Growing Evidence That The Upturn Is Upon Us

[v6g]

Don't assume that everyone doing an IRT is hoping to work in Aviation.

[TheBeak]

Never! Where would our worldly resident lecturers spout their unrelenting tosh if posters had to abide by this???

Sit tight, follow their advice and don't do otherwise without their unequivocal permission - they know best http://images.ibsrv.net/ibsrv/res/src:www.pprune.org/get/images/smilies/thumbs.gif

Don't mind 99 jolegg, he/she has believed everything CTC have said and is resting quite comfortably on his/her laurels. Come and post to us when you are coming back down to reality wont you jolegg, because it will happen. If they haven't placed you yet, make sure you buy yourself some KY. Remember, there are no guarantees! And 'heavily implieds' count for jack :mad:. See if you can find Bealzebubs take on airline hold pools. In fact I'll try and find it for you and place it below.

As for your second sentence there:

From people of unquestionable intelligence:

MANY A TRUE WORD IS SPOKEN IN JEST - "Some truths, too painful or too likely to provoke, can be spoken only when the listener has been disarmed by laughter. A proverbial truth known for centuries, this notion was apparently first recorded by Chaucer with the line, 'A man may seye full sooth (truth) in game and pley,' from 'Canterbury Tales' (c. 1387). In 'King Lear' (1605), William Shakespeare wrote, 'Jesters do oft prove prophets,' and some years later, essentially the modern version was rendered in the 'Roxburghe Ballad' (c. 1665): Many a true word hath been spoken in jest.." From "Wise Words and Wives' Tales: The Origins, Meanings and Time-Honored Wisdom of Proverbs and Folk Sayings Olde and New" by Stuart Flexner and Doris Flexner (Avon Books, New York, 1993).

Go and find your box and get back in it.

Don't assume that everyone doing an IRT is hoping to work in Aviation.

Of all the assumptions in the world it is a pretty safe assumption though isn't it? Unless they sounded 50.

[TheBeak]

Bealzebubs excellent analogy:


It is a virtual reality version of the lobster/fish tank in a posh restaurant.

Candidates who might be deemed suitable for employment are told that they will be considered again as future vacancies arise. Sometimes those that are removed from employment will be told that they will be considered again if and when new opportunities arise. It gives the company a resource to possibly draw from at short notice rather than having to re-initiate a new recruitment programme.

The pool or tank in a busy restaurant is a useful feature that lets the customer select their own choice of product, with the knowledge that it looks fresh and attractive. In a busy restaurant the pool can be added to as necessary, ensuring a ready source of supply.

Inevitably, sometimes the product will become damaged or cease to be fresh in the pool and it can then be removed, discarded and replaced with something fresher, or if the market contracts can be emptied altogether. The pool/tank is a resource for the restaurant. Not every fish or lobster will become a fine culinary presentation. The best will usually be selected first, the leftovers will be discarded or cycled into other products as their longevity and lack of freshness make them less appealing to the customer. Fresh additions will often be selected ahead of older survivors.

When the market for fresh lobster drops off, the product can be humanely thrown back in the sea. The tank can be emptied and cleaned with bleach. It may provide window dressing for a while, but if it is taking up space and/or costing money to run, it is likely to be put in a cupboard.

An airline holding pool has many of the same characteristics. It provides a resource for the company. It can pick and choose who it might want from that pool at its own whim. It can add to it at any time. It can empty the pool or discard items as it wishes. Unlike the real pool, in this virtual pool the product is only "an expression of interest" that might have moved on elsewhere. It costs little or nothing to maintain, and because it is virtual, it provides no guarantees of priority of supply, for either the candidate or the company.

Airline "holding pools" are therefore simply a group of people who have both given and received an "expression of interest," at a particular point in time. There is no particular commitment on either party. As time passes some of the denizens of the holding pool will cease to be as attractive to the company that interviewed them. Likewise some might have found employment elsewhere. A "holding pool" is not a job, or even a promise of a job. The companies expect the candidates to realise this and act accordingly. The candidates themselves should realize this and accept that as a product they have a definite shelf life in this respect.

[theflyingbus]

Dont normally post, but thought this might actually be some useful information for you. I am fortunate in that I am currently working, for Thomson Airways. Heard, officially, today that we are 110 Pilots too many for next year, probably the same for 2011 and 2012 will be the earliest we will be recruiting. Sorry

[Phantasm]

I'm not trying to 'nitpick', and that's the truth, however -

By circumstances, I don't mean does this particular individual have £8,000 (if you're smart) to 'spunk on fresh air' as you so eloquently put it... What if the guy already has a job flying? Jobs with initial requirements CPL/MEIR/MCC/JOC/737TR blah blah blah aint the only (dying) harvest out there... maybe he works for a small operator or business who don't use simulators, hence renewals on the actual aeroplane? Trust me, for every ten jobs you'll find on PPJN or whatever you use, you'll find another hundred through word of mouth, granted your smaller operators, but why spend money advertising when you already have ten or fifteen people you know who are looking for work? Sorry, but that's the truth.

If there are people on here seriously looking to fly, you need to stop faffing around with all these CVs and telephone calls to a half arsed receptionist somewhere, get off your backside and knock on some doors, wash some planes, answer some A/G calls, whatever you need to do to get into the scene. On that note, folks with fATPLs working at big airports for 'experience' are doing themselves no favours - get out of there and into a smaller airfield doing whatever you can find. The only exception I can think of is if you're working in ops for one of the bigger carriers, but if you're lifting the SLF's luggage into planes, lol, it aint helping you.

My apologies for the thread drift, and good luck to all :)

[TheBeak]

It wasn't thread drift, the second paragraph is good advice if you are staying in this industry.

Though the first was a tad nit picky. The person was almost certainly doing an IR with a view to an fATPL. And they were spunking alot of money into the air.

[shaun ryder]

Small operators doing IR renewals for their pilots do not use exam call signs. Been there done that.

[99jolegg]

Yes, TheBeak, that post is very good. A shame you can't match it really, it might make the multitude of spoutings from your keyboard more passable.

[TheBeak]

If you do think Bealzebubs post is so good, why don't you LISTEN to it instead of spouting delusional crap that is based on f-all experience other than a bit of integrated FTO flying and the turd that they churn out.

Prove I am wrong rather than saying:

shame you can't match it really, it might make the multitude of spoutings from your keyboard more passable.

I welcome you to do so. And I hope you can.

Facts please, why am I and others who share my views (perhaps a little less strongly:E) wrong and you are right?

What you need to understand is that no one is questioning or knocking your ability to fly a plane or operate effectively as a member of a crew. I am sure you can do it very well. But the question is will you, qualifying when you are deliberately trying to do so. The answer is an unfortunate one for you.

[Grass strip basher]

Go easy on 99jolegg.... he is probably just waking up to the fact that he has paid a fortune for a training course with very little chance of a permanent job at the end of it. I would be a bit bitter if I was in his shoes and had been sold a story by CTC. :sad:

[99jolegg]

Facts please

Hmmm...quite. Shall we deal with those, then?

Where are my spoutings of "delusional crap"? Who says I haven't listened? In fact, where have I said, anywhere on this board, that "this will happen" or "that will happen" which would surely be the basis for "delusional crap"?

What you need to understand is that no one is questioning or knocking your ability to fly a plane or operate effectively as a member of a crew.

Where did I give you the impression I believed otherwise?

Unfortunately, there seems to be no truth, point, reason or fact to your post.

There really is no point in explaining another point of view - it'll always be wrong and unjustified to you because it's of variation to your own. You guessed my point of view though and got it hideously wrong.

Facts, you say.

[FREDA]

TUI just announced a significant increase in the pilot excess for summer 2010 on the basis of a fleet reduction.. :suspect:

Earliest prediction for any recruitment 2012 :uhoh:

Discussions ongoing as to how to deal with this excess :{

No good smileys in this post.

FREDA

[99jolegg]

Go easy on 99jolegg.... he is probably just waking up to the fact that he has paid a fortune for a training course with very little chance of a permanent job at the end of it. I would be a bit bitter if I was in his shoes and had been sold a story by CTC.

Thanks for your concern, but I'm not waking up to anything.

I don't think the chance of a permanent job is the biggest question - the time to that permanent job is more of an issue. I've personally planned for 2 years in the hold pool. Maybe that's wrong, maybe it'll be longer, maybe the hold pool will be emptied and I'll be a fish on dry land but these are uncharted waters and you have no more of an idea of the future (with regards to CTC's placing ability) than the next person simply because this situation has never occurred before (I refer to CTC's presence in this situation). The difference being, yourself and TheBeak will tell people what will happen when really you are guessing.

Other airline pilots (away from family and CTC) seem to think that 2 years or so from finishing the course (bearing in mind the course finishing time is 2010) isn't an unrealistic time to expect anything to happen. Again, they may be right, they may be wrong. They're guessing too so I don't attribute their words with any more weight than I do to those with the opposing argument.

Advice from anyone with any experience is always good...shame a few people on here cannot manage it without being denigrating and patronising, though.

[TheBeak]

There really is no point in explaining another point of view - it'll always be wrong and unjustified to you because it's of variation to your own.

If that's a personal you, you don't know me so that is absurd. As for the statement above, whatever you do, don't say that in your MCC or in any interview, for anything.

or operate effectively as a member of a crew. I am sure you can do it very well.

Retracted.

I know, that's bad news FREDA.

would be a bit bitter if I was in his shoes and had been sold a story by CTC.

Absolutely, I'd be seething. And still people are signing up and panicing over how to pass stage 2 of the 'selection' process.

it without being denigrating and patronising, though.

No one is rubbing sh1t in anyones face here pal. Sounds like you are getting a complex. I know what I know. Take it or leave it. CTC wont be placing you in 2 years. There is a 12 month limit on your time in the holdpool for a kick off.

[PPRuNe Towers]

And more than 100 ATPL's under threat at Virgin.

[99jolegg]

There is a 12 month limit on your time in the holdpool for a kick off.

Are you sure? Where did you get that information from? There are people that have been in the hold pool for approaching and over a year now and its the first they've heard of it.

No complex...just an observation...seems pretty valid to me looking at previous posts.

[TheBeak]

Are you sure? Where did you get that information from?

For the second time today, oh god. So you spent 80K and signed up for the scheme without reading the contract? I'd go and read it now if I were you. Or read the previous posts within the thread like I have just done. It clearly says that there is if the CTC posters are to be believed. Can any one from CTC confirm?

[99jolegg]

Yes, the contract that was written well before the recession says: "APL may terminate this agreement if the Cadet has been in the Holding Pool for a period exceeding 12 months".

Other parts of the contract go on to say that cadets cannot expect to get a job in any set time scale.

My point is that you say 12 months = kick off. For those approaching and over 12 months, this hasn't happened. Therefore, I wondered if you had any other more recent concrete information that this will / is the case. Should have guessed really...

Just try writing a post without being patronising. Go on, dare ya....

[RoyHudd]

Here's an unpatronising view on your chances of achieving a successful flying career jolegg...zero...reason--your unpleasant and hostile attitude...no apologies.

I expect you'll fire off something rude in reply. Please go ahead. But do start looking for a different career. Something which doesn't involve other people.

[piky]

Quote "What I heard was one of the two Oxford exam callsigns which means a CAA examiner which means an initial IRT/partial retake."

It could possibly be one of the 30 odd Kuwait/Jordanian students from Atlantic Flight Training coventry completing their course. AFT have been, and still are, busy training these guys for the likes of Kuwait Airways etc.

[cjd_a320]

Still deflating.....

NetJets Inc., the unprofitable plane-leasing unit owned by Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc., is cutting more than 300 jobs after replacing its chief executive officer.

“Severe economic conditions facing the aviation industry” have reduced demand for flights, Columbus, Ohio-based NetJets said today in an e-mailed statement. Ted Lowen, a spokesman for NetJets, said the cuts could affect as many as 350 employees.cont....

Berkshire?s NetJets Eliminates More Than 300 Jobs (Update1) - Bloomberg.com (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=avNpPryOdRRc)

[Penguin68]

Still deflating.....

There's no deflation in the price of things people actually HAVE to buy in either the UK or US. The official inflation figures are total BS based on a basket of flatscreen bluray wiigits, naff oaky chardonnay and other flim-flam. Compare your bills at Tesco (or Publix), BP (or Mobil) and your utility bills, property taxes etc. to 5 years ago and you see we've had massive inflation that hasnt been reported.

The things that have deflated are living standards and asset values. Both of them were artificially (and temporarily) inflated by unsustainably cheap credit. Now its back to earth with a bump except that the 'Tesco inflation' isnt ever going into reverse so most people will be significantly worse off than before the credit bubble.

