Growing Evidence That The Upturn Is Upon Us [Archive] - Page 10

quant

25th Apr 2009, 06:04

Boeing lost more aircraft orders than it gained during the first three months of this year as struggling airlines cut spending.
The American aerospace group said that it had booked orders for 28 new aircraft but lost 32. Profits in the first quarter of this year halved to $610 million (£420 million).
Since the end of last month Boeing's order book has moved back into the positive after Gulf Air confirmed an order for an extra eight 787 Dreamliners, worth about $2 billion at list prices.
Airbus, the European aircraft manufacturer, sold 22 aircraft in the first quarter but lost orders for 14.

Boeing and Airbus lose orders as airlines cut back - Times Online (http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/transport/article6150574.ece)

Comment: Taste of fear
There is no magic formula for getting through this crisis except the tedious but essential attention to detail at every level. As one chief executive observes: "Managing in a downturn is a completely different skill." The to-do list in the past year or so, for virtually all types of carrier, has run down cost cuts, pay freezes, job cuts and capacity reduction. Apart from the first line of the list, this is not natural territory for low-cost carrier managers.

Comment: Taste of fear (http://www.flightglobal.com/articles/2009/04/21/325428/comment-taste-of-fear.html)

Interesting stuff :hmm:

Grass strip basher

27th Apr 2009, 07:14

Early days but if this Swine Flu outbreak gathers pace it could be another nasty knock to the aviation industry..... :eek:

SARS was a bloomin nightmare for Asia!

quant

28th Apr 2009, 09:09

Holiday operators Thomson and First Choice have cancelled their flights to Mexico due to the outbreak of the swine flu virus that has claimed 152 lives.

The companies, both owned by TUI Travel, said they has cancelled planned flights to Cancun from Manchester and Gatwick airports.

BBC NEWS | Business | Thomson cancels Mexico holidays (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8022170.stm)

v6g

28th Apr 2009, 14:57

This was on the front of the economist this week - I felt it beautifully summarised the flight training industry right now.....
http://media.economist.com/images/20090425/1709LD2.jpg

Wee Weasley Welshman

28th Apr 2009, 21:36

A picture paints a thousand words..

Selection stages have been reduced. Fees increased. These people are desperate for Wannabes to keep on signing up to the dream. The dream is now a nightmare. No jobs, just being pimped to various airlines for trial periods. Barely paid then discarded for the next batch.

This time it will be much much worse than the terrible times for pilots in the 5 years of the early 1990's house price crash (note during those 5 years house prices rose in one third of all months - leading every time to claims of green shoots and recovery..)

No recovery until after the Olympics I'm afraid. Keeping your ATPL and IR(M) current until all that time is what needs to occupy the wannabe mind. For those wishing to escape the currency cost its simple, don't get current for a few years and therefore don't start the clock ticking.

WWW

Grass strip basher

29th Apr 2009, 04:22

Whilst my doctor friends tell me this Swine Flu outbreak is a little over blown it seems it still has the ability to kick the airline industry in the "soft and dangly" bits..... arguably could not be happening at a worse time... there will be more airline failures/layoffs..... :uhoh:

Swine flu: Companies impose travel ban on staff - Telegraph (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/health/swine-flu/5238353/Swine-flu-Companies-impose-travel-ban-on-staff.html)

Alex Whittingham

29th Apr 2009, 08:02

Oh god, he's back.

Sorry, I meant...

Oh good, he's back.

Grass strip basher

29th Apr 2009, 08:12

What's wrong Alex things not working out for wanabees as rosey as the picture you had been painting??

Please please share with us all the good news for wanabees that you have been gathering in recent weeks about rising traffic numbers and a "growing pilot shortage" etc etc......

How about the latest IATA stats for March for starters.... Load Factors Drop as Passenger Demand Falls - Freight Stabilises (http://www.iata.org/pressroom/pr/2009-04-28-01.htm)

:uhoh::eek:

BetpumpS

29th Apr 2009, 08:27

Excellent picture.

I love the the little light "Beacon of Hope" attracting little fishes only to find themselves in the path of being eaten up whole!

I take it the beacon of hope is the FTO right!

Alex Whittingham

29th Apr 2009, 08:36

Hey GSB, what's wrong? Had a bad week?

Grass strip basher

29th Apr 2009, 09:04

Been a bad 1-2 years !! :}

Wee Weasley Welshman

29th Apr 2009, 10:09

All airlines ?unprofitable? in first quarter | Personal Investor | Citywire (http://www.citywire.co.uk/personal/-/news/markets-companies-and-funds/content.aspx?ID=338789)

All airlines ‘unprofitable’ in first quarter
By Nicholas Paler | 09:06:12 | 28 April 2009
UK airlines saw shares drop in early trading after a warning from Citigroup that all the carriers in Europe would be loss-making in the first quarter of 2009.

In a note which further punished the sector following yesterday's swine flu outbreak, Citi said it expected to see record losses across the board when airlines revealed their first three months of trading, because of a sharp fall in business travel and air cargo, a passenger decline and the timing of the Easter holiday.

Citi – which added there may be a possible recovery in 2010 – also said most airlines would likely make a loss in 2009 as a whole, with easyJet and Ryanair among just four profitable businesses.

Citi said: 'We expect a collective operating loss of €1.8 billion in 1Q09. Underlying revenue decline expected to be 10%, driven by 20-25% revenue falls in B2B, an 8% overall passenger decline and later timing of Easter.
'All airlines are expected to have been unprofitable.'

It also warned of more cost cutting and capacity reductions to come, adding that of the three UK listed airlines, British Airways may need to raise financing via an equity raising by 2010.

Citi added legacy fuel hedges – where airlines have agreed a deal to buy oil at a certain price which is higher than current levels – were another burden on the sector.

While leaving its rating unchanged on BA and Ryanair, Citi also cut easyJet to a ‘hold’ from a ‘buy’.

Yes Alex, I'm back, and this time with treble the bandwidth!

;-)

WWW

BetpumpS

29th Apr 2009, 12:56

Welcome back,

how did the house moving go? Perhaps things aren't as bad as you say :ok:

WELCO

29th Apr 2009, 14:52

Jobs are still available out there. It will only need some good networking to get one despite these ugly circumstances!

Wee Weasley Welshman

29th Apr 2009, 16:57

It is apparent to many that things are as bad as I was predicting 18 months ago. Not so many people realise that things are going to get worse still and in fact the really painful phase is still ahead rather than behind us. The next 18 months when the unemployment balloons from 2 to 3 million is the part which is most painful and most destructive. Even sound companies will be taken down.

Remember than in every recent recession several airlines, both large and small, have gone bust. This recession will be no different. The very early failures of XL and a few transatlantic business airlines were not IT. IT is still to happen.

The difference this time is that the industry may very well decide that it will continue to hire Wannabes. But they will not be paid, will be for a fixed term contract and may well have to pay their own type ratings. The costs of this model on top of £80k basic training fees would seem to be prohibitive but its amazing how deeply into debt Wannabes seem able and prepared to go.

Only a fool would train now.

WWW

disco87

29th Apr 2009, 17:10

When should someone start an integrated course then? In a year?

TheBeak

29th Apr 2009, 17:19

Who knows really? But it has to be at least a year. If I could turn back the clocks I would look to come out Nov/Dec 2012......maybe later. And I wouldn't do it integrated. I would very possibly not have done it at all. I would however have the PPL/IR for pleasure. But that's me. There is only one way this industry is going. I would strongly recommend not busting your balls to find a way to train integrated right now, even if it is a 'sponsorship'.

TheBeak

29th Apr 2009, 18:11

Financial and Aeronaughtical.

Tell me that was a joke or a slip.

In order to make a decision you need to take on board all advice and opinions, all knowledge and facts. PPRUNE is a tool to aide that. So ask away.

TheBeak

29th Apr 2009, 18:22

Fair enough and no, given the standard of some individuals training they probably wouldn't.

It isn't meant to be positive or negative, just realistic, and, as I am sure you and anyone else who isn't delusional or who doesn't have a reason to give you false confidence will know, now is a REALLY negative time in all (I am sure not ALL) industry, especially aviation.

disco87

29th Apr 2009, 18:24

Thats what I was doing, trying to get some information, no such thing as a stupid question apparently. Whatever route I take it would not be for at least another year anyway, I might also not do the integrated way it is however the way that appeals to me the most currently. I came into some money a while ago, which is either a good thing or a bad thing depending on which way you look at it so any loan that I would take out for training would not be huge. Which is another reason that integrated, and also the nature of it appeals to me. Asking questions and peoples opinions on here is part of my research

Also don't get the joke.

TheBeak

29th Apr 2009, 18:27

Don't look a gift horse in the mouth, just because you have it doesn't mean you have to blow it. You don't get a better product by going integrated. Approved Modular at somewhere like FTE is just as good and cheaper.

disco87

29th Apr 2009, 18:37

Of course I understand that, like I said i'm and in no way committed to integrated but it does seem an appealing way to do it. The intensive and full time nature of it would suit the way that I like to work.

I suppose the reason I asked is because I read a lot of don't train now, if you have to do it go modular and take it nice and slow. There isn't much advice for people who are thinking about an integrated course as to some ballpark ideas about when they may be a viable option once more. I was intresting in hearing views about that, it may be the case that it is just to difficult to say but if you don't ask......

MartinCh

29th Apr 2009, 18:42

next time it'll be aero-naughty-antics. Sun/Mirror readers' and editors' own style of 'fun' for headings. Perverting English - that's what I call it.

Now I know why aviation is so alluring to all the teenagers and in many cases blocks any traces of critical thinking left.

I was forced to postpone my plans to finish up my rotary training until further notice (who knows when..) due to recent changes in economy and only postponing my planned airplane training meant to start this autumn only because of my Uni studies.

But then, I have deep sympathy for all the wannabe jet jockeys and recent 200h+ grads now and over next few years. I would not waste my hard-earned money on CPL/MEIR, UK CAA fees for ATPL theory and other fairly pointless stuff right now. (= in other words, the idea of being sensible modular student)

Yeah, do train. Do save for your PPL, see if you like it. Have fun on weekends/time off, take your friends up, helping you with rental fees.
If you really want to fly for living, you research your career. Nothing stops you from flying for fun until then. So you postpone ATPL theory with CPL/IR module until better times.
Makes sense? It should.

ukdy:
Well, separating wheat from chaff MAY include reading first post of a very long thread. You're not around PPRuNe long enough or haven't read most of this thread to find out that the OP (original poster) was having a laugh about similar thread and this is just unofficial 'Part 2' of it. It's probably meant to catch an eye of starry-eyed wannabe as well.

Wee Weasley Welshman

29th Apr 2009, 20:33

Its really this simple.

In the boom times train at the fast, expensive, place and get yourself quick into a hungry for pilots airlines.

In the bust times train at the slow, cheap, place and get yourself as-and-when into anything that flies which isn't a school and might lead onto an airline.

We are in a bust.

Soon there will 15,000hr Boeing training captains applying for your job flying rubber dog poos out of Doncaster.

Really.

WWW

ps AND you would be a fool to start commercial training now. A fool.

biaeghh

29th Apr 2009, 21:11

Happy days WWW is back still probably licking his wounds from the severe thrashing the welsh got in the six nations by us, and to think I use to love the fonz!!!

apruneuk

29th Apr 2009, 22:04

The W.H.O has today raised the threat level of a Swine Flu pandemic to 5 (out of 6). Knowing how the World's press like to hype things up, even without a serious outbreak it probably won't be long before people start to rethink their travel plans. If there is a pandemic declared then the governments of the World will be rethinking the travel plans of all of us.

Not really a great time to be investing £50-£100k in a CPL.

Re-Heat

30th Apr 2009, 03:21

Swine flu is a sideshow - this is the real issue at hand (FT):

"US economy shrinks 6.1 per cent

The US economy continued to contract in the first quarter of this year as business investment collapsed in the face of eroding global demand.

Preliminary commerce department figures showed on Wednesday that US gross domestic product declined by 6.1 per cent in the first quarter, after declining by 6.3 per cent during the fourth quarter of last year. The decline was worse than the 4.7 per cent that economists expected and marks a slight improvement from the fourth quarter contraction, which was the sharpest since 1982."

I notice that my predictions of a few months' ago (recession until Q1 2010 at least) seem to be playing out exactly as I thought...

Re-Heat

30th Apr 2009, 03:26

Not all toxic assets will have to be written off. They don't neccesarily represent defaulted mortgages, they may be long term mortgage backed securities or CDOs of currently low or uncertain value. They affect balance sheets in the short term, and the banks want to get rid of them, but their value may increase as liquidity improves and property prices rise.
Alex, sorry, but your contention here is totally misguided. As someone who works with distressed assets, I can tell you that liquidity only returns to the market with massive declines in value at this stage of the cycle. Unfortunately banks tend to be one of the fools on the side of the equation that loses money in this market, and will tend to always sell off at the bottom of the cycle.

Classic distressed assets are illiquid until the market bottom is reached. You are right - many will return to reasonably value, but the profile of the valuation certainly plays out for worse first.

biaeghh

30th Apr 2009, 07:28

Has anybody heard the new cd from the kings of leon, worth a listen in between plagues!!!!

Alex Whittingham

30th Apr 2009, 08:16

Not all toxic assets will have to be written off. They don't neccesarily represent defaulted mortgages, they may be long term mortgage backed securities or CDOs of currently low or uncertain value. They affect balance sheets in the short term, and the banks want to get rid of them, but their value may increase as liquidity improves and property prices rise.

Commenting on this post, you said

very true on the 23rd of April (http://www.pprune.org/4880085-post2349.html)

and

totally misguided on the 30th of April (http://www.pprune.org/4895579-post2380.html).

Shome consistency please, or are there two RE-HEATs?

If you're saying that the value only increases as liquidity improves, I think I said that.

Re-Heat

30th Apr 2009, 11:19

True to your comment that the losses in some won't arise, and untrue to the comment of liquidity = rising prices first.

Yes, apologies - it was a confusing response, but you quote out of context - I first said "Very true, Alex, but of course you have to find the bottom of the market first - that only occurs when you have liquidity, and we have not yet reached that point. You don't generally see price rises in illiquid markets that are in distress.".

Didn't help that I forgot that I had already responded though, I admit.

quant

1st May 2009, 05:36

Embraer is cautiously optimistic that it has seen the worst of the global economic crisis and that its commercial aviation business will start improving in a few months.
The Brazilian airframer is seeing "faint signals of some activity", said Embraer president and chief executive Fred Curado during a conference call to discuss the firm's first quarter net loss of $23.4 million.
The commercial landscape is "definitely more encouraging than the last time we spoke", he adds.

Embraer sees "faint signals" of new commercial activity (http://www.flightglobal.com/articles/2009/04/30/325915/embraer-sees-faint-signals-of-new-commercial-activity.html)

:ok:

potkettleblack

1st May 2009, 08:01

And yet yesterday Cessna shelved production of its new mid size aircraft.

Cessna loss is competitors? gain (http://www.flightglobal.com/articles/2009/04/30/325878/cessna-loss-is-competitors-gain.html)

quant

1st May 2009, 12:44

http://****.photobucket.com/albums/tt88/quant_2009/insolv.jpg

The number of people being declared bankrupt in England and Wales has hit a new record, according to the government's Insolvency Service.
In the first three months of the year there were a record 19,062 bankruptcies and 10,713 individual voluntary arrangements (IVAs).
Corporate insolvency
There were 1,783 corporate insolvencies such as receiverships and administrations in the first three months of the year, 27% fewer than in the last quarter of 2008
BBC NEWS | Business | Bankruptcies reach record levels (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8028386.stm)

quant

5th May 2009, 07:00

Airport operator BAA saw passenger numbers at its London airports fall 10% in the first three months of 2009, as it was hit by the recession.
Both Gatwick and Stansted, both commonly used for discretionary holiday travel, had 14.6% fewer passengers than during the same period in 2008.
Heathrow was more "resilient", BAA said, with numbers down 7.6%.
Pre-tax losses widened to £316.2m from a loss of £55.6m in the same period last year. Revenues rose 15.5%.

