Ryanair - 6
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FRAPORT, part-owner of HHN, has announced continuing losses for HHN today and said it would seek to triple airport charges in order to contain losses. It also did not rule out disposing of its stake in HHN if the airport continues to loose money.
Looks like just another battleground for MOL.....
Looks like just another battleground for MOL.....
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Cant really see Ryanair managing to pull of transatlantic flights, Its one thing to operate accross europe but another to operate long haul on cheap fares.
Look at the casualty over the past 20 odd years, Zoom, Oasis, Laker (twice) etc.
I dont mind FR for short haul, but ill stick to CO, DL, VS and the likes for my long-haul.
Look at the casualty over the past 20 odd years, Zoom, Oasis, Laker (twice) etc.
I dont mind FR for short haul, but ill stick to CO, DL, VS and the likes for my long-haul.
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The main factor which would prevent Ryanair offering more than a handful of really cheap tickets on any given flight is the fact that legacy carriers are only able to sell similarly-priced tickets because of the revenue they get from "premium" passengers on the same flights. These premium passengers are, in effect, subsidising those "at the back". I think Ryanair knows this - hence the talk about it, too, offering a Business Class product. Problem is, as others have noted, Ryanair would have some difficulty attracting "premium" passengers. It's not just the airline's image in the eyes of so many (undeserved to a great extent, in my view), but premium passengers typically demand a frequent flyer programme (with the opportunity to redeem miles for flights to attractive destinations), lounges and so on. Making these changes would radically alter the model which Ryanair has been using up to this point. Perhaps this is why any such operation would need a new airline.
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Ciampino Airport has been closed after the Ryanair plane overrun(?) the rwy this morning. None of the 166 pax were injured. It was probably the flight from HHN, some damage to the aircraft reported.
EDIT: Probably the the engine fire(?). Reports just coming.
EDIT: Probably the the engine fire(?). Reports just coming.
Last edited by eu01; 10th Nov 2008 at 08:15.
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The results of BBC1's Watchdog airline poll (the one started during the week its presenter claimed that tickets could not be bought at prices advertised by Ryanair; how come I am able to?) will be broadcast at 7.30 tonight. It will be interesting to see if their analysis of the data is in depth - e.g., whether there are any significant differences between frequent and infrequent fliers' answers (one of the questions being how many times have you flown in the last year).
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FUE
Following on from adam12345
FUE is bookable again from bhx 10-01-09 - 31-01-09 three weekly and from July onwards but just twice weekly.
I assume that this might alter when the full upload has taken place.
I trust that things are sorted or part-sorted with FUE airport.
Pete
FUE is bookable again from bhx 10-01-09 - 31-01-09 three weekly and from July onwards but just twice weekly.
I assume that this might alter when the full upload has taken place.
I trust that things are sorted or part-sorted with FUE airport.
Pete
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Oil prices hit a 20-month low Tuesday as Wall Street offered yet more evidence that consumers have gone into hiding.
[The crude] now costs 60 percent less per barrel than it did in mid-July.
Light, sweet crude for December delivery fell more than 5 percent, or $3.25, to $59.16 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. In earlier electronic trading, crude fell to $58.32, it's lowest point since March 2007.
Oil prices fell two days ahead of a report from the International Energy Agency, which some analysts expect will cut its 2009 oil demand forecast for the third consecutive month.
[The crude] now costs 60 percent less per barrel than it did in mid-July.
Light, sweet crude for December delivery fell more than 5 percent, or $3.25, to $59.16 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. In earlier electronic trading, crude fell to $58.32, it's lowest point since March 2007.
Oil prices fell two days ahead of a report from the International Energy Agency, which some analysts expect will cut its 2009 oil demand forecast for the third consecutive month.
Intro to Fuel Hedging
Undoing a fuel hedge depends on whether the airline has entered into futures (aka forward) or options.
With a future / forward, the airline commits to buying a certain amount of fuel, at a fixed price on a fixed date. To get out of this contract costs the same as the difference between the current market price and the agreed price - meaning that therer is no cost advantage in trying to undo the deal.
If last year you bought a 1-year future with a price of $80 per barrel, and the price 1 year later was $140, you have made $60 of profit. If instead the price has fallen to $65 1 year later, you've lost $15
Futures are simple, but there is a catch. Since they are listed on an exchange, if the price moves adversely for the airline, the airline is requires to deposit cash to the value of their cumulative losses. (They can take the money out again if the price moves favourably). When oil prices are volatile, this can hoover up cash very quickly, so may not be available to airlines that are financially weak or in some sort of bankruptcy proceedings.
Conversely, an option (technically a call option) is what it says - it gives the airline the right but not the obligation to buy a fixed amount of fuel at a fixed price on a fixed date. Come the originally agreed fixed date, the airline can choose whether to buy the fuel at the previously agreed price, or simply let the option lapse unused and just buy fuel at the prevailing market price.
Of course, this option is not free - you pay a premium for it, just like you do for car insurance. The maths is non-trivial, but one can easily work out an exact fair price. The price of the option depends on the volatility of oil prices - high volatility = high premium, low volatility = low premium
As an example, if current price = $60, option price in 1 year = $80, then a call option premium might cost about $7
There are all sorts of other ways an airline can hedge its fuel price - for example it might have set up a collar - whereby it agreed to pay no less than $80 but no more than $120. The more complex the deal, the more opportunity for a bank to charge a bigger fee.
Example:
Suppose 1 year ago you decided to hedge 1 year ahead.
