CARDIFF - 2
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From what I have been hearing, CWL haven't been offering the airlines they have been speaking with a good enough incentive to start up ops, they have only offered small reductions in fees which has meant the likes of Jet2 and Monarch have walked away.
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Danny,
So if you own a corner shop, with your wife and family to support, with a supermarket only a limited distance away, are you going to sell your goods at such levels, just to make your shop look busy, whereas you can't afford to support yourself and your family, or are you likely to explain that you are offering reasonable prices and if 'you' don't like it them please shop elsewhere?
So if you own a corner shop, with your wife and family to support, with a supermarket only a limited distance away, are you going to sell your goods at such levels, just to make your shop look busy, whereas you can't afford to support yourself and your family, or are you likely to explain that you are offering reasonable prices and if 'you' don't like it them please shop elsewhere?
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I get the impression that some posters think the removal of the APD will be the saviour of Cardiff Airport or at least that the APD is mainly responsible for the heavy decline in passenger numbers in recent years.
The following figures show a comparison between Cardiff and Bristol (in thousands) over the last decade. The Cardiff figures peaked in 2007 whilst Bristol peaked in 2008.
Cardiff
2000 - 1498
2007 - 2094 (+39.8%)
2010 - 1398 (-33.2%)
2000 - 2010 (-6.7%)
Bristol
2000 - 2124
2008 - 6229 (193.3%)
2010 - 5723 (-8.1%)
2000 - 2010 (+169.4%)
Interestingly, Bristol had 41.78% more pax than Cardiff in 2000 but by the end of the decade the difference had increased dramatically to 309.4%.
Also Cardiff had 6.7% fewer pax at the end of the decade that at the begining whilst Bristol had 169.4% more pax during the same period.
I believe the APD has sod-all to do with the current state of Cardiff Airport as it seems obvious that Cardiff has failed to achieve and/or maintain the growth in traffic compared to its nearest competitor over a substantial period of time.
So what are the real reasons for this ? Is it a case of the pax numbers are simply not there, or the airport management being closely related to Rip Van Winkel, or is there some other logical explanation?
The following figures show a comparison between Cardiff and Bristol (in thousands) over the last decade. The Cardiff figures peaked in 2007 whilst Bristol peaked in 2008.
Cardiff
2000 - 1498
2007 - 2094 (+39.8%)
2010 - 1398 (-33.2%)
2000 - 2010 (-6.7%)
Bristol
2000 - 2124
2008 - 6229 (193.3%)
2010 - 5723 (-8.1%)
2000 - 2010 (+169.4%)
Interestingly, Bristol had 41.78% more pax than Cardiff in 2000 but by the end of the decade the difference had increased dramatically to 309.4%.
Also Cardiff had 6.7% fewer pax at the end of the decade that at the begining whilst Bristol had 169.4% more pax during the same period.
I believe the APD has sod-all to do with the current state of Cardiff Airport as it seems obvious that Cardiff has failed to achieve and/or maintain the growth in traffic compared to its nearest competitor over a substantial period of time.
So what are the real reasons for this ? Is it a case of the pax numbers are simply not there, or the airport management being closely related to Rip Van Winkel, or is there some other logical explanation?
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Danny,
So if you own a corner shop, with your wife and family to support, with a supermarket only a limited distance away, are you going to sell your goods at such levels, just to make your shop look busy, whereas you can't afford to support yourself and your family, or are you likely to explain that you are offering reasonable prices and if 'you' don't like it them please shop elsewhere?
So if you own a corner shop, with your wife and family to support, with a supermarket only a limited distance away, are you going to sell your goods at such levels, just to make your shop look busy, whereas you can't afford to support yourself and your family, or are you likely to explain that you are offering reasonable prices and if 'you' don't like it them please shop elsewhere?
Airports can make revenue from other sources bar aircraft, such as car parking etc, however without the added passengers that the airlines bring that won't happen.
Those in this thread wondering why no other airlines have come in, it looks like the fees could be a factor.
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Danny,
KLM expect the lowest operating costs from CWL?
MOL walks away from any airport that dares to introduce a tax, a tax that puts money back in to UK investment, rather than maximise profits in to his (non UK) foreign pockets?
