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Liverpool-5

Old 27th Jan 2022, 16:36
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Originally Posted by BACsuperVC10
Its not even on the agenda ...........
I didn't imagine for one momemt that it would be on the agenda, but just a point of historical interest.





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Old 27th Jan 2022, 16:48
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Originally Posted by Rutan16
There is a proposal to extend the runway to around the 10,000 feet mark a vain believe of gaining long haul (never mind 747s have previously operated TALC into Canada - A market now gone -some say dead literally).

Peel have long lived in sort of dreamland in what can be achieved at Speke to be honest.

The North West and indeed Northern Powerhouse needs a single primary airport with excellent regional rail and road connections and perhaps a second air cargo hub .

As for a driver for wider economic growth in the last sixty years Speke missed almost all growth targets and opportunities; baring one and that was a lucky break/gift given to them on a plate by MAG market mismanagement, the early flexible fares carriers Orange and Harp expansion in the early 2000s and EU liberalisation..

Regrettably even that peaked with a change of course 35miles down the road.

Putting aside the last 2 years (COVID and Brexit) terminal passenger numbers reached a high of 5,468,510 in 2007 ! and declined back below 4,000,000 in 2014 recovering to 5,043,975 in 2019.

During the same period most other compareble airports - I'll sight Bristol similar demographics, 2007 - 5,926,774, 2014 - 6,339,805 and 2019- 8,964,242 observed consistent growth.

We can also consider freight and mail have declined with the loss of the night mail hub and potentially missed opportunities with the consolidators.

Clearly Speke has under-performed and continues to do so.

If we consider the range of routes that support the local economy (rather than exporting holiday money) well Easy - serve Belfast, Amsterdam , Barcelona and Geneva with Madrid, whilst the Harp adds Dublin , Bergamo (Milan), Charleroi (Brussels), Rome and Stockholm with a few others
Wizz is almost all migrant labour inbound (with post Brexit notable declines)

And the airport doesn't even support an Aer Lingus flight into the hub these days -Even missed on the the new Aer Lingus Regional first wave.

KLC left with better things to do with the Schiphol slots

Nice to see Lufthansa try something sure.

The terminal is adequate for current and some years of future recovery/growth.

As a tool for inward investment into the city region, Speke is a shadow line to the presence of another facility down the road.

The North West needs to look at inward investment across the entire region and not just one of the two city regions competing.

Really the competition isn't Manchester or Liverpool , Preston or Blackburn no its the North West and indeed the North of England against the likes of the Ruhr , Milan and Barcelona where things are MADE yes the skill base remains that of manufacturing in the main.
Quite a depressing opinion. The Northwest is quite large enough to support two airports, and doesn't have excellent surface links, and probably never will. Liverpool has reported growth since 2015, apart from Covid, I see no reason why that won't continue.

As you know Aer Lingus was barred from flying from Liverpool for many years, Ryanair became the allocated carrier by the Irish Government, they have always been seen off by Ryanair ever since. Wizzair continues to add services now with 13 routes, Ryanair added several new routes recently, as did Easyjet.
Freight has increased of late too with 34 flights from China, over 30 of those were wide bodies.

Bristol is not really a good comparison, they have no large airport on their doorsteps. If you compare with LBA or NCL,, Liverpool is doing OK, and well done to the airports Management and Lufthansa for bringing us Frankfurt.
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Old 27th Jan 2022, 17:04
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Originally Posted by BACsuperVC10
Quite a depressing opinion. The Northwest is quite large enough to support two airports, and doesn't have excellent surface links, and probably never will. Liverpool has reported growth since 2015, apart from Covid, I see no reason why that won't continue.

As you know Aer Lingus was barred from flying from Liverpool for many years, Ryanair became the allocated carrier by the Irish Government, they have always been seen off by Ryanair ever since. Wizzair continues to add services now with 13 routes, Ryanair added several new routes recently, as did Easyjet.
Freight has increased of late too with 34 flights from China, over 30 of those were wide bodies.

Bristol is not really a good comparison, they have no large airport on their doorsteps. If you compare with LBA or NCL,, Liverpool is doing OK, and well done to the airports Management and Lufthansa for bringing us Frankfurt.
I think Rutan provides a fair assessment of the situation. Clearly LPL has a strong local market for primarily leisure oriented routes, with some historically strong links across the Irish Sea also being served. However, not too far down the motorway is MAN, currently undergoing a vast expansion. MAN has the critical mass, there is no way LPL will ever effectively compete against that. Most passengers in Merseyside won’t bat an eyelid at flying from Manchester, regardless of any local animosity.

