Aer Lingus - 5
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They may be filled, or nearly so, on certain routes in the summer, but it's just that, in the summer, and only then in June-August. The problem is flying them around with 130 pax in winter. The other is with regard to load factor is that the new strategy is no longer to simply chase volumes, but to maximise yield. To this end, filling all 212 seats at any price may not be the desired plan.
There are other cost factors in play also: 1 less cabin crew per flight, lower landing charges and airways charges (both weight based) as well as the maintenance and fuel issues.
That said, this debate is fairly moot as the decision is made and at least 4 of them will be going in the spring as the new A320's are delivered.
There are other cost factors in play also: 1 less cabin crew per flight, lower landing charges and airways charges (both weight based) as well as the maintenance and fuel issues.
That said, this debate is fairly moot as the decision is made and at least 4 of them will be going in the spring as the new A320's are delivered.
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Interesting points again Alt Crz Green,
But I'm not sure that it's exclusively June-August, I have seen them filled on other routes at Christmas and other peak times.
With regard to the policies being pursued - this should always have been the case with regard to Aer Lingus. Seeking Revenue maximisation based upon ever increased volumes only works in an expansionary economic environment or in the context of the FR model - which only works for a period of years anyway before declining as growth slows.
Yield maximisation is the only way to stabilise or to attempt to grow the ''top line'' in the current environment.
I assume with a like for like replacement taking place with 4 units during early next year, that there may be some moves towards increased frequencies to compensate for capacity reductions on very profitable routes such as AGP, at peak times anyway...
EI Premier
But I'm not sure that it's exclusively June-August, I have seen them filled on other routes at Christmas and other peak times.
With regard to the policies being pursued - this should always have been the case with regard to Aer Lingus. Seeking Revenue maximisation based upon ever increased volumes only works in an expansionary economic environment or in the context of the FR model - which only works for a period of years anyway before declining as growth slows.
Yield maximisation is the only way to stabilise or to attempt to grow the ''top line'' in the current environment.
I assume with a like for like replacement taking place with 4 units during early next year, that there may be some moves towards increased frequencies to compensate for capacity reductions on very profitable routes such as AGP, at peak times anyway...
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Quote: "That said, this debate is fairly moot as the decision is made and at least 4 of them will be going in the spring as the new A320's are delivered."
So, the previous rumour about the older A320s going is untrue? I guess that if the A320s make better economic sense than A321s, then the decision is clear.
What about the Embraer 195 rumours, or A319s? Presumably EI is awaiting the outcome of the RE examinership?
So, the previous rumour about the older A320s going is untrue? I guess that if the A320s make better economic sense than A321s, then the decision is clear.
What about the Embraer 195 rumours, or A319s? Presumably EI is awaiting the outcome of the RE examinership?
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Aer Lingus A320/321
Filling the plane is not everything, nor is age. % of seats taken is one indication of possible profitability but if the amount the 200+ people are paying is not enough to cover the operating cost then the % is irrelevant. Its how much each passenger is paying that is the key.
Turning to age, 12 years is not old -the measure has to include flying hours and the number of cycles. The BA 737/400's are around 20 years old and will be with us for a while yet. The first A320's (ex Air Inter/Air France and BA/Caledonian are just starting to retire at 20+. Jet2 aircraft are getting on but it is doing ok financially.
The rumour about the Emb195 is interesting - Aer Lingus went to one short haul aircraft type as that was its low cost model but then it is no longer calling itself a low cost carrier in the Southwest/Ryanair mould. EI has a link with Jet Blue and people thought it was mad to introduce the Emb190 in addition to a large A320 fleet but it seems to be working, similarly Virgin Blue when it added the Emb to its B738 fleet.
My question is what about the A320/321 and long haul? We had B738 doing Stansted to the US and Air Canada doing Eastern Canada to LHR with A319 this summer.
Turning to age, 12 years is not old -the measure has to include flying hours and the number of cycles. The BA 737/400's are around 20 years old and will be with us for a while yet. The first A320's (ex Air Inter/Air France and BA/Caledonian are just starting to retire at 20+. Jet2 aircraft are getting on but it is doing ok financially.
The rumour about the Emb195 is interesting - Aer Lingus went to one short haul aircraft type as that was its low cost model but then it is no longer calling itself a low cost carrier in the Southwest/Ryanair mould. EI has a link with Jet Blue and people thought it was mad to introduce the Emb190 in addition to a large A320 fleet but it seems to be working, similarly Virgin Blue when it added the Emb to its B738 fleet.
My question is what about the A320/321 and long haul? We had B738 doing Stansted to the US and Air Canada doing Eastern Canada to LHR with A319 this summer.
