Growing Evidence That The Upturn Is Upon Us

[I like planes & stuf]

Great salary - all that remains is actually landing that first job, a bit tricky at the moment.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Right, that's it lads, you've had you lunch hour off - now back to the misery:




Britain's recession will be deepest, IMF warns - Telegraph (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/recession/4373134/Britains-recession-will-be-deepest-IMF-warns.html)



Britain's recession will be deepest, IMF warns

Britain's recession will be deeper than any other major country this year, the International Monetary Fund warned today as the banking crisis continues to send shudders through the rest of the economy.

By Jamie Dunkley
Last Updated: 3:17PM GMT 28 Jan 2009
British gross domestic product will contract 2.8pc this year, a sharper and more painful decline than the IMF now forecasts for America, the Eurozone or Japan. The new forecast compares with a prediction of a 1.3pc decline made in November.




If we see something like 3% decline in one year we'll be looking at the worst recession since WW2. If his happens we'll lose dozens of significant airlines. If that happens there will be tens of thousands of unemployed pilots.

Join the dots.


WWW

[Re-Heat]

What on earth is a chartered secretary???!

[wheelbrace]

This was the old tax return entry for a Lord's Lady - before she was made redundant, obviously, and his Lordship had to go to lobbyists for his next Porsche.:hmm:

[R T Jones]

For a moment there WWW I thought hell had frozen over! Good to see your keeping up your position of PPRUNE Doom monger. I often get a hard time from my studying colleges for being rather downbeat about the economy and job prospects when we finish training, it does get boring always saying the same negative things but I feel it's important that people at least know about them. Yes, the job market and world economy is in a pretty bad place at the moment but things will stableise. Only a few months ago the treasury were predicting the UK economy to grow in 2009 and now the IMF are predicting a considerable contraction. Oil was predicted to go to $200 a barrel, within 6 months it had dropped to $30. Its extremely tough for everyone at the moment, but I do remain confident that the global economy will recover. Maybe not to growth levels we have seen previously, but at least to a more stable environment.

I watched the youtube video of Money is Debt and its quite scary, it allows banks to create money which is debt. Its scary that the loan agreement i have with the bank can be sold to a 3rd party for cash. It helps understand what toxic debt etc is. Maybe EASA should put replace a module in the ATPL's with Global Economics. Would be a laugh!

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Glad you learned a little about something so massively important to the working of the modern world that the public ignorance of it is, in itself, marvelously scary.

Personal finance, banking, credit, compound interest - none of these things are taught with any structure or prominence in the education system. Conspiracy theorists would imagine it is because it serves the rich and the powerful well to keep the general population ignorant of it all.

Belief in money is as important to modern society as food, shelter and gravity. Belief in Banks is a proxy for belief in money. For this reason any amount of support can be found for any bank, by any Government, at any time. It is simply their highest priority over any other task or desire.




Consider the rule of 70. This rule helps estimate doubling time. Something growing at 7% a year will double in 10 years. At 14% its 5 years and at 1% its 70 years. You get the idea.

Now look at CAA data for UK airline passenger growth - they did a recent report:

http://www.caa.co.uk/docs/589/erg_recent_trends_final_v2.pdf


Roughly speaking, since 1994 growth rates have bobbed around 6%. Thereby giving a doubling every 12 years. This in either nature or economics is a very fast doubling rate. It CANNOT continue.

In fact as we all know it will contract. It has plenty of scope for contraction as even losing a fifth of the entire industry would only put us back where we were three years ago.. Which is what house prices have already done.

The party is well and truly over and even recovery to 0% growth will take some time to achieve and maintain. Wannabes have to realise that the power of the maths is against them this time in a way it has not been for nearly 20 years.

The West has been living a dream subsidized by the industrial revolutions of the Far East. The dream is now over. The Nightmares are now upon us.

WWW

[Lurking123]

I prefer the lunch hour fun.

[helimutt]

WWW, I have to laugh every time I log in and read some young persons quote that it'll get better, it's not as bad as all that, things will turn around etc etc.
Don't they get it yet? This is going to be hell on earth, and not just for wannabe pilots. Boeing plan to cut HOW MANY JOBS???? No virgin pay rises this year. BA lose millions. Deeper and deeper we fall, Brown and Darling must be sh*tting in their pants about the legacy they'll leave. Or maybe not?

Maybe they should make the coffee stronger so it really does give off a more intense aroma on waking.

I can't wait to see where we are in June/July 2009. As for shotguns? It might just be a very good plan!

[R T Jones]

I'm all for realism, but the picture I see being painted is of the world going back a few hundred years. True survival of the fittest where we have to fight each other for food and shelter. Forgive me for being optimistic but I truly can't see that happening. At least your laughing, nothing worse than no sense of humour :)

[smith]

The French are in revolt

I think you should have said "the French are revolting".:D

[smith]

5. Aircraft pilots and flight engineers: £74k

20. Pharmacy managers: £52k


Am I not lucky? I'm both!

[clear prop!!!]

My new gun cabinet is being delivered on Friday - is that too bearish dya' think?

WWW

Now WWW, did you fill in correctly the bit on your shotgun application/renewal that asks about depression etc? They really are quite strict about that these days!!...but there again,.. maybe causing depression doesn't count!! :)

[helimutt]

Oh come off it, you're making me feel old at the grand old age of forty!

Whatever age you are right now, I can probably guarantee you'll never see the likes of this economic crisis in your lifetime. The fact you point out jobs in supermarkets looking rosy, shows your complete ignorance of the facts before you. So the supermarkets are the saviours from the economic crisis? Makes me wonder why GB and AD spent billions of taxpayers money propping up the banks then? Our kids will be affected by this during their working lifetime I think.

Oh, hang on, so you can have thousands of checkout people in many new supermarkets. Great. I'm so glad the crisis is now over then. We obviously don't need manufacturng anymore as no-one is buying anything. We only need to be able to pop down to tescos/asda etc to get the shopping from now on and to hell with a stable economic climate.

Green transport? Come off it. We're years away from all driving eco cars. You'll still need the existing coal powered power stations to charge the batteries. No nuclear reactors on the horizon for a few years yet.

I'm considering myself one of the lucky ones with a flying job for now. Wonder how long it will last. Surely the gas in the North Sea will last another couple of years yet?

[Alex Whittingham]

Ah you chaps, you're like sheep. 'Complete ignorance' eh? One thing you at least should have noticed in the last 6 months is the total failure of the massed financial experts of the western world to predict anything more than 6 inches from their noses or six hours in the future with a success rate greater than 50%. Anyone who says 'this will happen' with confidence has completely failed to learn the lessons of history - most of it recent - and deserves the label 'ignorant' for the hubris alone. A big dose of humility would be appropriate for most of the 'experts' here.

The post by Bealzebub on Page 87 (http://www.pprune.org/professional-pilot-training-includes-ground-studies/335548-growing-evidence-upturn-upon-us-87.html#post4668059) is the most cogent, accurate and sober summary of this thread I have seen.

[Grass strip basher]

To be honest I am amazed the weakness of the pound has not got more commentary on this thread. It is 30% more expensive to go anywhere in Europe or the US.... have you been to Europe recently.. £4-5 a pint!! :sad: Even poor old Boris Johnson was moaning about the cost of the Johnson family ski holiday.

I think a significant amount of people will decide to holiday in the UK. I don't understand why everyone thinks "Joe Public WILL always go on his/her week in the sun".... not if they are scared for their job or have already lost it. Anyone care to explain the logic?? What % of Easy and Ryanairs flights are to Euro denominated countries??

My firm has cancelled all non-essential travel and moved all non-intercontinental travel to low cost economy fares. We are one of BAs biggest customers. Also our headcount is down from 33k at its peak to 21k.... and we are still cutting. We are still in a steepening dive in this recession although I think some of the pilots have now worked out how serious our predicament is and started to pull back on the control column..... I reckon we bottom out Q4 2009, Q1 2010...... then I will wager we will have the mother of all inflation problems.... there will no be no more than a handful of pilot jobs around for years and years.

[Reluctant737]

Heh - the problem with all the armchair experts here is you all have WAY too much time on your hands, and as a result read into everything 110%, overcomplicate matters and as a result give off ever such a bitter vibe of sour grapes.

A close friend of mine who is a teacher of Economics now, following a very successful career as head economic advisor to Morrison's during the recession of the early nineties said to me one evening recently, and I quote, "This has been blown far out of proportion. The UK economy needs a couple of years to reattain equilibrium, but 99% of the depression we have is psychological. Consumer confidence. 2010 will bring brighter skies, and in 2011, the sun will be out again. That just leaves us with our always present problems, that always seem worse when a recession is upon us."

He also went on to tell me, "There are methods of control the government have over our domestic economy which aren't publicised. It will never be allowed to reach the oh so often called 'catastrophic proportions' mentioned on the news. People should worry for themselves, but not for the economy. The government is well equipped to look after itself, and part of the scam is forcing people to believe we're in trouble."

That's what a real (and very well connected) Economist has to say, away from the spotlights and cameras.

Take your pick, call bluff, whatever, that's what I've been told.

Ad

[heli_port]

The average price of a house is 16.6 per cent lower than this time last year after a further 1.3 per cent fall in January, according to figures published today by Britain's biggest building society.
The January fall recorded by the Nationwide is lower than the 2.5 per cent slump in value seen last month, but is still well ahead of the fall of 0.4 per cent reported in November.


Annual house prices plunge 16.6 per cent - Times Online (http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article5609748.ece) ;)

[heli_port]

There is going to be an avalanche of talented, bright people coming out of the city back into the "real world".... so competition for jobs will be intense.

lol assuming they have some savings allowing them to train as pilots. I was part of the city for a long time and allot of my colleagues were burdened with debt and those that weren’t were happily spending most of their money on leisurely pursuits (drugs, women etc).

Maybe you will get some but once you're addicted to 'bonus hunting', there is nothing in the world that gives you the same buzz!
Just passed my p1 :8

[Grass strip basher]

Heli-port sorry just to clarify was not a comment aimed at city folk just becoming pilots.

A lot of people in industry should be looking over their shoulders because the competition for their jobs is going to step up (a lot).

Also I see the CEO of Easyjet has apparently sold half of his total holding in the company's shares in the last few days!!! Now that is a vote of confidence in the outlook for this summer.

Last one out please turn off the lights...

P.S. congrats on the P1 Heli_port!

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

At the genesis of this thread's original thread I offered the opinion that there would be a house price crash. And further that the scale of it would approximate to the scale of the recession that would follow.

I stand by that correlation. Todays 1.3% (Nationwide) fall for Dec means that the UK now has the Longest fall, the Sharpest fall and the Deepest fall in house prices recorded. There are also no signs of abatement.

I therefore expect the recession to be the longest, sharpest and deepest recorded.

Its not really complicated but its a simple opinion to explain.

Commentary on the dismal science is filtered through a dizzying cloud of spin and vested interest and is notorious for it. Which is why I think it often pays a better dividend to study modern economic history closely. If the world is still broadly the same as it was the last time X occurred resulting in Y then todays Y may be predicted by looking at todays X..

Unfortunately for Wannabes your career is very closely and critically tied to the economic cycle over which you can have no influence.

WWW

[Alex Whittingham]

"the UK now has the Longest fall, the Sharpest fall and the Deepest fall in house prices recorded"

This is symptomatic of the rubbish peddled as 'facts', I wouldn't mind except it is said with such confidence. Let's check this out by looking at the oft quoted Nationwide figures (http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/indices-nationwide-national-inflation.php). Figures show to the end of 2008.

Longest fall? No. Raw prices fell from the third quarter of 1989 to the second quarter of 1993, three and a half years, and then stayed level-ish for a couple of years. The equivalent figures for this crash show a fall for only a year and a quarter.

Sharpest fall? Possibly, just. There's a 15% drop in 5 quarters to the end of 08. The first 5 quarters of the 1989 crash show a 13% drop. Not a big difference, though.

Deepest fall? No, the 1989 crash shows a 20% drop from peak to trough.

As a moderator, at least get your facts right before you put your 'Mad Max' hat on.

[Canada Goose]

Also I see the CEO of Easyjet has apparently sold half of his total holding in the companies shares in the last few days!!! Now that is a vote of confidence in the outlook for this summer.


Reminds me of when I worked at Nortel in Canada back in 2000, when the then CEO John Roth sold virtually all his stock .......... just before it fell off the cliff edge ! It certainly does pay to keep an eye on what is happening. I only found this all out, like most, after the fact (watching the news weeks later showing aerial shots of his massive house and holdings). Do you think he had some insight into the fact something big was about to happen or was he just very lucky ? ...........Mmmmmmmmmmmm. :hmm:

[Black Knat]

Alex-followed the link ref house prices. Most interesting is average price 1998 around the 65k mark. Average now around £165k.
Given that lending in 1998 was relatively sensible (3x salary etc) then the 1998 prices were reasonable. Taking the 3x salary as a guide (worked fine in the 'old days') then average salary needs to be around 55k, which is definitely not the case in the UK. Add in job losses and I think house prices generally will continue to fall. Much of consumer spending was based on the 'feel good' factor of their house value going up.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Steepest, yes.

Deepest -

Jan 09 is now £150,501 from a peak in July 07 of £193,153. A 22.1% fall. As far as I can see the Nationwide figures for the last crash show a peak in Q3 1989 at £62,782 to a low of £50,168 so showing a 20.1% fall over 3 years.

Longest. Got me there. It isn't. Yet. Although todays Daily Telegraph thinks it is:


UK house prices fall further in January - Telegraph (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/houseprices/4382138/UK-house-prices-fall-further-in-January.html)

UK house prices fall further in January

UK house prices fell for a fifteenth straight month in January - the longest run on record - as the deepening recession in the UK adds further downward pressure on the once booming market. Article continues..



I was thinking about this being a much longer recession than the early 90's (it was just two quarters then). Of course some Government Ministers are already seeing the green shoots of recovery and Margaret Becket the Housing Minister is saying that this is a very good year to buy..



This HPC is harder than the last one Alex. I think you probably agree the broad point.

WWW

[Alex Whittingham]

Fair cop, I didn't include January, I just took the quarterly figures. I think all you can say so far - without quibbling about one or two percent - is that this crash looks very much like the last one except that, at this point in the cycle, the big drop in the last crash had just finished and the rate of fall was starting to reduce whereas this time we seem to be getting a more sustained steep drop.

I think we broadly agree, though, but you have to remember that the indicators from the past can be interpreted in a number of ways. The 1980 crash only shows up if you account for inflation, for instance. If you look at the raw prices they don't fall. Similarly the 1989 crash with inflation adjusted shows a fall, peak to trough, of 37%, nearly twice what we have seen so far.

