Growing Evidence That The Upturn Is Upon Us

[spinnaker]

clanger32

What we wannabes who are too advanced to back out now really need, from those with experience, is advice as to how best to stay current, where we might hope to find jobs, how to make the contacts which might best serve us when/if an upturn starts. Yet, what you're giving us is a self congratulatory lecture on how stupid we all were to start [in the best period of employment for years].

To be perfectly honest, good advice is going to be difficult as none of us have seen or experienced the current crisis before. What I can say is that anyone who is to far in to back out will need to use every bit of resourcefulness they can muster. Back in the 80's I knew a pilot who literally camped outside a chief pilots office until he got a job. Another pilot did all the research about a company, its directors, the history, its finances, its forward plans, everything. When he went to interview, he was asked what he knew about the company. He gave a 20 min presentation that contained information that even the interviewers didn't know, he got the job.

What I'm saying is, make yourself unique. Interviews are going to be few and far between, and those that are available will be full of low ball questions.

Q. Have you read the papers.
A Yes.
Q. what makes you think we have a job then.

A. Your last quarter performance was impressive in a contracting market and you were top in this sector. I dont believe this was luck, but down to exceptional management skill. This quarters performance is likely to bear that out. I see a need to expand and choose the right people that are positive in the direction this company is going.

No point in talking about you ATPL, everybody has one. Be different.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

I cannot commend enough the words written by Warren Buffet in his 2002 letter to his shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway. Its a startling insight made publicly 6 years ago about the mess we are currently in. That is quite some Jedi level of financial punditry:


http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2002pdf.pdf


.. derivatives severely curtail the ability of regulators to curb leverage and generally get their arms around the risk profiles of banks, insurers and other financial institutions. Similarly, even experienced investors and analysts encounter major problems in analyzing the financial condition of firms that are heavily involved with derivatives contracts. When Charlie and I finish reading the long footnotes detailing the derivatives activities of major banks, the only thing we understand is that we don’t understand how much risk the institution is running.

The derivatives genie is now well out of the bottle, and these instruments will almost certainly multiply in variety and number until some event makes their toxicity clear. Knowledge of how dangerous they are has already permeated the electricity and gas businesses, in which the eruption of major troubles caused the use of derivatives to diminish dramatically. Elsewhere, however, the derivatives business continues to expand unchecked. Central banks and governments have so far found no effective way to control, or even monitor, the risks posed by these contracts.

Charlie and I believe Berkshire should be a fortress of financial strength – for the sake of our owners, creditors, policyholders and employees. We try to be alert to any sort of megacatastrophe risk, and that posture may make us unduly apprehensive about the burgeoning quantities of long-term derivatives contracts and the massive amount of uncollateralized receivables that are growing alongside. In our view, however, derivatives are financial weapons of mass destruction, carrying dangers that, while now latent, are potentially lethal.


Don't have nightmares.

WWW

[clanger32]

Spinnaker,
Thank you. Seriously, THANK you. Probably the most useful and least self congratulatory post on this thread in five or so pages.
And I fully, fully agree with you - both in that advice is difficult when there is no precedent and that when times are hard, you need to make yourself unique - that goes for whatever job you are going for, regardless of whether that's pilot, accountant or commodity broker.

[Re-Heat]

Indeed, Buffet is a legend.

It doesn't show you in a good light if you think this is funny, or deserved by a single one of them.
Nobody thinks that here. People post here to impart knowledge to those unlike yourself who do not have it. While it may appear suicide-worthy to those who have taken the plunge, it may be life-saving to those who have not yet done so.

[clanger32]

Re-heat,
Again, I fully advocate your last paragraph. However my point is that this "discussion" about the how, why and wherefore of what has caused the current situation, pretty much started on page 17 of this 26 page thread. Over a third of this entire thread is now dedicated to re-hashing information which provides no useful help to any wannabe, either in training or thinking of - other than the re-iterated and implied - but rarely directly stated "it would be a bad idea right now"

Would you not agree that perhaps 9 pages is excessive in throwing the life ring to those 'about' to take the plunge. Would you not agree that the number of wannabes who are UN-aware of the situation is likely minimal and as such perhaps undeserving of 9 pages? Would you not agree that perhaps after 9 pages of advice not to go swimming, perhaps [trying to] throwing a life ring to those who jumped in the pool in sunnier climes might not be a more helpful use of time?

[ChrisLKKB]

This thread seems to have become about finding the biggest, deepest most painful cut you can find on any given wannabe and applying an industrial sized handful of salt to it, rubbing it in with some undiluted surgical spirit for good measure.

On the contrary, you aren't the only person on the planet here, there are many others for whom it isn't too late to back out, you'll probably find that most if not everyone posting about the dire situation everyone is facing is to try and impress on people who are considering starting a course that now has to be the worst time in aviation history. Especially as there are still some offering the 'it will be alright by the time you're finished' away with the fairies advice.

Believe it or not there are some people here who don't want to see anymore people blowing their money or getting into massive debt.

What we wannabes who are too advanced to back out now really need, from those with experience, is advice as to how best to stay current, where we might hope to find jobs, how to make the contacts which might best serve us when/if an upturn starts. Yet, what you're giving us is a self congratulatory lecture on how stupid we all were to start [in the best period of employment for years].If it really is too late to back out or postpone, staying current isn't difficult if you have the money, you just need to renew your IR every 5 years (iirc) which will probably require a few hours in the sim to get up to speed and a brush up in the aircraft.

As for the suggestion of 'making yourself different', you'll need to find a company that is recruiting first which is going to be as rare as a rocking horse turd for the next few years at least. Not all 'tricks and stunts' work, the advice of making yourself different is as old as the hills, I suggest more fail than sucseed so think carefully about what you are doing.

In my opinion your best bet now is to risk another few grand and get an instructors rating to keep your hand in, it's probably the cheapest way you'll find to stay airbourne. Before you do that though, ask around your local flying club(s) whether they are in need of instructors and how many hours you are likely to get if you become one bearing in mind if there are lots of instructors looking for positions you may only get offered an hour or so a week, if that, which may not even cover your petrol money.

IMO, right now the only real ray of light will start in the financial sector and from what i'm reading that hasn't even hit rock bottom yet. Once/if that bouces back then everything else will follow although I have no idea at what sort of pace that will be at, after all these are unprecedented times.

[Grass strip basher]

Clanger32 hear where you are coming from...maybe start another thread.... "101 ways to survive the downturn".... might get some practical advice but i imagine it will very much depend on each individuals personal circumstances.

[MIKECR]

clanger32,

People have tried steering the thread in various directions but all the masses want to speak about is economics im afraid.

[ChrisLKKB]

at the moment the upturn which is the central topic of this thread is inextricably linked to current economics :rolleyes:

[MIKECR]

But the irony is that I think most wannabee's who are aspiring to a flying career gave up contributing to or reading this thread long ago. They post questions elsewhere without fear of someone be-littling a genuine question they may have.

[clanger32]

OOohh! look a nail....MikeCR....bet you can't hit it directly on the head....oh, it appears you can!

9 pages of the economics of it....I think, think that message is through to anyone that hadn't already got it!

and as I think has potentially been missed - I'm far from worst hit here, in that I've got no debt to pay for my training and have a good career to fall back on, but I AM in contact with people in a worse situation on a daily basis - and THEY are fed up with the constant doom and gloom....it's not that anyone needs telling.

GSB, good thought, but personally I would think it should be the other way around....move the economics to a thread entitled "why the downturn happened" and leave this one to it's original purpose?

[Aerospace101]

rename it to how to survive the current climate.

good idea...

[ChrisLKKB]

But the irony is that I think most wannabee's who are aspiring to a flying career gave up contributing to or reading this thread long ago. They post questions elsewhere without fear of someone be-littling a genuine question they may have.I'm quite aware of that but it doesn't hurt to discuss the issue, at least it makes information and considered opinion available to anyone who has the sense to look. If you've been following this thread you'll have noticed that it mirrors and sometimes predicts genuine events as they happen and how it applies to wannabees, without sentiment.

Right now there is a lot of doom and gloom for very good reason, hopefully that will change, bear in mind i'm also looking for a ray of light here but we have to be realistic about what is happening. I'm as keen as anyone to read a post which genuinely has a kernel of hope which turns into a positive post which eventually turns this thread around.

Here's a positive suggestion, why not start a thread asking how we will be able to recognise the chain of events leading to the start of the up turn which is inevitably going to have to start with the economy and a prediction of when things will stop getting worse. Then we'll find out how much WWW and our so called economic experts really know.

[Grass strip basher]

The events required to kick start a recovery are already underway... i.e. significant government intervention... things are a little calmer today but confidence is ebbing and flowing.

Already talk about a new government fund to purchase problem assets off bank balance sheets + government recapitalisation of banks. Forced consolidation of banks also already happening (Merrills/Bank of america, Lloyds/HBOS). These things are key building blocks to a recovery.

However the real fundamental problem in consumers have too much debt and are now going to have to start paying that down. That is why this downturn could be so pronounced and long lasting.

Those knocking the economics "theme" in this thread miss the point.... it is these themes that will drive the recovery in airline recruitment you are looking for... ignore them at your peril.... as some are now finding to their cost.

I have to say I struggle to find too much sympathy for those currently 6-12 months from finishing an integrated course.... you should have known the whole training process was a gamble from day 1 and things have been looking shakey since August 2007.... that may sound harsh but you shouldn't need sympathy if you put a proper contingence plan in place when you started your training or be fishing around for advice as to what to do now... you should just be activiating "plan B" e.g. back to your old job for 1-2 years....... take cover.... INCOMING! (GSB ducks under desk and waits to be flamed :oh:)


Hopefully people yet to enter the training game will be able to learn from the mistakes of others...

[spinnaker]

ChrisLKKB

Then we'll find out how much WWW and our so called economic experts really know.

Not very much, I include myself. No one has seen this type of crisis before, I haven't, and no one else has either. We can all make educated stabs at it. The reality is, that even the city experts have got it wrong, they don't know where the bottom is and they don't know what the next move will be. So, for my money, anything anyone says from here on in is guessing, www, me, whoever.

[JB007]

MIKECR, Clanger23

You echo my sentiments on this thread 100%.

Personally, this has just become a "told you so" sort of thing, I couldn't give a toss who Lehman Brothers were, but for those who can, there's a really good thread in Jetblast. (http://www.pprune.org/jet-blast/343217-economy-lehman-brothers.html)

For the rest like Mike and Clanger who sound bright enough to have figured it all out for themselves..."we're in a downturn?! No, really...??" and really want to know "what does it mean for me". These are now the sort of thoughts that should be kicking around here. I've been where you are in 2001, i've been made redundant twice due to airline's collapsing in 1995 and 1999.

If you're in the middle of exams, well, you've just been gifted the prize of time...go back to work if you haven't already, you have all the time in the world to walk in that exam room and know each subject backwards.

If you now have a fATPL and <200 hours, a FI rating will set you back about £6000. It will depend on what the 6k is to you. But in short, you're now gonna need some income for a while. Totally agree with other's thoughts about making "yourself special" - learn the Jet Engine, start reading about Mach Trim, know what Coffin Corner is, every aspect of High Speed Flight, differences of a straight wing/swept wing, the turbo-prop/jet engine efficiency graph - interview stuff basically, by 2012 this should be a walk in the park.

And if one more person tells us to "be afraid"...Jesus wept...

Right, off to the pub for the best pint of Pride on the South Downs..http://www.clicksmilies.com/s1106/ernaehrung/food-smiley-012.gif

[lastdon]

WWW has hit the nail on the head.

Problem is complex investment instruments - DERIVATIVES. From perspective of a wannabe, understanding when this mess will be cleared, is not an easy guess. :ouch:

Trust me, your money is the only thing that is loyal to you in current crisis!! And it says........ let me be with you for some more time!! :E

Good Luck

[MIKECR]

ChrisLKKB,

My post was intented to answer Clanger32's post(500). He is obviouly looking for genuine help as to the 'next move'. I dont think he's particularly interested in amateur economics hence I suggested he should probably look elsewhere in the forum. Most wannabees switched on to the situation are discussing the burning issues elsewhere. i.e. Flybe's recruitment plan's after they convert the embraer guys, Ryanair recruitment for next year, Jet 2 and the likes of's next years's summer schedules, Funding, how to keep an IR current, etc etc etc...

Why the economic situation occured is of no relevance to them. People can sit and around and pontificate all the like.

So back to my point...thats why I suggested Clanger32 would probably benefit from reading other threads rather than this one.

Personally, I find this thread amusing hence I read it.

[JB007]

Problem is complex investment instruments - DERIVATIVES. From perspective of a wannabe, understanding when this mess will be cleared, is not an easy guess.

That's the point - I say again, who gives a toss!!!! The issue is the affect on the aviation and what MIKECR has listed above...

[littco]

WWW..

I found this post of yours from the 18th September 2001.

http://www.pprune.org/professional-pilot-training-includes-ground-studies/5430-crisis.html

Would you say based on the current climate you are more or less worried about training for Wannabes at the moment. You where pretty ademant, and rightly so back then that all students should look at delaying their training for 3-6 months... Looking back you where right and while spinaker thinks we are guessing, I reckon you are best placed to make comments on what will happen in the future.

Me, well I'm not a Wannabe. I've been employed for the last 18 months and was fortunate to start and finish at exactly right time.. This was more luck than Judgement, but even with the number of hours I'm sitting on now, I still have a serious worry about what the future might hold. At the start of the year a good friend of mine spoke to me about starting his training, as he had the money to do it, my advice then was to wait 2-3 years and wait for the up turn, what I didn't realise back then was just how tough it was going to be. Reality is that jobs for the next 2 years are going to be very very hard to come by, Students now are going to have look at instructing instead of a shiney new jets. Question is who they going to instruct? as I think the number of people learning to fly will start to decline, whether it be PPL or 0-heros, simple fact is less people will have disposable income to spend of learning to fly! I think schools will start filling up with students taking instructors course's but no one to instruct.. Other options are going to be working in ops departments or at Airports doing handling etc. As alot of people have mentioned on here, anyone wanting to fly is not only going to have to train but also be very clever and flexible in their approach to getting that first job. I do wish all the best of luck and can only pass on the fact that it's all worth it when you get that first job, all the hard work and sleepness nights are all rewarded when you set those throttles and blast down that 8000ft runway....

[DUXBY]

Just been watching Sky News about the Lloyds TSB HBOS merger. Why is it that we haven't heard a sqeak from that irritating man Gordon Brown whilst the excrement has been flying around for weeks during which Lehman Brothers and two airlines have gone bust laying of thousands of workers.
I wonder if HBOS had announced their woes before Lehman had gone bust if the prime minister would have taken such decisive action to not bail out HBOS.
Low and behold as soon as the merger is announced Gordon Brown is on television taking part of the credit for it claiming that he "looked at the competition laws" and decided that the best course of action was to allow the merger to go ahead. The monolopy this new bank now has makes a mockery of the competition laws.

When asked whether he thought we would go deeper into recession he started to reel of all the countries that had been in negative growth for some time with that irritating patronising smile of his.
Gordon we are not interested in what other countries state of recession is.
I wouldn't like to be writing his conference speach.

Sorry just had to let off some steam.

[Celtic Pilot]

I agree, Not many countries have a prime minister or some kind of leader which is an (supposed to be) in finance.... And yet Gordon says absolutaly nothing...

In one way it is understandable,,, for if he got it wrong, it is the type of the British public to rip him to shreds if he did... MAYBE mmmm??

I find this annoying everything is falling apart and yet there is nothing said about how long??, how bad?? this will get so everyone has some sort of idea....

[cjd_a320]

This lets blame the "Short Seller's" is insane, there is always two sides to a trade and there has been good reason to short a company when the captial to lending ratio was 1.0 to 1.70 ie every £1 pound they had they lent £1.70....

I also hear no one blaming short seller's when it comes to helping crude oil go from $147 to now below $100 :rolleyes:

[clanger32]

I'd only like to point out, I read all the other threads which are of interest to me (although I've yet to find the "I've got an airline which needs 500 new, low hour, pilots from about December onwards and I'll pay them £100k a year each plus bens" thread...if someone would be so good as to point me in the right direction?). And as MikeCR so eloquently points out, there is plenty of useful advice in those. For me however, this thread has become a road crash, something you know you don't want to look at, but can't help in between looking at something useful. It shouldn't be that way.

My point on this thread is exactly as JB007 points out....do I care WHY I'm up the proverbial estuary without a visible means of locomotion? Well, to a limited degree, yes...but nowhere near as much as I care about "where can I find a paddle at short notice?". Fortunately for me, I remembered to pack my handily portable outboard motor, so provided I can get it started, I should be ok....but for anyone without that, the last nine, NINE....that's NINE pages have told no-one anything new. And it is that which I am suggesting might be better placed elsewhere, to allow this to go back to being the little ray of sunshine on an afternoon of TCU and +RA that it should be. Yes, those thinking about it right now need warning of the current situation, but you really think that anyone is now going to trawl through 26+ pages, a third of which are saying the same thing?...they're not....so despite "best endeavours" to warn them off, all you've succeeded in doing is scared them off reading the very info you want them to have.

