Growing Evidence That The Upturn Is Upon Us

[BitMoreRightRudder]

OK, enough negativity people!

I'll start.........





































erm....



















:eek:

[geordiejet]

Ryanair’s Traffic Grows 19% in June

Ryanair today (Friday, 4th July) published its passenger and load factor statistics for June 2008.

Jun 07 Jun 08 Increase 12 mth to 30 Jun 08
Passengers (m) 1 4.35m 5.17m 19% 53.29m
Load Factor 2 85% 84% -1% 81%


1. Represents the number of earned seats flown by Ryanair. Earned seats include seats that are flown whether or not the passenger turns up because once a flight has departed a no-show customer is not entitled to change flights or seek a refund.
2. Represents the number of passengers as a proportion of the number of seats available for passengers.

I know load factor has no direct correlation to profitibilty, but it at least shows people are still flying - and this is before most kids have broken up for the summer hols!

[JugglingSpence]

Tomorrow I'm taking my first step on the long road to an ATPL so I'm quite positive about the downturn, here's why...

I've planned to take about 2-3 years to achieve my goal which means that if we were in a peak now, by the time I qualify we would be in a trough. As it is, by the time I qualify (hopefully) the market would have recovered and airlines will need pilots- this is assuming that the 7 year cycle theory is correct.

I feel for people who are close to finishing especially if they've gone down the more expensive route but personally, I'm quite upbeat about a downturn. :ok:


I hope this helps, I've finished with my rose tinted spectacles now if anyone else wants to borrow them! :cool:

[daria-ox]

Erm..

Interesting thread.

I'm just starting my PPL now. It will take me about 3 years to get fATPL as I'm doing it the modular way. Then I will work as an Instructor for a year or two to build up my hours and gain new experience. Hopefully, by the time I will be looking forward to working with an airline, they will need pilots.

[tupues]

Flybe will announce record profits in its upcoming full year results, despite the fact many airlines are suffering as crude oil prices continue to reach new highs.

Flybe chief commercial officer Mike Rutter - speaking ahead of annual results and before its franchise with Scottish airline Loganair launches in October – told ABTN the carrier is benefiting from a lower break-even factor, meaning it can withstand fuel prices more easily.

“The airline industry is facing the greatest set of challenges since the 1974 oil crisis, a triple whammy of record fuel prices - aviation jet fuel prices have increased 100% in nine months – reducing consumer demand for discretional leisure flights because of the credit crunch and increasing taxation driven by ill-thought-through green proposals,” said Rutter.

“As Europe’s largest regional carrier - Flybe will carry 8m passengers in 2008 – we have been preparing for these challenges for five years. While we couldn’t have predicted the size of the increase in the oil price, we were clear it was going to go up. We were also clear two years ago that consumers’ appetite for visiting places they had never heard of would wane, dented by a weaker economy and by a consumer backlash to the service attitude of some hard-core low - cost airlines.”

In 2003 Flybe took the decision to change its fleet to the lowest fuel-burn aircraft, spending more than $2bn on a new fleet of 70 turboprops and jets. The move is now paying dividends, because with fuel at current prices it still makes up only 24.6% of the carrier’s cost base, a far lower percentage than many airlines are having to spend.

“To help manage fuel we also put in place a rigorous fuel hedging policy and as a result have a nominal hedge cover for this year of 76%,” said Rutter. “So with lower fuel burn and better hedging, Flybe has the fuel problem covered.”

In 2005, Flybe also reshaped its network to create a mix of business destinations and places with large family links – types of travel it believed would be less affected in an economic downturn. The carrier completed the purchase and integration of British Airway’s regional operations in 2007, and now 42% of Flybe customers travel for business and more than 30% are visiting friends and relatives.

“As a result we have a network of routes of which more than 84% have twice-daily frequencies or higher,” added Rutter.

Environmental issues are clearly important to Flybe’s fleet strategy, and its investment in 60 turboprops in 2003 was made largely because they had the smallest carbon footprint for a European domestic market. It also launched the world’s first airline Ecolabel in 2007 to provide consumers with data on its fleet compared with other airlines.

Rutter is therefore bullish about the airline’s figures and position, despite a tough aviation climate – “Undoubtedly weaker airlines will be acquired and consolidated as a result of current conditions,” he said. “Flybe has been highly acquisitive and will remain so during this time. Five years of planning has ensured we will not only survive but prosper in these difficult times.

[Deano777]

True for Flybe, but remember their fleet expansion & replacement program will be complete by late 2009, after this recruitment will be down to attrition only, and in a downturn attrition is very very small.

[geordiejet]

BMRR, there is no upturn, thats the negative truth, forget being positive, it gives people false hope.
The mods need to delete this thread, it's pointless

I don't think it does. People believe what the want to believe. And nobody listens on the 'downturn' thread, so I can't see how the 'upturn' thread can have any impact.

People will still gamble their parents lifesaving/deeds, and get shafted by pay to fly schemes, buy as you fly and all that nonsense regardless of what they here on here.

The only people listen to, unfortunately, are glossy brochures, and salesmen dressed up as pilots from the big four schools. No matter what is said on here, OAA (and the perceptions that you WILL get a job with BA [despite more people going to FR and BE than any other airlines), FTE, Cabair and CTC marketing are the only influential bodies in this game.

[Grass strip basher]

Does Flybe still make money with $140 dollar oil??

[Deano777]

Flybe will break even with fuel at $170 per barrel

[Tony Hirst]

What you are failing to realise is that we are on our way into a downturn, were far from in there yet, things will get a whole lot worse.
I just don't see it that way? Apart from the banks :mad: it all up, what exactly is it about the economy as it stands that puts us in a recession. All the factors we have seen are because of a booming world economy. We consume, they produce. At some point they reach self sustaining speed and then consume and then some other countries become producers, etc. The Credit Crunch is just a natty phrase looking for a problem. The banks cannot sustain their businesses with their current knee jerk tightening of loan criteria, they will have to open up again soon. The oil price is not as critical as people suggest, people will adjust their expectations and then spend as they did before and as they have done during previous fuel costs hikes.

If anything, this process may work in all our favours, by slowing the economy and permitting some introspection rather than creating more burstable bubbles. It appears that a slow down in Europe and America is going to be healthy for some of the Asian economies that were starting to overheat with near uncontrolable high inflation. What's good for one invariably ends up being good for the other.

[nich-av]

Airbus may see record orders this year with its A320, A330 and A350XWB selling like hot chocolates.
FlyDubai is expected to place a big A320 order.

Maybe at last, an A330 or B777 order from MOL who still needs to make his TATL ops come true?

We have emerging markets in Africa, and I highly recommend pilots who don't find a job to go there and do some bush flying. There's enough jobs and they wages are very good (tax-free!)


I've planned to take about 2-3 years to achieve my goal which means that if we were in a peak now, by the time I qualify we would be in a trough. As it is, by the time I qualify (hopefully) the market would have recovered and airlines will need pilots- this is assuming that the 7 year cycle theory is correct.

I feel for people who are close to finishing especially if they've gone down the more expensive route but personally, I'm quite upbeat about a downturn. :ok:


This is very reasonable thinking.
A good pilot is always ahead of himself and the machine.

In the U.S. airlines are grounding aircraft, laying off staff. 1 year from now, they will be hiring again and new low-cost airlines will emerge from nowhere to take advantage of the weak airlines that went through the downturn.
The economy is a complicated matter and even Richard Branson could not have timed the start-up of Virgin America worse.

But hey, this ain't 9/11. The only negative in the equation are oil prices. They will last until November, at best.

10% of world's oil is burned by aircraft.(military and civil combined)
If oil stays where it is or increases futher, airlines will simply stop flying (except Emirates), people will stop driving cars.

OPEC can not afford to let that happen.

[RVR800]

The last recession interest rates rose to 15% its only 5% now so thats good relatively

That said fuel is a tad expensive but that will prevent global warming as we all
get rid of gas guzzling cars - so that another plus

Unemployment is historically very low so that is good news

One problem is that we still have a shortage of housing although the rental market is booming

:8

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

And they'll be back up there before long as inflation ravages the land. Interest rates are a proxy for mortgage rates. Which for many people are now over 7%. There aren't ANY two year fixed rate products under 7% at the moment. And that is 7% on a loan that is three times what it needed to be when Gordon Brown stood on the steps of Number 11 and proclaimed no return to boom & bust.

Well we've certainly had to boom. Ooh, and this must feel a bit like a bust for this chap:


£175,000 flat I bought last year is now worth less than £100,000: Owner's negative equity horror | Mail Online (http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1031820/175-000-flat-I-bought-year-worth-100-000-Owners-negative-equity-horror.html)


£175,000 flat I bought last year is now worth less than £100,000: Owner's negative equity horror


Changing fortune: Maurice Conroy outside his studio flat in central London, which has plummeted in value

A property investor who bought a flat for £175,000 at the height of the housing boom has ended up in a negative equity nightmare after its value nosedived by almost 50 per cent.

Maurice Conroy, who owns a string of buy-to-let flats, bought the studio in central London last summer. But he has just had it valued by three agents who told him it would now only sell for between £80,000 and £100,000.

He is one of a growing number of..


Unemployment is a total fiddle as we have 2.7 million scroungers on disability allowance.

If we are so short of housing you'd better let the house builder Barratt (laid off 900 workers this week) and TaylorWimpey (laid off 1000 workers this week) know that they've terribly misread the market...

I'm not helping this thread am I?

;)

WWW

[JB007]

Now this is good news, Ice Cream Van's are back! We've got one going through the village as I type, haven't seen one of those for years! 99 anyone?http://www.clicksmilies.com/s1106/ernaehrung/food-smiley-011.gif

Have I gone off topic??!!

[heli_port]

good news:

1) The interbank libor has decreased
2) House prices have risen
4) Oil prices have returned to sub $100
5) Food prices have decreased
6) The gold price has fallen
7) Gordon LIAR Brown has been voted out of office

wait i'm thinking about 2010 :} if you want to know about 2008:

There is none.

We are in a recession (not rechnically - as we haven't had 2 quarters of negative growth), what goes up must come down and vice versa.

cheerup up people you can always buy ice cream from the van that passes through JB007's village ;) (if you can afford it :})

I appear to have hijacked the thread! oh well when in rome...:p

[smith]

Whats best, integrated or modular?

[getoffmycloud]

ha ha smith that bought a smile to my face (modular... no integrated... oh I don't know):}

[hollingworthp]

Scotsman: After months of rising, lenders begin to cut fixed-rate mortgage rates (http://business.scotsman.com/personal-finance/After-months-of-rising-lenders.4259086.jp)

EXPERTS have forecast a fall in fixed-rate mortgage prices after several leading lenders announced cuts. Abbey, Nationwide and Halifax are all cutting rates on some deals and more reductions could be due, according to Ray Boulger, senior technical manager at broker John Charcol.



Guardian: Banks pledge £220m to Bradford & Bingley (http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/jul/05/bradfordbingleybusiness.banks1)
Six high street banks have agreed to guarantee up to £220m of the £400m Bradford & Bingley fundraising that was thrown into disarray on Thursday night when private equity house TPG pulled its investment in the buy-to-let lender.

(Not a glowing piece of news - but another bank against the wall would have been bad news indeed - hopefully more than just a stay of execution)


bbc.co.uk: Iran optimism steadies oil price (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7490485.stm)
The price of oil fell back on Friday, on hopes Iran would react positively to proposals to resolve a dispute over its nuclear development programme.

[hollingworthp]

Whilst I have no intention whatsoever of getting into an arguement on an internet forum (surely one of the most pointless pursuits possible :E)

With a disabled wife (in the genuine sense of the word) who receives Incapacity Benefit & Disability Living Allowance, I find this sweeping comment to be insulting even though I do understand some of the sentiment:
Unemployment is a total fiddle as we have 2.7 million scroungers on disability allowance.

Phil.

[nich-av]

£175,000 flat I bought last year is now worth less than £100,000: Owner's negative equity horror


Real estate agencies are pressing prices down in order to sale more volume because they are selling less homes as a result of the credit crunch.

I had my house quoted by a random but reputable real estate agent, and he quoted me a price that was 35% lower than what a close friend of mine that owns another reputable real estate agency quoted to me 2 days later.
(For the detail, I showed the random real estate guy the finger)

Some stupid sellers are not bothered to give their homes away for almost nothing, (a bit like pilots who do not bother paying to work) but I think that real estate agencies are in detress mode and trying to sell as many homes as they can, as soon as they can which sees many homes listed for less money. These homes are bargains now and I recommend some people who have the cash to actually invest in the real estate, there's no better moment.

[helimutt]

hollingworthp, get a grip. He meant the people who don't work because they get away with it. The scroungers and layabouts we all know who are perefectly capable of working..

I knew what he meant.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Home : Benefits and Work (http://www.benefitsandwork.co.uk)



Over the past ten years, the Disability Living Allowance (DLA) budget has gone from £5.7billion to £8.8billion a year. The number of drug addicts and alcoholics claiming the £60-a-week payment has risen five-fold, from 3,000 in 1997 to nearly 17,000 last year. The claim of 'back pain - not specified' has gone from 56,000 to 123,000. The number of deaf people in the UK has almost tripled from 13,000 to 34,600.

You couldn't make this up - this guy claimed £43,000 in disability allowance!


http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2008/06/28/article-1030237-00A2B05F000004B0-538_233x573.jpg


Jon Stentiford was able to collect Disability Living Allowance at the same time as holding the title of Cornwall's Strongest Man. The 36-year-old, of St Neot, pocketed £43,000 after claiming he had a bad back. The 6ft 4in bodybuilder began receiving the benefit for sciatica - a condition that can cause lower back pain - in 2002.

Like anyone else with half a brain and an ounce of compassion I would like to triple the allowance given to genuinely disabled people and make their life as comfortable as it can possibly be.

But claiming unemployment is at record lows whilst 2.8 million claim the dole by other means is just a fraud.

WWW

[nich-av]

Disability allowance is one thing, but what are the UK doing in Iraq?

That war makes the spendings for the disability funds look like a bargain...

There's over 4000 UK troops in Iraq and dear mr Brown intends to increase the troops in Afghanistan to 8000. Paychecks, equipment, financial assistance for the injured and the families of k.i.a.'s, resources, etc...

Can a small country like the UK afford this?

Not only that, soon the UK will be begging to be part of the euro currency. After all, patriotism didn't work out as planned with the GBP dropping from 1.5 euro to 1.25 euro in the past 12 months.

The UK is therefore in pretty much the same situation as the U.S.: in a war, a weak economy, a weak currency.

[heli_port]

By Tracy Alloway
July 7 (Bloomberg) -- EasyJet Plc (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=EZJ%3ALN), Europe's second-biggest discount airline, rose as much as 7.6 percent in London trading after saying it carried 20 percent more passengers in June as it added planes and bought GB Airways Ltd.



Bloomberg.com: U.K. & Ireland (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601102&sid=a7.mR__ia6l0&refer=uk)

[Adios]

Of those who are capable but milking it, I'm not sure which is worse, having them on the dole or having them flogging the Big Issue every time I step out of the house.

I don't think I'd say no if this bruiser stuck Big Issue in my face though!

[Boing7117]

Jon Stentiford was able to collect Disability Living Allowance at the same time as holding the title of Cornwall's Strongest Man


...of course they did........ would anyone dare tell this bloke he wasn't Cornwall's 'ardest?

[bsal]

Well Irelands boom has certainly burst with record unemployment this year, 220,000 on the labour now, thats worse than the recesion in the 80s, and the construction industry in a bad way. The cost of living has gone out of control here. People that have jobs are working just to pay bills and buy some food. I read in the paper the average weekly grocery shopping is €155. People just haven't got the money to spend on other things at the moment.

[hollingworthp]

BBC: Oil prices fall by more than $5 (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7496637.stm)

The impact of a global economic slowdown on demand for oil has caused prices to fall by more than $5, with London seeing the largest drop.

Crude oil prices fell to about $136 a barrel, well down on the record price of almost $147 set in London last wee

[bjkeates]

I wouldn't get excited by oil dropping $5. Last month people got excited because it dropped back to $121, then it rocketed to about $137 or something the next day. It's in the news this morning that Iran have just test-fired a missile which can reach Israel, which will no doubt send the price back the wrong way again.

[SVoa]

I dont write too much but i regularly read these posts. Just want to say my opinion on this matter. I personally think that its just a period of instabillity in the aviation industry. As everyone knows aviation is the most revolutionary industry and one that has always managed to find new ways of exapnding AND surviving. Dont forget that rising oil prices affect ALL travel industries. Traveling is second nature to many millions of people and there is no way people will stoop to an alternative travel industry to compensate for rising prices in the aviation industry. Our industry is just the most publicized and people hear its good and bad more.

I think that anyone who wants to become a pilot needs to be flexible and they have good chances of finding a job to get the first 800-1000 hours which are crucial. Most people I know who said "im gonna do whatever it takes" made it and landed good jobs VERY fast, the ones who said " i have a girlfriend here, i cant just leave" are the ones on forums complaining about how the aviation industry is in a major downturn. Aircraft will always be flying and the investors wont just let themselves loose money!!!!

Just my two cents

SVoa

[AceD3]

hear hear! good words SVoa :ok:

I'm defintely one of those do whatever it takes!

[Togodumnus]

Finished my groundschool in Sept 2006 with four others on my course.

1 Working for Sky Europe now has plenty of jet hours
2 Bonded with Virgin Nigeria
3 & 4 now both accepted into Ryanair
5 me, thumb up butt for too long!!! now looking to complete training.

There are jobs but you have to be flexible, willing to move overseas if needed and cough up for a rating that is in demand!!! 737's I think they are all on.

Even if things do go tits up make sure you are in an employable position when things get better because they always do. Even now there are still plenty of very rich folk wanting to fly around in private jets without the hassle of a major airport!

[SVoa]

Now here is a person with some brains in his head!!!! Well said Tog..

Svoa

[hollingworthp]

The Nationwide is cutting interest on a two-year fixed-rate deal, for those paying a £599 fee, from 6.48% to 6.18% on a loan that is 75% of a property's value. It is coming down from 6.88% to 6.58% for those who need a 90% loan-to-value mortgage.


BBC: Nationwide to cut mortgage rates (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7509538.stm)

[Adios]

Yes, but a 90% value to loan ratio mortgage could easily have you upside down in six months. 95 and 100% mortgages are what got us here in the first place. The correction in prices was desperately needed though. The high prices of California homes is what drove lenders to offer 100% sub primes in the first place and that is where the melt down started.

[SVoa]

Its really funny how what people say in the news and what we read and hear can make us freak out so bad. Its definately not the best time to become a pilot, lets not lie... but what is it good to be now?????? i finished high school in 2004 and said ill go and do an IT degree because 4 years ago it had lots of demand... nooooooo now IT people are way too many!!! there are no jobs. People working in banks are pretty much worse off than pilots because of the credit crunch, and businesses are also trying to cut costs now. We are in a bumpy period, but do what you wanna do and try hard. Personally i see what i see, ALL my friends who finished ATPLs have found jobs, some in cargo, some in private jets and some in airlines.. but THEY ARE ALLLLLLLL FLYING!!! Its a bit hard but its fine.. The people you hear saying "oh i cant find a job, i gave so much money and now snothing" are people who for example are in the UK and ONLY wanna stay in the UK. Your gonna have to move around till you have 2000+ hours and can knock on many doors.


SVoa

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

BIG DEAL!

