Aer Lingus - 5
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€150 in losses? Don't be optimistic, the realistic losses of Aer Lingus will be in the €200 million and above.
They are a loss-making airline. This is fact.
Unless Aer Lingus makes drastic cuts NOW, they will not be here in 24 months time.
The best sign of this, is the Airbus order they have put on hold...
I do want Aer Lingus to survive, it just is unlikely. I wonder if the second merger with Ryanair was a mistake...
They are a loss-making airline. This is fact.
Unless Aer Lingus makes drastic cuts NOW, they will not be here in 24 months time.
The best sign of this, is the Airbus order they have put on hold...
I do want Aer Lingus to survive, it just is unlikely. I wonder if the second merger with Ryanair was a mistake...
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Can you provide any justification for that figure?
My figure at least comes from company guidance for revenue and a knowledge of how fuel expenses and other expenses are likely to change year on year.
Or are you just taking last year's figure and adding a bit? In which case, do you have any idea of the difference between pre-tax profit/loss, operating profit/loss and total profit/loss?
Seriously, you can do damage to a company's reputation by posting spurious guesses about their finances, so you'd want to have some idea of why you think that figure is likely.
My figure at least comes from company guidance for revenue and a knowledge of how fuel expenses and other expenses are likely to change year on year.
Or are you just taking last year's figure and adding a bit? In which case, do you have any idea of the difference between pre-tax profit/loss, operating profit/loss and total profit/loss?
Seriously, you can do damage to a company's reputation by posting spurious guesses about their finances, so you'd want to have some idea of why you think that figure is likely.
840
As said couple of weeks ago your figures are not unrealistic and don't see bankruptcy at this present moment in time, its probably got a 5% probability attached to it or about 2% more than FR probability of the same thing.
New boss is there to cut costs and assumming he does as planned and no strike in 2010 then they have a good chance of surviving, only problem is they have burned their cash in surviving which is the real crime.
As said couple of weeks ago your figures are not unrealistic and don't see bankruptcy at this present moment in time, its probably got a 5% probability attached to it or about 2% more than FR probability of the same thing.
New boss is there to cut costs and assumming he does as planned and no strike in 2010 then they have a good chance of surviving, only problem is they have burned their cash in surviving which is the real crime.
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I respectfully hope some of you are on the Ryanair books for your services here contributing to this thread. If not some of the regular contributers are bordering on being obsessed with the company and the promotion of their demise. It's the middle of summer. Go for a walk. Clear your heads and enjoy life. It's not really worth the anguish.
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FutureCC I know you're a Ryanair fan boy but be careful you don't try and talk a company down. As someone with a little more experience in business than you, it's not as black and white as you believe and there are other options which we have not arrived at yet. God gave you two ears and one mouth for a reason sir.
There are a lot of people's jobs riding on this and virtually none of them would be saved by merging with Ryanair. A little reading on what MOL did during the Buzz takeover might open your eyes on that score. They don't want Aer Lingus, they want them out of the way. Very easy to juggle some of your hundred of new Boeing deliveries and get shot of the Airbuses. The A330s are a hotch potch of specifications which again is anathema to Ryanair, result Ryanair is the surviving carrier and the competition is gone.
If you're such a big fan of the Ryanair business model why are you advocating the BA approach for the Irish travelling public? Hub them all through one airport miles away? The reason FR does so well is they give the public close to home and cheap options. Can't have it both ways.
There are a lot of people's jobs riding on this and virtually none of them would be saved by merging with Ryanair. A little reading on what MOL did during the Buzz takeover might open your eyes on that score. They don't want Aer Lingus, they want them out of the way. Very easy to juggle some of your hundred of new Boeing deliveries and get shot of the Airbuses. The A330s are a hotch potch of specifications which again is anathema to Ryanair, result Ryanair is the surviving carrier and the competition is gone.
SkipnessOneEcho, I know I am only 17 - but I feel in a time like this (don't forget Aer Lingus are fast approaching the bottom of the barrel in cash) Irish tourists can drive to Dublin (or bus, train etc) to catch a flight to the US.
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Aer Lingus are running out of cash, as they have said? It appears that they are approaching bankruptcy.
Unless Aer Lingus makes drastic cuts NOW, they will not be here in 24 months time.
Its still amazing to hear the Ryanair briggade proclaiming how Aer Lingus is going bankrupt because its losing money when Ryanair posted a bigger losss last year than Aer Lingus did (Ryanair posted a €169M loss last year while Aer Lingus posted a €120M loss)
Difference between EI and FR last year was EI had to use cash resources to fund its losses and was committing 20% of its cash to get rid of staff, FR generated cash as the majority of the loss related to writing down the Aer Lingus shareholding which has no effect on cash as its already paid for.
