desperate to get back face to face with potential customers so they can demonstrate their products. Presenteeism is well and truly back too. I completely agree though that demand probably won't get back to the levels we saw pre-Covid, so there has to be a happy halfway point.

With the MAN-SOU route, for the first 4 months of last year it was growing at an average of 134% year on year, until Eastern decided to ditch the route. That was based upon one flight per day. If Eastern had reached two flights each way per day (as they planned to before they abandoned it) I'm sure it would have continued to grow, with a service level that seems a fair compromise on what it was pre-Covid.

[Sotonsean]

Ahh, Dundee how could I forget. It's really funded by Lorraine Kelly if the truth be told. :)
Splitting hairs here, but Heathrow to Derry isn't Bonnie Scotland related.......

Splitting hairs here, but none of this as regards to PSOs is even "Bonnie Southampton related".

[tallaonejuliet]

Splitting hairs here, but none of this as regards to PSOs is even "Bonnie Southampton related".

Oooft, who's nicked your chips?
The basis of my post can be found in this very thread, lighten up Sean..

[fjencl]

Loganair CEO Hinkles leaves with board approval – Daily Business (dailybusinessgroup.co.uk) (https://dailybusinessgroup.co.uk/2024/01/loganair-ceo-hinkles-leaves-with-board-approval/)

[stewyb]

https://www.southamptonairport.com/news/media-centre/2024/gavin-williams-appointed-as-operations-director-at-southampton-airport/

[RW20]

Hopefully he can attract much needed Summer routes that have not materialised ,but are much needed for the airport long term survival

​​​
​​​​​​

​

[Sotonsean]

Hopefully he can attract much needed Summer routes that have not materialised ,but are much needed for the airport long term survival

​​​
​​​​​​

​

I see that the record is still broken. We are all in agreement but do we have to read the same thing from you over and over again 🤔 😕

[RW20]

I see that the record is still broken. We are all in agreement but do we have to read the same thing from you over and over again 🤔 😕
And you still continue to criticise without any constructive points

[Sotonsean]

And you still continue to criticise without any constructive points

It's not about constructive points as you keep going on about. It's the fact that you continuously post the same thing over and over again. New routes, airports survival, etc, etc. It's the second month of 2024 tomorrow and we're still reading the same comments from you as we did in the entirety of 2023.

As I stated, it's like a broken record and it's not constructive in any way just annoying.

[RW20]

As post 2828 states ,lighten up ! ,you seem to agitate other posters as well.
You might need one of the Easy Sun holidays to calm yourself!

[Sotonsean]

As post 2828 states ,lighten up ! ,you seem to agitate other posters as well.
You might need one of the Easy Sun holidays to calm yourself!

I'm pleased that you wrote "as well".

FYI....I prefer to use my avios with BA to go to more distant destinations than ever contemplating an "Easy Sun holiday".

On the Gatwick thread I usually write "who's next" as regards to new airline announcements.

I'm going to type this on the Southampton thread.

When RW20 types the same repetitive comments yet again and for the umpteenth time I'm going to write "when next".

I refer you to posts 2798 and 2799.

[rog747]

IMO an Airport Operations Director is not the Commercial Director.

The Commercial Director and their Team, are the people that should be actively seeking dialogue with the current and new airline business.
They should also be at the fore of the Advertising/Local Press and social media Teams, and in dialogue with local Travel Agents and Tour Operators.

An Ops Director is the person that makes sure the Airfield runs properly and legally, with all the relevant Agencies, CAA/ATC/AFS etc etc, and ensures the Contracts for the Ground and Ramp Handling Services are in situ with the Airlines to meet demand, and are all in order (and much more in dealing with the actual safe running of the Airport).

Re new SOU Routes and Adverts:
I have to say EasyJet Holidays have been running a TV advert on local television (Meridian) and on the big national channels too, constantly over the past few weeks,
mostly aired at Peak Viewing Times, but with no mention of the new Southampton Airport holiday routes.
The Ad has to be said is, bland and dull, and whoever signed this off for TV simply has no clue how to market summer holidays on TV.
TUI's TV Ad this year is only a little better, but again is uninspiring.

The snazzy and upbeat Jet2holidays TV advert wins hands down.
It makes one actually feel like looking at Jet2 after seeing their Ad and wanting a holiday.

IMO it's a great shame they (Jet2) did not want to take on TUI (and FR) at Bournemouth with a new Base, and give them all a run for their money.
Sadly Jet2 cannot get into SOU with the Boeing - If they had the A320Neos' right now then they would have seen off EasyJet and been in direct competition with TUI at BOH.
I like TUI and don't have a beef with them, but we do like ''choice''.

[B170ppl]

Surprised - as it was a first for me - to hear an advert for Southampton Airport on talkSPORT today; it mentioned both British Airways and EasyJet (new routes). TalkSPORT has 3.5m listeners per week (only the national BBC and LBC stations are higher) so it appears the airport marketing department are starting to do their thing (at last I hear some of you say). Of course the advertising needs to be expanded into a number of other areas, time will tell.....

[Rivet Joint]

All this talk of doom and gloom and needing new routes etc yet when good news is posted it’s conveniently ignored. Take the recent announcement that the AMS route is going 3 daily for example. How many replies did that get? Sad state of affairs on here.

[rog747]

Surprised - as it was a first for me - to hear an advert for Southampton Airport on talkSPORT today; it mentioned both British Airways and EasyJet (new routes). TalkSPORT has 3.5m listeners per week (only the national BBC and LBC stations are higher) so it appears the airport marketing department are starting to do their thing (at last I hear some of you say).
Of course the advertising needs to be expanded into a number of other areas, time will tell.....

Thanks for the heads up.
And yes, that's a move forward from SOU's Commercial and Media/Press Dept.

I for one do not listen to, nor are a Sports, or a Footie fan, nor are any of my Pals.
My nephews have Season Tickets at Spurs and at West Ham who live locally here in Dorset, and one in the East of the Meridian TV area (still a SOU catchment area)
I will ask them if they listen to TalkSport.
I know they listen to local Radio Wave 105 and Greatest Hits Radio (which was Wessex FM).
BBC Radio Solent is the BBC's local radio station serving Hampshire, Dorset and the Isle of Wight, and has a weekly audience of 204,000 listeners and a 4.2% share as of September 2023, but of course is not a Commercial Station with Ads.

I've had a root through the local rags The Southern Echo, The Hampshire Chronicle, plus The Bournemouth Daily Echo, and The Dorset Echo but there is little in the way of reporting nor any advertising of the new routes in the past few months. There are a couple of 'announcement' articles in Nov, and in Jan but it's all rather ''small''.
(No Press reports were found when searching in the Chronicle)

I popped into the 3 Travel Agents in Dorchester this week, and one in Westbourne (Poole BH4) and asked them what they knew about SOU's new routes.
They all knew about them but had not had any proper 'Agency Sales' nor Sales Rep promo's and feedback requests.

They would sell them, (both flights and holidays) but they do sell BOH EXT and BRS as their 1st options for Holidays, but 2 of them often sell the SOU KLM flights with long haul onward flights for some regular customers, and all have regulars for Loganair to NCL and GLA, plus other customers for BFS and DUB.
They do (of course) sell SOU for the Channel Islands flights and holidays (well, that's a no brainer)
The SOU-GVA winter Ski flights has had some local uptake here, but only if the BOH flights have been full, but the BA Chambery from SOU has been very popular.
They all miss the loss of Flybe's Verona (twice weekly summer) and to Salzburg (summer and winter) both from SOU.
KLM's 3rd daily flight was on their radar and posted on SOU's X and Facebook.

[Markushillman]

Credit goes to @SeanM1997 on X

But quoted from him below

Loganair are trimming many frequencies in Summer 2024 with Aberdeen-Oslo cut completely and reductions to Aberdeen-Manchester, Edinburgh-Exeter, Edinburgh-Southampton, Glasgow-Derry & Glasgow-Southampton among others

[MARKEYD]

As suspected with the arrival of EasyJet onto the domestic front something had to give

Looks like the Edinburgh service is now 4 flights a day was 5 and the Glasgow service which competes with EZY the route has been cut to 3 flights a day was 5 flights

[TCAS FAN]

Airport has achieved its target for this year of 750k and next year is 1m (83k monthly) so doable

From a recent discussion with AGS they indicated that 2023 passenger level was 787K, 2024 they are forecasting 1,026K. Their stated business break-even level is 1,200K.

[Ascupart]

From a recent discussion with AGS they indicated that 2023 passenger level was 787K

Hmm, it will be interesting to see how that tallies with the CAA figures once December's data is published. For reference, Jan-23 - Nov-23 the airport handled 694,029 passengers according to the CAA. Mind you, I'm beginning to think CAA data is a little sketchy so I would tend to believe the airport's figures.

2024 they are forecasting 1.026K. Their stated business break-even level is 1.200K.

I think you mean 'M' not 'K' 😉

[SWBKCB]

Hmm, it will be interesting to see how that tallies with the CAA figures once December's data is published. For reference, Jan-23 - Nov-23 the airport handled 694,029 passengers according to the CAA. Mind you, I'm beginning to think CAA data is a little sketchy so I would tend to believe the airport's figures.



The CAA data is provided by the airports. :ok:

[MidlandsWanderer]

The CAA data is provided by the airports. :ok:

Not any more it isn't. It's now provided by the airlines much to their annoyance! Has been for the past few years.

[rog747]

I want to fly up soon from (preferably) SOU to see an old Pal in NCL for a couple of days (taking small Cabin bag)

LM return price is around £360 (and from EXT, LM to NCL is £450)

EZY via BFS, is around £100-£120 return, and flying direct from BRS is from £29 each way.

BA using my Avios from LHR I can go for just a £1 in Club Europe (Lounge access, Hot Breakfast and includes hold luggage)

What to do!

[SWBKCB]

Not any more it isn't. It's now provided by the airlines much to their annoyance! Has been for the past few years.

The CAA say it is from the airports.

What is the source of UK airport data?
The Airport Authorities provide us with data that they receive from either Handling Agents or the Airlines themselves.

https://www.caa.co.uk/data-and-analysis/uk-aviation-market/airports/notes-and-faqs/

[Markushillman]

I want to fly up soon from (preferably) SOU to see an old Pal in NCL for a couple of days (taking small Cabin bag)

LM return price is around £360 (and from EXT, LM to NCL is £450)

EZY via BFS, is around £100-£120 return, and flying direct from BRS is from £29 each way.

BA using my Avios from LHR I can go for just a £1 in Club Europe (Lounge access, Hot Breakfast and includes hold luggage)

What to do!

One thing for sure don't use Loganair

[SWBKCB]

Depends how valuable your time is and how flexible you want to be.

[TCAS FAN]

Depends how valuable your time is and how flexible you want to be.

Totally agree. If I'm traveling on business I want to get out and back in a day and don't have to get up at silly o'clock to battle my way up/back the M3/M25. Mrs TCAS drops me/ picks me up at Parkway Station, so no drop-off changes!!!

At the end of the day what I pay is a justified business expense, accepted by HMRC as such.