Mortgage rates have been dramatically hiked and then dropped by a tiny amount simply so the spin can read "Mortgage Rates Easing". The table below shows how the recent "cuts" will make little difference to the average mortgage;




http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2008/07/17/article-1035833-01F9C4A500000578-378_468x286.jpg



With house prices off by >10% already with 30% more to come many of the most economically active members of society will be highly inactive soon.

Its not the cost of the kerosene that's going to cripple airlines. Its the lack of passengers.

WWW

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Upturn cancelled.

Ryanair to slash 11% of Stansted (largest base by far) for the winter and close 7 foreign bases for the winter.


Thats the worlds most profitable airline. You don't need Mystic Meg to help you work out what's about to happen this winter.

WWW

[RVR800]

BBC NEWS | Business | Ryanair to cut Stansted flights (http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7511536.stm)

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Yes Rex, that's right.

I'm predicting the future. The figures will follow. Just the way I did with the house prices and the recession.

And for clarity its a 14% flight reduction and a 25% aircraft reduction. Ryanair is the worlds most profitable airline.

The upturn IS cancelled for Wannabes.


WWW

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

To your ears I sound an utter arrogant tosser? Fine.

The limitations of the medium mean that I have little influence on how people interpret the tone of my postings.

You are obviously upset about the current situation for airlines and wannabes and you are choosing to lash out at me because I accept the role of messenger. That's fine. Whilst I don't enjoy the condemnation my consolation is that (earlier) Wannabes might become better informed by this and other threads.


You ask "What Recession?"




I need make no comment.


WWW

[Lurking123]

A selective quote (after all, this is a public forum and much/most of that which is quoted is selective):

If I cared about a PPRuNe popularity contest I'd be really upset and halfway through my second hankie by the harsh words on this thread. But guess what - I'm a big boy and you can just f%c5 off this forum, stay, pick a fight or be quiet. I really don't care and neither does 99% of the audience.

But I speak the truth. I was right. I am right. I will be right. And at the end of the day I'll still be here ten years from now just as I was here ten years ago. Unlike those that slag me off. The weren't here. They won't be.

Oh and, of course, there is always the option of not clicking, not scrolling and not reading a thread that you find not interesting... you 5uckwit.

The sun still shines chaps.

That sounds like arrogance to me although I would agree that the pen (or at least the keyboard) is often a limiting method of communicating one's personality. What I can say is that Speakers' Corner seems to have been overly hogged by a couple of individuals in the past few weeks, regardless of the accuracy of the message. :)

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Rex - had I been posting warnings of recession since 2005 like Roger Bootle then your stopped clock metaphor might have a meaning. Given that I went public with bearish Wannabe warnings in Sept 2007 you are, once again, talking out of your backside. If you contend that the UK/EU recession is in fact just going to be a slowdown then lets just see shall we?


Lurking. Note the fact that I've made something like 3,500 posts on these forums and I tend to be spicy. Having noted this please be aware that I stand by every word. Wannabes need warning. The bull**** spin from Vested Interests needs counterbalancing.

That the message was accurate is consolation enough for me.

WWW

[Re-Heat]

Rex

You are naive in the extreme if you do not think we are facing a recession, particularly in the aviation industry.

Take this - http://iata.org/NR/rdonlyres/4CC9ABE8-2D5A-454A-977A-DE86E956B62A/0/Industry_Outlook_Presentation_June08.pdf - the report from IATA, the industry body themself.

The US is flirting with recession, as has been reported in a number of media outlets. Rising unemployment and falling output are the reality. Whether or not it becomes a technical recession or not is semantics - the demand is slowing.

The danger for wannabes is that, depending upon the industry they currently work in, slowdowns may not be obvious for a while. Furthermore, to counter a misconception posted above, high loads on aircraft do not necessarily equate to profitability - hence Ryanair grounding aircraft this coming winter rather than flying them at a loss.

Remember - there are two sides to revenue before you take off the fuel costs - price and volume.

[Grass strip basher]

So what is the positive spin on Ryanair grounding that many flights?? How is this good for aircrew? WWW has got it spot on.... for God sake wake up and smell the coffee.... even Ryanair is cutting back and battening down the hatches... you won't see announcements about them cutting aircrew because moat are on contracts anyway.

P.S. Rex I love the travel agents saying fuel surcharge will not impact demand.... no doubt turkeys will soon be announcing that Christmas is cancelled this year and Sky will let us all know what this indpendent body of birds is saying about the future of Christmas..

[Lafyar Cokov]

Fuel Price 2 Days Ago: Brent Crude Spot: $144.95/barrel

Fuel Price Today: Brent Crude Spot: $129.84 /barrel

Not in any way the 'be all and end all' - or even a massive reduction, but interesting all the same!

[hollingworthp]

I happen to be in agreement with WWW although I feel that some of the impact of his highly factual posts is lost with his overly Zealous approach.

Just for balance I like to post - what are clearly the rare - snippets of positive news.

If I had a young son or daughter asking me for advice right now on whether they should splurge on an integrated course then I would probably advise against this.

I started my training at OAA back in August 07 on the back of the tagged scheme with NetJets and I am confident that I made the right decision for me and my family. I was in the fortunate position of not having to go to HSBC with cap in hand having worked for 12 years in non-related industries. I also feel that NJE are well positioned to capitalise on both upturns and downturns in the market. Currently the ultra-wealthy and corporate customers will be 'downgrading' their own jets into fractional schemes whilst those at the bottom of the wealth scale will resort to first-class with the airlines. In an upturn the reverse occurs.

Being relatively risk averse - if it was not for this particular scheme, I would be thinking very carefully whether I wanted to invest all this cash right now and whether or not a modular approach might be wiser. Saying that - everyone has their own unique set of circumstances and I don't feel it is fair to lump all 'wannabees' together as sponging off the bank of Mum & Dad whilst not looking further than the glossy marketing of any given FTO.

That's my twopeneth :}

PS:
BBC: Banking rally boosts US markets (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7510792.stm)
US stock markets have rebounded strongly after better-than-expected results from a leading bank and further sharp falls in the price of oil.

The Dow Jones index closed up 2.5% after its strongest daily performance in three months, driven by demand for leading bank stocks.

[spinnaker]

Rex,

The figures that the IMF use are historical, that rate of change is so fast that what they say today, is based upon what happened two or three months ago. My own business plan for the next 18 months has been put in the shredder because of that. I produce FR eggs and my production is based upon another farm supplying the layers. Last week feed shot up by over 10% in one go. For spring 2009 I need 3000 extra hens, at the current rate of inflation, following my original plan, wholesale price would go from £1.50 doz. to over £3.50 doz. In an effort to keep cost down, I need to change tack ticks and breed my own layers. This is not something that can usually be done on a whim, but I have to, to stay in the game. Even then, I have serious doubts that I can keep next years prices below £2.80 doz if I keep breeding successfully for five years, which I need to do, to recover investment in breeding stock. I mention all this because its not always apparent how fast the economic climate is changing, and it is.

www is not a stuck record or a broken clock. Ladies and gentlemen this is serious ****

[hollingworthp]

AIN: Boeing and Airbus continue to defy gloomy predictions (http://www.ainonline.com/news/single-news-page/article/boeing-and-airbus-continue-to-defy-gloomy-predictions/)

For the third day running, Airbus and Boeing defied pessimistic predictions of softening demand for airliners with new contracts collectively worth almost $6 billion.

Airbus notched up another order for the A350, with South Korea’s Asiana Airlines placing almost $5 billion worth of firm orders for 30 of the new widebody aircraft and optioning 10 more. Deliveries will begin in 2016 and will include all three versions of the A350. The carrier plans to operate the aircraft on regional and long-haul routes. Orders for the new Airbus now total more than 350 units, from 20 customers.

U.S. lessor Aviation Capital Group announced an order for 15 Boeing 737-700s that by the end of the 2013-15 delivery period will take its fleet to 91.

[nich-av]

Oil charts indicate a 10% drop in oil prices over the past 48 hours. The pattern of trade indicates a potential decrease to lower values tomorrow.


Triggers?
-A huge bank casualty
-the biggest American brewer being bought out by a brewer of a tiny little country called Belgium.
-Republican advisors being quoted saying that oil drilling would not make any money until 20 years from now
-News that the U.S. is moving troops from Iraq to Afghanistan
-Something we don't know / will never know



Just the way I did with the house prices and the recession.


Sure, you predicted while it happened :D
It's like saying "I'm landing!" after you already touched down.

House prices are picking up again in many locations in the U.S. as many people take advantage of the lower prices.

Airline casualties in the U.S. are very likely.
My guess is UA and NW.

[G-SPOTs Lost]

Lafyar

Jet A1 price two days ago £1.00 per litre

Jet A1 price today £1.00 per litre

Jet A1 price two years ago 50p per litre

I manage an lumpy bizjet and can confirm that the fuel price has not shown any negative trend for 3 YEARS its the rate of increase that has speeded up hence everybody has noticed.

If by your post you are trying to put a positive spin on the current situation by oil price I suggest that you look a little further back than two days.

I deiberately have kept out of these downturn threads, dying to come out with some great words to give wannabees everywhere a good headshake....

safe to say that people like www and myself are from the same generation, mid to late 90's doing the old CAA exams, BCPL, instruct for 500 hours / 18months then multi and then IR - CPL at 700hrs. Then and only then did you feel confident enough to apply for jobs, cant speak for www but in my case it nearly 4 years after qualifying that I found myself in a simulator for a type rating.

Guys those 4 years were HARD.

prior to JAR the ability to get into a 737 after 12 months training was really available to an elite few, sons of BA captains, rugby club captains. The course was £30k and nobody could afford it, everybody did the self improver route CAP509 ers were a rarity.

Those that have seen it, struggled with years of instruction, waiting for a break and have come through who are now captains are ideally placed now to give the advice you read in these threads because we have most recently experienced the depressing downturn that is (to anybody that was around in the late 90's, early 2000, 9/11) staring us in the face.

All this talk of economics is a sidebar to me. If you think you are going to qualify and get into a 737 anytime soon then you quite clearly have that little common sense that to be brutally frank you will probably struggle withthe job anyway.

If you do want to take www to task about economics then I read some previous threads, the forecasting of gulf War II being accurate,

When in 2003 www says train train train its never been so good and everybody did and got on with easy and FR, nobody was calling into question his motives and commitment to wannabees and the forum. Now that the sermon has changed everybody is bitching, it is classic head in the sand syndrome.

Keep your powder dry do the exams and see what happens and dont do anything stupid like remortgaging your mums house.

Long term captains in large airlines are battening down the hatches and just riding the storm, really what chance do you really think you are going to have with some seneca time and no experience when all airlines are trying to deal with just keeping the doors open.

PS www not blowing smoke up your arse, just trying to bring a bit of balance here. I can remember when G-Spots Lost was G-Spot before the great prune crash of 2002!!!

[Lafyar Cokov]

G-SPOT - as I put on the rest of my post Not in any way the 'be all and end all' - or even a massive reduction, but interesting all the same!

I was merely pointing out that this is the first reversal in the fairly constant upsurge in the price of oil that we have had for the last few months.

As someone who gained over 4000 hours before sitting in the RHS of a 737, please don't lecture me on coming up through the ranks!! This thread was started (i believe) to provide a little counter to a thread of a similar name - as we have all seen it has been turned into exactly the same thread by those who wish to dominate this conversation. I was merely adding a little interesting news. I have not in any way attacked anyone personally and feel that your high-horse approach is a little ignorant, arrogant and presumptuous. I am not saying that times are going to be easy - or that now the price of a barrel of Sweet Crude has dropped 4%, things are all fine.

Regarding the future outlook - how can anyone speak on here with any authority at all - if you know all the answers then invest all your assets into a position on the world markets, live off the gains and sell your sage advice to thousands of investors who will pay top money to hear it from a guru. If this is not what you are doing then you are obviously - like the rest of us - at best estimating based on rough experience of past events or at worst, guessing.

I am of the opinion that - yes we are in/heading for, at the very least, a correction in the global economy and corrections/downturns/slowdowns or even recessions are self fulfilling prophesies. Whatever the trigger-action for the problem, things are generally made a great deal worse by the media, ‘the word on the street’ and now, the internet by placing people in a mindset that ‘things are bad therefore I’d better not spend any money’. Once this takes hold the entire free market suffers as suppliers cut back etc etc etc.

OK – so now I’ve realized I’ve ranted. To conclude, however, I will quote something which I posted in the ‘Downturn’ thread that – shockingly – hasn’t changed in the months since I last wrote it on the 11th of May:Can I sum up this whole thread??

"There may or may not be further trouble ahead for the financial and housing markets - some people fervently think there will be, others are not convinced. Anyone who is thinking of entering training now should probably be quite careful that they can financially afford to do this and should think very carefully before committing themselves to a large bank loan. Wise planning and a bit of luck should land you in the right place at the right time however, be prepared for the job market to slow down and expect a possibly protracted period of unemployment prior to finally landing that first job once your training has been completed"

[nich-av]

Have they finally understood that:

the only way to
-save the country's economy
-the November elections

is to cool down the Middle-East?

or

-have they finally got what they wanted, whatever that is
-are they planning something real bad?

Time will tell.

[G-SPOTs Lost]

Lafyar

Certainly didn't mean to preach to you about coming through the ranks, if you have picked up on that bit of my post and felt that I was aiming at you then accept my sincere apologies.

When Oil hits $180 a barrel, I shall politely remind you of this thread.

The point I was trying to make was summed up by this:

All this talk of economics is a sidebar to me. If you think you are going to qualify and get into a 737 anytime soon then you quite clearly have that little common sense that to be brutally frank you will probably struggle withthe job anyway

We are on the same page when you say

how can anyone speak on here with any authority at all

But regardless of what is said on here, if its going to happen then it will. Anybody who is commencing training now in my mind is a fool who will no doubt be parted with his money in the short term.

This is not a self fulfilling phrophecy as you say but a fact that to me is as plain as day, its been good for a while now its going to be crap for a while so do something else for two years.

This thread was named to provide a counter arguement to the other thread that turned into an armchair economics lesson. Its almost irresponsible to have a thread on here that puts any positive spin on peoples employment prospects for the next 24-36 months but its good for balance I suppose

Not being "ignorant, arrogant and presumptuous" as others were intended to read the post as well as you, sincerely the fuel price bit was for you and I'll stand by that as a 4% spread on that price can happen most days.

I'm tring to get a realists point of view across unencumbered by armchair economics so that people dont find themselves with nowhere to go and HSBC all over them like a cheap coat..........

[gemini76]

........... have so far been spot on.
WWW - any chance of letting me have next Saturdays winning lottery numbers please ???:O

[G-SPOTs Lost]

PM by Lafyar, lets keep comments in the public domain shall we. I'm too busy to debate each post individually.

Lafyar - you misunderstand, the whole post was not addressed at you - calm down, how could you overreact and misconstrue comments like "wannabees everywhere" and "Guys those 4 years were HARD" as being addressed to you. :ugh:

Also if somebody has the good grace to offer their "sincere apologies" prior to receiving your petty PM, then its says more about you if you do not have the good grace to accept them.

Regarding my prediction I stand by it and would argue that in 2005 which is when my prediction became "valid" recruitment was the best it had been for a very good number of years since 9/11 and the late 90's with many wannabees getting their first job with regionals and at that time even BA taking on DEP's which would have been laughed out of court if I had made that comment back in 2003.

In ten years of pruning you are the first person to make it on my ignore list - congratulations

Lafyars PM.........

Mr GSPOT

I do not wish to have a public show-down, or try to prove anything in publicly on the forums of PPRUNE. I thought I would let you know exactly what I thought was so rude and ill thought-out in your post.

The post was addressed to me - with my moniker at the top. I believe I can therefore reasonably conclude that the comments within were all addressed to me. If at any stage you had referred to 'wannabes' or any other term to describe people looking to make choices about flying training then I could possibly forgive some of your assumptions - however you said "you" when refering to my chances of attaing a RHS position in a 737, "you" when going on about Seneca time and "you" refering to the amount of common sense I have.

With regards to common sense - I think maybe you are swimming in the shorter depths of the common-sense pool. Before publicly attacking someone - it maybe wise to check up a little about them, rather than shoot from the hip and immediately accuse anyone who posts something that you don't agree with of having
Quote:
some seneca time and no experience

The merest peek into my previous posts may have indicated that this was not the case - I started flying when you were probably in junior school, have been in the civil flying sector and for the last sixteen years as a helicopter pilot in the military. I am now out and happily sitting in the RHS of a 737 after applying for various jobs - including bizjets - for the last year.

I can see that you are GA/BizJet pilot who has gained some experience in this field but are probably keen to move into the airlines - looking at selection with MyTravel, EasyJet and BMI.

With regards the price of fuel reaching $180 dollars a barrel - I don't doubt that one day it will - however a man who has the courage of his convictions would have said "Oil will reach $180 dollars a barrel by (for example) November 08" rather than the comlete get-out of
Quote:
When Oil hits $180 a barrel, I shall politely remind you of this thread.

Regarding predicitons can I remind you of one of yours from 2003?
Quote:
I propose that in 1-2 years time, paying for a type rating will be a thing of the past. With a reasonable amount of experience Airlines will be positively tripping over themselves to recruit suitable applicants.

As you can see - we don't all have the answers - we just offer the best advice as seems fit at the time.

My original post merely stated the fact that over two days the rampant oil price had corrected. I stated openly that this was merely interesting and not a basis for anyone to mortgage anyone's home over. You elected to direct your fairly defamatory post at me, telling me that I had too little common sense to operate a 737 and that I had no idea what I was talking about. That attack was unwarranted and showed you as a person that does not take in the whole picture, cannot think through an idea without balance and fire back without thought. Is this how you fly an aircraft - I sincerely hope that for you and your passengers it is not.

Maybe you should consider whether a rethink of some of your sentiment is in order.

[Lafyar Cokov]

Maybe it was a PM because I didn't want some information posted on a public forum??????

If 'ignore' is the way you deal with people who disagree with you - maybe you should re-think your career options.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

I do love a heated debate.

Of course we'd all get on famously propped up by some Bar somewhere.

Personally I'm running low on predictions so Saturdays numbers will have to remain luck dip. I did anticipate the house price crash and the recession that always follows. I am pleased that I got out of shares and into oil and gold. I know this winter will see the passing of several European airlines.

But beyond that I no longer have much certainty. There will still be a demand for pilots though. So don't give up the dream. I very much look forward to writing, once again, that "there has never been a better time to train and that Wannabes are entering a golden age" - to quote myself. 2012 is looking promising ;)


WWW


ps Try - 07 09 22 39 42 44

[Lafyar Cokov]

WWW - if those numbers do come up I will track you down and end it all!!!

[RVR800]

Thursday....

IMF _ Upgrades Growth
FTSE _ massive one day rise 2%
Natonwide - two cuts in mortgage rates to buyers in two weeks
Oil - $10 fall in a day

On the other hand RYR grounding planes etc .. but may reverse due to positive news above?

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

If those numbers come up I'll host a Wannabes ball with free champagne..

[HappyFran]

Possibly a bit premature but:
We are into the season of banks giving trading updates. Seems most of the dirty washing is out on display, stock markets have reacted favourably. The Banks hearlded the start of the downturn, now they have come clean, maybe they will start in a few months to trust each other again and pull down the LIBOR premium. Eventually they will be able to offer more affordable loans to first time buyers.
Don't get me wrong the rest of the economy has some way to go to bottom out. Unemployment will continue to rise and house prices will carry on down.

