Growing Evidence That The Upturn Is Upon Us

[spinnaker]

Sorry, I don't see how the financial crisis is affecting pilot job prospects.


Link (http://www.travelweekly.co.uk/Articles/2008/11/11/29422/manny-uk-capacity-cuts-will-help-travel-trade-survive.html) and that comes from guys who like to talk the job up!

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

In the last recession the Government/BoE were spinning about green shoots of recovery way before anyone else could see them. I would remind people that those that now predict a short recession were the same ones that 6 months ago said no recession, 12 months ago said it was a slowing of growth and 18 months ago saw no looming problem whatsoever..

The recession will be of similar proportion as the period of falling house prices and lag it but be similar in duration. Houses have fallen for 13 months, at the fastest rate since 1932 and show no signs of stopping falling. If that is an accurate proxy for recession then expect it to be sharp, deep and long.

WWW

[spinnaker]

The only thing I can agree on, when any government minister talks about the downturn/recession/depression, is the word 'sharp'.

[one post only!]

Not often you see the words - government minister and sharp used in the same sentence!!

[spinnaker]

Irony. :} :}

[F3]

"Not often you see the words - government minister and sharp used in the same sentence!!"

Unless the word practice follows the word sharp.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/45179000/gif/_45179603_4445925c-233e-4700-828f-2a9e6522b374.gif

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Any Questions?


WWW

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

This crash is FAR MORE SEVERE than the 1991 crash. The recession that will follow will be FAR MORE SEVERE. You would be an IDIOT not to think that the impact on an industry which has expanded at break neck speed for the past decade would be FAR MORE SEVERE than last time this happened.

Did you get the bit about being FAR MORE SEVERE?



The situation for Wannabes is HOPELESS.


Great big flashing neon lights HOPELESS.



STOP STOP STOP.




WWW

[benish]

The situation for Wannabes is HOPELESS.

Great big flashing neon lights HOPELESS.

STOP STOP STOP.


No.
A universtity candidate studying for any degree is never ensured a job at the end of it, and they too get into debts of almost 30k. Work is hard to find in any industry at this moment in time. Lets all just stop and stick to being nobodies. Thats going to get this countries people far. We'll just have to get more imigrants in then.

Its our dream. We want to be in this. We'll get to that point of 'qualified' and then face the struggle.
But I'd rather be quailified and in debt with a chance of doing my dream job than just sat on my arse dreaming.

I think I'll get some finances now before it goes even more tits up and get myself qualified in time for the up turn thanks.

How about drop the LESS and keep the HOPE.

[ali1986]

But there is, (and it might be small at the moment) light at the end of the tunnel for us.

All this negativity isnt gonna get anybody anywhere in this industry, whats so hard about being happy?

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

But I'd rather be quailified and in debt with a chance of doing my dream job than just sat on my arse dreaming


I could bang my head against the wall until my untimely death.

You'll be sat on your arse dreaming of a pilot job whilst being in debt. Good luck with that upturn..


People will laugh at you.


WWW

[ali1986]

What are you ultimately trying to do make everyone not be pilots?

There are some careers you know, which you have to get in debt for, and if its your dream to do that why shouldnt you be allowed? Go for it and realise your dream.

[G CEXO]

With the fuel at $56 a barrel and the interest rate cut, I predict things moving towards a better future for all industries. But it wont be hurray hurray for atleast another 2 years. So all those starting their training now will be starting at about the right time.

But again, nothing is for certain. Little things can change big strong things.

Its not the end of the world, smile :)

[Grass strip basher]

Thats the problem.... you think it is normal for students to get 30k in debt..... this is a recent phenomenom.... that is a crazy amount of cash. Didn't happen in my day when I graduated a little over 10yrs ago. I know a lot has changed but still £30k!?. What is the point in going to uni if you are going to do some pointless "social studies" degree and end up 30k in debt??
Do people think that makes them more employable?? what a joke.

The ming boggles at the crap 10 years of a labour government has pushed into peoples brains.... and that ar*ehole Gordon Brown who was the architect of the current sh*tfest the UK economy finds itself in is running around playing the hero/leader.... it is like a serial rapist running round selling himself as a women's right activist..... all of it makes me sick:yuk::yuk::yuk:

HOW CAN PEOPLE BE SO FLIPPANT ABOUT £20,000-30,000 OF DEBT WHEN THEY HAVE NEVER HAD A JOB IN THEIR LIVES!!


Do they not teach financial responsibility in schools?? Ot would that be too likely to offend someone?.... :ugh::ugh:

RANT OVER (for now)


P.S. WWW the average age of the people you are trying to talk sense to is 18-23.... typically fresh out of school or uni.... it is quite clear from the posts above that they don't have a scooby about what is currently going on in the economy or aviation industry e.g. the pound has lost 25-30% of its value in c3 months..... (wanabees ask yourselves how you see that impacting low-cost airtravel... I won't give you the answer... you can work it out). WWW you should get a medal for the amount of flack you take from these numpties when all you are trying to do is help them.

[rogerg]

You dont make your point any better by being rude, it just gets peoples back up and then they spend the money.

[quant]

There are some careers you know, which you have to get in debt for

The international bankers would be proud of that statement Ali ;) With the greatest amount of respect I strongly disagree with that statement! What's wrong with people working for the money needed for flight training? I know lots people that have done this and during this downturn are sitting quite comfortably waiting for the upturn knowing that they haven't got any debts. I think for the past 10+ years we've been indoctrinated with the statement that "debt is ok" - no it isn't.

Anyhow just my 2 pennies worth :p

[Re-Heat]

There are some careers you know, which you have to get in debt for, and if its your dream to do that why shouldnt you be allowed? Go for it and realise your dream.
Yes - in a couple of years when the economy is improving. Doing it now is not "following a dream"; it is idiocy.

[Prophead]

Even if the industry did recover and start recruiting in 2 years (which is highly unlikely IMHO) what makes people think that with their new 250hrs fATPL they would be at the front of the queue. You will be up against experienced pilots with 1000's of hours as a result of all the redundancies.

It could be years before 250hr pilots start getting hired so why the rush to get it all done in 18 months? I just dont get it:confused:

[quant]

You will be up against experienced pilots with 1000's of hours as a result of all the redundancies.

Yes but low houred pilots cost less. I work in the finance department at Virgin Atlantic and we are looking into a few options with regards to cutting our costs and one of the many ideas being tossed around is to introduce a route for low houred pilots and possbily even a mentored type scheme.

The upturn will come...;)

[Re-Heat]

Yes but low houred pilots cost less.
And requires more training - which costs you real cash on OAA / GCAT training and base training.

Besides, you should not be revealing commercial decisions publically on this site.

[quant]

Besides, you should not be revealing commercial decisions publically on this site.

Please don't tell me what to do and i won't tell you what do do re-heat.

And requires more training - which costs you real cash on OAA / GCAT training and base training.

Agreed however i don't want to get into an argument regarding this. The fact is when we start recruiting again we will be hiring experienced pilots but be will also be hiring low-houred pilots too and the argument that low houred pilots will not get a look in because of a large number of experienced pilots on the market is rubbish.

:p

[Prophead]

quant

If what you say is true then it is indeed good news for wannabe's. However just because your airline starts recruiting people with low hours does not make my argument rubbish.

The natural progression that occurs from small TP operators who have traditionally recruited low houred pilots, to larger airlines operating jets, must surely be affected by a large number of qualified & experienced jet rated pilots being immediately available.

[benish]

I could bang my head against the wall until my untimely death.

You'll be sat on your arse dreaming of a pilot job whilst being in debt. Good luck with that upturn..


People will laugh at you.


Why would someone laugh at me? Would you laugh at your friend if he couldn't find a job?
Would make you quite a rude disrespectful man if you did.

You dont make your point any better by being rude, it just gets peoples back up and then they spend the money
The words 'more determined' come to mind.

Do they not teach financial responsibility in schools
Fair point, they don't actually teach financial awareness, but lets be honest whcih 16 year old, or younger, would sit through that and listen! They struggle listening in english classes.
Were all immature school leavers then?! I admit I've just left 6th form. i studied economics I know all about recessions and inflation and the lark so I can make my own decision about finances thanks, oh and with the help of my mother who works in finance, and my grandfather who was a CEO at a large finance company, they can help me to plan out financial arrangements. And I've worked also. In an airport in fact. Get to speak to alot of people find out alot of stuff. Its not too glim at the moment!

Anyway, I'll follow my dream. I'm not going to give up because times are hard.

This website is depressing.

[eikido]

This website is depressing.

And it's going to get even more depressing when you don't find a job because you couldn't accept the truth this depressing website provides. Listen to seniors advice.

Here are two examples:

http://www.pprune.org/interviews-jobs-sponsorship/284418-so-where-all-jobs-then.html

http://www.pprune.org/interviews-jobs-sponsorship/350677-salt-already-deep-wound.html

Please mate, for your own sake mate, read this website very carefully and try accepting the truth. This is how life is.

Eikido

[Aerospace101]

I work in the finance department at Virgin Atlantic and we are looking into a few options with regards to cutting our costs and one of the many ideas being tossed around is to introduce a route for low houred pilots and possbily even a mentored type scheme.


Virgin Atlantic looking into a cadet pilot scheme?

OLD NEWS!!!! This story came out back in 2006. Havent seen any cadets since...

[wobble2plank]

I work in the finance department at Virgin Atlantic and we are looking into a few options with regards to cutting our costs and one of the many ideas being tossed around is to introduce a route for low houred pilots and possbily even a mentored type scheme.

Any chance you could let us know which of these routes the 'kindergarten' routes will be?

At least then I know which ones are piloted by the 'cheap' option and thus which ones to avoid!

Another nail in the coffin of our profession one feels. :{

Airlines run from the back room by accountants with no idea of how the customer values experience! :ugh:

[dwshimoda]

And I've worked also. In an airport in fact. Get to speak to alot of people find out alot of stuff. Its not too glim at the moment!

Firstly, I assume you mean either grim or glum - if not, and you meant to say "it's not too good at the moment" - then I apologise! Otherwise:

I'm sorry, but if you believe that, you really have absolutely no idea about this industry at all. Talk to any commercial pilot at the moment, they will ALL have friends who have already lost their job this year, or are fearful of losing it shortly.

And it's not just losing the job, it's taking effective pay cuts, working harder, or accepting reduced T & C's.

To say "it's not too glim at the moment" is just total and uniformed crap that highlights your naievety.

No one wants to stop anyone from getting into this industry, but you have to open your eyes and be honest with yourself - the country financially is in a s**t state, and it is going to get pretty bad for all of us before it starts to (slowly) get better - try 2010 for a starter.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

If this is a re-run of the last recession then expect 1,800 experienced pilots out of work in the UK within a year and Wannabe prospects to be virtually nil for five years.


Those whom are ignorant of history have no comprehension of the future.


This recession is happening almost twice as fast as the previous one. House prices have fallen further and in less time. Sterling has fallen faster and further already. Unemployment rates are rising more steeply. Therefore there is very little reason to think that this recession is going to be milder, shorter or less painful than the last recession.

In my opinion it will be worse.

Protect yourselves.


WWW

[Lurking123]

There is an argument that says someone starting out in any new career is going to have difficulty in the coming years; the problem is not unique to aviation. Of course some career choices attract more risk and debt than others.

If you want to be as recession proof as some encourage, you need to go to medical school. The only problems there are that:

a. You need to be intelligent
b. By the time you graduate we will be well out of the recession.
c. You'll still be in massive debt.

:)

Oh, as an alternative you could spend the next 5 years reading, and re-reading WWWs incessant, one line message. This is really getting tedious.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

It is regrettable but understandable that my warnings of wannabe crisis are boring for an ex-military air traffic control officer in his 50's with a secure pension and little in the way of debt. Despite your repeated suggestions that I shut up about it I will ignore you. I feel this is justified by the fact that there are still no signs of a shortage of Wannabes hurling £80,000 at basic flying training courses in total ignorance of their real employment prospects.

You are old and crusty enough Lurking123 to have seen oil spikes, recessions and soaring unemployment before. MANY readers of this forum have not had this experience and it is to those that my general message is addressed.

I'm sure you understand.


WWW

[smith]

Its our dream. We want to be in this. We'll get to that point of 'qualified' and then face the struggle.
But I'd rather be quailified and in debt with a chance of doing my dream job than just sat on my arse dreaming.


what a tit

[student88]

wow benish - if you don't make it as a pilot I'm sure you'll find a career in writing embarrassing speeches about hope - pass me the sick bag please!:yuk: We've heard it all before, it's my dream, I'll do anything, I'm going to make it, strive to achieve, whatever it takes. It's standard fluff and doesn't need to be repeated. YAWWWWN! Stop trying to impress us - we wont be interviewing you.

Anyone who works in such a sensitive department as finance who releases information on PPRUNE no matter how old it is, doesn't deserve the job - read your contract. I'm sure there is a section on protecting company information. Some people do make my blood boil. All we can do is pity them. I don't care what you say - it's my opinion. Anyone who takes on a large financial burden now is foolish - and that includes flight training.

It's clear to see some people have no idea when it comes to risk management. Now what industry does that come handy in I wonder? Hmm...

Note: Two years ago (yes, after 9/11) I was 18 working on check-in. I flew up to EDI with an airline from STN for fun, I showed the gate agent my ID and asked if I could board the flight early to go ask the captain if I could jumpseat. I turned up looking smart and the captain took the risk and let me on the jumpseat - I had to wear one of the cabin crew's jackets to make it look like I was a crew member to other pax. Yes I know what you're thinking, foolish skipper? (Well that was his decision not mine) Anyway he said "Let me be the first person to teach you anything about working for an airline. Number 1 rule: Shut the :mad: up and listen". well what a legend he was! - probably taught me the most important rule in the book. There are lots of people who participate in this forum who could use that advice.. it's served me well so far.

For Pete's sake - there are people here offering you advice, they're doing it for free and have no reason to do it other then to want to help you in the long run. Yet, once again, all most of you can do is throw it back in their faces. If you dont like it leave it, don't rip it up and spit it back at them. Grow up a little.

Gahhhh - I'm off to run naked down the road screaming my head off. If you see me say hi!

[Frankly Mr Shankly]

Jesus whats all this "dream" bo11ocks? It's a job lads, a nice one, but a job all the same. It's not like you're going to fly your Tiger Moth from an old WWII aerodrome at dawn with the sun creeping through the mist and the sun sparkling on the dew on the grass (better than Barbara Cartland this!).

It's a cut-throat business at times, this dewey-eyed dream malarky is, well, not the real world, honestly.

The FTO's are pi$$ing their pants with laughter and relief at the "dreamers" contributing to their upkeep at the moment. Train by all means, but for christ sake open your eyes and try to time it better. No one is sure when the turn around in job prospects will be but surely it isnt a good time now! Forget flying as this bloody "dream", and see it like other people see careers. Yes it requires training, hang on, it's gonna cost alot of money, will I get a job to pay for that debt and provide a real living after I finish training..........hmmmmm, not the way the job market is, so maybe it's worth hanging fire for a bit.

Or the alternative ending, hmmmmmm not the way the job market is sooooooooooooo, I'LL DO IT ANYWAY, cos it's my dream, forget that common sense lark....

Some of you are acting like daft religious cult members, casting all reason and common sense aside when ordinarily you're probably perfectly sensible people...but mention this "dream" and on come the blinkers......

TIME IT RIGHT LADS, don't be impatient in this horrible job market!