BBC NEWS | Business | BAA passenger numbers tumble 10% (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8033164.stm)

:hmm:

Alex Whittingham

5th May 2009, 09:49

quant

5th May 2009, 16:06

WASHINGTON – Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told Congress Tuesday that the economy should pull out of a recession and start growing again later this year.
But in testimony to Congress' Joint Economic Committee, Bernanke warned that even after a recovery gets under way, economic activity is likely to be subpar. That means businesses will stay cautious about hiring, driving up the nation's unemployment rate and causing "further sizable job losses" in the coming months, he said.
The recession, which started in December 2007, already has snatched a net total of 5.1 million jobs. The unemployment rate "could remain high for a time, even after economic growth resumes," Bernanke said.
But while some economists believe unemployment could hit 10 percent by the end of this year, the Fed doesn't share that view. The unemployment rate will probably climb "somewhere" in the 9 percent range, Bernanke said.
"The loss of jobs is one of the most distressing aspects of this whole episode," he said.
Even with all the cautionary notes, the Fed chief offered a far less dour assessment of the economy.
"We continue to expect economic activity to bottom out, then to turn up later this year," he told lawmakers. "We expect that the recovery will only gradually gain momentum."
Recent data suggest the recession may be loosening its grip on the country, Bernanke said.

Bernanke: Economy should grow again later in 2009 (http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090505/ap_on_bi_ge/us_bernanke)

Some positive news from the great satan (aka USA) :p

quant

6th May 2009, 05:31

Didn't you post that article about BAA on the 15th, quant?

http://www.pprune.org/4862645-post2329.html

Sorry, edited to say I've just realised that your earlier post was about the March 09 results and this one is about January, February and March 09.

Found this linked from the BBC News site BAA first quarter profits 28% up in the first quarter of 09 (http://www.teletext.co.uk/finance/city-news/8fe6caff561570192eed33c0d8113955/BAA+profits+despite+slump.aspx). I haven't looked at the numbers, could one of our analysts explain how the profits can be 28% up according to one site and still be a £316 million pound loss according to the BBC? Sounds very odd. Did they capitalise T5? Here is a second corroborating story Alex:
BAA flyers tumble as debt costs quadruple - Times Online (http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/transport/article6224585.ece)

The full cost of BAA's debt was revealed today as the Spanish-owned UK airports operator said its interest payments had soared to £327 million in the first quarter.
The operator of Heathrow, Gatwick and Stansted also revealed that passenger numbers fell by 10 per cent in the three months to March 31. BAA blamed the recession, the worst weather since 1991, the late Easter and the leap year for the slump which saw the number of flyers from Heathrow tumbling by 6.4 per cent while 14.6 per cent less passengers travelled from both Gatwick and Stansted in the first quarter.
However, total retail income per passenger rose by 8.8 per cent to £4.71 and overall revenues for the group rose by 15.5 per cent to £522 million due to higher aeronautical charges at the three London airports.
BAA said the big jump in debt interest payments was due to a £140 million loss on financial instruments, principally index-linked swaps. A further £63 million was added to the payments because of changes in the accounting treatment of Heathrow's Terminal 5.

The increased debt payments contributed to a larger first-quarter, pre-tax loss of £316 million, compared with a £55 million loss in the same period last year. BAA is now paying an average of 6.33 per cent interest on its debt, which was £168 million higher in the first three months of this year at £9.5 billion.
BAA: Financial results :ok:
(http://www.baa.com/portal/page/BAA+Airports%5EInvestor+centre%5EResults+and+performance%5EF inancial+results/4dafe5ca9ceee110VgnVCM10000036821c0a____/448c6a4c7f1b0010VgnVCM200000357e120a____/:ok:)

JohnRayner

6th May 2009, 07:34

BBC NEWS | Business | Easyjet losses more than double (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8035223.stm)

Cheers all,

JR

quant

6th May 2009, 07:52

I think easy will survive this mess as in the article it does say the company will turn a profit and that passenger numbers increased.

But boss Andy Harrison said at current fuel prices and exchange rates Easyjet would make a profit over the year.

It added that passenger numbers increased 2.9% to 19.4 million.

BBC NEWS | Business | Easyjet losses more than double (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8035223.stm)

However one looking to get into the piloting fraternity should be cautious.

:ok:

TheBeak

6th May 2009, 08:28

could one of our analysts explain how the profits can be 28% up according to one site and still be a £316 million pound loss according to the BBC? Sounds very odd.

I doubt it's the answer but if they made a larger loss the previous year then it is possible Alex.

Very basically:

Profit= Revenue - Costs, It should be but doesn't have to be positive. A loss is a form of negative 'profit'.

Profit can be negative - if it is, then we call it a loss.

From Profit and Loss (http://www.bized.co.uk/educators/level2/finance/activity/breakeven21.htm)

I am not saying it is why but I am saying it is HOW.

That coupled with the fact the BBC are a bunch of Marxist spin doctors that talk nothing but crap might account for the difference.I hope that helps you Alex.

Alex Whittingham

6th May 2009, 08:53

Got it. It wasn't profit in the true sense that was up 28%, it was EBITDA.
BAA News release (http://www.baa.com/assets/Internet/BAA%20Airports/Downloads/Static%20files/BAA-Q1-2009results.pdf) Thanks for your input.

Re-Heat

6th May 2009, 09:42

EBITDA is a bit of a con - unfortunately, companies can choose their headline metric these days, which is more than a little misleading.

It is of absolutely no relevance to a public company to know what their earnings are before all the financing costs, aircraft depreciation, and taxation (if they had any!).

clear prop!!!

6th May 2009, 21:40

Now let me get this right…

Our esteemed moderator has told us on numerous occasions that the price of oil was ‘a side show’

Yet, his esteemed airline has just posted a loss, increased by their own figures, 80% of which they directly attribute to the increased price of oil when at it’s peak.

Given those figures they are in fact, year on year 10% ahead of the game from last year with, increased load factors!!

“the price of oil is a sideshow”…..my arse!!!’’ :ugh:try telling that to Zoom etc!

Also, I’m just back from Sharm (holiday).

Given the gloom and doom, we fully expected to claim rows of 3 seats each and have a sleep….WRONG… not a spare seat on the plane, and, apparently that is the norm these days.

5hrs without a movie and, for someone 6’2”,… that is the budget flight from Hell BTW!!!

Now, I know it’s not great out there, in fact we have all taken an 8% pay cut across the board here, but,.. life goes on, but don’t….don’t start an integrated course right now. We have vacancies, but won’t look at anyone with under 1000hrs

JB007

7th May 2009, 07:03

Yep - every flight i've done this year is full! Expect Egypt and Turkey to be full - non Euro destinations!

A quiet cull is still ongoing, spoke to a mate earlier this week, his company is making 55% of its pilots redundant!!!! (UK based Corporate Operator)

quant

7th May 2009, 21:24

Budget airline Easyjet has asked council officials for permission for its pilots to marry couples on flights.
The Luton-based airline said it hopes to combine marriage proceedings with taking newlyweds on honeymoon.
It has asked Luton Borough Council for its pilots to be licensed to carry out marriage ceremonies.
Easyjet's Paul Simmons said: "If our request is replied positively, then so-called 'floating on cloud nine' would get a new meaning for people in love."
A Luton Borough Council spokesman said: "We have only just received a letter from Easyjet and will be responding in due course.
"While there are clearly laws governing marriage ceremonies, we are not yet aware of the full details of what Easyjet are proposing to do."

BBC NEWS | England | Beds/Bucks/Herts | Easyjet wants passenger weddings (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/beds/bucks/herts/8037908.stm)

I suppose it's another way to make money :p

Wee Weasley Welshman

8th May 2009, 09:54

Oil was a sideshow when weighed against what I was predicting - the greatest Post War recession which, at the time, was being denied by the PM and the Chancellor. They have now conceded that the worst financial crisis and recession in a century is happening. Compared to that oil was and is a sideshow.

Oil is currently struggling to hold its head above 50 dollars. The worlds oil tanks are literally full and there are currently tankers anchored off the South coast brim full of the stuff and acting as storage tanks. We're full. No more oil please - we don't have the space. Everywhere else is the same and OPEC is desperately cutting production.

Oil is a sideshow.

Its only a third of airlines costs and every airline shares the same cost so there is no competitive advantage. When easyJets average fare is £44 and oil represents a third of it the car park charges matter far more than the price of a barrel of oil.

Oil won't make easyJet go bust. Lack of cashflow for its massive fixed costs might. Cashflow = ticket sales. Recession = people not buying tickets.

Oil is a sideshow.

WWW

ps - you may now kiss the bride. ;)

Wee Weasley Welshman

8th May 2009, 10:05

Oh, I meant to ask you Clear Prop - how are those Scottish house prices holding up? Still no crash?

Scots House Prices Fall 9 In 3 Months (from Evening Times) (http://www.eveningtimes.co.uk/news/display.var.2506223.0.scots_house_prices_fall_9_in_3_months. php)

SCOTS house prices have fallen again as figures today revealed property sales have more than halved in a year.

Prices have slumped by almost 9% over the past three months.

The average price was £140,318 between January and March - down 8.7% on the previous quarter.

And the number of property sales has dropped by 57% in a year - and by 38% over the last quarter of 2008.

The new figures were released by...

What is 8.7% a quarter when annualised I wonder..

WWW :hmm:

Alex Whittingham

8th May 2009, 10:40

Recession = people not buying tickets

Not true, it seems

Easyjet passenger numbers (http://www.easyjet.com/en/news/apr_09_passenger_statistics.html) 6.3% up on April last year, load factor 4.2% up.

Acknowledging that Easter fell in April this year and Easy were expecting March figures to be down and April's up for that reason, note that the acquisition of GB has now worked its way through the stats and no increase can be attributed to that.

TheBeak

8th May 2009, 10:50

I like your style WWW.:D

Alex Whittingham

8th May 2009, 11:58

Oil rises as rally gathers pace

Oil prices have risen 65% from February's lows. The price of oil has risen to just under $58 a barrel, a rise of more than 8% on the week, as optimism about the state of the world economy has grown.

Global markets have also risen, continuing a two-month climb, with UK shares up 4.5%, Japanese shares up 5% and US shares up 2.4% on the week.

From the BBC (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8039672.stm).

quant

8th May 2009, 13:19

I'm not to sure what to make of that news Alex :confused: on the one hand i want the world economy to get better :) hence higher oil prices but i definetly don't want it to hit the $150+ barrel mark thus making my driving/training and energy bills more expensive.

mmm :8

Wee Weasley Welshman

8th May 2009, 22:00

Quote:

Recession = people not buying tickets

Not true, it seems

You said I was wrong when I said house prices were going to crash. You said I was wrong when I said there was going to be a severe recession. You say I am wrong when I say people are not going to buy airline tickets this summer... we'll just wait and see I guess.

It may not be easyJet that suffers the most. I concede that.

WWW

Alex Whittingham

8th May 2009, 22:14

Ah, the sage of Llareggub (thank you Dylan Thomas) Did I say that? I think you'll find I said that your opinion wasn't a fact, it might have been right or wrong but it was just your opinion. I also criticized your selective use of cut and paste presented as fact and the reliance on gnomic utterances of financial 'experts'.

We've been waiting for your predicted rush away from air travel for nearly a year now and there is no evidence at all that it is true when applied to the UK low cost Market - and the post was about Easyjet, was it not?

quant

9th May 2009, 07:11

British Airways said that its first and business-class traffic had fallen by 17.7 per cent last month as the airline’s more lucrative customers cut back on travelling amid the recession. It said that total traffic for April had risen by 0.9 per cent as market conditions continued to be “very challenging”.
In contrast, economy-class traffic rose 5.2 per cent, boosted by Easter falling in April this year, but total load factor, a measure of how full aircraft are, dropped 2.6 per cent to 78.1 per cent. Cargo traffic was down 14.8 per cent.
BA flew nearly 2.8 million passengers in the month, up 1.3 per cent on the 2.7 million it carried in the same period last year. The increase was largely down to more passengers in Britain and Europe, where it carried almost 1.7 million passengers, up 1.4 per cent. The airline also flew more people in the Americas and Africa and the Middle East. There was another sharp fall in Asia, with numbers falling 9.1 per cent in the month to 142,000.
The airline said that its shares had fallen amid concerns about swine flu but had recovered in recent days as fears ease and hopes build that it could be closer to a merger deal with Iberia, the Spanish carrier.

Turbulence forces British Airways to fly lighter at front of the cabin - Times Online (http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/transport/article6237019.ece)

:sad:

Golf Sierra Sierra

9th May 2009, 07:30

As a regular SLF traveller, I have actually seen a change in the last 6 months to 9 months. Load factors have INCREASED.

My experiences are a mix of short and long haul, primarily with BA, easyJet and Ryanair. BA and easyJet flights have been between 95% to 100% full - mostly 100% full. The worst load factor I have encountered was on a Ryanair flight which was approx 70% full. Having travelled for the last 20 years and I can not recall a period where I have seen such a step up in load factors - it certainly was not this full a year or so back.

I checked the schedules and routes etc to see if flights have been chopped and thus load factors increased as there are less flights to a specified destination - but I don't see it. There appear to be, if anything, more destinations, especially in the low cost route networks.

Airports appear just as busy as always - I don't see any decline, especially having waited so many hours of my life in queues !!

I don't see a down-turn from a passenger perspective - my SLF experience is the inverse.

GSS

wobble2plank

9th May 2009, 08:25

GSS,

The passenger numbers have been good, of that there is little doubt. The problem is with the yield from the sold seats.

Any muppet can fill an aircraft with passengers, it's the ability to make a profit out of the aircraft that is difficult. Whilst the flights have been full you don't know what passengers have paid for their seats and thus the profit margin available to the airline operator.

Add together the ridiculous costs associated with BAA airports, the daylight robbery of the Airport Passenger Duty tax (£60 for the 'privilege' of leaving the UK?) and the pressure on the profitable part of the ticket is an ever increasing spiral.

Don't let passenger numbers cloud the fact that the airline industry is still in severe economic decline. The absence of premium traffic is hurting the bigger carriers as they desperately try to restructure to take advantage of the 'bulk' economy travellers over the next year or two. Both VA and BA are operating aircraft configured towards the high yield business/first passenger with, subsequently, less seats for economy thus reducing the yield.

Time will tell, but it's still going to be painful for a year or two I feel. As VA and BA mull the spectre of compulsory or voluntary redundancy during their restructuring I think the out look for 'wannabees' is not looking very rosy at all.

Wee Weasley Welshman

9th May 2009, 11:09

Well I actually sign off the loadsheets and fly the schedules.

Aircraft are being parked up all day long doing nothing. Loads aren't great. Look at the BRS apron on a Tuesday and you'll see aircraft with cobwebs on them.

Alex you can call me the sage of bugger-all until you are blue in the face mate. Because I offered my opinions, which proved absolutely correct, months and years ahead of others. In the teeth of dissent and ridicule. Those Wannabes that took note have benefitted. That is the bottom line.

I did selectively cut and paste (is there any other way?). The relevant point is that the material has proved correct. The financial 'experts' I quoted were the experts that were correct. My opinion is not fact and no amount of confident assertion by me can change that. Wannabes are not looking for fact. They seek informed opinion. Opinion free from being rooted in the flight training industry. Opinion based on decades of experience in the industry. My opinion was freely offered on a public discussion forum and you're contention about it having been right or wrong is merely failure to concede you were on the wrong side of the debate. There was a house price crash and there was a recession.

If you want to confine the debate to UK low cost airlines and ignore the wider Wannabe market that is fine. Lets start with the prospects of BMIBaby, the profitability of Globespan and the the precarious reliance on mail contracts of Jet2.

Air Europe and Dan Air went bust AFTER the recession.

WWW

PPRuNe Towers

9th May 2009, 12:00

Outside the low cost world - the one where every bit of the profit lies with those who pay extra to turn left on entry to the aircraft - there is a disastrous slump.

Aircraft parked by the score. If you get out of this particular ghetto and cruise the rest of the site and beyond you can see and make your own judgements. At a time when a company like Singapore parks 17 widebodies anyone who quotes load factors is simply parroting egregious airline spin.

Singapore has excellent load factors now for the headline writers don't they?

And it's repeated across the world - often masked as 'retirements' or the more sophisticated trumpeted reductions in average fleet age. What it really means is an average of 11 pilots per parked aircraft on the street. Many of you arrived on this forum when Toulouse and Seattle were jostling to see who'd hit the 300 orders in a year mark.