There's also the issue of cause and effect. Does economic downturn follow house price crash? Is it the other way around or are they simultaneous events? You can theorise, of course, but I don't think you can justifiably draw such firm conclusions.

[Parson]

Apart from new build flats, still waiting for the house price crash to hit Cardiff.

[Reluctant737]

Well obviously we've all decided to take this 'matter' into our own hands.

So when do we storm parliament? Who gets to kill Gordon Brown? (I've got dibs on Prescott and Major).

And most importantly, when we elect ourselves in this freedom of movement, who is going to be the new PM? Preferably somebody who knows what's going on in the world, and not some toff educated at Eton, breezed through Oxbridge, and straight onto the benches having never done a hard days' work in their life.

Any takers?

[Alex Whittingham]

I do see your point and I respect your opinion. I actually agree with most of it but all that makes it is our opinion, it's not a fact. I'm pointing out - again - that facts need to be checked before being presented as truth. As we have seen, you can't even rely on the Telegraph!

[Adios]

I just found this article by George Soros and thought some readers might be interested: FT.com / Comment / Analysis - The game changer (http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/49b1654a-ed60-11dd-bd60-0000779fd2ac.html)

I am no big fan of his, but he does shed light on the role Credit Default Swaps and short selling of Financial Institution stocks played in the rapid burst of the bubble. I also fear his prescription probably presents yet another option for him to rake in billions if it is adopted. Good reading nonetheless though.

[RVR800]

I want to buy an FTSE 100 Tracker Investment Portfolio -
To the 'experts' : Are we at the bottom yet?

[Flying Squid]

Topslide.....good post!

A large part of the problem is the MP's themselves.....until they can see beyond their snouts then they won't ever take them out of the £95m trough being provided by the tax payers each year. Regardless of which party you think will be best to sort this mess out, politicians are pigs in a trough and that's been firmly re-enforced by the by this whole expense's and allowances row.

This country is on it's knee's but we're still paying for MP's second homes to be furnished with LCD TV's and £1000 rugs etc. It's a shameful disgrace that this is allowed to go on when every other bugger is struggling to make ends meet and greedy Gordon, together with his pet Darling, continue to systematically piss away what little is left.

Anyway, this isn't a political soapbox for me but it bloody infuriates me when I'm struggling to pay the bills but MP's and other civil servants continue to live the high life at my expense!!! grrrrrrrr :*:*:*

[Rhodes13]

dublin green technology is great but tell me this who is currently buying cars and other big ticket items? Have you not noticed that no can get credit at the moment? Fundamentally no one will but these things when they are worried about losing there job which is a large portion of the population now!

Don't get me started on green tech though - where does all this lovely electricity for our electric cars come from?? Thats right Coal and oil, great green tech that.. but thats another forum and more evidence of ol Gordo and his cronies taxing the living crap out of us al al pax tax. Gotta save those greenie terrorists from working you know!

I understand where you are coming from in hoping it is better than it sounds (I do as well, bills to pay etc) but tell me this, name the airlines recruiting now in large numbers apart from RYR? Most airlines are looking to reduce hours of crew or lay people off -monarch has just let 50 staff go from the front office and engineering, BA offering unpaid leave along with CX and QF, and Virgin imposing pay freezes on staff. The big boys in the gulf and asia have pretty much stopped recruiting as well.

Me personally I'm in the hold pool for two airlines and have been told that nothing till at least the end of the year, and more likely 2010! Not the signs of an upturn is it?

[Reluctant737]

Topslide6,

My apologies, I was unaware we were committed to a sense of humour failure in this topic, I shall change my perspective immediately!

Ad

p.s. Flying Squid, have you only just noticed that? Perhaps you'd be interested to know the only place you may legally smoke indoors now be the Houses of Parliament. Chip on my shoulder I haven't, head out of the sand it is.

[chrisbl]

FWIW, phase one of the financial crisis is past and that was the sub prime issue.
Phase 2 will be the mid prime crisis when good assets turn bad.

[disco87]

Last time i checked we vote for the party not the person, i also know why i'm against fox hunting. Getting rid of Labour is not going to solve anything either and i'm sure the Conservatives would not have a hope in hell of reducing the effect of this recession, they just want to seem to do nothing.

[disco87]

It came from my head, not just a pretty face you know. Although i would be interested in reading wherever you got the idea that Gordon Brown is Communist......sounds like a right laugh.

[Reluctant737]

You got it cap'n :ok:

[chrisbl]

More "good" news

BBC NEWS | Business | 'Unprecedented' fall in air cargo (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7858230.stm)

[dublin_eire]

Rhodes13,

I get what you're saying but I hate the way that when something positive is mentioned on this forum you're seen as some lunny that doesn't get the problems that have arisen. What makes me laugh and makes me want to post on this forum are the people who come out phrases like 'hell on earth' and 'meltdown'. I simply don't think that's going to happen. Things are bad; I know that. But there's a difference between pragmatism and dramatism. Personally, I feel I fall under pragmatism. Laughably, a lot here fall under dramatism!

Btw, to answer your question about big ticket items being bought.... Nobody! Here in Ireland we have the year at the start of our car registration plates. I haven't seen one 09 yet! But, I'd say the first year of a downturn is always the worst.... Confidence will return, eventually...

[Flying Squid]

Reluctant737 - Nope I've known for years of the unprecedented and shameful glutiny of politicians at our expense. However in my lifetime I've never been old enough to appreciate the har****ies of a real economic down turn, let alone one as big as this. At times like these it just makes me realise how bad they all are. When they should all be pulling together to get us out of this mess they're busy squabbling in the house of commons. I watched them yesterday lunchtime and to be honest it made me sick.....all they can do is stand there and take cheap shots at eachother with their smug grins each time they receive appluase from the rest of the house. Meanwhile I was sat there going through the bill's. Nice!

Labour have spent the money, there's none left. No party that come into power can wave a magic wand. Make yourself comfy, we're here for the long term chaps!

[Reluctant737]

I hear that buddy - let us not forget that life is a wonderful thing, and it's truly saddening to see so many people wasting it away worrying about the worlds problems, complaining to one another, always trying to get one up on the other guy...

I have what I consider to be a 'cushy jet job' - many people would not consider it so, but the background I come from dictates my nature in such a way that I can only see it as such.

The truth is, I may switch the news on tomorrow and find out my airline's gone into administration - now if I thought about that all the time, I would worry constantly, and it's for that reason I block off some semblance of reality to the fragile existence that is this career.

But do you know what? I don't care about the economic downturn, it doesn't affect me as I sit here now, it doesn't prevent me from putting food in my plate, taking air into my lungs, nor will it affect my plans to visit my family for the first time in two months next week. And for the time being, I'm still flying people around Europe and getting paid for doing so.

We're only human, and this recession is only the result of what humans higher in the food chain have created for us. What does this constant bicker create? Does it solve our problems? No it does not - we all have to sleep in one big bed, all one can do is make the best of what we do have, and put aside for now what we don't have.

Whatever your problems are, there is always somebody else who has things a hundred times harder - I'm sure there are many people in Gaza as we speak who would happily exchange places with the most hard done by moaner on this website.

So hey, don't worry, be happy.

p.s. Philosophising the world is a general effect alcohol has on me, nothing is intended as being personal :ok:

[Reluctant737]

Flying Squid,

Just to reiterate, I wasn't trying to get one on you in my post above, and I agree with your sentiments above entirely. So they're still at it are they? I haven't watched the 'parliament program' in a few months now, but it sounds pretty similar to what I experienced last time.

Disgusting.

But hey, my career may be cut shorter by something other than an economic recession if I let these problems raise my blood pressure! However, if I don't come across for whatever reason as being able to relate to what you're saying, I assure you sir, I do.

[Flying Squid]

Reluctant737 - Ah I know you weren't having a pop mate. It's just funny how the parliament program shows them for what they really are.

As you say, it's disgusting. However as you also very correctly point out, I'll not be letting it raise the old bloody pressure too much. Hard to sit here paying the bill's and keeping a calm head when I see it though. Morons!

Anyway, I'm off to the gym....the punch bag is getting a pretty raw deal at the moment!lol.

FS :ok:

[Blindside]

"and part of the scam is forcing people to believe we're in trouble"

I think that the situation is incredibly serious, but I am coming to the conclusion that the constant doom and gloom in the media is getting a bit much.

The powers that be need to control us somehow, this is the preferred choice at the moment IMO.

The phrase "war on terror" hasn't been mentioned for months.

[cc2180]

Pretty sure I saw "War on Terror" relating to the training of terrorist birds to fly into engines..... maybe not on the BBC though haha

[R T Jones]

Very true Blindside. Every night I watch the news at 10 and its all doom and gloom. I think confidence of consumers is very much affected by the media and they certainly aren't helping! OK, the economy is not in the best state but the continual talking it down surely can't be helping.

In other negative news I read today Bill Gates predicts the downturn to last for years rather than months. Who knows though, all we hear is prediction after prediction and they seem to change by the day. The only thing we know for sure is economy's can not continue to grow indefinitely, with record growth each year and record profits from companies. It had to stop somehow it's just going from 100 - 0 very quickly!

All we can do is our best, keep things in perspective and trust that things will stabilise, eventually!

[Dane-Ger]

I often wonder about the psychologogical effects of the media.

Being a teacher, we are made aware of the importance having a positive attitude when teaching. This is no different from the medias role in educating us. After all, when it comes to world economics, most of us are students!

I don't doubt there are serious financial problems in the world just now, you would be have to be rather silly to disagree.

It would, however, be interesting to see the short term effects on spending if the media started reporting that things were looking rosy in the garden of economics.

I have to be honest, I have not felt any effects of the recession yet, in fact, I have more money in my hands each month now than I did a year ago, due to falling interest rates.

Before anyone starts, I know that thousands have lost, or are at risk of losing there jobs. But how much of this is affected by consumer confidence rather than a lack of money going round. It seems rather catch 22 to me, less confidence, less spending, less jobs.

I think humans, as a race, are rather prone to the sheep philosophy of comfort in numbers, and right now the flock is heading towards a (necessary) adjusting of spending and more importantly, family values. I have lost count of the number of friends who have started talking about "material purchases are not as important as being together with their friends and family, that's what really matters" they say. The same people two years ago were more concerned with the size of their house ands how many cars sat in the driveway, THAT was status!

Whats the difference? Almost all of these friends have no less money, they are just scared that they are going to lose all their money, where does this come from? the media.

We are in a rather depressing cycle just now, but I do wonder about WWW's rather dark view of a new world order ruled by violence and anarchy, I would have to disagree. To use his own comparisons of WW2, If anyone has had the privilege of speaking with some of the brave soles who lived through this, they will tell you that , in a crisis we know how to come together and work as a collective. Many survivors talk fondly of the sense of community and spirit experienced in those hard, hard times.

I don't doubt, there will be increases in crime rates, some people will always choose to look after themselves at the costs of others, but lets not try and turn this into a "mad max" scenario where the world as we know ends.

So, in conclusion (and to to avoid too much thread creep). This will probably be a long recession, we will adjust our values again and concentrate our efforts on things that don't cost money, our children will actually benefit as we will spend more time with them rather spending more time spending money, the world will continue as normal with a slight increase in crime rates but a significant increase in family and community spirit. We will come out the other side and we will again start spending money we don't have.

And finally, there will be pilot jobs again;)

Regards D-G

[Flying Squid]

Some really good comments here guys. The power of the media is massively underestimated. The grim financial situation that we're in cannot be ignored, but we have to wonder how much of it could have been avoided if the media didn't blow things out of proportion at the first sign of trouble. Take Northern Rock....totally mismanaged and left hanging on the edge.....so, the media come along the next day they have every reporter from here to the moon stood outside a local branch with a camera on a few people withdrawing their money. The day after that there are long queue's of people on the news withdrawing their money....what little working capital the bank had left has now been withdrawn over night and thats them done.

Im not blaming the media entirely for the NR situation, but the attitude and subsequent behaviour of people is often largely influenced by media and sadly it seems that the media are more interested in a good story than the economic welfare of the nation. Very sad.

Isn't it funny how the few strands of good news that exist aren't being reported on. Granted there are very few of them but surely that makes them more newsworthy???

[clear prop!!!]

DG

Thank you.

A well balanced view of life.:D

[R T Jones]

Dane-Ger, an excellent post. I can relate myself with regard to realising what is important in life. Only this morning on a walk back from the gym did I really look at a few basic things I have and realise how lucky I am. Perhaps being a poor student does make you become less materialistic, I certianly appreciate that money and things do not make you happy, relationships with friends and family do. Having a group of people come together to work towards a common goal, the rescue of our economy, is what we need to see. I think there is something to be said for when times are hard people are more likely to rally together for the common good. Of course, not everyone, but remember most people in society are generally good folk. It's a shame that negative stories sell newspapers and that is what gets reported.

I'd usually say that I focus on the negatives, but at the moment thats far too depressing to do! So I'm trying out a new way of thinking, long may it last. Although I may have to stop reading pprune so much, it does tend to be more negative than positive.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

I think the media have and continue to underplay this crisis.

Go back to Sept '07. I was being derided here for saying that I had sold my house because housing was going to crash and there was going to be a mjor recession at least as big as 1991. But this was simply a view taken by numerous economists such as Nuriel Roubini and was a common view on the finance versions of PPRuNe..

Yet at that time the media was full of Slowdown. Dip. Soft Landing. Doom Mongers. Best Placed. Short Recession.

BULL****.

I and many others were looking at the raw data and TELLING people that a Depression was likely and if we were lucky a sharp, deep, decade long recession would be a lucky escape.

People blaming the media for this slump deserve pity. To quote the 16th President of the USA"

You can fool some of the people all of the time, and all of the people some of the time, but you can not fool all of the people all of the time.



WWW



ps That was Abraham Lincoln BTW.

[Dane-Ger]

Is that not the whole point of the argument, The media underplays / overplays the situation, we all follow the merry go round.

When the media underplayed the situation a year ago we still felt pretty good and had x amount of pounds in our pockets, now the media are possibly overreacting, we feel bad but still have the same x amount of pounds in our pockets.

Lincoln was right, you can't fool all of the people all of the time but you only need to fool some of the people some of the time to succeed!

[Sciolistes]

Dane-Ger,

The fundamental problem isn't that the media underplays or overplays, it is that the media doesn't have the foggiest idea what is happening now and attempts to convey the implications for the future in one of three ways: as an open question, results from a survey or in such vague terms a that even a Medium would be impressed.