[Grass strip basher]

"Were all immature school leavers then?! I admit I've just left 6th form. i studied economics I know all about recessions and inflation and the lark so I can make my own decision about finances thanks, oh and with the help of my mother who works in finance, and my grandfather who was a CEO at a large finance company, they can help me to plan out financial arrangements. And I've worked also. In an airport in fact. Get to speak to alot of people find out alot of stuff. Its not too glim at the moment!"......:ugh::ugh::ugh:

Wow well I bow before your vast amount of work experience (what were you doing at the airport.... cleaning??)... and if your grandfather is so financially astute perhaps you should get him to read this thread and see what he thinks of people getting very very heavily into debt at the moment chasing a "dream" with no job at the end of it for at least 2-3 years..... I think at best he would tell you to wait (like most people on here... or did he once run Northern Rock??..hmmmm )... so get him to read it.... or are you worried he will then call you a numpty as well??

P.S. If you have done economics A-level (for what that is worth these days) and you can't see the current mess the economy is in then it is clearly true that the dumbing down of the UK edication system has rendered these qualifications largely worthless.

[heli_port]

Budget airline Easyjet has seen its annual profits fall because of higher fuel costs, despite carrying 17.3% more passengers over the year.
BBC NEWS | Business | Easyjet annual profit falls 45% (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7734789.stm)

:sad:

Oil prices rise on US output data

Oil prices have risen after surprisingly good US industrial output figures and warnings of cold weather heading for the US northeast.
US light, sweet crude rose to $58.16 a barrel, having fallen to $55.29 earlier on Monday.
Brent crude rose to $54.13, having fallen to $52.84 earlier in the day.
BBC NEWS | Business | Oil prices rise on US output data (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7732824.stm)

:sad:

[Prophead]

Quote
,Its our dream. We want to be in this. We'll get to that point of 'qualified' and then face the struggle.
But I'd rather be quailified and in debt with a chance of doing my dream job than just sat on my arse dreaming.,

With that kind of thinking you may find you dont get through the aptitude/personality test for the airlines but sail through any for the large FTO's;)

[Re-Heat]

It is quite instructive that nobody knew how bad this recession was going to become, and with current forecasts people would be foolish to start any training in the immediate present.

Let me give you an insight into how terrible finance has become - this of course flows down to the real economy through financing companies and driving demand through wages paid:

- Citi announced cuts for 20% of their global workforce (75,000) people yesterday: this is after having cut 10% a couple of time this year alread
- RBS cuts 3,000 people - think of all the demand on the EDI - LON routes that has evapourated
- HBOS / Lloyds - think of the coming cuts, and the elimination of much travel Scotland - England
- Lehman - gone - tens of thousands cut and no longer travelling
- BT - 10,000 gone - many contractors no longer required and no longer travelling
- €uro and dollar rates - overseas spending is now far more expensive for all in the UK - marginal passengers will now decide not to travel
- BoA / ML - think of the coming cuts - two global banks merging and eliminating duplication in all manner of areas

If you think that the above will not lead to fewer flights and fewer jobs for at least 2-3 years, you would be mad.

Finally, note that fuel consumption in the US - the home of the motor car - has fallen 10% in a year. People are sitting at home; people are not travelling; people are not spending money on holiday.

Welcome to the real world.

[heli_port]

What worries me is the fuel price :eek: At the moment the world economy is shrinking and thus less demand so low oil price but where will the fuel price end up when the upturn begins when we all start using more? the mind boggles..

;)

[eikido]

The next oil price upswing might lead to the next recession? What if oil is the element that affects everything (say recessions).:confused:

Eikido

[wobble2plank]

what gets me is that all the big petrol, avcat, gas companies were so damn quick to ratchet the price of their commodities up when the price was rising, citing the 'horrendous' rise as the ground.

So, how fast have those prices been falling in the light of the crash in oil prices?

Piracy, it seems, is not only restricted to Somalia, it would appear that the pirates in the west wear suits!

Kiddies who wish to partake in this industry of ours take careful note. The service industries are shrinking at an unprecedented rate. Hotel bookings are way down, banking is taking a huge hit, businesses are battening down the hatches. Punters are hording their pennies for the downturn and travelling less. Inflation is no longer the devil, it is his big brother Deflation that is now the spectre on the horizon for the next 2 years. What does all of this have to do with your 'dream' you ask?

Big airlines rely on premium traffic, they are the business people and bankers who travel the world in 1st and business class. Economy passengers may still travel but they don't have particularly survivable margins on them. Why has O'Leary held off his long haul operation for so long? There is little mark-up.

If the premium traffic doesn't fly then the airlines will route capacity shrink. If the major LH routes shrink the feeder routes will shrink. The airlines will shrink. Large national carriers will contract. SH feeder airlines will go bust. It is happening already. The up swing, when it comes and it surely will in our cyclical industry, will see alot of experienced, low risk, qualified pilots looking for jobs. They will go first. You may bleat that wannabees are cheaper, they are not. These pilots may well be desperate for employment and it will be on the airlines terms. Give another couple of years for that pool to be emptied and then maybe you will see the FTO's starting to feed the airlines again.

I give it 4-5 years.

If you can service the debt for that long, good luck, remember deflation will make that debt bigger over time. If you can't, look for whatever job you can and then try flying again when the up-swing is definitively upon us.

p.s. Don't bleat on Pprune about how depressing it is. Just watch the news or look at a local London newspaper and remember that the City has been sustaining the UK economy as a whole for the last 10 years.

[Re-Heat]

what gets me is that all the big petrol, avcat, gas companies were so damn quick to ratchet the price of their commodities up when the price was rising, citing the 'horrendous' rise as the ground.
Well, careful - the oil companies operate in a market (OPEC aside), and pump prices that you pay are influenced by factors ranging from currency, to refining capacity in particular countries. The UK has not seen a fall of any consequence for example as Sterling has been dying a death.

[wobble2plank]

Bit of thread creep but hey ho.

The point was purely that when times are hard with rising commodity prices the oil companies are lightning quick to pass the pain on to the customer. Irrespective of refining, transportation and distribution.

However, with the falling oil price the advantages, however slight, are not being passed on so quickly to the consumer in a time when it is probably most needed. The big oil companies are pulling in profits in excess of £4,000,000 and hour at the moment.

back to the thread.....

[chickentikkamasala]

This crash is FAR MORE SEVERE than the 1991 crash. The recession that will follow will be FAR MORE SEVERE. You would be an IDIOT not to think that the impact on an industry which has expanded at break neck speed for the past decade would be FAR MORE SEVERE than last time this happened.

Did you get the bit about being FAR MORE SEVERE?



The situation for Wannabes is HOPELESS.


Great big flashing neon lights HOPELESS.



STOP STOP STOP.




WWW



So ladies and gentlemen that's effectively the end of pprune then.
Wannabes don't start or reply to any posts it's HOPELESS.

[Lightheart]

Every individual should be free to make their own decision without ridicule or judgement. I think you are intelligent enough to know that this is perhaps not the best time to invest in becoming a pilot from scratch. Many are losing their jobs.

Noone is saying forget about about your dream, only consider postponing to a more prudent time.

Speak to your parents, people who love you unconditionaly for they will have your best interests to heart.

It is also true that our outer world is a relfection of our inner world, no matter the general state of the environment.

However, if you do decide to do it, then do it with open eyes and remember the following:

Quote:
"To accuse others for one's own misfortunes is a sign of
want of education. To accuse oneself shows that
one's education has begun. To accuse neither oneself nor others
shows that one's education is complete."

~~ Epictetus

[Re-Heat]

Sorry - I know this is mild thread creep...

However, with the falling oil price the advantages, however slight, are not being passed on so quickly to the consumer in a time when it is probably most needed. The big oil companies are pulling in profits in excess of £4,000,000 and hour at the moment.
Real costs in dollars have fallen - in Sterling, not so. The costs to the consumer are quite competitive, and there is actually little money to be made in retail. The real cash is made upstream in the drilling, extraction and transportation businesses.

You will find that competition in the retailing sector means that price falls at the refiners are passed on very quickly to the consumer: not to mention that the "brands" you see at the pump are less and less owned by the majors themselves these days, and are typically franchises.

[Grass strip basher]

"If you can service the debt for that long, good luck, remember deflation will make that debt bigger over time"

This is the most important comment on this thread for some time.... deflation is a VERY real possibility and if you are heavily in debt as an economy or individual it is nothing short of a disaster..... if deflation takes hold then the upturn may be more than 5 years off.... look at Japan.

Oooops too bearish :oh::oh:

[heli_port]

With a 20% chance of falling prices setting in, we look at ways for savers to beat the bad news

Five tips to beat the danger of deflation (http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/money/investment/article5161359.ece?token=null&offset=0&page=1)

;)

[v6g]

- and how exactly will any of that help someone with a 100k loan spent on flight training?

It won't.

[I'll Be Realistic]

I can comment on one of the negative posters on here.

I remember going to a Gatbash in 2002 where WWW and someother chap told us how bad it was and it will never get better and it was all doom and gloom. Basically, if you wanted his job, forget it, you had no hope and should really look for a length of rope, or another career. 9-11 got rid of airtravel for ever.

Then I sat at the same table as him and heard it all again for 2 hrs.

No offence WWW, and you are a nice guy to chat too, but stop being so negative. It will return, air travel will increase, older pliots will retire, RAF will reduce the number availabel to the civilian market, airlines will sponsor less as they have less cash to spend on that, as they need it for capital for aircraft etc etc.

Currently banks are holding on to cash. They HAVE to lend money to make money, and it will come to the point when the suddenly release all the money again. Just look at the USA.

It may not be good now, but if you wait for the boom to train, you will miss it, like so many have. Then airlines will look to reduce training time / costs with the MPL, and we will be back to the time of 2005/6 Then it will go bust again - probably over a spike in oil prices.

Its a cycle. Get over it boys and girls. Just choose if and when you are going to get on

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

At the time Sabena and Swiss had gone bust and Virgin and MyTravel were losing pilots. It wasn't a good time to be a Wannabe. Glad I got that message across ;)


You are right though. Things will come back and it is a cycle. I look forward very much to the upswing.

WWW

[chrisbl]

It will take a while.

71 000 jobs lot in the construction industry this year before the latest announcements with the forecast for house building losing 150,000 of its 300,000 workers.

As we all know, housing is the underpinning for a lot of lending.
The value of housing is falling and with deflation, the size of any debt will increase.

Deflation could also lead to falling salaries. We want wage increses when inflation increases so why not reductions when we have deflation. It has to go both ways.

So any borrowings which require earnings to pay them off get greater.

Deflation mkes it harder to lend thats why the interest rates will fall to try and avoid deflation but they can only go so low.

Bad news indeed.

[eikido]

Here is a guy with 3015TT and 560 hours on A320 and can't find a job.

http://www.pprune.org/terms-endearment/351470-whos-looking-320-fo.html

But then again, airlines will hire someone with 200h over 3015h :}

Damn I'm glad I took this thread and WWW for serious :eek:

Eikido

[heli_port]

- and how exactly will any of that help someone with a 100k loan spent on flight training?

It won't.

If you think anything written on this forum will help someone with a 100k loan then you're sadly mistaken!

It won't. :=

[Flying Squid]

I suggest the guy has a gander at Gulfair....they have 50 FO positions available in Bahrain on the A320..... nice furnished apartment provided by the company, long term contracts, good pay and copeous other benefits available. Someone with over 3000 hrs TT, 500 of which on the A320 will walk straight in with them so forgive me for sounding somewhat unsympathetic and generally a miserable bastard, im really not! :E. I know many many other people in the middle of their training that would give their right arm to be in that position given current events!

[Flying Squid]

P.S A further scrap of info to ponder.....

Mrs Flying Squid was at a charity dinner last night and ended up chatting to another guy on her table who worked for HSBC.....turns out he's the man the organises CTC's loans (not Cabair's or Oxford's) and according to him the PSL scheme has a £50 million budget which has been cut completely for a minimum of 5 years. So....no more PSL's for a while! HSBC have clearly lost their confidence in the industry aswell! :{

[smith]

71,000 jobs lost in construction, 150,000 builders jobs to go, unemployment to reach 2,000,000 by Christmas.

On the plus side my local paper carried an ad saying that Mrs McGilvary of 28 Acacia Avenue requires a woman in three mornings a week! Its not all bad folks.:D

[Rod Wren]

I seem to remember, WWW, that was just the time that I launched the CTC cadet scheme, and all the cadets of that era got jobs. Were you as confident in your predictions of doom and gloom then as you are now?

Certainly we are in an economic downturn. Undoubtedly it is really tough for those graduating from flight training today. It would be wise for anyone contemplating starting out now to consider the potential downside. However, nobody really knows how deep and long this recession will be and how the aviation industry will be affected. None of the previous recessions provide a good model on which to base predictions; the 2002 airline industry recession had completely different causes, and the industry in the early 90s was totally different to today's; for example, no low cost carriers increasing passenger numbers by 19% (Ryanair) and 17.8% (easyJet) when there is supposed to be a downturn.

The truth is that we have been through a period of boom hiring (a so-called pilot shortage), and we are undoubtedly in a period of jobs being thin on the ground (and an excess of pilots). But there are jobs out there, and someday (I don't know when) the industry will be back on its relentless growth. To be really frank, the worldwide pilot training industry could not produce the numbers of additional pilots that many 'experts' were forecasting as recently as 6 months ago that the industry would require. The recession is going to be tough for individuals, for employers and for the training industry. Those with a long view will be focused on surviving the recession and be poised for the inevitable upturn when it does come.

Should you put off going into training? Its a personal decision. If you do start out now, do so with the understanding that it might be a difficult employment market when you graduate and as a graduate you will not be top of the employers' shopping list. But don't let a naysayer stop you if you have considered the downside.

WWW have you considered that some people might find this a very convenient time to train? What are they going to do as an alternative; get a job in banking? :)

There is always room on this forum for a broad spectrum of opinions; surely it is not acceptable to insult others just because their opinions do not coincide with your own?

[student88]

WWW have you considered that some people might find this a very convenient time to train? What are they going to do as an alternative; get a job in banking? http://static.pprune.org/images/smilies/smile.gif

So there's nothing more to life than a job in banking or training to become a pilot? How convenient. Come on, it's easy for someone who's spent 21 years in the air force and made buckets of cash from OAT and CTC to send someone who they've never met off to an uncertain future! Would you let your son/daughter embark upon flight training tomorrow? (assuming you were average Joe public).

[Aerospace101]

If you do start out now, do so with the understanding that it might be a difficult employment market when you graduate and as a graduate you will not be top of the employers' shopping list

Rod, why is your quote not in last months flyer/pilot magazine along side all the other CEOs of flight training schools predicting hiring booms and spouting marketing spin!?

:D

[student88]

..because there's some truth in what he said. Truth doesnt sell fATPL courses.

[PosClimb]

I seem to remember, WWW, that was just the time that I launched the CTC cadet scheme, and all the cadets of that era got jobs. Were you as confident in your predictions of doom and gloom then as you are now?

Certainly we are in an economic downturn. Undoubtedly it is really tough for those graduating from flight training today. It would be wise for anyone contemplating starting out now to consider the potential downside. However, nobody really knows how deep and long this recession will be and how the aviation industry will be affected. None of the previous recessions provide a good model on which to base predictions; the 2002 airline industry recession had completely different causes, and the industry in the early 90s was totally different to today's; for example, no low cost carriers increasing passenger numbers by 19% (Ryanair) and 17.8% (easyJet) when there is supposed to be a downturn.

The truth is that we have been through a period of boom hiring (a so-called pilot shortage), and we are undoubtedly in a period of jobs being thin on the ground (and an excess of pilots). But there are jobs out there, and someday (I don't know when) the industry will be back on its relentless growth. To be really frank, the worldwide pilot training industry could not produce the numbers of additional pilots that many 'experts' were forecasting as recently as 6 months ago that the industry would require. The recession is going to be tough for individuals, for employers and for the training industry. Those with a long view will be focused on surviving the recession and be poised for the inevitable upturn when it does come.

Should you put off going into training? Its a personal decision. If you do start out now, do so with the understanding that it might be a difficult employment market when you graduate and as a graduate you will not be top of the employers' shopping list. But don't let a naysayer stop you if you have considered the downside.