Danny .... I'm from the old school, I'm not 'Mr Reggie Spotter', I have my own business, I know how to pull in the purse strings to successfully compete with the opposition, but expect me to start operating at a loss, just to keep the 'Reggie Spotters' happy, then you'll get a two word answer!
Danny .. Ask yourself this ... Would PLH airport be closing if it were in Wales with WAG to bail it out no matter how much money it were losing?
KLM expect the lowest operating costs from CWL?
MOL walks away from any airport that dares to introduce a tax, a tax that puts money back in to UK investment, rather than maximise profits in to his (non UK) foreign pockets?
Danny .... I'm from the old school, I'm not 'Mr Reggie Spotter', I have my own business, I know how to pull in the purse strings to successfully compete with the opposition, but expect me to start operating at a loss, just to keep the 'Reggie Spotters' happy, then you'll get a two word answer!
Danny .. Ask yourself this ... Would PLH airport be closing if it were in Wales with WAG to bail it out no matter how much money it were losing?
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PF, I'm not debating the pros and cons of the airport reducing costs to attract airlines and thus more passengers as that would take all day and you would never get a definite answer, as obviously there are many different business strategies you can employ. You obviously feel that CWL should charge the full fees to airlines to meet their costs, however I am also looking at the fact there are other strategies to meet those costs, such as having lower initial costs to the airlines but make up lost revenue from increased passenger spend within the Terminal etc.
My point however is that it looks likely that the airlines that were interested in setting up a base at CWL have walked away due to the costs.
Remember that KLM are not a loco and have a completely different cost base to that required by a loco. CWL are obviously trying to attract a loco carrier to pick up Baby's routes, however if CWL are not able to meet the costs required by the likes of Jet2, who have obviously come to agreements successfully with many other UK airports, it doesn't bode well for any growth in the near future.
My point however is that it looks likely that the airlines that were interested in setting up a base at CWL have walked away due to the costs.
Remember that KLM are not a loco and have a completely different cost base to that required by a loco. CWL are obviously trying to attract a loco carrier to pick up Baby's routes, however if CWL are not able to meet the costs required by the likes of Jet2, who have obviously come to agreements successfully with many other UK airports, it doesn't bode well for any growth in the near future.
Last edited by Danny_R; 28th Jul 2011 at 23:53.
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Like PF I am from the old school, I have been filling charters ex CWL since the 70's and was one of the two founders of Air Wales in 1999 ( its first flight was much later after RGDT backed the idea) and I believe the following.
No LoCo is going to be interested in setting up a base at CWL or NQY simply because the traffic is not there, what the airport charges is important but not vital. This does not mean new routes may not appear but equally some will disappear. If the terminal is a shed it doesn't matter to the airline as long as the route is profitable.
The business is very cyclical though and all that may change in the fullness of time, perhaps for the better and perhaps like PLH for the worse.
There is still though business for a small Do228 type operation and had AW stuck to that they may still be around, low cost to the airline not the passenger. I would rather have 3 passengers paying £300, than 15 paying £50!
To help rebuild CWL, NQY etc now needs innovation not dreams of big jets, it can be done, it need not cost a fortune and is possible. These are marginal airports and need smaller planes to serve it.
Finally please stop comparing CWL to BRS, it isn't BRS, it is a different catchment area, I have driven from Cornwall and Devon to catch a flight from BRS but if the second choice was CWL I would probably rather drive to LGW or LHR instead.
That is my thought anyway but in my dreams I would still like to see a major new airport next to the M5 and the railway at about Wellington in Somerset with easy access to the entire area and routes Worldwide.... dream on!
No LoCo is going to be interested in setting up a base at CWL or NQY simply because the traffic is not there, what the airport charges is important but not vital. This does not mean new routes may not appear but equally some will disappear. If the terminal is a shed it doesn't matter to the airline as long as the route is profitable.
The business is very cyclical though and all that may change in the fullness of time, perhaps for the better and perhaps like PLH for the worse.
There is still though business for a small Do228 type operation and had AW stuck to that they may still be around, low cost to the airline not the passenger. I would rather have 3 passengers paying £300, than 15 paying £50!
