Aer Lingus - 6

[Skipness One Echo]

DUB-YYZ will be transfered over for summer 2013 and then flights will contuine year round once they restart. Its about time that DUB had year round to YYZ, its long overdue.
Is this rumour or has this been announced? YYZ is dead over the winter from Europe for the most part. What's the name of this loco?

Aer Lingus beginning next year, the planned relocation of both carriers to Terminal 2 at Heathrow to facilitate connections and following that the introduction of year-round flights between Canada and Ireland,
It will be interesting to see Aer Lingus at Air Canada at the new Heathrow T2 next year, as it's not supposed to open until 2014.
"This terminal looks like a bl**dy building sight don't ya know!??!"

[Jamie2k9]

Air Canada have said a number of times that when the loco starts there DUB route would become year round. The branding of the loco will be announced over the coming weeks.

Further info:
Air Canada to launch low-cost carrier in 2013 - thestar.com (http://www.thestar.com/business/article/1259061--air-canada-to-launch-low-cost-carrier-in-2013)

Air Transit had DUB in there winter schedules for the coming winter but it was dropped, lots of Irish in Canada now so would expect it to be well used.

[Skipness One Echo]

lots of Irish in Canada now so would expect it to be well used.
I doubt it, it's incredibly seasonal and low yield. There's a reason Air Canada use the "Three Amigos" B767 fleet to DUB, ATH and BCN in summer. You won't see those aircraft at any mainline AC station in Europe, this is a summer holiday route, peak season only. TS would have had a single weekly flight, much like GLA over the winter,that's how small the market gets. If this new loco gets off the ground, I cannot believe they would be anything more than weekly over the winter, it's just never been done in that market, in GOOD times.

This appears to be more like a replacement for the BMI STAR feed over Heathrow and as for the airline within an airline concept, well their track record is poor.

[MarkD]

EI doing a codeshare on BOS-YYZ/YOW/YUL/YHZ would be good to see - surely Jetblue can't object as they don't serve Canadian destinations plus it might keep the BOS-SNN service ticking over.

Be a pity to see TS squeezed out by "AC Jetstar" - us expats are damn glad of their fares compared to AC's rapaciousness and BA's huge fees and taxes.

[Fairdealfrank]

Quote: "Terminal 1 in Heathrow is due to be demolished in 2014, so a change was inevitable. The open question was whether it would be the new Terminal 2 or Terminal 3 where Aer Lingus ended up."

Not LHR-3, there is no common travel area/domestic arrivals facility. LHR-2, being purpose built, will have this available.

AFAIK, LHR-1's occupants are due to move to the new LHR-2, along with the remaining Star Alliance carriers still in LHR-3 (AC, SG, SK, TG, TK, etc.) and LHR-4 (ex-CO part of UA). Then LHR-1 will be demolished, re-aligned, and rebuilt as an extension to LHR-2.



Does this mean that AC and EI will use LHR as a sort of "scissor hub"?

[MarkD]

Be interesting to see if EI announce any more deals like this. The appearance of Union Flag tails in Dublin and Belfast have doubtless prompted them to at least keep options open.

[EI-A330-300]

As far as I know another an interline agreement will be announced. Its another feed that has being lost since bmi went. Not to sure if the plan is to have a codeshare in the future.

[EI-BUD]

another an interline agreement will be announced


EI-A330-300,

Are we looking at Virgin Atlantic here? Based on what I am hearing about the place re the state of the relationship between EI and BA, wouldn't now surprise me if this happened.

Is there a possibility that EI will be the provider of the 319 for VS for UK domestic flying?

[EI-A330-300]

Think its another Star Alliance carrier.

It would be great if Virgin was added to the list as the way things with EI/BA are going the codeshare won't be around to long. If its here this time next year I would be very suprised. Things are not good at all.

Can't see EI flying for VS but as posted earlier I have heard that the 2 A319 will be LGW based.

[EI-A330-300]

Star Alliance courts Aer Lingus to fill Heathrow gap left by BMI | GulfNews.com (http://gulfnews.com/business/aviation/star-alliance-courts-aer-lingus-to-fill-heathrow-gap-left-by-bmi-1.1080729)

Hope EI take advantage of it seen as BA are asking for all connections to be taken with BA flights from DUB and EI if there is no availability.

[Jamie2k9]

Its now confirmed that 1 A319 will be based at LGW and the other based at DUB. Schedules now corrected on website.

Boston will increase from 11 weekly to 2 daily from late March until mid June (then back to 13 weekly). The afternoon 14.15 flight moves to 16.15 and the morning flight will moved from 11.00 to 11.45. MCO reduces to 2 weekly but returns to 3 from mid June for peak summer. It reduced earlier this year also.

[EI-A330-300]

The BOS time change in the afternoon is a suprise but its good to see USPC being busy in the afternoon with two flights at 15.45 and one at 16.15. Does the BOS changes have anyting to do with Ethiad. There flight arrives at around 14.30 and could allow passengers connect to BOS, JFK and ORD. I know its nothing to do with the A330 on the AGP flights in summer as the times have being changed to a 06.50 departure and arrival at DUB at 14.00 before going to JFK.

[Cabincrewifly]

There's one A319 being based in Cork from March 2013

[Jack1985]

There's one A319 being based in Cork from March 2013

A quick look at the booking engine confirms this is not the case.

[Cabincrewifly]

I thought this too, was mentioned on airliners.net that there is. I'd be doubtful

[brian_dromey]

2 at BHD (along with one A320), one each at LGW and DUB would make up four, which is the number in the EI fleet for summer 2013 currently?

I would have thought that the A319 would have been abetted aircraft for Cork over the winter, rather than the summer. Most summer flights are firstly heavily loaded to traditional summer sun spots.

[Locker10a]

Here are some videos about EI for those of you interested!
The Air Hostesses on Vimeo (http://vimeo.com/channels/lookupitsaerlingus/48687147#/channels/lookupitsaerlingus/48687147)

[Mlinnie]

Just wondering how are the bookings going at BHD ?

[GAZMO]

It will be interesting to see the number on EI flights to LHR and LGW from end of this month. I have always believed EI made wrong choice moving to BHD

As I have previously posted on other threads EZY has 32K pax per month and BE 24K pax per month on average to LGW. Assuming there will be little change in which London airport EI would have to "pinch" one third of BE passengers and one quarter of EZY pax, and even with that it would only give them 16kpax per month. I am sure someone can work out the load factors on this

EZY now going a fifth flight to LGW from 20th Dec and BE will fight to maintain market share

Regarding LHR BA numbers are on the up and EI are going down, see caa stats

however I would be keen to hear from someone at EI who knows about the advanced bookings, either post here on on BFS/BHD thread

[dublinaviator]

Having seen the recent announcement by UA to launch ORD-SNN flights, I couldn't help but think Aer Lingus may have missed the boat. Not specifically in relation to the ORD-SNN route, but in their refusal thus far to expand their long-haul network and instead focus on building code shares with other airlines, all the while other carriers are expanding their long-haul network from Ireland. And this has been confirmed by a report in the Sunday Times which is reporting that Transport Minister Leo Varadkar has offered United Airlines a 5 year deal on landing charges at Dublin (no charges for first 2 years) for a new route to the US West Coast.

IMO Aer Lingus need to expand long-haul now or they will end up being sidelined by US carriers. I'm not the first person to make this observation and I won't be the last, and Aer Lingus themselves have already hinted at a possible expansion in 2013, but this needs to be brought forward if they are to capitalise on any opportunities before other airlines move in and do so.

Article: Sunday Times - Ireland - Varadkar woos United for Dublin-California flights (http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/ireland/article1142236.ece)

[EI-A330-300]

Aer Lingus themselves have already hinted at a possible expansion in 2013, but this needs to be brought forward if they are to capitalise on any opportunities before other airlines move in and do so.



Would imagine that EI mean summer 2013 expanction so if that will happen then there should be news in the short term about it. I do hope its not just the extra BOS and ORD rotations for 2013 that them ment. I hope they lease an aircraft to expant. The only problem with US carriers adding capacity is the range of long haul aircraft to do so and UA are only picking up routes EI couldn't keep as the aircraft were to big.

The 5 year deal at DUB is very intresting but I don't think it will be enough. If the route was partly subsized for 2 years but a contract for UA have to honner the service for 5 years then it could happen, but UA suprised use with SNN-ORD so anything is possible..UA must be paying very little to the DAA as IAD is on reduced charges to.

UA/EI agreement. UA sell flights form DUB-JFK,BOS,ORD,MCO operated by EU but EI don't sell flights from DUB-EWR or IAD. Any reason for this and if both teamed up for LAX/SFO I think it could benefit both carriers.

[ayroplain]

Varadkar has offered United Airlines a 5 year deal on landing charges at Dublin (no charges for first 2 years) for a new route to the US West Coast
I don't get this. Why is Varadkar not offering this deal to EI?

And what deal is he offering Ireland's largest airline to bring in more pax from other places which they are more than capable of doing with such a large fleet?

[PPRuNeUser0176]

Because Aer Lingus have made it quiet clear they will not restart west coast service.

And what deal is he offering Ireland's largest airline to bring in more pax from other places which they are more than capable of doing with such a large fleet?

because fr would want it free for the full 5 years and once they are up they will try and black mail DOT and pull aircraft out of here if they don't get for another 5 years. I am also almost sure that Aer Lingus is Irelands largerst airline now..

[racedo]

And this has been confirmed by a report in the Sunday Times which is reporting that Transport Minister Leo Varadkar has offered United Airlines a 5 year deal on landing charges at Dublin (no charges for first 2 years) for a new route to the US West Coast.

More political interference in DAA.

[The SSK]

In a new FR/EI takeover package, Ryanair has come up with a proposal to move Aer Lingus to Brussels (National Airport, not Charleroi).

Ryanair to base Aer Lingus in Brussels if bid succeeds - www.travelweekly.co.uk (http://www.travelweekly.co.uk/Articles/2012/10/05/41837/ryanair+to+base+aer+lingus+in+brussels+if+bid+succeeds.html)

[davidjohnson6]

SSK - seems utterly bizarre...

[The SSK]

davidjohnson6: SSK - seems utterly bizarre...

As I read it, EI would drop all flying on routes it shares with FR, on which there is no other competition, and even canvassing new entrants – this to satisfy the EU competition regulator. Thus they would have a lot of aircraft spare.

FR is increasing the frequency of its Brussels (Charleroi) service and promoting it as ideal for the increased traffic arising from the Irish Presidency of the EU next year – an EU-friendly move shuttling Eurocrats around at minimal expense to the taxpayer. It’s just a short step from there to providing a similar service over a wider range of EU destinations, at the same time profiting from Brussels Airlines’ chronic weakness (watch this space …)

[davidjohnson6]

SSK - I understand what MOL is trying to do, but it seems as if FR are trying to separate competition rules from credible economic reality.
The staff are heavily Ireland centric. The brand is Ireland centric. The customer base is Ireland centric. Existing operations are Ireland centric. Would the Irish Govt or EU really swallow turning EI into a Belgian-based carrier just because it saves a bit of cash on the EU budget ?

[EI-BUD]

He insisted Ryanair would maintain the Aer Lingus brand and reposition it
between Ryanair and easyJet, cutting fares on short-haul routes and revamping
business class on long haul.


The article is such a load of nonsense, the Irish government would just be jumping up with joy for the prospect of moving Aer Lingus to Brussels, how bizarre is right. Invest millions in advertising a little known brand and the suggestion that they would reposition EI between Ryanair and easyJet, this statement beggars believe. I would like to better understand this 'positioning' does mean in terms of quality or service???

So folk living in Ireland, look forward to a future of FR only on mostly all of the routes left excluding the ones that are handed to EU national airlines (deliberatly avoiding the phrase Flag Carrier).

EI - BUD

[clareview]

Reading all the posts one would think the free market had never been heard of and Aer Lingus has a God given right to exist and continue to exist. While EI is doing well at present and has a good cash reserve, how many times in the last 20 years has it been close to the wall? How many other airline mergers, take overs and closures have their been in that time? Is it not understood by experts that consolidation is the only sensible way forward. EI, as a small fringe player, is increasingly up against the likes of United on the Atlantic and BA in Europe - can it compete given its small scale?

Why not try Brussels - it has tried lots of other places such as Manchester (even basing an A330 to fly Man-Dub-USA), Gatwick, Aldergrove. None of them worked but maybe Brussels will.

Ryanair has the cash and the passenger numbers plus the scale to give flexibility.

[EI-BUD]

clareview,

I would agree that AerLingus is a fringe player, but despite their challenges they have weathered the worst of storms and are managing well comparatively speaking in the recession and in a climate of high fuel prices.

One would only hope that if Ryanair did acquire EI it would give it the investment that it needed to allow it to realise many opportunities e.g. making Dublin a real hub for flights to USA, Dubai can do it and manage a high proportion of interlining, no reason why Dublin can't do it.

My challenge to MOL would be to make the brand work at airports like Belfast, Gatwick etc, the model is perfectly suitable just doesnt have the established name in some other markets to make it through.

If MOL is planning to take EI out of LHR or any other primary airports, does that mean that they would plan to take the company down market and into secondary airports around the place. Surely this is not the way the company needs to go.

When did EI base a 330 in Man? I recall many routes to EU in the form of one stop on Dublin EU routes but never a 330 based and used to do MAN DUB USA...?

It is my view that BRU is a crazy suggestion. Focus on the core markets that is the most important for EI, Ireland and UK... If the brand can not work in a London airport such as Gatwick after the long and expensive marketing activity and the huge Irish Population who know the brand so well, it is has little chance going to another country with who uses a different language... Else they need to recognise that EI is a niche carrier with focus on its core market of the Island of Ireland.

If EI want to go into a UK market and a base they need to start small and hold on until they are well established, perhaps if FR did take over and they used Ryanair.com as another distribution channel for the brand it might help to some extent...

EI-BUD

[42psi]

When did EI base a 330 in Man? I recall many routes to EU in the form of one stop on Dublin EU routes but never a 330 based and used to do MAN DUB USA...?

Off the top of my head it was around '91 or '92, winter season, without looking it up.

Not based in MAN as such and not via Dub but SNN, it was a SNN based A/C.

Main t/round was at MAN with SNN becoming a transit stop in each direction, crewing was all ex SNN.

It was a great hit, US immigration at SNN was very popular.

Problem was that it couldn't work for the summer as the bookings ex SNN meant no space for the pax ex MAN.

[Skipness One Echo]

MOL has a personal interest in removing Aer Lingus, this is not entirely business driven, it's the last act of a play that began wih EI doing everything it could to kill FR from day one. Some of this is personal. There's a couple of good books on the history of Ryanair that are still available out on amazon or ebay.

If FR get EI, they will close it ASAP. Anyone who believes otherwise also believes in the tooth fairy.

[MCDU2]

If FR get EI, they will close it ASAP. Anyone who believes otherwise also believes in the tooth fairy.