LM cost more than Fly-Maybe did, but as efficiency is what I'm looking for I'll stick with LM,

[SouthernAlliance]

From a recent discussion with AGS they indicated that 2023 passenger level was 787K, 2024 they are forecasting 1,026K. Their stated business break-even level is 1,200K.

Sounds about right TCAS :ok:

[MidlandsWanderer]

The CAA say it is from the airports.

Used to be and was more reliable when it was.The CAA now ask the airlines to provide the data directly and have doen for at least 2 years (I was asked to provide the data directly to them from the last airline I worked for)

[SealinkBF]

I want to fly up soon from (preferably) SOU to see an old Pal in NCL for a couple of days (taking small Cabin bag)

LM return price is around £360 (and from EXT, LM to NCL is £450)

EZY via BFS, is around £100-£120 return, and flying direct from BRS is from £29 each way.

BA using my Avios from LHR I can go for just a £1 in Club Europe (Lounge access, Hot Breakfast and includes hold luggage)

What to do!

Don't use the Avios + £1 redemption, you are noy getting the best value. According to Head For Points who I defer to in all points knowledge

[rog747]

Many thanks for all of your comments and suggestions - I have now done a complete swerve in getting from SOU to NCL LOL !

Two Night Mini-Cruise to Newcastle from Southampton
28 Feb 2024 (2 nights on the ship) Fred. Olsen Cruises - MV Balmoral
How much --- £99 for a nice outside cabin, 2 nights on the ship, and all food.
The ship (https://68c8648dbe66747498d1-6027f91c84d2b73bebfc9b6bc4f4a0ac.ssl.cf3.rackcdn.com/63e6b6a8b0940627c4d108f9/BalmoralarrivingintoOldenNorwaymin.jpg)

Booked!

Coming back to LHR on my BA Avios.

[toon22]

A man/person after my own heart! Good luck with the weather though!

[SouthernAlliance]

Very brave taking on the North Sea in Feb!

[Sotonsean]

Very brave taking on the North Sea in Feb!

As a former Merchant Mariner, the North Sea in February is nothing compared to the North Atlantic during the same period. At least you have shelter along the Eastern coast compared with absolutely nothing mid-Atlantic.

Anyway good job Rog, enjoy your 2 nights on the Balmoral.

[inOban]

Actually the North Sea, being shallower, can generate very steep and confused seas while the open Atlantic has gives a more regular motion.

[Sotonsean]

Actually the North Sea, being shallower, can generate very steep and confused seas while the open Atlantic has gives a more regular motion.

Yeah well I have to agree with you there. Although I have to be honest with you I've not personally sailed the North Sea at this time of year compared to the North Atlantic.

But anyway we'd best not totally derail ourselves from the actual thread.

[SouthernAlliance]

Back on track indeed, all seems very quiet at the airport presently with no news apparent, not sure if that’s good or bad?

[DC3 Dave]

Many thanks for all of your comments and suggestions - I have now done a complete swerve in getting from SOU to NCL LOL !

Two Night Mini-Cruise to Newcastle from Southampton
28 Feb 2024 (2 nights on the ship) Fred. Olsen Cruises - MV Balmoral
How much --- £99 for a nice outside cabin, 2 nights on the ship, and all food.
The ship (https://68c8648dbe66747498d1-6027f91c84d2b73bebfc9b6bc4f4a0ac.ssl.cf3.rackcdn.com/63e6b6a8b0940627c4d108f9/BalmoralarrivingintoOldenNorwaymin.jpg)

Booked!

Coming back to LHR on my BA Avios.


£99! Are you sure you’ve booked the right MV Balmoral?


https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/700x510/f7e02037_bd90_4ea9_a4b0_2d1f7948b785_9366d2fcf92e007919b37ed e131595244362f9a3.jpeg

[Markushillman]

Credit to @SeanM1997 on X

Eastern shifting from Orly to Paris CDG from 31st March

[SKOJB]

Sensible move and will hopefully attract onward worldwide connections. Would also expect AF to take on this route in time

[Sotonsean]

Sensible move and will hopefully attract onward worldwide connections. Would also expect AF to take on this route in time

I totally agree with you 👍

Hopefully Air France will resume this route at some point in the future 😉

[cavokblues]

I'm intrigued by the suggestion this will attract onboard worldwide connections.

I've just had a look at several worldwide routes on several dates after the 31st March and the best option, each and everytime in terms of cost and time, is to go via Amsterdam with KLM.

Unless Air France start operating it with their own equipment, and / or put it on their website and price accordingly, with decent connections, I can't see this route attracting much in terms of worldwide connections?

Certainly most would either drive to Heathrow or go via Amsterdam rather than buying a separate Eastern ticket and then onward travel from CDG.

[SKOJB]

I'm intrigued by the suggestion this will attract onboard worldwide connections.

I've just had a look at several worldwide routes on several dates after the 31st March and the best option, each and everytime in terms of cost and time, is to go via Amsterdam with KLM.

Unless Air France start operating it with their own equipment, and / or put it on their website and price accordingly, with decent connections, I can't see this route attracting much in terms of worldwide connections?

Certainly most would either drive to Heathrow or go via Amsterdam rather than buying a separate Eastern ticket and then onward travel from CDG.

It is a codeshare with AF (assume like ORY it will be in their booking engine shortly) so it’s not impossible that a certain % of travellers will use this for onward departures through CDG

[cavokblues]

Then hopefully they get it in their booking system pronto.

Weird one though, as considering they're effectively the same airline, why would Air France / KLM potential look to potentially cannibalise the Amsterdam connection and dilute those yields and returns from connecting traffic?

[adfly]

Then hopefully they get it in their booking system pronto.

Weird one though, as considering they're effectively the same airline, why would Air France / KLM potential look to potentially canabolise the Amsterdam connection and dilute those yields and returns from connecting traffic?
In theory it could help the route if the codeshare is properly integrated. There could be a case where some connections are most efficient using a different hub in each direction - something like SOU-CDG-ORD then ORD-AMS-SOU. Additionally, there should be reasonable p2p demand from Southampton to Paris, it is far enough from London for most of the catchment that travelling to LGW/LHR for a 1hr flight is not that time efficient, nor travelling a similar time to get the Eurostar.

That being said, the route needs to operate reliably, else it won't work for anyone.

[Sotonsean]

Then hopefully they get it in their booking system pronto.

Weird one though, as considering they're effectively the same airline, why would Air France / KLM potential look to potentially canabolise the Amsterdam connection and dilute those yields and returns from connecting traffic?

I totally agree with you on all counts but regarding your last paragraph.

Air France via CDG could offer another hub connection from SOU plus destinations that are unserved by KLM via AMS.

Although SOU-CDG will have a certain amount of point to point traffic I'm certain that there's some demand for connecting with Air France at CDG.

On a plus side it would be great for SOU to have service from both Air France and KLM, just like in the past.

[davidjohnson6]

I totally agree with you on all counts but regarding your last paragraph.

Air France via CDG could offer another hub connection from SOU plus destinations that are unserved by KLM via AMS.

Although SOU-CDG will have a certain amount of point to point traffic I'm certain that there's some demand for connecting with Air France at CDG.

On a plus side it would be great for SOU to have service from both Air France and KLM, just like in the past.
Why would AF open a CDG-SOU route with their own metal when they are not operating CDG-BRS ? I know Easyjet is a formidable competitor, but there's presumably a lot more potential for Air France in Bristol than Southampton.

[SouthernAlliance]

Why would AF open a CDG-SOU route with their own metal when they are not operating CDG-BRS ? I know Easyjet is a formidable competitor, but there's presumably a lot more potential for Air France in Bristol than Southampton.

Think you have answered your own question. AF will not go up against EZY at BRS but may well try SOU without competition, big catchment on the south coast

[davidjohnson6]

In December 2023, CAA data says:
Bristol - Orly - 11,250 pax
Bristol - CDG - 27,159 pax
Southampton - Orly - 1,871 pax

Yes, Easyjet is a strong competitor... but there's a very big market for AF to tap in Bristol. Cardiff-Paris seems to be ending in late March and Lufthansa recently dropped Bristol, making Bristol a lot more appealing for AF-KL

[rog747]

Well, KLM service, as you know has now got up to 3 daily flights from SOU to AMS, and I just saw your post on our Bristol thread too re the ''No AF to CDG'' still.

I too am surprised that AF are not picking up again from flying the UK Regionals to CDG, so are the Alliance concentrating on the AMS Interline traffic rather than via Paris?
I do not know the answer to the one sorry.

I do use the SOU-AMS KLM connection as my ''go to'' choice if I can get a good connection (I have done NBO ATH and VCE this way in the recent past)
Plus, I can use, or earn Virgin Atlantic Flying Club Miles on both KLM and AF.

[Ascupart]

Now that December 2023 data is available from the CAA it's interesting to compare Southampton passenger numbers to similar sized airports
https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/925x535/pax_cfbf80fe939b7ff1e6604f949320147cb37490e6.png
Total pax. Note Sept 2017 is missing from CAA data

Pre-pandemic we see the summer peak was trending down for Southampton but up for Cardiff. Southampton has the most passengers during the winter. Bournemouth is doing better now than it was pre-pandemic, leading the pack for 2023:

https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/948x711/totals_a1d50081f21e121e986793fe9a6b5ba6c2984107.png
Total pax


Filtering to just charter traffic shows how Southampton & Inverness differ from Cardiff & Bournemouth

https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/922x539/charter_ffa6c09bea2e25f4cfe1e10edec9f2cd4d5590a9.png

Charter pax

Which is illustrated better here:

https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/938x490/type_6e6a70ca73ea25f822566e1e521c4d33680e1c86.png

Pax by type - Southampton and Inverness are mostly scheduled UK with little or no charter flights

2024 will be very interesting...

[MidlandsWanderer]

Remember that AF/KL do their planning in conjunction and would be loathe to dilute connecting traffic through AMS in favour of CDG unless there was a good reason to do so that would benefit the group.

[Ascupart]

Minutes from the February Eastleigh Airport Consultative Committee are available (https://meetings.eastleigh.gov.uk/ieListDocuments.aspx?CId=267&MId=7119&Ver=4).

The Head of Planning and Development for AGS Airports Ltd gave his report (appended to minutes), and reported that:

· There had been no safety issues or incidents reported in the past four months.
· Passenger numbers were forecast to be 1,026k for 2024.
· EasyJet commenced Glasgow and Belfast routes, in addition to continuing Geneva (up to 24 flights per week).
· BA operated a limited service to Bergerac over the Christmas period.
· EasyJet announced Palma, Alicante, and Faro for summer 2024.
· KLM would introduce a third daily rotation to Amsterdam at the end of March 2024.

John Lauwerys asked if, as per the evidence submitted through the planning stage for the runway extension, the airport would continue to run at a loss until passenger numbers reached 1.2 million.

The Head of Planning and Development for AGS Airports Ltd confirmed this continued to be the case.

[SouthernAlliance]

Minutes from the February Eastleigh Airport Consultative Committee are available (https://meetings.eastleigh.gov.uk/ieListDocuments.aspx?CId=267&MId=7119&Ver=4).