WWW have you considered that some people might find this a very convenient time to train? What are they going to do as an alternative; get a job in banking? http://static.pprune.org/images/smilies/smile.gif

There is always room on this forum for a broad spectrum of opinions; surely it is not acceptable to insult others just because their opinions do not coincide with your own?
Substitute the phrase "flight training" for "buying real-estate" and what you have above is the exact same word-for-word spin used by Real Estate lobby in the United States right after the bubble started to pop a couple years ago.

It's almost uncanny how the Flight Training Industry and the Real Estate Industry operate on the same wave length and use the same sort of language.

They've even got their own set of paid "experts" who make great "forecasts", all pointing to a rosy future.

Remember how right after the US housing bubble broke the same "experts" that were saying housing would go up forever started staying that the bottom is right around the corner and recovery is only a few months a way?

How many years ago was that now? Where is US real estate today? Years later it's still going down...

I'm still waiting for the flight training industry to use the term "soft landing"... that would seem a good phrase.

[32SQDN]

On the plus side my local paper carried an ad saying that Mrs McGilvary of 28 Acacia Avenue requires a woman in three mornings a week! Its not all bad folks.:D

.................I hope you got Mrs McGilvary's permission to publish her ad in the public domain!!! :rolleyes: :)

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Rod, thanks for contributing. I don't want to insult anyone but I do succumb to exasperation on occasion. There are waves of wannabes out there who simply don't understand a recession or the history of the airline business and they hurl themselves at it with almost reckless levels of research. It is to this audience that I am primarily speaking.

Anyone whose done a bit of research, knows a bit about the world and knows how the industry has fared in past decades gets nothing more than my best wishes for their training.

Your point about this being a good time for some people to train is one I made some months ago. I pointed out that in the last recession the flying training industry was very grateful for the people who were spending their redundancy cheque on following their long held dream of career switching. This will happen again. Perhaps it will be even more marked than last time because recently so much of flying training has been funded by unsecured lending or equity release.

As I type the president of the European Central Bank is on Sky News saying how we are confronted by the worst economic situation in 60 years.

Wannabes can take little comfort by the increasing passenger loads from Ryanair or easyJet. In the latters case they bought GB Airways in February and got all their pax. In both cases virtually all those extra passengers came at the expense of other airlines going bust or reducing operations. For example both companies have been able to put over 30 aircraft into Italy over the past 12 months as Alitalia reduces flights and people avoid them for fear of them going bust. It makes sense for Italian wannabes be hired for those roles despite the companies being Irish or British.

Rod, you know that low time newly qualified pilots have a limited shelf life. A year of fruitless job hunting and minimum hours to keep their rating current will put them in a very rusty position to pass a sim assessment or type rating course. Therefore it is critically important NOT to complete training into a stagnant market. Ticking along market, booming market, slowing market, normal market all these are fine. Just focus on avoiding the stagnant market.

I stand by my belief, as expressed in 2001/2, that we are now in a stagnant market and this is unlikely to be over for 2 years. As such I wouldn't let my kids start flying training beyond a PPL in 2009.

Its just an opinion. Unfortunately its an opinion that the trade publications find difficult to express due to their reliance on FTO advertising. So it gets aired and discussed here because Wannabes are massively interested in it.

I look forward to writing once more, as I did in 2005, that we are "entering a golden age for wannabes". When jobs were in abundance and 190hr self sponsored type rating guys were getting B737 FO job offers before they finished their course with GECAT.


WWW

[heli_port]

well said www :D

[a797]

I know ive disagreed with WWW in the past, but he speaks the truth. I have personal friends who have finished training in the past 6 months and have not been able to get a single interview. Most have gone back to their old jobs (if they were able to) to start paying back their massive bank loans.

What i would suggest to anyone who absolutely MUST START TRAINING FOR THEIR DREAM JOB NOW!!, is wait until at least mid 2009 to start slowly taking flights towards their ppl. Then in 2010 take their time to really learn the ATPL exams and by late 2010/early 2011 be in a position to commence CPL/IR training on first signs of the market recovering.

Anyone starting training now towards a fast track integrated type 0-atpl course is not just 'following the dream', theyre just being stupid. The world is in crisis, and the airline industry is in crisis, and you personally will most likely be in a financial crisis soon if you start training now.

Wake up people.

[Aerospace101]

I found this computer flight simulator game on the CTC website

Have a go and see if you have the aptitude to be an airline pilot

CTC Wings (http://www.landyourairlinecareer.co.nz/)

Not sure if this counts as FTO marketing spin tho....

[flightlevel1985]

Golly thats quite addictive lol :E

[clear prop!!!]

On the subject of upturns, downturns and CTC..

Has anyone any statistics as to the number of CTC wings cadets who are getting placements at the end of their course with their 60k bond?

The CTC wings thread reads a bit like lambs to slaughter at the moment.

Lambs who have not read the bit which says, 'should we be unable to place you for any reason...'

I genuinely hope that their enthusiasm is not misplaced in the current climate/upturn/downturn or whatever.

[flightlevel1985]

Having not read the CTC thread, what does it say about failure to provide a placement ?

[clear prop!!!]

To quote the CTC we site..

'The purpose of this bond is to provide security to APL during training in the event that we are unable to place you with a partner Airline for whatever reason'

The 'whatever' bit is a catch all get out if you ask me!

[flightlevel1985]

The "providing security" part, does this mean financial help or what ? Not quite sure how the CTC bonds work, do they start repayment straight after training or once a placement is found ?

[clear prop!!!]

All is explained (clearly to give them their due), on the CTC web site under 'financial'.

The point of my post was to see if anyone knew if the cadets who are (rightly) getting so excited about starting there courses, are doing so against a history of 100% placement from recent courses, given the current climate.

The marketing hype gives the impression that it's a shoe in, but is it just that easy right now?...I doubt it, but,.. I my be wrong!

I know my own company won't look at anyone under 1000hrs right now, and as last I heard, we ain't even thinking about looking.

[Flying Squid]

That CTC game is a bit addictive.......that's the closest I'll be getting to a LHS for many years to come!!! :sad:
Haven't read the CTC thread although I did meet up with an old freind who went through CTC and landed well and truly on their feet at the end....aparantly her airline has just released some of their CTC cadets as have squeezyjet :eek:

[R/E]

On the plus side my local paper carried an ad saying that Mrs McGilvary of 28 Acacia Avenue requires a woman in three mornings a week! Its not all bad folks

How about the mistress of 22 Acacia Avenue?

[student88]

http://http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7739026.stm

..but it doesnt matter because it's your dream and you can fly an aircraft without any engines! It'll fly on determination alone.

Wow, I've made myself feel sick

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Wrote Rod Wren of CTC:

I seem to remember, WWW, that was just the time that I launched the CTC cadet scheme, and all the cadets of that era got jobs. Were you as confident in your predictions of doom and gloom then as you are now?

Yes Rod. I am.


This is a major recession.

WWW

[Flying Squid]

When all's said and done every single FTO is there for one reason and one reason only....to make money! So they will always be out to sell as many courses as possible. Morality hasn't really got anything to do with it, they are a business and that's that.

Every FTO will be looking at ways to survive these pants coming months rather than thinking about how they can place students in jobs.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Ok. But here's where morality, marketing, business, courses, wannabes, reality and free speech meet.

Its often not been pretty..

WWW:\

[Flying Squid]

Apologies WWW, hadn't seen the rest of your post before replying, hence the edit.

As I said, every FTO is now worrying about survival. I guess CTC are stuck between a moral obligation not to :mad: anyone over but at the same time making sure that they're still around in a year's time.

The only benefit to students at the moment is that training costs should start to come down a bit but that's only likely to favour those who already have the funds in place to do it.

[student88]

I guess the future reduction in training costs is much like the reduction in the cost of petrol. Yes, they should come down but they probably wont!

As long as ill informed men and women pursue flight training there will always be a supply to match demand, whatever the price.

[ChrisLKKB]

You could save yourself £1500 on a £70K course now. That'll make all the difference :rolleyes:

[32SQDN]

WWW, using that same argument, are you suggesting that Airlines stop flying and advise potential customers not to fly as they are already too indebted and probably don't really need to fly anyway!



...........the morality of it all!!!

[JB007]

Nice one!

I don't jump on the doom and gloom shenanigans, been here before, but to all wannabes, curb the enthusiasm and put the brakes on for 2 years at least...do not listen to flying school marketing spin...I just despair...!!

Lots more to come commercially in the UK between now and May 2009, and I don't think it'll be good!

...local paper carried an ad saying that Mrs McGilvary of 28 Acacia Avenue requires a woman in three mornings a week!

Do you think Mrs McGilvary is fussy about it been a woman?! Send her my CV anyway...

[biaeghh]

JB007,

Whilst not been affilated to a training organisation, I have yet to see any posts from any training school on here defending their corner from the continuing patronising nonsense spouted by yourself and the welsh wizard. Please change your condescending attitude to the people who might actually want a career in aviation. One would assume these people do have a degree of common sense and understand the economic crisis we are in at the moment. Itf the schools do react all I can see is their marketing budgets been pulled and in the end the likes of yourself and WWW will be preaching sermons to each other.

WWW,

Reference my last post, I have never threatened anyone before and in my advanced years am not going to start now, so grow up.
With regards to your flying experience you stated it was all military and your current training capt that thought you all you know!!!! does this mean you are still in the raf
as my limited understanding would suggest you need to convert your military licence to a professional licence therefore using an fto????

Finally for your info RYR are basing two more 737's at eghh and no not for parking purposes either!!!

[Lurking123]

biaeghh, I wouldn't bother arguing with the self-appointed prophets of doom.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

biaeghh - can you please clear up the mystery of what you do for a living at Bournemouth airport? Is it *something* connected to the flying training industry? Or are you really an unemployed CPL/IR as you list in your profile?
From you posting history it seems so but its hard to figure out..

Nearly half your total posts have been on this thread and most of them have been sniping at my views. Do you want to call me and get it off your chest? You might feel better.


WWW

[Another TD]

WWW you are the best!! Keep it up I love it when the miserable old gits get upset ,god knows i've meet a few in my time.

[JB007]

...the continuing patronising nonsense spouted by yourself and the welsh wizard.

Welsh Wizard???!! A tad lame..my patronising nonsense is 20 years UK airline experience and just entering my 3rd recession/industry disaster. If you're unemployed as per your profile, you'll appreciate the fact it isn't nonsense!

Please change your condescending attitude to the people who might actually want a career in aviation.

The guidance is there to see if they want that career. If it comes across as condescending, well...tough! I finished my ATPL exams in Aug 2001. What happend in Sep 2001 is why I have invested in slip-on shoes for work! I've trained in a market place such as the present day, admittedly without the financial implications. I'm happy to tell my story because it worked and I was never unemployed and haven't been...yet! If I am made redundant in 2009, well that's just more bad news for you as well as me!

So, come on, what's your story?! PM if you like...

[Artie Fufkin]

.... still arguing!?! :eek:

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Back on topic...

Germany has clung steadfastly to budget orthodoxy but the downturn has now begun to engulf Europe's biggest economy with shocking speed. The Bundesbank is now expecting the worst recession since the terrible year of 1949, according to Deutsche Press Agentur.

Howard Archer, Europe economist at Global Insight, said the blizzard of dire data from the eurozone now points to a severe manufacturing slump. "Output, total orders, exports orders all contracted at record rates in November, which was alarming," he said.

The broad IFO index of German confidence fell to the lowest since 1993 in November, but it was the unprecedented slide in the expectations index that most worried economists.

"This is extremely bad, it's even worse than the dog days of early 1970s," Julian Callow, Europe economist at Barclays Capital. "German exports to the US, UK, Spain, and Italy have all collapsed, and the next shoe yet to drop is Eastern Europe," he said. Latvia has joined the queue waiting for an IMF bail-out, while Russia devalued the rouble again yesterday.


We've seen nothing yet. There is absolutely no way that we can avoid some major household name airlines going bust in 2009/10.

This is going to be much worse than 1990/91.


WWW

[tupues]

What, the economys looking crap? Airlines could be in trouble? Really? I'm not sure people realise! Quick, I think we need more copy/paste stories from news websites!

[Grass strip basher]

and how exactly tupues did you post add more to the debate than WWW? You just looked like a kn*b (maybe that was your intention).

Had an interesting meeting with our internal travel folks today who are busy renegotiating deals with the airlines (top customer of several).... aparently they are ****ting themselves as business travel is/will fall off a cliff.

Everyone going to economy only for shorthaul and you have to have a darned good reason to travel longhaul.... as WWW has said the oil price is now a side show.:oh:

[ix_touring]

biaeghh wrote:


...Please change your condescending attitude to the people who might actually want a career in aviation. One would assume these people do have a degree of common sense and understand the economic crisis we are in at the moment.


Might I direct you to my thread yesterday... (relevant bit cut and pasted to save you looking):

I was recently in my bank in Windsor and happened to overhear a young woman asking about loans for flight training; a quick chat later I gleamed she was on an offer from CTC, thought Oxford was the best and didn't like to read PPRuNe as its too negative, didn't know about CTC/Easy's large hold pool etc....

Again, I draw your attention to your own post:

One would assume these people do have a degree of common sense and understand the economic crisis we are in at the moment.

One would assume... but you'd be wrong.

iX


PS, tupues, enough cut and past for you ;-)

[biaeghh]

IX,

Thanks for all the cutting and pasting...it would take me a while to trawl through this thread and look up the relevant posts.

WWW

Perhaps you could indulge me with answers to the questions.

Regards my position, can't say too much other that i have a suitable perch at BIA, where i have witnessed the comings and goings of a number of companies, and have witnessed a number of people been adversley affected.

[Re-Heat]

Why don't you click on his profile button?

[dwshimoda]

Why don't you click on his profile button?

Yep - bang on - or if you've been around long enough, you'd also know who he works for, have seen his posts over the years that aren't just on this thread, and therefore why he is worth listening to.

However, if you are too blind (or don't want to) see...

[Artie Fufkin]

I was recently in my bank in Windsor and happened to overhear a young woman asking about loans for flight training; a quick chat later I gleamed she was on an offer from CTC, thought Oxford was the best and didn't like to read PPRuNe as its too negative, didn't know about CTC/Easy's large hold pool etc....says it all guys, your target audience has long since logged off.

As Tupues says, maybe if you cut & paste just one more story of economic doom like its some underground news story they'll all start to listen? You can lead a horse to water...

[biaeghh]

I have not looked at anyone's profile, I am not sure whether I am too lazy, too busy or maybe cos i am not interested.

Look on the bright side christmas is coming!!

[a797]

The only reason oil is a sideshow now is because it costs 50 dollars a barrell. If it was still costing 147 O'Learys predicition of 4 European airlines would have probably already come to pass.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

My earlier contention that oil was a sideshow was based on the fact that:


1) At $147 the fuel only accounted for about £23 on a typical European flight. Its doubling only £12. Probably less than the car park fee went up this year.

2) There was a recession coming which will result in people not travelling AT ANY PRICE.

3) Oil was a bubble that would do what bubbles always do (though shrinking by 2/3rds in 3 months is way beyond what I thought would happen).


At the lower end of the market airlines are going to be stuffed by people just not travelling. At the upper end of the market the airlines are going to be stuffed by people just travelling economy.

In general airlines are stuffed. Even the freight boys.


WWW

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

The usual suspects who whine about cut n' paste always ignore the posts where primary and secondary data are posted but what the hell:



http://www.dryships.com/graphics/chart1.jpg


Thats is a cliff that just got fell off.



Here's why it matters;

The Baltic Dry Index is a daily average of prices to ship raw materials. It represents the cost paid by an end user to have a shipping company transport raw materials across seas on the Baltic Exchange, the global marketplace for brokering shipping contracts. The Baltic Exchange is similar to the New York Merc in that it is a medium for buyers and sellers of contracts and forward agreements (futures) for delivery of dry bulk cargo.