Yep, will go something like this:-

- BA gets the LHR slots, FR gets the cash
- The net cash of 800m is deposited into the FR bank account and all other AL assets hived off to the highest bidder
- All AL employees are made redundant. They may well be offered new BRK contracts but the T&Cs will be so punitive that it wouldn't even put food on the table and so the pilots will for the most part head to the Middle East or Asia. They are the lucky ones as their licences are easily transferrable across the world. The other employees won't be so lucky and will add to the governments woes as unemployment hits a record level.
- the "10 players" don't materialise or if they do they last for the minimal 3 month period as required under EU law to provide competition on flights into Dublin. After this period FR will come back on ALL the routes to much fanfare offering "free" seats. The competitors will withdraw to their strongholds and FR will then crank up his prices as any person with a complete monopoly would do.
- FR now holding a complete monopoly over ALL traffic into and out of Ireland will meet with the DAA to present FR's new schedule of landing fees. The DAA goes to the wall as a consequence requiring the government to bail it out. FR blames T2 as being to blame and moves in there for free.
- People start considering using the ferry again to or holidaying in the more wild and windswept parts of Ireland as they can no longer afford to go abroad.

[ayroplain]

MOL has a personal interest in removing Aer Lingus, this is not entirely business driven, it's the last act of a play that began with EI doing everything it could to kill FR from day one. Some of this is personal
Nothing wrong with that. There were thousands of westerns made in Hollywood and elsewhere in which our hero was done an injustice by some evil baron and set out for revenge. Whose side were audiences on? I guess you know the answer to that.;)

[racedo]

MOL has a personal interest in removing Aer Lingus, this is not entirely business driven, it's the last act of a play that began wih EI doing everything it could to kill FR from day one. Some of this is personal. There's a couple of good books on the history of Ryanair that are still available out on amazon or ebay.

If FR get EI, they will close it ASAP. Anyone who believes otherwise also believes in the tooth fairy.

What a load of tosh......

Easier ways to kill Aer Lingus than spending hundreds of millions buying it and shutting it down. Just compete hard on every single route at low low prices and EI would be gone in 2 years.

The personal issue really is laughable as MOL had nothing to do with Ryanair when EI was trying to kill it and it was 5 years later before he became involved.

Its laughable that posters feel that a good businessman who has proved it for last 20 years would spend hundreds of millions on EI just to close and gain nothing when he can buy it and turn it into something different.

[EI-BUD]

Easier ways to kill Aer Lingus than spending hundreds of millions buying it and shutting it down


Arguable point Racedo, however, we could apply this rationale to Buzz. Why did FR acquire Buzz if they could have closed it in this way?

We could argue the toss but yes FR could make life hard for EI but price is not the only driver in the choice of airline. Yes Price is important but there is a much bigger point here, Aer Lingus can afford to be a little more expensive than FR but still attract a sustainable number of passengers to its services.

In terms of 'easier ways to kills Aer Lingus', this hasnt worked on many routes where FR perservere with low low prices, e.g. Stockholm Dublin?

Many many other markets where FR cannot penetrate EI's position to any great extent namely to slot constrained airports and for the business of interlining which onless FR has a direct service between the points, it is a market that AerLingus does well with and FR cannot touch. E.g. Stockholm Dublin Boston eg.
Also routes like Dublin Bristol, Aer Arann in the guise of EI well able to hold its own, despite great FR schedule and lower prices.

FR is a fantastic Success story but its motives for acquiring EI in my opinion are not in the interest of Ireland.

EI-BUD

[racedo]

Arguable point Racedo, however, we could apply this rationale to Buzz. Why did FR acquire Buzz if they could have closed it in this way?
.

FR bought Buzz to prevent anybody else doing so and got paid by KLM to take Buzz off its hands as it was dragging KLM down with losses.

Everybody highlightsBuzz and how bad Ryanair treated them when KLM wanted to exit the business as fast as they could because of its losses.

[Skipness One Echo]

The personal issue really is laughable as MOL had nothing to do with Ryanair when EI was trying to kill it and it was 5 years later before he became involved.

Its laughable that posters feel that a good businessman who has proved it for last 20 years would spend hundreds of millions on EI just to close and gain nothing when he can buy it and turn it into something different

It is VERY personal against Aer Lingus, and to this "great businessman", don't make me laugh. That's the whole point racedo, a good businessman wouldn't have wasted so much time effort and money trying to buy out what he would see as a poxy lower sized former national flag carrier complete with unions. Is he trying to buy CSA? No. Did he go after Malev ? No. Yet he is FIXATED on Aer Lingus.

[racedo]

It is VERY personal against Aer Lingus, and to this "great businessman", don't make me laugh. That's the whole point racedo, a good businessman wouldn't have wasted so much time effort and money trying to buy out what he would see as a poxy lower sized former national flag carrier complete with unions. Is he trying to buy CSA? No. Did he go after Malev ? No. Yet he is FIXATED on Aer Lingus.

Really so he not a great businessman....

Show me examples of people who have had 20 years of consistent growth, still profitable in the recession and haven't milked the company for personal gain at the expense of its future...

As fo wasting time and effort I think Aer Lingus board are quite thankful as he has enabled them to use him as the stick in which to beat the unions or did you not realise that.

If the Unions claims on pensions for Aer Lingus stands then the €330 million they had in net cash at the end of June will disappear quickly into the pension fund.

[EI-BUD]

FR bought Buzz to prevent anybody else doing so and got paid by KLM to take Buzz off its hands as it was dragging KLM down with losses.



Applying your logic of earlier, it would be unncessary to worry about anybody else taking over Buzz as FR could just put the squeeze on etc and put Buzz out of business.


Everybody highlightsBuzz and how bad Ryanair treated them when KLM wanted to exit the business as fast as they could because of its losses.

Perfectly logical to highlight Buzz as it is an example of Ryanair taking over a competitor (I am not aware of any other airlines that they took over). I never indicated that Buzz were badly treated, though I would suggest that everybody including the Buzz staff are perfectly entitled to their own view. How they were treated is highly irrelevant, given that I was referring to your earlier comments that there were 'easier way to kill Aer Lingus' than buying it and then closing it down


Really so he not a great businessman....




Nobody could argue that MOL is great businessman and FR under his remit has been a runaway success in terms of Profit and all financial metrics. It is clear that he is fixated on Aer Lingus absolutely true, but moreover fixated on anything that happens on home turf examples include running easyJet out of the place at significant cost, trying to obliterate Aer Arann from its own markets e.g. Cork Dublin and many more to count.

Referring back to Buzz as a highly relevant example, if the Unions in EI are unwilling to cooperate with his plans, he wil warn of his intentions to close the comany down...

[ayroplain]

poxy lower sized former national flag carrier complete with unions
:E a perfect description of EI some would say;).

if the Unions in EI are unwilling to cooperate with his plans, he will warn of his intentions to close the company down...
He won't need to close it down. The unions will see to that as history has shown that unions would rather see a workplace closed than lose their power therein. No amount of trying would ever convince me that MOL will be sitting down and discussing EI's future with siptu et al. He'll be telling them what is going to happen, take it or leave it.
All hypothetical, of course, as the takeover is very unlikely to happen.

[Skipness One Echo]

He won't need to close it down. The unions will see to that as history has shown that unions would rather see a workplace closed than lose their power therein. No amount of trying would ever convince me that MOL will be sitting down and discussing EI's future with siptu et al. He'll be telling them what is going to happen, take it or leave it.
Pendulums swing.
We've gone from Pan Am type Skygods to kids paying for their own PPL, uniform, pass and other odds and sods at the same time as being paid as contractors for a few years before making the flight to the sandpit.
The point is, MOL doesn't ever stop, he sees the line then crosses it. The end result is that the working conditions of tax paying employees are much worse than they used to be. I know some unions can be more interested in their own politics than their members, but MOL is no hero. He's a multi millionaire who got to where he is by dragging a great many others down to Earth. Sometimes that is admirable, in moderation it's indispensable. On planet Ducksy, it's because he can.

Buzz was destroyed and parted out, anyone who says "no" to MOL has the full toys out of the pram performance. I think the Irish public at least deserves the chance not to choose Aer Lingus. They're about to lose even that if these vandals get their way.

[Just a spotter]

From a purely business perspective (and attempting to remove the history and personalities from it for a minute or two); what exactly does Ryanair gain by acquiring Aer Lingus?

The reason FR puts forward is to develop the long haul business, promising fares from €99 each way. Now, to use a very Irish phrase in response to a request for directions … “I wouldn’t start from here”.

If Ryanair want to start a long haul/trans-Atlantic operation then they have sufficiently deep enough pockets and could easily start from scratch and brand it anything they wanted, it doesn’t have to Ryanair or carry any legacy (by way of example, look at Toyota, who built their initial presence in Europe & the US on low cost, developed a reputation for, at the very least being OK, and in order to "move up the food chain" and capture more lucrative markets established a new separate brand in Lexus). Ryanair would have no problem in securing aircraft, no problem in setting up a company, little difficulty in securing an AOC & routes and probably, in the current environment very little trouble in recruiting staff (or encouraging existing crew to pay for type rating training and moving across). What’s more … the big plus for this approach (as presumably seen from the perspective of an organisation that does not “do unions”) … no union involvement or legacy work practices.

Compare that to the alternative option, that of purchasing an existing operation (in this case Aer Lingus), which requires the downsizing or disposal of the short haul operation and ramping up of the long haul one all while dealing with a less than sympathetic unionised workforce (if rumours on this board are to be believed, even Aer Lingus' own management team have had problems agreeing new long haul routes & rotas with the staff representatives).


Regardless of which option was selected, as has been pointed out in this parish, the Aer Lingus brand is very Irish centric, so carries little weight outside of the “diaspora”, therefore a lot of money would have to be spent in promoting it across Europe and the US … so why not start afresh with a new brand and company that carries no legacy and with new work practices?

Which strikes you as the better, less troublesome and more “low cost/low fares” option?

IMHO, from a business perspective, the whole saga is nothing more than an attempt to remove EI from the field in DUB.

JAS

[Bearcat]

Ehhh...FR are non etops, so they'll have to go the long way to kick off for a long timeDon't expect help from EIN as M cleavers them.

[racedo]

Ehhh...FR are non etops, so they'll have to go the long way to kick off for a long timeDon't expect help from EIN as M cleavers them.

The doom merchants see no further than the end of their nose.

[Jamie2k9]

IMHO, from a business perspective, the whole saga is nothing more than an attempt to remove EI from the field in DUB.

Couldn't put it better myself.

[Bearcat]

Snide comments from a hired FR hack are nothing new here.

Bottom line is that MO'L will cleaver EIN in an instant should they take them over. He doesn't do smiling assassin tactics.

[dublinaviator]

Some interesting comments from one of United's Senior VP's:

Explaining why the Joint Venture with Aer Lingus on the Washington-Madrid route was ending, Hershel Kamen, United’s senior vice-president of alliances, regulatory and policy said:

“We do not have anti-trust immunity with Aer Lingus so we don’t have the ability, like we do with Lufthansa, or ANA [in Japan] or Air Canada, to co-ordinate pricing or co-ordinate networks....That puts a lot of strain on a joint venture because you can’t talk about the dynamics of the joint venture together because of anti-trust law. So, from a functional standpoint, it didn’t really work because we couldn’t have the conversations that we needed to have.”

On the issue of Aer Lingus joining Star Alliance, he said:

“We’ve agreed with Aer Lingus that, while they may or may not ever want to join Star, and you would have to ask them that question, we think there are benefits for both carriers.

“They are a strong partner for us in the UK and Ireland. We will likely expand that relationship.

“The benefit for us is the connections they provide throughout the UK and Ireland, especially with [UK airline] BMI leaving Star and the Lufthansa group [following its takeover by BA].

“Aer Lingus provides connections at Heathrow as well as out of Shannon and Dublin services that we couldn’t otherwise offer to destinations that we don’t serve.”

Full article: Not all plane sailing for Aer Lingus and United - The Irish Times - Fri, Oct 05, 2012 (http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/finance/2012/1005/1224324905511.html)

[ryan2000]

Hard to see Aerlingus breaking away from feeding traffic through BA at LHR even with BA returning to Dublin. It would represent a major change in strategy for them to do so. Can Star Alliance possibly offer the same range and frequency of connections particularly from Cork and Shannon neither of which serve Frankfurt?

[Mlinnie]

I fail to see any positives following this proposed takeover by Ryanair. But in the case of BA taking over BMI this was a good move as BMI were a struggling loss making airline but in the case of the Ryanair takeover Aer Lingus... Are a profitable airline who are hugely important to the economy.

[FRatSTN]

But Ryanair are much bigger and more profitable than Aer Lingus and have much more potential for significant growth.

[j636]

But Ryanair are much bigger and more profitable than Aer Lingus and have much more potential for significant growth.


That may be correct but Aer Lingus can compete with FR much better than most carriers and they have pushed them off routes from Dublin.

FR have potential for growth but no major aircraft order what will happen in 12 months?

[Aerlingus231]

But Ryanair are much bigger and more profitable than Aer Lingus and have much more potential for significant growth.

As far as I know, Aer Lingus are more profitable per passenger than Ryanair, meaning that if both carried the same number of passengers, Aer Lingus would have the greater profit. So to say that Ryanair is more profitable is twisting the truth slightly as they are a much bigger airline so of course they'll have a greater profit. :ugh:

The fact is, is that Aer Lingus is a brand that is only known in Ireland and that is its target market. It doesn't need or want to serve foreign markets like Ryanair does. It knows this market quite well and has been the only airline that was sucessfully able to compete with Ryanair. Ryanair are great at what they do, so great that we all know they would take advantage of a 90% hold on all travel off an island. You can say they'll let in competition, but just look back a couple of years ago at what happened with eazyJet and what is happening now in ORK with Wizz, you'd be a fool to think the same wouldn't happen again.

[dublinaviator]

As far as I know, Aer Lingus are more profitable per passenger than Ryanair, meaning that if both carried the same number of passengers, Aer Lingus would have the greater profit. So to say that Ryanair is more profitable is twisting the truth slightly as they are a much bigger airline so of course they'll have a greater profit.

The level of bullsh*t posted on this forum really has no bounds.

You're twisting the truth yourself with this bollix statement that Aer Lingus is more profitable than Ryanair because they make more money per passenger. The fact is Aer Lingus posted an operating loss of €17.6m last year, while Ryanair posted an after tax profit of €400m. Revenue per passenger means nothing when you're losing money after costs.

The fact is, is that Aer Lingus is a brand that is only known in Ireland and that is its target market. It doesn't need or want to serve foreign markets like Ryanair does.

Of course it does, what an ignorant statement to make. Up to recently Aer Lingus had bases in Gatwick and Washington. So they very clearly are interested in pursuing foreign markets. Even foreign bases aside, they would still market their Ireland routes in the countries they serve from here, so they have to take an interest in foreign markets. To ignore any opportunities abroad is to go against all business logic.

You can say they'll let in competition, but just look back a couple of years ago at what happened with eazyJet and what is happening now in ORK with Wizz, you'd be a fool to think the same wouldn't happen again.

If you'd check your facts, you'd find that it was Wizz Air who started a price war with Ryanair, and even head-hunted some of their management in order to do so.

[Aerlingus231]

You're twisting the truth yourself with this bollix statement that Aer Lingus is more profitable than Ryanair because they make more money per passenger. The fact is Aer Lingus posted an operating loss of €17.6m last year, while Ryanair posted an after tax profit of €400m. Revenue per passenger means nothing when you're losing money after costs.