Seems KLM are the biggest culprits deviating from the official flight path off R20, rapped knuckles and a gentle reminder for them!

[01475]

lots of really interesting data

Fascinating work - thanks!

The charter traffic dichotomy is really interesting, as is the difference in seasonality . Superficially it's surprising that neither has attracted inbound charters for highlands tourism / cruises.

I started to look up Southampton cruise numbers thinking that they must be lower than I was expecting. In fact 2022 was a very respectable 1.76m, which is amost very almost immediate pre covid levels (2019 was a small fall on 2018 anyway) and the third highest in the last 20 years. It appears to be confirmed that either cruise traffic is a very insignificant contributor to SOU numbers generally (or that everything else has fallen off a cliff, which is less likely).

[Ascupart]

Air passenger flights - Southampton has more flights:
https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1194x633/flights_3175032484fc60428aec0d1b2dd9a4bb283e5fa9.png
Air Pax flights. Note Sept 2017 is missing from CAA data


Dividing Air Pax (Table 8 CAA data) by Air Pax Movements (Table 6):
https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1195x553/paxperflights_8673abe5444983f7a568bf55d17fff71654f615e.png
(Note: excludes Sept 2017 data).

[Rivet Joint]

Looks like the Hampshire & Isle of Wight air ambulance want to open a new base at the airport. Could be a nice extra revenue stream for the airport if approved. I cannot immediately see the location but somewhere in the south western corner.

it would be great if the development land in the north east corner could be used for for airport related stuff, like more private jet parking, maintenance, painting etc. perhaps even manufacture of aircraft or parts. It will have free port status which should be attractive to potential occupiers. No doubt it will end up being yet more metal sheds for haulage companies though.

[Sotonsean]

Looks like the Hampshire & Isle of Wight air ambulance want to open a new base at the airport. Could be a nice extra revenue stream for the airport if approved. I cannot immediately see the location but somewhere in the south western corner.

it would be great if the development land in the north east corner could be used for for airport related stuff, like more private jet parking, maintenance, painting etc. perhaps even manufacture of aircraft or parts. It will have free port status which should be attractive to potential occupiers. No doubt it will end up being yet more metal sheds for haulage companies though.

The image shows the proposed location for the Hampshire & Isle of Wight air ambulance base "near" to Southampton Airport.

https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/201x251/images_jpeg_9b9e86beef704c16e292ff41a5afc4782d5e74f6.jpg

I totally agree with your comments regarding the development of the north east corner.

[Pain in the R's]

Looks like the Hampshire & Isle of Wight air ambulance want to open a new base at the airport. Could be a nice extra revenue stream for the airport if approved.

Rather mean if SOU charges a charity that saves lives landing fees

[TCAS FAN]

……..
it would be great if the development land in the north east corner could be used for for airport related stuff, like more private jet parking, maintenance, painting etc. perhaps even manufacture of aircraft or parts. It will have free port status which should be attractive to potential occupiers. No doubt it will end up being yet more metal sheds for haulage companies though.

The historical problem remains, how is road access going to be economically viable? That aside, unless NATS are going to shortly de-commission the “SAM” VORDME, safeguarding requirements for it could significantly limit any building development.

[eglnyt]

NATS would love to de-commission the VOR tomorrow, it isn't one that is being retained in their plans and they've been trying to switch it off for the last few years. The only procedures which it is needed for are the Airport's so as soon as they make alternative arrangements it can be withdrawn. It will of course have to be safeguarded whilst it is still operational.

[SouthernAlliance]

Marlhill Copse goes before the planning committee this week, officer recommends refusal for height reduction to 25 trees but approves the felling of 14 trees including large pines. Will be interesting to hear the outcome

[Rivet Joint]

The historical problem remains, how is road access going to be economically viable? That aside, unless NATS are going to shortly de-commission the “SAM” VORDME, safeguarding requirements for it could significantly limit any building development.

I’m sure that’s been thought about. There are actually two parcels of land in this part of the free port. The other appears to be where the railway works currently are so perhaps the road will come through there. The tax cuts will make it viable.

Speaking of the Paris flight Eastern cancelled the flight on Friday, Sunday and today flight. Operating 2 out of 5 days isn’t too bad I guess! Oh and there were planes and crews for the football charters. Surely airlines have to be accountable for behaviour like this? Those passengers are going to struggle to get their money back from Eastern, hotels etc. personally think they should be banned from operating scheduled flights. And that’s before we talk about their woeful performance at charter ops. TAP and ITA can speak on that and now Aurigny are learning the hard way.

[Dispatchdude]

Eastern Airways is not run as a business, not now, it's 1 man's vanity showing I own an airline and I do not care how it is run or what I do.

The constant mishmash of aircraft types in low numbers, the falling out with Bristows, the stupid plan with flybe.

This airline only survives from his other business ventures which actually make money and are run properly.

[TCAS FAN]

NATS would love to de-commission the VOR tomorrow, it isn't one that is being retained in their plans and they've been trying to switch it off for the last few years. The only procedures which it is needed for are the Airport's so as soon as they make alternative arrangements it can be withdrawn. It will of course have to be safeguarded whilst it is still operational.

In the case of RWY 02 alternative arrangements have already been made with provision of a RNP IAP plus NDB/DME IAP. The current VOR/DME IAP could therefore be dispensed with.

In the case of RWY 20 ILS is the primary IAP with NDB/DME as a back up. The VOR/DME IAP has always been next to useless as it cannot be flown by CAT C aircraft. From what I recollect from past instrument procedure design work is due to the position of the VOR/DME site in relation to the RWY 20 centreline.

Provision of a RNP IAP for RWY 20 is at present impracticable due to controlled airspace constraints which would result in aircraft leaving controlled airspace when flying the procedure, as is already the case with the NDBDME and VOR/DME IAPs. This problem is not going away for at least 2-3 years (or more) until the current tortuously slow Airspace Change Process finally comes to a conclusion. That's assuming that SOU's highly paid consultants get the final airspace design right to ensure all aircraft remain within controlled airspace when flying IAPs for RWY 20.

NATS are not known for their generosity so somewhat doubt that the VOR/DME is being retained for purely IAPs at SOU when, from that noted above, there is no significant operational advantage for SOU. Or possibly NATS are taking money from SOU to keep it running without SOU realising this?

[SouthernAlliance]

Marlhill Copse goes before the planning committee this week, officer recommends refusal for height reduction to 25 trees but approves the felling of 14 trees including large pines. Will be interesting to hear the outcome

As proposed, crown reduction was refused and felling of 14 trees approved

[Sharklet_321]

What implications, if any, does this have on the R/W performance issues?

[SouthernAlliance]

What implications, if any, does this have on the R/W performance issues?

not sure but they are felling 3 tall pines that I assume are affecting obstacle clearance. Sounds like any further works required will need to go via central government for approval and to circumnavigate TPO’s

[TCAS FAN]

What implications, if any, does this have on the R/W performance issues?

That cannot be quantified until SOU determine if the permitted limited scope of work will provide any significant performance improvements to make the project financially viable.. If it does, tree felling to be completed, airport's surveyor's summoned to carry out a check survey, then submit data to NATS AIM for production of new Type A Charts. If this all happens would estimate mid to late summer before the charts are published.

[SouthernAlliance]

That cannot be quantified until SOU determine if the permitted limited scope of work will provide any significant performance improvements to make the project financially viable.. If it does, tree felling to be completed, airport's surveyor's summoned to carry out a check survey, then submit data to NATS AIM for production of new Type A Charts. If this all happens would estimate mid to late summer before the charts are published.

if indeed any performance benefits come from this, you would imagine the airport would want this available for EZY etc to use for this coming summer season

[RW20]

Why would SOU continue with the limited tree topping if it wasn't significant for RW20 take off obstacles ?

[Ascupart]

Why would SOU continue with the limited tree topping if it wasn't significant for RW20 take off obstacles ?
There were actually two planning applications (https://www.southampton.gov.uk/moderngov/ieListDocuments.aspx?MId=7049&x=1) regarding the copse considered at the meeting - one to reduce the height of trees (for safety of aircraft) and the other to fell diseased/damaged trees that could presumably be hazardous to users of the copse or local houses.

There is a recording of the meeting (https://teams.microsoft.com/l/meetup-join/19%3ameeting_MWYzOGQzZGEtNTM0Yi00MmJmLWI1YTMtMDAzNDhiYjdjOGQ 0%40thread.v2/0?context=%7B%22Tid%22%3A%223a3b079a-64c0-471c-92e5-4e919e307ca8%22%2C%22Oid%22%3A%22cb426819-38ce-43b9-9b1b-98bc61f24e45%22%2C%22IsBroadcastMeeting%22%3Atrue%2C%22role% 22%3A%22a%22%7D&btype=a&role=a) but the sound quality is rather poor so it's probably best to wait for the minutes.

[jmdavies86]

Eastern Airways is not run as a business...

Agreed; I was considering to use them for sub-charter/lease options to launch some trial flights, however I'm still waiting for them to provide me with further information/quote and have pretty much given up on them now.

Also, there's a rumour of a possible attempt of Flybe 3.0 (https://www.flybe.com/) over on the Flybe thread...

Flybe website now showing a purple cover screen and the original logo of the MK1 company, with administration enquiries being redirected to Interpath's own site. Surely not another round of this. An administration report is due in the next few days if I understand correctly.

If this is indeed confirmed, I wonder whether SOU (AGS Airports) would be likely to welcome them back, and if so, what route(s) might they be considering to offer if they are/did return...?!

[willy wombat]

Flybe 3 are to provide feeder services for Global International Airlines Gatwick New York scheduled services.

[rog747]

if indeed any performance benefits come from this, you would imagine the airport would want this available for EZY etc to use for this coming summer season

Surely the 164m Runway Extension, and any other previously limiting Airfield parameters are already now sufficient and safe for EasyJet to operate their A320's on the planned summer series of flights to Palma, Faro, and Alicante without any undue Payload limits?


I was going to ask TCAS FAN the same Q as asked above by Sharklet_321
''What implications, if any, does this (The Tree Felling) have on the RWY 20 performance issues ?''

So,
my Q to TCAS FAN is:
Would this tree work be a factor in improvements to possibly permit loaded 737-800/737M-8 operations in the future?
We know the runway length and the width are OK for the Type, but the limits for such 737 Ops at SOU currently are, I believe, the Approach and Obstacle/clearway issues for arrivals and departures on RWY 20.
Is that so?
Thanks in advance....

[055166k]

Just turned up at Amsterdam to find KL919 cancelled this afternoon. Someone mentioned strong winds........the 1255Z metar gives 160/13 knots. Loads of runways all over the place....better luck tomorrow (hopefully). Is this just an excuse???

[Markushillman]

Just turned up at Amsterdam to find KL919 cancelled this afternoon. Someone mentioned strong winds........the 1255Z metar gives 160/13 knots. Loads of runways all over the place....better luck tomorrow (hopefully). Is this just an excuse???

Nope no excuse, winds expected to become quite severe for a time. However you do seem to be a very unlucky few

[rog747]

Just turned up at Amsterdam to find KL919 cancelled this afternoon. Someone mentioned strong winds........the 1255Z metar gives 160/13 knots. Loads of runways all over the place....better luck tomorrow (hopefully). Is this just an excuse???

is that winds there, or here (SOU) ?