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The A321 has proven to be very useful in cases of Irr-Ops, for example during the Volcanic Ash crisis etc. There is a demand for it on certain routes on the EI network - for example Malaga during the summer (even with an A330 operating the morning flight) along with AMS, BRU etc.
However next winter the route goes to 16 weekly and next summer to 18 weekly so I expect far fewer upgrades to an A321.
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A number of very sound opinions here. The 321 may be seen as too old but I wouldn't consider it to be. A number of routes this winter will see an increase in frequency like BRU and AMS. There are routes that could always do with an higher capacity. EI PREMIER makes some very valid points ...... as it seem in my opinion as always .... and so does Charlie Roy and Clareview. Question I would like to ask though have there been announcements to retire the older 320's immediately or will there be an upgrade of the remaining a/craft? I've heard rumours of upgrading the interiors of the 320's to have video monitors. Don't think we're talking seatback monitors but more like overhead units. Anyone got any backup on those rumours and are they happening any time soon?
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EI Fleet
EISNN,
From memory EIN have four more A320's due in the coming years (2011 and 2012 I think?). Unless there's a significant improvement in the Irish economy I believe these aircraft will be used to replace earlier A320's in the fleet that could be returned to lessors. If the initial A320's were on finance leases then 10 years is a normal term so we could see the older ones sold to pay down the lease and then the new ones brought into the fleet. I can't see a case for Aer Lingus adding significant additional capacity at the moment so the only route to maintain current capacity is to retire aircraft from the fleet.
In my opinion, the A321 does have a place in the Aer Lingus fleet. The aircraft is very useful on routes which can deliver high loads at a decent yield e.g. sun destinations in summer and some other European capitals at certain times of the day (e.g. first flight to AMS, LHR etc.). From an operation perspective, there is relatively little incremental cost in operating the A321 relative to the A320. It's a common crew rating, common spares holding and the entire fleet is CFM56-5B powered. Having the A321 in the fleet gives Aer Lingus a degree of flexibility in so far as it has the ability to deploy additional capacity on a route rapidly in response to changes in the booking or yield profile.
I think EI are some way away from making a regional aircraft purchase (i.e. E-Series). I believe Hr. Muller is taking the correct approach and stabilising the company in the short term and quietly developing a strategy for the future. I think he'd view the acquisition of a new aircraft as a distraction that's not needed at this point in time. That said, were Aer Arann to go to the wall, that would leave a gaping hole in the hub and spoke strategy so they'd need a strategy to fill that. Perhaps a son/daughter of Aer Arann??
All the best anyways,
P2C
From memory EIN have four more A320's due in the coming years (2011 and 2012 I think?). Unless there's a significant improvement in the Irish economy I believe these aircraft will be used to replace earlier A320's in the fleet that could be returned to lessors. If the initial A320's were on finance leases then 10 years is a normal term so we could see the older ones sold to pay down the lease and then the new ones brought into the fleet. I can't see a case for Aer Lingus adding significant additional capacity at the moment so the only route to maintain current capacity is to retire aircraft from the fleet.
In my opinion, the A321 does have a place in the Aer Lingus fleet. The aircraft is very useful on routes which can deliver high loads at a decent yield e.g. sun destinations in summer and some other European capitals at certain times of the day (e.g. first flight to AMS, LHR etc.). From an operation perspective, there is relatively little incremental cost in operating the A321 relative to the A320. It's a common crew rating, common spares holding and the entire fleet is CFM56-5B powered. Having the A321 in the fleet gives Aer Lingus a degree of flexibility in so far as it has the ability to deploy additional capacity on a route rapidly in response to changes in the booking or yield profile.
I think EI are some way away from making a regional aircraft purchase (i.e. E-Series). I believe Hr. Muller is taking the correct approach and stabilising the company in the short term and quietly developing a strategy for the future. I think he'd view the acquisition of a new aircraft as a distraction that's not needed at this point in time. That said, were Aer Arann to go to the wall, that would leave a gaping hole in the hub and spoke strategy so they'd need a strategy to fill that. Perhaps a son/daughter of Aer Arann??
All the best anyways,
P2C
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P2C, the 320 and 321 engines are not compatible, being different models. The A320 is a -5B4 and the 321 is a -5B3, with different thurst ratings, 27,000lbs and 32,000lbs respectively. Other parts are different too, for example the mean gear has bigger tyres and brakes on the 321, the fuel system is a bit different, the cockpit displays are different, the radar is different, etc etc. Minor but they all add up.
The age of an aeroplane in itself is not the issue, the problem lies in the increased maintenance costs, which increase proportional to age.
