Aer Lingus - 6

[Una Due Tfc]

Completely agree with Jack above. EI are a DUB based airline. With the M1/M6/M7/M8 there isn't a hope of them launching a service from one of the Island's "regional" airports that doesn't already operate from DUB.

Because of the new motorway network, DUB is going to eat everyone else's longhaul lunch on this Island. BFS/BHD and ORK will be able to sustain their services to the UK and major Euro hubs and cities, SNN will have it's narrowbody links to the states, but beyond that it's all DUB now

[EI-BUD]

Jack1985,
I totally agree here. Aer Lingus has competitive advantage with its transatlantic business through Dublin. This will sustain the airline. Now more than ever they need to be continually developing the connectivity ex DUB as FR is intensifying competition on all of Aer Lingus' European routes.

The potential is enormous. You only need to look at EK and DXB to get a flavour of what could be achieved . However, I fear DUB may not have the required terminal make up for EI to grow at any significant pace.

[Just a spotter]

WRT a Belfast link to Canada ... there's about 3 million Canadians who claim Northern Irish heritage. On the business side, the Canadian High Commissioner to the UK has been calling for a direct link between Belfast and Canada for some time, mentioning that there are about a dozen or so Canadian companies with a presence in Northern Ireland.

JAS

[840]

Within 1km of where I'm sitting in Cork Airport, there are half a dozen US companies (Amazon, Marriott, Bank of New York, Avery Dennison, IBM, Red Hat).

That list doesn't include the major US employers around the Cork area (Apple, EMC, Boston Scientific, VMWare, Pfizer) and a whole host of smaller US presence. Yet there's never a sniff of a US route from Cork.

It's no surprise really. So many employees end up on flights from Shannon and the rest connect via Heathrow and Amsterdam, so there's no benefit for Aer Lingus. Any other airline needs to look at how much profit they can actually make and whether Aer Lingus would respond if they launched a US route.

The same applies to a route to Canada Northern Ireland. Airlines will take a cold look at potential profit and how that balances with the risks involved and shy away from it.

[Dontgothere]

Another point is that flying to Halifax from BHD would be prohibitively expensive seeing as the UK air passenger duty just rapes the holidaymaker of their hard earned cash, such to the extent that on taxation alone, you'll still be financially better off driving the 100 or so miles from Belfast to Dublin, many people do this already. If say you're travelling as a family of four, (£69x4 = insanity (£276)).

I'm surprised that the Halifax service is taking off, but nevertheless I do wish all involved in it the very best of luck. It'll be very interesting to see what happens with this route and it's 320s (as alluded to originally). A question for MCDU2, are the plans being publicly unveiled this week or internally for the time being?

Thanks,

[EI-BUD]

To all the recent posts, re Cork and indeed Belfast justification for transatlantic service, the issue is not that anyone is denying these could be successful. Dublin as a hub is a much better investment for EI not only does it offer good connectivity but it can support the EI network across Europe , hence leaving EI less dependent on the point to point traffic.

This scenario where what may seem like credible routes and often routes that once were successful eg Belfast Toronto, don't get another chance is a component of today's reducing number of airlines. Fewer airlines chasing better returns become extremely selective where they invest their assets. Profitable is not enough, it's about what market can deliver the most return ...

[SecondDog]

Another point is that flying to Halifax from BHD would be prohibitively expensive seeing as the UK air passenger duty just rapes the holidaymaker of their hard earned cash, such to the extent that on taxation alone, you'll still be financially better off driving the 100 or so miles from Belfast to Dublin, many people do this already. If say you're travelling as a family of four, (£69x4 = insanity (£276)).

Does Halifax not qualify for the reduction? Its only (I think) £12 per person on the Newark flight from BFS. I think these things are measured from london so maybe that would help Halifax?

[benjyyy]

APD is a moot point because it's not chargeable on direct long haul flights from Northern Ireland. The UA flight to EWR is the only current qualifying flight.

[Dontgothere]

I never heard about the special reduction (I'll have to read into it), anyhow I checked the ADP thing on HMRC, and then checked it against WebFlyer Mile Calculator and it's well within the 2001-4000 mile thing, I think it's really quite insane, I checked Halifax from LHR and it appears not to be exempt from the excessive ADP.

[akerosid]

I was just thinking about EI's long haul fleet needs going forward and in particular, EI's interest in the new A330 Neo, which CM has praised as a very interesting aircraft.

Is it correct, as I assume, that the A330-900Neo will effectively be a warmed over version of the current A330-300? If EI were (as some have suggested) to replace its current A350-900 Regional order with the A339, won't that effectively mean that on EI's core and busiest t/a routes, DUB-BOS, JFK and ORD, that there will be no capacity increase for over twenty years; the A330-300/A330-900 having operated the route for the past twenty years and then, for the foreseeable future?

What would shareholders (and in particular, the govt) make of this. I say "particularly the govt" because of course, it also wears the hat of tourism promotion and increasing numbers. I would think it would be at least disappointed (at worst apoplectic).

Given the govt's stated aim to award more fifth freedom routes, would it not also be looking at alternatives to grow these markets? (Emirates?). Also, from EI's own perspective, given the success of the Dublin hub, I wonder if EI would be restricting its own growth potential; increasing pax feed from regional and UK routes would eat into pax numbers originating in DUB and with no capacity increase, that would only invite additional capacity.

By all means add A339s as a supplement (and if there's a joint crew type rating, all the better), but as a replacement for the A359, it doesn't seem to make sense.

[MCDU2]

Dontgothere - just internally at the mo. It's just a union meeting where we get to find out the specifics like rotations, rosters and bidding etc.

[Cyrano]

Another point is that flying to Halifax from BHD would be prohibitively expensive seeing as the UK air passenger duty just rapes the holidaymaker of their hard earned cash, such to the extent that on taxation alone, you'll still be financially better off driving the 100 or so miles from Belfast to Dublin, many people do this already. If say you're travelling as a family of four, (£69x4 = insanity (£276)).


No, there is no UK APD for direct long-haul services from Northern Ireland. See here (http://www.belfastairport.com/en/news/1/189/air-pasenger-duty-reduced-to-zero-on-all-long-haul-flights-from-belfast.html) for example. Connecting flights from Belfast through Heathrow for example still incur the duty, but direct flights don't. (IIRC this was done to save the United BFS-EWR flight.)

The official HMRC information is here (http://www.hmrc.gov.uk/air-passenger-duty/apd-update-ni.htm).

[SecondDog]

I never heard about the special reduction (I'll have to read into it), anyhow I checked the ADP thing on HMRC, and then checked it against WebFlyer Mile Calculator and it's well within the 2001-4000 mile thing, I think it's really quite insane, I checked Halifax from LHR and it appears not to be exempt from the excessive ADP.

Yeah sorry Dontgothere, I guess my post was a bit poorly worded. As some of the others have more successfully written, I meant the long haul flights out of Belfast being at a reduced rate of APD. I mentioned measurements being taken from London because I heard recently that it is a stumbling block for a turkey flight not getting the reduced APD (would quailfy from BFS but the HMRC measurements are taken from London - I do tend to get info about 3rd hand so sorry if it takes anyone in the wrong direction)

[Dontgothere]

Right folks, thanks for updating me on the situation. No worries, SecondDog. Certainly an interesting situation RE: APD on BFS long haul.


Back to the transatlantic operation from Dublin, it does seem like interesting times are ahead for Aer Lingus, I wonder how long it will be before there is an official announcement from Aer Lingus regarding TA expansion?

[DollarBill]

Well the statement from EI was that new routes would be announced by the end of September.

Please note that it was the newspaper article than mentioned Dallas. The EI response was that "its an interesting destination"

[BFS Dude]

When does Aer Lingus release their Summer 2015 flights only bookable to July 2015. Thanks :)

[belfastmark]

looking at whats out for next may from BHD looks like Palma has got the axe. Gatwick 3 daily all the same times 7 days a week. Bit of a shame they don't get creative and offer a 1 x weekly flights to two unserved destinations? Naples weekly or 2 weekly Lisbon? Just by the way how far can a a319 go from the runway at the city maybe this limits options?

[EI-A330-300]

looking at whats out for next may from BHD looks like Palma has got the axe. Gatwick 3 daily all the same times 7 days a week. Bit of a shame they don't get creative and offer a 1 x weekly flights to two unserved destinations? Naples weekly or 2 weekly Lisbon? Just by the way how far can a a319 go from the runway at the city maybe this limits options?

PMI is never released early from either BHD or ORK.

September/October full changes should start to be made. They only allow 330 day advance sales.

[Mlinnie]

Looking at Aer Lingus' timetable Toronto is now showing as daily from the start of the S15 schedule, SFO Daily from 1st May onwards and now MCO showing an extra Wednesday flight from May onwards

[Cian]

Is Toronto not daily for S14 anyway?

[Dontgothere]

Yes it was, but the original intention as far as I'm aware was that Toronto would be 4x weekly next summer, good news about it retaining this year's frequency and hopefully more good news in a month or so's time.

[SecondDog]

Any of you EI insiders heard anything concrete about a return (of some description) to BFS?

It is a rumor that seems to be picking up pace....

[strawberry Ribena]

I know the base is closing but just noticed LGW-DUB isn't bookable after march 27th? But bhd is up... Anyone know why?

[Cian]

NOC isn't up after then either as it happens.

[j636]

Who says the base is closing?

Loads of EI routes are not up yet.

[strawberry Ribena]

The crew told us. They are being offered redundancy or relocation to Ireland.

[EI-BUD]

Not a chance that DUB LGW is closing , one of the busiest routes ...
Don't know anything about LGW base closing, my understanding was that they had secured good charter business ex LGW, so it would surprise me ...

[mart901]

Regardless of whether LgW base closes or not DUB/NOC can easily operate.
Hopefully they will keep the base.

[mart901]

LGW-DUB summer 2015 on sale 4x daily with DUB base a/c. NOC may still turn up.

[strawberry Ribena]

Thanks mart

[EI-A330-300]

Flybe code share to operate between SEN, SOU and INV and the US/Canada. On EI website now.

[Papa2Charlie]

Interesting to note that the EI109 in the January / February time frame is now being operated ex Dublin by the 757.

Long term arrangement or just cover while the A330's are having the J Class upgrade works and heavy maintenance?

[EISNN]

Solely for the purpose of maintenance and cabin upgrade. EI105 still operates as an A330. I'm told that EI111 will go from the schedule again for the months of Jan and Feb. Also I believe that there's a BOS ex DUB to be operated as a 757 for a brief time in Jan/Feb??? Anyone hear this too?

[EI-A330-300]

The works. Having one aircraft flying to SFO for 24h this year and the works makes it much harder and the bulk of the fleet changes are happening in Q1 2015.