BUT We could be seeing the end of the beginning of the downturn.

House prices will bottom out say May 2009 and stay static through to mid 2010. Unemployment similar. As seems to be common knowledge Airlines are last to recover say 2011 and we may well be able to find gainful employment.
Probably be helped by the spending on the Olympics, and a election with a change of Govt. or at least PM :} and things will be on the up.


Don't get into debt and it all looks rosey :):):)


Fran

[G-SPOTs Lost]

Seems like only 6 months ago the $100 barrel of oil made the front page of the times (hang on a minute it was just 6 months ago............)

One of the more relevant points that Lafyar made was that its the media and peoples perception of recession that will fuel a downturn, not whats written on here. A small decrease in oil price when it has risen nearly 50% in 6 months I feel is not going to help matters much its a bit like having to stick your hand in water at 90 deg as opposed to Boiling - its still gonna hurt!

Lead in times for expansion and aircraft ordering are many years in the making, how can strategy planners in the aviation industry account for what is happening in 6 months (see above) never mind in 2015 which is when your 787 would pitch up if you ordered it today........

People mock Ryanair management for not hedging their fuel, on the day that the $100 barrel of oil made it to the front page, more intelligent people than me would have thoght it suicidal to hedge fuel at $110......... This climate is catching out some serious players - recruitment for wannabees is not going to be high on the agenda.

[RVR800]

WWW

Those figures are acual - Oil dropped now by 11% !

[RVR800]

Oil Drops
BBC NEWS | Business | Oil recovers after four-day slump (http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7513608.stm)

FTSE Rise
BBC NEWS | Business | Market Data | Stock Markets | FTSE 100 (http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/fds/hi/business/market_data/stockmarket/3/one_month.stm)

Mortgage Dropped twice
BBC NEWS | Business | Nationwide to cut mortgage rates (http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7509538.stm)

Iran Problem Progress
BBC NEWS | World | Middle East | Iran hopeful about US 'approach' (http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/7513666.stm)

Growth Better says IMF
http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/751176


WWW I demand your bottle of Dom Pérignon !!!!

[Re-Heat]

I would look at volatility indices to see if the FTSE is really rising, or the oil price abating. I believe VIX is still massive, so any daily rise can mean little on a trend basis, and simply that sentiment is hugely volatile from day to day.

[breakbreak]

the only way to keep strong economy with rising fuel price is to increase energy efficiency, thats why US was affected more than Europe as they were slow to adopt various energy saving schemes.

question is, what would be the next step by the goverment to further improve energy efficiency? :)

[Deano777]

Agreed

GSPOTS, that was a pretty low thing to do by airing someone's PM in the public domain, what a snake :=

RexBanner refering to an earlier post (#47) of yours regarding who's going to fly all these new aircraft etc, I'd say the current crews are. Alot of new aircraft orders now are for fleet replacement programs to dispense of "old, dirty & fuel inefficient airframes" rather than for massive expansion.

Just my opinion :)

D777

[nich-av]

I did anticipate the house price crash and the recession that always follows. I am pleased that I got out of shares and into oil and gold. I know this winter will see the passing of several European airlines.


To correct your vocabulary, you actually posticipated them.

House pricing crashed long before you posted anything about it on this website and the housing market still survived although you were throwing totally apocalyptic prognoses.

You are a moderator, so you can make as many accounts on this website as you wish. Honestly, I don't see why anyone should endorse any of your unbacked comments and I have reasons to believe you may be endorsing yourself through numerous accounts.

You got out of shares and into oil and gold?
You don't think you can make any money by betting 1000 pound notes do you? Can an airline pilot afford to bet tenth of thousands of pounds into commodities?
I doubt it very much.

The minimum you had to invest into commodities as a private person to make any worthwile profit on oil is 100 000 pounds over 2 years. If you are really good you would have made 25 000 pounds. But that means that you would have made more percentage-wise than investment banks like ING.
It would be impossible and insane for an airline captain to even try to invest 50 000£ and make any profit out of it.
There's no place for the little man in commodities trading. Only huge banks, investment funds and professional private investors with very deep pockets but no family life could do that.

The only way I see you could have invested your efforts into rising oil prices is to get onto one of these online trading platforms where you bet 1000 bucks at a time.
Keyword: time.
As an airline pilot, how many available time do you have to even sit on a computer during market hours just to try to make 20 bucks or loose 100.
Is that what you do? Online trading is a matter of luck. You can't win. Only the guy that manages the online service and cashes on the spreads can win.

Now, before you post any further non-sense, why don't you find the guts to predict what is going to happen in 2010? or 2011?
What about giving some inside information of the airline you fly for instead of posting rumours that OTHER European airlines will go down?
Are you flying empty?
What's the average load factor of your airline compared to last year?
What does the increase of capacity at your airline look like?
How many are they (planning on) hiring?

Show some legacy as moderator of "professional pilot rumour network", through willingness to share real insider information.

That's a better way to earn the respect of your audience.

[Tony Hirst]

House prices will bottom out say May 2009I feel that is too pesimistic, what we have at the moment are a load of chancers making rediculous offers purely on the back of media stories. The banks cannot afford to keep borrowers at bay. The criteria for loans and mortgages will be relaxed soon, the fuss will be over around the end of the year. I might agree that house price mania maybe subdued for some time to come, but that is probably a good thing.

I get the feeling that most people and organisations generally do not feel any more insecure than they did a year ago. For example, the IT consultancy that I left for aviation now is expanding with nobody on the bench, 2005 was the last time it was so good for them. I'm, erm, pretty sure I wasn't causing that much damage.

As a side note, I really don't think oil and house prices are as relevant to the economy as some understandably believe. One cannot take individual specific commodities and apply their state to the state of the economy as a whole. I think the economy is now much more robust than it is generally given credit for, this is probably because there are now more powerful players in the world and the US and is increasingly a peer rather than a driver. Saying that, a slowdown will probably help rather than hinder in the medium to long term.

[Strobin Purple]

Hear hear! G Spot's Lost behaviour in making a PM public business shows appalling judgement and a distinct lack of breeding. What an oik!

[Flashdance9]

“This is the greatest crisis in aviation’s history; bigger than the Gulf wars, the attacks of September 11, 2001, severe acute respiratory syndrome and past oil shocks.”

Quote Tim Clark, President of Emirates. (Talking about current oil price crisis)

[nich-av]

Tim Clarke is CEO of one of a few airlines that's still paying oil at 30$ a gallon. They're buying Jet A straight from the factory.

Emirates ordered all those huge airplanes because they were anticipating this energy crisis... potential big failures in the U.S. and a slowdown in Europe for legacy airlines.

The problem with Europe is that legacy airlines can rely on only 1 market: longhaul. The money-makers are longhaul to Asia, Africa, South America and during good times North America.

Why are they losing money on shorthaul?
Because Easyjet, Ryanair, Wizzair and other LCC are taking most intra-European leisure pax for themselves.

So why do these airlines still fly shorthaul routes?
Because they need to feed their profitable longhaul routes.

That's why the European legacy airlines are on a merging frenzy.
They try to reduce and even compliment each partners on all longhaul routes.

Emirates is going to compete very hard against European airlines on routes to Asia and some routes to Africa maybe even direct routes to South America and north America from Dubai. They can push prices as low as they want as they have control of their fuel prices, which is their main strength.

So yes, Emirates hopes that this crisis turns out to be as big as it wishes it to be.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Oil prices are a sideshow to the main event that will cripple many airlines and see Wannabes on the dole. The main event is a Recession. The oil spike is but a factor in this.

It is relevant to consider the spike but it won't matter soon how cheap the tickets are or what the kerosene in the wings cost.

Welcome to 1990.

WWW

[spinnaker]

Just to pour a little petrol onto the fire. Revenue that government receives will shrink, and its spending will increase. That means even less for us, as an increase in direct taxation is an inevitability. The main losses to Gordon will be less revenue from capital gains tax, stamp duty, VAT, and death duties. Probably a few other things to throw in. At the same time, government will have to fork out more for tax credit, more for unemployment benefit, more for NHS, two expensive wars (a third pending). So tax will be going up, play around with the tax codes and chop a few allowances. By the time Gordons finished, and chuck in an inflation rate of 10% or more, the credit crunch wont matter, as no one will want a loan, unless of course its for a loaf of bread.

Happy days are ahead :(

[MIKECR]

So get out of the UK then. This country's been going down the tubes for some time now. Plenty opportunities elsewhere.

[Lurking123]

Mike, I think the point is that the situation is not unique to the UK.

[MIKECR]

I agree, however, I say again - there are plenty opportunities elsewhere, assuming people are willing to upsticks and relocate. The aviation world stretches a lot further than just the UK and US

[boogie-nicey]

I doubt the grass would be anymore greener elsewhere, even the current oasis of the Arabian desert they'll be tightening their belts. After all the like of Emirates, Qatar Airways, Gulf Air, etc are dependent on people outside of the middle east travelling thus a recession elsewhere will impact the Mid-East consequently stemming and reducing demand. This still leaves the ever flexible wannabe little choice to seek employment there. I would reiterate the same scenario for Asia a global slowdown is a global one and some will avoid the rising waters longer than others but I feel it'll eventually submerge all sooner or later.

In fact things appear so bleak that I am starting to redefine wannabes and not just recent graduates but also recent hires with a few houndreds hours on type under their belt, captains they most certainly are not and thus will be in the same muddle pool as the newbies. Awful I know but I just can't see how we're going to get out of this anytime soon. Therefore to up sticks and move elsehwhere would a stay of execution but the costs of relocating compared to the brief period of employment would reset you back to square one or even a few steps beyond that too.

[spinnaker]

Darling must be reading my posts

BBC NEWS | The Reporters | Robert Peston (http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/robertpeston/)

[clear prop!!!]

and well said Rex!!! :D:D:D:D

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Come to think of it, why not just remove Rex Banner from PPRuNe as all he seems to do it write in complaint about threads he doesn't like to read..

Rex - I love free speech so please feel free to carry on with your editorial input. I think it is incorrect though to assert that anyone has said there will never be a good time for Wannabes again. The golden years of 2004/5/6/early7 will return and those of us with a sustained interest in the business of Wannabes know this. We also know how 2001/2/3 and 1990/91/92/93/94 were for Wannabes. Depressingly desperate.

Sharing this experience can do nothing but make Wannabes better informed.

Why you are against this is perhaps more emotional than logical.

Cheers


WWW

[boogie-nicey]

Bye Rex :p

[spinnaker]

Come on, isnt all this a bit pointless now? This thread has been hijacked by the very people who like to shout so loudly in the downturn thread and it has been turned into the exact same thread as a consequence.

But its the truth, what's wrong with that? What is wrong with letting the younger wannabes know what is just around the corner. Is your reaction down to your own feelings of insecurity that is leading you into self denial?

If guys can accept the truth and face the facts, then they are better placed to deal with the future and make the correct decisions.

[Alex Whittingham]

I think Rex's point is that this thread 'Growing evidence that the upturn is upon us' was a light hearted counterpoint to the thread 'Growing evidence that the downturn is upon us' and that the doom and gloom merchants have migrated across and taken over. Maybe stick to your own thread?

'But it's the truth? What's wrong with that?' ..... er, well, it's not the truth. It's an opinion. It may be a widely held opinion and it may well turn out that some of it is correct but it's just an opinion and other people have different opinions. The general advice, though, I think is good. Wannabees should be very careful about putting themselves into too much debt, especially secured against property.

[spinnaker]

Alex, the only point I can pick up on is that the opinions increasingly become reality as each day passes. The HBOS rights issue snub being the latest. No body wants the bank, not even its own investors, and probably not the underwriters. We shall see.

I take your point about the intent of this thread, I was hoping for some light hearted banter myself.

Anyway, I am thinking of going back into aviation myself. Earlier this year I was asked by a couple of clients where they could park up their helicopters. My place of course! 28 day rule for the planning no problem. Discovered that they struck oil in my neck of the woods. Yippeee. Helipad in by spring 09. All I have to do is shift a few sheep out of the way, install some ground anchors to my chicken sheds. Thirty cows are busy mowing the grass as I write

'Spinnaker International Heliport' it has a sort of ring to it. :)

The there is definitely Growing Evidence That The Upturn Is Upon Me

[99jolegg]

I agree with Alex and Rex - the point being that although the information may well be true, there is already an existing thread for that purpose and there is no need to hijack another thread to make the same point and then claim that wannabes need to know when they can hardly ignore the bleatings to the tune of 00000s of pages!

Moderator, indeed... :hmm: :p

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

On the other thread about a downturn there were two views expressed. One agreeing and one disagreeing. Both were allowed full rein.

On this thread about an upturn there were two views expressed. One agreeing and one disagreeing.

Seems balanced to me.

If you WANT a thread titled Bullish Views Of The Wannabe Prospects (No Negative Views Please) - then start one. You are perfectly at liberty to do so. I certainly won't stand in your way.

On a thread about a downturn we had people stick their oar in saying Nonsense - things are great. Nobody whined their sorry ass about thread hijacking then...

WWW


ps I note Sweet Texas Crude is well down today - perhaps things really are looking up ;)

[Alex Whittingham]

My 'sorry ass'?? You're getting a bit aggressive aren't you WWW? Chill out :cool:

I take your point, as always.

[MIKECR]

Oil drops another $4 today, trading at $127 this afternoon. Short lived perhaps? Lets hope not!

Even my local tesco knocked 4 pence of a litre of diesel today. :)

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Sorry, didn't mean to sound aggressive.

Its not as if I have any personal interest in Wannabe prospects, I am neither a Wannabe nor someone involved in pilot training. My Bearish position is derived from a genuine belief and a desire to help Wannabes. A robust and informative debate is all I seek - not a flame war.

:p


WWW

[clear prop!!!]

Well some bad ..or good news

Top Champagne prices 'going through the roof' - decanter.com - the route to all good wine (http://www.decanter.com/news/263682.html)

:eek:


And the increase in price helped perhaps by those building aircraft???...


Aviation | Crisis? What crisis? | Economist.com (http://www.economist.com/business/displaystory.cfm?story_id=11750444)


Some interesting points in this article which highlight why the US aviation differs from our problems here!

[Shamrock 75]

Folks,
I have been monitoring many of the forums and threads on PPrune over the last view months in relation to prospects of getting a job with the airlines on completion of a ATPL.
I think its fair to say we all know the airlines are in a cyclical industry with up turns and downturns!
For Wannabe's .....the most important question is timing ! NO ONE knows for sure how things will pan out.
In my case, a friend of mine and i have both decided to leave our jobs and are going over to Florida in Sept for 1 year to study for the JAA ATPL's. We are both in our early thirties and its a case of doing it now or never. Whatever happens ...........i feel we would have regretted this chance if we had decided not to train this year. So yes, we are taking a chance, and its a big chance but its the same for everyone else when starting flight training. There are no guarantees in life but you have go with your instinct !
So hopefully in 18months time things will be more positive.
Good luck to all Wannabe's and thanks to the folks who put many constructive points accross on this topic.

Shamrock 75
:ok:

[eikido]

Better to regret something you did than something you did not do.

Eikido

[eikido]

And number 2!
When i started studying as a civilengineer it was almost impossible getting a job! It was really really really difficult. I was confident that i was not going to get a job, but i continued anyway because i loved it.
When i was released out into the market, i got 4! job offers and i'm getting more all the time!! So i did not expect to get a job but got all of a sudden 4!! Now that i think of it, wasn't it logical?

Eikido

[breakbreak]

Well done, stick to civil engineering as Sweden is a big place and needs them unlike some countries that are already overbuilt and overcrowded.

[eikido]

I was actually thinking of starting a pilot program :)
Haha.

I hope it's a merit being a civilengineer when i look for a pilot job:}

Eikido

[breakbreak]

nobody gives a toss about civilengineering in airlines.
if you go for airline course, make sure you get top marks for ATPL theory (around or above 90%) and get first series IR pass. None of this is easy at all but very important, see the thread below for job requirements.

http://www.pprune.org/forums/interviews-jobs-sponsorship/336246-atpl-grade-entry-requirements.html#post4283614

in order to succeed, choose quality schools and avoid inexperienced instructors.

[Lafyar Cokov]

For goodness sake - don't you people learn???? If you come on here spouting such things as "Oil Prices Down" etc etc you will be attacked by someone who knows far more than you!!!!

I sometimes wonder if people bother trawling back through 38 pages!!!

:}:}:}

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

US Light Sweet was $77 in the third week of July 2007 with all sorts of nightmare headlines about the prospect of $100 oil soon.

Today it stands at $124.

In what way is oil down exactly?


WWW

[nich-av]

First you say:
Oil prices are a sideshow to the main event that will cripple many airlines and see Wannabes on the dole. The main event is a Recession. The oil spike is but a factor in this.

It is relevant to consider the spike but it won't matter soon how cheap the tickets are or what the kerosene in the wings cost.

Welcome to 1990.

Then you go:

US Light Sweet was $77 in the third week of July 2007 with all sorts of nightmare headlines about the prospect of $100 oil soon.

Today it stands at $124.

In what way is oil down exactly?

Sorry to say so, but you start to sound like some old people running for president.

Last week oil standed at 144$.
Today it stands at 124$.

Oil is down, and the trend is expected to continue as the situation in the Middle-East seems to become positive, people are regaining confidence in the share-market and are starting to secure shares at very low cost.

The gas at the pump in the US is showing the first decreases in several years.

Oil stocks are greater than ever, the fact that the government refuses to open emergency supplies because there is no shortage and the fact that both presidential candidates now recognise that oil prices are fueled by speculation is having an effect on this.

Wannabe "I know it all" economists translating their on-the-job attitude onto this website will be proven wrong. I'd hate to sit on the right seat of an airliner next to such negative people.

In the U.S., we are already preparing for the biggest shortage of pilots in history around end 2009/ beginning 2010, after this short-lived slowdown.
Regional airlines will suffer alot and many will have to import cockpit workforce.

American flight schools are emptier than ever of domestic student pilots. Most schools that have been able to maintain student volumes are full of Asian students. Only 4% of students at Embry-Riddle, one of the most reknown schools in America, are domestic student pilots.

[nich-av]

July 23 (Bloomberg) -- The Arctic may hold 90 billion barrels of oil, more than all the known reserves of Nigeria, Kazakhstan and Mexico combined, and enough to supply U.S. demand for 12 years, the U.S. Geological Survey said.


Bloomberg.com: Canada (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601082&sid=aqEDMhrCvp28)

Will the oil market react?

I can see a strong decline to below 120$ later today if the mainstream media picks up the news and broadcasts it extensively.

It'll be an interesting day.

[MIKECR]

As much as it maybe pains you to admit it, WWW, the price of oil is moving in the right direction. Since the end of June there has been a general decrease of nearly $25 a barrell. Off course, the price is still very high, and volatile, as the Iran missile incident proved. The global demand however, particularly in the US has dropped, perhaps the yanks have finally had a wake up call. As has the rest of the world by the looks of it. But in saying all this, it could off course all go horribly wrong yet!:eek: But for the timebeing, my glass will always be 'half full'!:)

[Lafyar Cokov]

Down as in - was $146 / barrel - now $126 / barrel - I'm not sure about your maths but in my book that is DOWN!!!

It is not in any way fantastic, or mean that everything is now rosy and no airlines will struggle/go bust but please don't deny that (for the time being at least) the constant upward trend of fuel prices has reversed.

[nich-av]

The real fact is this, the job market, particularly for new FATPL's is bloody terrible.

I tend to disagree.

