BIRMINGHAM - 4
Wasn't it always said that it takes two years to develop a new route?
So far the doom-mongers have given it 2 months before writing it off as history.
THY are not Ryanair or Easyjet - they are a full service airline that understands, or at least should understand, that route development takes time.
Hopefully the economic diificulties we are facing at the moment won't phase them too soon.
So far the doom-mongers have given it 2 months before writing it off as history.
THY are not Ryanair or Easyjet - they are a full service airline that understands, or at least should understand, that route development takes time.
Hopefully the economic diificulties we are facing at the moment won't phase them too soon.
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thy
Any idea on cargo loads? These are also a major source of income.
2 months is too short a time to be predicting doom and gloom. Hopefully things will pick up within the coming mmonths.
Paul
2 months is too short a time to be predicting doom and gloom. Hopefully things will pick up within the coming mmonths.
Paul
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Turkish 10 a week from MAN I think, I used them last year and the flight was packed in both directions, as previously said mainly connecting to long haul, I think I was the only one that stayed in Istanbul !!
As a transfer operation IST is in a very logical location for PAX and Cargo.
"Istanbul, where Europe meets Asia"
As a transfer operation IST is in a very logical location for PAX and Cargo.
"Istanbul, where Europe meets Asia"
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TK at BHX
As already said about TK @ BHX they are no loco operation. For example if they fill 40 seats at £130 is £5200
180 FR seats at a few pounds would generate far less revenue.
How many of these passengers have paid business class?
I do hope some of these guys putting information on here don't work for TK or its handling agent as I bet TK and BHX would be very unhappy at such commercially sensitive load information been paraded for all.
Give the route a chance. Turkey and other non Eurozone countries are likely to experience growth in the tourist market this summer so the route will grow in numbers. January and February are always quiet months for business and leisure travelers alike.
Daza
180 FR seats at a few pounds would generate far less revenue.
How many of these passengers have paid business class?
I do hope some of these guys putting information on here don't work for TK or its handling agent as I bet TK and BHX would be very unhappy at such commercially sensitive load information been paraded for all.
Give the route a chance. Turkey and other non Eurozone countries are likely to experience growth in the tourist market this summer so the route will grow in numbers. January and February are always quiet months for business and leisure travelers alike.
Daza
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I'm no doom-monger and have not written this route off. I couldn't care less what type of aircraft operates the flight, as long as TK prosper and thrive at BHX. Agreed: two months does not give enough time to analyse a routes performance (i'm sure the summer will see much higher pax figures) and that yes, TK are no bargain basement airline. However I still don't understand how carrying 40 or so pax a time (even if paying high yield fares) on an aircraft that can seat another 100 or so more can make money on the day given the cost of fuel, landing fees, crew, catering, baggage handling and all the other things I am sure I have forgotten to mention. If the yield is consistently high, can an airline really make profits on flying such low numbers of pax about on a long term basis?
I assume when looking very simplistically at the economics of a route that, along with fixed and variable costs per flight as well as yield per pax, any profit made during periods of high demand is 'counter balanced' against the costs of operating when demand is lower in order to decide if a route is tenable in the long term? How long will it take before TK have to make that decision at BHX? Then again, I don't work in aviation so what would I know? I would be grateful if one of you knowledgeable chaps out there could enlighten me further.
PS out of interest, how long did it take before EK a) started filling their flights and b) started making any money?
I assume when looking very simplistically at the economics of a route that, along with fixed and variable costs per flight as well as yield per pax, any profit made during periods of high demand is 'counter balanced' against the costs of operating when demand is lower in order to decide if a route is tenable in the long term? How long will it take before TK have to make that decision at BHX? Then again, I don't work in aviation so what would I know? I would be grateful if one of you knowledgeable chaps out there could enlighten me further.
PS out of interest, how long did it take before EK a) started filling their flights and b) started making any money?
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TK
Reported on another site as overbooked today on the outbound!!!!
Daza - CAA release their stats this week and the loads will be in the
public domain. Although it will only be an average it does not take
a genius to work out if they are making money or not.
I am sure TK will have budgeted for start-up losses and it is a case of them holding their nerve and lets hope they do.
GF - Will have a look at some old EK stats if I can find them but they
were pretty bad at times as well from memory.
I am sure summer will help no end with the TK loads and of course they are still expanding their empire which should help with connections.
Pete
Daza - CAA release their stats this week and the loads will be in the
public domain. Although it will only be an average it does not take
a genius to work out if they are making money or not.
