Aer Lingus - 5
I'm not sure throwing money at the Gatwick operation is entirely sensible, taking on the likes of EZY.
However, givin that MOL has thrown a wobbly at MAN. There are some gaps in the MAN network & maybe some "thin" routes from DUB could be routed via MAN to help sustain them, & who knows, maybe even make some profit.(Vienna & Berlin would be nice.)
However, givin that MOL has thrown a wobbly at MAN. There are some gaps in the MAN network & maybe some "thin" routes from DUB could be routed via MAN to help sustain them, & who knows, maybe even make some profit.(Vienna & Berlin would be nice.)
Business 1-0-1; the simple question is this ... why would anyone want to buy EI?
FR has a reason; kill off a competitor they have been unable to dislodge. This has been blocked by the EU.
But owning EI makes precious little sense for any other European airline.
Certainly a number of smaller players could come together in a merger and effect some operational efficiencies (synergies in management speak) and EI could potential benefit from that.
But if your going to speculate on a takeover, then at least try to explain why the acquirer would bother.
JAS
FR has a reason; kill off a competitor they have been unable to dislodge. This has been blocked by the EU.
But owning EI makes precious little sense for any other European airline.
- EI is a small, peripheral operator, serving a small market and has historical and deeply embedded operational and work practice issues (and I include the management in that).
- The 'major' European airlines have their own issues and preserving their capital/cash is a priority, not splashing it on, at best, a minnow in the market.
- EI's home market is potentially the most damaged economy in the Eurozone right now, which will significantly effect its revenues for quite some time to come.
Certainly a number of smaller players could come together in a merger and effect some operational efficiencies (synergies in management speak) and EI could potential benefit from that.
But if your going to speculate on a takeover, then at least try to explain why the acquirer would bother.
JAS
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: UIP : 4° 10’ 0” W, 47° 58’ 0” N
Posts: 341
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Aer Lingus have 20 pairs of slots a day in operation. 10 for DUB, 5 for ORK, 3 for BFS and 2 for SNN. There aren't as many used on weekends due to lower demand etc. There are three/four other pairs of slots currently leased out to other airlines including BA and CO.
Join Date: Dec 2000
Location: on the golf course (Covid permitting)
Posts: 2,131
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Folks get real...
EI brings nothing to BA. The slots are shorthaul timings, which BA don't need.
The UK - Ireland market has very low yield, which is why BA withdrew years ago from LHR.
EI was useful in a OneWorld scenario for the feed to BA's LH network, they chose to withdraw.
EI is not worth diddlysquat to LH as it has more slots than it needs via BMI.
EI's only hope would appear to be through the Middle East or O'Leary or I really don't know.
EI brings nothing to BA. The slots are shorthaul timings, which BA don't need.
The UK - Ireland market has very low yield, which is why BA withdrew years ago from LHR.
EI was useful in a OneWorld scenario for the feed to BA's LH network, they chose to withdraw.
EI is not worth diddlysquat to LH as it has more slots than it needs via BMI.
EI's only hope would appear to be through the Middle East or O'Leary or I really don't know.
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Dre's mum's house
Posts: 1,432
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
And EI, like all the airlines, doesn't "own" the LHR slots, even though they trade them and count them as assets.
The slot allocators "own" the slots.
The slot allocators "own" the slots.
Airport Coordination Limited (ACL) is responsible for slot allocation, schedules facilitation and schedule data collection at a large number of varied airports and, in addition, provides a wide range of services to the aviation industry.
Slot allocation is a widely-recognised technique designed to balance the supply and demand for scarce airport capacity, in order to avoid unnecessary congestion and delays, through the issue of permissions for aircraft to land and take off at particular times.
Slot allocation is a widely-recognised technique designed to balance the supply and demand for scarce airport capacity, in order to avoid unnecessary congestion and delays, through the issue of permissions for aircraft to land and take off at particular times.
Someone had to say it!
Enter Sir Richard O'Branson to save the day.
Virgin 'Green' anyone?
Virgin 'Green' anyone?
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Isle of Man
Posts: 609
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Perhaps BAA should buy EI, shut down the LHR ops, sell the rest, and cancel the LHR slots to create a buffer in the movements schedule to cover inclement weather, radar outage, strike etc. And pigs will...