They are using the 757 to increase BOS capacity in Nov/Dec this year and take the service from 11 to 14 weekly.

[EI-BUD]

Information in the papers indicates that after 18 months of ops, Little Red by Virgin, operated by Aer Lingus is set to close. This may be rumour and speculation, though nothing has been confirmed. This would mean 4 Airbus 320's coming back into the fleet, at a time when Ryanair is upping the ante.

Where would these be deployed?

[GAZMO]

Hopefully BFS to LHR!!

[Hangar6]

Well YHZ will take the two ex Ib etops 320s and Turkey is a real opportunity,
Growth is good on the sun charter routes and a spare is needed every sumner,
So for me it's good news, extra capacity will be absorbed easily

[EI-BUD]

Gazmo;

BFS LHR not at all likely! :)

[allan1987]

More likely the 4 Virgin Atlantic Little Red planes will be painted in Aer Lingus livery and be used on any Aer Lingus flights .

And Aer Lingus will be given the slots from Virgin Atlantic and used to fly from Heathrow to Aberdeen 3 times a day , and Heathrow to Edinburgh 6 times a day, as these slots cannot be changed to be used fly else where.

And dephends on what Aer Lingus wants to do with the Manchester route as it might be just shut down and stay with Virgin Atlantic to be use else where .

[EI-A330-300]

I wouldn't get to excited as the story is highly likely to be untrue as VS will still have to pay all operation costs for the duration or a very big sum of cash to exit early.

More likely the 4 Virgin Atlantic Little Red planes will be painted in Aer Lingus livery and be used on any Aer Lingus flights .

And Aer Lingus will be given the slots from Virgin Atlantic and used to fly from Heathrow to Aberdeen 3 times a day , and Heathrow to Edinburgh 6 times a day, as these slots cannot be changed to be used fly else wear.

And dephends on what Aer Lingus wants to do with the Manchester route as it might be just shut down.

A new paint job won't improve loads. You could be right but unlikely IMO as VS will stick it out to give them options in 18 months.

On the other hand if it was closing EI could of being clever and secure a few extra LHR slots for themselves once the time limit is up instead of a financial penalty.

[EI-BUD]

These slots are not transferrable to other routes. I think EI should avoid the routes, as good as they are, I cannot see what they could bring to the party that VS could not. I mean VS has the connectivity ex LHR to a greater degree. EI would be reliant on point to point traffic, and while they have lower cost base than BA, the challenge in wooing the passenger is not about the price, as VS Little Red is often much more competitive and yet BA still manages to get bumper loads on the same routes. In fact 767 on EDI often over booked! And MAN 320/321s full on many many flights.

I cannot comment on BA level of profitability but high loads and often high fares. I'm not convinced given the distance involved that anybody can rival BA on Heathrow domestic routes....

[Epsomdog]

Little Red Closure
Information in the papers indicates that after 18 months of ops, Little Red by Virgin, operated by Aer Lingus is set to close. This may be rumour and speculation, though nothing has been confirmed. This would mean 4 Airbus 320's coming back into the fleet, at a time when Ryanair is upping the ante.

Is this "information" or "speculation"? Was it in the Daily Mail?

There is an early exit clause for VS or EI after two years, we are now at the stage where both party's need to decide whether to take up that option. I suspect there's lots of bargaining going on!

[Cian]

It was the Sunday Times, but they're no more reliable than the Hatemail these days.

[Epsomdog]

These slots are not transferrable to other routes. I think EI should avoid the routes, as good as they are, I cannot see what they could bring to the party that VS could not. I mean VS has the connectivity ex LHR to a greater degree. EI would be reliant on point to point traffic,

Would they?

How about a round robin route! DUB EDI LHR DUB and vice versa. It could act as a feeder for the EI transatlantic and give the benefits of pre-clearance to the Scots!
Especially as VS flights will be next to EI gates at LHR!

The same could also be said about the ABZ route!

[Leeds Spotter]

Aer Lingus are to commence flights form Leeds to Dulin on the 23rd October.
They quote the ability to clear USA customs in Dublin as one key to starting this route.
As a 29.2% shareholder in Aer Lingus, no comment from Ryanair who command this route at the moment.

[airbourne]

Dominate the route? Eh....I dont think so.

A 0725 arrival into Dublin is 3 hours away from the first EI ta flight. Plus the timings for FR on that route are pretty lousy as it is.

[Cian]

A 0725 arrival into Dublin is 3 hours away from the first EI ta flight. Plus the timings for FR on that route are pretty lousy as it is.


There is a fairly significant amount of time required to connect to a US flight due to CBP.

FRs timings on LBA are so poor that I now fly to MAN and take the train when going to Leeds - multiple times a year. I doubt I'm the only one either.

[SWBKCB]

Britain in talks on introducing US pre-clearance at airports - www.travelweekly.co.uk (http://www.travelweekly.co.uk/Articles/2014/09/12/49307/britain+in+talks+on+introducing+us+pre-clearance+at+airports.html)

could have an impact on EI's Transatlantic services and the EIR feeder model?

[Just a spotter]

It could do. One of the factors would be which airports get the facility.

If it's less hassle and stress for passengers to drive to a faily quiet UK regional airport, fly on EI/EI-R to Dublin, do pre-clearance there and then onward to the US compared to getting to a UK busy hub airport, check-in and pre-clear at a LHR/LGW/MAN et al before jumping the pond, then pax may choose the Dublin route.

IMHO, it all depends on how the transfer & pre-clearance experience is at Dublin.

JAS

[EI-A330-300]

Don't see a major issue if the major gateways of LHR and MAN get it. EI product was not built on USPC. There will still be long queues and lack of staff.

How they would approach such a facility at LHR is interesting with so many aircraft across terminals they need lots of space build a facility and the bigger the facility the higher cost to passengers.

[Una Due Tfc]

Only just hearing about the new cadet pilot programme today. Well done Aer Lingus, it's one of the best around, if not the best. Great to see the airline investing in it's staff and not burying aspiring pilots under a mountain of debt.

Any ideas when the new T/A routes are to be announced? Are they in talks with Aer Contractors for more 757s?

[ATCO97]

Rumored that there will be a third 757 based in
SNN for next Summer? ORD & YYZ possible routes!!

[Mlinnie]

Latest News > Aer Lingus Regional Launches New East Midlands Service (http://ow.ly/C9lXg)

Great News! But when can we expect the announcement regarding TA expansion?

[Jamesair]

Looking at the timetable for summer 2015 it looks as though the Newcastle route has a massive reduction from up to 3 daily to only 1 daily and no Cork service. I thought the Dublin route had reached a 7,000 pax milestone in August and was doing well.

Is this information correct or are the timetables not finalised yet?

[EI-A330-300]

Its only to allow T/A bookings. The rest will be up soon.

[EI-A330-300]

EI-EWR will be rejoining the fleet in 2015 growth, aircraft flown to Dublin earlier under its current registration 9M-XAD, A330-200. Had previously operated until 2009 but left once SFO/IAD was cancelled if I am correct.

Photos: Airbus A330-202 Aircraft Pictures | Airliners.net (http://www.airliners.net/photo/Aer-Lingus/Airbus-A330-202/1563165/&sid=c8304ae5a8f644be755bc816468e792d)

[Una Due Tfc]

One of the A332s is still going to Novair for the winter, so this will allow SFO to continue. What new route will that aircraft serve when it gets back though?

[EI-A330-300]

The A332 going away for winter will not effect SFO operation. Remember this winter there is the additional 332 that was SNN based last year. EWR not starting until 2015.

[Una Due Tfc]

Interesting. So are they just planning on leaving it parked up beside hangar 6 for the next few months or will they just use EWR for the Novair contract?

[EI-A330-300]

Its not fully EIs yet, departed at 11.03 yesterday and continues to operate for Saudi. Just a flying visit possibly for an inspection of some sorts from EI?

[samj]

Do the EI A330s operate any short haul operations?

[Cian]

Faro and Malaga 2 days a week each as far as I remember, summer only. Uses the downtime between the early east coast arrivals and the afternoon departures.

They're also used for some direct (EI codes, rather than the Novair stuff) charter work in winter, and some rare substitutions - e.g. there was a 330 to CDG the night of the World Cup playoff a number of years ago.

[Jamie2k9]

They operate the daily 07.00 to AGP for the full summer schedule and this year twice weekly 07.30 to FAO between May and September (likely to increase in 2015). They have also operated to Nice regularly a few years ago. The schedules don't really allow time for other routes.

Cian got there first!

[waffler]

There is a rumour, that with an extra 330 next summer, it may operate the early morning Rome next summer also.

[Jamie2k9]

There is a rumour, that with an extra 330 next summer, it may operate the early morning Rome next summer also.

Most likely will happen, they have being sending out 2 A320s in the mornings during peak summer once or twice a weekly for the last 2 summers. Only problem is one of the afternoon T/A may need to go slightly lather.

[Hangar6]

Well done all, Medway Council, people of Glinsk and EI for stepping in to
Bring Sean Parker home to rest tomorrow , heart warming story in these
Strange times , :D

[EI-A330-300]

Looks like Thursday is the long haul news day. Lots of speculation but IAD may be back so might be time to say bye bye to United if it happens.

Halifax has being cancelled, appears the region don't want the Shamrocks flying to protect WestJet.

330 may be replacing 4 or 7 weekly YYZ instead.

Also the A321 LR is going ahead so probably a very likely 757 replacement.

[Una Due Tfc]

Are they after any more 757s from ACL? Only 1 new A330 or 2?

[sprite1]

1 757 on the way. Agreement for a fifth when they want.
Just EI-EWR on the 330 side for the foreseeable.

I reckon the majority of future expansion will be through stobart and ASL, unfortunately.

[j636]

Think its more a case of waiting for the 350s for their own growth. Some will replace 330 but they will have extras. They will probably get the A321 for SNN in future to.

Third daily JFK with the extra 752. Interesting to see the times they pick.

[Una Due Tfc]

The first 4 A350s were originally due next year before deferral, 2018 before they start arriving now. I expect at least some orders could be converted to A330 neos.

I suspect the third JFK departure would be after the second A330, perhaps 6 or 7pm to target more transfer pax from the UK, but obviously that would require US pre clearance to remain open longer.

[Jamie2k9]

I suspect the third JFK departure would be after the second A330, perhaps 6 or 7pm to target more transfer pax from the UK, but obviously that would require US pre clearance to remain open longer.

If it happens I expect it will be around 14.00 and it will grow yield and continue to give them a better competitive advantage over rivals in attracting connecting passengers.

[EISNN]

The 757 operation ex DUB to JFK is earmarked as an early morning departure. I'm being told by Lingus friends of mine that it's for a 7:50am departure. There's no 4th 757 for next summer as of yet. Apparently (this is a rumour network) The CRC was told by EI management last week that a 767 is being hired in and planned to cover SNN BOS (hence 757 doing DUBJFK) but maybe that is not the case and it will be covered by EI-EWR.???

