Ryanair - 6
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Ryanair built up their profits from /... people like me and similar.
Ryanair are steadily whittling that away. Because we get the same standad of service as those paying lower fares. If we are going to be messed /... that is a step towards the competition. If we continue to be laughed at when attending business meetings because we travelled Ryanair and get asked if we had to travel standing up, or had to pay for the toilet, that's a negative. /...
there are a lot of people in business suits on Ryanair. I doubt any of them paid anything like the low headine prices /... That's the market to lose.
Ryanair are steadily whittling that away. Because we get the same standad of service as those paying lower fares. If we are going to be messed /... that is a step towards the competition. If we continue to be laughed at when attending business meetings because we travelled Ryanair and get asked if we had to travel standing up, or had to pay for the toilet, that's a negative. /...
there are a lot of people in business suits on Ryanair. I doubt any of them paid anything like the low headine prices /... That's the market to lose.
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Eastern europeans returning home.
Taking Poland for example. Capacity has remained the same.
Italy the focus for much of Ryanair and easyJet’s expansion in last 12 months; Spanish flights up over 20% | anna.aero
Flights to Poland, which had been growing at a phenomenal rate in recent years, are virtually unchanged versus a year ago.
Join Date: Dec 2007
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Racedo,
" Thou protest too much.... "
I dont know whether Ryanair will continue to be world beaters, or whether a serious correction is on the way. Right now, either option is credible. The variables in this outcome are external to Ryanair. When the variables are external and out of your control, you dont expose yourself further to capital cost or investment, unless you're sure you can trade through, and control a bigger market share the other side. Long term debt net of repayments increased 206.5m to 2,604.9m Euro over the quarter. A very worrying fact, a more worrying trend. What is of serious concern to Ryanair shareholders is whether or not the current strategy is the correct strategy. The CEO has been very reliable earner for many a shareholder over the years, is this colouring their vision?
Trees dont grow to the sky. Reading your posts reminds me of many similar comments made by Irish Politicians, Irish Bankers, and Property developers during the dizzy heights of the Irish housing boom. Denial.
I'm not for one second saying its a sure thing Ryanair are bust, but I have taken my money out of Ryanair shares, and I will not return in the medium term.
Sorry to be so direct.
" Thou protest too much.... "
I dont know whether Ryanair will continue to be world beaters, or whether a serious correction is on the way. Right now, either option is credible. The variables in this outcome are external to Ryanair. When the variables are external and out of your control, you dont expose yourself further to capital cost or investment, unless you're sure you can trade through, and control a bigger market share the other side. Long term debt net of repayments increased 206.5m to 2,604.9m Euro over the quarter. A very worrying fact, a more worrying trend. What is of serious concern to Ryanair shareholders is whether or not the current strategy is the correct strategy. The CEO has been very reliable earner for many a shareholder over the years, is this colouring their vision?
Trees dont grow to the sky. Reading your posts reminds me of many similar comments made by Irish Politicians, Irish Bankers, and Property developers during the dizzy heights of the Irish housing boom. Denial.
I'm not for one second saying its a sure thing Ryanair are bust, but I have taken my money out of Ryanair shares, and I will not return in the medium term.
Sorry to be so direct.
Join Date: Feb 2005
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> the load factors on flights to/from Poland are HUGE
Mostly to UK/Ireland. Much to my surprise however, I also spotted quite good LF's between Poland and Spain (GRO). Not only the workforce traveling there, looks like a good sign for the future.
Mostly to UK/Ireland. Much to my surprise however, I also spotted quite good LF's between Poland and Spain (GRO). Not only the workforce traveling there, looks like a good sign for the future.
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The load factor was up in Q1 due to the timing of Easter. The average income per pax was down 13% and would have been down more if easter had not been in Q1 this year. Ryanair admit a 15-20% drop in income per pax is possible.
The have 16 more planes to pay compared to 3 months ago. come the winter they will have more parked then ever before. The business model need the assets to work very hard as every sector makes such a small income. They have gone past the point were the model works. cuts in fares to generate more traffic is pulling the price down so far that you make less income by being bigger. If we pull out of downturn the oil price will rise and kill the airline. If we stay in a downturn the yeald will keep going down to keep new pax flying.
The have 16 more planes to pay compared to 3 months ago. come the winter they will have more parked then ever before. The business model need the assets to work very hard as every sector makes such a small income. They have gone past the point were the model works. cuts in fares to generate more traffic is pulling the price down so far that you make less income by being bigger. If we pull out of downturn the oil price will rise and kill the airline. If we stay in a downturn the yeald will keep going down to keep new pax flying.
The load factor was up in Q1 due to the timing of Easter
So Easter existed in May and June as well then ????
The average income per pax was down 13% and would have been down more if easter had not been in Q1 this year.