The stark reality is this: When cancellations are added to the figures Boeing has only sold one aircraft this year and 10,000 workers have already been laid off.

The minnows and weak go early at these times. However, apparently strong airlines often go later. Those with fleets parked for much of the day have great load factors too. You love quoting them to cheer yourselves up. The freighting world isn't decimated in the true sense of the word - it's far worse than that because only one word matters for us actually doing the job and those looking in.

Only yield matters - everything else is smoke and mirrors. You might suggest that the websites and ads from the FTO's are blowing that smoke up your respective butts - I couldn't possibly comment.

Rob

TheBeak

9th May 2009, 12:17

Both nicely put and realistic, factual and very true accounts of the industry......but it will still be put down as doom mongering. You can't help some people.

chrisbl

9th May 2009, 16:25

As regular BC passenger, I have reduced my travel by 50% and now dig out the best bargains even if I sacrifice flexibility.

The fact that BA are charging almost twice as much as Emirates to fly to Australia in BC explains why BA are taking a hammering. Beside which BAs aircraft are dirty sheds with cabin crew who just moan all the time. I can do without that thank you.

PPRuNe Towers

9th May 2009, 18:32

reduced my travel by 50% and now dig out the best bargains even if I sacrifice flexibilityLike I said - yields stuffed which equals parked aircraft. 11 experienced pilots per aircraft not working. No graphs needed, no charts. Your entirely logical thought process repeated tens of thousands of times a day all over the world.

Rob

quant

10th May 2009, 07:53

THE Lufthansa takeover of BMI British Midland has been thrown into doubt by a row with Sir Michael Bishop, the British airline’s founder, over the injection of fresh money into the company.
The German flag carrier has demanded that Bishop, one of the UK’s best-known airline entrepreneurs, take part in a recapitalisation of BMI to avoid the risk of it breaching regulatory rules on capital reserves.
Bishop is understood to have told Lufthansa he will not play ball and that there is no risk of a breach. Both sides are now seeking legal advice on how to resolve the wrangle.

Lufthansa’s BMI bid hit by cash row - Times Online (http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/transport/article6256596.ece)

:8

dartagnan

11th May 2009, 07:30

CAC40 and the DJ is going up since several weeks now.
end of the "depression"?

quant

11th May 2009, 07:53

CAC40 and the DJ is going up since several weeks now.
end of the "depression"?

The level of these indices is not the sole indicator of a depression/recession. The markets can be quite bullish in a downturn. ;)

wobble2plank

11th May 2009, 07:56

CAC40 and the DJ is going up since several weeks now.
end of the "depression"?

Possibly a bit of optimism in the banking sector but don't forget that consumer optimism and their ability to spend lags a looooooong way behind. The difficulty that current airlines are facing is a dramatic loss of forward bookings, especially in the premium cabins and thus a loss of forward, 'projectable' yield. This leads to difficulty in securing short term credit and an increase in the interest rate payable on current loans. A short upswing on the stock market does not alleviate this. Don't forget that 'short term credit' for an airline includes the ability to pay for services such as ground handling, fuel and landing fees on account. Toward the end of Alitalias woes they were having to pay cash up front for all these things. Difficult and embarrassing to do!

So, whilst it may look as if we are actually scraping the bottom of this recession as far as the numbers go, we have a long way to go with a steep climb. Once out we will see a sea of financial mire that is the Governments abysmal financial handling of the past decade with public debt of 100% of GDP which will scare off investors in Britain and make it a long uphill struggle to get the public finances in check. Until they are private business, especially such supposed environmental demons as airlines who are easily taxed and targeted by loud, small, vocal campaigner groups, will continue to be heavily taxed.

Air Europe and Dan Air went bust AFTER the recession.

Sadly I think we will still see a few more after a low yield summer followed by another stark winter. Q4 2010-2011 could well see the start of a pickup however. Wait and see.

TwinAisle

11th May 2009, 08:07

I'm as guilty as anyone of wanting to see the world through rose tinted specs, especially in these troubled times. But from where I sit in airline management, the future looks far from rosy in the short-medium term, and I would suggest to all you "don't worry, it is not as bad as you think" merchants out there that you pay heed to PPrune Towers and WWW....

What we are seeing is the calm (believe it or not) before the storm.

Turn downs like this have the effect of "de chaving" low cost flights. The first stages of this process are already with us - premium cabins getting walloped as customers get more price sensitive, and businesses pull away from travel to cut costs. Then the ripple effect starts. First class punters fly Business. Business fly Premium. Premium fly economy. Economy fly low cost. And many low cost punters don't fly. Not a major issue for the low costs, they feel this effect last. But from the numbers, and from what WWW is reporting (and let's face it, he should know!) the low costs are starting to feel it. Uh oh.

Couple this with the thought that this should be the BEST part of the year - summer is coming up, people are starting (or rather should be starting) to book their holidays - and if they are not, god help us in the Autumn, when things really get hairy.

Will there be more carriers going to the wall? Yes. I have no doubt about it. I have my own thoughts on who, but I will keep those thoughts to myself, since I would hate to read on here about someone predicting the demise of my employer. Will the industry contract further? Yes. We will bounce back, we always do - but IMHO it won't be this year or even next. If you want to train and join the employment queue, carry on, but time it so that you are ready to fly in 2011, and you won't be far wrong.

Also - when you do get a job in 2011, remember that the next upturn will be followed, as sure as night follows day, by another downturn. This is one of the most cyclical industries in the world, so please have something to fall back on. It terrifies me that guys and girls in their low 20s are happy to take on shedloads of debt to train as a pilot, with no way of paying this off if they can't get a job that provides them with a steady income for 10+ years after....

Chin up boys and girls. We will recover. Just not for a while....

TA

quant

11th May 2009, 08:56

British Airways is getting rid of more than 100 pilots with pay-offs of up to £150,000 each because of a huge fall in passenger numbers.
The move will save BA some £20million in salary, National Insurance and pension costs.
Managers wrote to 500 of BA's 3,200 pilots offering voluntary redundancy or unpaid leave.
It is understood 130 put their names forward.
They are being offered a year's salary in severance pay.
Nearly 500 managers took redundancy in December and 300 office and support staff will have left by June 1.
In March, the number of BA business and First Class passengers fell by 13 per cent.
This month it is expected to announce an annual operating loss of £150million.
British Airways axes 100 pilots to save £20m | Mail Online (http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1179942/British-Airways-axes-100-pilots-save-20m.html)

:sad:

Grass strip basher

11th May 2009, 08:59

"It terrifies me that guys and girls in their low 20s are happy to take on shedloads of debt to train as a pilot, with no way of paying this off if they can't get a job that provides them with a steady income for 10+ years after...."

I believe this is the first "proper" downturn since this method of funding pilot training was introduced. In the early nineties I think BA and co still were running fully sponsored schemes. It will be absolute carnage for the likes of BBVA who are currently financing the likes of OAA and FTE cadets.... or should I say it will be carnage for many of the parents who have to step in and pay the monthly interest payments to keep their house!!! The sooner the banks stop providing insane amounts of financing for these courses the better off everyone will be.

I have said it before and will say it again most 18-20 yr olds don't have a clue what a burden 80-100k of debt will have on the next 10-15 years of their lives.... many are no doubt about to learn the hard way.

dartagnan

11th May 2009, 09:17

I have said it before and will say it again most 18-20 yr olds don't have a clue what a burden 80-100k of debt will have on the next 10-15 years of their lives.... many are no doubt about to learn the hard way.

why would they care? do you know personal bankrupt?

quant

11th May 2009, 09:32

why would they care? do you know personal bankrupt?

They will care when their parents lose the family home! :eek:

wobble2plank

11th May 2009, 09:56

They will also care when their desperation for paid work slashes new entry T's & C's and subsequent career climb companies T's & C's to such a point where their income won't even service their debt.

Keeps your eyes open kiddies, it's happening right now.

JB007

11th May 2009, 10:49

...but time it so that you are ready to fly in 2011, and you won't be far wrong.

It think that's a bit optimistic! 2 years from now??!?? No chance - 2013/4 before any serious recruitment, and that will be all experienced guys coming home from the Middle-East and Turbo-prop pilots - for the <200 hour fATPL???...big unknown!!!!

Do not contemplate training now or in the next 18 months at least!

TwinAisle

11th May 2009, 10:58

On reflection, JB007 - I think I will take off what remains of my rose tints, and go along with your assessment....

I know loads of boys and girls down here in the sandpit who would come back in a trice if the UK/Europe was more promising... and they'll get the seats first, as you rightly say...

TA

clanger32

11th May 2009, 11:13

I'm back working in the city, following completion of my training. For me personally, this has been a perfect illustration of both the need for and relief of having, a good backup plan. Alright, I'm very fortunate in that I have 15 years of [relatively] senior business management behind me, so I don't have debt either. As good a place to be as a newbie can hope for at the moment I'd say.

However, whilst a sidenote I'd reiterate to anyone looking to train right now, what I really wanted to say is that my gut feel - based on my experience of the city - is that there is a cautious optimism starting to return. I repeat, this is my opinion and not based on any facts, but generally working in the city, you do develop a reasonable feel for this.

This is a modicum of sunshine in an otherwise gloomy prognosis, but as twinaisle and GSB state, there is a long, long hill to climb back to anything like prosperity. Further, I have experience in general business, but not the aviation world - one thing which is very clear is that there are certain rules and idiosyncrasies that effect aviation, that won't apply in the field of my experience, thereby reducing what one can take from it.

no sponsor

11th May 2009, 11:15

Actually, I don't think they will. The only people being hired at the moment in the UK are:

Easy Jet taking on ab-initio cadets to do summer flying programs via CTC
Ryanair taking on cadets who fund their TR and line training

In the future, Long Haul requirements will of course be met via experienced F/Os, but it ain't happening on SH.

Experience, it seems, counts for very little - which will come as a rude awakening for those summer pilot with 400hrs on type. I wonder how all those XL pilots must feel. If it comes to BA enforcing CR on the bottom of the seniority list, it will be a poor outlook even for them (unless you are 777/747 rated and don't mind going abroad for your contract).

Wee Weasley Welshman

11th May 2009, 13:45

That is a point I've made a couple of times now. Historically Wannabes were at the bottom of the pile of CV's on the Chief Pilots desks and experienced unemployed pilots were at the top. It therefore took a while into the recovery before jobs for low time pilots started to emerge.

However, it may be different this time.

If low time Wannabes are willing to pay for their own type rating, work extended periods 'on trial' on low wages or work seasonally then they may actually be the most desireable CV to hire. They would be flexible about moving to any base in any country as they don't have the kids or family home consideration. Their very high debt commitments keeps them very dependent on their company pay cheque every month.

The 20 yr old with £80k worth of debt willing to work for crumbs might actually finding a 'job' easier than those experienced pilots such as those ex-XL guys still looking for work.

Crazy world,

WWW

shaun ryder

11th May 2009, 13:55

Now if that happens in the future its discrimination. Low houred wannabees hired over experienced crew. I wonder if they would get away with it?

Grass strip basher

11th May 2009, 14:16

Its not descimination if both have the qualifications required for the job. It is just based on an economic decision.

Will sure make for a nice atmosphere on the flight deck. :uhoh:

potkettleblack

11th May 2009, 14:27

Unfortunately its more like evolution rather than discrimination. When I started my PPL back in 2001 it was all about going instructing, then landing a turbo prop job and then making the "huge" leap to an all singing all dancing glass cockpit jet. That was the mantra that every FTO and recruiter spoke. Very very few jumped straight into the RHS of a jet, mainly the top Oxford/Jerez graduates that got picked up by BA.

Now days airlines are run by beancounters for the benefit of the stakeholders and not the training department. Whilst the chief instructor may rue the old days and roll their eyes at the loss of experience unfortunately they are given a set of rules to play with.

The reliability of new airframes and the backup safety systems that are in place today mean that aircraft don't just hit hills or fall out of the sky anymore. Its all a numbers game. With an ATPL and over 1500 hours on type my RHS job is not safe anymore and I would be foolish to think so. Who is to say that a wet leaser doesn't call up my company tomorrow undercutting us just to keep themselves busy. These wet leasers could be full of the 400hr line training brigade trying to buy themselves hours.

flying_shortly

11th May 2009, 17:50

If low time Wannabes are willing to pay for their own type rating, work extended periods 'on trial' on low wages or work seasonally then they may actually be the most desireable CV to hire. They would be flexible about moving to any base in any country as they don't have the kids or family home consideration. Their very high debt commitments keeps them very dependent on their company pay cheque every month.

Sounds to me like you have a gripe with Ryanair and other such airlines. If they are willing to speculate in order to accumulate and it suits the airlines then why not? Why else and how else would you fund yourself through any route of training, be it modular or integrated, if you were not sure that you'd have a job at the end? Ryanair are very clever in that regard. Their system means a lot will be encouraged to train because they know they have a good chance, all be it at an extra cost. But in the long run you get hours, experience and well paid.... Do you mind me asking what your backround and aspirations are in the aviation world?

Xulu

11th May 2009, 18:12

My aspiration is to become the next moderator after WWW joins the ayslum! :ok:

BitMoreRightRudder

11th May 2009, 18:26

But in the long run you get hours, experience and well paid....

No you get shafted.

JB007

11th May 2009, 18:44

flying_shortly

http://www.freesmileys.org/smileys/smiley-forum/wtf.gif (http://www.freesmileys.org)
http://www.freesmileys.org/smileys/smiley-violent072.gif (http://www.freesmileys.org)

Do you mind me asking what your backround and aspirations are in the aviation world?
The aspirations of others who are astounded by what you have written, are that they have the understanding, that you clearly do not have, of a long and PROSPEROUS working life...

You 'Pay-to-Work' Pilots are simply wrong...

Wee Weasley Welshman

11th May 2009, 21:23

Flying_Shortly - as a Captain with a large airline and 10,000-odd hours in my logbook, my only aspiration, is to go part time and do something more interesting with my life. I've also been a Modular and Integrated flying instructor and had this role on here from back when email was a novelty.

What is happening now is pure exploitation based on nothing more than Wannabes continued willingness to self fund their career. Just how they manage to keep paying more and earning less each year is a mystery to me. The money at the end of it doesn't really justify it.

The more people go down the route of paying not only for a jet type rating but then working for peanuts on extended trial the worse things will become. Six months, a year, down the line and suddenly there's a new batch of Wannabes coming out of the system to replace you.

Eventually I suppose market forces will mean that there just aren't enough people willing AND able to fund themselves all the way through CPL/IR, ATPL, Multi, Type Rating, MCC, Line training and six months work experience followed by six months at Burger King followed by another summers work experience! <deep breath>

I just thought that by this stage in the house price crash, credit crunch and recession the market forces would have acted by now. The worlds an incredible place I guess.

Any Wannabe choosing to throw themselves headlong into this tragedy needs their Class One revoking. :(

WWW

Cirrus_Clouds

11th May 2009, 21:32

I am proceeding with ATPL training (Module 1 of theory for the mo) but will do the rest over 5 yrs. It's taken me 10yrs so far to get all the training that I have currently and I don't mind another 5. I have no debts and have managed my finances. I feel sorry for those who have just graduated, with very little chance of work and massive debts. Lets hope they can manage the repayments....:rolleyes:

Patience and time is the key.

flying_shortly

11th May 2009, 23:19

WWW

The wages gained through flying are worth it. The average, even starting with Ryanair, are good by any standard. It beats what you'd get in most other industries for the same effort. How you get there and by what means is the business of the person involved. Don't you think?

I don't understand your concerns. Maybe, you might explain a bit better... Surely, you can't be against young people aspiring to a good job. Do you feel insecure in your position? How do you propose one enters the pilot job market by not paying for their training? With your logic nobody would work at all; risk of job loss, low wage by your reckoning and exploitation of the worker. How are you going to change things other than waffling on these forums?

quant

12th May 2009, 04:46

flying_shortly clearly you have an axe to grind but i suspect you will not find any sympathy with your current position :sad: are you a pilot?

www, JB etc are experienced pilots telling you how it is and it's people like you that are degrading my future terms and conditions (as well as your own! :eek:). No i am not a pilot however i work for an airline and speak to pilots everyday and the message is the same.