[eick320]

My understanding is the early morning flt EI 103 will allow for a day trip return for the business type high yield passenger. Also, is the B767 not in for the upgrading of the business class cabin on the A330's.

[Noxegon]

Wait, a daytime eastbound flight? That would be fabulously awesome.

[Cyrano]

Wait, a daytime eastbound flight? That would be fabulously awesome.

I'd like that too, but sadly I don't think that's what's being suggested. I read "day trip" as "arriving in JFK early enough in the day that you can fit in a lunchtime or afternoon meeting and leave for home the same evening."

The challenge for any airline running eastbound day flights is that they essentially sacrifice connectivity at both ends so rely entirely on point-to-point traffic.

[EI-A330-300]

Last night EI officially launched their new Business Class service and will include the following:

1 - New Vantage seats that recline into a fully-flat 6’6’’ bed
2 - 16-inch HD entertainment screens with multi-touch capabilities
3 - A new "massage" function in the seats
4 - Built in power points, universal sockets and USB power outlets
5 - Increased stowage space
6 - New business lounge at JFK Airport
7 - New arrivals lounge at Dublin Airport
8 - New pre-dine service available at JFK and Boston airports
9 - Dedicated check-in desks and fast-track security will be available at all airports.
10 - New Menu (changed 4 times a year)
11 - Entertainment content will include "50% more new release movies, and 100% more TV content", according to a release provided by the airline. (gate to gate)

Lie-flat beds, HD screens and touch-button massages... welcome to the new Aer Lingus Business Class - Independent.ie (http://www.independent.ie/life/travel/travel-news/lieflat-beds-hd-screens-and-touchbutton-massages-welcome-to-the-new-aer-lingus-business-class-30684321.html)

[EISNN]

The challenge for any airline running eastbound day flights is that they essentially sacrifice connectivity at both ends so rely entirely on point-to-point traffic.

I think that's why the 757 will suit very well. Lower capacity with enough demand for early morning departure. I can see it working well on such an aircraft. It'll be the only flight into DUB of this type doing daytime eastbound departure.

[Una Due Tfc]

A colleague of mine was visiting DUB this week and was remarking on a white tailed A330 parked up between Hangars 5 and 6, been there for about a month he said, hardly a 9th A330 for EI?

[Jack1985]

Nope its EI-EWR parked up at Hangar 6.

[fivejuliet]

Definitely not former EI-EWR as it's still flying in the far East! I suspect white tailed a330 probably EI-EZL, ex Meridiana/Eurofly I-EEZL

[Jack1985]

Spot on fivejuliet, it's EI-EZL. Is EWR off the cards for S15 now?

[EI-A330-300]

Wednesday new route will be announced and confirmed it will not be to Texas. Looking more like IAD now unless they surprise use with DTW or somewhere similar but possibly more 752 operation rather than 330.

EWR is not needed until May.

[Stevek]

The front right hand door off EI-EZL is actually on EI-DUO at the moment.

[Una Due Tfc]

I suppose SFO will be announced daily too. So EI-EWR when it does come in will be split between MCO and YYZ maybe? YYZ being a mixture of 757 and 330? With maybe a 757 doing some of the BOS flights freeing up another 330 for......MIA? I really like the idea of MIA with the pre-clearance, the immigration queues there are the main thing that puts me off going through MIA when I'm in that part of the world. Have they leased EI-EZL too? How many more 757s are they getting? Putting a 330 to IAD against United would be a bit of a risk surely?and seeing as they are codeshare partners, I thought going back there was unlikely? Is EI103 definitely coming back (without the SNN stopover this time obviously)? Definitely with a 757? Questions questions questions....

[Cian]

SFO is already on sale daily I think.

[Jamie2k9]

There is 6 free slots in the 2015 t/a schedule. At most 5 will be available for a route. Whatever new route is announced it won't be daily. If the 752 is replaced by 332 to YYZ that leaves 4 weekly 752 slots and 2 weekly 330 which at least one of those 330 will not be in operation.

MIA could possibly be ruled out. If they were to go into IAD with a 4 weekly 752 service it should be sustainable with UA also operating and flights times could offer a lot of better connections as both sell connections to Europe on the existing service.

Given that its more less confirmed as East Coast it is highly likely the 752 will be in charge of the new route as the 332 seat maps were listed on YYZ for a while before being removed however 332 is still scheduled. With SFO going daily they may keep 1 extra 330 slot available to allow recovery of schedules.

So 4 weekly 752 or 332 is the big question! Provided only 1 aircraft joins the fleet.

[eick320]

Washington it is 4 weekly.

[EI-A330-300]

Washington it is 4 weekly.

DUB-12.45-IAD-15.35
IAD-17.20-DUB-05.30

Also 3rd daily 752 service to JFK confirmed.
DUB-07.50-JFK-10.20
JFK-12.00-DUB-23.40

Shannon gets a 767 based for 12 peak weeks of the summer while the 752 does the extra DUB-JFK. SNN-BOS will see the increased capacity only.

Over all an extra 14 weekly return flights peak season with 7 weekly outside of this.

[Cyrano]

The new 0750 departure to JFK is apparently (http://airlineroute.net/2014/11/05/ei-s15/) only for the peak June-July-August period. Will US preclearance open earlier for it, or will it not have preclearance?

[irish lad]

The 10.20am arrival in New York must be one of the first arrivals from Europe, so pre clearance mightn't be as benefical as the later flights

[EI-A330-300]

Looking to be a very good day for EI:

2015 growth, missed is that Agadir goes year round and EI have decided to give Ryanair some company on Nantes.

19% increase in Q3 profit, full year to beat 2013

Staff accept pension proposals despite SIPTU advising a rejection.

[Noxegon]

oh I like the idea of a flight arriving at night!!

So do I. This is far more exciting to me than a route to IAD that piggybacks on something another airline is already doing.

[ATCO97]

Are ASL going to source the 767 for the Summer BOS run?
Any guess on many cabin crew it will use? Potential for
Some new recruits in SNN next Summer especially if
There to continue operating YYZ an the new early morn JFK ex DUB!!

[EISNN]

According to my sources the 767 aircraft, flight deck and FA's will all be from the one company. It won't be Air Contractors either. (Titan????) Rumblings that it might be a problem for cabin crew as someone else is doing their job and wearing their uniform. Haven't heard what EI pilots response or reaction is to it.

[j636]

EISNN

Will they not just rotate SNN crew via JFK 752 ops at DUB instead.

As for EI pilots giving they have an extra 332 to fly what moaning could they do?

Will be very surprised if one senior crew member from EI isn't onboard to oversee service.

Interesting to see EI operating margin is just 1.7% behind Ryanair!

[Just a spotter]

Flightglobal 5th Nov, carries a story on EI weighing up its options regarding the upcoming delivery of 330's and 350's.

The Irish airline initially ordered half a dozen A350-900s, as well as six A330-300s, in 2007. It later deferred and ultimately switched three of the A330s to A350s, leaving it with nine A350s initially due for delivery between 2015 and 2018.

Aer Lingus still mulling A330neo before finalising A350 plan - 11/5/2014 - Flight Global (http://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/aer-lingus-still-mulling-a330neo-before-finalising-a350-405662/)

JAS

[akerosid]

It's quite noticeable that the vibes from EI about the 330NEO seem to be a lot more muted than they were originally; "we have been invited to take another look" suggests that they took a look originally and said "meh .... no".

I wonder what Airbus is now offering that might make the 330NEO more attractive to them. I think the fundamental issue for EI is that by 2020, according to their fleet plan issued in September, they intend to have all 9 A350s in service. Their current A330 fleet is not that old at all and will easily be able to continue to 2020. Given that timeframe and the fact that the 330NEO won't be in service for a few years anyway, it doesn't leave much space in the fleet plan for a new sub-type which doesn't really give them anything more (i.e. range, capacity) than they already have.

That said, I would think that EI is VERY interested in the proposed extended range A321NEO. It intends to have five "757 size" aircraft by 2020.

[EISNN]

@J636 Yes I'd imagine they will use EI FA's on the third (early) DUB-JFK rotation seeing as they have enough staff trained up on that type. (???) However, with expansion you'd think that any company would use their own staff and not someone else's, non? It's about staff protecting their own jobs too I guess. If this was to continue where would it end? Pilots I would think will see it the same way. Just my two cents. Maybe that won't happen and EI staff will be used. I'm only repeating the rumour I'd heard.

[fivejuliet]

I don't think I'm too far wide of the mark to say all 757 crew Inc cabin crew are employed by ASL? Some EI crew on a secondment also

[Una Due Tfc]

Cabin crew are full EI, flight crew are ASL, some of the flight crew are on secondment from EI.

[j636]

@J636 Yes I'd imagine they will use EI FA's on the third (early) DUB-JFK rotation seeing as they have enough staff trained up on that type. (???) However, with expansion you'd think that any company would use their own staff and not someone else's, non? It's about staff protecting their own jobs too I guess. If this was to continue where would it end? Pilots I would think will see it the same way. Just my two cents. Maybe that won't happen and EI staff will be used. I'm only repeating the rumour I'd heard.

I agree in principal however as its for 12 weeks is it really worth training up and employing extra crew. The costs just wouldn't stack up.

You are right the lease agreement would normally be fulled crewed by the operator unless EI have agreed some changes.

If it works well this year it will likely operator for longer in 2016 and then they would train up crew for the B767.

I don't think I'm too far wide of the mark to say all 757 crew Inc cabin crew are employed by ASL? Some EI crew on a secondment also

Flight crew by ASL and all CC by Aer Lingus (many seasonal contracts)

[EISNN]

@fivejuliet I'm afraid you're incorrect there. The 757's are FULLY crewed by EI FA's (friends of mine working on it) and there's a mix of ASL and EI flight deck crew with some on unpaid leave from EI to work 757.

[EISNN]

How much on average/approximately does it cost to lease a fully crewed B767 ACMI for 12 weeks? I'd imagine the costs would stack up there too, non?

[iwak]

Is gatwick base closed from end of winter timetable! No early am departures after that from lgw and noc operated by dublin based aircraft for summer!

[Just a spotter]

An interesting reaction from Irish America to the new timing option on the TA service.

From Niall O'Dowd of Irish Central

Every time I asked about it or wrote about it I was always told it had to do with the positioning of the aircraft. My response was “What about the positioning of the passengers, wrecked after an overnight flight?”
Aer Lingus announce daytime flight to Ireland ? Hallelujah - IrishCentral.com (http://www.irishcentral.com/opinion/niallodowd/Aer-Lingus-announce-daytime-flight-to-Ireland--Hallelujah.html#)


JAS

[Jack1985]

Is gatwick base closed from end of winter timetable! No early am departures after that from lgw and noc operated by dublin based aircraft for summer!