The bottom line is that a decision will come down to whether any benefits in flexibility/capacity provided by the A321 are outweighed by cheaper running costs of 320's. The word is that this is indeed the case and so the 321's are going.
The age of an aeroplane in itself is not the issue, the problem lies in the increased maintenance costs, which increase proportional to age.
The bottom line is that a decision will come down to whether any benefits in flexibility/capacity provided by the A321 are outweighed by cheaper running costs of 320's. The word is that this is indeed the case and so the 321's are going.
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EI looking at 120 seaters
Yes, I know it's the Indo, which isn't known for its accuracy, but it does ring true:
Aer Lingus starts pricing smaller craft for route rejig - Irish, Business - Independent.ie
Aer Lingus starts pricing smaller craft for route rejig - Irish, Business - Independent.ie
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Alt Crz Green, your posts are spot on but cockpit and radar are the same as the older 320's so de facto there in reality is no difference.......
Re the 15% difference in fuel flows......felt like 20% and when heavy guzzled the stuff.
Re the 15% difference in fuel flows......felt like 20% and when heavy guzzled the stuff.
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I think, with regard to new aircraft purchase, with the Bombardier C series coming customer side in 2014, an airline like EI would be mad to jump into the Embraer bed at this stage.
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True enough about cockpits/radar of the older A320s Bearcat. I forgot to add that the A321 cockpit clock is however unique! They certainly guzzle the fuel alright, in fact I would say closer to 25% more in the hold when heavy, I reckon on 40kg per minute in the 320 and 50kg in the 321.
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More on the EI/Regional Jet issue in Flight:
Aer Lingus looks at potential for regional jets
Recently, LH claimed that the costs for its Bombardier C-series aircraft would be even less than those for the A380 and 748I. While one can make a strong case for the A319, due to its commonality with the larger models, if EI is going to go down the regional jet road, it needs to be looking at an aircraft which will have costs far better than the FR 738s; whether EI can wait until 2013/14 is another thing, but perhaps Bombardier will be willing to provide CRJ-900/1000s as an interim solution?
Aer Lingus looks at potential for regional jets
Recently, LH claimed that the costs for its Bombardier C-series aircraft would be even less than those for the A380 and 748I. While one can make a strong case for the A319, due to its commonality with the larger models, if EI is going to go down the regional jet road, it needs to be looking at an aircraft which will have costs far better than the FR 738s; whether EI can wait until 2013/14 is another thing, but perhaps Bombardier will be willing to provide CRJ-900/1000s as an interim solution?
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slightly off topic, but I took part in the customer seating trials for Swiss for their upcoming C-Series deliveries....that was interesting. It looks likely they will go for that funny staggered 3 plus 3 type with the fold up seat. (IŽll find a picture)
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There was talk of the E190's in the Herald today. However I have a question.
If EI couldnt make the 146 in its day work, why then will the thinner routes work with an E190. EI went away from the 146's and Fokker 50 on commuter and regional routes to go all airbus. Would sense (I know it doesnt exist in EI) not dictate that if they want to go down to smaller aircraft, stick with airbus and go with the A318? What is the book value on a A318 v E190?
Incidentally, and this is me talking with ZERO knowledge, could a 321 not be reconfigured for a TA operation much like the 757? Those thin routes for CO are very successful with the 75.
If EI couldnt make the 146 in its day work, why then will the thinner routes work with an E190. EI went away from the 146's and Fokker 50 on commuter and regional routes to go all airbus. Would sense (I know it doesnt exist in EI) not dictate that if they want to go down to smaller aircraft, stick with airbus and go with the A318? What is the book value on a A318 v E190?
Incidentally, and this is me talking with ZERO knowledge, could a 321 not be reconfigured for a TA operation much like the 757? Those thin routes for CO are very successful with the 75.
Last edited by airbourne; 7th Sep 2010 at 21:27.
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Hi Airbourne, I think regional jets have come on along way since the 146, The new jet are far more reliable and burn less fuel than the 146 ever did. The cost price off a E190 to and A318 is nearly half. Its great having a common fleet but when the unit cost is that far away from one another they have to have a look at them. Out of interest does Aer Lingus still have there commuter AOC?
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Not only is purchase price of the E190 compared to the A318 an issue but also the operating costs. The A318 is not a regional airliner but a shrink of the A320. It is Airbus's worst seller whereas the E190 has been a great success.
As I said previously, EI is not now selling itself as a low cost carrier. Broadly similar airlines in the US (Jetblue and Airtran) both have 2 type short haul fleets as does Virgin blue in Australia, Nikki in Austria and of course Jet2 and Flybe also go for 2 types. The economies of the E190 over the 146 are demonstrated by Flybe, Swiss and Lufthanse all moving as quickly as they could to the E190.