Ryanair admit a 15-20% drop in income per pax is possible.
The have 16 more planes to pay compared to 3 months ago. come the winter they will have more parked then ever before. The business model need the assets to work very hard as every sector makes such a small income. They have gone past the point were the model works. cuts in fares to generate more traffic is pulling the price down so far that you make less income by being bigger. If we pull out of downturn the oil price will rise and kill the airline. If we stay in a downturn the yeald will keep going down to keep new pax flying.
Think you and crystal ball gazing don't get on.Perhaps if you bothered to look beyond your bias you might look at the almost 1000 new departures from Italy and Spain that have helped their passenger numbers but doubt you would see that.
Funny that they the only airline that seems to be making money in the downturn so in an upturn why would they stop doing it when they could allow fares to rise easily.
They make €9 profit per passenger which is quite decent return given few airlines are making a profit.
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If the oil price rises significantly we wont need to worry about the LoCo's as they will be mopping up after the legacy carriers go bust.
its a question of who has what in the bank, or assets to sell.
RYR's model has been good for years but I agree the deliveries of new aircraft may be a problem as the selling of the older 737-800's has slowed to a trickle.
RYR will be here long after others have been consigned to the scrap heap.
its a question of who has what in the bank, or assets to sell.
RYR's model has been good for years but I agree the deliveries of new aircraft may be a problem as the selling of the older 737-800's has slowed to a trickle.
RYR will be here long after others have been consigned to the scrap heap.
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Some posters on here have an almost psychotic dislike of this airline.
Logical thought processes seem beyond them.
£118m profit in a downturn - and they still go on.
Some people I guess like to moan for effect - they're on here thinking
everyone is waiting to read their comments on this or that.If you dont
like Ryanair dont fly with them - its simple!
You are the minority that will never be a majority because the FACTS
do not agree with your stance.
This airline has a European catchment area and as such it flies 60m
people around - so LOGIC would state that it must be doing something right.
MM
Logical thought processes seem beyond them.
£118m profit in a downturn - and they still go on.
Some people I guess like to moan for effect - they're on here thinking
everyone is waiting to read their comments on this or that.If you dont
like Ryanair dont fly with them - its simple!
You are the minority that will never be a majority because the FACTS
do not agree with your stance.
This airline has a European catchment area and as such it flies 60m
people around - so LOGIC would state that it must be doing something right.
MM
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The amount of spin that Ryanair puts out is immense so your "FACTS" are actually of course only really your opinions. There is little transparency where MOL is concerned! Ryanair will survive but when one sees Ryanair slashing routes from EDI and PIK and moving aircraft into new markets that will take some time to generate profits, one has to entertain doubts. They have an unprecedented number of new B737-800s coming into service expanding the airline greatly at a time of massive doubt in the industry. This business model depended on getting a good price for the used B737s that are to be sold on and the yield and load factors holding up.
Neither of these is proving to be the case. Ryanair had a shed load in the bank but they are moving out of loss making core markets into new markets that will take time to build up. There is real reason to be concerned as the mad dash for growth must plateau at some point. We shall see.
Whatever happens, the idea of everything being the fault of tax / government / local authority / EU / fairies / anyone else is wearing thin.
Neither of these is proving to be the case. Ryanair had a shed load in the bank but they are moving out of loss making core markets into new markets that will take time to build up. There is real reason to be concerned as the mad dash for growth must plateau at some point. We shall see.
Whatever happens, the idea of everything being the fault of tax / government / local authority / EU / fairies / anyone else is wearing thin.
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As a result we expect Q2 yields will be significantly lower than last year, at or even slightly above the minus 15% to 20% range previously guided. Based on this yield performance in H1 we expect the full year yield decline will be at or slightly more than minus 20% and accordingly, our full year net profit will be towards the lower end of the €200m to €300m range, previously guided.
Thats what RYR say about profits....that looks like marking down in my book...
Whenever it comes to offering guidance as to future profits to stock analysts and investors, they always provide a very pessimistic view of the future 12 months - and nobody can really prove that the Ryanair board were doing anything wrong in just expressing a cautious view of the world. It's worth listening in to the recorded conference calls, just to hear the tone that MOL and the Ryanair board adopt when questioned by stock analysts, compared to the public image they normally project !
They are very aware that if a company promises profit growth but fails to deliver, the investors punishes the company in question for it with a faill in the share price, so they are just trying to cover themselves. However, a company is meant to provide a *realistic* guide as to future profits, on which Ryanair are probably falling down.
MOL has been challenged by friendly stock analysts in the past on (for example) forecast passenger numbers for the next few months, and he has conceded that sales were not going as badly as he had suggested.
The Panel in Ireland should probably be picking up on this and expressing an opinion - but it's likely to be difficult to mount a formal case. The Irish financial regulatory authorities have more important things to deal with at the moment.
