Aer Lingus - 6

[DublinPole]

In other words, Ryanair could cut all routes from Ireland tomorrow and still be a fairly well functioning airline,

So the fact that a business is successful in more than one country is a bad thing and we should be deeply disgusted by such fact and we should praise companies who only have success in their own market.

I don't know how much business that has been studied by people reading this board, but I'd have thought that being active in more markets so you don't place your eggs in one basket is a shrewd business move.

Aer Lingus tried to expand into Gatwick and failed, but neverless, because they failed this makes them good, but because Ryanair succeeded this makes them bad.

[Aerlingus231]

So the fact that a business is successful in more than one country is a bad thing and we should be deeply disgusted by such fact and we should praise companies who only have success in their own market.
I never said it was a bad thing, it's a great thing that we have two of the most profitable airlines in Europe, What I was simply saying was that Ryanair was not as dependent on Ireland as much as Aer Lingus was.

[Shamrock350]

Aer Lingus tried to expand into Gatwick and failed, but neverless, because they failed this makes them good, but because Ryanair succeeded this makes them bad.

You have completely misinterpreted what people have said. Nowhere has it been said that Ryanair's success outside of Ireland is a bad thing, it's very clear that almost everyone respects Ryanair for its success and the fact a small Irish airline is now one of the worlds largest.

The discussion of Ryanair and its Irish operations cropped up when a comparison with Aer Lingus was made with regard to the take over attempt and the profitability of the two carriers. While Aer Lingus is profitable purely because of its core Irish operation, Ryanair is not and its profits come from across the European network. This means a fair comparison of both airlines profitability within the Irish market (the market that the take over mainly covers) is difficult as Ryanair does not divulge in details of which part of the network makes the most/least money.

[BALHR]

BA are just sitting on those slots, mark my words within the next 18-24 months BA will certainly be out of DUB and most likely out of BHD as well.


Agreed, they are sitting in slots right now until they get more long-haul planes, but if they did not find the Ex-BMI routes to BHD/DUB profitable, it would have withdrawn them from those routes like they have done with Khartoum and Amritsar

But they have not done that, also you also have to note that LHR-DUB is the 3rd busiest route out of LHR and if they do get EI’s LHR slots, then they would have to state it will continue to run LHR-IRE even after integration (to please the relevant authorities)


Agreed BA have already gone from 8 announced to Dublin, only ever got to 7 and now down to 5 from S13

Easy and FLYBE do not fly to Ireland , they are domestic operators to BFS BHD...Easy did try once but were chased off by FR pretty well overnight , and that same scenario will happen again once FR get EI, the alleged replacemnt carriers will get a free run for a while , maybe even a season then they will be undercut and scheule matched until they leave, as in GO BUZZ and currently Whizz on CorkPoland

BA will never make money shorthaul and they just need feed for Longhaul ex ireland ,,,, thats the bit outside the UK, ....

BUT

Any brief look at Longhaul ex IRELAND tells you ba are finsihed,

Emirates Etihad and now Turkish have taken the longhaul traffic South and East and the 10-14 flights a day westbound to USA take that longhaul slice.

When BA left Ireland 20 years ago they had a Longhaul product ex IRELAND

However its moved now to the new hubs , new planes, lower fare, less termianl swaps etc.

IRELAND is tiny but supports Etihad x10 a week to go 12 from S13, 6x777 and 6x330
Emirates 777 X7 a week soon to go 14 daily
Turkish daily soon to go 10 a week 737-900

Ba will re visit code share with EI in IRELAND , not sure about domestic UK BHD MAN ABZ EDI but deffinitley IRELAND

But their feed has gone, maybe they dont need it as certainly their capapcity cut backs reflect this.


Easyjet and Flybe do fly to Ireland, only its the Northern Ireland bit...

LHR-DUB is the 3rd busiest out of LHR and the busiest out of DUB, also if BA felt that it is not good for the business to serve Ireland, they would have withdrawn the routes as soon as they intergrated BMI into BA

Remember if EI withdrew from LHR-DUB/BHD, then there would be higher demand on BA’s sevices (if codeshared by EI) and if done right, higher yields as well


BALHR, you need to understand that particularly in the case of domestic routes, BA has had to convince competition authority that they will support the regions of the UK and whether they wanted to do Belfast or not, they have to show that their take over of bmi will not be detrimental to domestic flying, similar reason why they have launched LBA LHR, a route that bmi axed years ago in favour of longer routes.

BA in Dublin, 8 a day from the outset was ambitious. Clearly slot holding. I dont see BA long term in DUB, though they will watch with interest what the outcome of FR takeover of EI is on that one.


So like their takeover of BMI, BA would have to convince the same authorities that it will continue to operate LHR-DUB/BHD for some time after the purchasing EI’s LHR slots

Remember, no government authority can force an airline to do a route that is unprofitable, we have moved on from this…

BA is the sort of airline that only operates routes if they are profitable (or in the case of connecting routes, contribute to profitable routes)

The reason why they launched LHR-LBA was that there was enough (and the right) demand to make the route work in terms of connections (other BA would not launch the route) and with the purchase of BMI, they had enough slots to launch the service (the lack of slots at LHR meant BA and other airlines cancelled smaller domestic routes in favour of medium/long-haul routes)

As for the future of LHR-DUB/BHD, well there is enough demand for those routes, but the question is are they profitable or do they contribute to profitable routes?


Who is 'we', I think readers in general with an interest in Ireland or UK aviation read this they understood the writer meant Ireland meaning the Republic of Ireland as most would know that easyJet do fly to Northern Ireland already.


What I have stated is that I count (for the purposes of aviation) Northern Ireland AND the Republic of Ireland as “Ireland” when referred to in this forum
Doe’s anybody have any disagreements with that?

In fact, I understand that the reason there are 4 LHR slot pairs excluded from the "agreement" is that these slots don't actually belong to EI - they are leased to EI by VS and are presently used to cover the 3x daily SNN-LHR and one of the daily DUB-LHR routings. As such, the assumption is that they will be returned to VS at some point in time.


To solve “competition concerns” maybe FR (via EI) could offer to operate LHR-DUB 4 X Daily on behalf of VS using those slots, that’s if DL allow VS to do so (not likely…)



FR will not be doing a deal with anybody, the relevant competition bodies will decide and any deal to sell EI to FR will most likely include some form of ringfencing of LHR Slots. Assuming FR are given approval, seems most unlikely.


The 4 slots pair not included in this deal (leased from VS) could be used to allow VS (or another operator) to operate LHR-DUB to fix any competition concerns (not that there are any)
If FR will not get approval to buy EI, then they will try again…
What else does FR need to do to get approval (they have already agreed to give the EI LHR slots and will hand over slots in relation to other UK-IRE routes to another airline?

Not entirely true, the issues are quite recent. EI had added codesharing on BFS LHR before bmi deal was done. Leaving one world not a big issue between EI / BA. There relationship really only come under the spot light an appears strained since bmi purchase.

This will sort itself out in time. Too much at stake for both parties, particularly BA.


This is another reason why I feel BA will still operate at least some kind of service to Ireland, if they felt operating the Ex-BMI routes to LHR-BHD/DUB was not worth straining their relationship with their close partner EI, then why are they still operating it?

I still think however that IAG should be the “white knight” and at the very least buy both the stakes held by the Irish Government and Ryanair (to make better use of the LHR slots and the potential deeper links)

:ugh:

What??? :ugh: Did you just suggest that EI, a profitable company, should sell some of their most valuable assets to another company, so that the other company can make a profit at EI's expense? EI makes a profit on LHR, if it didn't then sure they could consider selling them, but what kind of mad hatter idea is it to sell something making you money, so that your competition can make money on it instead??? :ugh:http://images.ibsrv.net/ibsrv/res/src:www.pprune.org/get/images/smilies/confused.gif


They can still codeshare on BA’s Irish routes (LHR-DUB/BHD), they can make money without the costs of operating the routes, plus they can make further money (a lot at current rates) by selling the LHR slots in the first place

Remember also that BA is not “competition” for EI, but a relativity close partner for quite some time now

The bigger question here is that there is simply that there is there is a lack of space at LHR, this is hampering the BA + VS/LHR/London/England/UK from competing with its rivals and contributing to the economy, until that changes, users of LHR need to make some hard choices, for example do we need to cut frequency to the bare minimum that makes to work (like LHR-DUB) and which carriers can use LHR and which cannot (not though legal means, but though market forces)
We would not be having this problem is there where 4 runways at LHR…

[BALHR]

What I want to know in relation to a possible FR takeover of EI is (either what FR plans to do or what we think will happen):

Will the Aer Lingus branding/operation be retained?

Will the A319/A320/A321 fleet be withdrawn?

What happens to Aer Lingus Regional?

Will FR/EI continue to operate TATL routes?

If they do continue TATL operations, will they be under the Aer Lingus brand or the “Ryan Atlantic” brand (which has been suggested as a TATL LCC airline liked to FR)?

Which routes will be withdrawn by a combined FR/EI?

What will happen to the EI BHD hub (which FR withdrew from some time ago)?

What will happen to the VS LHR-MAN/EDI/ABZ (if DL allows VS to keep them) operated by EI?

What will happen in terms of union representation at a combined FR/EI (EI allows unions, FR does not)?

Will the current FR management team remain, or will at least some of EI’s management team be retained?

What routes could FR launch if they got a bigger number of slots at Dublin, Shannon and Cork (by buying EI)?

How will this effect the use of the T1 and T2 at DUB (Will T2 have to be expanded and modified to meet the needs of FR/EI, for example)?

Lastly, can a FR/EI merger work?

[BALHR]

I cannot agree that BA already compete on IRISH routes

No service to CORK , only FR and EI
No service to SNN only FR and EI
No service to KIR only FR
No service to NOC only FR and EI

and the domestice legs

No service to LDY only FR

Service to BHD competes with EI BE EZYamong others but no FR

BA are cutting back on service to DUB , after less than a year , and never delivered on the promised 8 a day to BHD as yet anyway


What I meant was that BA operates againt FR on LON-DUB, I did not state any other route


Something just tells me BA will take any slots they can from IRELAND or Domestic UK and switch them toLonghaul when they get the planes



No one (and myself) is suggesting anything otherwise...


I think there is more chance of FR buying IAG , for cash , than there is of EI selling BA their slots for BA to divert these slots away from IRELAND or Domestic UK ,


FR is only interested (apart from EI) in buying LH (which includes LX, OS and SN)! ;)

http://theairlineblog.********.co.uk/2009/06/ryanair-interested-in-lufthansa.html


But who knows MOL always has a plan and he sure wants to expand and has the cash for IAG which is not performing well at all ......http://images.ibsrv.net/ibsrv/res/src:www.pprune.org/get/images/smilies/wink2.gif


BA is doing fine, its IB thats the porblem...

The Minister for Transport has just announced formally that the government will not be selling its 25% share in Aer Lingus to Ryanair.


Despite the fact they are having to cut spending (thanks to the EU)?

and Ryanair made an offer they could not refuse...

If cleared by EU they could still buy 75% but unlikely staff will sell their share either. The govt have announced they will appoint advisors in the new year so perhaps someone else will buy it. Who knows Ryanair may then try to buy that entity!


Could they buyout all other shareholds bar the government and staff (which would give then a majority stake) and force the airline to close and transfer its assets to the "new" EI (100% owned by FR)

Or they could offer both parties a better deal

Or EI could buy back FR stake and raise money for it by selling their LHR/LGW slots


I just get the impression that a transformational move is coming for EI, I'm not sure what but whoever buys the govt. stake will give an indication. I know WW has said IAG aren't interested but the pension issue will have to be sorted before any sale and with such slots at LHR would IAG not be missing out big time not to go after it.



IAG should have a look at buying a shareholding in EI, to protect it from a FR takeover and have deeper ties with the airline

EI will look to make a purchase of annother carrier , they have to grow


I doubt they need to do that...


BA have lost the feed traffic no matter who they choose to code share with and I still think they will come back to EI and re visit the code share as they need those DUBLHR and BHDLHR slots to fly to all those places in CHINA and India with unpronouncable names.


Without a doubt, but thw question of BA leaving Ireland altogether is another matter...


EI are currently well run and VERY succesful but a small player.


True, they have a better chance of surrvival than most carriers of its size in Europe


Intersting times but its great that such a tiny wee ISLAND has two profitable shothaul carriers in these tough times , and maybe even RE and WX will get going again ,


CityJet (which is barely has any operations in Ireland, is mostly based at LCY/CDG, is owned by the French-Dutch and is now partly Belgium as well) has not much of a future...

Aer Arran is now is now nothing more than an affilate of EI, in terms of its operations

I would hesitate to call FR and irish airline for the purposes of this discussion. FR flies a large multitude of routes across Europe and makes no reference to the profitability of individual routes. While FR is an Irish company, its reach stretches far beyond the island, although IRL-UK routes are thought to be some of the most profitable in the netowrk. By the same token cityJet has a very small presence in the Irish market. You could argue that FR and WX are profitable in spite of their Irish operations, rather than because of them.


Unlike CityJet, FR has large operations at Dublin, Cork and Shannon, so you could call it a Irish Airline, but most of their operations come outside of Ireland

In other words, its the Guiness of the avation world

They also have the "harp" symbol on their planes and the Irish flag next to their reg

http://farm8.staticflickr.com/7226/7319379786_bb696ea6c4_z.jpg

To me it looks as if the Irish Government has made this decision on purely political grounds, probably connected with the Irish trade unions. The EI share price is well below the FR offer price. The share price will probably now collapse and those poor staff in the company bought into the company at privatisation will have lost all their investments. EI is going nowhere, has an appaling balance sheet when the pension liabilities are included and every development plan they have followed has failed. It looks as if they are heading for that giant airline scrapheap in the sky.


True, is purely poltical, I am surpised they can even do this considering they have had a bailout and are cutting spending...

But Remember, with the exception of FR all of Europes airlines have a dismal share price/market cap, mainly due to the costs and the state of the industry

They have also had to deal with the one of the worst ecnomic downturns in Irish history and they have face strong competition from FR and have made some bad mistakes (like their now closed base in LGW)

Despite this, they are in a better shape then most Medium/Small European airlines (like IB for example) and are still making profits

If they are to enter the great scrapheap of the sky (home to airlines sch as PA and now BD), it will more likely be due to a FR takeover and not BK

Remember, A Ex-AA CEO once said:

"I don't invest in airlines. And I always said to the employees of American, This is not an appropriate investment. It's a great place to work and it's a great company that does important work. But airlines are not an investment"

The same goes for pretty much every single airline in the business, maybe excepting EK and FR (and a few others...), but they are a very small (and lucky) number

[BALHR]

That's a risk any investor takes. You're assuming AL will go bankrupt. Based on the profitable nature of the business that seems to be a small risk, though, like any firm, the risk exists. The staff are more likely to be happy to see the back of mick as the scenario of him winning offered the cast-iron guarantee of being fired. A small risk of AL going bankrupt vs the 100% chance of being fired... I think the desired outcome has been reached.


If FR takes over EI, you can also be sure that EI employees will lose union representation and suffer from worse pay and condtions than what they currently have...


Remember the IRL-UK market (largely DUB market) has changed a lot since 2006/7 and routes once profitable are now heavily loss making.


Why are FR will operating them then?


Imagine that somehow FR gets the green light to take over EI. BA gets the lion's share of the Heathrow slots and flyBE takes on 20 routes out of Ireland (including, incidentally, some longer sectors that really need 150+ seaters rather than E195s). What happens three years down the road? BA shifts most of the Heathrow slots over to more lucrative long-haul, and FR goes after flyBE with aggressive pricing and chases it off most or all of the 20 Irish routes, just as it's doing with Wizz in Cork. Result: the Irish market is then a Ryanair near-monopoly. But consumers should rejoice because "Irish aviation is even stronger"? Tell me again how exactly? http://images.ibsrv.net/ibsrv/res/src:www.pprune.org/get/images/smilies/icon25.gif


BA will still have less (in proportion and in overall number) than LH in FRA/MUC/ZRH and AF/KL in AMS and CDG even after buying EI's slos

If the Irish market becomes a FR-monopoly and then raises fares, then maybe BA/BA CF (after buying WX) could then cut raise the stakes in the competition on LON-DUB (FR are not interested in LHR-NHD)

Could Flybe least some A320s off BA for the irsh routes then?

[Aerlingus231]

They can still codeshare on BA’s Irish routes (LHR-DUB/BHD), they can make money without the costs of operating the routes, plus they can make further money (a lot at current rates) by selling the LHR slots in the first place

Remember also that BA is not “competition” for EI, but a relativity close partner for quite some time now

The bigger question here is that there is simply that there is there is a lack of space at LHR, this is hampering the BA + VS/LHR/London/England/UK from competing with its rivals and contributing to the economy,

What kind of BA agenda are you pushing here? Don't you realise how ridiculous you sound?
If EI are operating the flights, and not BA, then they're the one's making the profit, why would they give away a profit making route to BA?

Also, the fact that BA can't expand from LHR to compete with the likes of EK, EY and TK is absolutely none of EI's concern, they don't owe BA these slots out of sheer good will. What in gods name makes you think that EI would give away it's biggest route to the competition, just so that their competition can compete better? That's just nonsense and makes absolutely no sense on the part of EI.

[Aerlingus231]

and Ryanair made an offer they could not refuse...
Clearly they didn't make an offer they couldn't refuse, because the Government refused, and rightly so, one of their best decisions in recent months.

Or EI could buy back FR stake and raise money for it by selling their LHR/LGW slots

Seriously, what is it with you and EI selling their slots??? :ugh::eek:

[isayoldchap]

Aerlingus231, you just beat me to it. Either BALHR has too much time on his or her hands at home or there is some other ulterior motive to the reams of drivel just posted.

[BALHR]

Granted, they have a UK holding company under which UK workers are employed,
but the majority of their staff are on Irish contracts and pay Irish taxes. The
point still stands, Ryanair is as Irish if not more so than Aer Lingus who also
have a UK holding company and employ UK workers under UK contracts (and yet
nobody is arguing Aer Lingus aren't Irish...).

It's just typically Irish
that we have a company that is a world leader in their industry (one of a few
such Irish companies) and one of the biggest airlines in the world, which we
should proud of and yet some people don't even consider them Irish. And then we
turn around and welcome the US multinationals with open arms as if they
are Irish companies.


Ironicly, Guinness is owned by a British Company and the company itself has been based in the UK since 1932 :)

[pwalhx]

BA you are beginning to make yourself look foolish here. Granted it is obvious you have a great desire for BA to flourish and that is your choice, but justifying this by suggestion they buy, do deals or sell out to Virgin, Ryanair or anyone else is not going to happen.

Lets be honest does BA need to operate as many flights as it does to JFK every day, no, so if it really thought it could make more money using those slots elsewhere it would, there are resources available within if it needs to.

[Skipness One Echo]

What kind of BA agenda are you pushing here? Don't you realise how ridiculous you sound?
This chap has no relation with BA, believe me, he's a 21 year old college student fan boy. He is the one and only person on my ignore list as he has taken to writing 2000-3000 word posts at a time on some of the other previously interesting threads.

This is an interesting time for Aer Lingus though as their nemesis has just taken their last new aircraft on order and so is about to undergo something of a step change in cost base. Also with no prospect of ownership, would be expecting FR to bail out as soon as possible?

[VanBosh]

My fear is that if EI is off the cards, they may attack. Saying that EI are doing well against FR as shown by the doubling of services to BHX

[dublinaviator]

@BALHR, you've clearly got a lot of enthusiasm in your posts but would you stop posting these thesis long replies, because nobody can respond to them and you're just killing the debate/discussion on here.

I will say one thing though, Guinness might be owned by Diageo but it's still Irish and has probably contributed more to this country than any other company in the history of the state.

[clareview]

Several posts back BALHR said he regards Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland as "Ireland". He then asks does anybody disagree. I certainly do as factually he is wrong. The Republic of Ireland is a country in its own right. Northern Ireland is part of the United Kingdon of Great Britian and Northern Ireland so it cannot be acurately referred to as Ireland.

[EI-BUD]

Several posts back BALHR said he regards Northern Ireland and the Republic of
Ireland as "Ireland". He then asks does anybody disagree. I certainly do as
factually he is wrong. The Republic of Ireland is a country in its own right.
Northern Ireland is part of the United Kingdon of Great Britian and Northern
Ireland so it cannot be acurately referred to as Ireland.