It seems rather catch 22 to me, less confidence, less spending, less jobs.
Confidence has very little to do with it and is just a way of explaining away something that is tricky to comprehend. However, the lack of money in the system does have everything to do with it.

People spend when they have disposable income. People have disposable income mainly for three reasons: excess earnings, loans or they receive a windfall. People who save, by definition generally don't spend those savings frivolously. It isn't too great a leap to conceive that the majority of disposable income is from excess earnings and debt. It isn't a catch 22 either, the economy is sinusoidal and arguably a divergent phugoid!

In basic terms there is a reducing amount of money because the banks cannot lend because they no longer have the required volume of liquid assets (for reasons not that well explained). Therefore business cannot borrow, therefore they cannot pay people, therefore people cannot earn, therefore they cannot repay their debt, therefore the banks have less money to lend and round it goes until the debt is written off such that the amount of debt is less than the money in the system. It is a known that in a growing economy, the amount of debt plus interest is more than the amount of money available to repay that debt. That being the case only an expanding economy can maintain the status quo. If the economy slows it's rate of growth some kind of downturn is virtually inevitable.

Generally recession plus the following boom is greater than pre-recession economy so people over the decades remain better off overall - the divergent phugoid. It wouldn't bee too great a leap to suggest that recessions are essential tools for long term sustainable growth with well managed booms. But also common sense says nothing is infinite and nobody can comprehend the limits and so nobody can say when we get a recession so deep that takes us back decades rather than just a a year or so.

In a nutshell, the greater the gulf between debt and money available to repay that debt, the deeper and the longer the recession. Nobody really knows the true extent of the problem. The data says that the UK in particular has been artificially sustaining its boom. Regardless, most can guess that there is an awful lot of debt out there...

How people feel about this is irrelevant.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Thank you very much for that. Most well written and accurate.

WWW

[Flying Squid]

"Confidence has very little to do with it"......Total rubbish!

People aren't spending their additional disposable income because they're unsure of what's going to happen in the coming months. It's a viscious downward spiral....people are worried so rather than spending their additional disposable income they build up a little nest egg for a rainy day..... this leads to a lack of working capital and fall in profits on the highstreet.....the media grab the bad news like vultures as another high profile retailer goes tits up or reports a drop in quarterly profits....people see this on the news, lose confidence and think it would be a good idea to save a bit for a rainy day....and the sprial continues downwards.

If confidence had nothing to do with it why would firms like First Choice and Thomas Cook be including the "Protected by ATOL" phrase in all of their adverts now??? Because consumer confidence was seriously knocked by the XL situation. They need to instill this back in their customers to spend on their hols without living in fear that their hard earned money will be lost if the tour operator goes belly up.

I've worked for a retail company and consumer confidence is HUGE! Our industry is massively affected by this in particular. Look at post 9/11.....people lost confidence in the fact that that they would arrive at their destinations safely so they stopped flying. This time they're rightly worried about losing their hard earned dosh.

WWW and SCS have both made some interesting points but I can't accept that consumer confidence has nothing to do with the economy. Just not true.

Have a good weekend all!

FS :ok:

[Blindside]

It may not have been the cause of it, but IMO it certainly exacerbates the problem.

The media need to fill their 24hr schedules so debate and dissect ad nauseum. The media didn't cause the problem, I don't think anyone has said that. The media's need to constantly fill airtime is depressing many people and stopping people who have disposable income from spending it. Now these people may have needed a reality check, but it has got to the point where I no longer want to watch the news etc. I am not burying my head in the sand either.

I went skiing last weekend and there were some big hitters in the group and they felt the same. There comes a time when the media stop reporting on the news and become the news. They need a new story, which may be a war according to some.

I've recently purchased a new car for cash and my house extension started last Tuesday. I am in a minority in that I am spending decent sized money at the moment. I also view this as a fantastic opportunity to invest in selected shares via my SIPP, plus I am long on oil and gold.

Refinancing of existing debt is one thing, but even if credit was available at previous levels, I don't believe that the public has the appetite for taking on more debt at the moment.

It has almost become trendy to be frugal :)

[Boing7117]

How many times have we seen stories in the media about aviation-related issues or incidents - and seen how many times the media have either got it totally wrong, over-sensationalised it, or more importantly, misconstrued key facts of importance?

(I really should source a couple of articles to back up this statement - shouldn't be too hard)

It wouldn't be a bad assumption to believe that this quality of reporting is repeated across all sectors - including financial.

Take the media with a pinch of salt.

[Blindside]

I was going to say the same thing but forgot :)

Peston is being briefed all the time so listening to him is a great way of being prewarned on future GOVT thinking/policy.

Most people in most jobs are fairly mediocre - sweeping generalisation I know but it probably has an element of truth. Can't see why bankers, journalists, economists or politicians should be any different.

[Spectacled Owl]

The majority of people are not educated in debt or money management. It's one of the most important skills you need in life but it's not taught in schools. No wonder some people got into so much debt and mortgaged to the hilt. These unfortunate souls are now learning a very painful and harsh lesson very quickly.

Borrowing limits should have been set more rigidly. How many of us have heard from our credit card companies about our limits being increased without us asking for them?

House prices should have been taken into account years ago when the Bank of England was looking to manage inflation. Calculating inflation based on a basket of groceries was daft when house prices were soaring at rates comparable to inflation in Zimbabwe.:rolleyes:

Part of this recession is a confidence issue in us all. No one can predict a clear way out or how long it will last. But no one predicted us getting into such a mess. At some point things will move on. In the meantime we're lobbing everything at the mortgage to get rid of it so we'll be better of in 6, no 5, now it's 4 years time. Rate cuts have meant the payments have gone through the floor which is a great opportunity to pay off the mortgage early.

So we're not doing what the government wants and splashing out on new things - we're, er, in a strange kind of way helping to refinance a big and stupid Edinburgh based British Bank that has enormous amounts of debt and problems of its own.

[dublin_eire]

Take the media with a pinch of salt.

Completely agree! Remember Madeline? Her family were filmed getting on the Easyjet plane in Portugal, taking off, then landing, press interview(asked for privacy) and then followed home by helicopter all live on Sky News.... It was disgusting, perverted and a sad state of affairs.

I always take a cynical view of what I hear reported and try see through the angles and spins they put on otherwise mundane items.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

In the UK in 2006 £19 BILLION was MEW'd (mortgage equity withdrawel) into the consumer spending economy.

Then house prices started falling so that tap was abruptly turned off.

This caused a recession.


This has happened before. This was predicted to happen again if you read the correct websites and journals. Pretending it is all fantastically complicated and too difficult to understand is just a tactic of the finance industry and the government.


WWW

[Sciolistes]

Flying Squid,

I agree that taking confidence, as a significant driver of the economy, out of the equation does seem to defy common sense. But then so did aiming for the ground during stalls during my first trial flight. I could sidestep and re-define confidence, but I think we agree that in this context we are just talking about our perception of the public's mood. I would argue that that perception is the really media's perception. We have no way of knowing what people think other than those we have regular contact with. All we know is that he's called the Stig, errm I mean that people are not spending. I simply believe that they are not spending because there is less money in the system. You can look at an individual as say he still has his job and his mortgage is lower. But to understand what is going on we must really think simply in the macro terms of money supply. Little else is relevant to understand why the retail and services sectors are suffering.

If confidence had nothing to do with it why would firms like First Choice and Thomas Cook be including the "Protected by ATOL" phrase in all of their adverts now???
Because I think that is about confidence in a specific product. If they put that in their adverts then customers will feel more confident about booking with them rather than somebody who hasn't chosen to advertise as such. I don't think that is overly relevant to confidence vs the recession though.

post 9/11.....people lost confidence in the fact that that they would arrive at their destinations safely so they stopped flying.
An interesting point. The media predicted recession post 9/11 didn't happen. As an aside I just looked up the CAA's statistics for passengers during leading up to and after 9/11 and it appears that people didn't stop flying. However, there was a slowdown in the growth of number of passengers:
1999: 93,407,000
2000: 100,169,000
2001: 100,414,000
2002: 101,448,000
2003: 104,752,000

I concede that clearly the rate of growth slowed considerably which can reasonably be attributed to confidence in flying as they were still spending their money, just elsewhere. Therefore, I don't necessarily agree that the concept of confidence is relevant to the economy as a whole.

people are worried so rather than spending their additional disposable income they build up a little nest egg for a rainy day
My reasoning is that if people behaved liked that then they wouldn't have built up so much debt in the first place.

[Grass strip basher]

Yeah but unfortunately passenger numbers for European airlines as a whole are now shrinking... this recession must be special.

[Flying Squid]

Sciolistes.....

Some good points well made chap.

IMO I think people are building up a little nest egg to fall back on where as they may have not even considered it before and continued plunging themselves into debt, as you rightly point out. However I think the last 6 months has been a real shock to the system. Maybe a big enough shock to change people's behaviour towards disposable dosh altogther. Who knows.

As for the CAA stats regarding pax numbers before and after 9/11.....I too came across these whilst doing some research on the industry before I took the leap and started training. Sorry, my previous comment was a tad unclear, I meant that pax growth stopped growing rather than people stopped flying altogether. I was really surprised when I found those stats initially but less so after considering how important international aviation has become over the last few decades.

Is there really less money in the system...or is there just as much or possibly more than ever but it's not circulating with the fludity that it should be??? I'm no economist and if the top dogs of the economic world can't agree on this then I'm certainly not going to try.

[Alex Whittingham]

No-one posted this so here goes... House Prices up 1.9% in January (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7871614.stm). Yes, I accept that one swallow does not make a summer.

and, as far as the airlines go, Easyjet's January figures (http://www.easyjet.com/en/news/jan_09_passenger_statistics.html) show an increase in passenger numbers but a decline in the load factor and Ryanair's figures (http://www.ryanair.com/site/EN/news.php?yr=09&month=feb&story=pax-en-030209) show yet another two digit growth in passenger numbers with a steady load factor, but lower than Easyjet's.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

I note that most of the major lenders also in the month that Halifax said they went up (Nationwide said they went down) [both use seasonal adjustment] the major lenders decreased their LTV % requirements. All the good products now require AT LEAST a 15% deposit.

That'll be because the banks expect house prices to fall by AT LEAST 15% still. If you're in negative equity then suddenly you've grabbed the gun from them and put it against their head.. Which they like less.


No arguing with the airline figures though. SAS laying off 3,000 staff, BMI breaking their pay agreement, Ryanair banning summer leave, easyJet not recruiting any full time pilots at all etc. etc.

We've only had the early tremours at this point. The main quake comes next winter.


WWW

[Mikehotel152]

The fact remains that Joe Bloggs on Basildon High Street has no interest in macro economics; all he knows is what the Media tells him. His world revolves around what he sees written in The Sun Newspaper. When gets home he finds his wife watching Emmerendersoakdalestreet on the TV. She has become so attuned to the behaviour exhibited on those programmes that her attitudes have morphed into those exhibited by the extreme characters she sees before her. The family sit around the TV and perhaps watch the News. All they see is doom and gloom because that's all the Media care to report. The Bloggs family get depressed and quickly turn over to watch the start of yet another 'Reality' TV Show.

Everything Joe Bloggs and his family see around them is therefore sensationalist; from the newspapers all the way through to the chap on Coronation Street whose banging his daughter's best mate, while conning someone else out of their inheritance, while doing an insurance scam to pay for his crack habit. This is the world of Joe Bloggs...:ugh:

It may sound funny when put like this, but there is far too much truth in this generalisation for my liking. Sure, the people reading this forum generally don't fill into the Joe Bloggs stereotype. But Ladies and Gentleman, we are the minority. Any even we are affected by the prevailing attitude put forward by the Media and Television Companies. Let's face it, how do we know what's going on in the next town, let alone on the other side of the World, or in some random Film Star's closet, unless it is presented to us as 'fact' by the Media? I don't think there's a big conspiracy but it is quite obvious that it has become the norm to exaggerate and sensationalise every aspect of modern life. You cannot convince me that this doesn't colour everyone's opinions and outlook.

And please don't tell me this recession just happened or that I am to blame because I borrowed money to buy a car. It happened because those in Government and in Banking made greedy decisions. The Media, who care deeply about reporting the truth [pause for effect], have told Joe Bloggs that his world is coming to an end. He's got no reason to disbelieve them because it's on every TV channel and in every Newspaper - even The Sun.

I mean, honestly, if we keep being told that house prices are going to fall by another 15%, that's exactly what will happen - so much of what we hear about the economy is a self-fulfilling prophecy! Tell people it's all over and they'll believe you after awhile. But good news is ignored and only bad news is reported. The downward spiral continues...And in the meantime, Joe Bloggs stops spending his money and cancels his holiday...and everything gets worse.

IMHO the only genuine crisis to hit the world economy over the past year was when OPEC decided to turn off the taps and limit oil supply. That had a knock on effect on everyone. But the credit crunch and the house price crash is simply the unveiling of a huge Government-sponsored scam.

:zzz:

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

No. You can't have that.

The argument that the media is causing and perpetuating the crisis is correct. To a point. A small and rather short point.

What is far more important to understand is the unprecedented-in-the-whole-of-human-history debt bubble. It has been built over the last decade. It was unsustainable and its collapse is now upon us. The result of the collapse is a sharp fall in wealth and a sharp rise in unemployment. This change is irreversible because it is a correction.

Politicians and others pretend that it is a problem. Problems can be solved if the correct actions are taken. But this isn't a problem. Its a correction to a debt problem that we already had.

As a rough analogy off the top of my head (therefore unlikely to be a good one) the West is like an alcoholic who has had his vodka taken off him. He is struggling, hunting, to find more as he thinks that the lack of booze is a problem. It isn't. Withdrawal of booze is the solution to the problem of alcoholism. But the drunk finds it painful.

The West is the drunkard and the drug is debt.

The lifestyle enjoyed by many that this debt funded has gone and isn't coming back. There's a few billion hard working Chinese and Indian people, many of whom have excellent educations, who want to buy some of the limited worlds resources. The fat arsed, ignorant and lazy West is going to have to learn to live on less.

All of which aggregates to bad bad news for Western Wannabes and Airline Pilots but good news for Indian and Chinese ones.

How's your Mandarin?


WWW

[JB007]

The beach seems to be Britains cure for the crisis...

TUI Travel Plc (First Choice/Thomson) have reported a 20% increase in all-inclusive packages and despite a "flatter booking profile" (corporate speak for something!) people are still booking holidays and full year trading is expected to meet expectations...