If it's the weather here, and you really want to get home tonight, then you could ask them to reroute you to LHR LCY or BRS and they will pay for a Taxi home...

If the problem is there then they will HOTAC you...

[055166k]

Thanks all! Winds at AMS say KLM. Reducing flight numbers to compensate. Just the luck of the draw....1525Z metar gives 160/17 knots......forecast worse later. We'll hotel here and take the KL0915 tomorrow option. Regards.

[TCAS FAN]

Thanks all! Winds at AMS say KLM. Reducing flight numbers to compensate. Just the luck of the draw....1525Z metar gives 160/17 knots......forecast worse later. We'll hotel here and take the KL0915 tomorrow option. Regards.
Hopefully KLM accommodating and feeding you. If you are staying at the airport Hilton would appreciate if you would PM me with your opinion of it.

[055166k]

Them---1. Me----0. AMS wind now 170/30gust42 knots. 1800Z. Good call KLM. Bring back the Netherlines Jetstreams.......they could handle that.

[Albert Hall]

It's not a case of the individual aircraft being able to handle the crosswind limits, but of ATC capacity at the airport being reduced due to increased separation for bad weather. If you had 1,000 movements planned at Amsterdam today and ATC can only handle 800 then 200 flights have to be cancelled and regrettably one of them is the Southampton flight.

Going back to the rest of the thread, I'm led to believe that the A320 will have performance limitations at Southampton. It all comes down to runway surface, temperature and QNH as to whether those limitations will be operationally restrictive on any given day for a flight to Alicante, Palma or wherever else. Reducing the height of the trees so that they are no longer limiting obstacles will make the A320 performance restrictions less likely to be encountered than if they remain in place. So (for example) you might have a 20% chance of a performance restriction with the trees which drops to an acceptable 5% chance if the trees are lopped.

And Flybe 3.0? It's beginning to shape up as though Flybe 3.0 is very much in the making, although with a different name (not as green as it sounds) and a different aircraft type (ATR72). It has all the hallmarks of an airline trying to find a gap in the market in need of filling, and the chances of that being profitable are next to nil, from all I can see.

[fjencl]

(Quote)
And Flybe 3.0? It's beginning to shape up as though Flybe 3.0 is very much in the making, although with a different name (not as green as it sounds) and a different aircraft type (ATR72). It has all the hallmarks of an airline trying to find a gap in the market in need of filling, and the chances of that being profitable are next to nil, from all I can see.

Only mention of a route so far on the web I could see was Edinburgh - Southampton - Edinburgh, unless anybody else found anything different.

[The Nutts Mutts]

Ecojet?

[055166k]

CAR PARK ALERT. FIFTY POUND "overstay" penalty if your flight is delayed. Afternoon KLM cancelled due weather at Amsterdam.........rebooked by KLM onto next morning's flight. Car park booking expired 2300 22nd Feb........landed 23rd Feb 0900......£50......yes!!!!!.......£50 penalty.

[SouthernAlliance]

CAR PARK ALERT. FIFTY POUND "overstay" penalty if your flight is delayed. Afternoon KLM cancelled due weather at Amsterdam.........rebooked by KLM onto next morning's flight. Car park booking expired 2300 22nd Feb........landed 23rd Feb 0900......£50......yes!!!!!.......£50 penalty.

sure you can claim back as part of cancelled departure

[fjencl]

Ecojet?
Yes thats correct from what i can gather.

[055166k]

sure you can claim back as part of cancelled departure
Is that the answer...."claim it back". No wonder the car park is so empty. Top floor not even used these days!!! I can't get over the £50 penalty for an unplanned delayed flight overstay after a full week parking booking.......for just a few night-time hours. Shame. Here is an idea for the Airport people.....optional £5 per booking overstay insurance. It would help OAPs like me.

[eglnyt]

In the case of RWY 02 alternative arrangements have already been made with provision of a RNP IAP plus NDB/DME IAP. The current VOR/DME IAP could therefore be dispensed with.

In the case of RWY 20 ILS is the primary IAP with NDB/DME as a back up. The VOR/DME IAP has always been next to useless as it cannot be flown by CAT C aircraft. From what I recollect from past instrument procedure design work is due to the position of the VOR/DME site in relation to the RWY 20 centreline.

Provision of a RNP IAP for RWY 20 is at present impracticable due to controlled airspace constraints which would result in aircraft leaving controlled airspace when flying the procedure, as is already the case with the NDBDME and VOR/DME IAPs. This problem is not going away for at least 2-3 years (or more) until the current tortuously slow Airspace Change Process finally comes to a conclusion. That's assuming that SOU's highly paid consultants get the final airspace design right to ensure all aircraft remain within controlled airspace when flying IAPs for RWY 20.

NATS are not known for their generosity so somewhat doubt that the VOR/DME is being retained for purely IAPs at SOU when, from that noted above, there is no significant operational advantage for SOU. Or possibly NATS are taking money from SOU to keep it running without SOU realising this?

NATS removed all the non-airport dependencies from SAM VOR some time ago. Whether or not the procedures have any worth or could be dispensed with is a matter for the airport and currently they are still extant. Previously NATS had informed all airports with similar procedures that if they wished to retain the use of the VOR after December 2022 they would be required to enter into a "commercial" agreement with NATS to do so. That presumably means pay for the privilege. Whether or not that December 2022 deadline was adhered to, the original notification was pre-pandemic, or SOU has a commercial agreement I don't know. The VORs are operated by the regulated part of NATS which isn't allowed to subsidise the bit that runs ATC at airports so any agreement would need to be on the same terms as offered to other Airports where NATS doesn't provide the ATC service. There is something called RNAV substitution whereby airports can retain the procedures in the absence of the VOR itself but the SOU procedures aren't marked in the way required if that was the case.

Even with the VOR removed the DME might remain until the programme to rationalise DME does something with it. The VOR rationalisation programme started in 2008 and still hasn't removed most of the VORs so I would expect the DME might still be there for some time. DME safeguarding requirements aren't quite so onerous as those for VOR though.

[SWBKCB]

Is that the answer...."claim it back". No wonder the car park is so empty. Top floor not even used these days!!! I can't get over the £50 penalty for an unplanned delayed flight overstay after a full week parking booking.......for just a few night-time hours. Shame. Here is an idea for the Airport people.....optional £5 per booking overstay insurance. It would help OAPs like me.

How do the car par operators (is it the airport?) know why you didn't meet the conditions of your booking?

[TCAS FAN]

Surely the 164m Runway Extension, and any other previously limiting Airfield parameters are already now sufficient and safe for EasyJet to operate their A320's on the planned summer series of flights to Palma, Faro, and Alicante without any undue Payload limits?


I was going to ask TCAS FAN the same Q as asked above by Sharklet_321
''What implications, if any, does this (The Tree Felling) have on the RWY 20 performance issues ?''

So,
my Q to TCAS FAN is:
Would this tree work be a factor in improvements to possibly permit loaded 737-800/737M-8 operations in the future?
We know the runway length and the width are OK for the Type, but the limits for such 737 Ops at SOU currently are, I believe, the Approach and Obstacle/clearway issues for arrivals and departures on RWY 20.
Is that so?
Thanks in advance....Firstly I am somewhat flattered that you have confidence in my technical expertise. While I am not qualified to provide a definitive answer in respect of take-off performance I will attempt to provide some insight into the current performance limiting obstacle situation.

In respect of obstacles that impact RWY 20 approaches, from what I recollect, surprisingly the large rail shed south of Campbell Road, not the one north of it, limits the OCH and also requires displacement of the RWY 20 threshold. If this were to be removed it is probable that the OCH could be lowered by a minimal amount (few feet) but reduction of the distance that RWY 20 is displaced could be possible to increase the 20 LDA. This would require modifying the approach lighting, moving the PAPI and ILS GP, which together may make it not financially viable for any increased LDA realised.

ILS CAT 2 on RWY 20 would require removal of the previously mentioned shed, removal of the railyard south of Campbell Road, together with possibly reduction of height of the rail shed north of Campbell Road and extension of the approach lighting. All considered, CAT 2 probably not a financially viable option for the reduction of OCH by about 100 FT.

The minimum extension of the approach lighting system required would be 720 metres which would take it past the rail shed north of Campbell Road. So seriously doubt that this is ever going to happen.

More relevant for bad weather ops, ie fog, is the current RVR minima for an ILS approach. Best case for the CAT I ILS that SOU has would be RVR 550 metres. This only attainable if 720 metres or greater approach lighting is available. With the current 434 metres of lighting and the current OCH a RVR minima of 700 metres is possible.

What SOU can provide for approach minima, while not ideal, is obviously acceptable to operators who are naturally aware of an increased risk of diversion if fog prevails. They have been very lucky this winter.

SOU has the advantage of a standby CAT III airport just down the road which can normally accommodate diversions, and it doesn’t cost them a penny for this facility!!!!

You mention “loaded” in respect of 737-800/737M-8, by this I assume you mean fully loaded, ie max take-off mass (MTOM), the answer is no. A fully laden B737-800 requires around 2300 metres TORA, whereas an A320neo requires around 1951 metres.

Similar to SEN, SOU is never going to accommodate either aircraft at MTOM, but can still provide enough TORA/TODA to accommodate many economically viable routes at take-off eights less than MTOM.

The Marhill Copse trees still often have an impact on take-off performance. The runway extension has improved this by being able to start the take-off roll 164 metres further north away from it. I however suspect that there is still an impact, albeit less than the pre-extension runway.

In order to optimise take-off weights, as mentioned in an earlier post of mine, the icing on the cake would be the extension plus reduction of many trees in Marhill Copse.
Its now a waiting game to see what, if any, impact on take-off performance the removal of the 14 trees reported by SouthernAlliance will have, if it goes ahead. Assuming the felling takes place imminently, as mentioned in my post # 2839, its going to mid/late summer before a new Type A chart is published. Until this happens aircraft operators cannot quantify the impact on take-off weights.

[Rivet Joint]

Flybe 3 are to provide feeder services for Global International Airlines Gatwick New York scheduled services.

Bit early for April fools. This is a complete non starter. Both airlines are just vessels to boost some egos and will never operate.

For a start huge long standing and respected airlines are phasing out the A380 as it’s too expensive to operate yet one individual somewhere with a paper airline thinks he can operate them on possibly the most competitive route in the world?

As for flybe mk3 all the q400s are pretty much all spoken for and it’s hard enough to get parts for ATRs let alone find spare ones that are operable. Ask LM.

Interestingly the BHD route saw a 12% increase in December to 7,080 passengers despite EZY operating to BFS with 2,638. Proof that EZY doesn’t always take passengers away from other carriers?

Dublin also saw a 29% increase to 6,070. Great figures for Emerald and showing the value of using 70+ seater regional aircraft like BE use to. It’s a real shame LM use old 50 seater jets on their SOU routes. I bet they are missing out on passengers especially as those aircraft mean the tickets have to be expensive. Emerald’s prices are pretty reasonable.