But..maybe BA should buy EI and negotiate the cancelation of the slots to create the buffer, which would enable BA to carry on ops (without inconveniencing their customers - the basic requirement of pax) in the event of said disruption.
And hey! No 3rd runway needed!
But..maybe BA should buy EI and negotiate the cancelation of the slots to create the buffer, which would enable BA to carry on ops (without inconveniencing their customers - the basic requirement of pax) in the event of said disruption.
And hey! No 3rd runway needed!
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Ireland nowadays
Posts: 1,440
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
It's burning cash at an alarming rate and will run out before the end of 2009.
Aer Lingus is not going to run out of cash before the end of the year. Even a quick scan of the accounts would tell you that. They have enough cash that they could operate to the end of the year without taking a single new passenger booking, never mind the 4 million that they can reasonable expect to take over the next 4 1/2 months.
Thread Starter
Join Date: Aug 1999
Location: Dublin, Ireland
Posts: 1,879
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
"My Money is on Etihad"
Don't see it happening; what would be in it for EY (or indeed EK or QR?)
"FR has a reason; kill off a competitor they have been unable to dislodge"
This is why I think we will not be seeing another FR bid for EI. Ask this simple question: what would you do if you were in MO'L's shoes?
Why expend all the effort and publicity on a bid you know is going to be rejected, either by EI or the EU?
The answer: wait ... increase the pressure, bit by bit. EI won't run out of cash this year and MO'L won't have his prize right away, but I'm convinced that he still has his eyes on EI. He will wait, up the pressure, until he is in a position to say to the govt (and other shareholders): "I'll pay €1 for your shareholding or it goes under; I'll keep the name alive, but that's it - massive job cuts; otherwise it's curtains". He won't do this publicly - at least not as far as the govt is concerned. He will simply bank on the govt being willing to choose the lesser of two evils: selling EI to FR, or letting it go under. And I can see MO'L being prepared to wait three or four years for this to happen.
Now, the question is: how does CM avoid this? The reality is that, regardless of the good load factors on s/h, yields are probably fairly poor. Is EI making a profit on short haul? If so, what kind of margins? Is this sustainable? Is it realistic for EI to expect to go head to head with FR, using only 320s; that's the bottom line? It's not just a question of downsizing to survive, but of avoiding being pushed out of key markets, as has happened in the UK. Many of these routes would still be sustainable with a smaller type and EI would be much better placed to compete with FR.
Do we know, for example, what FR's breakeven on the 738 is? Let's say, for argument's sake, that it needs to have around 90-100 pax for flight to be profitable. Now, if EI can have an aircraft that only needs about 40-50 pax for flight to be profitable, it's far less likely to be pushed off a route - and it can re-establish itself on major UK regional routes, which will be important to its efforts to develop a hub.
On long haul, it's going to need to seriously look at its operation, particularly its product - (is the kind of J class that it has - certainly the number of seats) sustainable in the current environment - better to have an aggressive low lost long haul (a la Air Asia/Jetstar) with a Premium Economy alternative. The market is certainly there for long haul operations ex-Ireland - and to much more markets than EI serves, but it's not going to achieve that potential in its current form.
Don't see it happening; what would be in it for EY (or indeed EK or QR?)
"FR has a reason; kill off a competitor they have been unable to dislodge"
This is why I think we will not be seeing another FR bid for EI. Ask this simple question: what would you do if you were in MO'L's shoes?
Why expend all the effort and publicity on a bid you know is going to be rejected, either by EI or the EU?
The answer: wait ... increase the pressure, bit by bit. EI won't run out of cash this year and MO'L won't have his prize right away, but I'm convinced that he still has his eyes on EI. He will wait, up the pressure, until he is in a position to say to the govt (and other shareholders): "I'll pay €1 for your shareholding or it goes under; I'll keep the name alive, but that's it - massive job cuts; otherwise it's curtains". He won't do this publicly - at least not as far as the govt is concerned. He will simply bank on the govt being willing to choose the lesser of two evils: selling EI to FR, or letting it go under. And I can see MO'L being prepared to wait three or four years for this to happen.
Now, the question is: how does CM avoid this? The reality is that, regardless of the good load factors on s/h, yields are probably fairly poor. Is EI making a profit on short haul? If so, what kind of margins? Is this sustainable? Is it realistic for EI to expect to go head to head with FR, using only 320s; that's the bottom line? It's not just a question of downsizing to survive, but of avoiding being pushed out of key markets, as has happened in the UK. Many of these routes would still be sustainable with a smaller type and EI would be much better placed to compete with FR.