[cjd_a320]

There's always incentive for the government to massage the official numbers for price "management" of inflation indexed bonds. ;)

Both Volume of Money & Credit are still contracting and we know what that means relative to available goods... :)

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

We're all getting a bit too bickery. We've been in this caravan of a thread for a long time now so its hardly suprising. I doubt any of us would fall out over a pint if we were put into the same bar.. Lets pause and have a bit of a group hug..

The fact is the industry is on its knees. Look up the 18yr economic cycle theory. Note the dates. Use wikipedia to find out about the MAJOR - big ones - UK airlines that went bust in the years following the last major recession. 18 years after the present one. Note the dates. Realise it all fits..

Ignore the people who blithley claim that 'nobody knows the future'. Of course they are correct. But. They fail to say 'those that know the past have a bloody good idea of what happens next'.



Don't train now. Don't start.


Its all royally fubar'd up for several years and even then then forget about the mad growth we had for the last decade which will never ever ever ever ever ever ever happen an ever ever ever ever ever again. Its over. It happened. Its gone.




There wasn't so much a boom as a nuclear explosion.


The people who will be most horribly burned and scared are those that don't realise this and who continue to fight to be given the chance to spend £70,000 on a training course.

Stop.

Please.


WWW

[cjd_a320]

One could play devils advocate with the inflationists & suggest this may be the ideal time to take on as much debt as managable for those who anticipate inflation with an eye on possable future debt "reconciliation", currency crisis or some other 6 sigma event. :8

Either way be it deflation or inflation the airline industry is still in for a catastrophic period at least until 2015. Learning mandarin could be a usful way to pass some time.

People know whats on the table & its upto them to play their hand accordingly.....

If the inflationist are correct , then learning to "pilot" a combine harvester will be more profitable than an ATPL.....:ok:

[piky]

Thank you www. Being very forward thinking as you are, then your future shouldn't be that bad....Should it? Good luck.

Regards
Puky:ok:

[Superpilot]

Clearly WWWs thinking is concerning the UK only and not even growth around Europe. His own airline has over 70 A/C to come and their rival over 100. Oh and I'm fully aware of the need to replace aging aircraft or even selling some on making a tidy profit in the case of RYR but lets not kid ourselves here. A 10 year old a/c is not old. The first A320s are coming up to 20 years old and only now are they being retired.

I would broadly agree that there cannot be significant growth in UK aviation over the next 5-10 years as UK Ltd has major issues but who cares there’s a world out there. For UK pilot jobs, retirements and medical losses will mean that the balance is going to be the same as it always was anyway. Spend some time abroad where there will be a major boom and then come back home in no great rush – if you want to.

Let’s not forget that airlines employ professionals to look at the market and analyse trends. With over 500 a/c on order by M.E airliners and roughly the same number by F.E airlines, clearly they see massive scope for growth despite the recession. RYR still have over 100 a/c to come, EZY over 70 more. Therefore, airlines can still see a requirement for supporting growth in Europe too and that is why the order book is so huge.

Let’s not let the economic troubles of UK Ltd make us doubt the imminent growth in global aviation.

[Sciolistes]

And recruitment is starting again in the world out there. I doubt much of that will be relevant to modular SSTR wannabes though.

Although the UK seems unlikely to be economically virile for a while yet, I would be suprised if many people saw any sense in continuing the staycation trend next year, now that even more people realise it is much cheaper to holiday abroad. Some airlines maybe facing a capacity shortfall next Summer if they plan not to recruit, crazy as it sounds.

It is doubtful that borrowing will return to prior boom levels (or anywhere near), so fleet sizess may not exceed pre-bust levels even during the next 'boom'.

Saying that trying to predict this business is futile and any opinions (especially mine) are probably no better than inane ramblings. I suspect the same extends to the afore mentioned analysts who nearly all messed up their hedging strategies. Their decisions tend to attempt to drive conditions rather than pre-emptively react.

[PosClimb]

Let’s not forget that airlines employ professionals to look at the market and analyse trends.They should have all hired WWW instead...

You'd think though the airlines would be aware of the cyclical nature of the industry... you get the impression they have very short memories.

You get an uptick in the economy, and then airlines go on these massive hiring and spending sprees as if it'll last forever, and then, inevitably, the economy goes into a bust cycle and next thing you know they're parking planes and laying off.

And the funny thing is they act like "we never saw this coming", but anyone with a history book can tell you the good times never last forever...

In fact, my view is that in aviation, in any given 10 year period of time, you seem to get 1 to 2 years that are really good, and then 8 years that vary between bad to super bad.

That seems to be the way it goes...

We've just begun the 8 year bad part...

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

I wonder the same thing often.

Just how could so many airline executives not seen the bubble bursting on the horizon? Why does it not even seem to be something that is any Directors job description?

Fred Harrison was in print in the summer of 2005 predicting a massive crash in 2008 and stating precisely why and how. I bet nobody will be listening to him 15 years from now when the cycle repeats..

Governments always think they can in some way control boom and bust cycles, but so far they have failed. Why? Because their economic models are overly focused on labour and capital rather than on land and property prices, the things that really drive economies. Classical economists such as Adam Smith thought that because the supply of land is one of the few things that is by nature finite, it is land that ultimately determines our economic fate. So while we talk (endlessly) about investing in “bricks and mortar”, it is in fact the plot underneath the house that really makes the difference. In fact, the price of land is the best leading indicator we have of the state of health of the economy.

Look at what has happened to prices since 1979. In the Nigel Lawson boom/bust of the late 1980s and early 1990s, the price of new houses rose by 300%, but the price of raw land rose by 1,000%. Then both turned down, ushering in a recession that hit bottom in 1992. Then from 1993 until Gordon Brown moved into the Treasury in 1997, house prices stayed on an even keel. But while house prices subsequently escalated to an annual increase of 25% at their peak, the price of land launched into the stratosphere. Land prices have risen an extraordinary 1,700% since 1979.

If Churchill had not been defeated by the House of Lords the UK would have had a Land Value Tax that would substantially have insulated us from these massive boom and bust cycles. Land value tax - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Land_value_tax)

History tells us that it is in the years following the end of recession that airlines go bust. For Wannabes this means job prospects will not turn rosy for something like 5 to 6 years from now. That's an awfully long time to be getting rusty and trying to keep an Instrument Rating current.

Remember that it is in a LOT of people interests for you to believe recovery is around the corner and that NOW is the right time to start spending your training budget.

WWW

[cjd_a320]

As the economic cycle plays out,there's a good possibility that any remaining airlines will back under state control in a highly regulated form ( not just a UK centric view)

What would that mean for any future growth prospects.....:rolleyes:

Aviations growth has been a reflection of credit expansion.So Aviations decline reflects credit contraction.

[smith]

RYR still have over 100 a/c to come, EZY over 70 more. Therefore, airlines can still see a requirement for supporting growth in Europe too and that is why the order book is so huge.


Think you are wrong there, FR tied themselves into a cut price deal with boeing and cant get out. If they could get out they would. They are getting brand new planes virtually by the week and parking up others, to say that there is "a requirement for supporting growth" is just pure folly I'm afraid.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

easyJets growth is now very slow by any standard of the past decade.

I think net its about 7 aircraft per year for the next 3 years with new Airbus replacing Boeings completely and some sales of older Airbuses or types like the A321 inherited from GB.

But be under no doubt that the fleet sized based in the UK is shrinking. Hell they are taking 20% of the aircraft and pilots out of Luton and sending them to more profitable bases and routes in other EU countries. So think on. When the UK's second largest airline (by a country mile) next wants pilots it would be far FAR more useful if they could speak Spanish and Italian and be happy spending their career thousands of miles away from the UK. Do you fit that bill?

The passengers on tonights Rome to Madrid EZY123 won't be much impressed by your PA announcement in broad Lancashire will they? And try explaining to Luigi the Engineer the finer points of some MEL implication in your broken Italian and his broken English.

Think your 200 hours and JAA issued license is going to cut much ice in any other part of the English speaking world?

Think any airlines in the Middle East are going to exacerbate their dependence on foreign pilots by hiring non-local FO's?


I know that plenty of Wannabes here aren't British. But most are. They need to be aware that what has been experienced over the past decade has both:

a) stopped, and

b) won't happen again


Then plan accordingly. But its in plenty of peoples interest not to mention this to them. A constant supply of Wannabes clutching a bag full of money is very much in the interests of the Government, the Flying Training Industry and the Airlines.



Its sick.


WWW

[cjd_a320]

WWW :Just how could so many airline executives not seen the bubble bursting on the horizon? Why does it not even seem to be something that is any Directors job description

Usual Janis Groupthink & Mackay Madness of Crowds. :8

Seen as you successfully rode the final aviation impulse wave WWW :ok: :cool:
Do you still plan to stay in aviation or will you be looking to change industry/sector to ride the next cyclical expansion phase which will not be in aviation ?

:)

[piky]

Quote"
And recruitment is starting again in the world out there. I doubt much of that will be relevant to modular SSTR wannabes though.

Although the UK seems unlikely to be economically virile for a while yet, I would be suprised if many people saw any sense in continuing the staycation trend next year, now that even more people realise it is much cheaper to holiday abroad. Some airlines maybe facing a capacity shortfall next Summer if they plan not to recruit, crazy as it sounds.

It is doubtful that borrowing will return to prior boom levels (or anywhere near), so fleet sizess may not exceed pre-bust levels even during the next 'boom'.

Saying that trying to predict this business is futile and any opinions (especially mine) are probably no better than inane ramblings. I suspect the same extends to the afore mentioned analysts who nearly all messed up their hedging strategies. Their decisions tend to attempt to drive conditions rather than pre-emptively react."

Think that fell on deaf ears....:ugh:The two economic experts on this platform still know best!!
Yes, there are jobs out there but a bike wouldn't suffice! Ramble on boys.:p

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

I'll allow a brief bit of navel gazing as it might possibly be of use in giving a Wannabe some perspective...


10 years of major UK airline flying Boeing and Bus, 10,000+ hours and the seat on the left with a £100k salary is where I'm at and I'm in the lower rather than upper 30's age bracket. Been very lucky, right place and right time.

Would I persue my career if my current set up fell apart? No. I don't think I would. Which is a suprise to me as I was a bit of a AeroSexual. Air cadets, gliding, RAF sponsorships, instructing, commercial instructing, PPRuNe involvement, airlines at 25 - flying has been a big big old part of my life. But I wouldn't follow it to the ends of the earth now. Its simply not worth it.

I know its a brilliant job against a whole host of measures. But it really, honestly, isn't what it was even in the 1990's. Managed by email, treated no different to a passenger at the airport, considered openly as a cost by the employer. No meaningful contact with the passengers half of whom clearly were dragged up without the basic principles of manners or politeness.

Aircraft where every switch and button is monitored. Where it automatically phones in every parameter of the flight you just Commanded to check for the tiniest error or broken parameter.

A job where promotion or any wrinkle in economic or currency values can mean having to move country. Where a routine medical or a simple accident can cancel your entire career. Where one mistake made at the wrong time can either see you sacked or dead or dead and your estate sued.



I still love it. Most of it and I'm under NO illusion that a Captains salary still is a lot of money and I'd never earn half it doing something else.

But.

I think if you said, You've Got To Move To The Middle East or something to keep working in this profession I'd simply stop. Go and do something for a quarter of the money, for a 10th of the stress, suffering less than half the tax, being able to claim triple the benefits and see my family double the time with a quarter of the commute and none of the shifts with all of the Weekends/Christmas/Bank Holidays. Yeah. Fine.

Poke my eye out and tell me I can't fly again and it would only be another chapter. I'm the least hippy, least green, gun toting, rear wheel drive, Clarkson loving, child of Thatcher you're likely to meet but, actually, I could manage on a lot less money in exchange for losing the obligations, demands, boredom and impositions of the job of UK airline pilot.

Many Wannabes might be suprised by how common such an attitude is amongst the Ares.



There are plenty of people doing the job you dream about who regard it as a pain in the arse.



I do love it though. Secretly. The magic is still there - just. There's many many more worse things you could do. So don't give up on your dreams. I made it and I'm nothing special at all. You could do it. The problem is the industry is vicious, doesn't care and will happily gobble you up and spit you out having taken all your money and never let you sniff at a job.

So time it right. Aim at 2015.


WWW


ps cjf_a320, specifically answering your question, No I don't back providing air travel services but I do see a big future in tourism. I see a third of the world (Chindia) going from UK 1905 to UK 1975 in the next decade. They'll want to visit Imperial Britain, land of Shakespeare etc etc. Rather than fly them I think there's more profit in hosting and entertaining them when they get here. That's my bet for the future. On the sidelines.

[cjd_a320]

Still deflating......

Sept. 14 (Bloomberg) -- Japan Airlines Corp. will cut 5,000 jobs over three years under a new management plan, the Mainichi newspaper reported, without saying where it obtained the information. The move will produce more than 100 billion yen ($1.1 billion) in annual cost savings, the newspaper said.