[RW20]

Firstly I am somewhat flattered that you have confidence in my technical expertise. While I am not qualified to provide a definitive answer in respect of take-off performance I will attempt to provide some insight into the current performance limiting obstacle situation.

In respect of obstacles that impact RWY 20 approaches, from what I recollect, surprisingly the large rail shed south of Campbell Road, not the one north of it, limits the OCH and also requires displacement of the RWY 20 threshold. If this were to be removed it is probable that the OCH could be lowered by a minimal amount (few feet) but reduction of the distance that RWY 20 is displaced could be possible to increase the 20 LDA. This would require modifying the approach lighting, moving the PAPI and ILS GP, which together may make it not financially viable for any increased LDA realised.

ILS CAT 2 on RWY 20 would require removal of the previously mentioned shed, removal of the railyard south of Campbell Road, together with possibly reduction of height of the rail shed north of Campbell Road and extension of the approach lighting. All considered, CAT 2 probably not a financially viable option for the reduction of OCH by about 100 FT.

The minimum extension of the approach lighting system required would be 720 metres which would take it past the rail shed north of Campbell Road. So seriously doubt that this is ever going to happen.

More relevant for bad weather ops, ie fog, is the current RVR minima for an ILS approach. Best case for the CAT I ILS that SOU has would be RVR 550 metres. This only attainable if 720 metres or greater approach lighting is available. With the current 434 metres of lighting and the current OCH a RVR minima of 700 metres is possible.

What SOU can provide for approach minima, while not ideal, is obviously acceptable to operators who are naturally aware of an increased risk of diversion if fog prevails. They have been very lucky this winter.

SOU has the advantage of a standby CAT III airport just down the road which can normally accommodate diversions, and it doesn’t cost them a penny for this facility!!!!

You mention “loaded” in respect of 737-800/737M-8, by this I assume you mean fully loaded, ie max take-off mass (MTOM), the answer is no. A fully laden B737-800 requires around 2300 metres TORA, whereas an A320neo requires around 1951 metres.

Similar to SEN, SOU is never going to accommodate either aircraft at MTOM, but can still provide enough TORA/TODA to accommodate many economically viable routes at take-off eights less than MTOM.

The Marhill Copse trees still often have an impact on take-off performance. The runway extension has improved this by being able to start the take-off roll 164 metres further north away from it. I however suspect that there is still an impact, albeit less than the pre-extension runway.

In order to optimise take-off weights, as mentioned in an earlier post of mine, the icing on the cake would be the extension plus reduction of many trees in Marhill Copse.
Its now a waiting game to see what, if any, impact on take-off performance the removal of the 14 trees reported by SouthernAlliance will have, if it goes ahead. Assuming the felling takes place imminently, as mentioned in my post # 2839, its going to mid/late summer before a new Type A chart is published. Until this happens aircraft operators cannot quantify the impact on take-off weights.
Excellent summary TCAS FAN, so at present​​​​ 738 operations are not viable untill at least Marhill Copse trees are lopped/or felled?
​​​​​

[SotonFlightpath]

Certainly no chance of any of the railway works, sheds or infrastructure being relocated or removed as the railway works and depot has seen a big upturn in business over the last few years and is continuing to expands its activities.

[rog747]

Excellent summary TCAS FAN, so at present​​​​ 738 operations are not viable until at least Marhill Copse trees are lopped/or felled?
​​​​​

Yes, indeed a superb response from TCAS FAN, my sincere thanks.

it seems clear from TCAS FAN's excellent explanation to my question it maybe possible to have future 737-800 operations if all or most of the Parameters outlined in the answer are implemented (which would be a long way off, and expensive).
Some 738 operations could maybe then be possible, but only if such an operator felt it was to safe to do so, but I would think we would be looking at much shorter routes which do not fit with the HGW loads that TUI etc operate at.
It is pretty clear that this Type of aircraft still would not be able operate to the kind of loadings, and fly to the holiday destinations that TUI and Jet2 for instance, operate to.
Plus, IMO I don't think Ryanair would ever fancy SOU anyway, due to the diversion risks and lack of NAVAids.

Where's a nice Boeing 757 when you need them....LOL
SOU-Tenerife - yes no problem - load it up and off we go.

[GrahamK]

I'm sure certain posters will be pleased to see Loganair reducing flights to SOU from EDI, GLA and NCL this summer

[GAXLN]

I'm sure certain posters will be pleased to see Loganair reducing flights to SOU from EDI, GLA and NCL this summer

I wonder if this is related to Loganair finding it difficult to retain crew. See the Loganair thread which suggests they are short of crew for S24. They are a great airline providing many with their first flying job, but this must make them susceptible to their flight crew receiving job offers from bigger airlines flying larger aircraft.

[Markushillman]

I'm sure certain posters will be pleased to see Loganair reducing flights to SOU from EDI, GLA and NCL this summer

Already posted about that at the beginning of Feb, old news

[rog747]

Many thanks for all of your comments and suggestions - I have now done a complete swerve in getting from SOU to NCL LOL !

Two Night Mini-Cruise to Newcastle from Southampton
28 Feb 2024 (2 nights on the ship) Fred. Olsen Cruises - MV Balmoral
How much --- £99 for a nice outside cabin, 2 nights on the ship, and all food.
The ship (https://68c8648dbe66747498d1-6027f91c84d2b73bebfc9b6bc4f4a0ac.ssl.cf3.rackcdn.com/63e6b6a8b0940627c4d108f9/BalmoralarrivingintoOldenNorwaymin.jpg)

Booked!

Coming back to LHR on my BA Avios.


The Fred Olsen line have cancelled my trip and the ship is sailing empty
This is due to a deep clean needed because of a gastro ENT. Bug

Never mind

They've offered me a free trip to Liverpool in April

[Ascupart]

Interview with AGS Airport's Retail Director (https://moodiedavittreport.com/interview-ags-airports-commercial-lead-tom-hack-on-his-new-challenge/)

“We are rebuilding the passenger volumes and will see a shift in airline mix, delivering different passenger and infrastructure needs. We need to ensure we are catering to the unique demographics at the airport, where we are undertaking qualitative insights work to really understand the changing passenger needs.”

Unique demographics?

[MidlandsWanderer]

Sounds like he's swallowed "An idiots guide to Marketing"

[SKOJB]

All this corporate talk but what’s required are new routes. Airport needs to start finding some fresh destinations and not just regurgitating existing with incumbent airlines.

[Pain in the R's]

It seems clear that for the 2024 summer season it was hardly worth the cost, time and effort of building the runway extension. Very disappointing after all the expectations on this thread of a new beginning.

[rog747]

It seems clear that for the 2024 summer season it was hardly worth the cost and effort of building the runway extension. Very disappointing.

Really?
How can you say that, Pain in the R's...

We've got the 3 new summer leisure routes from Easyjet ALC PMI and FAO - maybe more to come...
The 186 seat Airbus A320 needs that 164m, so there is some comfort to take so far.

It's a start in a very difficult and economical climate, also with escalating travel issues possible to the Eastern Med destinations.
So to have an extra market for Spain and Portugal maybe fruitful.

[cavokblues]

New destinations are welcome but the frequency of them is underwhelming.

[vectisman]

This really is the most negative thread on these forums! For some on here the operator can do no right. Southampton is a small regional airport that considering the economic situation
isn't doing too badly. You cannot just conjure up passengers and destinations and ignore economic reality. Hopefully some of you with all the 'right' answers will be applying for jobs on the airport management team!
As for the runway extension it is a long term investment. Of course on here it would have always been criticised for either going ahead or cancelling!

[stewyb]

The runway extension wasn’t built with 2024 solely in mind and instead an investment for many years to come. I think it is fairly obvious that the way forward lies very favourably with easyJet and this summers med routes are hopefully a flavour of more to come with increased frequencies. If all goes well then we can be expect to see them adding additional routes hence forth. GLA/BFS has in the main operated well for them and loads have been strong, I only wish they would take on MAN also. It seems as though more investment at the airport is going in to make the customer experience even better and hopefully the new Ops Dir will hit the ground running. A lot to look forward to over the next few years and think we need to stay patient, it is a great little airport that I have no doubt will improve and grow once again!

[cavokblues]

The runway extension wasn’t built with 2024 solely in mind and instead an investment for many years to come. I think it is fairly obvious that the way forward lies very favourably with easyJet and this summers med routes are hopefully a flavour of more to come with increased frequencies. If all goes well then we can be expect to see them adding additional routes hence forth. GLA/BFS has in the main operated well for them and loads have been strong, I only wish they would take on MAN also. It seems as though more investment at the airport is going in to make the customer experience even better and hopefully the new Ops Dir will hit the ground running. A lot to look forward to over the next few years and think we need to stay patient, it is a great little airport that I have no doubt will improve and grow once again!

I agree. And we all agree that we should expect frequencies to increase for S25. However, before I get accused of being negative again, a weekly service to some of these destinations is making only a very small increase to the most important figure - annual pax numbers.

I don't think it was overly unreasomable to hope it may have been a 3 times weekly service to some of the new summer destinations. Even Norwich airport managed it this year with a new operator and will probably see a larger increase to their annual pax figures as a result.

[Sharklet_321]

It seems that this 'lack of frequency' is an easyJet issue rather than a Southampton Airport issue. Yesterday easyJet announced a twice weekly Amsterdam to Newcastle service. Hardly the frequency you could expect on such a route and certainly something people would complain about if this was Amsterdam to Southampton.

Another point is that, with no base at Southampton, it will be more challenging to get space freed up on aircraft time elsewhere to fly into the airport - forward planning is the key here. 2025 will be the next opportunity and assuming easyJet is content with Southampton on 1) yield, 2) no cannibalisation from LGW and 3) a low enough airport fee then I can't see them not adding more leisure routes.

[cavokblues]

It seems that this 'lack of frequency' is an easyJet issue rather than a Southampton Airport issue. Yesterday easyJet announced a twice weekly Amsterdam to Newcastle service. Hardly the frequency you could expect on such a route and certainly something people would complain about if this was Amsterdam to Southampton.

Another point is that, with no base at Southampton, it will be more challenging to get space freed up on aircraft time elsewhere to fly into the airport - forward planning is the key here. 2025 will be the next opportunity and assuming easyJet is content with Southampton on 1) yield, 2) no cannibalisation from LGW and 3) a low enough airport fee then I can't see them not adding more leisure routes.

Agreed - fair point on the easyJet situation.

If S25 sees the likes of Faro, Palma, Alicante at a frequency of at least 3 x a week and Malaga is added with at least 3 x a week service, then the airport is looking easily at an extra 120k pax per annum and ever closer to that break even point.

[rog747]

If S25 sees the likes of Faro, Palma, Alicante at a frequency of at least 3x a week and Malaga is added then the airport is looking easily at an extra 120k pax per annum and ever closer to that break even point.

Indeed, however new leisure routes into SOU added by Easyjet (Europe) are dependant on their Euro fleet based at say, AGP for the service to operate.