THAT is what this thread should be about. Not amateur hour in the economics section of the local library.
Mikes earlier point about looking elsewhere for relevant threads is good advice, but should it be necessary? Trust me...everyone I've spoken to who is currently in training is all too - painfully - aware of the current situation...but it seems, ironically, the more experienced posters here who think we desperately need to be told about it AGAIN!

[MIKECR]

Clanger,

Theres some options folks can explore apart from the airlines and biz/corporate. Safety Pilot work is always out there. Not much but it can open doors. I know of a a few companies who utilise fatpl guys. Some of the flying is loggable, some not. PM me if you want details.

[sawaya]

Thank you MikeCR,you summed it up very well.

[ChrisLKKB]

For me however, this thread has become a road crash, something you know you don't want to look at, but can't help in between looking at something useful. It shouldn't be that way.Assuming this thread goes the distance i'm sure you'd be taking a different view when it actually does start discussing an up turn. Eventually you will read something you want to hear.

IMO Grass Strip Basher has brought that first little kernel of hope by saying The events required to kick start a recovery are already underway... i.e. significant government intervention... things are a little calmer today but confidence is ebbing and flowing. Reporting of events seems calmer than it was over the last few days, lets hope it stays that way and the remaining skeletons are kept in the cupboard.

Economics might not be as glamorous as flying but I'd also back GSBs comment Those knocking the economics "theme" in this thread miss the point.... it is these themes that will drive the recovery in airline recruitment you are looking for... ignore them at your peril.... as some are now finding to their cost.

[redsnail]

Clanger and others who want advice as to how to survive the next couple of years.

As with any life form on the planet it's "Survival of the fittest" or be flexible.
There's a couple of dos and don'ts, some applicable, some impossible.

* Don't p!ss off your instructors or colleagues. No one likes a smart arse.
I've just given two recommendations to friends from ATPL ground school. Why? Because they were social enough to have a drink & a laugh with plus they did well at the exams. (both have held flying jobs but now out of work)

I've survived on colleagues recommendations as well. It doesn't matter what you do, do it well. Aviation is a ridiculously small world.

* Network. Not unlike the above. It's a lot easier these days with Facebook etc. Don't be too snooty with meeting up for a drink in the aero club etc. Also, before sounding off about what a bloody legend you are, know your audience. No one minds being asked a question or two, but be aware of thrusting your CV into the hands of the jet jockey that's having a break/meeting up with friends. Timing is every thing.


* Seek opportunities. Take ground jobs. Find FBOs and learn the environment. FBOs that are handling bizjets etc are a smart move.
I took a night ops job because no one else would. 6 months later, I'm flying.
Washing aircraft impressed another boss, it got me my big start... :)

* Instructor ratings are useful. You can translate them into being a line trainer in the future etc. Also, gets you in the environment, gaining hours and experience. If you can instruct on a field that also has bizjet traffic, useful.

* computing skills, language skills, customer relation skills. Never wasted.

* engineering skills. Very valuable. (Not a degree, but spannering skills!)

* if you can, move. Whether it be 300 miles or 3,000 miles. Do so. Go and seek those jobs that are there. Bush flying in Africa. Tourist flying in the Caribbean, fish spotting in the North Sea. Go for it.

* Take the first solid job offer. 500 hours in a king air is better than 12 months in a jet hold pool....

* While you have to keep an eye on your exam validity, if you can, delay your IR until there's signs that economy has stopped free falling.

Good luck.

[G SXTY]

Guys, I would recommend printing and framing Reddo's advice. I couldn't have put it better myself. :ok:

[rogerg]

I got my first job as I said I would wash and polish the company Kingair (LJ124) that led to 20000hrs and a widebody capt.

[redsnail]

Strewth Rog, after washing and polishing the king air, you had to wash and polish the 20,000 hour wide body captain as well? :ooh: :D

[G-SPOTs Lost]

Bloody 'ell rog - that 90's older than me must be a late 60's model :eek::eek:

[JB007]

Let's be honest, what's more important is Katie and Peter: The Next Chapter starts in half an hour!!!!!!

(Anyone else noticed how serious this thread is during business hours then just get's silly late at night..??)

[redsnail]

Sorry JB :)

How to monitor the situation.

* Read Flight International. Learn to interpret the job ads. Look for engineering, sim instructors, sim tech jobs. Why? means expansion.

* Understand that the CAA in the UK only permits a certain percentage of inexperienced/low houred crew in the mix. Therefore, if you hear of company X hiring a lot of low houred guys recently, by all means try your luck but you might be disappointed. So, if you know airline Y has taken on low houred pilots in the past but have only recruited experienced guys, send in a CV.

* Take the time to find out who the people are you're writing to. Use spell checker. Don't forget to change all the names in the letter....Sending a wonderful CV to bmi however forgetting to remove British Airways in the covering letter loses a lot of points...

* Be flexible. The harder you work the luckier you get.

Good luck.

[rogerg]

Strewth Rog, after washing and polishing the king air, you had to wash and polish the 20,000 hour wide body captain as well? http://static.pprune.org/images/smilies/icon25.gif :D


Ha de Ha


Your quite right, it was 60s model

[ChrisLKKB]

In the US i've seen several instructors get jobs because an airline employee has come into the school looking for pilots on the off chance, most were freight jobs or scenic flights but one picked up a nice corporate job on a saberliner and another friend of mine got a job with North West that way. I've picked up ferry flights and ad hoc delivery freight/delivery flights because I was hanging out at the airport.

It does happen in the UK although i've never been quite so lucky personally although i've got lots of freebies which is all hours in the book.

Never turn down any job, you never know what it will lead too and it builds contacts. I've seen more than one wannabee turn down a job because they thought it was below them or it didn't pay enough only to later regret it later. If someone is willing to pay you to fly that's still better than paying for it yourself.

[ix_touring]

A stunned silence....

It’s been 24 hours since the last finance related post... guess no one was expecting today’s events!

iX

[ChrisLKKB]

Definately good news, at least it's stopped the rot. Now to see who's going to be right, the pessimists who are saying the banking system is a complete shambles and will inevitably implode or the optimists who are saying things should start to get better next year. I still reckon somewhere inbetween to two and we wont see any significant recruitment for 3 years+.

[Lurking123]

Please let us not get carried away with one 'good' day on the markets. There is something seriously broken here and a $***BN payout by the national banks will not resolve that.

I agree, a less depressing day, but please don't be suckered into thinking that the light at the end of the tunnel has suddenly been switched on.

[pipertommy]

And the opposite could also be true. When there is a bad day its the end of the world?

[clear prop!!!]

Well,… a bit of positive news today, lets hope it keeps going in the right direction.

It kind of shows just where the armchair economists on this site are so wrong, including the adamant claims that oil would be at $200 by now!!

Yes, a lot of what WWW and his fan club have been subscribing to is,…on the face of it, absolutely logical and understandable, if,… we were in a free fall situation where governments were to allow the World’s economy to go into freefall and melt down.

That could never be allowed to happen, and governments and financial leaders have to do something to rescue the situation and protect their arses no matter how inept the may be!

There will indeed be an upturn, but I suspect that no-one here is qualified to say what the future holds and when, let's just wait and see.

The advice to slow down training is however sound. Easier to slow down then speed up if things get better than to find yourself qualified in a market with no potential for employment.

[ChrisLKKB]

It kind of shows just where the armchair economists on this site are so wrong, including the adamant claims that oil would be at $200 by now!! Yes, a lot of what WWW and his fan club have been subscribing to is,…on the face of it, absolutely logical and understandable, if,… we were in a free fall situation where governments were to allow the World’s economy to go into freefall and melt down.Don't get too carried away, we are still down on the start of the week and things were bad enough on Friday. If things don't get any worse we've still got a long way to go before there is a recovery. Inflation has been increasing, unemployment figures are prediced to increase, house prices are predicted to fall further and there are other financial institutions which are looking shaky.

You can get a fairly unsensationalised view of how things are from the FT on line which is free of charge (just delete the contents your cookies folder before going onto the site each time other wise you will be limited to 3 articles).

The good news is the sun is shining this week end and it looks like a great day to be flying :ok:

[Grass strip basher]

Interesting events... leaves me scratching my head to see where the Fed etc is going to get the c$1trn they may need to dig themselves out of this mess.... :oh:

[ChrisLKKB]

dunno but some people are saying it could turn a profit for the FED in the long term.

[spinnaker]

ChrisLKKB

I find that a hard one. No one really knows the full extent of the debt or how risky it is. To say the fed could make on it, imho is highly speculative as we don't even know how the fed plan will work as yet.

Grass strip basher

I don't think the fed will actually put cash into the system, but more likely to draw up a set of guarantees in case of defaults. I think they have already been doing this without much success, so they may want direct control of the 'toxic' debts in exchange for their support. I do agree it is a head scratcher.

The record increase in the FTSE on Friday may be a mixed blessing, the correction may have been overcooked. I also take it as an indicator of how deep the UK financial sector is involved with high risk investments. Still, good news to see the FTSE going back up.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Oooh Whoopee - the FTSE is back to 5300. A full thousand points down on where I shorted it just 13 weeks ago. I'd keep the champagne corked if I were you.

Just as in 1980 we will eventually see that even the Fed runs out of the ability to borrow money. By committing trillions of tax payer dollars, the plan will save commercial and investment banks from certain bankruptcy. The losses baked into the mortgage products that the Fed will now buy, which Wall Street has been reluctant to even estimate, will now be borne wholly by taxpayers. Therefore the global mass exodus from the U.S. dollar and Treasury debt is about to begin.

Your savings will be safe. Ravaged by eye watering inflation. But safe.



Anyway.



The forum can afford one thread discussing the macroeconomic turbulence being experienced by Western world. If it doesn't interest you or you think it doesn't help you then - radical idea - don't read it. Go start your own thread on 100 Top Tips To Get A First Job with my absolute blessing.

There is only one tip that you really needed and that was the one I was giving over a year ago. Delay training, avoid debt, time your entry to the job market based on a major 1991 recession.

I have PM's from people thanking me because they did follow this advice. Which is nice. I have comments here asking me to shut up because I'm not offering advice to people who ignored my earlier advice..

Well I've got no advice to offer. There are no jobs. Alitalia is about to dump THOUSANDS of jet pilots onto the EU pilot market which is already totally stagnant. Nobody is hiring and nobody is going to be hiring.

You either can manage your debt and keep your license alive and wait for X years or you write off your investment and forget your dream.

That's the bottom line.


Sorry,

WWW

[rogerg]

I think it will all turn out OK. Might take a few years though, and I expect I know as much about it as WWW. (http://www.w)

[preduk]

I agree with WWW.

A couple of weeks ago I thought WWW was talking a load of :mad: about the markets. I wasn't expecting it to get this bad, the one day I wake up and Zoom is gone, then a few local travel agents go then XL and now a couple of European airlines are going.

As a wanna be who was hoping to start the training full time I've decided to just hour build and enjoy the flying for the time being until the market calms a bit, then I can start look to invest money into the training.

[spinnaker]

preduk,

Your last sentence, hits the spot for me.

[ChrisLKKB]

I find that a hard one. No one really knows the full extent of the debt or how risky it is. To say the fed could make on it, imho is highly speculative as we don't even know how the fed plan will work as yet.
I can't recall which paper the article was in but it was one of the broadsheets (not that that means much these days). The way it was written certainly seemed plausible though. The premiss was if Cletus and Mary-Lou et al defaulted on their loans the FED would end up with the deeds to the properties which in the long term would eventually increase in value and could be sold in bundles to speculators for a profit. In theory the FED should be able to afford to tie up large sums of money for longer periods of time than investment banks.

The record increase in the FTSE on Friday may be a mixed blessing, the correction may have been overcooked. I also take it as an indicator of how deep the UK financial sector is involved with high risk investments. Still, good news to see the FTSE going back up.

I know this isn't directed to me but I don't have much confidence in the stock market any more, imo it shouldn't need constant intervention from governments, at some point they are going run out of ways to stop it crashing, maybe it's reached that point already, may be it will happen next year, maybe it wont even happen in my life time. I think it needs some sort of regulation to control the level of risk taking that goes on and i'd definitely like to see the rewards of risk taking cut considerably. Greed isn't good imo it just makes people miserable.

Your savings will be safe. Ravaged by eye watering inflation. But safe.

Baring things like mortgage repayments, energy prices, fuel and public transport I don't think we've seen a big rise in the cost of living over the past 15-20 years. Supermarkets have driven the cost of food down, air travel is cheaper, package holidays seem about the same, the basic model cars haven't gone up that much and neither has the cost of parts (if anything they've gone down). TV's, Stereos, DVDs (taken as a modern equivalent of the old VCR), white goods and (unbranded) clothing have come down in price. It's mainly the cost of fuel and housing that's been the killer imo. (oh and peoples expectations don't help either, stuff that was considered a luxury 20-30 years ago is often considered to be a necessity now). I think we can withstand a a certain amount of inflation.

The forum can afford one thread discussing the macroeconomic turbulence being experienced by Western world. If it doesn't interest you or you think it doesn't help you then - radical idea - don't read it. Go start your own thread on 100 Top Tips To Get A First Job with my absolute blessing.

:D After all, this a thread about the upturn in the aviation industry which is ultimately reliant on the up turn in the economy, in the absence of any signs of upturn in the aviation industry, why shouldn't we be discussing the economy ? Anyway, it seems like the girls have had their paddies now, stomped their feet and walked off to discuss what they consider to be more important matters. (didn't some airlines used to ask questions on current economics or at least questions linked to economics in the interview at one time ?)

Personally I think WWWs predictions are completely rational and worryingly accurate, I wish i'd had his advice several years ago+. It's clear to me who here will go the distance and who will burn out in the absense of any recruitment over the next few years and I wish them the best of luck!.

[spinnaker]

1. I agree, that given your example, the fed could make money and it would be certainly long term. However, I assume that would then involve hard cash. When that happens on a too large a scale, the effectiveness of a central bank diminishes to a dangerous level, unless they were to create more 'new money' from this 'old debt' and government raises money from tax. We shall see during the next week.

2. The stock market is a difficult one. In normal circumstances it works fine as a free market, but now is not normal, and the city, London/New York now has a track record of getting it wrong, or have they? Last year I was looking at where money was going as the sub prime was disappearing down the tubes, fund managers were looking to make up their losses. Well, some of that money went on oil speculation, we saw the effect of that. At the same time the sub prime was going bad, new investments were being drawn up by some of the biggest players in the game and some of these investments were being hatched outside of the regulated banking system, these investments are based upon debt and risk, and this is where most of the money has been going. There was talk of big involvement from the UK, but because it is done in the unregulated world of finance, its almost impossible to tell who and how much is involved. This might explain the recent run on HBOS shares. I saw one report on BBC News 24 that said that there was no untoward increase in the interest in short selling for HBOS. If that's the case, why the run on a well financed bank? What was being talked about between fund managers and brokers? Maybe the city did get it right. If they did, then that exposure still exists and further intervention will be necessary.

Your words "Greed isn't good imo it just makes people miserable." ....and that is a good summary of what I have just written. Its about greed.

[chrisbl]

WWW makes sense and always had. Taking a view based on one day is just nuts. Look at the trend, it is bad. There will be days that flatter to decieve.

Mortgage rates are already going up agin and will likely continue to be higher.

For lenders the rquirement will be about high quality lending. That will be the price the regulators and governments will require. No more flaky lending.

So out go sub prime mortgages, out will go lending for small business start ups out will go lending to fund career development in oversubscribed industries. (Unless back by parents too daft to know better and they put the family home on the line)

[Re-Heat]

Yes, a lot of what WWW and his fan club have been subscribing to is,…on the face of it, absolutely logical and understandable, if,… we were in a free fall situation where governments were to allow the World’s economy to go into freefall and melt down.
Do you believe the government has unlimited funds? No.

As I have believed for a long while, mortgage rate restting will cause many more months of turmoil, and the AIG situation was simply one step in finding the bottom of the market (and finding out exactly who the suckers were who bought the toxic mortgage securities from the banks in the first place).

As in 1988-1992, when the US government was unable to bail out some banks such as Drexel, but worked through toxic assets in the Resolution Trust Corp (Resolution Trust Corporation - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Resolution_Trust_Corporation)), this correction and recession will be painful - but hopefully not too long.

Nobody is predicting the permanent meltdown of the financial system - there are many proven strategies that have not so far melted down, but that were proved to the limit in previous recessions. This again shall be the same, as sub-prime mortgages will find their natural limit, resurrect, and aid the economy's growth.

As for wannabes, the advice - that has been consistent here - is to wait, and have a backup plan in place. You won't get hired in many places this year or next, but as reddo says, persistence will pay off, and there is no point in rushing through an expensive course to find that what we have said here holds true.