The Baltic is owned and operated by the member buyers and sellers. The exchange maintains prices on several routes for different cargoes and then publishes its own index, the BDI, as a summary of the entire dry bulk shipping market. This index can be used as an overall economic indicator as it shows where end prices are heading for items that use the raw materials that are shipped in dry bulk.

The BDI is one of the purest leading indicators of economic activity. It measures the demand to move raw materials and precursors to production, as well as the supply of ships available to move this cargo. Consumer spending and other economic indicators are backward looking, meaning they examine what has already occurred. The BDI offers a real time glimpse at global raw material and infrastructure demand.

Unlike stock and commodities markets, the Baltic Dry Index is totally devoid of speculative players. The trading is limited only to the member companies, and the only relevant parties securing contracts are those who have actual cargo to move and those who have the ships to move it.





Things are happening now which haven't happened for 50+ years. Pilots will be flipping burgers by next Christmas. I have retained pretty good burger flipping skills thankfully.

Unemployment at 3 million is a certainty. Its whether we breach 4 million which interests me. I give it a 50:50 chance.

Protect yourself.


WWW

[MIKECR]

WWW,

Oil was never a sideshow. The oil price spike earlier this year claimed more victims than any previous recession or even Sept 11th ever did(the data is there for those who wish to google it). More airlines fell as a result of unsustainable fuel costs than could have been possibly predicted. Fuel hedging will do nothing to alevaite those problems over the coming year. Those are the facts. 'Yes' the recession will claim its expected toll in 2009, but the downfall might have been an awful lot less painless, minus obsene fuel costs.

And 'flipping burgers', as you repeatedly suggest, is patronising and condescending. There are thousands of good people(pilots included) out there that are facing unemployment and extremely tough times this xmas and next year. They dont have the luxury of an Ezy pilots salary coming in.

[v6g]

Wee Weasley Welshman,

The issue of what role the oil price has played in the economic downturn is the one point I disagree with you on in your general prognosis. Whilst I agree that the major driver of the downturn in the UK specifically has been the credit crunch and the subsequent housing market crash, the credit crunch itself on a global scale (caused by American mortgage defaults) was caused by the oil price.

What other reason can explain why the first neighbourhoods in American cities to experience housing price falls were the exurbs (where lifestyles have by far the heaviest reliance on cheap fuel), followed by the suburbs? As the crash has played out, these have also been the areas that have been hit the hardest. All this points to the credit crunch being an effect, not the primary cause.

One way to prove or disprove this theory will be to observe how the regional property markets in the US behave once the effects of $50 oil is taken into account. Although it's probably too early to tell yet, since oil price variations historically take 12 months to filter through.

Of course, another factor that led to the housing crunch was the rising interest rate (and irresponsibly-arranged mortgages resetting to unaffordable levels). But the reason base rates were increased was to combat rising inflation - again brought about by the oil price.

Interesting point about the Baltic Dry

[Re-Heat]

Southern comfort - FT.com
Published: November 27 2008 09:08 | Last updated: November 27 2008 11:35

A climber scaling a rock-face needs three points of contact to make progress. China’s economic ascent, say officials, will be assured if it maintains a trio of major state-owned airlines.

That commitment made sense on paper six years ago, when the government forcibly consolidated a fragmented industry. Between them, the three carved up the Chinese mainland: China Southern in Guangzhou, China Eastern in Shanghai, and Air China – the intercontinental flag carrier – in Beijing. But the economic contraction, and the wretched state of balance sheets, should be forcing a rethink.

An industry set up for growth – in staffing, order books and capital structure – is now experiencing the opposite. Fuel surcharges have priced out travellers who had just started to embrace air travel as a viable alternative to road or rail. Air traffic in China rose 2.4 per cent in the first ten months to 160m passengers, according to the aviation regulator – well short of the anticipated 14 per cent surge. The three national champs have lost over four-fifths of their market capitalisations this year.

China Eastern, the weakest carrier, with 15 times more debt than equity, has suspended its shares while it holds out for state aid. China Southern announced late on Wednesday that it had secured a Rmb3bn ($440m) capital injection. Handy, but barely enough to cover one-tenth of the bank loans and aircraft leasing obligations it faces next year.

The state can continue to tweak taxes and ignore unpaid landing fees. But more radical action is needed. As cross-border consolidation is not an option – like America, China limits foreign ownership of carriers to 25 per cent for a single shareholder, and 49 per cent in aggregate – the answers must come from within.

Li Jiaxiang, former chairman of Air China, now head of the industry regulator, has repeatedly pushed for a megalithic Chinese airline to match Delta-Northwest. Soon, he may find that officials start to listen.



Quick point on Baltic Dry - looks disasterous, and certainly is for some shippers. Point is that it measures short-term spot market charters. In a recession, these marginal charters evaporate, and shippers rely on the long-term contracts already agreed. It is not a measure of total demand, but marginal demand, so careful what conclusions you draw. (i.e. long periods of low indices would be a disaster for everyone - it is a disaster for some only at the moment).

[Lost man standing]

WWW is right. Oil price was at worst the trigger, not the cause.

The cause was twofold: cheap credit extended to people who couldn't afford it even when it was still cheap, and a housing bubble.

The banks screwed up the risk spreading when they valued the loans too highly, and in the process they made such complicated arrangements that it was impossible to judge who actually was at risk. Therefore no-one knew whether any debt-based assets owned by a company would be defaulted on. Therefore suddenly banks didn't know whether other banks could cover their debts, so stopped lending to each other. This was bound to happen as soon as there was any extra pressure on home-owners' budgets, like oil price increases, so those struggling most defaulted.

The banks had to stop giving the cheap credit, and spooked the housing market which burst the bubble, worsening the whole problem by making sure that most of those bad loans would not be recovered by the sale of the house on which they were secured, as they were in negative equity.

This graph gets to the heart of the issue.

http://www.lesjones.com/www/images/posts/united_states-600x450.png

[SilveR5]

WWW


Unlike stock and commodities markets, the Baltic Dry Index is totally devoid of speculative players.


This index can be used as an overall economic indicator as it shows where end prices are heading for items that use the raw materials that are shipped in dry bulk.

I totally agree..absolutely correct evidence-base!

BUT ... this is only for today and tomorrow...& it's not an accurate indicator for what could happen on the long run


Cheers

[ChrisLKKB]

today's cut back are tomorrow's shortages and all that :p

(but tomorrow is a long way off I suspect).

[SilveR5]

today's cut back are tomorrow's shortages


Do you mean that we will never get over it???!

I would perfer saying: today's cut back plus today's supply = limiting tomorrow's shortages (the least)!

...and so on..bit by bit until the sum is shifting to the positive side of the scale.

Well it's really impossible to tell how/when the mess is gonna end up...but actually it's not that type of endless vicious circle...it will come to break..just let's save the dimes & be patient folks!!

Thank god we are all here in just a rumour's network...talking to each other only... or otherwise we will always keep it on the negative side and never get out of hell! :ugh:

Good luck

[Re-Heat]

BMI British Midland, the second biggest airline operating at London Heathrow, has warned employees it will suffer the largest loss in its history this year.

Nigel Turner, chief executive, has told staff the group had to restructure as it seeks "to ride out what is probably the worst crisis the aviation industry has faced".

He warned the airline, which is shortly to be taken over by Germany's Lufthansa, expected to remain in loss in 2009 despite "further aggressive action on costs".

BMI would be "in intensive care for some considerable time", he said.

The disclosure of the rapid deterioration in the group's finances comes only four weeks after Lufthansa disclosed that Sir Michael Bishop, BMI chairman, had decided to exercise his option, agreed in a deal struck nine years ago, to force the German carrier to take over his majority stake.

Lufthansa, which already owns a stake of 30 per cent minus one share, will pay about €400m (£334m) for Sir Michael's stake of 50 per cent plus one share. The remaining 20 per cent stake in the lossmaking group is held by SAS Scandinavian Airlines, which also wants to dispose of its holding.

In a memorandum to the group's 5,000 staff, Mr Turner said: "Our financial results this year will produce the largest loss we have ever recorded by a considerable margin." BMI made an operating loss of £29m in 2001 and a pre-tax loss of £19.6m in 2002.

He said: "The combination of falling consumer demand and increases to costs in areas wholly outside of our control, like airport charges, makes our task extremely difficult." A previous agreement under which Lufthansa and SAS carried the bulk of BMI losses expired at the end of 2007.

Mr Turner also warned employees they should expect little relief from the Lufthansa takeover, which is expected to be completed in mid-January.

"Be under no illusions, they will not be prepared to sit back and watch us lose money," he said. "They will, and do, expect us to reshape the business to remove unprofitable flying to the greatest extent possible."

Mr Turner said BMI would freeze pay in 2010 and the directors would have no pay increase in 2009.

The airline would honour the terms of its present three-year pay deal, which included an increase of inflation plus half of 1 per cent in 2009, which would add costs of £7m next year and which the group could not afford, he said.

The airline was planning to cut capacity in its BMIbaby low-cost subsidiary by about 15 per cent next summer. It is cutting the fleet from 20 to 17 by returning aircraft at the end of their leases.

Lufthansa said earlier this month it would consider disposing of the BMIbaby business next year.

[heli_port]

Darling’s ‘giveaway’ will bypass the middle classeFamilies will find themselves up to £1,500 worse off than when Labour came to power despite its boasts of a £20 billion tax giveaway in last week’s pre-budget report.

We are still worse off than in 1997 (http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/money/tax/article5257098.ece)

Ryanair in new Aer Lingus offer

The budget airline Ryanair is to make a fresh takeover offer for the Irish carrier Aer Lingus.
BBC NEWS | Business | Ryanair in new Aer Lingus offer (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7757971.stm)

http://www.mysmiley.net/imgs/smile/indifferent/indifferent0028.gif (http://www.mysmiley.net/freesmiley.php?smiley=indifferent/indifferent0028.gif)

[32SQDN]

Interview with Maurice Flannigan - Exec Vice Chairman of Emirates on Radio 5 live Wake up to Money programme this morning.

His view is that the reduction in the price of oil will allow carriers to reduce their prices and get more pax on-board which in turn will bring back profitability.

BBC - Radio - Podcasts - Wake Up To Money (http://www.bbc.co.uk/radio/podcasts/money/)

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Japanese car sales have plummeted at a pace not seen since the bleak economic days of the early 1970s. Confirming fears that Japan has crashed into its sharpest downturn since the Second World War, November sales of cars, lorries and buses plunged by 27.3 per cent from the previous year.

Big big numbers. Still - oils down to under $48 a barrel this morning so everything will be fine..


WWW

[XXPLOD]

WWW is right.

The oil price spike was simply a large splash of petrol on the flickering fire that is the global credit crisis/recession. For some of the small operators, the flash of fire was enough to finish them off.

A broad brush statement I know, but it's going to get worse before it gets any better.

[Grass strip basher]

There is also a flip side to low oil prices... Gulf carriers have seen huge expansion in recent years and with a breakeven oil price for the economy in the UAE at c$40 there is actually an acute shortage of liquidity in Gulf banking markets now. You can expect the expansion of Gulf airlines to slow considerably over the next 12-18 months..... another source of recruitment is going to dry up.... :ugh::ugh:

Also now talk of a BS/Quantas merger.... = more job losses and experienced pilots in the queue ahead of wanabees.

You really would need to get you head examined to do an integrated course now.

[clear prop!!!]

On one side the 'experts' on this site were predicting oil at $200 by Xmas ..and, on the other oil price has no influence whatsoever!! (something which will be laughed at by Airlines which hedged).

Perhaps the Wannabes forum should get back to it's roots, and the wannabe 'experts' should leave their sometimes infantile interpretations of National press coverage where it belongs!

Anyone can regurgitate news coverage, but it would be a much more impressive member/moderator or whatever, who could point others in a positive direction towards the jobs which still exist or a plan to structure their training accordingly in a POSITIVE manner.

And, Yes, its bad out there but the end of the World is NOT upon us!

I would love to see a REAL economists views on some of the comments made here!!!

Having said all that we have no vacancies here but a number of regionals have,... but hours and contacts are what it's all about right now.

[getoffmycloud]

I think you will find that several people on here are financial experts and give their views free of charge and with no agenda.... you would be surprised who lurks around on here.....

[clear prop!!!]

Very!!!...given that most of them are junior bankers (that's with a 'B' ), or wannabes /pilots with time to read and misinterpret the obvious press hype.

[mrfilbert]

You really would need to get you head examined to do an integrated course now

Blimey, that seems a bit much - surely a Class 1 ought to suffice no matter which training route you take! :ok:

In all seriousness though, blanket statements such as this do little to progress the debate - it may well be your opinion that those thinking of starting on an integrated course need their heads examining, but for every person who blindly wanders into an integrated FTO, credit card in hand, expecting to walk straight into the RHS of a 737 on finishing the course, there are several who have spent months and months weighing up whether or not this is the right time for them to start integrated training and have come to the conclusion that it is. Believe it or not, they are not all wrong.

Incidentally, I don't fall into either group - I'm still weighing things up.

[Re-Heat]

given that most of them are junior bankers (that's with a 'B' )
What an unnecessary and denigrating post, riven with envy and Schadenfreude. Not all of them are "junior", many are not well-off, and most were not involved in this "CDO" malarkly that brought on the credit crisis.

I strongly recall www mentioning that "oil is a sideshow" long before it rose to $150, then fell - even if it was predicted to rise to $200, you miss the point that we were heading towards, and are now in a recession.

I hardly think it inconsistent both to predict the price of a good, and also claim the good is not the most relevant to the discussion - it is a separate point.

This thread serves a specific purpose: those who are uninformed and do not read the media - or perhaps do not realise is applicability to airlines - are the target audience. If you feel you know it all, or that the financial community are all wrong, then feel free to spend you cash or hold you view.

[Re-Heat]

For the record, I don't make predictions, so let me phrase this carefully.

I expect that airlines are now at the bottom of their recession at present. I believe that cutbacks to capacity and delivery delays will serve their purpose in ensuring that some airlines are profitable despite travel having declines to near 1998 level. Fuel prices have abated, and tough discussions with employees and suppliers will allow them to ride the remainder of the bottom of this recession.

I fully expect consumer spending to tank further, but the airlines themselves to be an investment that will hold flat for a while longer - retailers and industrial machinery will be the focus for the next year of depressing financial news.

However, in consideration of all this, I do not know what will happen, nor will I attempt to predict what will happen. I will do as I have always done and position myself to ride the recession out.

What this means for wannabes is: position yourself adequately, and considering that all those new orders are likely to be delayed (while older aircraft are retired), think well about when the upturn in recruiting is likely to be - it will not be just as the economy starts recovering in - say - 2011, but more likely 2014.


Be informed, be educated, don't bet the ranch.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Clear Prop!! wrote:

On one side the 'experts' on this site were predicting oil at $200 by Xmas ..and, on the other oil price has no influence whatsoever!! (something which will be laughed at by Airlines which hedged).

Perhaps the Wannabes forum should get back to it's roots, and the wannabe 'experts' should leave their sometimes infantile interpretations of National press coverage where it belongs!

Anyone can regurgitate news coverage, but it would be a much more impressive member/moderator or whatever, who could point others in a positive direction towards the jobs which still exist or a plan to structure their training accordingly in a POSITIVE manner.


Which experts were those that predicted $200 oil? Wasn't me. Could you post a link back? My recollection is that the OPEC spokesmans comments on $200 oil was posted by someone. I was calling it a bubble and saying it was a sideshow long before it burst.

Of course oil price does matter. But some seemed to believe that the only cloud on the airline horizon was the price of crude rising. When in fact that was a minor headache.

What is infantile and where is regurgitation about showing how something like the Baltic Dry Index has fallen off a cliff? Or pointing to Japanese car sales returning to the dire years of the 1970's in their collapse?