To help rebuild CWL, NQY etc now needs innovation not dreams of big jets, it can be done, it need not cost a fortune and is possible. These are marginal airports and need smaller planes to serve it.
Finally please stop comparing CWL to BRS, it isn't BRS, it is a different catchment area, I have driven from Cornwall and Devon to catch a flight from BRS but if the second choice was CWL I would probably rather drive to LGW or LHR instead.
That is my thought anyway but in my dreams I would still like to see a major new airport next to the M5 and the railway at about Wellington in Somerset with easy access to the entire area and routes Worldwide.... dream on!
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Just to add my tuppence to the mix ( and I am welsh so not welsh bashing).
Wales unfortunately like many other areas of the UK has been hit very hard by the recession. Many of the large industries have up sticks and moved abroad leaving thousands out of work. With wages much lower than some parts of the UK, many people cannot afford to fly.
I believe that CWL will only prosper and expand when the economy recovers. The WAG can help this, not by throwing money at routes and spending on terminal development, but by doing all it can to attract high tech industry to the area with high paid jobs and to retain graduates and workers in the area so they don't have to move to London or bigger UK cities for work. The more disposable income a person has the more they spend and therefore are more likely to travel more.
I'm not an expert in this field and know that I will get shot down from the experts but just wanted to put forward my thoughts :-)
Wales unfortunately like many other areas of the UK has been hit very hard by the recession. Many of the large industries have up sticks and moved abroad leaving thousands out of work. With wages much lower than some parts of the UK, many people cannot afford to fly.
I believe that CWL will only prosper and expand when the economy recovers. The WAG can help this, not by throwing money at routes and spending on terminal development, but by doing all it can to attract high tech industry to the area with high paid jobs and to retain graduates and workers in the area so they don't have to move to London or bigger UK cities for work. The more disposable income a person has the more they spend and therefore are more likely to travel more.
I'm not an expert in this field and know that I will get shot down from the experts but just wanted to put forward my thoughts :-)
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Nice to see a bit of common sense being spoken on the CWL thread ! I remember being taken to CWL as a young lad in the early 80s and there being not a single departure on the board for that day ! (The doughnut was nice though). I also remember operating from CWL in the late 90s early noughties when a summer saturday almost looked like a proper airport. CWL seems to have extreme cycles of use going back to the 60s feast or famine. As Bill Clinton rightly said "it's the economy stupid" and it is ! When the good times roll again (hopefully) the departure boards will start to fill up.
I understand the frustrations of some of those trying to turn things round. Not all the positive thinkers on here are "spotters" or "school boys" some people are campaigning because their jobs are genuinely at risk if the downward spiral continues. The airport owners have decided, for whatever reason, they can not give access away. But even if they did offer it for nothing would someone like Jet 2 come anyway in the current climate ? It is a good get out for them to say "too expensive" instead of "too poor". They may well want to come in a couple of years time why offend your future customers.
As for APD there are a few issues that probably make it meaningless. The WAG don't yet have control of it and may not ever. Secondly, even if they did, it is the assumptiuon being made on these forums is that they would abolish it. BIG BIG assumption. At best they may cut a couple of quid, not enough to cause a big queue of english people at the severn bridge tolls and at worst they may even raise it ! Remember the WAG, BBC Wales and the Welsh Enviromentalists , whatever the cover story, are actually all run by the same 50 people all living in Pontcanna and deciding they know best. Can't see the sandle wearers of the Peoples Liberation Party (WAG / BBC Wales / WLS) standing for a cut in any enviromental related tax.
(Before I get a racist bullet I am Welsh and I have lived and worked amongst the Pontcanna elite !)
I understand the frustrations of some of those trying to turn things round. Not all the positive thinkers on here are "spotters" or "school boys" some people are campaigning because their jobs are genuinely at risk if the downward spiral continues. The airport owners have decided, for whatever reason, they can not give access away. But even if they did offer it for nothing would someone like Jet 2 come anyway in the current climate ? It is a good get out for them to say "too expensive" instead of "too poor". They may well want to come in a couple of years time why offend your future customers.