[Grass strip basher]

Not sure how many pilots they employ (hundreds I would have thought) but they look (finally after years of losses) to be going the way of XL..... this is from Reuters

ROME, Sept 21 (Reuters) - Alitalia's <AZPIa.MI> special
administrator will make a last-ditch attempt to sell Italy's
loss-making national airline on Monday by public tender before
calling in the liquidators after a failed rescue bid.
Alitalia faces liquidation in a matter of days after a plan
to rescue the carrier by Italian investors collapsed last week
when unions refused to accept its conditions. Flights continued
as normal on the weekend but could be grounded in a week's time.
With Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, who made an election
promise to rescue the airline, acknowledging no foreign airline
was about to step in and that Alitalia could be doomed to
bankruptcy, the auction appears a mere formality.
"We will proceed with a public request (for offers)," the
special administrator, Augusto Fantozzi, told Il Messagero daily
in comments published on Sunday. "It will formalise what I have
been doing -- without any results so far despite all my efforts
-- regarding the main assets."
Suffering from the high fuel prices and an economic downturn
that have hit the airline sector globally, Alitalia has been on
the brink of collapse for years as political interference and
labour unrest bled it of cash and caused it to pile up debt.

NO OFFERS
Berlusconi opposed the previous centre-left government's bid
to sell the state's 49.9 percent stake, including an offer from
Air France-KLM <AIRF.PA>, saying it must stay in Italian hands.
The media mogul returned to power in May promising to rescue
it and used his influence to rally 16 business groups in the CAI
consortium. But CAI withdrew its offer last week after pilots
and cabin crew refused to accept job cuts and new contracts.
The government rules out further state aid or, as some
leftists propose, the renationalisation of Alitalia. Italy is
already in trouble with the European Commission over a 300
million euro ($435.2 million) loan to keep the airline flying.
"There is no possibility of another rescue bid so it could
be that our Alitalia is heading towards bankruptcy procedures,"
Berlusconi said on Saturday.
Fantozzi meets civil aviation authorities on Monday to see
if Alitalia can retain its operating licence, and he must then
decide on announcing the public tender for Alitalia's assets.
The authority says that if there is no feasible rescue plan,
Alitalia's planes will be grounded within a week to 10 days.
Fantozzi reiterated he that he had received no offers for
the airline operation, only some interest in heavy maintenance,
cargo, handling and catering units and the call centre.
He had again contacted Air France <AIRF.PA>, Lufthansa
<LHAG.DE> and British Airways <BAY.L> about buying Alitalia or
its assets, but said: "Nobody has stepped forward."
Transport Minister Altero Matteoli made it clear that unless
unions changed their minds about CAI's conditions, "in a few
days we will ground Alitalia's planes as the law requires".

:{:sad:

[neilski]

Unfortunately I was studying for an MA in Economics when I should have been learning to fly and I hate to tell you guys the banking system and global finance is fundamentaly screwed. Don't worry though it doesn't need fixed; all we need is for bankers and investment types to come up with a new way of disguising risk and hiding losses and confidence will be restored for another 10 years or so.

Now with regards to flying; I reckon it will take me about 2 1/2 to 3 years to get my FATPL (modular route) and by then Airlines should be gagging for 34 year olds with a bit of life experience and not many hours???

What do you reckon guys am I mad or is this plan so crazy it might just work?

[ChrisLKKB]

See the perpetual Am I Too Old thread but fwiw imo at 34 you'll be fine. I have a mate who was employed at 41 not too long ago. Good luck.

[PosClimb]

What do you reckon guys am I mad or is this plan so crazy it might just work?You're better off examining the entrails of slaughtered animals or communing with the spirit world to foresee the answer to where the industry will be in three years time.

No one knows. It's all a big risk and a gamble.

I still think oil prices in the long term are going to shoot right back up once the economy recovers. I think oil prices are the wild card.

[Aerospace101]

OIL PRICE SOARS BY $22 to $126.5. -sky news

oh dear!

[kj990]

$22?

I thought it was $25! We were told the crash was cancelled and all was coming good.......doh.

You can't stick 3/4 trillion dollars on the books and not trash the currency surely?

Strap in it's going to be a bigeeeee......

[Deano777]

That price is the future price, oil is currently at $108 per barrel :ugh:

Crude Oil Price Forecast (http://www.oil-price.net)

[grob.1]

No it' not..... Commodities - Latest Trading Prices and Data from CNNMoney.com (http://money.cnn.com/data/commodities/)

[Re-Heat]

Depends what he was looking at - there are many different grades and types of crude oil - from WTI and Brent, to heavy Venezuelan crudes:

Bloomberg.com: Energy Prices (http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/commodities/energyprices.html)

[nich-av]

Welcome to wave 2.

See what happens when the government intervenes?
This is purely political folks.

Investors pull out of shares, go back into commodities, oil prices rise, making more investors pull out of shares and go back into oil, etc...

Did the government just help the economy or trash it?
What they did is unforgivable.

At this point, the future becomes unpredictable because unpredicted variables are way too important, way out of the scope of any error margin. Because no one in this world would have imagined what happened in the last weeks (sudden collapse of Lehman, sudden leaning at AIG) no one knows what will happen from now on. These events had no warning signs, so I think this is manipulated.

At this point it's impossible to predict what will happen over the next months. When the government comes up with things like this in an economy in recovery, there's nothing to do...

We don't know yet how bad it's going to be but the measures taken by the US government are extreme and the response of investors will be extreme.

If governments help banks, they will have no reasons not to help airlines if it gets really bad.

What an election year...

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Oil had the biggest one day gain in history. Blink. 16% off the BA share price.


These are dangerous and uncharted waters. People who think a trillion dollar bailout borrowed from the next 40 years taxes is a good thing are people who scare me. Having lived beyond out means we (government) are prepared to pass the bill onto the unborn. Nice.

Honestly chaps the Sept11th fallout was a small flash in the pan event compared to the current crisis. Unfortunately for Wannabes the Sept11th fallout was 3 years of misery.

I believe there are around 600 low houred pilots currently or recently on the Integrated route who will be in the UK job market in 2009 with <zero jobs available. Modular on top of that.



To join them just write some cheques.



WWW

[Lurking123]

WWW, you just can't resist it, can you? Three paragraphs of good, sound, well-judged analysis and then an unnecessary, patronising one liner at the end. :ugh:

[heli_port]

(09-22) 18:18 PDT -- The price of oil jumped $16.37 to $120.92 per barrel Monday, its biggest single-day gain ever, as investors spooked by the financial crisis sought a safe place to put their money.

At one point during Monday's wild trading session, the price of crude sold on the New York Mercantile Exchange soared as high as $130 per barrel, a whopping 24 percent increase from Friday's closing price.

Oil had been sliding since reaching its all-time high of $145.29 in July, and that decrease brought drivers some relief from this summer's punishing gasoline prices, which soared above $4 per gallon. But since bottoming out last Tuesday at $91.15 per barrel, oil's price has risen 32 percent.


Oil prices jump, partly from 'short squeeze' (http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/09/23/BUNT132PRD.DTL)

I'm making money again http://img2.mysmiley.net/imgs/smile/fighting/fighting0030.gif (http://www.mysmiley.net/free-ashamed-smileys.php)

[spinnaker]

Looking at the tickers this morning brings no cheer, $700 billion dollars from the feds last week lasted one day. Worryingly, money has moved into commodities (oil mainly.) BoE put money in this morning, I can see little effect so far, stormy times for the HBOS/LTSB takeover looming, and Gordon McGoon is still the PM.

Looks like Heli_port is happy with oil though. I have a full tank of diesel in my car, does that count?

[ChrisLKKB]

Ah well, at least some aren't quite so gloomy,
(from the Times today,)
some analysts have predicted that if the Paulson plan succeeds, the global economy could recover more quickly than expected.It looks like it's going to take sometime for the details to be bickered over with every tom, dick and harry wanting to have their say in it, hopefully they wont micromanage what ever effectiveness it has out of it.

Looks like Heli_port is happy with oil though. I have a full tank of diesel in my car, does that count?

Only if you don't drive anywhere :}

btw I have some premium bonds which turn out to be a pretty poor investment (although they haven't devalued yet). In three years time if I play my cards right I should be able to get them to pay for my IR and school (again :*)....now what shares or commodities do I buy to make my first killing [insert greedy icon rubbing hands together] (or is it safer under the matress? :ugh:

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Lurking 123, how does:

To join them just write some cheques.


Patronise you exactly?


I won't offer investment advice other than to point out that with the money printing presses running at emergency overload your first task will be simply to keep pace with the massive inflation they are sowing.

I note today that SkyEurope airlines is seeking someone with £30m to 'invest'..


WWW

[ChrisLKKB]

I'm writting the cheque as soon as i've hit submit (it might bounce a little bit though), i'm not holding out any hope that it will buy me a rh seat job though :}

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

** Breaking News **

Ryanair grounds 14 planes at Stansted

Ryanair, the cut-price Irish airline, is to ground 14 aircraft at Stansted airport this winter as it grapples with fuel costs and weakening consumer demand.

The cut adds to the reduction of 12 aircraft from the airline's fleet at Stansted announced in July, bringing the total number of planes in operation to 14, down from 40 earlier this year...



Ryanair grounds 14 planes at Stansted - Times Online (http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/transport/article4809459.ece)




40 down to 14. MOL is calling the market and he's saying Armageddon.

:(


WWW

[C-141Starlifter]

WWW,

where did you get the info on Sky? Is it written somewhere?

thanks.
Lifter

[Aerospace101]

Looks like Ryanair have bitten off more than they can chew. Greedy :mad:

They are lucky that boeing has its strike and so all their new aircraft arent arriving as quick.

[ChrisLKKB]

So maybe MOL isn't as clever as he'd like to think he is, my question is, has Ryanair's sucsess been down to a well thought out buisness model or just good luck and sheer belligerence ?

[Re-Heat]

Ref SkyEurope

euro adhoc: The European Investor Relations Service (http://ots.euroadhoc.com/irmeldung.php?schluessel=OTA_20080918_OTA0002&ag=OTA)

Note the Rothschild comment at the bottom

[Rhodes13]

WWW lets not get ahead of ourselves I would suggest to you its 14 aircraft in total. And to be honest they wont be grounded they will be shipped off to the new bases.

ChrisLKKB 20 years of luck is an awful long run! Its amazing that we have the doom merchants here already after an aircraft is proactively reacting to the markets.

Its not a good time to train but lets not start saying that the writing is on the wall for RYR.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

I'm not writing off Ryanair. They are responding to the market as I see it and doubtless will be as successful in doing so as they have been in the past.

What new bases are you talking about? They're closing at least seven over the winter I thought. The point is merely to illutrate to Wannabes that there are going to be less aircraft flying this winter even without bankruptcy.

WWW

[ix_touring]

Reasons to be cheerfull...

$1.5 Billion for 110 new Lear jets in Europe: Jet Republic (http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/transport/article4812758.ece)

iX
(I'll leave the analysis for others :ok: )

[sawaya]

WWW i think i had mentioned about this new start up months ago in the down turn thread,the response i got was being slugged off by everyone including you,i was called a day dreamer,i could not mention the name of the company because of the sensitivity of the issue,Now what do you have to say?

[Aerospace101]

Quick, lets all get in massive debt and jump on the corporate bandwagon and get jobs!! :ugh:

[EZYramper]

The situation in the UK, US and Europe is pretty awful at the moment, but what are worldwide conditions like?

For fATPL's who are willing to relocate to almost anywhere in the world is the situation much better?


cheers

[ChrisLKKB]

One significant problem is that the market has been flooded with hundreds of pilots with all levels of experience from low time FOs to senior Captains with many thousands of hours. Experienced FOs with several type ratings on their licence who are willing to travel are struggling to find employment. It's an employers market at the moment and low hour fATPL pilots without type ratings are unlikely to be at the top of their lists of pilots being targeted.

[nich-av]

You really hold people for dumb don't you? I'm telling you, don't transfer your daily job "I am captain and a god" into writing to me.
I'm confident you have not missed an opportunity to read every single of my posts.

To tell you the truth, I am not making a penny from my daily job. I am just helping pilots within my capabilities and I'm doing that by providing world's cheapest aircraft rental.
Any marginal earnings of our operation goes into a pot, a pot that one day in the near future will help improve chances for modular student pilots (because integrated are either stupid or rich) to climb up the ladder more easily.

You are so wrong not to support us.

All you are doing with your misery-shedding is to give airlines an opportunity to take more advantage of student pilots. Isn't it enough that they have to pay for their TR, now you want to help airlines save the money on line training by making the case for them?

Instead, encourage student pilots to flow through the bizjet market.
Plenty of opportunities there, and experienced A320/B737 wouldn't even care to think about it. If we can get modular ab-initio to understand that a bizjet job is way better than a stupid A-B-A-C-A job on A320/B737, you bet they will flow into the bizjet market and airlines will start paying for TR's again. Also, as they will recruit among bizjet pilots instead of ab-initio's, the market will have continuous recycling and a more logical evolution than to jump a 200 hours TT kid on the RHS.

Don't waist this opportunity to help transform the market into a fair one because that's exactly what you are doing. Don't "warn" starters who will not get their ticket before 3 years from now. Encourage people who already have their ticket to head to Africa or take up any bizjet job.

Pump optimism into starters to motivate them and help them find the right path. If you are not wasting all this time on the forum because you have a heart for student pilots and want to help them (because it is not helping them at all), then I goddamn hope you get a flock of birds in both engines during the next rotation.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Sawaya:

So some Russian money from an Austrian bank is being poured into a NetJets splinter group fronted by Johnny Breeze. I wish them the best of luck and admire their bravery but I wouldn't advise basing any career planning on them.

Oh, and only 25 of those 110 orders are firm - the rest is just a number on the back of a fag packet.


Still, it IS good news. Well done.

WWW

[G-SPOTs Lost]

Also I can fairly easily say that newbie fATPLs are going to get nowhere near a Lear 60 so not particularly good news.

There is not a Business Jet out there that needs more respect and careful handling than this aircraft. Insurance companies just would not wear it, one of their pre requisites would probably be time on a "junior" lear

(The ones that only do 8,000 fpm and 25deg pitch up whilst accelerating)

[heli_port]

more evidence of the upturn is upon us:


Ryanair, the cut-price Irish airline, is to ground 14 aircraft at Stansted airport this winter as it grapples with fuel costs and weakening consumer demand.

“We’re heading into recession and people are becoming much more price sensitive. Our experience of recession is that fares generally fall,” Mr Millar said.


Ryanair grounds 14 planes at Stansted - Times Online (http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/transport/article4809459.ece)

[biaeghh]

Very impressed with some of the more concerned contributors burning the midnight oil trying to save the planet!!

[Aerospace101]

Just saw jet republic on bbc news tv; Its 11 orders, and theyre not launching until october next year apparently....

[ix_touring]

G-SPOT, while its unlikely they will take on any new fATPLs for their little venture, they will help to "mop up" some of the XL/Zoom crew. Thus not quite the level of doom and gloom some suggest following these folds.

nb, via wikipedia, fleet sizes were:

XL - 18 a/c
Zoom - 5 a/c

JR reports it will have 4 a/c by year end and then take one every 4 weeks.

iX

[ix_touring]

There is often talk of spotting the end of a down turn when savvy investors start buying bargain (bottom dollar) assets...

If that's the case then this is interesting:

Buffet buys into Goldman Sachs (http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/banking_and_finance/article4818514.ece)

iX

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Ireland now officially in recession.


WWW

[ix_touring]

Ireland now officially in recession.


Glad they don't have any impact on flying jobs !!!

... oh, wait... bugger!

On a philosophical point:

Does anyone else think the definition of recession should be any rate of growth in a period of time that is lower than the rate of inflation in that period?

iX

[pipertommy]

Lets just get to the bottom!! Then we can start to come up again.

[Celtic Pilot]

Everywhere is in recession, we are just one of the first ones to put our hands up and take it on the face....

Exactly, once youve hit the bottom of the barrel, well there only one way you can go from there!!!!

[ReallyAnnoyed]

Celtic Pilot, is that through the bottom of the barrel? :}

[Robthestudent]

I wish my stomach would go into recession
:ugh:

[nich-av]

So, WWW, what do you think?

Wasn't I right to tell you that we'd get to see who was specultaing on oil?
Exactly. It looks like the huge banking institutions are who we were looking for.

Now they need a bail-out worth 700 billions.
But wait a minute... private investors want to stay out out of fear of losin ghtier money. So why would the government gamble the taxpayer's money?

The population of the US is about 300 million.
The 700 billion dollar bail-out comes down to 2500$ per person.
Out of the 300 million us citizens, let's suppose 20% are paying back home loans and 5% are undergoing foreclosure.
So why is best to save Wall Street when you can save Main Street with that kind of money?

What a corrupt economy...