If paying for a TR is what you want to do then please go ahead as no one here will stop you :=

I do understand that this is the way the wind is blowing and in one way or another you will pay through either a reduced salary or a bond but as long as the payment is not upfront and you are working off the cost of the TR i am ok with it ;)

Some good news:

Hopes are mounting that the worst of the recession is over for Britain, after influential organisations and investors said that there were clear signs of economic recovery. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development said yesterday there were indications that the country was experiencing a “pause in the economic slowdown”.
The multibillionaire investor George Soros echoed the positive forecast, saying that a meltdown of the world’s financial system had been averted. Jean-Claude Trichet, the President of the European Central Bank, said that some countries had already moved beyond the worst of their recessions.
Activity in the British housing market has also picked up. Estate agents said that there were more inquiries from new buyers last month than at any time in the past ten years, as they were tempted out by the low prices and good weather. The upbeat mood was also evident on the high street, where like-for-like sales jumped by 4.6 per cent in April.
Worst of the recession may be over for Britain, says OECD - Times Online (http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article6269927.ece)

:p

Grass strip basher

12th May 2009, 04:48

Flying shortly if you can't see that spending c£100k on integrated training + a type rating to join the likes of Ryanair is nuts all I can say is good luck to you.

Just ask yourself how you would feel after 2 years working at Ryanair when you have barely dented your massive pile of debt and you are flying very few hours because the company is preferring to use the "cheaper" newbies who are working for peanuts during a "trial period"..... you may have a slightly different perspective then.

Try looking at how much you are paid post cost of servicing debt/paying back training costs.... doesn't look so great then.

quant

12th May 2009, 04:53

flying_shortly please read the following thread:

http://www.pprune.org/interviews-jobs-sponsorship/365449-ryanair-finances-laid-bare.html

:ok:

Mikehotel152

12th May 2009, 08:10

Personally, I sympathise and empathise with Flying_Shortly. This IS the way the wind is blowing!

A lot of people seem to be criticising new pilots without considering the position we find ourselves in. It's all very well to tell us to forget a career in Aviation until 2012 when the Industry picks up but for many of us that's not possible and not sensible until we've tried every avenue to get work. By all means, advise people to delay their training until things improve, but people who are already trained are faced with limited options.

REALITY CHECK FOR NEW PILOTS

1. The FI, Air Taxi, Turbo-prop, Jet route is still possible. You will still have to beg/borrow/earn £50,000 to pay for your training. Fortunately, this route is open to everyone because no-one will assess yor suitability for the ultimate Jet job. During the 5-10 years it will take to get to the Jet you will earn less than a secretary for most of the time. From this will come your living costs and loan repayments. In order to get a Jet job you will need a bit of luck and might still have to fork out for a Type Rating. You will gain favour with many on Pprune who believe this is the honourable route for wannabes wishing to become commercial pilots.

2. The Integrated course direct to Jet route is still possible. You will have to pass psychometric and aptitude tests and then beg/borrow/steal £70,000+ to pay for your training. Obtaining this loan will be difficult and very risky for your future. It seems the majority of graduates from these schemes do not obtain permanent employment, but this is speculation because few would bother coming onto Pprune to carp about it. Those who get jobs will be on reasonable wages; probably commensurate with the wages earned by modern day electricians or brickies. Provided they don't succomb to flexi-crew policies and bite the bullet after 6 months, these lucky pilots will earn decent money in the future.

3. The Modular or Integrated to Ryanair/Easyjet route is now possible, and fashionable. Naturally, as with the other routes, you will have to find the money for your training. That's £50,000 - £70,000. With Ryanair you will have to get through an interview and sim check; with CTC/Easyjet you will have an interview, psychometric and aptitude testing. Sure, this is not easy, but for the 'lucky' few you get a possibility of a job flying a Jet. The cost of your Type Rating will be borne by you. With Ryanair it's by getting a loan; with CTC/Easyjet it's by having low wages. Either way, your job security is low. As with Option 2. above, you risk flexi-crew policies but have reasonable prospects.

4. Join the Armed Forces. You won't pay for your training, except, possibly with your life in some foreign field. But that's very unlikely and you'll get to fly lovely aircraft for 10 years before you get fed up with service life and want a cushy Civvie job. You're then faced with getting your ATPLs and taking the plunge into the commercial job market. Unfortunately, your prospects are not as good as they would have been 20 years ago. Unless you're lucky and get picked up by one of the larger carriers (who aren't currently recruiting at all) you will be vying for a job with a low-cost carrier who may view you as too 'institutionalised' to fit into the company.

5. Now, this is the best option but is akin to winning the lottery. You get LUCKY and a friend or family member who happens to be Chief Pilot somewhere. This could be a Legacy Carrier, in Bizjets, or with any other airline or small/regional operator. In any case, you will have to have paid for all your training at a cost of £50-70,000+ and are unlikely to be charged for your Type Rating. Will you have job security? Probably not. The bean-counters won't care who you know and you risk flexi-crew policies etc. Nevertheless, your future is likely to be lucrative once you get past the first few years of low wages due to your training bond.

So, surely we're looking at choosing an option that best fits our individual circumstances. Each newly qualified pilot has a dream to become a commercial pilot. Many might not want the RHS in a Jet. Many do. And their dream is as valid as the dream once held by all the professional pilots on this forum. The Industry has changed, probably for the worst. That is not my fault; nor is it Flying Shortly's fault. We're just dealing with our reality and giving ourselves the best chance we can. :)

Edited to confirm that these are just my views.

wobble2plank

12th May 2009, 08:17

A word for those 'starting out' from someone who has been flying for the past 23 years. Not a 'wannabe' and I have no 'aspirations' as I have achieved everything I set out to do.

Back in the good 'ol days when a company required pilots it looked for licensed, rated pilots as its first choice. When those weren't available then the company looked at licensed, qualified pilots and, under the companies own steam, type rated them, based trained them if required and then line trained them to operate the companies aircraft on the line for the company to generate revenue. No 'pay for type rating', no 'bond' just required training for a qualified professional to be able to do their job.

As Flying_Shortly has so optimistically pointed out, in some companies the wages are, indeed, very good. This has led to an increase in the 'low houred' pilots seeking jobs with the airlines. Nothing at all wrong with that, everyone has to start somewhere. As the competition for jobs heated up a few organisations discovered that the natural wish to 'fly a big jet' could come with a hefty price attached. Thus was the paid for type rating born. The accountants wring their hands with glee and the board enjoy the raking in of money for a service that they, previously, had to pay for.

So, not only are junior pilots paying for their type rating, line training etc. They are then bonded at a lower wage for 5 years so that the companies involved can fully extract their blood. Add to this the 'pay for line training' and you have a disastrous recipe for the future. This has been seen time and time again in the Helicopter world where the masses of 'will fly gas turbine helicopters for free' brigades have driven the T's & C's of the normal line flying through the floor.

Where will career satisfaction go? What will be career progression when there is another pilot, more junior than you and with more money that wants your seat? Airline T's & C's are dictated by a pilots wish to move up from the light GA aircraft to the twin to the Turbo prop to the regional jet to the LH jet. This normally comes with a wage increase and a better lifestyle. Remove that wish to progress by flattening the wage curve and removing the lifestyle issues and the airlines will have no need to maintain good terms and conditions as their current pilot workforce will have nowhere to 'upgrade' to. The thrill of 'flying a jet' wears off after a while, trust me.

Airlines are cutting costs in every department. Anything that gives them the ability to CHARGE pilots to come to work to generate revenue for them has got to be fundamentally wrong. Add to that the requirement to pay for uniforms, ID cards, airport parking, meals during the duty day, water, tea and coffee etc. and you have one almighty mess that will take years to sort out.

I fly for a large national airline and we have many FO's from a certain employer who operates a scheme like the one above. They are the lucky ones, they say so themselves, as they have managed to get out into a reputable carrier. Sometimes, in a large airline, we lose sight of how it can be in these outfits and these FO's bring back a sense of how bad the system at the bottom has become.

To sum up, with the current downturn, pilots are looking for ever more desperate ways to get on the first rung of the ladder. That is human nature and in some respects has to be admired for tenacity. Sadly it is also human nature of some to take financial advantage of the same pilots for the gain of the company board members and investors. Until this unsavoury practice is knocked on the head and companies required to provide, safe, adequate training for their operators then there will continue to be an ever increasing pressure on the T's & C's throughout the industry. Sadly the 'wannabees' of today will be the Captains of tomorrow lamenting the loss and demise of a great industry.

You pays your money and takes your choice.

clanger32

12th May 2009, 10:57

wobble - A fantastic post. Thankyou for some sanity
However, the one thing I think that is missing from your post is the "how" you stop the rot. Unfortunately - regardless of the reality - airline flying is still perceived by those that don't know as aspirational and brilliantly paid.

Anyone that's involved in training or further down line knows the truth is far from this, but it's also way too easy for those who have only ever worked in aviation to perceive that it's better elsewhere.

To my mind, a very large chunk of the problem lies in that inherently pilots do not form a cohesive workforce. You rarely fly with the same crew twice and therefore there is a lack of loyalty to anyone other than yourself....the person you screw over by acting in your own interests (metaphorically - I doubt any individual pilot has the ability to screw over anyone literally) is just some faceless entity you will never meet. It's much harder to act in a selfish manner if the person you screw over is the good mate from the office you go for a beer with on a Friday night.

The problems all stem from a root cause of supply and demand...there are too many people willing to do the job, hence advantage CAN be taken of them. If there were only ever as many people available as needed, Ts and Cs would be far better.

For as long as we live in a "free" world, then it's impossible to stop the countless throngs of people wanting to train for the licence, so there will be the oversupply of new pilots until the Ts and Cs become so bad that people stop wanting to do it, unless something else is done.

Personally, I think that there needs to be more barriers to entry - without wishing to start the modular Vs Integrated debate, you can start training without even having a single GCSE pass if you have the money - that has to be wrong? and if we accept that and demand at least a base level of education as a pre-requisite to the issue of a CPL/ATPL then you've at least moved in the right direction to the redress of Ts and Cs

baz76

12th May 2009, 11:45

Clanger,

Your last paragraph is exactly what I was thinking. Its all about money, if you can spend £££££, you can be a pilot. No qualification required. This is really disappointing. What about people like myself who are educated and have experience in their field, what if they want to be a pilot but dont have resources?

Grass strip basher

12th May 2009, 11:54

I agree the barriers to entry are very low relative to other professions.... to get the necessary qualifications at least.

Cost is the biggest issue but money can be borrowed (still). The written exams are not really that hard given most candidates can pass fairly easily with a c80-90% average and most of the questions asked are in the public domain anyway. This is not a real barrier anymore like it was say 15-20 years ago. (My old man says it was actually quite tough when he went to Hamble on the old BA scheme back in the dark ages.... no Bristol question bank then!).

The IR is tough but again more people pass than fail having got that far. Getting into medical school/the legal profession/investment banking (back in the day) is far far harder.

The medical side of things (Class 1) takes no inherent skill and loosening of eye sight requirements etc in the last 4-5 years has opened the profession up to a huge number of additional folks who would not otherwise have "qualified" for training.

The airline training industry is set up to suck as much cash out of you as possible and in many cases downright lies about the prospect of being employed. This is different to training for other profession (see medical school entry requirements etc). It encourages oversupply.

I sense this post may irk some folks but it is one of the obvious reasons for the over supply in wanabees. I am not saying they should make it harder to qualify.... it is just a fact of life...... too much oversupply of "qualified" pilots will continue to drive down T&Cs.... it is basic economics. :sad:

Cows getting bigger

12th May 2009, 12:23

If you look at the issue from a business perspective, there is absolutely no reason to alter the status quo (flight safety considerations aside). Part of the problem is that aviators have fuelled the dream (illusion?) that flying is glamourous, sexy etc etc. We hide behind big words/acronyms, tell tales of 'daring do' and encourage people to aspire to be like us (complete with a few gold bars). In this respect, we are very similar to the military in encouraging an environment of social hierarchy. The reality is (and has been for some time) that most flying as a job is not glamourous, can be exceedingly boring, plays havoc with any idea of a stable lifestyle and is like many other jobs. We do it for various reasons: to pay bills; because we value those rare few seconds of freedom; we believe that things will get better; it's all we're good at; we are afraid of leaving our comfort zone. When we wake up and realise that our job is no different to any other profession then maybe things will improve. But as long as there are those who are willing to sell the family silver (literally) to get a blue plastic wallet (followed sometime later by a green one) then things will never change, despite the combined wisdom of PPRuNe. :ok:

Of course, the above may just be the result of one too many drams before lunch. :eek:

wobble2plank

12th May 2009, 12:48

Why should educational background be a barrier to starting an ATPL?

If you trawl the internet you will find that you can start courses at universities around the world for Law, Medical, Business, Accountancy etc. all without prior qualification. All, however for a cost.

Make the ATPL exams tougher perhaps. Have more stringent testing both at the academic level and the simulator/aircraft level.

Who knows, but, when the companies need pilots the more desperate the company is the lower the standards bar is set. Simple. It's down to economics. When a resource is needed then it is actively pursued, when not, that resource must actively pursue the requirement.

Whilst people are still willing to pay to get that job and are willing to pay for the TR and the line training, the companies will continue to willingly take their money. If no one pays, the companies won't charge. But it will take a generation of Wannabees with big cahoonas to make that jump.

Grass strip basher

12th May 2009, 13:40

betpump wasn't saying educational standards should be a limiting factor.
In fact agree 100% with your post.... but if you limit training to people in their mid-twenties you run the risk they are not gullible enough by that age to think that spending 100k largely funded with debt to join Ryanair is a good idea.... that might be good for the candidate but not necessarily for the airlines accountants or fly schools.... so unfortuntely won't happen.... instead T&C's will continue to erode.

Alos the lefty nampy pampies will crack on about human rights etc etc.

flying_shortly

12th May 2009, 14:01

Personally, I plan on completing my modular training and if necessary I will use Ryanair to get hours and experience in order to achieve my main aims and ambitions which aren't necessarily to earn huge amounts of money. I plan on remaining debt free too. To be comfortable, happy and doing what I want are sufficient for me.

wobble2plank

12th May 2009, 14:24

Personally I found that the flying stopped as soon as I moved to airliners. :sad:

Airline flying is, at its best, dull and at its worst, terminally dull. But then that's what the passengers expect.

I depends on what you want from a career. If you wish to spend all of your time sitting in the front of a pressurised aluminium tube following a green or magenta line then airlines are for you.

Alternatively go for some BJ flying, instructing, African/Australian bush flying, helicopter flying instead. Have a ball, learn to fly properly and then, when all of the fun stuff is behind you, go for the airlines. You may not be as senior but at least you will be able to look back at a fun career.

clanger32

12th May 2009, 15:08

So Betpumps, last time out I didn't particularly like something you'd said. this time I applaud you and in particular your comment around being slightly hypocritical. It's very much to your credit that you recognise that it's what got you your break and that it would be disingenuous to criticise anyone else for doing the same.

RE: educational requirements - I'm not exactly endowed with the greatest academic achievements myself and there are several inconsistencies that I'd argue vehmentley which make academia no more than a side show. However, what I was referring to is a base level of education - the standard "5 GCSEs or O levels grade C or above". You could mitigate the effect on people who were less priviliged with a simple "or equivalent", where clearly an open university degree or similar more than fills the requirement.

Age is also a good method of limiting the numbers for my mind. Let's face it, I would suspect that more of the SLF public would be slightly ill at ease with a 19 year old up front, than those that would be fine with it.

Another method would be to formalise some kind of standard pre-professional training aptitude test. Clearly some people are better than others at these, but the overall idea is that to preserve Ts & Cs you need to reduce the numbers who CAN do it. Of course, this will never fly, because it does reduce the options for the airlines and FTOs themselves.

Wobble - I hate to say it, but I think you're in for a let down if you expect the newly qualified pilots to stop paying for the ratings. It's the selfish instinct again - there will ALWAYS be one person who can and will pay to get ahead and as long as that option exists for them they'll take it. And whilst that one person can take the option, others have no choice but to match them, or fall away back into the pack of also rans. Personally, I rather suspect the only way to stop these schemes would be for the TRIs and TREs to simply refuse to train people who were self paying. After all, there is no better placed person to know the damage it's doing and if there's no-one to train them, then you can't sell the position...