This is an aviation forum, do we need to get into Ireland UK debate again? Can we stick to the topics in hand i.e. Aer Lingus in this instance, nobody needs a history or a geography, and besides the people on this thread and any of the NI related threads are able to put politics aside and not need to define what who or where we live as it is again not related to this forum as it usually created division disagreement etc.

Merry Christmas to one and all.

[Aerlingus231]

I think purely from an understanding and interpretation point of view if someone says Ireland the immediate thought is the Republic and the republic only, you'd have to say "The Island of Ireland" or something of that sort to get people to think about it that way. That's just the way people understand it. Also for some points it's good to differenciate between the two.

[EI-BUD]

@BALHR, you've clearly got a lot of enthusiasm in your posts but would you
stop posting these thesis long replies, because nobody can respond to them and
you're just killing the debate/discussion on here.



Yes I agree with this, total drivel most of the time, just posting random stuff, often totally overlooking commentary from other people. Clearly the writer has had his/her first inspiration from the aviation world and wants to keep a diary of it on here.. puts some people right off and I for one totally disengage from the message when it is reems of rubbish, which usually needs correction.

[dublinaviator]

Several posts back BALHR said he regards Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland as "Ireland". He then asks does anybody disagree. I certainly do as factually he is wrong. The Republic of Ireland is a country in its own right. Northern Ireland is part of the United Kingdon of Great Britian and Northern Ireland so it cannot be acurately referred to as Ireland.

He's not really as Ireland is both an island and a state. So saying Northern Ireland is part of Ireland is technically correct.

Also, the Republic of Ireland doesn't exist. The name of this country is Ireland. Though you'd be forgiven for thinking otherwise given the ignorance of the BBC who refuse to refer to this country by it's official and internationally recognised name.

I agree with Aerlingus231 though, if people want to refer to the whole island just say 'island of Ireland' to avoid any confusion/offence.

[GAZMO]

This is an EI thread lets try and keep posts related to EI, whether its north or south of the border

[EI-A330-300]

Aer Lingus have finally set up an official Facebook page and interacting with people though social media. All they need now is t*witter, they must be one of the last airlines to develop social media pages. Its a good and easy way to deal with passengers.

[Heathrow Harry]

the best way is to provide decent service at a reasonable price

diversions such as social meeja are just money wasted

[Love_joy]

Right then, so Lingus have picked up the Virgin SH contract and will shortly be reconfiguring a few aircraft to marry up to the Virgin product.

This is a fairly major coup for the airline, or at least it seems so. As they have had over capacity for some time now.

Whats happening with recruitment? Will we see some movement on this front, or will it be filled with existing crews via night stopping etc....???

[EI-A330-300]

They will be crewed from Dublin as far as I know. They are currently taking.on crew in Dublin. The second notice for crew is up on the website.
FYI aer lingus are not over capacity there fleet will be increasing as a result pf VS deal.

[fa2fi]

I was under the impression that cabin crew would be based on fixed term contracts working for a third party a la Ryanair at Manchester, Edinburgh, Aberdeen or Heathrow. No?

Cabin Crew - UK Bases with Storm McGinley Support Services | 463693 (http://m.aviationjobsearch.com/job/463693/?FullDescription=True&PipelinedPage=%2fjobs%2fcabin-crew%2f)

[Tom the Tenor]

Do you want to hear a good rumor? I heard this one today as I failed to get a picture of a visiting Falcon 2000. EI are to send some folk out to Abu Dhabi in order to source a few more A330 aeroplanes! :eek:

That's one to set the pulse racing if you are from Dublin or snn!

[EI-A330-300]

I was under the impression that cabin crew would be based on fixed term contracts working for a third party a la Ryanair at Manchester, Edinburgh, Aberdeen or Heathrow. No?

Cabin Crew - UK Bases with Storm McGinley Support Services | 463693 (http://m.aviationjobsearch.com/job/463693/?FullDescription=True&PipelinedPage=%2fjobs%2fcabin-crew%2f)

Mabye but whwn I heard it was before the deal was announced so it could of changed. Aer Lingus will have to advertise the jobs on there website or VS one (havn't checked VS one) sooner or lather and all they have on there website is crew at DUB and this is the second time they have being advertising for crew at DUB.

[fa2fi]

Anyone know if the cabins will be much different to current Aer Lingus setup? I'm not expecting Virgin America but I'd imagine they'd Virginise it somehow.

[BALHR]

What kind of BA agenda are you pushing here? Don't you realise how ridiculous you sound?
If EI are operating the flights, and not BA, then they're the one's making the profit, why would they give away a profit making route to BA?

Also, the fact that BA can't expand from LHR to compete with the likes of EK, EY and TK is absolutely none of EI's concern, they don't owe BA these slots out of sheer good will. What in gods name makes you think that EI would give away it's biggest route to the competition, just so that their competition can compete better? That's just nonsense and makes absolutely no sense on the part of EI.


EI can still make money by allowing their customers to book flights on BA’s LHR-BHD/DUB (if that’s still not enough, BA should have a revenue agreement with EI on LON-IRE) Also I am not calling on EI to simply “give/hand over” their LHR/LGW slots, but “sell” them to BA, that would give them enough money for them to buy back at least some of FR’s stake in the airline Also BA is not EI’s “competitor” they have been partners for several years (although it has declined in recent years) and I doubt London-Dublin/Belfast/Cork/Shannon are their most profitable routes, mainly due to the high amount of competition on those routes, their “biggest routes” are Dublin-USA I would imagine

[BALHR]

Clearly they didn't make an offer they couldn't refuse, because the Government refused, and rightly so, one of their best decisions in recent months.



Even though when the EU bailed them out, they were required to sell “state assets” like their stake in EI, also they also have to implement spending cuts at the same time, which would be partly eased though the proceeds from the sale of their stake Seriously, what is it with you and EI selling their slots??? :ugh:http://images.ibsrv.net/ibsrv/res/src:www.pprune.org/get/images/smilies/eek.gif
LHR is full; BA needs to launch additional medium/long-haul routes to help compete with LH/LX/OS/SN and AF/KL/AZ (along with several others) and EI is one of the biggest holders of slots at LHR (who operate on routes already served by BA)

Now that BD has been folded into BA, there are not many “major” owners of slots left, so they have to buy some from other (and smaller) slot holders

[BALHR]

Aerlingus231, you just beat me to it. Either BALHR has too much time on his or her hands at home or there is some other ulterior motive to the reams of drivel just posted.


I don’t have much spare time in the first place, otherwise I would be responding to posts individually, rather than do it all at once

[BALHR]

BA you are beginning to make yourself look foolish here. Granted it is obvious you have a great desire for BA to flourish and that is your choice, but justifying this by suggestion they buy, do deals or sell out to Virgin, Ryanair or anyone else is not going to happen.

Lets be honest does BA need to operate as many flights as it does to JFK every day, no, so if it really thought it could make more money using those slots elsewhere it would, there are resources available within if it needs to.


The reason I want BA to do well is that they (for better or worse) are the main medium-long haul carrier for the UK (despite what SRB thinks), now the UK is in a pretty poor economic state and what hampers it even more is that compared to our nations in Mainland Europe and the Middle East, the UK is lagging behind in terms of flights/connections to Asia, South America, Africa and other areas in the emerging world, in fact we even fall behind in terms of Domestic connections as well, KLM, LH, AF and even United serve more UK destinations that BA

This is important since we need those connections when it comes to trade, the problem is that there is a lack of space at LHR (which all the airlines want to use) to launch those flights, so we would have to rely on flying to those overseas hubs (thus sucking money out of the country)

This is why I want BA to expand at LHR, LGW and LCY (until R3 opens at LHR, after that they should leave as soon as possible), because since there is little chance of expansion for the time being, because we need to make the most of what we have got and to do that BA needs to increase the number slots it holds at those airports (towards the 70% limit or maybe push it even higher)

Remember Lufthansa owns 70% of the slots at FRA (which can deal with more flights than LHR), a similar number at MUC (which can deal with more flights than LGW) and and ZRH (which can deal with more flights than at MAN or MAD or LCY), and remember, they also have fairly large bases at DUS, VIE, BRU and TXL as well, not only that but they also have close partnerships with TK, which brings a large (and growing hub) at Istanbul and large bases at Ankara, Antalya and Izmir and LOT, which has a hub at Warsaw and a fairly large base out of Krakow

AF-KL also hold’s around 60% of the slots at both Paris airports (Orly and CDG) and Amsterdam as well, not only that but they have focus cities in Lyon, Marseille, Nice, Toulouse, Bordeaux, Rotterdam and London City (for now…), they are also close partners with AZ, who have a fairly large hub at Rome...

BA on the other hand has 52% of the slots at LHR (which can handle fewer flights than at AMS, CDG, MUC and FRA) and 20% of the slots at LGW (BA also holds around 40% of the slots at LCY, which is a small Premium O&D airport), sure they have Iberia/Vueling which has a large hubs at Madrid and Barcelona, but the problem is that the financial performance of those operations is awful and Spain is going though substantial and numerous political/economic problems

Unlike LH and AF-KL, BA don’t have much in the way of partners in Europe, only Air Berlin and they are on the way out (either BK or moving to ST)
You can see what BA has to face and what it needs to do to meet those challenges…

You, then state “does BA need to operate as many flights as it does to JFK every day”, well they do, firstly the premium/business customers need it and want it and BA can provide it (hence TATL is very profitable for them), that is why they pushed for a ATI with AA as soon as Open Skies came into force

However you are missing the point, why you should be asking is why should BA choose between serving TATL (which is highly profitable) or the emerging markets (which are profitable, but less so that TATL, but there is potential for growth)? Why not both markets, I mean LH/LX/TK/OS/SN/LO and AF/KL/AZ do not have to choose, they can (and do) serve both markets rather well

What BA really needs in the long run is 2 additional runways at LHR, only then will LHR (and BA) will be able of fix the problem of capacity, enough to match FRA and MUC combined (once it gets a 3rd runway)

And frankly, I haven’t even got to Qatar Airways, Eithad and Emirates in all of this

[BALHR]

Several posts back BALHR said he regards Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland as "Ireland". He then asks does anybody disagree. I certainly do as factually he is wrong. The Republic of Ireland is a country in its own right. Northern Ireland is part of the United Kingdon of Great Britian and Northern Ireland so it cannot be acurately referred to as Ireland.


Now I don't want to get into the whole debate over NI...

When I mean "Ireland" when dealing with aviation, I refer to the Island of Ireland, which consists of Northern Ireland (part of the UK) and the Irish Republic (which is independent)

I did this for pratical reasons and the fact the Northern Ireland maket is closer to the Irish market than the rest of the UK (EI have a base in Belfast for a start)

[BALHR]

Anyone know if the cabins will be much different to current Aer Lingus setup? I'm not expecting Virgin America but I'd imagine they'd Virginise it somehow.


They have been rather quiet on the matter, but I am hoping they do a decent job at it...

[Aerlingus231]

LHR is full; BA needs to launch additional medium/long-haul routes to help compete with LH/LX/OS/SN and AF/KL/AZ (along with several others) and EI is one of the biggest holders of slots at LHR (who operate on routes already served by BA)

You raise a good point, I totally agree with you when you say that BA should just stop flying to and from Ireland so that they can use the slots else where to do their long haul routes.

This would help EI increase their yields on the DUB - LHR market which would be good for BA because they're so close to EI, and if EI make more money this must be good for BA.

That was your point right? :rolleyes:

[BALHR]

My ultimate point is that either BA pulls out of LHR-DUB/BHD and enters into a close relationship with EI over these routes (codeshare/FF/Interlining etc) or EI sells the LHR slots to BA

Either one will be good for both airlines, even if FR fails to takeover EI...

[Cian]

FR have already failed to take over EI - the state will not sell its stake which means it cannot get to the compulsory level required. They're also barred from another bid for a significant enough period now under (Irish) Takeover Panel rules.

[BALHR]

FR have already failed to take over EI - the state will not sell its stake which means it cannot get to the compulsory level required. They're also barred from another bid for a significant enough period now under (Irish) Takeover Panel rules.


They will be back once the period ends, they could improve their offer towards the Irish Government, who couls use the money for a start (less austrity for the people of Ireland), if not then they can buy up all the other stock and then EI (75% owned by FR) can agree to "sell" all their assets to FR and wind itself up, then FR can set up a "new" EI (100% owned by FR) and do whatever it wants with it

Also did the EU state the Irish Government had to sell state assets as part of the bailout?

[EI-BUD]

BALHR

The Irish government do not have to sell EI under direction from EU, it is at their discretion.

FR may or may not go back, only MOL and board of FR will know what their intentions are. MOL may decide to cut his losses, as most parties are not in his favour, yes the Irish government could raise funds to aid the state but the proceeds from the sale of EI would be a drop in the ocean towards the overall scale of the debt etc.

Furthermore, getting approval from the EU is only one hurdle crossed. Irish government have said clearly a big no not for selling their holding and I would anticipate the that staff share holding will be a similar response, as the staff would in the main not prefer FR to control the company. Further down the pecking order is Etihad, who may also not wish to sell but if FR did takeover their shareholding my be of less interest to them depending on which direction FR would take the company.

[BALHR]

The Irish government do not have to sell EI under direction from EU, it is at their discretion.

FR may or may not go back, only MOL and board of FR will know what their intentions are. MOL may decide to cut his losses, as most parties are not in his favour, yes the Irish government could raise funds to aid the state but the proceeds from the sale of EI would be a drop in the ocean towards the overall scale of the debt etc.

Furthermore, getting approval from the EU is only one hurdle crossed. Irish government have said clearly a big no not for selling their holding and I would anticipate the that staff share holding will be a similar response, as the staff would in the main not prefer FR to control the company. Further down the pecking order is Etihad, who may also not wish to sell but if FR did takeover their shareholding my be of less interest to them depending on which direction FR would take the company.


But they do need to find money to pay off their debts, so why not sell their stake and use the money to do just that and reduce the amount of austerity in the first place...

Frankly, I just see why FR is even interested in EI, since they have very little in common with each other, only that they both have large ops in DUB (which is the only reason)

The staff would also refuse since if EI became part of FR, their T&C and union rights will suffer badly

Eithad might be more willing at the right price however...

But there is nothing stopping FR from buying further shares in EI until they hold majority control by increasingly their offer to other shareholders and then doing what they want with EI (since they would effectively control the airline)

The only way that a FR takeover can finally be stopped is if IAG (who I think would lose out in a FR/EI takeover, although they will gain their LHR slots) if they bought a 30% stake so that (combined with the Government stake) would mean that a majority of the shares in EI are held by parties against any takeover by FR (55% of the shares)

[Hangar6]

BA had a vloe relationship with EI , very close but then opted to compromise it when they took over BMI and upped the LHR DUB schedule considerably,

Now BA have reduced the LHR DUB scheule already and further reductions come S13

I think BA will revit EI relationship as current BA desire to feed LH via LHR is flawed,

TERM 1 to 5 transfer is not a happy experience
BA will phase out B737 take delivery mor LH aircraft and move some of their large number slots to LH routes inc some of those on LHR DUB

I like BA but they are brutal at SH marketing , and becasue they are so dominant in LHR maybe they lost a little focus on their feeder traffice , tried to target it themelves, but were never commited to doing it properly , eg TERM 5 should ahve been built with domestic feed in mind ...

anyway MOL bis is dead in the water , he has a real desire to closse EI as EI are so succesful at competing for LONDON traffic it kills his LGW STN LTN yelds among other routes, ...

There is a right row over BRU now that FR and EI have all those civil servants to fly to DUBLIN...

The only reason FR wants EI is to close it down, period.
At 7am EI and FR run 20-30 departrues ex DUB eavh, on identical routes DUBBHX DUB MAN DUBEDI DUBBRS or similar routes

DUBBRU DUBPAR DUBFRA DUBAMS

EI winds hands down on most of them but the real bugbear for MOL is the taxiway is crammed with green planes just as his first wave gets going , he hates wasting fuel , idling waiting for a gap to enter the queue to take off

IAG have loads slots , so when new airtcraft come they can expand, EI are about the best on shorthaul in Europe outside LCC , tightly run and profitable, high cash reserves and some great cash flow

BA need the feed and currently they are getting a few leftovers from the desert boys , LH and TK ......

EI are looking for some planes .....news on that soon

[Cian]

They will be back once the period ends, they could improve their offer towards the Irish Government, who couls use the money for a start (less austrity for the people of Ireland), if not then they can buy up all the other stock and then EI (75% owned by FR) can agree to "sell" all their assets to FR and wind itself up, then FR can set up a "new" EI (100% owned by FR) and do whatever it wants with it

Also did the EU state the Irish Government had to sell state assets as part of the bailout?


What you're suggesting is impossible under Irish company law.

You are not getting EI's slots for BA, no matter what you so desperately and singularly desire.

[Aerlingus231]

EI are looking for some planes .....news on that soon
You're teasing us you are. :O

I'm guessing they'll need an extra A319/A320 for the Virgin venture, and I've heard that a team are currently in Abu Dhabi looking at acquiring a new A330 [possibly 2?]. Any truth to this?

Iberia are getting rid of some A319s at the moment, there'd be plenty of time to get them painted up and sorted out before the summer season kicks off if they're acting now.

[Jamie2k9]

BA days serving the "island" of Ireland are numbered and some may say very numbered. EI are hammering BA at both DUB and BHD and BA will not be in Ireland for very long more. Fact 12 months from now departure boards to LHR may be very different. Another fact is that BA have too many slots at LHR now and this can be seen by the slot sitting on a number or routes.

BALHR
What are you on BA will not get EI slots and I fail to see how it would be a benefit to both carriers if EI sold to BA which won't happen unless the airline was in deep financial trouble which its not and is profitable with lots of cash in the bank.

You're teasing us you are. http://images.ibsrv.net/ibsrv/res/src:www.pprune.org/get/images/smilies/embarass.gif

I'm guessing they'll need an extra A319/A320 for the Virgin venture, and I've heard that a team are currently in Abu Dhabi looking at acquiring a new A330 [possibly 2?]. Any truth to this?

Iberia are getting rid of some A319s at the moment, there'd be plenty of time to get them painted up and sorted out before the summer season kicks off if they're acting now.

Certain carrier in the UAE withdrawn some A330's very soon..

Short Haul they will have to place an order for something within 12-18 months (I expect Airbus NEO) but IB A319 would be good for short term.

[Aerlingus231]

Certain carrier in the UAE withdrawn some A330's very soon..

Short Haul they will have to place an order for something within 12-18 months (I expect Airbus NEO) but IB A319 would be good for short term.

I understand that EK are withdrawing some of their A330s from service and returning them to their lessors, but don't they use RR engines which wouldn't fit in very well with EI's CF6-8 engines from GE. Also hear that the interiors of the EK A330s are in pretty bad nick.

I expect we'll see an order for the NEO fairly soon, or an agreement signed with a leasing company. I'm not sure what the time at the minute is from order to delivery for the NEO, but I'd say it must be a fair bit away.

IB indeed could work with some short 2-4 year leases, all their A319's are leased as far as I know and use CFM 56-5B4 engines and the A319 would be the ideal bird to open up some routes, or just improve yields on current thin routes.

[Cian]

Mismatched engines wouldn't be a killer if just for two summer seasons, having an A333 with RR engines is a lot better for fleet commonality than leasing a Tristar or a MD11 were when they had those on lease.

I'd imagine they'd put their own interior in to them, they did this for the MD11 from memory - albeit very rusty memory seeing as how long ago that was!

[SWBKCB]

Another fact is that BA have too many slots at LHR now and this can be seen by the slot sitting on a number or routes.

Not exactly "too many" - just a mis-match between slots and the right fleet mix.

[Hangar6]

EI now are down one SH A/c as the one they own is still for sale so its to go red , plus the two 320 s that were due back to leaser will be kept after 319x2 arrive.so need SH a/c and are looking hard

diff engines no issue , donkeys years of ecpertise in EI on all engines

LH a/c also an issue so short term seeking LH and SH hulls

possible impact on UK regional routes short term as seeking to get eir to operate current 320 routes whilst a/c sought, EIR getting new ATRs this Q1

lots happening in EI at moment , JFK Terminal switch , VS , LHR terminal move, WIFI , EIR , operating fleet will increae and DUBLIN airport is BOOMING this summer , as THE GATHERING get going , ME carriers ramp up services , TK also

Pilots signed up for VS ops no issue , over subscribed ..