There's plenty of corporate and instructing jobs available out there.

It's when a wannabe expects to start on a B737/A320 that things may seem depressing. If an ab-initio is willing to compromise, he can find a job very easily.

Many bizjet operators are hiring, all you need to fork out is 15000€ for a Citation TR.

This is of course not an option for the guys who owe the bank astronomic amounts. They will need a high paying job right from the beginning to be able to pay back their loans.

Then there's plenty of jobs in Africa, but many ab-initio's find it too far from home. Sorry, but Africa is a paradise. Sunny and warm everyday, tax-free wages, cheap living. Being away from mommy and daddy can feel lonely sometimes, I understand, but whining kids don't belong in a cockpit.

[Grass strip basher]

Stock trading down 6% today....

EASYJET

THIRD QUARTER INTERIM MANAGEMENT STATEMENT

Highlights:


* Total passenger numbers up by 16% with continued strong growth in Gatwick and
mainland Europe in particular
* Total revenue per seat grew by 12% to £46.36 compared to the same period last
year
* Total revenue up 32% driven by strong ancillary performance and the
strengthening Euro
* Revenue and costs excluding fuel performing to expectations and over 50% of
the expected full year fuel cost increase of £185 million has been offset
* Capacity growth reduced significantly for the Winter 2008 / 2009 to around 4%
to 6% with flexibility to scale back further


Three months ending June 30th 2008 June 30th 2007 Change %


Passengers (m) 1 11.5 9.9 16
Seats (m) 13.8 11.7 18
Load factor (%) 2 83.5 84.5 (1) ppt

Total revenue (£m) 3 641 487 32
Passenger revenue (£m) 3 538 441 22
Ancillary revenue (£m) 3 103 46 124
Including checked bag charge

Total revenue per seat (£) 46.36 41.46 12
Passenger revenue per seat (£) 38.91 37.58 4
Ancillary revenue per seat (£) 7.45 3.87 93
Including checked bag charge

Total revenue per passenger (£) 55.74 49.19 13

Average operating aircraft 154.1 126.6 22
ASKs (bn) 14.8 11.7 26
RPKs (bn) 12.6 9.9 27
Average sector length (km) 1,069 993 8


Commentary:

Third Quarter revenue and network performance

Passenger numbers grew 16% in the quarter to 11.5 million. The majority of the
growth was focused around London Gatwick, France, Italy and Spain. Total non-UK
originating passengers increased by 25% in the quarter and UK originating
passengers grew by 9%.

Despite the timing of Easter which has had the effect of diluting yields, total
revenue per seat continued to grow strongly, up 12% to £46.36 in the quarter,
with passenger revenue up by 4% per seat. Ancillary revenue grew by 93% in the
quarter to £7.45 per seat, mainly driven by the introduction of the checked bag
charge from 1st October 2007. The checked bag charge increased to £5 per bag at
the end of March. A significant proportion of easyJet's passenger revenues are
Euro denominated and unit revenues have benefited from the strengthening of the
Euro. Total revenue trends on a constant currency basis have also improved as
shown in the table below.


% change vs F '07 Q1 F'08 Q2 F '08 Q3 F'08
Total revenue per seat 1% 16% 12%
and at constant currency -1% 9% 5%


easyJet now operates 356 routes from 20 bases and revenue performance is
encouraging across the network. London, especially Gatwick, continues to perform
well with particular strength on the former GB Airways sectors and on routes to
France and Italy. Overall, the UK regional bases are delivering good results
particularly at Newcastle and in our Scottish bases. Performance at Belfast
remains challenging as capacity has increased in the market, however
encouragingly easyJet's loads are ahead of the competition on key overlapping
routes. France and Italy are delivering strong revenue per seat improvement.
Madrid remains challenging however there has been recent improvement in revenue
per seat and easyJet's load factors continue to be above those of its
competitors.

Network development

Network expansion continues to focus on primary centres such as Milan Malpensa
and Paris Charles de Gaulle. At Milan Malpensa easyJet has recently introduced
its 11th aircraft, increased capacity substantially and by December 2008 easyJet
will have 15 aircraft based there.

Overall, capacity growth for the Winter 2008 / 2009 has been reduced and is
currently planned to be in the region of 4% to 6%. Flying at less profitable
times has been thinned and easyJet will reallocate capacity from weaker
performing bases towards higher value opportunities including Gatwick, France
and Italy. At Stansted, capacity will be reduced by 12% this winter and at the
beginning of June easyJet announced that the future of its base at Dortmund is
under review. In the current environment flexibility is vital and easyJet
continues to review its schedule and may make further adjustments both to
eliminate unprofitable flying and to seize any opportunities that may arise as
capacity exits the market.

Outlook

easyJet's underlying business continues to perform well and in line with
expectations. Second half total revenue per seat is expected to show mid teens
growth compared to the same period last year. Costs ex fuel, have in the second
half been under pressure from increased airport charges not least at Gatwick, a
decision easyJet is challenging through a judicial review process. easyJet will
continue to be relentless in its approach; reducing cost and increasing
efficiency.

Due to the rise in the oil price, easyJet's fuel costs have increased by around
£185 million for the full year and naturally this will drive a reduction in
margins. However, easyJet has offset over 50% of the increase in fuel through
revenue and cost performance and will deliver pre-tax profit before one-off
costs in the range of £110 million to £120 million, assuming an average
un-hedged fuel price of $1,280 per metric tonne for the second half of the
financial year. GB Airways is now integrated into easyJet's operating model and
one-off integration costs remain in line with the original guidance of £12
million.

Winter 2008 / 2009 will be challenging for the whole airline sector due to
higher fuel costs. easyJet currently has 28% of its 2009 fuel requirement hedged
at an average price of $1,265 per metric tonne.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

UK retail sales figures out today for June are the worst ever recorded.

US house prices are falling harder than in the Great Depression.

Oil is nearly twice what it was a year ago.

Stock markets are in Bear Markets.

Unemployment is rocketing.

I could go tediously on. We have a house price crash. We have a recession. We will therefore have a number of airline busts come Autumn/Winter and for Wannabes this will be a dire crisis far deeper than the Sept11th 2001 event.

That's in stone.

WWW

[Lafyar Cokov]

www - you didn't ever work for the Daily Mail did you?

Your statements above - while possibly true in some cases do need a little balance.

UK retail sales figures out today for June are the worst ever recorded.

Since records began - in 1986

US house prices are falling harder than in the Great Depression.

Debateable - although the fact that we still are in an inflationary economy and during the Great Depression there was de-flation due to the appaling finacial position then this can be made to appear that in 'real terms' the US housing market is falling faster than it was in 1931

Oil is nearly twice what it was a year ago.

Nearly twice - well $77 * 1.65 = $124


Stock markets are in Bear Markets.

As they have been for about 4 years

Unemployment is rocketing.

Unemployment has shown a steady rise althouh employment is also up at record levels.

I could go tediously on. We have a house price crash. We have a recession. We will therefore have a number of airline busts come Autumn/Winter and for Wannabes this will be a dire crisis far deeper than the Sept11th 2001 event.

That's in stone.

You do go tediously on!!! :} What you have stated in your last paragraph may well be very well thoughtout opinion but it is not 'In Stone'

I am not doubting that things are not fantastic and that any Wannabe would be a complete fool to mortgage his parents house to get himself into 20 years debt on the off chance of a job - but please, can we not devalue this argument by having a) A list of tabloid style doom and gloom 'headlines' without the 'facts' being fully substantiated and B) Every time someone states something that does not support ones argument - don't immediatly dismiss anything said - it is not constructive and just looks petty!

[Lost man standing]

Can we all quote some cherry-picked economic statistics?

Bank of America's shares up 7pc after better-than-expected results, with Citigroup and Wachovia up 2.5pc and 4.55pc respectively off the back of this. So the banking crisis isn't all it was supposed to be.

Gold futures (expert judgement of what will happen to the haven in a tempest) down $23.30 at $925.20 per ounce.

The dollar has risen against the Euro, 0.6379 up from 0.6336 a couple of days ago. Up to more then £0.50 against sterling.

Crude prices have dropped by about 15% from their peak. More importantly serious men are now starting to mention the word "bubble", previously only seen in right-wing websites. Stockpiling is therefore a lot less likely, and upward pressure is likely to be relieved.

What effect will these have on the aviation industry? Except for the last one, which if it continues is bound to improve things compare continued artificial inflation of oil prices, we don't know, and moreover the effect will be different in different parts of the world. This is an international site for an international industry.

Having said all that I would not recommend anyone to start training now simply for the career. If you love the flying it is worth starting up, maybe part time to be ready in 3 or 4 years. Oh, and don't buy shares in companies offering integrated courses!

[MIKECR]

www,

Once again, your are making sweeping generalised statements. UK house prices are not falling as you say. In England perhaps, in the rest of the UK, no. Here in Scotland(yes, we are part of the uk!), house prices remain strong, and continue to increase at a steady rate. The grossly over inflated English market is undoubtedly getting its come uppings but dont tarn us all with the same brush.

As for unemployment, I really wonder which figures you loook at at times. According to every page i've just looked at, unemployment figures issued this month are down 0.2 % in comparison to this time last year. I dont get your 'rocketing' figures at all im afraid. But then again, you are the self appointed prophet of doom.

Whilst im not in denial that the economy is a downturn, there is a balance to strike between fact and that of the gutter trash media hipe that we seem to be subjected to every day.

[RVR800]

It's clear that interest rates will now fall so thats good news for those wanting to borrow money to finance things like pilot training

It's possible to get some good bargains at times like this - no point in buying at the top of the market

As oil falls in price it wil make flying seem affordable again and may save the airlines who are struggling. Its likely that Easyjet will now do better than those predicting oil rises to 200 dolllars might have expected. Good news for flight crew in that airline! ANOTHER 1.5% fall today aone. I may get that SUV after all

There is a lot of oil in the arctic now available - it is now more accessible because the ice is melting

FTSE rocketed yesterday although some profit taking today - cant go up everyday I suppose

Oh the IMF have revise our positive growth figures in the UK up and so there is no recession on the horizon - they are economiste we are just pilots

[boogie-nicey]

Have you people such short memories...? Only last week the biggest denier and cheerleader for talking up the economy was forced to admit that the economic outlook was "more profound" than at first thought. This decline of oil price is a temporary glitch as speculators push it further down to make ever more money by taking a 'short' position. This will be followed by a thrust upwards when they revert to a 'long' position. It's all part of the bigger picture ... we are not in control but entrapped amongst this economic ghost train.

To simply start talking about pusuing a loan is very reckless at this stage of the game. Even if that is your desired course of action then just give it a few more months to calm down. Watch the industry and see how they react to all the economic data and news, maybe they've been spooked and won't be so willing to take on newbies for the foreseeable future. Couple this to the more global accessibility of employees and new working practices/agreements. Perhaps in the mid term you might be tempted to think somewhat differently about where you'll work, for whom and under what terms. Who knows maybe the flexible contractor setting would be all the rage for the coming years with a few senior captains as permanent staff.

I understand and empathise with you all but please stop trying to be the first galloping white knight into battle. Just don't fall over in this game, it's hard enough to keep going but a bad or untimely decision could have significant ramifications for the rest of your training/career. Look at all the Ryanair wannabes, flying perhaps a maximum of 500 hrs whilst living wherever they send you and paying back your mountainous debts. It's not cool when working is just breaking even and you really have no reserves. I accept it works for some but all I'm saying is be careful chaps and chapesses ;) Other than that be cool .... :p
(the wife's starting to have moan might need to dash her off to the hospital for baby No. 2 and last one :p)

[MIKECR]

boogie-nicey,

I dont think any of us are looking through rose tinted glasses. I dont think any of us are even denying that theres a downturn. I think we are however providing the flipside to the likes of www's constant one sided ramblings and desire to rid the world of wannabees. Training is still affordable and provided people are sensible about it, why shouldnt they train? I did my fatpl for 30k, its perfectly achievable.

[G-SPOTs Lost]

Well.........

Instead of all us Monday Morning Economists (Who lets face it - none of us have got a clue [even those who think they do]) trying to decide whether its a good idea to train or not. Lets leave it the financial experts (i.e. the people who's money we are trying to borrow for training) shall we?

1. Anybody who has approached HSBC for a 30k unsecured loan for a modular fATPL in the last month please shout the outcome here.

2. Anybody who has approached HSBC for a 60K secured loan for a integrated fATPL in the last month please shout the outcome here.

I'm more than happy to be proved wrong based on FACT, but if HSBC thinks its a bad idea to train now - who are we to argue.

And as to those shouting great things at oil being $124 per barrel, then please give it a rest....that level is UNSUSTAINABLE for a whole load of airlines, its just that $145 is even more UNSUSTAINABLE for a whole load of airlines. Anything over $100 means the airlines are operating (the actual aircraft) for NO PROFIT and they might as well send the airbuses & boeings back and put the capital employed in a Post Office high interest account.....

Lets face it demand is huge and it only takes a missile test east of Dubai to send the cost soaring again

Personally I think this thread is irresponsible (Thats my opinion, one that I'm perfectly entitled to) because there is no EVIDENCE that the upturn is upon us or even that the downturn has finished yet.

Just takes one Major or large regional anywhere in the EU to make redundancies or go under and wannabees in training will be up the creek.

Topslide - thankyou for probably the most balanced words currently printed on both threads. A very close family member of mine is a very senior FO for a bucket and spade charter company and has found himself checking his seniority number every other day...

[MIKECR]

topslide,

Yet again, the world doesnt exist beyond the UK with this thread does it. You are referring to purely uk based jet jobs. What about Turboprop and corporate/biz jobs(booming just now)? What about looking for opportunities overseas? It always comes back to the same old attitude of theres nothing else with wings other than an airbus or 737. Im not advocating that people go out and borrow 100k, im suggesting(and always have done) that an atpl is perfectly achievable for much less, provided people are sensible. There are still opportunities out there and the point of this thread should be to encourage people to look at cheaper alternatives, not hammer them down and tell them to forget about being a pilot its pointless...the world ends tmrw...blah blah!

[nich-av]

You HAVE to bear in mind that the Frozen ATPL at Oxford is in excess of £80,000 with accomodation included.


No one forces you to go to Oxford.
There's plenty of schools that will train you for half that money.

If you train for 40k, a 20k job can be good enough.
If you pay 80k for training, you'll have to look for a job paying at least 30K if you don't want to live with mommy & daddy... but you can forget it: no airline pays its ab-initio's more than 20K.
With interests costs where they are, you'll loose 1000£ a month over 10 years... which is of course a stupid investment.


By going to Oxford YOU have decided to put yourself in that situation, you can not blame the economy.

Buying high cost flight training while you can't afford it is no better than buying a house you can barely afford to buy and to face foreclosure when interest rates go up and you can't afford to repay your mortgage anymore.

Many major airlines are not recruiting, but why does your first job have to be in one of the major airlines?

Plenty of corporate jobs out there, try this: Search Air Charter Operators (http://www.aircharterguide.com/Operators)

Don't hesitate to call operators.

The situation of the ab-initio market is stable now. It scares the sh*t out of me everytime I hear that a 200 hour ab-initio is starting on the A320/B737. Airlines do that only when they are desperate.

[MIKECR]

You really dont get me do you topslide. My purpose of posting is not to tell people one way or another whether to train or not(WWW does that perfectly well by himself!), i couldnt give a damn what they do personally. My point is to highlight that training costs are perfectly achievable on a budget and that as it stands(at the moment), there are still opportunities out there to be had. If the world go's tit*s up then so be it. Nobody knows what way its going to go, least of all me, you or www. And I have never been a fan of the integtrated monster machines that rip people off of 100k, and sstr's etc, i think its absolutely horrendous they can get away with it.

[G-SPOTs Lost]

MikeCR

Bizjets is my particular corner of the industry and to be honest I can safely say that only 6 months ago it was absolutely buzzing with Jobs even for 200 hr ex cadets (No opinion either way but very unusual in bizjets) with good positions being fairly plentiful.

Right now its crap..... Nobody dares move even for more money, it just seems everybody has gone into hedgehog mode.

Flight International last year probably had a couple of pages for GA/Corporate jobs each and every week...now maybe one or two individual ads for the ME and Africa - feel free :yuk:

Spoke to a very good freind yesterday who reckons his charter outfit is going to make a huge loss this year because of the last three months 9 months hard work for nothing.....Its like somebody has flicked a switch at the moment. Hopefully it will recover

[tonker]

Jet2 hasn't stopped recruiting at all.

Profits of £11.8m announced today with loads up 30%, share price rising 33% and fuel hedged to winter 09. Royal mail contract until 2010. Happy times:ok:

[BitMoreRightRudder]

It's the giving impressionable people false hope I don't like. For what it's worth, it wasn't you I was referring to as a moron. It's in response to post right back at the beginning.

Which post would that be topslide?

[tupues]

Where are all these turboprob jobs??? I think any low hours pilot with half a brain has put jets to the back of their minds. People go on about 'stop thinking about shiny jets' but where are the rusty turboprob jobs???

[nich-av]

Chances are you may not get THE JOB YOU WANT.

Plenty of jobs out there, examples:

JetAlliance - quality has a name (http://www.jetalliance.at/)
GAMA RECRUITMENT (http://gama-recruitment.propserver4.com/current_vacancies.php)

and hundreds more.




There' s a pilot shortage in the corporate branche, but graduates of Oxford, KLS, PTC don't even consider it as an option. They want to fly a big jet...
The corporate branche is having a hard time keeping its experienced crew and is therefore constantly seeking new cockpit personnel.

Flight schools also have a hard time keeping their instructors, so plenty of jobs available there. OAA is featuring instructor jobs advertisings in several revues.

But I agree, you got to be very lucky to get into Flybe, BA, BMI nowadays.

[RVR800]

BBC NEWS | Business | Oil prices slip to seven-week low (http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7525988.stm)

Oh and Mortgage rates fall for the third time.....

BBC NEWS | Business | Halifax cuts mortgage rates again (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7525151.stm)

[Notsonew]

Look for the trucks carrying clay drainage pipes - that is the sign of an upturn. I suppose the modern version is count the cranes in the middle of cities.

Look for the differences in this downturn.

60% of homeowners have equity compared to 10% in the last recession.

More pensioners wanting to fly to their second homes.

The big problem is that in the future the Government cannot afford to pay the pensions of their civil servants/ military.

The Companies paying fat pensions will find the pension pot has reduced in value.

The home owners will find less and less equity in their homes.

Still, forecasting the Economy is as difficult as applying a model based on experience to forecast the weather.

Those with money will make money. Those without will have to dream.

[RVR800]

National Housing Federation (Fed) - Average house prices to rise by 25 per cent by 2013 (http://www.housing.org.uk/default.aspx?tabid=212&mid=828&ctl=Details&ArticleID=1301)

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

National Turkey Federation - Christmas To Be Abolished by 2013


There is a reason why press releases like this appear on a Monday. The Sunday skeleton staff of the press are desperate for anything to print in Mondays edition. Wait for the Nationwide figures for July which will be out on Thursday.

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/graphs/generated/homepage.png


WWW

[Lurking123]

WWW, the linked picture doesn't work. It would appear that one has to be a member of the housepricecrash dot co dot uk forum :ok: I gather it sits next to pessamistsrus dot com :)

[nich-av]

Emirates orders 30 A333's + converts 30 A350XWB options into orders.

Latest estimates indicate that Ryanair still has over 130 aircraft on order.

