Growing Evidence That The Upturn Is Upon Us

[heli_port]

Oh please... some of you really do need to get off your moral high horse! the bloody banks got us into this mess buy being generally greedy and incompetent at everything they did, not from little timmy posting a 100k writedown to their balance sheet... these are the same banks who smugly used to lord it over everyone about how many billions profit they made.

TBH, loans that you get for attending integrated courses are mostly secured anyhow so if the young ruffians can't pay i guess their parents will be forfitting propety etc.

[SilveR5]

WWW

you must be talking about the last thought that comes to the mind of a hopeles pilot before he is looking for a gun or attempting a 45-degree nose down!!

If this is the case, then yes..I agree

[no sponsor]

The more who declare bankruptcy, the more chances that the profession will be blacklisted by any financial institution in the future. Whether that is a good thing or not remains to be seen. Certainly, it may stop the market being overwhelmed by ATPL(f)s, and certainly put an end to those who think it is acceptable to pay to fly, or even fly for nothing. It will be a better day for us all when CTC et al close their doors.

[clear prop!!!]

As Heli-port says, the chances of £75k being unsecured debt is virtually zero so , bankruptcy is not a viable option.

As for bankruptcy itself, I'm horrified to see that anyone would advocate this as a way out of debt which you knew you were getting into.

Apart from that , you would become 'sub-prime' for decades to come.
o chance of a mortgage, car loan, mobile phone account, credit card etc etc for a lot more than seven years.

Anyway, the good news is it's christmas and oil is $35 and didn't hit the $200 predicted by our resident financial experts for this festive date!

Whilst the price of oil is branded as a 'sideshow' here, I think it would have become more than a sideshow for a number of airlines if it had hit $200!!!

Merry Xmas and let's hope for a better New Year than predicted! :)

[Black Knat]

Is it hardly surprising that individuals see declaring themselves as bankrupt as a good option when they find themselves in the poo? I was taught you pay back what you owe, and as a business if you can't then you go bust. Seems these days that has changed and all businesses have to do is declare themselves essential to the existance of the economy/world/universe and then they get lots of money from taxpayers. Let them go bust and then jail the corrupt and greedy individuals that have caused this problem! Will be a warning for future individuals who want to make a quick buck from the system.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Its very easy to play the puritan. I'm slightly to the right of Norman Tebbit myself.

Nevertheless. The morality of going bankrupt does have to be carefully balanced against the morality of the money lenders. I just cannot make my heart bleed for the banks nor the airlines nor the training industry that have conspired to put Wannabes into MASSIVE debt secured against a flimsy dream.

The protection of the bankruptcy Court is just that. Protection of the individual in hopeless debt against those that they owe. Without such a protection mechanism the banks would end up owning people. Morally that is unacceptable. A Wannabe owing £80k might never find a job that paid enough for them to ever escape the interest on their loan. Conceivably they could spend their entire adult life working to pay the bankers.

Whilst there is of course a requirement for people to borrow responsibly there is just as large, if not greater, requirement for the money lenders to lend responsibly. The bible is pretty clear about money lenders and temples.

I contend that it was totally irresponsible for the banks and the commercial companies involved to place so many wannabes so deeply in debt on such a flimsy basis. That some Wannabes honestly find themselves so hopelessly in debt now the industry has turned down is neither suprising nor their fault. That some entered the debt knowing that ultimately bankruptcy was their safety net is nothing more than rational risk assessment.

The result of such relaxed lending was to spark a cancer in the airline industry. The symptoms were self sponsored type ratings, working for peanuts on a trial basis and starting your first day of work owing more than a mortgage and thus being effectively bonded for the sum the size of a mortgage. Further the easy credit just increased the supply of pilots and thereby undermined the value of those already in the industry. Irresponsible lending just caused a glut of new pilots to the detriment of all. Do not lament its passing.

Be clear that the consequences of personal bankruptcy in 2008 are minor. You will not be blacklisted from credit. Your CV will not be rendered worthless. People will not shun you socially. The law cares little and the jails are certainly far too full of and far too well supplied with violent criminals for the threat of jail to be anything more than theoretical. The bankruptcy itself only lasts for 2 years and its requirements are not onerous for most young wannabes who have neither a family home or family commitments.

The Wannabe or youngish pilot with £75K of unsecured debt is not a rare species. I expect in 2009 there will be hundreds who will seek, and secure, the protection of the bankruptcy courts. When you understand what money is and how it is created you will find it hard to think that anybody has lost anything by a Wannabe going bankrupt. 8/9ths of the money never existed in the first place. Look up Money As Debt or the topic of Fractional Reserve Banking to learn why if you don't already know.

Wannabes need to be fully versed in the issue of bankruptcy for many reasons. Perhaps the most straightforward reason is to know what they are in competition with. Other Wannabes will be racking up £75k worth of debt to pay for fast track training, maybe even a type rating. They then go bust and free of interest repayments can take a job flying for food and still manage. Meanwhile Joe Wannabe who would never dream of going bankrupt or risking reckless debt is let plodding away for years getting trained and could never stretch as far as a self sponsored type rating. He's crowded out of the marketplace by the reckless who is willing to use bankruptcy.

Without knowing about this risk our hero, Joe Wannabe, is playing against a loaded deck.


Its a very worthy topic of Wannabe debate. I know several at various points in the process. Several have gone bankrupt and its worked like a charm. its a fact and anybody saying you can't say the truth is either a censor, a tyrant or a vested interest.


And anyway. In 2009/10 there will be more established pilots in the bankruptcy courts than there will be wannabes. This is going to be worse than the 1991 recession and therefore more airlines will go bust than then. It was horrific then. It will be worse now. This is not going to be a Sept11th style dip. The BIG crashes will be winter 2009. If you are a wannabe stay as clear as possible.


WWW

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

To put a different spin on this, why should I pay back the money I owe if people who borrowed knowing they most probably wouldn't be able to pay it back go bankrupt? Why the hell should I? Let's all have our debts written off...and while we're at it let's get all trainee Lawyers, Doctors and Vets who borrowed similar amounts of money under the same loan agreement with the same bank, claim bankruptcy as well.


There you've identified the problem that causes the terror in the eyes of the banks, the Government and the System.

They are terrified of the return of jingle mail. That's where thousands, tens of thousands, start to simply post their house keys back to the banks. The house is worth tens of thousands of pounds less than they owe on it, they have no savings, few assets and maxed out credit cards. They are men of straw. By going bankrupt they can walk away from it all and then start again. If this goes mainstream then the Western system of debt slavery falls apart.

They have to keep the majority in debt for the majority of their adult lives. It is only by being in debt that they will continue to be good little workers, hold down multiple jobs per household and continue to operate in the economy. The magic force that gets people out of their cosy beds and ferreting around each day running the modern economy. The fruits of which for the wealthy who own all the Capital (about 4% of the world) are the wonderful comfortable lives they lead with health, travel, communications and recreational technology that would have been unimaginable only 50 years ago.

A perfectly viable system and in most ways better for everyone than, say, Communism.

However, they know that they've pushed it too far this time. Gotten too many too far into debt and been too obvious about the immense profits from doing so. So the System is scared. Scared of debt deflation. Scared of debt default. Scared of an attitude change away from rampant consumerism. Scared of civil unrest if the banks fail. Scared of civil disorder if people start walking away from their debts en masse.

They've overcooked it this time and they know it.


Lets be honest. You owe £75k to the bank, you have a pilots license but no job, the interest repayment is £1000 a month and you can only get a job on minimum wage. There is no realistic way out of that. It doesn't matter is the debt is unsecured or secured on a house in negative equity. You're going to go bankrupt and happily if you are young or have no particular family commitments it is going to be easy and painless.


Morality is a sideshow. A bit like oil.


WWW



ps Clear Prop! I've looked back and can't find any poster here giving their opinion that oil would reach $200 so please stop implying that there were.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

It is depressing yes.

The world won't end though. I truly believe that the web is going to make as much difference to this century as the printing press did to the last. What was once - a decade ago - fairly esoteric discussion on things like monetarism, finance and economics is now readily available. People are becoming less ignorant, more informed, less naive.

The world as it actually is is becoming more and more apparent to more and more people.

Already the CEBR are predicting a UK economic contraction of 2.9% for 2009. That is absolutely massive. At least half as big again as the worst of the 1991 recession. Prepare and plan accordingly.


WWW

[The Mixmaster]

Just thought I'd break from all this depressing chat by pointing out that Aer Lingus, BMI Regional, Jet2 and DHL are all hiring low hour pilots. Merry xmas!

[clear prop!!!]

WWW,

ps Clear Prop! I've looked back and can't find any poster here giving their opinion that oil would reach $200 so please stop implying that there were.

Well...as always will be right, but I'm pretty sure it was there on the 'downturn' thread.

Judging by the number of other refs to it others, too must have seen it.

However,...I did find this post.... by your good self Oil will touch $150 a barrel by Christmas. That's my guess, in print, lets see come Boxing Day. (april 28th Downturn thread)

OK not $200 but no where near $35!!

[Blindside]

Oil hit US$147 in July.... so a prediction of it touching $150 before Xmas was almost spot on. He made the prediction in April afterall :)

[tigermagicjohn]

Bankruptcy, and the morality of the lenders, you must be kidding me?

Most pilots have probably been begging on their knees to get some of those loans, that they can not afford to pay back. I would say those considering Bankruptcy - would should not be fit for the job. They have shown a serious lack of judgement, which I would not want any pilot having when I was flying with him.

The pilot would have to be Dumb to believe there would be a job waiting for him as soon as he finished his CPL/IR with 200 - 250 hours.
With some research in advance, you should also calculate, expect to wait 2 to 5 years to build hours before even being considerd for a job as a pilot, years which is a part of your school and education to build hours, to gain more experience and training.

I refused to take the responability of putting my mothers house in jeopardy 20 years ago, and thats why I am now trying a little later then expected. But now I can fund it mostly myself, trough my own business and own hard work.
I did not want my actions to cause my mother to loose her house.

Encouraging someone to speculate on bankruptcy, is not right. I believe if this is your dream, then find ways to make the school as cheap as possible, to lower your risk - pilots need to be able to make risk assesments, in case of emergencies, however some prospective students are not able to do that about their own life. So if their own life crashes, how will that make them a secure pilot?

Many should not spend all in one go, my instructor now when I was retaking my PPL again told me to pace my flying, so I get all the important things I need. I had planned to go over to the US, and blow 10K on flying, just to build some hours, as he said, dont go just flying holes in the sky, you might need the money later!

Now I am lucky that I did not start on scratch, I have still 120 hours logged from 20 years ago, which I can use towards my licenses, and that saves me very much money, compaired to someone starting fresh today.

But if you are young and new, you have plenty of time - make it run over 3 to 5 years to get all you need, and work at the same time, and make personal sacrifises. If you can't do that now, then maybe this is not the right education for you - it's about more then flying - you do not want to be under pressure that you going to make your family loose their home. Or maybe you don't care or understand this? If so good riddance to you.

[helimutt]

and on a happier note, banks have been seen to dramatically reduce the number of loans available on offer. EG a £5k loan a year ago could be had for about 13.5% interest. Today, it was reported that this will cost between 20-24% with some lenders charging between 50-70%!!!!!
I doubt many will get loans to fund flying next year!

[getoffmycloud]

"morality is a sideshow".... utter crap... only for spineless cowards and convicts.

[TwinAisle]

Just to spin the argument around.

I'm not an ATPL holder, and have no intention of becoming one, whatever the economic conditions (I'm a PPL, I know my limits!) but I have spent many years working at the higher levels of management in the airline game.

The ATPL training market has many of the features of the housing market. People have been encouraged to "follow their dreams" and get that licence/buy that house. Not to worry that you can't really afford it - your salary will rise/your house price will rise.

Until it doesn't, one day.

What has been driving house prices is NOT shortage of supply.
What has been driving training costs is NOT a shortage of recently qualified pilots.

What is driving the whole thing was cheap money - too much money in the system causes rampant inflation. Turning the money off - as has now happened - has shown clearly just how much people were relying on cheap money to keep the lights on. The market works, friends.

We are paying the price now of seeing house prices fall since it is sooo hard to get a mortgage, and almost impossible to get one that covers more than about 75% of the house price. I would bet that we are going to see ATPL training costs start to fall soon, on the same logic - perhaps not far, but fall they will.

Over the next few years, the shortage of capital is going to stuff a few more airlines. Whether it stuffs as many as WWW mentioned - jury's out. I hate to say it, but I wouldn't bet against him. Whilst capital is expensive, and passengers are nervous about spending money, this is going to hurt....

The demand for qualified pilots is going to fall, and the number of qualified candidates looking for work will rise. For new graduates, it is going to get VERY hard - I'm already seeing a massive rise in CVs from new pilots at the organisations I work with.

This is going to have two effects - firstly, there will be downward pressure on salaries. Sorry folks. Secondly, when the downturn ends - and it will - the pilot shortage will be seen again. If capital is still hard to come by, and the banks are more nervous about lending lots of money to young applicants, then either these folks will have to forget it, raise the money some other way, or - wait for this - the airlines will have to start shelling out for training again. Why don't airlines now pay for training if they can help it? Simple - there have been enough people out there who want the jobs, who have had easy lending bankers, and access to training companies who kept telling them that the only way is up.

Right now, training for an ATPL looks like about as good an idea as buying a house on a 100% mortgage. Do it if you can afford to do it without saddling yourself with so much debt that you won't be able to live/eat/payback from your fallback career. If you are looking to do this with debt that you absolutely, definitely must become an airline pilot to pay off - you need your head examined, frankly. You may get lucky - you may get that first job, many do even now - but if you want to play in this casino, that's up to you. Please don't cause the banks - and the customers of banks - even more angst by thinking "well, I'll go bankrupt". The banks have had their lesson in the moral imperative, and I would bet that they will be spreading that love soon to all of us....

TA

[Wodka]

One of the things that I think is really positive from this meltdown is that more people are starting to wake up a bit and see the world of corporations and capitalism for what it is... an interesting video I recently saw on the web is posted here for you, have a look...

www.storyofstuff.com (http://www.storyofstuff.com/)

Topslide6:
Tough tits. Can't afford to pay the money back because you can't get a flying job? Then it should never have been borrowed...and it's YOUR fault, not the banks. If you need to pick vegtables or work in McDonalds to pay it off, then do so.

Just to pick up on one of your points here, I think your view is a tad extreme saying that its your fault you can't get a job! And I'm sorry but working in McDonalds is not going to service a debt of £1000/month plus living allowances is it?

[clear prop!!!]

Just to pick up on one of your points here, I think your view is a tad extreme saying that its your fault you can't get a job! And I'm sorry but working in McDonalds is not going to service a debt of £1000/month plus living allowances is it?

Neither is a F/O salary at the bottom end of the TP scale (£19-24k).

Now, that isn't a result of the current climate, ..it's been that way for years.

Fact is, for years Integrated FTO's have sold the 'step into a jet job' scenario as the norm, when it never was.

Now more than ever it's a case of buyer beware.

There are still jobs out there, but you will have to work your way up to them and that will be extremely difficult with a mountain of debt to service.

Now, in amongst WWW's attempts to prove his in-depth knowledge of economics and bankruptcy law, there is a very simple and wise underlying piece of advice which, is very sound...

Avoid the sales patter of the integrated FTO's and CTC schemes,..don't burden yourself with any debt you can't service other than perhaps a CDL.

Forget Integrated, take time, and whatever job is on offer, even if it does involve a propeller.

But PLEASE, don't come into this business thinking that bankruptcy is the simple plan B!! That stinks to high heavens!!!!!

[JohnRayner]

I think personal dignity is a fine thing, and like to think I have a measure of it myself, but recent events in the world of money do make me wonder whether or not it's worth the indebted newbie making the effort to be anything other than pragmatic when dealing with their debts.

After all, banks etc. appear to have been playing silly arses left right and center over the past few years, and now that the poo's splattering the walls, it's all government bail-outs with tax payers cash, but short of a few well publicised sword fallers, I wonder how many high up bankers are feeling the pinch at the minute? I don't know, but I'd wager a small amount that not many of them are.

Likewise, the really. REALLY rich have elevated not paying their dues to society to an art form practised (to great personal financial gain) by a number of lawyers and accountants, and non of them think there's anything wrong with that. Far from it, in fact.

If non of the above have any qualms with fiddling what systems there are, then why not the man in the street, or the newbie fATPL with a "mere" 100k of debt?

Regards

JR

(an individual who's only debt is his extremely affordable 60% mortgage, but would happily poo all over any financial institution if he ever found himself in such a "cake or death" large debt scenario!)

(but who also would not get himself into large debt initially if he thought he couldn't pay it off...)

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

I would say those considering Bankruptcy - would should not be fit for the job. They have shown a serious lack of judgement, which I would not want any pilot having when I was flying with him.

The pilot would have to be Dumb to believe there would be a job waiting for him as soon as he finished his CPL/IR with 200 - 250 hours.


I'm afraid you'll find that the modern Skipper is often spending his day in the flightdeck with FO's who owe more to the bank than he does and they have only the banger in the car park and their license to their name. Your hard-ass attitude wouldn't be popular.

Wannabes WEREN'T dumb to believe there would be a job waiting for them. In 2006 a CTC cadet coming back from New Zealand had the agonizing choice of several airlines and 6 months later going straight to BA shorthaul. Who could possibly blame a wannabe for signing up to a loan from a world class bank to attend a well respected training organisation that was happily and rapidly placing cadets in household name airlines? I tell you what - the Bankruptcy Judge certainly won't blame them.

WWW


ps Clear Prop! So, I called the house price crash and you poo poo'd me. I called the recession and you poo poo'd me. I called the oil price peak and you poo poo me. I'm starting the think you just don't like me.. :eek: I'm calling a wave of personal bankruptcy - at whatever stage of wannabeism you are at its as well to be prepared and knowledgeable about it.

[cc2180]

Oh you called it did you WWW?

You mean you called it 2 years ago to stop people graduating into this? No. The wannabes who are worst affected by this recession (recent graduates) are the same people who read your statements about the "golden age" of the wannabe.