As for APD there are a few issues that probably make it meaningless. The WAG don't yet have control of it and may not ever. Secondly, even if they did, it is the assumptiuon being made on these forums is that they would abolish it. BIG BIG assumption. At best they may cut a couple of quid, not enough to cause a big queue of english people at the severn bridge tolls and at worst they may even raise it ! Remember the WAG, BBC Wales and the Welsh Enviromentalists , whatever the cover story, are actually all run by the same 50 people all living in Pontcanna and deciding they know best. Can't see the sandle wearers of the Peoples Liberation Party (WAG / BBC Wales / WLS) standing for a cut in any enviromental related tax.
(Before I get a racist bullet I am Welsh and I have lived and worked amongst the Pontcanna elite !)
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Originally Posted by bycrewlgw
I believe that CWL will only prosper and expand when the economy recovers. The WAG can help this, not by throwing money at routes and spending on terminal development, but by doing all it can to attract high tech industry to the area with high paid jobs and to retain graduates and workers in the area so they don't have to move to London or bigger UK cities for work. The more disposable income a person has the more they spend and therefore are more likely to travel more.
One thing that stands out in the calls to "Save Cardiff Airport" campaign is a complete lack of confidence in the whole area of South Wales. All the cries are for bargain-priced tickets out of the region. What about attracting people in? Sure, the global economy is shot to bits, but there are still plenty of investors looking for a good place to bury their money, and they will consider doing that in Cardiff/South Wales if the current residents use whatever resources they have at their disposal to make the place a bit more dynamic and let the rest of us know! The airport, for its part, could do worse than leaving Bristol to become the Stansted of the West and create its own identity, reinventing what it means to be a regional airport (sorry, a small national airport).
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Cardiff customers don't need bargain price tickets what they do need are tickets same price or slightly lower than Bristol. Time and time again I try and fly out of Cardiff- Same hotel, nearly same time flight, same airline and Bristol is £100 per person cheaper. Many of my friends say "going out of Bristol this time, £400 cheaper than Cardiff same hotel , be mad not to". I even paid the extra fair for my son to fly out of Cardiff rather than go all the way to Bristol.
I have a lot of contact with the flying public out of Cardiff and usually ask about holidays and the answer is that they really want to travel form Cardiff, but, it used to be because of the destinations now it is due to price as well.
If the cost can down to Bristol's prices then I am sure Cardiff would see an increase in Pax. Thats on a package.
Low cost needs a cheap operator to take on Easyjet and Ryanair at Bristol, BMIbaby were just too expensive - a difficult task I know Jet2 and Monach still would not be cheap enough.
Until these issues are tackled then the numbers will carry on dwindling.
I have a lot of contact with the flying public out of Cardiff and usually ask about holidays and the answer is that they really want to travel form Cardiff, but, it used to be because of the destinations now it is due to price as well.
If the cost can down to Bristol's prices then I am sure Cardiff would see an increase in Pax. Thats on a package.
Low cost needs a cheap operator to take on Easyjet and Ryanair at Bristol, BMIbaby were just too expensive - a difficult task I know Jet2 and Monach still would not be cheap enough.
Until these issues are tackled then the numbers will carry on dwindling.
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heading 125,
As a rule of thumb the smaller the aircraft then the more expensive, per seat, it is to operate thus, as an example, a B737-800 operator can offer cheaper fares than a B737-300/A319 operator who can offer cheaper fares than a B737-500 operator and so on but only if seat sales attain expected targets.
However, as has been demostrated, CWL does not have sufficient enough of a catchment area to fill LoCo B737-800's, indeed B737-500's, if one wishes to travel from CWL then one needs to appreciate that CWL has a lesser catchment area than, let us say, BRS who's catchment area spreads from mid point to BHX, mid point to LHR, mid point to SOU, and all the way down to Lands End.
If any person wants 'bucket shop' fares them move to a bucket shop
As a rule of thumb the smaller the aircraft then the more expensive, per seat, it is to operate thus, as an example, a B737-800 operator can offer cheaper fares than a B737-300/A319 operator who can offer cheaper fares than a B737-500 operator and so on but only if seat sales attain expected targets.