Yes - Base closes 28 March 2015. Staff offered relocation or redundancy.

[boyzinblue]

Does anyone know if the Dublin to Hanover route going to come back for S15?

[mart901]

Shame about LGW base but seemed inevitable eventually, at least NOC will remain and DUB will keep high frequency. I hope they remain long term at BHD, the amount of routes would indicate so, not so easy to maintain a presence there without based aircraft.NOC currently showing A319, that of course can all change.

[fivejuliet]

Thanks for info about 757 crew.

I see they have changed their mind about sending the A330 to YYZ
https://twitter.com/airlineroute/status/530328750844833792

[Una Due Tfc]

So where are they sending it on the 3 days it isn't going to IAD?

[Hangar6]

Well two extra flights to SFO using a 200 plus 1on Mco plus 4 on IAD means it's fully tasked?

[Jack1985]

With the new re-jigging of the schedule now taken into account, there now remains a two weekly (Tues/Sat), A330-200 slot for a transatlantic route. I doubt they would use a two weekly slot to launch another destination. I think more or less they will use it for extra capacity on Europe in the evening after the A332 is back from FAO that morning (On Tues/Sat), either that or maintenance although I doubt the latter following the trends of schedules in the last few years.

[EI-A330-300]

Jack

They always least a minimum of one free day in schedules. Having 2 is needed as its to risky with SFo as a tech fault in SFO puts the schedule out by 24 hrs.

If IAD does well I can see a fifth weekly added peak season.

They can't afford to max schedules out when a hub is being operated. It costs them to much.

They got stung.a couple of times last summe.

[Jamie2k9]

With the new re-jigging of the schedule now taken into account, there now remains a two weekly (Tues/Sat), A330-200 slot for a transatlantic route. I doubt they would use a two weekly slot to launch another destination. I think more or less they will use it for extra capacity on Europe in the evening after the A332 is back from FAO that morning (On Tues/Sat), either that or maintenance although I doubt the latter following the trends of schedules in the last few years.

2 gaps were kept during summer 14 and I think not certain it was 3 in summer 13 schedules also. You are right they did the odd rescue to Europe and replaced some delayed T/A departures. Majority of the time they were given a rest though!

[Una Due Tfc]

This sums it up nicely

[url]http://www.irishtimes.com/business/sectors/transport-and-tourism/aer-lingus-announces-new-dublin-to-washington-route-1.1989108[/

SNN-BOS "increases capacity" which is obviously the 767. Speaking of which, whenever I've seen 767s contracted in by EI on trans Atlantic it's been either Omni or Atlas. Last time I remember clearly was when EI-ORD and EI-LAX went bang on the same day

So EI trans Atlantic in peak summer (open to correction here): DUB-JFK 3 x daily: 2 xA332/3, 1 x B752, SNN-JFK 6 x weekly B752, DUB-BOS 2 x Daily A332/3, SNN-BOS 1 x Daily B763, DUB-ORD 2 x daily A332/3, DUB-SFO 1 x daily A332, DUB-YYZ 1 x daily B752, DUB-IAD 4 x weekly A332, DUB-MCO 4 x weekly A332

[airbourne]

-LAX being the oldest in the fleet, will it be doing the Novair contract this winter again?

[MCDU2]

DAA was what I heard.

[racedo]

Belfast international airport suing Aer Lingus for ?25 million - Independent.ie (http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/belfast-international-airport-suing-aer-lingus-for-25-million-30732370.html)

Belfast International seeking £25 million following EI exit halfway through 5 year deal.....

[EI-A330-300]

Think they will win it however no way will BFS get 20 million out of it if it was lost.

Wonder was a change in management at BFS placed into the contract.

[racedo]

I don't think they have a snowball in the sahara's chance of £25 M but I don't see it as not going to cost something.

Change of management is probably not relevant unless New management acted in a way that EI would say that they had no other option but to cancel.

Even then they will need to show that after making representations to new management nothing was done, leaving no option but to cancel.

I think like most disputes this will not go to Judgement, will see inside of court room but parties will come up with a negotiated settlement.

[Devonair]

I see EI codes are now on Flybe services from DUB. One anomaly I've spotted: Inverness and Southampton are live on the EI website however, Exeter is not.

I have managed to get a quote for an EI fare from EXT-JFK with Skyscanner for GBP3419 return (I'm guessing the full economy fare!) Anyone in EI know when EXT fares will be loaded on the EI website. Aer Lingus were very vague on Twitter and Flybe's response was something about 'the summer timetable not being finalised yet'???

I assume someone just has to load the correct fares in the system if the codes have already be added....? Or is there some other reason for the delay.

[ILS25]

There had been no change in owners or management at BFS when EI made the decision to leave.

[gavinhicks]

Will there be any new route announcements from Shannon Belfast or cork over the next few weeks

[EI-A330-300]

A passengers is trying to sue Aer Lingus for $1 million dollars who is distressed at the loss of a engagement ring on a JFK-AMS flight.


They are also being sued $75,000 by another American passenger for allergically being hit by baggage on a HEL-DUB flight.


I mean what planet do Americans live on!


Aer Lingus sued for $1m by woman distressed at loss of 'priceless' ring - Independent.ie (http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/courts/aer-lingus-sued-for-1m-by-woman-distressed-at-loss-of-priceless-ring-30778321.html)

[Jack1985]

It's predominately in American culture to sue rather then deliberate unfortunately.

[EI-A330-300]

Christoph Mueller to take over as CEO of Malaysia Airlines.

[Una Due Tfc]

I'm guessing he'll have to give up his position on the board of An Post too

[vkid]

Apparently not, staying on at An Post..strangely enough. Not sure how that will work.

Christoph Mueller to remain as An Post chairman - despite move to Malaysia - Independent.ie (http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/christoph-mueller-to-remain-as-an-post-chairman-despite-move-to-malaysia-30802231.html)

[Just a spotter]

The role of Chairman isn't has involved in the daily running of an organisation as that of CEO. At a minimum, it's just running the board meetings, then starts to increase depending on the needs of the other board members/directors/share holders/other CxO level executives.

JAS

[AerRyan]

So, for the SNN-BOS route next summer, does anyone know the type of 767 to be used and where it will be sourced from?

[EISNN]

Omni is he 767 operator. Not sure what type.

[Epsomdog]

Aircraft will be Omni International 767-200. The spare 757 will op DUB JFK daily leaving at 0750.

[AerRyan]

1). =The 767-200 has seating of up to 240 (I though Aer Lingus listed the 767 upgrade as 210 seats?).

2). No business class on Omni! But will they be putting in a business class, which would reduce the seats to 210?

[Una Due Tfc]

When is the last 330 due to get the new business class cabin? I expect the 767 will either get a new business class cabin before it goes into a 330 or the old cabin from a 330 with the new one

[GrahamK]

I thought Omni only had 767-300s?

[AerRyan]

Nope, they have 767-200's, as well as 767-300's and 777-200's

[Una Due Tfc]

Are they IFE equipped? Ptvs in every seat? That may have a role in whether they bother putting in a business class cabin. Putting in a whole business class IFE, charging ports etc would be a very expensive thing to do for an aircraft you only plan on having for 12 weeks, especially for an aircraft mainly used for troop movements, charters and last minute rescues a la Titan

[Shanwickman]

Yes individual in-seat IFE

[Rain dog]

Their 2 777's have them, but not their 767's as I understand it.

[AerRyan]

Boeing 767-200ER

Omni's Fleet includes two (2) B767-200ER aircraft offering a range of approximately 6,500 nm.

MTOW: 395,000lbs MLW: 300,000lbs.
MZFW: 260,000lbs Payload: 71,500lbs.
All Economy seating for up to 240 passengers. All leather B777 style interior. Individual In-Seat IFE.




Their 767-200 have In seat IFE, but their 767-300s appear not to have that feature, as it is not listed in their descriptions.

[flying officer kite]

Does anyone know the dates Omni will operate the BOS-SNN route? Last time i checked i could only see the Air Contractors 757 still mentioned

[AerRyan]

From roughly the 6th of June to the 28th of august are the approximat datdesfor the service.

[Jamie2k9]

Bodrum and Monastir ex Dublin will be announced soon. Last time Monastir was announced it did not operate.

[AerRyan]

Didn't think they had any spare capacity.

[Marcus Absent]

Hi All, anyone know why the A330 turned round about 2 hours out and returned to DUB. A friend of mine was on it and very annoyed, hotac'd last night and returned to MAN this morning to fly out on Virgin.

[EI-A330-300]

Minor engine fault. It came back to Dublin to make things easier.

Would your friend be annoyed if the aircraft dropped out of the sky to?

[Noxegon]

Would your friend be annoyed if the aircraft dropped out of the sky?

I'm not the original poster, but I think a little more sensitivity is called for here.

To lose a day of long-anticipated holiday time due to something out of your control _is_ annoying, all the more so when your rebooking is the next day via a connecting flight rather than your original non-stop.

Just my €0.02.

[AerRyan]

I'm not the original poster, but I think a little more sensitivity is called for here.

To lose a day of long-anticipated holiday time due to something out of your control _is_ annoying, all the more so when your rebooking is the next day via a connecting flight rather than your original non-stop.

Just my €0.02.


From the way I read it, they were from Manchester. I may be wrong.

[j636]

Pension approval given. Ryanair didn't use their vote.

[Angry Rebel]

It looks like Ryanair did vote because the total votes cast were around 80% of votes in issue. Unless they only voted part of their shareholding which wouldn't make much sense....

[Tooloose]

FR didn't vote at the agm. They voted in advance of the agm.

[Just a spotter]

According to The Irish Independent, 10th Dec 2014

Aer Lingus could have new CEO by end of month

Aer Lingus could have new CEO by end of month - Independent.ie (http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/aer-lingus-could-have-new-ceo-by-end-of-month-30819436.html)

JAS

[EI-A330-300]

Form of Business Class may return to key Euro routes next year. Believed to be called Premier Europe.

[Shamrock350]

It was reported in the Independent today, appears to suggest the Premier Europe name because Premier is what Aer Lingus brand their transatlantic business product but this hasn't been the case for a few years now, everything was rebranded simply as Business Class so I doubt it's going to happen. A more finely tuned business fare might be offered in the near future but I don't see the return of a separate cabin.

[Una Due Tfc]

Could fit in with the 330s being used on limited European routes next year. The early Rome flight tends to be rammed in the Summer I'm told

[EI-A330-300]

Rumours of possible bid from IAG for EI|
Aer Lingus shares jump after rumoured IAG bid (http://www.irishtimes.com/business/transport-and-tourism/aer-lingus-shares-jump-after-rumoured-iag-bid-1.2042517#.VJLpd1SMoY8.twitter)

http://www.4-traders.com/RYANAIR-HOLDINGS-PLC-1412410/news/PRESS-IAG-Considering-Bid-For-Aer-Lingus-Financial-Times-19564343/

UK rule tomorrow on Ryanair stake.