Japan Airlines to Cut 5,000 Jobs in Three Years, Mainichi Says - Bloomberg.com (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601209&sid=avCrgSHqSl6o)

[heli_port]

The European Commission today forecast that Europe would return to positive growth by the end of the year but that the recovery might not be sustainable in 2010. Europe warns recovery could be short lived - Times Online (http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article6833735.ece) 'False dawn' in UK housing market BBC NEWS | Business | 'False dawn' in UK housing market (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8253017.stm) An economic forecasting group has warned that the recent rise in UK house prices is a "false dawn". The Ernst & Young Item Club says property values will not return to their 2007 peak for at least another five years.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

We are in a fifth consecutive quarter of recession.

Real GDP fell 0.8% quarter-on-quarter.

Output has fallen 5.6% year-on-year the worst since records began in 1955.

The Bank of England base rate at 0.5%, is the lowest rate since the central bank was founded in 1694.

The Old Lady has eased £125 billion of new electronic money into the economy to create a false market in government gilts.

Nevertheless, the efforts thus far have met with little success: net bank lending to individuals fell to a fresh record low in June, net lending to U.K. businesses has slipped into negative territory in recent months, as repayments exceeded new loans.


---


This is a lull. Venture out and the storm will claim yet more victims.

WWW


ps Apologies to Guido.

[cjd_a320]

cjd_a320:People are still in a form of Bubble psychology... Can't blame them really.
Its become accepted behaviour over the past 30 years, that if "things" come down or pull back it must be a good time to buy into. Fine during a credit expansion but deadly in a credit contraction.

We just need to work through this mini "bailout bubble" phase before the herd reaches its "point of recognition" of true economic reality....

You have to love coverage of the 1 year anniversary of LEH collapse .... The "usual" we saved the world & things are returning to normal.... :ugh:

This mini bailout bubble still has some ways to go before the herd starts to move.....

As Bob Janjuah at RBS (Government bailed bank) reminds people..... The elephant in the room is who bails out Government after they have bailed out everyone else....?

[Cows getting bigger]

WWW, you want to comeback to instructing.:ok:

[JB007]

WWW's post #3129;http://www.freesmileys.org/smileys/smiley-signs009.gif (http://www.freesmileys.org/smileys.php)

Spot on, in everyword. To sum up, the flying is still awesome, this industry is pants!http://www.freesmileys.org/smileys/smiley-signs066.gif (http://www.freesmileys.org/smileys.php)

[UAV689]

Yes it is an ace post, but reading it and comparing it to my current career in an office on better than average salary, with career prospects led me to below conclusions

"I know its a brilliant job against a whole host of measures. But it really, honestly, isn't what it was even in the 1990's. Managed by email, treated no different to a passenger at the airport, considered openly as a cost by the employer. No meaningful contact with the passengers half of whom clearly were dragged up without the basic principles of manners or politeness."

Above exactly the same outside of an airline i am afraid WWW, expecially the managed by email part, when i am out the office for a week, I kid you not over 500 emails on my return...And the manners of some of the people in the office makes me want to scream at them!!

"Aircraft where every switch and button is monitored. Where it automatically phones in every parameter of the flight you just Commanded to check for the tiniest error or broken parameter. " - Kinda the same in my job also, every piece of information I alter on our systems gets scrutinized and checked by a handful of people, all of whom looking to have a moan and get one up on you.

"A job where promotion or any wrinkle in economic or currency values can mean having to move country. Where a routine medical or a simple accident can cancel your entire career. Where one mistake made at the wrong time can either see you sacked or dead or dead and your estate sued." - I am lucky in that I dont have the risk of the ultimate price over my head if I do balls up though, although i guess a serious accident has the potenial to end most careers.

"I still love it. Most of it and I'm under NO illusion that a Captains salary still is a lot of money and I'd never earn half it doing something else. " I bet you still love it, I dont love mine!! bet you could ask a lot of people that want to fly do they love their current job and most would say no i imagine!

So dont go packing it all in just yet, things are not much different in a real job WWW!!

Maybe nothing is, what it was anymore...

[TheBeak]

Very true UAV.

[R T Jones]

I think we should suggest this website to anyone who is feeling remotely happy, it sure does kill off that.
Don't get me wrong, I am not having a go at anyone on here as I agree with a good amount of the posts. I'm just merely pointing out how depressing it is!
Phoned HSBC about loan deferral, joyful times.

[cjd_a320]

Still deflating....

Kings going swedish..
Sept. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Bank of England Governor Mervyn King said policy makers are considering lowering the rate they pay financial institutions to hold reserves at the central bank to encourage lending. cont..
King Says BOE Considers Cutting Reserve Deposit Rate (Update3) - Bloomberg.com (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601102&sid=asb6hf8j8tLc)


What were they thinking two years ago? :8

King:
Britons should not expect another cut in UK interest rates for at least two years, the Bank of England indicated yesterday as it warned that inflation would rise far above its previous forecasts and persist at levels well above the government’s target until early 2010. cont..

That FT front page is hung up on quite a few walls.....


Money supply & credit ( take a look at the Feds own weekly MS figs) is still contracting and we know what that means for the airline industry.. :eek:

Inflationists seem to have gone very quiet, which is a little disconcerting :suspect:

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

The situation is unnerving. If we end up going down the Swedish route then we are going to be doing something that was totally unthinkable only two years ago. Something that only banking techies talked about in a hypothetical discussion.

WWW

[Penguin68]

The situation is unnerving. If we end up going down the Swedish route then we are going to be doing something that was totally unthinkable only two years ago. Something that only banking techies talked about in a hypothetical discussion.

The 'Swedish route' is entirely justifiable and typically pragmatic of them - as opposed to the dogma of the 'invisible hand fundamentalists' still clinging to their failed religion. You don't want private (or ex-private) banks to be penalised (by having negative rates) for leaving cash on deposit with the central banks instead of doing something productive with it? ... okay then, well maybe they shouldn't be able to leave it on deposit with the central bank at all - if it is inapropriate for the state to penalise, it should not reward them either by paying interest. Where would an entirely private banking system unhinderded by the intervention of dreadful socialist bureacrats be today? ... stone cold dead is where it would be, the financial system would have collapsed completely because 'real banks' and insurance companies were allowed to play in the casino, and they lost. Remind me whose idea that was? Oh, I forgot, this is all the fault of Fannie & Freddie distorting the godlike purity of the market right? ... its a well aired Rovian talking point but as usual its very far from the truth. I spent 15 years working in the casino as a risk analyst. I know what I'm talking about. Everyone knew a blowout was coming but they all thought they'd get out in time and some other idiot would be the 'greater fool'. Not many did get out, and even those that did got caught up in the downdraught: forget the retrospective spin, if it wasnt for the state even 'smarter-than-thou' Goldman Sachs would have perished despite being massively short RMBS via the ABX - their counterparties were bankrupt (e.g. AIG) and everyone knew that, so like Bear and Lehman before them Goldman's access to money market funding vanished.

After 80 years of social democracy the Swedes have left the US and UK for dead. The unemployed in Germany have a higher standard of living than tens of millions in the US who have 2 or more jobs yet Bunds are considered safer than T-Bills or Gilts and the Euro is stronger than the Greenback or Sterling. Whose model has failed? I had to laugh at the capital & labour comment ... which governments were practising Keynesian intervention until after the deregulated and in fact largely un-regulated financial markets blew up the real economy? Certainly not the ones in London or Washington. Are the public finances in a mess because (a) NHS nurses get paid too much? (b) there are too many state school teachers? (c) we had to bail the financial sector that ran wild with deregulation, in order to limit the collateral damage to the real ecomony. Socialise the risk, privatise the profit, and slag off the state. Great :ugh: And no, we did not have the Iceland option, nor did the US or any major economy. Saying that the situation could be fixed or avoided by sticking to the purest of free market fundamentalist principles is like saying the dying patient just needs a few more leeches to get better. For what its worth, before I was a casino 'insider' I used to be a believer as well.

[UAV689]

I don't fully understand the in's and outs of inflation,but all I can say is that in the large succesful global retailer I work for we are getting price increases and will be passing these on! So give it 12 months and shop prices will be higher. They are also banking on a more farorable dollar rate,don't know if that will happen....

[cjd_a320]

Well written post Penguin68 :)
And no, we did not have the Iceland option, nor did the US or any major economy.

With Bernake living in a Minskian world while perceiving it through friedmaite eyes, (as Steve keen points out) that sigma event is still on the table.
:oh:


UAV689 farorable dollar rate as in a weaker US dollar ?

[Penguin68]

They are also banking on a more farorable dollar rate,don't know if that will happen....

When (maybe I shouldn't say 'when' but its pretty certain) the next stock market crunch hits (Q4?) the dollar will gain a lot of ground rapidly vs. Sterling and everything else but I doubt it will last more than a year like that. I'm looking to buy Sterling again below USD 1.30 and close it out when it reverts back to the 1.50 - 1.70 range. I'm pretty conservative and don't get greedy when I play the game so I never try to eke out the last cent. Ultimately both currencies are cursed by the aggressive QE and ought to decline vs. the Euro in the long term (note Merkel has already fired warning shots across the ECB's bow re. excessive QE) but relatively ??? You could argue that Sterling will suffer more long term as its not the global reserve currency but US consumers have more leverage to unwind and house prices are not propped up by the scarcity of land except for New York & San Fransisco. I'm neutral on cable long term.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Penguin68, thanks for posting your knowledgeable insight.

I share your views, broadly. Though esoteric to a forum ostensibly focussed on pilot careers it is both rare and useful for Wannabes to be exposed to wider economic discussion. Their employment prospects are defined by it to a far higher degree than their basic training school, general aptitude or choice of tinted spectacles...

Bt Swedish route I was confining myself to what they've done with their central bank system and their ill-advised lending to the Eastern Europeans. Their wider economic model is another matter. I think its brilliant but can't work here because we don't have their levels of social cohesion, i.e. all white, all speaking Swedish, all third+ generation Swedes. All being >90%.

Going -0.25% is something I didn't expect to see in Europe in 2009. The Swedish Krona has yo yo'd but its like watching a theoretical experiment unfold in reality. If the Swedish bank lending is currently increasing (big if) then negative rates could be here by Christmas I reckon.

They're very desperate for a medicine that works. If one looks like it does they'll snatch its arm off. The medical books said Interest Rates at <0.5% would work and also said printing money (QE) would work and now the Doctors are starting to panic..


I've gone Chinese - I'm buying Gold on the dips.


WWW


WWW

[Penguin68]

WWW - apologies if I sound a bit over feisty today ;)

Cards on the table - I now work in IT and I'm doing my PPL with a local FBO and I will very likely do my IR and ME eventually (there are other weekend distractions here ... affordable golf and sailing spring to mind) but I seriously doubt that I will ever bother with a CPL now. This is not at all what I had in mind when I quit the casino - I was scheduled to start with an integrated UK FTO in May but pulled the plug at the last minute as I watched the clusterf:mad: getting worse and worse. As you can guess I'm pretty peeved with that but I like what I do now a whole lot better than before and I have a 15 minute commute instead of 2 hours into London. Seriously I think anyone who did not pull the plug this year or last is King Stupid, but most of them aren't old enough to realise it yet. I didn't have to borrow a cent but it would still have been a terrible call to go through with it.

[cjd_a320]

Those old poorly written economic "medical" text books by Samuelson need to be binned and replaced with Minsky.:8

[piky]

Quote."I've gone Chinese - I'm buying Gold on the dips."

So have I....Can't sell enough scrap metal to the far east, (China & lately Turkey..by the 100's of tonnes) thats why I packed in flying Jumbo's:ok:

regards
Piky(Barred again Piky no doubt):E

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Don't get me started on Minsky. I love the guy. He was and is SO right and the text books of the future will put him above Keynes if there is any justice.

Give me a financial market endogenous speculative investment bubble any day of the week.

Minsky claimed that in prosperous times, when corporate cash flow rises beyond what is needed to pay off debt, a speculative euphoria develops, and soon thereafter debts exceed what borrowers can pay off from their incoming revenues, which in turn produces a financial crisis. As a result of such speculative borrowing bubbles, banks and lenders tighten credit availability, even to companies that can afford loans, and the economy subsequently contracts.

I'm sad. Quite sad.


Economics - its like drugs, just never ever start.


WWW :ugh:

[Penguin68]

Those old poorly written economic "medical" text books by Samuelson need to be binned and replaced with Minsky

or Mystic Meg.