[Sciolistes]

Nevertheless. The morality of going bankrupt does have to be carefully balanced against the morality of the money lenders. I just cannot make my heart bleed for the banks nor the airlines nor the training industry that have conspired to put Wannabes into MASSIVE debt secured against a flimsy dream.
I don't see a place for morality at all, it is a system and the banks, the populace and the government are slaves to it.
8/9ths of the money never existed in the first place.
And the rest! It is interesting looking at how Britain and America handled their respective economies (sub-prime aside for the moment). Britain has been steadily reducing its reserve requirements over the decades. We used to use to control the amount of money in the system (read creating artificial booms). Now there is no minimum reserve requirement the BoE decides what each Bank must deposit. But it is now an average of 3%, their new policy is not to use that as an economic instrument any longer. No wonder, it can't get any lower. The US on the other hand has a more conservative monetarism policy. Expect the US to recover sooner and recover fully. The UK with its bloated welfare state, spent options and over dependence on the stymied finance industry will be shadow of its former self for many years to come.
I understand what you're saying about banking and responsible lending but in my opinion the onus is firmly on the client. If they cannot afford to borrow the money then tough....don't borrow it.
It is easy to think that we have significant control over our finances, but the sad reality is that it is simply about the supply of money in the system verses the debt and interest. If a situation arises where suddenly the supply of money is reduced below a certain point then people default on their payments and the system implodes as is happening now. Nobody can safely say how much at risk they are because they will not know how dependent on credit their employer (present or future) is. Those that existed hand to mouth on credit were the first to go - in terms of airlines Zoom, Silverjet, XL, etc.
The result of such relaxed lending was to spark a cancer in the airline industry.
As yes, but without it there wouldn't have been a boom that arguably many more people have benefited from...at least temporarily. Will the BoE re-write its monetarism policy for moderation?
99% of pilot training in the UK has been bankrolled by the HSBC (including mine). Now, in my dealings with them I have to say they've been very responsible (I have my mortgage with them as well)...getting the money was not simply a case of showing up and asking for it. I had to prove I had the capability to pay it back.
I agree with the latter quote, I wanted a top up loan of 8k from HSBC. I had to come prepared with a CV and what amounted to a business plan. They also wanted evidence of my ability to get a job so it was fortunate that I completed a GAPAN assessment prior to starting out. That was 2005.
They are terrified of the return of jingle mail. That's where thousands, tens of thousands, start to simply post their house keys back to the banks. The house is worth tens of thousands of pounds less than they owe on it, they have no savings, few assets and maxed out credit cards.
I actually think the opposite is true. I get the impression that many of the banks want to repossess sooner than later. The earlier they can convert high risk unpaid debt into some sort of asset the better, even at a loss. For them it is all about liquidity right now, and anything that delays the inevitable just increases the risk.
Just thought I'd break from all this depressing chat by pointing out that Aer Lingus, BMI Regional, Jet2 and DHL are all hiring low hour pilots. Merry xmas!
Quite so. I have also noticed a small number airlines advertising for low houred chaps and chapesses in the last few weeks (luxair, Slovak, Jetairlfy, Airalps, Carpatair for starters).

[Rob's Dad]

Mixmaster

I'm normally an upbeat sort of guy, but it's misleading to suggest DHL and bmir are currently recruiting, they may have been selecting recently but I suggest you will not get a job with them in the short-term. I'm in the hold pool (along with several others I know) for bmir but there is no indication at all if/when we will get the long awaited call for a place on a TR. If we do get called forward then presumably someone else gets an indefinite wait in the pool: they took 6 FOs last year.

I got the following from DHL in October.
"...we do not have any vacancies at present and we already have candidates in a holding pool for 2009, ....."

Add to that the threat of redundancy looming over me in my current job and I think the doom and gloom on here is very real: please everyone think carefully before you commit.

[Blindside]

I think the morality call is a tough one. A bit of adversity is character building.

If you have made some wrong decisions, world events have turned against you etc and bankruptcy is your only option to relieve the never ending stress, then OK. If you planned bankruptcy as an easy option all along (or early in your training) then hopefully you will be found out and it will be a weight around your neck for future employment chances for years to come.

As somebody has already pointed out, that money may be written off for the individual but it will impact someone in the economy even if it is only the shareholders in the lending institutions. So again it is the investors who get hit.

On the flip side, if the supposedly brilliant brains did not see this coming why should the individuals carry the can? The top boys can waste or lose $billions and it is the steady and sensible who end up carrying the can in terms of higher taxes and lower interest on their hard earned and post tax savings.

UK PLC is a mess. A massive public sector, a huge underclass who expect everything whilst contributing nothing and costing us a fortune, a government out of touch and ideas......

Happy New Year! :)

[BEagle]

The mortgage I took out in 1984 will be paid of in full next year. It was for £34K.

Since then we've seen the boom and slump at least twice, yuppie-era Thatcher greed when little gits in shiny suits and 3-ser BMWs played at being estate agents.....

If you assume the real value increased by 5% per annum, then (1.05)**25 = 3.386 and the house should now be worth £115136. Actually it isn't - it's around £185K in today's market. Which is about 7% per annum. But idiots who thought that the ridiculously high prices for 'property' were the key to their loadsamoney wealth simply wouldn't face the reality of a bubble which was bound to burst - and yet hadn't politicians stated categorically that they would never allow 'boom and bust; again?

The problem is ready access to credit for those who cannot afford it. Kids don't save pocket money for iPods or other overpriced electric toys, some idiotic store gives them a crdit card and off they go. Their debts get bigger and bigger and they think that paying off the interest is sufficient....

That attitude has to change. One way would be to require all credit card bills to be settled at the end of the following month. As happens in Germany, for example. My German colleagues couldn't believe that, having bought a €2500 air ticket with a Visa card I was only required to pay off £25 when the bill came, although the balance would then attract interest. That simply dosen't happen in Germany!

Even Thatcher said that you can't have something which you can't afford.

As for airline training; well, aptitude and personal quality testing, cadet selection and airline-specific MPL training against a bond may be the way ahead. Huge numbers of utter no-hopers who you would never want on an airline flight deck have gone through self-sponsored training and, even worse, TR training and yet, surprise surprise, no-one actually wants them because they lack the required personal qualities..

[rogerg]

Oh you called it did you WWW?

You mean you called it 2 years ago to stop people graduating into this? No. The wannabes who are worst affected by this recession (recent graduates) are the same people who read your statements about the "golden age" of the wannabe.

Hey WWW, is this true?

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

cc2180 wrote:

Oh you called it did you WWW?

You mean you called it 2 years ago to stop people graduating into this? No. The wannabes who are worst affected by this recession (recent graduates) are the same people who read your statements about the "golden age" of the wannabe.

I went totally publicly BEAR on PPRuNe in Sept '07. Prior to that I had been making bearish noises since February '07 when I sold my house to rent one because of the impending house price crash. So bearish noises for 22 months and totally bear for 16 months. Anyone listening to me need not be graduating into this mess - so yes, I did call it cc2180.

My Golden Age comments were for 2005. That's about to be 4 years ago. I don't mind being held to my record. But hold me to my actual record instead of a fictional one.

For a taste of what I was saying - this might suprise newbies here - read this, April 1st 2005:


http://www.pprune.org/1821791-post18.html



Things really have picked up since the end of last summer. I now can happily look back at the guys I started PPL instructing with in 1999 and they have ALL got airline jobs now. May have taken a while to get the last ones over the fence post 9/11 but now its happened and happened fast. The later ones have had multiple offers to choose from even.

Virtually all the proper AOC airlines in the UK are hiring at the moment. I've heard that most of the second tier Air Operators are also hiring as a result. Often with rapidly falling hours/experience requirements.

There is an air of 1996 in the wind. The major airline recession of the 1990 - 1994 period was over. After years of no movement airlines starting hiring again.

Which led to a sudden influx of interest in flight training and suddenly everyone was clamouring to get their licenses issued/re-validated. By 1997 there were loads of people chasing still only a realtively few jobs. By late 1998 hiring had dried up the pool and by 1999 people were coming straight out of school into the jets with seemingly regular success. 2000 and 2001 were brilliant for hiring until Sept.

There are a lot of people out there who have trained and got nowhere in the last 4 years who will re-enter the market as it improves. There are lots currently in training. Maybe 2 years from now thing will get back to a 1999 situation for low time Wannabes.[B] (edit in Dec '08 - I think the April 2007 hiring market did turn out to be just as good as 1999)

Just after Sept 11 2001 I wrote at length that timing was key to this business. I suggested it was simply not worth trying to train and enter the business for at least 4 years. To do so would invite the misery of pouring money into license revalidation whilst collecting nothing more than rejection letters from airlines. Years of such misery has broken the will of many an aspiring pilot.

At least now, with real, sustained, robust movement in hiring - you have the happy light at the end of the tunnel to keep you morale up.

The terms and conditions are certainly worse than only 5 years ago. Then you joined an airline and signed a 3 yr bond and that was it. You were an FO. Now you are likely to sign a longer bond, paid for by a loan from your bank and be on a reduced salary for the privilige.

Hopefully that will all disappear in coming years as airlines compete to hire the available competent labour. Well - one can only hope

Cheers

WWW

[cc2180]

I went totally publicly BEAR on PPRuNe in Sept '07


oh really? 10 months before, in the middle of their course you decided to suggest it might not be prudent to train now.

wow, im impressed. Where are all the wannabes thanking you for going out of your way to warn them off finishing training i wonder?

Training doesnt start immediately. By the time wannabes read about your golden age and had set the wheels in motion for their training, it was 2006. A year later you go public telling them to stop? Interesting.

Funny how often you post these days about the one time you maybe mentioned somewhere that a possibility of a recession could be greeting them upon graduation.

Big pat on the back to you. You spend the majority of your free time looking for it on an internet forum, so ill just give you the big round of applause that you try hard for.

:D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D

I feel sorry for these people; they are completely screwed, and all they get is you rubbing their faces in it.

Next years graduates you can crow to, but not this years.

[PosClimb]

Secondly, when the downturn ends - and it will - the pilot shortage will be seen again.

Can anyone please explain to me why any kind of pilot hiring has to be synonymous with the phrase "pilot shortage"???

Why can't it just be: "The airlines are hiring some pilots."

Why is that always turned into: "There is a pilot shortage".

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

cc2180 said On the 6th November 2007; http://www.pprune.org/3684564-post1058.html

Hi all

First timer here, off to my phase 2 in a couple of weeks. Very excited.

Was just wondering, during phase 3, if its a good thing that you have family/friends in the industry, or to try not to mention it?

Also, it says, Dress Code: Suit, or smart casual....but everyone puts on a suit right?

Thx


I'd been bearish most of 2007 and totally bear for months by the time you asked the question above. So I wasn't too late to have offered you a timely warning - did you take heed I wonder?

I'm not rubbing people faces in anything. I've been laughed at ridiculed and called a doom monger for the last 18 months not for my own glory but as part of a free service to Wannabes.

What you might not appreciate is the fact they I am plenty worried about my own airline and my own job. I have taken steps to reduce my spending, pay off debts and generally batten down the hatches. I am highly sceptical that my own employment will continue unassailed by the coming tsunami of airline failures and cutbacks. If I lose my job I'm just as stuffed as a 200hr Wannabe. Probably more so. I'm not writing from the comfort of retirement here.

When things flatten off then turn up I very much look forward to writing about it again.

WWW

[cc2180]

hahaha, knew it.

Typical troll behaviour from someone with nothing to answer with. Go trawling through old posts to try to find dirt. Really says alot about you.

Yeah I took the advice, and my postings arent fuelled by personal regret.

The whole point was about recent graduates who started upon your advice and now are being crow'ed to by your very self.

A point which you so conveniently skip.


not for my own glory but as part of a free service to Wannabes


Reading all the irrelevant trumpet posts you've made over the last few months, im pretty sure noone believes that. Maybe even yourself if you're honest.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

I don't see how your timing works. A recent grad following my advice in 2005 would have needed to have spent 3 years in the training system. Anyone starting training over the last 22 months and reading my views would have read nothing other than caution, extreme caution or end-of-the-world caution.

Sorry I didn't predict a house price crash, serious recession and the oil peak even earlier than I did but I only do this as a hobby as most of the time I'm an airline pilot. :hmm:

I don't need to crow about anything but when people have a go at you or claim you predicted $200 oil then it grates a little.

WWW

[TwinAisle]

Can anyone please explain to me why any kind of pilot hiring has to be synonymous with the phrase "pilot shortage"???

Why can't it just be: "The airlines are hiring some pilots."

Why is that always turned into: "There is a pilot shortage".

To clarify - there is always a need for a drip feed of pilots, to cover retirements and the usual gentle growth. In the background, there is a pool of available pilots who can fit the jobs. Over the last few years, we've seen a very large growth in commercial aviation - particularly from the low cost sector, and in Asia - which has put things out of kilter - leading to a pilot shortage. Trust me on this, having done the jobs I have done, it was pretty tough to get qualified candidates a few months back.

The training schools geared up to fill the hole - nature and the market abhorr vacuums after all. Now, as demand for pilots is falling, and falling FAST - it is going to get harder for a 300 hr pilot to get that first position.

Sorry, but that is a fact. WWW to his credit spotted this some time ago, and applied the adage of "what goes up...." This industry is notoriously cyclic, and we have been seeing some worrying signs for a while now. It will pick up again, it always does, but I am not prepared to put a bet on when.

On a different point - I don't see the point of people laying into WWW on here - I am reminded of a friend of mine who uses the expression "do you want to hear what you want to hear, or do you want the truth".... It must be incredibly frustrating to be part way through training and realising that the industry is shrinking around you, but there is no point shooting the messenger.... many of my friends work in various parts of this industry, in various roles and at various levels, and do you know what? We're not looking forward with much anticipation right now....

TA

[cc2180]

Yes, and I dont mean to be rude. He does give some good advice.
But the sheer volume of "told you so" posts has to be reduced. No matter how satisfying they may be to type.

It doesnt help them as they were already doomed before they started, before the warnings were posted. You cant blame them or accuse them of stupidity.

Unfortunately training takes longer to finish than an economy takes to go under.

Luckily I didnt get in on first attempt, else I would be screwed too. I can admit that. But when I come out of the pipeline in ~2 years, some of that timing is down to pprune for which I am grateful. Rest is luck!

[chrisbl]

I'm afraid you'll find that the modern Skipper is often spending his day in the flightdeck with FO's who owe more to the bank than he does and they have only the banger in the car park and their license to their name. Your hard-ass attitude wouldn't be popular.


I am sure it would not but then I come from a profession which is sufficiently hard assed to stop me working at my full potential if I did go insolvent.

So my personal choices include a very conservative approach to debt.

The real villains are the airlines who with their co-conspirators the FTOs are are letting a lot of people who are unsuitable for the airlines go in for the training with little hope of getting a job. They know the know the aviation business so they know full well what they are doing.

The banks' job on the other hand is to lend money not run airlines. So dont blame them for the lending.

If no one went to any FTO next year the FTOs would be asking the airlines for help. The airlines would be in a real quandry because without helping, the future training capacity would disappear and the airlines might have to bring back their own training schemes.

That would be a good thing; admittedly there would be fewer in training but they would be selected as the most employable by the airline, not as the ones who can borrow the money easiest as seems the current FTO philosophy.

[no sponsor]

The reality was that there was no 'Golden Age' for the majority of wannabes. If you were in CTC, then yes. If you were lucky at FTE/OATS and your name was put forward for the SSP schemes then yes. On the whole, there are plenty of people I know who didn't get jobs. Don't be deluded.

And the market has changed again. In the last recession, the experienced guys got hired. Now, I reckon you've got more chance if you are inexperienced. Ryanair are only interviewing those without experience. I see Thomas Cook has taken on CTC cadets, as are EZY. My friends who were made redundant from XL are having no such luck. 2000hrs of NG time would have had you at the front of the queue in the last downturn, now it seems to count for nothing.

The industry is buggered. That should tell you not to count on the profession as a career.

[TwinAisle]

The real villains are the airlines who with their co-conspirators the FTOs are are letting a lot of people who are unsuitable for the airlines go in for the training with little hope of getting a job.

Uh? How much say do you think most airlines have in selecting recruits for the FTOs?

The rest of your post made inherent sense, IMHO. The airlines I know will react to a pilot shortage when they need to, and right now, that is not now.

TA

[clear prop!!!]

I don't need to crow about anything but when people have a go at you or claim you predicted $200 oil then it grates a little.

I take it that's aimed at me!

For the record I NEVER said that you had predicted $200 a barrel by Xmas! And for the record it was NOT you.

I simply stated that our resident financial experts (we have plenty), had predicted $200 by Xmas and its now about $37. The post is there (or was) by someone else, but I can't find it, but I remember it well as will others.

You only predicted $150 by Xmas, but as your fan club pointed out that meant ANY time BEFORE xmas!..so, I stand corrected and offer my humble and sincere apologies for my earlier ref to that.

Don't take it that every post is aimed at you or we might get the impression
you have a ego problem, and ...I'm not saying you have.

Chill out, it's the season of good will :):)

[Blindside]

And I take it that was aimed at me.....

Clear Prop - what are you trying to belittle me for? Who has the ego problem???

WWW was correct, or as close to make any difference.

There seems to be a number of posters who appear to be quite smug/bitter/annoyed. WWW doesn't seem to be one of them. That's how I read it anyway.

I don't understand the attempted kicking he gets on here.

[clear prop!!!]

Blindside,....Sorry, un-called for and nothing personal

regards

CP

[Blindside]

cheers, appreciate it. Merry Xmas :)

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Like the glass of superb Giessen Estate sauvignon blanc winking at me from the kitchen table I am perfectly chilled.

Everyone who contributes here has me sincere thanks. You make this what it is.

WWW

[chrisbl]

Uh? How much say do you think most airlines have in selecting recruits for the FTOs?


Absolutely not - but that was not what I said. They are responsible for a system which has the FTOs where they are in the scheme of things and have all these wannabes being turned out with little responsibility falling on the airlines.

The FTOs and the airlines go hand in hand and the systems works for both of them, the FTOs have all the trainees coming in and the airlines take their pick with no little cost to them. Free pilots who have forked out a fortune to pay for the opportunity for an interview with no guarantee of a job.

In other areas this would be described as a scam.

[Lurking123]

I think that anyone who takes any of the advice/guidance/opnion offered on Proone as the reason (not) to spend tens of thousands of pounds is rather naive. I would also say that anyone offering such advice should be treat with a degree of scepticism.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Imagine a world where nobody could borrow more than £10,000 unless it was for a house on a mortgage and no home owner had any excess equity. (this is the world of 2009)

£75k for an Integrated course followed by a £20k Boeing/Bus type rating would be the sole preserve of those with millionaire parents.


In this brave new world what would airline eventually have to do once again?


The credit crunch could be the best thing that ever happened to Wannabes..

WWW

[TwinAisle]

I think your argument only holds water here, ChrisBL, if airlines were out there, tapping people on the shoulder and saying "go train as a pilot, pay for it, and we'll definitely give you a job".

It doesn't work like that. The FTOs are businesses who have reacted to perceived need and made money out of the climbing market. They have geared up to produce a lot of pilots to fill that need, and have attracted a lot of people to their courses who, had they been presented to the airlines first, would have been discouraged from spending their money (trust me, I've seen the CVs...)

The airlines then pick and choose from the people who present themselves for jobs.

If there has been any mis-selling, I would suggest the people responsible are the pushier FTOs, not the airlines.

In time, if the pilot supply dries up, and/or the quality drops, then the airlines will act, perhaps even re-introducing sponsorships etc. But right now, why should they bother? Sorry - commercial reality there....

TA

[david_gannon]

Well i for one look out for WWW posts, he always seems on the ball (unfortunately), it's put a hold on my attempts to get into this job

[JohnRayner]

The re-introduction of airline sponsorship. Talk of this thing called MPL. Hm.

I'll be honest. In the context of other research into the aviation industry, and the wider economic outlook in general, I too have found WWW's comments extremely helpful, they might even save me from needlessly spending cash in the near future!

If it all sounds a bit laboured, well, having witnessed it myself first hand, I can concur that boundless youthful optimism in the face of stark fact can need a bit of a bludgeoning to create some balance in opinion.

Sniping at the messenger is so unhip, baby.

Regards,

JR

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

that boundless youthful optimism in the face of stark fact can need a bit of a bludgeoning to create some balance in opinion.


Nail - head.

Thank you, WWW

[Aerospace101]

WWW;

The credit crunch could be the best thing that ever happened to Wannabes..

For me that quote sums up the beauty of what the downturn could bring. In an ideal world the flight training bubble will have burst. Not enough students/output from training because of no credit - so the airlines have to step in.

However it wont be until there is a smoking hole in the ground when an incompetent student slips thru the system because of their ability to pay, that the airline accountants will finally take notice...