I'm not aware that Easyjet (UK) fly any 'W' patterns from say, their BRS or LGW bases...If they did, or they do, then the Crews could be taxied to/from SOU.
ie: to operate BRS-AGP-SOU-AGP-BRS
I've no idea if Easyjet do this anywhere at all.

[Stevooo]

Easy UK do seem to operate ‘W’ operations. Some of the ski flights into hurn are ‘W’ paterns lgw-geneva-hurn-geneva-lgw or as todays lunchtime into hurn which is Luton-Geneva-hurn-Geneva-luton

[airhumberside]

I'm sure they've done, and may still do, AMS-SEN-Spain/Portugal. So BFS/GLA-SOU-Spain and back (or something similar) could be possible

[SouthernAlliance]

I'm sure they've done, and may still do, AMS-SEN-Spain/Portugal. So BFS/GLA-SOU-Spain and back (or something similar) could be possible

AMS-SEN-ALC-SEN-AMS

[DC3 Dave]

AMS-SEN-ALC-SEN-AMS

Plus CDG-SEN-GNB-SEN-CDG

So it’s definitely something EZY are willing to consider.

[MidlandsWanderer]

Plus CDG-SEN-GNB-SEN-CDG

So it’s definitely something EZY are willing to consider.

Yes, but only if you can crew it as a 4-sector day. It doesn't work for Med orginating flights.

[FRatSTN]

Yes, but only if you can crew it as a 4-sector day. It doesn't work for Med orginating flights.
Depends what it's combined with. As above AMS-SEN-ALC-SEN-AMS is an existing one and in summer they'll do FAO-SEN-AMS-SEN-FAO. It's only the equivalent crew hours of doing say the UK to the Canaries and back really.

So operationally it's more than feasible to do at SOU by doing more med routes between the domestic sectors but the question is whether EZY see a better yield opportunity operating med routes from SOU or utilising those aircraft back in their home bases back in say BFS or GLA.

[rog747]

Thanks for clarifying the Easyjet W flying patterns.

[Jn14:6]

Duty periods are also limited by the number of sectors flown.

[Markushillman]

Duty periods are also limited by the number of sectors flown.

Indeed when i was Crew with Loganair at NWI we had a 6 sector day starting at 9am report, and then 20:00 finish doing NWI-EDI-SVG-EDI-NWI-MAN-NWI. Long old day with not much room for delays otherwise hours quickly became an issue. If there were just 2 sectors in that time period then delays and duty period wouldn't be such an issue.

[GayFriendly]

Just to add to the EZY discussion, from what I've seen at BHX, domestic routes (especially if from another base) come secondary to that bases other operations and are fitted in without much care for frequency and timings.

It is very interesting to see that many thought that with the new EZY base, domestics from BHX would become BHX based aircraft but they (mostly) haven't with the same odd frequencies and timings

Not sure of current W ops but in the past they operated BFS-BHX-AMS-BHX-CFU-BHX-BFS for a season and I'm not aware of any regular disruption to punctuality whilst it operated so this could be a way for SOU to gain more Med frequency or a new route from EZY in 2025 - if the numbers work. Ideally it will of course benefit SOU for it to become an actual EZY base.....that took nearly 20 years at BHX!

​​​

[FRatSTN]

It is very interesting to see that many thought that with the new EZY base, domestics from BHX would become BHX based aircraft but they (mostly) haven't with the same odd frequencies and timings

​​​​​​​That didn't surprise me personally on the basis BHX is initially at least only 3 aircraft. They'd almost have to keep those domestics away based to deliver an increase in volumes, which would be the fundamental reason for investing in a new base. I imagine currently there's not much room to add additional based aircraft to BHX but longer term that might change and inevitably more of those domestics may become BHX based over time.

[rog747]

Unless you are doing W's with short flight times operating with the same crew, you could, when on 3 or 4 sectors soon run out of FTL hours once you cop a delay,
which at places like Palma or Corfu in the summer you are always at risk of.

If IIRC, you Roster a Crew to report before 0600 your available FTL hours then become very limited when operating a 3, or even a 4 sector day.
I know the FTL Regs and Rules have changed a fair bit since my day but it's still limiting.
You had much more leeway with a Crew reporting after 0600.

At Monarch we had an 0655 departing from LGW to Mykonos, thus the crew report was before 0600.
At that time the runway was too short on the Island for flying non-stop back to LGW so a fuel stop was made at Athens making this a 3 sector day.
On many occasions due to ATC and/or other operational delays down route, the Crew would have to agree to go into 'Discretion'.
Once a twice that did not happen and the Flight had to stay at JMK or ATH, the Passengers had to go to a hotel, whilst the Crew took minimum rest.

At BMA the Crews would be rostered for 3 x MME-LHR DC-9 round trips and still be ''in hours'' (6 sectors)
The Crew reported at 0630 and were off duty back at base (MME) at 1530.
BD331/332 Hot breakfast, BD333/334 Light meal, and BD335/336 Hot lunch.
Hard work, and the 331 and 332 were always full (up to 92 Pax).

[Pain in the R's]

Total posts on this thread here are running at twice the daily passenger average. While it shown passion for SOU I am underwhelmed at Southampton’s passengers numbers that are still less than a third of 2017 numbers.

[Flitefone]

Total posts on this thread here are running at twice the daily passenger average. While it shown passion for SOU I am underwhelmed at Southampton’s passengers numbers that are still less than a third of 2017 numbers.

Domestic traffic is a shadow of its pre covid level, look whats happened in Germany, just 50% recovery and no Flybe to blame. https://airserviceone.com/german-domestic-air-travel-market-only-just-over-half-the-size-it-was-pre-pandemic-lh-group-has-monopoly/

The south coast will build back on the back of high rail fares and both crowded and unreliable trains. It will rely on leisure travel. The domestic business travel uptake has all but collapsed relative to pre pandemic.

international travel is the way ahead.

FF

[SotonFlightpath]

Domestic traffic is a shadow of its pre covid level, look whats happened in Germany, just 50% recovery and no Flybe to blame. https://airserviceone.com/german-domestic-air-travel-market-only-just-over-half-the-size-it-was-pre-pandemic-lh-group-has-monopoly/

The south coast will build back on the back of high rail fares and both crowded and unreliable trains. It will rely on leisure travel. The domestic business travel uptake has all but collapsed relative to pre pandemic.

international travel is the way ahead.

FF


I completely agree about business travel from SOU. Before COVID and the demise of FlyBe I frequently flew from Southampton to Newcastle, Düsseldorf, Amsterdam, Manchester and Dublin.

In the new on-line ‘Teams’ world, I haven’t made a business flight for over four years and neither have most of my clients and colleagues.

The future has to be a steady build-up of popular lower-cost leisure routes, including some of the existing domestic destinations together with a sprinkling of Continental city-break and holiday destinations, but obviously at a reduced frequency on larger aircraft. Such a mix, plus three or four times daily KLM to Amsterdam and a frequent Channel Islands service is what Southampton needs to build towards, hopefully with two or three based aircraft eventually.

[RW20]

I completely agree about business travel from SOU. Before COVID and the demise of FlyBe I frequently flew from Southampton to Newcastle, Düsseldorf, Amsterdam, Manchester and Dublin.

In the new on-line ‘Teams’ world, I haven’t made a business flight for over four years and neither have most of my clients and colleagues.

The future has to be a steady build-up of popular lower-cost leisure routes, including some of the existing domestic destinations together with a sprinkling of Continental city-break and holiday destinations, but obviously at a reduced frequency on larger aircraft. Such a mix, plus three or four times daily KLM to Amsterdam and a frequent Channel Islands service is what Southampton needs to build towards, hopefully with two or three based aircraft eventually.
Southend have announced extra flights to Palma from Easy up to 8 weekly,,surely there must be a demand for more then 2x Palma from SOU?

[SKOJB]

Southend have announced extra flights to Palma from Easy up to 8 weekly,,surely there must be a demand for more then 2x Palma from SOU?

remember BA are also doing x 2 weekly with TUI (Tue/Sat) and a weekly flight only on Sun. More concerned that AGP/ ALC are only one weekly

[Albert Hall]

The vast majority of easyJet aircraft W patterns are driven for utilisation. So you have the likes of FAO-SEN-AMS-SEN-FAO where the Faro based aircraft doesn’t have time for two full round trips from base but does have time to fit in a quick Amsterdam and back. They used to do something very similar on TLS-BRS with an EJU aircraft and more. It looks to be about balancing short and long sectors in the aircraft working day.

There is very little of this at the UK bases as those already have a mix of short and long rotations at the bases, without needing to export aircraft elsewhere to get it.

[SouthernAlliance]

Another fabulous service Eastern is providing on ORY today. Due out at 0630, only for an aircraft to position in from HUM at midday for a 1240 departure. What a complete sh1t show this airline is!

[SouthernAlliance]

Are there any whispers of new routes at the airport? All gone very quiet

[Pain in the R's]

Standby for another 20 posts of second guessing and wish listing.

[RW20]

Standby for another 20 posts of second guessing and wish listing.
I think that's all that it will be. There are two problems that still exist after the runway extension ,the climb out restrictions on RW20 ( Marhill Copse) which stops 738 Sun route operations,and the restrictive open hours for basing a/c i.e. Easy. These are significant restrictions that the airport needs to address,until they are ,there is not going to be a lot of extra destinations being added. The breakeven pax figures of 1.2 mill is still away off.
​​​​​
​​

[Pain in the R's]

All this was known before the extension was started.

[SouthernAlliance]

Marlhill copse will most likely be rectified at some point via government/CAA intervention but the opening hours will be a difficult one to justify when a Section106 has only just been re-written

[Pain in the R's]

The CAA cannot override a TPO. I can’t see the government getting involved either, as it is a function of the local council to impose or revoke a TPO and they are not cooperating.

[Asturias56]

not in an election year for sure.................................

[SouthernAlliance]

We’re talking crown reduction on 25 trees, not swathes of deforestation. However SCC are not known to be the airports biggest supporter so who knows

[RW20]

We’re talking crown reduction on 25 trees, not swathes of deforestation. However SCC are not known to be the airports biggest supporter so who knows
On a separate note Easy announce Winter flights tomorrow ,is there any hope of anything new for SOU?

[SKOJB]

On a separate note Easy announce Winter flights tomorrow ,is there any hope of anything new for SOU?

Guess there could be but they don’t usually announce new routes on the same day as latest flight releases. Would imagine only a continuation of BFS/GLA/GVA

[adfly]

Usual summary of routes for S24. I've generally looked at early April and mid August to get a rough idea of the frequency variations. Good to see Aer Lingus increase frequencies from June, I think the overall capacity to Belfast now exceeds what Flybe used to offer on the route. Overall it is a little lower in departures than last year, but most of the increased frequencies are on larger aircraft which should more than make up for the difference in capacity terms.