I am sure TK will have budgeted for start-up losses and it is a case of them holding their nerve and lets hope they do.
GF - Will have a look at some old EK stats if I can find them but they
were pretty bad at times as well from memory.
I am sure summer will help no end with the TK loads and of course they are still expanding their empire which should help with connections.
Pete
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TK Today
21 in and 142 outbound so hopefully a sign of things to come. I also am not a gloom monger and hope services like these prosper as other airlines seeing TK and EK and the like making money ex BHX will then consider it for new base etc. My concern was that possible in the time of weakness in our economy 3 a week would have been a good starting point building up to weekly when the service picks up, which I am sure it will do.
Regards
Barry
Regards
Barry
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TK don`t seem to rush as I said it took 2 attempts to MAN to going and is now
averaging 120 per flight in December 2008 which is well up on Dec 2007 , therefore I expect them to stick with it and it will get there in the end
Ian
averaging 120 per flight in December 2008 which is well up on Dec 2007 , therefore I expect them to stick with it and it will get there in the end
Ian
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TK at BHX
I agree with what has been said and usually Barry and Gayfriendly are firm supporters of BHX and its services.
I will add again guys crude passenger numbers are no indication of revenue. If they were several routes ex BHX would have ended years ago. HAM comes to mind!
Daza
I will add again guys crude passenger numbers are no indication of revenue. If they were several routes ex BHX would have ended years ago. HAM comes to mind!
Daza
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TK sent all agents a update about luggage for all passengers stating that a 40KG plus hand luggage allowance, for all routes via IST.
Can't seem to see a whole lot of revenue generating cargo being carried when they offer this type of luggage allowance. TK will earn Bucket loads if they can offer decent connections to ISB & PEW via IST.
Can't seem to see a whole lot of revenue generating cargo being carried when they offer this type of luggage allowance. TK will earn Bucket loads if they can offer decent connections to ISB & PEW via IST.
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THY
Pricing/PAX numbers
Their web site and ebookers are quoting circa £200 return in August/September but £142 from STN and BA are £150 ex LHR.
Could explain numbers,also longhaul ads have only just hit the press so it will be 9 months until THY know whether the feeder plan will work.
IST as a weekend destination is mainly Spring/Autumn so early figures are misleading.
Their web site and ebookers are quoting circa £200 return in August/September but £142 from STN and BA are £150 ex LHR.
Could explain numbers,also longhaul ads have only just hit the press so it will be 9 months until THY know whether the feeder plan will work.
IST as a weekend destination is mainly Spring/Autumn so early figures are misleading.
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January pax down!
Part of the bhx press release and a nice piece of spin.
quote
"January Passenger Numbers
Birmingham Airport handled 561,648 travellers through its two terminals in January, including 469,412 scheduled passengers and 92,236 charter passengers.
The rolling 12-month figures up to the end of January show an increase of 4.2% year-on-year, and the Midlands continues to show great confidence in its local airport."
End of quote
The reality is that January was down from 576000 in 2008 (over 2%).
You could say compared to some airports this is quite good but when you think that there were four extra Ryanair 738's operating three
flights a day (less two BMI baby aircraft) you can still see that the bhx airlines took a major hit pax wise.
With 28 days in February this year compared to 29 last year and the snow disruption it is not going to make pretty reading this time next month either.
However as the TK loads have shown over the last few days, it has perked up with the half-term holidays.
Some proof of that are the Lufthansa 320's and 319's on Munich yesterday and today and Swiss 320's on two of three Zurich's today.
Pete
quote
"January Passenger Numbers
Birmingham Airport handled 561,648 travellers through its two terminals in January, including 469,412 scheduled passengers and 92,236 charter passengers.
The rolling 12-month figures up to the end of January show an increase of 4.2% year-on-year, and the Midlands continues to show great confidence in its local airport."
End of quote
The reality is that January was down from 576000 in 2008 (over 2%).
You could say compared to some airports this is quite good but when you think that there were four extra Ryanair 738's operating three
flights a day (less two BMI baby aircraft) you can still see that the bhx airlines took a major hit pax wise.
With 28 days in February this year compared to 29 last year and the snow disruption it is not going to make pretty reading this time next month either.
However as the TK loads have shown over the last few days, it has perked up with the half-term holidays.
Some proof of that are the Lufthansa 320's and 319's on Munich yesterday and today and Swiss 320's on two of three Zurich's today.
Pete
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What is it they say, there are lies, damned lies and statistics??!!