Parson

12th May 2009, 15:12

Wobble2plank,

Am sure many wanabees would follow your advice, but;

FI - little or no jobs currently available
BJ - yes, if you have 1000+ hrs (see above)
Bush flying - many have ties to the UK and just can't go globe trotting
Helicopters - well yes, if you want go rotary but not alot of use for fixed wing

Under the old "self-improver" route, there was a natural progression of PPL-BCPL-FI-MEIR-air taxi-turbo prop and on and up... This helped those who couldn't go down the military or sponsored route.

With the advent of mod/integrated courses, anyone with cash can instantly be 'right hand seat' qualified in a few months and there are simply too many. Hence reduced T's & C's for all. It's supply and demand and the situation is unlikely to change, even when there is an upturn.

wobble2plank

12th May 2009, 15:59

Parson,

Thanks for that, no-one was ever going to take it seriously on a 'Wannabee' a jumbo jet pilot forum anyway. :}

Just the musings of someone who wonders what drives people to fly big, boring aircraft from the age of 21 to the, now, age of 65.

Sadly, as you say, there are too many of 'em.

:rolleyes:

flyboy1818

12th May 2009, 16:13

I can't really see how the age limit suggestion makes any sense, in America you need to be 23 to hold an ATP and many similar problems exist with the training system and the over supply of low houred pilots. I have two friends who fly for a legancy carrier, they are 25 and 27. One of the main things they said to me when I started my ATPL's last year at 22 is that I was starting at the optimum age because I would probably land my first professional job between the ages of 25 and 27, I was told this was a good thing because the Airlines would still view me as young, but at the same time I would not face the hang ups of lack of maturity or lack of life experience. Both these guys trained when they were younger and they rekon that it was a mistake because they simply did not get jobs as they were not viewed as mature enough during interview, they only go there first jobs at 24 and 26 respectivley.

The Credit crunch should get rid of this pay for everything problem, it will take a while yet, maybe another year, but I doubt most people will be able to get a loan to pay for the type rating and associated line training shortly. Remember the Banks only really had a mass panic in November and many of the loans being used now to fund this nonsense were probably approved prior to this, wait until next year things will have changed!

Blindside

12th May 2009, 22:17

erm... where does one apply for this BJ and bush flying? :)

Sorry, couldn't resist.

:D

JohnRayner

12th May 2009, 23:12

You apply for your BJ via a reputable BJ provider

You are assessed to see if you are suitable for a BJ

If you are deemed suitable for a BJ you may get one, but if you do, you will pay through the nose for it, and there'll be no guarantee that 6 months down the line you won't feel sticky, itchy and unwell.

Sorry.

:ok:

JR

p.s. "bush flying"... Strictly postgraduate!

wobble2plank

13th May 2009, 07:21

Apparently MOL wanted to offer BJ flying but the German translator couldn't think up the word for it! :}

Guaranteed it would be expensive!

The trick with bush flying is not to tell the airfield operator about other bush fields you've operated to before. Apparently they may rescind approach rights again in the event of a go-around.

Enjoy.

Parson

13th May 2009, 08:06

Wobble2plank - I took your comments seriously. And it's a pity that the 'old' traditional way of progressing has gone (I missed it by a few months) which I'm sure produced more rounded pilots.

clanger32

13th May 2009, 11:16

So, Caveat up front, that I don't know. Also I don't really have an opinion...I have nothing more than my basic (well, minimum required to get professional licences) training and fully recognise that this qualifies me as probably no more than "not a total beginner any more".

But, I have to ask, as a discussion point, DOES the old route provide more rounded pilots? really? everyone I know who has stepped into a jet sim having previously flown nothing more complex than a light twin has found that it is a totally different world. Therefore, whilst I'll accept there is no substitute for experience and further that you do more "hands on" flying in a light a/c, I don't know that it necessarily makes a jot of difference. Or perhaps I should express it more as "does it make a jot of difference".

I.e. someone who goes traditional route may attain [say] 1500 hours...however, none of this is in operating jets, which is a totally, totally different ball game than anything <7500kg. Someone that goes straight from an FTO to the RHS of a 737 or 320 and has built 1500 hours won't probably have anything like the competence in a light a/c but will be significantly more competent in their own a/c. Is one therefore "better" than the other, given the huge gap in required skills between the two?

discuss...

Mikehotel152

13th May 2009, 12:02

I suppose the fact that this thread has crept so far from the original topic is evidence that the upturn is not upon us :E

As for Clanger32's question, I would have thought handling skills developed in smaller aircraft would be of benefit in a jet. After all, a 737 is still an aeroplane and when all else fails, in an emergency, a pilot who automatically reverts to 'flying it like a Cessna' will probably come through ok.

But that doesn't mean that someone with 1500 hrs on light twins will have the aptitude for flying a modern glass cockpit jet.

clanger32

13th May 2009, 12:16

Was just think MikeHotel, this thread has crept very, very far from both it's original purpose and the one it came to represent! However, still an interesting debate (although, agreed, possibly not correctly placed on this thread)

I would have to take issue though, with the concept of being ok if "you flew it like a cessna". From my very limited experience of the 737 sim, it is an entirely different beast, significantly more slippery than an SEP and less than half as forgiving....I'd actually go so far as to say even trying to fly it like a cessna would be a recipe for disaster! (but then, I bow to those with more knowledge than I!)

vlieger

13th May 2009, 12:54

How about this article from the Financial Times to get back on topic:
Downturn bottomed out, Trichet signals (http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/03d19fd6-3e2d-11de-9a6c-00144feabdc0.html?ftcamp=Late_headline1/NL/UKMay2009/Vanilla_shoots/0/&nclick_check=1)

"Jean-Claude Trichet signalled on Monday that the global downturn had bottomed out with some large economies already able to put the recession behind them and look forward to renewed growth.
The European Central Bank president’s comments on Monday in Basel, Switzerland, had added weight because he was speaking on behalf of the world’s leading central bankers, not just for the eurozone."

Wee Weasley Welshman

13th May 2009, 18:09

Sorry - the bond market says no.

By printing money and dropping interest rates to the underlay they've bought a little bit of time and averted the immediate failure of the worlds banking system and a Depression.

However, the stench from all that newly printed money will soon become overpowering.

This is a long way from over.

WWW

Mikehotel152

13th May 2009, 18:39

Clanger32 - I think you misunderstood the gist of my comment. Your comments on the characteristics of the 737 are true as far as I know but that doesn't mean basic stick 'n rudder techniques don't apply equally as well to the 737 as they do to smaller aeroplanes. That said, there are obvious exceptions to the rule.

Back to WWW and his words of wisdom.

Keith.Williams.

14th May 2009, 06:59

Will you guys please stop ruining this thread by talking about flying.

TRY TO REMEMBER THAT THIS IS THE BANKING/FINANCE FORUM

Mikehotel152

14th May 2009, 07:32

:eek: Banking and Finance only? No flying? Aarrrrgh! Ok, fine, here's a poignant and interesting quote from a book I'm reading:

The year reached almost the end of its third quarter under the promise and appearance of increasing prosperity, particularly in the United States. Extraordinary optimism sustained an orgy of speculation. Books were written to prove that economic crisis was a phase which expanding business organization and science had at last mastered. “We are apparently finished and done with economic cycles as we have known them”, said the President of the New York Stock Exchange... But…a sudden and violent tempest swept over Wall Street. The intervention of the most powerful agencies failed to stem the tide of panic sales. A group of leading banks constituted a millard-dollar pool to maintain and stabilize the market. All was vain.

The whole wealth so swiftly gathered in the paper values of previous years vanished. The prosperity of millions of American homes had grown upon a gigantic structure of inflated credit, now suddenly proved phantom. Apart from the nationwide speculation in shares which even the most famous banks had encouraged by easy loans, a vast system of purchase by instalment of houses, furniture, cars and numberless household conveniences and indulgences had grown up. All now fell together. The mighty production plants were thrown into confusion and paralysis…Today the grievous pangs of falling wages and rising unemployment afflicted the whole community, engaged till this moment in the most active creation of all kinds of desirable articles for the enjoyment of millions.

…A general contraction of trade in the face of unemployment and declining production followed…The general crisis brought with it acute monetary difficulties, and paralysed internal credit. This spread ruin and unemployment far and wide throughout the globe...The entire banking system of the [USA] was thrown into confusion and temporary collapse. Howeve, nobody starved in the English-speaking world.

Who said it?

happyjack

14th May 2009, 08:31

Handling skills vs Airline flying.

Having had more than my fair share of flying with F/O's (and even Captains) who are essentially "skill less" away from pushing buttons, my feeling are that it is very disapointing and gives me no confidence in where this is going.
So little confidence in fact that even on long haul flights I find I cannot leave some of these guys alone at all. I am therefore confined to the "box" the entire flight. Many will think this is over-reacting but I can assure you that through experience, not to mention witnessing pilots who simply cannot fly a circuit, I have learned the hard way how some guys can get you into serious trouble very quickly when left alone!

My feelings are that the old way of building experience through pistons, charter, turbo-prop, small jet etc produced a much more rounded pilot. Applying oneself and hand flying the aircraft becomes second nature. 90% of your time can then be focused of the management of the a/c.

Unfortunately I see less and less of these qualities these days. What I see is newbees straight into a 737 and then up for command in 3 years. I cannot imagine where the confidence emenates from? Arrogance and ignorance together is a dangerous mix!

biaeghh

14th May 2009, 08:46

Mikehotel,

Was it Enid Blyton by any chance????

Mikehotel152

14th May 2009, 08:56

biaeghh - nope, but not a bad guess. :)

FrenchScotPilot

14th May 2009, 09:00

Winston S Churchill "The Gathering Storm" ?

wobble2plank

14th May 2009, 09:58

J K Rowling?

Mikehotel152

14th May 2009, 10:37

Ah, bugger, FrenchScotPilot got it...:*

Churchill was indeed referring to the crash of 1929. Isn't it sad how history repeats itself.

quant

14th May 2009, 19:13

Ah, bugger, FrenchScotPilot got it...http://static.pprune.org/images/smilies/bah.gif

Churchill was indeed referring to the crash of 1929. Isn't it sad how history repeats itself.

I have no doubt that it will do again someday! Until we get rid of this system it will happen again and again :sad:

JohnRayner

14th May 2009, 21:28

it will happen again and again

Quite.

As far as I can tell, economics (and things like commercial aviation, funnily enough), as practised by the western world right now has to have periods of slump to correct for any periods of runaway expansion.

Boom and bust are dirty words in many quarters (well, bust is, anyway :}), but it's the way the western world does it business right now, and for the last few decades. The trick seems to be a) figuring out when to get on the wheel for maximum personal benefit, and b) spotting when the tits up point is coming and putting yourself in a position to ride it out at a minimum personal loss.

Of course, if the cycle doesn't come around again one day, what then? :eek:

Sleep tight, campers

JR

JohnRayner

14th May 2009, 21:30

Isn't it sad how history repeats itself.

Apparently it does that if you forget it.

dartagnan

15th May 2009, 15:41

I would like to warn you that it will take 6 years to recover to the same economic situation in 2008.
not only this, but, the worse will come for wanabe pilots. I expect 60%of TRTOs will be bust during these next 2-3 years.

general motor will be out soon with Chrysler, and more companies will go down.
if you are looking to start your training now, don't. Lot of chance that your school will shut down right after your deposit.

Sorry guys, I work with the best economists and the futur is not rosy at all.

flyboy1818

15th May 2009, 16:11

err hello its called pay as you go! Mind you I think your right about TRTO's going bust, no bank will lend the money to do a type rating shortly, so its going to be down to the airlines to pay for ratings again which means less ratings will be completed especially in this environment!

quant

15th May 2009, 21:24

Sorry guys, I work with the best economists and the futur is not rosy at all.

I work with some of the best to and i have friends all over the city the say quite the opposite. Stop listening to Jeff Randall on sky news and be positive ;)

Wee Weasley Welshman

16th May 2009, 08:08

Using the last recession as a guide house prices took from 1989 to 1996 to stage an inflation adjusted recovery to growth. John Major was talking about green shoots of recovery several years before sustained economic growth at levels above a single % year seen.

There were several stock market rallies and every third month house prices actually rose.

18 months in, history suggests we have quite a way to go yet. The really unpleasant phase is the unemployment spike which hasn't yet happened. It is starting to happen. See for example BT's announcement of yesterday making 10% of its employees redundant. Large employers up and down the land are starting to do this. Proper jobs, decent incomes, breadwinners all losing their jobs or desperately fearing it. Never mind a few poxy part time posts as Woolies. As I said earlier, in the last recession Dan Air and Air Europe (both in the top four biggest UK airlines at the time) went bust AFTER the recession technically ended.

We're a long way from a safe runway right now.

WWW

clear prop!!!

16th May 2009, 10:10

As I said earlier, in the last recession Dan Air and Air Europe (both in the top four biggest UK airlines at the time) went bust AFTER the recession technically ended.

Bad companies will go bust regardless of recessionary effects.

Dan Dair went bust because the industry started to boom!

Most of their business was charter work, which went when Tour Operators started up their own Airlines.. in droves. Added to that they had a hotch potch of different, old and uneconomical to maintain aircraft which added to their inevitable demise.

Air Europe (started by 2 Dan Air Directors!!), went down because their business plan was a sham. Under capitalised and chasing the wrong markets, with,… a parent Co which went bust for similar reasons.

Not good examples!

I do accept that times are hard and not a good time to start an integrated course.

By the way WWW, you asked, somewhat sarcastically, some time ago, how house prices were doing in Scotland.

Again, an example of reading what you want to read.

With a ‘half full’ approach to life, the BBC (slightly more accurate generally than the local evening rag you quoted), state that house prices in 7 Scottish regions are up. That said overall prices are down 6 to 8% YonY, not quite the 40% predicted and overall have still been a good investment for those not in for the short term.

Still, I agree it’s not good.

Wee Weasley Welshman

16th May 2009, 11:31

City house prices drop by 10 per cent - Edinburgh Evening News (http://edinburghnews.scotsman.com/breaking-edinburgh-news/City-house-prices-drop-by.5233924.jp)

City house prices drop by 10 per cent

Published Date: 05 May 2009

HOUSE prices in Edinburgh have fallen by 10 per cent in the last year.

I thought house prices in Edinburgh never went down? Curious.

Yeah - Dan and Air Europe had their faults as airlines and after a recession they both went bust. There are several household name airlines in the UK with equally faulty business plans.

Either this time its different or this recession will result in a few more, and bigger, airline failures. Time will tell all. I remember that life was VERY VERY tough for Wannabes and unemployed pilots right through to 1995. Which in todays money would be 2012.

WWW

WWW

ZeBedie

16th May 2009, 12:01

With the current budget deficit, public spending cuts of 20% are going to be required to get government spending under control. That'll be a couple of million jobs lost then. Therefore we could be looking at unemployment hitting 5 million:eek:

Rugbyears

16th May 2009, 15:09

Comments are now becoming foolish, I accept there are those who offer a sound and logical view point, such as WWW and others. Nevertheless, such statements as 5 Mil unemployed is way way from the mark. Frankly scare tactics!:mad:

Come on chaps keep posts sensible...

dartagnan

16th May 2009, 16:13

airlines make money in summer and winter, during a good time.
But now,I expect airline to start filing bankrupt right after summer for lack of cash. Waiting for next christmas in a hope that recession will end, is a long run and a dream.
do you know how much lose BA every day ? a lot....
all airlines are losing money...
TRTO's in my point of view are already dead and many wanabes will lose their cash! pay as you go, cuz I have lost money already. (not a lot, so I didn't care, but I lost money!)

GLOBAL PREMIUM AIR TRAVEL DEMAND
Global premium ticketed demand plummeted at an even faster pace in February 2009, falling by 21.1%, following a 16.7% decline in January. Even allowing for the extra day in February 2008, which would require a 3-3.5% adjustment, the pace at which demand is contracting has deteriorated.

The pace of decline in economy demand also accelerated, falling from 4.7% to 8.3%. However, after adjustment, the two months’ performances are broadly similar, reflecting some benefit from business passengers trading down.