You want me to point people in a positive manner as to job opportunities remaining and training plans that make sense.

There are no jobs. Don't train.

That's all I can honestly say.


WWW

[Airflight69]

Well, i was soon to go integrated but i changed my mind. However i don`t wanna give up on my dream so i`m thinking of going modular, taking it slowly and be ready by 2011-12. That way i can work as well and do lots of hr building. I have the money to go integrated but it is obviously not the rite time to do that. Any advice or criticism?

[smith]

EAAC at Bournemouth went bust a couple of days ago, thats more experienced drivers on the market.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

There are XL B737 Captains who are still job hunting. Its totally grim out there. I'd heard the rumour about EAAC but couldn't confirm it, how many guys did they have these days?

WWW

[clear prop!!!]

Re-Heat...
riven with envy and Schadenfreude

I DON'T THINK SO!!!...I fly a plane for a living and can't think of anything worse than a job in finacial services (junior or otherwise)!!

I think this sums up my issue.

The forum has been hijacked by those with more interest in proving their, sometimes suspect knowledge of the economy and finance, at the expense of how wannabes should...or should not progress. And ....before you hit the roof Re-heat, this is not aimed at you personally!!!

The price of japanese cars, fish, mince or whatever reads more like an ego trip and 'I know more than you' than helpfull advice!

WWW, I did not atribute the $200 oil price prediction to you did I?

WOW! jumpy or what!!!:eek:

It's on the downturn post along with many of the other predictions which a real economist would no doubt drive a bus through!

yes, it's bad, there is no doubt of that.

Jobs (a few), are around, but, as I said, it's contacts and hours right now.

Any jobs are with TP regionals who sadly see those made redundant as mainly over qualified and short term. Best placed right now are 1000hr + instructors.

[Grass strip basher]

So Clear prop cut to the chase.... would you pay for an integrated course right now?.... or do a full time modular course which will put you on the market in 18 months? Or would you sit on your hands and wait a year or so?

You seem to spend most of your time criticising other folks but have to date added very little to the acutal debate and question at hand yourself.

This thread just seems to get your back up all the time.... maybe just don't read it?? Or maybe tell us a little bit about what angle you are viewing the industry from and why so optimistic?? How does a TP operator wanting someone with instructor rating with 1000+ hours (when there are now very few FI jobs around) help a wanabee fresh out of training? Please do share your wisdom...

As has been mentioned before you would be "VERY" surprised at the contacts/experience some posters on this board have...not all are junior bankers and young wanabees.

(P.S. you seem to have it in for economists... have they done you some huge dis-service in the past?? I am not one by the way...)

[JB007]

Just been on a trip with a chap whose girlfriend was an FO at Zoom; still un-employed, in excess of 2000 hours on Boeings, any work is generally outside of the UK.

Ex MD of Zoom UK is (apparantly) starting an airline for Summer 2009, LGW based B737's for the smaller tour ops and hopefully TCX recruitment will help some of these guys out in the new year.

[Re-Heat]

I DON'T THINK SO!!!...I fly a plane for a living and can't think of anything worse than a job in finacial services (junior or otherwise)!!
Well, what do you so have against them that you feel the need to suggest substitution of the "b" in "bankers" for the similarly well-known term?

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Do you not think the TUI/Thompsonfly/First Choice pilots, whom the company are keen to see leave the company now that they are overcrewed, might not be ahead in queue for summer '09 recruitment? Their LPC/OPC won't have expired for a start.

Clear Prop!! - I have to admire your consistency. I recall you saying pretty much exactly the same things here over seven years ago:


http://www.pprune.org/professional-pilot-training-includes-ground-studies/6782-fewer-wannabes.html#post72383

30th September 2001, 02:46 …..WWW, I have to say that this is becoming a little bit tiresome. Every time someone tries to put a positive spin on things or offers a suggestion that this cyclical industry might just remain cyclical …you hijack the thread and pour even more gloom and doom.

You have gone beyond offering advice and have become a complete and utter negative pain in the arse.. It might ‘just’ look like a case of Jack being all right.

Do you not hear what those who have been in the business for at least 10 years longer than your 5 months are telling you on your other doomsday threads? Don’t bother to reply….I, like others have had enough and won’t be here to read your predictable condescending and patronising reply!


I get the message Clear Prop!! you don't like me publishing my view that there is no point training whilst there is no realistic prospect of gaining employment. You wanted me to shut up in Sept 2001 and I didn't then and won't now. Because I was proved right then and very unfortunately I will be proved right now.

Are you still involved with instructing?



WWW

[Jonty]

JB007,

I think your referring to Kiss Flights, more info on that one here:

New Kiss boss Moss quashes Wyatt rumours - Travel Trade Gazette (http://www.ttglive.com/c/portal/layout?p_l_id=61139&CMPI_SHARED_articleId=1264480&CMPI_SHARED_ImageArticleId=1264480&CMPI_SHARED_CommentArticleId=1264480&CMPI_SHARED_ToolsArticleId=1264480&CMPI_SHARED_articleIdRelated=1264480)


Alot of FOs and Captains, for that mater, left TCX to join Zoom. When Zoom UK started the DFO was a senior TCX training captain.

TCX have been recruiting for next summer, between 30 to 50 FOs depending on the expected fleet size. However I think applications have now closed.

Guys, there is alot of uncertainty in the airlines at the moment as to how bad things are going to get, the media is full of negative stuff (just like this thread) but most airlines are showing bookings only slightly down. There are some basket case airlines, but there always was.

I think showing graphs like the Baltic index, house prices and oil just goes to show that we have seen an unsustainable bubble, we are now seeing an unsustainable trough. House prices will dip too low, oil and the Baltic index probably already have, they will all come back up. The economy of panic is not the real economy. The question is how long will it take.

Those in the financial services have been through a rough time, most have friends that have been made redundant or have been themselves, sentiment has been severely damaged. Its not surprising to see the key financial indicators reflect this.

I have no idea where things will end up, or how bad it will get. However I don't think it will get as bad as the indications show, just as it was never as good as the indications wanted it to be in 07/08.

[JB007]

Flightline @ Southend have gone into administration.

[Sean Dillon]

Do you not think the TUI/Thompsonfly/First Choice pilots, whom the company are keen to see leave the company now that they are overcrewed, might not be ahead in queue for summer '09 recruitment? Their LPC/OPC won't have expired for a start.

Despite a deal done between BALPA and Da Management to carry the excess pilots, there are a lot of guys with mates in TCA!! No B757/B767 or A320/1 type rating, don't waste time applying...

TCX have been recruiting for next summer, between 30 to 50 FOs depending on the expected fleet size. However I think applications have now closed.

External applications have never opened. Cadets only have been recruited so far, type rated pilots sometime in the new year...

[SkyCamMK]

Take your time, get the experience and some real hours, take care to get trained to the right level to make your hour building really count. Beware the 3 year time limit for exams and IR because even if you get the IR in time to extend your exams to 7 years validity it may not be easy to get the hours etc for the full ATPL, Enjoy flying and learning - it is worthwhile, fun. exciting but can sometimes be converted to a repetitive procedural form of employment and you may not find this applies to you until you are in the RHS wishing you could do more than 30 deg bank and follow the checks and routines before the inevitable quick turnaraound whilst tired and maybe even stressed! The most fun in flying is not always in a big flying bus! Follow your dream but take care what you wish for.. I love my light aircraft flying, have never been ATPL but wanted to be for a long time. My FI work and private flying now provides the necessary fix... I love IMC and aeros too this is the most fun you can have without the huge investment with rewards that can only be estimated and not properly known until it might be too late?

PS My biggest love was aerial photography but there is not enough that I can get to do in the current climate for building/development.

[glazierflyer]

I have saved hard for three years to begin modular training part time. My target was to start that in 2009, but After everything that has unfolded over the last 12 months or so - will I stick to my plan? .....no fricken way - and I normally go about things on impulse, believing everthing will be fine.
My decision came about after some serious thought - and admitting to myself that I would be simply wasting my money, was very, very hard. After all, how dare a recession get in the way of my dream???
There will always be the odd low houred pilot getting through, and good luck to everyone - but im educated enough to work out that a market saturated with 2000 hr+ candidates is no place for a low hour wanabee.
WWW knows what he is talking about - I see the effects of this recession around me everyday, through my competitors and friends in the building trade, and it looks very uncertain. I believe his motives are only to help prevent younger wanabees making life difficult for themselves - he certainly confirmed points I was already concerned about.
However, good luck to all other wanabees - when it all boils down, we are only here for one reason. I will make the RHS one day - but its not the end of the world if I have to wait a bit longer!

[Grass strip basher]

My god a wanabee that isn't blind to the realities of the world! :eek:
Best decision you will probably ever make. But don't give up... there is a lot of fun to be had gliding/microlights/GA over the next 2-3 years till things start to turnaround.... some would even call that "proper flying".

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

My God, the SMMT have just released the car sales figures for Nov 08:

* New car registrations fell 36.8% in November to 100,333 units.



Makes Japans fall seem small. This sort of cliff fall wasn't seen in the last recession suggesting things will be sharper and deeper this time. The car industry just cannot cope with those sorts of falls. You'd need a quarter of car makers and dealerships to cease trading just to keep the others at break even.

That's not tens but hundreds of thousands of quality jobs lining up for the chop. Shattering.

--

Glazierflyer - good decision. Keep your powder dry for when the cycle turns to the upswing around 2011. Waiting is frustrating. Its wise though.

Don't anybody pin hopes on the interest rate cuts and government spending sorting this recession out. They tried it in Japan, repeatedly, for years, And It Didn't Work. It won't work here this time either.

Massive consolodation is on the cards, think Qantas/BA/Iberia/AA. The main driver is efficiency savings for which read needing fewer pilots to operate the same capacity. We will see a squeeze at the bottom where airlines go bust and release pilots and a squeeze at the top where airlines consolodate and either freeze recruitment or offer voluntary redundancy. Its all bad news for Wannabes and established pilots.

2009 will be a blood bath.


WWW

[thegypsy]

www the Robert Peston of aviation. Unfortunately you are right in your predictions.

[heli_port]

Oil prices have been steady at almost four-year lows below $44 a barrel as demand continues to be hit by the slowing global economy.

BBC NEWS | Business | Crude steady near four-year low (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7766445.stm)

[JB007]

My God, the SMMT have just released the car sales figures for Nov 08:

And Honda pull out of F1 this morning...Jenson's lost his job too!

[32SQDN]

I think he'll survive!!

[BitMoreRightRudder]

His girlfriend might ditch him though!

[Captain Airclues]

Shipping dry charter rates have always been an indication of commercial activity. The lower the rates the less international trade.

Baltic Exchange Dry Index (BDI) & Freight Rates (http://www.investmenttools.com/futures/bdi_baltic_dry_index.htm)

Makes worrying reading. It is not only the wannabes who should be concerned. Take note of WWW!

Dave

[nuclear weapon]

The minor bit of good news in all these is the gradual collapse of oil price which should offset some of the losses beign experienced by airlines.

[spinnaker]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/robertpeston/newcapitalism.pdf

Should be a good read. He tells us how we got here, readers of this thread probably already know.

It's his words in the final paragraphs that we need to deal with. The fact is, unaccountable bureaucrats have been working very hard. New legislation has been written, re-written, to be wrapped up into an EU directive and sanctioned by our own local council (sorry, Government). BASEL II. find one elected politician that knows what this is. It is an accord written by bankers, for bankers, to benefit bankers, and passed into law. That's what happened with BASEL I. And because no one knew what it really meant, no one could effectively enforce the rules. These accords stipulate how the banking system should work, what reserves banks should hold AND what type of reserve or instrument is acceptable.

Google BASEL II and ask your MP what he or she knows about it, after all they will be voting for it sometime in the future.

Ta

[getoffmycloud]

I know more than enough about Basle 2... it has only been gradually phased in over the past 1-2 years and whilst it didn't help it is not the cause.... the cause is just too much debt that has built up over years that people are now struggling to repay.

Basle 2 is just a small (very small) part of the puzzle... it is not all the fault of the "evil banks"... try everyone who borrowed and defaulted on a debt.... greed wasn't just bankers.... all the buy-to-let investors... anyone who bought a car and funded it wuth debt... everyone who got 80k in debt funding an ATPL and then didn't pay it back..... Basle 2 is irrelevent in the big picture as the debt mountain was largely built before it was introduced:oh:

Blame greed in its many different forms.

[Flying Squid]

Hurrendous volume's of debt being built up by people who could never pay it back is a major contributor to this situation, we all know that. Your guy's are all right...no one made them take the debt on, they're all adults and they should have known better. But if I may play devil's advocate for a minute.....since Gordon Brown got his hands on the UK economy in 1997 he has raised and introduced over 100 new taxes which has had a big impact on people, especially lower income families. i.e the people who are now in mountains of debt that cannot be paid back. The vast majority of the borrowed money has been spent on material stuff such as fancy holidays, plasma TV's, new cars other luxuries that people really couldnt afford in the first place. But rather than the banks and credit card companies being responsible in their lending they took advantage of people's situation and rammed store cards and cheap loans down our throats. Is it really any wonder that we're in this situation.

Guys/Girls I really don't mean this to come across as if I'm getting up on a political soap box, I'M HONESTLY NOT! I just think that there is a reason for people splashing out and getting into this situation. I see so so much in the media and on here about people spending too much that's the reason we're in this mess.....but has anyone stopped an thought, what made people go out and splash out on a few luxuries in the first place????Perhaps because they were fed up of being taxed to death???

Food for thought! As said above this really isnt an invitation for a debate on political views and before someone shoots me down just think about the last time you were pissed off, thought f**k it and went and splashed out on something you couldnt really afford but your mastercard could.....

FS (now with a tin hat on) :uhoh:

[no sponsor]

FT.com / Companies / Transport - Airlines on course for $2.5bn loss in 2009 (http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/77d3b3cc-c602-11dd-a741-000077b07658.html)

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

The airline industry will suffer a $2.5bn net loss next year despite the big fall in the oil price, as carriers are overtaken by falling demand for air travel amid the deepening recession in several leading economies.

“The outlook is bleak. The chronic industry crisis will continue into 2009. We face the worst revenue environment in 50 years,” Giovanni Bisignani, director general of the International Air Transport Association (Iata), said on Tuesday.


As someone once said, the oil price is a sideshow..

Worst in 50 years is a bit scary.


WWW

[Alex Whittingham]

The predicted sharp drop in customers for the Low Costs didn't happen in November.
In fact numbers are up, again:

Ryanair November Traffic up by 11%, load factor up 1% Ryanair.com (http://www.ryanair.com/site/EN/news.php?yr=08&month=dec&story=pax-en-031208)
Easyjet November Traffic up 3.4%, load factor up 3.1% Easyjet.com (http://www.easyjet.com/en/news/nov_08_passenger_statistics.html)

Neither airline is an IATA member.

[Flying Squid]

That's interesting....I bet those figures won't be reported in the national news or press though....too much like good news and good news doesn't sell papers or keep viewers!!!

Another "Association Leader" making another prediction about yet more doom and gloom. Just what the world needs right now. Thank god for his input because I was thinking next year would be a bed of roses! Blimey if that hadn't been mentioned we would have all been totally caught by surprise when 2009 turns out to be a bit pants!

He wasn't one of those informed economists that predicted oil rising to over $200 by the end of the year was he????

[PosClimb]

Ryanair November Traffic up by 11%, load factor up 1% Ryanair.com (http://www.ryanair.com/site/EN/news.php?yr=08&month=dec&story=pax-en-031208)
Easyjet November Traffic up 3.4%, load factor up 3.1% Easyjet.com (http://www.easyjet.com/en/news/nov_08_passenger_statistics.html)

But how many airlines went out of business in order for Ryan and Easy to pick up that extra load?