Aer Lingus Regional

Belfast City - 13-20 weekly AT7
Dublin - 13-14 weekly AT7

Aurigny

Alderney - 14 weekly D28
Guernsey - 7 weekly AT7

BA Cityflyer

Bergerac - 1 weekly E90
Faro - 1 weekly E90
Malaga - 1 weekly E90
Palma - 1 weekly E90

Blue Islands

Guernsey - 16 weekly AT7
Jersey - 22 weekly AT7

Eastern Airways

Paris CDG (New) - 6 weekly AT7 (from 01/04)

easyJet

Alicante (New) - 1 weekly 319 (from 31/03)
Belfast International - 5 weekly 319/320
Faro (New) - 1 weekly 320 (from 06/06)
Glasgow - 2-7 weekly 319/320
Palma (New) - 2 weekly 319/320 (from 29/04)

KLM

Amsterdam - 13-20 weekly E75/E90

Loganair

Edinburgh - 21-26 weekly ER4
Glasgow - 18-21 weekly ER4
Newcastle - 13-15 weekly ER4

TUI

Palma - 2 weekly E90 (operated by BA Cityflyer)

Summary

171-195 weekly departures (up to 199 in S23, 321-344 in S19)
24-28 average daily departures (up to 28 in S23, 46-49 in S19)

[RW20]

Usual summary of routes for S24. I've generally looked at early April and mid August to get a rough idea of the frequency variations. Good to see Aer Lingus increase frequencies from June, I think the overall capacity to Belfast now exceeds what Flybe used to offer on the route. Overall it is a little lower in departures than last year, but most of the increased frequencies are on larger aircraft which should more than make up for the difference in capacity terms.

Aer Lingus Regional

Belfast City - 13-20 weekly AT7
Dublin - 13-14 weekly AT7

Aurigny

Alderney - 14 weekly D28
Guernsey - 7 weekly AT7

BA Cityflyer

Bergerac - 1 weekly E90
Faro - 1 weekly E90
Malaga - 1 weekly E90
Palma - 1 weekly E90

Blue Islands

Guernsey - 16 weekly AT7
Jersey - 22 weekly AT7

Eastern Airways

Paris CDG (New) - 6 weekly AT7 (from 01/04)

easyJet

Alicante (New) - 1 weekly 319 (from 31/03)
Belfast International - 5 weekly 319/320
Faro (New) - 1 weekly 320 (from 06/06)
Glasgow - 2-7 weekly 319/320
Palma (New) - 2 weekly 319/320 (from 29/04)

KLM

Amsterdam - 13-20 weekly E75/E90

Loganair

Edinburgh - 21-26 weekly ER4
Glasgow - 18-21 weekly ER4
Newcastle - 13-15 weekly ER4

TUI

Palma - 2 weekly E90 (operated by BA Cityflyer)

Summary

171-195 weekly departures (up to 199 in S23, 321-344 in S19)
24-28 average daily departures (up to 28 in S23, 46-49 in S19)
A good summary,how does that reflect on Pax numbers bearing in mind that SOU is well short of the break even 1.2 mill mark

[SouthernAlliance]

A good summary,how does that reflect on Pax numbers bearing in mind that SOU is well short of the break even 1.2 mill mark

Think I calculated previous between 900k-1m pa. Shame it looks like ezy BFS/GLA reverting back to 2/3 weekly for W24

[Sharklet_321]

Southampton 12 month running total was 755,000 in Dec and has only moved marginally to 758k in January 2024. It will need to move significantly in April-October to ensure it get's to 900,000 but I doubt it will go above 950,000 for the year.

With easyJet reducing frequency on Belfast & Glasgow-Southampton back to thrice/twice weekly in the winter, that will be a large passenger shortfall in this calendar yr.

[RW20]

Southampton 12 month running total was 755,000 in Dec and has only moved marginally to 758k in January 2024. It will need to move significantly in April-October to ensure it get's to 900,000 but I doubt it will go above 950,000 for the year.

With easyJet reducing frequency on Belfast & Glasgow-Southampton back to thrice/twice weekly in the winter, that will be a large passenger shortfall in this calendar yr.
Big disappointment is the best way to describe the post runway extension, indeed with no further news,it looks like lean years for SOU.

[GAZMO]

Southampton 12 month running total was 755,000 in Dec and has only moved marginally to 758k in January 2024. It will need to move significantly in April-October to ensure it get's to 900,000 but I doubt it will go above 950,000 for the year.

With easyJet reducing frequency on Belfast & Glasgow-Southampton back to thrice/twice weekly in the winter, that will be a large passenger shortfall in this calendar yr.

Probably just rolling over flights from this winter to next. Hopefully they will increase BFS and GLA......hopefully to daily flights

[Albert Hall]

Based on the CAA numbers earlier in the thread, this isn’t looking great. The rolling annual pax figures should be showing some half decent upward trend if the easyJet BFS and GLA flights are truly creating a new market. They’re nearly static which says loud and clear that all easyJet has done so far is cannibalise passenger numbers from existing operators, exactly as I had feared.

What a mess. You have easyJet therefore not doing particularly well and a very pissed off bunch of existing airlines like Loganair and Emerald who will be raging at the airport management. Who is responsible for this mess?

[ATNotts]

Based on the CAA numbers earlier in the thread, this isn’t looking great. The rolling annual pax figures should be showing some half decent upward trend if the easyJet BFS and GLA flights are truly creating a new market. They’re nearly static which says loud and clear that all easyJet has done so far is cannibalise passenger numbers from existing operators, exactly as I had feared.

What a mess. You have easyJet therefore not doing particularly well and a very pissed off bunch of existing airlines like Loganair and Emerald who will be raging at the airport management. Who is responsible for this mess?
The law of unintended consequences?

Really its very early days for any verdict on the runway extension. Two years down the line and the wisdom or otherwise will become clearer. Hopefully the owners are playing the long game.

[RW20]

Based on the CAA numbers earlier in the thread, this isn’t looking great. The rolling annual pax figures should be showing some half decent upward trend if the easyJet BFS and GLA flights are truly creating a new market. They’re nearly static which says loud and clear that all easyJet has done so far is cannibalise passenger numbers from existing operators, exactly as I had feared.

What a mess. You have easyJet therefore not doing particularly well and a very pissed off bunch of existing airlines like Loganair and Emerald who will be raging at the airport management. Who is responsible for this mess?
Surely AGS have to take responsibility for the mess,they have appointed the management of SOU ,Steve Szalay got out and joined the high performing Rigby group with includes BOH . Action needs to be taken to get the airport back on track.

[Ascupart]

It's really much too early to be gloomy; no one can tell what 2024 will bring. Perhaps, rather that looking at Southampton alone, it's instructive to consider AGS as a whole, Southampton being the smallest airport of the group. Recovery from the pandemic is not great, but neither is it a disaster.

https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/915x541/ags_fc34f60e51f9336c57b4377bb21ed61a1697d6bf.png


https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/963x581/ags2_0d2a1b479e13ec1d4af74532fcb322f7542e7483.png

[Skipness One Foxtrot]

AGS is an underperformer, look at how GLA, once the undisputed gateway to Scotland now does against EDI.

[Rivet Joint]

Based on the CAA numbers earlier in the thread, this isn’t looking great. The rolling annual pax figures should be showing some half decent upward trend if the easyJet BFS and GLA flights are truly creating a new market. They’re nearly static which says loud and clear that all easyJet has done so far is cannibalise passenger numbers from existing operators, exactly as I had feared.

What a mess. You have easyJet therefore not doing particularly well and a very pissed off bunch of existing airlines like Loganair and Emerald who will be raging at the airport management. Who is responsible for this mess?

Utter rubbish. Did you not see the stats I posted showing that Emerald’s route to BHD had grown despite Easy putting up decent figures on their BFS route? Oh yeah, not a single person commented on it because it was positive news and we can’t have that on this thread can we.

Let me post it again:

“Interestingly the BHD route saw a 12% increase in December to 7,080 passengers despite EZY operating to BFS with 2,638. Proof that EZY doesn’t always take passengers away from other carriers?“

What do you have to say faced with the indisputable facts above?

[LTNman]

In January BHD was down 4%, GLA up 6%.(both carriers combined)

By comparison where EZY don’t compete. EDI was down 21%, NCL also down 21%, Jersey down 9%, Guernsey up 1%, Alderney down 6%, Manchester down 100%

[Albert Hall]

What do you have to say faced with the indisputable facts above?

Several things to say. The first is that I had not clocked your earlier post, so can truthfully say the answer to your indignant “did you not see this” post is that I indeed had not. These things do happen.

The second point is that after seeing your post, I went back to the CAA statistics to make sure I wasn’t missing anything more. We now have six data points (three months Nov/Dec/Jan for two routes, GLA & BFS) to take a view on how this is going.

The one data point of the six you’ve called out is the only one which supports your view. The other five all support mine. So whilst you are correct in saying easyJet doesn’t always eat into traffic of other airlines, the weight of evidence is that for most of the time, it does.

Thirdly, have a look at the stats. easyJet’s January pax per flight on BFS (using the CAA OTP stats for the number of sectors flown) is 89. Even if all are its smallest aircraft then that’s a 57% load factor which is 25 points below its network average for the time of year. That’s an awful performance.

It’s harder to tell on Glasgow exactly what the situation between the two carriers is, but the January figures show Loganair operating 143 sectors versus last year’s 144 (so to all intents and purposes, the same). When you tot this up, seat capacity on GLA-SOU has increased by 40% in January but pax numbers have increased by only 15%. Nearly 3,000 more seats have gone into the market for a net growth of 700 more passengers carried.

If easyJet is carrying the same number of pax per flight on GLA as BFS (an assumption in the absence of any other data) then its load factor is similarly awful at about 57% and Loganair’s has dropped from 74% to 60%.

Fourthly, if you look at revenues, average selling fares have dropped certainly on the days when easyJet is flying (and those days are about to increase as we go into the summer schedule). If the average fare has dropped by 15% and volume goes up by 15%, total income from the route has stood still. But there are more aircraft flying with more direct operating costs to be covered than before.

To use an American phrase beloved of a different commentary site, this is a total dumpster fire. The economics of this for both the existing airlines and easyJet look awful, and for the airport, it has certainly singed if not burned bridges on all sides.

So accepting that there is one piece of data out of six which says things might be OK, the other five bits of data all paint a picture of a market in total turmoil and airline economics on all sides under serious stress. I stick by my views.

The vehemence of your reply does make me wonder if you work for AGS though!

[SWBKCB]

Are six results any more valid than one? Let's come back in 12 months or so.

[Albert Hall]

Indeed, results can be skewed by factors such as weather disruption and the like. But I think the point I’d make is that if you come back in 12 months time, the situation may well be beyond salvation far sooner than that timeline plays out.

[SKOJB]

Indeed, results can be skewed by factors such as weather disruption and the like. But I think the point I’d make is that if you come back in 12 months time, the situation may well be beyond salvation far sooner than that timeline plays out.

using my simple little mind, I often check the ezy app for one way seats to BFS/GLA and they regularly look very healthy with strong loads?

[cavokblues]

Impossible to know the easyjet / Loganair breakdown from the CAA stats on the Glasgow route, but the Southampton to Belfast Intl between November- January carried only 7704 passengers.

By my calculations, that makes it a 54% overall load factor.

[Rivet Joint]

Several things to say. The first is that I had not clocked your earlier post, so can truthfully say the answer to your indignant “did you not see this” post is that I indeed had not. These things do happen.

