Have to say this, but too many on here, and another place that I shan't name, are looking at this from the wrong end.
From an airport point of view, a case must be built why a certain route will prosper, and why that route will prosper more than an existing route of the airline, after all costs of setting the route up are amortised.
BUT from an airline standpoint?
Consider an airline, let's call them Prop2 for the sake of argument. They don't serve Cardiff, but run five 737s out of Grantchester, Oldcastle and Glasburgh, serving some 30 routes. They know, in absolute detail, the financials of these routes, and are confident that given they can only operate 30 routes with their existing fleet, they have chosen the optimum 30 routes. Why on earth would they drop one of their 30 best routes, and take a punt on a new base and a new route out of Cardiff?
Answer - they won't.
Why on earth would they risk the significant capital investment in a sixth aircraft, plus the associated crew, maintenance and other costs, to build capacity, so that they can take a punt on Cardiff?
Answer - they won't. Certainly not in the current economic climate.
All the whining in the world won't alter the facts. Right now, without a start up with very deep pockets, or a significant shift in the economic prospects of the Cardiff catchment, or a major change to pricing, Cardiff is going to be bumping along the bottom for the foreseeable.
But. Point 3 would be taken care of with a decent move on APD.... And the WG DO have the power to change the rate.... They can't abolish, but they can change the rate, even to zero.
Compare factum, prescription charges.... And my alter ego has had some fun meetings this week with the people who move the levers on this one, not the opposition, but the people with the power.
Let me run an idea past you here. APD for a family of four leaving from BRS to say Orlando, is £300. If I were the flight or tour operator, and the CWL rate suddenly becomes zero, I would be writing to all my punters, apologising profusely, telling them that for operational reasons the flight now leaves from CWL, and here's £100 compensation.... Nice eh?
Watch this space, and listen to facts, not wild mad speculation.... And don't assume that the WG are a load of aviation hating lefties. They aren't.
TA