Most people who work in the city (and presumably WS too) become extremely cynical in time - you take your bonus and you look the other way - I did. Now I'm like the anti-smoking zealot who used to do 40-a-day ... and I left voluntarily (with over a year's pay for nowt). Only the interns or the people who really have no idea what is going on around them (back office, HR, IT) can stay 'true believers'. The casino is a pyramid scheme that works (most of the time) because of the supply of 'greater fools'. The quants applying gobbledigook maths to price structured deals have totally missed the point: something is only ever worth the price someone else is prepared to pay for it. So basically mark-to-model (aka mark-to-make-believe) businesses are intrinsically worthless. The other problem with the casino is that the interns and grad recruits are for the most part the most incredible puffed up bullsh*tters you will ever meet ... they are typically so arrogant that they assume everyone else already there doesn't know they're sh*tting ... its like they don't have the slightest idea what they don't know but they're strutting around like they're big swinging dicks.

I've also become extremely cynical about economics - or at least what it has become. Chasing non-existant holy grail equations that will reveal a generalised universal truth describing an intrinsically chaotic system that revolves around mass psychology is a waste of time and strikes me as being like theology: they'll both have gotten exactly nowhere 1000 years from now.

[spider_man]

The global airline industry faces $11 billion of losses this year, greater than previously forecast, as business travel remains in a slump and fuel prices are rising, the International Air Transport Association said Tuesday. The group expects airlines to lose $3.8 billion world-wide in 2010, as carriers struggle to generate revenue from their best customers, who either aren't flying or are buying cheaper tickets.
IATA sees premium passenger traffic falling 20% in 2009, compared with a 5% drop in traffic from the back of the cabin. The low demand for high-priced seats is expected to push yields, or revenue per passenger, down 12%.
Historically, it has been difficult to rebuild yields once they fall, Giovanni Bisignani, IATA's chief executive, said during a conference call with reporters. Following the last airline downturn, after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, it took the industry more than three years to claw back to 2000 revenue levels.
Now, the airline industry needs to make structural changes to regain its footing, Mr. Bisignani said. That includes more consolidation in the U.S. and Europe. Airlines also need to cut costs by using their hub airports more efficiently and investing in fuel-efficient aircraft, he said, adding that Airlines should keep pressing government officials for expanded "open skies" agreements to get past regulations that hamper global airlines' growth plans.
Near-term, Mr. Bisignani sees more airline bankruptcies, on top of nearly 50 resulting from the current recession. "In the last year-and-a-half, medium-sized airlines from all parts of the world" have fallen victim to the downturn, he said. IATA is now monitoring some 20 airlines with financial problems.
WSJ, 15 Sept-09

And...

IATA director general and CEO Giovanni Bisignani in a call with reporters today said, "We are in intensive care, and the crisis for us is not over."

Though IATA noted some improvement in passenger volumes as the year wore on—from a low of negative 11 percent is March—the airline association projected that overall passenger traffic this year would decline 4 percent. However, deeply discounted fares and depressed premium demand put airline yields on pace to fall 12 percent. As such, airline revenue is expected to fall 15 percent, or $80 billion, IATA projected.

"Even with better volume, we don't see industry revenue returning to 2008 levels until 2012 or 2013 at the earliest," Bisignani said. He noted that the industry, after its last major crisis following Sept. 11, 2001, "took roughly three-and-a-half years to recover those revenues," he said, "and let's remember that Sept. 11 was not a global crisis, it was a shock."

Weathering the storm, Bisignani said, comes down to airlines' ability to cut costs, improve efficiencies, cut capacity and preserve cash.

"Larger airlines have built up cash reserves of $15 billion in the past 10 months," Bisignani said. Of that, he said, $12 billion is in debt and $3 billion is in equity. "This is similar to a war chest to fight the crisis." Still, Bisignani noted that "some airlines have not been able to build up their reserves. They've relied on banks and banks are not lending," adding that means "we could see some more casualties in the coming months."

Bisignani was quick to note that the cost of fuel, though lower than it was a year ago, "is rising, and this could come back to bite us," stressing the importance for airlines to make strategic investments, chief among them more fuel-efficient aircraft. In the forecast, IATA projects oil to average $61 per barrel this year, up from the expected $56 per barrel in IATA's June outlook.



This is going to be one ugly winter!

[Grass strip basher]

I think it is bizarre that I now live in a communist country with a 16% tax rate and no potential for caps on how much I can earn in my profession.

Where as in the "land of the free" and the UK you are looking at 50% tax and caps on bonuses..... what a joke the UK has become after 10 years of Brown and his numpties..... and now China is accusing the US of unfair trade tariffs... the world has turned totally on its head!!!

As for sorting out the banking crisis almost all of the politicians STILL don't have a clue.... they are now just using it for political leverage rather than suggesting sensible solutions..... politicians = self-serving parasites..... you should not be allowed to be a career politician till you have been successful in another field first.... although I guess it is easier to blame all the mess on bankers than a society that is now morally and financially bankrupt.

Ooops gone off on one again... it just makes me made what a mess the UK is in and how little responsibility Brown has taken for his own roll in the financial crisis (eeerheeemm a decade as in No. 11!!)

P.S. the crisis is not just about bankers.... it is about certain parts of the global community that have borrowed to much and now can't repay what it owes.... the bankers have played a role but anyone who borrowed too much and can't repay it is MORE responsible for what has happened.

[Penguin68]

P.S. the crisis is not just about bankers.... it is about certain parts of the global community that have borrowed to much and now can't repay what it owes

thats a common republican talking point. blame the junkie - the pusher is just an honest enterprising capitalist. the mortgage brokers knew the loans could not be repayed, and told their clients how to lie on the application forms. the banks that securitised those mortgages knew and ignored it and took their cut. the investors (usually other banks) who bought the MBS ... well I can speak from personal experience that some of the traders involved were muppets not fit to run a tuck shop, the rest were pretty cynical and figured they could find a greater fool to unload them on at the top of the market - that'd be the aforementioned muppets. Problem was that the market was totally illiquid at the best of times - in fact the secondary market for non-agency MBS was virtually non-existent. But go ahead and blame the financially illiterate poor who had 'something for nothing' dangled in front of them by the mortgage brokers and realtors who told them they could get rich by flipping property with zero money down.

[Grass strip basher]

"blame the financially illiterate poor"... ah yes the poor helpless victims.... believing these people were innocent victims is exactly the sort of bollocks that has become socially acceptable to spout and that laid the foundations for this crisis.... what about taking responsibility for you own actions??! The people who borrowed beyond their means (driven by greed??) where not just the poor/illiterate.

I agree there were a lot of muppets involved in the MBS industry but people who borrowed too much are also at the heart of this problem.... saying they are victims rather than the majority who were just driven by greed and an "I want it now" culture is nonsense.

[Sciolistes]

P.S. the crisis is not just about bankers.... it is about certain parts of the global community that have borrowed to much and now can't repay what it owes
But isn't that the whole fundamental basis for all Western economies, without a boosted money supply, where there is more credit than money available to repay, there would be no economic expansion.

I'm not really sure what living in a near static economy would be like, I imagine it would involve lots and lots of poor people and very few relatively exceedingly rich people, with near zero socioeconomic mobility.

Recessions are an inseparable part of the process, the population doesn't understand this, governments are in denial and banks make hay whilst the sun shines...and when it doesn't.

[BoeingMEL]

Yep, do your PPL and enjoy flying as a satisfying recreation..just like your sailing. There will probably be plenty of guys out there with frozen ATPs willing to fill your Piper and clean your boat. So pleased I left the party when I was still enjoying it! And yes, this coming winter is going to be an unprecedented nightmare... and the following one will most likely be worse.:bored: Nonetheless, good luck to all. bm

[JB007]

Unemployment risen again today...now 2.47 Million out of work!

[Thick Blue Line]

Surely there is a two tier level of responsibility and accountability here.
The greed of the lenders and the greed and apathy of the consumer must be equally at fault. Credit has been all too easy to sell and all too easy to accept, and lets face it there is a large proportion of our society that simply doesn’t have the common sense, judgment or even basic understanding of personal finances and numeracy to understand the value of their money at all.

I don’t have a great understanding of economics but if, as I regularly read in news articles, there were people who ‘saw all this coming’ then why was there never a whistle blower? An independent watchdog of some sort to regulate the lending and the advertising of loans and credit agreements dangled to daytime TV viewers?

Vicious circle - lenders don’t care, consumers don’t care, government don’t care. :ugh:

In my opinion, the issues in this country run deeper. A growing lack of social values, disproportionate welfare state, poor education amongst young adults, third or fourth generation of kids growing up with role models who have never worked and a ruthless and cash-hungry media and economy.

Its going to get much worse before it gets better and I think there will be larger scale social unrest in the UK before long, although I really hope I am wrong.

On the plus side my student loan will be fully repaid by the end of the year - kerching! :ok:

[Bruce Wayne]

Penguin, have to agree with you too.. and appreciate the fact that not only were borrowers irresponsible, but also lenders were as well.

In many respects the lenders were also borrowers. However the 'Lenders' that were also 'borrowers' have risk analysts who determine the risks over what they are lending and what they are borrowing to lend.

In many cases the risk analysts were flatly ignored as the downside did not fit into continued bubble projections.

[Penguin68]

In many cases the risk analysts were flatly ignored

Don't I know it. The risk group warned our casino that the models were grossly understating our ABS book's VaR in 2006 because the timeseries we were using were becoming inappropriate - we wanted to change to the hyper-volatile ABX which would have put them way above limit and forced them to cut the position at the top of the market or hedge with ABX CDS. The muppet in charge of the desk argued that the illiquidity of the cash ABS market proved they couldn't lose any money and they were very happy with all the interest they were being paid on those 'risk free' mezz (BBB) ABS and CDOs. He said that the volatility of the ABX said precisely nothing about the cash market, and he took home a huge bonus in February 2007, while mine was cut presumably for rocking the boat. I was told several times by the MD that I was undermining my credibility by putting out stress test numbers every month that showed we could lose $30m in one month on a $400m ABS portfolio. In July 2007 it lost $30m. It did the same again in August. Within 6 months that casino was out of the prop trading business with a $1bn loss (90% at HQ in the ME ... and nearly all of that was lost on AAA a ABS/MBS/CDO portfolio so the Chairman blamed the rating agencies not the muppet traders or the greedy 'look the other way and take the bonus' bosses) and I was the only survivor of all the senior risk people in the London office. I asked to be let go on the same payoff terms as the rest and another six months later that happened.

One last word to the 'personal responsibility' brigade - and I do mean my last word because I'm not into internet flame wars: with all due respect, I think you are missing the point. The mortgage brokers knowingly encouraged and facilitated fraud. Sure, there were plenty of middle class flipmycondo.com type speculators who weren't stupid, rode the train and knew in advance they were going to walk away from the debts if the bets didn't pay off - certainly in the US & UK anyway, in many other countries (e.g. the Netherlands) that's not so easy to do. But there were also a lot of people at the bottom of the heap, particularly in the US with virtually no education (finanicial or otherwise) who were suckered in by more knowledgeable and greedy 'pushers' for their personal gain, not their dumb clients' gain. What does caveat emptor mean to someone who was a dunce at school? Surely the far greater responsibility is on those who facilitated the fraudulent applications and the casinos who securitised them, not least because they were also knowingly defrauding their shareholders for personal financial gain. Oh, and BTW they unwittingly destabilised the entire world economy, not least the airline industry. Given that you're on this board, aren't you negatively affected in any way? Doesn't law enforcement typically target the pusher more than the junkie? - is that wrong also?

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Penguin68 - you were really in the eye of the strom then. Interesting place to be at an interesting time in history. Write a book - future generations will be interested..


I agree with your view on the morality, causation and blame. I would add that the senior Politicans are also to blame. Ultimately we pay them to make sure the systems and regulators protect the little guy just a little bit.


WWW

[Penguin68]

there is a large proportion of our society that simply doesn’t have the common sense, judgment or even basic understanding of personal finances and numeracy to understand the value of their money at all.

Which is why the responsibility lies with the pushers and the champions of financial deregulation who facilitated the pushers. You might as well blame your cat/dog/hamster instead of the moronic credit junkies - they're equally witless.

[Bruce Wayne]

www

I really don't know if future generations would be interested.. Come a few years from now we will enter another bubble based on overinflated values in XYZ market and new financial models that show a crash and risk is unlikely.

Go figure !

the predictions you yourself have mad are not down to channelling, or some divine message from above but consideration of historical basis (yes, I do read your posts!) likewise the involvement of people like penguin who as risk analysts analyse the risk !

Go figure !

Having been involved in debt recovery from aviation based assets I have seen the most heinous debts that investors have confronted in certain assets, based on biased information.

Take for example in 2005 a 747SP with an exec interior (yes that one). that an investor was in for a considerable sum, based on a financial projection and model, which was to all an intents false.

Looking at recovering some 2.5 million for an SP airframe with no engines a garbage interior and out of date avionics was never going to happen, it was worth not even a 10th of that figure.

The investor was burned in a big way on that having bought the aircraft complete and the engines sold off; I know who made big time on that, it wasn't the party that carried the financial liability.

That was based on false information and the risk being buried; The resultant factor is that someone ended up with an asset that was worth no where near the value it was projected at.