Operating profit of €49.1 Million for 2011
Aer Lingus posts pre-tax profit €84m - The Irish Times - Tue, Feb 28, 2012 (http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2012/0228/breaking5.html)

In not twisting the figures, I'm simply using a different method of presenting them as comparing the profit of an airline that carries 9.5 million passengers a year to that of an airline that carries over 76 million is obviously going to put things out of proportion.

Of course it does, what an ignorant statement to make. Up to recently Aer Lingus had bases in Gatwick and Washington. So they very clearly are interested in pursuing foreign markets.

Firstly, the base in Washington was not really an Aerlingus base, but only one in name. The reason that was done was to occupy a long haul aircraft due to the lack of demand for long haul routes out of Ireland at the time, and was marketed as a United Airlines operation and not an Aer Lingus one. The Gatwick base was just one of Dermot Mannions mad hatter ideas to stroke his ego that went clearly wrong. They never should have opened that base IMO, even with the large Irish diaspora in London it struggled for years to get off the ground.

[Skipness One Echo]

To ignore any opportunities abroad is to go against all business logic.

Any "reasonable" opportunity. LGW was Fortress Orange with Monarch, Thomson and BA where EI brought nothing new to the party. Washington wasn't Aer Lingus at all as AerLingus231 states. Indeed the last long haul foray to Dubai didn't last either, long haul remains a relatively niche operation, which is fine so long as it stays in the black.

Aer Lingus is seens as Ireland's airline and trades succesfully as such. The record of these kind of airlines in other foreign markets is poor. Look at Air France on LHR-LAX or Lufthansa in Milan as Lufthansa Italia.

[dublinaviator]

Operating profit of €49.1 Million for 2011
Aer Lingus posts pre-tax profit €84m - The Irish Times - Tue, Feb 28, 2012

My mistake, still doesn't detract from the point that operating/net/gross profits are the only figures that matter.

Firstly, the base in Washington was not really an Aerlingus base, but only one in name. The reason that was done was to occupy a long haul aircraft due to the lack of demand for long haul routes out of Ireland at the time, and was marketed as a United Airlines operation and not an Aer Lingus one. The Gatwick base was just one of Dermot Mannions mad hatter ideas to stroke his ego that went clearly wrong. They never should have opened that base IMO, even with the large Irish diaspora in London it struggled for years to get off the ground.

The IAD base was still a base and could have been part of a wider transatlantic Joint Venture, and whether or not they should've opened a base at LGW is irrelevant, the fact is they did it. And how do you explain Aer Lingus applying for the domestic UK slots at Heathrow? I suppose that doesn't count either?

And again why shouldn't Aer Lingus be pursuing opportunities abroad? They'd be stupid not to.

[Aerlingus231]

And how do you explain Aer Lingus applying for the domestic UK slots at Heathrow? I suppose that doesn't count either?

Very simply, get the slots, try it for 6 months, make a loss, say it isn't a viable route, and then use those slots for their core market - Ireland.

[ryan2000]

Ryanair talking to foreign carriers about competing with them on routes that Aerlingus are now on reminds me of the saying "Come into my parlour said the spider to the fly". These carriers have far less brand recognition in Ireland than Aerlingus and are simply not equipped to compete with Ryanair on a sustainable basis. If Ryanair lower fares and/or increase frequencies which they are perfectly entitled to do these carriers will quickly withdraw from the Irish market and we'll be back to the defacto monopoly which existed at Irish airports up to the mid 1980's.

The only serious competition to Ryanair will be the Cross Channel Ferries!

[GAZMO]

Have to agree

No airline will touch these routes
As previously posted if they do arrive FR after a few months will copy routes, cheap fares, lost making and drive the competition away

We have seen it before

[floss689]

Varadkar sceptical on Ryanair proposals - The Irish Times - Fri, Oct 12, 2012 (http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/finance/2012/1012/1224325186938.html)

[PPRuNeUser0176]

Anybody have any idea if we can expect a new route or two from EI next summer. They tend to add a few most summers.

[Mlinnie]

Hopefully they will add a few. I'd love to see them reinstate Sofia would there be demand for it ? Would be great to see Helsinki and Athens continued throughout Winter. Menorca maybe ?? Maybe some new EIR routes like Inverness, Dundee, Carlisle & Newquay from Dublin. Maybe a few European city routes from BHD ?

[EI-A330-300]

Ryanair offer aircraft and crew to EI if industrial action goes ahead over the next few weeks. I do agree with FR/EI's position on this as its not the airlines fault whats after happening.

Ryanair offers to aid Aer Lingus | Irish Examiner (http://www.irishexaminer.com/business/ryanair-offers-to-aid-aer-lingus-212144.html)

[racedo]

Poor old Racedo is bravely ploughing a lonely furrow for Ryanair on here. His position lacks a certain consistency however. Surely given his belief in the obvious superiority of ryanair, it'd be better for the nation if indeed the popular vision of the outcome of a successful bid did come to pass and ryanair did remove EI from the field.
Over to you racedo, do tell us why you deny FR would shut EI in jig time when you obviously believe that the travelling public would benefit enormously from being offered no choice other than FR? You might also like to explain to us why micko, the former arch-disciple of competition, now feels the Irish public would benefit from a monopoly?

Given your premis is that Ryanair would close down Aer Lingus is false from the start then why bother with the rest of the diatribe.

[CallBell]

Ryanair offer aircraft and crew to EI if industrial action goes ahead over the next few weeks. I do agree with FR/EI's position on this as its not the airlines fault whats after happening.

Ryanair offers to aid Aer Lingus | Irish Examiner


What use is the offer of crew and aircraft if its not the flight deck and cabin crew in EI that are on strike? This is just another publicity stunt by FR. Unless they are trying to find use for the aircraft they ground each winter?;)

[racedo]

What use is the offer of crew and aircraft if its not the flight deck and cabin crew in EI that are on strike? This is just another publicity stunt by FR.

Nope because EI Management are under no illusions about whether cabin crew /pilots and others may pass the pickets.

Having an alternate irrespective of whether its used or not reduces potential impact and cost of strike.

[KNT544]

The last EI from BFS

https://dl.dropbox.com/u/99210066/last%20EI%20from%20BFS.jpg

[Skipness One Echo]

Given your premis is that Ryanair would close down Aer Lingus is false
Not "unlikely to be true" but in your words "false". Good Heavens above, it's almost as if you state this with some form of insider knowledge. Jings, crivvens and help ma boab racedo it's giving some people the mad impression you're on the payroll. Who WOULD have thought such a thing?

[racedo]

Not "unlikely to be true" but in your words "false". Good Heavens above, it's almost as if you state this with some form of insider knowledge. Jings, crivvens and help ma boab racedo it's giving some people the mad impression you're on the payroll. Who WOULD have thought such a thing?

Nope

I see spending €500m to shut them down as not a likely event because there is no benefit to FR in doing so.

Now if MO'L was an ego owning 100% of FR and trying to get even it would be understandable but he doesn't and he isn't. Shareholders would rightly question spending €500m for nothing.

Expanding the TA model as outlined previously using FR as a feeder makes a lot more financial sense.

[EI-BUD]

Expanding the TA model as outlined previously using FR as a feeder makes a
lot more financial sense.




There are monumental tasks to overcome from a MOL perspective. Firstly the huge hole in the deficit is one such task, not to mention unions.

Yesterday and Friday AerLingus flew a couple of their European routes via Dublin. FAO and ALC for e.g.

As a result take yesterday, BFS DUB ALC was by a 319; Belfast crew took the plane with all 28 passengers to DUB (not surprising load so light as it was the last one), the Belfast Crew were sent by taxi back to Belfast and the Dublin crew came on and took the plane to ALC and then Back to BFS.
These crew had to be taken to DUB last night by taxi, so since Friday probably 5 taxis approx.

The reason for this crew change is due to Union agreement, where BFS or LGW crews cannot operate out of DUB.. Amazing. . .

MOL would not flex on the issue of unions and as a result this fact alone would bring the company to its knees. When Dublin airport went out on strike in support of FR baggage handlers many years ago, guess which airlines was flying.. Ryanair, so that should be enough to show lack of tolerance for Union agenda, hence the issues. In my view.

On a separate and unrelated note, BHD flights launced this A.M. first flights into BHD almost full. So where school term of not, there is good awareness of the brand on the route. Also BAs 1st flight mon- fri from BHD to LHR note until 0750, this should serve EI very well in its first season...

EI-BUD

[EI-A330-300]

Expanding the TA model as outlined previously using FR as a feeder makes a lot more financial sense.



Ture but there is very few places that FR fly from DUB where EI don't.

[racedo]

There are monumental tasks to overcome from a MOL perspective. Firstly the huge hole in the deficit is one such task, not to mention unions.


Aer Lingus pumped €100 million as a one off into pension fund on floatation, now they back for more.

If pension fund wins the €300 million it wants then pretty much no need to worry about EI future as there isn't one because you can pretty much guarantee they will be back again.

EI owned only by its shareholders one of whom with 29% will be voting against this as may other holders as well if realising the voting away its cash.

In relation to Unions, the adding of costs as you describe, is supposedly protecting jobs if listening to the Union, but ensuring loads of additional costs are added in to make reinvesting harder.

[Bearcat]

Yawn, the usual expect hired hack diatribe, re no future for EIN. Just like your boss....bluff and bluster.

2 big problems do sit with EIN....the pension fund mess and a hostile share holder sitting on de facto 30% of stock. These are causing huge problems with the stock going forward irrespective of bumper loads qx3.

[racedo]

Yawn, the usual expect hired hack diatribe, re no future for EIN. Just like your boss....bluff and bluster.

2 big problems do sit with EIN....the pension fund mess and a hostile share holder sitting on de facto 30% of stock. These are causing huge problems with the stock going forward irrespective of bumper loads qx3.

Normal diatribe that somehow Ryanair is all the cause of Aer Lingus woes rather than its own performance.

Issue with the stock going forward is the Unions willing to strike or threaten strike when ever they wish.

If Aer Lingus stock was so undervalued then its stock price would be well above the €1.04 it finished at on Friday, in fact well above the €1.30 of the last bid, the market doesn't think it is................not a shock really.

[ayroplain]

As a result take yesterday, BFS DUB ALC was by a 319; Belfast crew took the plane with all 28 passengers to DUB (not surprising load so light as it was the last one), the Belfast Crew were sent by taxi back to Belfast and the Dublin crew came on and took the plane to ALC and then Back to BFS.
These crew had to be taken to DUB last night by taxi, so since Friday probably 5 taxis approx.
The reason for this crew change is due to Union agreement, where BFS or LGW crews cannot operate out of DUB.. Amazing. . .
Unbelievable. The union is dictating to the airline which of their pilots are allowed to fly their planes. Amazing is not quite the appropriate word..appalling, more like. Worse still is that the airline, instead of putting these idiots in their place, actually goes along with it.

[Skipness One Echo]

ayroplain the point is that LGW and BFS crews were hired on inferior terms and conditions to DUB pilots. Unless they were prevented from flying from DUB, all DUB terms and conditions would be eroded over time down to the inferior levels. Did you know that?

[ayroplain]

Yes, Skipness, I'm aware of the different terms and conditions but it is just another example of the old-fashioned, warped and senseless thinking that unions indulge in and that has plagued EI forever.

[dublinaviator]

This guy is either an idiot or a really good troll, I'm not sure which...

[EI-BUD]

gives micko huge political clout


I could agree more. Of course he is an amazingly astute businessman, but his ambition to control the DAA and dictate terms to them must be his single biggest ambition. I for one certainly hope that this particular scenario ever pans out. If FR take over EI, DUB will be another STN, one serious operator and a mini sprinkling of a few others. . .

EI-BUD

[racedo]

Of course there is benefit to FR in closing EI. It gives them almost total control over access to Ireland, it's passengers and airports. In turn this gives micko huge political clout. Which is what this is all about, an egotistical power trip to have the loudest voice in his own backyard. Ultimately he's a small town man, he can't be the biggest fish in the EU pond, but he can certainly be that in Ireland. There'll be no end to the fawning then, as only the Irish can revere the local bigwig.


Ryanair biggest airline in Hungary, Lithuania, Spain and Slovakia; close second in Belgium, Ireland and Italy | anna.aero (http://www.anna.aero/2012/10/17/ryanair-1st-in-spain-hungary-slovakia/)

Why would he want to be the local bigwig in a country with a population of 4.6 Million :rolleyes:

[Jack1985]

Why would he want to be the local bigwig in a country with a population of 4.6 Million


Is that a serious statement? My own view is shared by the majority of Ryanair shareholders, and I know racedo you're probably going to refrain from digging at your own CEO for obvious reasons. Only Michael O'Leary and his ego have led to the 3 takeover attempts and the 29.4% shareholding in Aer Lingus and not Ryanair's shareholders. For some reason he wants Aer Lingus and we will probably never know what that reason is, the only massive one I can think of worth value is the 7 aircraft in the Long Haul fleet and slots at Heathrow and others Aer Lingus hold. He has wasted millions of Ryanair's cash in Aer Lingus for no benefit to Ryanair or its shareholders and the only way he can get this money back is by buying Aer Lingus shutting it down or merging it and selling of the assets. Advantage of all this? he's the main airline in the state and the competition Ryanair love to talk about bringing in e.g. BA, Virgin etc.. would be running because not one company with commercial sense would take him on after previous attempts by many e.g. easyJet, Go etc. O'Leary then leaves with an unblemished and hugely successful career at Europe's largest carrier and his ego unchanged.. oh and the massive paycheck as well.

[racedo]

My own view is shared by the majority of Ryanair shareholders,

Tell you what.........provide the evidence for that and will read the rest of the diatribe.

[KNT544]

My own view is shared by the majority of Ryanair shareholders, Tell you what.........provide the evidence for that and will read the rest of the diatribe.

+1
(Plus spaces)

[Jack1985]

Tell you what.........provide the evidence for that and will read the rest of the diatribe.

Back at you, where's the evidence of shareholders support of all 3 of Ryanair's take-over attempts on Aer Lingus?

The initial shareholdings in Aer Lingus were accepted in 2006, that's changed quite a bit since the loss Ryanair has incurred because of that investment.

“At the time of the 2006 offer, Aer Lingus represented in excess of 25 per cent of Ryanair's gross assets and, accordingly, the transaction would have required Ryanair shareholder approval. Since 2006, Ryanair has increased in size, while the market value of Aer Lingus has declined, and accordingly this offer is not a "significant transaction" under the Listing Rules and will not require Ryanair shareholder approval,” said Ryanair. The Sunday Business Post (http://www.businesspost.ie/#!story/Home/News/Eight+reasons+why+Ryanair+is+making+another+bid+for+Aer+Ling us/id/19410615-5218-4fe0-be4a-2bedc4743282)

Because it wouldn't be approved by the shareholders if it had to be.

[racedo]

Back at you, where's the evidence of shareholders support of all 3 of Ryanair's take-over attempts on Aer Lingus?

The initial shareholdings in Aer Lingus were accepted in 2006, that's changed quite a bit since the loss Ryanair has incurred because of that investment.