The Balerics, Greece, Turkey, Mexico and Egypt are the popular places...

A charter holiday is costing 11% more than last year with a 10% cut in capacity...

Good for those of us employed but don't expect recruitment just yet...

[Mikehotel152]

What is far more important to understand is the unprecedented-in-the-whole-of-human-history debt bubble. It has been built over the last decade.

...which is not inconsistent with what I have said. The credit crunch, debt bubble and housing crises have all built up over the past decade, giving credence to my suggestion that they are a monster of Government policy.

this isn't a problem. Its a correction to a debt problem that we already had

I agree, but I would prefer it if the Government took some responsibility for following policies that made this inevitable.

[R T Jones]

From my reading, mainly of this thread and of news websites. It seems that WWW's view about it being a correction is fairly accurate, it is fairly obvious that people have been living above their means for a long time. Perhaps once this correction has taken place, people will be better off. Perhaps not richer, but with an idea on what is important in life. Money is nice, but you learn to live with less. Of course this will only last until the memory of this correction is long in the memory and a few greedy people start to think.... maybe instead of the downturn, we should refer to it as a correction. The Great Correction, as opposed to The Great Depression ;)

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

I do hope so. I think there's a chance that some people will stop coveting so many shiny new things and flash lifestyle accoutrements and start to appreciate the simpler, cheaper, better things in life.

Its true that so far the figures for Charter and LoCo seem to be holding up well. BA/BMI scheduled full service seem to be taking the pain but elsewhere things are holding up. This pleases me but I don't think it will last a full year.

WWW


(pleases me that the Charter and LoCo market is holding up - NOT that the Legacy market is suffering)

[Adios]

WWW,

Your post 1862 is spot on. Why can't the politicians get it and tell us this is what's going on?

I cut and pasted it and sent it to a friend whose firm manages what is left of £500 Billion of other people's money. This friend saw the drunken debt party, but didn't see the downfall of financial institutions coming. If experts like this didn't see it, how the heck can politicians hope to have enough sense to get us out of it?

[disco87]

Is it just me or didn't this thrad used to be called Growing evidence the downturn is upon us?

[JohnRayner]

Nope. Different thread. Languishing further down the pages somewhere. This one was started as a bit of a jest initially, but could just as easily now be called "Downturn part deux."

Of course, like all other wannabes, I look forward to sustained postings of all things Upturn. Just not sure when I'll be breaking out the beers :)

[Black Knat]

John-think it may be a while before breaking out the beers but have little doubt that those guys who have the right (and realistic) attitude will eventually get the jobs they want. I think the key is to be able to patiently hang in there while others fall by the wayside. Best regards, BK

[oneinthemirror]

John,

the expiry date on those beers will have well and truly passed by then, you might as well just drink them now. you can always buy more...:ok:

[JohnRayner]

Quite...

Beers have a shelf life. Half decent plonk or booze, kept well, lasts a bit longer.

I might start an "upturn" cellar...:hmm:

Regards.

JR

[wilky]

300 new planes on order!

Aerospace Notebook: 'All-Boeing' Ryanair considering Airbus order (http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/business/398617_air04.html)

[v6g]

I saw something this weekend that I've never seen before. A container ship leaving Vancouver harbour only 20-30% full.

Vancouver harbour reportedly moves more freight than all the other west coast ports combined. Now, I know next to nothing about shipping, but I've never seen a ship sailing under the Lions Gate bridge with so few containers.

On another topic, the negative amortization mortgages which I mentioned a couple of months ago seem to be starting to rear their ugly head:

[Rugbyears]

There is no fundamental argument which stands up and challenges the notion of this present economic crises being in its simplest form, a ‘credit correction’. Nevertheless, I remain confident that we will witness a shift in economic climate during the latter end of this year 2009. I certainly expect Mortgage providers to loosen up capital to solid buyers, which in turn will improve national perception, thus increasing public confidence - Furthermore, I would argue a further 5-10% reduction in house price will see house prices achieve there lowest point before gradually improving - at the most, over the next 5 years I forecast a 7-10% increase. I suspect, the latter end of 2010 is where we would hope to feel the effects of the mild turn around.

[helimutt]

Glad to see one optimist. Don't agree with you one iota though.

[Mig21F]

Hey Daria-ox
Thats exactly my plan:ok:. Good luck.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

The long run post WW2 average for house prices to earnings is 3.7 With the current 18% crash we're still at 5.

So what you have to ask yourself is do you think prices will return to the long term average, dip below or bottom above?

Hard as it is I have to think they'll dip below. Which means something like 3.5 which means the falls are not even half way through yet. This belief is perhaps reflected in the banks now only offering non-penalty rate mortgages on deals where the loan is equal or less than 75% of the properties value. They are factoring in another 25% fall.

It is only when one understands what has been typical over the last - say - 30 years that one can judge what normal looks like and what a recovery would resemble.

In the US the Case-Shiller continues to fall and fall hard. They entered their crash a full year before we did. I would not be suprised if our current 18% fall continued to 40% - 50%. A level that even uber-Bears like myself were not publicly talking about at the start of this crisis.

The whole of the Japanese economy is shrinking at over 9% per annum. Without doubt dozens of major airlines will be bust within a year.


WWW

[chrisbl]

I certainly expect Mortgage providers to loosen up capital to solid buyers, which in turn will improve national perception,

Mortgage providers are already lending to solid customers with low loan to value. It is doing nothing in terms of changing perception because above 75% loan to value, the definition of a solid buyer changes.

House prices will continue to fall loans will be difficult to find. The spread will increase.

15 months ago I got a personal loan for 7.9% when base rate was 5.5%
Today you can get for about 8.9% from the same provider with base rates at 1%. Thats a provider that did not :mad: up as well.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

It begins.


Ryanair to cut 200 jobs at Dublin Airport - The Irish Times - Thu, Feb 12, 2009 (http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2009/0212/breaking41.htm)


Ryanair said today it is to cut back its summer schedule, trim its Dublin fleet from 22 to 18 aircraft and shed 200 pilots, cabin crew and engineers. It predicted Dublin traffic will fall by 20 per cent from 10.8 million passengers to 8.7 million over the next year. The airline said it will announce further cuts in its Dublin winter schedule later.



WWW

[leeds 65]

In fairness,the media LOVE THE HYPE thats why they sell newspapers and generate profits.cue 'SKY' no doubt to use the word 'AXE' every 5 mins!!

'AXE' sounds better then 'MOVED'.I presume These jobs arent gone as in redundancies.Much like shannon downsize these pilots,cabin crew and engineers will be springled around the other bases in europe,probably the new Italian ones.Yes its a pain in the hole to relocate if you have a family etc but i would guess they all still have jobs if willing to move

[EK4457]

WWW - bad news indeed.

Out of interest, does this not make a mockery of the FR selection process which is running full pelt in EMA?

Holding pool my arse.......

EK

[leeds 65]

Once again these jobs are not GONE - just MOVED

Holding Pool i would say is valid

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Just apparently been announced 600 redundancies pilots, cabin crew, airport staff and engineers at Virgin Atlantic.

WWW


:(


Link now available:

Virgin Atlantic to cut up to 600 jobs - Telegraph (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/transport/4601462/Virgin-Atlantic-to-cut-up-to-600-jobs.html)

[quant]

Ryanair, virgin who's next to cut jobs? BA?

:sad:

[paco]

If it means anything, at least 30 houses have sold in the Troon area in scotland over the past 4 days.

There are a lot more sold signs up in Horsham as well

Phil

[disco87]

I'm really don't know...what can you say about that?

(that's a genuine question, although it seems sarcastic, but it's not)

[student88]

Honestly, what can you say about that?!

That the recession has probably taught them nothing and that there's always someone out there willing to buy a dead donkey.

[disco87]

Ahhh I got that, I thought it was about the bank coming on board

[Lurking123]

WWW, up to 600 at Virgin. Let's not skew the facts. :=

That said, a friend at VS who is a 340 FO is serious concerned about his job.

[Reluctant737]

<edit>

Did you really *need* to use that language? If you can't express yourself politely - then you don't get to express yourself at all.

</edit>

<edit by R737>

I still think it's b******t :p My apologies - however, going back to the original topic, it's not really axeing 200 jobs when offers will be made to those who wish to continue working at other bases. Fairly routine in an airline one would say...

</edit by R737>

[no sponsor]

CTCs irresponsibility beggars belief.

[Bealzebub]

Does it?

Who are they being irresponsible to? The staff they need to pay wages to? The banks they need to repay? The shareholders who seek a return on their investment? The landlords who they lease premises from? The suppliers who furnish their constituent products?

They are a business looking to survive in very difficult times. They are not offering these secured loans, they are affiliating their marketing to the possible availibility of these loans. It is up to the customer (and obviously the bank) to decide if these loans are right for them. The customers are adults and having (unusually) been tested, have displayed at the very least, average intelligence. As such it is up to them to make adult decisions and as such that is where the responsibility ultimately rests.

Like any business, a flying school can only sell its products to somebody with the ability to pay for them. If you don't have the money, they are happy to point you towards people who will lend it to you on whatever terms that lender stipulates. That risk then falls to the borrower, and the seller secures a sale. That is what house builders do, car dealers do, furniture retailers, department stores, travel agents, private hospitals, dentists, lawyers, private schools, and almost everybody else with an interest in your wallet.

Does that "irresponsibility begger belief"? Well perhaps it does, but it is the way of the world, and the responsibility, or lack of it, falls squarely on the buyers shoulders.
Caveat emptor!

[I like planes & stuf]

Fair point Bealzebub.

If these people aspire to make it to the LHS of a shiny tube at some point, they should be able to demonstrate at least an ounce of decision making at the start of their career.

[R T Jones]

BBC NEWS | Business | KFC to create 9,000 new UK jobs (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7892240.stm)

hooray, all our job fears are over. Sorry, I couldn't resist!

[Rugbyears]

Unfortunately there appears to be a persistent degree of negative postings throughout this thread, sadly such post merely reflect the present economic climate. However, I still retain a small bud of optimism. I sincerely feel this present economic crisis (correction) is not simply an altogether bad time for wannabes. Yes of course, I would be foolish to advise most, if not all to enrol on Oxfords latest integrated programme. Nevertheless, the notion of using the following 12 months or so to embark on completing the study of ATPL material via distance learning programme as a good option. This ensures the student time to budget their training appropriately to their finances, if not present an opportunity to indulge in part-time employment if absolutely necessary. I feel those of you presently studying for you examinations, try and remain focused as upon you training eventuating you may well be in a prime position. Nevertheless, I maintain those of you embarking on commercial flying as a career do so knowing the full extent of the situation. Remember, once you are qualified, you will most probably find yourself competing for positions with very experienced pilots. Unfortunately, those newly qualified pilots over the age of 30 will find it difficult, sadly, at 32, I am one of those; I am trusting on a strong university background and what we oldies term ‘life experience’ to negotiate the obligatory interview.

Like all cycles, things will recover; unfortunately, few appreciate the time scale required. I remain positive and feel we will begin a small turnaround by the end of this year, although as industry it may be 2012 before we feel this turn around. That said, I regularly revaluate and shift opinions appropriately

As I’ve stated on several occasions, I do not, nor possess having a thorough understanding of this plight, as the likes of the well conversed WWW, therefore, I suggest all wannabes take heed of his advice. Certainly, if you choose not to agree, please don’t be foolish enough to not question!


NB.... I may apply for one of those KFC positions...!!

[quant]

Unfortunately, those newly qualified pilots over the age of 30 will find it difficult, sadly, at 32,

Great post rugby, but i dont' agree with you at all on this point. Why do you think the above is true?

:p

[Rugbyears]

It most probable that statement is my own insecurity, even self dread as I am 32 years of age. A consequence of the present economic crises will be numerous experienced pilots seeking employment, coupled with the fresher 22-26 year old. This agent alone will make things exceeding difficult, certainly NOT impossible for most over the age of 30. I’ve articulated this sentiment, as it has become apparent by most offering opinions on PPRUNE, which suggest I may well be too late, regardless of two degrees as well as post graduate of a leading university. I can assure you I wont be throwing in the towel, I will however, assess each stage of my training and proceed appropriately when the time necessitates. Presently, I still have most of the ATPLs remaining so wish me good luck! :)

[quant]

I'm of a similar age and although i see your point i'm just going to go for it. I've dreamed of this for ages and i feel it's now or never. I'm timing my training to concide with what i perceive to be the upturn in the market using my own financial models. I dare not share them incase i'm wrong :O

The competition is going to be tough but i'm hoping my life experience will get me there ;)

Good luck Rugby!

[Rugbyears]

As with most agents of want, those that maintain an inner desire as well as persistence will eventually attain, sadly cost may seriously impede this particular path way for most. Nevertheless, I for one feel intelligent enough to use my personal judgment as to the level of finical commitment I am able to apply at anyone time. Like most things apparent in life, all that is required is a level of common sense!

Best of luck…. ! :ok::)


WWW my dear chap, what would be your advice to a 32 year old mid ATPL studies..? As you will note from my posts, I sincerely respect your words of wisdom / advice. Thanks:ok:

[tigermagicjohn]

There is no common sense in this business!

Alitalia on the brink.
Virgin to axe 600.
SAS to axe 3000.

That is maybe the reason for "negative" tone in this thread.

I see many instructors resigned to have to wait 12 - 24 months to even get a sniff of a job.

However in all this negativity I know of at least one company hiring, Wideroe newly had tests for hiring!

Myself I am at 39, and heading against all advice - trying to get trough my ATPL's and CPL/IR.

So I guess we just have to take the good with the bad, cross our fingers, and hope in the end we will get some tailwind, so the recession can end early.

I also believe there are jobs, if you are mobile and can get together money for TR. I know this is moraliy wrong and all, but having spoken to one very experienced pilot at SAS, he told me of people who paid their own TR, and was now flying in the middle east, asia and africa.

And the SAS captain, did not discourage me from pursuing this long and difficult path, altough he admitted it was much less financially rewarding then it was 20 years ago!

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

BMIBaby have made pilots redundant this month and Singapore Airlines has announced plans to send 17% of its fleet to the desert (they have aprox 2,200 pilots).

Its coming at the UK like a freight train - we will see the collapse of UK airlines and EU wide there will be dozens that will go under in the next 18 months.

This is a therefore a terrible terrible time to be a job hunting wannabe pilot. No two ways about it. I can't advocate anybody at any stage of life contemplating any training path to Wannabeism right now. This is not a dip, nor a slow down nor a plain boring old recession. This is either a severe recession or a depression. The breakneck expansion bubble of the airline industry that started in over a decade ago is going to come to a shuddering halt and then reverse.