Some other contracts being sought in DUB for cargo passenger handling for TERM 2 , CBP ramping up ,

AF Cityjet cutting a bit

and NO CHANCE FR will have any say in EI , in any form so dream on and IAG with EI slots......BA have no need of any more slots they are squatting all over the place and its actually causing their operation to suffer, especially on LHRDUB ....

EI 2012 in profit .....again....my only wee gripe with EI is they are a wee bit conservative, everyone other than LCC are struggling on EUR SHaul, oppurtunities being missed .

[Aerlingus231]

Pilots signed up for VS ops no issue , over subscribed ..
Are these current EI pilots (thought they were very short of pilots at the moment?), the LGW pilots, or just new hires being taken on?

Looks like Storm McGinley are advertising for EI CC for bases in MAN, LHR and EDI, so I take it we'll see the LGW base being transformed to a sort of LON base.

Is it still the case that these flights for VS are to be operated using DUB based pilots and aircraft, or will a base be set up at LHR for this venture?

[Hangar6]

Dub PILOTS volunteered to transfer to LHR base

EI have 20 cadets due back APRIL , have taken nearly 100 inc 20 cadets on board in last 2 years, RHS from a wide variety of airlines , of course lost a few too ,retirement and to Desert

But yes I imagine cadet recruitment will happen this year plus more DE to RHS will continue , even non TR Capts are coming thru the process.

LHR will be a busy place come end MARCH ,

[Aerlingus231]

What'd be the attraction for operating out of LHR instead of DUB for those pilots? Surely the lack of routes, only 3, and the short intensive nature of those routes, flying in and out of the LON TMA every day couldn't have been that much of a draw, yet it was oversubscribed? Early upgrade to skipper for some FO's maybe?

[Hangar6]

lots UK pilots around IRELAND in EI

tax situation is kinder I am told

Nice summers in SE UK

nearer their French holiday homes and SKI Chalets

LHR ORK DUB BHD SNN ABZ MAN EDI , yes like a bus route but lots sector pay ;)

[Aerlingus231]

Extra pay from sector pay, or a signing bonus to go there? Aren't the UK based pilots in LGW and BHD payed at a lower rates than those in the ROI?

I guess if they're from the UK though that'd be a fairly big draw. Is being nearer France that much of a deal, I mean they'd have staff travel out of DUB anyway right?

I also thought that there was a large demand from Pilots in the LGW base to transfer to DUB, I take it that that information is incorrect if there was this big a demand to move to the UK.

[EI-BUD]

Frankly, I just see why FR is even interested in EI, since they have very
little in common with each other, only that they both have large ops in DUB
(which is the only reason)



BALHR maybe from a culture point of view very little in common, I assume that is what you mean? EI and FR networks overlap massively. FR is on a large proportion of EI routes all across Ireland to UK and Europe and where is no competiton between airport pairs, FR has an alternative serivce that competes with EI for passengers e.g. CRL/BRU, BVA/CDG, BGY/LIN-MXP, CIO/FCO, LHR/LGW- STN- LTN etc..... list goes on.

EI have a great market segment ex ROI for themselves, are competitive on price and are winning most markets, UK destinations are a prime example EI and EIR collective has seen FR back off in many areas and watch this space. BRS FR retreating to x2 daily, ABZ FR withdrawl, EI are stepping up BHX to offer maximum connectivity via DUB and in the process offer the customer highest convenience and frequency.

FR are not happy with their returns on Ireland UK routes and in many cases the 738 is simply not cost effective to make they work, afterall FR is reliant on point to point. EI Is not solely reliant on this.

FR want to purchase Aer Lingus for the following reasons and lets be very clear about it:
1. Gain Control of Irish Aviation and give 2 fingers to Dublin Airport authority, this must be MOLs greatest wish,
2. Bring EI and FR together so that he can disable a very formiddable competitor, EI have developed a good approach to making the business work and it is a great example of a small company being very capable to competing and winning the battle against a dominant giant company. Routes like Stockholm and Verona have worked splendidly for EI and FR have already withdrawn Stockholm, thanks to EIs ability to feed into T/A they can develop routes without fear of FR.
3. Gain a foothold onto T/A business using a carrier who has made a profitable business across the Atlantic, not many have.

Make no mistake MOL may say that he would run EI as the current brand that it is, but he will overturn everything for competitive advantage including any promises that he may make in the process of purchasing the company, and any legal issues that arise of court cases as a result, he will see the cost as an investment into highlighting FRs low fares blah blah blah. He will never accept the Unions and that will be the achilles heel for the EI brand if the union attempted to challenge him should he gain control. he simply would close it down and bring FR in, cut back, have the market sewn up, and then lever higher prices and dictate to Dublin Airport what goes on...

EI-BUD

[Fairdealfrank]

Quote: "And frankly, I haven’t even got to Qatar Airways, Eithad and Emirates in all of this"

Please don't!

[MCDU2]

I would say the LHR base will go very junior in the LHS. Not junior by a LCC standard but by the normal 10-12 years to command in AL. The money on offer was crap compared to the ROI even taking into account the different tax regimes. Could be even wider as the ROI pay freeze ends this March and even at worse we will be expecting our 10% cut back. Most people I know who bid were going for the P1 time as it gives them an out should the proverbial hit the fan in a couple of years time.

I can assure you there are very few (if any) ski chalet owners that will be transferring to LHR.

[dublinaviator]

EI are the only irish airline offering secure employment with decent conditions.

I know plenty of people working for Ryanair who have secure employment and excellent conditions, so I call bullsh*t on this.

[Aerlingus231]

Reporter - Mayday Mayday Part 2 - English version (http://reporter.kro.nl/seizoenen/2013/afleveringen/03-01-2013/extras/mayday_mayday_part_2_-_english_version)

Watch this and you'll get an idea of how 'secure' employment is for the 70% of Ryanair pilots that work on a Brookfield contract. And Terms and conditions are better at EI even in comparison to the 30% of FR pilots that are actually employed by Ryanair.

[dublinaviator]

Watch this and you'll get an idea of how 'secure' employment is for the 70% of Ryanair pilots that work on a Brookfield contract. And Terms and conditions are better at EI even in comparison to the 30% of FR pilots that are actually employed by Ryanair.

Where did Alt Crz Green specify pilots? He made a sweeping statement that Aer Lingus is "the only irish airline offering secure employment with decent conditions".

[Aerlingus231]

The majority of workers in Ryanair are contractors, the show is about pilots and provides good examples of the conditions there, but the principal is the same, workers in Ryanair are not treated with respect, regardless of pilots, cabin crew, ramp workers etc.

The comparison between pilots in EI and FR is easiest to make because there is the most information available on it.

[Meccano]

They will be back once the period ends, they could improve their offer towards the Irish Government, who couls use the money for a start (less austrity for the people of Ireland),


Yes indeed. But as you rightly infer, the 1.30 offer is a joke.
The correct bid is a minimum of 5.50, i can prove this with a pencil and an EtchaSketch. And then I'd expect a Hostile Takeover Premium of 1 euro on top. That's 6.50 per share thank you very much. Kaching!
Now we're talkin.....

1.30? When the pikey is bursting to buy? Don't make me laugh!

C'mon Micko, stop trying to short change the Irish people. Pull on that "Green Jersey" you love to waffle about - and bail out dear auld Ireland. We deserve it for letting you stay.

[dublinaviator]

The majority of workers in Ryanair are contractors, the show is about pilots and provides good examples of the conditions there, but the principal is the same, workers in Ryanair are not treated with respect, regardless of pilots, cabin crew, ramp workers etc.

I don't care what the show is about, I'm referring to Alt Crz Green's post.

You realise there's more to an airline than just pilots and cabin crew? There's maintenance, operations, network planning, finance, marketing etc. And these people actually work directly for Ryanair. I know people working in these areas, and I can tell you they get treated well, have good rosters, and are well paid for their work, which seems to fly in the face of Alt Crz Green's post that claims Aer Lingus is "the only irish airline offering secure employment with decent conditions"

And as someone actively seeking employment, I can tell you Ryanair has been the only Irish airline over the last year offering entry-level employment in airline operations or engineering.

[Aerlingus231]

Aer Lingus took on 20 (30?) engineering apprentices last year, so both have been actively taking on entry level employees for a while now.

I'm not saying that Ryanair don't employ people they do, and they contribute a lot to our economy, but to consider their employment secure isn't accurate. And also while pilots, cabin crew and ground staff mightn't be all of the staff, they represent a large proportion of it. The majority of their workers are contractors, which by their very nature aren't secure jobs.

[racedo]

I'm not saying that Ryanair don't employ people they do, and they contribute a lot to our economy, but to consider their employment secure isn't accurate. And also while pilots, cabin crew and ground staff mightn't be all of the staff, they represent a large proportion of it. The majority of their workers are contractors, which by their very nature aren't secure jobs.

Remind me again of how many people Aer Lingus made redundant in Ireland over last couple of years....

[racedo]

Yes indeed. But as you rightly infer, the 1.30 offer is a joke.
The correct bid is a minimum of 5.50, i can prove this with a pencil and an EtchaSketch. And then I'd expect a Hostile Takeover Premium of 1 euro on top. That's 6.50 per share thank you very much. Kaching!
Now we're talkin.....

1.30? When the pikey is bursting to buy? Don't make me laugh!

C'mon Micko, stop trying to short change the Irish people. Pull on that "Green Jersey" you love to waffle about - and bail out dear auld Ireland. We deserve it for letting you stay.

€6.50 a share..............oh dear you sound like someone who invested in EI at the public offering and hoping for a bail out.

It ain't gonna happen.

As for the comment of letting him stay................from someone claiming their location is New York v MOL based and paying taxes in Ireland now that is really funny.

[FR-]

And how many crew are on forced unpaid leave this winter, while taking on new crews.

fr-

[Aerlingus231]

Remind me again of how many people Aer Lingus made redundant in Ireland over last couple of years....

Not sure of the numbers but they let a fair few go 3 years back with the greenfield plan, and in 2002/3 they let go almost 1/3 of their workforce IIRC, but that's not the point.

The point being made was that if you were looking for a secure job in Irish aviation, Aer Lingus is the first place that comes to mind. If you're looking for a job in Irish aviation, then either Ryanair or Aer Lingus come to mind. The point being made was that in general, the types of contracts being given out to new entries in Aer Lingus are more secure type jobs than the contract type jobs that are offered to new comers in Ryanair. That's not to say that Ryanair aren't offering jobs, but that the nature of those jobs is less secure.

I'm not anti-Ryanair, they do a great job and have brought down the cost of travel for many of us, and payed a lot of taxes to this country, however I don't think they treat their employees fairly and think that they exploit them. I don't think Ryanair is a place where people go for a career, but rather use as a stepping stone to get to other jobs, and this is due to the way the employees are treated. I think if Ryanair changes their attitudes towards their employees they'd have a much lower attrition rate than they currently have, and people would show some loyalty to them. Manners cost nothing.

And how many crew are on forced unpaid leave this winter, while taking on new crews.

Excellent point, sitting on standby not being paid a dime is not employment, it's exploitation. Ryanair workers deserve a basic salary, not just this pay by the hour crap that they have to work with.

[racedo]

Not sure of the numbers but they let a fair few go 3 years back with the greenfield plan, and in 2002/3 they let go almost 1/3 of their workforce IIRC, but that's not the point.


1/3 in 2002/3 and was it 1100 in last couple of years.......

How is it secure employment when dumping that number of people ? when they can't even get their employee tax advice wrong.

Don't know many employers who would forget out €30 million for another benefit to people who have already left.

[FR-]

Speaking as cabin crew only on an fr contract, we get a basic wage plus flight hours. But what really gets me is many of my friends still in fr are sat at home on unpaid leave, while fr is trainning new crews and get them online after the course. But thats what you get we you dont have a union.

Last year when the news first came about forced unpaid leave we had 'managers' come over from Dublin, it got a little heated and we hinted that we would go on a go slow, work to rule, ie extra care on secuirty checks while on a turn around, and all join unite, we was told 'any collective action, and we will close the base'. He was just a gob sh:mad:te like most in the white house. Crews are treated like crap, i've seen crews shouted at, demoted for poor sales, forced to break airport rules.

fr-


Ive also seen crew collecting money from EMT when we had the tax free checked a few years back.

[Aerlingus231]

That 1100 is a misrepresentation, that was the leave and return scheme, 750 of those people were re-hired but on lower terms and conditions as part of the Greenfield plan. So the actual redundancies were closer to 350.

[dublinaviator]

That 1100 is a misrepresentation, that was the leave and return scheme, 750 of those people were re-hired but on lower terms and conditions as part of the Greenfield plan. So the actual redundancies were closer to 350.

So in an debate about Aer Lingus having better working conditions than Ryanair, you're defending Aer Lingus for making 750 staff redundant and rehiring them on lower pay & conditions just because they didn't sack them altogether?

Oh the irony...

And if you want to talk about job security, you don't see Ryanair staff threatening industrial action every 6 months and forcing passengers to cancel their bookings at a massive inconvenience. What does this do for the security of jobs?

[dublinaviator]

Professional PILOTS Rumour Network... There's a clue. Although I do equally refer to cabin crew.

Forum title - Airlines, Airports & Routes

There's another clue.;)

[FR-]

Come off it, most the people on here aint pilots.

[CabinCrewe]

...infact amongst the spotters id suggest there were hardly any...

[Aerlingus231]

So in an debate about Aer Lingus having better working conditions than Ryanair, you're defending Aer Lingus for making 750 staff redundant and rehiring them on lower pay & conditions just because they didn't sack them altogether?

Because the terms and conditions they were re-hired on were still far better than those of Ryanair. Ask many of Ryanairs workers and you'll find few who think they are treated well and intend staying there for a career, ask many of EI's and I think you'll find a much greater portion who think they are treated with respect, decency and have a long term future there.

[Hangar6]

I spoketo 18 staff in FR uniform today , NONE were emplued by Ryanair

I spoke to a mere 22 taff in EI uniform today , guess what


22 were employed by EI . direclty

now I didnt get into contracts but I am in tomorrow so if anyone else out there with nearly nil insight into FR and their hiring staffing practices across Europe in the last ten years needs any specific details let me know

always happy to add specific facts to the rumour network

also
apologies re swiss chalets I meant spain bulgaria london docklands, names available .....

[Meccano]

€6.50 a share..............oh dear you sound like someone who invested in EI at the public offering and hoping for a bail out.

Yes I'm a shareholder. Just like Micko. Only I didn't pay 2.90 per share like him!
He's over a barrel, and about to be forced into a mandatory divestment. He's battling now to save his skin. That's my price. Take it or leave it.

It ain't gonna happen.
Fine by me. Its a HOSTILE TAKEOVER BID. Who asked for it?
Let him take a hike, stop wasting mine and the countries time!

As for the comment of letting him stay................from someone claiming their location is New York v MOL based and paying taxes in Ireland now that is really funny.

That old chestnut.
That's a matter of debate.
Does his company pay ALL it's rightful taxes?
Some say not. Some say his pilots do not. And it saves him a heap.
Give with one hand, take with the other. I'm not as easily impressed as you.

[Aerlingus231]

Passenger Numbers for December

SH: +3.4% (+0.7% for the year)
LH: +13.4% (+9.4% for the year)
Regional: +33.3% (+33.9% for the year)

Total excl Regional: +4.5% (+1.5% for the year)
Total incl Regional: +7.2% (+3.8% for the year)

Load Factors for December:
SH: 66.6% (+0.7%) , Year to date: 75.4% (+0.8%)
LH: 77.7% (+6.1%), Year to date: 82.5% (+4.9%)
No Load factor stats for Regional

Good year all around it looks like.

Ref:
http://corporate.aerlingus.com/media/corporateaerlinguscom/content/pdfs/December_2012_Traffic_Stats_RNSFinal.pdf
Aer Lingus traffic figures fly 7% higher - RTÉ News (http://www.rte.ie/news/2013/0107/aer-lingus-traffic-figures-fly-7-higher-business.html)

[MCDU2]

Dublin aviator - good luck in your search for employment. With your attitude on the industry you will be a perfect fit for FR. Then after 5 years and no pay back on your investment you can contemplate a shift to the middle east. Dont be surprised though if the t&cs across the globe have all gone to pot. Perhaps one day you might actually get home and secure employment rather than living out of a bag if your lucky.

[dublinaviator]

Dublin aviator - good luck in your search for employment. With your attitude on the industry you will be a perfect fit for FR. Then after 5 years and no pay back on your investment you can contemplate a shift to the middle east. Dont be surprised though if the t&cs across the globe have all gone to pot. Perhaps one day you might actually get home and secure employment rather than living out of a bag if your lucky.

I've no desire to become a pilot, and you completely missed the point of my post. The statement that has yet to be backed up by any facts that Aer Lingus is "the only irish airline offering secure employment with decent conditions" is a general statement applying to all airline roles. If people want to be specific about the working conditions of pilots and cabin crew then do so, but making sweeping statements like the one made by Alt Crz Green is just nonsense. There are plenty of well paid jobs in Ryanair that offer great conditions, but don't let facts get in the way of a good auld Ryanair bashing.

[racedo]

Yes I'm a shareholder. Just like Micko. Only I didn't pay 2.90 per share like him!
He's over a barrel, and about to be forced into a mandatory divestment. He's battling now to save his skin. That's my price. Take it or leave it.


Battling to save his skin.............

You really live in a different world.

Ryanair forced to divest can sell to anybody and that includes MO'L. Finding financial backers won't be a problem.



Fine by me. Its a HOSTILE TAKEOVER BID. Who asked for it?
Let him take a hike, stop wasting mine and the countries time!


Which country is that ? The one you live in ?

Dunno but don't see Ryanair having much to do with New York ...........yet


That old chestnut.
That's a matter of debate.
Does his company pay ALL it's rightful taxes?
Some say not. Some say his pilots do not. And it saves him a heap.
Give with one hand, take with the other. I'm not as easily impressed as you.

Funny but far as I am aware Ryanair is owned by many shareholders and not by one man.

As for claiming it doesn't pay its taxes then do hope you provide some facts on it, you know the kind that stand up to scrutiny and not just made up hearsay.

[dublinaviator]

Alt don't patronise me, I'm perfectly calm and I'm entitled to post my opinions as much as you are. If you want to come on here and mislead people by making sweeping claims without any facts to back them up that's your business. But this forum isn't to talk about pilots, it's to discuss every aspect of an airline and airport's operations. So when you make wild claims like the one above, you're talking about all staff not just pilots.

[BALHR]

What you're suggesting is impossible under Irish company law.

You are not getting EI's slots for BA, no matter what you so desperately and singularly desire.

Why is that the case?

Also BA really need the slots to compete with its rivals in Europe, the Middle East and North America and sadly unless LHR is expanded, they will have to look buy some from other operators, however since the BMI takeover there are not many left that hold a large number, only VS, LH and EI, not a good prospect then…

For the record, I am firmly against the FR takeover bids for EI, I would much prefer BA buying a big enough stake in EI to end this whole saga and then buy their LHR slots (the money used could be used to buy back the FR shareholding)

BA days serving the "island" of Ireland are numbered and some may say very numbered. EI are hammering BA at both DUB and BHD and BA will not be in Ireland for very long more. Fact 12 months from now departure boards to LHR may be very different. Another fact is that BA have too many slots at LHR now and this can be seen by the slot sitting on a number or routes.

BALHR
What are you on BA will not get EI slots and I fail to see how it would be a benefit to both carriers if EI sold to BA which won't happen unless the airline was in deep financial trouble which its not and is profitable with lots of cash in the bank.

If EI stubbornly refuses to sell their LHR slots, then they might as well use their own slots that are currently used for LHR-DUB/BHD (which would be scraped) and just codeshare on EI’s LHR/LGW-IRE routes

Also do you have any evidence/figures in relation to both BA and EI loads/profits on LHR-DUB/BHD/SNN/ORK?