To intents and purposes this was appropriating funds against an asset with incorrect, moreover even fraudulent data.

The result of many transactions like this that went on leaves a lot of debt on books with no hope of ever reclaiming a significant portion of the debt back, which now results in finance against aviation based assets very lairy across the board and a lot of debt that can only be written off, not even down.

Right now, you have new aircraft out of the factory and finance companies wanting to see up to 30% in the aircraft before they will even consider finance.

[Penguin68]

Write a book - future generations will be interested

If I was at a big casino (failed or otherwise) I probably would but the story of the downfall of a cruddy little camel-shop isn't going to sell.

I totally agree that ultimately it is top level pols who are to blame. They create the framework in which everyone does their thing, and they let the dogs loose. Hard won lessons from the past were forgotten. Both sides of the aisle on both sides of the atlantic are implicated because it was going on over a period of 30 years in which everyone had a turn in power and a chance to make a difference.:(

[Grass strip basher]

Penguin68 not doubt what you witnessed in a segment of the US mortgage market was true but it is just a piece in the puzzle. Banking is like engineering, there are many many different aspects to it. And you would persecute all for the faults of what in the big picture were a minority of bankers? (of which you were one... lets not forget that whilst you are preaching... have you given all your I'll gotten gains to help the homeless charities yet?).

It sticks in the throat that someone from a risk management team working in the MBS/ABS market should be busy spounting off about what was wrong with the system.... shame you didn't stand up and take responsility 3/4 years ago.... no wander you are not an advocat of personal responsibility given your own small role in the affair.

The UK mortgage market model is very very different to the US.... and yet we ended up in the same mess. In many European markets (e.g. Spain & Ireland) the securitisation markets were in their infancy and yet they are in a worse state than the US and UK.... how does that work if the sole blame for this crisis lies with a small number of ABS/MBS traders?? What about the mess the CMBS market is in.... was commercial real estate pushed on to poor unsuspecting finacially illiterate no hopers as well??

A the heart of this crisis is greed plain and simple.... not just bankers but society as a whole. To blame the entire crisis on a bunch of traders is political brain washing. :=

Rant over (again)

[Penguin68]

You are making a few assumptions that are false. My casino traded virtually everything, not specifically US RMBS, and we didn't securitise mortgages. Thanks to the fear of being left behind and the mass pimping of property on UK TV , UKRMBS aren't significantly less crappy, they just talk about non conforming loans instead of Alt-A and subprime, and BTW we didnt have ANY of that - EVERYTHING tanked - IMO the entire asset class is garbage predicated on naive assumptions of low default correlation, but that is an entirely different subject - there was a panic induced stampede for the exit. CMBS were not considered a different class, I just didnt mention then specifically - we had plenty in the book and they tanked as well - it has not just recently happened, whatever you heard elsewhere, and yes their investors can still be victims of asymetric information, or they can be muppet traders in which case the shareholders are the victim and FFS dont tell me they should know because they don't - stuff gets hidden OBS. We did package some GBP and EUR ABS/MBS into CDOs, but mostly we bought other people's crap, and as I said about using different risk factors and about the stress tests, I did warn them and I was not alone in doing so. I did not cover that desk specifically, we were too small a shop for that - I covered everything they did. As far as I am concerned I did what I could in that environment to protect the bank and I won't be handing back any 'ill gotten gains' to the al-Saud family.

The blame does not lie with a small number of traders and I didn't say it does. It wasn't a minority of banks involved in the ABS mania - it was virtually all of them - if not as originators, then as investors. Practically the entire financial industry viewed securitisation to be a risk free gold rush - after all, you could ultimately reposess the asset, right? ... if it is worth anything. It was the madness of a crowd slavering at the prospect of big personal payoffs, which blinded them to the systemic risk.

Unless you have worked in that environment where traders & their bosses fixate entirely and solely on this year's bonus I dont think you can really appreciate that the perverse incentive structure undermined the entire financial industry by encouraging short term gambling instead of well thought out investment. Nobody cared if what they bought this year and made a mint on blew up on January 1st. The core point is that the without the deregulation that allowed real banks (i.e. ones in retail and commercial deposit taking/lending) to act like the casinos, it would not have mattered one bit if it all blew up. Mine was purely a casino and the world will barely notice if it completely folds (it was recapitalised). The same cannot be said of HBOS, Citi. Deregulation is 'wot dun it'.

FYI we also traded coporate and sovereign debt (cash and CDS) including emerging markets, vanilla IR derivatives, commodities, equity and FX. Just to set the record straight.

[Penguin68]

if it looks too good to be true, it definately is

the first time I had CDOs explained to me (04?) I had exactly that thought.

[Penguin68]

Just one more thing ... for the most part the mid-noughties vintage mortgages left on the books of most UK banks are the ones that they couldn't securitise, i.e. the worst of the lot. The government only worked that out after they nationalised Northern Crock.

In a very indirect way the lovely Kirstie Allsopp helped to do to the taxpayer what I always wanted to do to her :ok:

[Grass strip basher]

The mortgage and securitisation markets in the UK and US are very different.... for one the UK banks were made to hold on to a significant amount of the first loss tranch of their securitised mortgage books.... typically 1-2% of the loan balances... indeed most of the actually economic risk (NRK's Whinestone transaction was created to sell some of this down risk.... the only vehicle in the UK to do this I believe).. in the US this was not the case... this is a big difference in terms of the business you were prepared to write.

You are not the only one that had a front row seat to this s**tshow and as for.. "traders & their bosses fixate entirely and solely on this year's bonus I dont think you can really appreciate that the perverse incentive structure undermined the entire financial industry by encouraging short term gambling instead of well thought out investment"... that says more about your organisation than anything else... the vast majority of MBS/ABS are not owned by trading desks believe it or not but by investment funds with a longer term objective and different incentive structures.

Anyway enough willy waving and throwing around abbreviations. The net result is the same... people have borrowed too much... how it is packaged/carved up on bank balance sheets as loans, ABS/MBS, CDOs etc etc it is all debt at the end of the day and if someone (i.e. Mr consumer) does not repay it it results in a loss.... all roads lead to a greedy consumer who wanted it all and couldn't pay the bill for the party.

[BitMoreRightRudder]

I think there will be larger scale social unrest in the UK before long, although I really hope I am wrong.



I hope you are wrong too, but I think you will be proved correct.

Unemployment cruising past the 4 million mark just as the inevitable swathing cuts in public spending are taking place under our forthcoming Etonian Old Boys Government?

Could be interesting..............

[Penguin68]

for one the UK banks were made to hold on to a significant amount of the first loss tranch

made? they wanted to do it. we wanted to do it on our CDOs and did. if the structure doesn't tank the equity tranche is a goldmine - you own the pool at the bottom of the waterfall. the early ones we did paid for themselves in no time. they were EUR denominated and pan-eurozone in terms of what went into them. it doesn't matter what currency or what underlying market you are talking about.

[ba038]

This thread should be called "growing evidence that the downturn is still with us". (and at this rate should stay with us till the foreseeable future).

[Grass strip basher]

If they wanted to hang on to it then why Whinestone?? The reason they went down the securitisation route was for capital relief to introduce more leverage into the balance sheet + tap another funding market, nothing to do with evil MBS/ABS trading desks and multi-million pound bonuses you alude to.... how much do you think someone on the treasury team at NRK based in Newcastle got paid??! The fact is they held on to the first loss tranch... so still had a vested interest in the performance of the underlying mortgages.... the US mortgage brokers didn't.

Anyway this is getting very boring and 99% of the folks on this board won't give a s**t or understand all the abbreviations etc you have been spouting.... at the end it is still about too much debt... not who hangs on to what... it is the over levered consumer on the street where the trail to who is responsible stops.... but you can't blame him/her... he is just stupid... (or is that being patronising??)... and of course votes.:yuk:

[Penguin68]

So wrong on so many levels. I find it interesting that the last Tory chancellor, the amiable and eminently pragmatic Ken Clarke agrees with me that the UK banks need to quit their casino habit - or in his own words: "go back to being boring". Just one thing though - since he was in the government that deregulated the financial services sector, perhaps you should write to him suggesting that he should give some of his ill gotten gains to homeless charities.

Over here the left wants to blame it all on Bush, since it happened on his shift. The right wants to blame it on Obama (elected after the event) or on Rubin & Clinton who sat on their hands while Citi paid Phil Gramm (R-TX btw) to finish off Glass-Steagall. Naturally, the Daily Mail agenda is to blame it on the Islington Politburo because it happened on their shift, and after all, they did reshuffle the regulators to look more like a cozy focus group. I'm not giving any of the above a pass at all, but none of them are as personally responsible for either the idea or implementation of financial deregulation as their 80s predecessors. Of course, that doesn't fit into the Daily Mail worldview at all. So lets blame someone else, eh?

--------

Since the ABS market (except the Fannie/Freddie 'agency' stuff) was always so illiquid that there was virtually no secondary market, the rationale for ABS investors was the same regardless of whether they are a casinobank, a hedge fund, or a traditional asset manager. Nobody 'traded' them in the usual sense of the word until after the crunch. Before the crunch you bought and you held. You did it because you were getting paid a comparatively good rate of interest on a supposedly risk free asset in an era of very low interest rates. You did not expect to make a capital gain - the prices just didn't move. The only place you could get a quote from to do your monthly mark was the originator - there were no market makers. In most cases if you did want to sell you sold it back to them and they shopped it to someone else who got less than they asked for in the initial allocation feeding frenzy. After the cruch there are vulture funds around run by savvy traders who will buy them from you at a price that will make your shareholders/investors cry, but does reflect the real risk in the structure.

On the other side, there are 2 reasons to be a 'securitizer', if that isn't too much of a Bushism.

1. The textbook says the guy with the AAA tranche gets paid first from the interest pool but he doesn't. You do. As the lead manager you have what is effectively the 'last risk piece' - so long as there is enough interest still coming to cover the admin costs you are quids in for at least 5-7 years when the deal clean up call might come into play if enough of the loans have been repaid. It doesnt matter a jot if some or all of the investors lost their shirt, you are still getting paid. I know a few people who still have their jobs solely for that reason - they're 'managing' the wreckage of CDOs they put together. Now that is a risk free play.

2.
(a) you are a retail or commercial lender. lets say for the sake of argument a UK bankasino, but you could equally be down the street from me in FL. In ye olde days you took deposits from x y and z and you lent to a b and c at twice the rate. Boring! Not much chance for a big bonus there. Later on you worked out that thanks to the usual shape of the yield curve you could borrow for LIBOR + peanuts for 1 month, keep rolling that over, lend the same amount as 25 year mortgages and make hundreds of bps for nothing. Bonus!!! What could go wrong? :E The problem is that with my finite capital there's only so much of this that I can put on my balance sheet because of the dreadful nanny state. And I sooo wanted that new Aston Martin that I saw in the Daily Mail. If only they allowed me to take more personal responsibility I could make a fortune. Wait a minute, I have an idea. If I securitise the mortgages on my books I can flog them off, getting them off my balance sheet and then start all over again. Every time I get paid a juicy managers fee (see part 1. above) regardless of what happens. As an added bonus I can keep the really juicy equity tranche. I structured the deal in such a way that there's more than enough interest left over after the investors have been paid their 'LIBOR + a bit'. In 18-24 months all that excess interest will add up to more than my equity investment, yes there wil be a few defaults but its the mid-noughties, default rates are low and when I reposess those properties they'll have gone up in value and I'll make another killing. Oooh, I can see the bonus now!!! Does anyone know the phone number for Sunseeker?

(b) you are a Wall Street Casino, or maybe you are Countrywide. You know that a lot of those condo mortgages you just bought from that personally responsible ex-bankster-turned-broker in Hallandale Beach are going to blow up, starting real soon. You just don't care. You know that you are going to get paid your management fee and that the saps that you offload the 'LIBOR + a bit more' tranches onto are taking the risk. Happily, there are hedge funds out there with a massive risk appetite who specialise in buying up equity tranches. All I have to do is haggle and discount it a bit for them, but the fees I'm creaming off the top of the structure will soon add up to more than the discount, and I'll be completely risk free.

THAT is how it worked. Alan Greenspan believed that in a completely free market businessmen would behave responsibly because they were concerned about their reputation above all else. He might as well have believed in Jedi magic. The reality was that after deregulation of the financial markets, competitive pressure distilled not the best practise like the theory said it would, but the worst - the shysters rose to the top, and the rest adopted their behaviour in order to compete and get their shareo of the pot. It wasn't just my casino - or even just the casinos and bankasinos. Look at AIG. S&Ls anyone? Enron? ...

Once very last point. There is a lot of consumer debt out there, far too much. But it is a tiny pinprick compared to the outstanding liabilities of the players in the derivatives market - now over 1 quadrillion dollars. I think that's a million billion. What's their capital base by comaprison? Its like putting up a fish finger as the deposit on a new D-JET. Where is the personal responsibility in the financial markets?