[ali1986]

Just out of interest what is the state of play with other countries and airlines. Like are they in the same boat as us or are they experiencing better times?

Ali

[MIKECR]

If you read the recruitment pages of Flightglobal you'll get a feel for where the job market is - Middle East, Far East and Africa. Mostly experiencd crews they seem to be looking for. I hear through the grapevine that a load of the XL guys are off to the Gulf as nothing doing back here in the UK.

[doctordoom]

Who gives a flying f**K, we are all in the same boat. It will end sometime nobody knows when so there is no point going on speculating when its all going to end or how much worse its going to get. You worry you die, you dont worry you still die so why worry. People are still going to fly and go on holidays, you guys are talking like its the end of the world it aint doing anybody any good. Man the f**K up people it will be over when its over :ok:

[Celtic Pilot]

one has to agree with who they call the 'doc'!!!!

:D

[Grass strip basher]

Yeah man shut the F'up all those pilots at XL with 2 kids to feed and a mortgage. Just get over it... who cares if you are out of a job for a year or two, lose your house etc.... live in the real world where nothing matters man... it will all end someday :ugh::ugh::yuk:

few too many down the local last night Dr? :=

[heli_port]

The fall in house prices has accelerated in England and Wales, according to the Land Registry.

Its latest report shows that prices fell by 1.9% in August, taking the annual rate of price deflation to 4.6%. The figures mean that the average property now costs £174,493; £8,320 less than a year ago, with £3,871 of that drop occurring last month.


BBC NEWS | Business | House price falls 'accelerating' (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7637491.stm)

[Re-Heat]

Who gives a flying f**K, we are all in the same boat. It will end sometime nobody knows when so there is no point going on speculating when its all going to end or how much worse its going to get.
Sensible people take an assessment of the market before making an investment. I can only assume that you are not sensibly weighing the risks.

If you don't want to participate in this thread, don't read it.

[spinnaker]

If you don't want to participate in this thread, don't read it.

Whilst Dr. Doom believes that we are in the same boat, I beg to differ. If he were to spend a bit of time reading on how we got into this mess, he will clearly see that we are most definitely not in the same boat, but in different boats. The European Central Bank isn't preparing to a bail out in the same way or on the same scale as in the states. Why? Because the banking system is different. So for my money, its well worth reading and discussing these issues and understanding as much as possible. Then, and only then, will the informed have a chance to influence the future, hopefully for the better. Also, not just for the wannabies, but for anyone seeking work, a very good personnel question to ask the applicant would be: "What are your views on the Federal Banks plans to inject $700 billion into the economy, given that the US tax payer might have to bear the burden." Ok so what has that to do with flying an aeroplane? Well, I want to know how aware you are of the world you live and work in. If you have a good answer, I might even consider you for early promotion. After all you are applying for a job managing the operation of a multi million dollar/pound piece of capital equipment, and I want walking talking savvy pilots.

Yes it is a depressing subject, but armed with knowledge you can change your future, (for the better).

On the other hand, ignore this thread and the news papers and let lady luck take care of it all.

[Grass strip basher]

The cost of the "bailout" is NOT $700bn.... the US taxpayers gets lots of assets in exchange which may actually be worth a lot more than $700bn if held till maturity. Given the financial turmoil at the moment the US government may be the only balance sheet that has the luxury of being able to hold them to maturity. In fact the US tax payer could make a killing out of this.

Read or listen to the Buffet interview on CNBC a couple of days ago... hard to argue he is a man that doesn't know a thing or two about investing.

Also the last time a scheme like this was set up the US government ended up making money out of it. I would advise against listening to the politicalisation of this process with idiotic senators in the US who don't have a clue what the alternative scenario looks like but are more interested in forwarding their own careers. In my opinion there is a 95% chance these scheme will be approved one way or another in the next couple of days... if it doesn't then severe recession here we come... and 15-20% of the FTSE in a day.

GETTING THIS BILL PASSED IS PROBABLY THE SINGLE MOST IMPORTANT EVENT FOR YOUNG WANABEES HAPPENING AT THE MOMENT.....there is a small chance a group of politicians with no financial background could screw it up.... if this does not happen it will push out the pilot job recovery out at least another 1-2 years....and yet some folks on this form still think economics and markets don't matter :ugh::ugh::ugh::bored:

[ChrisLKKB]

Given the financial turmoil at the moment the US government may be the only balance sheet that has the luxury of being able to hold them to maturity. In fact the US tax payer could make a killing out of this. Perhaps you could e-mail that to the republican tossers who want their 15 mins of fame by putting their 2 cents worth in :*

I agree this is the only chance to get the financial system back on track in a timely manner and ultimately the aviation sector. It might not address all the problems but it seems to be the least painful option to give the banks a chance to sort their house out. When/If it's passed, the government needs to show they have the balls to ween the banks and public off their culture of credit and greed!!

IMO this means no more 100% 5x income mortgages, tighter control over lie to buy mortgages and no more 70K career loans, heaven forbid wannabees will have to work for the money to train for their dream job rather than have it handed to them on a plate.

[Grass strip basher]

Chris about 12-18 months ago in the wanabees forum in Pprune there was a thread that actively encouraged wanabees to get £70k-80k in debt for their training and then declare themsleves bankrupt... this was being suggest as a via and credible route to getting a frozen ATPL without the burden of the associated cost... it even received support from some of the more "seasonsed" Pprune veterans.

It is the sort of individuals that went down that route that are the root cause of many of the issues we have now in the banking system.... I'm not just talking about in aviation but the broader general attitude of shirking debt related responsibilities people have signed up to. These wanabees are as bad if not worse as the buy-to-let landlord who over stretched himself and defaulted.... their selfish approach is unfortunately likely to have ruined it for those coming along behind.

Back then some people flagged that this reckless approach to borrowing would signal the end of the £50k wanabee loan.... looks like those folks may well prove to be correct.

God forbid you might have to actually WORK and save for your training.... what ever next :oh:

[Aerospace101]

well said grass strip :D

GREEDY people; along with all those that went down the pay for line training & SSTRs...

[BitMoreRightRudder]

I don't agree with pay for line training schemes and paying for your own type rating isn't ideal either. However, to suggest people who have done either are to blame for the current mess is horlicks. If you are going to take that line of argument you may as well blame anyone with a credit card guys.

Borrowing money with an awareness of how much you will pay back over how many months/years and with a firm plan of how you are going to do this is one thing, to borrow recklessly without any thought as to how the debt can be re-paid is something else altogether. I would suggest someone who borrowed cash to fund a cpl/ir and a 737 rating would fit into the former category.

I'd vent your frustration towards the financial institutions and credit companys who have willfully lent money they could never hope to recover, and will now be bailed out with taxpayers money.

[Grass strip basher]

No if you borrow money and don't pay it back you are part of the problem. Full stop. Enough shirking of responsibilities... oh it wasn't my fault etc etc... it called being responsible for you own actions. In some coutries around the world they throw you in jail for not repaying debt it is that serious... but it makes people think twice.

It is not the financial institutions that are getting bailed out... that shows a complete lack of understanding. It is the depositors (and rightly so). Why should people who have saved money prudently with that bank lose their money? The shareholders of the bank are wiped out...not bailed out.

Thats the problem with this crisis... too many people believing what they read in the press which is woefully miss-informed.

[BitMoreRightRudder]

The financial institutions, their senior staff, their policy makers, those who decide who to lend to, what rate to lend at, how much they will lend are being bailed out. I never said people who default on payments are not part of the problem. Those who are defaulting are being bailed out as a side-affect of senior financial sector employees who should have known better totally :mad: it up.

You sit someone down infront of a desk in a bank and tell them they can afford a three bed semi in a decent area of town, that they have tried to work towards owning for god knows how long, and they will bite.

Blame the defaulters all you like, if the money wasn't being lent in a criminal fashion in the first place their weak will and poor understanding of how credit actually works would never have been exposed.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Chicken and egg situation.

Blame the people for borrowing or blame the banks for lending. I blame neither.

I blame the government and their financial regulators and central banks. The current crisis was forseen by little old me 18 months ago. Sure as hell those at the top knew way before me what was to unfold. But the asset bubble made the voters feel good and that returned governments.

Planned bankruptcy was and is a pefectly rational and logical path for a young Wannabe. Its a path opened up the governments sharp relaxation of the penalties of bakruptcy and its tarmaced by the banks who just want to shovel the money out of the door instead of asking questions. The path leads to moral and societal oblivion but the Wannabe played only a part in his journey down it.

270 odd CTC cadets concerned about actually getting placed in an airline will probably be getting quite clued up about bankruptcy law at the moment.

I'm against the Paulson bailout as:

a) I think its theft, and

b) I don't think it will work



Recessions are meant to restore balance, purge excess, and liquidate mal-investments. We *need* a whopper of a recession.

2009 is going to be a repeat of 1991 and a great many airlines will go bust. Spock the Wannabe would probably stop spending on training immediately. Many won't - I was talking to one this morning taking their Multi IR on Monday believing that would ideally position them for when jobs become available in 18 months time..!

A failure to read up on any history there then.

:(


WWW

[Grass strip basher]

WWW so you think it is fair for depositors with more than the FSA £35k maximum to lose their money in these banks? Geeez screw saving then may as well go out and blow all our cash... whats the point in saving money if it just gets wiped out by the debts of wreckless borrowers.... :ugh::ugh:

Who is the Paulson plan stealing from exactly? If it is the taxpayer?... then the assets they get in exchange may be worth more than the $700bn?

It will cost the tax payers a lot more than $700bn if it doesn't happen. I will guarantee you within a week of them saying the bailout is no go the US taxpayer will be taking ownership of Wachovia, National City and a raft of other banks with balance sheets totalling way more than $700bn as they all collapse under the weight of illiquid money markets.

If this plan doesn't happen we will go into financial meltdown. I never though I would say this..... but WWW I think you are too optimistic in terms of your view of the world if this plan doesn't happen!!

Geeez even Paulson is getting down on one knee to beg for it.... Buffet says it is essential.... who would you listen to??

1991 was very different to today... I would take the 1991 situation in preference to this without a second thought.... fear not WWW you will get you severe recession.... this is about preventing a depression

[ChrisLKKB]

Chris about 12-18 months ago in the wanabees forum in Pprune there was a thread that actively encouraged wanabees to get £70k-80k in debt for their training and then declare themsleves bankrupt... this was being suggest as a via and credible route to getting a frozen ATPL without the burden of the associated cost... it even received support from some of the more "seasonsed" Pprune veterans.I'm absolutely astounded :ugh::ugh::ugh::ugh::ugh::ugh: What a bunch of :mad:wits, those who considered it and those who encouraged it!!!

It begs the question, should the people that are willing to take those sort of risks be allowed to be responsible for several million pounds of captial investment and thousands of peoples lives over their careers ?

Everyone's looking for someone to blame for the mess we are all, some people are blaming the banks and financial institutions while others are blaming the government. Very few seem to want to blame the people at the heart of this mess, the borrowers, particularly borrowers who apparently seem to think it's OK to risk 70-80k because they have a dream to fly big jets, particularly when there is relatively little call for people to fly big jets and we a crying out for engineers, doctors and dentists etc.

All of the above are equally to blame, anyone who takes out ridiculously large career loans, anyone who takes out 100%+ mortgages, anyone who then takes out further loans to furnish their house, anyone who is willing to hand out these loans or take similar risks in the financial sector in the hope of big financial rewards and anyone who stands by allowing all this to happen when they have the power to prevent it like the Governement and any regulating bodies. We're in this mess because of greed, it's greed that's to blame and it's not just the greedy that suffer, the rest of us are suffering too!!

For a recovery to be sustainable we need it to be slow steady and stable. The wise aviator will take that approach with their training. If you don't have the money to spend on your trainning i'd suggest the old fashioned route, take one step at a time as and when you can afford it. Build hours however you can whether it be instructing or anysort of lowpaid ariel work that comes along, imo it will make you into a more rounded pilot. It may not make a difference in right hand seat of a fancy shiny jet where you're watched over by countless computers to reduce the chances of you making a mistake but it will make you a better aviator and I reckon the whole experience will be more enjoyable too, especially when you open that first big pay packet and you realise all of it is yours.

(by the way, for anyone who thinks that this will make aviation a career exclusive to those with wealthy parents, tough, that's life, if you think that's unfair then you've been sucked in by this government. Meanwhile the dilligent will refrain from whining, keep their heads down, work hard and get there by hard graft as they have done in the past and will continue to do)

[heli_port]

in short we're all to blamehttp://img2.mysmiley.net/imgs/smile/fighting/fighting0029.gif (http://www.mysmiley.net/free-aim-smileys.php)

[ChrisLKKB]

Not necessarily all. Some pay off their credit cards in full every month, some put down large deposits on their house and take out mortgages well within their means, some only buy things when there is cash in the bank to cover it (yes folks there are some people who still do that), some make do without when others max out their credit cards on all the trappings of modern consumerism.

Here's the stumbling block in all this piety though because some have also tried saving for the future and inevitably, part of the interest from those savings somewhere along the line is probably generated by hedge funds and similar high risk stratergies so even the diligent could be accused of contributing to this. But, it would be more foolish to just put your money under a matress left to the ravages of inflation and and an escilating crime rate so no, I don't accept we are all to blame!

Edit; I'm just ranting now, it doesn't change the fact that to a greater or lesser extent, for the forseeable future we are all screwed.

[Grass strip basher]

Some people will have put their money in a "safe" sensible prudent money market fund to save for their pilot training but will now be screwed because the money markets have frozen and they can't easily get their money out... and they may even have lost a slug of it.... these are the people the $700bn is aimed at bailing out

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

96% of depositers are totally covered by the £35k insurance and the 4% who aren't should have had sense to move it into Northern Rock or Nationwide or NS&I by now.

The theft is from the future generations of US taxpayer who will have to pay the taxes to repay this bankers bailout. The urgency for panicky calls for this bailout is based on the claim that the American economy will collapse if nothing is done. If the government were to keep out, and allow the market to function, there will certainly be a great deal of economic pain. Companies will go bankrupt, banks will fail, real estate and stock prices will keep falling, and many people will lose their jobs.

BUT, government action will not prevent any of this. At best, it will merely delay the it, but only at the cost of increasing the severity of the underlying problems, therefore making their ultimate resolution that much more painful to endure.

The fundamental lesson is that there is no way to resolve our economic problems without a severe recession. Our politicians need to be honest with the public. As a country, we gambled on the alluring riches of property and we lost. The bill is about to be presented.

The Resolution Trust Corporation set up as the bailout for the Savings & Loans crisis DID NOT end up making money for the taxpayer unless you use some very funny accounting and a Tardis.


Hundreds of Wannabes will be using the bankruptcy courts protection in 2009 - I'd bet my last worthless dollar on it.


WWW

[ChrisLKKB]

Describing something that is intended to protect so many people from financial ruin as theft from future generations is is way of the mark and nothing but alarmist, socialist propaganda. It's no more theft than free education, unemployment benefits or disability benefits.

It may not benefit the entire population although many would argue that the implications of not trying to address this situation would have dire concequences for everyone on one way or another. It will benefit a vast proportion of the population though, not just the ultra wealthy , city brokers and fat cats but the ordinary man on the street who has been prudent, followed conventional wisdom and put money into personal pensions, savings plans, bonds, and endowment mortgages, not because of greed but because it's seen as the done thing to make the most of your money.

It's not their fault that so called city wizz kids have taken unacceptable risks with their money or that these risks could lead to the collapse of financial institutions and stock markets.

Some are saying that taking on these toxic assets will ultimately be profitable and therefore will actually benefit future generations so it can be argued that this is the only sensible solution although I agree that even if more tax payers money is pumped into the system it wont prevent a long painful recession but not doing so will be worse and the people who are least able to suffer the effects will be worst hit.

[Grass strip basher]

And there may be those that would profit from all this potential downside by shorting indexes eh WWW? And not being on the housing ladder... :}

[heli_port]

Some people will have put their money in a "safe" sensible prudent money market fund to save for their pilot training but will now be screwed because the money markets have frozen and they can't easily get their money out... and they may even have lost a slug of it.... these are the people the $700bn is aimed at bailing out


GSB i don't have any sympathy whatsoever for the people that put their money in a prudent money market fund as they should know the risks of putting their capital in such a fund - nothing is safe when it comes to the stock market. I am totally opposed to the $700bn as i believe market forces eventually will deal with the problems. This is the long awaited correction and i welcome it.

http://img2.mysmiley.net/imgs/smile/fighting/fighting0040.gif (http://www.mysmiley.net/free-indifferent-smileys.php)http://img2.mysmiley.net/imgs/smile/jumping/jumping0045.gif (http://www.mysmiley.net/free-aim-smileys.php)http://img2.mysmiley.net/imgs/smile/adult/work4sex.gif (http://www.mysmiley.net/free-unhappy-smileys.php)

[ChrisLKKB]

Nothing to do with it being an oppotunity for short selling then ? I'm sure knowing that the market will eventually sort itself out will be of great comfort for people who are retiring in the next few years or for people who's endowment mortgages are going to mature.