The second point is that after seeing your post, I went back to the CAA statistics to make sure I wasn’t missing anything more. We now have six data points (three months Nov/Dec/Jan for two routes, GLA & BFS) to take a view on how this is going.

The one data point of the six you’ve called out is the only one which supports your view. The other five all support mine. So whilst you are correct in saying easyJet doesn’t always eat into traffic of other airlines, the weight of evidence is that for most of the time, it does.

Thirdly, have a look at the stats. easyJet’s January pax per flight on BFS (using the CAA OTP stats for the number of sectors flown) is 89. Even if all are its smallest aircraft then that’s a 57% load factor which is 25 points below its network average for the time of year. That’s an awful performance.

It’s harder to tell on Glasgow exactly what the situation between the two carriers is, but the January figures show Loganair operating 143 sectors versus last year’s 144 (so to all intents and purposes, the same). When you tot this up, seat capacity on GLA-SOU has increased by 40% in January but pax numbers have increased by only 15%. Nearly 3,000 more seats have gone into the market for a net growth of 700 more passengers carried.

If easyJet is carrying the same number of pax per flight on GLA as BFS (an assumption in the absence of any other data) then its load factor is similarly awful at about 57% and Loganair’s has dropped from 74% to 60%.

Fourthly, if you look at revenues, average selling fares have dropped certainly on the days when easyJet is flying (and those days are about to increase as we go into the summer schedule). If the average fare has dropped by 15% and volume goes up by 15%, total income from the route has stood still. But there are more aircraft flying with more direct operating costs to be covered than before.

To use an American phrase beloved of a different commentary site, this is a total dumpster fire. The economics of this for both the existing airlines and easyJet look awful, and for the airport, it has certainly singed if not burned bridges on all sides.

So accepting that there is one piece of data out of six which says things might be OK, the other five bits of data all paint a picture of a market in total turmoil and airline economics on all sides under serious stress. I stick by my views.

The vehemence of your reply does make me wonder if you work for AGS though!

Well it’s pleasing that you have done some research before posting this time and this thread would be much better if more people did that. The fact remains that the Easy routes are going daily over the summer and Emerald and Logan aren’t dropping any rotations and in fact Emerald appear to be going 3 daily. If Easy were so destructive would we not see rotations being dropped or worse still Logan and Emerald stop serving the routes? The status quo hasn’t changed at all. When we start seeing signs of that then perhaps we can analyse whether it’s a good or bad thing. I think for the vast majority it’s a good thing if there is more Easy.

I share everyone’s disappointment at the lack of routes at the moment but the runway was only finished less than a year ago. I also don’t think SOU is competing on a level playing field. SOU is pretty much a pure commercial aviation airport and cannot offer crazy cheap rates to airlines as it has few other revenue streams. Compare this with Bournemouth that has all its other revenue streams and it can afford to offer airlines crazy cheap fees. It’s no surprise that FR is the main operator there.

it’s still early days though. The one thing I do find strange is Easy not moving all its GVA flights from BOH to SOU. Clearly they are not going to base in BOH with FR there so start concentrating on SOU.

[SWBKCB]

Thought LM had reduced GLA-SOU.

Compare this with Bournemouth that has all its other revenue streams and it can afford to offer airlines crazy cheap fees.

Fact or assumption?

The one thing I do find strange is Easy not moving all its GVA flights from BOH to SOU. Clearly they are not going to base in BOH with FR there so start concentrating on SOU.

Presumably they see two different markets. Didn't they increase flights from BOH this winter?

[SouthernAlliance]

Well it’s pleasing that you have done some research before posting this time and this thread would be much better if more people did that. The fact remains that the Easy routes are going daily over the summer and Emerald and Logan aren’t dropping any rotations and in fact Emerald appear to be going 3 daily. If Easy were so destructive would we not see rotations being dropped or worse still Logan and Emerald stop serving the routes? The status quo hasn’t changed at all. When we start seeing signs of that then perhaps we can analyse whether it’s a good or bad thing. I think for the vast majority it’s a good thing if there is more Easy.

I share everyone’s disappointment at the lack of routes at the moment but the runway was only finished less than a year ago. I also don’t think SOU is competing on a level playing field. SOU is pretty much a pure commercial aviation airport and cannot offer crazy cheap rates to airlines as it has few other revenue streams. Compare this with Bournemouth that has all its other revenue streams and it can afford to offer airlines crazy cheap fees. It’s no surprise that FR is the main operator there.

it’s still early days though. The one thing I do find strange is Easy not moving all its GVA flights from BOH to SOU. Clearly they are not going to base in BOH with FR there so start concentrating on SOU.

why would they do that when they can maximise strong loads and yields from both airports. Huge appetite from the communities on the south coast for skiing in the Alps so easyJet are surely fulfilling demand for this type of leisure market

[Albert Hall]

Well it’s pleasing that you have done some research before posting this time and this thread would be much better if more people did that. The fact remains that the Easy routes are going daily over the summer and Emerald and Logan aren’t dropping any rotations and in fact Emerald appear to be going 3 daily.

Loganair has cut though - down from four to three daily on GLA. They've dropped one flight every day which is pretty much at the times that easyJet are flying, although the EZY schedule chops and changes throughout the summer, which at least gives the appearance that it's a response to the increased GLA-SOU. EDI has also reduced (from five to four) but the removal is the SOU nightstopper - so presumably related to the crew and aircraft issues that they sound to be having.

[Hial Flyer]

Southampton 12 month running total was 755,000 in Dec and has only moved marginally to 758k in January 2024. It will need to move significantly in April-October to ensure it get's to 900,000 but I doubt it will go above 950,000 for the year.

With easyJet reducing frequency on Belfast & Glasgow-Southampton back to thrice/twice weekly in the winter, that will be a large passenger shortfall in this calendar yr.

Easyjet just load the previous winters flights into the system on release date, then add new flights and alter the schedule between April and June. Wouldn't read too much into the current winter 24/25 schedule yet

[Rivet Joint]

why would they do that when they can maximise strong loads and yields from both airports. Huge appetite from the communities on the south coast for skiing in the Alps so easyJet are surely fulfilling demand for this type of leisure market

Because they appear to be building at SOU so makes sense they transfer all of the established GVA flights there. No one is flying from BOH that won’t want to fly from SOU. If I was SOU that would be the first thing I would be persuading EZY to do. People need to associate SOU with EZY and that’s hard to do if there is a spilt operation locally. When you think of BOH you think FR.

SOU does need to be better at handling these bigger aircraft though. They often appear to leave late.

Loganair has cut though - down from four to three daily on GLA. They've dropped one flight every day which is pretty much at the times that easyJet are flying, although the EZY schedule chops and changes throughout the summer, which at least gives the appearance that it's a response to the increased GLA-SOU. EDI has also reduced (from five to four) but the removal is the SOU nightstopper - so presumably related to the crew and aircraft issues that they sound to be having.

True but think we are splitting hairs and as you have highlighted crewing and aircraft issue are also an issue. I think they have dropped routes at other airports and ones that didn’t have competition. They continue at SOU though.

[22/04]

Because they appear to be building at SOU so makes sense they transfer all of the established GVA flights there. No one is flying from BOH that won’t want to fly from SOU. If I was SOU that would be the first thing I would be persuading EZY to do. People need to associate SOU with EZY and that’s hard to do if there is a spilt operation locally. When you think of BOH you think FR.

I don't think you understand how things work - the airline will go where there is money to be made. Look at where Ryanair fly to from Stansted and Luton - Kerry, Dublin, Cork, Kerry, Kaunus, Alicante etc. etc. By your logic they wouldn't do this would they?

[RW20]

I don't think you understand how things work - the airline will go where there is money to be made. Look at where Ryanair fly to from Stansted and Luton - Kerry, Dublin, Cork, Kerry, Kaunus, Alicante etc. etc. By your logic they wouldn't do this would they?
By all accounts Jet2 will be announcing a BOH base on,Tuesday,this would be a major blow to the airport if so

[rog747]

Yes Jet2 are announcing today they are opening a base at BOH, their spiritual home which we have mooted all along on here for a few seasons - expect 2 x based 738's.
Jet2 Base #12)

TUI will be not happy LOL...

Jet2 have of course just opened at LPL too

[LTNman]

We can expect a total meltdown here from Rivet Joint. So who is he going to blame? Airport management, the trees, the local council, the aircraft type? I look forward to his response.

From a passengers point of view BOH has almost zero public transport links yet that doesn’t seem to matter, which is a surprise.

[rog747]

We can expect a total meltdown here from Rivet Joint.

LOL, let us all play nicely now eh...

We all opined about this over the past couple of years and was not really unexpected, and had Jet2 got their new A320Neos by now then we may have seen a Jet2 base at SOU, but we will have a long wait to possibly see that (2028-2029)

[The Nutts Mutts]

I also wonder if perhaps they were holding off to see if SOU got rid of their performance limitations and potentially increased their opening hours. Now that neither of those things have really happened despite the runway extension, Jet2 have made a decision and plumped for BOH as the better candidate on the south coast.

[rog747]

I also wonder if perhaps they were holding off to see if SOU got rid of their performance limitations and potentially increased their opening hours. Now that neither of those things have really happened despite the runway extension, Jet2 have made a decision and plumped for BOH as the better candidate on the south coast.

''Presses Like button''

Indeed, also Steve's departure (ex SOU OPs Director) to BOH Airport Holding group too (he was also ex Jet2 Ops somewhere)

Jet2 Holidays opens at BOH from S2025 on sale now, to over 12 destinations, with FNC Madeira added (all in direct competition with TUI Holidays)
They are not selling Jet2 Flights at the moment, only the Holidays

[LTNman]

Southampton’s Cat 1 ILS vs Cat 3 down the road won’t have helped either. From an operations point of view BOH is clearly a winner with its longer runway, opening hours and maintenance facilities although I suspect passengers would have preferred the easier access of SOU.

[rog747]

I can only assume the primary Alternate airfield for Jet2 BOH Operations would be another Jet2 Base such as BRS...

By summer 2025 BOH may have more extended operating hours ?

[LTNman]

By comparison I think SOU hours are set by a section 106 agreement with the council so are not easily extended.

[Pain in the R's]

List of routes showing on Jet2holidays this morning from April 25:

IBZ

PMI

MAH

FUE

LPA

ACE

TFS

CFU

HER

RHO

ZTH

FAO

FNC

ALC

AYT

DLM


Maybe this makes an easyJet bucket and spade operation out of Southampton a little less likely?

[FRatSTN]

''Presses Like button''

Indeed, also Steve's departure (ex SOU OPs Director) to BOH Airport Holding group too (he was also ex Jet2 Ops somewhere)

Jet2 Holidays opens at BOH from S2025 on sale now, to over 12 destinations, with FNC Madeira added (all in direct competition with TUI Holidays)
They are not selling Jet2 Flights at the moment, only the Holidays

Fuerteventura will be exclusive to Jet2 as well. Alicante, Faro and Gran Canaria in S25 are also not served by TUI, but probably will be by Ryanair. That may change of course by the time it launches, but anyway I digress... I'm aware this is the Southampton not the Bournemouth thread.