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This is getting a bit tiresome! Yes, everyone knows that EI - like many airlines in the world - has problems; it's quite likely that it will make a significant loss this year, but that, unfortunately, is the nature of the airline business right now. It has to trim back, which it has tried to do, to some extent and hopefully when Mr. Mueller comes on board, the long awaited "future size & shape" project will be finalised.
We will see more cuts; probably a few of the A320s will go back to their lessors, some outstanding orders revised and quite possibly, the introduction of a smaller type.
They know they're in trouble; they're not going to stand still.
Incidentally, one of EI's old 332s, EI-EWR, is due to join an Indonesian carrier, Batavia Air, from next month, flying from CGK to Jeddah.
JetPhotos.Net Photo » EI-EWR (CN: 330) Aer Lingus Airbus A330-202 by John Fitzpatrick
We will see more cuts; probably a few of the A320s will go back to their lessors, some outstanding orders revised and quite possibly, the introduction of a smaller type.
They know they're in trouble; they're not going to stand still.
Incidentally, one of EI's old 332s, EI-EWR, is due to join an Indonesian carrier, Batavia Air, from next month, flying from CGK to Jeddah.
JetPhotos.Net Photo » EI-EWR (CN: 330) Aer Lingus Airbus A330-202 by John Fitzpatrick
And this is the reason that professional pilots dont read or contribrute to this thread anymore. It has been hijacked by spotters and accountants with nothing else to do in summer except bitch at each other. Give us a break guys and take it to another site that loves that sort of thing.
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Some people need to do a little research before making wild, inaccurate accusations.
As has been pointed out above, EI will not run out of cash anytime soon, and will have adequate time to cut costs and re-organise the business in a way which should ensure the company remains viable in the long-term. Whether this involves launching bases in Europe/focusing on long-haul/joining an alliance/merging etc remains to be seen.
You've obviously little experience of the EI short-haul product either. The inflight product is by no means s***. It's a very consistent product - comfortable seats, good BOB offering and friendly CC, what more do you expect on a short flight to the UK/Europe?
The average EI LF in 2008 was 72.8%, not my idea of a "low load factor". Loads on l/h have been pretty dire I'll admit, but should improve with the winter cutbacks due to reduced capacity.
They are indeed cuts, and quite significant cuts at that. The culling of 3 long-haul routes should not be taken lightly.
You haven't met him. This is an internet forum.
But I will say Aer Lingus is just going to run out of cash, as the product is s***. High costs and low load-factors - I don't think it takes a business-man to work out where they are heading.
You've obviously little experience of the EI short-haul product either. The inflight product is by no means s***. It's a very consistent product - comfortable seats, good BOB offering and friendly CC, what more do you expect on a short flight to the UK/Europe?
The average EI LF in 2008 was 72.8%, not my idea of a "low load factor". Loads on l/h have been pretty dire I'll admit, but should improve with the winter cutbacks due to reduced capacity.
3 routes and a few aircraft out are not exactly cuts?
I have never ever met anyone so arrogant and ignorant in my life
Last edited by EI320; 31st Jul 2009 at 19:00.
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FutureCC, cool it young man or you will alienate the very people you are relying on. They don't have to give you advice and you do not have to take it. However, some have been around the block a few more times than you have.
The secret to getting the info you want is to be subtle and not defensive. Think about it. Btw, abuse of any kind is not permitted on PPRuNe but, more importantly, it will get you bad marks.
AA&R mods.
The secret to getting the info you want is to be subtle and not defensive. Think about it. Btw, abuse of any kind is not permitted on PPRuNe but, more importantly, it will get you bad marks.
AA&R mods.
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I am very sorry if I blew a gasket there, I simply felt as if I wasn't worth enough to voice an opinion.
I am deeply sorry for my remark to ASFKAP.
I have no experience in the industry, I am just a passenger who wants to work on-board and takes an interest in aircraft and airlines.
For what it is worth, Aer Lingus probably will survive. The new CEO will turn things around.
But the cuts will have to be severe enough to turn it all around, this will be ruthless - but in good cause!
But what do I know? I'm just a 17 year old wannabee.
I am deeply sorry for my remark to ASFKAP.
I have no experience in the industry, I am just a passenger who wants to work on-board and takes an interest in aircraft and airlines.
For what it is worth, Aer Lingus probably will survive. The new CEO will turn things around.