“At the time of the 2006 offer, Aer Lingus represented in excess of 25 per cent of Ryanair's gross assets and, accordingly, the transaction would have required Ryanair shareholder approval. Since 2006, Ryanair has increased in size, while the market value of Aer Lingus has declined, and accordingly this offer is not a "significant transaction" under the Listing Rules and will not require Ryanair shareholder approval,” said Ryanair. The Sunday Business Post (http://www.businesspost.ie/#%21story/Home/News/Eight+reasons+why+Ryanair+is+making+another+bid+for+Aer+Ling us/id/19410615-5218-4fe0-be4a-2bedc4743282)

Because it wouldn't be approved by the shareholders if it had to be.

Again I ask for evidence as you have provided NONE.

Claiming "it won't be approved by shareholders" when it was never put to shareholders nor have any of them publicly or privately briefed against it shows you forming a deluded opinion based on no facts. In effect you again have provided no evidence.

If major shareholders disapprove of anything the management of a company is doing they can
1.) tell the company publicly
2.) vote or abstain against the board at AGM
3.) call and EGM to remove board
4.) brief the press privately to ensure it becomes public, adding pressure on the company board.

As NONE of these have happened at Ryanair I think its safe to conclude you know nowt.

[PPRuNeUser0176]

Claiming "it won't be approved by shareholders" when it was never put to shareholders nor have any of them publicly or privately briefed against it shows you forming a deluded opinion based on no facts. In effect you again have provided no evidence.


The Goverment and Etihad won't approve the takeover and don't start saying that it will be the EU/IMF deciding.

[racedo]

The Goverment and Etihad won't approve the takeover and don't start saying that it will be the EU/IMF deciding. Ethihad have 1/10 of the shareholding of Ryanair yet people complain Ryanair is able to influence Aer Lingus policy but seems like you are saying Ethihad can do it more !!!

Irish Govt needs the cash and will sell if price is right that is unless Denis O'Brien tells them not to. Given the Irish tribunals proved Mr O'Brien paid off party members of the current govt in the 1990's to gain a Telecom license then anything is possible.

Course Mr O'Brien previously worked for Tony Ryan who parted company with him and employed Michael O'Leary afterwards.

Oh and Irish Govt can decide not to sell its shareholding but if EU approve then all is needed is 50.000001% for a takeover.

[PPRuNeUser0176]

Ethihad have 1/10 of the shareholding of Ryanair yet people complain Ryanair is able to influence Aer Lingus policy but seems like you are saying Ethihad can do it more !!!

Irish Govt needs the cash and will sell if price is right that is unless Denis O'Brien tells them not to. Given the Irish tribunals proved Mr O'Brien paid off party members of the current govt in the 1990's to gain a Telecom license then anything is possible.

Course Mr O'Brien previously worked for Tony Ryan who parted company with him and employed Michael O'Leary afterwards.

Oh and Irish Govt can decide not to sell its shareholding but if EU approve then all is needed is 50.000001% for a takeover.

We will have to wait and see but I can gaurantee you that FR won't take over EI and thats all I'm going to say on the matter but you can keep dreaming if you want. As Jack 1985 and Jamie2k9 posted here and on Dublin threat FR only want the T/A services and it dosn't take the birghtest person to realise this. By the way whats you job in Ryanair?

[Hangar6]

FR have no interest in taking over EI they have an exit strategy ready to role and might just keep the longhaul planes , but as stated by MOL , they will be moved to Belgium. Of course no one believes a word MOL says , a man wose relationship with the truth is infrequent tosay the least .

[j636]

Aer Lingus unions plan two-hour strike - RT News (http://www.rte.ie/news/2012/1030/aer-lingus-unions-meeting.html)

16 November 10.00-12.00 strike. Can't see much impact on passengers as there will only be a handful of flights at those times.

[ayroplain]

Can't see much impact on passengers as there will only be a handful of flights at those times.
There should be at least 15 (taking into account arrivals and departures),including two T/A not to mention the knock-on effect. I'll bet all those pax will be awfully pleased with the fact that they're expendable and being sacrificed "for the cause".

[Noxegon]

I've to go to London the Monday after that.

I guess I'm going to book BA for safety.

[dublinaviator]

I can gaurantee you that FR won't take over EI

No you can't so stop waffling. Given the EC's recent decision to delay the probe further into February, it's actually more likely now than ever that Ryanair will be given approval to takeover Aer Lingus.

[j636]

No you can't so stop waffling. Given the EC's recent decision to delay the probe further into February, it's actually more likely now than ever that Ryanair will be given approval to takeover Aer Lingus

approval may be given but it dosn't mean a takeover will happen...

[racedo]

approval may be given but it dosn't mean a takeover will happen...

True

Given that many people are sitting on losses and not likely to recover,

option 1 - take a price 30% above existing share price or

option 2 - hold out assuming that at some day way way into the future the share price may equal what they bought it, assumming pension fund doesn't force them into bankruptcy

Only just over 20% of shares needs to be bought by Ryanair to gain control.

[Hangar6]

Finance & Stock Market News (http://www.lse.co.uk/finance-news.asp)



EU to oppose Ryanair, Aer Lingus deal - source (http://www.lse.co.uk/FinanceNews.asp?ArticleCode=7yarjd1sk487ywp&ArticleHeadline=EU_to_oppose_Ryanair_Aer_Lingus_deal__source )

Mon, 5th Nov 2012 17:00


BRUSSELS, Nov 5 (Reuters) - EU antitrust regulators plan to object to Ryanair's proposed takeo

ver of rival Aer Lingus because the Irish budget airline has not offered sufficient concessions, a person familiar with the matter said on Monday.

'A statement of objections is likely,' said the person, who declined to be named because of the sensitivity of the matter.

A statement of objections is a confidential document issued by the European Commission that sets out in detail the concerns it has about a proposed merger or takeover deal.

The person said the objections were likely to be sent to Ryanair in the coming week or two.

The source said the European Commission had not sought feedback from consumers or competing airlines on the concessions offered by Ryanair, indicating that it was unconvinced by the airline's arguments.

[Aerlingus231]

:D :D :D :D
They had us scared for a sec. Hope these rumours can be confirmed in the coming weeks.

[Hangar6]

The source said the European Commission had not sought feedback from consumers or competing airlines on the concessions offered by Ryanair, indicating that it was unconvinced by the airline's arguments.


I love the last bit as above, they didnt believe a word he said and didnt have to ask anyone else for an opinion, they must have read Justice Kelly summary from Supreme Court ruling against MOL, funny how no one believes a word he says :):):)

[Meccano]

If Aer Lingus stock was so undervalued then its stock price would be well above the €1.04 it finished at on Friday, in fact well above the €1.30 of the last bid, the market doesn't think it is................not a shock really.

If 'The Market' believed the FR bid was certain to succeed that share price would be pegged at 1.30 since the bid announcement.
Seems the market doesn't believe it either.

[EI-A330-300]

1 - 9 months of 2012 = 86.5 million profit 29.7% ahead of 2011
2 - Strong Q3 with operating profit of 90.9 million (business traveling dropped with Olampics)
3 - Passengers in Q3 up 2%
4 - Yield per passenger up 7.2% with Long Haul up 11.5%
5 - Forword bookings as of 30 Sep are up on 2011
6 - Greenfield targets achived more than expected
7 - LHR-EDI decision will be made on 15 November
8 - Regional growth at Dublin is restricted due to lack of bussing gates

[mart901]

I really can't see MOL having any soft spot for EI or its unionised workforce somehow?

[Jack1985]

Just hearing from a source in Aer Lingus that we should be hearing about an Aer Lingus/El Al Israel Airlines codeshare shortly.

[dublinaviator]

According to Flightglobal magazine, Aer Lingus expects a decision next week on it's bid for slots at Heathrow to operate between Edinburgh and London-Heathrow.

Below is the full article from Flightglobal's subscription service:

"Aer Lingus has revealed further details of its plan to launch domestic UK services from London Heathrow airport to Edinburgh in order to break British Airways' monopoly on the route.

Some 14 Heathrow slots are being relinquished by International Airlines Group, BA's parent company, as a pre-condition for its takeover of BMI. Seven of the slots have been ringfenced for Edinburgh or Aberdeen.

So far, Virgin is the only other bidder for the Edinburgh slots, though Aer Lingus remains confident that it can secure the rights to the route.

The Irish flag carrier says if it is successful then the route - its first on the UK mainland - will launch for the summer 2013 season. It plans to deploy a 174-seat Airbus A320 to link the two capital cities."

And here's another article from TravelWeekly: Aer Lingus expects decision soon on UK domestic service - www.travelweekly.co.uk (http://www.travelweekly.co.uk/Articles/2012/11/07/42204/aer+lingus+expects+decision+soon+on+uk+domestic+service.html )


I'd be very surprised if there wasn't some behind-the-scenes discussions going on between Aer Lingus and BA that would allow BA to feed passengers onto it's long-haul flights from Scotland indirectly through a code share with Aer Lingus.

Either way, if Aer Lingus obtain these slots they're gonna need a long-haul partner to fill 6 flights a day. So if not BA, then maybe if Virgin Atlantic lose out to Aer Lingus we could see some form of a tie-up between the 2 carriers.

[Mlinnie]

A codeshare with EI AI Israel Airlines ??? So could we see them coming to Dublin ??
Also with all these new codeshares with Air Canada, Etihad, Air Berlin, EI AI (last 2 only rumors) and EI looking to operate LHR-EDI and EI moving to BHD.
Do you think this could all be to Do with the FR takeover ??? Could All of these new codeshares/base changes make it harder for FR to try and takeover EI ??

[Aerlingus231]

I'd say it's more likely they'd connect with each other at LHR than have El Al come do DUB.

[dublinaviator]

Also with all these new codeshares with Air Canada, Etihad, Air Berlin, EI AI (last 2 only rumors) and EI looking to operate LHR-EDI and EI moving to BHD.
Do you think this could all be to Do with the FR takeover ??? Could All of these new codeshares/base changes make it harder for FR to try and takeover EI ??

I think the additional code shares are more to do with securing feeder traffic on EI's LHR-DUB flights. Given BA's entry onto the market, EI can no longer rely on feeder traffic from BA long-haul, and as such must secure traffic from other carriers at LHR.

[racedo]

I think the additional code shares are more to do with securing feeder traffic on EI's LHR-DUB flights. Given BA's entry onto the market, EI can no longer rely on feeder traffic from BA long-haul, and as such must secure traffic from other carriers at LHR.

Sounds plausible explanation.

[heidelberg]

Good to see the Aer Lingus two hours strike for next Monday called off.
Dublin, Shannon and Cork airports would have been closed if the strike went ahead.
The dispute is over a multi million shortfall in the pension pot.

[dublinaviator]

Good to see the Aer Lingus two hours strike for next Monday called off.
Dublin, Shannon and Cork airports would have been closed if the strike went ahead.
The dispute is over a multi million shortfall in the pension pot.

Oh really? I thought they were just havin the craic...

[Angry Rebel]

And why would the airports be closed? Aer Lingus account for about 50% of traffic at both Cork and Dublin so why would they close?! :ugh:

[islandhopper]

Angry Rebel

Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: on the road...
Posts: 122
And why would the airports be closed? Aer Lingus account for about 50% of traffic at both Cork and Dublin so why would they close?!


Because its not just Aer Lingus staff ( and not all off them) but it is the DAA staff pension as well - no airport staff = no airport open

[EI-A330-300]

Because its not just Aer Lingus staff ( and not all off them) but it is the DAA staff pension as well - no airport staff = no airport open

You need to do your homework, this strile has noting to do with DAA staff over the pension issue. Its only Aer Lingus. Both companys have the problem with pensions but as usual Aer Lingus staff go on strike.

[DollarBill]

You need to do your homework, this strile has noting to do with DAA staff over the pension issue. Its only Aer Lingus. Both company's have the problem with pensions but as usual Aer Lingus staff go on strike.

The reason being that the DAA agree a settlement with the pension fund. EI added conditions to their help, they want their staff to take an unspecified payfreeze and increase productivity. Which pretty much much means EI want their staff to inject their own work/money cash into the fund. They also refused to go to the Labour Court for arbitration on the matter.

[Jamie2k9]

Aer Lingus have lost out on LHR-EDI slots, not know who got them but expected to be Virgin.

Aer Lingus second in race for Heathrow slots - The Irish Times - Sat, Nov 17, 2012 (http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/finance/2012/1117/1224326702316.html)

[CCR]

Good news so for existing Aer Lingus bases in Dublin, Cork, Belfast and Shannon..

On future transatlantic services from Dublin, would have thought that if EI reintroduced a SFO-DUB route with an onward service to Bangalore, it could possibly be quite successful linking up Silicon Valley with Silicon Isle and on to the global IT hub in Asia, Bangalore, India..just a thought.

[Jamie2k9]

SAS and Aer Lingus Sign Interline Agreement - ITTN | Irish Travel Trade News Magazine (http://www.ittn.ie/bulletins/sas-and-aer-lingus-sign-interline-agreement/#.UKzxUB63kdg.twitter)

Seem to be moving towords Star Alliance. Air Canada, SAS and United.

[Airbus321-200]

More star alliance interline agreements ahead i'd say. Only a matter of time before they join Star.

[dublinaviator]

Aer Lingus won't be joining Star Alliance. The interline agreement only applies to flights between Ireland and the UK. So for SAS, they get additional traffic from BHD/ORK/SNN through LHR, while Aer Lingus are able to further shore up their feed to/from LHR.

[dublinaviator]

Has anyone noticed hints recently from Christoph Mueller that Aer Lingus may be looking at potential takeover targets? Below is a quote from Mueller in a recent article on Aviation Week magazine (Nov 21 2012) (http://www.aviationweek.com/Article.aspx?id=/article-xml/avd_11_21_2012_p01-02-519533.xml):

it [Aer Lingus] wants to participate actively in industry consolidation, but as an investor, not as a takeover target.

And here is another comment from Mueller in the Irish Independent (Nov 20 2012) (http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/aer-lingus-loses-bid-for-heathrow-slots-to-virgin-3300412.html):

Aer Lingus chief executive Christoph Mueller recently said that the airline would have difficulty growing organically and would consider small asset purchases in order to help it expand.

Given the state of SAS lately, you'd wonder are they looking at them as a potential target.

[CCR]

That would truly be an audacious move. You can pick an airline up at rockbottom prices in the current economic climate in Europe.
For Aer Lingus to expand into mainland europe, taking over a european airline would catapult it into the big league like Ryanair.
Personally, I thought they should have bid for BMI but too late for that now.
Closer to home, possibly they are looking at Cityjet to expand in London and Paris and also to feed into their main hub in Dublin like Aer Lingus Regional.
Time will tell.

[MCDU2]

Christoph has said a lot of interesting things recently. He seems worried that once FR are kicked into touch that the government will sell off their shares and the company will be at the mercy of the hedge funds. This could conceivably allow an asset stripper to come in and tear it apart. To be fair no different really to what FR would have done.

So the strategy appears to be to get rid off cash and make the company a much less attractive buy out proposition.

I wonder whether Aer Arann will come into the fold. Our ex chief pilot is on secondment over there so watch this space.