As for the Business class that's where I saw it but couldn't post a link.

[Barling Magna]

IAG bid for Aer Lingus has been rejected.

[EI-A330-300]

So it has!

Aer Lingus rejects IAG takeover approach - RTÉ News (http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2014/1218/667611-aer-lingus-regional-passenger-numbers-up-20/)

[Heathrow Harry]

BA trying to add to their slots and build a monopoly at LHR

[EI-A330-300]

BA trying to add to their slots and build a monopoly at LHR

Walsh knows the Government would not give them backing unless all the slots were to remain on Irish-LHR routes so that can't be his main motivation.

[Hangar6]

IAG maybe aware of the pending ruling outcome re FR share holding,
EI may look again at LHR ABZ/EDi flights when Wee REd finishes
BA see EI 350 order for 9 planes as worth grabbing for themselves, long lead in time for a new Airbus and BAcmight want these from EI and

EI are taking good volumes of pax ex UK to USA , so remove a competitor , get new planes quicker and more slots , worth a punt , but my shares are staying with me for now

[Fairdealfrank]

BA trying to add to their slots and build a monopoly at LHR



Walsh knows the Government would not give them backing unless all the slots were to remain on Irish-LHR routes so that can't be his main motivation.


Having seen the asset-stripping of BD slots by LH from the sidelines before 2012, acquiring EI may have more to do with preventing the same being done to EI by another carrier rather than BA doing it. BA are not actually short of LHR slots now, and may be getting another 9 slot pairs when VS ends domestic in 2015.

[EI-BUD]

In my view, this is a positive development. I see natuaral synergies between IAG and Aer Lingus. And contrary to comments, I do not see this as being an attempt by BA to gain more US traffic via LHR ex Ireland. The Ireland US network is strong, and will continue to grow. Dublin has potential for massive EU-US expansion. Like Dubai has, and we see even at airports like Reykjavik Icelandair, on the back of a very small population can sustain a great US network built on connecting traffic, Dublin has so much more potential.

The Dublin/ London route is a massive market, which is totally a focal point, why on earth would BA be a threat to that. What I could see is that larger aircraft could be used at a reduced frequency, that would make a lot of sense. Many of the departure times of BA and EI are largely complimentary in any case. Consolidate Aer Lingus' position on Ireland UK and release some slots, continue to grow the hub at Dublin.

The other benefits would be those of scale e.g. procurement and handling etc. Aer Lingus could bring its own strenghts to bear on the group operation and secure its future, which without a strong partner, could be extremely challenging. IAG is the right group for EI....

[Cyrano]

If IAG were successful in a bid for Aer Lingus, there would be a referral to the competition authorities, who would analyse the deal on a route-by-route basis. DUB-LHR is currently an EI/BA duopoly and would fall to a monopoly, so one would expect that the price of approval for a deal would be the surrender of a package of slots in DUB and LHR to allow a competitor to enter that route. Who would a credible competitor be? Easyjet? Eurowings? Little Red operated by Aer Lingus? (that last one is a joke, by the way ;) )

[EI-BUD]

Cyrano, re your comments about surrender of slots on DUB LHR, we didn't see the same when IB and BA came together in IAG. In fact BA exclusively operate LHR BCN now ...

[Fairdealfrank]

The Dublin/ London route is a massive market, which is totally a focal point, why on earth would BA be a threat to that. What I could see is that larger aircraft could be used at a reduced frequency, that would make a lot of sense. Many of the departure times of BA and EI are largely complimentary in any case. Consolidate Aer Lingus' position on Ireland UK and release some slots, continue to grow the hub at Dublin.
Didn't BA codeshare with EI on LHR-DUB when BD was on the route and BA wern't.


The other benefits would be those of scale e.g. procurement and handling etc. Aer Lingus could bring its own strenghts to bear on the group operation and secure its future, which without a strong partner, could be extremely challenging. IAG is the right group for EI....
Agreed, and it would probably lead to EI rejoining Oneworld and possibly the BA/AA/IB joint venture on TA.


Cyrano, re your comments about surrender of slots on DUB LHR, we didn't see the same when IB and BA came together in IAG. In fact BA exclusively operate LHR BCN now ...
Indeed, and IAG ownership or not, LHR-ORK and LHR-SNN would remain EI only routes.

Maybe there would be an issue for LHR-DUB and some slots would have to go, but only if another carrier was interested, and judging by the VS experience............

[Hangar6]

Mm hear that the 4 320's will be rebranded Star Alliance and continue on ABZ and EDI ,with UA as a partner
Now that might cause a few thoughts on bid offers?

[pwalhx]

From where will they obtain the slots for this?

[AerRyan]

I think they already have the slots. AFAIK Virgin were using EI slots with their Little Red

[pwalhx]

I thought they were Virgin slots and Aer Lingus were operating on their behalf.

[Una Due Tfc]

They were BMI slots given to VIR when BA bought BMI. They had to be used domestically and VIR were given them to compete with BA. When Little Red ends they actually go back to.....BA, or at least that's the case if nobody else steps in to compete with BA. Maybe EI can do this

[pwalhx]

Given to VIR in a bidding competition, my point is you cannot assume Aer Lingus may automatically inherit the right to use them, or even be given the chance to use them.

I understood if VIR failed to use them for the 3 year period they would revert to BA, be interesting to see what happens.

[Dontgothere]

According to Jethro's site, EI-EWR will now be replaced with a 767, is there any truth to these claims?

[racedo]

If IAG were successful in a bid for Aer Lingus, there would be a referral to the competition authorities, who would analyse the deal on a route-by-route basis.

Then give it a nod through as its not FR buying and watch as Dublin becomes a remote outpost as the jobs get moved elsewhere.

[Hangar6]

Oh dear it must be the season of goodwill , I agree with Racedo

FR and BA would close EI asap if they got control, jobs would go overnight

EI just does too well for both of their liking !

[Fairdealfrank]

I understood if VIR failed to use them for the 3 year period they would revert to BA, be interesting to see what happens.


My understanding as well unless another (EU) carrier wants to take it on. Can only think of EI and U2 as possible contenders, but not having an interest in it before, don't see what has changed.



FR and BA would close EI asap if they got control, jobs would go overnight


Don't see any circumstances where both FR and BA would be running EI.

In the event of BA and EI have to lose some LHR-DUB slots, it's unlikely that FR would want to operate the route. FR has clearly stated that it is not interested in LHR, CDG and FRA.

Would FR be allowed to lease out the slots? Unlikely.



EI just does too well for both of their liking !


Indeed, if that's the case, get a piece of the action. Buy EI and pocket the profits, don't fix it if it's not broken.

[Cian]

According to Jethro's site, EI-EWR will now be replaced with a 767, is there any truth to these claims?


The 767 is for SNN to upgauge BOS for a few months and give DUB a third JFK using the 757 released; its a different lease.

[racedo]

Oh dear it must be the season of goodwill , I agree with Racedo

FR and BA would close EI asap if they got control, jobs would go overnight


You have agreed with me before.................... you know you have :E

FR wouldn't close it as no need to do so just intergrate........... yup jobs would have gone but they not customer facing ones.

The No to Fr side said no need to lose any jobs at EI and then EI management proved FR correct in doing what FR said it would do.

[Una Due Tfc]

I were an EI employee, I'd pick IAG over FR for job security all day long! But it's not a choice I would enjoy making. It's immaterial anyway, competition authorities have repeatedly blocked and FR takeover, and IAG have made a bid they knew the EI board would reject. I think whoever BA are trying to scare off might be the one to worry about.

[EI-A330-300]

IAG will never get it over the line even with a higher bid, EY and the Gov make up 30% so if FR backed them they will still find it dofficult to secure the other shareholders which all only have tiny shares. The fourth biggest holder (2.1%) said they would consider if an extra 35c per share was added.

The big question is will FR go to the market now or really drag it to Europe again and waste more cash.

[Fairdealfrank]

IAG will never get it over the line even with a higher bid, EY and the Gov make up 30% so if FR backed them they will still find it dofficult to secure the other shareholders which all only have tiny shares. The fourth biggest holder (2.1%) said they would consider if an extra 35c per share was added.


Never say never. If FR has to sell, it might as well be to IAG, and get a good price. The BA/FR businesses hardly overlap, maybe on a handful of city-pairs but no airport-pairs.

EY could only ever own 49% of EI, so much depends on the Irish government's attitude, and there would undoubtly be some "red lines". Does it need the dosh? Would it prefer "the devil you know" to "who knows"?

[AerRyan]

IAG buying Aer Lingus would be 10x worse than Ryanair buying Aer Lingus.

IAG will efficetively shut down all transfer traffic from the Uk-Us via Dublin. The hub status that Dublin is hoping to achieve would be no longer possible and EI would probably pull out of Shannon and Cork.

[Faire d'income]

IAG buying Aer Lingus would be 10x worse than Ryanair buying Aer Lingus.

IAG will efficetively shut down all transfer traffic from the Uk-Us via Dublin. The hub status that Dublin is hoping to achieve would be no longer possible and EI would probably pull out of Shannon and Cork.

History paints a completely different picture. Just look at Buzz.


It might be worth recalling what happened at Vueling if we want to predict the near future.

IAG offered €7 a share and were unsuccessful. They then returned with an offer of €9.25 (a 32%) increase and succeeded.

I haven't read what price IAG had in mind with their recent offer to the EI board but even if it was as low as €2 per share, if they follow their Vueling strategy, they could return with an offer of at least €2.64.

[NWSRG]

IAG will efficetively shut down all transfer traffic from the Uk-Us via Dublin. The hub status that Dublin is hoping to achieve would be no longer possible and EI would probably pull out of Shannon and Cork.

Not so sure...DUB might be an enticing option for UK regions to the US, and BA might well support that. If it takes some pressure off the LHR operation, it could be beneficial for BA. I actually think EI in IAG would be in a healthy position...finally having the protection and resources of a big group, and possibly playing a key role in that group via DUB.

[Fairdealfrank]

IAG will efficetively shut down all transfer traffic from the Uk-Us via Dublin. The hub status that Dublin is hoping to achieve would be no longer possible and EI would probably pull out of Shannon and Cork.


Think that is most unlikely, what would be the point?