Nowhere near as well worded as the "Midlanders prefer to stay at home and watch Euro 2008 on their TV's" (or words to that effect to explain the drop in pax during the Euro footie tournament) but still very impressive to make an increase in pax numbers out of, as OP has pointed out, what is actually a decrease
It will be interesting to see what results other airports post, I think there will be many that see a much bigger drop than at BHX (did I read MAN was 10% or so down in Jan?)
Nowhere near as well worded as the "Midlanders prefer to stay at home and watch Euro 2008 on their TV's" (or words to that effect to explain the drop in pax during the Euro footie tournament) but still very impressive to make an increase in pax numbers out of, as OP has pointed out, what is actually a decrease
It will be interesting to see what results other airports post, I think there will be many that see a much bigger drop than at BHX (did I read MAN was 10% or so down in Jan?)
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Emirates
Reported on a couple of sites that EK37/8 is upgraded on five flights during the next couple of weeks to the 77W, which is very good news.
GayFriendly
Re a few posts back, EK posted 9870 pax in January 2001 the first full month, which is an average of 157 or 56% based on 62 sectors.
February 2001 posted 10608 or 189 per flight at 68% & March 11443, 185
pax or 66%.
First full year 121700 at an average of 167 pax or 60% based to 278 seats. Of course the last three and half months were affected by 9/11.
Not fantastic but certainly okay I would have thought. 2002 BTW saw
162394 at 222 pax or 80%, which is not bad at all.
As for the January pax at bhx, these were a lot better than most of the other UK airports that have reported thus far. I think Manchester and Stansted record double digit decreases. Yes I don't think anyone involved
or intested in bhx will forget that football excuse, quite unbelievable at the time but it was desparate times I suppose.
Pete
GayFriendly
Re a few posts back, EK posted 9870 pax in January 2001 the first full month, which is an average of 157 or 56% based on 62 sectors.
February 2001 posted 10608 or 189 per flight at 68% & March 11443, 185
pax or 66%.
First full year 121700 at an average of 167 pax or 60% based to 278 seats. Of course the last three and half months were affected by 9/11.
Not fantastic but certainly okay I would have thought. 2002 BTW saw
162394 at 222 pax or 80%, which is not bad at all.
As for the January pax at bhx, these were a lot better than most of the other UK airports that have reported thus far. I think Manchester and Stansted record double digit decreases. Yes I don't think anyone involved
or intested in bhx will forget that football excuse, quite unbelievable at the time but it was desparate times I suppose.
Pete
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The problem you have with the way you work the figures Pete is that if you strip out new airlines etc. there would never be an increase. No airport would increase it's figures without new airlines/routes. To say that without the Ryan air flights BHX would be down not up is not the real picture.
The only disappointment is not reaching that elusive 10 million Pax.
As for the TK a bit more publicity would not go amiss. Pushing the onward journeys more to Midlanders. Too many people still travel to the Heathrow etc for long haul.
Personally I would rather fly from Brum and change at where eve, than travel down to Heathrow.
The only disappointment is not reaching that elusive 10 million Pax.
As for the TK a bit more publicity would not go amiss. Pushing the onward journeys more to Midlanders. Too many people still travel to the Heathrow etc for long haul.
Personally I would rather fly from Brum and change at where eve, than travel down to Heathrow.
Personally I would rather fly from Brum and change at where eve, than travel down to Heathrow.
Shame BMI don't fly to BHX like they used to years ago.
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Hi Phil....
They are still there. I moved one on from in front of a Lufthansa a couple of days ago.
Two have gone to the big den in the sky.....
Problem we have is, each time one is removed it does not take long for another to take it's place.
Watching the chase seems to cheer up all concerned. Some of the banter with Pilots is quite amusing....
Not to forget how dangerous they are around the runway....
They are still there. I moved one on from in front of a Lufthansa a couple of days ago.
Two have gone to the big den in the sky.....
Problem we have is, each time one is removed it does not take long for another to take it's place.
Watching the chase seems to cheer up all concerned. Some of the banter with Pilots is quite amusing....
Not to forget how dangerous they are around the runway....
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AA to ORD
Been doing the rounds today. With a winter start date using one of the 752 being transferred onto the international routes. Rumour has it that this route plus GLA-ORD are part of the crew hand back procedure (not sure wether this is right wording) and are therefore scheduled to start in the winter. Would be a massive coup to get this especially with US starting soon.
Regards
Barry
Regards
Barry