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CAA Provisional Stats: JAN'2016
Summary of some long haul results:
MEB3 Pax // Ave. Load // Jan'16 v Jan'15
EK // 80,655 // 434 // '+15%
EY // 37,672 // 304 // '+8%
QR // 27,328 // 220 // '+30%
CX // 10,785 // 317 // '+5% L/F 93.3%
SQ // 9,354 // 151 // '-3%
SV was up 3% with an average load of 206
TK increased 23%
Pax to the USA overall were up 14.7%. Significant increases on JFK (99%)
and ATL (40%) were partially offset by reductions on PHL (17%); EWR (5%) and MCO (3%). The timing of frequency reductions and route suspensions (ORD & IAD) may have varied slightly from the previous Jan.
The usual caveat that where average loads are shown, it assumes all flights operated. L/F on the MEB3 are complex due to different a/c types and configurations used.
Summary of some long haul results:
MEB3 Pax // Ave. Load // Jan'16 v Jan'15
EK // 80,655 // 434 // '+15%
EY // 37,672 // 304 // '+8%
QR // 27,328 // 220 // '+30%
CX // 10,785 // 317 // '+5% L/F 93.3%
SQ // 9,354 // 151 // '-3%
SV was up 3% with an average load of 206
TK increased 23%
Pax to the USA overall were up 14.7%. Significant increases on JFK (99%)
and ATL (40%) were partially offset by reductions on PHL (17%); EWR (5%) and MCO (3%). The timing of frequency reductions and route suspensions (ORD & IAD) may have varied slightly from the previous Jan.
The usual caveat that where average loads are shown, it assumes all flights operated. L/F on the MEB3 are complex due to different a/c types and configurations used.
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Many thanks MANFOD for your stats. I'm away from a computer at the moment and so can't access my own spreadsheets and I don't do load factors. That means that your figures are extremely helpful.
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Semi interesting to note that the average EK load is greater than the capacity of their 2 class 77W.
If we were to say that the 360 seat 77W operated EK21/22, the 519 seat A380 operated EK17/18 and the 615 seat on the EK19/20 then we come to a capacity of roughly 92628 seats available in January.
Which means that approximately 87.07% of seats filled. That's approaching ramp up capacity or frequency time!
If we were to say that the 360 seat 77W operated EK21/22, the 519 seat A380 operated EK17/18 and the 615 seat on the EK19/20 then we come to a capacity of roughly 92628 seats available in January.
Which means that approximately 87.07% of seats filled. That's approaching ramp up capacity or frequency time!
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That's approaching ramp up capacity or frequency time!
With allegedly high cargo loads as well on the B777, it does make you wonder what the route has to do to justify more capacity. Incidentally, per CAPA Aviation, CX's overall load factor in January was 86%, so our 93% is rather impressive, don't you think?
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SpannersCX also suggested we would not see CX at MAN at all until they had 350's, so due to his respect of commercially sensitive news he does not always quite say it as it is. Publically released articles suggest they did have every intention of increasing MAN this year, hardly surprising looking at the loads. DUS is to get 350's later this year, October I think, that may free up a 77W so they can go daily prior to 350's gracing ringways tarmac.
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In Spanners defence, CX had been consistently saying that European expansion would come with the A350. The pointers suggested for around 100,000 passengers per year so it would have been logical to have a smaller aircraft to start the route. I doubt they would have anticipated getting 300 passengers per flight which is above the A350 capacity.
Unfortunately, DUS getting the A350 does nothing for freeing up a 77W for MAN - its the same days of operation but with the 4 class 77W.
Unfortunately, DUS getting the A350 does nothing for freeing up a 77W for MAN - its the same days of operation but with the 4 class 77W.
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I too find the CX strategy a bit odd.
Clearly the aircraft marked for our expansion was by all accounts rerouted to a Gatwick service fairly late on was it not.This assumes of course we believe Prune rumourville on which you take your choice.
Had they started Gatwick FIRST , hit 93% load factor and then decided on that basis to start a Manchester flight I'm sure the Gatwick avgeeks /personnel would be scratching their heads.