They are very aware that if a company promises profit growth but fails to deliver, the investors punishes the company in question for it with a faill in the share price, so they are just trying to cover themselves. However, a company is meant to provide a *realistic* guide as to future profits, on which Ryanair are probably falling down.
MOL has been challenged by friendly stock analysts in the past on (for example) forecast passenger numbers for the next few months, and he has conceded that sales were not going as badly as he had suggested.
The Panel in Ireland should probably be picking up on this and expressing an opinion - but it's likely to be difficult to mount a formal case. The Irish financial regulatory authorities have more important things to deal with at the moment.
This business model depended on getting a good price for the used B737s that are to be sold on and the yield and load factors holding up.
Neither of these is proving to be the case.
Neither of these is proving to be the case.
As of December / January RBS Aviation take back 16 737's that were a sale and lease back deal.
I try and find holes in the their strategy and there are a few but not many.
Moving into Spain and Italy when competition is collapsing seems a pretty decent strategy, Easyjet seem to agree as they doing the same thing.
DJ6
You are correct in your assessment as I feel they understate potential and then overdeliver but market prefers that.
If you deliver what you say then they happy but want more, deliver less without telling and they will punish very quickly.
Its difficult for any regulatory body to complain about a company that is cautious in stating potential. Frankly they more worried on the ones who overstate to prop up a share price.
You are correct in your assessment as I feel they understate potential and then overdeliver but market prefers that.
If you deliver what you say then they happy but want more, deliver less without telling and they will punish very quickly.
Its difficult for any regulatory body to complain about a company that is cautious in stating potential. Frankly they more worried on the ones who overstate to prop up a share price.
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They have gone past the point were the model works. cuts in fares to generate more traffic is pulling the price down so far that you make less income by being bigger. If we pull out of downturn the oil price will rise and kill the airline. If we stay in a downturn the yeald will keep going down to keep new pax flying.
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Mickeyman what part of what I said did you disagree with? Or are you just annoyed I disagree?
er racedo is this information in the public domain? Link please 
Either that or for someone who assures us he doesn't work for Ryanair you seem remarkably up to speed....
That IS a good price I agree given how heavily used and basic these 737s are.
So $30 Million is not a good price for a 7 year old 737 bought for probably $25 M or less ? What is the price they should be getting then.
As of December / January RBS Aviation take back 16 737's that were a sale and lease back deal.
As of December / January RBS Aviation take back 16 737's that were a sale and lease back deal.
Either that or for someone who assures us he doesn't work for Ryanair you seem remarkably up to speed....That IS a good price I agree given how heavily used and basic these 737s are.
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Isn't a discussion board for discussion rather than pontificating about who is qualified to comment? Ryanair will always attract vitriolic criticism because of its contempt for its customers and any publicity is good publicity approach. For all the talk of new bases I expect most of the planes not flying from Stansted, Edinburgh etc. will be sitting on the tarmac during the winter, but that will make lower losses than virtually giving the seats away.
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Easyjet can get 60 euros out of each pax when ryanair can only get 37 euros. Easyjet will have higher costs as if flys to better airports and does not cut things as much as Ryanair. Ryanair seems hell bent on making airtravel cheap and nasty. Ryanair will carry the most passengers but less and less of those with money. The stock market knows the model is braking.
I do thing ryanair is also going to find it very hard to get the good deals it once made. Areas that pumped millions into getter ryanair to build up routes are now to have no winter service. Ryanair air is also using less and less of the airports services. The airports just lose cash having ryanair moving in and driving out the other airlines.
I do thing ryanair is also going to find it very hard to get the good deals it once made. Areas that pumped millions into getter ryanair to build up routes are now to have no winter service. Ryanair air is also using less and less of the airports services. The airports just lose cash having ryanair moving in and driving out the other airlines.
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business experts
mickyman, it's a very slippery ground
Indeed, you can ask me if I ever happened to be as successful doing my businesses as MOL has been until now and I will not surprise you, I'll have to answer: no. Does that mean that I'm not entitled to express my opinions, to point out and criticize some obvious mistakes in "master's" approach? Let's face it, these planes having to stand on the tarmac are just a good confirmation: Ryanair business model is not versatile enough to be able to make use of the potential they already have. Every other explanation is just misleading - should we pretend we don't see it?
Indeed, you can ask me if I ever happened to be as successful doing my businesses as MOL has been until now and I will not surprise you, I'll have to answer: no. Does that mean that I'm not entitled to express my opinions, to point out and criticize some obvious mistakes in "master's" approach? Let's face it, these planes having to stand on the tarmac are just a good confirmation: Ryanair business model is not versatile enough to be able to make use of the potential they already have. Every other explanation is just misleading - should we pretend we don't see it?