However “BA” does not have “too many slots” in fact they barely have enough to compete with its rivals…

As for the potential benefits of EI selling their LHR slots:

1: They can buy back FR’s shareholding in the airlines, thus ending this idiotic saga

2: BA can better compete with its rivals in Europe, the Middle East and North America

3: BA will face “pressure” to maintain LHR-DUB/BHD for longer-term

4: BA/EI will have a closer partnership with each other, meaning EI can still get some benefit out of LHR-DUB/BHD

5: Yield will improve in relation to LHR-DUB/BHD

In other words, very good for both airlines…

AF Cityjet cutting a bit

and NO CHANCE FR will have any say in EI , in any form so dream on and IAG with EI slots......BA have no need of any more slots they are squatting all over the place and its actually causing their operation to suffer, especially on LHRDUB

CityJet is up for sale and I can only see BA CityFlyer buying it…

Anyway, they have very little out of DUB; nearly all their ops are in LCY
Like I said again BA badly need additional slots even after buying BMI, they hold a smaller proportion of slots at LHR/LGW when compared to its rivals in Europe, who holds bigger shares at airports that can handle more flights (AF-KL at CDG/AMS and LH in FRA/MUC/ZRN and they have even more than that…)

With VS in bed (for now…) with DL, EI is one of the few big holds of slots at LHR still standing…

It would also improve yields on LHR-DUB/BHD, which would benefit both airlines (EI will still codeshare on BA’s LHR-DUB/BHD flights)

BALHR maybe from a culture point of view very little in common, I assume that is what you mean? EI and FR networks overlap massively. FR is on a large proportion of EI routes all across Ireland to UK and Europe and where is no competiton between airport pairs, FR has an alternative serivce that competes with EI for passengers e.g. CRL/BRU, BVA/CDG, BGY/LIN-MXP, CIO/FCO, LHR/LGW- STN- LTN etc..... list goes on.

EI have a great market segment ex ROI for themselves, are competitive on price and are winning most markets, UK destinations are a prime example EI and EIR collective has seen FR back off in many areas and watch this space. BRS FR retreating to x2 daily, ABZ FR withdrawl, EI are stepping up BHX to offer maximum connectivity via DUB and in the process offer the customer highest convenience and frequency.

FR are not happy with their returns on Ireland UK routes and in many cases the 738 is simply not cost effective to make they work, afterall FR is reliant on point to point. EI Is not solely reliant on this.

FR want to purchase Aer Lingus for the following reasons and lets be very clear about it:
1. Gain Control of Irish Aviation and give 2 fingers to Dublin Airport authority, this must be MOLs greatest wish,
2. Bring EI and FR together so that he can disable a very formiddable competitor, EI have developed a good approach to making the business work and it is a great example of a small company being very capable to competing and winning the battle against a dominant giant company. Routes like Stockholm and Verona have worked splendidly for EI and FR have already withdrawn Stockholm, thanks to EIs ability to feed into T/A they can develop routes without fear of FR.
3. Gain a foothold onto T/A business using a carrier who has made a profitable business across the Atlantic, not many have.

Make no mistake MOL may say that he would run EI as the current brand that it is, but he will overturn everything for competitive advantage including any promises that he may make in the process of purchasing the company, and any legal issues that arise of court cases as a result, he will see the cost as an investment into highlighting FRs low fares blah blah blah. He will never accept the Unions and that will be the achilles heel for the EI brand if the union attempted to challenge him should he gain control. he simply would close it down and bring FR in, cut back, have the market sewn up, and then lever higher prices and dictate to Dublin Airport what goes on...

EI-BUD

I was talking about a cultural point of view, but it’s not just that, there are many differences from the fact they operate different types of Narrow-Body Aircraft, the fact FR has hubs all over Europe whereas EI is focused on the NL/ROL market and right up to employees T&Cs

All the point you make are also very good ones, I can see why the Irish Government + EI Employees are massively against the deal and I agree with them

So I suggest the 3-point plan to make sure EI remains free from FR control:

1: Sell their LHR slots to BA, which would give EI vast amounts of cash

2: Use that cash to buy back FR’s stake in the airline

3: EI could then re-sell that sake to BA in return (guaranteeing that FR will never gain a majority stake in FR), both airlines form a close partnership with each other (more codeshare partnerships and maybe even some ATI)

Do you think it is a good idea?

[EI-BUD]

1: Sell their LHR slots to BA, which would give EI vast amounts of cash

2: Use that cash to buy back FR’s stake in the airline

3: EI could then re-sell that sake to BA in return (guaranteeing that FR will never gain a majority stake in FR), both airlines form a close partnership with each other (more codeshare partnerships and maybe even some ATI)

Do you think it is a good idea?


BALHR,

All pie in the sky, excuse the pun, why on earth would EI sell its prized asset that is the cornerstone of its short haul operation, have any idea how obsurd it is to suggest that EI are being stubborn holding on the LHR slots?

EI need to remain differentiated to FR so why would they surrender their access to LHR? Crazy.

Secondly,
EI May not be able to buy back the stake, price may become too great, if it became available.

Finally
BA ARE NOT INTERESTED IN BUYING ANY PART OF EI.

So there are just a few barriers to implementing your plan.

EI-BUD

[Aerlingus231]

Also BA really need the slots to compete with its rivals in Europe, the Middle East and North America and sadly unless LHR is expanded, they will have to look buy some from other operators, however since the BMI takeover there are not many left that hold a large number, only VS, LH and EI, not a good prospect then…

Listen, you really really don't seem to be getting this here. The fact that BA need slots is none of Aer Lingus' concern. In case this isn't sinking in;

AER LINGUS DON'T CARE HOW BA DOES, IF BA CAN'T COPE TOUGH LUCK TO THEM, BUT AER LINGUS DON'T CARE!!!!

Aer Lingus is not some sub section of BA that BA wants to get some of it's assets off, it is a competitor to BA, and a company that really couldn't concern itself less with the fact that BA can't compete with others, tough luck BA. What Aer Lingus does care about is making money, which is what it does with it's LHR flights which are the cornerstone as EI-BUD says of EI's short haul network. If they didn't make money on the flights then sure they might consider selling some of the slots, but they do make money on them, always have, so they're never ever ever ever going to sell one of their most profitable assets just to be nice to this other airline that is struggling because it's being bullied by those big mean other airlines...

Has this sunk in?

[brian_dromey]

BA will never buy some, all or none of EI, or any slots at LHR. BA no longer has that level of strategic decision making power. BA is not an independent airline in its own right, it is part of a multinational holding company. Strategic decisions such as acquisition of airlines, aircraft or large numbers of slots are made in Madrid, not London.

LHR is no longer, necessarily, the be all and end all of operations these days. MAD is a large hub with equally modern facilities and room to grow. IAG could, if it wished, siphon much more connecting traffic through MAD and fill more LHR flights with O&D. Indeed this makes a lot more sense than trying to develop an LGW hub that some keep suggesting.

Selling the premier route in the short haul network makes absolutely zero sense from EI's point of view. Even when times were really bad, LHR was always the last route to be cut. I could almost guarentee that the last EI flight ever returning to DUB would be from LHR, the only way these slots would be sold is in liquidation. The LHR operation is at the very core of EI.

[floss689]

BALHR



What planet are you on?

[Hangar6]

It is fair to say LHR is full and any new entrant must obtain slots from a current carrier

BA has no slot shortage, recent new routes domestic , shorthaul, mid haul and longhaul PLUS currently lease slots toother airlines

BA do need to wait for their new aircraft to switch some of their less profitable slots eg DUB to other routes, probably Longhaul .

No commercial sense in buying more slots in current climate when they already have a surplus

[Meccano]

Battling to save his skin.............

You really live in a different world.Oh, a bit rhetorical, perhaps. But the situation he now faces is really not a pleasant one. He has egg on his face (just another metaphor, in case you feel like checking).

Ryanair forced to divest can sell to anybody and that includes MO'L. Finding financial backers won't be a problem.You know what? I think that's a BRILLIANT idea!
Finally Mr.O'Leary gets to take PERSONAL responsibility for the cost of his mistake! Instead of his poor shareholders, let him shoulder the losses himself!
At 1.10'ísh per share the current capitalised value of EI is about 620M, so the 29% FR holding will cost him around 180M. Where will he get 180M?
well his net worth is around 275M according to Irelands 'Rich List' - so he can afford to pay for it himself, with change left over!
Or, as you suggest, he could look for Finance.
What would be the repayments per month on 180M?
I calculate it to be 3.15M at 1.75%.
That wipes him out in 7 years. Not a very smart move. Not very Michael O'Leary'ísh.

Of course he might look for a 'White Knight' to tap.
But is anyone outside FR seriously interested in taking a punt of that nature? I doubt it. And if it was someone INSIDE FR - I can see all sorts of legal difficulties arising, especially with the UK CA. The Irish Stock Market rules might throw a spanner in it too. Conflict of interest? Acting in Concert? Choose your poison....

In fairness there's also the argument that, if he's going to make amends properly, he should repay the full cost of his misadventure. He bought at around 2.90 per share, so the bill should really come to 475M or thereabouts.

Really good idea though. I hope he pulls it off, and loses his fortune in the process.

Which country is that ? The one you live in ?No, Ireland! We're talking about The Irish State Shareholding here, right? Not my address....or did you get a bit distracted?

Dunno but don't see Ryanair having much to do with New York ...........yetOh?
And who is the Chairman of The Board?
Your knowledge is a bit deficient for one so fervent in his admiration.

As for claiming it doesn't pay its taxes then do hope you provide some facts on it, you know the kind that stand up to scrutiny and not just made up hearsay. Did you know that the mega profitable FR had the same tax bill last year as little ole PAYE taxpayer Micko? How can that be? I'm sure it's all above board of course! I'm 100% behind you. How dare those nasty internet denizens and journo's make accusations about FR's taxes. They should be bloody sued right away for daring to post this kind of tripe: Ryanair boss faces investigation into alleged tax evasion in Italy | Business | guardian.co.uk (http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2012/oct/16/ryanair-boss-investigation-tax-italy)
That Italian judge should be fired too, don't you agree?

[Hangar6]

Moving on

Wouldnt it be great for EI if

for once just once a whole 12 months went by without a threat of any type of industrial avtion, I am sure the multiple threats in 2012 cost many lost bookings ...

Wouldnt it be great if further millions were not wasted on defending FR bids, must be 10mill for 2012, straight off the bottom line...

The Gathering will generate tens thousands extra seats for EI
So will the EU Presidency
VS deal will go straight into the bottom line as profit
LHR temrinal move....fingers crossed
JFK Terminal move is a real plus JETBLUE Terminal is very user friendly
WIFI for all planes, but u just know it will have bugs..like my iphone but still its positive
EIR new planes and increased fleet

possibilities of using that cah pile for planes, even a cheap airline ,,,

oh to have a good clean year for passengers staff and us folks....

could it happen ?

[brian_dromey]

Is there going to be a lounge facility at JFK T5, I don't think JetBlue have anything currently?

[Hangar6]

In short yes

Now I have not seen the current lounges LH , VS and Hawaian use in T5 but EI will have lounge for Premier , mind you VS will move over DL no doubt.

But yes is the answer

[BALHR]

All pie in the sky, excuse the pun, why on earth would EI sell its prized asset that is the cornerstone of its short haul operation, have any idea how obsurd it is to suggest that EI are being stubborn holding on the LHR slots?



Firstly its LHR slots are not its prized assets (but they are very important), no it is the TATL network

I am not judgeing if EI are stubborn, I am saying that "if they where" remember BA and EI have not even talked to each other about it (and not are not going to for the time being)


EI need to remain differentiated to FR so why would they surrender their access to LHR? Crazy.



They can still get access to LHR, the only diffrence is that they will be codesharing on BA's flights rather than running the flight themselves, which would be more profitable due to less competition...


EI May not be able to buy back the stake, price may become too great, if it became available.



EI are not that value, beside that will make a lot of money out of the sale (look at the market rate...), if thats not enough maybe IAG can chip in (they have much to lose out of a FR takeover of EI)


BA ARE NOT INTERESTED IN BUYING ANY PART OF EI.


They are interested in their LHR slots...


Listen, you really really don't seem to be getting this here. The fact that BA need slots is none of Aer Lingus' concern. In case this isn't sinking in;

AER LINGUS DON'T CARE HOW BA DOES, IF BA CAN'T COPE TOUGH LUCK TO THEM, BUT AER LINGUS DON'T CARE!!!!


But they do care about the fact they don't want to be bought out by FR and I am suggesting IAG can help with that, in return of selling their :HR slots to them and a closer partnership...)


Aer Lingus is not some sub section of BA that BA wants to get some of it's assets off, it is a competitor to BA, and a company that really couldn't concern itself less with the fact that BA can't compete with others, tough luck BA. What Aer Lingus does care about is making money, which is what it does with it's LHR flights which are the cornerstone as EI-BUD says of EI's short haul network. If they didn't make money on the flights then sure they might consider selling some of the slots, but they do make money on them, always have, so they're never ever ever ever going to sell one of their most profitable assets just to be nice to this other airline that is struggling because it's being bullied by those big mean other airlines...



True they are seperate from BA, but they are a close partner, not a competitior of BA, its reflected on the codesharing on LHR-DUB/BHD

True they don't care about BA's problems, but with FR its a diffrent story, so BA can help fix their problems and EI can fix BA's problems in return

Also EI will still be making money out of LHR-DUB/BHD by codesharing on BA's flights, although this time they might be more profitable (with higher yields)...

Besides its not the first time an airline has sold a very profitable part of their business

After all why should EI reject a offer it cannot refuse from BA... (they will make a lot of money out of the sale of LHR slots)


BA will never buy some, all or none of EI, or any slots at LHR. BA no longer has that level of strategic decision making power. BA is not an independent airline in its own right, it is part of a multinational holding company. Strategic decisions such as acquisition of airlines, aircraft or large numbers of slots are made in Madrid, not London.



IAG has its head office in the UK, but incorporated in Spain, their management comes from both airlines (BA however is the main partner)


LHR is no longer, necessarily, the be all and end all of operations these days. MAD is a large hub with equally modern facilities and room to grow. IAG could, if it wished, siphon much more connecting traffic through MAD and fill more LHR flights with O&D. Indeed this makes a lot more sense than trying to develop an LGW hub that some keep suggesting.



IB Long-Haul network consists solely of routes to North/South America and even that is suffering from strong competition (even from their fellow OW partner LATAM) and the airline itself is making large losses and is forced to make savings by cutting jobs/routes and moving more routes to Vueling

Also IB's short-haul network is being reduced on a large scale (thus reduced connections to the rest of Europe...) and the IB/MAD is located in a country is suffering from a massive ecnomic crisis, large debts, high umemployment and the rise of the far-left/right and nationalists, then there is the fact its in the Euro (which is also having a lot of problems as well...)

Far better to expand at LHR as much as legally posibble and then do the same at LGW//LCY...


Selling the premier route in the short haul network makes absolutely zero sense from EI's point of view. Even when times were really bad, LHR was always the last route to be cut. I could almost guarentee that the last EI flight ever returning to DUB would be from LHR, the only way these slots would be sold is in liquidation. The LHR operation is at the very core of EI.


If they can make a lot of money from the sale, deal with their biggest biggest problem (FR) and still make money on a more profitable LHR-DUB/BHD, then it not a bad idea

Of course its up to them in the first place...

PS: Its not the first time an airline has sold/shut down its "premier/flagship/profitable routes"

[Aerlingus231]

But they do care about the fact they don't want to be bought out by FR and I am suggesting IAG can help with that, in return of selling their :HR slots to them and a closer partnership...)

There's no need for help, the bid is not going to go through.

After all why should EI reject a offer it cannot refuse from BA... (they will make a lot of money out of the sale of LHR slots)
The only bid they cannot refuse would be 100 years profit given to them up front, including infaltion, short of that they'd be better off with the slots.

EI is here for the long term, it doesn't care about making a quick buck from selling it's LHR slots, it has a lot of liquidity at the moment, they're not strapped for cash and have no need for the extra cash on hand, and even if they were, I'd say EI would sooner sell their entire fleet before they sold their LHR Slots.

Also EI will still be making money out of LHR-DUB/BHD by codesharing on BA's flights, although this time they might be more profitable (with higher yields)...

You don't seem to grasp the fact that EI would make money operating the route itself, rather than letting BA do it on its behalf, so unless BA is going to be so kind as to donate all the profits of that route to EI, and let's face it, never going to happen, then EI are better off doing it themselves. Besides, based on what I've heard about the routes from DUB/BHD -> LHR, EI are wiping the floor with BA when it comes to load factors, yields, punctuality and the number of corperate contracts they have, so why let BA do it when they're going to be forced off the route by EI anyway?

[dublinaviator]

Go home BALHR, you're drunk

[Aerlingus231]

Go home BALHR, you're drunk
+1 :D:D:D :ok:

[Shamrock350]

JFK Terminal move is a real plus JETBLUE Terminal is very user friendly
Aer Lingus have begun tests at JFK T5, parked EI-ELA at one of the gates yesterday and rumoured start date is March 17th for a St Patrick's Day celebration.

[Aerlingus231]

Aer Lingus have begun tests at JFK T5, parked EI-ELA at one of the gates yesterday and rumoured start date is March 17th for a St Patrick's Day celebration.

Indeed, some pics can be found here of EI-ELA at T5, Gate 14 for testing yesterday.

Instagram photo by @annie_migs (Annie Migs) | Statigram (http://statigr.am/p/364530262836083854_182868678)
Instagram photos for tag #aerlingus | Statigram (http://statigr.am/tag/aerlingus)

[Jamie2k9]

They can still get access to LHR, the only difference is that they will be code sharing on BA's flights rather than running the flight themselves, which would be more profitable due to less competition...


BA have being code sharing with EI for years and still are BTW so why would EI code share with them when BA would be unable to provide 12 or 13 daily flights depending on season that EI can. BA are only on DUB route because they took over from BMI and currently have nothing productive to do with the slots or aircraft which is why they are operating the route. BA can't be bothered even offering there own flights for passengers who are connecting from DUB at LHR only the EI ones are offered. It says a lot don't you think...

[racedo]

Oh, a bit rhetorical, perhaps. But the situation he now faces is really not a pleasant one. He has egg on his face (just another metaphor, in case you feel like checking).

Lets see Ryanair board made a collective Board decision on the issue and investors don't seem to have had a problem with it EVER and given already written down value to €0.50 then not sure why they would have an issue now.

Forcing them to sell at €1.06 would put €180 million into the bank with no problem in the world and then let the new shareholder do as they wish.


You know what? I think that's a BRILLIANT idea!
Finally Mr.O'Leary gets to take PERSONAL responsibility for the cost of his mistake! Instead of his poor shareholders, let him shoulder the losses himself!
At 1.10'ísh per share the current capitalised value of EI is about 620M, so the 29% FR holding will cost him around 180M. Where will he get 180M?
well his net worth is around 275M according to Irelands 'Rich List' - so he can afford to pay for it himself, with change left over!
Or, as you suggest, he could look for Finance.
What would be the repayments per month on 180M?
I calculate it to be 3.15M at 1.75%.
That wipes him out in 7 years. Not a very smart move. Not very Michael O'Leary'ísh.

Really ?

Think you would find Institutions beating a path to his door to provide funds to invest.

Previous track history and success is a good guide for institutions so find the money would be easy.

Investors like this don't ask for money to be returned each month as putting in €250 Million and taking €750 Million in 5 years time pays a little more that 1.75%.




Of course he might look for a 'White Knight' to tap.
But is anyone outside FR seriously interested in taking a punt of that nature? I doubt it. And if it was someone INSIDE FR - I can see all sorts of legal difficulties arising, especially with the UK CA. The Irish Stock Market rules might throw a spanner in it too. Conflict of interest? Acting in Concert? Choose your poison....

In fairness there's also the argument that, if he's going to make amends properly, he should repay the full cost of his misadventure. He bought at around 2.90 per share, so the bill should really come to 475M or thereabouts.

Really good idea though. I hope he pulls it off, and loses his fortune in the process.



Wow so full of bitterness.

Coming up with lots of terms you don't understand.

You really don't get the idea of what The Board of companies are for do you.




Did you know that the mega profitable FR had the same tax bill last year as little ole PAYE taxpayer Micko? How can that be? I'm sure it's all above board of course! I'm 100% behind you. How dare those nasty internet denizens and journo's make accusations about FR's taxes. They should be bloody sued right away for daring to post this kind of tripe: Ryanair boss faces investigation into alleged tax evasion in Italy | Business | guardian.co.uk (http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2012/oct/16/ryanair-boss-investigation-tax-italy)
That Italian judge should be fired too, don't you agree?