AEA reports strong numbers for May:


EUROPEAN AIRLINE TRAFFIC IN MAY

The Association of European Airlines has released traffic and capacity data for its members in May 2008.
AEA reports that the market situation remains difficult to read, as the May result turned out significantly stronger than expected, while preliminary June figures are substantially weaker.
The overall traffic growth in May was 5.1%, and coupled with a capacity increase of 5.5%, this meant that load factors were just marginally down, by 0.2 points to 74.6%.
Cross-border traffic within Europe regained its momentum with a 7.4% increase and a load factor improvement; otherwise, it was on the smaller traffic flows that the main increases were to be found: Near and Middle East, Mid and South Atlantic, and Africa.
The high-volume markets across the North Atlantic and to/from the Far East grew much more slowly, at 3.3% and 2.8% respectively.
AEA members’ domestic traffic within their home countries continued to decline on aggregate, with a minus 4.3%.
May load factors were higher than previous year on short/medium haul routes – other than Domestic – but were down in all long haul markets with the exception of the Mid Atlantic.
Preliminary results for June paint a very different picture. Figures derived from weekly reports point to a very sharp fall-off in the growth rate on intra-European services and traffic losses on North Atlantic and Far East. Overall, June may see little or no growth in traffic volume, but load factors appear set to record a substantial loss.



Capacity and traffic is still increasing, a positive sign for wannabe's.

http://files.aea.be/News/PR/Pr08-028.pdf

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Well its Thursday and the house price figures for July are out. MINUS 1.7%


From the Peak of last year in Sept 2007 to June 2008 the Nationwide figures showed a fall of 12.1%. Now add July and we have a fall from last years peak to today of 13.8% which makes this the fastest house price crash ever recorded in post-war UK history.

The graph above is dropping steeply and won't stop until it has gone below the long term trend line of average house price equalling 3.5 times average earnings. From a peak ratio of 6:1 they will fall by around 50% in real terms (adjusting for inflation) to get back to long term averages.

The sun shines, Big Brother enters another season and most people have no idea that the economic situation is actually worse than the 1990 crash/recession.

Be ready for the fallout.

NO JOBS FOR PILOTS.


WWW

[speedrestriction]

From Flight Global (http://www.flightglobal.com/articles/2008/07/31/226248/alteon-puts-figures-on-future-airline-pilot-and-engineer.html). The more cyniclly minded amongst you might suspect Alteon have a very real interest in talking up the market.

As an aside, when this debate started many months ago I was certain that WWW was being absurdly pessimistic. Every day since I've been getting a little less certain :uhoh:

sr

[JohnRayner]

Look at the graph posted by WWW. Now, this isn't scientific OR mathematical by any stretch of the imagination, but consider this:

The graph shows 3 peaks, 3 troughs. The peaks get slowly higher, each trough (corresponding to a bad point in recent economic history) is relatively deeper and definitely wiiiider than the one preceding it.

The peaks come 1975ish, 1980ish, 1990ish, 2007ish

the troughs go up in appx 10 grand increments

So, are average house prices going to drop to around 80-90k, and is it going to take 20-ish years for the next peak to come around?

And yes, I am having a quiet day at work. And yes, I've already said it's all eyeballed rather than calculated, but if you believe in economic cycles, the you've got to wonder what's coming...

[WindSheer]

I think there is another point that we are all missing, besides fuel and recession etc.
The 4 big uk charter players (with the exception of Monarch), have merged to become 2. These 4 airlines have been drip feeding in new recruits for the past 4-5 years, whether it be from regionals, or direct from OAT/Cabair etc. These 2 huge airlines are now looking at hull losses, that will inevitably bring a few job losses...never mind recruitment.

This is just another uk airline 'issue' that combined with the 'kellogs credit crunch' makes large training commitments a very difficult decision at the moment.

Personally, I am going to finish my PPL in a few months, and hold fire.....I currently work at the front end of trains...business is booming, although I bloody hate it!:uhoh:

[MIKECR]

Well on a positive note, amidst all the doom mungers, my local garage has just dropped a futher 4 pence a litre on petrol and diesel. Thats now £1.22 a litre for diesel, and a few quid off my monthly fuel bill compared to the last 2 or 3 months.

Hard hat on now.......waiting for someone to tell me the worlds going to end tomorrow!!:ouch::ouch:

[Grass strip basher]

LONDON, August 1 (Reuters) - British Airways <BAY.L> posted
a fall of 88 percent in first quarter profit and said the
trading environment was the worst the industry has ever faced as
high oil prices, the economic slowdown and weak consumer
confidence hit.
The British carrier reduced its annual revenue target to 3
percent from 4 percent previously and said it would raise ticket
prices during the year to recoup losses from a planned 3 percent
reduction in winter capacity.
"This is the worst trading environment the industry has ever
faced and fares are likely to go up as we reduce some winter
capacity and cope with unprecedented oil prices but we won't be
grounding any aircraft," CEO Wille Wlash told reporters on a
conference call.
Profit before tax for the three months to end-June fell to
37 million pounds from 298 million pounds in Q1 last year,
missing an average forecast of 49 million pounds supplied by BA.
Analysts' forecasts for pretax profit ranged from 16 million
pounds to 87 million.
The group's operating profit fell to 35 million pounds from
255 million during the same period last year but revenue rose
2.8 percent to 2.26 billion.
Walsh confirmed talks with Spanish carrier Iberia <IBLA.MC>
about a potential all-share merger are underway but said it was
"too early to say what impact it will have on the business in
terms of jobs."

[JB007]

..but said it was "too early to say what impact it will have on the business in terms of jobs."

It'll be huge! Could be some nice payouts for some guys who want to get out if they consider a voluntary redundancy scheme...

Beware the word "Synergies"...recruitment in the UK may be slow for quite some time...

[expedite08]

Walshy and his BA cronies could do with loosing a bob or two, teach them the meaning of money and not greed!!! :mad::mad::mad:

Might make them slash seat prices and thier stealthy fuel surcharges!!

[Grass strip basher]

Yeah the fuel surcharges are BA greed not because the oil price has gone up :ugh::rolleyes:
And BA losing money is going to be good for pilots how exactly??
company losing money so answer = slash seat prices to lose more money = less pilot jobs does it not??

[topgun23]

Am I being naieve but didn't they report they still made 37 million pound bt profit??!!
Its not like they're in the red.Same with all these other companies.They are still making money, just not as much as they would like.
Swings and round-abouts.:)

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

The capital deployed would make that a day in interest in my old Griffin Savers Account...

Just as in the early 90's recession there will be a DanAir and and an AirEurope go bust and the consequences for Wannabes will be the same. Dire.

I'd actually go so far as to say it would be worth suspending your training now rather than just not starting it. Anything that has a time expiry such as the ATPL exam passes or the IR and which are a pain/expensive to renew would be a risk potentially.

WWW

[Lurking123]

topgun, £37M is such a marginal profit it is scary. BA are probably hitting about 2-3% of turnover. Compare that with your local pub which is probably making a 40-50% profit on the food it sells.

[boogie-nicey]

Ye old Speedbird, fine ales and food (garden at the rear) ;)

[RVR800]

Oil stil falling now at 122.71

Interest rates predicted to fall

Mortgage rates falling NW and Halifax

Some places buck the trend think when were property prices in London 3X average salary or in Cheltenham ... umm not for some time?

:bored:

[Another TD]

Oil stil falling now at 122.71

Interest rates predicted to fall

Mortgage rates falling NW and Halifax

There you go Willie and MOL have got it wrong.....I'm off to borrow £65000 and start training for that guaranteed flying job.

[jonjam]

With reference to the graph about house prices, the last downturn in the previous recession didn't have our current 340,000 demand for houses that are needed for our ever growing population..."basic fundamentals." Demand is currently far outweighing supply. The reason for Persimmon, whimpy and Barretts laying employees off is purely due to the mortgage lenders. Postponing building projects is the major difference to the previous downturn as the general consensus that once the money is there the downturn will be much shorter than the previous occasions.

[mustflywillfly]

Haven't been on PPrune for a while, to busy hammering the Bristol QB.

Is someone taking the piss with this thread title?!!? Upturn!!! Brilliant, pure genius. If there is an upturn in the next two years I will slam my knob in a car door.

Anyway back to studying seeing as I've paid for the exams I might as well do them. Glad I'm not saying "seeing as I've paid for the integrated course I might as well do it".

[cockney steve]

Jonjam (post144) has it right! The change in recent post-war morals has seen a startling increase in family split-ups. This, coupled with the general increase in housing-stock,plus the ageingand outmoded,energy-ineficient prewar and earlier housing, lead one to the obvious conclusion.

The housebuilding-capacity of this country (land AND logistics-that is, labour and materials supply) is barely adequate to fulfill the need for replacement,let alone increased demand (singletons occupying accomodation once housing a whole family)

The cretinous politician who decided that tenants of low-rent Council -housing,should have the right toa purchase subsidised by the rest of the ratepaying population, has a lot to answer for....local authorities no longer build estates,to sell at a loss .

Incidentally, jonjam, the company is WIMPEY.....legend has it,far from being "whimps",-it was an acronym for We Import More Paddies Each Year.

Ah, for the golden years of the early 60's :p

[JB007]

Incidentally, jonjam, the company is WIMPEY.....

Not the Burger outlet then...

The change in recent post-war morals

I've never heard that before! Fantastic...hope you don't mind if I use that...

mustflywillfly This thread was a tongue in cheek reply after a thread called "Growing Evidence The Downturn Is Upon Us" in an attempt to encourage some positivity...it worked don't you think..??!! So yes, a Micky take, so don't do the knob in the car door thing unless you really want to.

[geordiejet]

Hardly - right to buy homes are sold at market value.

The subsidy paid by the council is dependant on what you put in. If you pay £5 a week, and have done all your life - the discount is very little. If you have paid the full rate - you get a large discount.

Also, any upgrades and repairs paid by the council are deducted from this.

So, any subsidies, are likely to be very small - and in the long run probable saves the "ratepayer" - as the council no longer have to pay their rip-off contractors for sub standard repair jobs, or upgrade the houses - all this responsibility goes to the new homeowner, and the council/govt have no more to do with it.

And if you are implying that it is RTBs who are causing the shortage in housing then you are very wrong - most RTBs buy the house they have already inhabited - that nobody else would buy.

It's privatisation - no different to British Gas - or the railways. The govt is no longer responsible, saving itself money in the long run.

Maybe we should sack the cretinous govt leaders who allow people to buy multiple properties - cutting supply - and raising prices. And now - they are a major contributing factor of this credit crises. Maybe we should tackle that first?

No - it's the poor we need to target. Nothing changes - ey?

[clear prop!!!]

Hardly - right to buy homes are sold at market value.

Bollocks!!!....well at least where I come from.

My sister bought an ex council house on the private market for £98,000

The bloke next door was given the opportunity to buy for £11,000!!!

BUT.....he was, and I quote,.. 'not prepared to give the bu**ers the satisfaction of ripping him off'!!!!!!!

There is another world out there who have not got a clue!!!!!:rolleyes:

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

When Tony Blair entered Downing Street in 1997 there were around 30,000 Buy To Let mortgage approvals per annum in the UK. Last year there were 30,000 short of 1 million. That bit is different this time for sure. Every single one of those relies on capital appreciation as part of their financial proposition. With that prop removed they make no sense as yields are far less than money in the post office. As BTL portfolios are liquidated following insolvency the market is going to be swamped with distress sales.

Just look at any of the national property auctions and you'll see 50% losses going under the hammer by order of the mortgagees. Which is why rents are falling as those properties come back on the market for rents that only have to support half the mortgage finance cost.

Other than that its exactly the same as any house price bubble. Irrational investment made on leveraged debt.

There are no shortage of houses. People don't have to live alone. Poles don't have to stay in the country for jobs that no longer exist. Second homes are not essential. Holiday homes abroad make little sense for most without capital appreciation. The unwinding of the bubble is now apparent to most though a suprising number cling to the orthodoxy of the past decade.

What most still do not see is that for average prices to fall to normal average wage multiples of 3.5 you need a fall of 40%. This is inconceivable to many though it is true and essentially simple both to understand and to observe in the historical records.

The demand for houses is as unlimited as the demand for a Ferrari and private jet. The need and the ability to pay are totally different yet in a market they are the only arbiters of 'demand'.

The market is clearly signaling that prices are going to fall further and rationally buyers are sitting out the market as are lenders.

The rantings of the Vested Interests about lack of housing are being rightly ignored.


The debate has moved on from the housing market as, frankly, that one has been won by the bears. The debate now needs to be on the depth and length of the recession we are in. It is this, rather than the spot price of oil, which will determine the fate of the airline sector.

Even at todays oil price of double a year ago the fuel cost on a typical Ryanair flight to the South of France is only £30 per ticket. With oil at half the current price or double it then ticket cost need only move by a couple of tenners. Oil is therefore a sideshow.

The recession - the lack of people travelling at ANY price - compared to previous years is the REAL crisis facing the airlines.

I defy anyone contemplating a week in New York City to be put off by the £180 fuel surcharge when they'll spend that on the first night meal and a show. But a week in NYC on the razz when you're worried about your job, partners job, bonus or mortgage is easily deferred.

Same with low cost short breaks to Europe. I defy most people to not spend 10 times the airline ticket cost on parking, car hire, accommodation, sight seeing and dining. The flight cost is chicken feed but again, by deferring the whole trip the airlines will be crippled by their high fixed cost of unused capacity.

It was ever thus. An hour spent researching what happened to the airline industry and housing market in the 1990 - 1993 crash/recession is all you need to see the future of 2009/10.

2011/12 looks good though - as long as you are a long term optimist like me.


WWW


"We are in the worst trading environment the industry has ever faced," said Willie Walsh this week...

[nich-av]

2011/12 looks good though - as long as you are a long term optimist like me.



So what is it now?
Is this the worse moment to start training or the best?

Integrated training lasts 2 years, modular 2 to 4 years depending on budget.

We're in the middle of 2008.
2008.5 + 2 = 2010.5

You predict flourishing economies in 2011-2012.

Conclusion: no better time to start?

Why don't you sort out that confusion in your mind and come up with something concrete?

A credit crunch is not going to keep banks from loaning huge amounts to integrated students. Integrated students are integrated students because they can afford to be integrated students.

We can not change the market on this website, we can only inform people of what is happening right now. It's too late to tell people who have or almost have their frozen ATPL that the market is bad. It's too early to tell people considering to start that the market of today is bad, as 2 years further that may no longer be the case.

Instead of pretending to be gods of economy, let's all share the passion for aviation and hope for better times.

[Another TD]

Another intelligent and informed post by WWW.
Ignoring the information that we are receiving on a daily basis from the likes of Willie Walsh and Mol is just ridiculous. BA profit has dropped 87% this first quarter, fuel cost will rise £1bn against last year possible the final fuel bill will reach the £3bn mark this year. Staff are soon to be asked if they would like to take unpaid leave and of course all recruitment has stopped. It’s all due to unprecedented oil prices, economic slowdown and a loss of consumer confidence. This problem is here to last for a few years.
I for one am stopping the flight-training phase of my route to an ATPL, the exam passes are valid for 3 years (just passed) so I have time to view the market and attempt to get reduced training costs when I feel that we are at the trough of the down turn…well that’s the plan. Fingers crossed everybody and tighten those financial seatbelts.

[mustflywillfly]

attempt to get reduced training costs when I feel that we are at the trough of the down turn

I suggested that this may be a possibility a while ago. Unfortunately I got shot down for suggesting it. The majority believe that training costs will go up due to increased fuel prices and operating costs. Still we live in hope.

I will be returning to my job (on a sabbatical at the mo) post CPL and do the IR part time. At least I will be looking for work in 2/3 years time and be debt free. I really dont see the point of rushing modular at the moment and signing up for an integrated would be bonkers.

[HappyFran]

Differcult to disagree with WWW post. Nice to think 2012 with the Olympics and a new govt well bedded in will be a turning point. If all fundermentals remain constsnt then I guess history is a good predictor of the future.

Only disagreement is with rentals, from what I see and read they seem to be a least holding and in many places rising. Possible exception will be spec. new build flats in the likes of Manchester.

Did I detect a scent of weiry boredom in WWW post with the constant negative forecasts, Maybe he, the press and the general populus will become fed up with being negative, and then sentiment will change and we will see some 'green shoots of recovery'.

Of course it could just be the scent of farm poo:}

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

My boredom is constrained to the fact that the falls I predicted were overly optimistic...

WWW

[Another TD]

SFT at Bournemouth offered IR courses for £10000 prior to their demise, how do I know this? They phoned me at home to offer this price just after I had finished the BCPL training with them. Luckily I had decided that flying was not where I wanted to go at that time in my life because soon afterwards they stopped trading.
So ignore the uninformed and wait for some price drops.... but make sure they are not about to bust when you pay up front...it has happened and will again.

[geordiejet]

Bollocks!!!....well at least where I come from.

My sister bought an ex council house on the private market for £98,000

The bloke next door was given the opportunity to buy for £11,000!!!

BUT.....he was, and I quote,.. 'not prepared to give the bu**ers the satisfaction of ripping him off'!!!!!!!

There is another world out there who have not got a clue!!!!!

Yes - but chances are he has lived there for years, and in effect has been paying a "mortgage" on it for a long time.

It must vary from council to council, but certainly South Tyneside council do charge very close to the market value: about 10 years ago, people brought their houses for literally a few thousand Pounds. Also, a lot of empty properties were bought by outside BTLs.

My neighbour used her RTB last year - and it was valued at around £100k. She got around £25k (close to the maximum here) off the value to take in to account the 30 years worth of rent on the place - minus any major repairs paid by the council over the past 5 years.

So a guy getting a house for 11k is unusual - but it is certainly not being subsidised by the "rate payers". It's probably what the house is worth to them. Especilly considering the tennant may be there for 30/40 years, requireing maintenance and whathaveyou. Once he hits retirement, he may be entitled to a small reduction on rent (£4.22 in my Mother's case), meaning you outgoings stay the same, but the revenue reduces - in some cases, down TO £5 a week!!!

All so our lovely geordie slappers, with their 6 "bairns" can live the life of Riley in the best quality homes the Council here can provide them,

[nich-av]

Oil went temporarily below 120$ on Monday's trade.

[nich-av]

Oil is 118$ in today's trade.

Looking good so far...:ok:

[RVR800]

Oil is now at 118.26 thats 20 percent lower than the high of $147

GOOD NEWS FOR THOSE THAT SAID IT WOULD CARRY ON RISING

[MIKECR]

General expectation appears to be prices falling below $100 per barrel by the end of the year. Reports suggest the recent Turkish pipeline shutdown and tropical storm Edoaurd caused little or no change to yesterdays prices which suggests a far cry from the volatile price spikes of last month. Decreasing US and general worldwide demand, coupled with ecenomic slowdown, appears to be pushing prices in the right direction. The situation is still far from healthy but the scaremongering predictions of $200 per barrel by the end of the year appear to have fallen flat.

Ford American now investing money in cheap fuel efficient car design, says it all. Perhaps the US has finally had its wake up call to energy consumption.

[Grass strip basher]

Great BA will no doubt be reversing their recruitment ban within the hour! :ok:

[Speed bird 002]

Everyone needs to wake up and stop dreaming in LA LA land about being in the upturn. We are in a serious downturn at the moment, and there will be no upturn for atleast 1 whole year! :ugh:

In the meantime, save your hard earned money and go MODULAR if you havn't yet started training. I wouldnt advise anyone to go integrated.