[redsnail]

Well, there's a damaged Airbus because a student of marginal capabilities slipped through the net. Mind you, he did slip through a lot of nets that should have picked up his deficiencies well before the landing incident.

See R&N for more info.

[rogerg]

However it wont be until there is a smoking hole in the ground when an incompetent student slips thru the system because of their ability to pay, that the airline accountants will finally take notice...

Any FTO that produced students that make the above, would not last long and airlines would not employ them. FTOs do expect to be paid for there services and yes it can be very expensive but rich or poor everybody has to do the same tests at the end. Maybe you think the rich kids bribe the examiners?

their ability to pay, that the airline accountants will finally take notice...
Even poor kids can be incompetent.

[Day_Dreamer]

FTO's who use a selection procedure, generally get it right and those who may not make the grade are weeded out early.
However the law of averages will always kick in and some will struggle through the course or may even fail even after selection.
Many out there believe that the ability to pay gets you the job, which is a load of "BULL.....".
The only sector not using a selection procedure is the Modular route which is one of the reasons the CAA are looking to regulate this market.
It is more likely that these "Do It On The Cheap" types will not have the same level of skills as some Modular and Integrated students, and could be seen as more of a training risk to a future employer.
SSTR students are selected by the Airline through their scheme or that of a third party, not perfect but mostly proven to reduce the risk to the client and the airline doing the training.
The illusion that SSTR students only have to turn up and pay for their course is laughable as any reputable training establishment or airline would quickly loose credibility with their clients / passengers and insurers, if that were the case.
Ryanair selection only accepts about 30-40% of applicants (Lower now as many more apply), and the other B.737 and A.320 operators have similar levels of acceptance.
This weeds out the possible training risks, be they from Modular or Integrated backgrounds.

I fly regularly with Modular and Integrated students, and will NOT enter into the who's best debate here.

How much you pay for training is also NOT an issue, however what really matters is the STANDARD of training received, and the Level attained by the student.

There are many un-employed pilots out there at the moment, but most will be back in employment over the next 18 months, providing they look globally and do not stick to home ground.
Things will get worse in 2009 but the upturn will start to appear in 2010, so anyone entering training now will be coming out into a better market post 2010.

The company I work for has a full holding pool which contains a full spectrum from 150 hour cadets to experienced pilots, but the future for them is good as new aircraft are arriving soon.
This may mean that in late 2009 the pool will be empty, and may need topping up.

Aviation has never been a secure career, the graveyard is full of airlines PAN AM, TWA, Caledonian, Laker, Dan Air, XL, Zoom to name a few.
But for those of us in the Job, its like a drug that we have to be going back to for more and more.
That office in the sky is hard to get, even harder to keep these days, but hard work will get you that job.

[Black Knat]

Airline accountants won't put a stop to low quality/experience recruits, it will be the airline insurers who will do that. They will see a trend for claims developing and will look deeper at what has changed over the last 10 years.

[Alex Whittingham]

"The only sector not using a selection procedure is the Modular route which is one of the reasons the CAA are looking to regulate this market.
It is more likely that these "Do It On The Cheap" types will not have the same level of skills as some Modular and Integrated students, and could be seen as more of a training risk to a future employer."

Given that modular students have passed the same tests to the same standard as integrated students and have more flying experience it seems a bit harsh to use perjorative descriptions like " 'Do it on the cheap' types" and then draw the conclusion you do.

Don't forget that airlines have the option to use selection procedures before they hire pilots, and that selection at that point should be more effective than predictive selection, carried out before a cadet has started flying. You'd be better employed asking why the airline selection procedures aren't working.

AFAIK the CAA are not "looking to regulate this [modular] market" any more than they do, they are in any case bound by EASA FCL rules. If they were in any way motivated to improve the current system they could, however produce decent ground exams and an online booking service.

[vaibhav]

hey ppl , am a newbie here .. have read this thread at a glance.. but was just wondering am a currently doing my ppl in australia melbourne , and am planning to do my ATPL Theory by the end of 2009 ... wat would be the market condition like in 2010 and around that point in time .. to work as an instructor or to work as crop-duster ..

[Day_Dreamer]

In reply to your post Alex

The number of hours is NOT indicative of the quality of a pilot, in fact the reverse can be easily said and from experience in training I can support that statement.

You will find that the CAA are looking towards those who have completed their training outside the EU where they are less likely to maintain the European standards.

I see by you posts that you are connected with Bristol GS, and your localised experience may be different.

However I stand by my previous statements.

[no sponsor]

I'll think you'll find that some JAA integrated schools operate training outside of the EU too (as well as modular schools) so your distinction is irrelevant.

[Alex Whittingham]

Ah, I see. Sorry, I thought you were just comparing JAA modular with integrated. Yes, you're right. EASA are likely to restrict training outside the EU. Paradoxically, this is most likely to affect the large integrated schools like OAA that do a large part of their training in the US with FAA licensed instructors.

What we find is that the selected integrated students are a more homogenous product, which makes them attractive to airlines. Modular students, which used to be called self-improvers, are much more diverse with some very good pilots coming through and also some who are not so good.

[chrisbl]

I think your argument only holds water here, ChrisBL, if airlines were out there, tapping people on the shoulder and saying "go train as a pilot, pay for it, and we'll definitely give you a job".


My argument does hold water in that the airlines are not exactly making clear that there are no guarantees. They are offering no cautions, not contadicting some of the wild FTO claims and so they are guilty by omission and complicit therefore with the FTOs.

[TwinAisle]

On that argument, are our secondary schools guilty of not managing expectations of their pupils? Does the Law Society make it clear that you can do all the exams you want, you may never become a barrister? Play football if you like, but guess what, your chances of playing for Man Utd are pretty slim?

Life ain't fair. There are few certainties, other than death and taxes. Anyone who thinks that getting the ATPL guarantees them a job on the flight deck, irrespective of their personal attributes is being frankly naive. I know quite a few unemployed MBAs, barristers who can't get tenancy, gifted musicians who work in Tesco.

I get bored looking at pilot CVs where the overwhelming message is "I have passed the exams, my FTO says I am fab, you MUST give me a job". I am not sure that any DFO would want to inflict some of these folks on their colleagues....

TA

[TwinAisle]

Take some damn responsibility for your own actions and stop whinging and blaming every other bugger, other than yourself, for YOUR failure to research the job market, and YOUR failure to get a job. I cannot believe that WWW is getting flak on this thread for not having predicted the future to the satisfaction of a few trainee pilots. This country is full of whining pu**ies!

Please stand for election, Topslide. I'll run your campaign!

So right, what you said. I honestly fear that we are starting to see the fruits of raising a generation of people who have never known failure or rejection. School sports that have no winners or losers. Exams at school that are so easy, an A is the norm. The first time that someone says "mate, you are not up to this" is an interview, and boy, it seems to be a shock.

Welcome to the real world, folks....

TA

[chrisbl]

Does the Law Society make it clear that you can do all the exams you want, you may never become a barrister?

I hate being picky but it is the Bar Council that qualifies barristers. The Law Society is reponsible for Solicitors.

The advantage of many of these professions is that self employment is a possibility be it as an accountant, solicitor etc, where the skills and learning can be put to good use.

They are not one dimensional either. I employ a former bar student as a legal manager giving and they are probably earning more than they might as a junior. The skills can always be put to good use.

Unfortunately getting the pilot licences risks being one dimensional, with very little residual opportunities other than instructing (flight or ground).

The football analogy is a red herring. Most wannabe professional footballers get the chop by the time they are 16 and they have not forked out £70k in the process.

[TwinAisle]

it is the Bar Council that qualifies barristers

Fair cop! Mea culpa.

But the point of my post was as TopSlide noted - much better than I did. If you want to chase your dreams, have a plan B, or risk suffering the consequences...

Most of the commercial pilots I know did something else first. Some ran their own businesses, one was a barrister, one a chartered accountant, one sold insurance, one was in IT. All of them would, I am quite sure, HATE to leave flying to go back to that, but the point is, they could - these activities helped pay for their training, and if it all went horribly wrong, they could go back to them and earn a living.

I would offer the following advice to anyone going into ANY profession that has a high degree of specialisation and risk - and I would add, that list includes professional pilot, professional footballer - ANYTHING that is so specialised that you are in an "all or nothing" scenario:

Have a fallback plan that will pay the bills if you don't make it, either at all, or straightaway.

If you don't, you are risking one helluva lot in chasing that dream...

TA

[chrisbl]

TwinAisle

I would not disagree with you or Topslide and we are arguing the same points.

People who have had another career before aviation have a fall back and that is important.

Those who dont have a fallback have a problem when their chosen career is a one horse wonder with few in the way of transferable skills.

Is that why pilots hate ex pilots who move into airline management - jealous or feel they dont have the skills?

Mind you, they rubbish great managers from other industries because they dont anything know the industry.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Insolvencies to hit record level in 2009, warns KPMG - Telegraph (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/borrowing/4031230/Insolvencies-to-hit-record-level-in-2009-warns-KPMG.html)

The number of people being declared insolvent next year is expected to climb to its highest level since records began almost 50 years ago, experts have warned.

KPMG said numbers would surpass 150,000 next year as people struggled to meet the rising cost of living.

If the prediction proved to be correct, it would be the highest level since The Insolvency Service figures began in 1960...

The average person entering into an IVA over the past year owed £47,000 and planned to pay just 38 per cent of this sum, equivalent to £18,200 per borrower, according to KPMG.


Its going to be the must have accessory for 2009. I have a close friend who works in personal insolvency and the mainstream media is WAY behind on this story. He says he sees a Tsunami of it coming. So much so that it will have a causative effect as small firms and traders are forced into insolvency by others doing the dirty on them.

The Government not only knows what is going to happen it is making it as easy and accessible as possible. From April they will supplement Bankruptcy and IVA's with shiny new Debt Relief Orders. Quickie bankruptcy for the poor thats easy and quick to process administratively.

Using credit to live a lifestyle you cannot afford is now so critically important to the economy and those in charge that the penalties are being removed. Never mind those that manage their finances, earn their wages, save their pennies and live within their means. They are idiots and fools and misbehave by not taking up a credit addiction.

Banks are drug dealers and the politicians are bought off. Staying 'clean' is bad for business..

Its so shocking you marvel how they have the bravado to attempt the illusion.


WWW

[chrisbl]

Using high levels of credit to by overpriced goods and services, the credit crunch and the recession are the price to pay for "rip off Britain".

The government had an interest in the high prices as they got higher VAT receipts from the higher prices and corporation tax from the higher profits.

So it is not surprising that the government are going to make baling out the imprudent easy, its a vote winner.

And what does this government want next year - votes, there may be an election.

[TwinAisle]

It's going to be an interesting year politically. The Idiot Brown has started to bring in the Storm Troopers (Mandelson etc) whose only real use is to run election campaigns. I am hoping that we don't get an election soon - if Brown cuts and runs, it suggests that either he is expecting things to get a whole lot worse, or he is assuming that he will benefit from some (unlikely) dead cat bounce. If he goes longer term (2010) it suggests he is hoping to sort the shambles out and then give the electorate some sort of "aren't I the cat's pyjamas?" message.

Guess where the TwinAisle money is....

2009 is going to be bloody awful. As WWW points out, the whole shooting match is based on borrowed money - LOTS of it - and the great white hope for the future is that the borrowing classes have the yoke of debt removed painlessly so that when the banks have more money to lend, the newly discharged bankrupts can do so quickly, to get the show back on the road, and to save Brown's hide.

HMG had a choice in this - take it on the chin, take a lot of pain short term, and let some large companies die (Northern Rock etc) - allowing the market to fill in the holes, without having shedloads of public debt to worry about.

Or.

Spend oodles of public cash bailing out organisations that in many ways caused this shambles by lending stupidly, saddling us and our kids with only Christ knows how much debt, and prolonging the recession beyond all measure.

Guess which the Cretin Brown chose?

A very wise lady, often ridiculed for many things, once told us two very useful things, that at the time many giggled at - (1) you can't buck the market, and (2) you can't build a sound future on funny money.

How right she was. Every job we lose now proves Mrs T's case more and more.

Happy 2009, folks. For those in the industry, I hope that this time next year you still are. For those that are "wannabee", I wish you the best of luck.

TA (now where did I leave my blue rosette?)

[Sciolistes]

WWW,
Using credit to live a lifestyle you cannot afford is now so critically important to the economy and those in charge that the penalties are being removed. Never mind those that manage their finances, earn their wages, save their pennies and live within their means. They are idiots and fools and misbehave by not taking up a credit addiction.
That's the crux of it. But Gordon is the new Squire of Delusionshire. He knows that artificially sustaining the economy is completely unsustainable, but in true populist political style he'll cross that bridge when he gets there whilst uttering the usual pathetic platitudes about "rocks of stability" or some other meaningless nonsense. It is the political equivalent of an attempt at a dead stick zoom climb in IMC near the ground, but without the benefit of an ASI.

No more boom or bust he said, whilst knowing full well it was total BS.

TwinAisle,
How right she was. Every job we lose now proves Mrs T's case more and more.
Mrs T opened up the free market and was astonished that she couldn't control it. It was her government what increased the supply of funny money and built an economy on debt despite also chastising people for borrowing more than they could repay. Almost like Goldsmith, also one of the engineers of the greed economy (let loose by Mrs T), who then after making billions and being sidelined By Thatcher, started to criticize the government and the system that made him so incredibly wealthy. She is just as responsible for the economy we have today.

[heli_port]

A passenger plane has successfully completed a two-hour test flight partly powered by vegetable oil.

Air New Zealand hailed the flight as a "milestone" in the development of sustainable fuels that could lower aeroplane emissions and cut costs.
One engine of the Boeing 747-400 was fueled by a 50-50 mixture of jatropha plant oil and standard A1 jet fuel.
A Virgin Atlantic test flight in February used fuel derived from a blend of Brazilian babassu nuts and coconuts.
In Auckland on Tuesday, a range of tests were completed both on the ground and during the flight, said Air New Zealand Chief Pilot David Morgan.


BBC NEWS | Science & Environment | Vegetable oil tested on NZ flight (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/7805499.stm)

http://users.esc.net.au/%7Emapie/airplanesmiley.gif

[JohnRayner]

I think ignoring the work Mrs T et al (and yes, I do include the unions!) did in ending UK plc as a largely manufacturing economy would be erroneous.

As an economy, we've been largely dealing in abstract ideas (law, accounts, banking, management) servicing a larger abstract idea (the financial "industry") for the past 10-20-more years

I agree the current lot are a complete shower, but they're building on the fine work of the early 80's (and maybe even the winter of discontent, as a lot of what happened to industry in the 80's could arguably be attributed to the desire of government to wrest power from the unions). Since as a nation we don't really "do" anything else apart from playing with toy money anymore, could that explain why it's evolved the way it has?

As for the French firework display over London last night. Well, I find it more worrying that we've had to go cap in hand to them to upgrade our nuclear energy programme (did they even say yes?).

But then for the past 20 or so years it's been laughable to expect bright people to look at the prospects of being an engineer or a scientist in GB, and then actually go for that as a career, hasn't it?

You've got to hand it to our colleagues on the mainland (:E) retaining a decent manufacturing base coupled with more conservative approach to the banking sector will probably see them get back on their feet far, far quicker than a country with all it's economic eggs in one very knackered basket...

HAPPY NEW YEAR!

JR

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

The best summary and broad prediction I can find today comes courtesy of the Gautemala Times (take note the cut n' paste from the Daily Mail bewailers),

Guatemala News | Will Banks and Financial Markets Recover in 2009? (http://www.guatemala-times.com/opinion/175-year-end/663-will-banks-and-financial-markets-recover-in-2009.html)


The suprising thing at this point to my mind if just how few airlines have gone under yet. I wonder just when its going to happen.

WWW


ps A sincere best wishes for 2009, its going to be a bumpy ride for all of us.

[Sciolistes]

that manage their finances, earn their wages, save their pennies and live within their means.
to pick up the pieces, and the tab, yet again.

A common misconception. The money you deposited in the bank does not increase the liquidity of the banking system. The only thing affecting the supply of money in the system at this time is the defaulting on credit which acts as a reduction multiplier. The only thing limiting the damage is the repossession of assets which improves liquidity and helps some institutions pay for all those Credit Default Swaps! The supply of money will not increase until the banks start to lend again. As WWW pointed out, real money is a tiny fraction of the fiat and credit money that keeps the system going.

The suprising thing at this point to my mind if just how few airlines have gone under yet. I wonder just when its going to happen.
Is the hat beckoning you WWW? Fear not. My armchair analysis is that the businesses going down now are those that were by and large effectively living on finance, possibly hand to mouth.

You can see on the high street how some retailers seemed to go down almost simultaneously at the 11th hour. Basically, without a good Christmas the money men cut their losses and walked. I think the banks are ruthlessly foreclosing on high risk debt.

There will still be a delay before we see businesses to go bust simply because they are not doing enough trade.

[david_gannon]

Sciolistes , spot on about Thatcher

[chrisbl]

I think ignoring the work Mrs T et al (and yes, I do include the unions!) did in ending UK plc as a largely manufacturing economy would be erroneous.


It is a common mistake to make that Mr T was responsible for the decline of our manufacturing economy.

I started my working life in manufacturing in 1976. Most of it was pretty run down, inefficient and over manned.

The machinery was pre war and totally knackered. The Unions were resistant to changing working practices that would allow for investment in new and modern kit which our competitiors had.

All that happened in Mrs T's time was that the inevitable happened.


Quote:
that manage their finances, earn their wages, save their pennies and live within their means.
to pick up the pieces, and the tab, yet again.
A common misconception.

A common misconception too. Those with savings or depending on savings have had their interest rates cut to make lending cheap. Savers are being punished.

Edited to correct spelling

The irony is that lenders are assessing mortgages on the basis of borrowers being able to afford interst rates of 7%.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Euro parity is really going to stunt the holidaymaking of 2009. Even those not worried about recession and job security will have good reason NOT to fly to Europe on holiday this year.

Passenger numbers are going to drop devastatingly. Its inevitable.

What then happens is predictable.


WWW

[Greg2041]

Apt words. Sums up this Labour government pretty well i'd say!

Really? So Mr Brown is responsible for the global recession as well then?

[helimutt]

he might as well be. He hasn't helped things.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

G7 industrial output has already contracted 7pc since peaking in February 2008. The speed and depth of the downturn mean that we have already exceeded the 2000-2001 downturn and look set to exceed the 1980-1982 recession with the current decline heading towards 10pc.

That would make the current recession the second worst since the Second World War, beaten only by the 1974-75 recession when output plunged 12pc from peak to trough.

This is really serious. Many many airlines will not survive this and even those that do will be offering degraded pay and conditions.

Protect yourselves.

WWW

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

I wouldn't expect to see a sustained return to normal growth for a couple of years. John Majors green shoots of recovery took an awful long time to become visible to the naked eye..

Its very hard to predict exactly how and when the major impact of this disaster will be fully seen in the airline industry. Its a skewed place with the likes of Alitalia seemingly able to defy economic gravity. Unlike the last major recession this time we have the likes of Ryanair who WILL renegotiate terms and conditions to reflect pilots and cabin crews precarious employment predicament. A race to the bottom then ensues.


WWW

[a797]

The suprising thing at this point to my mind if just how few airlines have gone under yet. I wonder just when its going to happen.