Do we know, for example, what FR's breakeven on the 738 is? Let's say, for argument's sake, that it needs to have around 90-100 pax for flight to be profitable. Now, if EI can have an aircraft that only needs about 40-50 pax for flight to be profitable, it's far less likely to be pushed off a route - and it can re-establish itself on major UK regional routes, which will be important to its efforts to develop a hub.
On long haul, it's going to need to seriously look at its operation, particularly its product - (is the kind of J class that it has - certainly the number of seats) sustainable in the current environment - better to have an aggressive low lost long haul (a la Air Asia/Jetstar) with a Premium Economy alternative. The market is certainly there for long haul operations ex-Ireland - and to much more markets than EI serves, but it's not going to achieve that potential in its current form.
Join Date: Jun 1997
Location: 5530N
Posts: 845
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
as usual not.....same contributor was looking at a 30 year plan on a previous post where a 3 yr plan is at best the only show in town. I disagree that AL is a basket case based on the previous post vis a vee O'Leary etc. Yes he is a large thorn, but screwing the nails in the coffin here is at best niave......lets see post the interm results and the plan there after before we get our mourning suits out for the garden tea party at Gigginstown House.
Thread Starter
Join Date: Aug 1999
Location: Dublin, Ireland
Posts: 1,879
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Er ... no; if it's my post of the 15th you're talking about, I was actually quoting a previous poster.
I don't want to see nails hammered into EI's coffin; how can it be naive to try and (a) anticipate FR's possible options/plans and (b) EI's best response. That approach, to me, seems like common sense. FR is the single biggest threat to EI (and indeed to most carriers).
I don't want to see nails hammered into EI's coffin; how can it be naive to try and (a) anticipate FR's possible options/plans and (b) EI's best response. That approach, to me, seems like common sense. FR is the single biggest threat to EI (and indeed to most carriers).
Join Date: May 2007
Location: Dublin
Posts: 46
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Future of EI
I would certainly agree that FR is a huge threat to EI, in so far that it disrupts and interferes with the running of EI. I hope the EU finds this to be the case and force FR to reduce their shareholding
There is no way that the EU is going to allow FR to be the sole carrier(effectively) out of Dublin. The thought of having only FR to travel on, with their appalling service and complete indifference to their customers is a vista I can only fear.
The Government and staff shareholders would sell to the devil first.
EI can and will get thru this recession a fitter and stronger company.
There is no way that the EU is going to allow FR to be the sole carrier(effectively) out of Dublin. The thought of having only FR to travel on, with their appalling service and complete indifference to their customers is a vista I can only fear.
The Government and staff shareholders would sell to the devil first.
EI can and will get thru this recession a fitter and stronger company.
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: Northern Ireland
Posts: 2,781
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
There is no way that the EU is going to allow FR to be the sole carrier(effectively) out of Dublin. The thought of having only FR to travel on, with their appalling service and complete indifference to their customers is a vista I can only fear
I would agree that Aer Lingus has a major challenge ahead with loco competitors especially Ryanair at Dublin. Ryanair apart from being lower cost than EI, it could afford to burn cash in losses for alot longer than EI.
In making itself as similar as Ryanair as possible to be more competitive Aer Lingus has left itself so truly exposed. Aer Lingus needs to have strengths to lever. IE gets its act together and get good at stuff that Ryanair cant touch. EG 1 Shake up the long haul, make it a focus and point of difference, do a Air Asia style service on the atlantic and to this side of Asia. Offer a premium economy with the frills and sell low prices on the rest of the flight. Get smaller aircraft onto regional routes, I would agree with Akerosid on this fully. Flybe for me is a good example of an airline fit to compete with larger airlines and a small fuel efficient aircraft is the way to do it. Drive perception, costs and frequency.
Aer Lingus could cause some pain for Ryanair in this way.
I really like Aer Lingus and want to see them being around in 5 years but sadly right now where ever they turn there have a strong competitor to contend with. Ryanair and Easyjet.
Aer Lingus needs to be different than the pack with which it competes. The Irish perceive AL to be different ie in service terms but that has taken decades to build up and it will take a long time to build this up ex say LGW.