Oxford Graduates recommended to :

Ryanair
British Airways
Flybe

British Airways no longer recruiting, Ryanair will be minimising recruitment in the near future and Flybe will probably slow down recruitment in a few months time. The winter looks very very bad for job prospects.

Thats the facts, like it, hate it, ignore it. Your choice, your money and your life. Save your hard earned cash, get a PPL and then review the situation once you have the license.

SB :(

[MIKECR]

Speed Bird,

I would assume the purpose of this thread is to promote positive news, be it interest rates, oil price, price of fish....., flight training prospects....whatever. The similarly worded, arse about face other thread....is presumably to do the opposite. The declining price of oil is presumably good news...be it for many reasons eg. deisel for my car is now 10 pence per litre cheaper than last month. That for me is good news, I drive just over 2000 miles per month. Nobody is in any argument that the aviation industry is teetering on a knife edge just now. Undertaking flying training would most certainly be a foolish move just now. Todays good news however is that the oil price continues to decline and that expert opinion now appears to suggest sub $100 per barrel by year end. Ecomomies will slowly catch up, perhaps 2 - 3 years is a good ballpark.

[Grass strip basher]

Probably be a good time to start training in about 18 months... then have a reasonable chance of popping out into the green shoots of recovery!

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

On the downturn thread many people appeared with bullish and positive views and the debate ensued. On the Upturn thread the same thing is happening. Both Upturn and Downturn threads are discussions about the wider economic envirnoment in which commercial aviation lives. You can be a Bull or a Bear on either thread - that's fine.

I'll stop worrying about oil prices once they've spent 6 months below $70 a barrel - until then they are at record prices outside of the design limits of most business models. One test detonation will be all that is required to soar past the recent high..

The oil price is a marginal issue. The real issue is recession and the number of passenger miles declining AT ANY ticket price. This is the real issue. The marginal cost implications of kerosene in wing tanks would be no problem if the economy were booming or just doing well. After all, the average easyJet fare is £46. When Gordon Brown invented £10 Airport Duty Tax out of thin air it had the same effect then that a doubling of oil prices would have had. In that year easyJet profits rose, load factor increased and they added 15 additional aircraft.

Its not oil. Its the House Price Crash leading to Recession that is the issue.


WWW

[MIKECR]

I think I would be more worried if the price stayed below $70 per barrel for 6 months. I'd be concerned as to what it would do next!

I think it will be interesting to see who hangs on past the winter. Next year will be very interesting.

oh and oil dropped again today by the looks of it, closing at 117.

[JohnRayner]

A falling oil price is indeed welcome, and will doubtless have knock-on effects in many areas, hopefully the cost of food and merely getting to one's job for a reasonable price.

Dunno if this is going to be enough to encourage the average punter to keep on spending his cash on unnecessaries though. And therein lies the rub.

[nich-av]

Probably be a good time to start training in about 18 months... then have a reasonable chance of popping out into the green shoots of recovery!


18 months from now is February 2010.

You'd be graduating in 2012.
Bad news is that I think that the market will be alot different by then.

Ab-initio's with 200 hours applying for A320 and B737 jobs will be history.
So yes, you can definitely wipe BA off the list forever.

The European ab-initio market is shaping itself to ressemble the American one. The actual surplus of ab-initio's will have no choice but to enroll into smaller bizjet and regional operations as legacy airlines redefine their pilot requirements.

Good news is that huge pilot shortages will result in the corporate and regional market as pilots use these markets as bridges to access legacy airline jobs.



Aviation is doing alot better than expected.
Many people who intended to go on summer car trips have decided to fly instead, because it would turn out cheaper with gas prices where they are.

[v6g]

Oil price - it's August - oil generally drops towards the end of the peak demand season (barring tropical storms).

I'm not going to stop being concerned about the oil price until:
- the oil futures market ends contango and returns to backwardation (Nymex ('http://www.nymex.com/lsco_fut_cso.aspx')) or
- at least 2 or 3 out of the 5 major oil producing regions of the world increase production (BP statistical review of world energy ('http://www.bp.com/liveassets/bp_internet/globalbp/globalbp_uk_english/reports_and_publications/statistical_energy_review_2008/STAGING/local_assets/downloads/spreadsheets/statistical_review_full_report_workbook_2008.xls'))

[MIKECR]

Worldwide production is only operating at 77% capacity. Demand is dropping, so why increase production??

[Re-Heat]

Largely as production is limited by trouble in Nigeria, and nobody wants the heavy crude that Saudi Arabia produces. Increasing light, sweet crude production would help a great deal...and increase our oil dependency...raising demand further.

I'm not going to stop being concerned about the oil price until:
- the oil futures market ends contango and returns to backwardation
Good point!

[nich-av]

Rumours are Ryanair are looking at ordering 400 new aircraft.


Ryanair is in talks with EADS unit Airbus and Boeing Co. to buy up to 400 aircraft to secure mid-term growth following its recent earnings slump, chief executive Michael O'Leary has told Sueddeutsche Zeitung in an interview.
Planes are “about half as expensive as they were a few years ago”, he said, because of the currently weak US dollar.



Ryanair may 'buy up to 400 aircraft' - report - The Irish Times - Wed, Aug 06, 2008 (http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2008/0806/breaking25.htm)

If true, that would create a market of its own.

In my opinion, this may include some longhaul aircraft.
MOL needs to go longhaul if he wants to secure Ryanair's future.

[Adios]

I noticed that the downturn thread has disappeared from page 1. Could this be evidence that the upturn is upon us?





Nah, probably just means WWW is tightening the belt so much that he canceled his Internet service.

[bjkeates]

Todays good news however is that the oil price continues to decline and that expert opinion now appears to suggest sub $100 per barrel by year end.

Would these be the same "experts" who were predicting $200/barrel before the year was out? A few weeks ago nobody thought it had any chance of dropping, and then when it did we saw what effect the Iranian missile test had.

I wouldn't count on it being below $100/barrel by the end of the year. It's hard enough to predict what it's going to be this time next week, never mind 5 months' time.

[rogerg]

Having been through a few upturns and downturns, I would say now is the time to start your course, preferably integrated, and be top of the heap when the upturn comes.
Stand by for WWW to explode!!

[JB007]

I would say now is the time to start your course, preferably integrated

Cor blimey!

100% DO NOT go intergrated...http://www.clicksmilies.com/s1106/sprachlos/speechless-smiley-004.gif

http://www.clicksmilies.com/s1106/sprachlos/speechless-smiley-016.gif

See what this winter holds...that's when airlines traditionally make a loss...some may not be able to sustain the operating costs...things are changing week by week, financially and commercially...

[MarkColeman]

The oil price is a marginal issue. The real issue is recession and the number of passenger miles declining AT ANY ticket price. This is the real issue. The marginal cost implications of kerosene in wing tanks would be no problem if the economy were booming or just doing well. After all, the average easyJet fare is £46. When Gordon Brown invented £10 Airport Duty Tax out of thin air it had the same effect then that a doubling of oil prices would have had. In that year easyJet profits rose, load factor increased and they added 15 additional aircraft.

Its not oil. Its the House Price Crash leading to Recession that is the issue.

Bull****. The real issue has been oil rocketing to $147. That single factor wiped out ryanairs massive profits and caused airlines around the world to go bust. It also caused major US carriers to downsize capacity.

You should be thanking your lucky stars that oil spiked like it has done, because if it hadnt your doom and gloom predictions would be looking pretty stupid at this point. For example Aer Lingus just posted record passenger numbers for July, for the first time in the airlines 72 year history they passed the 1 million monthly passanger mark. The likes of EZ and Ryanair have also reported record numbers. Without the oil crisis airlines would be doing ok. 'The worst conditions in aviation history' has been mainly caused by a massive increase in operating costs, not by reduced passanger numbers.

[Grass strip basher]

Mark it is arguably as a result of a large number of things... credit crunch, oil price etc etc.

The end result is the same.... the number of airlines that don't have a recruitement ban in place is dwindling rapidly. IF we go into the recession that some people have been flagging since the creidt crunch hit 12 months ago I hate to tell you but your "you were right for the wrong reasons" arguement will sound hollow to those wannabees without a job and £50-100k of debt.

You also seem to be ignoring the comments management teams at airlines are making about the outlook (Ryanair just last week were saying how they expect passenger yields to gap down). It is these management teams that make decisions about recruitment..... ignore WWW and other if you please..... but ignore what the airlines are saying at your peril :=

[rogerg]

I was made redundent during the last downturn. Two weeks later I got a call, "do you want your job back, can you start tomorrow?"
You just never know.
In the Telegraph to day one xpert said oil will be $200 a barrel while in the same paper another said it would be $70. Truth is I dont think anybody knows whats going to happen.
Sometimes you just have to be optimistic and take a chance.

[v6g]

I would argue that the whole credit crunch is as a result of rising oil prices. The first suburbs of cities in the US that experienced large drops in home prices were the most sprawly ones furthest from the downtown core. The same trend applies to whole cities. Mortgages defaulted and bad debts rose, thus causing the credit crunch.

[Lurking123]

Anyone who thinks that "high oil price = credit crunch = global downturn" needs to take a lesson in economics. I don't particularly endorse the manner in which the four horsemen of the apocalypse have ridden into this thread, but their description of how things have happened is accurate.

[JB007]

...four horsemen of the apocalypse have ridden into this thread

http://www.clicksmilies.com/s1106/lachen/laughing-smiley-007.gif

Everynow and then on PPRuNe someone comes out with something that really makes me laugh...

[bjkeates]

Sometimes you just have to be optimistic and take a chance.

True, but when that "chance" involves six figures of debt, your parents' house on the line and what many airline CEOs say are the worst market conditions the industry has ever seen, it's a bit harder to be so optimistic.

Everyone is entitled to their opinion; mine is that it'd be foolish to stake so much on an integrated course right now. If integrated is for you, give it a year or so and see how things pan out in the industry.

I would argue that the whole credit crunch is as a result of rising oil prices.

The oil price only really started to rocket seriously 9-10 months ago. The first signs of the impending "credit crunch", with all the stuff about the US sub-prime lending etc. happened quite a while before that. I know little about economics but I would argue that the oil price has been an unfortunate side effect of weak markets and weak currencies. Even if the oil price stabilises between $115-120, as it seems to be doing, the financial markets and the economy are still in bother. So what WWW says about house price crash = recession = far fewer people flying will probably turn out to be true. I hope it doesn't, but it probably will.

[MarkColeman]

Grass strip - believe me im not ignoring the threat of a looming recession, and of course people having less money will = less passengers. Im just pointing out that main factor that has really hurt the airlines SO FAR in this current crisis is oil prices, not the credit crunch/recession.

To the guy who thinks oil caused the credit crisis, that is not the case at all. If anything the credit crisis has contributed to higher oil prices, as the dollar lost value investors stopped buying dollars and bought commodities instead as a hedge. Thus as the euro loses value and the dollar gains, the price of oil has dropped in recent weeks (just one of the reasons its dropped).

[v6g]

What caused the credit crisis? Risky US consumers defaulting on their mortgages.

So what caused them to default on these loans? Well, the mortgages resetting to higher interest rates is one cause. But, the distribution of risky loans is uniform across American cities & neighborhoods. What was not uniformly distributed across neighborhoods was where the foreclosures began and where the steepest declines have taken place. The outer fringes of the exurbs were where the trouble started, then the suburbs - I wonder why? Far steeper declines have also been observed in the more sprawly US cities with little to no transit whereas areas close to central urban cores and cities with extensive transit have registered much lighter declines.

The oil price rise has been a gradual rise over the last several years, not a sudden 9-10 month thing. I'm not saying that the oil price is solely to blame for the current crisis but it's played a greater role than many people seem to believe. Risky mortgagors would have defaulted either way, but a major first trigger and the accelerant was the oil price.

[MIKECR]

Looks like a positive day for BA and Thomas Cook, with a further fall in oil price -

The Press Association: Oil price slide boosts FTSE (http://ukpress.google.com/article/ALeqM5gW-5EbH1DyWgqQdbyCjjU8FyLytQ)

(and no I dont suggest starting flying training before some bull in a china shop tries to bowl me over!). just reporting some positive news....

[Slopey]

It'll be interesting to see if the Georgia conflict has any bearing on the oil price given the proximity of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline.

[Philpaz]

Well, its a friday night and as usual i'm less than sober. I should be saving the beer money towards PA28 time really but who cares atm?
My oppinion (in a less than sober state!);
THE CREDIT CRUNCH: Caused by banks over eager to lend out money they dont have in an attemt to increase proffits that they barely have. Lending to those that are far from credibble (or credittable).
OIL PRICES: Well we all have our vices, Oil is the fuel of the past. They are starting to realise this now, Lets face it, what does the middle east have if you take away the world oil dependancy? Not a lot is the answer! Once the world economy is green, the middle east will have no economy, what they fail to realise is that by raising the price they have speeded up there own demise.
THE AIRLINE RECRUITMENT FREEZE: This will end, and in my oppinion sooner rather than later. People like holidays. In this day in age it will be one of then last things to go. Charters are fine, the big guns will be fine, the loco's will suffer the worst. Big guns live off business, charters live off the family hol, loco's live off the the tripper. The guy with a few spare pound in the bank. The guy that is becoming rare. BUT this will change, there is a place for the loco now as there always will be. Cheap flights are hear to stay and they arent going anywhere.

I could go on forever but i fear i may sober up and my bed is calling, feel free to flame me, it will only add to my amusement in the morning,

Paz

[JohnRayner]

I have to agree with those who think the crunch is due to factors other than oil. Banks have recently been selling increasingly dodgy products to increasingly risky punters. Case in point is Northern Rock. A lot of their problems came from unchecked sales made by individuals with their eye on the bonus they'd make from said sale. Up until a few months ago you could get an instant online approval for a loan!

Now the banks are all sh1tt1ng themselves 'cos they've realised that lots of people can't/ won't make the payments now that they've spent all the money they realised from their refinancing. So no-ones lending, so no-ones spending, and so the fun begins...

I can't claim to make any sense of why the oil prices have rocketed recently, I read somewhere that it might have something to do with the futures market? Whatever the cause, a 1/3 rise in prices at the pumps is just the icing on the cake for the punter in the street whose remortgage cash has just run out, whose house value is dropping, and who is seeing food and utility costs going up at what has recently been a ridiculous rate.

Having said all of that, the week in the sun may well be one of the last things to go, 'cos in the modern idiom stuff like that is viewed as a necessity by many, rather than luxury.

To be fair though, I don't think anyone can accurately predict what the near future holds economically. I like to think (or is that hope?) that the fact that the BoE is run by people who actually know about money, rather than an elected official with their eye on the vote, might help smooth things a bit this time round

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Stop obsessing about the oil price. Its a red herring. The real issue is outlined by Albert Edwards, chief strategist at Société Générale speaking this week:

"We see a deep global recession. Growth prospects in the Eurozone, Japan and the UK have deteriorated. Most now accept that recession has already begun in all three,". Mr Edwards predicted a "collapse" in emerging markets next. "You ain't seen nothing yet," he said.

America sneezes.... this time we get bird flu.

WWW

[nich-av]

Stop obsessing about the oil price. Its a red herring. The real issue is outlined by Albert Edwards, chief strategist at Société Générale speaking this week:

"We see a deep global recession. Growth prospects in the Eurozone, Japan and the UK have deteriorated. Most now accept that recession has already begun in all three,". Mr Edwards predicted a "collapse" in emerging markets next. "You ain't seen nothing yet," he said.

Red herring?
It's what created this slowdown.
Consumers saw prices of anything go up because of high oil prices while the usual result of a credit crunch is a reduction in prices and a deflation.
The problem in the U.S. is that while there was deflation, prices went up creating a huge price crisis.

Forecasting the future is very difficult and many top analysts have been wrong many times in the past.

Your data on Japan is inaccurate.
Japan has recorded a GDP growth of 3.3% in Q1.
Q2 is expexted to reduce to around 2% which is still very far from recession.

All you're trying to do is to reach the "see, I was right" level based on raw prophecies by "top managers". So far you have been proven wrong with traffic and capacity growth at airlines all over Europe.

You said that people were going to stop travelling this summer according to your prognoses WWW.

You have been so wrong:


The Association of European Airlines has released traffic and capacity data for its members in June 2008.
Following a better-than-expected set of results in May, the June figures more clearly reflected the depressed situation of the market. Year-on-year traffic growth slowed to 1.6% which, coupled with a 4.0% increase in capacity, led to a substantial fall in load factor, by 1.9 percentage points to 77.4%.
Decreases were recorded in Domestic operations (-6.7%) and on the North Atlantic (- 0.2%). The normally buoyant European cross-border markets grew by 3.2% and Europe-Far East by just 0.5%. Regions which continued to post strong growth were the South Atlantic – which, at plus 10.3% nevertheless suffered a heavy loss in load factor – and the Middle East, with +6.9%.
Preliminary results for July, based on weekly reports, indicate a growth figure perhaps a percentage point better than in June, driven by a slight recovery in North Atlantic and Far Eastern flows, although both remain substantially depressed. Load factors are expected to show a further decline, although less dramatic than in June.


There's a traffic growth of 1.6% and airlines have been adding 4% capacity compared to the same month last year.

Airlines are adding capacity faster than their traffic is growing, lowering load factors and potentially lowering airline earnings (unfortunately we don't have yield figures and airlines have been charging higher fares, so we can't really judge on that).

What is the real indicator of pilot jobs?
Capacity increases.

For European ab-initio's the capacity increases on European routes are the most representative of new pilot jobs. The capacity growth was 2.8% in June on European routes, which means that supposing that there's 10 000 pilots flying these routes already, in June alone a rough 2.8% or 280 new ab-initio's had been hired to cope with the capacity increases. (Supposing that average seating of aircraft added compared to average seating of aircraft already flying the routes is similar or equal plus equal or similar aircraft utilisation (km flown/month)).

You have predicted capacity reductions, traffic reductions over the summer but you have been proven wrong. Face it, admit it and stop pretending you know everything.
Do that in the cockpit with your submissive first officer about knowledge on F-coms or operating procedures, but you can't do that on the complicated subject that is economic forecasts on an internet forum.

[nich-av]

I'd like to come back to a couple of posts posted on pages 19 and 20 of the downturn thread in April:

By myself:

The people presiding now are stacking as much money as they can buying stocks at bottom prices, etc. using this money.


By member Adios:

Nich-av,

It seems you may be onto something there. Maybe some of us can use the info you have provided to make a killing in the markets. I'd love to buy a NetJets share; I'm sick of waiting in BAA's long security queues. There are probably many other readers who would love to fund their flight training with a few hot tips. Where could I put £100K to quickly turn it into £200K? If I can turn it over a few times in quick succession, I should have enough for a Citation Bravo share in a year or so and the guys in Ferrovial can kiss my rosy red goodbye one last time.


What do we learn from this:

US Airways
LCC: Summary for US AIRWAYS GROUP INC - Yahoo! Finance (http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=LCC#chart5:symbol=lcc;range=6m;indicator=volume;ch arttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=un defined)

Continental
CAL: Summary for CONTL AIRLINES CL B - Yahoo! Finance (http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=CAL#chart2:symbol=cal;range=6m;indicator=volume;ch arttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=un defined)

United
UAUA: Summary for UAL CORP NEW - Yahoo! Finance (http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=UAUA#chart1:symbol=uaua;range=6m;indicator=volume; charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source= undefined)

Jet Blue
JBLU: Summary for JETBLUE AIRWAYS CP - Yahoo! Finance (http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=jblu#chart1:symbol=jblu;range=6m;indicator=volume; charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source= undefined)

Northwest
NWA: Summary for NORTHWEST AIRLINE - Yahoo! Finance (http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=NWA#chart1:symbol=nwa;range=6m;indicator=volume;ch arttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=un defined)


Very strangely, all graphs decline until mid-July, start increasing after that... all at the same time... I wonder why that is... ;)

Oil is at 113$ and will probably be at 90$ by end of the year.