Surely the motivation for IAG to buy EI is:

(1) having seen (from the sidelines) LH asset strip BD's LHR slots after 2009, IAG would be reluctant to see another carrier/group do similar to EI at LHR and upset the current balance at "fortress Heathrow";

(2) if there's a profitable outfit with a thriving trans-Atlantic sector and a big presence at LHR up for sale, it would be stupid not to buy it;

(3) it creates the ability to channel trans-Atlantic pax from airports not linked to LHR through DUB and take on KL;

(4) it creates the ability to offer trans-Atlantic pax from airports an additional option of using USA pre-clearance at DUB;

(5) to leave EI as an Irish "flag carrier" (it may be a regulatory requirement) because it's profitable, and because BA doesn't need LHR slots, there's no need to asset strip EI's LHR slots.

[Buster the Bear]

Did BA close down Iberia?

[Una Due Tfc]

Nope, just focused them more on South America. Am I right in saying only BA routes to South America now are Buenos Aires, Rio and Sau Paulo? And only IB routes to NA are ORD, JFK, BOS and LAX? Obviously consolodations have been made there.

I find it unlikely BA are going to increase EI's TA schedule at the expense of their own, as opposed to reducing their SA offerings to suit IB, as has happened

[Fairdealfrank]

Nope, just focused them more on South America. Am I right in saying only BA routes to South America now are Buenos Aires, Rio and Sau Paulo? And only IB routes to NA are ORD, JFK, BOS and LAX? Obviously consolodations have been made there.
If you mean BA, it may happen when it has sufficient longhaul aircraft, at present, it doesn't, hence the use of some the LHR slots it inherited for Mediterranean holiday sun flights.


I find it unlikely BA are going to increase EI's TA schedule at the expense of their own, as opposed to reducing their SA offerings to suit IB, as has happened
Agreed, maybe in addition if demand warrants it, i.e. there are sufficient numbers of connecting pax from UK airports served by EI from DUB, but not by BA from LHR.

[Una Due Tfc]

Do you really think BA are willing to give up on virtually all non-London based UK TA pax Frank? Because EI are targetting these pax big time ATM.

I think from every angle EI are a great buy for IAG, either to protect the LHR slots, absorb them, or use DUB as an outlet valve for the UK regions as has been suggested. Would it be better for EI than continued independence though is questionable, since a decent chunk of their TA pax, which is their moneymaker atm, are coming at BA's expense. David and Goliath of course, but the little bit of business David is taking from the giant is crucial.

[EI-BUD]

why on earth would IAG take over EI only to curb its transatlantic operation . Without it many UK and Euto routes would not survive. Willie Walsh is only too aware of this. Looking at this another way, giving more connectivity via Dublin can allow BA to build new routes at a crowded Heathrow and let's face it, it's going to be a while until new slots come up at LHR...

[AerRyan]

As it is late any my phone hates me, I will make my point brief.

Iberia would not affected much due to BA and IB having different markets. How many UK airports did IB serve before the sale? Never many. How many does EI serve? A hell of a lot more than IB anyway. Why BA would want to jeprodise their UK and Domestic traffic is beyond me.

If BA wanted a second airport for its TA traffic, it would use Gatwick or Glasgow/Edinburgh, not Dublin. Dublin is a very worrying competition for BA and they are growing fast.

My opinion on what BA may do is they would mess with the schedule of the T/A flights or the UK flights if possible to make them far less attractive to transfers. T/A routes may be downscaled due to lack of passenger Demand and certainly would not grow anymore. Instead of going to Dublin, many English passengers would instead drive/fly to Heathrow and further increase the loads on BA' flights.

[EI-BUD]

AerRyan,

Is it your contention that IAG took over AerLingus this would only be in order to curb its expansion in order to bolster London Heathrow loads with pax coming from the UK regions?

IAG in my view want to make a significant investment, they will want that to grow and be fruitful, EI need the TA feed to make make many of the Dublin UK and Europe routes work, and in the face of FR competition on these routes the transfer pax are needed. Eg Dub GLA, NCL, BHX etc. IAG will see the strategic advantage that long term the Dublin operation can offer. Let's not also ignore the commerciality of the EI business, especially transatlantic, their margins are very good comparatively speaking.

I'm not at all convinced that Iberia to the UK regions is a good comparison. Iberia has been traditionally high cost and not competitive, like BA flying to the regions has been left largely to LOCO carriers, exit stage BA from the regions largely and Iberia is not cut out for such routes, hence Vueling vehicle, besides this market is crowded. Aer Lingus on the other hand is capable of successfully competing with Ryanair. IB has totally and traditionally failed to link spain ( outside of mad and BCN) with international destinations. BCN has limited operation now too . Hence BA centre on successful London routes, Iberia successful Madrid routes and Aer Lingus successful Dublin routes. Hub and spoke. The rest will be left to Vueling and to lesser extent IB express.

[AerRyan]

AerRyan,

Is it your contention that IAG took over AerLingus this would only be in order to curb its expansion in order to bolster London Heathrow loads with pax coming from the UK regions?
Mostly, yes. I'd imagine LHR gets alot of its transfer pax from the UK, and if EI is to take alot of this aswell as taking origin pax, than BA must either accept the competition or Stop the competition.


IAG in my view want to make a significant investment, they will want that to grow and be fruitful, EI need the TA feed to make make many of the Dublin UK and Europe routes work, and in the face of FR competition on these routes the transfer pax are needed. Eg Dub GLA, NCL, BHX etc. IAG will see the strategic advantage that long term the Dublin operation can offer. Let's not also ignore the commerciality of the EI business, especially transatlantic, their margins are very good comparatively speaking.

Why would anyone want to grow a business that would hurt another of their business'? IAG in my view want to make as much profit as they can, and if this means smothering their competition while getting the added benefit of gaining a profit from another part of EI, than why wouldn't they buy it?

A company should not own two competing Airlines that are based only a few hundred miles from eachother. It just doesn't make sense.

I'm not at all convinced that Iberia to the UK regions is a good comparison. Iberia has been traditionally high cost and not competitive, like BA flying to the regions has been left largely to LOCO carriers, exit stage BA from the regions largely and Iberia is not cut out for such routes, hence Vueling vehicle, besides this market is crowded. Aer Lingus on the other hand is capable of successfully competing with Ryanair. IB has totally and traditionally failed to link spain ( outside of mad and BCN) with international destinations. BCN has limited operation now too . Hence BA centre on successful London routes, Iberia successful Madrid routes and Aer Lingus successful Dublin routes. Hub and spoke. The rest will be left to Vueling and to lesser extent IB express.
Iberia is not a good comparision to Aer Lingus, thats exactly why IAG buying Iberia would not hurt Madrid or any other spanish airport.

[EI-BUD]

AerRyan,

We have different perspectives on this and you see it through a different lense than I. The fact is that EI while successful are small and need a strategic partner. Technically speaking this needs to come from within the EU to get a 50% shareholding. Hence, all carriers of scale will be no different to BA in terms of competition .

For BA to invest in the model just to curb its expansion or limit there competition on the Atlantic is a nonsense. Firstly in relative terms the EI transatlantic operation is tiny. BA's don't have capacity to satisfy a ramped up demand on their domestic routes as a result of a reduction in EI connectivity via Dublin. More importantly, should EI's transatlantic business suffer significant cuts , EI will struggle, is this what IAG would want? No.

If your vision materialised you can be sure a void would be filled and the US carriers would quickly ramp up their Dublin operations. BA couldn't do much about that ... BA have bigger challenges for the connectivity that KLM offer to the UK regions via AMS to the rest of the world ...

[Just a spotter]

"Strategic partner" is quite a euphemistic term and we should be careful about using it. It can cover a multitude of corporate "sins".

First off, what is the strategy/long term plan of the EI board and the intentions of the EI share holders?

Secondly, what partners are needed/wanted/useful in achieving those ends?

If your goal is just to sell your shares then any buyer is a "strategic partner". If you have a different view and want to grow your company then anyone who can bring resources that promote, nurture and assist in that goal fits the bill.

Do we have any clear indication from EI or any EI share holders on their position or plan? What would a "partner" look like?

A full take over buyer is only a "strategic partner" when your plan is to be bought. Of late, EI has shown it can independently survive and deliver some growth in the face of a less than favourable environment that includes very stiff competition and difficult economic conditions. IMHO, it doesn't necessairly need to be taken over in order to continue and prosper, however, additional growth options may exist with the right partner, while other avenues may severely curtail future options.

Then there's the awkward question of what if one share holder were to see subjective strategic opportunities for themselves in the disposal of their holding to a third party that might not result in with the best for the organisation and/or other stake holders? In that case, the potential buyer is most definitely a "strategic partner" for that one seller.

JAS

[alserire]

SFO, YYZ and the 16.10 to BOS all cancelled today along with incoming from Orlando.

Anything going on? Seems a lot of cancellations.

[DublinPole]

Weather is the reason being given.

[EI-A330-300]

SFO, YYZ and the 16.10 to BOS all cancelled today along with incoming from Orlando.

Anything going on? Seems a lot of cancellations.

They were never scheduled for the 24th and nobody took them out of the system.

The last outbound YYZ/SFO was Monday and only one BOS was scheduled today.

[alserire]

Thanks. Listed on Dublin Airport mobile app as being cancelled. Thought it was a bit odd alright.

[Fairdealfrank]

Do you really think BA are willing to give up on virtually all non-London based UK TA pax Frank? Because EI are targetting these pax big time ATM.
Did not actually state that. If EI are targeting BA, then it makes sense for IAG to own both.

In a way, EI is targeting KL more than BA, because BA (or any feeder carrier) does not have the reach throughout the UK, thanks to the lack of capacity at LHR.

EI is not taking away from BA because BA is not present in these areas (i.e. UK airports not linked to LHR). By buying EI, IAG as a whole gets access to this traffic.


I think from every angle EI are a great buy for IAG, either to protect the LHR slots, absorb them, or use DUB as an outlet valve for the UK regions as has been suggested. Would it be better for EI than continued independence though is questionable, since a decent chunk of their TA pax, which is their moneymaker atm, are coming at BA's expense. David and Goliath of course, but the little bit of business David is taking from the giant is crucial.Agreed, on many levels it would be extremely foolish and a huge strategic bungle for IAG not to Buy EI if the opportunity arises.


why on earth would IAG take over EI only to curb its transatlantic operation. Without it many UK and Euto routes would not survive. Willie Walsh is only too aware of this. Looking at this another way, giving more connectivity via Dublin can allow BA to build new routes at a crowded Heathrow and let's face it, it's going to be a while until new slots come up at LHR...
Exactly, it's sort of hedging bets. The EI trans-Atlantic operation complements the existing BA/IB/AA joint venture offering.


Iberia would not affected much due to BA and IB having different markets. How many UK airports did IB serve before the sale? Never many. How many does EI serve? A hell of a lot more than IB anyway. Why BA would want to jeprodise their UK and Domestic traffic is beyond me.
BA is not jeopardising it's UK and domestic traffic. BA would not be buying EI, IAG would be, and by buying it, would ensure that if BA loses traffic to EI on trans-Atlantic, the parent group IAG (which has the shareholders) is not. This concept should not be difficult to understand.