1) If you had bought a future with a contract price of $110 per barrel, and the current price is $140, you have made $30 profit
2) If you had bought a future with a contract price of $110 per barrel, and the current price is $60, you have made a $50 loss
3) If you had bought an option with a contract price of $110 per barrel, and the current price is $140, you have made $30 profit less the value of the option premium
4) If you had bought an option with a contract price of $110 per barrel, and the current price is $60, you let the option lapse unused and lose just the value of the option premium.
Msg me if you want more info on this
With a future / forward, the airline commits to buying a certain amount of fuel, at a fixed price on a fixed date. To get out of this contract costs the same as the difference between the current market price and the agreed price - meaning that therer is no cost advantage in trying to undo the deal.
If last year you bought a 1-year future with a price of $80 per barrel, and the price 1 year later was $140, you have made $60 of profit. If instead the price has fallen to $65 1 year later, you've lost $15
Futures are simple, but there is a catch. Since they are listed on an exchange, if the price moves adversely for the airline, the airline is requires to deposit cash to the value of their cumulative losses. (They can take the money out again if the price moves favourably). When oil prices are volatile, this can hoover up cash very quickly, so may not be available to airlines that are financially weak or in some sort of bankruptcy proceedings.
Conversely, an option (technically a call option) is what it says - it gives the airline the right but not the obligation to buy a fixed amount of fuel at a fixed price on a fixed date. Come the originally agreed fixed date, the airline can choose whether to buy the fuel at the previously agreed price, or simply let the option lapse unused and just buy fuel at the prevailing market price.
Of course, this option is not free - you pay a premium for it, just like you do for car insurance. The maths is non-trivial, but one can easily work out an exact fair price. The price of the option depends on the volatility of oil prices - high volatility = high premium, low volatility = low premium
As an example, if current price = $60, option price in 1 year = $80, then a call option premium might cost about $7
There are all sorts of other ways an airline can hedge its fuel price - for example it might have set up a collar - whereby it agreed to pay no less than $80 but no more than $120. The more complex the deal, the more opportunity for a bank to charge a bigger fee.
Example:
Suppose 1 year ago you decided to hedge 1 year ahead.
1) If you had bought a future with a contract price of $110 per barrel, and the current price is $140, you have made $30 profit
2) If you had bought a future with a contract price of $110 per barrel, and the current price is $60, you have made a $50 loss
3) If you had bought an option with a contract price of $110 per barrel, and the current price is $140, you have made $30 profit less the value of the option premium
4) If you had bought an option with a contract price of $110 per barrel, and the current price is $60, you let the option lapse unused and lose just the value of the option premium.
Msg me if you want more info on this
Last edited by davidjohnson6; 11th Nov 2008 at 23:54. Reason: Correct futures payout
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Ryanair at Gatwick
Interestingly, Ryanair seems to have moved from the older spur at Gatwick (normally Gates 4,5 etc. - known to us regular travellers as 'Brighton' because that's the walk from the lounge feels like) to Gates 12-14 on the main pier. Almost feel like a normal human being now - fancy getting to use a travelator when on a Ryanair flight! Presume stands in the main area have been freed up by the demise of XL etc.
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Although I prefer Ryanair to easyJet, the ridiculously high fares for summer flights on the routes I use (compared with the fares for easyJet flights released recently) mean that Ryanair has lost my business.
No doubt, these Ryanair fares will decline in future but I couldn't take the risk of waiting as I needed to be certain of travelling on certain days.
Ryanair's loss, easyJet's gain....
(Does anyone know the logic of pitching fares so high only to reduce them later? Is Ryanair "testing the market" to see who will "bite"...?)
No doubt, these Ryanair fares will decline in future but I couldn't take the risk of waiting as I needed to be certain of travelling on certain days.
Ryanair's loss, easyJet's gain....
(Does anyone know the logic of pitching fares so high only to reduce them later? Is Ryanair "testing the market" to see who will "bite"...?)
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Ryanair seat pricing policy
Seat62K makes an interesting point.
6 weeks ago I booked 3 seats with RYR from DUB to AGP.
Departing 17 Dec and returning 29 Dec.
To-day RYR are offering the seats 95 Euro per PAX cheaper!!!
I.E. 30 Euro return compared to 125 Euro per pax.
And I thought considering the time of year 125 Euro return was good value.
Why are they down to 30 Euro return now. (Incidentally prices include all charges except credit card).
I also note on the day we return - 29 Dec - RYR has two flights scheduled from AGP to DUB within 10 minutes of each other. Must be heavy loads from DUB to AGP?
6 weeks ago I booked 3 seats with RYR from DUB to AGP.
Departing 17 Dec and returning 29 Dec.
To-day RYR are offering the seats 95 Euro per PAX cheaper!!!
I.E. 30 Euro return compared to 125 Euro per pax.
And I thought considering the time of year 125 Euro return was good value.
Why are they down to 30 Euro return now. (Incidentally prices include all charges except credit card).
I also note on the day we return - 29 Dec - RYR has two flights scheduled from AGP to DUB within 10 minutes of each other. Must be heavy loads from DUB to AGP?
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Come on lets be fair I bet your are is still cheap to the like of high fares airlines. The ting with DUB is that FR have a monopoly which is something MOL ates so much. Also a few weeks a go i flew to EMA-AGP and it was cheaper to fly EZY (on staff travel) than FR on staff travel becuase I had used up my blue tickets.
New Routes I have been told EMA-Malta
New Routes I have been told EMA-Malta