[Grass strip basher]

Heli-port a money market fund does not invest in the stock market. It is mean to be invested in "cash like instruments" with very little risk.
Many are sold as being "safer than deposits" as they spread your risk around a number of different banks. They are not mutual funds

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

For every short seller there's a long buyer. Please don't say you believe the paper thin Strawman that the Politicians set up just so they could call him Bogey and ban him?

This has nothing to do with any self interest. I've bought my farm remember and I'm out of the SM now short or long. I'm with the 200 US economists who signed this letter to Congress this week about the bailout:



To the Speaker of the House of Representatives and the President pro tempore of the Senate:

As economists, we want to express to Congress our great concern for the plan proposed by Treasury Secretary Paulson to deal with the financial crisis. We are well aware of the difficulty of the current financial situation and we agree with the need for bold action to ensure that the financial system continues to function. We see three fatal pitfalls in the currently proposed plan:

1) Its fairness. The plan is a subsidy to investors at taxpayers’ expense. Investors who took risks to earn profits must also bear the losses. Not every business failure carries systemic risk. The government can ensure a well-functioning financial industry, able to make new loans to creditworthy borrowers, without bailing out particular investors and institutions whose choices proved unwise.

2) Its ambiguity. Neither the mission of the new agency nor its oversight are clear. If taxpayers are to buy illiquid and opaque assets from troubled sellers, the terms, occasions, and methods of such purchases must be crystal clear ahead of time and carefully monitored afterwards.

3) Its long-term effects. If the plan is enacted, its effects will be with us for a generation. For all their recent troubles, America's dynamic and innovative private capital markets have brought the nation unparalleled prosperity. Fundamentally weakening those markets in order to calm short-run disruptions is desperately short-sighted.

For these reasons we ask Congress not to rush, to hold appropriate hearings, and to carefully consider the right course of action, and to wisely determine the future of the financial industry and the U.S. economy for years to come.


Signed (updated at 9/25/2008 8:30AM CT)

Acemoglu Daron (Massachussets Institute of Technology)
Adler Michael (Columbia University)
+198 others


http://faculty.chicagogsb.edu/john.cochrane/research/Papers/mortgage_protest.htm



Depositers are easily protected many times over for a fraction of the $700billion starter price of the bailout.

There is only one solution to the debt bubble of unseen and unimaginable size and that is a major recession. That's the bottom line. Anything anyone tries in government to avoid that just makes it worse.

We didn't need 4 new business/first only airlines serving the North Atlantic or Hong Kong routes and a mild recession corrected that misallocation of capital. We don't need over 50 European short haul low cost airlines and a deeper recession will correct that. We don't need over a dozen long haul full service national airlines in the EU and, once again, the only fix is a full blown recession. You can't regulate a solution. You can't campaign a solution or wish one into existence.

The Free Market can sort it all out in short order IF its left to work. The $700B Bailout is an interference in the Free Market and its works and as such I oppose it on both practical and ideological grounds.


The quicker the bust the shorter the recession the sooner the recovery the better for Wannabes.

Ultimately.


WWW

[Grass strip basher]

If this doesn't happen then depositors who save prudently WILL lose money. In my book that is not fair.

I agree screw the guys who borrowed wrecklessly. Throw 'em to the lions.

It is the depositors that I fear for if we go down your path WWW

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Given that the typical bank that fails has a deposit ratio of 14 times capital on loan you can go a long long way in bailing out depositers directly and by-passing the banksters. That's why they really are so opposed to a full scale comprehensive deposit protection scheme that they would all have to fund.

When things are bad the banks want it to be so disasterously hideously bad that they get bailed out.... Oh!

WWW

[ChrisLKKB]

So what you're saying WWW is i'm alright jack, screw everyone to punish a few and make a swift correction in the market. It'll only happen again if you you leave it to its own devices, at least with $700billion of Government money in there it will be watched like a hawk and more likely to be regulated correctly. (and no I don't think the short sellers are responsible for the bigger global problem)

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

That's not what I nor 200 ecomomists are saying at all. The $700 billion won't help anyone in the end but will have to repayed by future taxpayers.

The solution to too much debt is not more debt.

WWW

[Aerospace101]

Interesting how while the west is in economic meltdown, the communists in the east are now walking in space...

[ChrisLKKB]

Neither is the solution to let everyone suffer the catasprophic concequences. A silk parachute will give everyone a much softer landing than a concrete one.

[ChrisLKKB]

Interesting how while the west is in economic meltdown, the communists in the east are now walking in space...

Indeed, perhaps we could be seeing the start of the a major shift of power to the east, lets hope they make better use of it. The problem is (I believe) is that China has been buying up shed loads of US dollars, I can't imagine they'd want the US to collapse anymore than anyone else.

[mech500]

''growing evidence ...of upturn''
lol!!

[XXPLOD]

As the Iron Lady said, "If you try to buck the market the market will buck you."

[nich-av]

This has nothing to do with any self interest. I've bought my farm remember and I'm out of the SM now short or long. I'm with the 200 US economists who signed this letter to Congress this week about the bailout:


You seem to have some common sense left.
Indeed, the US government is planning to solve the problem from the top down, instead of solving the problem from the bottom up.
If instead of bailing out the financial institutions, they support the people who are facing foreclosure by bailing out their loans by the amount their homes lost equity, everyone, including the fincancial institutions will benefit from it.

Personally, I don't think that the bail-out will do any better to the economy. Democrats in Congress know that very well but they have a candidate to be elected and they have certainly figured a way to win the election using the bail-out problem and to solve the economic problem as well.


To get back to aviation:
Alitalia is saved. 2100 pilot jobs are guarranteed.
It's not going to be that bad in Europe, don't worry too much.

In the U.S., as I said it will hit very hard.
As a matter of fact, I got a furloughed Continental pilot with me right now.

[ix_touring]

Just been watching the sky linked press conf this evening so the following is based on th e adlib replays to those questions:

The 700 billion isn't going into a black hole therefore it’s not necessarily a bill of 700 billion...

The cash is to "buy" the (currently) worthless debt, the majority of which IS secured insome form, eg on property of one form or another. (hence the reason its not worth much NOW).

In 30 years time (a typical US Treasury bond length) the likely hood is that those buildings will be worth significantly more than they are being bought for now. Thus it’s unlikely to cost the tax payer in the medium/long term term.

Further, Congress has required the risk of those assets not being worth more in x years time to be borne by the banks themselves.

iX.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Oh no, I agree. Its not a bill for a mere $700b. Past experience of the Savings & Loan crisis suggests the final figure will be around treble that.


History is a wonderful guide to the future. Each generation learns this the hard way.


WWW

[Philpaz]

1

George Santayana
Those who cannot learn from history are doomed to repeat it.

2
David C. McCullough
History is a guide to navigation in perilous times. History is who we are and why we are the way we are.


3
George Wilhelm Hegel
What experience and history teach is this -- that people and governments never have learned anything from history, or acted on principles.

4
Gerda Lerner
We can learn from history how past generations thought and acted, how they responded to the demands of their time and how they solved their problems. We can learn by analogy, not by example, for our circumstances will always be different than theirs were. The main thing history can teach us is that human actions have consequences and that certain choices, once made, cannot be undone. They foreclose the possibility of making other choices and thus they determine future events.

5
Karl Marx
History repeats itself, first as tragedy, second as farce.


To show but a few,
I especially like no. 3.

[ChrisLKKB]

We don't have an example of allowing a globalized market to crash without intervention so how can anyone say it's not the better option. Better the devil you know perhaps.

[spinnaker]

The Free Market can sort it all out in short order IF its left to work. The $700B Bailout is an interference in the Free Market and its works and as such I oppose it on both practical and ideological grounds.

The quicker the bust the shorter the recession the sooner the recovery the better for Wannabes.

I disagree strongly that the free market should be allowed to sort this. Its the free market + our own excesses that got us into this mess in the first place. We are not talking about recession, but about the collapse of the banking and economic system. Recession will be, or is, a result. The $700 billion bail out is not a fix either, but more of a cushion for the inevitable crash landing. It was that same free market that was happy to loan money, way, way in excess of asset value and money they did not have, and we were stupid enough to sign for it. This continued until the system could sustain itself no longer, finally pushed over the edge by defaults on loans that people could not service. The US bailout is not to avoid recession, but to stabilise a broken money system. For the future, regulation and supervision will be required, and any bank or institution that does not like it, can pack up, and ship out.

[heli_port]

Thousands of pounds may be wiped off the value of your home as you read this, but property market crashes are not all bad. Here are 20 reasons not to be too downhearted about the downturn...

1. First-time buyers benefit. Falling prices make housing more affordable for first-time buyers, as long as they can save up a deposit

Money Central - Times Online - WBLG: 20 reasons to cheer falling house prices (http://timesbusiness.typepad.com/money_weblog/2008/09/20-reasons-to-b.html)

[spinnaker]

heli_port

I can see some sense in your link. Its going to take some time though. Prices have certainly fell, but at that same time, deposits went up, so that has kept many first timers out of the market. Lenders are being more choosy who to lend to, so that keeps a few more out of the market. Those things needed to be done, but some more time has to pass before we see that real benefit being seen by the newcomers. As a side show, while the house price deflation continues to increase, it is a dissuader to buy something today that will be cheaper to buy tomorrow. As the market starts to bottom out, and no one knows where or when that may be, then the time will be ripe for the first time home buyers. I reckon a fall of upto 30% on summer 2008 may be near the bottom.

If anyone reading this is a wannabie, don't look at the tickers today, go to the pub instead. :ok:

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Say to most people that the price of Gas is falling, that diesel is getting cheaper and that bread will cost less and they smile - pleased.

Those same people then frown when you tell them that housing is doing the same.

Financial illiteracy is taught in school and has been for decades.


I have to say the American system of Governance is a powerful and majestic thing to behold at times. The Banksters *almost* heisted $700bn with no strings but in the end the system has paused, noted the views of the populace and said, NO - not on those terms and not in that way.


This will be at least a bad a recession as in 1991. Things then did not recover for Wannabes until 1996. This time we have the JAA rather than the purely National license system. I fear this will make things worse this time.

No less than 4 bank failures TODAY that would have each been NewsFlashes six months ago... :(

Then cast an eye at todays airline shareprices,

BA down 12.4% at 169p....
EZY down 9.04% at 304p...
RYR down 8.9% at 225p

and the overall FTSE down to 4820 the same point as it stood at in July 1997 (pass me the flux capacitor marty!) Oil fell sharply by a massive 7% to $98 but as I said before - OIL IS A SIDESHOW. See what I meant?


WWW

[Grass strip basher]

BA closed down 13% today at £1.68... it first reached that price in July 1987.... over 20 years ago.

Ryanair down 11%.... don't think price has ever been that low since it listed.

Don't even both looking at the banks :eek::eek::eek: (especially if you are Irish):{:sad:

[Grass strip basher]

WWW you beat me to it..... 4 banks failures today.... several others shares down 40% today... more will follow.

These are not small banks either... Wachovia 6th biggest bank in the US.
Fortis is a huge bank/insurance company as well.

This will make 1991 look like a walk in the park.

Someone on here said a few weeks ago when people were flagging how bad this could get... "God if anyone else tells me to be afraid... jesus wept" or something to that effect..... well sir if you are not afraid now you are somewhat ignorant of what is going on around you.

Right I'm off to the pub... and its not easy to get a drink in this part of the world whilst Ramadan is going on! It doesn't rain it pours... :{:{

[spinnaker]

Forget everything I said earlier about intervention and the US bailout. Too late, someone flipped a domino, and the rest are starting to tumble.

The worst day so far :sad:

[Grass strip basher]

.... and to date we have probably only seen c10-20% of the impact this financial crisis will have in the "real world".... report in press here saying containers are stacking up at ports around the world as banks are now in many cases unable/unwilling to finance their movement around the world. Not a story I can verify myself but funnily enough it would not surprise me now.... I have seen a lot of stuff in the last 2 weeks I thought would never happen.

And people are still paying money for flight training.... ha ha ha ha ha.... who was it who said ignorance is bliss??.. he/she was on to something....

[spinnaker]

Heard a rumour that the HBOS LTSB deal could be in doubt.

The US so far has thrown out the $700 billion bailout, the gavel has yet to come down though. Edit: AP and Reuters report the gavel down for a rejection

The Fortis failure is linked to its own earlier acquisition of a failing bank.

The Dow in free fall

I think this is the start. :eek:

[biaeghh]

Ho hum at least the weather was good today!!

[heli_port]

The lower house of the US Congress has voted down a $700bn (£380bn) plan aimed at bailing out Wall Street.

BBC NEWS | Business | House votes down bail-out package (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7641733.stm)

http://img2.mysmiley.net/imgs/smile/party/party0031.gif (http://www.mysmiley.net/free-ashamed-smileys.php)

[Grass strip basher]

US votes against bailout plan.

In the words of the outgoing and eloquent Leader of the Free World, "this sucker could go down" (i.e. the US economy)

This confirms something I have suspected for sometime... US politicians are stupid.

Prepare to reap the whirlwind of free markets. I fear it may cost many of you your jobs.

[ChrisLKKB]

If we have to rely on the market that created this mess to sort it out without any intervention it's going to take a long long time to recover to any resemblance of normality, and many innocent people never will. I pity anyone retiring on a personal pension in the next 20 years or indeed anyone who was hopeing to utilise an equity release scheme to fund their retirement.
I suspect half of the daft f*ckers only voted against it to keep there jobs, ironically most people they'll be representing will be unemployed.
Hopefully they will manage to repackage the deal in time to turn the unimaginable into just a mere catastrophic depression :rolleyes:
I notice Branson is another step closer sending people on 'space holidays' lol, never mind space travel, I doubt the average person will be able to aford air travel for many years if something isn't done.

[Artie Fufkin]

Someone on here said a few weeks ago when people were flagging how bad this could get... "God if anyone else tells me to be afraid... jesus wept" or something to that effect..... well sir if you are not afraid now you are somewhat ignorant of what is going on around you.


I remember seeing that too and you have quoted it totally out of context. What the person was trying to say, which seems even more relevant than ever, is that the pprune masses get it. The collective penny dropped on September 12th when XL failed. The quotee's point should be re-asked - why hasn't this thread been closed or moved to Jet Blast? What point is it now serving being on this forum?

[Grass strip basher]

Because Artie Wannabees are not Ostriches and should not bury their heads in the sand.... please name a more relevent event going on in the world for wanabees at the moment?? I can't think of one.

Todays vote probably indirectly just cost 1000s more pilots their jobs and put back recruitment of low hour wanabees by several years.

And yet you would move the thread to JetBlast alongside jokes and comments on soap operas. Why because you don't like what is going on in the real world?? Back to the wanabee bubble of "it'll be different for me" :ugh::ugh: :oh:

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

The thread also stays as a monument to all the people such as myself and GSB and several others who spent considerable time and energy providing PPRuNe Wannabes with a MASSIVE early warning alarm about what is happening now.

Its also better in to have one long thread about this than have dozens keep popping up as and when the next element of the crisis surfaces.

There's a whole stack of other threads to read if you're bored of this one...


WWW

[MarcoFF]

Damn it. Hah, republicans probably haunted their chances for elections, and gave a start to obama which nobody can succeed.

So now it is gonna happen, USD and USA meaning in the world economy will crash down, and China, Middle-east and India will grow their power.

But there is still chances that bailout plan will be accepted..

What will happen to wannabes? Nobody knows.

[ChrisLKKB]

For those who think the $700B is a bad idea...

(excerpts from The Bailout: Myths, Half-Truths, and Inconsistencies (http://www.fool.com/investing/dividends-income/2008/09/29/the-bailout-myths-half-truths-and-inconsistencies.aspx) )

Myth: The proposed bailout will cost taxpayers at least $700 billion

Fact: The proposed $700 billion isn't a donation, a grant, or a gift -- it's an investment. The money will be used to purchase assets from banks at a steep discount to nominal value, and then sold down the road once the smoke clears. The proceeds from those sales will go back to the Treasury and pay off the debt issued for the bailout. It's completely reasonable to assume taxpayers could in fact profit

"In any case in which there is a shortfall, the President shall submit a legislative proposal that recoups from the financial industry an amount equal to the shortfall ..." Warren Buffett weighed in on this topic, saying, "If the government makes anything over its cost of borrowing, this deal will come out with a profit. And I would bet it will come out with a profit, actually."

Half-truth: This is a bailout of Wall Street
Fact: This is not a bailout of Wall Street: It's a bailout of the American financial system from a problem caused by Wall Street (as well as Main Street).

The portion that does get bailed out is the financial system that every single American relies on whether they know it or not. From grocery stores that rely on lines of credit to stock their shelves to small businesses that rely on credit to make payroll every month, there truly isn't an inch of the economy that wouldn't get sucked down the tubes in one way or another if the financial system were allowed to collapse.