The M62 corridor can only support one major airport.
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Old 27th Jan 2022, 17:41
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Two things:-

First, in the new world of COP26 and its aftermath and commitments to reduce emissions it is going to become increasingly difficult to get airport or runway expansion through the planning process, certainly not with any speed and as it is the planning system in UK is so unwieldly and protracted without adding the environmental considerations.

Second, there are already too many airports in the UK. Do we really need BHX and EMA, MAN and LPL, GLA and PIK, BFS and BHD or NCL and MME? As PUG says whatever the proponents of LPL might say, given decent surface connections LPL's "local" airport is essentially MAN. You could of course argue, with a a good deal of justification, that the surface links aren't that great at the moment between any of the airport pairs I've listed.

I think its pretty certain that in BHX, for example, were applying for their runway extension today, as opposed to half a decade ago they would have little or no chance of getting approval for it. The world is changing, whether for better or worse is debatable, but it will impact on air travel (outside of the sacred London of course!).
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Old 27th Jan 2022, 19:19
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Originally Posted by BACsuperVC10
Quite a depressing opinion. The Northwest is quite large enough to support two airports, and doesn't have excellent surface links, and probably never will. Liverpool has reported growth since 2015, apart from Covid, I see no reason why that won't continue.

As you know Aer Lingus was barred from flying from Liverpool for many years, Ryanair became the allocated carrier by the Irish Government, they have always been seen off by Ryanair ever since. Wizzair continues to add services now with 13 routes, Ryanair added several new routes recently, as did Easyjet.
Freight has increased of late too with 34 flights from China, over 30 of those were wide bodies.

Bristol is not really a good comparison, they have no large airport on their doorsteps. If you compare with LBA or NCL,, Liverpool is doing OK, and well done to the airports Management and Lufthansa for bringing us Frankfurt.
Aer Lingus has NEVER been barred from Speke that is utter nonsense and frankly has been illegal since 1997 under EU law; indeed under prior under the GB and Eire trade arrangements since 1923 !

CoVID19 supply flights will begin to wind down everywhere from the spring indeed China and the CAAC has instructed that no more freight on passenger exemptions for Chinese carriers will be permitted beyond April.

Bristol is an excellent comparison large local community (admittedly a vocal population of anti aviation and other green issues) and a massive leakage of traffic to a rather large regional field an hour and half away by train.

Indeed this is exactly the societal issues; in the south and along the M4 corridor commuting quite sizeable distances is actually the norm and I mean well in excess of 30 miles each way .
My own commutes take me up to 70 miles from home to work many days North West London into Central Kent.

As someone who lived and worked Bristol for several years, I can tell you many locals will choose Heathrow over navigating Dalby Avenue , West Street and eventually Bridgwater Road and up Potters Hill any day of the week!
Absolutely horrid journey . Be passing Reading of GWR in the same travel time !

I have no objection to Speke as a local airport serving local needs particularly exporting tourism however as a hub (using it as its literal meaning a transport interchange) its simply fails .

As for cargo; yes there may be some potential, however afraid MAG Group with the geographical advantages of Stansted and EMA and the major consolidators onboard have well and truly captured that market .

I give you Wizz has negotiated a rather good package, however wonder if it actually makes money for Peel Group- indeed if it delivers any profit at all !

(Tirana and Chisinau have a rather political usage in ONE way- if you know what I mean)








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Old 27th Jan 2022, 19:28
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Rutan, that’s not quite correct. Aer Lingus were barred in about 1988 under a licensing arrangement to create what were “spheres of interest” for them and Ryanair. Obviously this was swept away in 1992, but your statement that they have never been barred is inaccurate, I’m afraid. I’m sure someone else may be able to fill in the bits of detail I can’t recall.
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Old 27th Jan 2022, 20:34
  #127 (permalink)  
 
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Rutan16
As you may already know, none of the regional airports make money from the likes of Ryan Air , Easy Jet etc. It is all about Parking, Duty Free, Food franchises, the landing charges are minimal. Flights to the Canaries were, or maybe are still, the preferred destination for airports such as Liverpool, as apparently statically they show the biggest spend in the areas I mentioned. That information was accurate a few years ago as a family member was involved in the legal aspect of a number of regional UK airports, and I do not think much will have changed.

