BIRMINGHAM - 4
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I think you it hit on the head MUFC_Fan.
Loads may be 100% and cheaper than others but that means probably very poor yields. Result aircraft can be used elsewhere with lower load factors but better yields.
Loads may be 100% and cheaper than others but that means probably very poor yields. Result aircraft can be used elsewhere with lower load factors but better yields.
Join Date: Feb 2005
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Pull Outs
More of a concern than the US air ( 5 months in the year service ) is the potential loss of 6 based summer baby aircraft. Most of the routes are covered by other operators but for the poor punter wanting to travel from the local airport watch the fares rise.
6 based units is alot to replace, easyjet appear not interested in the Midlands, Jet 2 are up the road, ZB not into large expansion. that only leaves one operator and I am not convinced regarding thier relationship with BHX.
No matter how you look at it BHX is still struggling to match the aircraft movements and passenger levels of 2005, of the major regionals it must be the only one in that position.
The bottom line of the balance sheet will determine if the shareholders are happy.
Centre cities
6 based units is alot to replace, easyjet appear not interested in the Midlands, Jet 2 are up the road, ZB not into large expansion. that only leaves one operator and I am not convinced regarding thier relationship with BHX.
No matter how you look at it BHX is still struggling to match the aircraft movements and passenger levels of 2005, of the major regionals it must be the only one in that position.
The bottom line of the balance sheet will determine if the shareholders are happy.
Centre cities
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US Air & BMI Baby
Just for the record the US Air figures were (based on 175 seats): -
May 3449 pax 28 flights at 123 per flight 70% Load Factor
June 5622 pax 44 flights at 128 per flight 73% Load Factor
July 5679 pax 44 flights at 129 per flight 74% load actor
August 7181 pax 46 flights at 156 per flight 89% load factor
September 5599 pax 42 flights at 133 per flight 76% load factor.
Without even going into yields I would suggest that the pax figures are
a little low except for August and considering their fares seemed
on average lower than Continental this is possibly part of the reason why a second seasonal was declined.
I monitored fares for May/June this year and next year and although
they were never basement bucket on their website, I have no idea what seats were off-loaded to agents and at what cost or how well business class was patronised by full-fare paying pax.
BMI Baby
Hopefully it won't go as far as a base closure but if the schedule
calls for 20 aircraft fleet-wide with 15 in service now and possibly
13 by next summer if leases are not renewed, it is inevitable that
at least one airport will lose out unless LH ship aircraft over. However
with the 4th November meeting it does not look like good news.
Loads at present have picked up on most of their BHX routes and
despite the heavy "sales" pitch for this winter, fares have crept up
significantly but hopefully some routes will survive.
Pete
May 3449 pax 28 flights at 123 per flight 70% Load Factor
June 5622 pax 44 flights at 128 per flight 73% Load Factor
July 5679 pax 44 flights at 129 per flight 74% load actor
August 7181 pax 46 flights at 156 per flight 89% load factor
September 5599 pax 42 flights at 133 per flight 76% load factor.
Without even going into yields I would suggest that the pax figures are
a little low except for August and considering their fares seemed
on average lower than Continental this is possibly part of the reason why a second seasonal was declined.
I monitored fares for May/June this year and next year and although
they were never basement bucket on their website, I have no idea what seats were off-loaded to agents and at what cost or how well business class was patronised by full-fare paying pax.
BMI Baby
Hopefully it won't go as far as a base closure but if the schedule
calls for 20 aircraft fleet-wide with 15 in service now and possibly
13 by next summer if leases are not renewed, it is inevitable that
at least one airport will lose out unless LH ship aircraft over. However
with the 4th November meeting it does not look like good news.
Loads at present have picked up on most of their BHX routes and
despite the heavy "sales" pitch for this winter, fares have crept up
significantly but hopefully some routes will survive.
Pete
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GFG,
Not sure what your motivation to travel / final destination is, but if I was heading to Philly from Brum, I'd fly to EWR with CO and then take Amtrak - afaik, just over an hour. Cheaper local trains also available.
Of all the US destinations which could be served direct from BHX, PHL would be well down my own shopping list, and I would guess that these high loads were from relatively low yielding connection traffic.
Not sure what your motivation to travel / final destination is, but if I was heading to Philly from Brum, I'd fly to EWR with CO and then take Amtrak - afaik, just over an hour. Cheaper local trains also available.
Of all the US destinations which could be served direct from BHX, PHL would be well down my own shopping list, and I would guess that these high loads were from relatively low yielding connection traffic.