[DublinPole]

But any asset stripper could come in, if you sell out to another big airline or flag carrier, they may not be interested in running short haul European flights from Ireland, but they may be interested in long haul flights, long haul aircraft and slots that a takeover would give them. Flag carriers could come in and use such aircraft on non Irish routes.

Ryanair taking over wouldn't be ideal either, but I can't imagine for one moment they'd dump long haul flights from Ireland, I'd say part of the reason they want to take over AL is so they can get into that business. But for the short haul passenger it wouldn't be good news.

I don't think anything really is ideal and both sets have flaws.

[akerosid]

"I wonder whether Aer Arann will come into the fold. Our ex chief pilot is on secondment over there so watch this space."

I had heard this; I wonder will RE become the training ground for new EI pilots, flowing through as commuter pilots in the US do, to their mainline partner carriers?

I thought RE was pretty much in the fold, in the sense that all acft now carry EI Regional titles and the new ATR72-600s, delivery of which will start this year, will also do so. I can see this continuing, with new regional UK routes being added.

Additionally, IB's recently announced plans to ground 20 short haul acft may offer opportunities, because some, if not most, of these will be A319s (the source of the currently operated 319s); the 319's lower capacity will allow EI to increase frequencies on some routes.

[dublinaviator]

I doubt Aer Arann is a target for Aer Lingus, as it would offer no benefit in terms of expansion given that Aer Arann already operate solely under the Aer Lingus Regional brand. They also have a lower cost base than Aer Lingus, and Christoph Mueller himself has pointed out that when a larger airline acquires a smaller airline, the smaller airline will inevitably assume the higher cost base of the larger airline, which in Aer Arann's case could effect the viability of the Aer Lingus Regional operation.

If, as Christoph Mueller says, Aer Lingus wants to "consider small asset purchases in order to help it expand", it would have to look to the continent.

[Captain Planet]

the smaller airline will inevitably assume the higher cost base of the larger airline, which in Aer Arann's case could effect the viability of the Aer Lingus Regional operation.

I wouldn't agree. If EI were to absorb RE, it would be on the old EI Commuter terms as regards an EIR pay scale versus the mainline pay scale with an option of moving to the RHS of the 320 after a period of time and also depending on the standard sim + interview.

However, this is my opinion but this was the case back in the EI Commuter days.

CP.

[Jamie2k9]

Christoph has said a lot of interesting things recently. He seems worried that once FR are kicked into touch that the government will sell off their shares and the company will be at the mercy of the hedge funds. This could conceivably allow an asset stripper to come in and tear it apart. To be fair no different really to what FR would have done.


Agree with most of the post but he is more concered who FR will sell to than the Goverment.

[Just a spotter]

OK, this is a little off topic and possibly a bit on the crazy side but ...

EI's cash pile is circa €700m, with debt level of about €550m which is being reduced. Some numbers being reported as bandied about in the banking markets from 2011 for the 'value' of the Singapore stake in VS are in the order $500m and the 2012 estimate could be lower (some suggestion they are keen to exit the venture). So the price should be within the realms of EI's financing ability (i.e. borrowing).

So, a question for a assembled EI watchers brains trust .... if you were in Herr Mueller's position, would you consider an offer if Delta don't bite?

JAS

[dublinaviator]

So, a question for a assembled EI watchers brains trust .... if you were in Herr Mueller's position, would you consider an offer if Delta don't bite?

No because it would be of no benefit to Aer Lingus (or Virgin for that matter), other than to provide a marginal dividend to the balance sheet. Should Aer Lingus decide to invest it's capital reserves, it'll do so with the aim of allowing the airline to expand.

[akerosid]

There was an article today in the Times, to the effect that if FR walks away from EI, EY is ready to step in. EY, incidentally, is also about to buy a significant shareholding in Jet Airways of India.

I mention this because EY, as an investor, will presumably be very interested in encouraging EY to expand. What about the possibility of joint fleet purchasing and other economies of scale by all four airlines under the EY umbrella (EY, 9W, AB, EI); together this carriers would have a sizeable requirement for A320NEO/737MAX and A350/787 aircraft.

AB has a bit of a mish-mash of a fleet, with both A320s and 737s. I wonder if EY might "encourage" AB to co-operate closely with EI, even encourage joint management of the two, under EI. Just throwing it out there ...

[racedo]

EI's cash pile is circa €700m, with debt level of about €550m which is being reduced.

Or in real terms supposedly €150 m in cash going into a winter in the midst of a recession and they lose money in Winter.

Hmmm

[waffler]

I was wondering when you would slip your knife in Racedo.
As you know well most of the loans were used to buy aircraft which still have a value.
Back to you.

[racedo]

I was wondering when you would slip your knife in Racedo.
As you know well most of the loans were used to buy aircraft which still have a value.
Back to you

So you support the idea that Aer Lingus should buy a majority share in Virgin or disagree that Aer Lingus lose money in the winter ?

Quite a bit of the loans were used on failed bases, paying off people to re-employ them and settling employees tax debts.

[curser]

Always the same negativity racedo, post after post...year after year...its just so terribly sad. I suspect you are being deliberately obtuse in answering Waffler, who points out quite clearly that Aer Lingus's financial position is quite remarkably sound especially given the back drop of economy and local government subsidised competition. Admittedly money was wasted when a ryan air accountant popped in to show all "how it's done" but much of what you contend has cultivated a very lean machine. A machine so lean that they are making profit! Lets stick to the facts; Aer Lingus makes money. Aer Lingus competes in its market and wins. MOL wants to buy it for expressly those reasons. Hope you slept well, now pop a downer and retort...you know you're gonna!
ps. most carriers lose money over the winter racedo its the nature of the beast..suppose they could just ground the fleet on some remote airstrip for the duration but that doesn't do much for connectivity for Ireland which is kind of the point of having an air fleet but suspect that'll go over your head.

[mart901]

The business of FR grounding it's fleet over winter is being made out to be the only sensible and viable way to run an airline. Apart from the above mentioned connectivity issues just how brand damaging is it? To me it's more a drastic way to deal with having ordered far to many aircraft for the recession hit times we live in.

[MCDU2]

The business of FR grounding it's fleet over winter is being made out to be the only sensible and viable way to run an airline.

Not necessarily. He gets away with it because most of his workers are contractors who don't get paid unless they are flying. He also screws his suppliers down so that there is no fixed costs element of their contracts.

Other airlines mitigate the winter months by wet leasing. Others make stonking profits in the summer to offset lower cashflows during winter.

Most businesses have a seasonal aspect to them. Aviation is no different.

FR was lucky enough to have gotten its aircraft at heavily discounted rates. Therefore having the aircraft parked up is not so much of an issue for him, whereas it would be for a national full service airline. He will never get these discounted rates again from Boeing or Airbus. His maintenance costs are starting to rise with his fleet age and he is having to face the reality that he will start incurring significant and unavoidable costs unless he ponies up and buys some new airframes at the going rates.

[dublinaviator]

Aer Lingus are to announce in the next 24 hours that they are to commence short-haul flights from next March on behalf of another airline:

The Sunday Business Post - News - Aer Lingus expected to announce short-haul tie-up (http://www.businesspost.ie/#!story/Home/News/Aer+Lingus+expected+to+announce+short-haul+tie-up/id/19410615-5218-50bd-f79d-ba2594956139)

It has to be Virgin Atlantic...

[GAZMO]

they have been talking to VS for some time re connections via LGW and LHR

[ayroplain]

So, what routes do you think EI will drop to use (how many of?) their 320's on Virgin's behalf?

[dublinaviator]

So, what routes do you think EI will drop to use (how many of?) their 320's on Virgin's behalf?

Aren't Aer Lingus due 2 more A319s around the same time?

[Aerlingus231]

There are plenty of A320's sitting on the ramp at DUB not being used at the moment since their previous owners have collapsed, perhaps Aerlingus could get a lease on some more aircraft to operate the routes. I think it's the fact that virgin don't have pilots or crew at the moment to operate A320's that means having to lease out the route. It'd also mean that the new aircraft could be painted in virgin colours, which has been rumoured.

[Papa2Charlie]

I understood that Avion Express were going to be operating for Virgin? They have been recruiting for LHR based crews for several weeks now with a start date of March 2013 which ties in with the Virgin timing for their domestic services.

[Cyrano]

Aer Lingus had bid for the LHR-EDI/ABZ routes themselves (and lost out to Virgin) so clearly they had a solution in mind for aircraft. I believe there may be a couple of EI A320s whose leases are due to expire in 2013 and which can be extended.

I think it's the fact that virgin don't have pilots or crew at the moment to operate A320's that means having to lease out the route. It'd also mean that the new aircraft could be painted in virgin colours, which has been rumoured.
I think it's more the fact that Virgin has no experience of short-haul operations and no real capability to develop that experience quickly. And the Virgin livery will certainly be on the aircraft (whoever operates them) - that's not just "rumoured".

[VanBosh]

So are Aer Lingus going to operate this service in the same way that Aer Arann operate EI Regional for them?

Will they be selling the flights on their own website similar to the united MAD-IAD route?

Interesting move for them, but if they are one of only 3 airlines making money in europe as per the article, you would wonder if they could not make more with the aircraft going alone? I suppose the Virgin brand/long haul feed may be the difference

[Cyrano]

So are Aer Lingus going to operate this service in the same way that Aer Arann operate EI Regional for them?

No, I believe it'll be a wet-lease operation. In other words, Virgin (assuming it's Virgin) pay EI a fixed amount per block hour to cover the operating costs plus some profit. It's then Virgin's responsibility to sell enough seats to make a profit. The commercial risk is with Virgin, and EI gets guaranteed revenue (hence the attraction for EI).

Aer Arann on the other hand is a franchise operation: Aer Arann pays Aer Lingus a franchise fee (typically a percentage of revenue), but if the flights don't fill up, it's Aer Arann as the operator who loses out - the commercial risk is with them.

[EI-A330-300]

I understood that Avion Express were going to be operating for Virgin? They have been recruiting for LHR based crews for several weeks now with a start date of March 2013 which ties in with the Virgin timing for their domestic services.

Indeed that would seem the case:

Carrier opportunities (http://www.avex.lt/carrier-oppurtunities)
Avion Express is recruiting Airbus A320 pilots and cabin crew for a longer term contract for scheduled operations based in London Heathrow, starting on March 2013.

Mabye people should look closer to home...

[racedo]

Always the same negativity racedo, post after post...year after year...its just so terribly sad. I suspect you are being deliberately obtuse in answering Waffler, who points out quite clearly that Aer Lingus's financial position is quite remarkably sound especially given the back drop of economy and local government subsidised competition. Admittedly money was wasted when a ryan air accountant popped in to show all "how it's done" but much of what you contend has cultivated a very lean machine. A machine so lean that they are making profit! Lets stick to the facts; Aer Lingus makes money. Aer Lingus competes in its market and wins. MOL wants to buy it for expressly those reasons. Hope you slept well, now pop a downer and retort...you know you're gonna!
ps. most carriers lose money over the winter racedo its the nature of the beast..suppose they could just ground the fleet on some remote airstrip for the duration but that doesn't do much for connectivity for Ireland which is kind of the point of having an air fleet but suspect that'll go over your head.

Why not address the issues rather than another personal dig.

[DollarBill]

Why not discuss the issues rationally rather than another personal anti-EI diatribe?

[PPRuNe Pop]

Cut and paste is never always a good option to encourage people to listen. I suggest you stick to facts. Its much easier that way.

[VanBosh]

What happened to Aer Lingus announcing the shirt haul partnership "within 24 hours"?

[dublinaviator]

Maybe they didn't want the announcement to be overshadowed by the budget?

[VanBosh]

Maybe but the interview was yesterday so they would have known about it. Strange to say within the next "24 hours" anyway. Why not either say nothing or else within the next few days

[ryan2000]

Looks certain to be the LHR EDI route on behalf of Virgin. Raises the question as to whether Aerlingus have spare capacity or not. Strange that they can't expand from Ireland due to fleet shortages but will now be able to produce an A320 like a rabbit out of a hat for a U.K. Domestic Route.

[Jamie2k9]

They have an A320 for sale at the minute and I would imagine that they could extend the lease of the two A320 that are up soon (A319 replacing) if needed. It is VS and should be official tomorrow.

In regard to expanding doing this for VS means all fixed costs covered and there is no risk to EI.

[Aerlingus231]

Looks certain to be the LHR EDI route on behalf of Virgin. Raises the question as to whether Aerlingus have spare capacity or not. Strange that they can't expand from Ireland due to fleet shortages but will now be able to produce an A320 like a rabbit out of a hat for a U.K. Domestic Route.

It's a lack of Transatlantic capacity they have, they've a fair bit of play with their European network.

[Jamie2k9]

It's a lack of Transatlantic capacity they have, they've a fair bit of play with their European network.

They have no capacity to play around with in summer for there short haul. You are talking about 6 daily LHR-EDI which would need a aircraft taken out of the fleet from DUB.

If there is an aircraft or two tech in summer they have to combine LHR flights to be able to operate European routes.

[Shamrock350]

Aer Lingus recently stated that two A319s would arrive early next year and act as replacements for two A320s, maybe those two or at least one might be staying.

[Locker10a]

So who will crew these flights?? Will we see EI reopen their LHR crew base? Or will the LGW crew operate these flights? Or will Belfast/ROI based crew operate the flights on a W pattern?
Also does the wet lease include cabin crew? What uniform will they wear? And will the EI aircraft be re-painted into virgin colours?

[fjencl]

Yawn yawn Where is the press release to say its them doing it.......?

Maybe somebody can post the press release link so we can all see the confirmation.

[Jamie2k9]

Give them time to announce it but people in EI seem certain that its VS. I expect it will be crewed from Dublin, can't see opening a UK cabin crew base to costly. I would also expect EI colours/uniform to remain the same as the United deal.

Can't see VS being to fussed about colour of aircraft/crew uniforms as all they want is EDI-LHR-XXX and EI have a good short haul product.

[Skipness One Echo]

Can't see VS being to fussed about colour of aircraft/crew uniforms as all they want is EDI-LHR-XXX and EI have a good short haul product.

Completely disagree. Given another firm is doing MAN-LHR, is it sensible to have a second carrier working EDI and ABZ. Unless this is properly managed and sold as a "Virgin Atlantic" product, feeding long haul to a high standard, it will fail. If it's just a green A320 with a wee VS logo that would be mad, They're going to need them kitted with decent red interiors and staff dressed to the nines.
Otherwise why bother? (slot sitting for long haul, I know but let's give them the benefit of the doubt this once!)

[Hangar6]

Soooooo

EI to provide wet lease for ALL VS domestic ,Dublin crews ,

start S13

great news for EI :D

[Jack1985]

Soooooo

EI to provide wet lease for ALL VS domestic ,Dublin crews ,

start S13

great news for EI

Where is the announcement?

[Hangar6]

Now

as you know there is a hostile takeover on the table

this means as per Stock Exchange rules...

No annoucements
No new routes
No spending money
No ordering planes
No leasing planes
No hiring DEC flight crew
Nothing .................................

but there's always a way sure arent we gud at this:)

[fjencl]

I understood that Avion Express were going to be operating for Virgin? They have been recruiting for LHR based crews for several weeks now with a start date of March 2013 which ties in with the Virgin timing for their domestic services.