Whilst understanding the need to grab slots whilst they can , it does seem odd that clearly you have a nailed on successful operation that you are prepared to potentially compromise for a shot at a service at an airport 50 miles from where you already operate 5 flights a day , every day !!!
It is of course entirely possible that CX feel the Manchester market is finite and that a daily would dilute down the current LF. Might it also compromise fares based on supply over demand ?
That said it is equally possible a "daily" would have made it even more popular given the certainty of operation that a daily undoubtebly provides.
Clearly the aircraft marked for our expansion was by all accounts rerouted to a Gatwick service fairly late on was it not.This assumes of course we believe Prune rumourville on which you take your choice.
Had they started Gatwick FIRST , hit 93% load factor and then decided on that basis to start a Manchester flight I'm sure the Gatwick avgeeks /personnel would be scratching their heads.
Whilst understanding the need to grab slots whilst they can , it does seem odd that clearly you have a nailed on successful operation that you are prepared to potentially compromise for a shot at a service at an airport 50 miles from where you already operate 5 flights a day , every day !!!
It is of course entirely possible that CX feel the Manchester market is finite and that a daily would dilute down the current LF. Might it also compromise fares based on supply over demand ?
That said it is equally possible a "daily" would have made it even more popular given the certainty of operation that a daily undoubtebly provides.
Last edited by Bagso; 19th Feb 2016 at 07:38.
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And in other news....
New team will oversee Airport City Manchester development - Manchester Evening News
".....work should start this year"
Well a collective sigh of relief on that one.
I must confess I "thought" ownership of the land and indeed "the team" had been in place 3 years.
I'm suprised none of the MEN reporters have sought to upset the apple cart by having the audacity to query timescales but anyway, lets not be churlish, thank goodness our first JCB is about to come spluttering over the horizon.
New team will oversee Airport City Manchester development - Manchester Evening News
".....work should start this year"
Well a collective sigh of relief on that one.
I must confess I "thought" ownership of the land and indeed "the team" had been in place 3 years.
I'm suprised none of the MEN reporters have sought to upset the apple cart by having the audacity to query timescales but anyway, lets not be churlish, thank goodness our first JCB is about to come spluttering over the horizon.
Last edited by Bagso; 19th Feb 2016 at 07:41.
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I too sometimes wonder what the &%$£^ is going on, why start LGW when you already have 5 a day to LHR and places like MAN are screaming for an increase! My understanding is CX were offered another slot at LHR but because the time varied everyday they didn't want it so chose a fixed slot at LGW instead
For years we were told the MAN service was looked at and that until the 350 came along there was insufficient airframes and crews to operate to MAN
Then for whatever reason it started in Dec 14, with the proposed change over to the 350 in Oct this year, however at the same frequency. Now the delays to the 350 delivery are well documented and the first LH routes to launch are DUS/LGW/AKL (subject to change) although the first arrives in Apr it will fly around Asia, MNL, BKK, SGN etc for at least 3 or 4 months.
The belief is that by the end of the year, although the initial deliveries are late, the planned 11 deliveries will be made, where these will be deployed, who knows the plan changes every day, I don't expect a 350 or increase in frequency at MAN this year, but........
For years we were told the MAN service was looked at and that until the 350 came along there was insufficient airframes and crews to operate to MAN
Then for whatever reason it started in Dec 14, with the proposed change over to the 350 in Oct this year, however at the same frequency. Now the delays to the 350 delivery are well documented and the first LH routes to launch are DUS/LGW/AKL (subject to change) although the first arrives in Apr it will fly around Asia, MNL, BKK, SGN etc for at least 3 or 4 months. The belief is that by the end of the year, although the initial deliveries are late, the planned 11 deliveries will be made, where these will be deployed, who knows the plan changes every day, I don't expect a 350 or increase in frequency at MAN this year, but........
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The MEN is breathless this morning. ...
Is the Powerhouse heading in the right direction? - Manchester Evening News
Within the article it takes a while for MAN to rise to the top but we are at last getting more airplay. There is little doubt that Heathrow and indeed BA have been fundamental to the the growth of London.
