BIRMINGHAM - 4

[GayFriendly]

Dream Flights

On the assumption that the extension now seems to be going ahead time for a bit of wishful thinking, here's what I would like to see landing on the extended tarmac at BHX

VS - MCO, BGI
SQ - SIN
AA - ORD, JFK
DL - ATL
9W - BOM, DEL, ATQ
CA - PVG
Air Asia X - KUL

And breathe, OK just a wish list but its good to dream! I suppose back in 1985 if someone had suggested a double daily 777 to DXB they would have been laughed at, so maybe some of the above could happen?

On a serious note I hope this extension does not prove to be a place for tumbleweed to grow and that it does indeed bring new aeronautical business as that is something that BHX has been lacking for many a year now. I just worry that BHX has delusions of suddenly becoming some sort of long haul magnet when the extension opens, with the best will in the world I just don't think this will happen - and if it did, what then for the European full service carriers who carry so much transfer traffic from BHX through their hubs? I just wish they would get their short haul house in order as well as aiming for the big birds

[OltonPete]

June Route Analysis

Monthly figures from the CAA and the average pax per
flight is as usual estimates using the blog and libhome.

The routes where flybe are flying are mainly based on
what should have operated but due to tech issues and
European Bank Holidays I presume not all actually flew.
The 2010 figures are in brackets. I believe that the load
factors are up in general on last June. Flights lost Biarritz,
Prague & Krakow (all FR) - about 10000 passengers.

Dubai down again but above 70% but I still think the
Manchester Middle Eastern expansion is affecting BHX
a small amount. Etihad & Qatar load factors at MAN 50%
albeit it is traditionally the worse month for these routes.
BHX it would seem has no chance of expansion in this
area in the short-term? Star Alliance is the area where
the pax are up - SN, LH, SK, TK although UA/CO was
slightly down.

AF must be happy to shift some capacity to KLM as
certain AF flights are constantly selling out and don't
let the 78% load factor disguise this. Just need those
missing old destinations.

BRUSSELS/10148(9576)/48 PAX/57%
LARNACA/5036(6638)/194 PAX/91%
Paphos/3192(nil)/177 pax/83%
COPENHAGEN/6602(6466)/79 PAX/70-72%
Avignon/410(nil)/51 pax/66%
BERGERAC/1384/53 PAX/55%
Brest/740(625)/46 pax/59%
La Rochelle/1008(1122)/39 pax/50%
LYON/2669(2897)/32 PAX/64%
MONTPELLIER/3212/124 PAX/65%
NICE/5815(5702)/116 pax/78%
PARIS/27564(27908/82 PAX/78%
Toulouse/382(428)/48 pax/61%
DUSSELDORF/14976(13852)/43 PAX/50%
FRANKFURT/24054(23001)/76 PAX/55-60%
HAMBURG/2561(2897)/43 PAX/55%
HANOVER/5068(4077)/50 PAX/64%
MUNICH/13931(11032)/88 PAX/76%
STUTTGART/3467(3698)/36 PAX/46%
CORK/6373(6713)/53 PAX/74%
DUBLIN/44034(45395)/137 PAX/75%
KNOCK/3412(3448)/100 PAX/67%
SHANNON/2983(nil)/50 PAX/69%
WATERFORD/1060(1242)/31 PAX/65%
MILAN MXP/4908(3609)82 PAX/69%
TRIESTE/2285(2117)127 PAX/67%
MALTA/2579(1924)/161 PAX/85%
AMSTERDAM/40881(36877)100 PAX/75%
FARO/19567(18589)/160 PAX/83%
ALICANTE/24127(26504)/157 PAX/84%
ALMERIA/3323(1501)/185 PAX/86%
GIRONA/4077(5489)/157 PAX/83%
IBIZA/9972(9182)/169 PAX/83%
MAHON/6144/192 PAX/90%
MALAGA/29800(29015)/157 PAX/84%
MURCIA/9399(8922)/138 PAX/82%
PALMA/19942(17214)/145 PAX/81%
REUS/3853(3923)/148 PAX/78%
ARRECIFE/8505(6751)/164 PAX/81%
FUERTEVENTRA/5203(3121)/153 PAX76%
LAS PALMAS/5553(5255)/163 PAX/81%
TENERIFE/14129(13644)/161 PAX/79%
GOTHENBURG/11336(2154)/29 PAX/68%
ZURICH/12767(12099)/71 PAX/71%
ISTANBUL/3933(3481)/94 PAX/64%
DALAMAN/4974(3480)/191 PAX/89%
KAUNAS/3021(3120)/168 PAX/89%
BYDGOSZCZ/4499(3985)/173 PAX/92%
GDANSK/2674(3035)/167 PAX/88%
KATOWICE/2738 (2686)/171 PAX/91%
RZESNOW/3138(3075)/174 PAX/92%
BRATISLAVA/4490(4314) 173 PAX/91%
ASHKHABAD/4334(3939)/127 PAX/69%
TEHRAN/3873(3140)/99 pax/51%
DUBAI/35717(37972)/298 PAX/72%
ISLAMABAD/7432(7689)/219 PAX/68%
Toronto/2550(3347)319 pax/92%
NEWARK/9064(9283)/151 PAX/86%

Pete

[call100]

Originally Posted by crewmeal

What will happen to the petrol station on the LHS going to the city? I guess that will close as it will be in the way of any boundary of the airport.