Wonder who Avion Express are going to be operating for if its correct that EI are going to do all of the Virgin Domestic uk services then.........

[dublinaviator]

Hangar 6 there's been no announcement yet to confirm it. What's your source?

[Cian]

as you know there is a hostile takeover on the table


No, there isn't. Ryanair's bid was officially withdrawn when it was announced a full investigation was underway. There is no bid legally in place.

[Hangar6]

Fair point

SRB has to make the annoucement its his routes
mind you he is busy with SQ DL and Etihad at the moment ...

But I fired off a reminder :ugh:

[MCDU2]

Well if the article in the UKs Sunday Times is to be believed then it could all still be up in the air and Air France/KLM could be operating the flights.

Having said that the EU may well revisit their decision on the slots to Scotland if it looks like Virgin Atlantic will be sold.

[Cyrano]

Having said that the EU may well revisit their decision on the slots to Scotland if it looks like Virgin Atlantic will be sold.
I'm not aware of any provision in the Commitments to withdraw the remedy slots if the carrier to whom they are awarded changes ownership. That wouldn't make any sense anyway. If VS doesn't use the slots for the designated routes it loses them; that's the appropriate criterion, not who owns the airline.

Do you have a source for your suggestion, or could it perhaps be wishful thinking? ;)

[airbourne]

Virgin Atlantic Names Aer Lingus as Short-Route Partner - Bloomberg (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-12-10/virgin-atlantic-names-aer-lingus-as-short-route-partner.html)

Virgin Atlantic Names Aer Lingus as Short-Route Partner

Where are they going to get 4 VS branded aircraft from?

[mart901]

The article states the a/c will be sourced from EI. They have 2 more A319 planned and I would guess EIR having more of their routes in the new year with their new a/c, EDI-DUB is to be all EIR for instance.

[j636]

Accourding to the link VS are leasing the 4 aircraft from SAS and crew from EI.

[MCDU2]

VS are leasing the 4 aircraft from SAS

Don't think so....Airbus SAS is the full name of the aircraft manufacturer. Its not SAS as in the airline.

[ayroplain]

The article states the a/c will be sourced from EI. They have 2 more A319 planned and I would guess EIR having more of their routes in the new year with their new a/c, EDI-DUB is to be all EIR for instance.
Could the EI followers give us a picture of how this might affect EI's current routes, i.e., when the 4 x 320's depart to be fitted out/painted in Virgin colours that's quite a lump of workhorses out of their fleet. Are those 2 x 319's additional or replacement aircraft and when are they due?
Besides EDI-DUB what other routes could be envisaged for the new EIR a/c that could "free up" an existing A319/320 to replace at least one of "the departed"?
Maybe EI might wet-lease in a few of Mick's 738's to take up the slack :)

[Jamie2k9]

Could the EI followers give us a picture of how this might affect EI's current routes, i.e., when the 4 x 320's depart to be fitted out/painted in Virgin colours that's quite a lump of workhorses out of their fleet. Are those 2 x 319's additional or replacement aircraft and when are they due?
Besides EDI-DUB what other routes could be envisaged for the new EIR a/c that could "free up" an existing A319/320 to replace at least one of "the departed"?
Maybe EI might wet-lease in a few of Mick's 738's to take up the slack http://images.ibsrv.net/ibsrv/res/src:www.pprune.org/get/images/smilies/smile.gif

2 A319 due very soon
1 A320 for sale and not sold (most recent results by EI)
2 A320 lease ending (intended to be replaced by A319) unlikely to happen so they will be renewed.
Plenty of A320 laying in DUB waiting lease from failed carriers accross Europe.

I don't see any changes to the Irish bases as there is little flexability in summer and EI are not going to close routes that have being on sale with a few months to make way for this. They would have planned for this as they intended to operate EDI and ABZ. The extra aircraft for MAN is the only problem so expect another leased aircraft.

EI took on extra crew last summer at DUB so would expect a higher number this summer and would say there is enough crew to cover in winter.

Overall a very possitive move by EI.

[Jack1985]

EDI-DUB what other routes could be envisaged for the new EIR a/c that could "free up"

That will have no effect. Aer Lingus mainline operated a daily afternoon service last year complemented by 3 other daily flights with Aer Lingus Regional. The route now will operate with 5 daily Aer Lingus Regional flights from 31 Mar 13, that's having no effect with freeing up an aircraft.

[Locker10a]

I heard that LGW is due to close and staff and aircraft are due to transfer to to LHR(rumor). Are there many crew left in LGW? i know EI transferred a few of them over to DUB a few weeks ago! As mentioned here it was suggested EI operate this route as a W routing from DUB with DUB crew! but EI hardly expect the crew to change the uniforms on the turn-around!?!
Also if LGW closes will that be the end of LGW-NOC ?

[mart901]

Not 100% sure but doesn't NOC operate on a W from DUB anyway? It has done at times I'm sure. Most of the BHD flights are BHD a/c so that wouldn't be affected, the DUB route does have quite a lot of LGW base rotations until end of next summer, thats not saying it couldn't change. Night stopping could always be brought into play, it depends really I guess if they feel its better to use UK based crew who are paid less and have 2 LON crew bases or eliminate the associated costs by removing one of them.

[Mlinnie]

Wouldn't think that LGW base would close what with EI recently launching BHD-LGW which Is going to four daily next summer, DUB-LGW capacity is also increasing.

So with EI leasing 4 A320s to Virgin is it likely that we could see a cut in some routes ? I don't think they're are any routes in Aer Lingus' network that don't make a profit...

[Cyrano]

So with EI leasing 4 A320s to Virgin is it likely that we could see a cut in some routes ?

Jamie's post #931 above answers your question.

[akerosid]

Quote:
2 A319 due very soon
1 A320 for sale and not sold (most recent results by EI)
2 A320 lease ending (intended to be replaced by A319) unlikely to happen so they will be renewed.
Plenty of A320 laying in DUB waiting lease from failed carriers accross Europe.

Iberia is due to get rid of about 25 acft from its short haul fleet and I suspect that A319s will be among these (the current and imminently expected A319s are ex-IB), so acquiring some of these from IB may make sense from a commonality point of view.

I know there is a fair few acft from ground airlines at DUB, but many of these have the wrong engines and there can be little details here and there that can cause commonality issues.

I'd be surprised if EI didn't look at these.

[j636]

VS website showing MAN-LHR as an A319 so 3 A320 and 1 A319 for VS by the looks of it.

[Locker10a]

I see on the MAN-LHR timetable that the A319 due to operate this flight either over-nights in MAN or is going to be based there!

[Cyrano]

I see on the MAN-LHR timetable that the A319 due to operate this flight either over-nights in MAN or is going to be based there!

I would be surprised if at least 3 of the aircraft didn't overnight outside LHR, i.e. EDI/ABZ/MAN. The dominant point-to-point demand is to London in the morning, back in the evening, and also for morning connections you want to get the passengers to London as early as possible in the day.

[Cyrano]

Those admirably transparent folks in Dutch slot coordination have released their Summer 2013 slot allocations.

It's interesting to see that at Amsterdam Schiphol (slot allocations here (http://www.slotcoordination.nl/slot-allocation-list-graph.asp?r=q8m&ap=AMS&s=S2013&cmdOk=)), Aer Lingus applied for and received an 8th daily slot pair. Currently there are 7 daily EI services to AMS (5 DUB and 2 ORK), so where might that 8th AMS frequency go?

(Disclaimer, of course: just because an airline applies for and gets a slot doesn't mean that it will actually end up using it.)

[840]

Most likely is a 6th rotation to Dublin. There used to be six a few years ago and with BA now flying Dublin-Heathrow, it's in Aer Lingus interests to encourage connections through Amsterdam (where they still have a monopoly).

Cork might support extra rotations on Monday, Friday and Sunday, but 3 a day would be too much to have all week.

Similarly, I can't see a market in Shannon with its long haul services and plentiful Heathrow flights.

Knock could be the interesting one as it doesn't have a proper hub connection, but I'd feel even an A319 would be too big.

So, Dublin unless it's split along the lines of 3 days for one airport and four for another.

[Zag23]

What about Belfast City - Amsterdam? :ok:

[globetrotter79]

BHD - AMS?

[GAZMO]

If EI had any sense they would not look at BHD - AMS.

When they first arrived at BFS they tried a double daily to AMS.....soon reduced to daily and soon afterwards withdrawn.
BMIBaby tried 6 X weekly from BHD to AMS was soon reduced to 4 weekly. BMIbaby struggled!!

Most NI passenger will still look at LHR for connections

On both occasions load factors compared to EZY were not great. EZY operate 9 X weekly flights from BFS.........no real need for anymore

[EI-BUD]

Gazmo,
BHD AMS is not a route for EI ex BHD, I fear that they may look to put a daily rotation in place of the 4th daily LGW rotation that is being introduced in the summer. In any case that is a LGW originating rotation, so to bring AMS in would mean a reduction elsewhere or a 3rd airframe for Winter so cant see it. BHD AMS could work though it would need to be KLM with smaller machine i.e. EMBRAER or F70.

The schedule would be the making or breaking of the route.
I suggested before a night stop by KLM

The schedule would need to look something like this:
BHD AMS
Days :12345 0645 departure
Days : 5 1945 departure (allowing for leisure travellers)

AMS BHD
Days 1234 7 late departure ex AMS arrive late BHD say 2115
Days 5 evening departure ex AMS (allow for arrival into BHD 1915)

This pattern would give great scope for connections, great options for business men, allowing for day return granted a long day. Smaller aircraft. Would involve night stop on 4 nights of the week.

[Jack1985]

Most likely is a 6th rotation to Dublin.

Definitely agree.

[globetrotter79]

Forgive me if wrong...but don't KLM codeshare on the EI DUB-AMS? On that basis if EI could make an agreement for them to codeshare also on BHD-AMS (or, for that matter, any other ireland-AMS they might consider) would this make enough of a competitive difference (compared to the bmibaby recent efforts on the route) to make it worthwhile?

Just a thought...!

[EI-BUD]

globetrotter this makes perfect sense re codesharing on BHD AMS if EI did it but EI couldnt code share with KL ex BFS before, apparently there are union rules that only allow KL to code share on 2 routes per country. Therefore BHD couldnt have it as KL code share on other routes ex UK...

[GAZMO]

EI BUD

I believe that there would be more costs involved with your suggestion, but since it refers to KLM rather than EI maybe this is not the correct thread for posting reply. I would rather see EI operating routes not currently offered rather than possibly going into a price war with EZY

[EI-BUD]

Gazmo,

Yes I agree hence my KL suggestion. I dont see EI having scope on this route.
With the limited size of the market and the emphasis on outbound tourists with a 319/320 size aircraft options are limited. Yes you are possibly right for another forum, but since it relates to a comment about an EI AMS slot it was tagged on to EI discussion.

With the huge publicity around the world that the flags issue and the associated trouble in the city are gaining, I wouldnt expect the inbound tourist numbers to increase to any great extent, hence reducing likelihood of new destinations...

[840]

I've heard two versions of the union story that prevented code shares in Belfast before. One says no more than 2 destinations per airline (there are some airlines that have more, but they're all part of the AF/KL group); the other says no more than one code share airline per country ex Amsterdam.

Whichever is true still applies as EI offer ORK and DUB and FlyBe have codeshares from Amsterdam to UK destinations.

[j636]

BHD-AMS is wishful thinking Aer Lingus is a carrier that matches capacity with demad and there DUB-AMS route is top proformer and its the best route from T/A pax connecting at Dublin. (I know its stage that EI get such much traffic to the US from AMS). CDG has saw extra flights added so the daily flight if used will be to DUB.

Any news from Aer Lingus wouldn't be complete without Ryanair's take on things:
Ryanair Criticises Aer Lingus-Virgin Lease Deal (http://www.ryanair.com/en/news/ryanair-criticises-aer-lingus-virgin-lease-deal)

Also EI have launched pre order meals for SH routes:
Pre-Order Menu - Aer Lingus (http://www.aerlingus.com/inflight-experience/inflight-dining/shorthaul/pre-order/)

[Cyrano]

I've heard two versions of the union story that prevented code shares in Belfast before. One says no more than 2 destinations per airline (there are some airlines that have more, but they're all part of the AF/KL group); the other says no more than one code share airline per country ex Amsterdam.

Whichever is true still applies as EI offer ORK and DUB and FlyBe have codeshares from Amsterdam to UK destinations.

I believe it's the former. The Dutch pilots' union is not really interested in geographical markets, more in preventing KLM-coded flying from being carried out by third parties. That means limiting the number of destinations.

For example, I think you'll find that flyBE are limited to 2 UK codeshare destinations to AMS (INV and SOU (http://www.flybe.com/corporate/media/news/1205/29.htm)). Given that they fly to AMS from more than 2 UK points you could imagine that it would be a win/win for both BE and KL if that codeshare could be extended.

[EI-A330-300]

Aer Lingus plans wifi for flights - The Irish Times - Wed, Dec 12, 2012 (http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2012/1212/breaking26.html#.UMh-xl0ktGc.twitter)

[JSCL]

Willing to wager that any VS-EI jets will have the wifi.

[snipes]

Timetable for the Virgin flights to EDI/ABZ/MAN

Virgin confirms short-haul details - Business Traveller (http://www.businesstraveller.com/news/virgin-confirms-short-haul-details)

[840]

Some of those aircraft are seriously under-utilised.

[Jack1985]

Some of those aircraft are seriously under-utilised.

+1.. But hey its Aer Lingus coming out the winners here. :)

[EI-A330-300]

If the EU allowed FR take over EI BA would get 85% of EI LHR slots.

[ryan2000]

Any guarantee that they would use them on Irish routes?

[MCDU2]

Any guarantee that they would use them on Irish routes? Only for the required 3 years. There is an article in the FT online which says that BA could use the slots to fly elsewhere and that it is desperate to get its hands on more slots since the 3rd runway has been canned and LHR is at capacity.

I am wondering with these "remedies" if MOL hasn't shot himself in the foot. He never cared about LHR anyway as he had no intention of operating into there but would get lots of cash from selling/leasing the slots. Flybe wouldn't worry him in the least operating into Ireland since at the end of the 3 year period a "seat sale" would soon push them out of the country and hey presto its back to a monopoly and the good ole days are back.

With the growth in the Irish flying through the ME and connecting onwards with EK and EY I can't see BA keeping the Irish routes going after 3 years if they were successful in getting the slots. Also with the US carriers, CBP and hub connectivity through the east coast there would only be a few routes that people would find LHR worth flying through. Probably not enough to justify BA flying into Ireland for.

[BALHR]

Personally I am againt FR's takeover bid for EI

However I do support the sale of EI's slots at LHR (which are of a simlar number to VS at LHR), because BA would be able to lanuch new routes so they can better compete with its rivals in Europe and the Middle East

Remember that there would still be competition on the LON-IRE routes from Easyjet, Flybe and Ryanair

I also think it would be all of those slots, not 85%, since I doubt if FR wants to serve LHR

[Aerlingus231]

EI has way more slots at LHR than VS, they're the 3rd biggest holder of slots there. This is because EI operate high frequency flights to and from LHR where as VS operate long haul flights.