Last edited by jabird; 29th Oct 2009 at 21:29. Reason: typo
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Thompson Flights
I have just noticed that there are no flights available from the midlands to fue on there site this winter in fact the only flights i can see are from Man /Stansted and Gatwick or are there holidays selling that well they are holding on to them for holiday sales
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Fue
Even worse the Thomson Wed service is a downgrade to a 73H
and in December it is consolidated on to the Thomas Cook.
Don't Thomas Cook sell seat only on the Saturday FUE?
A pity ZB didn't go for Sat and Wed but probably a tad risky
this winter.
Pete
and in December it is consolidated on to the Thomas Cook.
Don't Thomas Cook sell seat only on the Saturday FUE?
A pity ZB didn't go for Sat and Wed but probably a tad risky
this winter.
Pete
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Philly
A shame that this route is going. I used US from MAN last year and transiting PHL was quick, straightforward and the staff were pleasant enough. The only problem I had was severe storms delaying my flight to Charlotte. Friend's who have transited NYC airports speak less favourably of their own experiences.
jabird - good point about the rail connection from EWR to Philadelphia. It is less than 100 miles between the cities. Its also handy for Trenton and even Baltimore and DC, although the fastest trains - Acela Express - don't call at EWR station.
I guess ,with US making stringent cutbacks, yields decided the fate of this service.
jabird - good point about the rail connection from EWR to Philadelphia. It is less than 100 miles between the cities. Its also handy for Trenton and even Baltimore and DC, although the fastest trains - Acela Express - don't call at EWR station.
I guess ,with US making stringent cutbacks, yields decided the fate of this service.
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BMI Baby
Have been reading lots of (admittedly unsubstantiated) rumours on other threads about the future (or lack of it) of BMI Baby at BHX. With a whole load of new routes announced from EMA (including some former ones operated from BHX) and a Union meeting on Wed my intuition tells me it ain't going to be good news for BHX........has anyone else heard something more concrete about this? What a difference a few years makes, BHX was once the leading baby base. If they do depart for good I hope BHX have something a bit more substantial than a press release stating that they 'are in talks with other carriers'
If you look back at the BMI and BMI Baby threads they are littered with "big meetings", dire warnings and heaven only knows what else - most of which so far as I recall have come to nought, or be damp squibbs. This week's may be different but we'll have to wait and see.
As regards a BHX future without Baby there are several possible scenarios. Baby these days is little more than a bucket and spade airline from BHX. The business network, such as it is / was is cut to shreds. Without them FlyBe would benefit from improved yields on domestics, as would KLM on AMS. The bucket and spade void could well be fill at least in part by Monarch Scheduled, and I would imagine that Ryanair would be keen fit pick up slack, just to keep Monarch on their toes. But there's absolutely nothing, apart from the expansion at EMA to suggest that Baby will leave.
Another likely outcome may be that Easyjet will move in on BHX, perhaps as a result opening the opportunity for more business orientated routes being opened - e.g. Berlin, where they already have a substantial operation.
BHX problem is that yet again in this recession, it has been extremely hard hit, as it is still extremely reliant on manufacturing, metal bashing industries that were in decline even before 2009 happened, the local population has less to spend on leisure. Looking more broadly, sterling has gone for a ball of chalk against the euro, and that makes the leisure market even weaker. Interestingly, the traditional business routes are holding up reasonably well despite the economic situation - not too many cutback there (yet).
This winter, and I would suggest Summer 2010 are going to be tough for all airports, at least those outside London, but despite everything BHX still has a good core network of services to the major European centres - not forgetting the long haul connections to the Far East - which is where the important growth will come from in years to come.
As regards a BHX future without Baby there are several possible scenarios. Baby these days is little more than a bucket and spade airline from BHX. The business network, such as it is / was is cut to shreds. Without them FlyBe would benefit from improved yields on domestics, as would KLM on AMS. The bucket and spade void could well be fill at least in part by Monarch Scheduled, and I would imagine that Ryanair would be keen fit pick up slack, just to keep Monarch on their toes. But there's absolutely nothing, apart from the expansion at EMA to suggest that Baby will leave.
Another likely outcome may be that Easyjet will move in on BHX, perhaps as a result opening the opportunity for more business orientated routes being opened - e.g. Berlin, where they already have a substantial operation.