Probably has something to do with that little 'sideshow' being around the 40 dollar mark. If oil was still at 150 alot more airlines would have collapsed by now. Sideshow my arse :)

[hollingworthp]

Not sure if we are allowed to post images here so I am sure a mod will remove if necessary, but could not resist when I saw this:

http://dilbert.com/dyn/str_strip/000000000/00000000/0000000/000000/30000/7000/300/37302/37302.strip.print.gif

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

As those that have followed my postings for some time I believe that House Prices are a close proxy for the depth and timescale of the recession. As House Prices are an area open to detailed study they can provide a good guide to the near future.

I've just been reading data that suggest that my most bearish predictions of a 35% peak to bottom fall is actually going to happen. I'll share it here:



http://www.bondvigilantes.co.uk:80/blog/UserFiles/Image/mortgage%20approvals%202009.jpg


The lead indicator here is the level of new mortgage approvals, which indicates the upcoming buying power entering the UK property market. The latest numbers were released on the 2nd January, and the record low number continues to point to further weakness, as illustrated in the chart.

The Red Line is recorded house prices to date. The Blue Line is recorded mortgage approvals to date PLUS a 7 month prediction. This prediction comes from what the bond market prices and the lenders themselves seem to indicate is their view. IF the Red Line continues to closely follow the Blue Line as it has done for many years then 2009 looks likely to bring about a 30% house price fall.

That will be the deepest, fastest most vicious correction in several generations. A 1980-82 style recession rather than a 1990-92 one. Negative equity for around 4 million households. Mass unemployment, spiraling crime (its tightly linked to economic prosperity) and civil unrest.

Given that averages mask a wide spread of values there would have to be a considerable number of properties that would fall by more than half from their peak valuations. Many city centre flats are already there. For those caught in such dramatic debts bankruptcy is probably the only solution.


WWW

ps Happy New Year.

[glazierflyer]

Thats really scary stuff WWW!!! I really hope your wrong for everyones sake. However I fear these predictions are true!

[JohnRayner]

An amusing slant on a depressing topic...

BANKS TO NOT LEND YOU MORE OF YOUR OWN MONEY - The Daily Mash (http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/business/banks-to-not-lend-you-more-of-your-own-money-200901051486/)

I shall ring and ask for a loan..

:}:}:}:}:}:}:}

p.s. It's tradition, or an old charter, or something, to link to indicators of impending doom. I was looking at the beeb site last night counting the name brand businesses that look like they're going to the wall. I had not the energy to cut and paste them. :(

[TwinAisle]

WWW - A supporting cautionary tale....

Back in 1996, I bought a flat in Cardiff Bay for £50k. In 2005, I sold it for £140k. A mate who has a similar flat in the same area has just been offered £80k for theirs... in all this time, the Bay area has been getting better and better as a place to live, so you have to wonder what would the price now be if the place had gone to the dogs...

Heaven help me had I borrowed that mythical £90k against my property to fund an ATPL or anything else... I fear that many people will have though.

TA

[VNA Lotus]

Karl Marx was right about this system...
one day people will understand why capitalism system fails.
It will be too late.
Economy goes up an down, up and down, but will definately go down.
I have just read its books and it so logical why our economy is fragile.
anyway I am not here to give my opinion just tell you: be safe and open minded.

[BEagle]

Back in 1996, I bought a flat in Cardiff Bay for £50k. In 2005, I sold it for £140k.

And that's the cause of most of our problems - the greed and short termism of the mortgage mafia.

For a flat to have increased in value by 280% in a mere 9 years, it would have had an average annual increase of 12.1%. There is no way that salaries increased by even half that rate, so the gulf between average income and house prices increased and increased until the ridiculous greed bubble finally burst. Taking with it the bankers and other white collar criminals who'd lent money to people quite clearly unable to afford it.

Whereas £50K to £80K in 12 years is a more reasonable average annual rate of 3.99%. Not far off annual RPI, in fact.

Still overvalued though - it is, after all, in the Land of No Vowels....:p

[TwinAisle]

I was agreeing with you until the last line...

Still overvalued though - it is, after all, in the Land of No Vowels....

Unworthy of you.

TA

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Some might say unwise... :E

WWW

[BEagle]

Ahh, there's lovely, really!

[Alex Whittingham]

Ryanair's December traffic was 11% up on a year ago, load factors unchanged. Ryanair.com (http://www.ryanair.com/site/EN/news.php?yr=09&month=jan&story=pax-en-060109)

Still no sign of the widely predicted collapse in passenger numbers. Could they be wrong?

[student88]

Wouldn't it be better to look at pax figures across all European airlines and not just one with three billion 737s and a client base that spans only a few demographics? Would I be right in thinking that the majority of seats flown in December were booked at a time when the country wasnt in recession?

I know, I ask too many questions. Let's get quizzical.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

11% more passengers. Well there's no need to worry then. With that sort of passenger growth there's absolutely no problems for Wannabes or commercial pilots in 2009/10.

I must get myself to the Porsche dealership in the morning in anticipation of my massive payrise and lucrative share option for 2009/10. Do you think the GT3 is less useable than the Turbo?


Its FUBAR'd and we all know it.


WWW

[doctordoom]

WWW wot is your job mate, are you a pilot. You seem to have far to much time on your hands, with the amount of posts you put on here. I think we should swap names since all you seem to do is go on about doom and gloom, lightin up mate wot ever happens happens :ok:

[student88]

I must get myself to the Porsche dealership in the morning in anticipation of my massive payrise and lucrative share option for 2009/10.

No - you need to get yourself enrolled upon a distance learning ATPL course. If you're a wannabe that is..;)

[clear prop!!!]

Would I be right in thinking that the majority of seats flown in December were booked at a time when the country wasnt in recession?

Statistically the majority of LoCo flights are booked on average 4 to 6 weeks in advance of travel.(source Mintel)

In addition EZY are showing Nov load factors up by 3.4% so maybe we are missing something in amongst the total gloom and doom:confused:

And, no, I'm not saying everything in the garden is rosy, but it is possible to find the odd glimmer of positivity if, ... you feel so inclined.

Aggregated house price statistics mask a number of things such as regional variations.

Whilst we have seen house prices in the SE fall by 16%, Scotland has seen only a 7% drop with an increase, (all be it small), in the last quarter.

I'm not suggesting everyone goes out and books an integrated course or orders a Porsche, but whilst it may be grey, but it's not all black..(the economy, not the Porsche)

[BitMoreRightRudder]

To be fair if I'm going to get a porsche, I'd go for a black 911......

By the way, easyJet are whispering about making a small profit for the financial year 09.

I knew there was logic behind the origins of this thread! :E

[Grass strip basher]

For all those fond of quoting Ryanair passenger growth numbers (which are slowing rapidly).... if you want to quote Ryanair here are the bullet points from a slide they used in an investor presentation on December 15th.... it is on their website so in the public domain... I would draw your attention to points 5 and 6... hardly points to an expanding industry does it?? And if passeger numbers are so rosey as you point out why are so many pilots having to join the doll queue??

• Oil prices and recession have devastated airlines
• Over 30 airline failures YTD 2008
• Small stand alone EU flag carriers are unsustainable
• Airline consolidation accelerating in EU and Atlantic mkts
• Short and long haul capacity rapidly contracting
• Collapsing air travel demand in recession
• Govts and EU support/approve airline consolidations
• Govts and EU endorsing consolidation over competition, e.g. banks

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

I didn't think house prices *could* go down in Scotland Clear Prop! ? Certainly never in Edinburgh...

Scotland is just lagging, like England lagged the US/Spain/Ireland.

I'm very very pleased that EZY's load factor is inching up but that might be just a tad related to the capacity reductions made for the winter by parking aircraft up and offering acres of unpaid leave to its staff.

Do please all point out glimmers and reasons to be cheerful - its the point of the thread.

I believe the US will see a million Americans a month lose their jobs in 2009. I believe that the UK is closely following, with a lag, the US and will see a similar scale disaster. In 2008 we talked a lot about oil and inflation and bank bailouts. 2009 we will mostly be talking about unemployment and deflation.

WWW

[Alex Whittingham]

..and your evidence for points five and six occurring, apart from a Ryanair investor presentation, is what?

[Alex Whittingham]

Easyjet are reporting a 7.3% increase in December over last year with load factors down 3.3% easyjet.com (http://www.easyjet.com/en/news/dec_08_passenger_statistics.html).

[Grass strip basher]

The bullet points are not mine Alex.. they are Ryanair's

Also an interesting slide in the presentation showing sharp declines in AerLingus passenger numbers.

Plus I imagine those 30 airlines that failed in 2008 aren't carrying too many folks now.

When was the last time Easy's passenger numbers only grew 7%... have they ever grown at such a slow yoy change? Fall in load factor has to be a big concern as it tells you less bums on seats per aircraft.... + how much discounting are they having to do??

Reading your post folks will get a distorted view of what it is like for fresh frozen ATPL holders at the moment Alex... both Ryanair and Easy have hiring freezes in place and Easy is getting rid of CTC cadets after their 6 months stint... so they are getting rid of pilots not hiring them.... how does that fit in with your passenger number data??

This thread helps knock some of the gloss off the picture FTOs like your own (which is one of the best) like to paint in wanabees eyes.

[Alex Whittingham]

Oh dear, you can't be serious. Do we have to do all this again?

1. 30 failed airlines. Er, which ones? Oh, yes, the ones with the dodgy business models and/or the highly leveraged ones, some US domestic airlines and some minor European ones. In the UK you have Euromanx, European Aviation Air Charter, Silverjet, XL and Zoom.

2. Easy's traffic only grew by 7%. What is wrong with 7% growth? Sounds good to me considering the Pestonites have predicted the end of the world. It's like complaining Ryanair only made €215 million in the half year to Sep 08. Only??

4. Fall in load factors a big concern? Doh. They went up 3.4% in November and they dropped 3.3% in December.

3. True, both Easy and Ryanair have hiring freezes in place. I'm pleased you have noticed the inconsistency. A hiring freeze in place with consistent increased traffic loads will probably lead to a recruitment requirement in the spring. Wait and see.

This is what I said in October and November:

'Again, you misunderstand me. I completely agree that this is a time for wannabees to be extremely cautious, particularly with borrowed money. I am merely observing that the data from the Low Costs, from as recently as October, flies in the face of your arguements and predictions.'

Pse delete 'October' insert 'December'

And finally, you suggest that FTOs like to paint a glossy picture for wannabees. I disagree with you, I have found that people are generally very honest. I don't suppose you have any evidence for this accusation or is this just another opinion?

[expedite08]

I would suggest Alex you quit fighting the tide. We are in recession and its not going to be a nice year! I would concentrate on ensuring your school keeps it head above water for the comming storn of 2009, rather than having a pop on here. By the way your school is very good, and I have not heard a bad comment made about it. Let that be a credit to you. Well done.

[student88]

1. 30 failed airlines. Er, which ones? Oh, yes, the ones with the dodgy business models and/or the highly leveraged ones

Ahh yes, I've never realised it until until now but you're right - they clearly deserved to go bust! Not like the crew and office staff needed their jobs anyway... gah, more fool them for having a dodgy set up. Insignificant little airlines, come back to me when BA or Virgin disappear off the radar :rolleyes:.

[BitMoreRightRudder]

Yeah but I think it is worth pointing out that the likes of FR and ezy are not doing as badly as many, including their own management, thought they would be doing. I can accept positive load factors up to the end of oct 08 were down to bookings made well in advance, but load factors over xmas for FR and ezy have indicated that the demand for discretionary air travel has not slumped just yet.

It is still hard to call just how far demand will drop off, as poor load factors for the next two months are to be expected whatever the economic picture. easyJet's cautious forecast of profit for the next year is dependant on the summer being better than current expectations. If it is, maybe that raft of airline failures will be somewhat smaller than expected aswell.

Although for anyone about to sign up to an integrated course, I've been paying off my debt from CTC to the bank at a rate of £1000 a month for the past 30 months. I borrowed 60K, in 2004, at a rate of 2% above base. How much do you think I still owe HSBC?

Answers on a postcard..............

[99jolegg]

I would suggest Alex you quit fighting the tide.

If 90% of what Alex posted is fact, how can you misconstrue it as "fighting the tide"?

This is what I said in October and November:

'Again, you misunderstand me. I completely agree that this is a time for wannabees to be extremely cautious, particularly with borrowed money. I am merely observing that the data from the Low Costs, from as recently as October, flies in the face of your arguements and predictions.'

Pse delete 'October' insert 'December'

You'll have to try rephrasing that Alex...maybe it hasn't got through yet.

[JB007]

The UK package holiday capacity reductions for Summer 2009 between the 2 remaining operators (TUI Travel and Thomas Cook) are a total of approx. 24% compared to what was on sale in 2008. This has increased the price of a holiday for this summer by 10%...both companies outlooks are very good, albeit the next few months will confirm...

I would expect easyJet and Ryanair to do 'ok' this summer with that in mind...

It's winter 09/10 that's scaring the heebeejeebee's out of me!!!!

P.s. I got Alex's post first time too! Personally enjoy Mr Whittingham's writings against the Doom and Gloom spreaders...

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Indeed. Winter 09/10 is the Main Event. What we have seen so far is similar to the High Street. The weak, the odd, the dying for years, have all gone to the wall.

The wave of unemployment which is now baked in the cake for 2009 will be the real issue.

Once again, a study of the 1990 - 1992 period bears considerable fruit. The big airline failures came after the unemployment peak. Which in turn came after the stock market slump and house price crash and formal recession.

The HPC and Recession are now broadly beyond dispute and the stock market slump is a fact. The unemployment tidal wave is poo-poo'd by only the most optimistic and the bit we seem to be in denial about here is the big airline failures.

You have to wait for fuel hedges, currency hedges, loan arrangements and revolving credit facilities to expire before you really find out whose swimming with no trunks on. It takes time. Winter 09/10 will be that time. That is even more depressing for the eager Wannabe or someone currently training for whom the timescale of the slump needs to be as short as possible. Training is quick. The economy is slow.

And on another, broader note, I think its likely that when the crisis is over what the industry will return to will not be what it left.

By this I mean the last decade has been a bubble. A bubble in finance, housing, stock markets, commodities and most of all debt. That bubble has given us easyJet, Ryanair and all the others. Between them at least 300 new aircraft in the UK, many of them jets. That won't happen again. It won't.

What will happen is a return to a more normal (50yr norm) industry with growth in line with the general economy of around 4%. At best. You'll have small growth plus retirement plus loss of medical. Beyond that you are not going to see rampant demand for pilots for some decades. Really. The market has done a very good job in providing very cheap air transport just where and when there is any reasonable demand. We're kind of done now in the UK.

Other, large, EU countries have not had this. They are ripe for it.

Perhaps the best advice I could give a Wannabe currently cooling their heels is to learn a foreign language. German, Spanish, Italian, French would seem to be equally useful. You may well find that even a British airline would far rather you command one of those languages than have a thousand hours in your log book.

WWW

[Grass strip basher]

I fully understand what Alex is saying... got it a long time ago. Will be interesting to have the discussion when either Ryanair or Easy passenger growth goes negative.... + I assume that you are stripping out GB airways acquisition (complete end of Jan) from your 7% growth yoy at Easy to get to an underlying number... oooh you weren't?? But GB were moving c200-250kk people a month... ex that 200-250k there would have been negative growth in underlying passenger numbers in Nov and no growth in Dec... there are lies damn lies and statistics.... :ugh:... my issue is that the numbers you quote can be miss-leading to some wanabees.... I have no problem with you openly saying wanabees should be cautious... (which of course helps your (very good) modular school at the expense of integrated).

The problem is that even Easy and ryanairs growth is slowing significantly and they will also be cannibalising legacy carriers.

Bottom line there are very few/no jobs out there for wanabees. Even highly levered airlines that go bust put experienced pilots on the market. Gaining comfort from Alex's numbers is folly. If you disagree please list the airlines that are likely to hire low hour wanabees in the next 12 months??

Recruitment requirement in the spring.... I look forward to a few people on CTC's new "flexi scheme" getting thrown a bone for a 6 month stint on £1k a month.... then put back in the queue at the job centre

To say FTOs don't paint a glossy picture... well we will just have to disagree on that.

[Parson]

GSB,

I haven't read enough relevant posts to form a view on whether FTOs paint a glossy picture or not but the fact is they are businesses who need cash to survive.

The have an obligation to their staff and shareholders to return a profit and keep them employed. Some may entice their clients (ie students) with the promise of job placement, contacts etc. but the bottom line is they train you for a license and that's it. Anything else is a bonus.

If you don't want to spend your cash, you don't have to you. But if FTOs do put a spin on the current climate to try and stay afloat, well good luck to them - that's business and you get it in every industry.

You're having a pop at Alex, but I've always found him to be positive and encouraging to wanabees and from what I've seen, he has only been stating facts to support his case.

There are some FTO staff who post on here anonymously - if they are deliberately misleading, you can't legislate for that and you just have to accept that it may happen on a forum like this. Anyone with half an ounce of wit will do some thorough research before splasing their cash.

P

[getoffmycloud]

He's not having a go at Alex.
He's just pointing out that the "facts" Alex quotes can be miss-leading e.g. if you strip out acquisitions at Easy growth rate looks very differnt.
Some might find that useful.

Nor hasGSB said that FTOs don't have the right to put a gloss on things.
He just says to say they don't necessary give a fair picture because they have to sell a product or in some case go out of business.

GSB simply points out this is the worst pilot recruitment market in decades and the outlook is grim despite all Alex's efforts at "turd polishing".

And I say that with the upmost respect for Alex and his school.

[Parson]

Well, having just re-read the posts, I think he was but I'm not one for arguing.

The point I was making is that you can't blame FTOs for drumming up business - they need to survive, just like any other industry.

If I ran an FTO in the current climate, I'd be jumping up and down offering PPL + hr bldg + groundschool packages on the basis that you can hold off the expensive flying training until the market picks up. But no doubt, someone would claim that was deluding wanabees.

[Alex Whittingham]

But airlines increase traffic loads by flying more passengers on existing routes and by opening up new routes. In the case of the GB acquisition new routes were acquired en-masse. It's as meaninful to strip out the passenger figures from GB as it is to strip out passenger figures from all the other new routes and then say 'told you so, they aren't flying many more passengers on their old routes'.

This is like a Monty Python sketch....'Well OK, apart from the traffic growth, good load factors, expanding route structure and millions of pounds of profit they aren't doing very well, are they?'.

Having said that I agree the outlook looks grim. We differ on our forecasts for the depth and duration of the grimness. GSB et associated Eyores are talking the industry into a position which it really isn't in, luckily the opinions held in this little corner of PPRuNe don't seem to actually affect the airlines' performance.

Is this the worst pilot market in decades? I think the cycle is shorter than that, WWW will remember.

[Slopey]

Presumably, the LoCo pax numbers are up as travellers move away from the more expensive carriers to the budget airlines?

In my company, we've already moved virtually 100% to Easy/Ryanair to save travel costs with the previously standard BA/BMIs only used when absolutely necessary.

[dublin_eire]

I know it's pretty gloomy here in Europe. Does anyone know what the situation is like on the other continents? The reason I ask is that I begin my PPL in Feb and plan on doing modular with the bulk of the money saved; no debt, fingers crossed! I'm young and to be honest I'd jump at the chance of living and working somewhere exotic for a couple of years.... Pay wouldn't be an issue so long as I could live off of what I earn.

Any feedback off people doing something similar would be great!

[TwinAisle]

Got to agree with WWW and JB007, not for the first time. Next winter could well be a nightmare.

I work on the financial side of airlines a lot of the time, and the model is this - this summer, most of the carriers will be hoping, as they always do, for decent yields and loads, decent enough to drag them through the winter. This is how it has always worked.