I'm buying Gold in a Swiss vault. Its conceivably that bad.


WWW

[The Deec]

Just to add a bit of humour, we're goin to need a lot of giant american freezers to store all those frozen ATPL'S !!

Birds eye would make a fortune! :)

[Nearly There]

Likewise WWW, BullionVault is my new friend;)

[Reluctant737]

I find it amazing that people appear to talk about the economy in a similar fashion to the weather - that it happens, and is unpredictable in the long term...

Pathetic really, we 'created' the worldwide economy, therefore it is within our power to control it.

As eccentric a statement as that is, through a global coordination across all sectors, it is THEORETICALLY possible to reverse this - all that would be left is the damage caused thus far.

We really do have a nest of boneheads running this planet...

[Nearly There]

And how in theory is that possible?
Sorry I cant see it.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Rumbled - BullionVault has been my backstop for a while now.

Ambrose has called each stage of this crisis and called it early - its a bit scary but its mostly all accurate. Not for the feint hearted:


Failure to save East Europe will lead to worldwide meltdown - Telegraph (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/4623525/Failure-to-save-East-Europe-will-lead-to-worldwide-meltdown.html)


Europe is already in deeper trouble than the ECB or EU leaders ever expected. Germany contracted at an annual rate of 8.4pc in the fourth quarter.

If Deutsche Bank is correct, the economy will have shrunk by nearly 9pc before the end of this year. This is the sort of level that stokes popular revolt.

The implications are obvious. Berlin is not going to rescue Ireland, Spain, Greece and Portugal as the collapse of their credit bubbles leads to rising defaults, or rescue Italy by accepting plans for EU "union bonds" should the debt markets take fright at the rocketing trajectory of Italy's public debt (hitting 112pc of GDP next year, just revised up from 101pc – big change), or rescue Austria from its Habsburg adventurism.

So we watch and wait as the lethal brush fires move closer.

If one spark jumps across the eurozone line, we will have global systemic crisis within days. Are the firemen ready?



Protect yourselves.


WWW

[Reluctant737]

Darwinism at its best.

Let them fail - unfortunately we must learn from our mistakes, and if the powers that be refuse to take the necessary steps to alleviate this crisis, there is no other option than to let those destined to the grave, fall.

Sorry, but nobody saw this coming? This recession (depression?) will only have a beneficial effect on the future world - those selfish enough to indulge at other peoples' expense for all these years will soon pay the penalty for their crimes against the people.

Their fairytale is about to come to a gloriously shattering end.

Good riddance.

[Rugbyears]

"those selfish enough to indulge at other peoples' expense for all these years will soon pay the penalty for their crimes against the people"

Reluctant737 - A rather sweeping statement, one I do not agree with at all!

[Reluctant737]

Rugbyears -

Well judging by your username, we can agree on one thing I think, good man, happiest years of my life etc :ok:

Please don't read into what I put too much - I share similar morals to most decent people, and I refer to those who deserve exactly what they get through being downright reckless.

I refer not to those trying to make an honest living out of an honest business. My sympathies go to those who have lost in recent times.

I think we know primarily to whom I direct my anger, especially within the UK. Or rather, what group of people.

Cheers, Ad

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Rugbyears - that's a tough place you are at being someway through training ATPL studies.

Thankfully you've not yet done anything that has an expensive shelf life like a Multi or IR.

Stop.

Stop.

Stop.


Go back to whatever it is that makes you money and do that. Don't go flying. There's no jobs. End of.


Actually thats not true.

There are jobs and there will be loads more of them. They will involve being selected and managed by some training organisation. You will be placed in a company flying an attractive jet for the 6 months of summer. You will be paid a nominal sum and thank yourself that you are sort of being paid to fly - albeit a temporary pittance.

Then in the Winter you will be cast out to starve under the weight of your bank debt.




Its not an enticing picture is it?


WWW

[Reluctant737]

WWW -

A dismal view, but very accurate. I must add, however - here at RYR, if you, as a cadet, have the means to fund a TR, for goodness sake get on board as soon as possible. We are possibly best placed to ride out this recession than any other airline, and ultimately, it will be the locos and the monopolies that see this storm through. As WWW quite rightly said, those in between will wither away into nothingness.

Plus, in our little world, it is still very improbable that you will be made redundant over the Winter - as the recession hits harder, those that need to fly will choose the cheapest fares (and guess who that is).

And I'm not sure who began spouting all these rumours about pilots being laid off after 500 hours, but it is categorically untrue.

All the best, Ad

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

CTC flexiwings. Circa 500 summer hours then bye bye and thanks for the memories.

I'm not being dismal. I'm just being informed and accurate. The Govenor of the Bank of England (FFSK) has just said:


Mr King admitted last week that the UK was already in a deep recession. His forecast — that economic growth would fall by 4 per cent during 2009 — would amount to the most severe peacetime recession since 1931


And still there are people fretting that their CV will portray them as too old when they qualify to apply to airlines for a first job...

ZOMBIE ARMY!


Unstoppable.



WWW

[Reluctant737]

Thanks for that WWW,

The image of thousands upon thousands of people of all ages, sexes and races has just manifested itself in my delicate mind! All waving a blue book in one hand and a written, stamped cheque in the other.

On the other side of the wall, within the headquarters, a shadowy figure slowly raises the gun to his head.

Hehe, thanks :ok:

[Reluctant737]

And just to reiterate, wasn't aimed at you - just generally, a bit of a dismal view, but indeed accurate.

Oh dear, perhaps everyone will wake up tomorrow and realise it was just a bad dream :p

Ad

[fastjetpilot]

WWW where do you get this crap from. I've been reading your posts for a good couple of years and all you do is spout bollocks. I'd be interested to know where you got the terms and conditions of the flexicrew agreement from since the cadets at CTC only got a brief introduction to the scheme yesterday. And it's a lot more positive than you're making it out to be. If you would be so kind as to elaborate where these jobs that make you money are please, I have been looking for a while and I think you'll find it's not just airlines that are struggling, all industries are, there are few jobs everywhere. So might as well do something you enjoy and something you can continue to do through this downturn.

In the meantime stop spreading lies about something you know absolutely nothing about.

[99jolegg]

CTC flexiwings. Circa 500 summer hours then bye bye and thanks for the memories.

I'm not being dismal. I'm just being informed and accurate.

Not exactly, the terms are quite a bit more favourable than that and it certainly isn't payment for 6 months then nothing else until the next summer...

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

fastjetpilot - strong words. Care to share how its been presented to you as a cadet?

I agree there are few jobs anywhere but if you already have experience in a career, possibly still a position, and that job doesn't have a clutch of qualifications that expensively expire every year - then I recommend taking shelter there.

For many such as yourself its too late and you're too far in and it looks like Flexi is the only game in town so I hope it works well for you. There will certainly be plenty of others on the outside of the scheme wishing they were on the inside.

WWW

[Grass strip basher]

fastjetpilot.... you sound stressed old chap.... job market not what was promised to you by the shiney FTO who's course you signed up to? :ooh:

How does the CTC-Flexiwings scheme pay stack up in terms of absolute amounts and job security relative the 60k+ of debt CTC' students will have racked up??

Its a serious question.... if you have the answers please do let us know... we are all ears are are keen to know what a great deal this is....

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

£1,000 a month plus something like £14 * 46 sectors = £644

So £1,644 * 6 months = £9,864 pa

Minus (a small amount of) income tax on the sector pay, living expenses and finance repayments.


Welcome to Breadline Britain.


Looks like the only game in town and the logbook will look seriously better at the end of the exercise. I feel desperately sorry that so many hard working, high calibre, go-getting people find themselves confronted with this. In times gone by - not so long ago - you would have had the world at your feet.

WWW

[Grass strip basher]

... less of course the repayments on your loan.... better hope you are based somewhere near mum and dads house because you will struggle to find somewhere to rent + run a car + pay living expenses..... or I guess you could buy a tent and pitch it in the airport car park.....

Reminds me of that sketch.... "In ma day we used to live in t' carboard box in t'middle of central reservation of motorway".... :uhoh:

[expedite08]

Fastjetpilot.

A bold post by yourself I must say. I will credit you that all industries are suffereing at the moment, but there are those that will train you and pay for your development and give you half decent career progression and support! And then there is aviation..... Ill be all day typing this one up so Ill let you decide...

[no sponsor]

I think you are trying to say that this is not the career that many think it is, and is certainly not the career it was even 5 years ago. Experience counts for nothing.

Where else do you get hundreds of hugely experienced pilots being overlooked by those with minimal experience, the difference being only that one costs nothing to employ and pays for their TRs?

[quant]

I came across this story on the times website - good or bad thing?

Concerns grew today that the recession could push Britain’s economy into the grip of deflation as a key gauge of price pressures showed annual inflation tumbling to the lowest rate since 1960.

Deflation nears as living costs hit 49-year low - Times Online (http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article5750719.ece)

http://www.mysmiley.net/imgs/smile/confused/confused0031.gif (http://www.mysmiley.net/freesmiley.php?smiley=confused/confused0031.gif)

[SilveR5]

Now I have couple of questions guys

First, how do you see the future of aviation business in the middle east? any clue?
Some opinions say that airline companies in this particular area of the world will be less hurt by the economic meltdown. I don't know if this is really true.

Second, how soon do you think the business will pick up again?
I am expecting to get my licence by mid of 2010. I hope things will be better by that time!!


Thanks

[belleh]

I came across this story on the times website - good or bad thing?

Good thing for a fraction of time, followed swiftly by it becoming a bad thing as it further freezes cash flow. Don't buy that tv now when it looks like it might be cheaper next week * whole economy == A Bad Thing.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Debt Deflation will not be allowed to happen. It means the rich get poorer as they don't have any whilst the poor have loads. Anything - up to and including major war - will be used to return to the status quo = inflation.

Unfortunately they'll overcook it and we'll see hyperinflation at some point on the other side of this crisis. Hence buy non-fiat assets. Swiss gold looks good to me.

WWW

[Nearly There]

Gold is a safe bet, also scalping crude on AVAFX is nice little earner if you have the time...which I have:ok:

[alkatifa]

WWW you're right on the money! Inflation will soon kick in both in US and europe, you can count on it. Lets just hope we don't see hyperinflation, as I am deeply concerned about US for that matter.

Go gold and/or silver!

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Firstly I am not a cadet, and do not owe £60k+. I do not know how you came to that conclusion. Probably the same place your "informed" knowledge comes from.


Snippy.

Anyway, sorry for the rant, I'm not going to continue down this path as it leads absolutely nowhere. I am also not about to publish the T&Cs of the flexicrew agreement on a public forum, especially since they are still in discussion.


Ummm, its not really a secret you know. The plan for the use of Flexi cadets has been pdf'd and emailed to thousands of staff in several airlines for one thing.

I'm not sure where you plucked that £1000 a month from, then for the next poster to say the bond payment also has to come out of that is a little far fetched.

CTC will be paying flexi cadets £1,000 a month subsistence allowance tax free. The airline will pay the cadet sector pay which is taxed at normal rates. That's not plucked from anywhere. This is in the first six months of the cadetship for which read: summer.

Pay for a cadet entering easyjet is a rather modest £28k. You pay none of this towards your loan, this is a cadet salary and your loan payments are paid by the airline to APL as an extra on top of your salary. You DO have to pay about £200 a month extra to cover interest etc but this is easily covered by your sector pay. During your line training for 6 months you do get £1000 a month interest free but again, most cadets should finish line training before they are even due to start repaying their loan.


Thats when you get a full time contract. That's not the six months of summer spent as a flexi cadet. Hello winter - goodbye flexi cadet.

The flexicrew agreement has been designed to allow cadets, who have not been offered a contract at the end of LT, to continue to build hours as well as be able to repay their loan. Do you honestly think CTC would create such a plan if it meant their own cadets would not be able to repay their loan? That would spell the end for CTC with almost immediate effect. I can tell you that the agreement so far "implies" that cadets will be staying with easyjet whilst on flexicrew and get guaranteed income and days work. I'd rather not say how much or how many.

Imply whatever you want but all new Captains promoted in easyJet will be full time in the summer, part time in the winter and the missing summer FO's are flexi cadets..


In one way you do actually make me smile, but mainly because you remind me of the guy from Dad's Army - "Don't panic! Don't panic Mr Mannering!!"


Again, you misunderstand. For over 18 months now I have been shouting "Do Panic! Do Panic!" because I had an accurate mental model of how the economy and the airline industry and the monetary system was going to cave in. A view that until six months ago people were still laughing at.

All around you are composed and know there are sacrifices to be made, yet you still want to incite this panic in people as though the world is going to end.



Since 1971 the world has run an experiment in Fiat currency linked to nothing. This unstable model is now collapsing. It is perfectly arguable to contend that the world is ending as we have known it.


nt; as you were.


Aye, you too.


WWW



Bankers by virtue of their privileged position at the spigots of credit have over the years garnered for themselves a disproportionate slice of the world’s wealth. The best description of their wealth is from a banker himself, Sir Josiah Stamp, at the time in1927 the 2nd richest man in England and former head of The Bank of England:

Banking was conceived in iniquity and was born in sin. The bankers own the earth. Take it away from them, but leave them the power to create money, and with the flick of the pen they will create enough deposits to buy it back again. However, take it away from them, and all the great fortunes like mine will disappear and they ought to disappear, for this would be a happier and better world to live in. But, if you wish to remain the slaves of bankers and pay the cost of your own slavery, let them continue to create money.

[jb5000]

WWW,

Just for reference the proposed terms for the new 'flexi-crew' are significantly better once you have done the £1k a month (plus sector pay) for six months.

The standard terms for the HSBC loan repayment would be that the repayments would start after this 6 month period.

The only rub would be if there were no requirements for any flexicrew or full time FOs once the 6 months would be up, but who knows what might happen with the new optimising software.

jb

[Grass strip basher]

"The only rub would be if there were no requirements for any flexicrew or full time FOs once the 6 months would be up, but who knows what might happen with the new optimising software."

Surely that is the problem... creates flexibility for Easy at the cadets expense/security... must be nice to know you may well be dropped like a sack of s**t by the company just as those big loan repayments kick in.

But hey sounds like a fantastic deal.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

What on earth makes you think after six months you'd be kept on rather than replaced by the next batch willing to work for sector pay only?

Sure. There will be a requirement to replace the odd person who has lost their medical, life or who has retired. Having a period of flexi wings on your CV might put you at the top of the application pile for sure.