BHX problem is that yet again in this recession, it has been extremely hard hit, as it is still extremely reliant on manufacturing, metal bashing industries that were in decline even before 2009 happened, the local population has less to spend on leisure. Looking more broadly, sterling has gone for a ball of chalk against the euro, and that makes the leisure market even weaker. Interestingly, the traditional business routes are holding up reasonably well despite the economic situation - not too many cutback there (yet).
This winter, and I would suggest Summer 2010 are going to be tough for all airports, at least those outside London, but despite everything BHX still has a good core network of services to the major European centres - not forgetting the long haul connections to the Far East - which is where the important growth will come from in years to come.
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Bmibaby and BHX
All
Well I am gonna add what I beleive will happen with WW at Bhx. I think they will stay as they are until the summer and then reduce to 3 based units operating the following schedule:
1)BFS - 2HR+ROUTE - BFS - MED ROUTE
2)AMS - MED ROUTE - AMS - MED ROUTE
3)NOC - 2 HOUR+ROUTE - MED ROUTE
Then bring in regional on the domestics to both GLA and EDI increasing frequency to fit business travellers similar to ABZ, possible 3 a day.
I beleive the crews will then be duel based with EMA and BHX operating where reqd.
Best regards
Baz
Well I am gonna add what I beleive will happen with WW at Bhx. I think they will stay as they are until the summer and then reduce to 3 based units operating the following schedule:
1)BFS - 2HR+ROUTE - BFS - MED ROUTE
2)AMS - MED ROUTE - AMS - MED ROUTE
3)NOC - 2 HOUR+ROUTE - MED ROUTE
Then bring in regional on the domestics to both GLA and EDI increasing frequency to fit business travellers similar to ABZ, possible 3 a day.
I beleive the crews will then be duel based with EMA and BHX operating where reqd.
Best regards
Baz
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Bhx the main/leading base?
In terms of aircraft maybe but lets be honest, bhx has never come up with the goods has it? eight aircraft that never actually made it to eight, poor returns on the weekend break city routes which were cut last year.
All backed up by redundancies at bhx last year, in fact not any real redundancies at ema last year just a few FOs who were put in base in the few months previous from BHX!
Ema has always been the most profitable base in the company, fact! Now whether or not the grand expansion goes the same way next year in EMA we will have to wait and see?
So forced base moves to EMA is hardly a bad deal and probably the best outcome we could wish for on wednesday!
In terms of aircraft maybe but lets be honest, bhx has never come up with the goods has it? eight aircraft that never actually made it to eight, poor returns on the weekend break city routes which were cut last year.
All backed up by redundancies at bhx last year, in fact not any real redundancies at ema last year just a few FOs who were put in base in the few months previous from BHX!
Ema has always been the most profitable base in the company, fact! Now whether or not the grand expansion goes the same way next year in EMA we will have to wait and see?
So forced base moves to EMA is hardly a bad deal and probably the best outcome we could wish for on wednesday!
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Well it is a well known fact in easyjet as told in our buisness brief that there were 2 bases under consideration this year birmingham and rome; they chose rome, so surely if baby go then this would leave the door wide open 4 easy???
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Baby BHX
In real terms what does BHX loose with no Baby. Almost every route is covered by a competitor already, some by 2.
OK, It looses 6 based aircraft and the crews will be required to move, one would hope not far only 40 miles or so up the M42.
If demand is there Monarch, Ryanair and Flybe could increase capacity on thier services making up for some of the lost rotations.
The real routes that BHX wanted, Rome, Lisbon, Madrid and the like had already gone.
Would rather see them stay but not a disaster if they dont.
As for a super base at EMA, I thought that they wernt setting the world on fire there which is why they opened the BHX base in the first place.
As much a I like EMA a location for a super base I think not.
What is the information quoted that says they are the most profitable base, or perhaps should that be lost the least amount of money base.
Centre cities
OK, It looses 6 based aircraft and the crews will be required to move, one would hope not far only 40 miles or so up the M42.
If demand is there Monarch, Ryanair and Flybe could increase capacity on thier services making up for some of the lost rotations.
The real routes that BHX wanted, Rome, Lisbon, Madrid and the like had already gone.
Would rather see them stay but not a disaster if they dont.
As for a super base at EMA, I thought that they wernt setting the world on fire there which is why they opened the BHX base in the first place.
As much a I like EMA a location for a super base I think not.
What is the information quoted that says they are the most profitable base, or perhaps should that be lost the least amount of money base.