This summer, we are going to see a drop in consumer confidence Europe wide - many people are worried about their jobs, the value of their houses and many other things connected with these two things. Many have over-leveraged themselves. The party for many is well and truly over.

If the airlines can't build up the war chest this summer, and I fear that it is going to be tougher than for a long time for them so to do, the winter is going to be VERY nasty. On top of that, many have already been hit with the credit card companies getting tougher on settlements... and how many have spent cash hedging fuel at $110/barrel? All absorbs cash....

Tin hats on, folks...

TA

[George Zipper]

You can believe the headlines too much; do so at your peril as you will only talk yourself into a state of gloom and despair. All this talk of "lowest sales figures this and that" would make us think that it us the consumer who has caused the recession - utter nonsense!

The total shambles, irresponsible lending and unquantified risk-taking of our financial/banking sector is entirely to blame for our economic problems. There are untold examples of perfectly sound businesses going to the wall purely because banks are refusing to continue to finance them in desperate bids to reduce their exposure and improve their own liquidity.
Where there were teams of workers within such institutions actively encouraging businesses to take on more debt and lending, they are now replaced by teams actively encouraging businesses to wrap up and and shut the doors or move to a new bank..........except their competitors are equally stuffed and so wont back them.

All of this has nothing to do with people keeping their hands in their pockets and refusing to spend. However the secondary effects are that it does then create unemployment through such 'forced' liquidation, with the resulting market jitters that follow and a ultimately a lower marginal propensity for consumer consumption......the result = sustained periods of 'reported' actual negative growth (i.e. recession)

What the country really needs is a monumental shot of confidence and I think that can only now come from a general election.

And as far as wannabees are concerned, is now not a good time to prepare yourself for the upswing when it comes?

[dublin_eire]

What the country really needs is a monumental shot of confidence and I think that can only now come from a general election.

I don't even think a general election will do.... I fear it won't be until the Olympics of 2012....

[George Zipper]

I don't even think a general election will do


perhaps not, but as one commentator put it "at least Darling and Brown know where the bodies are burried" so maybe chuck them the shovels instead of chucking them out!

Just another point of interest, has anyone noticed the BOGOF deals on alcohol have increased to more ranges of wines, sprits and beers then before? Maybe we can drink our way out of recession :}

[TwinAisle]

Maybe we can drink our way out of recession

I think we'll all be NEEDING a drink soon....

Re the election. If I were Mr Cameron, I would be voting Labour. I bet he can't relish the job ahead of him were he to win....

TA

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

I think all contributors here are able to attack one anothers arguments without any hint of attacking the man. The cut and thrust of a good debate may be cutting without either sides falling out about it.

Regarding the GB acquisition by EZY and they EZY figures. Fair enough to include them as EZY expansion. But you then have to say that GB Airways went bust in March '07. Either one airline expanded and one went under, or, one bought the other. But not both.

George: I don't believe the headlines. They've been totally unrealistically upbeat for at least two years and continue to be so.

The party is over, everyone has a shrieking hangover and that idiot Brown is offering hair-of-the-dog as a cure and thinks he's clever for doing so. History will be most unkind to the Blair/Brown era. All Labour administration ultimately end in a currency crisis. Socialists always end up running out of other peoples money to spend. Nothing really changes.


WWW

[JB007]

Is this the worst pilot market in decades? I think the cycle is shorter than that, WWW will remember.

Yep! Dan-Air and Air Europe going under was bad in 1990/91. But now, and sensibly, we have mergers and acquisitions to keep city folk/shareholders happy as a means of survival. When the upturn begins, the Wannabe needs to begin forecasting what the industry/market place will be...

5 UK airlines?!? Interestingly, how many will have a major German % share...??

[clear prop!!!]

WWW...

I'm very very pleased that EZY's load factor is inching up but that might be just a tad related to the capacity reductions made for the winter by parking aircraft up and offering acres of unpaid leave to its staff.

Now, I don't for one second doubt what you say and times are harder for EZY staff. Indeed this was borne out by a couple of your collegues I had a long chat with the other day.

What I don't understand is the following which, are YoY figures...

(MarketWatch) -- Low cost airline easyJet (UK:EZJ:
287.50, +5.00, +1.8%) said Wednesday that it carried 7.3% more passengers in December compared to a year earlier. The airline said passenger numbers rose to 3.1 million, from 2.9 million. Load factor, a measure of passengers against available seats, improved 3.3 percentage points to 82.3% from 78.9%

Honestly, this is not my usual dig WWW, but, as you are nearer to the EZY coal face than I am, I would genuinley like to know what is going on here, which does seem to be against all odds!

Have EZY just become more efficient?:confused:

And again,...this is not an argumentative post, but a genuine question!

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

From Times Online

January 7, 2009

US jobless to hit highest level in 60 years

Christine Seib, New York



America's private employers cut more than half a million workers in December alone, raising fears that Government figures out on Friday will show the most savage job cuts in almost 60 years.


This is the end of a super cycle. This is not a mid-cycle downturn. This is not a regular recession. This is a Depression event which the authorities are throwing the kitchen sink against. It may or may not work. I think not.

After that my job is gone along with thousands of others. A good pilot is compelled to evaluate the situation based on what he has learned. That's a direct, and cheezy, quote from TopGun but it is true.


Give me a call, I'll fly with you,

WWW


ps in a 152 probably.. ;)

[George Zipper]

There is much good discussion going on here and I am enjoying the debate.

I agree with all the observations being made but have a differing view on the conclusions.

Pull it back up to a higher level - the private sector is stuffed, unless it is cash rich and eyeing up its weaker competitors to take advantage of what is for them, and will continue to become, a great merger/acquisition opportunity.

Therefore, to revert to my previous observation it is therefore only a revised fiscal strategy, be it through measures to encourage consumer spending through confidence or public spending, that the economy can then be re-ignited. (NOTE I am not advocating which measure(s))

However one only has to look back to 2Q last year when the inter-bank lending rate went vertical in comparison to the BOE rate that we should have forseen the financial catastrophe awaiting to happen. Banks had little or no dosh to meet their own creditors never mind lend any surpluses to one another; Northern Rock wasn't even the tip of the iceberg. Currently we the consumer need to ignore the current BOE base rate as an indicator. You need only look at actual borrowing rates being offered, be it mortgages, credit cards or personal loans, to realise how little the institutions want your business or the price you will pay for accepting their current conditions.

Never before has there been a need time for the men in long trousers to stand up and be counted and earn their salary. Reducing VAT by 2.5% was frankly an insult.

Not wishing to drag this into a political argument I do wander how many times G Brown has woken up to his famous last words "we have eradicated boom and bust" and I lay all the blame on his shoulders. After all he was the man in number 11, with the hand on the tiller, before moving up the street.

So back to flying. Ultimately aviation travel, for Joe public, is a discretionary spend activity. When we have money and feel good about our future security, we spend a little more in the current period, be it foreign holidays or weekend breaks. Restoring the confidence of the general population and regulating our financial sector is what is needed. Sounds too easy to be true, but that’s what is basically needed and NOT flogging off our golden foreign currency reserves at bargain basement prices as GB has previously done. Now our greatest challenge is the pitiful value of sterling which makes the 2 weeks in the med look poor value. Butlins anyone?

I agree when with TA assertion that Cameron should vote NL - does he really want the job :yuk:

But someone needs to step up to the challenge and the sooner we see change the better.

Keep you chin up wannabees (and assuring you the rose tints are not on;))

[99jolegg]

Interest rate down 50 points to 1.5% as of this morning. Lowest in 300 years.

Bank of England cuts interest rates to lowest in more than 300 years - Telegraph (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/recession/4175063/Bank-of-England-cuts-interest-rates-to-lowest-in-more-than-300-years.html)

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Forget everything.

Just look at this graph and think of this singular fact and its implications:


http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/statistics/hew/2008/sep/hew.gif



This is from the BoE website. In 2007 people took around £13,000,000,000 out of their houses by increasing their mortgage liability in exchange for cash.

Some will have spent it on buying another house (ouch). Some will have used the money to pay off other debts at higher interest rates (good). Most will have spent it on an X5, a hot tub, two holidays and a villa in Spain (living the dream).


ALL THAT MONEY - ALL OF IT - will not be spent in 2009. Alone. Without redundancy or anything else is enough to cause the failure of several airlines amidst a major recession. In the UK the whole economy is 60% consumer led. Not making, not servicing, not transporting, not mining, not anything other than consuming.

Consumer spending, ignoring ALL other issues, will be around £13,000,000,000 down in 2009 compared to 2007. That's a fact. The Government may be able to offset this a little by taxing the future. But not enough to make a big difference.


WWW

[Black Knat]

That's nice-am on a tracker mortgage with Nationwide 'till 2012. More luck than judgement though!! There are SOME upsides to the recession I guess.

[david_gannon]

Just when the heck has New Labour been socialist? Its nothing but conservatism under a different name. No one here can actually believe that New Labour is socialist, can they?

[JohnRayner]

I think the party in government at any given time takes on a kind of slightly right of centre, Daily Mail-esque sheen after a while, perhaps to fall in line with a fundamentally similar minded population?

This time round it's certainly led to some interesting side effects. In the public sector lots of talk of more local freedom to act (socialism?), while at the same time legislation to centralise decision making (communism?), while at the same time seemingly opening up areas of public service to eventual privatisation (Conservative, erm, -ism?)

What's all that about!?

I wonder if, in the current crisis, whether GB et al, are just reverting to a type ingrained in them in the 70's while they were young. Could the railways be next?....... Whattabout AEROFLOT GB!!

(i'll get my coat.. :O)

[chrisbl]

You can argue the toss all you like about load factors.

The truth is much simpler.

I have never been on Sqeezyjet or Tryonair. This time last year I had three trips booked and paid for at this time. One long haul to RSW, and two short hauls all to be done by the end of March.

This year nothing - it is not that I cannot afford it, the base rate cuts put money in my pocket overall, it is just that I am not inclined to do any travel.

This is common amongst the people I mix with.

[peterinmadrid]

I think that it is relevant to deduct the increase in passengers flown through the acquisition of GB if we want to look at the industry as a whole because in this case Easyjet has increased its passenger numbers by taking them away from another airline, so no new demand or pilot jobs have been created.

[Right Way Up]

Topslide6,
The falling pound does not necessarily mean that all UK airlines are stuffed. It is difficult for charter airlines but with scheduled carriers the shortfall in UK passengers could well be balanced by continental passengers visiting the UK for a cheap break.

[n.dave]

Maybe things will get a lot better if Gordon Brown cuts VAT again and bailout companies!:O
The falling value of the pound makes people thinks twice before they spend it. Nobody knows what will happen near future. People read hyped-up news and are scared...... job losses, uncertain future, etc.

n.dave

[Sciolistes]

I doubt the Euro will stay strong for long. I think it has been the other place to take one's money to in a world of uncertain USD and GBP. Once the snags in the respective economies have been more fully quantified EUR will fall compared to GBP and GBP will establish a more realistic position compared to USD.

[Sciolistes]

I don't think we need to reach the bottom for the change, merely that the current situation is better understood. The reason for GBP's decline and EUR's rise is really about doing something, anything with one's money rather than just sitting on it as it devalues. As the situation in Europe is now looking just as desperate as UK and USA then we can expect the respective currencies to realign sooner than later.

[Alex Whittingham]

"Interests rates at 1.5% and only likely do go down = weakened Sterling = stronger Euro"

Oops! Wrong way. Pound regains ground against the Euro - BBC (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7816563.stm) ..and still rising. Looks like Sciolistes is right.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Once the rioting becomes widespread you'll find the ECB finds itself under unbearable pressure to crash the Euro. The French have already dusted off the specific legal mechanism needed to force the ECBs hand.

A strong currency is a wonderful vanity but if Airbus can't make an aeroplane for export or VW make a car for export then practicality trumps vanity pretty quickly. The big question is wether this unprecedented experiment in currency union is able to survive the coming storm. 50:50 I reckon.

One thing is for sure; we won't see the EU take the strong and decisive moves that the Obama administration will be able to enact. Once again the US will show how its economy really is the most powerful one in the world by a very long chalk.

WWW




Europe's economy contracts at rates not seen since 1930s - Telegraph (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/4177664/Europes-economy-contracts-at-rates-not-seen-since-1930s.html)


Europe's economy contracts at rates not seen since 1930s


Dire day for Europe as Spain's jobless blasts through 3m and German industry goes into "free-fall"

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, International Business Editor
Last Updated: 9:10AM GMT 09 Jan 2009

German exports and industrial orders have both plunged at the steepest rate since modern records began and Spain's unemployment has surged above three million, capping one of the most disastrous days for Europe's economy since the Second World War...

[Adios]

WWW,

Some prat at the times disagrees with you about the strength of the US economy. A bit jingoistic methinks! I wonder if his last trip to the States really was in the 70s?

Rusty superpower in need of careful driver | Matthew Parris - Times Online (http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/matthew_parris/article5435148.ece)

It will be interesting to see if Reagan's Supply Side boom can be duplicated with Obama's Demand Side economics. I'd hate to be the taxpayers getting the bill, but if it works at least they should have money to pay it. They sure won't be able to pay bills if something doesn't change quick.

[smith]

Yeah, it is possible that people from continental Europe would come here for a holiday. Is it likely? I wouldn't have said so personally

There was a thing on the news the other night about europeans coming over here to spend their money in droves. That new shopping centre down in London being mobbed with tourists.

On the plus side though the Euro millions lottery tickets cost us £1.50 and the europeans €2, this has always been the case, but now if I scoop the £50m jackpot this weekend, i'll have a far higher %age return on my flutter than mr european.:D

[mcgoo]

There was a thing on the news the other night about europeans coming over here to spend their money in droves

There was also a thing on the news the other night about Europeans coming over here to spend our money in droves!:mad:

[bucko]

From RTE.ie

"Unemployment up 71% in 12 months"

"The Live Register saw an unadjusted increase of 120,987 or 71% in the year to December 2008 - the biggest 12-month increase since records began in 1967.

It compares to an unadjusted increase of 106,864 or 66.1% in the year to November.


The figures published by the Central Statistics Office also show that the number of people signing onto the Live Register increased by 16,300 to 293,500 in December.

The unemployment rate rose to 8.3% last month from 7.8% in November.

The CSO figures show that the number of men on the dole has risen by 83% while the number of women is up by 50% compared with December 2007.

There is also a 24% rise in unemployment among under 25s.

Economists expect the unemployment figures to deteriorate significantly in 2009 with the State training agency FÁS predicting that the rate of unemployment will exceed 12% over the course of the year."

As far as Irish passenger numbers are concerned for the coming year, it don't look good!:uhoh:

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

I didn't know the FAS were predicting over 12%. That's huge. Spain is just under 14% and the idea of civil unrest is not looking outlandish there.

People just aren't going to travel at any price or any exchange rate when economic fear stalks the land like a huge great stalking thing.


WWW

[heli_port]

Business leaders have painted a bleak picture of the UK economy, with a survey suggesting a "frightening deterioration" towards the end of 2008.

BBC NEWS | Business | UK economy downturn 'frightening' (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7825213.stm)

[wilky]

I dont normally cut and paste links of gloom and doom but thought this might be of interest.

Aerospace industry has thousands of jobs in peril - Times Online (http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/engineering/article5477974.ece)

[heli_port]

What is Lufthansa planning to do with bmi, the former British Midland? Last year, the German flag carrier agreed to buy a 50 per cent stake from Sir Michael Bishop to take its holding to 80 per cent. Assuming that European competition regulators do not object, the deal should be completed in a month or so. What then?

Will bmi take off or stall under Lufthansa? - Times Online (http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/columnists/article5505539.ece)

[ford cortina]

Sod all that, a friend informed me about the new Virgin Atlantic advert, if that does not kick start the economy nothing will....:ok::ok::ok::ok::ok:
YouTube - Virgin Atlantic 25 years (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EPIjCS9YRw4)

I needed Oxygen on 100% after watching it:eek:

[Black Knat]

I had to laugh at it-good fun (my wife will no doubt laugh at it-she was a hostie for Virgin) but on a 'more serious' note it's a bit sad as the image put across is what the public and some 'pay to fly' wanabes think the job is about-ie/all glamour and it's not work. The reality couldn't be further from the perceived image!!!

[ford cortina]

Very true mate. Although all the rest of our crew here in our hotel think it's a hoot.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

I have to say its a cracking advert.

In other news..

Albert Edwards a Soc Gen analyst put out this note this morning, whilst he's a big bad bear its still cause for a nervous gulp:


While economic data in developed economies increasingly reflects depression rather than a deep recession, the real surprise in 2009 may lie elsewhere. It is becoming clear that the Chinese economy is imploding and this
raises the possibility of regime change. To prevent this, the authorities would likely devalue
the Yuan. A subsequent trade war could see a re-run of the Great Depression.


Thats the D word. Shotguns and tinned food serious.

WWW

[rogerg]

WWW

Your making me depressed!!

[chrisbl]

I was in China last weekend and all the questions I got were on the recession.

Factories are closing as export sales are drying up. One redundancy here will probably snowball into 20 in China.

To overcome the risk, the government is investing in major infrastructure.

With 10 million people a year leaving the countryside to live and work in the cities and 8 million or so leaving university high growth rates are needed to keep everyone busy.

If the government fail to ensure everyone is gainfully occupied then social stability is at risk. China has no welfare state or health service.

If China goes titup then we will be in real trouble.

So go out and buy a made in China telly or something and save the world.:ok:

[cc2180]

To overcome the risk, the government is investing in major infrastructure


So is ours it seems. Cant blame them, the way governments have dealt with unemploment in the past has usually involved infrastructure.

[Glasswasher Man]

I predict a return to literal breadlines within 12 months.

Also there will be rioting and carnage in the streets.

The Anglo-American empire will cease to exist.

Hyperinflation will come to Britain.

4 million will be out of work.

I drove past a Welsh family selling fruit and vegetables from the back of a van today near a Cardiff layby.

A return to thrifty,traditional living is a reality.

[bucko]

First news article I've read in a business section with a hint of the first rays of light and the end of this tunnel. WWW, please don't shoot me down for this, I am not trying to encourage false hope!!!!

Sunday Times, 18-01-2009
"Obama’s stimulus could turn round economy this year
American AccountIrwin Stelzer
In 48 hours George Walker Bush will watch as Barack Hussein Obama is sworn in as the 44th president of the United States. Knowing of Bush’s desire to return to his beloved Texas, one can’t help being reminded of President No 3, Thomas Jefferson, who reportedly remarked as his term ended some 200 years ago: “Never did a prisoner, released from his chains, feel such a relief as I shall on shaking off the shackles of power.”

It is those shackles that Obama will happily don. Bush says that when the new president steps into the Oval Office there will be a moment in which he realises the full weight of his new responsibilities. Perhaps that will come when he glances at his in-tray. He has promised to do a lot of things on “day one” - start a new peace process in the Middle East, accelerate the withdrawal of troops from Iraq and ship thousands more to Afghanistan, open a dialogue with Iran, close Guantanamo, replace “don’t ask, don’t tell” with a policy allowing gays to serve openly in the military, end the interrogation techniques that Bush and Dick Cheney say have prevented attacks on America.

Busy day. And that awesome list doesn’t include Obama’s top priority - getting his $825 billion (£560 billion) stimulus package through Congress.

Which he surely will: the Democrats dare not turn down their new president. After all, his approval rating is above 80%, while Congress’s is barely above 20%. And the minority Republicans, delighted with Obama’s plan to cut taxes, don’t have the votes to deny Obama a victory.