Inconsistency: The economy won't implode if a big bank goes under
Fact: The only thing that stopped the domino-style financial meltdown was word that the mother of all bailouts was taking shape.

Inconsistency: Let 'em fail, the sooner they die, the sooner we recover
Hogwash. "Tough medicine" makes sense insofar as the medicine isn't so tough that it kills you. The big factor that needs to be addressed here is that foreigners own more than one-quarter of all the public debt in America, which in effect gives them the ability to send the financial system into Armageddon if they sense our financial fortitude teeters on collapse.
Any large-scale fallout in the financial sector could give foreigners a good reason to start dumping treasuries en masse, causing a bank run on the largest debtor in the world: the U.S. government. There is no doubt that such a run would push the value of the dollar to unimaginable lows, as well as cause a domestic credit crisis to boil into a currency meltdown. Such a meltdown would make any recovery several orders of magnitude more difficult than it would be with the bailout.

I'd be interested to hear anyones opinion who disagrees with the bail out as I can only imagine that you hold that view because you don't think the situation we are faced with is as dire as it is. Just because markets have recovered from down turns in the past doesn't mean they always will.

[littco]

Agree with Spinnaker. The government pretty much hammered the final nail in the housing market coffin today. B&B was/is the largest buy to let lender and with the demise of Parragon as well, many property investors are going to be scr*wed. Now being state owned the government doesn't want anything to do with the buy to let market.

It'll be 18-24 months before we reach rock bottom and i agree with 30% lower than this summer. however, in many areas I reckon it could be upto 50%.. While it may be a good time to be a 1st time buyer, it certainly isn't if you are a property investor..

How long before we see the government offering bailout packages to the housing market???!!!

[littco]

Chrislkkb,

Question now is going to be, " Is $700bn enough ?" especially in light of the Dow currently being 7% down today alone... If you weren't braced last week, reckon you should buckle up tighter this week... Heaven help the FTSE in the morning..

[ChrisLKKB]

Question now is going to be, " Is $700bn enough ?":eek:

I seem to recall the original figure for TARP when it was first mentioned was 1 trillion.

I wonder how much inaction will cost this government and the tax payer in redundancy payments, unemployment benefits, housing benefits and lower tax revenue?

If anyone thinks that nationalising and bailing out failing banks is robbing from the tax payer, perhaps they should remember that the tax payer and the government were benefiting and reveling in all the free lending that was going on. They also created this problem so they should also shoulder the burden. If they don't think investors will be punished then perhaps they should check out how much the share prices have fallen in the past year or so.

[Grass strip basher]

$1trn wiped of the value of US stock markets yesterday alone.... hate those kind of stats but its puts the $700bn in context.... a lot of that has come off the value of US pension funds (401Ks) belonging to the "man on the street". It won't be long before they credit card limits are cut and many lose their jobs.

This comment sums up why we got the no vote... it is from Republican Congressman Paul Ryan....

"We're all worried about losing our jobs," Rep. Paul Ryan, R-Wis., declared in an impassioned speech in support of the bill before the vote. "Most of us say, 'I want this thing to pass, but I want you to vote for it—not me.' "

Well thats the sort of backbone that the great nation of the US of A is built upon... too afraid to do what you know is right because you are worried about your own skin.

This seems an appropriate quote... from a US politician with some backbone... little would appear has changed over the years....

"The credit and fate of the nation seem to hang on the desperate throws and plunges of gambling scoundrels." Thomas Jefferson 1790

[ChrisLKKB]

It's WWII all over gain, they wont do anything until they are shocked into realising it's they that are being effected, this time though they wont be able to come in and claim all the glory.

[EGHH]

For me the $700bn package is analoguous to topping up the oil on an engine thats on fire. You can oil it as much as you want but it's not going to make it run any better. In fact it may just burn into nothing before it even makes it into the engine...

It will be interesting to see how the government treats B&B. I know someone who had a Northern Rock mortgage and lost his job shortly after the takeover. Jobs in his sector are rarer than the proverbial rocking horse droppings at the moment so he's working as a postman, a pizza delivery boy and a barman. He wouldn't need three jobs if the Government hadn't jacked up NR's variable mortgage rate to try and force people to move their mortgages elsewhere. The idea is all well and good in principle but it's not particularly realistic in this climate. Banks aren't exactly falling over themselves to hand out mortgages at the moment.

For what it's worth, I don't think the $700bn bill passing will make much difference. It might starve off the breakdown for a couple of months but when you consider that the Treasury added $650bn of liquidity to the market yesterday and it made next to no difference, what chance does this initial $250bn tranche have?

Last thing, when the shorting rule ends on Thursday, there will be more pressure on Congress to pass the bill. Shorting will have an amplifying effect on the existing instability and could really make things "interesting". I just wish I had two ha'pennys to rub together as it will soon be a very good time to buy into the equity market...

[Grass strip basher]

EGHH I think you are right the deleveraging of bank and household balance sheets has to take place. The $700bn is not mean to prevent this just try and let it happen in an orderly fashion to limit the fall out. That is sound logic as far as I am concerned.

European markets surprisingly rational and calm this morning. FTSEUROFIRST 300 just turned slightly positive.... would have got very good odds on that last night. US futures indicating slight recovery as well.

[daviojk]

Ok, this is something I have never seen in 10yrs of paid for flying (including post 9/11)...

"British Airways would like to offer XXX travellers a oneway upgrade from Club World to First
for travel from Hong Kong to London between 01 October and 31 December 2008 in conjunction with use
of your corporate fares.

Your travellers will be able to book your discounted fares in J/C/D/R class, and book a confirmed
upgrade to First on one leg of the journey in either direction."

And bearing in mind the rate at which banks are disappearing, this will have a big knock effect in terms of business class fares. Flying from HKG to HRW, Virgin is the cheapest for my company, but thought this was a rather stark reminder just how pain the big carriers will have to endure for the next few yrs.

However I flew back last week & the cabin was packed, so what do i know....:sad:

[ChrisLKKB]

Warren Buffet seems to think the bail out is the right thing to do and i'd imagine he knows a thing or two.

He seems to think that TARP is a good deal for the government and therefore the taxpayer and he seems to think that the package will go through in one form or another.
CNBC INTERVIEW TRANSCRIPT & VIDEO, Part 1: Warren Buffett Explains His $5B Goldman Investment - Warren Buffett Watch - CNBC.com (http://www.cnbc.com/id/26867866/site/14081545/)
As i've said before I also don't think the bail out is going to solve the problems that we are facing, it's more handing the markets a silk parachute rather than a concrete one.

[spinnaker]

For those who think the $700B is a bad idea...

(excerpts from The Bailout: Myths, Half-Truths, and Inconsistencies ).......etc.

Some of the biggest myths floating around is that its all to save the markets. That isn't strictly true, its more about saving the monetary system, that is why the stakes are so high. You could arguably say that the markets are the monetary system but that is only partially true. The markets are the visible elements of the monetary system and they are responding to parts of the system that are largely invisible but are the backbone of every financial transaction that takes place. At the heart of all of this is trust, and that is what is in short supply. Banks do not trust each other, and with good reason. We see an ever increasing number of banks fail, and now banks that have rescued other banks fail, the monetary system slowly, but surely breaks down. Would I want someone to pay of a debt with me with a fistful of derivatives? NO. Would I want them to pay cash? that's better. What I really want, is my debt to be settled in gold or some other commodity. I have lost confidence in money, that's what's going on right now. Oil prices and other commodities will see saw in apparent disorder against world demand because they are seen as a refuge protected from some of the current dangers. We have already seen this with oil prices. $120 down to $90 a barrel, all in a heart beat. Did the world demand for oil change that much? No.

No politician ever explains any of this, probably because they don't understand it themselves, or they think we are too dumb to understand. What the feds are trying to do is restore confidence, or trust, back into the system. They want to do that by taking out the bits that scare the money men.

WWW said, (I think) that $700 billion would not be enough and the bailout should not go ahead. I feel he is partially correct. $700 billion is a fraction of the bad debt (btw we are not talking ALL debt, just the rancid bits). To sanitize the full extent, $5 trillion? The feds feel that the lower $700 figure is enough to restore enough confidence and get the system to sort the rest under its own steam. I feel they are right to try this, it may work, although its effectiveness diminishes as the delays continue.

[spinnaker]

....handing the markets a silk parachute rather than a concrete one.

Cotton maybe? :E

[ChrisLKKB]

It sounds like the moths will have chewed great holes in the cotton by the time it deploys :}

John Authers at the FT has pointed out in his 'Short View' video diary that because of congress trying to protect $700bn of tax payers money it has already cost them $1.1tr yesterday, alone :D

[Grass strip basher]

daviojk.... that one-way upgrade is a scheme they regularly use for business travellers to the US... and very nice it is too. Not sure if it has been use on HK routes before.

[spinnaker]

ChrisLKKB

Because Congress voted no, they also show a damaging lack of confidence of their own system.

[ChrisLKKB]

How many genuinely lack confidence though and how many were voting to save their jobs ? There have been several quotes thrown up already where it is simply the latter.

Some think by voting against the bill it will punish the 'fat cat's and that's what the voters want... I think this sums the reality up though Stop Playing Politics With Our Futures - 30/09/2008 (http://www.fool.co.uk/news/investing/2008/09/30/stop-playing-politics-with-our-futures.aspx)

But at least the Wall Street executives will pay the price for their excesses, except many of them are already multi-millionaires, and that money can’t be taken away from them. Still, at least they won’t be able to earn more millions, and their multi-million dollar stock option packages will be worth only a few million now.
Phew. Thanks Congress.

[spinnaker]

many were voting to save their jobs

Hopefully, the Americans will see the self interest element and they will loose their jobs anyway. Some thing tells me that I'm dreaming.

As for punishing the fat cats, I wonder how that works. Destroying their own investments and pensions more like.

[hot_stepper]

Bizarre and worrying times indeed, and most interstingly the FTSE is everso slightly up at the moment but the December Index futures are still about 40 clicks down.

The dow is currently being priced at about +80 points on opening and I wonder whether the majority of the fair weather investors have jumped ship now and we're left with the more serious funds only.

Still I definietely think that the next two weeks are gonna be real make or break ones and if it ends up being break it will be the likes of nothing else, the collapse of banking infrastructure in the western world aka capitalism would have the hugest of impacts.... Funnily 15 years ago I would have found all of this extremely exciting but now with 2 mortgages, a 9yr old, a pregnant wife and working as a contractor it all seems extremely foreboding...... Ho hum, better look at pausing my PPL, stocking up on tinned food and maybe find a place where money isn't that important... any one know where they still use sea shells as currency???

[spinnaker]

....any one know where they still use sea shells as currency???

Not quite, but I swapped 8 weeks grazing for 40 head of cattle for a ton of wheat. I get my grass topped for 30 doz eggs, I swap 100 sq meters of my barn storage for 6 months for 200 hens and Gordon McGoon has to go and whistle.

[twentygrand]

At least its shut them about bloody Global Warming.

[ChrisLKKB]

get that wheat malted an I can turn it into beer :ok:

[spinnaker]

I haven't mentioned the two ton of barley that I got from swapping one tup and three gimmers. That is being malted right now, and I have 50 gallon of beer fermenting right now. :}

[ChrisLKKB]

That's a nice chunk of tax money legaly kept from away Gordons greedy little mitts. :ok:

(btw gallons or litres?)

[biaeghh]

The weather isn't so good today!!!

[ChrisLKKB]

Another quiet day over there then!

[G-SPOTs Lost]

20k - Too True

Spinnaker

When you need it ferrying over the county line let me know, It might be a diesel golf instead of the General Lee but I can paint a confederate flag on the roof.....

YeeeeeeeeeeHahhhhhhhhhh......

[spinnaker]

(btw gallons or litres?)

'tis Gallons :E

[ChrisLKKB]

So that's why you need all those hens, pickled eggs to go with all that beer :}

[Artie Fufkin]

Well I will say it one last time and then leave you guys to it.

This thread is now irrelevant. It, or least ways ...downturn... was set up to alert wannabes to the approaching storm. Very commendable and very, very relevant. However, the storm is now here. It is headline news and the talk of every pub in the land. Everyone understands that days with multipe bank failures and record drops in stock markets means its not a great time to train.

Should I start a thread entitled "The Pope Is Catholic" or "Bears Sh*t In The Woods"?

Rant over.

[Grass strip basher]

At some stage Artie there will be an upturn.... and 12 months ahead of that will be a great time to start training... you may see that the thread is now called "growing evidence the upturn is upon us"...... you never know you might get some evidence that that is just around the corner on this thread in the months ahead given the breadth of experience and different backgrounds of the people that contribute...... might not get that on your "bears sh*t in the woods" thread..... just a thought.

[spinnaker]

Artie Fufkin

Nothing wrong with a little banter, no one takes the current crisis more seriously than I do. I am certain that this is true of other posters. I said in a post a while back that its really hard to give a wannabie good solid advice right now, apart from wait. This thread is relevant, maybe there are not that many who want to be up to their knees in chicken poo every morning, but it might spark an idea off with someone to do something to help themselves through very difficult times. Look slightly below the surface of what I write and what I am doing. Skill swapping. That's how you get what you need without money. Yesterday I had £150k's worth of machinery stuck in a peat bog, to make matters worse, I don't even own the kit, or have the money to pay for damage or the two JCB's that I used to dig myself out of the mess. I used my brain to swap myself out of trouble. (Mrs. Spinnaker will be let out of the work house in three months time).

When the interviews start, jobs are going to be hotly contested. The guys that get the first jobs will not necessarily be the ace of the base, but they will be the ones that can think smart and be resourceful. So why wait for a group exercise to demonstrate that resourcefulness, when there is ample opportunity to do it for real, when it really counts.

ChrisLKKB

I hadn't thought of pickling the eggs, a big thank you. I reckon that one will work. :D

[ChrisLKKB]

Artie, you will find that some airlines will ask you about current affairs during an interview should you be lucky enough to get one. I would suggest keeping yourself informed of the current situation whether it be on forums like this or from a broadsheet news paper.

Yes it's dull and you'd rather ignore the current situation but it is shaping the future and eventually bad news will give way to something a little more positive and eventually the first few grains of hope of financial recovery will start to appear which will be the seeds of an upturn in the aviation sector.

Something i'd be concerned about right now if you are a pilot in the system hoping to fly for the airlines is Flybe taking on the MPL scheme, if this proves sucsessful then young new wannabees might want to consider how they can make themselves as eligable as possible for this scheme in terms of their education. I suspect other airlines have at the least considered this option and will be monitoring flybe closely. It could change the way most large airlines recruit altogether.

Spinnaker, try half white and half brown vinegar :ok:

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Don't worry about the MPL. Its a dead end license. Some say that Flybe like having the contrarian fleet because all their type rated pilots have no other airline to leave to without incurring a new type rating. Being an MPL holder would fit that model.

The thread title and its content don't have to match up too closely when they get this big so, Artie, please stop worrying and leave the forum management to me. Thanks,


WWW

[Lurking123]

The thread also stays as a monument to all the people such as myself and GSB and several others.......

please stop worrying and leave the forum management to me
:yuk::yuk::yuk:

Any chance of some moderate moderating then, or are you going to continue on your ego trip?

[DanT1982]

Any chance of some moderate moderating then, or are you going to continue on your ego trip?


If anything he deserves an ego trip. He tends to be spot on almost every time.
Baffles me why so many people get on his back, a constant source of proven good advice from a seasoned professional pilot... and it's free

[Lurking123]

Dan, I have no problems at all with any of the information, analysis and guidance that WWW and other have put forward. I just have an issue with the delivery.

[ChrisLKKB]

I've never met WWW but I doubt very much he intended those phrases to come accross in the way you've perceived them to.

WWW, as you've probably seen elsewhere I reckon the MPL could potentially become a very neat crewing solution if it were to be widely adopted, particularly if airlines introduced conversion courses when recruiting for experienced MPL pilots looking to jump ship.

[heli_port]

Natiownide house prices fell 1.7 per cent last month to post their biggest annual drop since records began.

Prices sank for the 11th consecutive month and are now 12.4 per cent lower than a year ago, with the average property worth £167,797, the lowest since February 2006


Nationwide says house prices fall at record pace (http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/money/property_and_mortgages/article4865377.ece)

http://smileys.on-my-web.com/repository/TV_and_Movies/bouss.gif

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Lurking123 wrote; Dan, I have no problems at all with any of the information, analysis and guidance that WWW and other have put forward. I just have an issue with the delivery.


Yes I had noticed that. Looking back there's barely been a month gone by on this thread where you haven't popped up and criticized either my tone, my arrogance or my message. I get it. I got it a while ago actually.

Why don't you do me a favour instead and ring up A and C and ask him if he's ready to pay up on our bet about a major house price crash?


:} WWW

[littco]

Talking of a housing crash and just to illustrate how bad it is and how back it will become.

