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Old 22nd Jul 2011, 10:51
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I just wanted to add this to the thread.......

Last week I come back from Antalya with TCX, only to find the airplane half full...... Surely this is not a good sign...................
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Old 22nd Jul 2011, 11:07
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The only thing I can add is that the two weeks prior to the start of school holidays have always been the most difficult to sell, but, of course any empty seat is revenue lost.
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Old 22nd Jul 2011, 11:25
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There is only one thing worse than an empty seat, that's a full seat that you sold at a loss. MYT learnt that the hard way.
Load factor for the 180 seat a/c has been excellent for the last few week and I have rarely had more than 4 seats available on any flight since the end of May. I do hope that the margins are being held, as otherwise my opening comment is again the case.
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Old 22nd Jul 2011, 13:49
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contribution from an empty seat = nowt. You can't get lower than nowt....
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Old 22nd Jul 2011, 13:52
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Rather make nowt than a loss!
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Old 22nd Jul 2011, 14:12
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89kg over 4000 miles return trip equals wasted fuel, loss making pax cost airport duty both ends....so on and so forth.....just one of those wipes out the wafer thin profit on a profitable pax.
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Old 22nd Jul 2011, 16:14
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On the route development front, still no news on any new airlines :/. We just have to wait for the Berlin Route Conference in October, in which I hope CWL attend, they have a pretty bad attendance record at these events
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Old 22nd Jul 2011, 16:18
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There is news of a new airline ..... some kiddie has registered a domain www.skyblueairways.co.uk with all sorts of idiotic route ideas.
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Old 22nd Jul 2011, 16:47
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Helvetic's load factor up from 18% to 23% in June

That is the question ! However, it is continuing into this winter. I think it could be secretly subsidised by the Welsh Assembly Government as no airline would keep on selling the route after 5 months of low load factors ?

I would like to see it continue mind, although I believe and always have that the 'Bucket & Spade' routes are better from CWL, rather than cities.
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Old 22nd Jul 2011, 16:53
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Whens it being dropped then?
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Old 22nd Jul 2011, 17:17
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There is news of a new airline ..... some kiddie has registered a domain www.skyblueairways.co.uk with all sorts of idiotic route ideas.
He's taken the website down now.

although I believe and always have that the 'Bucket & Spade' routes are better from CWL, rather than cities.
If that's the case, your skyblue project would be better off proposing such bucket and space routes, rather than the city routes you have listed initially.
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Old 22nd Jul 2011, 17:24
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It would be great for a new start up to begin at Cardiff.. the gap has opened from BMI Baby for this to happen surely......

Small startup airline like Eastern Airways, Air Wales (when it was around) etc... I don't see why the Welsh Government wouldn't get behind a new airline HA!!!!!
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Old 22nd Jul 2011, 17:36
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I dont think they would Chrisy08. As much as I would have liked them to get behind Sky Blue Airways, which I proposed but that's all I received was a ticking off by people on here and to be honest I wouldn't really know where to start, hence the reason why i took it down. I would of course appreciate some people to help me as I paid a ground breaking £52 for that domain :L
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Old 22nd Jul 2011, 21:41
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£52? Nice big investment. So where's the other £10m coming from ?
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Old 22nd Jul 2011, 22:21
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TCX at different times during the year use the aircraft in Glasgow during the Scottish Peak holidays.
The past few weeks the aircraft positioned to GLA, operated the outbound flight then came direct back to CWL with pax on board, and vice versa later on - operated out of with CWL pax then back to GLA with pax and pos back to CWL. This may have something to do with the low load factor on your flight, as it may be only bringing a weeks worth of pax back once it started back up again.
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Old 22nd Jul 2011, 23:00
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£10m, JSCL? Having done rather a lot of airline business planning, for start ups and existing carriers, I would suggest a figure four times larger than that.

Benjiman, let me give you a little free advice - and since I make a living giving advice, you are getting a good deal out of me.

No-one but no-one is going to talk to you about starting an airline. I have in the past worked with some remarkably strong management teams, with centuries of airline management experience between them, and even they find it hard to raise capital. Right now, virtually no-one is investing in start ups. No-one will be investing in a Cardiff start up. You are going to be asking someone to trust you with some £40-50m of their money, you have no experience, and on the website you put together you admitted that you couldnt do market research, write a business plan or analyse aircraft choice. Would YOU lend you that sort of money? Do you think the CAA will look at you twice as regards a post holder position?

Go and get a job in the industry, get some experience and track record, then come back to this. Right now, you're making yourself look foolish, I am sorry to say.

One last thought - be very careful when you choose a brand name. I would imagine that the good folks at Skyblue Aviation may have thoughts on your current one.... Home...

Btw, the speculation on the viability of routes based on load factor is meaningless unless you have a good idea of yields. That's airline financial management 101. I would also bet that WAG is not 'secretly subsidising' Helvetic, or anyone else. Do a google search on Ryanair, Sabena and Charleroi for a hint why I am so confident on this one...

TA
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Old 22nd Jul 2011, 23:08
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@TwinAisle

For the CWL Market, a £10M budget is realistic. Nice class B from the CAA and a bunch of 19 seat Jetstreams, because that's all CWL will need.
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Old 23rd Jul 2011, 00:31
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Have to agree with Twinaisle, as much as a lot of 17 year olds may dream about starting their own airline, you need to admit to yourself it's not going to happen. Just look at Martin Halstead, he tried and tried but still couldn't get off the ground. Do what he didn't and go out and get a job within the industry and get some experience, you can then come back to thinking about a start-up when you're in your 20's or 30's.

The setup you have described will easily need the 40m mentioned, if anything you should be looking at the 'tour operator' route of chartering an aircraft for a weekly or twice weekly flight to a holiday hotspot, that would need less capital.

Regardless of that though, you would no doubt have serious issues with Cardiff Airport, as has already been mentioned on here, Cardiff's talks with Jet2 and Monarch have not gone well, if two major UK carriers can't get anywhere with Cardiff what chance has a new start up got.
I know personally that Cardiff have recently fallen out with one of the biggest UK 'holiday extra' providers who work with most UK airports and airlines. Cardiff's management seem hell bent on pushing away any prospective business and until that changes Cardiff is going to continue the downward trend.
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Old 23rd Jul 2011, 08:22
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No Surveys here. Certainly without asking. Mods
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Old 23rd Jul 2011, 08:40
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Benjiman, are you reading ANYTHING people are posting on this forum?

Your survey I am afraid will reveal nothing - it is not the deep and quantitative analysis that investors require. Your sample is now corrupted in statistical terms, since you have invited a biased audience (the folks on here!) - the man and woman in the street who will need to buy tickets will not take part.

Sorry - but really, go and work in the business for a few years. Please.

JSCL - in all my professional life, and business plans for probably 100 airlines by now, I have NEVER seen anyone make any money with a fleet of 19 seaters... Type B licenses are fine for air taxi work, PSO fulfilment and a few other high yield activities, but for scheduled operations on routes more than 40 mins? No chance. I'll stick to my estimate of £40m minimum.

TA
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