But there is no job at the end of the 6 month of summer. Implied, hoped-for or otherwise.


This is summer-only work experience..


WWW

[BitMoreRightRudder]

but who knows what might happen with the new optimising software.


I hear it isn't looking good for the much vaunted roll-out by april or may or whenever, so the number of F/Os required will be higher than first thought. Lets hope this is the case.

[quant]

Hyperinflation is to inflation what depression is to recession: the same only much worse. Opinion divides as to textbook definitions: but inflation that runs at 10 per cent or more a month, or 100 per cent or more a year, is hyperinflation. When inflation gets really bad it destroys faith in currencies, and when faith in currencies dissolves, economic activity goes down the drain. Money helps trade, and helps build complex - hopefully civilised - societies. Without money, civilised societies are weakened, and inefficient bartering takes the place of more advanced, better, forms of life-enhancing trade.

Robert Cole's Recessionsaurus - Times Online (http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article5753844.ece)


Unfortunately they'll overcook it and we'll see hyperinflation at some point

I hope you're wrong WWW http://www.mysmiley.net/imgs/smile/winking/winking0071.gif (http://www.mysmiley.net/freesmiley.php?smiley=winking/winking0071.gif)

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Me?

>10,000hrs. A319. Captain. ex-CPL Multi & IR instructor. Integrated & Modular. Age 34.


Motivation - Wannabeism exposed as it actually is.



WWW

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Bye then.


WWW

[Rugbyears]

>10,000hrs. A319. Captain. ex-CPL Multi & IR instructor. Integrated & Modular. Age 34.

At the age of 32, merely accomplished at reading ATPL literature - or dear, I feel rather unwell!!!:sad:

WWW, I would kindly welcome a rethink of your age, I would happily accept 44.:ok:

[Grass strip basher]

Nearly 15 yrs spent analysing banks and the banking sector in the City (averaging 70hrs a week... I know very dull.... but in demand at present).

Got to stage where had ATPLs exams done and then put rest of flying training on hold for time being... because day job made it obvious what a sh8t show this was going to be for pilot recruitment. :{

Current flying for fun with several hundred hours... have owned shares in various light aircraft.... am only generation of family who hasn't (so far) been a professional pilot (old man BA, Grandad RAF, mum hostie etc etc).

Am I a failed wanabee.... hmmm not yet (how do you define "failed").... am I spreading doom.... yes.... because that is what the world is going to be like for next couple of years. :sad:

[quant]

WWW, I would kindly welcome a rethink of your age, I would happily accept 44.http://static.pprune.org/images/smilies/thumbs.gif

I second that!

<object width="480" height="295"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/GlMWTxtsP_4&hl=en&fs=1"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/GlMWTxtsP_4&hl=en&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="480" height="295"></embed></object>

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

My boss in Jerez was a Nimrod Captain in charge of nuclear equipped torpedos at the age of 24. There is ALWAYS someone who has done more, better, earlier, younger than you have.


WWW

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

fastjetpilot seems to have deleted his posts and slipped harbour.

Which screws up the context somewhat. Hey ho.


WWW

[JB007]

Ha ha...cheeky Topslide but funny! Funniest thing i've read since I lost my EICAS and triple everything with this so*ding B737!!!!!!

[waco]

..............knowing JB.......................
he would be having a giggle .................

[waco]

JB...................you did'nt look a day older............
....................................25 years.....maybe ................:ok:

[JB007]

Well you blo*dy did!!!!! Pleasure to see you mate, PM sent!

[Grass strip basher]

This should help answer the "debate" on here about what is happening with passenger numbers... very grim reading... the cargo numbers are frankly terrifying... Economic Gloom Continues in January Traffic (http://www.iata.org/pressroom/pr/2009-02-26-01.htm)

:eek::sad::oh:

[Alex Whittingham]

You've got to be so careful with stats, haven't you? Most Low Costs, including Ryanair, Jet2 and Easyjet are not IATA members and their traffic doesn't appear in the report.

IATA Members List (http://www.iata.org/membership/airline_members_list.htm)

[A and C]

As usual the goings on in the low service sector (or low cost as they brand of themselfs) is hidden in the fact that they don't show in the IATA numbers.

From my viewpoint I see both RYR & EZY with real problems, RYR are going to suffer from people at the lower end of the income scale not flying offset by the people with the money trying them (but just the once!).

EZY have another problem in that Aer Lingus are moving in to LGW using a lo cost model.

I hope that EZY can keep going as they do offer a value for money service unlike the other lot who just regard the customers as cattle.

What this has to do with flight trainning is that soon will be the time to get trainning, watch the commoditys market for hardening prices as this is likely to be the first indication of the economic upturn and a time when a good deal can be had on flight trainning.

[Grass strip basher]

Looks like a pretty long list and the most repesentative figures I could find but interesting point on the locos.
Easy Jan numbers like for like (i.e ex-GB acquisition) were down 3-4%.... not a bad effort.

I agree Ryanairs numbers are impressive, load factor steady at 81% on rolling 12 month basis and steady at 69% yoy in Jan. Will be interesting to see how long it lasts. What a wonderful world for wannabee pilots if all airlines evolve to look like Ryanair. Are they still recruiting?

Do locos carry much cargo?? :confused:

[bucko]

According to RYR's website, they don't carry cargo.

[jb5000]

EZY have another problem in that Aer Lingus are moving in to LGW using a lo cost model.

Personally I would be more concerned for Aer Lingus, seems like a fairly strange decision in these times to take on EZY in Gatwick.

EZY are starting the same routes on the same dates as Aer Lingus, I suppose in an attempt to force them out before they've really got started. A strategy that RYR used well with EZY on the Dublin/Shannon/Cork/Knock routes of several years back.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

The only stat you really need is the share price. The markets unspun view of each companies future profitability is there for all to see.



http://ichart.europe.yahoo.com/c/2y/b/bay.l


http://ichart.europe.yahoo.com/c/2y/e/ezy


http://ichart.europe.yahoo.com/c/2y/a/aerl.l





When those numbers start ticking up then the market is providing a proxy signal to Wannabes to enter training.

The darkest hour in terms of the economy, recession and airline failures has not yet been seen.


WWW

[EZYramper]

Any idea when it will be??

[quant]

The darkest hour in terms of the economy, recession and airline failures has not yet been seen.

When in your humble opinion will that be?

;)

[jb5000]

WWW, out of interest - how do you think Aer Lingus will do in Gatwick?

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Alt-A default, Eastern Europe in the hands of the IMF, revolution in China and the break up of the Euro - THEN - we might be coming out of the other side of this as long as Iran hasn't started detonating atom bombs.

Give it 18 months.

I've no idea how Lingus will do at Gatwick but I wouldn't want to be heavily exposed to the US or Irish market and be trying to open new bases. Good luck to 'em.

WWW

[Alex Whittingham]

Oh dear, of course you have chosen the market peak to make the situation look as bleak as possible. It's a bit hard to call that an 'unspun view', don't you think? Put Easyjet (http://www.lse.co.uk/ShareChart.asp?sharechart=EZJ&share=easyjet) on a five year scale or three month scale and it looks different. Look at Ryanair (http://www.lse.co.uk/ShareChart.asp?sharechart=RYA&share=ryanair_hldg), as well

[clear prop!!!]

Good point Alex,...but prepare to hear how wrong you are!:O

[Philpaz]

Anyone can use the internet to back up pos or neg views, but i think anyone thinking this is anywhere near the trough has to be seriously deluded. Not sure were talking atom bombs (but armageddon is supposed to be fought over the holy ground <think middle east/Israel>) but i am sure that the world as we all know it has ended. NO more easy money, back to grafting, as grandad said, where there's muck theres brass lad. People need something to believe in and someone to blame, I blame labour/Tony and Gordon. They have systematically removed all regulations, sold all assets and passed laws to remove your freedom to object. My mam calls them New Communism, cant say i disagree. The far right are rising fast and thats no good thing for anyone, especially with the powers that New Labour have given the governing body (themselves).

Things are going down hill fast people and i see no green shoots, a few weeds maybe but nothing that remotely looks like a recovery and that will be a much slower and more painfull process than the downturn anyway. I honestly believe that my little lass will be a spotty teen (at least) before things are truly right again and she's not quite 4 yet.

[A and C]

You poor deulded sole!

Quote What a wonderful world for wannabee pilots if all airlines evolve to look like Ryanair. Are they still recruiting?

RYR is not a nice place to work and the only thing it has going for it for the passenger is that it is some times cheap ( if you get the right seat on the right day, don,t ever want to change the booking and if the aircraft goes "tech" don't mind waiting three weeks for another seat).

I have seen it from the inside and it is not very nice at all.

[getoffmycloud]

Ha A&C I think you will find that GSB' comment was said with tongue firmly place in cheek!:}

[A and C]

I hope that you are correct, but it would be best if all who read these pages (and dont know the business from the inside) are quite clear what is what before they commit them selfs to spending a lot on a type rating.

Once the money is spent they are rather stuck with a small number of airlines that fly that type, so getting a fix in the company culture is vital to avoid three or four years of "unhappy" working conditions.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

If you want to rebase the shareprices over 5 years for inflation and market cap its still sharply negative, RYR and EZY have roughly doubled in that timeframe..

Some UK airlines are going to go under. Everyone in the industry knows the shortlist. It doesn't get talked about on PPRuNe very much as everyone is very sensitive to everyone else's predicament. Wannabes need to factor it in though. Its not just lack of growth that is going to be their problem.

What is happening right now is not a mere recession it is the start of a Depression level event. Just today we read that:

Japan industrial output plunges record 45.7%

Japanese imports and exports crashed by their biggest margins since 1957 last month as the world stopped buying cars, semiconductors, electrical machinery and ships.


Japan industrial output plunges record 45.7% - Times Online (http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/industrials/article5804516.ece)


This is unprecedented in several generations. This sort of thing doesn't just get patched up and then the world continues as normal. The world has changed.

UK Public Spending will have to be cut by around a third within a decade. That's massive. That's awesome. That's the entire social security (dole and benefits) budget size. If it doesn't the debt interest doomsday machine will destroy the country and we'll be back to 1974 where Gilts had to pay 17% for the Government to get any international money.

What the political class are in a real flap about is the simple truth that the post WW2 settlement is over. Between East and West, State and Citizen. The welfare state is sunk and in the West, just like everywhere else, you'll have to earn your living or starve. Mobile phones, cars, holidays, Sky for those that don't work is going to stop. Finally.

The world really has changed and your living through it.

A villa in Spain, a weekend in Rome, popping over to Paris for the match and holidaying in Goa are all going to suffer. Badly.

WWW

[cfwake]

Repent! Repent! Repent all ye sinners! The hour of darkness is upon us! Repent I say!

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

What - I'm morally outraged or something? Nah. Disinterested fascination is closer. I've made my preparations.

Look at Italy as just one small piece of a far bigger jigsaw. They have lost 40% in labour competitveness since joining the Euro. It must lower wages quickly and deeply. But no Greek or Italian government is likely to opt for mass unemployment, or stay in power if it tries. Italy already is in public debt to the tune of over 110% of GDP. If it tries to deflate then the compound interest spiral will cripple it in an unescapable trap.

If they try to issue their own currency and redenominate out of the Euro the bank run will cause all their banks to call in all their loans collapsing all their remaining economy.

The world has changed.


WWW

[cfwake]

Would your 'preparations' include a tin hat, several thousand tins of Marks and Sparks' sweet and sour and an Anderson shelter?? I am somewhat concerned that in addition to your impressively in-depth analysis of the current global economic situation, you have now brought mention of the use of nuclear weapons by Iran into the conversation. Have you been watching a lot of Sky News recently??

And there I was thinking you were a light hearted kind of guy!

[cfwake]

Actually, can you just confirm, when you wrote:

"Alt-A default, Eastern Europe in the hands of the IMF, revolution in China and the break up of the Euro - THEN - we might be coming out of the other side of this as long as Iran hasn't started detonating atom bombs.

Give it 18 months"

Is that 18 months until Iran drops a nuclear bomb on Gloucester, until China burns with revolution (how would that work anyway? Will they demand bureaucracy?), until the Euro collapses leaving 1 billion people without jobs, homes, running water or copies of the Daily Mail, or until the IMF buys the governments of Eastern Europe?? Or is it all three?!

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Clearly its all three.

Do you want to book a seat in my cellar/bunker? :E Once they're gone they're gone etc.


And what precisely is wrong with Sky News - beats the hell out of Pravda News over on the BBC..

WWW

[cfwake]

Ha! As long as you don't charge me extra for checking-in at the front door, using the loo or bringing a case with me you're on!!!

As for Sky News, well that's another day's work right there...

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

No there's just the ticket price and modest booking fee - however all payments must be made in gold, no fiat currencies or paper money allowed I'm afraid..

WWW

[rogerg]

This thread is getting boreing, a WWW benefit. He may be right he may be wrong. As one who has been around a longish time I suspect that it will not be easy but it will all work out for the general good in the end.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

I concede the battle is won, the point is made, the victor has struted off spoils in hand.

Denied it would happen by many it has come to pass.



The real issue now is now how much worse it will become and how soon the recovery will begin.

WWW

[Reluctant737]

WWW,

Thanks, for if ever I need a good laugh, I just pop right on in this thread and read a few of your posts :ok:

Well it keeps me amused anyway!

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Amazingly its a free service.

Those that laugh now were the ones that laughed at the beginning of the thread when I said that house prices were going to crash and this would lead to a major recession.. People scoffed then and called me a doom monger.

Its all there if you scroll back.


Scoff away.

WWW

[Philpaz]

All the people that scoff and sneer at the doom, this ones for you.

Can you really, honestly in your heart of hearts see a way out of the current situation without serious world change?

I can't. I wish i could but I can't.

In the fine words of Mr Obama, There's a change coming. It will be a long hard struggle and there will be suffering but it will all be better in the end for it.

Scratch that, I dont wish i could because change is needed desperately. I just hope the change isn't as severe as easy Jets own Mystic Taff is predicting. But again, there will be suffering, it will be painfull. Change always is.

[BitMoreRightRudder]

Can you really, honestly in your heart of hearts see a way out of the current situation without serious world change?



Yep, I propose a group of us form a fellowship, travel into the depths of middle earth, find that evil bloke who lost his ring and give him a good kicking. That should sort the whole thing out.

I'd volunteer but I'm on earlies.