Easyjet does not fly to Ireland, and Flybe do not fly to any London airport from Ireland either.

If the slots were sold to BA you can bet that they won't be used for IRE-LHR routes as BA would find more profitable use for them on Long haul routes.

If anything, this just reinforces the fact that EI cannot be sold to FR as Ireland would lose it's LHR connections.

[EI-A330-300]

The EU will now refuse thetakeover as LON-IRL market moves from 4 operators (FR EI AF and BA) to 3 operators AF FR and B A. If FR had any hope the slots would need to go to VS.

[Shamrogue]

The whole crack story with EI etc just shows the strategic importance of the airline to Ireland. Heathrow despite the recent growth of EY etc is still vital as an airlink/hub to Ireland. Maintaining the connectivity is absolute. If BA or anyone finds a better use for the slot.......it's gone to new routes say "SFO" or wherever.
Obviously there is a bigger game going on in the background.

Regards

[Sober Lark]

You only have to look at BWIA to see how they undersold and were manipulated by the 'big players'. Now they have...?

[dublinaviator]

Ryanair has signed an MOU with BA to transfer up to 20 slot pairs as part of a new package of remedies to gain approval from the EC to takeover Aer Lingus:

Aer Lingus dips on Heathrow fears - The Irish Times - Mon, Dec 17, 2012 (http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2012/1217/breaking10.html)

The Sunday Business Post - Ryanair seen selling key Aer Lingus routes if deal succeeds (http://www.businesspost.ie/#!story/Home/News/Ryanair+seen+selling+key+Aer+Lingus+routes+if+deal+succeeds/id/19410615-5218-50ce-d1f6-7c3894210475)

IAG inks MOU with Ryanair | ATWOnline (http://atwonline.com/airline-finance-data/news/iag-inks-mou-ryanair-1217)

As part of the MOU, BA would takeover the Dublin, Cork, and Shannon routes to Heathrow for 3-5 years and could result in up to 6 BA aircraft being based in the Republic. This would leave Aer Lingus with just 4 slot pairs at Heathrow.

I really don't see the point in this. For one, why retain 4 slot pairs? There's no way they could be used for Ireland services and offer meaningful competition to BA, and I wouldn't see the point in Aer Lingus launching long-haul flights from Heathrow, so the only obvious conclusion is that they'd be leased out to other airlines. So Ryanair is effectively offering to replace a situation where 2 airlines compete on DUB-LHR with one where BA has a monopoly on the route.

I want to support a Ryanair takeover of Aer Lingus, but this latest remedy package just sounds crazy. There's no strategy, no logic, I don't see how it benefits Aer Lingus, or the consumer for that matter.

If this is what it takes for Ryanair to get approval from the EC to takeover Aer Lingus, it's not worth it.

However I do support the sale of EI's slots at LHR (which are of a simlar number to VS at LHR), because BA would be able to lanuch new routes so they can better compete with its rivals in Europe and the Middle East

That doesn't benefit Aer Lingus, Dublin or Ireland though. Remember Dublin is competing with the likes of Heathrow, Amsterdam, and Frankfurt as well, and Aer Lingus themselves have been very successful at increasing connecting traffic from regional airports in the UK, at the expense of BA. So you can understand from an Irish perspective why you wouldn't support 20 of Aer Lingus' slot pairs being transferred over to BA, only for them to launch a raft of new routes in 3 years time at the expense of Aer Lingus and Irish airports.

[Jamie2k9]

I really don't see the point in this. For one, why retain 4 slot pairs?

They are keeping 4 slots for competition reasons only.

[EI-BUD]

FR are getting a bit carried away, they havent gotten approval yet and they are already signing agreements with BA and the article includes Flybe, why on earth would FR do anything with Flybe? What routes would BE be invited onto? LGW DUB? Given BEs declining relationship with LGW couldnt see a future in that route for them.

DUB LHR is the busiest international route in Europe. There will always be a strong case for having minimum of 10 round trips a day. It is a strong and sustainable route so wouldnt have many worries about its survival without EI. However, simply cannot see FR gaining control. In my view not the right strategic partner/parent.

Does anybody know in what way will the EU investigate, i.e will they consult with other airlines in the market to get a sense of the competitive environment? If that makes sense....

[dublinaviator]

They are keeping 4 slots for competition reasons only.

There's nothing in the articles above to say there'll be any restrictions on how the remaining slots are used. And how could Aer Lingus provide any meaningful competition against BA on Ireland-Heathrow routes with just 4 slot pairs?

[Jamie2k9]

There's nothing in the articles above to say there'll be any restrictions on how the remaining slots are used. And how could Aer Lingus provide any meaningful competition against BA on Ireland-Heathrow routes with just 4 slot pairs?

I don't know but if I was part of the EC investigation team it would not look good from their point of view for BA to being given 100% control of IRL-LHR market. I see no other reason why FR would want to keep them.

[EI-BUD]

It would seem to me also that BA have clearly nailed their colours to the mast regarding the relationship between them and EI and the value that they place on it. Assuming FR do not gain approval how does this action by BA bode for the future relationship with EI???

Clearly FR could have done MOU with Virgin, but in such a case of competition authority in Ireland or UK, would FR be allowed to effectively choose the carrier or would it be like the BA surrender of slots for EDI ABZ etc where it wasnt up to BA?

[dublinaviator]

Clearly FR could have done MOU with Virgin, but in such a case of competition authority in Ireland or UK, would FR be allowed to effectively choose the carrier or would it be like the BA surrender of slots for EDI ABZ etc where it wasnt up to BA?

It'd be the same as it's a central company that allocates the slots. So Ryanair could have an MOU with BA to transfer the slots to them, but Virgin could end up getting them or it could be split 50/50, or who knows CityJet could bid for them.

I mean nobody predicted Aer Lingus would bid for BMI's former LHR slots when the EC first forced BA to release them as a condition of the takeover.

[Hangar6]

Comeon folkswe all must know EVERY word you read that allegedly comes from MOL is ALWAYS to be taken with a pinch of salt

The whole series of recent articles are those of a drowning man who has spent and wasted tens of millions on a gamble that HAS failed , its laughable
that he has us even trying to guage the possible outcomes

LHR slots are the life blood of ROI aviation needs and being an Island they will be protected at all costs by Government who stillhave a significant say in any takeover...look who now is holding the EU reigns for next six months

[dublinaviator]

LHR slots are the life blood of ROI aviation needs

The LHR slots are less relevant now than they were at the time of Aer Lingus' privatisation. The industry has completely changed, and even the Irish aviation scene has changed dramatically. Not only do Irish people have increased access to other major European hubs such as Frankfurt, but they also have the choice of the Middle Eastern hubs (Dubai and Abu Dhabi). Given the ever hardening relationship between Aer Lingus and BA recently, Aer Lingus have also made attempts to reduce their dependence on BA for feeder traffic. So I wouldn't go as far as to say LHR slots are the life blood of Irish aviation, they're important but they don't hold anywhere near the importance that they once held.

and being an Island they will be protected at all costs by Government who stillhave a significant say in any takeover...

The government can't block the sale of slots, and have admitted as such. It's no secret that Aer Lingus have leased out a number of their LHR slots in recent years, and we've heard no objections from the government.

look who now is holding the EU reigns for next six months

Don't see how that has any relevance or bearing on the outcome of the EC's takeover probe?

[Hangar6]

Traffic is still very robust on LHR

BA came back this summer,8 round trips annouced per day, never happened
Currenty 7 and willreduce to 5 next summer on week days ,4 at weekends

Your right BA have also just discovered ROI east bound LHaul traffic now goes via desert on brand new planes at attractive prices without the need to go terminal 1 to 5 in LHR

FR bid is dead in the water and MOL is really struggling to keep the door open for his appeal on the decision.

I am not convinced politics doesnt play a part in any competition decision here and even the UK authorities are looking at FR interest in EI

however maybe I am wrong time will tell but there is a compelling need to keep one of the very few profitable shorthaul airlines in Europe on one of the busiest routes in order to compete with FR

BA cannot compete on shorthaul to ROI with FR , EI can and this competition has to be protected and I believe EU will not want to see take away the healthy competion between two profitable Iirsh airlines .

time will tell ,

[ayroplain]

I am not convinced politics doesn't play a part in any competition decision here and even the UK authorities are looking at FR interest in EI
You have hit the nail on the head here. No matter if everything re the takeover was 100% OK it would not happen. FR is anti-Establishment and a successful bid would signal a victory so the Establishment simply won't allow it to happen. End of.

[BALHR]

EI has way more slots at LHR than VS, they're the 3rd biggest holder of slots there. This is because EI operate high frequency flights to and from LHR where as VS operate long haul flights.


http://www.acl-uk.org/UserFiles/File/LHR%20W12%20Seasonal%20Report.pdf

According to this both EI and VS have 304 slot pairs (or 3.3%) for the Winter 2012/2013 season

However, VS operates far more destinations that EI does about of LHR

Easyjet does not fly to Ireland, and Flybe do not fly to any London airport from Ireland either.


Easyjet and Flybe operate on the London-Belfast route, remember when we are dealing with Ireland, we are counting both the ROI and NI

If the slots were sold to BA you can bet that they won't be used for IRE-LHR routes as BA would find more profitable use for them on Long haul routes.


When BA bought BMI, they gained their LHR-DUB/BHD routes, now BA could have scrapped those routes (like BMI's routes to some destinations), but they did not, even if they scrap all the ex-EI LHR routes 9and they are likely to), they will still operate from LHR to Belfast and Dublin


The EU will now refuse thetakeover as LON-IRL market moves from 4 operators (FR EI AF and BA) to 3 operators AF FR and B A. If FR had any hope the slots would need to go to VS.


Flybe, Easyjet and Aer Lingus Regional operate on the LON-IRE routes as well, make that 6 (Cityjet has a uncertain future)

Forget VS buying those slots however, they biggest concern for a state is who is now going to operate LHR-MAN/EDI/ABZ and why would DL allow VS to buy those slots anyway when they serve DUB themselves?

If anything, this just reinforces the fact that EI cannot be sold to FR as Ireland would lose it's LHR connections


BA is still operating from LHR to Dublin and Belfast, those routes came from BMI, if they did not want to operate those route, then they would have been withdrawn, but they have not, so if BA buys EI's LHRs slots, Ireland will still have connections to LHR

There are many other reasons why FR should not buy EI however...

[Aerlingus231]

BA are just sitting on those slots, mark my words within the next 18-24 months BA will certainly be out of DUB and most likely out of BHD as well.

[Hangar6]

Agreed BA have already gone from 8 announced to Dublin, only ever got to 7 and now down to 5 from S13

Easy and FLYBE do not fly to Ireland , they are domestic operators to BFS BHD...Easy did try once but were chased off by FR pretty well overnight , and that same scenario will happen again once FR get EI, the alleged replacemnt carriers will get a free run for a while , maybe even a season then they will be undercut and scheule matched until they leave, as in GO BUZZ and currently Whizz on CorkPoland

BA will never make money shorthaul and they just need feed for Longhaul ex ireland ,,,, thats the bit outside the UK, ....

BUT

Any brief look at Longhaul ex IRELAND tells you ba are finsihed,

Emirates Etihad and now Turkish have taken the longhaul traffic South and East and the 10-14 flights a day westbound to USA take that longhaul slice.

When BA left Ireland 20 years ago they had a Longhaul product ex IRELAND

However its moved now to the new hubs , new planes, lower fare, less termianl swaps etc.

IRELAND is tiny but supports Etihad x10 a week to go 12 from S13, 6x777 and 6x330
Emirates 777 X7 a week soon to go 14 daily
Turkish daily soon to go 10 a week 737-900

Ba will re visit code share with EI in IRELAND , not sure about domestic UK BHD MAN ABZ EDI but deffinitley IRELAND

But their feed has gone, maybe they dont need it as certainly their capapcity cut backs reflect this.

[EI-BUD]

When BA bought BMI, they gained their LHR-DUB/BHD routes, now BA could have scrapped those routes (like BMI's routes to some destinations), but they did not, even if they scrap all the ex-EI LHR routes 9and they are likely to), they will still operate from LHR to Belfast and Dublin



BALHR, you need to understand that particularly in the case of domestic routes, BA has had to convince competition authority that they will support the regions of the UK and whether they wanted to do Belfast or not, they have to show that their take over of bmi will not be detrimental to domestic flying, similar reason why they have launched LBA LHR, a route that bmi axed years ago in favour of longer routes.

BA in Dublin, 8 a day from the outset was ambitious. Clearly slot holding. I dont see BA long term in DUB, though they will watch with interest what the outcome of FR takeover of EI is on that one.

Easyjet and Flybe operate on the London-Belfast route, remember when we are dealing with Ireland, we are counting both the ROI and NI



Who is 'we', I think readers in general with an interest in Ireland or UK aviation read this they understood the writer meant Ireland meaning the Republic of Ireland as most would know that easyJet do fly to Northern Ireland already.

EI-BUD

[BALHR]

I really don't see the point in this. For one, why retain 4 slot pairs? There's no way they could be used for Ireland services and offer meaningful competition to BA, and I wouldn't see the point in Aer Lingus launching long-haul flights from Heathrow, so the only obvious conclusion is that they'd be leased out to other airlines. So Ryanair is effectively offering to replace a situation where 2 airlines compete on DUB-LHR with one where BA has a monopoly on the route.


The reason they are retainng 4 slot pairs is for competition reasons, personally I think they will discontinue EI's services to LHR and then sell the remaining 4 slot pairs to BA

BA will not have a monopoly on LON-IRE (not LHR-IRE, there are several airports in LON), because Easyjet, Flybe and Ryanair thenselves will be competing on those routes

Remember what happened when Ryanair took over Buzz (the remains of Air UK that where not transfered to KLM), they will do the same to EI, and they have already starting the process...

However, simply cannot see FR gaining control. In my view not the right strategic partner/parent.


I agree, they have very diffrent business models, but they refuse to give up, I feel that they are only interested in EI as they where in Buzz, certain valueable assets that would work for them and disposing the rest

However EI should sell their LHR slots to BA, even if the takeover falls though (they can still codeshare on BA's LHR-DUB flight for example)


And how could Aer Lingus provide any meaningful competition against BA on Ireland-Heathrow routes with just 4 slot pairs?



EI's LHR-DUB route will shut down and those last 4 slots will also go to BA, without any comptition issues

I don't know but if I was part of the EC investigation team it would not look good from their point of view for BA to being given 100% control of IRL-LHR market. I see no other reason why FR would want to keep them.

If I was part of the EC team, then I would see that the LON-IRE (LHR-IRE is too narrowly focused) is still competitve with several operators (not just BA and FR)

It would seem to me also that BA have clearly nailed their colours to the mast regarding the relationship between them and EI and the value that they place on it. Assuming FR do not gain approval how does this action by BA bode for the future relationship with EI???