However, as has been demostrated, CWL does not have sufficient enough of a catchment area to fill LoCo B737-800's, indeed B737-500's, if one wishes to travel from CWL then one needs to appreciate that CWL has a lesser catchment area than, let us say, BRS who's catchment area spreads from mid point to BHX, mid point to LHR, mid point to SOU, and all the way down to Lands End.
If any person wants 'bucket shop' fares them move to a bucket shop
Last edited by Phileas Fogg; 31st Jul 2011 at 20:24.
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Have to say this, but too many on here, and another place that I shan't name, are looking at this from the wrong end.
From an airport point of view, a case must be built why a certain route will prosper, and why that route will prosper more than an existing route of the airline, after all costs of setting the route up are amortised.
BUT from an airline standpoint?
Consider an airline, let's call them Prop2 for the sake of argument. They don't serve Cardiff, but run five 737s out of Grantchester, Oldcastle and Glasburgh, serving some 30 routes. They know, in absolute detail, the financials of these routes, and are confident that given they can only operate 30 routes with their existing fleet, they have chosen the optimum 30 routes. Why on earth would they drop one of their 30 best routes, and take a punt on a new base and a new route out of Cardiff?
Answer - they won't.
Why on earth would they risk the significant capital investment in a sixth aircraft, plus the associated crew, maintenance and other costs, to build capacity, so that they can take a punt on Cardiff?
Answer - they won't. Certainly not in the current economic climate.
All the whining in the world won't alter the facts. Right now, without a start up with very deep pockets, or a significant shift in the economic prospects of the Cardiff catchment, or a major change to pricing, Cardiff is going to be bumping along the bottom for the foreseeable.
But. Point 3 would be taken care of with a decent move on APD.... And the WG DO have the power to change the rate.... They can't abolish, but they can change the rate, even to zero. Compare factum, prescription charges.... And my alter ego has had some fun meetings this week with the people who move the levers on this one, not the opposition, but the people with the power.
Let me run an idea past you here. APD for a family of four leaving from BRS to say Orlando, is £300. If I were the flight or tour operator, and the CWL rate suddenly becomes zero, I would be writing to all my punters, apologising profusely, telling them that for operational reasons the flight now leaves from CWL, and here's £100 compensation.... Nice eh?
Watch this space, and listen to facts, not wild mad speculation.... And don't assume that the WG are a load of aviation hating lefties. They aren't.
TA
From an airport point of view, a case must be built why a certain route will prosper, and why that route will prosper more than an existing route of the airline, after all costs of setting the route up are amortised.
BUT from an airline standpoint?
Consider an airline, let's call them Prop2 for the sake of argument. They don't serve Cardiff, but run five 737s out of Grantchester, Oldcastle and Glasburgh, serving some 30 routes. They know, in absolute detail, the financials of these routes, and are confident that given they can only operate 30 routes with their existing fleet, they have chosen the optimum 30 routes. Why on earth would they drop one of their 30 best routes, and take a punt on a new base and a new route out of Cardiff?
Answer - they won't.
Why on earth would they risk the significant capital investment in a sixth aircraft, plus the associated crew, maintenance and other costs, to build capacity, so that they can take a punt on Cardiff?
Answer - they won't. Certainly not in the current economic climate.
All the whining in the world won't alter the facts. Right now, without a start up with very deep pockets, or a significant shift in the economic prospects of the Cardiff catchment, or a major change to pricing, Cardiff is going to be bumping along the bottom for the foreseeable.
But. Point 3 would be taken care of with a decent move on APD.... And the WG DO have the power to change the rate.... They can't abolish, but they can change the rate, even to zero. Compare factum, prescription charges.... And my alter ego has had some fun meetings this week with the people who move the levers on this one, not the opposition, but the people with the power.
Let me run an idea past you here. APD for a family of four leaving from BRS to say Orlando, is £300. If I were the flight or tour operator, and the CWL rate suddenly becomes zero, I would be writing to all my punters, apologising profusely, telling them that for operational reasons the flight now leaves from CWL, and here's £100 compensation.... Nice eh?
Watch this space, and listen to facts, not wild mad speculation.... And don't assume that the WG are a load of aviation hating lefties. They aren't.
TA
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The WAG to the best of my knowledge do not have devolved powers over APD, what has killed CWL is the current fuel price and lack of wealth in the catchment area, that not to say there isn't money around, just not enough people with it to make a year round jet operation viable.