I think that this is it.

[boogie-nicey]

Philpaz, yes sir all boozed up on a Friday night I like it :p

With regards to the oil price I must agree that it's a distraction because whilst you have an income you at least have the option of absorbing higher costs. Whereas once that income stops you cannot absorb anything at any price because you're broke. Unlike recessions from yesteryear this time round we have (what the govrenment and their cheerleaders in the media i.e. BBC refuse to acknolwedge) is a large debt that will will require feeding whether you have a job or not. "Lift may reduce but the weight remains the same", same with income/debt, oh dear.

Nevertheless it's always good to have a helping hand i.e. recent/temporary oil price in any regard to the economy but the overall picture is still one of a burnied out shell. The same shallow idiots who seem to vote in politicians who have no policies but a nice smile and relatbale personality are the same brigade who have gone out and built up this huge mountain of debt and with the silly IVAs the government has happily introduced those people are going to be lining up to shirk their responsibilities which the remaining consumers are going to have to bear. It's a nasty one that 's agreed but no one really knows how deep or bad.

A quick word of caution on the over reliance of a banker's comment they always have a hidden agenda/interest for making certain statements. They are not here to provide public information or short films on how to spend wisely they are only about themselves at this time in the economic cycle and always. This is evident in the plethora of contradicting messages from bankers around the globe that offer different opinions to varying degrees from each other. Therefore don't hedge all your bets on one chap, remember these are the people primarily responsible for this whole mess. It's like asking a murderer how the police investigation is going ....

[RVR800]

Oil prices now at $110 down from $145 a 25% reduction over 4 weeks

[redsnail]

Well, I've been busy. :ok:

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

With the pound down to 1.87 to the dollar those $ barrels of oil will be getting more expensive in £ terms.

Anyway, as I said, oil prices are the sideshow. The main event is the Recession in the US, the one just starting in Japan and the one the EU will be in next year. The marginal cost of kerosene means nothing is people aren't travelling at any any price.


WWW

[sawaya]

WWW not too long ago, you explained that airlines cant operate in high oil prices,now that you can clearly see that oil prices are going south,you have changed goal posts and now recession is the problem .Lets compare notes in a year.....If you are right i will give you my savings to gamble with.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

You think oil at circa $115 a barrel ISN'T high? High oil prices are crippling many airlines. That has not changed. Its doubled and then come back 20%. I wouldn't call a one month movement a heading myself.

My point is that a narrow focus on oil price is a mistake. As a component of a ticket it is usually less than half the cost. It is not price elasticity that will prove the real crisis - its people not paying any price, high or low, because their behaviour has changed due to a recession.

If oil fell tomorrow to $50 a barrel the economy would still be headed for recession as the biggest credit bubble in history unwinds. The recession will lead to less business and leisure travel and this will see the usual patterns of airline failures. Oil is just an added irritant to an underlying serious condition.

Globally its not a bad time to be a Wannabe. In the Western World its about to become a terrible time to be a Wannabe. Especially a Wannabe in high debt.


WWW

[Jazzy78910]

I get confused about all this worry of recession... In Australia, I haven't yet begun my PPL OR CPL OR FI training and I've been offered a job as an instructor as soon as I complete them.

It seems there is not enough instructors in Australia, and for those willing to gain a FI rating, they're virtually not only guaranteed employment, but have a pick of who they'd like to work for.

I guess the problems of lack-of-jobs / unhealthy-economy only arises when pilots aren't willing to take a bottom of the ladder job to get a foot in the door..?

Jazz

[nich-av]

I guess the problems of lack-of-jobs / unhealthy-economy only arises when pilots aren't willing to take a bottom of the ladder job to get a foot in the door..?


Exactly.


The main event is the Recession in the US, the one just starting in Japan and the one the EU will be in next year.


No recession starting in Japan, we just had a very strong quarter.
There's just a tender slowdown due to reduced exports to the US.
The Olympics are good business for the Japanese travel industry, as Japanese will not hesitate to visit their neighbors and see their landmates perform. The media industry and telecoms will also benefit from the olympics.

The EU in a recession next year?
I don't think so. The 21st century EU industries are very diversified due to different countries proposing different services/products and at the same time the EU being very contained within itself. External economic pressures matters to some regards, as many industries like aircraft manufacturers rely alot on exports but in worldwide depression situation, the EU can become a productive island.
Governments and authorities are almost recession-proof as different authorities overlay to form a web of redundancy unlike the U.S. where the government has full control on everything.

I see 2009 as a very good year for many EU countries and seen that 100% of WWW's apocaliptic predictions (oil at 200$ :ugh:, all airlines grounded by year end :ugh:, back to stone age :ugh:, etc...) are failing, I feel pretty confident when stating that here.

[32SQDN]

WWW, if the oil prices are the sideshow, why bring it up yet again in your post?
Do BA purchase their fuel in Dollars?

[hollingworthp]

BBC News: TUI enjoys strong holiday demand (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7560173.stm)

TUI Travel, which owns Thomson and First Choice, says demand for package holidays remains strong despite the strong euro and the economic downturn.

The firm said there was no evidence that consumers were trading down or curtailing their holidays.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

The small reduction in oil prices was raised by RVR800, not me.

Whilst any large company such as BA has sophisticated currency hedges the fact is that for more UK airlines revenue is mostly in Sterling and the price of Oil is set in Dollars. As the Pound slumps the real cost of oil increases for companies who generate most of their revenue in Sterling.

All those clamouring for an interest rate cut to help mortgage holders and businesses need to remember that lower of IR's will put downward pressure on Sterling. As we are net importers of goods and materials this will only accelerate the high rates of inflation experienced. Those in debt will be tortured either on their loan repayments, or their lowering living standard caused by inflation, or by experiencing unemployment. You pays your money and takes your choice. A little of each is probably the Bank of Englands desire. Mr Brown would probably rather just see inflation as he can pass that off as being out of his control and a global event.

Either way, the years of millions of people living a lifestyle way way beyond their means in the UK is now over. Unfortunately, ski holidays, second homes, weekend breaks and exotic holidays were all part of that lifestyle. Which is the problem now about to confront Wannabes.

The name of the Wannabe game in the years to come will be longevity. Those that can hang around keeping their ratings current and actively seeking flying work will eventually make it. Those with high debt levels who need a job quickly will find themselves forced back into their offices or previous careers where their dreams of a flying career slowly die.

Unless of course people start using personal bankruptcy as a tool. Which they might. But then you can forget about any kind of flying training finance for many years to come.

Interesting times ahead, unfortunately.


WWW

[Ewe Turn]

Jazzy78910

The offer of a 'job' is the classic line a school will use to lure keen, but somewhat naive wannabes such as yourself, in.

How can they offer you a job as an instructor when you haven't even started training, let alone got a professional licence? You may well be a complete numpty. Seriously, wake up man! It's a classic BS line !

And I'll reserve comments on your statement about an instructor being a 'bottom of the ladder job.' On second thoughts I wont. Insulting and arrogant spring immediately to mind.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Spain in crisis as Europe crumbles

The economies of Germany, France and Italy all contracted in the first quarter and may now be in full recession, shattering assumptions that Europe would prove able to shrug off the effects of the credit crunch.

The picture is darkening so fast in Spain that Prime Minister Jose Luis Zapatero cancelled holidays and called his cabinet back to Madrid yesterday for the first emergency session of its kind since the Franco dictatorship. The crisis meeting...


Spain in crisis as Europe crumbles - Telegraph (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/08/15/cneuro115.xml)


Imagine if you will that a couple of Spanish airlines go bust this winter. Not a difficult thing to do given their crashing economy, slumping housing market and rocketing unemployment. Do you think those hundreds of experienced, jet rated pilots will:

a) Apply to Iberia and sit at home waiting for the phone to ring, or

b) Send their CV's to every airline in the UK that you were hoping to apply to

The JAA license only came into existence this century and we have yet to see what difference it will make in a widespread recession. Given the average Brits lack of a second language and the nepotism prevalent in many other countries I can only think the difference will be that things will be worse this time.

WWW

[JackN]

A couple of things to be happy about:

- Aviation's experiencing a 'downturn', but it's still expanding! It's just not expanding as rapidly as everyone thought it would.
- There will still be plenty of job opportunities with BizJet companies - people with that much money won't be too bothered by how expensive it is.
- Surely the fact that there are fewer job opportunities is just an incentive to be really good? No bad pilots seems like a good thing to me.

Stop whining, it makes people feel sad ;)

[RVR800]

This is another bit of good news on top of the news that oil prices have dropped back substantially ...

BBC NEWS | Business | TUI enjoys strong holiday demand (http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7560173.stm)

Actually I think I may book a holiday - all these Telegraph - lets bring down the government and blame Mr Brown for everything - articles are getting me down:8

[boogie-nicey]

But it is the government namely Gordon Brown and associates that have hit UK plc in the groin. This is simply short term relief but the bigger, badder picture is one of pain, how much and for how long is another matter.

[Re-Heat]

- There will still be plenty of job opportunities with BizJet companies - people with that much money won't be too bothered by how expensive it is.

Yes...well...Merrill Lynch disagree - Merrill Said to Rein in Private Jet Use Business Jet Charter News (http://bizjet.wordpress.com/2008/07/23/merrill-said-to-rein-in-private-jet-use/)

SAS grounded another 7 aircraft today as well

[RVR800]

And coming on top of the good news that oil has fallen by greater that 25%
NOW AT ONLY $111.99 a barrel and that holiday bookings are booming we have another bit of good news

BBC NEWS | Business | Lenders cut more mortgage rates (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7562975.stm)

Oh and exporters will relish the weaker pound which in turn will be good for jobs

The dollar is resurgent and Gold is down;
The dollar is dead ............. long live the dollar

:ok:

[nich-av]

Imagine if you will that a couple of Spanish airlines go bust this winter. Not a difficult thing to do given their crashing economy, slumping housing market and rocketing unemployment. Do you think those hundreds of experienced, jet rated pilots will:


You are trying to associate the edgy situation at Vueling, Clickair and Spanair to the recession? They have been in a bad shape since long before the recession and so has been Iberia.
Vueling's share trading was suspended last year and now they have merged with Clickair to form a stronger partnership.

Your arguments of the recession destroying these airlines does not hold, they were destroying themselves long before the recession started.

Similarily, the argument that Italy is entering a recession is disturbing as Italy has been flirting with recession for the past 6 years and has gotten into one several times during that period.



The economies of Germany, France and Italy all contracted in the first quarter and may now be in full recession, shattering assumptions that Europe would prove able to shrug off the effects of the credit crunch.




That's a lie right there.

France's economic growth accelerated more than economists forecast in the first quarter as stronger exports more than offset weaker consumer spending. Gross domestic product in the euro region's second-largest economy expanded 0.6 percent from the previous quarter, when it grew 0.3 percent, national statistics office Insee said today in Paris. On a year on year basis the economy grew by 2.2% when compared with the first quarter of 2007.

france+GDP+2.jpg (image) (http://bp1.blogger.com/_ngczZkrw340/SC0sprMkB7I/AAAAAAAAFoM/fCbxwovoA-U/s1600-h/france+GDP+2.jpg)

German economic growth accelerated to the fastest pace in 12 years in the first quarter as companies stepped up spending on machinery and construction. Gross domestic product rose 1.5 percent from the fourth quarter, when it increased 0.3 percent, the Federal Statistics Office in Wiesbaden said today. That's the highest quarterly growth rate since the second quarter of 1996.


german+GDP+2.jpg (image) (http://bp0.blogger.com/_ngczZkrw340/SCvzx7MkBvI/AAAAAAAAFms/wYtG9cpXOQg/s1600-h/german+GDP+2.jpg)


FRANKFURT, Germany, July 11 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Frankfurt Airport (FRA) recorded noticeable growth in the first half of 2008. From January through June some 26,265,335 passengers used the FRA global air
transportation hub - 2.2 percent more than in the same period last year.
Airfreight throughput at Germany's largest airport reached 1,047,681 metric tons in the first six months of 2008 - representing a 3.8 percent rise.
The number of aircraft movements at FRA in the same period remained
nearly unchanged at 241,646 takeoffs and landings. In contrast, accumulatedmaximum takeoff weights (MTOWs) continued to climb strongly by 2 percent to 14,056,442 metric tons. In view of FRA's capacity constraints, this development again reflected the trend - seen for many months - toward an increasing use of bigger aircraft on the available slots.
With 4,807,710 passengers served in June 2008 (-0.5 percent), activity
reached nearly the high previous year's level. At the same time, FRA recorded its busiest-ever June for airfreight: 177,520 metric tons handled in the reporting month represented a rise of 0.9 percent on the previous June record in 2007. In keeping with expectations, airmail declined by 4.1 percent to7,178 metric tons.
The number of aircraft movements at FRA remained steady in June: 41,994 takeoffs and landings represented a slight 0.2 percent year-on-year drop.
Nonetheless, accumulated MTOWs continued to climb in June to the new historic high of 2,442,379 metric tons, exceeding the previous record-June in 2007 by 1.1 percent.
The Fraport Group's six majority-owned airports registered a total of
36,624,192 passengers in the first two quarters of 2008 - 3.7 percent more than in the comparable period last year.
Antalya and Lima airports achieved the highest growth rates: Peru's Lima Airport (LIM) welcomed 3,970,741 passengers (up 14.6 percent) from January to June. Fraport's terminals at Antalya Airport (AYT) served 3,637,242 passengers, 9.5 percent more than in the same period in 2007. The summer travel surge also boosted traffic at the Group's airports in Bulgaria: Burgas Airport (BOJ) rose 0.6 percent to 485,533 passengers, while Varna (VAR) reported 444,070 passengers (up 2.7 percent) in the first half year. Only Frankfurt-Hahn Airport (HHN) registered a 5.8 percent drop to 1,823,852 passengers compared to the first half of 2007.
Cargo throughput at the Group's airports climbed 6.1 percent to 1,250,146 metric tons of airfreight and airmail in the first six months of 2008. In addition, aircraft movements at Frankfurt, Frankfurt-Hahn, Lima, Antalya, Burgas and Varna airports increased by 3 percent to 348,915 takeoffs and landings.
Print-quality photos of Frankfurt Airport and Fraport AG are available
free for downloading via the Internet at Fraport AG - Homepage (http://www.fraport.com) (Menu: select Press Center > then Photo Service). For TV news and information broadcasting purposes only, we also offer free footage material for downloading via fraport.cms-gomex.com (http://fraport.cms-gomex.com/). ANR 25/2008 - July 11, 2008


Some people are full of crap, and that pisses me off big time.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

This morning I am enjoying the monthly Barnard Marcus property auction:


Barnard Marcus Auctions - Current Auction Guide Prices to current London and Nationwide auction lots (http://www.barnardmarcusauctions.co.uk/Current_Auction.html)


For anyone still in denial about the breathtaking depth and speed of the housing crash it would be a real eye opener. In previous post war recessions there has been a close positive correlation between the house price crash that preceded it and the size, shape and depth of the recession that inevitably follows.

Already in the last hour the following evidence has gone under the hammer:


Lot 15

(SOLD previously on 20/12/2006 for £250,000)

Flat Mallard Court, Flat 19, John Dyde Close, Bishop's Stortford, Hertfordshire, CM23 3BD

http://www.eigroup.co.uk/onlineauctions/lo...68&l=509505

Lot 15: Sold £131,000

(A loss of -£119,000 in 20 months, -£5,950 a month, -47.6% decline)


http://www.eigroup.co.uk/ImageLib/LotPhotos/brn/20080819/High/15.jpg




Lot 37A is coming up in a minute:

Apartment 8, Block A, Pollard Street, Manchester, M4

Sold in 2004 for £208,250 and today, having been repossessed by that bespectacled singing idiot from the Halifax they are ASKING £85,000 for it... (59.2% off) What will they be bid I wonder?

There are literally hundreds of similar examples from up and down the country at this and other auctions over the past few months.


Its over. The Mortgage Equity Withdrawn lifestyles, the second holiday homes, the property is my pension, the Buy To Let millionaire dream, the rising equity clearing the credit card rescue. All gone.

Billions and billions of pounds worth of money is being DESTROYED. Spending will HAVE to reduce. The economy WILL shrink. In a major recession several airlines ALWAYS go bust.

Join the dots and work things out for yourselves. The media will put a positive spin on things all the way to the bottom.


WWW

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

UK Estate agents with homes, houses & property for sale on rightmove.co.uk (http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-22601513.rsp?pa_n=3&tr_t=buy)


http://media.rightmove.co.uk/25k/24437/24437_JP085190808_IMG_00_0000.jpg


(Previously Sold on 31 Jul 2006 for £194,995) 109 Hansby Drive, Speke, Liverpool,Merseyside L24 9LW Semi-Detached (New build) 3 bed, garden, driveway and garage:


Just went under the hammer for........... £91,500, -53%


Do you see why banks are running out of money? That £103,495 that just went up in smoke before your eyes was loaned by them to someone who is now very probably protected by the bankruptcy courts.

Now multiply this by a thousand. Then double it. The double it again. And then you're not even close to what is going up in smoke every month at property auction.

We are about one third of the way into this.

Protect yourselves.

WWW

[RVR800]

Approaching $100 a barrel

House prices are still rising in many areas although some areas they have taken a bit of a knock Speke - good time to buy:E

Camden

Average Cost: £721,750
Detached: £2,846,382
Semi-detached: £2,127,246
Terraced: £1,240,781
Flat: £530,235

Change in last quarter: 13.1%
Change in last year: 34.1%

[clear prop!!!]

This morning I am enjoying the monthly Barnard Marcus property auction:

Oh what a lovely way to spend a day off!!

.....Reveling in other people misery!!:*

[DUXBY]

Yes www seems to have a lot of time on his hands.

[nich-av]

It's so funny.

Good luck on airliners, mr. WWW.

[helimutt]

No, WWW has been telling it like he's been seeing it all along. Now he is right, those who doubted must be feeling just a little foolish.

I agreed with him from the start but for some reason, many have stuck their stupid heads in the sand and pretended we were all immune. The housing crash hasn't even got going as far as i'm concerned. It's not just a crash, it's also a correction. Over inflated prices driven by easy money from the banks, lending like there was no tomorrow and estate agents getting greedy and keen to over value property. ???


There's a storm a comin' and it ain't here yet.

THERE IS NO UPTURN, NO MATTER WHAT THE OIL PRICE DOES RIGHT NOW.

[JB007]

Helicopter pilots, typical!http://www.clicksmilies.com/s1106/aetsch/cheeky-smiley-022.gif

From the funny Dave Gunson:Never understood why they don't just screw themselves into the ground!

http://www.clicksmilies.com/s1106/alles_moegliche/mixed-smiley-002.gif

(I'm afraid i'm a bad example of when you're on leave and meet some mates in the pub at lunchtime and have too much London Pride then think posting on PPRuNe is a good idea!

Here to be cheerful!http://www.clicksmilies.com/s1106/huepfen/jumping-smiley-027.gif

[nich-av]

You only tell us half of the story.