[cumulus]

WWW, I can black-cat you on this one. I predicted all this back in 2005, when I bailed out of modular training.
Now, we need to arrange a time and place for you to formally hand over the PPRuNe Orb of Seer. Let's keep this dignified - don't make me have to come and take it off you... :ok:

[Philpaz]

I'd volunteer but I'm on earlies.


And i've got bad knee's but any takers are welcome to borrow my walking boots and batman utility belt.

On a ****er note, just got informed this morning that when theres no work (which there isn't) were all being paid a standby rate at roughly 30% less than standard. Bloody beggars! I might be pitching a tent on WWW's farm before the end of the year, dont worry though i'll bring my air rifle to defend against the zombie army :ok:

Oh, and beer.

[DeltaT]

Yep, I propose a group of us form a fellowship, travel into the depths of middle earth, find that evil bloke who lost his ring and give him a good kicking. That should sort the whole thing out.

Yes, there are a few evil airline people in middle earth New Zealand who could do with being shown where their ring is. (think about it)

[ei-flyer]

lol i love the brown nosing that goes on round here :p

[Grass strip basher]

A & C my comments were made with my tongue very much placed in the side of my cheek. Won't be long before that cowboy MOL has crew paying to use the toilets on board at this rate.

Nevertheless there will be a relentless stream of wanabees beating a path to his door over the next 2-3 years as it will be pretty much their only chance of getting a jet job. And MOL will use their dreams to undermine the pay of his current "employees".

Flight training schools should include a tub of vaseline and map to the the nearest job centre as standard issue along with all those shiney ATPL note/headsets/maps... :yuk:

[ei-flyer]

it will be pretty much their only chance of getting a jet job.

sad but true... but for now oxford seem to be doing ok, theyre still finding their new grads interviews, although the figures are down about 40% on what they were this time last year...

i'm glad i did it modular, and whats more i fly for the best irish airline :ok:

[doctordoom]

The only way out of this recession is a good old war. I mite sound a bit like WWW, but its wots coming next. Its the only way out of it and it has been the only way for the last Century. Mark my words we are all doomed, doomed I tell you.:\

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Germany rejects Eastern Europe bailout - International Herald Tribune (http://www.iht.com/articles/2009/03/01/europe/01union.php)

Germany rejects Eastern Europe bailout



Today was a momentous day. Merkel knows that whilst the British banking system is at a leverage of 20 and the USA at 10 hers is at a factor of 50. They'll need everything they've got for their own bailouts. Todays announcement of Eastern Europe being denied a bailout will be panicking the PIGS. Sorry, Ireland, if you were hoping for a Euro-club bailout courtesy of the Germans - look away now and see if you can find the number for the IMF sharpish.


Economic collapse in Emerging Markets is the next crisis in my opinion. The world financial market has not even begun to get close to factoring in the impact of a mass sovereign debt default in Emerging Markets. This is going to be like the default on Govt bonds after the Russian Revolution combined with the Asian Crisis, combined with The Latin American Debt crisis all rolled into one giant mess.

No Brady Bonds this time - the West is a bit busy.


War is inconceivable. The collapse of the Euro isn't.


WWW

[Big Frank]

Following WWW's point, I was wondering how a crash in the Euro would impact upon anyone with a loan in Euros? I would presume (perhaps wrongly) that the loan would reduce, but surely the bank would have some contingency plan in place for this? I doubt they'd be happy with hundreds of customers suddenly having to pay less every month.:confused:

[Re-Heat]

Following WWW's point, I was wondering how a crash in the Euro would impact upon anyone with a loan in Euros? I would presume (perhaps wrongly) that the loan would reduce, but surely the bank would have some contingency plan in place for this? I doubt they'd be happy with hundreds of customers suddenly having to pay less every month
If your loan is denominated in €uros, and the €uro crashes against your local currency (in which you earn / live), you pay comparatively less every month in your local currency terms.

It matter not what the bank thinks, as they receive the same repayment stream in €uros.


This is how the recession will pan out:

- Company results will be patchy for the remainder of the year
- Full year results 2009 will be bleak (January 2010 announcements onwards)
- Once all the bad news is out, people will pause for thought
- Investment on delayed / essential capital expenditure will start incipiently in Q1 2010
- Company results mid-year will start showing improvement
- Confidence returns late 2010
- High inflation ensues in early 2011 as excess capacity reductions cause large price rises.
- Late 2011, we all forget we were ever here.

Barring any further bad news / corporate disasters, I feel it unlikely to happen quicker, based upon my professional financial judgement. If currency crises / wars follow (which I feel is highly unlikely), add a year or so to the above programme.


Avoid flight training until January 2010.

[Grass strip basher]

Re-heat from where I sit I would take your scenario in a heartbeat.

HSBC raising £12.5bn today... tells you more about where we are going than where we have been... they feel it is going to get sooo bad they will need the extra money.

You need your head examined if you start an ME/IR now.... :(

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

I'm not sure about the HSBC rights issue. They bought Midland for a song in a previous crash so are they gearing up to go shopping in this one OR are they wisely filling up the fire buckets before the first flames are seen in the windows... Not sure. Think its more the former but then that would be the bullish side of me running riot!

2007 was the year of the ugly Dollar. 2008 of the ugly Pound. 2009 will be the year of the ugly Euro. Sky rocketing unemployment and an inability to export will force them to crash their currency. Which is a good thing. A strong currency is more of an ego trip than a good thing. Its the collapse of Eastern Europe and the Belgian/German/Austrian/Swiss banks that lent to them that is the real show to watch.

As todays appalling stock market falls go to illustrate we are a long way from bottom yet. Woolies and a couple of frock shops are merely the hors d'oeuvre of this crisis. 3.5 million unemployed, 7% GDP contraction, houses down 35% and then we can start talking about finding bottoms. Missus.

My previous advice of entering the wannabe pilot job market in 2011 at the earliest really needs pushing back a year I think.

Next winter is when the airline job losses will really kick in. Do nothing until at least then when the scale can be assessed.


WWW

[Big Frank]

Thanks for that Re-Heat, look like it's going to be an interesting couple of years before it all starts getting better! :bored:

[Black Knat]

Long term I think all that is happening will be a good thing. Our 'leaders' with snouts on the trough will be given a good kicking, the worship of the moneymen will end (shame we abolished stoning) and maybe people will learn to be content with what they have. I would suggest relatively few people are really happy from the last 20 years that have seen having somewhere to live costing most of their wage and their job security/income squeezed/quality of life reduced etc. Interesting times ahead I think.

[quant]

Avoid flight training until January 2010.

Nope, i'm going ahead anyway:ok:

[Rugbyears]

Quote:
Avoid flight training until January 2010.
Nope, i'm going ahead anywayAs am I, unfortunately, I am to far down the road to conduct a 180. However, I am pacing my training appropriately - certainly whilst completing the ATPLs, I will endeavour to resist flying simply to accrue hours. I would estimate that I have a good 18 months of training left. :)

[jimclearsky]

Ennis Co. Clare Ireland

Unemployed Bankers, Architects and Accountants soon to be flipping burgers:

Bankers applying for jobs in McDonald's | BreakingNews.ie (http://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/eyaukfcwcwey/)


and i thought www was just an old pessimist!

[quant]

The upturn is here!
British Airways first-class and business-class passengers down by 20 per cent (http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/transport/article5847758.ece)

British Airways’ first-class and business-class passenger numbers fell by 20 per cent last month as the airline admitted that it was spending £2.7 million of cash every day.
Traffic figures for February were hit by continued weakness in demand because of the economic downturn and also by snow at the start of the month. The poor figures came as BA prepared to meet institutional shareholders today amid growing concern about its financial position.
BA has said that it will suffer an operating loss of £150 million in its year to March 31 after a £900 million profit last year. Analysts fear that next year may be even worse, with some predicting losses of more than £400 million.
Keith Williams, BA’s finance director, said last week that the airline was getting through cash at a rate of £2.7 million a day and that cash balances were falling too fast.
Are we likely to see a bankrupt BA? or will they consolidate and live to fight another day?

:ooh:

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

No idea.

However, there is no chance that this deep crisis - worse than Sept 11th worse than 1990 - will be any different and several large airline will go bust.

Wannabes, unless willing and able to work for subsistence wages, are screwed.

Screwed.


Screwed.



There may be some jobs for low time people but it will be at McDonalds wage rates.

WWW

[quant]

Perhaps this is the way to raise funds:
Ryanair may charge passengers £1 to use lavatories on flights (http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/travel/news/article5817613.ece)

Passengers on Ryanair have learnt to live with paying £2.50 for a cup of coffee. Now they may have to get used to paying another pound to relieve themselves of it.

http://www.mysmiley.net/imgs/smile/cool/cool0018.gif (http://www.mysmiley.net/freesmiley.php?smiley=cool/cool0018.gif)

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

BA's premium pax fell 20% in Feb. Its a disaster out there. For all airline. In every country.

You won't see the impact until the summer trading is over. Winter 09/10 will be carnage. The long talked about consolodation will happen and will be brutal. Many pilots will be unemployed. The army of those willing to work for subsistence wages and airlines willing to employ them will be the differentiating factor this time.

WWW


Its going to be biblical:



http://www.contractjournal.com/blogs/brickonomics/assets_c/2009/01/HPI%20and%20Unemployment-thumb-430x363.gif

[biaeghh]

I am not so sure about all this doom and gloom welshman, on a more positive note the Honda F1 team are going to be racing this year and U2 have released a great album

[quant]

BA hints at job losses as revenue falls - Times Online (http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/transport/article5849685.ece)

British Airways has raised the possibility of significant job losses in the coming year and warned that its revenue will fall by 5 per cent.
The airline was updating shareholders on its outlook for the year and hinted that it may have to pay for job losses. The company has already cut the headcount in management by about 500 from 1,400 but these costs have been accounted for.
The airline has so far declined to speculate on whether jobs would also be lost from cabin crew and its operations division. BA is negotiating with trade unions to freeze the pay of its 45,000 staff.
In a statement BA said: "A similar operation result for 2009-10 to that forecast for 2008-09 has been targeted, before any severance costs in 2009-10."


Who will be the next airline after BA to send pilots to McDonalds?

:ooh:

[Lurking123]

"Biblical"?
Bad, yes.
Very bad, probably.
Hideous, possibly.
Biblical, hmmmm. :)

[SW1]

Maybe we should send a plague of Locusts to the bankers and the evil Pharoah ,Gordon Brown, who got us into this mess!

[Re-Heat]

Are we likely to see a bankrupt BA? or will they consolidate and live to fight another day?
No; they will survive. Along with Ryanair, easyJet and flyBE. Who knows about many others.

757s sold, protect slots at Heathrow (much of the value of the business), take advantage of bmi dying a slow death, and help kill of the unviable US carriers. 2 years is a while until the cash runs out...and at least this is the worst stage of the recession.

[Rugbyears]

At least this is the worst stage of the recession.
I'm not as confident as you I am afraid. I would propose we will experience further negative agents as a consequence of the economic correction, prior to observing the economy / industry improving.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Citi today:

“We doubt that house prices have yet reached their low, and expect that prices will fall a further 10%, and perhaps 20% from here.”


Their forecast is for 3 million people (one in four) of mortgage holders, to be in negative equity by next year.

Given the close correlation between house prices and consumer spending in Britain, this feel-bad factor will last for as long as so many are in negative equity. And how long will the negative equity last for?

This graph showing how house prices took nine years to recover in the last downturn – and were propelled back upwards with a credit binge that a recession-decimated Britain is very unlikely to repeat. So it may well be the 2020s before anyone who bought in the last few years will recover their capital.


http://www.spectator.co.uk/article_images/articledir_6826/3413146/1_fullsize.bmp

[EZYramper]

and U2 have released a great album
...........................................taxi!

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

The graph has a thousand words.

Its different this time. Much much worse. The world will not return to where it was for a generation at least. Overcapacity is going to be wiped out in all areas. In car production it looks like Vauxhall is going. In airline transport it looks like ___________ is going and __________ and ___________.

Wannabes will find jobs but it really will be at minimum wage. That's what the profession has sunk to. It breaks my heart.


WWW

[ei-flyer]

i'll bite - so which one of those graphs is actually correct?

I only ask because they show two different things of which only one can be factual. The first graph shows it took 14 years for house prices to regain their original peak. the second graph shows 8.5-9 years...

thanks

[Rugbyears]

minimum wage

As in £7.40ph...? or basic in terms of airline salaries..?

I would find it exceedingly difficult to survive on £7.40ph, more so, after self financing training..!
:eek:

[ei-flyer]

Rugbyears,

as in £5-50 ph :ok:

[Nearly There]

WWW,as our resident pprune voice of economics, what do you think of BoE annoucement today, and the effect it will have? or will the banks just hoard it away:*

Still sticking with Zurich?:ok:

[Reluctant737]

Nearly There, if you're referring to what I think you are, you're a wise man, and I too have my investments in the same establishment!

ta, ad

[quant]

Rugbyears,

as in £5-50 ph http://static.pprune.org/images/smilies/thumbs.gifOnce trained and if offered a flying job paying said money, sadly i would happily accept :}

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Gold, in Zurich, in reality, with anonymous accounts. BullionVault is good.

Todays announcement is nothing new nor is the Quantative Easing (printing money and giving it away). Everything will be thrown at the established system because the banks own the system.

Hyperinflation of fiat currency lies ahead. Protect yourself.


WWW

[clear prop!!!]

For sale...one much publicied farm...will swap for gold!!!???:O

Hubris?....never a word that one would ever associate with our esteemed moderator!!!

[belleh]

As in £7.40ph...? or basic in terms of airline salaries..?

National Minimum Wage is £5.73/hour if you're 22 or older (works out at about £11,000/year full time, perhaps a little under.) I know, as a student nearing graduation, I'm on it.

Trust me when I say, May-June 2009 is the worst time to graduate, which is when I will. It's so bad that I'm considering going ahead and completing a Masters (possibly in business or management to supplement my Computer Science BSc); something I never ever intended to do. But, I'd rather make myself more marketable and shelter myself from the economic storm for a further year, than grind NMW for the unforeseeable future.

For any professional to be offered National Minimum Wage is a disgusting and nightmarish situation. Let's hope it doesn't come to that.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

BA warns of pain as Walsh gets top job in merged firm | Mail Online (http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/article-1159819/BA-warns-pain-Walsh-gets-job-merged-firm.html)

Seeing as I get slated for posting Daily Mail scare stories I thought I may as well actually be guilty of the charge for once...


Unite, which represents cabin crew, is due to meet with BA later today.