Among the large premium markets, Asia was the weakest performer, with demand falling by 26.4%, its third consecutive month with demand contracting at a similarly poor level.

The performance of the North Atlantic segment has shown a concerning and marked deterioration, with the 22.5% decline comparing unfavourably with falls of 14.5% and 8.8% in January 2009 and December 2008 respectively. This reflects the pace at which the US and European economies have contracted in recent months. As the business travel sector is normally among the first to show signs of revival, with a recovery in international trade likely to lead any recovery, signs that the downturn in the economy may be close to bottoming out should auger well for premium demand during the second half of 2009.

Travel within Africa remained the only region to deliver premium demand growth in February, although the rate of growth has been sharply curtailed from 18.9% in January to just 2.8%, and this does remain a very small market.

The slowdown in the rate of demand contraction in the Europe-Far East market, from 21.2% in January to 19.6% in February (excluding the Leap Year adjustment) may be interpreted as an early sign that a floor in the major markets could now be close.

-------------------

Our vision is to be the world’s leading global premium airline and the airline of choice for millions of people across the world. But we are facing major financial difficulties. The deepening recession is being felt everywhere and more than 30 airlines have gone bust. At the same time, we’re seeing our competitors improving their products and becoming stronger through new alliances.

We need to take action now in order to become more competitive and to safeguard the future of BA. We must continue to invest in new fleet, products and services and we need to work better together.

quant

16th May 2009, 18:55

The message from the Bank of England Governor Mervyn King this week was that it is going to be a very long haul for the British economy. Any recovery will be slow and protracted, a long grind. Therefore, some think, any further rally in shares is going to be slow and grudging.

Is investment plan structured or perplexing? - Times Online (http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/columnists/article6296910.ece)

:uhoh:

ZeBedie

17th May 2009, 16:20

such statements as 5 Mil unemployed is way way from the mark. Frankly scare tactics!

Let's review that comment in two years time. I hope you're right and I'm wrong. Time will tell.

Grass strip basher

18th May 2009, 03:58

So far the UK "jobless rate" is 2.22mn up 244k in the last quarter. That takes it to 7.1%.

You add in the c2.5mn (yes that is not a typo... 2.5mn) people claiming "incapacity benefit" which for many is just a ruse to avoid doing a decent days work and you are not far off 5 mn already.

So I am confused why is 5mn unemployed such a "scare story".... just because labour lies call the mass unemployed something else these days for propaganda purposes doesn't mean they are not still "unemployed" and a drain on the country's resources....

Spain is well on its way to 20% unemployment... Ireland is already at 11%.... but oooooh no that couldn't happen here because we have a government that knows what it is doing..... errrrhemmm.:sad:

I can't help but feel despite everything that is in the press people on this forum still do not "get it".... the situation is not just bad... it is bloomin awful.

kj990

18th May 2009, 13:59

Brown's ex-MPC stooge Danny Blanchflower reckons on an 'official' 4 million.

He's supposed to be an (un)employment wizzard.

Rugbyears

18th May 2009, 17:05

You add in the c2.5mn (yes that is not a typo... 2.5mn) people claiming "incapacity benefit" which for many is just a ruse to avoid doing a decent days work and you are not far off 5 mn already.

GSB....With the greatest of respect, whether you or I choose to agree, the fact remains those claiming incapacity benefit can not be used as a statistic to bolster your projected unemployment statistics. I would suggest that the clue is in the title ‘incapacity’

Foolishly perhaps, I tend to view the majority of those claiming incapacity benefit, honest, furthermore entitled to it. Of course, the argument could be reversed somewhat, there are those who choose to reside in full-time employment, despite quite frankly, not being well enough, as an example my father - I guess it’s horses for courses – Nevertheless, it is sad when we as a society adopt such a cynical view point.

Indeed, this is simply my interpretation, and you are free to disagree. However, in my opinion, I disagree entirely with the 5 million projected unemployed figure, rather I would articulate a realistic figure in the region of three and a half million.:)

dartagnan

18th May 2009, 18:44

a realistic figure is that the USA are in debt of 10 trillions$ and they wont never pay back this money.It will crack very soon!

one day, all services in USA will be shut down. Hospitals, police offices, public transports,schools, road, Army, ATC etc... it's going to be a nightmare.

why? cuz arab countries will one day stop to loan money to the USA when they will realize it's over.Until now they pay, because US buy their oil.... until a certain point...and after this point, we will go to a civil war.

buy gold and stock as much food you can before it' s too late!

YouTube - U.s. National Debt Grows To Large For National Debt Clock (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A7MvXUDrZ0Q)

YouTube - Our National Debt Clock (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=txkzsQGHGeM&feature=related)

ZeBedie

18th May 2009, 18:53

Yes, 3.5 million sounds a sensiible figure, but only if we don't get the much needed 20% cut in public spending. And since the public sector is about 50% of the economy, isn't that a further 10% of all jobs dissapearing, in general terms?

ZeBedie

18th May 2009, 19:02

Actually, I'm wrong, public sector workers are about 20% of total workers, 5.5 millon of them. Sorry.

GBB

18th May 2009, 20:24

dartagnan,

Take a chill pill mate :}
I know... 6 years to recover... apocalypse is here... :rolleyes:

32SQDN

20th May 2009, 15:09

Just a litle input to the original thread theme. I have an engineering company employing 25 people and we have had it very very tough for 6-9 months and have had to lose 5 employees and go down to a 4 day week.
However, it does look might it might have bottomed out from our point of view as an SME manufacturer.
We have just gone back up to a 5 day week.
This by no means we are out of the woods yet and we could well see a another downturn in the next few months but nevertheless we are seeing more demand.

Just to clarify, we are not in high volume automotive but sectors we supply are: Motorsport, Construction equipment, Power generation, Commercial vehicle transmission, Rail infrastructure and a little bit of Aerospace.

Wee Weasley Welshman

20th May 2009, 15:41

Japan, the worlds number two economy, today annouced a quarterly fall of 4% in its GDP. Annualized this becomes a 15.2% fall. Its the biggest ever recorded, the worst since WW2, its simply a massive loss of GDP in a massive economy.

Like most things that fall off a cliff there will be a bounce. There are a lot of hopes being pinned on this being the bottom. I think that's as tragic as in Blackadder Goes Fourth when George believes the guns have stopped because the war is over and announces with delight "the Great War 1914 to 1917...."

The worlds major economies have mortgaged the future, slashed interest rates to the floor and flooded money supply. None of which is desireable. Simply to avoid anarchic economic collapse and get us this pause for breath. The flightplan to a sound, expansionary, global economy is a long and challenging one.

Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.

WWW

p111lot

20th May 2009, 16:05

Do not know what you are all worrying about, Swine flu is going to kill 49Million people in the UK, and employment will then be 99%. In addition, the USA is going to declare war on Belgium and Finland, which I fear will result in a Nuclear War to end all Wars! Go to Tesco and buy as much bread as you can NOW NOW DAMMIT SAVE YOURSELVES!!!

Actually, do not go to Tesco they are a secret organised group of communists.

quant

20th May 2009, 22:13

batman123

21st May 2009, 21:33

Since this crisis has started last oct-nov 2008, I strongly believe the medias have made it worse. Now they have change their story!
Do you really belive it 's the end?

Keith.Williams.

22nd May 2009, 07:03

I'm investing in shotguns and turnip seeds.

If things get to be as bad as people are predicting I'll need them.

If they don't, then i'll use the shotguns to plant the turnips, then use the turnips for target practice.

quant

22nd May 2009, 07:06

British Airways has announced the biggest loss since the company was privatised in 1987.

BBC NEWS | Business | BA nosedives into massive losses (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8062844.stm)

:eek:

TheBeak

22nd May 2009, 09:16

Willie Walsh making good sense and telling it how it is. No doubt somehow all the day dreaming, head in the sand brigade will call him a doom monger...... after all what does he know?!?! People looking to start training now or anytime soon should watch the video and listen to Willie Walsh, or else face a life of regret......

Cirrus_Clouds

22nd May 2009, 10:28

People can still start training now, but do it slowly. Just with the ATPL stuff alone (ATPL Theory/CPL/ME/IR), you can spread it out over 5 years maximum to be within the limits. So if you've yet to get a PPL, Night rating, IMC, hour build, do it now and leave the rest until later. You can take as long as you want with the inital things, but as soon as you start the ATPL aspect, from the point of sitting the first ATPL exam, the 5 yr clock starts ticking.

I've done my flying over 10yrs.

It would be a very high risk to do integrated courses now, not modular, because you can pace yourself with the times, that's what i'm doing, rather than giving a quick view without taking into account the other aspects to consider.

Artie Fufkin

22nd May 2009, 12:57

Cirrus clouds, perhaps you could also add to your most educational post details of bears' defecation habits relative to the woods, or perhaps inform us all about the religous persuation of the pope?

quant

22nd May 2009, 12:59

The Emirates group, the largest airline in the Middle East, has reported a fall in profits of 72% for the 2008/09 fiscal year.

BBC NEWS | Business | Emirates airline profits down 72% (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8063581.stm)

:sad:

quant

26th May 2009, 11:48

Virgin Atlantic, the airline majority owned by Sir Richard Branson’s Virgin Group, announced this morning that its annual profits almost doubled in the year to February, as its rival, British Airways, slumped to its biggest loss in more than two decades.
Pre-tax profits at Virgin Atlantic soared from £34.8 million to £68.4 million in the year as more people flew using its premium services.
The increase came against a background of wildly fluctuating oil prices, which reached a record high of $147 dollars a barrel last July, and a global downturn. Almost six million people flew with Virgin Atlantic over the year.
The airline spent almost £1 billion on fuel during the year, but profits were aided by hedging its oil prices and currency benefitsVirgin Atlantic profits soar on premium flyers - Times Online (http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/transport/article6363204.ece)

At least we're doing something right :ok:

http://www.mysmiley.net/imgs/smile/party/party0031.gif

Wee Weasley Welshman

26th May 2009, 21:16

My hairy arse says they are losing money by the bucket load.

If BA are being tortured by their collapsing yields in First and Business then either everyones flying with Branson or Bransons lying. Anyone who has read up on the topic knows which is more likely.

This winter will see the demise of more than one UK airline. Wannabes beware.

WWW

v6g

27th May 2009, 01:40

WWW - You a dad yet there buddy?

EZYramper

27th May 2009, 09:33

Sooo.....

This winter looks like its going to be pretty bad, but this could very well be the lowest of the low for this particular downturn. From then on we are looking at a very long, drawn out recovery, to a position that isn't quite back upto 2006 levels, by about 2012/2013.

That's my guess.

Rugbyears

27th May 2009, 11:43

Apologies but I maintain late 2010 early 2011 the economy will present strong growth statistics. Although, I would argue that the aviation world will not feel the effects of any recovery until the middle of 2012.

I would therefore question whether now is rather a good time to be considering doing completing the ATPLs. Remember the market will be a tough nut to crack with several thousand experienced crew out there vying for the same positions. Sadly, I would argue that is life, it is up to you as an individual to make yourself an attractive option to the perspective employers – Please though, don’t consider self financing line training or even the type rating!!:)

disco87

27th May 2009, 12:26

I think I shall start in a year from now, all things being equal that is

Alex Whittingham

27th May 2009, 14:21

My hairy arse says they are losing money by the bucket load

I know their stock is not listed but do you really think Virgin would lie as transparently as you suggest in a press release - particularly when the full year results will ultimately be published? I've done a quick search to see if any analysts agree with your hirsute derriere but it seems to be on its own on this one. Would appreciate any supporting evidence?

Right Touch

27th May 2009, 15:59

Virgin Atlantic, the UK long-haul airline controlled by Sir Richard Branson, said its pre-tax profits had almost doubled last year – but the results were helped by its status as a private company and the rules under which it reports its accounts.
The airline is 49 per cent owned by Singapore Airlines (http://markets.ft.com/tearsheets/performance.asp?s=sg:C6L)and figures from the Singapore group, produced under the widely adopted international financial reporting standards, show Virgin Atlantic barely broke even in the 12 months to the end of March and was heavily lossmaking in the final quarter of that period.

FT.com / Companies / Airlines - UK rules help Virgin Atlantic profit (http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/c1d79142-49c8-11de-8e7e-00144feabdc0.html)

Alex Whittingham

27th May 2009, 16:26

Thanks, that's one for WWW's bottom. From your link I have:
A leading aviation auditor said that by IFRS and fair-value accounting rules, derivatives losses were recognised. By UK Gaap (generally accepted accounting practice) they were disclosed but not recognised in the results.

Mr Chan said: “They [Virgin Atlantic] do not apply IFRSs. So we had to make some adjustments in relation to their hedges and because they do use proxy hedges there are some adjustments for [the] ineffectiveness of the hedge.”

Chew Choon Seng, Singapore Airlines’ chief executive, said that during the financial year to March 31, its 49 per cent stake in Virgin Atlantic had contributed S$400,000, a virtual break even, to its total profits of S$111m from associate companies.

I'm trying to get my head around this. Are they saying that derivatives losses/profits don't show in the P&L using Gaap? Where would they appear then?

potkettleblack

27th May 2009, 18:43

Correct they won't appear until they are realised under UK GAAP. As far as I remember (and its been a long time since I did any debits and credits!) under International Accounting Standards you would mark to market any financial instruments - hedges, swaps etc. In other words even if the "contract" had not yet expired at the balance sheet date you would recognise the profit or loss on the particular financial instrument in question. Under UK GAAP which the article says Virgin use it doesn't have to recognise any profit or loss until it effectively crystallises into cash ie: the contract expires or money changes hands.

As a private company it presumably avails of lots of other financial reporting dispensations so in reality its results aren't comparable to many of its publicly listed competitors. As always the only indicators of any use would be the revenue per seat km, yields, cashflows, capex etc but they probably don't even bother disclosing that sort of stuff as they are not likely to have to as a private company.

Re-Heat

27th May 2009, 18:49

Alex - I tried for years to get my head around them as well, but quite frankly, they are ridiculously confusing. What is means is that someone can "hedge account", or offset a set of cash inflows and outflows, so that they show no profit or loss until the end of the life of the "arrangement" if they are intending hedging two items (such as foreign exchange and a derivatives contract with a bank). Under UK GAAP, you can designate this hedge arrangement and test it only at Day 1, forever after ignoring it.

IFRS requires continual retesting of the effectiveness of that arrangement, such that if it is ineffective, it is eliminated in accounting terms and an instand profit or loss is booked (even though the derivative itself is not terminated with the bank).

Confused? I am...and I used to test them myself.

I loathe them, as it means people hide things off balance sheet that they spring up on you in extreme circumstances. Obviously the actual hedging has a real economic value, but the accounting is quite frankly over-academic rubbish, primarily introduced to reduce banks' capital requirements. Didn't help in the present market surprisingly!

According to Chan Hon Chew, senior vice-president finance for Singapore Airlines, the group’s fourth-quarter associate losses of S$106m (£45.9m) had “largely” come from its share of losses at Virgin Atlantic.

He told investors this month that Singapore Airlines had to adjust Virgin Atlantic UK Gaap numbers to bring them into line with IFRS. The adjustments chiefly concern how derivatives – for example, fuel and currency hedges – are accounted for.

Alex Whittingham

27th May 2009, 19:59

Thank you both, that makes perfect sense. And there was me thinking that GAAP was regarded as superior to the American accounting conventions, or is that another can of worms? You live and learn!

Re-Heat

27th May 2009, 20:04

They are better...US GAAP is a prescriptive, rule-based mess...!

Grass strip basher

28th May 2009, 04:07

I would have thought that all that matters for young wanabees is that Virgin have been laying off pilots.

quant

29th May 2009, 15:42

Budget airline easyJet will not be able to offer couples the chance to get married in the skies after a Bedfordshire council rejected the plan.

BBC NEWS | England | Beds/Bucks/Herts | Airline's wedding plans scrapped (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/beds/bucks/herts/8074063.stm)

pitty i was looking forward to the day i would say rotate & then you may kiss the bride ;)

quant

29th May 2009, 18:54

Some good news:

House prices rose 1.2% in May on April, offering evidence of activity in the UK housing market, according to figures from the Nationwide building society.