Why could BA and EI not co-exist in much the same as LH, SN, OS, LX, etc., do in the LH group?


If BA wanted a second airport for its TA traffic, it would use Gatwick or Glasgow/Edinburgh, not Dublin. Dublin is a very worrying competition for BA and they are growing fast.
It's been done before, it no longer worked, and it was ended.

BA did trans-Atlantic from LGW, MAN, and, back in the day, GLA/PIK.

If it is the case that DUB is indeed very worrying competition for BA and growing fast, then why not get a piece of the action?

From IAG's point of view, doesn't this make perfect sense? From EI's point of view does it not also make sense?

For EI, it would be "the devil you know". Another buyer may want to "do a BD" on EI and canabalise it for LHR slots. IAG would not, as BA has enough LHR slots now.


My opinion on what BA may do is they would mess with the schedule of the T/A flights or the UK flights if possible to make them far less attractive to transfers. T/A routes may be downscaled due to lack of passenger Demand and certainly would not grow anymore. Instead of going to Dublin, many English passengers would instead drive/fly to Heathrow and further increase the loads on BA' flights.
Why do this if it's going well? Why could IAG not run the airlines independently of eachother, like the LH group does with LH, SN, OS, LX, etc.?



Why would anyone want to grow a business that would hurt another of their business'? IAG in my view want to make as much profit as they can, and if this means smothering their competition while getting the added benefit of gaining a profit from another part of EI, than why wouldn't they buy it?

A company should not own two competing Airlines that are based only a few hundred miles from eachother. It just doesn't make sense.
Why ever not? It does make sense! that's the whole point, IAG would make money from both.

It's not BA and EI in isolation. The parent company, IAG, would be buying EI, not BA.

[EI-A330-300]

Thanks. Listed on Dublin Airport mobile app as being cancelled. Thought it was a bit odd alright.

Forgot to add the MCO was rescheduled because of tech issues and landed at 00.00 tonight.

[Noxegon]

Yeah, I saw that and thought briefly how awesome it'd be if that was the regularly scheduled time. I do prefer eastbound daytime flights.

[Just a spotter]

There is also one other possibility in the IAG-EI picture that should be considered ... the idea of an "inversion takeover", where one company takes over a second that's in a lower tax jurisdiction and then relocates it's head office to the acquired business's HQ.

Is it possible that IAG is viewing the Irish 12.5% corporate tax rate as a benefit of purchasing EI? Might Aer Lingus's status as an Irish company be, in and of itself attractive to a potential buyer? Could IAG become an Irish domiciled organisation for tax purposes should the purchase take place?

JAS

[EI-BUD]

I was just reading a very detailed article online with compelling analysis of the competitive position on the Atlantic by carrier.

It explains that the Irish government may seek assurances on the Aer Lingus slots at LHR, as would be naturally expected. However, by simply stepping up aircraft size to 321's across the board on EI services over 320's and 319's, the seat levels could be maintained and a batch of slots in the bag.

Equally at Belfast City post a take over by IAG, there is an opportunity for consolidation and a move from 9/10 319/320 operation to say 6 321 services.

The net effect of these suggested changes to DUB LHR and BHD LHR could net BA 10+ slots per day while satisfying the Irish Government.

[j636]

EI-BUD

The 321s are common on LHR and at times could easily make up 5/6 daily already. Frequancy is key and not capacity which EI have demonstrated.

The only slots the Goverment wouldnt care about of those at BHD.

Remember BA could go back to 100% using EI into LHR if they really needed the slots but why don't they??

[ryan2000]

What about the slots serving Cork and Shannon, surely the Irish Government will have an interest in them as well. incidentally are Aerkingus or the Government the owners of the slots. There was some debate about that back in 2007 when EI pulled out of SNN LHR and used them for BHD instead.

[EI-BUD]

J636,
Point taken re 321's on London but it's a very recent thing to see 321's back on DUB LHR at any reasonable frequency, 319's also as common in the route, of the 2 319's working out if DUB they are regularly appearing on LHR.

Also, pre BA's return to DUB LHR bmi were doing 4 daily ( down from their high of 8 and at times 9 rotations a day) and some services were Embraer. An up weighted aircraft size at frequency of 14//15 a day would be more than sufficient. 330 could do early morning services on arrival from US roures, like AGP in summer.

[MCDU2]

Varadkar is on record as saying that any "agreement" over the preservation of slots is not worth the paper it's printed on. There is little or no legal basis to enforce them once the government sells its shares save the EU coming up with some legislation to assist little ole Ireland. Market forces will dictate where the slots will be used.

[Fairdealfrank]

There is also one other possibility in the IAG-EI picture that should be considered ... the idea of an "inversion takeover", where one company takes over a second that's in a lower tax jurisdiction and then relocates it's head office to the acquired business's HQ.

Is it possible that IAG is viewing the Irish 12.5% corporate tax rate as a benefit of purchasing EI? Might Aer Lingus's status as an Irish company be, in and of itself attractive to a potential buyer? Could IAG become an Irish domiciled organisation for tax purposes should the purchase take place?
Interesting idea, but probably a happy bi-product than the main motivation. Corporation tax is 30% in Spain and 21% in the UK, yet IAG is Spanish based.

IAG approach

I was just reading a very detailed article online with compelling analysis of the competitive position on the Atlantic by carrier.

Could you post the link please, EI-BUD, it sounds like an article worth reading.


What about the slots serving Cork and Shannon, surely the Irish Government will have an interest in them as well.

Yes, would imagine that these would ned to be safeguarded.


Varadkar is on record as saying that any "agreement" over the preservation of slots is not worth the paper it's printed on. There is little or no legal basis to enforce them once the government sells its shares save the EU coming up with some legislation to assist little ole Ireland. Market forces will dictate where the slots will be used.


Varadkar is history, he's now at health, but he may, of course, be right.

[gavinhicks]

Looks like Stobart taking on cfn-gla on mon,thurs,fri,sun with an atr 42 from march 29

[AerRyan]

They are taking it on straight away, 2pw till April, then 4pw.

[Schipholhand]

Willie Walsh is very clever. Clever enough, in fact, to leave Ryanair plodding around Eastern and Southern Europe, on cheap fares, while he wants I.A.G to have a dominant share in the second busiest market in the world i.e. Ireland/U.K.
plus a share of a huge Irish American market, which likes to travel to distant countries, when they can visit Ireland, on the way. Remember, he has been there, in various roles, so knows the score.

[Just a spotter]

Interesting idea, but probably a happy bi-product than the main motivation. Corporation tax is 30% in Spain and 21% in the UK, yet IAG is Spanish based.

As with many thing, one must look beyond the headlines. The effective tax rate, rather than the headline number is what most organisations look at (so start with the well know national headline corporate tax number, deduct what tax breaks exist, add on any regional or industry specific taxes etc), but it's not an exact science and some countries will "do deals".

According to one piece of research by the Institute of International and European Affairs in 2011, the UK had an effective corporate tax rate just above 23%, in Spain it was just under 21%, while Ireland's is about 12%.

JAS

[EI-A330-300]

Markets seem to think IAG may have offered a second bid yesterday!

[Hipennine]

While everybody seems to be looking at an IAG t/over in the context of competing with BA, that ignores the fact that (apart from the ME3) BA's biggest competitor for ex UK International is AFKLM out of the regions. For example, even at NCL, AFKLM offers more frequency to connect with TA than BA. An aggressive marketing approach by IAG using ex-UK regions via Dublin for TA might result in a substantial extraction from AFKLM pax numbers, impacting on the sustainability of their feeds to Schiphol and CDG.

[EK77WNCL]

This is going to sound bitter from a Brit but I hope all the transatlantic players big and small, from EI to AF/KL/DL to UA to FI etc. start to eat away at BA, because I think it's going to take BA losing out big time for the government to realise what a shambles LHR is and maybe even do something.

[Fairdealfrank]

Willie Walsh is very clever. Clever enough, in fact, to leave Ryanair plodding around Eastern and Southern Europe, on cheap fares, while he wants I.A.G to have a dominant share in the second busiest market in the world i.e. Ireland/U.K.
BTW, which is the busiest?


While everybody seems to be looking at an IAG t/over in the context of competing with BA, that ignores the fact that (apart from the ME3) BA's biggest competitor for ex UK International is AFKLM out of the regions. For example, even at NCL, AFKLM offers more frequency to connect with TA than BA. An aggressive marketing approach by IAG using ex-UK regions via Dublin for TA might result in a substantial extraction from AFKLM pax numbers, impacting on the sustainability of their feeds to Schiphol and CDG.
Exactly, have made the point in other posts. Both EI and KL connect some 20 UK airports to their hubs. BA cannot offer the same because of capacity constraints at LHR for the last 40 years. Buying EI allows BA to take on KL. Maybe this was part of the motivation for BA to buy KL all those years ago…..


This is going to sound bitter from a Brit but I hope all the transatlantic players big and small, from EI to AF/KL/DL to UA to FI etc. start to eat away at BA, because I think it's going to take BA losing out big time for the government to realise what a shambles LHR is and maybe even do something.
It does sound bitter, but don’t hold your breath.

It’s been happening for years, no, decades.

The government has remained unmotivated to allow LHR expansion.

[akerosid]

Some interesting fleet changes planned for this Summer and over the next 2-3 years; the planned A330-200 for this Summer (EI-EWR) is apparently not going ahead, because EI is trying to source an A333.

Also, the A319 fleet will be down by one unit next year (apparently to be replaced by a 321), and the A319s will be completely gone by 2017.

No word at all about A330NEos. Fourth 757 looks likely by next Summer (2016).

[EK77WNCL]

I know what you mean, very very inconsistent painting their leased aircraft in full Aer Lingus livery, using Aer Lingus crew and fitting them with full Aer Lingus interior, PTV's and lie flat business class.

Thousands of airliners are leased worldwide... I hardly see any inconsistency. It's probably that darn Air Contractors sticker on the nose ;)

[EI-BUD]

Aer Lingus selected 757 as a temporary measure to operate Shannon US routes that otherwise may not be viable . In the interim between when a suitable Airbus alternative becomes available eg 321neo.

In addition using the single aisle jet allows EI to test this arrangement. Also negates the need to add new types to its own fleet. It also enables EI to operate Dublin Toronto at lower cost to Air Canada and make the route viable. 330 much more expensive to operate, and in the lean winter is a great help here. Also enables EI to do routine maintenance in 330 , and 757's slot in, like is the case on the JFK route ex Dublin.

[EK77WNCL]

It appears the 757 is serving them very well though? I'm chuffed they have them and will be adding one more

[EI-A330-300]

IAG have purchased shares in EI for the second time since their bid!