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Old 27th Jan 2022, 21:00
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Originally Posted by Flightrider
Rutan, that’s not quite correct. Aer Lingus were barred in about 1988 under a licensing arrangement to create what were “spheres of interest” for them and Ryanair. Obviously this was swept away in 1992, but your statement that they have never been barred is inaccurate, I’m afraid. I’m sure someone else may be able to fill in the bits of detail I can’t recall.
You are quite correct, I worked in the travel industry at time and remember it clearly. Rutan is incorrect.
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Old 27th Jan 2022, 21:12
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Originally Posted by Rutan16
Aer Lingus has NEVER been barred from Speke that is utter nonsense and frankly has been illegal since 1997 under EU law; indeed under prior under the GB and Eire trade arrangements since 1923 !

CoVID19 supply flights will begin to wind down everywhere from the spring indeed China and the CAAC has instructed that no more freight on passenger exemptions for Chinese carriers will be permitted beyond April.

Bristol is an excellent comparison large local community (admittedly a vocal population of anti aviation and other green issues) and a massive leakage of traffic to a rather large regional field an hour and half away by train.

Indeed this is exactly the societal issues; in the south and along the M4 corridor commuting quite sizeable distances is actually the norm and I mean well in excess of 30 miles each way .
My own commutes take me up to 70 miles from home to work many days North West London into Central Kent.

As someone who lived and worked Bristol for several years, I can tell you many locals will choose Heathrow over navigating Dalby Avenue , West Street and eventually Bridgwater Road and up Potters Hill any day of the week!
Absolutely horrid journey . Be passing Reading of GWR in the same travel time !

I have no objection to Speke as a local airport serving local needs particularly exporting tourism however as a hub (using it as its literal meaning a transport interchange) its simply fails .

As for cargo; yes there may be some potential, however afraid MAG Group with the geographical advantages of Stansted and EMA and the major consolidators onboard have well and truly captured that market .

I give you Wizz has negotiated a rather good package, however wonder if it actually makes money for Peel Group- indeed if it delivers any profit at all !

(Tirana and Chisinau have a rather political usage in ONE way- if you know what I mean)
Well you don't work for Peel, so your just guessing. I don't agree with your BRS comparison I'm afraid, but we will leave that there. I think you may well see more cargo from Liverpool, I hear the recent influx of flights have been very happy with the handing available Wynne Aviation. Clearly they weren't tempted with Ringway.
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Old 27th Jan 2022, 21:49
  #130 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by BACsuperVC10
Well you don't work for Peel, so your just guessing. I don't agree with your BRS comparison I'm afraid, but we will leave that there. I think you may well see more cargo from Liverpool, I hear the recent influx of flights have been very happy with the handing available Wynne Aviation. Clearly they weren't tempted with Ringway.
Not sure I understand what point you’re trying to make re. Aer Lingus and a ban on operating from Liverpool during some period 30 odd years ago, and what it has to do with anything?

I was under the impression the current long haul cargo operation was directly related to the covid supply flights? In that case if the need for these flights on such levels dries up (which is becoming increasingly apparent) then the cargo services dry up as a result. They’re not going to continue to operate flights with zero - or very little - payload just because they are ‘very happy’ with the service at Wynne Aviation .


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Old 28th Jan 2022, 07:52
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Originally Posted by pug
Not sure I understand what point you’re trying to make re. Aer Lingus and a ban on operating from Liverpool during some period 30 odd years ago, and what it has to do with anything?

I was under the impression the current long haul cargo operation was directly related to the covid supply flights? In that case if the need for these flights on such levels dries up (which is becoming increasingly apparent) then the cargo services dry up as a result. They’re not going to continue to operate flights with zero - or very little - payload just because they are ‘very happy’ with the service at Wynne Aviation .
Wynne Aviation deal with cargo, not just PPE cargo.
Aer Lingus were the incumbent on the DUB route from the beginning, way back. My point is, since they were told to leave the route, they have never been able to hold their own against Ryanair. Dublin is still a busy route from Liverpool nonetheless with over 380,000.00 passengers in 2018. I would say this is much higher than the Aer Lingus days, higher than LBA , and not much behind BRS. These both have two operators.
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Old 28th Jan 2022, 08:08
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Originally Posted by pug
I think Rutan provides a fair assessment of the situation. Clearly LPL has a strong local market for primarily leisure oriented routes, with some historically strong links across the Irish Sea also being served. However, not too far down the motorway is MAN, currently undergoing a vast expansion. MAN has the critical mass, there is no way LPL will ever effectively compete against that. Most passengers in Merseyside won’t bat an eyelid at flying from Manchester, regardless of any local animosity.

The M62 corridor can only support one major airport.
We all know about MAN but it doesn't have all the answers to the north of England's flying needs. No one is saying the north needs another MAN, but I think you're quite wrong to say LPL does not compete effectively, it does offer a real alternative for passengers to MAN. The perception that Liverpool Airport only serves it's "local market", and I presume you mean LCR is also quite wrong.