My best friend over a 5 year period bought 29 house's to rent out. He is now in a situation, due totally to his own mis reading of the market and the property price demise in a situation of having to sell all the houses or face bankruptcy.

He put all but a few on the market in March this year, and sold none. He has now put them on the market at basically cost price, Ie the mortgage he owes on them, In most cases this the value of the house/flat - 20% deposit and 10-15% rise in the house price since the last re-mortgage. Ie he is selling them 30-35% lower than the he had them on for 7 months ago!!

And they are still not selling..


He is with B&B and no chance in 18 months time of getting a new mortgage with them and facing a hike in interest rates as he goes on to their tracker rate, assuming he can!

Believe me, he has gone from making a profit to making a loss over night. Had planned on keeping these for term of the mortgage but now is finding that he is having to cover the rate increases himself.

Stupid yes.. Reason the housing market is in trouble probably. likely to get better soon.. not a chance..

Just trying to give a real life example of how and why this is all happening.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Thanks for that. I've read dozens of similar tales but I suspect many here won't have. The BTL aspect of this particular crash is going to be highly accelerative.

Never before has Joe Sixpack been allowed - actively encouraged - to make highly geared speculative investments, many times his income, on credit, with lax regulation.

WWW

[Shlarm47]

WWW, I totally agree and let's not forget about commercial property. There have been alot of amateur investors enter this sector over the last 5 years and benefiting from strong growth. When Banks start repricing their risk and start revaluing commercial portfolios the s*1t is really going to hit the fan!

This is going to effect everyone.

[spinnaker]

the s*1t is really going to hit the fan!

I think we may be starting to see the beginning of this. Peston (http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/robertpeston/2008/10/nationalisation_by_stealth.html) reports that the banks have been to the BoE with their begging bowls again. Just as worryingly depositors are starting to shift money around as well, including the wholesale side of the market. Now that could start to give a few liquidity problems.

[ix_touring]

I got a head of steam on the other post and decided it needed to separate posts for the whole rant ;-)
Again, everyone’s getting bent out of shape at falling property values; it’s only relevant if you’ve trying to move!

They had a guy on the radio moaning about his 2 year old house with negative equity, 95% LTV and now the end of his fixed rate… with no option but std. variable. They were interviewing him ‘cos he’s had to get a second job’… ahh didums!

I wonder if he’s canceled his sky TV, mobile, gym membership, sold his 42” plasma TV etc? (I suspect not by the radio station, accent and location).

So now they say property is down 12% p.a. and the media are all over it. Where were they (the media) when it was up 10% p.a. for the last 3 or 4 years? (bar the last few months of last year) We are well into the media creating a self fulfilling prophecy in creating worry and instability.

Last summer some pundits suggested we needed a correction in the market of some 25%. Now the main stream press are saying we’re heading for a 25% overall drop and it’s the end of the world... NO ITS NOT! It’s only a problem if you try to sell! You took a mortgage with a short term discount and agreed to pay the rest for the next 22 years at SVR, so keep paying and in 5 years time you’ll be back into equity and you can move.
Rant over.
iX

[ChrisLKKB]

Again, everyone’s getting bent out of shape at falling property values; it’s only relevant if you’ve trying to move!

or if you can't meet you repayments and have to sell up to pay off your debt.

I wonder if the next property slump will bring a new problem caused by the fairly recent increased popularity of interest only mortgages?

[Shlarm47]

ix touring, I don't disagree with you. There is however a whole other world outside of owner occupied and BTL residential properties. This whole situation started as a result of secondary property and BTLs. The banks in the US and UK over funded in this sector and couldn't sell their debt, thus not being able to created more liquidity (I think you could argue securitisation has a lot to answer for). Suddenly individuals couldn't afford to keep their BTLs AND because of the lack of liquidity individuals couldn't refinance. Too much supply v not so much a lack of demand but lack of affordability and lack of finance = residential values fall. (investment sector)

This has inturn had an impact with commercial property, falling property values, tenants unable to pay rent etc. suddenly the cost of debt (interest payments) cannot be serviced from rent and banks start to call in their loans causing a spiraling effect on values and the economy.

A further potential issue is that a lot of pension funds invest in commercial property, borrowing significant amounts to increase the return on their equity. If commercial property values fall or tenants (like Lehmans, HBOS, Northern Rock, AIG, XL, ZOOM etc) default what happens to the pension fund? We the public lose!

Let's hope the Banks gain confidence in one another soon as this would greatly assist the situation.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

ix touring - what you need to understand is the effect of Mortgage Equity Withdrawel on the wider economy. I posted exact figures many pages ago.

Roughly speaking last year there was £9BILLION borowed against existing mortgages. Nearly all of which was spent on either more inflated property, goods or services. This has now stopped. Dead. Like a turned off water tap.

The money tap that was MEW, becoming blocked, is way way way big enough to create a small recession in itself without an oil spike or a credit crunch. Recessions are like black holes. This is a cluster. Even airlines with solid foundations could be made to go bust if their maintenance service provider cannot get the credit needed to adequately stock spare parts needed to comply with regulatory requirements. The complex spiders web that allows people to click a button on a website and then as a result be whisked at 600mph through the sky to a foreign land is familiar yet hideously complex and dependent on credit.

You would be a fool not to be very afraid right now. I expected things to get this bad (most thought me odd) but its worse and the repurcussions are more sinister than I ever understood. A small shock now like the testing of a nuclear weapon or a declaration of war or major West-coast quake and the whole system could tip over. Really. No working ATM's, delayed pay cheques, queues for food. Three meals from civil disorder... etc.

Anyone. ANYONE. Under any circumstance thinking about splurging £70k on a flying training course is in need of a jacket with strap up sleeves and a window to start licking.


WWW

[ChrisLKKB]

I found this 9 min video with Gordon Nixon, Royal Bank of Canada Cheif on FT.com very interesting FT.com / View from the Top (http://www.ft.com/cms/8a38c684-2a26-11dc-9208-000b5df10621.html?_i_referralObject=874390254&fromSearch=n)

It's his view on the $700bn injection, what the problems are that the financial system faces and it's knock on effects (which effect everyone including airlines).

In short his view is the banks can and do function with their liabilities exceeding their assets, the problem is one of lack of liquidity and confidence. Something needs to to be done to restore liquidity and confidence to get things moving again.

[ChrisLKKB]

[London Sharecast]Lower cargo volumes and reduced flight schedules over the winter in Europe have prompted John Menzies to warn on profits this year. "Menzies Aviation is unlikely to meet current market expectations for the full year. Based on current expectations the board believes that the divisional earnings for the year will be in the range of £14m to £16m," it said. Trading at Menzies Distribution continues to be in line with expectations. "At Menzies Aviation we are operating in turbulent markets. Airlines are significantly cutting schedules and cargo volumes are poor driven by the price of oil and falling consumer demand. This is inevitably having a material effect on earnings," chairman William Thomson said.

[biaeghh]

WWW/Chrislkkb

With two financial gurus adorning the pages of pprune would it not be an idea to go and find some jobs with the american gov and indulge them with some of your patronising diatribe.

The world is not about to end, and yes one would be a fool to bury their heads in the sands but the scaremongoring you specialise in is akin the moneygrabbers in the financial capitals.

:ok:

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Is it because you are a Bournemouth based Flying Instructor that you dislike my scaremongering (correctly warning of a House Price Crash and a major Recession BEFORE they happened) ?


Or is it some other reason?


WWW
:ok:

[biaeghh]

Negative my friend on all counts, one further question i trust you have prospered with your ability to predict the future???.. and it is not a crash merely a long overdue correction .

[ChrisLKKB]

With two financial gurus adorning the pages of pprune would it not be an idea to go and find some jobs with the american gov and indulge them with some of your patronising diatribe.

The world is not about to end, and yes one would be a fool to bury their heads in the sands but the scaremongoring you specialise in is akin the moneygrabbers in the financial capitals.If you want scare mongering try reading some of the comments in the broadsheets or financial forums, some of them paint a much worse picture. If they're right, a few years pause in the trainning industry and in aviation recruitment is the least of anyones worries.

If you have information that suggests any of the information presented here is wrong or that the aviation industry is going to buck the trend then why not post it. I could use some good news as much as anyone.

edit: calling it a long over due correction doesn't make the situation any less real or painful and doesn't mean it's going to be over any quicker.

[DUXBY]

I think this thread is grinding to a halt, people saying the same things over and over again.

There are some well read and informed people on this thread with pretty good predictions, but all we have now is people copying and pasting exerpts to show why things are bad. I don't think there are any wannabes left who are not in the picture.

What would be impressive if one of these experts sticks their necks on the line again and predicts a little more into the future and give reasons behind their arguments. I think we need an update as it's been up and down for the past couple of weeks what with the 700bn US bailout fiasco and the situation has been changing day by day.

Can we expect to see any more airlines going bust and if so the type of outfits in the frame (obviously not who) and your reasons why?
I for one would be grateful for any advice about the future, yes we know it's going to be bad for a while, but for how long now?

Is it now just a matter of waiting a couple of years for the wannabe or is the problem far deeper than this?

www not telling anyone how to run the forum.

[biaeghh]

I just think there is a huge degree of negativity in this thread... for sure we are in for an interesting time over the next 12-18 mnths, and some people are going to suffer but in terms of the house prices they could not carry on rising at the pace they were.

[ChrisLKKB]

I just think there is a huge degree of negativity in this thread...Sadly there's not a lot to be positive about, believe me i've been trawling through the media and financial pages looking for some grains of hope. I thought this discussion had moved onto the state of the economy because of how closely it effects when recruitment will start again but apparently that offends people. I'll wait until I can find something positive before posting again.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

To quote Nouriel Roubini today http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nouriel_Roubini


We are now facing:

- a silent run on the huge mass of uninsured deposits of the banking system and even a run on some insured deposits are small depositors are scared;

- a run on most of the shadow banking system: over 300 non bank mortgage lenders are now bust; the SIVs and conduits are now all bust; the five major brokers dealers are now bust (Bear and Lehman) or still under severe stress even after they have been converted into banks (Merrill, Morgan, Goldman); a run on money market funds; a serious run on hedge funds; a looming refinancing crisis for private equity firms and LBOs);

- a run on the short term liabilities of the corporate sector as the commercial paper market has totally frozen (and experiencing a roll-off) while access to medium terms and long term financings for corporations is frozen at a time when hundreds of billions of dollars of maturing debts need to be rolled over;

- a total seizure of the interbank and money markets.

This is indeed a cardiac arrest for the shadow and non-shadow banking system and for the system of financing of the corporate sector. The shutdown of financing for the corporate system is particularly scary: solvent but illiquid corporations that cannot roll over their maturing debt may now face massive defaults due to this illiquidity. And if the financing of the corporate sectors shuts down and remains shut down the risk of an economic collapse similar to the Great Depression becomes highly likely.



Although he is very much a bears bear he's not some lunatic with no idea about the real world. I think this is the big one that people have talked about for decades.

The reason the UK Government doesn't want to provide an unlimited guarantee for all bank deposits is simple. They can't cover it. If people were to realise that the banks have much more money/debt than the Government then the Wizard of Oz that stands behind the Wizard of Oz Banks would be exposed for the puny man he really is. FIAT money itself then experiences a run and people only by gold, beans and shotguns.



For quite some time I've said this is 1990 all over again. Today I'm winding that prediction back 60 years and digging out old episodes of The Waltons for tips. (50/50 chance)

Several low cost, charter, legacy, private, small and large airlines will go bust in the Winter in the EU. That is a predicition which I will stand by and its the reason I wouldn't be a Wannabe right now. If things get as bad as I fear they will then at least I have a farm.

WWW

[Black Knat]

I have followed this thread with interest. Don't know who WWW is but he/she seems to be pretty much in touch with what is going on 'below the surface' of world events.
If people choose to 'shoot the messager' so be it. There is a big difference between being negative and being realistic. Before each flight I work on the assumption that things will go wrong and work out my options if this happens. Is that being negative?! If I choose to ignore weather/tech/payload/fuel issues etc then I am not doing my job properly. Likewise, those of you starting out on this game must weigh up the information you see regarding the state of the world economy,airlines, training options etc and decide your best course of action to achieve your aims. You will make your career decisions and the direction of your life will be affected by them. Ultimately you are responsible for the path you take and will stand or fall by your decisions. Bit like flying.

[flyer914]

Having followed and getting reasonably depressed by various “am I too old” and “economic downturn” threads for a year now, I think it’s about time for a little encouragement. I’m an almost 40 years old central European, changed my career, did my FAA commercial license a couple of weeks ago (not very helpful if you want to fly in Europe), sent my CV to one operator only (a small regional airline in Asia), got one interview and one job offer (which I happily accepted of course!). No, I have no connection whatsoever to the management, no relationship with the CEOs daughter and my CV is not that impressive at all (certainly not my TT). The point that I’m trying to make is, that while many of the posts in these gloomy threads are true- the jobs are still out there!
Now that I got my foot in the door, I believe what it really comes down to is: “network like there is no tomorrow” -like one guy in this forum wisely put it, don’t give up, stay positive and go wherever the jobs are- don’t wait for them to chase you – they won’t anytime soon.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Congratulations. Your story really suprises me but I'm glad and heartened by reading it.

Enjoy your new job.


WWW

[MIKECR]

Well done flyer914. Theres still jobs there. I know of 2 low hour(250) chaps who've just got TP jobs here north of the border, and another low hour who's been job hunting for 3 years now and just landed a nice corporate/biz job. Even little ol' me got a phonecall today!!!:) Woke me up of a nightshift but a pleasant wake up call none the less!

[flyer914]

...forgot an important factor that helps alot : TIMING
a bit hard to influence this one. Looks like many small operators don't plan that far ahead. Suddenly they run out of pilots or open a new sector and then they start to realize that someone has to fly the plane after all and call you up at 2am. Another guy here from the UK just got a job on the RHS with even less hours then me-and having less hours then me is not easy... "When your shower is cold, the electricity is off and the mosquitoes are getting through the mosquito net, total flight time does not matter." - more the kind of person you are. A fellow who flew in Africa summed it up quite nicely.

[spinnaker]

FIAT money itself then experiences a run and people only by gold, beans and shotguns.

And this is what, for me, is the real issue behind the American $700b vote. Its not the amount of money involved, but the political confidence in the monetary system. The first vote resulted in $1.1t being wiped off the value of wall street in a single heart beat. They sent out a political vote of no confidence, that potentially strikes at the heart of the monetary system. Wholesale/retail investors are now moving money out of the system, mints cant hammer out gold coins fast enough. The Irish 100% guarantee on deposits is not credible, because they cant cover that amount if the have too. The Irish economy, although relatively small, has started to distorted the markets and caused a mini run on the wholesale investments. So in a way a run has already started on fiat money, small, but nonetheless apparent.

The US politicians have made it clear, self interest comes first. Ireland gives a guarantee it can never honour. The UK will increase its Guarantee next week, to a level that may start to look shaky in the credibility stakes. This weekend looks bleaker than last week end, and that wasn't a pretty sight.

[ix_touring]

So a few weeks back I posted about the ability to still get a remortgage at a sensible rate etc.

Then the last 2 weeks of mayhem has happened, there's been loads of chat about lack of lending etc.

So, this evening I have just done the remortgage of my other house, the cost has gone up by .54% over what I was paying, roughly £175 extra (a "jump" of about 11%.

So not really the death jump that the press would suggest, clearly the fall in prices is a pain, neither property is in the sub 75% LTV band now... had they been in it, the rates would only be about .25% over the expiring ones - Doh!

It’s just not doom and gloom out there! warnings of lights not working if there's an earthquake somewhere etc are pointless. The facts speak for themselves: if you were stupid and highly leveraged, you are still stupid and highly geared. Had you lost your job last year you'd be out, if you lose your job now you still be out (but you may get gov't help now).

Yes your pension will take a hit, yes it costs more to run your car etc But the pension is not affecting you now or for the next few years and will recover; we as brits drive too much anyway, you can save 20% on your fuel just in altering your driving habits (as aviation enthusiast you know all about fuel efficiencies don't you). If you're about to retire, you shouldn't have a mortgage anyway but if your pot takes a hit, work another couple of years or take the cash and make out on 6% bank interest.

If your at the "not able to buy" end of the market, then your laughing as rents are cracking good value compared to interest and house costs.

Just how is this causing a big impact on the man in the street (estate agents excluded) going about their normal (not those jacking it all in to retrain as a fATPL) day to day life?



iX

[spinnaker]

Just how is this causing a big impact on the man in the street (estate agents excluded) going about their normal (not those jacking it all in to retrain as a fATPL) day to day life?

I have friends in Warwickshire that say things like good restaurants are noticeably quieter, they feel an overall tightening of the belts is going on. Not just from those in the lower income bands either. Apparently business class airline seats are selling quite well on certain routes, while the economy seats are taking a hit. I presume that's because a lot of worried bankers are doing a bit more travelling.

You raise an interesting point about the LTV. Correct me if I'm wrong. But as your house goes down in value, your interest rate increases if you re-mortgage?