BBC NEWS | Business | Rise reported in UK house prices (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8073157.stm)

:ok:

dartagnan

30th May 2009, 11:08

ahah, if some of you think it s a good time to start training. you are wrong. you were wrong years ago, and you are wrong again.

You can still start training and find yourself out of cash very soon. Training is still more expensive every month, the pound is low and will still devaluate until 2012, and the easy loan time is over.No bank will give you the money. What will happen to you next? you start training and you will find you need more money to finish (trto want more, or they are out of business, and you money is out too!).

Your bank will tell you if you want more, go get a job, and pay your debts, or you get nothing.even if you manage to finish your training, you will hang out in the streets with your nice shiny license and your miserable 200 hours in your logbook. I have seen many like these, some lost all their money in school bankrupt (over 30'000$).

where do you go then? when the market is filled with experience copilot ready to pay to work.

airlines don't need you, they never answer to you or send any information to you. It s the TRTO who make you believe there is a pilot shortage.
These TRTOs are out of business already but don's say anything, they are in a state of "survival", after winter they will close their doors as they can not pay electric bills(airlines will die one after one as well), and you will be stuck outside in the snow, with nothing!

you think I am kidding , because my English is not perfect? that is not possible( nobody can lose his money in a reputable TRTO)? let's see! I may come to bring you some old shoes I still have and a old pilot jackets full of holes. I will ask you to pay for the coffee, cuz easy coffee is over :} (now I am kidding cuz roastbeef prefer tea ).

Modular is the best, get trained with the money you have, and pay as you go!

Wee Weasley Welshman

30th May 2009, 13:53

House prices rose 1.2% in May on April, offering evidence of activity in the UK housing market, according to figures from the Nationwide building society.

In the period 1990 - 1992 when house prices were crashing last time house prices actually rose in 1 out of 3 months. Every month there was a rise the whole Vested Interest industry trumpeted it but were always very much quieter for the next two months when they fell again.

We've just had Spring and Easter which is to the house selling market what Christmas is to the High Street.

Against rising unemployment and looming interest rate rises talk of an end to house price deflation is nuts. All you need to know is the following:

The post war average house price is 3.5 times average earnings. Average earnings are £25k. Average house prices are still £148k. When they hit £100k then we'll start talking about bottoms. ;)

WWW

ps Airlines go bust after the recession ends usually.

Mikehotel152

30th May 2009, 15:06

ps Airlines go bust after the recession ends usually.

Oh good, that must mean the recession's nearly over, seeing as the harbingers of doom on Pprune have been telling us confidently for months that 30 major airlines will go bust by the end of 2009. Or was it by the end 2008? I can't remember now...the goalposts keep moving.

Wee Weasley Welshman

30th May 2009, 16:58

This winter will be bloody.

Did you miss Lufthansa trying to crash BMI (of which they own 30%) by claiming it didn't have the 3 months cash at hand required by the CAA. All so they could get out of buying 50% more of a business that lost £100m last financial year?

Either this economic cycle is different to all previous ones OR lots of significant airlines in Europe will go bust in the next two winters.

Your call.

WWW

quant

3rd Jun 2009, 07:28

Ryanair claimed bragging rights as Europe’s most valuable airline yesterday, despite plunging to its first loss in 20 years.
Michael O’Leary, the airline’s chief executive, was in a bullish mood while announcing a €169 million (£145 million) loss for the year to the end of March. He said that the airline would return to profit this year and promised another price war, which he hopes will drive other airlines out of business.
The airline’s market capitalisation has reached €5.3 billion. This compares with Lufthansa, the German flag carrier, worth €4.5 billion, and Air France, worth €3.4 billion. British Airways’ market capitalisation is about £1.8 billion.
On the basis of these figures, Mr O’Leary claimed provocatively that Ryanair would launch a takeover bid for Lufthansa: “We are having a serious look at Lufthansa,” he said. “We could almost buy it for cash.” He added later: “That should have them choking on their cornflakes in Frankfurt tomorrow morning.”
In a sideswipe at BA, Mr O’ Leary said that he would not buy the British flag carrier because it was just “a pension fund deficit with wings”. His comments were an allusion to the fact that BA is expected to reveal this month that its pension deficit has nearly doubled to £3 billion.

Europe’s most valuable airline Ryanair makes a loss - Times Online (http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/transport/article6418662.ece)

UK consumer optimism 'increases' (http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/transport/article6418662.ece)

UK consumers were more optimistic last month about the future than they had been for six months, according to the Nationwide Consumer Confidence index.

MOL does have a sense of humour afterall :eek:

dartagnan

3rd Jun 2009, 09:52

WWW is right, as long people loose their job, house market will continue to go down generally.Unemployment and house marked are linked together.

In USA, people are selling their house at 40%-50% of the "real value"of 1-2 years ago. Still, people are broke and live outside, in camping places, and loan are very hard to get. You don't get a loan when you have no job.

when the end of the recession will come(it will start in the USA probably), it will take several years to be back like 2007-2008.Maybe 5-8 years.During the first 3 years, it will be still very hard to get a job. This is why there is no need to rush in a flight training, considering it takes only 2 years to train a pilot.
Several airlines may be out of business in a few months(after summer 09 or after winter 2010), it will just ad more alcohol in the fire.

If you are young, I would wait 2011, and depending of the situation, start training around 2013 to be ready in 2015 for the high peak of employment.

Rugbyears

3rd Jun 2009, 18:54

I would strongly disgagree, those who are qualified and ready should be in a good position by 2012 - like always, if you want a job bad enough, you will find one!

TheBeak

3rd Jun 2009, 19:34

like always, if you want a job bad enough, you will find one!

You forgot to write on the end 'if you pay for it and work for nothing and are lucky enough to be selected for it'. Simply wanting a job is not enough. Being willing to work anywhere is not enough. Having experience at the moment is not enough. Luck and timing is everything. Not everyone will get a job, no matter how much they want it.

should be in a good position

Relative to what? The dreadful position we are all in now?

mikehammer

3rd Jun 2009, 20:48

In the period 1990 - 1992 when house prices were crashing last time house prices actually rose in 1 out of 3 months. Every month there was a rise the whole Vested Interest industry trumpeted it but were always very much quieter for the next two months when they fell again.

I was running my own property development business at that time, and also had an interest in an estate agency network. I suspect the figures you are quoting were produced by a combination of two Building Society surveys, namely the Northern Rock, and the Halifax. These figures were produced by canvassing chartered surveyors with a monthly survey form, which was filled out voluntarily. It was a highly subjective process and represented an amalgamation of many snapshot views, hence the probably inaccurate fluctuations of which you speak. At the time, at local level and on the front line we did not see these fluctuations, sales were just generally at rock bottom.

I still have an interest in that chain of estate agents: they rent some property from me, and so I take a keen interest in how their business is going. Chatting to their sales staff reveals that they have indeed noticed a real difference in the take up of properties recently. This is different from that experienced back in the 1990s, when the government offered no intervention and allowed interest rates to operate to their own wild limits.

It may be a short lived improvement but it is an improvement seen by the man on the street and his agent. In my memory this did not happen in the 90s.

We've just had Spring and Easter which is to the house selling market what Christmas is to the High Street.

Well, yes, but in my experience similar bonanzas occurred in September (ish) when holiday season ended, plus January was always a good time for listing properties for sale; once the real Christmas is over people, thinking about it already, granted, turn their focus to a possible move.

Alex Whittingham

4th Jun 2009, 08:03

Another reason might be that the "crash of '90 to '92" is only visible in the historic data when it is rebased against inflation, which was higher than today. The raw figures don't show much of either a fall or a rise of average prices, as mikehammer says.

Wee Weasley Welshman

4th Jun 2009, 08:34

Interest rates have been crash dived to 0.5% from 5%.

Mortgage rates remain around 5%. What happens when the base rate returns to 5% and has to go considerably higher to make government bonds attractive to international buyers?

I'll tell you what happens. House prices return to the their long term average of 3.5 times average earnings which means another 20% ish fall in prices.

This is a bear trap.

WWW

quant

7th Jun 2009, 15:44

PILOTS at British Airways are set to take a voluntary pay cut to help the airline weather a disastrous plunge in traffic that has led to it running up record losses.
The unprecedented move will be discussed this week at a meeting of the BA section of Balpa, the UK pilots’ union. Pilots are likely to be balloted on a range of cost-saving measures, including a small across-the-board pay cut, industry sources said. The union, which has held talks with BA ahead of this week’s meeting, hopes to have a package in place by the end of this month.
Willie Walsh, BA’s chief executive, has warned staff the company is in “a fight for survival”. He is seeking cost cuts across the board. While some groups of staff have played ball, Walsh said recently that talks with cabin crew had yielded little. The leaders of all BA’s unions are to meet tomorrow to discuss the airline’s plight.

British Airways pilots to take voluntary pay cut as air traffic falls - Times Online (http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/transport/article6445955.ece)

:sad:

flying_shortly

7th Jun 2009, 15:48

Something tells me, especially that WWW fella, that you lot in here make pessimism and bull:mad: more of a hobby than flying itself.

dartagnan

7th Jun 2009, 16:50

maybe WWW has problems like everyone here...
airlines pilots are not flying a lot these days. Base salary!:(

2 Whites 2 Reds

7th Jun 2009, 21:40

Apparantly the Cabin Crew are being faced with the option to go on voluntary part time contracts or face redundancies...... in my mind the whole company need to take the pay cuts on the chin including the Pilot's. It's regrettable but in my view it has to happen if thigns are so bad that the airline is in a fight for survival. None of us like it but better to be on 10% or even 20% less pay and have a job than sat at home with not earning. (I've plucked those percentages out of the air by the way, I haven't got a clue what the actual figures may be but if they're serious about saving some real dosh then I don't think that the cuts will be much less). :uhoh:

quant

8th Jun 2009, 08:13

The International Air Transport Association (Iata) says airlines may lose $9bn this year - almost double the estimate made just three months ago.BBC NEWS | Business | Airlines' losses to soar further (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8088595.stm)

:sad:

The US's third largest airline, United, is asking rival plane makers Boeing and Airbus to prepare bids for an order that could total 150 jets.
The carrier is hoping to take advantage of the recession to get a better price for the deal that could be worth $10bn dollars.

BBC NEWS | Business | United looking for plane bargain (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8084282.stm)

:ok:

Wee Weasley Welshman

8th Jun 2009, 11:55

Airlines to lose $9bn as recession bites - Times Online (http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/article6454529.ece)

The world’s airlines will lose $9 billion (£5.86 billion) in 2009, double the level forecast as recently as March, a key industry body warned today.

Airline losses in the first three months of the year have been much more severe than expected as the economic crisis continues to batter demand, Iata, the global airline trade association, said.

Iata, which represents 230 airlines worldwide, said that global airlines had experienced a “rapidly deteriorating revenue environment”.

Its not pessimistic to expect an engine failure at VR and I do that most days..

There's not one but two dispatchers at work who both graduated from Integrated courses last year. Both are bright and capable people. Both working in the industry albeit filling out the loadsheet rather than signing for it. Neither have a sniff of a job and nor the prospect of one.

So why do you think you'll be any different?

XL was just a tremor.

WWW

ZeBedie

8th Jun 2009, 20:11

Flying Shortly, you're probably young and bursting with enthusiasm. When I was young, I started flying with disdain for the recession. I was OK, the recession held me back a couple of years, but I got there in the end. But things are different now because this is more like a depression than a recession and because flying training involves a lot more money than it did when I was young. I know you'll ignore me and go ahead anyway - like I would have done, but please, have a plan B and don't borrow the money against your parents house.

Artie Fufkin

9th Jun 2009, 19:59

www

This winter will be bloody.
Isn't that what you said last year?

Yes, airlines have gone out of business but (and on the understanding this website is predominantly UK based) which major airlines went out?

1.XL . OK, a very big one, but it was a (rather spurious) inabillity to re-new credit rather than any recession-lead lack of demand, that sent them out of business.

2. Silverjet et al, great idea, wrong time.

3. VA made, what was it, approx 15 people (?) redundant.

4. BA made a big, but expected, loss asked for some voluntary early retirements. And with the way "The Pension" is going, a good move by the retirees.

And... ?? (from a UK "major" prespective)

You spent all of last summer promising us multiple major UK airline failures last winter due to this recession but we didn't really see it, did we? Even RYR managed an operating profit!

Still, I do agree, no jobs for several years, but lets just drop the drama-queen hysterics.

Edited to correct my daft spelling of "Excel"

TheBeak

9th Jun 2009, 20:19

1. Flightline
2. BritishJet
3. Air Europe
4. European
5. Sterling
6. LTE
7. XL
8. Futura
9. Zoom
10. SilverJet
11. EuroManx
12. Eos
13. Oasis Hong Kong
14. Max Jet
15. UK International airlines
16. SilverJet
17. FlyMe

All employing British pilots. And that is just off the top of my head. The higher you go the harder you fall, if you don't see that next winter is going to be horrendous you are in for a nasty surprise. For a kick off interest rates are still VERY low, WHEN they go up it is going to bring a whole new level of pain.

I hope that it isn't that bad but prepare for the worst.

Artie Fufkin

9th Jun 2009, 20:28

The key word of my post was "major"

And you counted Silverjet twice.

TheBeak

9th Jun 2009, 20:36

Ha, so I did!

If you add all those minor and in some cases major (XL, Futura) airlines you get a major occurence. The situation is just not good and is really not being helped by ar*eholes paying to fly. But there we go......

TheBeak

9th Jun 2009, 21:08

You most certainly can Foghorn Leghorn......It means the likes of Ryanair can charge F all for flights and so drive all the other airlines prices either down or force them to make large losses. It's not the route cause but it does not help.

clear prop!!!

9th Jun 2009, 21:30

I don't think Ryanair fly any of the routes your list of failed airlines flew.

Most of which went bust for good reasons, some along time ago and with only 1 A/C and crap business models.

You can look back at any sector of industry and quote brands that are no more...that don't mean the world has come to an end!!!...simply that the world has moved on, that is the case now, in the past and forever more.

We are buying more washing up liquid than we did in the 60's, but you won't find a bottle of the then brand leader sqeezy on the shelves now!....life moves on.

That said, this is a bad snapshot in time for the industry, but lets quit the competition to find the best bit of drama!

apruneuk

9th Jun 2009, 21:52

Mild, green Fairy Liquid - it was good for hands that do dishes in the '60s and my wife tells me that it's still kind to her pinkies today! Wouldn't know about that sort of thing Myself, though you understand.

Wee Weasley Welshman

9th Jun 2009, 22:36

Artie, BA looking for 2000 cabin crew to go, a sizeable loss and the top 500 pilots being asked if they would like to go early. And a £3,000,000,000 hole where a pension fund should be.

Virgin - 21 highly experienced pilots about to start 1 years unpaid leave (mortgage nightmare - flipping burgers)... Master Caution lit at the very least.

BMI - Lufthansa so desperate not to increase their stake from 30% to 80% they are willing to crash the company with allegations they are breaching their AOC cash requirement when they are not.

The Spanish, Irish, Portugese and Greek economies are teetering on a Latvian style collapse, Germany is in the worst recession since the War, SAS is loosing money at a rate that even it finds suprising.

Its WALL TO WALL crisis. So. This winter will be a bloodbath. I stand by that. For WANNABES last winter was one a crisis as there wasn't a single proper job. Hence half my dispatchers at work have CPL/IR's...

Remember. UK unemployment will go to the far side of 3 million. It is currently 2.25 million. The painful bit it yet to come. House prices will fall another 20% in real terms. Soon the sea of unemployed wannabe pilots will be swelled by a tidal wave of unemployed redundant pilots.

This will be just like 1992 - 1996 but with huge, brass, ornate, knobs on.

Trust me.

WWW

Thick Blue Line

10th Jun 2009, 14:34

LDV vans and Cheltenham and Glouscester have announced job losses of up to three thousand heads between the two (if I remember the figures right) in the last 48 hours alone. Never mind the other high street (and non-high street) names that have folded or shed jobs over the last few months.

It doesn't take a genius to see the airline industry is going to suffer big style.

The idea of paying out mortgage size sums of money to learn to fly seems like financial suicide at the moment.