As I said previously, EI is not now selling itself as a low cost carrier. Broadly similar airlines in the US (Jetblue and Airtran) both have 2 type short haul fleets as does Virgin blue in Australia, Nikki in Austria and of course Jet2 and Flybe also go for 2 types. The economies of the E190 over the 146 are demonstrated by Flybe, Swiss and Lufthanse all moving as quickly as they could to the E190.
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Hey
I know this is hypothetical, but I think it could be interesting if Aer Lingus introduced an additional fleet type.
There was a headlong rush by both Walsh and Mannion to reduce EI to a 2 ac fleet, in an attempt to emmulate Ryanair. However, whilst Ryanair are big enough to make a 189 seater on thin routes, Aer Lingus clearly aren't.
I have said this before, and usually been castigated for it, but a smaller ac would make sense for EI. The extra costs in pilot training and compatibility are more then negated by low landing fees, better load factors, additional economic routes, lesser fuel burn, to name but a few!
The E195 and the C series have both been mentioned, however, its actually a great time to be looking at smaller jets as several models are in development. In addition to Embraer and Bombardier, Aer Lingus could look at the Mitsubishi MRJ (maybe too small) or riskier (but cheaper) bets like the Sukhoi Superjet or the ARJ from China. Also, Kawasaki are working on a new jet based on their new P-X maritime patrol platform.
I think the E195 would be a good bet, and Embraer may be happy to get more orders for this model as alot of airlines seem to prefer the E190 due to its extra range. On the other hand, if EI could even lease a few for a few years, the Bombardier C Series is available in approx 2014 (which might be a more fortuitious time for EI). Aer Lingus could be in a position to strike an excellent deal with Bombardier, because despite some large individual orders from Lufthansa and Republic the overall number of customers is still very small and much heralded orders from the Middle East have failed to materialise. So Bombardier would be delighted with an order from an established Company like EI! Its also worth considering the greater capacity of the C series and a rumoured 150 seat variant which could push single class capacity towards 170....!
Finally, with one additional ac type EI still only operate 3 types! Many airlines operate 4/5 types without problems as they are not Ryanair and must fit an ac to a route. And remember, in the past Aer Lingus operated 7/8 types at the one time as did all other major carriers!
C
I know this is hypothetical, but I think it could be interesting if Aer Lingus introduced an additional fleet type.
There was a headlong rush by both Walsh and Mannion to reduce EI to a 2 ac fleet, in an attempt to emmulate Ryanair. However, whilst Ryanair are big enough to make a 189 seater on thin routes, Aer Lingus clearly aren't.
I have said this before, and usually been castigated for it, but a smaller ac would make sense for EI. The extra costs in pilot training and compatibility are more then negated by low landing fees, better load factors, additional economic routes, lesser fuel burn, to name but a few!
The E195 and the C series have both been mentioned, however, its actually a great time to be looking at smaller jets as several models are in development. In addition to Embraer and Bombardier, Aer Lingus could look at the Mitsubishi MRJ (maybe too small) or riskier (but cheaper) bets like the Sukhoi Superjet or the ARJ from China. Also, Kawasaki are working on a new jet based on their new P-X maritime patrol platform.
I think the E195 would be a good bet, and Embraer may be happy to get more orders for this model as alot of airlines seem to prefer the E190 due to its extra range. On the other hand, if EI could even lease a few for a few years, the Bombardier C Series is available in approx 2014 (which might be a more fortuitious time for EI). Aer Lingus could be in a position to strike an excellent deal with Bombardier, because despite some large individual orders from Lufthansa and Republic the overall number of customers is still very small and much heralded orders from the Middle East have failed to materialise. So Bombardier would be delighted with an order from an established Company like EI! Its also worth considering the greater capacity of the C series and a rumoured 150 seat variant which could push single class capacity towards 170....!
Finally, with one additional ac type EI still only operate 3 types! Many airlines operate 4/5 types without problems as they are not Ryanair and must fit an ac to a route. And remember, in the past Aer Lingus operated 7/8 types at the one time as did all other major carriers!
C
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If EI enter the Regional Jet market I feel that it will need to be an airframe that can at least fly Dublin Malaga in one hop and the next question to my mind is will EI be happy with a 99 seater with just two cabin crew or opt for a 120 seater which would need the third cabin crew member increasing operating costs etc. Such an airframe would be a boon for both Cork and Shannon EI operations and maybe even more so than operations in Dublin?