But the cuts will have to be severe enough to turn it all around, this will be ruthless - but in good cause!
But what do I know? I'm just a 17 year old wannabee.
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Renegotiation of long haul fleet deliveries
EI has reached agreement with Airbus and lessors:
Aer Lingus Group Plc UK Regulatory Announcement: Statement re Long Haul Fleet
Basically, the two oldest aircraft, DUB and JFK, will leave the fleet later this year and March 2010, while a new A333 will be delivered in April. The second new A330 for delivery next year will be delivered in 2013 and the first two A350s will be delivered in 2015.
That said, EI will have the ability to convert orders A330s due for delivery after 2013 to A350s, if it so chooses.
Aer Lingus Group Plc UK Regulatory Announcement: Statement re Long Haul Fleet
Basically, the two oldest aircraft, DUB and JFK, will leave the fleet later this year and March 2010, while a new A333 will be delivered in April. The second new A330 for delivery next year will be delivered in 2013 and the first two A350s will be delivered in 2015.
That said, EI will have the ability to convert orders A330s due for delivery after 2013 to A350s, if it so chooses.
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Looks like EI-EAV will be staying with EI for the time being.
We still await news of changes - if any - to their short haul fleet; are negotiations going on with regard to that separately? I had understood that some of the older aircraft would be returned when their leases expired.
We still await news of changes - if any - to their short haul fleet; are negotiations going on with regard to that separately? I had understood that some of the older aircraft would be returned when their leases expired.
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Future CC,
Are you aware of the severe and ruthless changes that took place in EI during WW tenure? You were only about 8 or 9 at the time however I was in my early 20s and had only a few years earlier started my career with EI just like you are hoping to do with Ryanair. Those changes were significant and often life changing for those it affected. I will not say they were unnecessary but they fundamentally changed that airline beyond all recognition and indeed many good good and mightly experienced people left the airline as a result!!! I myself left during the time and now find myself back with WW who followed me to BA..IRONY!
Now, your comments I do not believe are based on your informed experiences but are just sweeping statements with little substance. Yes EI are in a bad way but so are many other airlines including BA, Virgin, BMI, AF/KLM to name but a few. Whether any of them will succumb to the bank managers is yet to be seen but please appreciate that your comments are unhelpful and do nothing for your argument.
Not here attacking you, I am just hoping you realise that it is important to be informed before talking out of turn! The people in Aer Lingus both old and new have worked very bloody hard to keep that airline afloat and the very fact that they survived when the likes of Sabena and Swissair failed is tantamount to that regardless of what some critics may claim. It is a great airline, with some great people in it, its only problem is that it is yet to secure a strong forward thinking leader (they have finally managed to shake the leash that was the Irish government off their backs) willing to build the airline up on its strengths of which there are many!
Now I could question your total determination to work for FR but alas, I think I shall allow you to learn from your own mistakes on that one! LOL!
Are you aware of the severe and ruthless changes that took place in EI during WW tenure? You were only about 8 or 9 at the time however I was in my early 20s and had only a few years earlier started my career with EI just like you are hoping to do with Ryanair. Those changes were significant and often life changing for those it affected. I will not say they were unnecessary but they fundamentally changed that airline beyond all recognition and indeed many good good and mightly experienced people left the airline as a result!!! I myself left during the time and now find myself back with WW who followed me to BA..IRONY!
Now, your comments I do not believe are based on your informed experiences but are just sweeping statements with little substance. Yes EI are in a bad way but so are many other airlines including BA, Virgin, BMI, AF/KLM to name but a few. Whether any of them will succumb to the bank managers is yet to be seen but please appreciate that your comments are unhelpful and do nothing for your argument.
Not here attacking you, I am just hoping you realise that it is important to be informed before talking out of turn! The people in Aer Lingus both old and new have worked very bloody hard to keep that airline afloat and the very fact that they survived when the likes of Sabena and Swissair failed is tantamount to that regardless of what some critics may claim. It is a great airline, with some great people in it, its only problem is that it is yet to secure a strong forward thinking leader (they have finally managed to shake the leash that was the Irish government off their backs) willing to build the airline up on its strengths of which there are many!
Now I could question your total determination to work for FR but alas, I think I shall allow you to learn from your own mistakes on that one! LOL!
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Skipness One Echo Quote:
Those 321's take 212 pax but they must be expensive to run now.
why do you say that? Surely needed for the higher volume routes like Heathrow.
Those 321's take 212 pax but they must be expensive to run now.
why do you say that? Surely needed for the higher volume routes like Heathrow.
i agree...just wondering. they have em a while.