I'm done. I will do what I usually do and dissapear from this thread for a couple of weeks.

[RoyHudd]

I loved the idiotic title of this thread, and feel sad that the debate on today's reality may have finished.

For what it's worth, my view is that bmi/bmir/bmibaby are all finished, at least in their present forms. One ageing male diva unloaded his primary business interest at a time most profitable to himself, which was utterly predictable. (Sod his workers!) When the 3 companies eventually disappear below the waves, there might actually be room in the UK market for some pilot job creation. And no, this is not sour grapes from my side. Nor wishful thinking.

Finally, best of luck to WWW. (The sage of Pprune)

[AngryBaby]

Could have fooled me Roy, seems like you are taking pleasure in everyones predicament here at BD, not just here but elsewhere. What a strange post to make on this thread for wannabees. How on earth could the disappearance of BD below the waves possibly make room for pilot recruitment, could you explain that for me? Why dont you just look after the hernia and get on with your own thing. bmi is finished for you at least.

[RoyHudd]

No fooling. bmi gave me 2 pushes on commercial grounds, many others too. Then offered me a left-seat at baby on different T & C's from LHR. With no thought to my ethical new employers. As a company, bmi showed immature behaviour. Most of us offered returns told them to stick it.

Now we fly with temp bmi lads pathetically grateful to be part of us....so much better than bmi....they all wish to stay...but sadly no chance.

The problems lie in the bmi management, who just line their pockets and shaft the staff. A group of underperformers.

End result...not positive, esp in a recession.

No sour grapes, but sorry for the mates still stuck there.

Good enough for you, Mr. Aggressive? Have a most happy time.

[heli_port]

British Airways is going where only failures have gone before. Three London to New York business class only airlines have already collapsed - Silverjet, Maxjet, Eos - hit by rising oil prices. BBC NEWS | Business | BA's new business class only plane (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8279408.stm) ... yeah the upturn is here ;)

[x933]

Bit of journalistic license on that one. KLM and Swissair have been doing it for a while with Privatair.

That has outraged environmentalists, who say each traveller will be responsible for about three times the emissions of regular flights.

Uh. Okay. So the same as if Ryanair/Flybe/Anyone else operate a flight 30% full? The double decker bus I came to work on only had 8 people on it, so I guess that makes me responsible for xx times the emmissions?

[Cirrus_Clouds]

New IMF data: IMF: Global recession over and UK to grow | This is Money (http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/news/article.html?in_article_id=491366&in_page_id=2&ct=5)

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

The 1990's recession which caused >3m unemployed and saw several large airlines go bust in the UK lasted for 2 quarters. This one is started in the last 2 quarters of 2008 and is still running now... Its already a much bigger and longer lasting recession than we have seen for three generations. And that's if it ended today.

With interest rates held where they are and £150,000,000,000 of newly printed money being pumped into the system I'd be amazed if the recession didn't end soon. But don't think that means everything goes back to normal. The bombing may have stopped but the city is still in ruins..


WWW

[A and C]

So what should the wannabe do now?

Background

The UK airline industry is still in a bad way however I see that some smaller company's are being quick off the mark to take advantage of lower lease rates on aircraft & the inertia of the bigger airlines who have (over?) reacted late to the market down turn.

Some employers are clearly trying to take advantage of the situation with talk of bases closing & pilots laid off, I think that this is a bit rich for at least one airline that is having crewing problems. Oh and this stance comes as the pay reveiw approches.

The time is not yet right for airlines to come knocking on the doors of the wanabes but the list of those from Zoom, Silverjet & XL who are out of work is getting shorter.

Wannabe action plan

Don't get sucked in by the glossy publicity and pictures of young people looking happy standing on the steps of airliners with South American military quantitys of gold braid. These are the people who have copped onto the fact that the wannabe is going to pay to sit in the (second) best seat on the aircraftand are going to charge a fortune for this "oportunity".
The market is not ready for this and won't be for two to three years minimum. Life would be so much better in the long run if all of you kept well clear of these money sucking parasites.

It might be the time to think about a very slow move towards a modular (f)ATPL, training prices are keen but DO NOT give up the day job and DO NOT borrow the money, at this stage play only with real cash that is yours (as always not more than £500 up front).
Slow forward movement is the name of the game with the aim of being ready to do the IR in about three years. If the market shows that it is picking up then borrowing a little money might be in order to quicken the pace but this won't be for two to three years and hopfully you will have done most of the trainning by then.

It should put you ahead of the market without exposing you to too much debt and you will still have a job if the market is slow off the mark.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

I can go along with that.

WWW

[A and C]

WWW agreeing with me! time to sit in a dark room with a large brandy.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Here, have a cigar!


;)


WWW

[Cirrus_Clouds]

A & C, that's my plan and doing/living it right now and still making progress towards that dream. Btw hello, I think you know who I am. :-) :ok:

[redsnail]

NetJets Europe just culled 18% of it's office staff in Lisbon and London. :(

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Aer Lingus underlines woes facing airlines with 600 job cuts - Telegraph (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/transport/6267934/Aer-Lingus-underlines-woes-facing-airlines-with-600-job-cuts.html)


Oooh, its starting to feel like the good old days again for this thread.. :(


WWW

[FlyBoyFryer]

I take it yesterday's news from BA was covered?

BBC NEWS | Business | British Airways to cut 1,700 jobs (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8293536.stm)

You're a terrible influence WWW! ;)

[irishpilot1990]

Can the moderators delete this thread....as there is no signs of upturn...or can we at least change the title to signs we are still in between a rock and a hard place?!:ugh::oh:

[redsnail]

The thread title is supposed to be ironical. ;)

[MEL CAT C]

Wannabe action plan

Don't get sucked in by the glossy publicity and pictures of young people looking happy standing on the steps of airliners with South American military quantitys of gold braid. These are the people who have copped onto the fact that the wannabe is going to pay to sit in the (second) best seat on the aircraftand are going to charge a fortune for this "oportunity".
The market is not ready for this and won't be for two to three years minimum. Life would be so much better in the long run if all of you kept well clear of these money sucking parasites.

It might be the time to think about a very slow move towards a modular (f)ATPL, training prices are keen but DO NOT give up the day job and DO NOT borrow the money, at this stage play only with real cash that is yours (as always not more than £500 up front).
Slow forward movement is the name of the game with the aim of being ready to do the IR in about three years. If the market shows that it is picking up then borrowing a little money might be in order to quicken the pace but this won't be for two to three years and hopfully you will have done most of the trainning by then.

It should put you ahead of the market without exposing you to too much debt and you will still have a job if the market is slow off the mark.


With regards to paying for the "oportunity". Sadly the days of full sponsorship are well behind us, which is something i am very sad to see. But having been on an interview board for a UK airline I am fully aware that airlines, and sadly students, need to get real. The cost of integrated training is very high indeed. But some airlines,not mine but at least one large UK regional, still offer part sponsorship to students. True this may only put a dent into the financial punch that will be recieved by student and family, but that is what i would hold out for right now.

I have been a pilot/QFI/FI(a)/F/O then Capt and TRI/E. Now just in the last couple of years of my career. Light hopefully at end of tunnel! Pension over years has been screwed around with but hey, i'm not alone there right? I have watched this site on and off for the last few years, but only now do I get a 'log in' as I can not stand to see the rubbish posted by some people.
My advice to wannabes. Hang on, save up, look for airline part sponsored of affiliated courses and look to train somewhere that has a good reputation and lots of airline backing! I have seen several modular students lack even the basic elements or airmanship and handling skills, not to mention situational awareness in the sim checks. Not all are bad, some are indeed very good, but it would not suprise me if they had a natural high aptitude! How some passed their IRT with the CAA is beond me! Many modular training routes are cheaper, but they want your money just as badly! Somethimes withot even giving you an assesment of your suitability for the course!
On the other side of the course the candidates from integrated courses tend to do a lot better. Not all pass the sim check still, but the percantage is much higher. why? Well they are traied to a known standard and can demonstate their skills to myself when undertaking a basic profile in the sim check. When I pause after giving them several climbs, decents, and vectors with one or two nav aids tuned, i ask them to point on the radar minimums chart to where we are in the sky. Almost all get it right first time. We can even tell, during type conversion courses where an individual trained! The integrated route is expensive, but they do select you and test you to see if you will be able to see the course through and look attractive to airlines at the end of your 14-18 months. The modular route is sketchy and pilots from the route tend not to have any consistancy in ability,usually due to training at various locations,with diferent styles and techniques being demonstated. Sadly to the detrement of the candidate in the sim during the interview stages. Having also been an FI i would advise anyone serious on doing an integrated route not to spend lots of momey on a PPL. By all means do some flying lessons or trial flight to see if you enjoy being in the air, and in a small training aircraft. However bad habits learnt from some dodgy PPL instructors will leave you struggling a little, or maybe a lot, when conducting your 'professional' flying training. The integrated route has, and rightly so,a steep learning curve. You want to ideally be learning for the first time, not 'unlearning' then relearning something done differently, or correctly! consistency in training is vital!

At the end of the day you have to do what is right for you and what you are happy with, regardless of what I or anyone else writes on this site! My nepthew is very keen to take up flying as a career and I can't seem to put him off it. In fact the harder I try the more he wants it! I went to the Flyer?? exhibition at Heathrow earlier in the year. I was suprised just how many schools and airlines were there! He ended up with a great deal of information for the various schools and airlines, a lot of info all in one place. I was sceptical at first but on seeing the exhibition i was impressed.
I would advise people serious on going to atten if and when it is next on.My advise to him is also to wait it out until new courses appear. But each to their own.

Anyway thats my two pennys. Happy landings and best of luck to all.

[A and C]

The news from both BA & Aer Lingus is an example of the inertia of big companys, just like oil tankers they take a long time to change direction.

The actions of these companys has far more to do with history and the people who have managed through internal politics and union pressure to unbalance the resopnsability/pay balance.

BA cabin crew are a prime example with some of the older CSD's taking home more money than some flight crew and two to three times as much as the Licenced engineers maintaning the aircraft.

The industry simply cant afford the luxury of the £60,000 p/a cabin crew and no doubt equaly overpaid backroom "management". So I think that you will find that these are the people who will take the brunt (if not all) of the cuts.

The view for the pilots & engineers is looking far brighter in the long term and even in the short term is not too bad with one or two smaler and more agile company's expanding in a buyers market for leasing aircraft.

[pipertommy]

So when do you think we will see start ups/expansion appearing to fill the gaps of lost airlines routes from the recession?

[A and C]

It's happening now, with one new player ar Gatwick and another based airline going into the Airbus market.

[pipertommy]

Thanks for the reply:)

[flying_shortly]

Personally, I think the recession couldn't have come at a better time for B.A. and Aer Lingus. Both seem to have managers in there now that aren't afraid to give the place a rattle and with the recession hopefully the unions will be a little more cooperative and less blood sucking than they normally are and see that what's good for business is good for jobs in the long run.....

Well done to Willie and Christoff if you ask me!

[A and C]

I agree with some of what you say but I would not want to turn this forum into a union bashing political bun fight. Some unions have had a policy of reasonable conduct over the past twenty to thirty years (some might say too reasonable at times) while others have not.

Inside BA the pilot & engineering unions have always been very moderate and understand the dire situation that the airline is in and are acting accordingly. However you don't have to go much further than the cabin crew forum to find people who just don't see what is going on in the real world.

I fear that that a lot of very skilled people are going to be out of work because of the very short sighted actions of the very well paid (semi-skilled) cabin crew.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

You are kidding me right? Lingus are talking about making pilots redundant. Out the door. On the dole - looking for a flying job. For Wannabes that only means more mighty fierce competition.

As I pointed out repeatedly further back on this very thread - then ending of recession is cold comfort. Airlines tend to go bust months and years after the recession ends. The unemployment peak is more significant the the technicalities of absolute GDP growth or decline.

We're not at the worst stage yet. After that is passed airlines will be at their most vulnerable. Only last night I was talking to the General Secretary of BALPA in the pub and he was talking about redundancies in the offing at a large Charter airline, Monarch have said 40 need to go, Virgin have 70+ on unpaid leave, BA have been offering voluntary redundancy, Lingus are getting desperate and the future for BMI is highly uncertain. It wasn't a comfortable discussion.

This is pretty bad already and it will continue to get worse until after unemployment peaks then falls for six months in a row, i.e. a sustained recovery in jobs. Airlines can limp on losing money for a suprisingly long time. But there will be failures. Wannabe prospects remain grim.

Don't fall for it.

You'll be sorry.


WWW

[spinnaker]

With interest rates held where they are and £150,000,000,000 of newly printed money being pumped into the system I'd be amazed if the recession didn't end soon. But don't think that means everything goes back to normal. The bombing may have stopped but the city is still in ruins..
The only thing that has made the figure look good is government stimulus. I can find little evidence of the economy generating its own growth that pulls us out of recession.