The BA-EI alliance has been weakening for the past 10 years at least (EI leaving OW for example) the latest being that BA cotinuing to operate the EX-BD LHR-DUB/BHD routes

BA should buy EI's LHR slots whatever happens, the is a lack of space at LHR for a start to lanuch new flights to compete with its rivals


Clearly FR could have done MOU with Virgin, but in such a case of competition authority in Ireland or UK, would FR be allowed to effectively choose the carrier or would it be like the BA surrender of slots for EDI ABZ etc where it wasnt up to BA?


It has been suggested that FR might do a deal with VS, but now it looks unlikely, I doubt if DL is interested in VS operating LHR-DUB (and LHR-MAM/EDI/ABZ for that matter), when they operate direct flights to Dublin from ATL and JFK)


It'd be the same as it's a central company that allocates the slots. So Ryanair could have an MOU with BA to transfer the slots to them, but Virgin could end up getting them or it could be split 50/50, or who knows CityJet could bid for them.


If Virgin is allowed by DL to operate LHR-IRE (unlikely), then they would get the 4 slot pairs FR is keeping (for now), CityJet already operate LCY-DUB, so no chance of them bidding (the bigger question should be would BA CityFlyer buy the airline...)

Comeon folkswe all must know EVERY word you read that allegedly comes from MOL is ALWAYS to be taken with a pinch of salt

The whole series of recent articles are those of a drowning man who has spent and wasted tens of millions on a gamble that HAS failed , its laughable
that he has us even trying to guage the possible outcomes


Unlike most his statements, this is a firm plan and not one of his idiotic comments

While I agree that MOL/FR is foolish to buy EI, they refuse to give up, honestly I expect it to go on and on until either they are sucessful or a "white knight" bidder emerges (the best one would be IAG)


LHR slots are the life blood of ROI aviation needs and being an Island they will be protected at all costs by Government who stillhave a significant say in any takeover...look who now is holding the EU reigns for next six months


If they could not prevent the EU forcing austerity on them, I doubt they can stop this entirely, FR/MOL are stubborn people, otherwise this would have died out long ago...

[globetrotter79]

The reason they are retainng 4 slot pairs is for competition reasons, personally I think they will discontinue EI's services to LHR and then sell the remaining 4 slot pairs to BA


In fact, I understand that the reason there are 4 LHR slot pairs excluded from the "agreement" is that these slots don't actually belong to EI - they are leased to EI by VS and are presently used to cover the 3x daily SNN-LHR and one of the daily DUB-LHR routings. As such, the assumption is that they will be returned to VS at some point in time.

[EI-BUD]

It has been suggested that FR might do a deal with VS, but now it looks unlikely, I doubt if DL is interested in VS operating LHR-DUB (and LHR-MAM/EDI/ABZ for that matter), when they operate direct flights to Dublin from ATL and JFK)




FR will not be doing a deal with anybody, the relevant competition bodies will decide and any deal to sell EI to FR will most likely include some form of ringfencing of LHR Slots. Assuming FR are given approval, seems most unlikely.



The BA-EI alliance has been weakening for the past 10 years at least


Not entirely true, the issues are quite recent. EI had added codesharing on BFS LHR before bmi deal was done. Leaving one world not a big issue between EI / BA. There relationship really only come under the spot light an appears strained since bmi purchase.

This will sort itself out in time. Too much at stake for both parties, particularly BA.

[Aerlingus231]

However EI should sell their LHR slots to BA, even if the takeover falls though (they can still codeshare on BA's LHR-DUB flight for example)

:ugh:

What??? :ugh: Did you just suggest that EI, a profitable company, should sell some of their most valuable assets to another company, so that the other company can make a profit at EI's expense? EI makes a profit on LHR, if it didn't then sure they could consider selling them, but what kind of mad hatter idea is it to sell something making you money, so that your competition can make money on it instead??? :ugh::confused:

[BALHR]

The LHR slots are less relevant now than they were at the time of Aer Lingus'
privatisation. The industry has completely changed, and even the Irish aviation
scene has changed dramatically. Not only do Irish people have increased access
to other major European hubs such as Frankfurt, but they also have the choice of
the Middle Eastern hubs (Dubai and Abu Dhabi). Given the ever hardening
relationship between Aer Lingus and BA recently, Aer Lingus have also made
attempts to reduce their dependence on BA for feeder traffic. So I wouldn't go
as far as to say LHR slots are the life blood of Irish aviation, they're
important but they don't hold anywhere near the importance that they once held.

While the BA-EI has been weaking for some time now and the rise of Eithad/Emirates has taken traffic away from BA/LHR, the LHR-DUB remains the 3rd Busiest rute out of LHR, if the route remains profitable, I doubt if BA pull out of DUB altogether

Nothing will cahnce on that reguard even if EI pulls out of LHR, in fact it might improve yields...


FR bid is dead in the water and MOL is really struggling to keep the door
open for his appeal on the decision.


I would not think so, like Godzilla, its keeps coming back...

Even if he loses this attempt, FR/MOL will be back...


I am not convinced politics doesnt play a part in any competition decision
here and even the UK authorities are looking at FR interest in EI


The Irish government might be againt it, but the problem is times have changed, the term "national/flag carrier" is not relevent anymore, EI should fight this takeover (and look for a white knight), but it cannot expect help from any European Government (not even the Irish one, they can't buy FR's stake in EI, not unless the EU relaxes its austerity measures)

however maybe I am wrong time will tell but there is a compelling need to keep
one of the very few profitable shorthaul airlines in Europe on one of the
busiest routes in order to compete with FR

BA taking over EI LHR slots and FR the rest of EI would not stop competition on LON-DUB/IRE, even if BA CityFlyer buys CityJet


BA cannot compete on shorthaul to ROI with FR , EI can and this competition
has to be protected and I believe EU will not want to see take away the healthy
competion between two profitable Iirsh airlines .


Yes that its true to a extent, but they already compete with FR on the LON-DUB route and they seem to be fine (they focus on diffrent sectors of the market)

Remember there is a lot of comptition on the LON-DUB route already, remember we already compete in a European Air Market, the airlines that compete don't have to be Irish

Overall however, the best airline for EI is not FR, but BA/IAG...

[Hangar6]

I cannot agree that BA already compete on IRISH routes

No service to CORK , only FR and EI
No service to SNN only FR and EI
No service to KIR only FR
No service to NOC only FR and EI

and the domestice legs

No service to LDY only FR

Service to BHD competes with EI BE EZYamong others but no FR

BA are cutting back on service to DUB , after less than a year , and never delivered on the promised 8 a day to BHD as yet anyway

Something just tells me BA will take any slots they can from IRELAND or Domestic UK and switch them toLonghaul when they get the planes

Why else have they no interest in serving some very busy routes.

I think there is more chance of FR buying IAG , for cash , than there is of EI selling BA their slots for BA to divert these slots away from IRELAND or Domestic UK ,

But who knows MOL always has a plan and he sure wants to expand and has the cash for IAG which is not performing well at all ......;)

[akerosid]

The Minister for Transport has just announced formally that the government will not be selling its 25% share in Aer Lingus to Ryanair.

[EI-A330-300]

Irish Gov have officaly confirned they will not sell Aer Lingus 25% share to Ryanair.

[VanBosh]

If cleared by EU they could still buy 75% but unlikely staff will sell their share either. The govt have announced they will appoint advisors in the new year so perhaps someone else will buy it. Who knows Ryanair may then try to buy that entity!

I just get the impression that a transformational move is coming for EI, I'm not sure what but whoever buys the govt. stake will give an indication. I know WW has said IAG aren't interested but the pension issue will have to be sorted before any sale and with such slots at LHR would IAG not be missing out big time not to go after it.

The number of services for EI, TK & EY added in last 5 years, a recessionary time in IRL shows the demand is there, surely this must be at BA's expense so perhaps that is causing the relationship change?

[Hangar6]

:D
still

EI will look to make a purchase of annother carrier , they have to grow
BA have lost the feed traffic no matter who they choose to code share with and I still think they will come back to EI and re visit the code share as they need those DUBLHR and BHDLHR slots to fly to all those places in CHINA and India with unpronouncable names.

EI are currently well run and VERY succesful but a small player.

Intersting times but its great that such a tiny wee ISLAND has two profitable shothaul carriers in these tough times , and maybe even RE and WX will get going again ,

[mart901]

Ireland may very well have 3 profitable airlines soon as stobarts are investing into RE/new ATR's. Be interesting to see what routes come out of that.

[VanBosh]

EI will look to make a purchase of annother carrier , they have to grow"

Who could they buy?

[brian_dromey]

I would hesitate to call FR and irish airline for the purposes of this discussion. FR flies a large multitude of routes across Europe and makes no reference to the profitability of individual routes. While FR is an Irish company, its reach stretches far beyond the island, although IRL-UK routes are thought to be some of the most profitable in the netowrk. By the same token cityJet has a very small presence in the Irish market. You could argue that FR and WX are profitable in spite of their Irish operations, rather than because of them.

[pinhammond]

To me it looks as if the Irish Government has made this decision on purely political grounds, probably connected with the Irish trade unions. The EI share price is well below the FR offer price. The share price will probably now collapse and those poor staff in the company bought into the company at privatisation will have lost all their investments. EI is going nowhere, has an appaling balance sheet when the pension liabilities are included and every development plan they have followed has failed. It looks as if they are heading for that giant airline scrapheap in the sky.

Meanwhile that other Irish airline (FR) which is actually one of the largest and most successful Irish businesses of any sort ever, has the highest market capitilisation of any European airline, has the strongest cash balance of any European airline, is the largest international airline in the world, has the best punctuality record of any large airline in Europe. Need I go on?
Put the two together and make Irish aviation even stronger. Fail to put them together and EI will fade away.
Why on earth the Irish government prefers the failed EI to one of Ireland's greatest successes ever is beyond me.

[dublinaviator]

I would hesitate to call FR and irish airline for the purposes of this discussion. FR flies a large multitude of routes across Europe and makes no reference to the profitability of individual routes. While FR is an Irish company, its reach stretches far beyond the island, although IRL-UK routes are thought to be some of the most profitable in the netowrk. By the same token cityJet has a very small presence in the Irish market. You could argue that FR and WX are profitable in spite of their Irish operations, rather than because of them.

Their HQ is in Ireland, all their staff are on Irish contracts, they pay tax in Ireland, they operate on an Irish AOC, and their aircraft are registered in Ireland. While they are very much spread across Europe, they are by all means an Irish airline.

I wonder would you be so quick to dismiss Aer Lingus as an Irish airline even though they've had bases residing outside Ireland...

[Hangar6]

OK so most of us rational aviation profesionals got good news today.

I have worked for both airlines and am not currently in an airline so I do want both of them to be a continued success.

FR board.... getting more Irish and politicaltoo.....Julie is interesting she saved FR back in the day they were bankrupt, she got TD Brennan to get EI out of STN , the ideawas to have two Irish airlines competing against non Irish airlines....nice to see her influence already .

MOL loosing his moutpiece , young Steve, wonder why they fell out ?

Thousands of Iirsh real Iirsh real tax paye paying jobs saved by todays decision , against FR agency staffing policy...

Arill challenges for EI , MOL is right they need to grow and there is no growth in Ireland or UK

So that list, a very short list these days of EU , winter sun shine based , airbus airlines that good be bought ha to be dusted down by Hangar 6...

EI cannot make a profit in all 4 quarters of the year, three is impressive but nov-jan is brutal on all Northern Hemiphere airlines , so EI must get an outlet where they can send 6 hulls and crew to work a winter for profit....
They tried this with WW in PMI before , this needs a re visit .

Being able to move your fleet to a profitable location was what started FR back in the day, EI moved a B747 to Thailand

Time to look at this a gain.

Oddly enough given their cash and good current KPI 's the time is right to purchase ....

any specualtion on what airline is up for sale with something to offer, ?

[Jamie2k9]

although IRL-UK routes are thought to be some of the most profitable in the network.

Remember the IRL-UK market (largely DUB market) has changed a lot since 2006/7 and routes once profitable are now heavily loss making.

Their HQ is in Ireland, all their staff are on Irish contracts, they pay tax in Ireland, they operate on an Irish AOC, and their aircraft are registered in Ireland. While they are very much spread across Europe, they are by all means an Irish airline.


Many UK based staff are on UK contracts and the UK is probably the largest or close to it for FR employment.

[Cyrano]

To me it looks as if the Irish Government has made this decision on purely political grounds, probably connected with the Irish trade unions. The EI share price is well below the FR offer price. The share price will probably now collapse and those poor staff in the company bought into the company at privatisation will have lost all their investments.
That's an interesting perspective. The EI share price was (naturally) below the FR offer price at the time of the offer and has gone nowhere near it ever since, a clear signal that the market has never believed in the offer. I see no evidence of the price "collapsing" in this morning's trading, presumably because the impending failure of Ryanair's bid doesn't really come as news.


Meanwhile that other Irish airline (FR) which is actually one of the largest and most successful Irish businesses of any sort ever, has the highest market capitilisation of any European airline, has the strongest cash balance of any European airline, is the largest international airline in the world, has the best punctuality record of any large airline in Europe. Need I go on?
Put the two together and make Irish aviation even stronger. Fail to put them together and EI will fade away.
Why on earth the Irish government prefers the failed EI to one of Ireland's greatest successes ever is beyond me.

"Put the two together and make Irish aviation even stronger" - you'll have to explain that one to me.

Imagine that somehow FR gets the green light to take over EI. BA gets the lion's share of the Heathrow slots and flyBE takes on 20 routes out of Ireland (including, incidentally, some longer sectors that really need 150+ seaters rather than E195s). What happens three years down the road? BA shifts most of the Heathrow slots over to more lucrative long-haul, and FR goes after flyBE with aggressive pricing and chases it off most or all of the 20 Irish routes, just as it's doing with Wizz in Cork. Result: the Irish market is then a Ryanair near-monopoly. But consumers should rejoice because "Irish aviation is even stronger"? Tell me again how exactly? :ooh:

[Meccano]

In a pigs eye.....

[dublinaviator]

Many UK based staff are on UK contracts and the UK is probably the largest or close to it for FR employment.

Granted, they have a UK holding company under which UK workers are employed, but the majority of their staff are on Irish contracts and pay Irish taxes. The point still stands, Ryanair is as Irish if not more so than Aer Lingus who also have a UK holding company and employ UK workers under UK contracts (and yet nobody is arguing Aer Lingus aren't Irish...).

It's just typically Irish that we have a company that is a world leader in their industry (one of a few such Irish companies) and one of the biggest airlines in the world, which we should proud of and yet some people don't even consider them Irish. And then we turn around and welcome the US multinationals with open arms as if they are Irish companies.

[Aerlingus231]

I think the point people were trying to make was that Aer Lingus is more dependent on Ireland, where as it only represents a fraction of Ryanair's operations.

In other words, Ryanair could cut all routes from Ireland tomorrow and still be a fairly well functioning airline, if Aer Lingus on the other hand did that, they'd only have 2-3 charter routes on their books out of LGW, with no other routes to survive on.

[brian_dromey]

No one is saying FR are not Irish. The point is that the majority of FR's operations take place outside of Ireland. FR does not break down route profitability by individual route, rightly so. This makes it hard to compare FR and EI in terms of profitability, if you do you have to assume that FR's Irish operations provide the almost the entirity of FR's cashflow, profits/losses, which I dont think is a safe assumption.