Load factors are hardly the best measure of the industry.

If Ryan parked half its fleet tomorrow, it could increase its load factor by 1000 percent... Good news?

[Alex Whittingham]

Yes, it's always a problem when inconvenient facts don't follow the 'expert's' model, isn't it? I'm still struggling with the predictions of $150 oil by Christmas. This is a good one as well Telegraph financial expert speaks (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/comment/iancowie/2790431/Bag-a-fixed-rate-mortgage-while-you-can.html)

[Grass strip basher]

When we're those bookings for flights in November made Alex... before the banking world/economy fell apart in late September or before??

Thank God the pound isn't at an all time low vs the Euro.... those European breaks are going to be soooo much cheaper than last year.... everyone is going to be scrabbling to get over to Europe now the £ is so strong.

How many jets do Ryanair currently have parked up for the winter to get the load factor up? (I honestly don't know the answer to this one).

Glad to hear things are going so well at Easy that they haven't got rid of the CTC cadets after a 6 month stint at the airline... oh... but they did bin them!?? how does that work if passenger numbers are expected to keep growing??.

Is there not a recruitment freeze at Easy? How many pilots do you think Ryanair will take on in the next 12 months??

Stop driving looking in the rear view mirror... it is dangerous. But I admire your (misplaced) optimism.... it has served this country well for a long time and will no doubt be needed in coming months.... but to say this isn't the worst down turn in the aviation industry for at least 20-30 years is starting to sound like pathetic marketing Alex and it is a bit insulting to those who have already lost their jobs to say traffic numbers a still going up.

[Alex Whittingham]

But they are still going up, at least on last year's figures! I can see it doesn't match with the PPRuNe Stazi's economic model. Tough luck.

[Grass strip basher]

bugger me better go and train to be an airline pilot... there are going to be sh*t loads of jobs around.

Care to put your money where you mouth is?? Do you still expect industry figures as a whole to be up year on year at the end of the first half of next year? How about a £20 wager for the Pprune fund?

P.S.

Ryanair numbers:
Sept Oct Nov
5.23mn 5.35mn 4.32mn
+20% +18% +11% yoy

Hmmmmmm do I detect a trend?? How unexpected.....

[Alex Whittingham]

Oh dear, here we go again. This is what I said last month:

'Again, you misunderstand me. I completely agree that this is a time for wannabees to be extremely cautious, particularly with borrowed money. I am merely observing that the data from the Low Costs, from as recently as October, flies in the face of your arguements and predictions.'

Please delete 'October' and insert 'November'. Ranting doesn't help your case.

Tell you what, though. I will take WWW's carefully defined bet of a month ago. He said:

'I promise Wannabes on pain of eating my Kangaroo skin hat with salt and pepper that in 2009 several significant EU airlines will go bust. By several I mean >10 and by significant I mean having more than >30 jets.'

I'll put £100 in the PPRuNe fund if he is right but, if he is wrong, I do want to see that hat eaten.

Do you detect a trend? A prize for the man! He's figured out the Low Costs are busier in the summer.

[Grass strip basher]

i'll take that as a no to the bet then ... I added the monthly Ryanair run rate to my last post if that helps.... + not ranting just surprised you think things will hold up into the new year. These booking would have been made up to 6 months ago when flights were released... you and I both know they don't reflect the current reality.

P.S. I know about seasonality.... which is why I put the yoy growth rates slowing significantly despite fleet expansion.... oooh and on airlines going bust what if they merge and fire bucket loads of flight crew??.... or does that not count?

[Alex Whittingham]

I'm taking WWW's statement at face value. He said bust, I imagine he means bust. Do you have a hat?

[Lurking123]

10 operators at 30+ aircraft each, going bust? That would be an impressive figure.

[getoffmycloud]

Unfortunately Alex the bottom line is the doomsayers have been proved 110% right so far.... you have been wrong..... the job outlook for newly qualified pilots is simply horrific.... worst for 20-30yrs.... even you aren't arguing with that surely??:confused:

[Lurking123]

110% right? I guess that means he was 10% wrong;)

(Hugely tongue in cheek and just trying to bring some light to the thread)

[Alex Whittingham]

Where have I been wrong?

[clear prop!!!]

Alex my friend and purveyor of my ATPL GS pass,.. on this thread a hint of positivity means you are W-R-O-N-G!!:O

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

There's nothing wrong with a hint of positivity and Alex your factual points are well made and pertinent, thanks for your continued input.

Yield is of course the key. With every airline seeing profits slump and their share prices decimating perhaps there is little comfort in increasing load factors and seat capacity at a few airlines. I would love to take great comfort in it, but frankly, I don't.

I genuinely do not want those that provide the glass half full side of the this debate to feel embattled and unwanted. You're not. Whilst I'm pretty sure of my position that this is going to be worse than the 1990-1993 airline miasma there are major differences to the industry this time and its not a foregone conclusion. Every recession probably looks like the worst one ever at the onset. There probably is no need to go out and buy land and guns and start digging.

In the medium term torrid recessions are good as they act like a forest fire and create space for the strong trees to come back and thrive more vigorously. Undoubtably we will lose some airlines but that will make the business models of those that remain much more viable in the longer run. With low barriers to entry and near instant price discovery this industry has for the last several decades seen businesses furiously fighting over the last 1% of the market. The result of that fight has been the massively deteriorated terms and conditions for those newly joining airlines.

They key point for wannabes is not to go for a picnic in the forest whilst the fire rages. Come back in just a couple of years and things will be growing back furiously and all will be beautiful. Whilst the fire rampages its all ugly and terrifying.

WWW

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Here's a glimmer of hope:

Peer Steinbrück on the Global Economic Crisis | Newsweek International Edition | Newsweek.com (http://www.newsweek.com/id/172613)


That glimmer being that at least in the German finance ministry somebody isn't panicking and has a clue about what has happened and what to do next. Which probably *isn't* heap more debt on a debt crisis..

WWW

[pilotmike]

I was quite looking forward to the spectacle of a Kangaroo skin hat being consumed in its entirety, WWW's bet being cordially accepted by Alex W earlier:
Tell you what, though. I will take WWW's carefully defined bet of a month ago. He said:

'I promise Wannabes on pain of eating my Kangaroo skin hat with salt and pepper that in 2009 several significant EU airlines will go bust. By several I mean >10 and by significant I mean having more than >30 jets.'


Imagine my delight to be greeted this morning by the e mail response from WWW:
Wee Weasley Welshman has just replied to a thread you have subscribed to entitled - Growing Evidence That The Upturn Is Upon Us - in the Professional Pilot Training (includes ground studies) forum of PPRuNe Forums.... Here is the message that has just been posted:
***************
I stand by my hat. All views are equal and welcome. This is a debate not a sermon.. 10 airlines * 30 jets = £100 to the fund no problem.

Www from my iPhone
***************
I had a slight worry that WWW may have valued his hat at somewhat greater than £100 and hoped he could switch the bet to being £100 instead of the gourmet meal on his part, but worse, the post doesn't seem to be visible to the wider audience. I do hope a diligent (worried?!) moderator hasn't chosen to censor it for whatever reason, and that WWW isn't wriggling out of what appeared to be a genuine gentleman's bet between two honourable folk.

I had 0001 on 01 January 2010 down in my diary as a hat eating gourmet-fest which had all the makings of being completely unmissable - indeed, probably worthy of TV coverage for that wider audience. I do hope we're not going to be disappointed!

Of course, on the other hand, WWW might be right, and at least 10 major airline will go bust, in which case I'm sure someone of Alex's excellent reputation and character would ensure that his £100 winged its way to the appropriate fund without quibble, hesitation, deviation (or repetition).

I'm sure however that most PPRuNers would not wish for such disappointment (the loss of jobs that is!) and that the hat eating spectacle will go ahead as per the very clear bet between WWW and Alex W, witnessed by all on this thread.

I just hope that enough of us save the contents of the thread - wouldn't it be dreadful if it were somehow accidentally deleted with no other record other than the ones we have kept to cover such unfortunate circumstances.

[Grass strip basher]

Large airlines/flag carriers won't go bust... they will merge with significant subsequent job losses.... BMI/Luft.... BA/Quantas/Iberia/my grans airline... Northwest/Delta etc etc.... hell even talk of Emirates/Ethiad out in the desert (would mainly be ground ops though)

I fear WWW will lose this on a technicality but the overall impact on the wanabee employment market is pretty much the same.

[Lurking123]

Absolutely. The real question will be whether there are 300+ fewer aircraft floating around Europe within a year.

[Grass strip basher]

Perhaps we should buy a load of cheap repossed houses in Nevada... knock them down and then offer to park planes on the land for the next 3 years?? Solve the US housing crisis and airline overcapacity and make a quick buck ;)

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Never buy an iPhone, take it to the pub and make postings of PPRuNe whilst waiting for a taxi.

I will write out those lines 1,000 times. ;)


>10 airlines with >30 aircraft bust is a pretty big bet. If it was >30 airlines with >10 aircraft I think I'd be more likely to put money on it.

Either way, it'll be worse than 1990's recession when in the UK we lost:

Air Europe
Airfreight Express
Ambassador
Capital
Dan Air
Tradewinds



WWW

[clear prop!!!]

WWW

Bet you wish you had got to the 'delete post button' before Pilotmike cut and pasted your 'Www..from my Iphone' post!!

Pubs...alchohol..pprune posts...iphones... never a good idea.....but we've all done it!!:O

clear prop!!!....(from my macbook pro) :)

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Not really. After all, I can make the whole thread disappear..


But actually, yes, there ought to be some sort of widget that, active after 10.30pm, would detect a horrendous misspelling rate and then lock the keypad for 2 hours. Actually, I might just wright that. There's got to be a market for it...


Apps Store: Pub Defender!


This time next year Rodney..


WWW


ps Yes and I am showing my age

[pilotmike]

After all, I can make the whole thread disappear..

Oh no, WWW! What a terrible prospect!:eek: But no worries - You'll be very relieved to know that fearing just such an unlikely misfortune, I have taken the trouble to save a copy of the thread so that it can be re-posted at a moment's notice if ever that dreadful misfortune were to occur.

We could never risk allowing such a great thread just to vanish into the ether, now could we?!!!;)

However, I'm fully with you on the texting / typing when on a night out - oh yes, done it far too many times, and it somehow always ends in tears.:{

[Slick]

Ryanair will employ 350 cadets next year. Someone asked?

It won't clear the rapidly growing European backlog of young pilots looking for a job - far from it. However looking solely from an out of work, potential cadet pilots point of view it is a little piece of positive news is it not?

Rgds

[JohnRayner]

As for the whole "drunken texts in pubs" thang, aren't google or somesuch developing something? Something to do with solving maths problems before having a text sent at a certain time of the day...

Sorry if this is old news, but I've just got back from the pub...

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

RYR will take 350 cadets in 2009?! A record number. Presumably they would have to promote to Captain a similar number of FO's. Allowing for a few retirements they'd need to add around 50 jets to their fleet - 6 per month.

Nah.


WWW

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Nouriel Roubini (NYU economics professor) is someone I listen to. This is what he is saying today.


We are in the middle of a very severe recession that's going to continue through all of 2009 - the worst U.S. recession in the past 50 years. It's the bursting of a huge leveraged-up credit bubble. There's no going back, and there is no bottom to it. It was excessive in everything from subprime to prime, from credit cards to student loans, from corporate bonds to muni bonds. You name it. And it's all reversing right now in a very, very massive way. At this point it's not just a U.S. recession. All of the advanced economies are at the beginning of a hard landing. And emerging markets, beginning with China, are in a severe slowdown. So we're having a global recession and it's becoming worse.

Things are going to be awful for everyday people. U.S. GDP growth is going to be negative through the end of 2009. And the recovery in 2010 and 2011, if there is one, is going to be so weak - with a growth rate of 1% to 1.5% - that it's going to feel like a recession. I see the unemployment rate peaking at around 9% by 2010. The value of homes has already fallen 25%. In my view, home prices are going to fall by another 15% before bottoming out in 2010.

For the next 12 months I would stay away from risky assets. I would stay away from the stock market. I would stay away from commodities. I would stay away from credit, both high-yield and high-grade. I would stay in cash or cashlike instruments such as short-term or longer-term government bonds. It's better to stay in things with low returns rather than to lose 50% of your wealth. You should preserve capital. It'll be hard and challenging enough. I wish I could be more cheerful, but I was right a year ago, and I think I'll be right this year too.



Take the 1990's recession. Multiply it by 1.5. Apply to the current airline industry. That's 2009.


WWW

[nuclear weapon]

They are planning to take on 350 cadets and i am assuming they are cheap for ryanair. Where the hell do they plan to be flying to as thre are overcapacity on some of these routes. I cant wait for them to start going transatlantic though.

[ChrisLKKB]

If only the Labour party had a delete button and could wriggle out of some of the things it's said and done.

I'd boil that kangaroo skin hat for a few hours first to tenderise it a bit WWW :E

[Slick]

Almost. 47 Jets I believe. That is the net fleet increase 2009. And yes somewhere in the region of 80-90 CUs. Anyway training continues, there are new cadets under training and CU courses running as I type. Nearly all my flights are training flights and I spend a fair amount of time in the sim.

Im not interested in a discussion of the merits of joining Ryanair good or bad, I just though it might be of interest, and maybe a little bit of good news.


Best Rgds

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Thanks for posting it.

Adding that many aircraft into the teeth of a major recession is a brave move that I guess RYR can't get out of given they ordered the aircraft with no option to get out of it.

I think they'll be the only airline in Europe adding >3% to their fleet size in 2009. Good news for wannabes at least.

WWW

[Flying Squid]

I'd heard on the grapevine that RYR were taking on over 300 newbies next year. Aparantly 2011 is the year they'll be heading Transatlantic but I gather it will be under a different name so..... I wonder who'll be selling their souls to get onto the 777 (I think that's what they'll be using anyway???)

Bloody great news, the first bit that newbies such as myself has had in a while!!!! :):):)

[Honiley]

Also Thomson Airways have revised it's Summer 2009 fleet plan and seized opportunities to increase some capacity onto key mid-haul desinations! It's now back to 62 operating aircraft including a Coventry base!

Very bizarre circumstances but alot of happy people in the Midlands and on the Airbus fleet...unless you hate Sharm El Sheikh...

[Flying Squid]

Blimey, 2 bits of pretty good news in 1 day......must be X-Mas! :ok:

[IrishJetdriver]

Is the 47 planes for FR an increase in fleet size or the number of 737 being delivered ?

Bear in mind FR are always replacing aircraft. I think it was 4 off the list this month.

Good news though. I think MOL only wants 60-70 widebodies for the longhaul operation !

[Flying Squid]

Christ....60-70! happy days!!! If RYR want over 300 newbies next year then i would think that they are adding those aircraft to the fleet. Not surprisingly the RYR attrition rate has been pretty low over the last few months and coupled with the Boeing strikes it has meant a slow down in their recruitment but if akll this goes ahead then it's some small amount of good news for us low hour guys!!!

[getoffmycloud]

Wow so much good news from an airline that is making its current flight crew take unpaid leave....

[Alvechurch]

Honiley

Are you saying that having pulled out of Coventry last month Thomson are going back in with a base in 2009? :confused:

[IrishJetdriver]

Just a note on the FR unpaid leave. if you're on a Brookfield contract you are only paid 11 months but you know you have to take a month off before you sign on the dotted line. As far as the rest, it's only DUB and STN affected, and even then it's not everyone as it depends on your hours. Allegedly.

[redsnail]

It's also some of the European bases as well. A husband of one of my colleague's has to take unpaid leave and not just a month... (Captain)

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

I don't think Ryanair will make significant recruitment next year.

They've said they will though so its up the them to prove me wrong which I may well be.


A major recession WILL be happening. If they add extra capacity then its a ballsy move. But they are a ballsy profitable company so why not?