If the North is to become a powerblock Manchester Airport has to be central to the growth of NP albeit on a modest scale.
If GDP in the North gets to a tenth of London in size it will be a success.
One small criticism. @IFB2016 takes place in Liverpool later this year, scholars of prune will note it is a major gathering of 30,000 delegate's involved in increasing business in this part of the world and ties in with the ethos of the #northernpowerhouse, suprisingly "in my view" there is no evidence that MAG will be represented.
At least they have not been quoted as being there nor have been vocal as yet......Heathrow however will be, and will no doubt be peddling their usual propaganda regarding the benefits of expansion across the UK.
It seems odd that if Manchester Airport is a vital in being front and centre of the "NP", it should also be leading the charge at this event as well.
Given location I'm sure Heathrow will be championing the need for direct flights to Liverpool despite the fact most if not all its populous are I'm sure voting with their feet and using Manchester. ....lest we forget, just 40 mins away for most of Merseyside !
Should MAN do more to be more inclusive and win over hearts and minds by shouting it's corner at events such as this ?
Is the Powerhouse heading in the right direction? - Manchester Evening News
Within the article it takes a while for MAN to rise to the top but we are at last getting more airplay. There is little doubt that Heathrow and indeed BA have been fundamental to the the growth of London.
If the North is to become a powerblock Manchester Airport has to be central to the growth of NP albeit on a modest scale.
If GDP in the North gets to a tenth of London in size it will be a success.
One small criticism. @IFB2016 takes place in Liverpool later this year, scholars of prune will note it is a major gathering of 30,000 delegate's involved in increasing business in this part of the world and ties in with the ethos of the #northernpowerhouse, suprisingly "in my view" there is no evidence that MAG will be represented.
At least they have not been quoted as being there nor have been vocal as yet......Heathrow however will be, and will no doubt be peddling their usual propaganda regarding the benefits of expansion across the UK.
It seems odd that if Manchester Airport is a vital in being front and centre of the "NP", it should also be leading the charge at this event as well.
Given location I'm sure Heathrow will be championing the need for direct flights to Liverpool despite the fact most if not all its populous are I'm sure voting with their feet and using Manchester. ....lest we forget, just 40 mins away for most of Merseyside !
Should MAN do more to be more inclusive and win over hearts and minds by shouting it's corner at events such as this ?
Last edited by Bagso; 19th Feb 2016 at 12:18.
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I assume MAN/MAG will be at next week's NP International Conference at Manchester Central as Ken O'Toole is quoted in the M.E.N. article. The keynote speaker I see is Lord Jim O'Neill. Not heard from him for a while.
Bagso, do we know if a representative from HMG will be attending or speaking at the (Manchester) conference - ideally Mr Osborne, although the Business or Transport Secretary would be a start?
Bagso, do we know if a representative from HMG will be attending or speaking at the (Manchester) conference - ideally Mr Osborne, although the Business or Transport Secretary would be a start?
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Quoting Bagso:
I think there's little doubt that a daily service stimulates extra demand than 3 or 4 flights weekly on long haul. Importantly, this probably applies more to business travellers paying premium fares as it gives greater flexibility when booking a trip; but also if their meetings overrun or finish early, they know they can try and catch a flight the next day or the previous day (if not full!). A daily can also provide better options for onward transfers at Hong Kong if those connecting flights are not daily.
If CX 's plan originally was to replace the B777 with an A350 when available, but remain at 4 x weekly - a reduction in seats from 340 to about 280 I believe, and presumably freight capacity - it does perhaps suggest they have been somewhat surprised at how well volume wise the MAN flights have performed.
That said it is equally possible a "daily" would have made it even more popular given the certainty of operation that a daily undoubtebly provides.
If CX 's plan originally was to replace the B777 with an A350 when available, but remain at 4 x weekly - a reduction in seats from 340 to about 280 I believe, and presumably freight capacity - it does perhaps suggest they have been somewhat surprised at how well volume wise the MAN flights have performed.
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Well, I am voting with my feet!.
Most of my long haul travel is with British Airways out of choice. I used to fly from Manchester via Heathrow but then transferred to using the train from Liverpool to Euston and then the tube to London. Which turned out to be just as fast.