They are still trying to purchase that as far as I know.....So it will be gone when the extension is done.

[roverman]

I still don't understand the case for a runway extension, given what we know about long-haul from the UK regions. Most of the routes quoted by Gay Friendly above could be operated from the current runway at BHX by today's and especially tomorrow's big twins. It is not the runways, it is the way the market works which makes long-haul so marginal from the UK regions. This has been debated endlessly on PPRUNe. MAN has good runways but still craves more long-haul. MAN's network (other than perhaps the Gulf) is always at risk of erosion by new opportunites arising for airlines to place capacity elsewhere, or by global economics tipping the viability of these services the wrong side of profitable. I am personally in favour of some level of government intervention in traffic distribution (i.e. not allowing markets to dictate everything), however I can't see long-haul blossoming at BHX unless it is somehow at MAN's expense, and does that make sense for the country as a whole?

[crewmeal]

I suppose the best we could hope for when the runway is complete are Chinese freighters bring in parts for MG at Longbridge. Maybe the Premier's visit was worth while after all.

With the way things are at the moment and given OP's CAA stats I can't see any expansion for Pax routes for the foreseeable future. If EK figures drop any further we may be back to 1 flight a day. (May be a A380) would fit the bill)

The only expansion on the horizon at BHX are more and more shops. Any guesses whose next? Primark? Matalan? TK Max?

[call100]

Originally Posted by crewmeal

The only expansion on the horizon at BHX are more and more shops. Any guesses whose next? Primark? Matalan? TK Max?

It doesn't really matter who's next in the retail area as long as they make money for the airport.

On another matter, I see there has been a shuffle of the directors and some Senior managers to facilitate the expansion team.
There are some very unhappy people there at the moment who have been sidestepped.

[OltonPete]

Winter 2011/12

Well although nothing spectacular as yet there are some positive changes mainly around Skyteam and Star Alliance.

Cityjet are on the way out on BHX-CDG from the winter schedule. The AF timetable now shows all Air France mainline A318's although another forum is reporting the evening flight is a Regional EMB190. Whatever this is great news.

KLM at present are to remove the F70 from the BHX route with the 190 taking over the first BHX inbound. The last outbound which for reasons only KLM know was first scheduled this winter as a 190 is now a 737-700 with the 190 moving to the early afternoon departure. The night-stop is a 737-800 and the second inbound a 737-700.

SAS bring back the Saturday morning Copenhagen which is great and currently showing as a CRJ900. The Mon-Fr service is showing all MD80's
but no doubt all subject to change.

Lufthansa Munich has seen some recent changes, despite excellent June loads the LH2510 & 2512 are now back to CRJ900's and these are to stay until winter except for a brief change back to the 195. Winter shows all 195's again though and added to the A320 on Frankfurt amounts to an increase in capacity.

Some change at Thomson's due to the Arab spring. Out goes Luxor, Taba, Hurghada and the "never released" Djerba (it was in the booking engine).

Replacements are Wednesday extra Las Palmas, Tuesday Boa Vista, Thursday Tenerife and Friday Tenerife. Saturdays from late November until the ski flights start are poor with no weekly sun flights unless some cruise flights are scheduled.

I can't see any further Monarch winter cuts but it looks as if Ryanair have started to hurt them on ACE, TFS, LPA & FUE which all see ZB cuts from November compared to November 2010.

Pete

[ssflyer]

GRO/BHX-3 flights a week to continue...

If you haven't picked it up already a reliable poster on PPRuNe FR page has said that FR will continue at GRO with the usual 3 flights a week from BHX planned for 2012.
Let us hope so.....

[nigel osborne]

Runway extension..

The proposed diverted A45 does indeed go through the middle of The Clock Pub where it joins the new junction roads to BHX itself.

I believe there is to be no tunnel required now, to make it affordable the plans have been amended I believe without a tunnel.

In relation to a dream list of new airlines and routes..yes theres nothing wrong with dreaming.

The first benefits will be for Emirates and PIA, who will be able to add more cargo and thus money to the routes.

Secondly it will make charter flights to the likes of Las Vegas, Calgary, Vancouver more likely.

Would not be surprised to see Virgin adding an Orlando.

Other than that, BHX would struggle to fill business or first class to destinations like Singapore..however their new lower cost venture with mostly economy could be a success as could Air Asia.

We have to get it built first and at BHX things are never nailed till they are up and running.

Nigel

[nigel osborne]

Markets from BHX runway extension

Reply to Rovermans topic on proposed runway extension.

Think it need to be remembered that the runway extension is there for the long term.