I am finding it very curious where this "anti-Liverpool Airport " sentiment comes from quite frankly.
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Old 28th Jan 2022, 08:14
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Yesterday was second visit by Ural Airlines A321 cargo, plus Redwings B777 also cargo.

Flybe was also in for the second time this week training.
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Old 28th Jan 2022, 10:09
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Originally Posted by BACsuperVC10
We all know about MAN but it doesn't have all the answers to the north of England's flying needs. No one is saying the north needs another MAN, but I think you're quite wrong to say LPL does not compete effectively, it does offer a real alternative for passengers to MAN. The perception that Liverpool Airport only serves it's "local market", and I presume you mean LCR is also quite wrong.

I am finding it very curious where this "anti-Liverpool Airport " sentiment comes from quite frankly.
Personally Liverpool isnt an alternative to me despite being 30 miles away. I only ever consider MAN, but I get the price concious might travel to save a few quid here and there.

Weirdly airports seem like football clubs to interested parties, MAN dont like LPL, BHX versus EMA, LTN versus STN, GLA versus EDI, LHR versus LGW etc and visa versa in each case. Don't ask me why but you see evidence in all of the forums of it.

LPL has its place for bucket and spade, city breaks etc but will never be any more than than and there is room for that in the NW.

Talk above of a second runway at LPL made me giggle a little I must admit, even MAN with many fold the passengers struggled at its peak to make 100% use of a second runway. The cost is huge and the need at LPL is zero.
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Old 28th Jan 2022, 10:33
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Originally Posted by eggc
Personally Liverpool isnt an alternative to me despite being 30 miles away. I only ever consider MAN, but I get the price concious might travel to save a few quid here and there.

Weirdly airports seem like football clubs to interested parties, MAN dont like LPL, BHX versus EMA, LTN versus STN, GLA versus EDI, LHR versus LGW etc and visa versa in each case. Don't ask me why but you see evidence in all of the forums of it.

LPL has its place for bucket and spade, city breaks etc but will never be any more than than and there is room for that in the NW.

Talk above of a second runway at LPL made me giggle a little I must admit, even MAN with many fold the passengers struggled at its peak to make 100% use of a second runway. The cost is huge and the need at LPL is zero.
Someone on here mentioned a second runway, it has never been in the airports plans, so why it was mentioned i've no idea ! Purely misinformation.

I travel quite often but rarely need to use MAN, even though its not much further for me, I prefer the ease of using LPL. Price comes into where people book, but anecdotally I often hear from fellow passengers who prefer LPL over MAN just because it's more pleasant to use, and they are not all from the LCR, Gtr Manc passengers are quite common and other areas.

As to what LPL will become in the future we don't know. It wont be another MAN, but it will continue to serve the NW well to Europe destination at least


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Old 28th Jan 2022, 11:51
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Originally Posted by BACsuperVC10
We all know about MAN but it doesn't have all the answers to the north of England's flying needs. No one is saying the north needs another MAN, but I think you're quite wrong to say LPL does not compete effectively, it does offer a real alternative for passengers to MAN. The perception that Liverpool Airport only serves it's "local market", and I presume you mean LCR is also quite wrong.

I am finding it very curious where this "anti-Liverpool Airport " sentiment comes from quite frankly.
Other than critique based on economic perspectives and comparative markets ( which you ignore ) you will find not a word against the existence of Speke ( or some other name quite forgettable !)

As I said Liverpool performs a function of exporting some holiday monies (price conscious) in the main and provides a critical NHS link with Ellen Vannin !
The first is /was a function of the liberalisation of air travel within the EU single market and amplified by some market miss-calculations at MAG.

And I will continue to compare and contrast with Bristol !

Consider EasyJet has grown based aircraft and associated employment from 3 ex Go 737s to 17 based and a network of more than 70 routes whilst Liverpool stagnates at 6/7 aircraft and what Is little more than a moving of the deck chairs on routes each season .

Since the 2013 cuts in which Liverpool took a hit recovery has been near non existent , whilst others have done so.

Easyjets commitment seems pretty luck warm imho.

Ryanair similarly has a policy of deck chair route moves and just four resident frames. And in their highest years at Speke their presence was as a result of a pricing spat with MAG !

Done some research on the late 80s spears of influence debate and DAA role apparently is true apologies, however a court ruling made it unenforceable anyway followed closely by EU liberalisation. A period 4 years should be irrelevant today.

As Mr Mac said it’s pretty irrelevant today or indeed anytime since the 2000s.