But there is enough unhappiness in Congress to force Obama to do some horse trading to get final approval. Some Democrats think the tax cuts should be replaced with more spending. Some Republicans and Democrats think the deficits the package will create will unleash inflation and a run on the dollar. Larry Summers, Obama’s chief economic adviser and his horse-trader-in-chief, is not noted for his emollient style, or his sympathy with lawmakers who might succumb to what The Wall Street Journal calls “the lobby frenzy now under way”. And on the other side of the table, are congressmen eager to reestablish their relevance after years of playing a subordinate role to the White House.

But in the end Obama will get most of what he wants, not least because the economic situation seems to deteriorate daily. The latest survey of national business conditions by the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis reported that “overall economic activity continued to weaken”, with retail sales, the labour market and manufacturing activity all falling. And Jamie Dimon, chief executive of JP Morgan Chase, says things will get worse this year as more consumers default on credit-card debt.

One way to understand the severity of the problem is to consider this: it’s one thing when tired old companies such as Delta Air Lines and General Motors announce layoffs, quite another when Google fires 100 recruiters because it expects to need fewer new workers this year, and Microsoft prepares substantial layoffs. The economy’s growth engines are sputtering.

By some measures Obama’s plan makes Franklin D Roosevelt’s antidepression spending look like small change. Diana Furchtgott-Roth, an economist colleague of mine at the Hudson Institute, reckons that in 1934 government spending reached 11% of GDP in Roosevelt’s fight to end the Great Depression, while Obama plans to increase spending to 23% of today’s GDP in 2009. True, Obama’s stimulus plan is only half as large as Roosevelt’s, relative to the size of the economy. But it starts from a much higher base of spending on programmes that did not exist when FDR was deploying his personal jauntiness as a national antidepressant.

In addition to stimulus funds, the new president will have available the second, $350 billion tranche of the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP). The Senate approved freeing up those funds late last week, on the condition that between $50 billion and $100 billion is devoted to foreclosure-prevention programmes.

Obama knows one thing. He is inheriting George Bush’s recession, but by the end of 2010 he will own it. If the measures he adopts don’t show signs of working, it will be Barack Obama’s recession.

The new president’s luck might just hold. Credit markets are already responding to the measures taken by the Fed and the Treasury. The commercial paper market (a key source of funding for companies and banks) is showing signs of life, with the portion of these IOUs that the Fed has been required to buy dropping precipitously. The market for mortgage-backed securities issued by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac is improving. Risk premiums in the interbank lending market have dropped. Investors have shown a willingness to take on more risk by buying the below-investment-grade “junk” bonds offered last week by Cablevision and the natural-gas operator El Paso.

The Financial Times summarises all this: “There is now compelling evidence that the authorities are not simply substituting for private activity in the markets in which they are intervening, but pulling in private capital as well.” Problems in the credit markets are far from over - witness the need of Bank of America for additional billions of bailout cash - but things are improving.

Goldman Sachs economists expect the stimulus to end the recession in the second half of 2009, but the unemployment rate to keep rising “through late 2010”. Economists know that the unemployment rate is a lagging indicator, falling only after a recovery is well under way. Less well-trained voters, focused on jobs, don’t deal in such technicalities, which means they just might turn on Obama’s Democrats in the November 2010 congressional elections.
That would put Obama in mind of Jefferson’s first inaugural address: “I have learned to expect that it will rarely fall to the lot of imperfect man to retire from this station with the reputation and favour which bring him into it.” It is a lesson that George W Bush learned all too well.

Irwin Stelzer is a business adviser and director of economic policy studies at the Hudson Institute"

Hope it's true, but alot of damage already done and the effects yet to be really felt.

[Crimo]

From reading your assesments I would conclude now is not the time to invest in flight training. My plan at the moment is to sit it out and wait for the economic condition to improve. However I question if they will for a very long time. I am presently the holder of a PPL and planning to invest a substantial amount of money in flight training with the hope of gaining employment with an Airline. I realise this is an unrealistic prospect at the moment. But how long do you think I should wait before I eventually make a decision of whether to put the nail in the coffin of an expensive dream?
Do you believe we will now in six months how bad things are?


:\

[Chief Erwin]

Crimo
You might as well keep training so when you do have enough time and experience it might be when they are hiring again.
Saves trying to play catch up when the time comes.

[dublin_eire]

I predict a return to literal breadlines within 12 months.
Also there will be rioting and carnage in the streets.
The Anglo-American empire will cease to exist.
Hyperinflation will come to Britain.
4 million will be out of work.
I drove past a Welsh family selling fruit and vegetables from the back of a van today near a Cardiff layby.

A return to thrifty,traditional living is a reality.

I can't tell if you're serious or taking the mick out of the others' pessimism on this tread but if you are serious; you sound like a man to me that jumps on band wagons..... Have you ever driven through Ireland? If you have you will see Wexford Strawberries and Potatoes on almost every national road during the summer, even through the Celtic Tiger days. Simply people making a bit of pocket money out of surplus stock. Look at Hugh on Channel 4, again growing his own and bartering or selling the produce.

Take a chill pill....

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Irwin Stelzer was boastfully denying that the US would even enter a recession. When it did he claimed it would be fleeting and at most technical. Now that everyone knows its going to be deep and serious he's claiming it'll be over by Christmas. The man is a professional cheerleader for the US economic/political system. He's cried wolf so much that a lot of people have stopped listening to him.

An alternative economist who has called every single facet of this crisis and recession and is therefore worth listening to (perhaps) is Nouriel Roubini.


And now is only the time to train if you are a cast iron idiot with absolutely no knowledge of aviation history.

In the 1991 recession we only saw the major airline bankruptcys a year or two years later. It takes a while for the profit to slump, the costs to remain, the reserves to be used up and finally the receiver called in. The EU today estimates the most severe contraction in GDP in the UK since WW2 of 2.6%. I think this is underplaying it. However, if it is 2.6% of GDP contraction in 2009 then the commercial aviation sector will experience AT LEAST triple that figure as its essentially a Fast Moving Consumer Good/Discretionary Spending item.

Losing 7.8% of the aviation business in the UK would be the same as losing how many airliners? Given EZY and RYR would have about 160 aircraft each, BA 280, the Charters 100, the others 100 or so. And then maybe the same the year after.

Sorry. I don't know many pilots who aren't just a little bit to quite worried about their employment situation going into this storm. That anyone wants to spend £70k of their own money to sit at the bottom of all their CV's is astounding.


WWW

[Lurking123]

I don't know many pilots who aren't just a little bit to quite worried about their employment situation going into this storm.

I think that sentiment stretches to almost any profession. Obviously the difference is the manner in which individuals join their chosen profession. I certainly wouldn't be spending £70K of my cash on anything right now.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Not sure many medical doctors or consultants see much chance of being suddenly, one day like a lightning bolt, unemployed. Nor barristers or those in the police, military, or civil service.

Its a feature of the industry that Pilots have less job security than most professional peers. Airlines go bust. The list of airlines that collapsed is considerably longer than that still in existence. There is ABSOLUTELY NOW WAY that this deepening and already serious recession will pass by without the failure of several UK airlines. It would defy logic and historical precedence and prove wrong all the major airline CEO's who have already predicted it.


Never been a worse time to train.

WWW

[peterinmadrid]

At least the price of oil is low. That has probably saved a lot of companies from bankruptcy. Who would have thought that it could go back down to 40$ when we were looking at 150$ just 6 months ago and everyone was in panic. Is this likely to last? Will it bring down airfares or make training cheaper again? I was seeing hourly rates for plane rental go up almost weekly last August at the place I was at. Is anyone aware of prices going back down? One thing that worries me is that, with a low oil price, people will forget about investing in replacement technologies and then when things do start to pick up the oil price will go though the roof again.

[driftdown]

WWW

I think Paramedics / Nursing staff could be added to the medical professional list, also being an undertaker might be considered a recession proof occupation :{

[dublin_eire]

Jaysus lads, remind me to invite yas to my parties....... I wouldn't have it that the life and souls be left out!

Cheer up!

[no sponsor]

FT.com / MARKETS / Currencies - Jim Rogers: ?UK has nothing to sell? (http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/5d4a02ca-e7a1-11dd-b2a5-0000779fd2ac.html)

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Dublin Eire - do shut up you moron.

A sober analysis of the depth of the problems facing Wannabes relating to the economic crisis is important, relevant and of interest to most.

Today I planned on 4 engine failures at V1 and 4 go-arounds and 4 diversions and 4 evacuations not because I'm miserable. A professional pragmatically plans. They don't just shrug and whistle Always Look On The Bright Side whilst hoping for the best.

10,000 people every week in the UK are now losing their jobs.

That adds up quite scarily.


WWW



no sponsor - I read that earlier and Ambrose Evans Pritchard piece, its past worrying and into terrifying but not many know they should be any more than uneasy..

[Greg2041]

AND NOW FOR SOME GOOD NEWS!

After write-offs and the like, Barclays Merchant Bank actually did extremely well last year and their rather splendid profits are once again steadily rising. So things might be moving in the right direction, even if their share price doesn't reflect their actual position.


AND NOW FOR SOME BAD NEWS!

In 2011, it is extremely likely that the retirement age will increase to 70 although that will be at the discretion of the employee.

So, more pilots working longer? Less pilots to be recruited? What do you think?


AND SOME MORE GOOD NEWS!

In 3 years time, there will be significantly less pilots in the pool as fewer will be able to afford the training over the next couple of years. So, potentially even Ryanair might be forced to pay for line training. In fact, if you hang-on, I'm guessing that IR's might be paid for as well!!!!!

REMEMBER, YOU HEARD IT HERE FIRST!

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

For the last 10 years the UK population has enjoyed a lifestyle that it couldn't afford and did not merit. At first it could cope. 2001 tech bubble burst was a warning shot but the 2005 tremour was a dire warning. It was ignored. House price inflation was allowed to roar away until the Sept 2007 epiphany.

Look at any stock market chart.

05 should have been the peak followed by a small recession. It was postponed for 2 years and the result is a major recession. This did of course coincide with a certain General Election victory of a third term never seen by a particular adminstration...

During these good years the public finances should have been in good order with record receipts. Unfortunately they were places 3% in debt which is a position you would associate with a serious recession situation...

The country is seriously screwed and the markets, internationally, are telling you that. Ignore the domestic politicians and newspapers who survive on domestic consumption led advertising.

Its screwed. The country is bankrupt. Bankrupt.



You think I'm a nut job.



Unfortunately, I'm not.



WWW

[Greg2041]

Time will tell but I';m guessing 5 years to a full recovery and 3 years 'til pilot recruitment. I certainly wouldn't even consider beginning an ATPL integrated course though, after all WWW just might be right!

[dublin_eire]

Today I planned on 4 engine failures at V1 and 4 go-arounds and 4 diversions and 4 evacuations not because I'm miserable. A professional pragmatically plans. They don't just shrug and whistle Always Look On The Bright Side whilst hoping for the best.

And then you call me a moron..... Very professional!

I'd love to know your credentials in the field of economics WWW. I'm just heeding the warning below about sciolists, I fear you're most likely one of them!

Recessions are also very good things. From an ordinary joe-soap point of view goods are better value, it's easier to start up businesses(so I've heard), margins of retailers are cut back to the benefit of the consumer, companies cut out unnecessary costs and improve performance/production, house prices come down and demand related price goods such as oil and other commodities come down too.

It's not all bad guys. Part of the natural economic cycle. It will make us better at the end of it all.

I'm a big critic of the lack of personal finance education. People should be educated to deal better with bad times and not expect to have a job all their life whether that be the result of recession or illness. Personal responsibility and development if you will.

[no sponsor]

For those of you who watch Andrew Marr, and saw the John Major interview in December, which can be found at

BBC NEWS | Programmes | Andrew Marr Show | 'UK economy is a train wreck' (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/programmes/andrew_marr_show/7782238.stm)

It is a very good interpretation of the current situation. The numbers used to describe the situation the present govt has got us into in terms of debt and the debt repayment is horrifying.

This statement left me cold "...after 12 years of Labour government we now have a level of national debt that is the same as we had after 6 years of world war. That is the scale of the indebtedness and the problem we're in."

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Jaysus lads, remind me to invite yas to my parties....... I wouldn't have it that the life and souls be left out!

Cheer up

Said Dublin Eire: And then yes I called you a moron. Parties? What I'm miserable and would ruin a party? Never been to one of my BBQ's then..

You wonder about my credentials on economics? Sold my house in April 07 to rent because I feared a house price crash. Took all my pension and savings out of the Stock Market at FTSE 6200. Called Oil a bubble that would burst by Xmas 08 in March 08. Warned every wannabe, despite ridicule and condemnation, that training was wasted since Sept 07. Bought Gold.

All. All. Of which I typed out on PPRuNe on these forums for all to see.

So. If you want credentials then I think I've got 'em.

Cocky I know. But bragging rights are bragging rights.


Oh, and Oils a sideshow (currently $39)......



I F-£ing told you so would not be too strong a phrase. But I'm just as frightened as the aveage Wannabe. If I lose my job I'm screwed.

Some of you wannabe wouldn't want cautionary advice if it was plated in gold and sporting a propeller..


WWW

[dublin_eire]

I F-£ing told you so would not be too strong a phrase. But I'm just as frightened as the aveage Wannabe. If I lose my job I'm screwed.

Some of you wannabe wouldn't want cautionary advice if it was plated in gold and sporting a propeller..

Well, if you're as clever as you claim to be maybe you should contain yourself to the parameters of the discussion: "Growing evidence that the upturn is upon us". If not, may I suggest you start another tread.

In keeping with my suggestion here is some relatively good news from the ECB via Bloomberg:

European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said price pressures have diminished and the inflation rate is likely to meet the ECB’s goal of about 2 per cent in the medium term.
“The economic outlook in the euro area has continued to weaken and inflation has declined further,” Mr Trichet said at a hearing in the European Parliament in Brussels today.
“We expect euro-area inflation to remain in line with our definition of price stability over the policy-relevant horizon.”
The European Commission this week forecast the euro-area economy will shrink 1.9 per cent this year. The inflation rate dropped to 1.6 per cent in December, the lowest in more than two years.
The ECB on January 15th cut the benchmark rate by half a percentage point to 2 per cent, matching a record low.
While “risks to economic growth remain on the downside,” Mr Trichet said slower inflation and looser fiscal and monetary policies should help the economy to stage a recovery in 2010.
“The euro area should benefit from broad and far-reaching policy measures reached over the past weeks,” he said.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

You're obviously not aware of the genesis of this threat (ie DOWNTURN) and its thousands of pages.

This thread, not a hundred little ones at every twist and turn, is the place where the economic crisis is discussed. The 'Upturn' part of the thread is somewhat tongue in cheek.

Its horrific. Airlines will go bust. Wannabes will be wiped out.

Ireland will be worse.


WWW

[a797]

Nobody wants mysery guts at their party, smug gold merchants that sold their house before the crash are the fashionable must have at a social gathering these days :ok:

[chrisbl]

Ireland is worse and the probelm they have is being in the Eurozone.

The ECB runs policy to suit the Germans and French.

I suspect Ireland will go the way of Iceland and be at the IMF by the end of the year.

It is in the same camp and Greece Portugal and Spain, a real basket case.

[bucko]

And the UK is a bastion of financial sanity is it....:rolleyes:

[dublin_eire]

I suspect Ireland will go the way of Iceland and be at the IMF by the end of the year.Thanks for your armchair economic contribution Chrisbl.....

The IMF debacle was a result of a mistaken report by an Irish broadcaster based on rumour that An Taoiseach, Brian Cowen, mentioned the IMF while in talks with the social partners(unions and business leaders).

Europe has clarified that they don't see the IMF stepping in. I hope that's true. They'd want to hope so too given that we have a second Lisbon Treaty to vote upon.

Anyways, here's a relevant joke for you miserable bunch of wrinklies:

Q. What's the difference between Iceland and Ireland?
A. One letter and about 6 months.

[JB007]

In 2011, it is extremely likely that the retirement age will increase to 70 although that will be at the discretion of the employee.

Can you imagine doing an LPC/OPC at 70!!!???

[Re-Heat]

The ECB runs policy to suit the Germans and French.
No, it does not. The bulk of the European economy is derived from France and Germany, and in sustaining as much of Europe as possible, policy is inevitablely skewed towards industries in those countries. Nevertheless, policy rates are determined by consensus & voting amoung all €uro area central bankers - France and Germany simply do not outvote the remainder.

As far as Ireland goes, it is not going the same way as Iceland, as it cannot inflate its way out of the debt problem (as Italy and Greece for example did in the past). Instead it must deflate painfully, causing wages to fall - not ony a hard economic task, but a painful political task.

Expect governments there to fall, but ultimately the Celtic tiger will get through it, and survive.

[Glasswasher Man]

:\

I cannot believe what i'm reading sometimes on these forums.

We are entering a depression and there are people with their heads firmly planted in the sand, still wishing to spend money on pilot training/type ratings. Not to mention competing with those qualified laid off captains/FO's with 1000's of hours.

This system has been built on greed and credit. People did not take heed from the Dotcom bubble bursting. So the sheeple moved on to the next Boom and Bust scheme: Housing.

I'm sorry, but I saw this coming, sold my house in october '07, Rented a flat, started flying training but as much as it hurt, quit it late 08.

This country is bankrupt for real.

I don't care if anyone calls me a pessimist. I was being serious in my last post.

[dublin_eire]

Sounds to me more like you quit 'cause you hadn't the balls to see it through. How far did you get through your training?

What does bankruptcy mean on a national level? That there's no money in the bank? Can you show me that money they talk of? Can the government withdraw that out of the national bank? It's all relative, it's all an instrument to measure productivity at that level. It takes on a completely different meaning. I think you're listening to the media far too much.

With Obama in power I can see green energy being the next big investment. The fact he mentioned it in the inauguration means a lot. But, even that said, basic human consumption will continue, people will die, people will be born, life goes on and so does human movement. People want to get around and always will.

Like I said to you, chill out a little!

[Mister Geezer]

There is no sign of a upturn here in the UK and 2009 will undoubtedly be a 'Annus Horribilis'.

I was made redundant in December and I am lucky to get another flying job to see me through for a year or two but this is not in Europe. Only a handful of my former colleagues are flying again and most of them are flying out of Europe where the effects of the economic strain are felt to a lesser extent. The UK aviation industry is quite frankly... on its knees!

One former colleague of mine said that he was on the phone to one of the contract agencies recently. The lady at the other end of the phone said she even had a number of TRIs and TREs who were out of work and that any remaining opportunities are drying out quickly. This could be worse and more prolonged than 9/11! Sorry if this is not what you want to hear!

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

"Chill out a little."


The words there of a mindless ignorant moron too young to know anything different - and now, Charlotte, back to the Studio..

Kent Brockman mode OFF



I think you're listening to the media far too much. They mostly spin that things are going to be OK, that this is an event and that the Government can save everyone/everything.

You're not. Its forever. They can't.


Welcome to the new world. Not like the old world.


WWW

[Reluctant737]

mindless ignorant moron

Rather forward words to describe somebody unbeknown to yourself, WWW :rolleyes:

[dublin_eire]

The words there of a mindless ignorant moron too young to know anything different
If that's what you need to resort to, I'll not be one to sink as low.....

You all make it sound like doomsday is upon us. I know things aren't as good as they were but it can't last forever. Anyways, my aim isn't to prove myself right and you all wrong. I just wanted to put my opinion out there 'cause I was sick of the doom and gloom talk. Job done. Cya later....