Surely the only sensible route is to self improve funded by paid employment - giving time for financial climate to settle down.
It would be irresponsible to get in to debt that you have no guarantee of getting a job to pay back - surely just compounding the current financial crisis?!

quant

10th Jun 2009, 16:44

The number of passengers using Britain's main airports fell by 7.3 per cent in May compared to the same month last year, as the recession and the weakness of sterling continued to hit overseas travel.
BAA, which operates seven UK airports, said the fall in the number of passengers it handled to 11.8 million was in line with the trends it had seen since December, and that while demand remained weak, patterns had not changed materially.
Heathrow reported a smaller drop of 3.9 per cent, which BAA said demonstrated "the resilience and importance of Britain's international hub airport".
It said that Gatwick had seen an improvement in recent trends, falling by 6.5 per cent, as a stronger summer schedule and the Open Skies agreement between the EU and US impacted positively.

The worst performing airport was Stansted, where traffic fell by 18.5 per cent as some airlines continued to cut capacity in response to tough economic conditions.
BAA suffers 7.3% fall in May traffic - Times Online (http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/transport/article6468427.ece)

:sad:

British recession has ended, says influential think-tank NIESR

Think tank data for April suggests Britain could be the first industrialised economy to emerge from recession

The British economy grew in April for the first time in just under a year and continued its expansion in May, according to the influential National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR).
If the trend were confirmed by official data, Britain would become the first major industrialised economy to end recession.
The NIESR, which produces monthly estimates of British gross domestic product growth, said the economy shrank by 0.9 per cent in the three months to May compared with the previous three months, but that the low-point was reached in March.
The think tank said GDP expanded at a monthly rate of 0.2 per cent in April and 0.1 percent in May after entering recession in May last year. “The monthly profile points to March as having been the trough of the depression, with output rising in April and May.
British recession has ended, says influential think-tank NIESR - Times Online (http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article6472439.ece)

:8

Wee Weasley Welshman

10th Jun 2009, 21:26

NIESER are respected by whom and for what? They are a rent a quote bunch of know nothings.

Its like claiming Ed Balls is widely respected in the City.

We have to get from 2.2 to 3.2 million unemployed yet and interest rates at 7%. This crisis hasn't even got into its stride. Green shoots you say? Bollocks.

WWW

Artie Fufkin

10th Jun 2009, 21:51

They are a rent a quote bunch of know nothings.
Maybe they should start posting on this forum, they'd fit in really well

:}

I'll get my coat...

Cows getting bigger

11th Jun 2009, 06:02

At least the quotes here are free. :ok:

Can I carry your bag, Sir? I think I'll leave too.

Wee Weasley Welshman

11th Jun 2009, 07:03

Banter is welcome.

This is the relative price of houses to the FTSE

http://www.moneyweek.com/investments/property/~/media/MoneyWeek/2009/090309/09-03-11-MM3.ashx?w=450&h=298&as=1

Ignoring the 1973 spike houses cost 40 FTSE points. Thats much more than the typical 30 or 20 point price range that has proven so typical over the decades. The chart tell you to sell your house and buy equities.

Lets get the 'unemployment spike' and the 'Interest Rate return to normal rises' out of the way before we give any attention to talk of green shoots of recovery.

WWW

biaeghh

11th Jun 2009, 07:26

I am almost going to agree with WWW, I mean a week or so ago we were told to expect a scorching hot summer and now we are on a flood alert, I ask you, these so called experts are all bankers, so is their level of accuracy...we're doomed i say again we're doomed!!!!!!

quant

11th Jun 2009, 07:45

we're doomed i say again we're doomed!!!!!!*hugs biaeghh* :p

We have about 2 years of pain left before we see any green shoots however good news is welcome :)

Truth be told what concerns me more is the oil price. Yesterday we saw $70/barrel and we're nowhere near a recovery so what happens to the price when the economy starts to kick off again?

I'll go out on a limb and say $200/barrel. I hope i'm wrong :suspect:

veetwo

11th Jun 2009, 09:48

Isn't it the case that no one really knows whats going to happen to the UK economy, and NIESR are just as likely to be wrong as those of you predicting Armageddon? It's surprising that people aren't more cautious about their predictions. Either way there will be some red faced people out there in the coming months.

Cirrus_Clouds

11th Jun 2009, 13:17

All I can say to you lot is "The only way is up!" YouTube - Yazz - The Only Way Is Up [high quality] (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cxlHiyBewSA&feature=related) :ok: lol,

..Sorry couldn't resist, but this tune does hold truth rather than dreaming/thinking of the negativity that this forum seems to love!! :D This thread is about the "upturn" and not the downturn.

SW1

11th Jun 2009, 13:44

Or how about this tosh from the early 90's!!!!

YouTube - D:Ream - Things Can Only Get Better (TOTP) (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_BGoZeiTU4Y)

Things can only get better...not for Mr Brown though, Labour and certainly not D-REAM....

mikehammer

11th Jun 2009, 16:40

Oi that's not tosh is that, saw them in concert back then, they were ok although a man totally outclassed by his beautiful backing singers is rarely a bad thing after enough Guinness!

WWW I still think you are over simplifying, but I like your chart. However it may well tell you to sell your house and buy equities, but if you already had equities, instead of a house it'd tell you the opposite as well. Either way it is telling you something based on anticipated growth (due to current low price of both), which would appear at odds with your general argument.

quant

11th Jun 2009, 17:15

YouTube - Jizz In My Pants (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4pXfHLUlZf4)

Turn it up loud!

Thick Blue Line

12th Jun 2009, 08:56

It’s going to get worse before it gets better, how many jobs lost in this week alone?!
Only growth market this summer is the football transfer market!

And as for our former Brit Popping Prime Minister - he must be laughing his t!ts off right now, bathed in the relief that he got out just in time. And its no small part down to him that we're in this mess.

‘You wanted to PM Gordon . . . ‘

quant

12th Jun 2009, 10:01

The Chancellor today sought to damp down hopes of an early end to the recession, arguing that high oil prices could hold back recovery.
An opinion poll for The Times today suggested that more people were detecting green shoots, with 32 per cent of those questioned predicting that the country’s finances would fare “well” over the next year, up from a low point of 18 per cent in January.
A leading think-tank had also claimed this week that the UK economy may have bottomed out after returning to growth in April and May.
But in an interview with the Financial Times, Alistair Darling said: “I think it is important that people should not become complacent.”

He said that he was sticking to his Budget forecast and expecting the recession to finish towards the end of this year.
The Chancellor said the volatile oil price — which last night reached an eight-month high above $73 a barrel — had “the potential to be a huge problem as far as the recovery is concerned”.

Chancellor says oil price could dampen recovery hopes - Times Online (http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article6484811.ece)

:ooh:

clear prop!!!

12th Jun 2009, 11:31

Nhaaa....he's got it all wrong!!!...He should have consulted WWW...'The price of oil is a sideshow' ;)

flying_shortly

12th Jun 2009, 11:31

Seriously lads, you need to cheer up. Remember in the pooley's Human Factors and Performance book that it says many stressors are only perceived and not actually there....

You're boring the :mad: out of me at this stage... Like a little cult of pessimism and gloom.

Thick Blue Line

12th Jun 2009, 11:58

Stressors perceived and not really there ?

I reckon theres a few thousand people at least would disagree with that at the moment. Must be a lot of sand on this thread for people to stick their heads in to!

quant

12th Jun 2009, 12:36

You're boring the http://static.pprune.org/images/smilies/censored.gif out of me at this stage... Like a little cult of pessimism and gloom.

Well you know what you can do flying shortly? Stop reading this thread!
:p

WELCO

12th Jun 2009, 12:38

I strongly agree with flying_shortly. & I still believe that there are jobs available only for those who can do some serious networking, but not for those who sit back in front of their PC,s and wait for an employer's email or phone call!!

TheBeak

12th Jun 2009, 15:54

Remember in the pooley's Human Factors and Performance book that it says many stressors are only perceived and not actually there....

There's also a lovely bit in HPL about denial, you might want to read it.

flying_shortly

12th Jun 2009, 17:00

Not wanting to argue with you I'll leave you with this Regan quote:

"The only thing we have to fear is fear it'self - nameless, unreasoning, unjustified, terror which paralyzes needed efforts to convert retreat into advance."

coefficientoflift

12th Jun 2009, 17:12

Tried booking tickets from JHB to LHR for next week... ALL airlines booked out from 22nd onwards.... Things can't be that bad!?? :ok:

TheBeak

12th Jun 2009, 17:14

Good then go and spend £70K on a pilot training course - what follows, you deserve - simple.

JB007

12th Jun 2009, 18:23

JNB-London is no different than trying to get a cheap seat from London to Warsaw or Krakow...never going to happen!

Mikehotel152

12th Jun 2009, 19:03

flying shortly - Give up mate.

There are a number of regulars on this thread who bathe in gloom and pessimism. I don't believe they post on the Wannabes forums out of some noble sense of altruism - despite what they may say - but because it comforts them to do so. For them the recession will never end. If any of them were to win the Euromillions jackpot tonight they'd be on here complaining that their newfound wealth was too burdensome! :}

I mean, honestly, how did we cope between 1939 - 1945 with these people in our midst? :confused:

Rant over. Hard hat on. Coat on arm. Running for exit.

TheBeak

12th Jun 2009, 19:20

We coped because of heroes like you MikeHotel152.

I don't believe they post on the Wannabes forums out of some noble sense of altruism - despite what they may say

Now who is the pessimist? Why don't you believe we are offering our advice with the best of intentions? Do as I say, not as I do......

JB007

12th Jun 2009, 20:55

Ahhh...those wannabe rose tinted spectacles or that wannabe sandpit to stick your head in...

Mikehotel152

12th Jun 2009, 21:19

JB007 - I worked hard and got a job. It's not ideal, but it's a job. Some specs, some sandpit.

TheBeak - Thanks. Sarcastic, but probably true. ;) As for your other comment: Anyone with any sense knows the economy is up :mad: creek and training is frought with danger, but all rivers lead to the sea...eventually.

MH152

Munnyspinner

12th Jun 2009, 22:46

Staying off topic for a minute...

A property investor who bought a flat for £175,000 at the height of the housing boom has ended up in a negative equity nightmare after its value nosedived by almost 50 per cent.

What the investor didn't mention was that he bought off plan based on a valuation of £175k which was very probably inflated to ensure that he had 30% equity at day one. The property possibly never actually had a true value of £175k. (true LTV may have been as much as 100%) Valuers get caught up in a game of ever rising value where the sales at inflated asking prices are recored in the land registry. This provides 'evidence' that there are buyers willing to buy at that price. The Buy to let investors that were buying into immediate equity deals were taking a punt on the market rising further so that their notional equit became real equity. When the market bombed their equity evaporated.

Yes, the market has been re based and it is now probably a good time to buy cheap interest rates, cheap property and wide choice. Buy for need not for greed. We are unlikely to see a rapidly escalating housing market for some years to come - until the banks come up with a new wheeze to make easy money!

How does this affect aviation - leisure travel is discretionary expenditure. People tend to judge wealth on their paper worth - even when their cash position is quite weak. If their houses are rising in value they will spend that 'unearned' income. Business travel is seem as extravagant and when jobs need to be culled and businesses are going to the wall it is the frugal managers that thrive.

We are seeing some improved financial news. This could be a dead cat bounce - in which case we are all doomed - or evidence that market confidence is returning. Only hindsight will tell. However, sooner of later we will have stability again and gradually pax will return. Unfortunatley, I think there may be a few casualties before that happens.

Wee Weasley Welshman

12th Jun 2009, 23:28

If the best argument you've got is to accuse people of being pessimistic doom mongers then you're weak and struggling.

In 1992 the 2 quarters of recession under the Major government were over. Over the next 18 months 2 of the 4 largest UK airlines went bust. In 1992 people were probably saying its a great time to train. We'll never know because Danny and Rob hadn't got around to inventing PPRuNe yet.

I have NOTHING to gain from offering my opinion, which is scathingly negative at the moment, about flying training. 3 years ago I was describing how we were living through a 'golden age of wannabeism' as jobs were like apples falling from the tree. CTC I constantly chipped in was the automatic express ride to jet airlineship..

Now its pants. Its not going to change for years. If you recently trained you're screwed.

Its just how it is.

WWW

Mikehotel152

13th Jun 2009, 09:39

If the best argument you've got is to accuse people of being pessimistic doom mongers then you're weak and struggling.

That comment is like shooting the messenger, not because of the message, but because of the language he conveys it in. And in any case, it's not my best argument - as you well know.

You dodged my best argument because it doesn't fit with your inherently negative way of viewing the world around you. It is an inescapable fact that the economy is up :mad: creek. But nevertheless there are jobs out there for those with the luck, talent or perseverence to get them.

I'd be happier if that reality were portrayed on this forum rather than people peddling their hobby economic theories to the masses, whether they guessed it right in the past and can come up with lots of facts and figues to prove they're right about the future.

It's so easy to be negative, safe in the knowledge that over-performance is never criticised. Sometimes reading this thread is akin to the media's over-hyped and fickle treatment of the England Football Team before and after a Tournament.

TheBeak

13th Jun 2009, 10:07

But nevertheless there are jobs out there for those with the luck, talent or perseverence to get them.

I take it you are talking about jobs with the likes of Ryanair. Now I am not saying the people that go there are any less a pilot but the luck you are talking about is the luck of having access to 33000 euros to do the TR + expenses. As for talent, that remains to be gauged on selection process. There are an awful ot of people perservering right now and even at the best of times right now is NOT the time to get recruited by an airline. If you miss out between October- March then you could be missing out for a year unless you have access to large sums of money. FI jobs are out there if you are willing to pay £6000 for a rating and then move your whole life for the sake of maybe 30 hours and £600 a month - which doesn't cover your food or accomodation. If you live nearby then there is your luck again. You also can't pay back your debt.

As for your other comment: Anyone with any sense knows the economy is up http://static.pprune.org/images/smilies/censored.gif creek and training is frought with danger, but all rivers lead to the sea...eventually.

Yes maybe one day but you'll need £2000 a year to service the licence, ratings and medical expenses until you find a job. Not everyone can afford to haemorrhage money like that after spending £50-80K on a CPL/IR. Not when they are paying back their debt.

. CTC I constantly chipped in was the automatic express ride to jet airlineship..

Now its pants. Its not going to change for years. If you recently trained you're screwed.

I couldn't agree more. A shame because they were, at least once, people who bothered to be selected from the start.

KAG

13th Jun 2009, 11:00

I mean, honestly, how did we cope between 1939 - 1945 with these people in our midst?

By loosing millions of lives?

Thick Blue Line

13th Jun 2009, 11:22

It amazes me that this attitude of 'if you want it enough it will happen' stilll exists in the way it does. Is 'really really' wanting to do something some sort of magic wand to just make an airline career appear? Does this work the same way for the lottery?!

Luck? How can you possibly, in all seriousness bank on luck as a factor in getting a job and being able to pay back a mortgage sized loan?

How irresponsible to encourage people to take loans they cant afford to get a qualification which there is no guarantee they will finish/pass and no guarantee will land a job!

TheBeak

13th Jun 2009, 12:00

Exactly, it is about risk management. And there is absolutely NO risk management demonstrated by joining an integrated pilot training course right now having done a one hour trial flight, if that, and putting your parents home or your wife/husband/boyfriend/girlfriends assets on the line just because you want it NOW, NOW, NOW! It is nothing but self indulgence. It isn't clever or calculated. If it was then banks would lend unsecured. It is a dangerous game that WILL wipe out families lives in the next year or two by taking their homes from them and leaving the individual unable to maintain their already useless license. I'd make sure it isn't yours. Or you can believe in the power of positive thought, kiss your lucky charm, go through your OCD-esque rituals and believe you are making it happen. Get real. Of course it will go the other way one day but searching for that 2-3 year of window of opportunity in the next 100 is a complete stab in the dark. Plan for the worst and hope for the best. But expect the worst. And really expect it now. I wouldn't be punting a secured £90K (including interest payments and living expenses by the time you are done) on that. Flying shortly if you really think it is all great why don't you carpe diem and make it 'flying now' - put your money where your mouth is. Don't be an optimist or a pessimist, BE A REALIST. If you have to do it, go modular. One has to take a healthy amount of risk in their lives in order to get ahead but MANAGE IT.