Whilst MOL is certainly carrying significant numbers across the choppy sea’s, especially football fans for big games; similarly to that other place, the fact that Aer Lingus seemingly are unable to cover costs indeed make money feeding their key connections and healthy local traffic is damning imho.

It indicates the general weakness in the local and indeed regional business travel market right there and personal.

As for the snide you don’t work for Peel statement well as a businessman company owner and shareholder have access to the Peel reports and financials surprised !

Since Peel regained majority ownership they have gone through the tawdriest economic times.
The ESG rating is just 3 with pretty poor credit scores B+ against comparable businesses.

With both those considerations, and just £9 million in reserves, any investment is going to be difficult to attain, let alone be authorised by central government without further risk loaded ( basically expensive) and environmental assessments . Those organic flying thingies in the bay estuary will certainly play a part !

The proposed container, freighting business on the marsh to the south is really what Peel are after , the airport rather less so from Peel Ports own assessments.

It a land grab by any other name .

Peel are a hard nosed Ports and commercial real estate business , aviation rather less so.

When Vantage relinquished there stake relatively cheaply and so quickly after their purchase it’s a clear indication of weakness of the business and expected future returns ( dividends - none forthcoming !)

Want to compare to Newcastle it’s apples and oranges.
A regional airport with heavily range of legacy routes by KL/AF, LH/EW, BA/VY AND EK to the world !
A region with up till Brexit massive industrial and petrochemical INWARD investment and simultaneously serving as the departure point for exported holiday monies . An area equally bounded by large rural communities and a regional population within 30 mile of just 1.24 millions compared to 1.45 millions within Merseyside .

Now clearly not going to depute the elephant in the room for Speke with massive leakage to a normally significant European Airport .

Now superVC10 ( magnificent aircraft !) with such information available perhaps you can see the many many issues commercially and financially facing Liverpool as even a group three airport .

I also eco ATNotts simple assertion that the UK ( England) probably have too many airports in the grade three groupings chasing relatively similar traffic .

Caveat Birmingham and East Midlands have their specific niches , whilst the first is largely restricted by easy access access to London .

Last edited by Rutan16; 28th Jan 2022 at 12:37.
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Old 28th Jan 2022, 12:20
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And I will continue to compare and contrast with Bristol !
I don't think Liverpool deserves to be compared to Bristol. They're very different, I'm not sure how Bristol would be doing if there was a larger airport 30 miles away serving a much larger conurbation with better transport connections.
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Old 28th Jan 2022, 12:25
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Originally Posted by BACsuperVC10
Someone on here mentioned a second runway, it has never been in the airports plans, so why it was mentioned i've no idea !
It was mentioned by me, simply out of historical interest, because when the airport was owned by British Aerospace, some 30 years ago, they did examine plans to build a twin runway airport at Speke. Here's a quote from the link I posted earlier:-

BRITISH AEROSPACE is examining plans to build a new pounds 1bn international airport at Liverpool with twin runways .....
I can clearly remember attending a briefing in 1992, chaired by Chris Preece (Airport Director at the time), and part of the plan was to extend the airport by reclaiming land from the mudflats of the estuary to make space for two runways. It was also mentioned that some of this work could be done by one of BAe's associated companies at the time, Ballast Nedham, which had expertise in this field. All very ambitious, and no surprise that it didn't proceed, or that a second runway is not part of current airport plans.



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Old 28th Jan 2022, 13:27
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Originally Posted by spekesoftly
It was mentioned by me, simply out of historical interest, because when the airport was owned by British Aerospace, some 30 years ago, they did examine plans to build a twin runway airport at Speke. Here's a quote from the link I posted earlier:-



I can clearly remember attending a briefing in 1992, chaired by Chris Preece (Airport Director at the time), and part of the plan was to extend the airport by reclaiming land from the mudflats of the estuary to make space for two runways. It was also mentioned that some of this work could be done by one of BAe's associated companies at the time, Ballast Nedham, which had expertise in this field. All very ambitious, and no surprise that it didn't proceed, or that a second runway is not part of current airport plans.
Ahh well I didn't know about the BAe proposal . The current hullabaloo is from the Liverpool Airports more recent masterplan, which I think is viewable on their website, for more information .
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Old 28th Jan 2022, 13:53
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Although I live 5 miles away from MAN, I would certainly use LPL more often if the ground transportation was much better.
Using MAN can be a pretty grim experience from a passenger perspective, especially if using the depressing T1. Walkways & lifts broken, lights out, security queues, no seating in eateries, baggage belts broken, passenger info screens not updated etc etc. certainly, if you lived between the two, I'd know which way I'd prefer to go.
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