[JohnRayner]

Rather forward words to describe somebody unbeknown to yourself, WWW

Possibly true....


Sounds to me more like you quit 'cause you hadn't the balls to see it through. How far did you get through your training?

On the other hand.. :)

[Bealzebub]

Imagine a scenario.

A couple of years ago I had a major change in my financial situation brought upon me by, lets say a divorce. Failing that lets say I had gambling or loan debts that needed settling. Perhaps I bought a house and could no longer afford the repayments. Perhaps I had built up an unmanagable level of debt that simply needed urgent attention. These are a few of the things that might affect anyone at some time in their lives. As a result of these unfortunate events, I had to liquidate anything of any value. I sell the home I cherish, I have to sell anything that has a cash value such as my personal pension or any stocks and bonds I might be holding on to. I cannot afford to run the car, what with the price of oil (petrol,) but that is only one element of the overall running cost. I warn others not to attempt what I achieved for their own good. Despite these setbacks in my life, I meet someone else, we get engaged and I buy her a ring. Clouds have a tendancy to clear eventually.

If any or all of these had happened to me, I could spin these using exactly the same words as WWW has already used:
You wonder about my credentials on economics? Sold my house in April 07 to rent because I feared a house price crash. Took all my pension and savings out of the Stock Market at FTSE 6200. Called Oil a bubble that would burst by Xmas 08 in March 08. Warned every wannabe, despite ridicule and condemnation, that training was wasted since Sept 07. Bought Gold.

Now I am an expert!

It really depends on your perspective. Economies are extremely complex entities that are massively interactive, and interdependent with a huge amount of randomness built in. In many ways they are similar to casinos. They depend on a large number of punters walking through the door. Everyone plays to set a rules (stacked in favour of the house.) However the punter also plays to a set of their own rules. How much risk they will take, are they playing with cash or credit, entertainment, need, compulsion? Do they play at all? Are they there having invested in the business, or are they simply spectators who have their interests elsewhere? In any economy there always a few people who get very lucky betting against the odds. If you believe one of the fundamentals of Keynesian economic theory that "Profit is payment for risk", it follows that the level of risk required will be very high if the goal is high profit. However the word "risk" needs to be understood.

The rules in this casino are also inconsistent. In some games the house is permitted to improve its odds by cheating. In the real world, if two airlines conspire to fix their ticket prices for passenger seats on a given route, or for cargo rates across a particular ocean, they are subject to punitive government sanctions and those responsible threatened with incarceration. However when those same governments have a commodity (say oil) that they want to fix the price of , they are offered complimentary 5 star accomodation to make their task as comfortable and easy as possible. Of course if the customer can't or won't pay the price, then the seller either has to absorb the loss of revenue or drop the price again. It seems only a few months ago that $150 oil was here to stay, and the volitility of the market with all of the distortionary elements caused many to act on the basis of even higher prices. However the complexities and randomness resulted in economies contracting sharply and the customer base falling away. The frenetic action moved away from that particular table game, as queues started forming outside the cashiers office amid rumours that the house was no longer prepared to make credit card cash advances. On and on it goes!

Without doubt there is currently a sharp and severe economic downtown. Perhaps not for everybody, but certainly for the majority. Even those who are less affected will be impacted by their own exposure to things such as their customer base. Many people will be negatively affected and some disasterously so by events that result from this downturn. Given the realities as they stand, or perhaps more importantly as they are perceived, should everyone stop spending and hide behind the sofa? That is the popular wisdom and it is forgivable that in an uncertain market people are frightened and feel vulnerable.

I cannot help but smile that on an aviation discussion board such as this it seems to be "wicked" to allow any rumour or speculation about an airline on the grounds that it might trigger a self fullfilling prophecy, yet when it comes to the aviation training industry, all comers should be discouraged, addressed with insults (morons? zombies?) or otherwise derided. It really doesn't matter that an individual or any group of individuals want to spend large sums of cash on flight training. It really doesn't matter that there may be little or no chance of subsequent employment at this time. If those individuals and or their parents and or their bank managers feel they want to take the risk or make what they see as the investment, that is entirely up to them and it is entirely up to them to calculate the risk (if there is one) as they see fit. There is an industry that relies on these customers for its own survival, and it is fundamentaly wrong and probably pointless to interfere with the marketplace.

Airlines still need to sell seats to places that people might be equally ill advised to go to. That stag weekend in Prague or Athens is probably poor value with beer at £5 a pint, but if the excitement and adventure can still be sold to the customer, then the airline still sells the product. In other words talking down the market is easy, particularly when the market is heading that way in any case. Nevertheless people (even if far less of them) will still pay for that two weeks in the sun or that week on the ski slopes. They will still have to travel on business and eventually the fear and uncertainty will become tiresome and confidence and inevitably overconfidence will return.
When that will be, I haven't a clue and anyone that says that they do, is either basing it on past experience, a set of models or simply guesswork. It might be 6 months, it might be be 6 years, it might even be 60 years. The important word is might. Anyone who can accurately foretell the future wouldn't be wasting their talents on any of these forums, they would be looking forward to a future that (even in the best of times) aviation would never afford them. If the pundits guess a few things right (and they will) they will continue to draw attention to their "wisdom and talents", if they get a few things wrong (and they will) they won't remind anybody, other than to highlight the vagaries of the world economy?

For what it may be worth, I wouldn't advise anybody to go out on a limb in this market, for the simple reason that very few people can afford to take that sort of risk. However if you are fortunate enough or indeed foolish enough to do so, then you do so based on your own perceptions and desire. Commercial flight training is an expensive undertaking, but then so are other things, and it is up to you to do your own research and decide on the level of risk (if any) you want to be exposed to. Whatever may prove to be the rotation speed of the current economic cycle, it is not the case that there is ever an overnight shortage of qualified low houred pilots just waiting to pounce on a sudden glut of airline vacancies. When the upturn does eventually come, the vacancies will be mopped up by the likely plethora of qualified and experienced pilots who may not only have been out of work, but may have simply put off career change and advancement whilst also waiting for the improvement. Embarking on a 18 month to 2 year training plan at the recognised signs of a recovery would not realistically put a wannabee pilot at any material disadvantage in isolation of all the other realities, (there may still be very limited credit, prices may be higher, wages may be lower, regulatory requirements may have changed etc.)

Individuals are very seldom "morons" or "zombies", they are driven by the same set of emotions, rationalities and irrationalitities, desires, aspirations, fears, ego, and instincts, that we all are. Good times or bad that will never change. Even in the depths of recession or depression, people will still need a roof over their head, will still aspire to own that roof whatever the cost, will still desire a better roof. People will still want the best and better for themselves and their children. Just as when times are good, some will go broke in pusuit of those desires and others wont. Those that are lucky and more so those that plan carefully, will probably avoid the worst risks of any recession. For some that do suffer the worst effects things will probably get better. In fact I seem to recall reading on these very forums not too long ago, the advocacy of bankruptcy as a positive way forward? Perhaps this "expert" business is easier than I thought? Anyone got a bigger soapbox for sale? ;)

[CharlieLima]

Is someone gonna print out this thread and make a book out of it?

The Upturn Downturn Argument. Only 14.99

[JohnRayner]

Personal responsibility will be the watch words of the future

Why? Hasn't been for the last 30 years. At least! And with the shining examples of what happens when you screw up that are our banks, I wouldn't be surprised if large swathes of GB decide that personal responsibility isn't worth the time it takes trying to remember how to spell it.

On the subject of FTO's, you're dead right. Caveat emptor and all that. It's important that those who go to be dazzled by the bright lights and the shiny toys have access to other opinions regarding the nature of flight training, in order to come to a balanced decision. So viva la proon! The place to come to in order to offset the glossy brochure syndrome. I think in the long run, this site will have saved me 40k and quite a lot of marital harmony, for roughly the same outcome. No mean feat!

And in the finest traditions of this thread, might I insert the link below. Love him or hate him, WWW has been saying this for a while, even when many, many others were not!

BBC NEWS | Business | UK in recession as economy slides (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7846266.stm)

Regards

JR

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

I now know of 5 wannabes going down the Bankruptcy path. This trickle will turn into a torrent as the year wears on.

Todays figures showing a 4.5% contraction on the quarter for Manufacturing is just horrific. Thats an annual 18% contraction. The UK is the worlds 5th largest manufacturer. This is approaching depression level event.

This will be far far worse than the 1991 recession which sent Dan Air and Air Europe under and put hundreds of experienced pilots out of work. The next question is wether or not this recession will be worse than the 1980 recession.

WWW

[JohnRayner]

It's going to be a biggie. What am I saying, it is a biggie!

Interestingly, the same beeb article I read described the mean length of recession in GB as three quarters, with the last two going on for five quarters. Now that we're here, I wonder how long we're going to be here...

2010 for an upturn is looking ever more likely. Thank god my boss told me she'd keep me on 'til mid 2010. Must be my charm and devilish good looks ;)

JR

[Sciolistes]

you cannot build an economy on debt where virtually the only 'industries' you possess are finance and house building.
All modern economies are built on debt. Debt is quite literally currency. Without debt there would be little economic growth.

Personal responsibility will be the watch words of the future
My personal opinion, but I think that personal responsibility went for good since the powers that have been and continue to be obsessed on new legislation and regulation as solutions.

[dublin_eire]

but it would appear the guy is currently training for his CPL/IR which kind of gives you some background to his forever optimistic point of view.

PPL actually. Not borrowing any money and do plan on taking my time. I've worked up considerable savings and plan on working up more in the run of things even if that means putting bean tins on shelves.... I'm even going to try getting my hour building for free, fingers crossed....

I was watching that BBC programme last night with Michael Portello and they had a man by the name of Hutton on too who was giving severe warnings. He mentioned the IMF and that if it came to a point where Britain needed help not even the IMF could help because it only has a fund of 500 billion and Britain's debt goes beyond that!!! In the 1976 the IMF helped out Britain with 3 billion. It's not like things haven't been bad in the past. And the funny thing is when things turn around they often turn around as fast as you've seen this downturn. Ireland is an example of that.
Someone mentioned above that Ireland's problem is it is part of the Eurozone but on BBC last night they were saying that it is Britain's disadvantage not being part of the Eurozone. At the moment you're seeing a run on the pound, partly as result of Jim Rogers advice to sell Sterling. You need to join!

I am optimistic. I'm confident this period will pass. 2009 will be tough, probably 2010 for many too, but beyond that I'm hopeful. In Europe we will have the Oylmpics again. That will help London out a lot!

[JohnRayner]

I am optimistic. I'm confident this period will pass. 2009 will be tough, probably 2010 for many too, but beyond that I'm hopeful. In Europe we will have the Oylmpics again. That will help London out a lot!

Good for you. I think optimism (tempered with a bit of realism) is a fine thing. And it sounds like you've got a plan, which is more than some have.

I think everyone has some faith/ confidence in this period passing. The alternative would see us driving round in souped up cars, wearing dodgy leather and wielding crossbows, or something. The smart money will be the money that figures out when this period ends, and what it is that will drag us all out of it.

I for one will be VERY interested to see what the Olympics does for us in the current climate. It may just be my innate english cynicism, but it was beginning to seem like a bit of a white elephant before the economy went tits up. Now......?

Regards to all,

JR

[RVR800]

It seems that some of the negative talk is not quite right..

BBC NEWS | Business | Easyjet issues buoyant forecast (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7844209.stm)

[Mister Geezer]

A TRE from my last airline was last known to be looking at driving a white van around London for £7/hr! Need I say more?

[chrisbl]

There is a simple truth. My spending is someones income. If I dont spend someone else wont get paid.

If there is the prospect of deflation the I will hold off spending if I think prices will go lower.

If there is inflation, I will buy early if I think prices will rise.

Think what you did during the fuel price changes.
Filled the tank when the prices were shooting up and half filled the tank as they are falling.

The end game of deflation is that we get an appetite for not spending - then we are all stuffed. The banks end up with a load of money they are unable to lend and everything shuts down.

Japan had been in the stagnacy of deflation for the last 15 years with interest rates at zero for most of it.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

The period 2002 - 2007 marked irrational confidence.

What most people don't understand because they are never told is that money is debt. A bank has a million pounds. It lends all of it to me in exchange for a piece of paper called a loan agreement where I promise to pay it back plus interest. This piece of paper is a debt. As such a bank is allowed to call 8/9ths of it an asset. So it can lend out 8/9ths of a million pounds to someone else. They are compelled by international banking rules (BAsle II) to keep that ratio of 8/9th's intact. Guess what happens to the loan agreement (debt) for £900k... it is used to issue £720k of new loans. Which spawns £648k of new loans, which spawns.. you get the idea. Your £1m loan turns into a multi million pound lending frenzy.

But if you go bust or suddenly pay back the original £1m. All the other loans need to be recalled if Basle II deposit ratio rules are to be respected

These rules are currently being flouted and the regulators are ignoring this under pressure from the governments who are owned by the banks..

Leverage.




Money is debt.

Now the problem comes when people start NET paying off their debt rather than getting deeper in it.

If I repay the bank the million that I owe them and don't take out another loan then the maintain their capital adequacy rules (Basle II) they need to cancel £8 million of loans. It was my loan agreement for £1m that allowed them to lend another £8m and stay within the rules.. This is how banks create money out of thin air.

Banks are not afraid to lend to each other. Banks have the money to lend to people.

What banks are terrified of is people paying back their debts. Debt deflation. Or writing off their debt contracts by going bankrupt.

For every £1 written off or paid back the banks have to shrink their loanbook by 9 times.




Money is debt.




There is nothing easier than making money out of thin air if you are a bank. Which is why banking licenses are so rare, so fought over, so lucrative and so connected to political influence.

They don't even tell you that they don't teach any of this in school. They don't want you to know how banks and money works and what it is.

The biggest lie the devil ever told was that he didn't exist.


WWW

[getoffmycloud]

"A bank has a million pounds. It lends all of it to me in exchange for a piece of paper called a loan agreement where I promise to pay it back plus interest. This piece of paper is a debt. As such a bank is allowed to call 8/9ths of it an asset. So it can lend out 8/9ths of a million pounds to someone else. They are compelled by international banking rules (BAsle II) to keep that ratio of 8/9th's intact. Guess what happens to the loan agreement (debt) for £900k... it is used to issue £720k of new loans. Which spawns £648k of new loans, which spawns.. you get the idea. Your £1m loan turns into a multi million pound lending frenzy. "

WWW that is not true I am afraid. Loans sit on a banks balance sheet as "assets" on the other side of the balance sheet they have to be funded by either deposits or wholesale funding. If a bank wants to make a loan it has to get the funding from somewhere. Problem in the UK is the banking system has a loan/deposit ratio of c140% i.e. we are overlent. The gap was made up by "wholesale" funding which is typically where the excess loans were chopped up in to debt securities such as ABS (asset backed securities) and sold to investors or the bank issues debt of its own to investors (i.e. pensions funds etc). The problem is now the wholesale funding markets are shut due to the economic mess we are in which means bank balance sheets need to shrink (i.e. get the 140% down to c100%). Bottom line is if a bank wants to make a loan it has to get the funding from somewhere. The magic mutlipier you imply does not actually exist. For every £ a banks lends it has to raise a £ in funding somewhere.

The Basle accord is about capital not funding. It determines how much capital a bank must hold to protect depositors against defaulting loans. Unfortunately UK banks are woefully short of capital.

More than happy to bore you silly over a beer as to the in and outs of how bank balance sheets work and how the UK stacks up vs banking systems around the world.

[Sciolistes]

That is what WWW said, just perhaps, I guess, not as precisely as you might have preferred and may have overstated what happens if a debt is defaulted. Nevertheless, it served the purpose of trying to get the message out that debt is the fundamental fuel of the economy.

Unfortunately, as per the old aviation saying: "The only time you have too much fuel is when you're on fire". We're on fire :{

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Well I wasn't penning an undergraduate essay on the topic - just trying to convey to a wider audience that banks essentially conjure money out of thin air backed by nothing other than another debt.

I didn't even touch on the fact that the lent money can never be fully repaid as the debt plus interest is greater than the money in existence...

Money as Debt

YouTube - Money As Debt (1 of 5) (http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=vVkFb26u9g8)



WWW



A great industrial nation is controlled by its system of credit. Our system of credit is privately concentrated. The growth of the nation, therefore, and all our activities are in the hands of a few men Woodrow Wilson 1913, US President who signed the Federal Reserve into existence.

[Sciolistes]

WWW,
I didn't even touch on the fact that the lent money can never be fully repaid as the debt plus interest is greater than the money in existence...
I did, several pages back. But then I don't have your charisma :}

[tom775257]

While it seems an obvious statement, at least in the UK airline I work for, next winter onwards is apparently worrying the management a lot.

I work for a well known short haul/long haul airline which hasn't been mentioned with regards to pilot redundancies, I'm a 3 bar FO with 1400 hours Airbus, 2000 total time, I have been informed my (permanent contract) job is not assured at the moment, it is under discussion. Now I feel like a right dick purchasing a BMW that is currently sat depreciating heavily on the driveway :=

[getoffmycloud]

Socioliates that isnt what WWW said. He said a bank can take $1 and turn it into $8-9... as far as I am aware post 15 years in the banking industry they can't. If banks want to lend $1 they have to raise $1 of funding to do it either via deposits or wholesale funding markets. Wholesale funding = money typically from pension funds or money market funds rather than traditional money you have on deposit with a bank, there is no making money from nothing popular as that myth is. The trick for banks to lend to $1 out at a higher interest rate than it costs them to raise it and make a spread. Banks cannot magically raise $1 of funding and turn it into $10 dollars of loans. You are mistaking banks capital base with it funding base.

WWW is well informed but talking Sh*t on this (rare) occasion. Only 1 bank in the UK can create money from nothing and it is the Bank of England because it has a printing press and literally a license to print money.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

As far as I'm aware Nationwide are the closest to being a bank-like institution whose loans outstanding match its deposits on account. Even then its not quite, it had something like 86% of its loan book balanced by savings deposits last time I checked.

The likes of RBS were down to something like 6% and sinking fast.

WWW

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

YouTube - Money As Debt (2 of 5) (http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=sanOXoWl0kc&feature=related)

This 9 minute episode shows how the banks can take £1,111.12p of its own money to loan out £100,000 and collect the interest on the money that it never had.

Subconciously everybody knows that banks lend money they don't have.


WWW

[getoffmycloud]

That youtube video is total bollocks in my opinion. If a bank only has $1000 dollars of capital/funding it cannot lend out $10,000. Put it this way what if I was the borrower of the $10,000 and asked to take the money in hard cash.... where would it come from then??

[JohnRayner]

I was the borrower of the $10,000 and asked to take the money in hard cash.... where would it come from then??You'd get it, because you're not the only customer of the bank! The bank is required to have an amount of money to hand to pay out, but as far as I can tell that doesn't have to be anything like the amount they have on the books as deposits.

Your next question will be: What happens if everyone in a bank wants their money all at once? The answer. Northern Rock.

As for the printing money thing. With BACS and plastic, how much of the money that you "own" is ever at any one time in a hard currency format? Some ridiculous fraction of a percent, in my own case. The rest is on a computer somewhere.

I get paid by electronic transfer. I bought my last car by electronic transfer. My house purchase was an electronic transfer. I buy food with same when I pay switch. I only ever use cash down the pub!

All banking is built on confidence. When enough people start saying "show me the money" at the same time, it all goes pop.