[EI-BUD]

Could you post the link please, EI-BUD, it sounds like an article worth reading.

Fairdealfrank,

Here is the link, sorry only read your message now;
Aer Lingus rejects IAG's bid, but an old acquaintance should not be forgot. IAG will be back | CAPA - Centre for Aviation (http://centreforaviation.com/analysis/aer-lingus-rejects-iags-bid-but-an-old-acquaintance-should-not-be-forgot-iag-will-be-back-203062)

You may need to copy and paste to read it.

EI-BUD

[AerRyan]

Some interesting fleet changes planned for this Summer and over the next 2-3 years; the planned A330-200 for this Summer (EI-EWR) is apparently not going ahead, because EI is trying to source an A333.

Also, the A319 fleet will be down by one unit next year (apparently to be replaced by a 321), and the A319s will be completely gone by 2017.

No word at all about A330NEos. Fourth 757 looks likely by next Summer (2016).

The a319s will be gone by 2017? Should shannon start worrying about its heathrow route again?
What would the 4th 757 do?

Aer Lingus settles on Omni Air for B767 lease requirements - ch-aviation.com (http://www.ch-aviation.com/portal/news/34058-aer-lingus-settles-on-omni-air-for-b767-lease-requirements)
According to that article, EI is taking the 767 to cover the loss of EI-EWR and to cover the SNN-BOS route. That seems to be confused.

[Schipholhand]

Leasing gives the airline the options of changing types, take advantage of market conditions, negotiate leases with no depreciations worries and increase or expand crewing requirements, to fit the market. Owning aircraft is a way of amassing liabilities, which, like our old bangers, can be very difficult to get rid of when you need to change capacity and routes.

[Fairdealfrank]

Fairdealfrank,

Here is the link, sorry only read your message now;
Aer Lingus rejects IAG's bid, but an old acquaintance should not be forgot. IAG will be back | CAPA - Centre for Aviation (http://centreforaviation.com/analysis/aer-lingus-rejects-iags-bid-but-an-old-acquaintance-should-not-be-forgot-iag-will-be-back-203062)

You may need to copy and paste to read it.

EI-BUD



Thanks for the link, EI-BUD, was interesting.

[EI-A330-300]

Muller will now leave at end of next month after 2014 announced have being delivered. Colm Barringto (chair of board) will take over executive responsibility immediately and take over as CEO in March until a new appointment is made.

Mueller to leave Aer Lingus earlier than planned - RTÉ News (http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2015/0107/671035-mueller-aer-lingus/)

Also EI and EIR carried 11.1 million passengers in 2014 up from 10.7 million in 2013.

[EI-BUD]

Airbourne,

A return to Dub DXB!!! So Aer Lingus are going to compete with their shareholder (albeit small shareholding) who fly to AUH and align with Qantas who are linked to Emirates. Emirates have thrown a lifeline to Qantas, and now it is suggested a competitor will enter DUB DXB to compete with them in order to work with Qantas on Australian links!!!

Sounds highly likely. I Think greater likelihood that EI operate some DUB AUH alongside Etihad, feeding the hub like AirBerlin do from some german points ... An this is in my view also unlikely.

[racedo]

IAG have purchased shares in EI for the second time since their bid!

Ryanair will be happy as it will likely get all its investment back having taken the loss in value years ago.

Nice couple of hundred million will cheer them up.

No doubt UK Competition Commission will have no issues with IAG takeover.

[Una Due Tfc]

To be fair Racedo, IAG compete with EI on 3 routes (DUB(DUB-LHR, BHD-LHR, DUB-MAD), EI and FR compete on dozens

[Bearcat]

Race do, your such a sore loser and a moan. You've more or less got your money back. Willy and your blue team will share the spoils. It's win win for you.

[EI-A330-300]

IAG made a second offer today at 2.40 per share which was rejected by the board. First offer was 2.30.

[CabinCrewe]

when rather than if....

[racedo]

Race do, your such a sore loser and a moan. You've more or less got your money back. Willy and your blue team will share the spoils. It's win win for you.

Got no money in this so find another Wood.

[racedo]

Race do, your such a sore loser and a moan. You've more or less got your money back. Willy and your blue team will share the spoils. It's win win for you.

Dozens ?...

[Una Due Tfc]

I would suggest between DUB, ORK, SNN and LGW until recently you could have that many routes being competed on, plus you could throw LDY in as competition for BHD

[AerRyan]

I may be stupid tonight, but I have not got a clue what the past 4 posts meant. Could someone explain them to me?

How long until Iag launch a third bid? A few weeks?

[Papa2Charlie]

Interesting that IAG have come back so quickly with a second offer which is admittedly not a big move on the original offer.

I'd imagine they'll let the dust settle this week and review the situation. EI confirmed the previous guidance for 2014 numbers last week and with the full results due 24 Feb, they may take a wait and see approach.

IAG will also be busy with their year end numbers due to be released Feb 27.

[MarkD]

Just did EI128/129 (YYZ) on EI/Air Contractors. First time t/a with EI, more familiar with the A320 services ex LHR.

Chose them over AC principally for time - to ensure I could get to DUB from the Cork area before departure. The single aisle layout meant the aircraft was slow to load (in part due to limited overhead space in high density config) and lights not turned off on the night leg until over 3hrs into a 6hr flight. The IFE was great, including USB port, but a bit more variety in the kids product would have been nice. That goes double for food - I had a 3 year old with me and was fortunate that an obliging FA scrounged up some spare cheese packets. I would have acquiesced to a purchase such as the upsell adult meal but there is no such thing for kids. I also noticed no mid route passes with water and juice as offered by BA for example which to me is a miss.

I am delighted that EI is part of a long sought direct offering over the winter but they are head to head with faster, twin aisle AC763s and my mother was very impressed with the reasonably priced PE Rouge product (I refused to risk Econ given what I had heard). The poor OTP leaving DUB is also a concern - headwinds and weather/cold at YYZ will give enough grief without starting out late too. My seat mate to DUB almost certainly missed her Rome connection when by schedule she had 2 hours to make it.

Maybe if IAG take over EI the BA763s will be resurrected from Victorville to take over the 757 routes. Would give some extra cargo capacity at least.

[Una Due Tfc]

They would need to provide crews to fly them as well, which would be a minefield of union negotiations on both sides. More likely in my opinion would be ex Iberia 340s coming in, it's the same rating as the 330 for pilots and engineers

[Jamie2k9]

Just did EI128/129 (YYZ) on EI/Air Contractors. First time t/a with EI, more familiar with the A320 services ex LHR.

Chose them over AC principally for time - to ensure I could get to DUB from the Cork area before departure. The single aisle layout meant the aircraft was slow to load (in part due to limited overhead space in high density config) and lights not turned off on the night leg until over 3hrs into a 6hr flight. The IFE was great, including USB port, but a bit more variety in the kids product would have been nice. That goes double for food - I had a 3 year old with me and was fortunate that an obliging FA scrounged up some spare cheese packets. I would have acquiesced to a purchase such as the upsell adult meal but there is no such thing for kids. I also noticed no mid route passes with water and juice as offered by BA for example which to me is a miss.

I am delighted that EI is part of a long sought direct offering over the winter but they are head to head with faster, twin aisle AC763s and my mother was very impressed with the reasonably priced PE Rouge product (I refused to risk Econ given what I had heard). The poor OTP leaving DUB is also a concern - headwinds and weather/cold at YYZ will give enough grief without starting out late too. My seat mate to DUB almost certainly missed her Rome connection when by schedule she had 2 hours to make it.

Maybe if IAG take over EI the BA763s will be resurrected from Victorville to take over the 757 routes. Would give some extra cargo capacity at least.

Not sure DUB is the problem but handling in YYZ. Recent stats show turnaround takes an average of 3 hours. 2.5 if you take the average delay of 30 min departures ex DUB.

Even if it has departed DUB on time it was nearly always late returning during the summer. Average 30-40 minutes.

They would need to provide crews to fly them as well, which would be a minefield of union negotiations on both sides. More likely in my opinion would be ex Iberia 340s coming in, it's the same rating as the 330 for pilots and engineers

Not a hope, well that's if EI want to be competitive on the route.

[Skipness One Echo]

The *average* delay out of DUB is half an hour? What on Earth's going on there? Also a B757 transatlantic is a 90 minute turnaround at most, even in high density charter config.

[Una Due Tfc]

I agree the 340's are guzzlers, and you can forget trying to give one a reasonable climb rate above FL280 ish (well the a343 anyway). I don't think either the ex BA 76's or IB 340's would end up with EI in IAG, but if it was a choice between the 2, 340's would be cheaper for EI

[MarkD]

The interesting thing is that while EI are competing with AC they are also cooperating - lots of bags on my flight connecting to YVR on AC. The pax had been told via PA announcement to head directly to flight connections to make their onward flight, which likely means they will have to make a return trip to YVR to get their bags which will not have cleared customs, since they were lying on the YYZ carousel when I left.

[Algol]

If O'Leary wants to enhance his famed 'cute hoorism', now is the time to throw in an offer of 5 euro a share!
I'm not sure what the legalities are, given his ongoing appeal against a forced sale - but if he's in some kind of legal limbo at present that such a bid would be presumed viable for the present, why not? He could double his money.
Go on Micko - show us you have the balls!

[racedo]

If O'Leary wants to enhance his famed 'cute hoorism', now is the time to throw in an offer of 5 euro a share!
I'm not sure what the legalities are, given his ongoing appeal against a forced sale - but if he's in some kind of legal limbo at present that such a bid would be presumed viable for the present, why not? He could double his money.
Go on Micko - show us you have the balls!

Michael O'Leary holds no shares in EI, maybe you are confusing him with the company he works.

Why would he suggest they chuck millions away on something that will never pay back ?

FR have proven they not stupid.

[Algol]

Yeah, whatever you say. It's not his money, I agree, but he's the CEO and responsible for all the time energy and cash wasted in the futile effort to takeover EI.
They might well get their money back, more by luck than planning, and thanks to his mate Willy. But the loss of face is enormous. He failed - with a Capital F - to destroy his only home competitor.
Besides that, it has been a waste of his time and energy, a 7 year distraction that led to absolutely zilch.
If IAG wasn't interested in buying right now he'd be facing a fire sale, forced on him by the courts, and a financial wipeout.
The fact that he's got nothing to say any more just shows he's beaten, and accepts it.
Ta Ra.

[840]

The late flights from Cork and Dublin to Heathrow have been cancelled today due to anticipated weather.

It seems a bit odd as no other airlines have cancelled at Heathrow and Aer Lingus haven't cancelled any other flights in Cork or Dublin.

Maybe the word 'yet' needs to go into that last sentence though.

[Hangar6]

Dvrts to SNN due winds ORK have started , going to be a windy night