Companies that invest in Capital equipment are allowed write down the cost of the equipment against profits, over a number of years that has been the position in UK, Ireland and pretty much every country for decades. This is why companies who make money continually invest, to minimise tax.

If you disagree then suggest you write to every govt to change it:rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:

As the Tax specialist makes clear no law has been broken and think you will find tax specialists have a greater grasp of tax law than prosecutors, its why they charge €2-3k per day at a junior level.

As EU tax law is being observed then making noises to a newspaper as the prosecutor has done really shows there is little to worry about. He wouldn't be talking to the media if he had a case.

Its nice that an Italian prosecutor is getting interested in tax evasion, think he should look closer to home though.

[Jamie2k9]

Aer Lingus have begun tests at JFK T5, parked EI-ELA at one of the gates yesterday and rumoured start date is March 17th for a St Patrick's Day celebration.

Full operations will start at T5 on 27 March.

[Copenhagen]

BALHR - BA aren't stupid, and playing with FR can and will come back to haunt them. Those four EI slots not being off loaded by FR- they won't be for an Irish service - you can be guaranteed that they will be for their long haul operation.

Ryanair is always one step ahead in the game of chess.

[Fairdealfrank]

Quote: "Go home BALHR, you're drunk"

The perils of under-age drinking?

[BALHR]

It is fair to say LHR is full and any new entrant must obtain slots from a current carrier

BA has no slot shortage, recent new routes domestic , shorthaul, mid haul and longhaul PLUS currently lease slots toother airlines

BA do need to wait for their new aircraft to switch some of their less profitable slots eg DUB to other routes, probably Longhaul .

No commercial sense in buying more slots in current climate when they already have a surplus


They barely have enough slots to compete with its European rivals even after buying BMI (only that has allowed BA to launch more routes), what makes the problem even worse is that LHR AND LGW are full and cannot be expanded

I mean look at it this way, BA currently has 52.5% of the slots at LHR (Along with 20% at LGW), on the other hand Lufthansa has 70% of the slots at FRA and even more so in MUC and Air France-KLM has 60% of the slots at CDG and AMS, all of which can (and do) handle more flights than LHR, that gives them a vast advantage (and I haven’t even got to the other hubs, such as LH’s hubs at ZRH for example)

That is why BA European rivals have more extensive networks to South America (which is taking market share from BA’s sister airline IB), China and Africa than BA, while BA has the advantage (just…) in terms of flights to India and America, LH (with help from UA) is now not that far behind in both cases

So they really need to buy as many slots at LHR + LGW + LCY as legally possible (and I mean really push it to the absolute limit) to prevent BA from falling further behind and keeping up its rivals in Europe, North America and the Middle East

[Meccano]

So, about O'Leary's decision to launch the bid on EI you first say the following:

Lets see Ryanair board made a collective Board decision on the issue and investors don't seem to have had a problem with it EVER and given already written down value to €0.50 then not sure why they would have an issue now.Then you say this in the same post about him taking over the shares himself:

Really ?
Think you would find Institutions beating a path to his door to provide funds to invest. Previous track history and success is a good guide for institutions so find the money would be easy.It seems the irony of your contradictory statements are completely lost on you.
Or rather that you're just happy to reverse your argument when the situation requires.
So which is it? He is the solo boy wonder? Or the Board is responsible for FR's success? Hint: I suggest a hybrid model will suit your argument best here.

Forcing them to sell at €1.06 would put €180 million into the bank with no problem in the world and then let the new shareholder do as they wish. Would you care to translate that piece of gibberish?

Investors like this don't ask for money to be returned each month as putting in €250 Million and taking €750 Million in 5 years time pays a little more that 1.75%.Is that a sure fire GUARANTEED return?
Cos I'm trying to think who might actually be up for that kind of punt in these straightened times.
I would suggest Bondermans own lot, TPG Capital, but they're stinging from another little misadventure of a SURE THING. They invested 510M USD in Midwest Airlines, and recently sold it for 31M USD. Ouch!
And anyhow, Bonderman might be at odds with Micko over ownership of EGSS. All's fair in love and war!
Anyhow, you get the picture. Where airlines are concerned, there is no Sure Fire Guarantee. And a lot of people are indeed questiong Mr.O'Leary's obsession with EI, whether you've noticed or not (obviously not).

Wow so full of bitterness.

Coming up with lots of terms you don't understand.

You really don't get the idea of what The Board of companies are for do you.Bitterness? No.
Schadenfreude, yes.
The man has destroyed enough other people for me (and thousands of others) to look forward to his downfall.
As to the rest of that, you'll have to be more specific.

Companies that invest in Capital equipment are allowed write down the cost of the equipment against profits, over a number of years that has been the position in UK, Ireland and pretty much every country for decades. This is why companies who make money continually invest, to minimise tax.

If you disagree then suggest you write to every govt to change it:rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:I'm thinking - Starbucks!
That would be cool, wouldn't it?
If the hard pressed tax paying public were to suddenly feel exploited by a Corporation which touts a consumer friendly image (as Starbucks and FR does), while arranging to pay a fraction (or zero) tax. Then comes the backlash.
Ah well, we can dream...

Edit

On the subject of Ryanair and taxes, I just read this posting from another thread on this BB. My God, the convolutions! The sheer dodginess! And the Italian thing doesn't seem to be the dead duck you've painted it as....at least not for the poor buggers caught in the crossfire!

It is the intention of the company to provide several different types of contracts through a very complex layer of third party organizations. UK recruitment agencies such as Brookfield and Storm & McGinley, Irish accountant companies such as McNamara, CXC, Scalone, and O'Connor, training organizations such as Dutch CAE or UK East Midlands Training LTD, and even Ryanair LTD themselves are all involved in providing employment contracts to Ryanair pilots.

The same applies to Cabin crew who have to deal with agencies such as: Crewlink, Dalmac (also known as Workforce International), or St. James Management for their employment contracts.

The "management fee" you mention is charged by the above-referred Irish accountants for their services. It is in fact 3% (not 2) on the gross salary, or 1000 euros per year (there are two different sets of charges). These accountants are specifically selected by Ryanair and the recruitment agencies.

Most of the pilots who joined the company in the last 3 years are on the following contract: commonly called the "new" Brookfield contract. Here is how it works:

-Four parties are involved: Ryanair (the "Hirer"), Brookfield Aviation International LTD (the "Contractor"), the pilot's LTD company (the "Service company"), and the pilot (the "service company's representative").

-The pilot MUST create a LTD company (the service company) in Ireland through one of the 4 approved accountants (mentioned above). The pilot cannot freely choose his/her own accountant. These "approved" accountants have a number of ready-made empty shelf companies. 3 pilots (chosen randomly by the accountant) become associates and directors of the company. The pilots have NO CONTROL whatsoever on their own company as the accountant is the sole administrator. The accountant receives monthly payments from the contractor (the agency) and distributes salaries to the directors (the pilots) after deduction of company's expenses (filed by the pilot monthly), the accountant's fee and all Irish income taxes (PAYE, USC) and Irish National insurance (PRSI). The pilot, who is one of the nominated Directors, is in fact salaried through a dodgy and complex structure on which he/she has absolutely no control.

(Ryanair provides a monthly remittance advice to Brookfield. This details the amount of scheduled hours flown by the pilot. Brookfield issues payment to the Irish accountant in accordance with contracted terms. The accountant issues then payment to the pilot after said-deductions. Brookfield and the accountant being the "middle-men" get commissions for their services rendered).

Income Tax and Social Tax issues:

Ryanair has bases all around Europe and operates many domestic routes in Spain, France, Italy and now Greece (amongst others). Pilots (and cabin crew) are BASED in these countries. This means that they start and finish their duty in the same foreign base. Many of these crews aren't Irish citizens, nor Irish residents and in fact some even never ever set foot in Ireland! Many of these crews are Spanish, French or Italian Nationals with their fiscal residence set in their home countries. Their interests are clearly at home and not in Ireland. However, with the employment system described above, they HAVE to comply with the Irish taxation laws:

In January 2011, the Irish Finance Act was modified (Section 127B of TCA 1997) and stated the following:
"Any income arising to any individual whether Resident in the State or not, from any employment exercised onboard an aircraft that is operated in international traffic and where the aircraft is so operated by an enterprise that has its place of effective management in the State (Ireland) shall be chargeable to Tax under schedule E" (Irish Income Tax rates).

In other words ALL crew employed in Ryanair (employees or contractors) must pay their income taxes in Ireland, regardless of their tax obligations in their home countries. Most EU countries have DTA's "Double Taxation Agreements" which 'should' allow workers employed abroad to decide where they want to pay tax (country of residence or country of work). However, the Irish Revenue now disregards the DTA (except for the UK and the Netherlands) and states that the Finance Act supersedes these situations.

Unfortunately for the crews based in France (full time 2007-2011 and summer base 2011-2012), in Italy or in Spain, the situation is becoming increasingly difficult. The local tax man is now knocking at the door of the based crews claiming income (and social) tax which hasn't been paid in the country of residence. Very recently some crews in Bergamo, Italy have received letters from the Italian authorities in that respect.

In regard to social tax, the EU Regulation 465/12 states that social tax must now be paid in the country of residence (for all workers hired after 28 June 2012). This basically means that Ryanair pilots (and cabin crew) working in Italy or Spain (or anywhere else in the EU for that matter) must comply with local regulations in terms of social/national insurance and pay their contributions. Although these are already paid in Ireland through the accountant's administration rules: the PRSI (pay related social insurance) is deducted from the gross salary issued to pilots. By the way, the same applies to Ryanair employees.

Does this means that flight crew will soon have to pay twice? Pay income tax and social tax both in Ireland and country of residence? What will Ryanair do to protect the workforce? Not much IMHO as in fact the "workforce" is not employed by Ryanair but are in fact independent contractors who are self-employed, therefore obliged to maintain contractual and legal obligations.

http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/503843-dutch-tv-reports-ryanair-pilots-denominated-alarm-over-safety-17.html

[BALHR]

There's no need for help, the bid is not going to go through.


But they will be back and will keep doing so until FR are no longer a shareholder...


The only bid they cannot refuse would be 100 years profit given to them up front, including infaltion, short of that they'd be better off with the slots.

EI is here for the long term, it doesn't care about making a quick buck from selling it's LHR slots, it has a lot of liquidity at the moment, they're not strapped for cash and have no need for the extra cash on hand, and even if they were, I'd say EI would sooner sell their entire fleet before they sold their LHR Slots.



How can you predict the next 100 years of profits, there are barely any airlines that have even lasted as long...

EI does have the problem in the fact their biggest shareholder keeping trying to takeover the airline and hold EI hostage, so to fix it, they can sell their LHR slots (which will make them a vast amount of money) and with IAG (who will get involved in return of the sale of EI's LHR slots to them) can buyout MOL/FR out and prevent any future takeover by that airline

Also the term "long-term" does not apply to this industry, it is that unstable...


You don't seem to grasp the fact that EI would make money operating the route itself, rather than letting BA do it on its behalf, so unless BA is going to be so kind as to donate all the profits of that route to EI, and let's face it, never going to happen, then EI are better off doing it themselves. Besides, based on what I've heard about the routes from DUB/BHD -> LHR, EI are wiping the floor with BA when it comes to load factors, yields, punctuality and the number of corperate contracts they have, so why let BA do it when they're going to be forced off the route by EI anyway?


EI are without a doubt making money on LHR-DUB/BHD, but they deal with the "Ryanair" problem and still make money on LHR-DUB/BHD (which they would codeshare on)

Remember if BA/EI combined their LON-IRE routes, yields will rise and thus they are more profitable, so it will have little if any loss of income from those routes overall (while at the same time, dealing with their biggest problem)

In fact its BA that will have a raw deal out of this, but even they benefit in the chance of launching more profitable routes...

Go home BALHR, you're drunk


I am at home already and if I was drunk, I find it hard to even operate the computer in the first place...

BA have being code sharing with EI for years and still are BTW so why would EI code share with them when BA would be unable to provide 12 or 13 daily flights depending on season that EI can. BA are only on DUB route because they took over from BMI and currently have nothing productive to do with the slots or aircraft which is why they are operating the route. BA can't be bothered even offering there own flights for passengers who are connecting from DUB at LHR only the EI ones are offered. It says a lot don't you think...


BA would be able to retain the right amount of frequency (even if its 12 X daily) due to the fact they will have both their own LHR-IRE and EI's LHR-IRE slots as well, besides BA are well known for their route planning

If the LHR-DUB/BHD routes where not countributing overall to the airline, they would have been gone by now, they have already cut the number of routes they got from BMI, personally I was surprised they retained those routes (in the past, they have left it to EI) in the first place...

BALHR - BA aren't stupid, and playing with FR can and will come back to haunt them. Those four EI slots not being off loaded by FR- they won't be for an Irish service - you can be guaranteed that they will be for their long haul operation.

Ryanair is always one step ahead in the game of chess.


Those four EI slots that Ryanair are not planning to sell (I only knew this thanks to a fellow user at this forum) are leased from VS in the first place, so I would be gussing that VS would want them back or launch their own LHR-DUB service (or something else...)

Besides if FR want to launch long-haul routes (they havebeen talkign about it for years, but little has happened), they will simply rebrand EI's TATL flights

FR will face a much harder task on the TATL routes out of LHR due to strong competition already so I doubt if they are interested (the same goes for any route out of LHR...)

[Hangar6]

I think BA should cosy up to EI before its too late for them to recapture their shorthaul feed,

BA europe should just out source all their flights to EI or at least the main city connections ROI NI GERMANY fRANCE etc as clearly the EI approach works

BA have a surplus of slot so wont be buying any or indeed even able to amke money doing it

That will ensure BA grows in LHR

LHR need for a runway extension is probably now passed given ME carriers impact on UK regional airports

Who would choose LHR with the t1 to t5 change when they have the ME , on terminal and a far superior aircraft choice, less stops , impressive in flight services and aircraft lounges

EI might just be the saving of BA shorthaul in LHR ;)

[ryan2000]

Not sure if the EI brand would be as strong on routes from the Continent to LHR.

[Hangar6]

Hi yes agreed tried to PM you but the system beat me

[Meccano]

They can buyout MOL and prevent any future takeover by that airline.
Why would he sell, unless forced to? He's enjoying being a spoiler.

But they will be back and will keep doing so until FR are no longer a shareholder...
Not necessarily. He may indeed be forced to sell. And soon.
Let's wait and see what the UK CA has to say before doing anything drastic, eh?

[BALHR]

I think BA should cosy up to EI before its too late for them to recapture their shorthaul feed,

BA europe should just out source all their flights to EI or at least the main city connections ROI NI GERMANY fRANCE etc as clearly the EI approach works

BA have a surplus of slot so wont be buying any or indeed even able to amke money doing it

That will ensure BA grows in LHR

LHR need for a runway extension is probably now passed given ME carriers impact on UK regional airports

Who would choose LHR with the t1 to t5 change when they have the ME , on terminal and a far superior aircraft choice, less stops , impressive in flight services and aircraft lounges

EI might just be the saving of BA shorthaul in LHR

Frankly I don't see the benefit out of all of this, VS is only doing it so that it can operate the route before the deadline to use them since they cannot order A320s fast enough

BA does have a shortage of slots, since they have a smaller share of the slots then it rivals at the main european hubs (including FRA/MUC and AMS/CDG) which can handle more flights then LHR

The T1-T5 problem can be fixed by expanding T5

Why would he sell, unless forced to? He's enjoying being a spoiler.


To make money out of all of this, otherwise its a waste of shareholders money

Not necessarily. He may indeed be forced to sell. And soon.
Let's wait and see what the UK CA has to say before doing anything drastic, eh?

On what legal basis?

[DollarBill]

BALHR-----besides BA are well known for their route planning


Well with strong yield and load factors on EI in 2012, obviously the poor auld paddies are just throwing darts at the map?*




I think BALHR should go off to the BA thread with his BA centric theories on how EI should allow themselves to be absorbed into BA 'for the benefit of all'





*FR may actually be doing this judging by some of the places they fly to.

[airbourne]

Aer Lingus offer more USA connections from Cardiff « officialwan (http://officialwan.wordpress.com/2012/10/26/aer-lingus-offer-more-usa-connections-from-cardiff/)



Extra choice and easier travel from Cardiff to the USA via Dublin

Aer Lingus has made travelling to the USA from Wales via Dublin even more attractive for Summer 2013.

The schedule will operate with daily services linking Wales and 3 major US Cities via their Dublin hub. Flights are now well timed to ensure clearing US Immigration formalities whilst in transit at Dublin makes the overall journey much quicker and easier for passengers.

The schedule will have daily flights available to New York JFK, Chicago O’Hare and Boston, all with smooth simple transits via Dublin.

Flights will depart Cardiff daily at 11h35, arriving into Dublin at 12h45

Onwards flights to New York JFK depart Dublin at 15h45 arriving at 18h15

operations to Chicago O’Hare will also depart Dublin at 15h45 arriving at 18h10

And services to Boston are planned to depart Dublin at 16h15 arriving at 18h15

On return journeys, flights from New York JFK will depart at 17h40 arriving into Dublin at 05h20

Departing Chicago O’Hare at 15h50 arriving into Dublin at 05h20

Departing Boston at 18h20 arriving into Dublin at 05h15

And all connecting back to Cardiff departing Dublin at 10h00 arriving back to Wales at 11h10

A typical trip between Wales and The USA will now take on average just over 11 hours (including the time spent clearing immigration spent whilst connecting flights via Dublin.) This is much quicker than travelling via London and certainly offers travellers a better opportunity to have a more relaxed journey experience than taking the risks of dealing with the traffic on the M4 motorway and standing in the long queues at immigration halls in the USA.

Flights are available from as low as £545 return from Cardiff to all three cities inclusive of taxes and baggage allowance.

Spencer Birns, Cardiff Airport’s Head of Commercial Operations and Air Service Development commented, “The adjusted schedule, makes choosing to use Aer Lingus from Cardiff to the USA via Dublin a far more attractive travelling option. We encourage Welsh passengers to look into using these flights from Cardiff via Dublin ahead of travelling via London for their journeys to the USA next year.”

[racedo]

So, about O'Leary's decision to launch the bid on EI you first say the following:

Then you say this in the same post about him taking over the shares himself:

It seems the irony of your contradictory statements are completely lost on you.
Or rather that you're just happy to reverse your argument when the situation requires.
So which is it? He is the solo boy wonder? Or the Board is responsible for FR's success? Hint: I suggest a hybrid model will suit your argument best here.




Think you are confusing Michael O'Leary and Ryanair as they are different legal entities.

Michael O'Leary did not bid on Aer Lingus.

FR can sell to whomever they want including IAG or to Michael O'Leary and then bank the cash to do as they wish.

Is that a sure fire GUARANTEED return?
Cos I'm trying to think who might actually be up for that kind of punt in these straightened times.
I would suggest Bondermans own lot, TPG Capital, but they're stinging from another little misadventure of a SURE THING. They invested 510M USD in Midwest Airlines, and recently sold it for 31M USD. Ouch!
And anyhow, Bonderman might be at odds with Micko over ownership of EGSS. All's fair in love and war!
Anyhow, you get the picture. Where airlines are concerned, there is no Sure Fire Guarantee. And a lot of people are indeed questiong Mr.O'Leary's obsession with EI, whether you've noticed or not (obviously not).

Wow so a loss should stop all TPG investment, then again thats 3 years ago or irrelevant really as billions of $ in investment later shows.

As Ryanair has already more than paid any TPG investment back a couple of times I guess they not that worried but do keep trying.

I'm thinking - Starbucks!
That would be cool, wouldn't it?
If the hard pressed tax paying public were to suddenly feel exploited by a Corporation which touts a consumer friendly image (as Starbucks and FR does), while arranging to pay a fraction (or zero) tax. Then comes the backlash.
Ah well, we can dream...



Investing in capital is always allowable to be written down against tax. The idea that somehow Ryanair is any different from any other capital intensive business is laughable. But keep on with the dead horse.

Clearly you really out of your depth in comparing to Starbucks.
Starbucks has few if any capital assets.

As for Italians, fraid nobody is that worried about their tax people, not even Silvio.

[Meccano]

Think you are confusing Michael O'Leary and Ryanair as they are different legal entities.