Centre cities
Last edited by Centre cities; 2nd Nov 2009 at 16:14. Reason: Spellcheck
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BMI Baby
sjm
Some bold claims for an airline that does not publish any results let
alone individual bases, are we to assume you are Baby management
and have inside knowledge and seen the actual figures?
quote
"poor returns on the weekend break city routes which were cut last year."
end of quote.
I can't believe that there was not more to this, as I monitored the fares on a regular basis before they were pulled and they were never bargain basement, yet loads were running between 70-90% year round.
The CAA stats don't lie, so I would say it was not lack of demand and lets face it, before the routes started the number crunchers within the airline would have done their homework on associated cost, wouldn't they?
If it was based on projected fuel costs then fair enough as they were
on the climb (although the were not at their peak) but poor advance bookings were blamed six months prior and that is just an insult, as very few people book city breaks that far in advance.
Although if Baby say they are now struggling at BHX, I for one would not question that statement but maybe their explanations as to why.
Pete
Some bold claims for an airline that does not publish any results let
alone individual bases, are we to assume you are Baby management
and have inside knowledge and seen the actual figures?
quote
"poor returns on the weekend break city routes which were cut last year."
end of quote.
I can't believe that there was not more to this, as I monitored the fares on a regular basis before they were pulled and they were never bargain basement, yet loads were running between 70-90% year round.
The CAA stats don't lie, so I would say it was not lack of demand and lets face it, before the routes started the number crunchers within the airline would have done their homework on associated cost, wouldn't they?
If it was based on projected fuel costs then fair enough as they were
on the climb (although the were not at their peak) but poor advance bookings were blamed six months prior and that is just an insult, as very few people book city breaks that far in advance.
Although if Baby say they are now struggling at BHX, I for one would not question that statement but maybe their explanations as to why.
Pete
Last edited by OltonPete; 2nd Nov 2009 at 17:46. Reason: spelling
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"Most of the routes are covered by other operators but for the poor punter wanting to travel from the local airport watch the fares rise".
.............to more realistic prices, perhaps?!
.............to more realistic prices, perhaps?!
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BMI Baby
Initial reports are a cutting of 5 aircraft from fleet for 2010 and a focus on "core profitable operations". I can't help but think BHX will see a big reduction in flights and that the 'super base' and new routes were announced at EMA ahead of this meeting in preparation for todays official announcements. One poster has quoted just 2 based a/c for BHX next summer so perhaps 5 or so routes perhaps with some W Flights using EMA based a/c - trouble is which ones?? Baby face competition on nearly all from BHX!!! At least the base has not been announced as closed as strongly rumoured. Overall though seems like Baby has put most of its eggs in the EMA basket and BHX will now not play a big part in its future plans.
Good luck to those currently at BHX with Baby as it seems they will bear the brunt of the job losses announced today
Good luck to those currently at BHX with Baby as it seems they will bear the brunt of the job losses announced today
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BBC News - BmiBaby
Up to 158 staff at low-cost airline bmibaby face losing their jobs under a restructuring programme. An airport spokesperson said 54 pilot and 82 cabin crew positions at Birmingham, Manchester and Cardiff airports were "at risk of redundancy".
The airline also said it was reducing its number of aircraft from 17 to 12 next year.
Managing director Crawford Rix said the industry was experiencing record losses and action had to be taken.
Another 22 management and support positions at the firm's head office at Castle Donington in Derby are also at risk.
It is thought at least 66 pilots and cabin crew at Birmingham will be affected as well as 25 positions lost at Cardiff, out of a total staff of 87.
The firm said it was too early to say which services would be cut.
It also said the restructuring could lead to additional services at East Midlands Airport next year and the creation of 10 pilot and 15 cabin crew positions.
Mr Rix said efforts had to be focused on routes and services that the company felt was the best fit for its business.
The firm said discussions had been started with staff and union representatives with a view to minimising job losses where possible.
The airline also said it was reducing its number of aircraft from 17 to 12 next year.
Managing director Crawford Rix said the industry was experiencing record losses and action had to be taken.
Another 22 management and support positions at the firm's head office at Castle Donington in Derby are also at risk.
It is thought at least 66 pilots and cabin crew at Birmingham will be affected as well as 25 positions lost at Cardiff, out of a total staff of 87.
The firm said it was too early to say which services would be cut.
It also said the restructuring could lead to additional services at East Midlands Airport next year and the creation of 10 pilot and 15 cabin crew positions.
Mr Rix said efforts had to be focused on routes and services that the company felt was the best fit for its business.
The firm said discussions had been started with staff and union representatives with a view to minimising job losses where possible.