WWW

[Another TD]

These are bizarre times…1300 voluntary redundancies to be completed from BA managerial level staff by the end of this month and yet today at work I was informed that BA is recruiting LAE’s or student LAE from varies collages and universities due to a foreseen shortage. My mortgage is now 3.51% giving me more net cash than I’ve had in many a year, and my job is secure…this recession is a very bizarre phenomenon but and it’s a big BUT, I’m not about to spend £25000 to become a pilot, not just yet anyway.

[Slick]

You may be right www, who knows?. However it is true 2009 is going to be interesting, as is 2010,11 and 12. If it stops there, as your German friend thinks it might, thats fine by me.

We will know soon enough.

rgds

[Flying Squid]

TD - Point well made, this is a very odd time to be living in. Just one small thing......."£25000 to become a pilot"...... not a chance, i've been fairly frugal but will be lucky to end up with a total bill less than £55000, but I know what you mean.

[chrisbl]

TD - I am not sure BA will be recruiting anybody from "collages".:bored:

[ChrisLKKB]

Does anyone have any good hat recipes ?

[student88]

Recruiting people from collages? Will they be made out of crepe paper?

Guys, I left the aviation industry in September and have returned to college to study towards A Levels. I'm really missing flying and am thinking of re applying to airlines as Cabin Crew in order to save the cash to pay for my training (I was cabin crew before). What do you think I should do? - stick with college or try and get back into the swing of things. I'd appreciate your views.

Cheers - S88:ok:

[C-141Starlifter]

Stay in school and finish your studies!

[JB007]

If being a pilot is what you really want to do, then I would suggest you try and get back into the environment. Thomas Cook, according to their website, have CC vacancies all over the UK and were asking for internal applicants with CPL/IR's to apply for it's pilot vacancies last month.

In it to win it and all that...

[student88]

My Mum just suggested that I do what my Dad does and become a London cabbie - do the knowledge and earn in 2 years enough money to pay for a whole integrated course and a type rating. Hmmm not such a bad idea! Thanks for the feedback guys (Y)

[mcgoo]

I didn't know cabbies earned +60k a year nett?

[student88]

Yeah they can earn quite a lot. It's one of those jobs where if you need the money you can go out and get it. 24hours a day 365 days a year there is pretty much always a job about. Obviously it would take a while to master the knowledge! I doubt it'll happen - just a passing thought. All I want to do is get the money to pay for my training. I'm not too keen on getting a loan.

[chrisbl]

Probaly harder to pass the knowledge than do the ATPL exams.

[hollingworthp]

Unless Bristol GS decide to roll out a prep site to save everyone from having to learn the material ;)

[chrisbl]

It is probably harder to do the knowledge than the ATPL exams.

[hollingworthp]

Quack (want to see if these echo too .... :} )

[Airflight69]

Quack! Sorry had to do it.:)

[heli_port]

phase 2 exams approaching in Jan :ok: looking forward to going to the states to finally doing some flying!

Gatwicks Second runway (http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/transport/article5361870.ece)

BA & Quantas (http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/transport/article5363067.ece)

:cool:

[getoffmycloud]

We are only just warming in this downturn.... 2009 is going to be pants! :sad:
One million stay-at-home Britons shunned summer holiday in 2008 -Times Online (http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/travel/news/article5365074.ece)

[Flying Squid]

Can't see it happening. Sure they'll be a slow down in holidays but I bet they'll be more holidays taken in 2009 than 2008 despite the economy getting worse overall.

2008 has been a year of uncertainty....we've all had theories about where the eceonomy has been going but now we know. 2009 will indeed be ****! I rekon people will be less inclined to dine out at the weekend and save the money for a summer hols. I read somewhere the other day that the all inclusive package holiday is set to make a comeback in 2009....largely due to people being fed up with uncertainty and they want to know how much they're going to spend, especially with the Euro getting stronger against the £ by the day.

Here's hoping!!! But I've sat here today applying for Cabin Crew jobs whilst I finish my training and looking for flight deck job's....says it all doesn't it!

[ChrisLKKB]

Here's hoping!!! But I've sat here today applying for Cabin Crew jobs whilst I finish my training and looking for flight deck job's....says it all doesn't it!

It certainly says a lot about you.

[Flying Squid]

What's that meant to mean???? If it's a good thing then cheers......but if it's a derrogatory comment then would you like to explain the negative point's to applying for Cabin Crew jobs and at least getting some operational airline experience whilst looking for flight deck jobs?????

[helimutt]

Anyone who really really believes 2009 will be a better year for holiday makers heading abroad? Cuckoo!
Wake up and smell the coffee. I bet this year a whole load of people went on holiday and paid on a credit card. Next year that option doesn't look so rosy. More people out of work. Unless the cost of these holidays drops considerably, (my Maldives holiday looks out of the window as can't find a decent deal to be had yet) then maybe people might think about it.

Deeper and deeper we will spiral into this recession. But hey, keep positive guys, it should end sometime in the future!

[biaeghh]

Flying Squid,


Don't be to surprised about the response you got from ChrisLKKB, both him and WWW are the grim reapers of the world, don't recognise anything that might be connected with positivity and would only be happy if everyone else wasn't!!!

[student88]

To become cabin crew before being a pilot is great experience.

However, I'd be really cheesed off if I ( a person who wants to be CC with only an interest in working the cabin) goes for a job and someone who is only going to be there until something better comes along gets it over me. Especially if he's going to be in the flight deck every 10 minutes not interested in what he's really doing. If I was you I'd keep quiet about the whole flight training thing which will be hard. As soon as airlines recruiting CC hear anything along the lines of pilot training big red warning lights start flashing which lead to you probably not getting the job. It's not worth running the "they cant do that it's discrimination"line because if they have a reason to not want to give you the job they'll find an excuse.

There are so many experienced CC out there looking for jobs - every assessment day for positions with various airlines recently have been rammed with them. You'll have a lot of competition against you.

Recession aside, people spending money like it's going out of fashion this Christmas. I'm glad my family are going for the present free option this year! None of us actually want anything so it seems like a good idea. Saves on the awkward moments like when you open your velour pyjama set from your aunty.

What a positive post. Merry Christmas!

[Flying Squid]

Bottom line....of course I want to be flying but until this pants economic situation sorts itself out that seems fairly unlikely so all I'm saying is that I am going to get my foot in the door that way for a while.

Student88 - I take your comments on board, I'm certainly not going to walk in and say look at me with my CPL/IR.....any airline is going to think what a tosser (and rightly so)....I'm not going to lie to the recruiters either because ultimately that looks ALOT worse than being upfront and honest. If I got a job as CC then for the time I'm doing that then it will receive my undivided attention, of course I'll be looking towards the flight deck longingly but that's life. The jobs arent there so (for the time being) I can't have one. Simple. Surely they can see some positive's to someone that get's off their arse and does something productive with their time until they can get a RHS...beats sitting on here whinging about how bad the world is!!!The jobs I'm looking at CC wise are only temporary contracts for 2009 anyway and there aint much chance of a RHS next year so.....

[heli_port]

Toyota braced for historic loss (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7794888.stm)

[Sciolistes]

I suspect that this government will attempt to artificially prevent a serious recession by fiddling with interest rates and the reserve ratio. I think there is a good possibility that the bottom of the downturn is not that far away. If this is the case then I think we'll be hit by a second wave that will much worse than predicted in another couple of years hence.

I also think that the banks can see the second wave coming hence the reluctance to pass interest rates on or ensure that people can pay back at least 7%, they sense that a recovery will be stimulated.

We really must take the pain now - recessions are necessary economic tools for long term stability, but they don't sit well with UK style populist democratic politics.

What I think this means is if you train now you are taking a risk that you will have to service a large debt with no flying job during the recession. If you don't train now and the recession is not as deep due to artificial tinkering (as mentioned above) then you run the risk of getting caught by the second wave and never make to the flight deck. There is no way to quantify the risk and the latter scenario is vague at best. Difficult times.

If you do train now, it maybe with an eye to working abroad to help mitigate the risk. Learn another European language (my gut feeling is that Euro land will be much more stable than the UK), perhaps do your research and use a school that has links or approvals with foreign airlines and/or authorities.

[getoffmycloud]

They have already cut rates to close to zero and playing with bank reserve ratios will make bugger all difference (do you even know what a reserve ratio is??). Even jobs in the middle east (that bastion of aviation) are starting to dry up.

Banks are not passing base rate cuts on because no banks prices mortgage loans off base rate... they use the SWAP curve which reflects their cost of funding the loans. if the SWAP curve doesn't shift 3-4 years out which is the average duration of a UK mortgage product (before refinancing) then they do not change rates... simple as that. Base rate is irrelevent for pricing new mortgages... unfortunately our retarded government and press have not worked this simple fact out despite having over 12 months to work it out.

We have a government that is desparately trying to generate inflation to inflate its way out of this debt mountain but with asset prices falling eveywhere it cannot even do that (well not for at least another 12 months). First glimmers of recovery are 2010 at the earliest. Plan for recruitment to returns 2012 earliest.

2009 is going to be a bloodbath. We are probably 75% of the way through the financial crisis but on 25% max of the way through the economic recession. Your talk about "artificial tinkering" is off the mark... the bank of england and government have not "tinkered"... they have thrown absolutely everything they have at this and frankly are now just resorting to printing money hence the collapse in sterling and the German Finance minister calling Gordon Brown an idiot (which is something I think most people would agree with).

[Re-Heat]

Come on - you are arguing for the sake of it, and your knowledge is dodgy.

Sciolistes has some astute points, and is a sensible post.

Banks are not passing base rate cuts on because no banks prices mortgage loans off base rate... they use the yield curve which reflects their cost of funding the loans. if the yield curve doesn't shift 3-4 years out which is the average duration of a UK mortgage product (before refinancing) then they do not change rates... simple as that. Base rate is irrelevent for pricing new mortgages
So what do you say to all those people on UK Base Rate tracker mortgages then? Admitedly, you won't find many new deals on such a basis, but UK base rate deals existed.

The pricing of the margin is based upon (a) competition and (b) cost of capital. A bank's cost of capital is determined by funding in interbank markets (LIBOR) and bond & equity financing. I have never seen pricing off government bond yields.

A loan is priced as Margin over an index (base rate, LIBOR, EURIBOR, or sometime CDSs of the borrowing company), and mandatory costs (compensation for BoE requirements). A mortgage is little different - all these are lumped into the "standard variable rate".

[Re-Heat]

And going back to the topic (aviation training) - loans have become scarcer as banks continue to hoard capital.

The government would be foolish to dole out free capital to anyone, and where they do will simply be starving more worthwhile opportunities of capital by using up a limited resource.

Preservation of jobs in itself is not sufficient reason to lend - capital allocation to profitable opportunities is what drives long-term growth.

We truly are witnessing a creative destruction of capital at present: destruction of the dead wood and a rebirth of the new, better, more worthwhile opportunities.

[getoffmycloud]

Re-heat you are wrong... plane and simple... and I know.... it is my job (c15yrs 60-70 hours a week analysising bank balance sheets should put me in a position to know... and yes before you ask I was negative on Northern Rock)... you price a mortgage loan AT ORIGINATION off the yield curve. This determines your cost of funding the mortages. If you move base rate you do not necessarily change a banks cost of funding.

What you link the mortgage rate to post origination via a SWAP or whatever else is up to you. Why do you think there is not just 1 LIBOR rate but overnight, 1 month, 3 month, 6 month, 12 month etc etc... all those different durations till you have built up a yield curve (Base rate you might notice is just 1 rate... not a curve). Here is a beginners guide to how you price a mortgage in an ideal world....

Step 1) Assume duration of the mortgage you want to write e.g. 2-3 years
Step 2) Fund mortage with liability of similar duration e.g. 2-3 years (e.g. securitisation was one method of duration matching).
Step 3) Price mortgage based of cost of raising 2-3 year money i.e. the 2-3 year interbank rate/yield curve whatever you want to call it.
Step 4) Add your spread to the 2 year cost of money
Step 5) Write the mortgage.

Base rate does not come into it unless post writing the mortgage you want to link price moves to it (I guess you could use a simple swap to do this).

The initial pricing is done off the yield curve/inter-bank rates to make sure you are duration matching... is part of bank asset and liability management.

A banks equity captial is typically only c5% of its total funding in the UK so cost of equity is not that relevent. Cost of term wholesale funding is everything once you have more loans than deposits like most UK mortgage banks.

so why no mortgages at the moment?? Well we have more loans than deposits and people are not prepared to lend banks money in wholesale markets for more than 1-2 months at the moment hence you cannot fund a mortgage product with and expected life of 2-3 years without taking unacceptable risk of the funding being pulled before the mortgage martures (this is a small part of a complicated funding issue).

But this is beyond most everyday armchair economists (understandably) but an important part of why base rate is not important for pricing mortgages when you ORIGINATE them.

So Re-hear your comments are not accurate... what are you equity sales with 2-3 years experience??

[Re-Heat]

On the contrary, I quite agree with you, as my post refects. You rather dismissively referred to the yield curve, introducing technical concepts of duration that are unlikely to be understood on this forum. It was without introducing that detail, as you have now done, along with unwarranted aggression that caused your post to be described by myself as dodgy (particularly as the yield curve usually refers to UK gilts).

If you wish to construct a yield curve from LIBOR rates (commonly known as the swap or money market curve), and use those to fund mortgages, then as per my explanation, that is exactly the same as what you are pricing from - ie. your cost of funds.

The mechanism for policy rates is not to alter the interbank rates though as you suggest, but to alter the attractiveness of saving vs lending; thus by reducing rates, saving becomes less attractive, and demand for borrowing tends to rise in the long-term: something that the BoE and government well knows.

There is little need to aggressively shout people down if you want to explain something here - everyone is willing to listen.

I do not care to divulge my background but would rather let my opinions stand on their own.

[getoffmycloud]

geez mate this is getting boring for everyone and don't be such a pendant. this is direct copy from the BoE website...

What are Yield Curves?

The Monetary Instruments and Markets Division of the Bank of England estimates yield curves for the UK on a daily basis. They are of two kinds. One set is based on yields on UK government bonds (gilts) and includes nominal and real yield curves and the inflation term structure for the United Kingdom. The other set is based on sterling interbank rates (LIBOR) and on yields on instruments linked to LIBOR, short sterling futures, forward rate agreements and LIBOR-based interest rate swaps. These commercial bank liability curves are nominal only.

But of course the BoE has been known to be wrong... you clearly know more about it than them :ugh: and I am not getting into a willie waving contest with you.

Bottom line is lowering base rate does not necessarily impact on the price of originating a new mortgage... full stop..... my knowledge is not "dodgy" and I don't give a monkey's if I come across rude... anyone who thinks the BoE is "artificially" going to get us out of this mess have a issue with either basic English or economics.

[Sciolistes]

Thanks chaps and interesting stuff. I am purely amateur in this respect, I'll make no bones about it. The detail you guys are getting into certainly provides further food for thought. But I think my basic concern remains. Accept that a deep recession as necessary and beware a premature recovery.

[Re-Heat]

Yes I am being pedantic, precisely as you insisted on being such. Common City parlance of "the yield curve" refers to Gilts - that does not prevent you creating a yield curve from any set of rates, the latter of which mentioned by your quote is referred to as "the swap curve".

I still fail to see what is so wrong with Sciolistes' post. Manipulation of reserve requirements, while uncommon in the UK (as there is no target ratio here), is common overseas, and artificially low rates stimulate an economy out of recession.

The common perception of the man on the street of "passing on interest rates" directly is indeed flawed as you helpfully point out, but as an end result of increased demand for borrowing and lower saving, it is the indirect consequence of policy rate changes as savings and borrowings even out across banks and the economy.

The BoE themselves seek to influence mortgage rates through this mechanism (more effective in nature than European countries whose mortgage and borrowing demand is limited by culture), not in monthly changes to rates, but in the long-term indirect effect on aggregate borrowing.