Michael O'Leary did not bid on Aer Lingus.Sheesh...you really insist on this game of semantics. Enjoying yourself?
Yes Yes, we all KNOW. O'Leary is not FR yadda yadda. Technically. Legally.Etc Etc.
But functionally, and in everything they do and say, he is the face of Ryanair, the boss of Ryanair, the decision maker at Ryanair. The Board are an inconvenient legal encumbrance of the Stock Market, merely there to rubber stamp him and collect a big fat paycheque. Who do you think you're kidding? Maybe yourself alone.

FR can sell to whomever they want including IAG or to Michael O'Leary and then bank the cash to do as they wish.Indeed. At a loss of over 270M euro.
And if its a forced divestment I think they need to be careful who they sell to. Otherwise the whole merry go round of legal actions starts up again, and I expect the people in the UK CA don't like to be made fools off.....

Wow so a loss should stop all TPG investment, then again thats 3 years ago or irrelevant really as billions of $ in investment later shows.It was a 500M USD hit.
Suck THAT up.

As Ryanair has already more than paid any TPG investment back a couple of times I guess they not that worried but do keep trying.Yeah. Some you win, some you lose.

Investing in capital is always allowable to be written down against tax. The idea that somehow Ryanair is any different from any other capital intensive business is laughable. But keep on with the dead horse.True. But when its taken to extremes people start feeling like its taking the mickey. Then comes the backlash.

As for Italians, fraid nobody is that worried about their tax people, not even Silvio. Well I'm sure thats easy for you to say - I doubt you've had a Tax Demand from them drop through your letterbox!
But it wasn't just Italy mentioned in that lengthy article you carefully ignored in my last post! Funny how you pick over my small comments, but ignore vast tracts which are obviously too inconvenient and difficult to waffle away.
Come on now - how can Ryanair justify forcing contract pilots to set up convoluted vehicles for tax purposes? Whats the point? Why not keep your noses out of the pilots tax affairs?

By the way - Silvio was recently sentenced to four years in jail in Italy for Tax Fraud.....

[EI-A330-300]

Ryanair have less than 3 weeks to provide more concessions to the EU if they want to take over EI.

Further concessions from Ryanair sought to rescue Aer Lingus bid - The Irish Times - Fri, Jan 11, 2013 (http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/finance/2013/0111/1224328669970.html)

[BALHR]

Well with strong yield and load factors on EI in 2012, obviously the poor
auld paddies are just throwing darts at the map?*

I think BALHR should go
off to the BA thread with his BA centric theories on how EI should allow
themselves to be absorbed into BA 'for the benefit of all'

*FR may
actually be doing this judging by some of the places they fly to.


I am not suggesting that BA buys EI, all I am suggesting is that BA buys their LHR slots and help them stop a FR takeover altogether....

Ryanair have less than 3 weeks to provide more concessions to
the EU if they want to take over EI.

Further concessions from Ryanair sought to rescue Aer Lingus bid
- The Irish Times - Fri, Jan 11, 2013 (http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/finance/2013/0111/1224328669970.html)

What addtional concessions would be needed and would this involve EI's LHR slots?

[pwalhx]

BALHR you need to lose this fixation with BA getting their hands on EI's slots at LHR it will not happen. There are no sound economic reasons for EI to sell their golden slots as has been explained many times.

[Fairdealfrank]

Quote: "BALHR you need to lose this fixation with BA getting their hands on EI's slots at LHR it will not happen. There are no sound economic reasons for EI to sell their golden slots as has been explained many times."

There's also no need. EI don't need to sell, BA don't need to buy.

[BALHR]

BALHR you need to lose this fixation with BA getting their hands on EI's
slots at LHR it will not happen. There are no sound economic reasons for EI to sell their golden slots as has been explained many times.


The reason why BA is circling round EI's LHR slots is that they are one of the largest slot holders at the airports, beyond them and VS, there is not much left...

EI is slightly better off if they keep then, but they will have to deal with FR, hence I am suggesting that they sell the LHR slots, deal with the FR problem and still make money on LON-IRE...


There's also no need. EI don't need to sell, BA don't need to buy.


BA seem to think otherwise....

Besides, they need them to better compete with its rivals in Europe, North America and the Middle East

Of course the real solution lies neither with BA or EI, but with Westmister...

[pwalhx]

Please stop attributing your thoughts to BA, they are not circling around the slots.

[BALHR]

Please stop attributing your thoughts to BA, they are not circling around the
slots.


They have signed a deal with FR that in the event of their takover of EI, BA will buy their LHR slots...

The big question is well it ever happen?

[ajfreeman]

BALHR are you a journalist or a student? Nothing you write makes any sense, seems more speculation and fantasy than reality in most cases.

[BALHR]

BALHR are you a journalist or a student? Nothing you write makes any sense,
seems more speculation and fantasy than reality in most cases.


This deal has been confirmed recently

[pwalhx]

Yes they have done a deal that in the event that FR buy EI that they will buy the slots. That is spotting an opportunity if it comes along, it is NOT circling around the slots. Quite frankly they would have been stupid to pass up such an offer, however equally I am sure they are well aware it may well never happen.

There is a subtle difference.

[CallBell]

EI is slightly better off if they keep then, but they will have to deal with FR, hence I am suggesting that they sell the LHR slots, deal with the FR problem and still make money on LON-IRE...

Just how slight is the benefit to keeping them? I reckon it's a lot more than slight. In addition, selling LHR slots does not deal with the FR problem, in fact it would add to the already considerable cash pile EI have and make it even more of an attractive take over target by people/companies interested in nothing but that cash pile.

Selling the slots to BA would mean EI having no control over them, and who is to say that BA wouldn't reduce services from DUB/ORK/SNN/BHD over time especially if as you say extra slots would mean them better able to compete on other routes?

Finally, just because BA doesn't hold the same % of LHR slots as AF does at CDG does not mean they are short of slots. Don't they already lease some out to other airlines?

[BALHR]

Yes they have done a deal that in the event that FR buy EI that they will buy the slots. That is spotting an opportunity if it comes along, it is NOT circling around the slots. Quite frankly they would have been stupid to pass up such an offer, however equally I am sure they are well aware it may well never happen.

There is a subtle difference.


My point is that BA are interested in EI's slots and if they felt they had a realistic chance in getting them, they would hence the term "circling"

Currently however its not likely to happen, then again stranger things have happened in this industry...

[pwalhx]

Sorry to all people interested in EI for the thread drift, this will be my last response to BALHR.

Having spent 30+ years working in international trade and logistics I have a pretty good grasp on what the UK Economy needs. If you really believe that the UK Economy is dependent on BA god help us.

Trade is a two way street the UK needs foreign carriers as well as British carriers at Heathrow. Personally I think we need EI at Heathrow and all the other UK airports it supports over here and long may it do so.

[ConstantFlyer]

BALHR - There is quite a debate going on the Sheffield City Airport thread that could use your insight.

[Cian]

The big question is well it ever happen?


No. It won't. Stop dreaming.

[Laasjet]

The only way to deal with the irritant BALHR is deprive him of the oxygen of response. He needs this to convince himself of his importance.

Let him go away and do student things if he has that status.

[Jamie2k9]

Aer Lingus are expected to use two of there own A320 and lease two A320 that Meridiana Fly operated for VS deal. So there own fleet will not be reduced as a result of the deal.

BA/LHR I don't know why I entraining you but this bull about the % of slots BA have at LHR over AF/KLM at there home airports. These airports have greater capacity than LHR so the % of slots to the main carrier will be greater than that of LHR. Until LHR builds a 3rd runway BA will NOT have any more slots. The sooner you accept this then people will find the fourm readable and not in its current form.

Now there is nothing stopping BA dropping there 7 daily service from DUB (soon to be 5) and using these slots to compete with there European counterparts as you like to put it. Nothing stopping them using EI to feed the passengers but you think for some reason it would be better for BA operating and EI codesharing. Any particulor reason?

[Aerlingus231]

Any word on when the new A319's will be arriving in?

[Fairdealfrank]

Quote: "Trade is a two way street the UK needs foreign carriers as well as British carriers at Heathrow. Personally I think we need EI at Heathrow and all the other UK airports it supports over here and long may it do so."

Quite right! How many UK airports is it? about 18?



Quote: "BALHR - There is quite a debate going on the Sheffield City Airport thread that could use your insight."

Aaaargh! what have the good folk of Sheffield done to deserve this!



Quote: "The only way to deal with the irritant BALHR is deprive him of the oxygen of response. He needs this to convince himself of his importance.

Let him go away and do student things if he has that status."

Like protesting, demonstrating, boycotting lectures, occupying the college..........oops, sorry, forgot, it's not the 1970s.

[Cian]

Quite right! How many UK airports is it? about 18?


Not quite that much. Think it's 12 now on GB, then BHD (in the UK but not guaranteed to be classed as such), IOM (not "in" the UK but could be classed as such) and JER (ditto).

LTN is terminated now as it was just WAT left.

It's a few less than I'd like to see them at but I'm not sure there is actually demand for LBA/NCL/NQY or at least not for two carriers.

[ben nevis]

Article circulating the bars of thurles indicates an interview with willie Walsh when he was 5 years old and his ambition to get the top job in BA and to start giving away the BA slots to Ei to further an ambition for their links into Knock, Shannon and cork and then onto US and Canada. Any thoughts BA/LHR person you may have your views all wrong concerning EI LHR slots so understand if you need to do some research and express an opinion on another subject.

[EI-A330-300]

The EU are not happy with how firm the British Airways and Flybe deals that FR made to them. Not many other carriers FR can go to and offer a deal..

[Aerlingus231]

Added to my ignore list, the only person there, now if everyone else does this we can move on with the actual discussion at hand.

My other post seems to have gotten lost in the fray, but does anyone know when the next 2 A319's are due in?

[irishlad06]

due march sometime i would expect, im nearly sure i read it somewhere for the start of the summer season

[Aerlingus231]

They're starting in March, that much I know, so I'd be expecting them in in the next couple weeks to get painted out before entry into service, the previous two were in storage in Dublin for 6 months before they started operations, these two obviously won't be delivered as far in advance. Just wondering if anyone exactly knows when we'll get to see them first arrive?

[PPRuNe Pop]

Matter as reported now dealt with. Thanks. Keep Calm and Carry on!

[Hangar6]

Thanks Mod for your action...

Now , at 124 today the EI share price is moving up towards FR bid offer of 130

With a noted jump over the last week of 12%
Not too exciting but it makes me wonder what is happening

ROI GVT wont sell to FR but their share holding is up for grabs and they have been out thought by MOL before as we know
Etihad are looking to buy shares
MOL awaits the final word on his bid from EU
UK regulater is still mulling the FR shareholding
2012 was a great year for EI given the climate and 2013 looking even better
Pension issue possibly resolved ....possibly

So why the big share movement this week?

Now I am a capitalist so share prices I know are decided by a bunch of suited gamblers, usual in garish pinstrips and these gents and maybe the odd lady react to rumours innuendo and titbits of news to buy or sell shares

I wonder what is driving the price this week ?
Market forces are a mystery to me , but what is the market thinking ?

any views

[Sober Lark]

.....interesting

Just optomistic forecasts for second half of year.

[MCDU2]

There are so few shares in free float that any moderate level of trading tends to have a significant impact on price. What with EY, FR, govt, O'Brien, Tailwind plus any that the esot still might have there is only a small percentage out there for free trade.

That would be my take.

[dublinaviator]

According to the Sunday Business Post, 1.2 million shares changed hands at 10:45 this morning:

The Sunday Business Post (http://www.businesspost.ie/#!story/Home/News/Aer+Lingus+shares+up+2%25+on+high+volumes/id/19410615-5218-50f5-2b8a-330d09233624)

Share price is now hovering around €1.23, edging closer to Ryanair's offer of €1.30. Something is definitely going on behind the scenes, and if I had to guess I'd say Etihad are increasing their shareholding.

[Stevek]

SHARES in Aer Lingus (http://searchtopics.independent.ie/topic/Aer_Lingus) rose sharply this morning on heavy trading amid speculation that Ryanair (http://searchtopics.independent.ie/topic/Ryanair) will make more concessions in its quest to takeover the airline.

Shares in Aer Lingus rise sharply as Ryanair willing to submit more concessions - Irish, Business - Independent.ie (http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/shares-in-aer-lingus-rise-sharply-as-ryanair-willing-to-submit-more-concessions-3354186.html)

[Aerlingus231]

Not sure if this is good or bad news, If Etihad Is growing it's stake and driving demand up, then good, but if the Ryanair bid is gaining the opinion that it could go through this is very very bad news for everyone.

If the price went above €1.30, would this effectively rule out the Ryanair bid, possibly lead to them selling or what? Was this their goal to begin with, get the price to go up so they could cut their losses?

[Sober Lark]

Do you really think Shamrock grows that well in the desert?

[Hangar6]

Somewhat ironic if FR offer lapses as share price goes over 130 .....still a wee further upswing in price and even my wee holding gets into the black, happy days ,

If EU gives go ahead , share price sitting at 133 , ROI GVT holding not in play for FR along with Etihad's holding, what's the point for MOL ?other than he gets to make less of a horrendous loss on his original investment ...

[racedo]

Somewhat ironic if FR offer lapses as share price goes over 130 .....still a wee further upswing in price and even my wee holding gets into the black, happy days ,

If EU gives go ahead , share price sitting at 133 , ROI GVT holding not in play for FR along with Etihad's holding, what's the point for MOL ?other than he gets to make less of a horrendous loss on his original investment ...

What Ryanair offer ?

There isn't one on the table.

[TRY2FLY]

http://www.thejournal.ie/aer-lingus-emergency-landing-756450-Jan2013/

[Meccano]

Thanks Mod for your action...

Now , at 124 today the EI share price is moving up towards FR bid offer of 130

With a noted jump over the last week of 12%
Not too exciting but it makes me wonder what is happening

ROI GVT wont sell to FR but their share holding is up for grabs and they have been out thought by MOL before as we know
Etihad are looking to buy shares
MOL awaits the final word on his bid from EU
UK regulater is still mulling the FR shareholding
2012 was a great year for EI given the climate and 2013 looking even better
Pension issue possibly resolved ....possibly

So why the big share movement this week?

Now I am a capitalist so share prices I know are decided by a bunch of suited gamblers, usual in garish pinstrips and these gents and maybe the odd lady react to rumours innuendo and titbits of news to buy or sell shares

I wonder what is driving the price this week ?
Market forces are a mystery to me , but what is the market thinking ?

any views

My view is that O'Leary is putting it out that he'll be increasing his bid offer price.
Like I said - 6.50 or no deal.
C'mon Micko, you want? Ready up!

[Bearcat]

Is Michael not constrained under a time frame from upping his bid? If not he could blow the thing out of the water with a size able increase in his bid backed by his new best buddy in Willie walsh and IAG. Interesting times.

[Cian]

He can't bid at all for a period - he withdrew his bid and is barred under (Irish, to emphasise after I got jumped on before) Takeover Panel rules from bidding again yet.

[peacock1]

How long is ducksie barred for ?

[Bearcat]

Jeez haven't heard the "ducksie" nickname in yonks.....for all those not in the know, M O'Ls nickname from his old alma mater.

[fraggleoc]

Aer Lingus has said that the European Commission’s investigation into Ryanair’s bid for the airline may be subject to a short extension to facilitate a “renewed round of market testing”.
The Sunday Business Post (http://www.businesspost.ie/#!story/Home/News/Ryanair+bid+investigation+deadline+may+be+extended%2C+says+A er+Lingus/id/19410615-5218-50fe-cb27-d480c9931105)

[racedo]

No need for market testing if a decision already decided on, either way.

Handing over routes and returning to them in 3 years time, if a desire was there to do so, is I believe is perfectly acceptable.

There can not be a clause never to return as that would be legally unenforceable long term.

[racedo]

Racedo, can you explain to the Irish consumer how giving away 43 routes to a loss making regional carrier with non Irish connections is good for the consumer?


You want competition but now because its "non Irish" are you suggesting its somehow not good for the consumer.

As for loss making....................given Aer Lingus losses over last 5 years I don't think that can be used as a prerequisite as to who can fly the route.


And how giving away the London routes to an airline whose only interest is to shut the route and use the slots elsewhere?
I accept that for Ryanair it's an exceptionally good deal, particularly as you agree that after 3 years Ryanair would return and run the others off the route to create a monopoly. No question, win win for Ryanair. But the consumer would end up the loser, of that I think we can also agree.

BA have more than enough slots are LHR and why shut a route which makes money ? or are you suggesting that LHR routes loses money from Ireland ?

As for anything Ryanair would do then that is up to Ryanair board at that point in time.

3 years is a long time in Aviation and anything can occur in that time.

[DollarBill]

Racedo-As for loss making....................given Aer Lingus losses over last 5 years I don't think that can be used as a prerequisite as to who can fly the route.Well they have been profitable in 2010 and 2009. Current estimates are for approx 100M profit in 2012. I can't deny the losses occured in 2008 and 2009 but they were before the extensive cost reduction and streamlining program.

I have to concur with the opinion of Flybe as non-Irish. While that lable is not nice it does remain valid that Flybe do not have a loyalty and brand awareness to equal that of EI in Ireland. (Sometime I am sure FR have factored into their planning) In fact it could actually take Flybe 3 years to properly make use of those EI routes, by which time FR can swoop in and reopen them all with their multitude of B737's.

Another option could be FR waiting 2-3 years and closing the remaining 50% of EI shorthaul. Unsustainable route network, no economy of scale could be the quoted buzzwords.

[mart901]

Thank you dollar bill, beat me to it! In fact Aer Lingus is one of the few airlines in europe making profit on short haul (the very thing at stake) and given virtually everything they do originates in Ireland and they have fought back massively for the market share they now enjoy, its little wonder Ryanair want to take them over/wipe them out. If Aer Lingus is profiting and growing on its home turf and Ryanair has reduced its operations, I would question is their gain Ryanair's loss to some degree? The irony of it all is over the years Ryanair has rather noisily established itself as the the business that transformed Irish aviation and boosted passenger/tourist numbers in the process of tackling monopoly, now it wants to form its own. Nobody has managed to compete with them on Irish routes except Aer Lingus, despite no longer having state hand outs and now a much smaller concern.

[racedo]

Racedo, you're getting a little confused. Flybe is a heavily loss making regional airline with little brand recognition in Ireland. Aer Lingus is a heavily profitable airline with a strong balance sheet and enormous brand awareness. The losses of years ago are irrelevant as the business is now very different

Brand awareness in Ireland only as outside of that it pretty much doesn't exist.

Flybe are 50% family owned with IAG holding a minority shareholding

Claiming you want to ensure competition but then starting to say well it must have brand recognition in Ireland is trying to impose new hurdles.


.
To suggest that Flybe can provide the same level of competition to ryanair in the Irish market is a fallacy. And you and your boss know this. Which is fine for you as your only remit is to serve the shareholders of your company, who will benefit enormously from removing AL from the Irish market. No need to be shy about admitting this as you're only doing your job by carrying out your fiduciary duties.

As I live in Surrey and don't work for Ryanair then will ignore the rest of the personal dig because your debating points now appear to consist of Flybe is not an Irish Airline.

[i am a bee too]

Why iseveryoneforgetting that Seamus Brennan TD Rip ordered Aerlingus to stop flying to Stansted to let Ryanair have a London route without competitionn.. They were almost broke at the time.

[Shamrock350]

Brand awareness in Ireland only as outside of that it pretty much doesn't exist.
What exactly is your point?

The initial brand awareness point was raised in relation to FlyBe potentially taking on 40% of the Aer Lingus short haul network so whether you believe Aer Lingus brand awareness exists outside of Ireland is irrelevant. The fact is if FlyBe were to take on and operate this 40% they would have a very tough time even with the possible 3 year breathing space without the direct Ryanair competition as their brand is far weaker in Ireland and practically unknown in Europe.

So if we're going to talk about brand awareness for flights to/from Ireland (which we are), I think it's pretty clear Aer Lingus have got FlyBe beat.

Why iseveryoneforgetting that Seamus Brennan TD Rip ordered Aerlingus to stop flying to Stansted to let Ryanair have a London route without competitionn.. They were almost broke at the time.
Maybe because it's ancient history, all part of the politics back then. Sadly that doesn't stop some people bringing up the days when Aer Lingus used to rip off the travelling public (along with every other national airline) to back up their weak argument for supporting the take over.