When the stimulus runs out, its down to the real economy, and I fear that it is still not robust enough even to sustain the weak growth shown in some countries. Ultimately, the government, any government, has limits as to how much intervention and support it can give to any one economy. The bad debt that created this mess is still there, but more worryingly, as economies have faltered, that in itself has created more bad debt from areas that were previously considered low risk. Just to pile on the agony, as if we don't have enough already, the only way for interest rates is up, eventually. Tax will go up sooner rather than later, and government spending and the state will most definitely contract by a huge amount. That is going to be an awful lot of money taken out of the economy. Despite what the papers say, the holiday industry as a whole is in steep decline, and that includes the home market. As for business travel? I'm getting phone calls every day from companies wanting to book into my B+B at a discount, despite a local hotel charging less per night than what I do. I have no room at the inn, and wont trade at a loss, so doors shut for now. Instead I supply the local hotel with fresh meat and eggs, and put the prices up to compensate for lost earnings in other areas. The corporate dick heads just don't get it, there is no free lunch or accommodation.

As www pointed out, unemployment peaks after a recession, not before or at the same time, that's why life is going to still be a bummer for everyone when the sun newspaper reports no more recession. Journos are another bunch of dick heads that don't get it.

[flying_shortly]

I heard they're looking for voluntary redundancy amongst the pilots.... So, hopefully they'll be rid of ridiculously highly paid captains... I say that's the plan... Streamline the businnes model. I heard one training captain is on 400K!!! Imagine how many seats they'd have to sell to cover his behind!

If anything, for wanabees, like myself I'm glad to see Aer Lingus adapt and change. If they're successful when things pick up hopefully they'll make big moves into the British and European markets to compete against Easy and complement Ryan in that EI could do major airports/city link ups where Ryan wouldn't... I'm sure that's what Ryan want given their 25% stake...

[Norman Stanley Fletcher]

flying_shortly - I do not know where you heard of a Training Captain earning £400k but can you PM me to tell me where to apply! If such a person exists, I have never heard of him - he sounds like an urban myth to me!

[TheBeak]

He is an urban myth from Leo Hairy Camel. Flying Shortly, you have your opinion but it isn't justified or explained, it is hoped for and is extremely wishful thinking. The purpose of the redundancies is to lean back resource in order to improve efficiencies.

The ultimate result? In the future, recruitment but on far worse Ts and Cs.

You talk like you'd be perfectly happy flying anything regardless of the money on offer. Well either:

1.Your family are happy enough supporting you and any of your dependants whilst you go and enjoy your life flying planes for a living. (or so you think you will).

2. You are quite happy making your dependents be the providers/ live on the bread line so that you can go and enjoy your life flying planes for a living. (or so you think you will).

People who continue to take great pleasure/content in current/ past pilots being made redundant are the types who would be perfectly happy with payscales for a320/737 of the following it would seem:

Fo (less than 500 Hours) - £17000 - £20000
Fo (more than 500 hours) - £21000 - £27000
Captain - £29000 - £36000

With an extra £1000 for being a TRE/TRI!

You talk like you side with the airline management with your 'get the expensive pilots out and pay us much less talk' and your:

Well done to Willie and Christoff if you ask me!

You try living on the above salaries, which people like you are the route cause of, with a £100K debt. It is impossible - you'll be making minus money. And you try getting a mortgage ever. This is madness. I won't compete when people like this are willing to work at this level.

Is this really what you want Flying Shortly et al? Out with the last remaining proof of our worth and in with the next bunch of little arse wipes who are solely focussed on their short term desire to be in a job 'that they love'?

[A and C]

A very long detailed and subjective first post, being only a mear line captain who has to fly with the "product" of the pilot sausage machine I find the quality of young FO's to be mostly satisfactory whatever the route that they took to get to the right seat and the very few less talented ones have largley come from the integrated courses (the very best one was from a modular course and she was very good). To the best of my recolection the company had only one failure at the simulator stage and I cant remember the source of that student.

So as a line captain I can't slide a cigarette paper between the two groups as a whole on quality grounds but what I do see is one group that has £20-30,000 more debt to pay off.

So perhaps you will see why I think that the integrated route very much the Rolls-Royce way to go and that at the start of the career prehaps it is best to get to the destination in a Ford KA.

[ricky81 sti]

Hi all,

I have been reading through the many pages of up's and down's and i'm wondering what the general thoughts are on getting a job having obtained a fATPL in a couple of years time, so basically early 2012 for job hunting?

Luckily i have the funds to complete my training (probably integrated) without having to go to the bank so sitting with £70k debt thankfully won't be one of my worries. I have been scanning through pilot recruitment sites and unless you have 500/1000/2000+ hours no one wants to know you which is quite off putting before i even start.

I've wanted to fly since i was at school and i've worked hard over the past few years to build up the funds to do what i've always wanted to do. I've been taking a few hours PPL in the past year as well as ATPL revision to help me into the swing of things and i'm loving it, i just don't wanna miss the boat and look back in 15 years and wish i'd taken the bull by the horns and went through with it.

Any thoughts would be welcome:ok:

[acuba 290]

@ricky81 sti (http://www.pprune.org/members/216462-ricky81-sti)

on your place I would go for it, if money is not a factor. But go modular, much more fun and less expensive ;)

[Horse.....Fly]

I've been reading this thread and thought that this might be of interest to some people who have posted:

BBC NEWS | Business | UK rates 'to stay low for years' (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8301418.stm)

Cheers.

[Finals19]

For all the companies that are suffering, are there not other,much better positioned companies that are waiting on the side lines to move in and take the business? I am talking about the likes of FR, EZY and notably Flybe? Flybe have a very lean business model on an aircraft that only takes 24% of total operating cost and yet fits the regions / commuter profile very well indeed.

It appears that they somewhat anticipated turbulent times ahead and rationalised their fleet when they could. Bombardier quote an average seat fill of 55% capacity to cover operating cost. Surely (without emulating other threads) these types of operation are where the employment will lie in the (near) future?

[SkyRocket10]

We're not at the worst stage yet. After that is passed airlines will be at their most vulnerable. Only last night I was talking to the General Secretary of BALPA in the pub and he was talking about redundancies in the offing at a large Charter airline, Monarch have said 40 need to go, Virgin have 70+ on unpaid leave, BA have been offering voluntary redundancy, Lingus are getting desperate and the future for BMI is highly uncertain. It wasn't a comfortable discussion.

This is pretty bad already and it will continue to get worse until after unemployment peaks then falls for six months in a row, i.e. a sustained recovery in jobs. Airlines can limp on losing money for a suprisingly long time. But there will be failures. Wannabe prospects remain grim.

To add some positive news to this otherwise depressing thread- BA have indicated in the latest internal flight ops news that based on current projections, recruitment is likely to start again late next year.

[Honiley]

WWW's post #3201 is a good indication, although Monarch have come to a financial agreement with the management to save jobs. This winter is going to be tough - it's looking very likely that Thomson Airways will dump up to 100pilots onto the market early in the new year!

I wouldn't get the bunting out just yet!

H

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

The Thomson rumour was one I haven't been able to substantiate. Is it looking likely that they'll stop carrying the excess flightdeck numbers?

WWW

[Jonty]

I understood the Thomson guys took a pay cut to save those jobs. If the management are now saying they are taking the pay cut and still dumping the pilots, then all is not sweetness and light at TUI.

[ba038]

Heard a rumor today that Thomson may lose up to 80 pilots....:uhoh:
(Even though pay-cuts were accepted)

[A and C]

I think that we have the managment of some airlines playing games to keep staff in line, They are pushing the gloom & doom line so as to get a better deal for the company.

Some would say that their job is to get the best deal for the shareholders, but what goes around comes around, just remember the way they treat the staff. When the upturn comes we will see them wringing their hands and complaning about the pilots lack of company loyalty!

[heli_port]

After talking to a bod in TUI the 80 figure seems a little low... People who continue to take great pleasure/content in current/ past pilots being made redundant are the types who would be perfectly happy with payscales for a320/737 of the following it would seem: Fo (less than 500 Hours) - £17000 - £20000 Fo (more than 500 hours) - £21000 - £27000 Captain - £29000 - £36000 With an extra £1000 for being a TRE/TRI! I'd be happy with that! We all have to realise that the good times have gone. Those with families etc will find it hardest to adapt. Heathrow counts cost of disappearing business passengers The number of business passengers using Heathrow, the world’s busiest international airport, fell by 5 per cent last year, according to the annual survey of passengers by the Civil Aviation Authority (CAA). The numbers dropped by 1.2 million to 22.8 million, just over a third of the total number of all passengers. Heathrow counts cost of disappearing business passengers - Times Online (http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/transport/article6880205.ece)

[heli_port]

The worry with the ecomony is still not over. China maybe growing at a record pace but it's using stimulus money to achieve growth thus creating a bubble and we all know what happens to financial bubbles. Secondly the stock market has got ahead of itself, FTSE is up 50 points today (oil is hovering ~ $80) and our economy is still contracting. I understand the stock market can be quite boyant during a recession but this is ridiculous futher adding to my fears that we will again see a big sharp dip! that's when i'll buy...all this among another bubble being created in the gold market...................................................... .... http://i.imagehost.org/0923/46596984_gdp_growth_466_bodge0_4.gif (http://i.imagehost.org/view/0923/46596984_gdp_growth_466_bodge0_4)

[AlpineSkier]

Should I take the fact that this thread after being one of the most lively is now sliding back dramatically is further proof ( stock-market not flying ) that the up turn really is upon us ?

[A and C]

A bit soon to think that the industry wide recovery has started but one newish airilne has posted a 3m Euro operating surplus a week or so back.

I dont see the airlines rushing to the wannabes doors with job offers just yet but the people with airline flying time are being slowly mopped up by the airlines.

[waco]

..........price of fuel is getting interesting again.

[hollingworthp]

As WWW has unfortunately had to repeat ad-infinitum, the reaction in the industry is delayed and always was. Expect the (further) fallouts to occur up to 2 years beyond main-street recovery.

[TheBeak]

Exactly, as always in our 'profession', inertia is a mother :mad:

[Black Knat]

Alpine-only so much can be said without just covering the same thing over and over. Fact is, guys have been warned regarding borrowing and training at this point in time and if they want to go ahead it's up to them-they will have to accept the consequences. Regarding the market still heading upwards, just watch over the next few weeks (possibly days) as reality begins to dawn. Majority are selling off shares in the rising market. This is not normal behaviour in a bull market. WWW-are you still holding onto your FTSE short? Could still come good.

[Penguin68]

WWW-are you still holding onto your FTSE short?

Been wondering about that myself recently. If the latest crappy UK GDP figures don't cause the FTSE (and Sterling) to tank I don't know what will. The 'greater fools' may have been geniuses after all. Reminds me why I never liked equity as an asset class - in either direction.

[clear prop!!!]

WWW-are you still holding onto your FTSE short? Could still come good.

Reminds me why I never liked equity as an asset class - in either direction.



Sorry,...thought this was a forum for wannabee pilots as opposed to a vehicle for buzz word posturing and mutual appreciation hugs!!

I'm sure there's a forum somewhere out there that would love to have a good old laugh at these attempts by our 'financial gurus' and perhaps have a go at our industry buzz words!!:rolleyes:

[Black Knat]

Clear prop:and you point you are making???!!

[clear prop!!!]

Black Nat

My point?...

This is a wannabes forum.

I dip in here occasionaly to see if there is any posts where I might be able to add some help.

Sadly, of late that is not possible due to the current state of play.

Now, most wannabes, or even current, newly employed pilots are at least ..'slightly' in debt,..in fact I've only managed in the last few years to clear mine, and get myself an ISA!! and, just about been able to buy a half decent car...and I'm a captain!....(OK, ...TP)

All this 'high flying' investment talk is of no relevance here, as most are about to take on more debt (rightly or wrongly), than would sink a battleship, so what is the relevance of posturing about investment strategies?

Are we supposed to be impresssed?

[Penguin68]

This is a wannabes forum

You were obviously too busy posturing to notice the thread title or the general drift of the subject matter in it. If anyone gets to say what can be discussed here its WWW, not you. There are plenty of threads here for you to play with acronyms you learned on FSX. Maybe I'll be impressed.

[heli_port]

mmm inflation seems to be a worry when the recovery does get started.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Black Nat

My point?...

This is a wannabes forum.

I dip in here occasionaly to see if there is any posts where I might be able to add some help.

Sadly, of late that is not possible due to the current state of play.



You dip in here occasionally to criticise the state of play of the thread and/or my comments on it. You're quite consistent. Your views tend to be that it is too full of doom and that people shouldn't talk about the economic environment because they are not experts. Given that I have held a very bearish view and have been expounding about economics since well before the crisis hit I have often been the focus of your complaints.