Industry sources believe its 13,500 on board staff will be worst affected by any cuts. BA this week reported an 8.3 per cent fall in passengers in February, including a massive 20.2 per cent dive in profitable business class flyers.

No-frills rival easyJet (down 14p at 296¾p) added to the gloom yesterday, reporting a 6.8 per cent fall in passengers in February.


Do NOT make the mistake of gaining expensive and time-expiring pilot qualifications in this market. You won't get a job.


WWW

[quant]

British Airways closes in on Iberia merger (http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/transport/article5849685.ece)

British Airways has given its strongest indication yet that the proposed merger with Iberia, the Spanish flag carrier, is imminent with only one outstanding issue to be resolved before the deal can be agreed.
Willie Walsh, the chief executive of BA, said that early sticking points including the airline’s pension deficit and share of ownership were no longer problems.
The chairman and chief executive roles have also been agreed in principle and an estimated £400 million of synergies identified.
However, Mr Walsh did say that there was still no agreement on how the merged parent company would control the two airlines.
:ooh:


Do NOT make the mistake of gaining expensive and time-expiring pilot qualifications in this market. You won't get a job.

I really appreciate your opinion www but peronsally i'm going to go ahead as planned and start training in April. I do understand the risks however i harbour the hope that we will come out of this in a few years time when my training should be complete.

:p

[skyhighbird]

good luck in april.

How you going about it? Mod/Int, where?

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

You're mad. A couple of years is nothing.


WWW

[biaeghh]

heh www,

get the new u2 album and chill out.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

I'm more Joshua Tree thanks. No need for me to chill - this is the crisis I expected and planned for.

WWW

[skyhighbird]

Wee weasley welshman,

I have been reading past posts/threads by afraz and fabbe92 and they make it sound so easy.

So stop with the doom and gloom. You are old school. They are the future.

[RVR800]

Some companies are doing very well at the moment

A lot of this is about confidence.

Its sometimes better to buy at the bottom of the market .. its cheaper .. some well known wales forecasters (moderators) were predicting $200/barrel at the end of last year -- they weren't right -- so beware of the doom and gloom brigade they tend to get carried away

House prices have fallen to some extent because people are electing to stay put and so there is a limited supply of people that _have_ to sell - so the figures are misleading - that said in my area they havent fallen much anyway

It fortunate that fuel costs are so low - it will help airlines boost their profits substantially

[skyhighbird]

WWW,

your daily mail days are numbered. It seems you are the phantom spreading low confidence amongst the airline industry.

From now on, I'm only going to listen to afraz, fabbe92 and RVR800.

[TheBeak]

It may be boring but it is a fact, don't bury your head in the sand. I can't believe people wont take good advice. The power of positive thought will not pay your debts and it will not get you a job, bad things DO happen. I WISH I had taken WWWs advice two years ago and Scroggs as well, and I have had a relatively risk free way of training. Airline pilots should not be risk takers and anyone even remotely considering training now is a BIG risk taker and deluded. And that goes for training with the likes of CTC or OAA or anywhere else - and I don't think it displays very good decision making either. I am not talking about the poor buggers who started before all this happened, people could be forgiven thinking WWW was a doom monger, but he was completely right. And not to the point of small detail like $200 a barrel perhaps but HE WAS COMPLETELY RIGHT AND IS STILL.You are doing it just because you want to and because all other work is boring and hard graft at the moment. It is not the right time and those are not the right reasons. EVERYONE I know bar a few deluded fools who believe in the ' I must, I must, I must increase my bust' technique are very worried and regretful of training - but we didn't have the warning backed up by facts like you guys and girls do. Sure you can buy a type rating with Ryanair or some other airline and pay to work but it is all on a very short term contract basis and you can be chopped out pretty quickly if needs be and the only people who will be stuffed are you and your families left with £100000 of secured loan on your homes. 6 months flying will NOT service your loan, it may fulfil your dream momentarily, but it will NOT service your loan. Think about it. I am not qualified to give detailed advice on the economy but the worst must be still to come, I'll fall through my arse if it has passed us or does anytime soon. The economy still has momentum from Christmas and the shock of it has helped carry things along a bit. At the moment companies are being as proactive as they can be but eventually, as a function of human nature, people will get tired of diminshing results. That coupled with the fact that the 'results' and statistics that people are quoting are probably 3 -4 months old - around the time of the busy Christmas period, so think how bad they are now. PLEASE DO NOT kid yourselves, things are not good at the moment and things are not going to recover in 2009 or 2010 and beyond that, who knows. I am not trying to stop competition from training, I am honestly just trying to do the right thing, I LOVE flying but I would not begin training anywhere near now.

[JB007]

Quant...

Good luck to you, but be aware...

£400 million of synergies identified.
This is just HUGE, and I mean colossal...i've just been through a merger with a plan for £100 million of synergies, this eventually became £150 million...a merger between BA and Iberia could easily become £500 million overnight, maybe even more...have a serious think where airlines are going to make savings...you cut airframes and you can reduce personnel, from Ops to Engineers, from Cabin Crew to Pilots...

Have a long hard think before spending any of your cash, because, and I personally don't buy into the doom and gloom shenanigans, it is what it is, you adjust, but as a 200 hour fATPL holder...you ain't gonna get a job...end of.

[Halfbaked_Boy]

Then people need to stop aiming for the damn airlines and open their eyes. Jobs exist. The hard part is finding them.

PJN isn't the Bible, you know...

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Umm, I never said $200 oil. Ever. I actually cautioned that it was a bubble. But hey, whats historical fact amongst discussion forum friends?


Oh - and house prices everywhere have plummeted, will continue to do so and its nothing to do with confidence or anything other than a CORRECTION of a BUBBLE. Many otherwise sensible people cannot understand this. With time it will eventually sink in. I think. Maybe.

Good post TheBeak - best of luck.


WWW

[Halfbaked_Boy]

The point is, there is no need for people to spend £100,000 on training. When you step back and look at the big picture, it's a ridiculous sum of money to spend to get to sit in a jet somewhere.

Let's say you went down the Ryanair road (and that's a big gamble nonetheless) - if you keep your costs down you could be looking at £60,000 of debt max (still a horrendous amount of money to owe).

And I beg to differ - I know of four people in Ryanair, which is not a good figure to run statistics from, but they are all still happily (yes, happily) employed, and two have been there a couple of years now. Sure, only one of them is based in the UK, but this 'six month' nonsense is exactly that - nonsense.

Whether you are flying for a living, or training, or grounded due to the economy, I think we can all agree on one thing - keep your options open and don't owe more than you can comfortably pay off.

WWW, sometimes it saddens me to see what you write. And that's got nothing to do with what you say about the economy - I don't need to come on here to see what's going on in the world. I'm talking about you as a person - I can see you care a lot for people's wellbeing on here, and that's very charitable of you. Whatever people say, you provide that very important voice from the other side, so well done. I can also see that you love your job, but fear for what it's going to become. I also thank you for the advice you gave me when I was a few years younger, ajinstansted :ok:

Yes, I continue to train - am I mad? Possibly. But unfortunately I have nothing else. Importantly, if I come out the other end into a vicious storm, I have my backups, and I can afford to keep myself current. This is why I continue. In a way, I am treating training as a small break from the slog of work. If I manage to locate a flying job at the end, that's simply a huge bonus.

Like hell am I ever going to pay for a type rating though. To those who do, good luck, and I understand why you do it. But unfortunately, it leads to the further degradation of our industry - it would be lovely to see people hold back, if only for a few months. You'd be surprised at what would change.

Cheers, Jack.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Give us your postcode then.


WWW

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Oh yeah, I was forgetting that Scotland is immune to the crisis and that house prices only ever go up in Edinburgh.

Despite the collapse of Royal Bank of Scotland and Bank of Scotland I'm sure everything will be fine.

property snake -- search -- find falling house prices in your area (http://www.propertysnake.co.uk/site/search) Searching EH1 shows four pages of price drops in that postcode.

WWW

[Lurking123]

Try some of the IVs (14, 17, 4, 15, 7 15, 16 and quite a few more) on the same website. Not one price drop. I suppose it depends what information you're looking for. :zzz:

[flyingwardy]

WWW, agree all areas in England have experienced an average fall in property value. However, it appears there has been monthly growth in certain areas, 3.8% in Redcar and Cleveland....

http://www1.landregistry.gov.uk/assets/library/documents/hpi2722009.pdf

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Seriously? You're seriously going to take a position that house prices in Scotland are different to every other part of the UK, France, Spain, Ireland, America, Italy etc. etc.

You're very slightly behind the curve time wise but its just a lag and is driven by the same factors that apply to the rest of the Developed world.

The UK is experiencing its worst house price crash on record. There are no reasons to expect abatement any time soon. Of course if a few Scottish banks hadn't lent quite so... ;)


WWW

[TheBeak]

''The UK was one of the worst performing markets, where house prices fell 16 per cent in 2008, second only to Baltic states such as Estonia, where prices dropped 23 per cent but which has a relatively small residential market.
The UK housing market continued to weaken last month according to the Halifax house price index yesterday. Prices fell by 2.3 per cent in February, more than reversing an upward bounce in January. In the three months to February, the decline was 3.6 per cent.''

From:

FT.com / UK - Property prices fall across Europe (http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/1e685dd8-09f0-11de-add8-0000779fd2ac.html)

So how about looking at the bigger picture rather than a very specific postcode? That is that house prices across the UK are falling. There will be areas that plateau or even show a slight 'upward bounce', perhaps because not much is coming on the market - to be expected in more remote postcodes in Scotland - simple supply and demand, however the national and international trend shows the UK to be declining and very badly relative to the rest of Europe.

And in terms of the point of whether to borrow £60000 or £100000, who cares, both are going to be a bitch to pay back with no job, and as I see it, you may as well go bankrupt for the £100000. At least get your moneys worth. I am sure that people who bought a type rating a year ago with Ryanair are doing pretty well and probably wont be made redundant but we are talking about now and the future for low hour pilots and the future doesn't look good, and buying a comparably expensive Ryanair type rating right now is again VERY risky. It could very easily be a case of last in, first out. But who knows, we do not, all you can do is make a sensible judgement, which it doesn't sound like alot of people are doing.

Sure there are jobs out there but there aren't many with any kind of career to them in terms of longevity and of those there are even fewer which are properly paid - unless you have lots of hours and qualifications, which you need a job to get, which is what we were talking about in terms of whether one should start training now......the answer remains an emphatic NO.

Anyone who starts traing now is a big risk taker and in MOST cases (of course not all) is doing so with someone elses assets i.e. their parents homes or savings and I think that is an incredibly selfish thing to do. The same goes for anyone with a partner who is doing it with their own savings, you would be absoultely crazy to start, I have seen guys lose girlfriends from how consuming training is alone without the added strain of the current and VERY MUCH THE FUTURE financial times. There is a saying: Don't let the perfume of the prize out weigh the stink of the risk.

But if you just HAVE to do it, I hope in the interview with the airline or other flying organisation that you think you are going to get, that the interviewer asks you why you decided to take such a big risk and make such a poor decision. After all they will be entrusting you with an extremely expensive asset, which is insured at huge cost, emblazened with their brand no doubt and containg a number of peoples lives.

As I said, you simply can't blame people who are too far into it, I am one of those people, but for anyone to actually start now would be absurd. At least give it two years......Don't look a gift horse in the mouth, the truth hurts, they are all cliches for a reason - because they are emphatic wisdom. And right now alot of people are looking a gift hose in the mouth and the truth is causing people a great deal of agony in terms of doing the right thing. WWW is talking nothing but sense, it is free advice backed up by facts. It doesn't get much better. I wish I had listened......

[quant]

Believe it or not, the entire Scottish population do not live solely in Edinburgh.

That's quite correct as the scottish have migrated south to number 10 and the rest of whitehall :p

[Lurking123]

TheBeak, I agree with you - I'm not arguing about the global downturn, I'm only pointing out that facts need to be, err, 'factual' and relevant. My Scottish friend pointed-out that in his part of the world house prices had held, this was countered with a postcode quote from a site that specialises in highlighting reduced house prices. Both quotes are true but their relevance is questionable.

Anyway, I've said my bit before on this thread. There is no doubt that the World (and therefore the aviation industry) is in for a very tough ride. I just see no need in perpetuating this particular discussion with endless statistics. A precis of the whole thing would take about 500 words, probably less. Maybe the thread should get a sticky and then be locked until there is something new to talk about? Anyone who still hasn't got the message after trawling through the scores of pages that currently exist probably deserves to go through a Darwinian selection process. :)

Anyway, must go, I'm about to win the lottery. :eek:

PS. Two flying job offers this week. Not airline stuff but, as someone previously said, some of the pain can be ameliorated by entertaining diversity.

[smith]

That's quite correct as the scottish have migrated south to number 10 and the rest of whitehall

and the english have all migrated to .......................... EDINBURGH!!!!!!

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Prices in your street may not have fallen but there's nothing wrong with a website that specilaises in listing falling property prices. Its all factual. If you think I can't find a dropped price within 10 miles of Inverness of anywhere else then you're wrong. The Scottish market has fewer props than many other small regions of the UK.

Continually talking about the continuing crisis is also perfectly legitimate.

FTO's continue to relentlessly market an upbeat prospectus..


WWW

[Reluctant737]

If you think I can't find a dropped price within 10 miles of Inverness of anywhere else then you're wrong.

go on, off you go WWW, if you manage this then we might just up your pocket money next week ;)

[TheBeak]

For IV2 1HS:




Postal District: Inverness
1998:£56,433, 2003:£110,591, 2006:£159,472, 2007:£184,458 2008: £178,179



From: House prices by postcode (http://www.hbosplc.com/economy/housepricesbypostcode.asp)

This portion of the conversation is really rather petty but in order to prove a point......

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

You couldn't afford my pocket money never mind upping it..


Within 5 miles radius search on Rightmove of Inverness:


5 bedroom house for sale in Ardersier, Inverness, Highland, IV2 (http://tinyurl.com/daw59t)

5 beds, many acres, started at £750k on June 12th now begging at £625k


Perhaps something at the other end of the market with 2 beds....

2 bedroom flat for sale in Apartment 5, Lentran House, Kirhill, Inverness-Shire, IV3 8RL, IV3 (http://tinyurl.com/c2xzld)

Started at £250k now at £230k since Oct 16th and still asking..




That's off the top of Property Bee's head within 60 seconds of searching. Can I have my pocket money increase in gold please?


WWW

[Reluctant737]

looks like you got me! I do admire how you back up words with evidence :ok:

cheers, ad

p.s. would you like that as a direct transfer to your bullionvault?