[floss689]

It seems very obvious to me that MOL's eventual goal is to have a monopoly on the Irish market without any competition from EI or FlyBe. If he takes control, Aer Lingus will be halved over night and in 3 years time probably won't exist at all. In FlyBe, he has picked the perfect airline as there is no way they could compete with Ryanair once he can reopen overlapping routes in 3 years time. In 3 years time, (if he gets it) Flybe will be run off the all their routes by Ryanair, as they have done countless times before to other carriers. EI will be gone and the the only way in or out of Ireland will be with Ryanair. How is this good for competition? How could this be allowed to happen to a profit making?

[Skipness One Echo]

As I live in Surrey and don't work for Ryanair

Are you with Brookfield as well then? :rolleyes:
Sorry, couldn't resist....

[Stevek]

I'm really starting to get confused I thought the idea was Ryanair would still operate the 43 overlapping routes. However, EI's routes would be given to a competitor. So FR will still operate along side FlyBe? Otherwise it makes absolutely no sense for the consumer as there'll be no competition from the outset!

[racedo]

Sure and it's from the goodness of your heart that your expend so much effort in this website doing nothing else but defending Ryanair and belittling everyone else.

Why are you so keen to make this thread one where you chucking personal stuff about ?

[racedo]

I'm really starting to get confused I thought the idea was Ryanair would still operate the 43 overlapping routes. However, EI's routes would be given to a competitor. So FR will still operate along side FlyBe? Otherwise it makes absolutely no sense for the consumer as there'll be no competition from the outset!

Whose idea ?

[pwalhx]

Racedo I do not think the last question was personal, in fact quite reasonable. If as you say you have no connection with Ryanair please could you share with us why you are so ardent in their defence and so dismissive of their competition. Nothing personal at all in that merely curious.

[Shamrock350]

So Ryanair claims Aer Lingus is "going nowhere" on the same day Etihad invite them to join their 'centre of excellence' initiative.

:ouch:

Also Ryanair doesn't believe in monopolies. Good one.

Ryanair not interested in monopoly, says Millar - The Irish Times - Thu, Jan 24, 2013 (http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/finance/2013/0124/1224329224767.html#.UQEC8TAw5fw.twitter)

Etihad 'eager to increase ties with Aer Lingus'

Etihad boss Hogan 'eager to increase ties with Aer Lingus' - Irish, Business - Independent.ie (http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/etihad-boss-hogan-eager-to-increase-ties-with-aer-lingus-3363444.html)

[Hangar6]

Last year 28Feb saw interim results published for 2011

So fair to say we can assume same date or thereabouts for 2012 results, which neatly .... comes before the EU determination on 7 March re FR hostile takeover, profit was made no doubt avout that, also pension issue might just have moved forward in a positive agreed by all way.

So EU will have taken a very long vonsidered approach before they make a decion, IMO turning down FR but an appeal will follow for sure.

Still 2013 potentially is an even better year for EI after 3 years of well managed profit in trying times.

FR are putting forward BE as the carrier of choice for EI regional routes , recent press re BE is notpositive and contraction NOT expansion is on the cards for them.

Odd that we read FR saying how EI will have a bright future under FR, yet the first thing that will happen is early lease exits, EIR will loose routes EI will loose routes ....different messages coming from the same building

Still the next few weeks will see plenty FR noise spin and conjecture , amazing how much time and money FR are spending on what they call a small regional loss making airline with no future........

[Epsomdog]

I agree with your sentiments.

Do you think Aer Lingus will ever shake him off?

MOL can hardly argue that he's not been a disruptive influence over EI affairs!
I wonder what the UK competition authority will think?

[bucko]

Does anyone think that it's more than coincidence that the Commission's date for a decision has been put back to early March, reportedly the same time as the UK Competition Authority is due to make it's decision re FR's shareholding? Given the furore in the last week over the UK's future in the EU would it be politically embarrassing if the EU came to a decision that was the opposite of the Competition Authority's?

Had a read of the FR offer document for EI, have to say there is now an awful lot of contradiction between the stated plans for EI and the proposed remedies. If the deal got the green light and the remedies were carried, where is the stated short haul expansion going to go? Firstly the capacity used on the conceded routes would have to be deployed elsewhere before any expansion could take place, and secondly, as a consequence would the stated increase in flight deck/ cabin crew/engineers go with them? I can only see this resulting in a net loss of positions in Ireland unfortunately and an awful lot of redundancies or forced relocation. Factor in the huge doubt it would put over the EIR operation, the potential monopoly that might occur this along with the resultant leverage FR will have against the DAA this will be politically unpalatable for the Irish government and I would say they are actively lobbying against it.

[dublinaviator]

bucko its completely irrelevant what decision the UK Competition Authority makes because the ultimate decision lies with the European Commission and any appeals thereafter with the European Court of Justice, who have already ruled on the issue of Ryanair's stake in Aer Lingus which is what the UK CA is investigating.

And aside from being a waste of UK taxpayers money, it also sets a dangerous precedent because the UK are essentially sending out the message to other countries that it's ok to attempt to block the merging over 2 airlines in another jurisdiction simply because they overlap on some route into and out of that country. So because BMI flew to Dublin, it would have been acceptable for the Irish Competition Authority to investigate BA's takeover of BMI and attempt to block it if it found reasons to do so, even though the takeover would have limited impact on Ireland.

As things stand, the Irish government is against Ryanair's takeover of Aer Lingus. But had it been supportive of it, and the European Commission approved it, the UK Competition Authority attempting to overstep it's remit and block the takeover of 2 companies based outside it's jurisdiction could spark a massive bilateral dispute.

So to answer your question, I doubt that's why the EC extending the probe deadline.

[Meccano]

bucko its completely irrelevant what decision the UK Competition Authority makes because the ultimate decision lies with the European Commission....
The UK Court of Appeal ruled in May on the OFT’s actions and concluded that the “duty of sincere co-operation” between the UK and EU meant that it was right to hold off its scrutiny until the EU court process was at an end. But it did not deny the UK OFT's right to proceed afterward (if appropriate) to make a determination on the Ryanair holding.

....and any appeals thereafter with the European Court of Justice, who have already ruled on the issue of Ryanair's stake in Aer Lingus which is what the UK CA is investigating.

I believe they ruled that under broader EU rules that Ryanair was not required (by them) to divest, but the UK CA looks at UK specific conditions, and can indeed rule against Ryanair if it so wishes. The result of which could be forced divestment.

I would also remind you that Google and Microsoft - some of the biggest companies in the world - have lost cases in the EU Courts. So dont imagine FR cannot also.

And aside from being a waste of UK taxpayers money, it also sets a dangerous precedent because the UK are essentially sending out the message to other countries that it's ok to attempt to block the merging over 2 airlines in another jurisdiction simply because they overlap on some route into and out of that country.
And because they wish to do business in the UK while being in breach of UK consumer protection regulations.

So because BMI flew to Dublin, it would have been acceptable for the Irish Competition Authority to investigate BA's takeover of BMI and attempt to block it if it found reasons to do so, even though the takeover would have limited impact on Ireland.

I don't think it would have blocked it at all! It would simply have said don't do business in Ireland if that's your intent.

As things stand, the Irish government is against Ryanair's takeover of Aer Lingus. But had it been supportive of it, and the European Commission approved it, the UK Competition Authority attempting to overstep it's remit and block the takeover of 2 companies based outside it's jurisdiction could spark a massive bilateral dispute.

I have absolutely no doubt that all these decisions carry a political element.
Maybe if Micko was less of a mouth he'd get a better hearing.
You see, there is a price eventually for being an ass and pissing off all and sundry in positions of power.
Hubris.

[Jamie2k9]

DUB-IAD and SNN-ORD now part of UA/EI codeshare agreement.

AerLingus Begins UNITED Trans-Atlantic Codeshare Service from late-Jan 2013 | Airline Route – Worldwide Airline Route Updates (http://airlineroute.net/2013/01/30/eiua-codeshare-jan13/?utm_source=twitter%2C%2Bweibo&utm_medium=social%2Bmedia&utm_campaign=tweets130130)

[Hangar6]

2012 prelim results and JAN 2013 traffic stats due 6feb
should be interesting

see EI share price at 129......makes MIL 130 previous offer look cheap

Some much news from FR end re EI takeover attempt, getting hard to see anything other than desperation on FR side at this stage.

still only annother month of it....

[Sober Lark]

8.2% increase in revenue for 2012. Profits before exceptional items 40.7% to €69.1m. 10.8 m pax. Load 77.7%.

I don't get this Flybe Ireland and BA thing. An agreement not to compete secures competition? Worse still if they expect the EU authorities to believe it.

[davidjohnson6]

Sharks are circling and it's all very dangerous for Aer Lingus and employees right now - it's all about persuading investors, Irish Govt and Brussels right now. Aer Lingus will need to be paying a LOT of money for political lobbyists, public relations, lawyers, bank and other advisers in their defence. You may think this would be bad for Ireland, but the message needs to be put out to all the decision makers involved

[Meccano]

The market price of EI shares has hit 1.30 this morning, in advance of the FY results due later. I predict the price will climb higher.

So, with the share price at 1.31 or above, what is the advantage for a shareholder to sell to FR at 1.30?

O'Leary will have to increase his offer, significantly. As I predicted.

The Irish Government have already said they won't sell to him. Personally I believe they will, but only if the price is right, and that means MONEY.
Lots and lots of MONEY.

Since FR is offering 100M in cash to FlyBE they obviously have it to spend and are willing to spend it. That 100M, if applied to the bid offer price, would increase the offer to 1.50 per share.
Still not good enough, but you can see where this is heading.

[Sober Lark]

I agree David. The bargaining power and strongest competitive force in the equation is Ryanair and it certainly would be a bad result for ransom island.

[Tooloose]

...and draw up its business plan...

[NABLAG]

If MOL gets his way (and I hope he doesn't) this will put Irish aviation (and perhaps tourism) back 10 years at least.

Hands off Aer Lingus.

[Bearcat]

De facto, buying out Flybe with the 100m deal.

If FR get EIN, you will see EIN off the map within 5 yrs.....mass unemployment in EIN with euro contractors taking their place.

This is end game stuff....lots of smoke n mirrors going on in backround.

[j636]

Great set of result, CEO has said this morning that Flybe proposels are "not going to fly".

Also saw on points on the presentations:
1 - New summer schedule 2013 has triggered the strongest revenue bookings in our history for consecutive days in January 2013

2 - New Summer schedule 2013 is attractive to partners and has caused multiple code share/interline requests.

3 - Wet Lease of A330-200 for 3 winter seasons to a tour operator to operate various Caribbean routes. Details disclused in due course.

[Ondale]

Aer Arann would be gone as well (more job losses) - An airline that has recovered significantly in the past 2 years from bankrupcy to become a real player in the regional space through its relationship with EI and provided significant customer choice to some destinations where they compete with Ryanair

[Lord Lardy]

If the deal is to be approved and if I was in EIN management I would immediately mount a take over bid for the loss making Flybe straight away. A market capitilisation of just 36 or so million is small change to Aer Lingus. Throw a 30% margain on top of this and it would make it attractive to Flybe shareholders who without it face a very uncertain future. This would throw an Flybe/Ryanair deal out the window. I would also make it clear that it would be the end of Flybe management in its current form. This deal for Flybe in my opinion one way or another could ultimately sink the company. If the bid is succesful it may sink it very quickly or if not it will almost certainly be the death of the company within a few years. The only airline in my opinion that would merit a deal such as the one proposed to compete would have been Easyjet. Had this been the case it would be approved at European level. They would have posed an enormous threat to Ryanair and as such they picked the vulnerable loss making regional airline instead knowing that when they sneeze in a couple of years time they will annihilate them for good.

An approval like this as proposed in it's current format would be nothing short of collusion of the highest order allowing one company to effectively pay another through a combination of cash and assests to collude in taking out it's main opposition. Not it's own cash it has to be said either. Not only should it not be allowed, in my opinion it should not even be allowed as a proposition in the first place. With all the rules and regulations at corporate level these days I'm surprised it's even legal to make such a proposition. The sooner the EU dismiss this the better and let Aer Lingus and Ryanair both continue to compete for the better of the consumer. This proposed takeover is nothing short of establising an ultimate monopoly of unprecedented levels in a very short time.

[no slot]

It's over. MOL lost. The remedies are farcical. He's cornered and desperate. When will his board cut him off.

I never underestimated his abilities in this process, however, now its very clear he's lost his way.

There is nothing radical about his remedy package, he's having a laugh now and is abusing Flybe.

Time to move on, if he wants to be rid of AL, why not take them on toe to toe out of Dublin and see who's left standing. Its been an irritating few years watching him clown around.

[EI-BUD]

Understanding MOLs motivation for a takeover is telling of a lot of tales and potentially shows where the weaknesses in the FR model are plus the lengths FR will go to wipe out the the potential theats...


A strong brand in its home territory who has managed costs to be competitive against FR who's sole USP is price - hence when the FR model cannot wipe this out, or make the yield required in competing markets, the easiest thing is to use your cash reserves to take it over hence oliminate the threat
I believe that FR struggle on some routes against EI and EIR, e.g. Bristol, etc. FR cannot penetrate EI to the extent where EI cannot manage due to EI reasonable cost base, and ability to use interconnetions.
EIR, through the EI branding can compete and win in commuter markets where 738 cannot fit in terms of their size, this issue will not go away and 'linking up' with BE is a very clever attempt to disarm a competitor that they cannot penetrate on thin regional routes.
My view is that a FR take over of EI is a complete disaster if it happens, FR's long terms goal is to wipe out all threats and the long game is to control Irish Avation and Irish airports, namely DUB. If USA routes were FRs interest, they could have went off and spent a hell of a lot less in developing their own.

The net effect for the Island of Ireland (ROI & NI) will be a loss of jobs, jobs will go abroad, NI base closed and potentially service go to UK airlines ie BA on London, where their crew are London based. Plus an impact on tourism, why would FR grow from airport with higher costs than many of the EU alternatives.

This 3 year deal on EI routes is for a short time and after that period the question is what will happen then? Is the EU thinking about the long run or only the next 3 years. Very short sighted me thinks...

EI-BUD

[Sober Lark]

Then obviously Flybe's real part in this multifaced game of competition is short term monetary gain and then they're gone.

[Meccano]

"It seems to me so far fetched, this proposition, that we don't bother wasting our time on it," Aer Lingus chief executive Christoph Mueller told journalists.
"We question very much that Flybe will be an independent competitor to Ryanair and we are working from the assumption that we will be around next year when we talk" at Aer Lingus's 2013 results announcement, he said.


Just imagine the picture in the FlyBE Boardroom on the day O'Leary marches in to lay down the law. There'll be a lot of effing and blinding, and the FlyBE Board will soon know exactly who is in control.

"I gave you 100M of my money - you do as I effing tell you, or else". etc etc.

When you deal with the devil you better be ready for the consequences.

[Laasjet]

Meccanos final line is particularly apt.

The Fly Be CEO can't far from retirement. This arrangement would get him over the next few years as MOL's yesman after which he could be off with his bag of gold.

[akerosid]

It does smell more and more of desperation with each passing day. As FR barters off bits of EI here and there to other carriers (why they lower themselves to get involved in this, I don't know - maybe desperation on BE's part?), it becomes more and more clear that FR's and MOL's aim is to kill Aer Lingus; it IS about stifling competition and frankly, I think we've got to the stage where if the EU Competition Commissioner were to approve this proposal, its reputation would be permanently tarnished.

I think EI-BUD hits the nail on the head when talking about EI Regional; this has been a big success. This has been a major thorn in FR's side and one can understand FR wanting to get rid of it. It is only likely to expand, thus putting further pressure on FR's Ireland-UK regional routes.

I think the question now is, what happens when the bid is rejected again? MO'L/FR can't be forced to sell, but might the UK OFT investigation be a weapon to force FR to sell up? Probably grasping at straws, but perhaps the OFT is taking note of the desperate means FR is using to destroy (not just take over) Aer Lingus and it must now be clear that FR is a hostile shareholder - and its continued shareholding of EI is not in the public interest.

[EISNN]

We will also fly one Airbus A330 aircraft during the next two winter seasons, with an option for a further one, on behalf of a major European tour operator which will improve aircraft utilisation in the low season.





Anyone got any ideas where they are going to fly and on behalf of who?

[Mlinnie]

Can I just ask what positives would come out of this if FR took over EI for the public...absolutely none.
It's a complete mess, all O'Leary wants is to get rid of the only airline that can successfully compete with FR head to head. Dominate Irish aviation and get a hold of those all important long haul routes.
Oh but BE will be competing with FR ? :rolleyes: Flybe, the airline in huge financial troubles and with hardly any brand recognition on the republic ? Should do well... Oh and BA will acquire the Ireland-LHR routes, I wonder how long that will last...
This isn't like BA taking over BMI, I think we sort of seen that coming, BMI were a loss making airline, however Aer Lingus are profitable and are growing, constantly growing. This year we'll probably see a huge increase on Transatlantic EI flights, EIR will expand also.
Why get rid of Aer Lingus ? With them all important LHR slots and AMS slots which are vital for BHD, ORK, SNN and DUB. If this takeover bid doesn't go ahead, look how far EI can expand. A350s for long haul routes and possibly to Asia. A321 Neos at Shannon, Cork and Belfast to expand transatlantic wise whilst making a profit.
I don't care what people say, Aer Lingus are Ireland's National Carrier, Ireland's airline, one of the oldest out there with a long and interesting history. So why get rid of it ?
Just look at the collapse of Malev... FR were in Budapest like a shot with big expansion plans and look what's happened now...
If this takeover bid gets the go ahead I will literally loose faith in humanity :ugh:

[Jack1985]

Found this quite amusing and also to be fully true..

http://i45.tinypic.com/20qifdl.png

[adfly]

Well Thomas Cook are getting an extra A330 next winter season which is in a different configuration to their current ones, to operate some new routes to the caribbean ex. MAN, a case of 2 and 2 make 4?

[Jack1985]

Well Thomas Cook are getting an extra A330 next winter season which is in a different configuration to their current ones, to operate some new routes to the caribbean ex. MAN, a case of 2 and 2 make 4?

"We will also fly one Airbus A330 aircraft during the next three winter seasons on behalf of a major European tour operator which will improve aircraft utilisation in the low season.".. Aer Lingus announces 40% profits surge | BreakingNews.ie (http://www.breakingnews.ie/business/aer-lingus-announces-40-profits-surge-583771.html)

[JobsaGoodun]

Oh but BE will be competing with FR ? Flybe, the airline in huge financial troubles and with hardly any brand recognition on the republic ? Should do well...

FR may compete on the same routes, but not the same citypair. I doubt you'll see FR at prime EU airport like CDG or FRA etc so I can imagine that these are the routes that they will likely give up. This is likely enough for Flybe would benefit - after all, if they were loosing lots of money now, you'd be seeing Aer Lingus struggling and judging by their latest figures things look pretty good.

...and really, do we consider BE to be in 'huge' financial troubles?? Lets not over exaggerate...sure they are forecast to make losses in the current year but even at £15m, this is still only 2% of their annual turnover. Believe me, that's not a big loss for an airline - ask AF about Cityjet or LH about BMI.

[racedo]

Not sure of the desperation of FR but definitely desperation of users on PPRuNe.....

Pre tax profit dropped by 51% year on year and effectively lost same in Q4 as they did in Q4 2011. Its taking 1.9% more in Revenue as it was in 2008.

As for idea of price at €1.30, reason its at that is because of previous offer has set that as a base.

Based on what you will see in a standard takeover, a price is offered which the share moves at or close to often above in the hope of a higher price, pretty often a second offer made at a higher price to encourage even more acceptance. Nobody offers best price straight away.

I guess issue shareholders will need to consider is that Ryanair potential new offer is keeping the share price at its current level, dividend yield is 3% (Dividend / Share Price) on existing price or about the same as AIB will give you in Ireland in a desposit account but your money is safe in the bank.

But if you bought at €2.20 at float will it ever reach that again or if offer is rejected will share price crash below €1 and you never get your money back.

So either you hold on hoping capital growth above €2.20................could be a while, dividends get a lot better......doubtful or you take what you can get now and get 3% in the bank.

Everything is possible BUT if was undervaluing as much as people think then share price would have passed €1.30 a long time ago.

IF a bid is allowed to go ahead then it will be the Hedge funds and Institutions who have block holdings who will be the king makers ..................depends on how much profit they will make.