[getoffmycloud]

No worries scolistes but don't put you cash on the line betting on the government or BoE getting us out of this mess in a painless fashion. There is no "tweaking to be done"... they have already thrown the kitchen sink at it and are now scrabbling around for another plan.

Geeez re-heat you are something else.... so where exactly do you disagree with my original post... is it that you cannot build a yield curve from the interbank rate (even though the BoE does it every day and posts it on their website/Bloomberg etc etc)??? You seem to agree on everything else but still deem my original post " dodgy".... or are you just being "argumentative"

P.S. I have changed the wording in my original post to SWAP curve from Yield curve to make it sooooo much clearer for the armchair economists amongst us.... :ugh::ugh:. I apologise to all those who require a distinction between the different type of yield curves the BoE publishes be it gilts or SWAPs.... but many funnily enough won't give a cr*p about the distinction...

P.P.S. there are many different types of yield curve... those interested can have a look here... mortgages in the UK typically price of the rate 3-4yrs out... hence not base rate like I said originally... hence you can cut base rate to zero but cost of funding new mortgages and hence their prices may not change.
Yield curve - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yield_curve)

[Flying Squid]

Now now ladies........

I'm sure I'm not the only one that has absolutely no idea what you're talking about so back to something more relevant????? (when I say relevant I actually mean something which I and everyone else can comprehend!!!)

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

No, this is all very relevant. Its also remarkably difficult to find this sort of material on the web outside of certain economics forums. I welcome it. I find it frankly sinister that not even the very basics of banking, finance and money is taught in the education system. When it is the force that determines so much of our lives.

I've stopped trying to decide to be scared about deflation or hyperinflation and instead now worry about devaluation!

WWW

[Flying Squid]

The basic fundamentals of Economics are infact taught at school but as an option from GCSE level onwards. Business Studies also includes elements of Finance, Banking and Economics but I picked Economics as a seperate subject so not sure how deep Business Studies goes. One of the most interesting subjects I studied at school and was pretty popular so don't be too hasty to become grumpy WWW...it's (http://www...it's) Christmas!!!! :E

I would agree that it should be a compulsory subject though. I don't pretend to know the inner workings of the stuff discussed above with my almighty GCSE in Economics but it gave me a grounding in the stuff that makes the world go round.

Festive Flying Squid :ok:

[Sciolistes]

Getoffmycloud,
Even jobs in the middle east (that bastion of aviation) are starting to dry up.
Maybe, maybe not. I'm not suggesting it will be easy. The Middle East aviation is still expanding. You and I probably can guess that they will cut back on that, but to what degree? I don't think Asia is as exposed as the mainstream press suggest. There are many more growing economies than China and Japan is not the be all and end all of the region. My message is if you want the job then and open mind, adaptability and flexibility will be key assets. All in my opinion of course.
No worries scolistes but don't put you cash on the line betting on the government or BoE getting us out of this mess in a painless fashion.
Fascinating stuff and, well, yes, quite, that is what I am saying. The purpose of my post was to highlight that one way or another and sooner rather than later, the UK (in particular) is in a situation that it cannot get out of without real hurt.
Geeez re-heat you are something else.... so where exactly do you disagree with my original post
What Re-heat is saying is that the mechanics that you are delving in are maybe are not as relevant to the core point that relates to the supply of money. Re-heat is not disagreeing with you in principle but also makes the point that if you delve into detail then it is necessary respond as such too. I welcome Re-heat's response as I welcome yours. He also made a point that has highlighted more research required on my part. Don't be frustrated by disagreement or indeed of armchair economists like myself. It is complex and difficult to get across in words without considerable volume.

WWW,
Its also remarkably difficult to find this sort of material on the web outside of certain economics forums...I find it frankly sinister that not even the very basics of banking, finance and money is taught in the education system.
Indeed, it is very sinister. One example is the recent Madoff scam. There are endless articles dedicated to it but not one single article can I find in the mainstream press that has any real substance. You will not find the mainstream media explaining how monetarism works. I suspect that the reality of the Madoff scam is that he simply practiced a form of embezzlement not too dissimilar to that practiced legally by the banks on a daily basis! If the average man on the street understood how, they wouldn't believe it.

Flying Squid,
FWIW (I hated the subject then I didn't pay attention), I studied Economics at 'O' Level, the subject concentrated on the markets (very basic stuff) which is really a parallel subject to fractional (or zero!) reserve monetarism.

[chrisbl]

One of the main points lost in the credit crunch is that those people who exercised restraint, saved their money and did not borrow wildly are the ones having to pay for those who did borrow money they could not afford whether it was to buy an over priced house or fund training for a career where there is an over supply of wannabes.

It is impossible to get a loan for almost anything yet savers are getting naff all in interest rates. So both borrowers and savers are hit.

It is not so long ago that there was a thread in the forum of people advocating borrowing money to train and then going bankrupt to avoid repaying the loan.

I dont know what it is about this industry that makes people take leave of their senses to want to sit in front of a machine and operate mainly automatic systems and fork out the thick end of £100k to do so. It is not the sort of thing a responsible person should be looking to do. Maybe it is the uniform.

While the wannabes are doing this the airlines are excused the responsibility of selecting and training sane, sensible people and sorting this out before the money is spent (by the airline).

I would not trust the FTOs as far as I could throw them to be objective when someone walks through the door with £000s hanging out of their pockets. After all would a drug dealer try and pursuade a junkie not to buy his stuff on the grounds that it was bad for him?

When its all spent, the wannabe is not the FTOs' problem anymore and they become victims of the market.

I personally know too many marking time as instructors or CC or odd job men, and are finding it even tougher now.

The downturn will get worse. The first industry to recover will be construction (it always is) but not before 2010 and the rest will slowly follow.

Whilst load factors might seem good, it will because capacity has been cut along with prices and that means less money for investment and growth and pay etc.

I have experienced every recession since the oil crisis in the early 70s and it has never got this bad so quickly and there seems nothing can stop it getting worse. I can find no redeeming features or any scope for optimism.

Merry Christmas.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

People going bankrupt after training funded by borrowed money is going to become VERY fashionable in 2009. Those that always planned to do so are the winners in all this as it won't be in any way remarkable or unusual.

I always said that it was a logical plan with a high chance of success.


WWW

[heli_port]

What is Bankruptcy?
Introduction

Bankruptcy is an option that often has to be considered when an individual cannot pay their debts as they fall due. A first time bankrupt with debts will generally receive their discharge one year after the date of the bankruptcy order (there is the possibility that in some cases the bankruptcy discharge period will be less than one year). Although bankruptcy has a bad stigma and is publicly advertised, it should always be considered when dealing with individual insolvency cases.
Please note that if your are ever faced with the prospect of bankruptcy you should look at alternatives as soon as possible such as the
Individual Voluntary Arrangement procedure (IVA). (http://www.insolvencyhelpline.co.uk/paye-employed/the-iva-procedure.php)
Bankruptcy is one way of dealing with debts you cannot pay.

The bankruptcy proceedings:-
free you from overwhelming debts so you can make a fresh start, subject to some restrictions
make sure your assets are shared out fairly among your creditors.Anyone can go bankrupt, including individual members of a partnership. There are different insolvency procedures for dealing with companies and for partnerships themselves.
How are you made bankrupt?

An individual can be made bankrupt either in one of three ways:
Voluntarily - By the debtor themselves.
Involuntarily - By the creditor owed money (£750 Minimum).
The supervisor or anyone bound by an IVAA bankruptcy order can still be made even if you refuse to acknowledge the proceedings or refuse to agree to them. You should therefore co-operate fully once the bankruptcy proceedings have begun. If you dispute the creditor’s claim, you should try and reach a settlement before the bankruptcy petition is due to be heard. Trying to do so after the bankruptcy order is made is both difficult and expensive.
What are the implications of bankruptcy?
You lose control of your assets.
You cannot obtain credit for over £250 without the permission from the lender.
You cannot act as a company director.
You cannot take any part in the promotion, formation or management of a limited company (LTD) without the permission of the court.
You cannot trade in any business under any other name unless you inform all persons concerned of the bankruptcy.
You may not practice as a Charted Accountant / Lawyer.
You may not act as a Justice of the peace (JP).
You may not become an member of parliament.
You may not become a member of the local authority.
Your credit is affected for many years after the annulment.
You may be publicly examined in court.What are the advantages of bankruptcy?
For the person involved, bankruptcy provides relative peace of mind and possible automatic discharge after one year (or less in some cases).
For the creditors, bankruptcy allows a full investigation of the debtor's affairs to be carried out.Bankruptcy - What is Bankruptcy? (http://www.insolvencyhelpline.co.uk/bankruptcy/what_is_bankruptcy.php)

As one of the implications, i would add cannot pilot an aircraft! http://www.christmas-corner.com/images/christmas-smileys/presents3.gif

http://www.mysmiley.net/imgs/smile/tongue/tongue0021.gif (http://www.mysmiley.net/freesmiley.php?smiley=tongue/tongue0021.gif)

[Black Knat]

Assuming no assets/responsibilities, the 'borrow/go bankrupt' could be a (slight tongue-in-cheek) logical choice PROVIDING you have stowed away enough hidden cash to keep current for a while. The whole system is faulty-was a time when hard work/determination could produce a commercial licence. Think the total I spent on PPL-ATPL/IR was around £18,000 over a few years. The current system for >£70,000 just lines the pockets of 'training' organisations. All very sad.

[heli_port]

Think the total I spent on PPL-ATPL/IR was around £18,000 over a few years.

really! wow these days i think what a graduate has in loans! if only we could return to the days you could get an atpl for £18k wow :p

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

What are the implications of bankruptcy?
You lose control of your assets.

You don't have any assets. You're in your 20's no property and drive a banger. Your asset is your Frzn ATPL and they can't take that (or the car).


You cannot obtain credit for over £250 without the permission from the lender.

You wouldn't need to.

You cannot act as a company director.

You weren't planning to.

You cannot take any part in the promotion, formation or management of a limited company (LTD) without the permission of the court.

You're £80k in the hole and wanting to be a pilot - setting up a company ain't high on your list of things to do.


You cannot trade in any business under any other name unless you inform all persons concerned of the bankruptcy.

See above.

You may not practice as a Charted Accountant / Lawyer.

Well you're not qualified anyway.

You may not act as a Justice of the peace (JP).

An unpaid position you are unlikely to get until middle age.

You may not become an member of parliament.

OK

You may not become a member of the local authority.

The council don't have a corporate jet fleet.

Your credit is affected for many years after the annulment.

7 years. Live without a credit card - I do.

You may be publicly examined in court.

For about 5 minutes followed by a judge banging a gavel and wiping away your £80k debt. Possibly the best 5 minutes of your life.




I know several pilots currently flying who have either been bankrupt, are likely to do so or who are in the IVA process. It has no bearing. Gordon Brown trimmed bankruptcy down from 7 years to 2 soon after entering Downing Street.

You simply cannot support a £75k debt mountain with a job in Starbucks.


WWW

[XXPLOD]

I met a friend of mine this week who is a senior bod for a large bank in Canary Wharf. His view was the worst is yet to come. Further house price falls, negative economic growth and a lot more firms going to the wall.

:(

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Another 15% off house prices in 2009 is my prediction. Negative equity will then extend to about 1 in 5 households. Any business which is consumer facing with high fixed costs and sells discretionary goods is going to get hammered.

That's all airlines.


WWW

[getoffmycloud]

People advocating bankruptcy as a means to shirking responsibilities you signed up to.... it makes me sick.... people who do this are part of the problem and should hang their heads in shame. :yuk::yuk:

A generation ago if you went bankrupt the public nature and the loss of face was for many too much to deal with. What sort of society are we in where people have so little respect for the agreements they signed up for. And you complain when managements screw pilots... hipocrites!!

Defending bankruptcy as a option is a reflection of all that is wrong in society today.... you should be made to work in Mcdonalds if needs be till you pay the money back you owe.

Why should someone else pay off your debts for you?? Just because you don't pay it the debt does not just go away it results in banks posting losses... lower returns for pension.... even government bailouts.... which leads to economic malaise.

Greed greed greed.... all because "I want to be a pilot now and can't be arsed to work and save the money"..... no f'ing backbone or self-respect if you go down the bankruptcy route.

RANT over (for now)

[Lurking123]

Hear hear.

[redsnail]

WWW,

As one who's worked many jobs to get to where I am now I am really disappointed in your support of bankruptcy as an acceptable means of discharging a debt.
:*

[heli_port]

People advocating bankruptcy as a means to shirking responsibilities you signed up to.... it makes me sick.... people who do this are part of the problem and should hang their heads in shame. http://static.pprune.org/images/smilies/pukey.gifhttp://static.pprune.org/images/smilies/pukey.gif

Agreed i worked hard to save my £150k that i am now using for my flight training.

I met a friend of mine this week who is a senior bod for a large bank in Canary Wharf. His view was the worst is yet to come. Further house price falls, negative economic growth and a lot more firms going to the wall.

http://static.pprune.org/images/smilies/sowee.gif

I was in Canary Wharf today at met with a few of my m8's from my time in the banking sector and they agree the worst is yet to come :ooh:

I know several pilots currently flying who have either been bankrupt, are likely to do so or who are in the IVA process. It has no bearing. Gordon Brown trimmed bankruptcy down from 7 years to 2 soon after entering Downing Street.

GB has allot to answer for and the sooner we vote him out of office the better.

http://www.christmas-corner.com/images/christmas-smileys/gingerbreadhouse.gif

[helimutt]

I'm still in debt, have no real assets as such, my mortgage is more than the value of my house, I have a reasonably well paid job though. Can I declare bankruptcy? Sounds like A great way out of paying off these credit cards and loans.

[spinnaker]

Bankruptcy...Hmmmm.

What does that say about a person when that's on the CV?

Let me put it like this. I will have a couple of jobs coming up next year shovelling chicken ****. Who gets the jobs? it wont be bankrupts that's for sure. In a couple of years time, I hope the guys on the end of that shovel can get either a promotion with me, in sales, or farm management, or get better jobs elsewhere. One thing I know, I wont be employing bankrupts. I need responsible people, and I need winners, even when it come to shovelling ****e.

Take care guys, don't take that easy option. Personal bankruptcy is different from a ltd. co. going bust.

[helimutt]

Just for clarity, I have never ever been asked if I was a bankrypt at interview. I have never seen it on a CV either. How would your future employer ever know? Just wondering.

ps, I dont intend to declare bankruptcy, was only joking.

[chrisbl]

I hope that bankrupcy is not seen as an easy way out of ones obligations. One would hope that the guys sitting up front in charge of a couple of hundred souls have a sounder moral base than that.

As an employer, the best way to predict future behaviour is to look at past behaviour. A welcher will always tend to be a welcher.

[heli_port]

Just for clarity, I have never ever been asked if I was a bankrypt at interview. I have never seen it on a CV either. How would your future employer ever know? Just wonderingDepends on your employer. I guess they could carry out a credit check etc but quite a few application forms that i have seen recently have that magic box on asking if you have ever been declared bankrupt. My next door neighbours teenager has just applied to royal mail and they certainly asked him the bankruptcy question on the application form.

When i got my banking job all those years ago, a credit check was definetly carried out by my employer.

http://www.christmas-corner.com/images/christmas-smileys/presents2.gif

[Wodka]

Oh please... some of you really do need to get off your moral high horse! the bloody banks got us into this mess buy being generally greedy and incompetent at everything they did, not from little timmy posting a 100k writedown to their balance sheet... these are the same banks who smugly used to lord it over everyone about how many billions profit they made.

If your backs against the wall with 100k round your neck and no job in the pipeline, you may be forced into it. The insolvency service look for deliberate cases, so people who plan bankruptcy may get caught out and this can lead to all sorts of restrictions.