The reason for my switch to the train was the awful experience that is Terminal 3.
Now, I have a new way of connecting, and it is just as quick. I fly Aer Lingus from Liverpool to Dublin and then transfer onto a BA service to Heathrow for my long haul connection, and guess what? I now save a bundle of money because the air taxes out of Dublin are so much cheaper!
However, if BA introduced a Liverpool to Heathrow service (fat chance!) then I would revert back to the BA domestic feeder.
Having said all that, I cannot understand why MAG would not be at IFB 2016 in Liverpool pitting against Heathrow. Especially given the amount of long haul routes Manchester now have and will have in the future.
Most of my long haul travel is with British Airways out of choice. I used to fly from Manchester via Heathrow but then transferred to using the train from Liverpool to Euston and then the tube to London. Which turned out to be just as fast.
The reason for my switch to the train was the awful experience that is Terminal 3.
Now, I have a new way of connecting, and it is just as quick. I fly Aer Lingus from Liverpool to Dublin and then transfer onto a BA service to Heathrow for my long haul connection, and guess what? I now save a bundle of money because the air taxes out of Dublin are so much cheaper!
However, if BA introduced a Liverpool to Heathrow service (fat chance!) then I would revert back to the BA domestic feeder.
Having said all that, I cannot understand why MAG would not be at IFB 2016 in Liverpool pitting against Heathrow. Especially given the amount of long haul routes Manchester now have and will have in the future.
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Northern Powerhouse
For me, the salient line in the MEN article is that after some 18 months, no new money has been made available. It's simply a rebadging of existing funding at a time when we are being softened up to provide who knows how much for Heathrow expansion, Crossrail 2, Ornamental Bridges, etc etc.
If Northern Powerhouse isn't to become another failed project then it needs funding urgently with new money. I have little confidence that it will be.
And yes, it does need to be far more inclusive as from St Helens it still appears to be a Manchester vanity project. Manchester Airport is indeed very well placed to act as the central gateway to the North and I applaud and support the development of long haul routes. However, if as is suggested by a number of posters here Manchester should also Hoover up the short haul routes as well, it does little to allocate wealth more evenly across the North. It simply turns Manchester into a little London.
If Northern Powerhouse isn't to become another failed project then it needs funding urgently with new money. I have little confidence that it will be.
And yes, it does need to be far more inclusive as from St Helens it still appears to be a Manchester vanity project. Manchester Airport is indeed very well placed to act as the central gateway to the North and I applaud and support the development of long haul routes. However, if as is suggested by a number of posters here Manchester should also Hoover up the short haul routes as well, it does little to allocate wealth more evenly across the North. It simply turns Manchester into a little London.
Last edited by eye2eye5; 19th Feb 2016 at 10:56. Reason: Addition
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That about sums it up, I think the only ones that are surprised are those that do flt planning, everyone else knew it was screaming out to be done. but what do we know!
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Shaheen now bookable.
Starts 15th March and uses the A330-300 rather than the planned -200 (according to their website)
NL901 ISB 1100 MAN 1400
NL902 MAN 2200 ISB 1100
Tue/fri/sun.
Starts 15th March and uses the A330-300 rather than the planned -200 (according to their website)
NL901 ISB 1100 MAN 1400
NL902 MAN 2200 ISB 1100
Tue/fri/sun.
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AMETYST1
So you would go to so much trouble just to avoid Manchester which is just down the road?
You would fly LPL-DUB-LHR-XXX ?
Seriously?
I think you may have a personality disorder.
You clearly are time rich and money poor - so from an airline perspective poor yield. You have just provided a very good example of why airlines think LPL is a lower yield proposition than MAN.
I fly Aer Lingus from Liverpool to Dublin and then transfer onto a BA service to Heathrow for my long haul connection,
You would fly LPL-DUB-LHR-XXX ?
Seriously?
I think you may have a personality disorder.
You clearly are time rich and money poor - so from an airline perspective poor yield. You have just provided a very good example of why airlines think LPL is a lower yield proposition than MAN.