But then again with pension deficit ruling not yet been made it makes it interesting how Aer Lingus could fund a €500 pension deficit if court decides that is what its liability is.

[Zag23]

Is there a special racepoo ignore button?:ugh:

[Aerlingus231]

Yeh, just add him to your ignore users list...

[j636]

Accoding to Aer Lingus Group website their shares hit 1.32 today at some point, now showing 1.31.

[Bearcat]

Share price from the LSE now 1:40......what's goin on?

[EISNN]

In fact they hit €1.411 at one point today. According to Goodbody Stockbrokers website.

[claiomh]

Obviously some heavy trading going on- is there any chance it could be Ryanair looking to increase their stake before the decision? Maybe EI buying back some shares or EY? I presume.if the price stays this high EI's shareholders would reject the bid?:confused:

[DollarBill]

Well it shows that the FR shareholding has artificial deflated the EI share price.......it could however be institutional investors buying in on the chance that FR will offer 1.50 or more if given the go ahead. Does anyone know can they increase their bid?

Didn't the EI CEO state last year that based on assets/slots/cash reserves that EI was actually worth 1.70. Of course this is the same for many companies, share value is a reflection of the level of trading and the attractiveness of the stock portfolio.

I know the 1st bid was stopped, the 2nd was withdrawn before it could be closed/ended, this is the 3rd attempt and we will soon see how this pans out. I believe FR have a one final shot if this bid is shut down.

[racedo]

Obviously some heavy trading going on- is there any chance it could be Ryanair looking to increase their stake before the decision? Maybe EI buying back some shares or EY? I presume.if the price stays this high EI's shareholders would reject the bid?http://images.ibsrv.net/ibsrv/res/src:www.pprune.org/get/images/smilies/confused.gif

There currently is no Ryanair bid for Aer Lingus as last one lapsed when referred to EU.

[racedo]

Well it shows that the FR shareholding has artificial deflated the EI share price.......it could however be institutional investors buying in on the chance that FR will offer 1.50 or more if given the go ahead. Does anyone know can they increase their bid?

Er no as substantial losses and potential pension liability brough share price down.


Didn't the EI CEO state last year that based on assets/slots/cash reserves that EI was actually worth 1.70. Of course this is the same for many companies, share value is a reflection of the level of trading and the attractiveness of the stock portfolio.

CEO will say anything to protect their jobs and bump up shareholding. Herr Mueller not saying anything others wouldn't say.


I know the 1st bid was stopped, the 2nd was withdrawn before it could be closed/ended, this is the 3rd attempt and we will soon see how this pans out. I believe FR have a one final shot if this bid is shut down.

There is no current bid.

[DollarBill]

Nice selective quoting racedo.

I mentioned the quote from Mueller and also added the bit about "this could apply to any company"

And the last loss published by EI was in mid 2010, can't see that affecting the recent shareprice. The pension issue is a factor, I think the LC issued a proposal on that so it should be clarified in the next couple months. And the share price was down before the pension issue became public.

I was trying to be balanced...you should try it.

Now back on topic.......as you say the bid lapsed when the EU got involved. I was of the opinion that this EU investigation was of the 1.30 bid.
Does this mean FR must make another public bid if given the go-ahead?
Does this mean that if this happens the subsequent bid (at whatever price) will be the 3rd permitted under Irish regs?

[racedo]

And the last loss published by EI was in mid 2010, can't see that affecting the recent shareprice. The pension issue is a factor, I think the LC issued a proposal on that so it should be clarified in the next couple months. And the share price was down before the pension issue became public.

Last loss was last quarter where lost same as last year.


Does this mean FR must make another public bid if given the go-ahead?
Does this mean that if this happens the subsequent bid (at whatever price) will be the 3rd permitted under Irish regs?

FR don't have to make another bid as they free to walk away.

IF they bid they can bid at any price they wish, extend the deadline if they fail to get 50.00001% and increase the offer price which is generally the norm in a hostile takeover. Based on historic hostile bids for companies I would expect to see all three.

Also based on historic hostile takeovers I would expect that Hedge funds / Investors have already bought up sizeable blocks for a quick profit.

Once you get 50.00001% you in control and while people can hold onto shares it is pretty pointless.

[Cian]

A Q4 loss, just like the Q4 loss that Ryanair usually reports then? :rolleyes:

[Sober Lark]

And Racedo, you think.....

[justanotherloser]

"Last loss was last quarter where lost same as last year"


Wow. I dont think i've ever seen such an eloquent contributor lose credibility so quickly. Ever.

[floss689]

"Last loss was last quarter where lost same as last year"

Racedo 2013

[Meccano]

Obviously some heavy trading going on- is there any chance it could be Ryanair looking to increase their stake before the decision? Maybe EI buying back some shares or EY? I presume.if the price stays this high EI's shareholders would reject the bid?

Stock Market rules forbid FR increasing their holding above 29% unless they make a successful bid for takeover.

If the share price is above the FR offer of 1.30 why would a shareholder sell for less than market value, duh?

Of course he'll have to improve the offer, as I said all along! It was a joke bid - a stalking horse. He knew the EU would get involved as soon as he made an offer, and his offer would expire leaving the option to alter it later if he got approval.
But if the EU give him permission - unlikely though it is - he'll need to make a significant move to twist the Irish Governments reluctant arm.

I hope none of you sold below 1.30?
You swallowed Racedos propaganda!?
Oh dear.... should know by now.... Must sting a bit.....

When FRs gone the EI share price will strengthen further as other interested parties start to show their hand. Mark my word, I've been right all along....

[racedo]

"Last loss was last quarter where lost same as last year"


Wow. I dont think i've ever seen such an eloquent contributor lose credibility so quickly. Ever.

http://corporate.aerlingus.com/media/aerlinguscom/content/pdfs/corporate/AerLingusGroupplc_preliminary_announcement_311212_Final.pdf

If you are going to comment on Aer Lingus financials at least read what they have paid their Finance team and PR team to produce.

[racedo]

If the share price is above the FR offer of 1.30 why would a shareholder sell for less than market value, duh?

There is no Ryanair offer at this present moment in time.

As to why a Shareholder would take a lower price ?

Well if he/she/it felt that once a bid was unsucessful the share price would collapse then better to take what is on offer now rather than watch it all collapse. A reason not to would be to hold on for an improved offer which as indicated in previous post is pretty routine in hostile takeovers.



Of course he'll have to improve the offer, as I said all along! It was a joke bid - a stalking horse. He knew the EU would get involved as soon as he made an offer, and his offer would expire leaving the option to alter it later if he got approval.
But if the EU give him permission - unlikely though it is - he'll need to make a significant move to twist the Irish Governments reluctant arm.

Nope it was a fair bid given Aer Lingus share price. Lets face it you feel €6+ is a fair price. Why should anybody pay over the odds ?

As for Irish Govt.......IF someone holds 50.0001% then their shareholding is irrelevant.

A minority shareholding can do little.


When FRs gone the EI share price will strengthen further as other interested parties start to show their hand. Mark my word, I've been right all along....

Long as you keep believing it but in 5 years the supposed other interested parties have been very quiet, they all been free to buy Ryanair's stake if they so wished even when share price was €0.55.

[racedo]

And Racedo, you think.....

Sober

You had to ask !!!! As you a reasonable poster bereft of the emotional rantings of some on here I will repond accordingly.

Think should just cut it loose and flog the shareholding for €250M + to who ever will buy it.

Start a T/A business up from scratch and with €250M + €100M not paid to Flybe its decent seed capital for a 15-20 plane T/A operation using SNN and a number of other places as hubs.

I believe whomever wins it will be a Pyrhhic victory.

FR will spend too much time and resources intergrating it and take their eye of the ball in their mega profitable core business...................few hostile bids ever deliver what they promise to, management of company taken over generally leave very quickly.

If takeover doesn't happen then EI have to deliver in keeping the share price high which brings its own difficulties............pay more dividends is one way but that will suck cash out of the business for nil return.

Every 1 Cent in dividend costs roughly €5.3 Million, so div of 4 cents announced last week is €21 Million paid out. This is cash that could have been invested within company.

There is the EI potential pension liability which has a potential to suck €25-40 million cash a year from the business for 10 years if Irish courts rule accordingly that way. Its a claimed pension fund liability of €750M as per submissions to court. It won't be a nil cost.

If courts ruled on EI immediate liability and demand single massive shortfall payment (doubtful) of €250 M to cover deficit then EI would have interesting discussions with their bankers. The debt holders and creditors would start to worry about payment which is not a good situation to be in.

Then there would be the trading issue if FR started up a T/A business as while believe EI would realistically expect to hold 50-60% of their existing Pax I think losing 40-50% creates a big revenue and profit gap.

[j636]

Not forgetting the 750 million that fr will have to pay for pensions.

[Hangar6]

Q4 was disapointing for EI no improvement v 2011 , mind you the defence costs of €7m or nearly that off the bottom line didnt help at all

I wonder just how much FR and EI have lost on the three now dead bids, plus loss in share values for FR investment, staggering numbers and makes me see that Ducksie just is out of his depth on this one , and it will fail

Anyway well done EI 2012 was pretty good, the Q4 issue is being tackled with TC taking A330 wet lease , this winter 2-3 under utilised A330's plus crew hurt the accounts, next Q4 will be different , Cancun here I come

Nope held onto my share , Meccano is my man ...holding for the big payout

I think Ducksie once bid €2.80 in 2006 for EI shares.... this must be ruinign his breakfast...

Sorted the need for 320;s for VS , thanks to SK

Means EIR will not have to be totally re orged to cover UK BHX MAN routes

Intersting times but at least Ducksie will get out with a big loss on his efforts rather than a huge loss...

And Mr H is just waiting , A330 spare and wants EI to take it ...Q4 again ,
Phuket of all places but well again it will make Q4 this year peachy

All things considered Mr M is doing just fine steady hand for the long road

Pension issue is not going to be a huge injection tentative number almost signed off on all sides

Just lets get this pest to focus on his own under utilized Q4 fleet and maybe take a leaf out of Mr Muellers approach ...:D

[justanotherloser]

"Quote:
"Last loss was last quarter where lost same as last year"


Wow. I dont think i've ever seen such an eloquent contributor lose credibility so quickly. Ever.
http://corporate.aerlingus.com/media...1212_Final.pdf (http://corporate.aerlingus.com/media/aerlinguscom/content/pdfs/corporate/AerLingusGroupplc_preliminary_announcement_311212_Final.pdf)

If you are going to comment on Aer Lingus financials at least read what they have paid their Finance team and PR team to produce"


I'm not commenting on EI financials per se at all Racedo, just your rather daft point about Q4 losses, which as I am sure you aware, are a feature of almost every airline. To honestly suggest that these amount to losses of concern to investors which would affect the share price, even when the annual figure is still hugely positive, completely destroys the credibility of your argument.

But nice try to deflect, though....yet evidently, everybody else has read the situation just as I have, judging from the comments. ;):D

[racedo]

I'm not commenting on EI financials per se at all Racedo, just your rather daft point about Q4 losses, which as I am sure you aware, are a feature of almost every airline. To honestly suggest that these amount to losses of concern to investors which would affect the share price, even when the annual figure is still hugely positive, completely destroys the credibility of your argument.

Which Annual figure is hugely positive ..........

Operational Profit after exceptionals ? down 51%
Profit before Tax ? down 52%
Profit after Tax ? down 52%

At least read what Aer Lingus have publicly stated before talking about credibility.

[Aerlingus231]

Racedo, operating profits up 40.7%, that's what counts, last years profits were boosted by the sale of an aircraft. This year restucturing costs resulted in a once off loss from moving maintainence facilities all to DUB in Hangar 6, and the fees involved in fending off the Ryanair bid.

Actual day to day business, the important thing, has increased a considerable 40.7%, so let's not knock them.

And highest ever passenger numbers ever carried this year, passing 10.8 million.

Not bad, certainly positive results, no need to knock them just because they're not Ryanair...

[DollarBill]

Lets also read the bits were EI state they made a 40M profit in 2012,
(-taking into account costs of 10M in relation to the FR bid,
-the fact that they are spending money to move MX to DUB which will reap benefits next year and thereafter,
-the exceptional revenue created from assets disposal last year)

They are also very upfront with their plans to counteract this ~50% in net profit/operational profit by getting into the ACMI business to try to move away from their over reliance on a single market which is currently going through the worst recession in its history. And in their investor briefing they say they will continue to reduce costs and look for operational efficiencies.
EI also state that 60% of their L/H traffic in 2012 was sourced outside their home market.

You correctly point out some of the facts Racedo. We could all selectively quote a small number of figures to support our argument....haven't I already done that in this post?

I dunno but as an investor I would be thinking......these guys are managing to do well in a really bad economic situation. They are continuing to work on improving their situation by growing organically and looking for low risk ventures with which to grow their revenue while protecting their cash reserves with prudent fiscal behaviour.

It may not be sexy but it works.

[justanotherloser]

"At least read what Aer Lingus have publicly stated before talking about credibility"

Let's try this again, shall we?

"Last loss was last quarter where lost same as last year"


That's what you said. You were challenged on the basis that this is meaningless, as the annual figures show what amount to healthy profits and a healthy margin in this industry, as you should very well know.

Now, be my guest if you wish to deflect on to other areas or tidbits of data, but I and everyone else here are certainly very clear on what your claim was - that EI post losses, and that investors are concerned at this, and that this depresses the share price.

EI post a loss for one quarter (better than most!)
They post a decent annual profit.
They earn a decent margin for this industry.
They do this when their home market is in economic doldrums.

You'd probably be taken more seriously if you just admitted the above. It still does not detract from any argument you wish to make that this take over is still desirable.

[mart901]

tell you what folks, with lent beckning, why not give up responding to racedo until after easter? after all surely lies and half truths will pervert our righteousness?

[Meccano]

Well if he/she/it felt that once a bid was unsucessful the share price would collapse then better to take what is on offer now rather than watch it all collapse. A reason not to would be to hold on for an improved offer which as indicated in previous post is pretty routine in hostile takeovers.

What's on offer now is 10 cents in excess of the defunct FR bid, but I don't see too many heading for the doors.
Except a few of your credulous mugs.....

[racedo]

What's on offer now is 10 cents in excess of the defunct FR bid, but I don't see too many heading for the doors.
Except a few of your credulous mugs.....

Ah good old selective quoting.........ah well

IF that was the case of nobody interested then why is there so much activity in share dealing ?

The old bid is the old bid but not unknown for share price to go above potential bid price before falling back down or for a second offer to come in.

There of course could be the White Knight waiting in the wings but doubt that.

[waffler]

Sad little man.

[Bearcat]

Darkest Surrey?.......Darkest Giggistown more like:)

[Meccano]

IF that was the case of nobody interested then why is there so much activity in share dealing ?

Let's see;

Gubmint - not selling.
Staff - not selling.
Denis - not selling.
Etihad - not selling (want to buy more).
Pension Funds/Institutional Investors- Sticky. Some might be swayed if price was right.

That leaves you with the speculators and carpet baggers.
Big action there alright.

I guess you've done the math?
Tight, innit!

I'm a reasonable man.
I've already told you I'd consider selling.
You know my price.

[EI-A330-300]

Short Haul:
518,000 up 0.8%
4.4 drop in capacity
LF 62.7 up 0.2%

Long Haul:
55,000 up 12.2%
2.9% increase in capacity
LF 68.2 up 6.4

EI Regional
65,000 up 22.65%

EI Total
638,000 up 3.6%

[Shamrogue]

Aer Lingus: underlying profits rise for ‘Ireland’s civilised airline’, but beware any fall in RASK | CAPA - Centre for Aviation (http://centreforaviation.com/analysis/aer-lingus-underlying-profits-rise-for-irelands-civilised-airline-but-beware-any-fall-in-rask-97103)

[claiomh]

The EU seems to have rejected the bid- but of course they will appeal. Hopefully thats the end of this nonsense. Let EI concentrate on growing and investing for the future.

Ryanair loses bid for Aer Lingus · Business ETC (http://businessetc.thejournal.ie/ryanair-lose-aer-lingus-792571-Feb2013/)

[decky24]

Thank God for that....

[Bearcat]

Michael won't be going away fast akin to the dog with the bone. Anyone thinks its time for handstands and to bring out the bunting is removed from reality.

The fact is FR are a hostile shareholder is without doubt. They also own close to 30% EIN stock. There's many many more stings and twists in the road ahead and what happens in the weeks/months ahead will tell a lot. Today's events are just the kick off of an end game of the future of EIN imho.

[ryan2000]

Very good news but hopefully Aerlingus will be a bit more adventurous out of Ireland and not just consolidate their route network. A.320's are too big for many Continental routes and Aer Arann's aircraft are too small. A lot to be said for the EMB190.

[Cian]

4 A319s this summer, not much smaller but it makes a difference in viability. Proposed to add two shorthaul craft a year for the next few years - I'd imagine they'll mostly be A319s.

[akerosid]

As Bearcat says, it's too early to do handstands ... or pop the champagne (and very bad to both at once anyway).

MO'L is going to make life as difficult as possible for Aer Lingus, so he won't be selling out anytime soon. I'm just wondering when the OFT decision on the FR shareholding in EI might come; that might throw up some interesting results.

It is good news; FR plans to appeal, but since the EU has not issued its reasoning, it's hard to know what the grounds for this might be. Maybe the ECJ might end up throwing FR's case out as being vexatious and time-wasting.

[racedo]

MO'L is going to make life as difficult as possible for Aer Lingus, so he won't be selling out anytime soon. I'm just wondering when the OFT decision on the FR shareholding in EI might come; that might throw up some interesting results.

It is good news; FR plans to appeal, but since the EU has not issued its reasoning, it's hard to know what the grounds for this might be. Maybe the ECJ might end up throwing FR's case out as being vexatious and time-wasting.

I have doubts about whether ECJ would do that as basically EU can't ask for remedies and then ignore them all because it has already made a decision based on Govt pressure.

Could end up being finanically costly for EU as any case will request and receive disclosure of all documents for EU.

Interesting to watch share price in coming weeks.

[Zag23]

And where is your proof to back up these allegations ?:hmm:

[mart901]

I think racedo you will find the EU won't be for turning. Like them or loathe them they will have their way. Lets face it BE wouldn't stand a chance against FR and the combination of handing EI routes to them and also BA actually serves FR more than it does the flying public. How about FR dropping routes and handing them over - that would never happen. Wiping EI out of LGW and LHR is MOL's dream situation and the EU know this.

[Angry Rebel]

it has already made a decision based on Govt pressure

Racedo - Please provide the source for this comment as most posters will be very keen to understand more about how the bid was defeated......

[Epsomdog]

Government pressure has nothing to do with it.

Problem is the EU, like almost everyone else, didn't believe the Flybe solution to be a credible solution.

MOLs style of management doesn't fit with the idea....

Ok Flybe here's a mill, do what you like with it... I don't mind!

[Epsomdog]

There are suggestions online FR may off load shares at the same time as the Irish gov. Is that more FR scaremongering, I wonder?

How do we feel about someone else snapping up 55%?

[DollarBill]

That's the risk that exists for a publically traded company.

FR could dump their shares tomorrow, depress the share value, allowing a predatory hedge fund to hover up the 29% (maybe more) This could then lead to asset stripping of the company. It has already been noted that EI is worth more than it market capitalisation implies.

EY have hinted that they would like to increase their stockholding but unless they do a deal directly with FR or the Govt then this scenario could occur.

[Meccano]

FR could dump their shares tomorrow, depress the share value, allowing a predatory hedge fund to hover up the 29% (maybe more) This could then lead to asset stripping of the company. It has already been noted that EI is worth more than it market capitalisation implies.
But a hedge fund could've 'snapped it up' at 60 cents or so just 18 months ago, when it was just as cash rich as today! Even better value. Why didn't they?
Well for one thing, what good would 29% do a hedge fund? They'd be in a worse scenario than FR, with not a hope in hell of getting to 50+%.
For another thing, it is a political hot potato, and that's an undeniable fact.

Isn't it amazing FR hasn't already sold up, given all the predictions for the EI share price if this bid failed?

Truth is, FR has a lot to lose now in a fire sale.
Besides the crystallisation of losses on the original investment, and the huge loss of face that brings, there's the risk that (as some predict above) a stronger competitor airline could get it and create bigger headaches for FR than EI ever was.

What to do?

Jumped in with both feet. Not so easy to jump out.