I don't agree at present that future aircraft models will be able to operate to far flung destinations from our current runways. The 787 will be much heavier than initially predicted and sure will need in excess of 9,000ft to reach the likes of China , West coast of the States which is more than we currently have.

In relation to where the markets will be from, more likely redistribution of long haul flights from Heathrow, although that has eased in the short term due to mixed mode useage of Heathrows runways about to start freeing up more slots.

We also have our own Markets with large populations from India, Bangladesh based in the West Midlands and China having the pull from owning the highly successful Land Rover factory in Solihull (hense the reason the Chinese PM chose to come only to Birmingham in the UK outside of London.

[groundhogbhx]

Runway Extension

EK don't need the extension, a 77W is quite capable of leaving BHX to DXB at max ZFW and does so regularly. Can't remember a PK leaving cargo due to performance restrictions either, but I may be wrong.

[chinapattern]

Flew out of BHX for the first time since it became 'one terminal' - must say I was quite impressed with the improvements. It was also the fastest I'd ever gone through security although having said that had the Islamabad flight not been delayed 6 hours it might have been different a story. It's just such a shame to see that the new pier full of empty aircraft stands! (save the odd Mahan A310 off course)

[Centre cities]

Stands

As well as the International pier it seems common knowledge there will soon be lots of space on the Western Apron as well.


Centre cities

[Skipness One Echo]

more likely redistribution of long haul flights from Heathrow, although that has eased in the short term due to mixed mode useage of Heathrows runways about to start freeing up more slots.

With HST it's more likely that people in the BHX catchment area will be going to LHR than vice versa alas because the starting point is that the variety and the better deals and connectivity in London are suddenly on your doorstep. Incidentally, the removal of the Cranford agreement allowing mixed mode is to be used in times of disruption to get the operation back to normality ASAP in the first instance. I don't believe Geoff Hoon's intention to allow mixed mode in normal operation has been approved by our new green friendly coalition.

[splash&dash]

Skipness

I agree in todays aspect that its more likely that 'Midlanders' will choose to go south on HST2 than vice versa, however LHR is currently operating at near max capacity. The current government have put a block on any extension at LHR including a 3rd runway so by the time HST2 is supposed to be operational (2025?) LHR will be well and truly maxed out.
So which airports in or near to London could take up the slack? LGW?
With the HST2 it puts BHX effectively in Zone 5 in London (about 45mins away). This is incredibly convenient and attractive to customers and airlines alike.
I doubt you could get to central London comfortably and easily from LTN, STN or even OXF in 45mins or less? but I stand to be corrected as i'm no expert on Londons roads or public transport, but I do know how congested and potentially stressfull it can be.

IMHO when LHR finally reaches full capacity and London / Great Britain PLC starts to lose out big time to other major european hubs then the government will quickly do a u-turn. I envisage a new airport being built somewhere in the Thames estuary Hong Kong style but cheap. But hey thats a long way off.

[bazzab68]

New Tower

All

Work on the new control tower at Bhx is coming along nicely! Being thrown up at a rate of knots! Only positive currently coming out of Bhx!Certainly no News on routes and new airlines in Bhx! Shame as the facilities are well in place it seems...


Barry

[call100]

I believe the Tower has to be completed before the extension work starts for safety reasons....Works will be out of sight for present tower.....Unless this has changed recently of course....

[OltonPete]

Girona

Ryanair have release BHX-GRO for winter reduced at present to two weekly, Monday and Friday.

Timings certainly good for weekend breaks with 06.30 Friday morning
departure and back into BHX Monday 21.15.

Still no Bratislava or BZG released or any sign of Malta.

Pete

[OltonPete]

Ryanair winter 2011/12

This might not be the final winter schedule but almost.

Bydgoszcz & Bratislava released at 3 x week Tue, Thu & Sat

Schedule thus far

Monday

1) FUE & GRO
2) ACE & DUB
3) ALC DUB LDY

1 X DUB BASED FLIGHT

Tuesday

1) TFS BZG
2) AGP DUB KTW
3) BTS GDN DUB

1 x DUB & 1 x FAO based

Wednesday

1) ALC DUB LDY
2) LPA KUN
3) ACE DUB

1 x DUB based

Thursday

1) TFS BZG
2) AGP DUB RZE
3) BTS ??? DUB

1 x DUB based

Friday

1) ALC FUE
2) ACE DUB
3) GRO DUB LDY

1 x DUB based

Saturday

1) TFS BZG
2) AGP DUB KTW
3) BTS GDN DUB

1 x DUB & 1 x FAO based flights

Sunday

1) ALC LDY ???
2) LPA RZE
3) ??? KUN DUB

1 x Dublin based aircraft.

Sunday after LDY could be Malta with a Wednesday Malta based
aircraft. Sunday morning could end up as Girona possibly????

At present I believe less flights than last year but not too dissimilar.

Pete

[NorthernCounties]

If FR isn't going to be daring and introduce new exotic routes, there is no reason why that Thursday slot couldn't be used to service LDY!