Oh, sorry, I've just read the word "borrow" in that sentence! Alright then, you've asked to borrow 10k from me, and you want it in tenners. I say "no", and I'm making the loan, so what are you going to do? Every loan I've ever had was, wait for it.... transferred electronically into my electronic bank account!

I stand by the above as it relates to depositors. Sorry for mis-reading your post

JR

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

That youtube video is total bollocks in my opinion. If a bank only has $1000 dollars of capital/funding it cannot lend out $10,000. Put it this way what if I was the borrower of the $10,000 and asked to take the money in hard cash.... where would it come from then??


It would come in hard cash. Which would be taken around to the car dealership, handed over and then rushed back to a bank before it had a chance to close for the day.

Fractional Reserve Banking works exactly in this way. The banks conjure money out of thin air backed by a tiny amount of real money and a whole lot of other debts counted as being the same as money. The amount of money in the world is only constrained by the populations desire to take on debt. This is why we have all been pre-approved for an any purpose loan/credit card/overdraft and get sent 3 letters a week every week telling us so.

You sign that credit agreement and the bank can call that 9/10ths as good as real money and lend it out all over again and charge someone else interest on that. And so on and so on.

Many banks are bankrupt. Welcome to the real Matrix.


WWW


ps And that uTube video is spot on 100% correct and accurate. Its just so astonishing that many people find it hard to believe.

[getoffmycloud]

Great so a bank balance sheets doesn't have to balance.... on one side we have $10,000 of loans.... on the other $1,000 of deposits... accountants of the world will have a heart attack. Hurrah the imaginary desposits they lend out that don't really exist.

You end up with a Northern Rock because the banks make 5 year loans with the deposits customers give to them.... if everyone trys to withdraw deposits at once the have a duration missmatch as you can't force everyone to repay there mortgages instantly so the banks runs out liquidity (in essence the deposit you and I put with the bank is lent out as a loan with the banks capital base acting as a buffer in case of default on the loan).

Take a look at a simple bank balance sheet (I would suggest Nationwide as WWW mentions).... you will find that deposits +wholesale funding + equity = loans + other investments.... wow the balance sheet balances.... if as a bank you can't raise deposits or wholesale funding you can't lend. The fact that a fraction of the money in "hard cash" is irrelevent. Banks can only lend based on the the amounts of funds (deposits or wholesale funding) they can raise.

If You can't raise incremental deposits or access wholesale funding markets you can't lend = credit crunch. In this latest credit crunch wholesale funding markets shut so banks could not roll wholesale funding hence unable to lend any more money.


If you want to make a loan as a bank you HAVE TO FUND IT on he other side of the balance sheet!! Otherwise why bother taking deposits as a bank!

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

"Banking was conceived in iniquity and born in sin. Bankers own the earth; take it away from them but leave them with the power to create credit; and, with a flick of a pen, they will create enough money to buy it back again. Take this power away from them and all great fortunes like mine will disappear, and they ought to disappear, for then this world would be a happier and better world to live in. But if you want to be slaves of bankers and pay the cost of your own slavery, then let the bankers control money and control credit."

Sir Josiah Stamp, Director, Bank of England, c. 1940 (the second richest man in Britain at the time - was killed).


And.


"Banks lend by creating credit. They create the means of payment, out of nothing."

Ralph M. Hawtery (Former Secretary of the British Treasury)



And.

"We are completely dependant on the commercial banks. Someone has to borrow every dollar we have in circulation, cash or credit. If the banks create ample synthetic money we are prosperous; if not, we starve. We are absolutely without a permanent money system.... It is the most important subject intelligent persons can investigate and reflect upon. It is so important that our present civilization may collapse unless it becomes widely understood and the defects remedied very soon."

Robert H. Hamphill, Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank


------------


That's off the top of my head.

I'd be happy to hear your thoughts having 15 years looking at banks balance sheets getoffmycloud.

WWW

[getoffmycloud]

WWW I can only think we must be arguing about different things which is somewhat lost in translation on an internet forum!

It would be a pleasure to buy you a beer next time I am in the UK and discuss the current ills of the UK banking system. Would also be more than happy to give you a tour of our trading floor as well if that holds an interest for you.

I have actually left the UK because my concerns over the health of the UK banking system are so great that I felt it necessary to move to protect my career, my family and our standard of living. It was not a decision I took likely but the current collapse in Sterling is starting to justify the move in my mind.

I genuinely lie awake at night worrying about family and friends in the UK and what they are likely to face over the next 1-2 years. The recession we have seen to date is just warming up.... on that you and I certainly agree.

P.S evidence to date from where I am sitting would suggest the BoE and Government don't have an f'ing clue about banks and banking hence the mess we are in today... so the quotes above I read with a grin on my face.

[belleh]

What Wee Weasley Welshman is describing is the Fractional Reserve System; a very real system that's in effect today and has been for many years. Start here: Fractional-reserve banking (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fractional-reserve_banking) and follow the references and whatnot. There are also numerous documentaries around which confirm this, along with hard evidence from the likes of the Federal Reserve.

This is not some obscure UK system either, it is operated throughout most of the developed world. I urge you to look into this, I've been reading up on it for months now. It's very interesting (and scary) stuff.

Currency is quite literally debt, in our current system it cannot be created in any other way. Inflation and recessions are also a required feature of this system. However, bank runs, hyper inflation and recessions that lead to depression present a very real and present danger.

If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the people of all their property until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered. - President Thomas Jefferson

[chrisbl]

Get of my cloud and WWW you are arguing over the same point and are both rightish in principle. This is how it works

The probelm has been that banks need to have the assets supported by at least 5% of their own money.

So lets look at some simple numbers.

Banks Capital 5 .....................Assets (loans to customers) 100
Loans to bank 95

total 100 ............................................................ 100

Now a customer defaults and 1 unit gets written off.

Banks Capital 4 ..............................................Assets 99
Loans to bank 95

Total 99 ............................................................ .....99

Now to stay within the capital adequacy limits the bank has to dispose of assets. This is where the rot sets in. The best assets have to go, and loans paid off.

Now we have to readjust as follows:

Banks Capital 4 ...................................................Assets 80
Loans to Bank 76

Total ............80.............................................. .............. 80

This called de leveraging. So big loses do impact the banks borrowing ability. If deleveraging is done well there might be a small profit but a forced sale could increase the loss and we have to delever again.
As the bank's capital decreases it ability to borrow decreases.

Hence we are in the mire we are in.

To rebuild a capital base banks can either get new money from shareholders or increase the profit they make from customers from charges and the spread between what they borrow at and what they lend at.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Agree with all of the above and I'd be delighted to offer you one of my home brewed ciders, within the impregnable compound that is my farm and its armed panic room - full of beans.. Venturing into public to drink will be far far too dangerous in 2010.

Gents I thank all of you for your comments so far and encourage you to continue. The value is that Wannabes learn something that they otherwise wouldn't. This is the reason for building this forum and the reason I cut its grass to this day.

We're probably a bit ahead of our strict remit in covering the banking system and what money is but - heck - it won't hurt them to learn.


WWW

[JohnRayner]

Ta. :)

It's not all about planes round here, is it?

Regards

JR

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Planes? What with Ailerons and stuff? NAH... this an international finance forum mate. If you want people talking about flying aircraft you'd be better off at www.banking-system.co.uk

WWW

[chrisbl]

Every activity translates into money some time or other so it makes sense to understand they whys and wherefors.

I learnt very early on that to understand a business you need to understand how the money works.

Each business may have its own money flows but they all use the same banks.
So better understand how the system works.

[hughesyd]

A very good video showing exactly how it is in the world today, shocking as it is to beleive!.

Any amount of national monetry reform would have a negative effect on our economy as this is a global problem and needs to be tackled at a global level.

Also shows in reality how close we have come to a collapse of the global finacial markets, and its not over yet by a long stretch.

The system shows that actually, if you are a saver and avoid credit at all costs, your going to end up worse off, you got to be in it to win it, a slave to the system in effect.

is it infinate in the amount this system can carry on growing througout the global economy?, as surely the differential between interest and actual debt can only get bigger. If we come out of it this time unscathed, how many years before we end up in trouble again.

[waco]

Brilliant guys ! I really enjoyed this and learned a lot. Can we now have a go for world peace !:D

[expedite08]

What people forget certainly in the UK is that our tax and spend Government is going to make the UK a ver very unhappy and unbearable place to live in the future. When this recession does slowly come to an end its then going to be down to robbing jo public to get all that spent money back. We think we have high income taxes and NI now, throw in a a nice dose of VAT increase and some other bits and bobs and were all F**** for many years ahead!

Thats my theory anyway, I stand to be corrected by WWW and the crew.

Oh and some how we are going to stage the olympics in three years time! I fear we could end up making a big big mess and as a nation having mud all over our face! :ugh:

[hughesyd]

What really gets me is some of the top economists and "financial gurus" who laughed when a couple of years ago , many of the more forward thinking and realists said that there would be a ressesion, the "bubble would burst" and it would be as bad as it has turned out.

Here is a perfect example, here is Peter Chiff being publicy mocked and laughed off air when he predicted EXACTLY what is happening in the world today.

LiveLeak.com - PEOPLE LAUGHED IN 2007 ... (http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=b0a_1232747931)

Its a bit like the "Doctor" syndrome, we put our trust in their dignosis because after all, they are a Doctor, why would we question it, they are the experts.
Point being there are good and bad in every proffesion and sometimes we should question why they have that opinion or have made that decision if something inside is saying, that just doesnt make sense!. its easy for us all to be influenced by a individual or organisation who portrays superior knowlege or experience just to go along with it. I think many of us have benifited from the good times and not rerally wanted to beleive what was about to happen.

At least they recognised that fact years ago in aviation with the advancements in CRM!!.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

hughesyd - I agree. Income tax for most Captains by 2013 will be 45%. Crime, burglary and knife and violent crime will be sharply up. The tax paying majority will be far more critical of the benefit claiming minority.

And its not coming back. This isn't an interruption to normal conditions. This is a permanent change.

The past decade was a once-only bubble. The airline pilot job growth it brought are now over.


WWW

[bjkeates]

The airline pilot job growth it brought are now over

In which case it will be interesting to see what happens to the big FTOs offering expensive integrated courses. There just won't be enough jobs for the number of 'graduates' (hate that word) they churn out, so surely one would expect to see the number of people embarking on such courses tailing off quite sharply over the next few years. How will they keep people handing over the cheques, and where will be the incentive to start training if there are no jobs at the other end? Fancy PR can only go so far.

[a797]

I was having my medical renewed last week in dublin, I asked the nurse if there was a reduction in people taking initial class 1 medicals and she said there was a huge reduction.

Sign of the times i reckon....not good news for FTOs.

[bajadj]

Sadly I can see it going the other way, with the integrated schools surviving on the "daddy i want to be a pilot and this nice man from oxford says the only way to do it these days is to give him £63,000" brigade.

It will be the smaller schools with more prudent, but less well off, customers that will fall by the wayside.

I really hope this isn't the case but i can see more elitism and "not what you know, but who you know" on the way.

[hughesyd]

never a true word spoken, and i am halfway through a modular route i might add!!.

WWW in a previous thread summed it up for me with the perfect description, describing the intergrated route at the moment as "zombie like". To be fair, who can blame them, if they have the means and the "dream" still in place, its hard to go against everything you have wanted all your life. Even the well experienced guys on here must remember the days when they were first starting out and dreamed of flying the big jets. Granted things were very different then, but the dream doesnt change.

But changed it has, and as painful as it is to be realistic, that we must be, and weigh up the cost of throwing away good money over bad, in a hope of that dream jet job , earning big money and living the life of the guy in the recent Virgin Add!!.:ooh::ooh:

Joking aside, i have about 3 weeks to make the decision whether to carry on with the modular route, or forget aviation entirely and carry on in M and E engineering. But like everything else, thats Boll££%xed as well!!. i think im more inclined to think about moving countries at the moment!!.

strap yourselves in, its gonna be one hell of a ride!!!

[JohnRayner]

More high-end reporting by the beeb on the stories that really matter...

BBC NEWS | Health | Breast ops defy financial gloom (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/7846555.stm)

:ok:

JR

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

The BBC bless them only stopped calling it a Downturn this week when Sky News has been talking about The Recession for months. Auntie doesn't like to scare the children..

WWW

[expedite08]

Hughseyd,

Dont give up hope though for the future. PersonallyI would maybe put it on hold for a while to see how it all pans out! I have done exactly that, modular and 20 hours in to the IR, but needs must and my concentration must go in to keeping my job and lucky for me I have had a progression chance too, so my focus must now be with that. Add to that getting married at the end of the year and looking for a house! I am not prepeared to throw that away for what is really a lottery. No matter what people say its pure luck! RULE 1: KEEP YOUR JOB!

Decison time for me will really come towards the latter part of this year. My ATPL credits expire next May ( unless the CAA see sense and see that that the industry is currently stagnant, and therefore take the silly time limits off! )

Best of luck to all :ok:

[Grass strip basher]

This man truely has no shame... and if he genuinely believes the twadle in this link that he should not shoulder a significant proportion of the blame for what is going on then frankly that is even more worrying... a delusional, unelected man with the support of only a fraction of the population that will do anything to stay in power... a bankrupt economy... potentially spiralling inflation... a collapsing financial system....it sound like bloody Zimbabwe.... is it only me that harbours a growing hatred (and I don't use that word lightly)for this idiot?

Gordon Brown: "I called for global financial reform ten years ago" - Times Online (http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/banking_and_finance/article5590281.ece)

I didn't used to give a monkeys about politics but every time this prat opens his mouth it is like rubbing salt in an open wound.

Sorry rant over.... just needed to vent... stressful day :oh:

[NickGooseBrady]

The Commercial FTO I am currently at has never been busier! Odd, very odd. I suspect there must be some sort of lag, if it is still just as busy in 12 months time then I would be even more suprised. It is a modular school though so perhaps they will be the winners and the likes of OAA et al will start to struggle?

[expedite08]

Quite right Nick I would say, lots would have booked on to courses in the last 6 months or so as you say there is a lag at the moment. Give it six to nine months and the FTO's will start flagging

[heli_port]

British Airways has warned it expects to make an operating loss of about £150m in the airline's 2008/2009 financial year.
The airline blamed economic weakness and the fall in the value of sterling for the deteriorating outlook.
It said that non-fuel costs were now expected to rise by 8%, compared with an earlier forecast of 5%.


BBC NEWS | Business | Weak pound hurts British Airways (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7851738.stm) :oh:

[Superpilot]

So WWW, which shares you buying right now?

I've got about £5k to spare. Was thinking RBS at 14p. Even if the price goes up to 250p in 3 years, by my calculations that's an £80k profit. Good move?

http://chart.finance.yahoo.com/c/2y/r/rbs.l

http://uk.ichart.yahoo.com/w?s=RBS.L

[Grass strip basher]

Not if it is nationalised and there are many many many more shares now in issue than there were when it was at 600p a why would it ever get back to 250p??

If you are not a specialist bank analyst then you may as well take your money to the casino and put it on red/black. It would just be a punt.

[Mister Geezer]

Guys - you should be spread trading and not buying and selling shares. Spread trading is tax free! (Back to the thread now I guess!)

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

RBS - a share price that fell by 80%, then halved. I practically begged my dear old mum to sell all her Barclays shares at 350p as she's built them up as an employee all her working life... but she wouldn't listen - banks never collapse etc. etc.

If you want to invest then its only the mega-caps that makes any sense. Anything with a super reliable dividend and anything with exposure to major public infrastructure spending or which holds massive PFI contracts or provide swathes of public services such as Serco. I'd bet on the USA heading out of recession first and fastest and stay the hell away from the Eurozone for the next 18 months.

Pay off your debt. Conserve your money. Move somewhere safe.


WWW

[RVR800]

I believe that Easy Jet is a good bet at the moment:ok:

.....making loads of money

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Amen!


WWW

[Canada Goose]

.......well 'er indoors was having a good ol' whinge a couple of nights ago about the cost of Easyjet fares (LPL-Nice) !! She wants to go during the May half-term with her mum and our 2 kids and claims Ezy want £250 each ! I think she will be looking into other destinations as a result ! I hope Ezy don't price themselves out of the market, but then again what do you expect during kids hols !! ??

Thread creep I know ........ or is it ?

[Screwballs]

Just had a quick look and the prices seem to be £25ish each way...

[bucko]

One company thats defying the recession, increasing demand pushing up production and as a result, hiring more staff. "Orders are up to the ceiling and out the door!" said the CEO of Sh1t Creek Paddlemakers LTD.....:}

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

When I said "move somewhere safe"...

Europe's winter of discontent - Telegraph (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/personal-view/4363750/Europes-winter-of-discontent.html)


The French are in revolt. On Thursday, teachers, television employees, postal workers, students and masses of other public-sector workers will be united in a hugely-popular strike with car workers, supermarket staff, journalists and thousands of others in the private sector.
One poll said that 75 per cent of the public supported the action,

A depression triggered in America is being played out in Europe with increasing violence, and other forms of social unrest are spreading. In Iceland, a government has fallen. Workers have marched in Zaragoza, as Spanish unemployment heads towards 20 per cent. There have been riots and bloodshed in Greece, protests in Latvia, Lithuania, Hungary and Bulgaria. The police have suppressed public discontent in Russia



Economic hardship spawned demonstrations. It allowed extremists to gather support after a loss of faith in mainstream political movements. Economic catastrophe bred Franco, Mussolini and Hitler.


And most worryingly accurate...

I WARNED OF CRISIS TEN YEARS AGO THEN DID ABSOLUTELY NOTHING ABOUT IT, SAYS BROWN - The Daily Mash (http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/politics/politics-headlines/i-warned-of-crisis-ten-years-ago-then-did-absolutely-nothing-about-it%2c-says-brown-200901271536/)


My new gun cabinet is being delivered on Friday - is that too bearish dya' think?

WWW

[Mister Geezer]

The French are in revolt. On Thursday, teachers, television employees, postal workers, students and masses of other public-sector workers will be united in a hugely-popular strike with car workers, supermarket staff, journalists and thousands of others in the private sector.
One poll said that 75 per cent of the public supported the action,

The French will use anything for an excuse to go on strike! :}

[waco]

.............somebody said (allegedly) that Pedigree Chum has gone..............

they have called in the retrievers..................:p

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

That's enough of that.

To brighten people's spirits a tad maybe consider this:


From the UK Office of National Statistics, here are the mean salaries for the 20 best paying jobs for men working full time in the UK during 2008 (excluding banking).


1. Director/chief executive of a major organization: £136k
2. Corporate managers and ‘senior officials’: £110k
3. Medical practitioners: £80k
4. Health professionals: £74k
5. Aircraft pilots and flight engineers: £74k
6. Financial managers and chartered secretaries: £70k
7. Senior officials in national government: £68k
8. Managers in mining and energy: £65k
9. Air traffic controllers: £64k
10. Dental practitioners: £62k
11. Solicitors, lawyers, judges and coroners: £60k
12. Personnel, training and industrial relations managers: £60k
13. Legal professionals: £59k
14. Functional managers: £57k
15. Police officers (inspector and above): £56k
16. Purchasing managers: £53k
17. Marketing and sales managers: £53k
18. Senior officials in local government: £53k
19. Legal professionals n.e.c.*: £52k
20. Pharmacy managers: £52k


WWW

[Grass strip basher]

There is going to be an avalanche of talented, bright people coming out of the city back into the "real world".... so competition for jobs will be intense.