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

So a few weeks back I posted about the ability to still get a remortgage at a sensible rate etc.

Then the last 2 weeks of mayhem has happened, there's been loads of chat about lack of lending etc.

So, this evening I have just done the remortgage of my other house, the cost has gone up by .54% over what I was paying, roughly £175 extra (a "jump" of about 11%.

So not really the death jump that the press would suggest, clearly the fall in prices is a pain, neither property is in the sub 75% LTV band now... had they been in it, the rates would only be about .25% over the expiring ones - Doh!

It’s just not doom and gloom out there! warnings of lights not working if there's an earthquake somewhere etc are pointless. The facts speak for themselves: if you were stupid and highly leveraged, you are still stupid and highly geared. Had you lost your job last year you'd be out, if you lose your job now you still be out (but you may get gov't help now).

Yes your pension will take a hit, yes it costs more to run your car etc But the pension is not affecting you now or for the next few years and will recover; we as brits drive too much anyway, you can save 20% on your fuel just in altering your driving habits (as aviation enthusiast you know all about fuel efficiencies don't you). If you're about to retire, you shouldn't have a mortgage anyway but if your pot takes a hit, work another couple of years or take the cash and make out on 6% bank interest.

If your at the "not able to buy" end of the market, then your laughing as rents are cracking good value compared to interest and house costs.

Just how is this causing a big impact on the man in the street (estate agents excluded) going about their normal (not those jacking it all in to retrain as a fATPL) day to day life?



iX



Hmmm

if you were stupid and highly leveraged, you are still stupid and highly geared. Had yoiu lost your job last year you'd be out, if you lose your job now you still be out


That's the problem. You might be alright. The stupidly over leveraged fellow customers you are now losing their jobs are dragging you down.

WWW

[Re-Heat]

Apparently business class airline seats are selling quite well on certain routes, while the economy seats are taking a hit. I presume that's because a lot of worried bankers are doing a bit more travelling.

No more, spinnaker, no more - the FT publishes the following:

BA’s premium passenger traffic drops

By Kevin Done, Aerospace Correspondent
Published: October 3 2008 20:39 | Last updated: October 3 2008 20:39

Shares in British Airways fell 7 per cent on Friday to their lowest level for more than five years as the airline announced a big drop in premium passenger traffic in September.

[Blindside]

Speaking to 2 mates in the pub last night - one had just laid off 40 people that day, another had laid off 8 on the last week.

An estate agent friend has laid off 100 people since March (across his chain).

Another who owns a car dealership is now uncomfortable about having a beer in the pub each night (not for health reasons but financial).

It is very bad out there in the real world.

[1800ed]

A lot of industries must be loosing out. Air travel is a subsidiary of other industries. People travel for business, if there is no business, there is no business travel. If people earn no money through business then they can't go on holiday.

The answer to all 'wannabes' probably isn't to 'go and just do something else', because I know in a lot of cases that there simply isn't something else to do :*

[spinnaker]

Icelands currency looks decidedly shakey (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7651313.stm) as liabilities have grown to nine times the GDP! If this is a vision of our own immediate future, even with the rosiest rose tinted specs, it looks crap. :(

-----------------------
Re-Heat,

Thanks for your correction to my earlier post. :ok:

[ChrisLKKB]

Now for some positive news :ok:

While I agree the above scenarios are all quite possible the fact that the Governments have acted quickly to this current crisis is a very positive sign. (it's just a shame they didn't act quickly to prevent this crisis many years ago :rolleyes: ).

Lessons have been learned from the credit crunch in Japan which followed impressive but unsustainable economic growth, similar to the situation we are facing now and although we may be making our own mistakes we are in better shape to make the right descisions and avoid complete melt down.

The view is that the $700bn isn't going to be sufficient and it will cost US tax payers much more but so what, it's the majority of these tax payers that regardless of their opposition to disgustingly high fat cat sallaries, fully supported capitalism and benefited from from the boom years.

We are undoubtably going to be faced with 'a world of pain' but the world wont come to an end. It appears to be universally agreed that 2009 is going to be really sh:mad:it and personally I don't think 2010 is going to be any better but there are signs that the stock market is approaching the bottom and Anthony Bolton (Englands answer to Warren Buffet, the worlds most sucsessful investor) is starting to buy shares for the first time in a couple of years. I doubt very much if they were going to fall much further or stagnate for many years that he'd be risking his hard earned cash.

It's still barking mad to even consider doing an intergrated course right now but personally I'd take some comfort in this news....

British Airways was a heavy faller after the airline reported a drop in traffic in September as tight economic conditions curbed air travel and said the outlook remains challenging. BA carried about 2.8m passengers during the month compared with about 2.96m in the same month last year, a drop of 5.6%.

However, it may be a sign of the times that budget airline Ryanair flew more than 5m passengers last month, 20% more than the same time last year, although it didn’t fill its planes quite as efficiently. Passenger numbers jumped to 5.23m in September, up from 4.35m in 2007, taking the total number of passengers flown during the 12 months to 56m. In itself I don't think the fact that Ryanairs pax numbers are up is good news, it just means that more people are turning to low cost carriers. Over all numbers of people traveling will still continue to fall and probably a few more airlines will cease to exist but it bodes well that it's a carrier that historically employs low hour pilots that is likely to come through this recession relatively unscathed. IMO though it'll be a foolish person who racks up huge debts in the hope of a large salary once they get their first job because given the current situation that first airline job could be a long way away and if MOL doesn't find a way to reduce the overall take home pay of newbie pilots when they do start recruiting again, i'll eat my hat. Never the less if you genuinely want to fly for a living and it's not just the nice fat salary that attracts you then there will be oppotunities reasonably early on in the recovery.

[spinnaker]

The way I see it, by 2011 the world will be a different place, financially at least. Preparing for that is the key to steal a march on fellow competitors. The current woes should all be behind us, or at least I hope so, and the rebuilding will have begun.

So when we emerge from our fallout bunkers what will we see? Fewer airlines, less banks, less training organisations, more regulation (on borrowing/finances). Less of everything really, all the excess fat cut away, leaving a lean machine.

[ChrisLKKB]

Fewer airlines, less banks, less training organisations, more regulation (on borrowing/finances). Less of everything really, all the excess fat cut away, leaving a lean machine.

A much nicer place all round :ok:

[spinnaker]

I tend to agree with you.

Maybe the pay checks wont be so fat, have to wait a little longer for that new car, plasma screen telly, make the old computer last a little longer. Maybe the quality of life will be better, jobs returning and people understanding the value of things, rather than the cost.

Hopefully by then, I might have gone commercial with my brewing activities. At least that way, if my vision of the future goes all wobbly, ppruners can get pissed on my value for money ale. :}

[ChrisLKKB]

Hopefully by then, I might have gone commercial with my brewing activities. At least that way, if my vision of the future goes all wobbly, ppruners can get pissed on my value for money ale.

Wont that depend on how the current hop crisis pans out? :oh::}

[smith]

I have friends in Warwickshire that say things like good restaurants are noticeably quieter, they feel an overall tightening of the belts is going on.

Aah good old Warwickshire, the world's economic temperature probe. Don't tell them in Wall St that the good restaurants in Warwickshire ars noticceably quieter. The ripple effect could be disasterous for the markets and the world economy as a whole!:ok:

[spinnaker]

ChrisLKKB

I hope I've played this one correct. I have access to a ready supply of last years hops of the correct quality. There should be enough to last me beyond next years harvest. Even if the price increases, which is a certainty, the proportion used should not be too dramatic on the overall cost of a pint. Grain on the other hand is a different story. Not all the numbers are in yet, but its not looking good for both yields and quality, so I've hedged my wheat and barley for the next two years. Barley is the most expensive component of beer. So what I propose to do is subtract what I need for the ale, and the surplus grain goes one of two ways. If the price falls bellow my benchmark, the grain is processed to enhance the value and sold on. If the price falls bellow 10% off the benchmark, I increase the head of sheep and feed it to them in winter then sell as soon as the meat market is correct, that way I preserve the value. Its known as a 'Flying Flock'. If the price increases, much more likely, I can then sell the grain on, as is, and not buy sheep. With the vacant grazing, I can now trade that for more grain above that already hedged.

So fellow ppruners, you beer is safe with me.

[BitMoreRightRudder]

So fellow ppruners, you beer is safe with me

Now that is positive news. God bless you sir.

[biaeghh]

again to my favorite financial pundits

chrislkkb/www
tell me what are our two experts going to do in the intervening couple of years during the crash and economic crisis when the financial world comes to an end. Hopefully get a life and maybe a job and indulge in a bit of reality:ok: top tip try journalism!!!

[ChrisLKKB]

Spinnaker. The crisis I was refering to was one of supply with at least one distributer refusing to take on new customers. If you have a supplier for hops that you're ok with then i'm sure you're all set, they can't increase in price anymore (I hope) they've already doubled and in some cases trebled in price some time back.

It's expected that the acerage devoted to hops will be increased over the next 3 years so prices should stabalise (it's probably too much to expect them to come down in price) and as long as mother nature plays ball the shortage will soon be over.

Smith. Aah good old Warwickshire, the world's economic temperature probe. Don't tell them in Wall St that the good restaurants in Warwickshire ars noticceably quieter. The ripple effect could be disasterous for the markets and the world economy as a whole!:ok: Gordon Ramsey was also saying on the radio that takings in his restaurants were down so perhaps Warwickshire isn't such a bad barometer of public spending. :ok:

[ChrisLKKB]

chrislkkb/www
tell me what are our two experts going to do in the intervening couple of years during the crash and economic crisis when the financial world comes to an end.

well to start with it looks like i'll end up repeating myself....

We are undoubtably going to be faced with 'a world of pain' but the world wont come to an end.
(First line, paragraph 4, post 727)

It seems like some people don't even want to hear good news when it's handed to them on a plate :ugh:If you're looking for a second career i'd give the job of proof reader a miss. :p

[spinnaker]

ChrisLKKB

I wasn't aware of distributors not taking new customers, but then I've been using the same guys for some time now. The price is an interesting one. If people stop going to the pub, hop usage might even fall. But then again, people might turn to the bottle even more, recessions do funny things to folk.

[ChrisLKKB]

Charles Faram stopped a little while back, I suspect others have too. If you get stuck pm me, I know someone who i'm sure could help you out.

(sorry mods couldn't pm this, that's the last on beer form me)

[ix_touring]

You raise an interesting point about the LTV. Correct me if I'm wrong. But as your house goes down in value, your interest rate increases if you re-mortgage?


Yep.... 2 years ago, we were well into sub 75% LTV, now we are not. However, the offered rates with both companies was still quite reasonable. This despite one of those Co's being a subsidiary of the one just bought by Lloyds. (the other having a penchant for tapas).


That's the problem. You might be alright. The stupidly over leveraged fellow customers you are now losing their jobs are dragging you down.


But mine is a long term investment, in 15 years time it will be worth at least double what it was worth this time LAST year, even after inflation.

Its unlikely anyone who bought in the last 2 years will have their interest rate double at the end of their intro rate. If they can't get a new one due to -ve equity, even their SVR will only be a couple of points higher than the intro rate. Thus they should be able to cover it. If they bought more than 4 years ago they should have sufficient equity to absorb the drops...

The '90 is mentioned often on here, did the lights go out? No, did the world stop spinning, No. Did things recover, Yes. Did some people lose out, absolutely, and them they had the chance to recover too.

iX

[Re-Heat]

But mine is a long term investment, in 15 years time it will be worth at least double what it was worth this time LAST year, even after inflation.
hmmm.

Best study those charts that the FT posted a few days ago:

FT Alphaville » Blog Archive » UK house prices: A graph retrospective (http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2008/10/02/16588/uk-house-prices-a-graph-retrospective/)

[Re-Heat]

Reverting to house prices rather than the wider economy, this is an interesting articles on the many issues with the market over the past few years. Focus on SE London, and the problems with the developments East of Woolwich, which is the last town in Zone 4 with any decent connection to London - after this, it is wasteland.

FT.com / Arts & weekend / Magazine - Requiem for a dream home (http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/1235fb4e-8f5f-11dd-946c-0000779fd18c.html)

I'll post the full article if anyone is having trouble reading it.

[spinnaker]

Re-Heat.

Interesting article, a story that has been repeated in most towns and cities. Near the end of the article from a housing association:

“Housing associations don’t actually want much of this stuff because it is substandard in terms of build-quality and size,” he says. “The flats are too small, they were badly thrown together and they are too far from proper transport hubs. These are, I am sorry to say, the ghettos of the future.”

It was doomed right from the beginning. I've seen a few examples built by Barratt and Persimmon, and I do wonder how much of a bung the planners got, not to mention the governments 'build, doesnt matter how, just build' policy.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

oil is a sideshow


This morning we have seen oil at $90 but BA's shareprice below £1.50

If you are not afraid you don't understand the situation.


WWW

[Jonty]

I think BAs share price is more to do with a £1.5bn pension black hole, than the state of the economy.

[spinnaker]

What a crap weekend, Banks can't even wait for a Monday morning to go down the pan, but that is not the main worry any more. We have seen the Icelandic get into serious trouble, inflation and interest rates at 14 - 15% and its currency almost worthless. And here's why it screws us up (http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/1abcced0-933f-11dd-98b5-0000779fd18c.html).

Euler Hermes, one of the UK's biggest credit insurers, has withdrawn cover for suppliers to a number of retailers run by Baugur, which owns high-street fashion chains including Hamleys, Karen Millen, and House of Fraser, after the financial crisis in Iceland.

On its own, manageable, but other economies, including ourselves are not that far behind Iceland. The Irish Government now guarantees all savings 100%. How? I doubt that the Irish economy is big enough to cover that guarantee, even if only a fraction of it is called upon, so the guarantee is not credible. But it does cause further instability in the international retail deposit market. Good for Ireland? NO. It shows they are panicking and making unrealistic promises. Germany? what the hell they are doing know one knows, yet. But it does look like a substantial guarantee will emerge as well. Is this good, NO. It will force the UK and other countries to make less than credible guarantees just to save the retail deposit market.

None of this is good because governments have gone into headless chicken mode, all operating independently to save their own economies and monetary systems in a global market place. I would have to dig into the history books to confirm this, but I would expect to find that this is exactly what happened during the great depression. Individual governments acted independently in a protectionist way, which ultimately made things worse.

The crisis has now spread from the banking system, to the currency system. The words 'I promise to pay.....' written on a bank note, less people trust that promise today than they did last week. Proven by the activity of the mints. They can't hammer out gold fast enough. The smart guys don't want currency any more.

The LSE is down 5% before my first cuppa

[ChrisLKKB]

Darling is rumoured to be considering a Swedish style (presumably flat packed) capital injection which has some economists making postitive noises. The injection will be back by preferential share options.

Afraid??

Of what exactly, that our houses will explode, our cars will stop running, our computers will all get viruses and our shops stop selling food altogether!!?? Certain banks look a bit shaky right now but could also prove good investments with share prices and valuations being low.

I'm sorry WWW but the gloomy ecomnomists blogs you've been reading may have predicted the end of the world some time back and now they are rubbing their hands gleefully because they can spout out more of the theories they've studied and developed during their pot smoking days at university. They may have predicted the house crash and the crash in the economy but then again so did some very sucsessful fund managers and they aren't wandering up and down the metaphorical streets with placard saying 'The End of the World Is Nigh'. They're keeping calm, commenting on the usefulness or otherwise of the measures which are being implemented, looking at investment oppotunities and offering sound advice rather than running round like Corpral Jones shouting (DON'T) PANIC MR MANNERING.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/2/22/Clive_Dunn-1973.png/200px-Clive_Dunn-1973.png

Capitalism is just a string or cirisis connected together with periods optimism and uncertainty, it always has been and always will be.

[ChrisLKKB]

The LSE is down 5% before my first cuppa

:cool::cool::cool:

All companies in the FTSE aren't going to fold, if you are relatively young and a long term investor with a balanced portfolio, this is just a relatively momentary low point (1/2/3 years?) and is a good oppotunity to buy....the question should be do you buy now or chance it and hope for a continued drop ???? :E

[littco]

Down 15% today alone. Not that I care about the russian markets much, but Boy o Boy....:ugh:

[spinnaker]

ChrisLKKB

FTSE -6.11% :eek:

In the great scheme of things you are correct. But which stocks to buy? Some of those high street names mentioned would be considered a safe haven, but because of the intricacy of who owns what and how, makes the whole business of owning stocks a risky business beyond the norm, if you see what I mean.

Again you're correct, houses wont explode etc. and I do find WWW 'be afraid' comments, shall we say, an unfortunate writing style. What I would say is that we should educate ourselves as to what is happening, and a good read up of the Great Depression would not go amiss, I can see similarities. I say educate ourselves, as economics is never taught in schools and many people out there have no basic idea how the money system works, and I feel they should. Its rather helpful at election time when they come around canvassing. :E