This is what the OECD really said:


In its economic forecast which was presented last week the Organistion for Economic Co-operation and Development (http://www.oecd.org/) (OECD) forecast a continuation of the worldwide economic upswing, even though this will be slightly less intensive than so far. Despite considerable risks posed by the slowdown on real estate markets, turbulences on the financial markets and high raw material prices, growth would only temporarily slow down in several member states and then regain momentum.


OECD forecast 2.1% economic growth for 2008 - Made in Germany (http://www.just4business.eu/2007/12/oecd-forecast-21-economic-growth-for-2008/)

Pilot training is a long-term investment.

You're a B777 captain on a flight from LHR to BKK. METAR (actual weather) in Bangkok tells you that there's Thunderstorms but the TAF (forecast) says that it'll clear up hours before you get there. Will you, as the captain, cancel the flight??

The intermediary report you mentionned is only a METAR, but the TAF predicted that condition accurately and predicts that it will not last forever.

The worst has probably past, oil is now about steady at below 110$ and reached a 4 months low below 106$/barrel.
Gold reached a 10 months low.
The dollar itself is in a bubble right now because of the falling oil prices. Investors are watching closely as oil futures go down and traditional markets recover. As they trade their commodity futures for shares, the dollar hikes up temporarily. The dollar will start decreasing again by end of the year as the market stabilises from these extreme movements and the clouds clear out.
Probably euro to dollar will be traded at 1.47 after that and rise slowly, back to a stable 2007 level.

The pound is expected to fall further against the euro due to fears of a recession in the UK. The Euro is a very stable and strong currency. The pound is not. Being too nationalistic was not such a good idea after all.
Don't worry, British friends.
You guys usually won't have too much trouble finding work in Northren Europe and the Middle-East.

[Tony Hirst]

I CANNOT believe that the same people are still saying things are going to be ok. Seriously, are you moronic?!Charming :) Just because you cannot see other patterns doesn't mean others are moronic. Seriously, I am one of those people but am now sitting on the fence a tad more. I cannot see the what the fundemental basis of this upcomming recession is (oil and banks don't cut it for me). But I am now seeing is the power of the natty phrase "credit crunch" in full effect. Anything that implicates Gordon Brown also works for me too.

I have to admit, that I am in a bit of a smug win win position having now left Europe so can view things a little more disspationately. The housing crisis has me confused too, I just sold my house for 7% less than it was alegedly worth in April but 8% more than it was worth last year. It took 4 months to sell and exchange contracts. The 50% losses reported above are a suprise and don't reflect my recent experience or those of other people (with an exception) who have also sold in my old street. Are reposesions a good comparator, how do repo sales compare to this time last year (I don't know much about those things)?
Near enough every airline worldwide has halted recruitment and is grounding aircraft left right and centre.Hmm, not so sure about that one. One airline here alegedly has aircraft ground due to lack of crew. There is plenty of movement, expansion and recruitment in Asia at the moment, mainly for contact pilots though. However, there is one new srartup that is sensibly holding off until the oil prices returns to Earth. Overall, if anything, Asia could do with the US and Europe taking a breather, some of the economies are likely to overheat and could do with slowing down a bit. Inflation is an issue here at the moment.

[JohnRayner]

Eloquently put. And spot on for the money. Repeatedly saying it isn't so in the face of all the mounting evidence really only worked back in school, and even then not for too long.

Hatches battened, stormsails set. (sorry, wrong website..)

[Re-Heat]

I cannot see the what the fundemental basis of this upcoming recession is
Simply put: the banks fund the real economy with loans. Loans have dried up, or become markedly more expensive. Quite a large number of companies face upcoming refinancing issues due to expiry of previous bonds / loans (similar to a huge upcoming number of US homeowners on adjustable rate mortgages, who are facing huge rate rises at the end of this year and into the next).

Companies will not be able to refinance, and be able to afford spending as they have to date. Unemployment will rise temporarily, until banking is on a more substatial footing.

With any luck, the poorer companies will fail, their capital and labour recycled into better companies, and banks start to trust each other once again. The longer that process is drawn out by meddling governments who do not understand economics, the longer and deeper the downturn will be.

Outside the UK, Europe and the US, Asian economies are a mess - inflation is massive (30% in Vietnam), and dependent upon a few products or resources in many cases that are hughly volatile in price.

Falling oil prices should worry us as much as the rise has as well, as this indicates that start of the real cutback in spending over the next 2 years.

Economics 101 over.

[Alex Whittingham]

And yet economics is never simple.

The UK swap rates are coming down.

http://www.swap-rates.com/UKSwap_extended.html (UK swap rates)

..and why should falling oil prices worry us when rising oil prices were meant to worry us so much last month?

There's a huge risk in regarding news reports as 'evidence'. It's nearly all just opinion, as is so much of this thread. Economics 101? pah!

[Wellington Bomber]

Are we not forgetting also that even though the price of oil has dropped by 20% from the recent highs of July. That also sterling has dropped against the dollar by about 15%

So there is still not much difference saved?

[Alex Whittingham]

Indeed, but airlines hedge against the dollar as well as against fuel rises. And hedging, at the end of the day is just a bet which costs money to make. Some, like Ryanair, say the bet wasn't worth it. Right? Wrong? Only time will tell.

[ChrisLKKB]

Regardless of swap rates or oil prices, it is universally agreed by the government, the BoE and economists that we are in or headed for recession what ever way you choose to paint it.
The number of mortgage defaulters is up, the number of repossesions is up and the CAB recently said the number of calls they are receiving about mortgage arrears is up by 35%. Also, the number of migrant workers is down.
With fewer people leaving and entering the country airlines will have to reduce flights or air fairs which will mean a bit of belt tighteing required and one of the things that suffers during these periods is recruitment.
All of this is unlikely to change until there is a significant up turn in the economy.

[DUXBY]

Yes I agree entirely with www, reheat and co there are now too many indicators that there is a down turn. It's the people who have gratuated recently that you have too feel sorry for they have no chance, I am least in a position where I can delay my training for a while, but I fear that we are only at the beginning. Yes anyone would have to go into this with their eyes open and any sensible person would, but I still can't help but think that there is a bit of smugness by some of the posts here especially who have been in the industry for some time.

However there will be lot more casualties if 20% of British airlines fail which is what was predicted the other night, but again maybe just media hype, it seems that the credit crunch is the latest fad in the media industry and I can't help but think that we have being talked into a recession.

[Alex Whittingham]

Yes, Chris, I'd agree with all of that, and with Duxby. I'm just cautioning against armchair economics. Even the professionals get it wrong with alarming frequency, try a google search for $200 or $250 oil and spot the 'expert predictions'. Go a bit further back and look at all the newspaper articles on how clever it was to buy to let.

Good background reading is 'The Black Swan'. Wiki (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory)

Whilst I'm not saying they're wrong, 35% up from what? That makes a difference but it doesn't make a headline. Everyone has an angle, particularly governments, journalists putting together a story and CEOs making announcements. A case in point is the series of 'crisis announcements' post 9/11. Most of them turned out to be cheap excuses to get rid of old aircraft and lay off staff without too many questions being asked by shareholders. Look at 9/11 now on the graph of passenger growth over the last 10 years and you can hardly see the blip.

Ask yourself, if you hadn't seen the news for six months whether your opinions - based entirely on your own experience - would be as strong.

You are actually correct, the time not to start an integrated course was 12 to 18 months ago, but you couldn't tell people that at the time even if you knew it - they were so sure they were right.

[DUXBY]

Maybe another factor is that maybe people have just got plain bored with some of the pointless destinations offered by the low cost airlines. They have been there done that lost the bags have had their flights cancelled at the last minute and treated like meat. The only places in Europe worth going to twice are Paris, Vienna, Barcelona, Rome,Venice and Prague and a few others. The rest are forgettable.

[DUXBY]

"cheap excuses to get rid of old aircraft and lay off staff "

I agree with this but every industry is at it, there's nothing like a recession to get rid of staff and avoid bad publicity.

[Alex Whittingham]

But Easyjet and Ryanair passenger figures in July 08 are 20% up on the previous year. Load factors are up too. Look at the figures:

Low Cost Carriers Passenger Growth (http://www.anna.aero/2008/08/22/norwegian-tops-euro-lcc-growth-table-in-july-easyjet-beats-ryanair-on-load-factor-for-sixth-straight-month/)

Could it be that airlines have paused in their recruiting because no-one will get sacked for getting that wrong - you can always re-start - but they could get sacked for carrying on regardless and ending up over-recruiting?

[rons22]

number of passengers is up, hmm, i think its all the immigrants flying back home due to the worst economy in 60 year and 2009 is gonno be the worst.

[ChrisLKKB]

I'm just cautioning against armchair economics. Even the professionals get it wrong with alarming frequency

I've no doubt but there are a lot of professionals in agreement at the moment. When it comes to gambling with 40K+ it's not wise to bet against the house.

Whilst I'm not saying they're wrong, 35% up from what? That makes a difference but it doesn't make a headline. Everyone has an angle, particularly governments, journalists putting together a story and CEOs making announcements. I agree although in this case the story wasn't specifically about mortgage arrears it was about the CAB struggling to cope with the number of calls they are receiving so 35% isn't an insignificant number.

Ask yourself, if you hadn't seen the news for six months whether your opinions - based entirely on your own experience - would be as strong. I'm with a couple of other posters here who were saying that this situation could be seen coming some years ago now due to the government manipulating the economy for their own good and not the good of the country, I'm just surprised it didn't come sooner. I just hope this government will work it's way out of this current situation and not talk it's way out making things worse in the long run.....what am I talking about, they're just going to screw it up as usual! :ugh:

You are actually correct, the time not to start an integrated course was 12 to 18 months ago, but you couldn't tell people that at the time even if you knew it - they were so sure they were right. Imho it's still too early, i'm aiming to sit the exams in12 months (ish)....it'll be a snip after passing the national exams first time round.:ugh: (I might see you for a brush up if you still do them).

But Easyjet and Ryanair passenger figures in July 08 are 20% up on the previous year. Load factors are up too. Look at the figures: I don't think the airlines have seen the worst of it by a long way, foreign holidays are quite high on peoples priorities (apparently, according to surveys ) so they will be one of the last luxuries to go.That's just me speculating though.

Rumours are that Easy Jet are already tightening their belts http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/341810-closure-easyjets-london-stn-base.html (you might be able to read the thread before it gets spirited away).

[32SQDN]

Daily Mail 3rd September:

Profits at British Airways, Ryanair and easyJet will make a dramatic recovery if the price of oil falls to $100 a barrel. The news provided some much needed respite for beleaguered carriers, and shares enjoyed a rare rally.

BA climbed 11½p to 273¼p and easyJet gained 36¾p to 379¼p, while Irish rival Ryanair flew 5 cents higher to €2.64 in Dublin.
But the retreat in the crippling costs of aviation fuel comes too late for failed long-haul firm Zoom and business carriers MaxJet, Silverjet and EOS, which have also gone bust. Crawley-based XL Airways is in rescue talks with its banks.
Gert Zonneveld at Panmure Gordon estimates that BA could make net profits of £330m next year if the oil price comes down to $100 - this is five times the current forecast of just £64m, which is based on an oil price of $120.
Using the same pricing projections, the analyst believes no-frills carrier Ryanair would see profits multiply by seven times next year to £110m from the present estimate of £15.4m.
Meanwhile, easyJet's earnings could more than double to £125m from £49m.
Dublin and Stansted-based Ryanair has taken the biggest punt on oil by going into this financial year with virtually no insurance policy against the rising cost of fuel, known as a hedge. BA has about 75% of its fuel needshedges this year, with 35% next year.
'It (oil price) is a huge deal for the airlines,' Zonneveld said. 'I wouldn't be surprised to see them taking advantage of the cheaper price by taking out more fuel hedging.'
Fuel costs are now the biggest expense for most airlines. BA's fuel bill is set to top £3bn this year, up from £2bn last year, and the flag carrier last month said it is spending £8m a day just to keep its planes flying.
The impact of record fuel costs on airline profits hit home when BA and Ryanair, two of Europe's most profitable players, recently predicted they could slip into the red this year if oil, which hit a peak of $147.27 in July, remained at such lofty heights.
But with the price of 'black gold' touching a session low of $105.46 yesterday, before rising to hover around $109 last night, analysts and investors forecast a less turbulent outlook for battered airline stocks.
Virgin Atlantic supremo Sir Richard Branson declared his interest in clubbing together with rival airlines to buy Gatwick Airport for £2bn from troubled operator BAA.
The Spanish- owned group looks certain to be forced to sell Gatwick, Stansted and Glasgow airports by the competition authorities.

[Re-Heat]

Ah yes, Alex, but I am not an armchair economist.

Regarding interbank rates - http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aBctS84L7E_4

[clear prop!!!]

.....and read from your armchair no doubt! :O

[conerted_lurker]

Significant concerns now about Futura going bust over on Rumours and News is ominous. Bigger than the likes of BMIBaby I bet all their pilots have JAA licenses and speak English. Relocating from Majorca would be a bit of a downer but pilots go where the jobs are. I bet their FO's have got better looking CV's then me :(

I think this talk of armchair economists is people attacking the poster and not the posting.

You can't argue with the numbers when it comes to mortgage equity withdrawal money supply or with house price declines. There has never been a house price crash that has not resulted in a UK recession since the 1950's. There has never been a house price crash as big as this one so ergo there will be a massive recession.

I don't think its complicated enough to need an economist to understand that.

From what people on here say about the last recession it hits airlines harder than most other businesses and we should therefore expect to see some go bust. And, wowee!, look at that airlines going bust left right and center.

[DUXBY]

Gordon Brown promised an end to the boom and bust ecomony but we have seen that it doesn't matter who is in power we always experience these cycles until us Brits stop acting like sheep and start adopting a more European attitude to property ownership and attitude to dept. If you haven't got a decent deposit or can't buy something out right you can't afford it. The trouble is there are far too many people with maggots between their ears for the banks to take advantage of, the banks never lose out.

[DB777]

JugglingSpence - good luck with your pursuit.

I started a couple of months ago (and need eye surgery before I can go too far) but I share your outlook for the future. If everything goes to plan it will take me 3/4 years too at which there might be more jobs!

[conerted_lurker]

I think you'll find that it was the government who held down the interest rates and kept the rules slack on the lending rules that fueled the house price bubble.

Why?

The feelgood factor delivered 3 consecutive Labour election victories.

Do you REALLY think politicians get into politics in order to help people and deliver the country to prosperity?


There is a global business cycle and all politicians know this. There are two strategies. In the first you reign in public finances during the expansionary phase so that you are in good shape for the deflationary phase (now) and can increase public spending on infrastructure to help support the economy.

In the second you let public finances rip during the expansionary phase so that the economy enjoys amazingly strong growth but accept that when tax receipts fall in a deflationary phase (now) you will have to cut public spending which further weakens the struggling economy.


Can you see which strategy Mr James Gordon Brown chose?


Do you think that was wise?


:} Prepare to pay the price for 3 socialist governments; winter of discontent and a depression. :}

[biaeghh]

Lurker, are you not old enough to remember Mrs Thatcher and her governing of the boom and bust of the late eighties and early nineties, i would suggest to you that governments of all colours seem inept when things go bad.

[conerted_lurker]

Yeah I remember that. You might have thought that the Labour party, having made much criticism at the time, might have learned the lessons for when it was their turn, no?

Plus the 1989 recession and White Wednesday (ERM fallout) set the scene for a glorious economic recovery for a country transformed from the strike ridden mess it was in the 1980's. I can forgive the ERM fiasco and recession in exchange for the employment law changes and transformation from metal bashing to a service economy which was painful but right. Labour have transformed nothing nor laid the foundations for anything but they have still given us a Boom and Bust bigger by a factor than anything seen before.


Just announced on BBC News TV.

New car registrations down 18.6% this Aug compared with last Aug.

Worst figures since 1966!



Do you think that all those people and businesses that REALLY HAVE decided to reign in spending on cars might just do the same for air travel? Or is that armchair economizing just too simplistic and naive of me? Surely it is SO SO SO simple to see the mother of all recessions coming?

[Re-Heat]

and transformation from metal bashing to a service economy which was painful but right
If I could pick one hole in what you say - the UK remains the fourth-largest industrial exporter in the world. While the unions lost jobs galore, the UK actually became a great deal more efficient and retained a good position as an industrial economy.

However, the media has not noticed, the the unions disagree with everyone on principle anyway!

[boogie-nicey]

Conerted Lurker my friend I agree with what you say however the assertion that during the economic downturn they'll cut services is not how the Labour mob see it. Size of government grows regardless of the outside weather only the tax receipts fall/rise. I wish we had a government that would utter the tabboo phrase of "public spending cuts" especially during this downturn. However it's not so much the government or any single politicial party that worries me as the public whom are the classic example of sheep along with convientently short memories. If things improve sooner rather than later then Labour will be parading around telling everyone how it was them that 'saved us'. The significant proportion of the public will believe them in order to swing back to the labour side.

[Alex Whittingham]

Sorry Re-Heat, I should have read your profile. Would you agree with the three basic premises of my post that (1) oversimplifications of the economic situation can be misleading and often lead to incorrect conclusions, (2) anyone can see a trend, predicting the turn is the tricky bit and (3) news stories and corporate and government announcements can also be (deliberately or accidentally) misleading?

[RVR800]

Yes I think Alex is right - the purest science is hindsight as they say

Often the Media / Opposition parties eggagerate - makes good press and political capital

In the city the clever money buys at the trough - talk it down then
buy at the minimum - easy money

A lot of people will delay some will proceed and be then ahead in the queue later on

Its very much a gamble and you have to make your own judgement - not easy

[Vin Diesel]

I know the analysts are saying that the recovery in the oil price will have x effect on the bottom line and the shares are rising y% due to that news.

But I'm with WWW on this one, the big issue facing the industry is the volume of people who are choosing not to travel, not the oil price.

I'm on the other side of the Irish Sea and with the "Celtic Tiger" times have been good for the Irish economy and many many Irish people took advantage of the weak dollar and headed to New York for 3 to 4 days to do their Christmas shopping.

I have no doubt now though that with the downturn in the Irish economy the loads on these pre Christmas flights will be very much lower out of Dublin now as the same shoppers who went transatlantic for Christmas shopping in the past just can't quite justify the same this year and choose not to travel.

How could you when those Irish bank shares you bought are now down 60% in the year, you're house has fallen in value by 10%, mortgage interest rates are up, your petrol for your car is up, your company is going to miss profit targets so your bonus will be well down on last year, or maybe you won't get a bonus, or worse still you work in construction and you've been laid off.

The airlines will face maybe twice the dollar cost for fuel this year for the same transatlantic flight as last year but how much of that total cost of running an airline is the fuel bill? Which would have more effect on the bottom line, losing 50% of your passengers in a year, or doubling your fuel bill?

What happens when as we're seeing at the moment, you have a combination of both to a greater or lesser extent.

Whilst oil prices are falling back somewhat now they are still over $100 a barrel. And the major issue facing the industry, namely the fact that confidence is down and fewer pax are travelling, hasn't gone away either.

Scary times ahead for the industry over the medium term. Cut your cloth accordingly.

[Alex Whittingham]

Yes, but you're projecting, and all the evidence is in exactly the opposite direction of your projection. People are not 'choosing not to travel', in fact loads on Ryanair and Easyjet are 20% up on last year, a huge rise in passenger numbers. Where do you get 'fewer pax are travelling' from?