BRS enjoys a critical mass in terms of airlines and destinations served and of course a far larger catchment area. Scrapping APD would make little change to CWL fate, the days of 9.99 tickets to EDI are over. Whilst scrapping APD on say long haul route where the planned ramp up of charges is greatest may tempt a few fringe airline, the lack of a Cat3 ILS would deter route planners from a 5.30am arrival. With the best will in the world i can't see it happening.
BRS enjoys a critical mass in terms of airlines and destinations served and of course a far larger catchment area. Scrapping APD would make little change to CWL fate, the days of 9.99 tickets to EDI are over. Whilst scrapping APD on say long haul route where the planned ramp up of charges is greatest may tempt a few fringe airline, the lack of a Cat3 ILS would deter route planners from a 5.30am arrival. With the best will in the world i can't see it happening.
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Hello TwinAisle,
An intriguing post! You almost seem to be hinting that something might be imminent.
However, I am puzzled by your assertion that the WAG already has some powers over air passenger duty.
This certainly hasn't been made clear by the Assembly so far as I can discover.
You will know that the Holtham Commission, established by the previous First Minister, in its final report published last year made many recommendations about many matters including the suggestion that apd should be devolved to Wales 'if deemed useful'.
In recent months the present First Minister has mentioned apd (and other taxes) as something that might usefully be devolved to Wales and last month David Cameron, in an address ot the Assembly, confirmed the UK's government's intention to set up a commission similar to the Calman Commission on Scottish devolved affairs.
The Calman Commission recommended in 2009 that apd powers should be devolved to the Scottish Parliament, though that has not yet occurred.
Recently an all-party group of MPs on the Northern Ireland Affairs Committee recommended that apd should be abolished in Northern Ireland, something that has been brought into recent focus by the threats of Continental to withdraw their BFS-EWR service with Dublin just down the road benefiting from a new, far less onerous air tax regime.
So I am perplexed when, if Scotland and Northern Ireland don't have apd devolved powers and, from all I've read, neither does Wales, how is it possible for the Assembly to vary the apd rates at the moment?
If the WAG does already have the power to vary rates why haven't they done so in the past?
Incidentally, in your example getting £100 back when £300 has been spent on apd that then wouldn't have to be paid by the airline to government might be nice for the operator but certainly isn't for the poor old punter.
An intriguing post! You almost seem to be hinting that something might be imminent.
However, I am puzzled by your assertion that the WAG already has some powers over air passenger duty.
This certainly hasn't been made clear by the Assembly so far as I can discover.
You will know that the Holtham Commission, established by the previous First Minister, in its final report published last year made many recommendations about many matters including the suggestion that apd should be devolved to Wales 'if deemed useful'.
In recent months the present First Minister has mentioned apd (and other taxes) as something that might usefully be devolved to Wales and last month David Cameron, in an address ot the Assembly, confirmed the UK's government's intention to set up a commission similar to the Calman Commission on Scottish devolved affairs.
The Calman Commission recommended in 2009 that apd powers should be devolved to the Scottish Parliament, though that has not yet occurred.
Recently an all-party group of MPs on the Northern Ireland Affairs Committee recommended that apd should be abolished in Northern Ireland, something that has been brought into recent focus by the threats of Continental to withdraw their BFS-EWR service with Dublin just down the road benefiting from a new, far less onerous air tax regime.
So I am perplexed when, if Scotland and Northern Ireland don't have apd devolved powers and, from all I've read, neither does Wales, how is it possible for the Assembly to vary the apd rates at the moment?
If the WAG does already have the power to vary rates why haven't they done so in the past?
Incidentally, in your example getting £100 back when £300 has been spent on apd that then wouldn't have to be paid by the airline to government might be nice for the operator but certainly isn't for the poor old punter.
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Facelook with ref the lack of Cat 3 ILS this is wheighted against the weather stats for CWL. Having been in OPS for a couple of airlines based at CWL operating at CAT 1 level can count on my hands and feet the number of diverts away from Rhoose compared with the diverts I've seen from not only the runway on the hill but also from Heathrow and Gatwick.