My review of your posting history suggests that occasions when you've been able to add some help are limited.

Do keep trying though.


WWW

[A and C]

I have never been slow to offer an alternative opinion to that of www but dispite my misgivings I have to agree with him on this one.

The health of the economy and the health of the airline business are closely linked (if a bit out of Phase) and so one can't consider a future in one without looking at the other

[UAV689]

I wonder just how much the big schools are feeling the pinch with a downturn in students - I have seen so many banners for money off offers with OAA and cabair...could ethier of these be at risk of going the way of the dodo...?

[heli_port]

The unexpected “mini-boom” in house prices continued in September, according to the latest official figures, but analysts have said that a slowdown in the pace of the recent rebound has begun. Figures from the Land Registry showed a rise of 0.9 per cent in prices last month, taking the price of the average house in England and Wales to £158,377 and bringing the annual decline to 5.6 per cent. However, estate agents have said that transaction levels remain low and have sunk further in the first few weeks of October as homebuyers and sellers begin to hunker down in the run-up to Christmas. Rightmove reported that the number of new listings had fallen to 94,629 in October, from 105,924 in September, and the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors reported slight softening in demand last month. House price mini-boom slows as Christmas looms - Times Online (http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/money/property_and_mortgages/article6894552.ece) House prices will be subject to further extreme pressure in 2010 to 2012 - due to mortgage rates increasing and tightening of lender criteria, combined with continued rising unemployment and difficulty in obtaining all forms of credit. This however will lead to further stock shortages - and Freehold will benefit most with highest price rises - new builds will suffer biggest falls. BY end Dec 2009 around another 200,000 will move onto lower lender variable rates and see mortgage falls, offset by many coming off traacker rate and experiencing higher mortgage repayments. 2010 - Will be the rollercoaster from hell for property and mortgages - but a dream for an overseas buyer in cash or owner selling in prime central London as lack of stock will increase house prices - and there may be fewer transactions post April 2010 as 50% Tax kicks in.

[student88]

Well FTE made 5 instructors redundant yesterday, and good guys they are too. A few were let go earlier in the year also. Student numbers down in Jerez aren't what they used to be but I assume that's the same everywhere else.

[vaibhav]

all the expat pilots in india will not have a job by march 2010 ... they will go back to their own respective countries !!!! what will happen to australia

[Right Touch]

Announced today that BMIBABY are reducing their fleet from 17 to 12 aircraft for next summer with a resultant 54 Pilot redundancies.

BBC NEWS | UK | England | Low-cost airline cutting 158 jobs (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/8342207.stm)

[cjd_a320]

495 pilots to go at Netjets.

Berkshire?s NetJets Fires 495 Pilots Amid Slowdown in Flights - Bloomberg.com (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=axpOtX9rEJ5s&pos=4)

[heli_port]

British Airways has reported a loss before tax of £292m for the six months to the end of September. BBC NEWS | Business | British Airways makes £292m loss (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8345912.stm) :( There is a rumour going round the flight deck that last in first out :( I just happened to be one of the last few in :(

[Cirrus_Clouds]

I expect more redundancies this winter, it's starting to show that winter bookings aren't looking great for the airlines.

Found this on a few CTC students, waiting for that flying job:

Training to fly a desk (http://www.flightglobal.com/articles/2009/11/03/334222/training-to-fly-a-desk.html)

Right now I'd love to wind the clock 2yrs forward, where one would expect more positive things happening in the world.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

http://www.pprune.org/professional-pilot-training-includes-ground-studies/311832-growing-evidence-downturn-upon-us.html#post3885841

Not quite 2 years yet but if you wind the clock back 21 months you would find this:

The US is in recession and we will be there by the summer. Europe will tear itself apart economically as the Euro brushes up to 1.50 euro to the dollar. House prices have gone lower for 5 months in a row and the shareprices of the 4 biggest UK housebuilders are all down by more than 65%.

Interest rate cuts will be small and in many cases not passed on to borrowers. New credit is drying up fast and now the credit card companies are just terminating accounts with 35 days notice.

Without the credit there is no spending. Without the spending there is no economy.

The party is over. Those with £80k of debt, 200hrs and a lovely stack of CV's have my sympathy.


WWW


Today the Euro/Dollar is 1.487

I was wrong about the interest rate cuts, they were massive, but right about them not being passed on.


WWW

[Alex Whittingham]

If you read the article it says the cuts are in NetJets US Operation. This is about as relevant to the UK market as Air Alaska laying off pilots.

[youngskywalker]

Two turboprop operators in Scotland are recruiting new F/O's over December.

[Merchant Banker]

Anyway WWW, when do you predict a rise in interest rates?

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

10 months from now. BoE base rate to be below 4% for at least 3 years.

They are desperate to avoid the deflation monster. Hyper inflation here we come. Buy assets and get the hell out of money.

WWW

[Alex Whittingham]

Like houses?

[Merchant Banker]

Cheers WWW.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Alex - perhaps yes. I still think its a pretty rubbish non-liquid asset with poor returns, but, rents haven't fallen much and I think 'the plan' is to let inflation burn peoples debt burdens down to a more manageable size. Your cash is going to shrink and tangible assets will appreciate or maintain their real value.

See, I'm almost bullish on house prices :eek:


It seems that the ultimate priority is not to do a Japan. After fighting the inflation monster since coming off the gold standard we're throwing open the gates and beckoning him in. Not a good era to be on a low fixed income like many pensioners..


WWW

[cjd_a320]

As said before :)
If you think were going to get hyper inflation then take as much debt out as you can. (not on flight training)

Maybe buy some metals with the debt. :)


However unless they change the current Fiat currency were still battling with deflation......

Mr Blanchflower
Keep Spending, We Are In Economic War: Blanchflower - Economy * Europe * News * Story - CNBC.com (http://www.cnbc.com/id/33504743)

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

The possibility of a money reset and issue of new currency is what drives me to have some physical gold. In a world where major currencies were resetting gold values would be through the roof and a small holding would be enough to start again well ahead of the pack.

It won't happen though. But I still have house insurance etc.


Metal is OK as an asset but then you are very unlikely to ever be able to take delivery of it. I lean towards assets that you can actually see and touch and own in a hyperinflation world. A cellar with 700 bottles of (currently cheap ad about to become much more expensive) Champagne is what I've just spent my ISA allowances on. They take up suprisingly little space when you rack them.

WWW

[cjd_a320]

Its about time we had a some sort of fiat reset :)
1971- for the US & UK is getting long in the tooth for any fiat system..

Fine liquor, cigars & watches are another popular hedge which would complement your Champagne well.

Your right you have to own physical (offshore if your US/UK which is not practical for most people) No Futures, ETF's or any other form of paper IOU metals.

Were still only at the very start....

Shame the wannabes still don't see whats happening..... :(

(Dollar SDR's & Triffin Dilemma for anyone who's interested in such things)

Video - CNBC.com (http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1275511738&play=1)

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Watches is interesting. A bit of a play on the Swiss Franc but that may not be a bad thing. You'd have to avoid the lurid stuff and the chaff like Brietling but its not unattractive if you can avoid the fashion issues. A couple of dozen Rolex Submariners or similar might be a reasonable store of value.

I actually fancy english antique furniture at the moment. It hasn't been this cheap for maybe 2 decades. There are larger pieces going through auction now for £500 that would have fetched triple that only five years ago.

We may have wandered a little further off track than is wise...


WWW

[cjd_a320]

No one takes any notice..... :)

Trying to get back on track.....

10.2% U3 & 17.5 U6 unemployment rates in the US today.... :(

Table A-12. Alternative measures of labor underutilization (http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t12.htm)

The rule of thumb goes, once unemployment gets over 10% it becomes a leading indicator instead of lagging......

[12Watt Tim]

WWW gives a hint there. Buy something that you know. He obviously knows the price of furniture. Find something you know more about than others that is currently of low value and buy.

Last year I would have said simply buy gold, but I have been proved so correct that I am not sure it can keep its absolute value. Probably a good bet against sterling, but so are Euros or any currency not influenced by Bob Mugabe, Barack Obama or Gordon Brown. OK, I exaggerate; you probably should not buy Venezualan or Cuban currency either (Honduras already covered - it's influenced by Obama's tragically inept foreign policy).

[cjd_a320]

In the rare event wannabes take any notice of such things .... :)


Nov. 10 (Bloomberg) -- The U.K.’s sovereign credit rating is most at risk among top-rated nations, Fitch Ratings said, citing concern over the country’s budget deficit.

The rating faces risks because the U.K. needs “the largest budget adjustment,” David Riley, head of global sovereign ratings at Fitch, said in an e-mailed statement. “Our stable rating outlook reflected our expectation that the U.K. government will articulate a stronger fiscal consolidation program next year.”

Fitch Says U.K. Rating Most at Risk Among Top-Rated (Update1) - Bloomberg.com (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601102&sid=amATYJjt.4y0)

[JB007]

Financial crisis could force bmi out of business in under a year

British Midland (bmi) has admitted that it may not be able to continue as a going concern beyond next year in the face of an acute funding crisis at the airline.

The full extent of bmi’s difficulties are revealed in previously unpublished financial accounts seen by The Times. The document reveals that bmi, which employs 4,800 people, needs £190 million of additional funding by the end of next October.

Lufthansa, the German flag carrier that took control of bmi this year, has pledged £95 million to that target. The Derby-based airline hopes to make up the rest by selling its lucrative slots at Heathrow.

The airline’s funding situation is sufficiently precarious for Deloitte, its accountant, to warn that there is uncertainty about whether the airline can carry on. The accounts were signed off on October 23 and Deloitte made it clear that there was no guarantee Lufthansa would stand behind its British subsidiary or give it further financial support.

In addition, bmi has revealed that its pre-tax losses last year were £155.6 million, compared with a profit of £15.5 million the year before. That loss is more than 50 per cent higher than the £99.7 million that bmi had previously claimed it lost in 2008. The lower figure was still being used on the company’s website last night.

The airline said that the discrepancy was caused by late audit adjustments. It also said in its accounts that it was in “significantly advanced” talks with several airlines to sell Heathrow slots.

Because of the uncertainty over how much that sale could raise and whether Lufthansa was willing to provide more cash, the directors of bmi were forced to give a grim assessment of its prospects.

They said: “The achievability of the forecast, the ultimate level of group funding and timing and value of slot sales indicate the existence of material uncertainties, which may cast significant doubt about the group and company’s ability to continue as a going concern and, therefore, the group and the company may be unable to realise their assets and discharge their liabilities in the normal course of business.”

Much of bmi’s value lies in its ownership of 11 per cent of the landing slots at Heathrow. Slot pairs have traded for tens of millions of pounds in the past but their value has fallen in the recession. The airline has cut the value of its slots by 20 per cent from £770 million to £616 million.

Lufthansa has also forced the airline to stop listing the slots as assets in its balance sheet. This accounting change resulted in bmi reporting a total loss of £930.6 million since its previous annual report.

Lufthansa took control of bmi when Sir Michael Bishop, the former chairman, exercised an option to sell his 50 per cent stake to the Germans for about £220 million. The deal was completed in June. Lufthansa then put bmi up for sale and had discussions with British Airways and Virgin Atlantic but decided that the offers were too low. The German carrier brought in Wolfgang Prock-Schauer as chief executive and restructuring began last week when bmibaby, the low-cost operation, said that it would cut 25 per cent of its workforce and reduce its fleet from 17 aircraft to 12.

£930.6 Million Total Loss!!!!!!!:eek:

[JB007]

I would also add to the above, I work for a company that made £500 Million Profit!...and i'm working on been made redundant and looking for work by April...along with the potential for 30 to 40 others...

I just don't know what to say to a Wannabe who is still asking about flight schools....!!!!!

[spider_man]

Troubled national carrier Air India has reported a net loss of 55.5bn rupees ($1.2bn; £719m) for the full-year to the end of March.
The loss was due largely to a 12% drop in revenue, from 152.5bn rupees to 134.8bn rupees, as a result of falling passenger numbers.
Last month, the Indian government agreed to inject 53bn rupees into the carrier to help keep it in business. Global airlines are struggling with falling traffic during the downturn.
The International Air Transport Association (Iata) has forecast losses of $11bn across the whole industry for 2009.
Air India has been told by the Indian government to cut costs dramatically as a condition of receiving the state aid. This could prove difficult, as hundreds of pilots threatened to strike in September to protest against the airline's plans to cut pay incentives. The strikes were called off after the government intervened.

[AirChaser]

Reading this thread is so extremely depressing for someone who is looking for that first aviation job. I finished my flight training from zero to FAA issued CPL + CFI about a year ago. Now I started thinking about converting it to the fATPL except you guys just bursted my bubble.
I guess airline industry in EU is not doing any better than the one in the US.
Fortunately, I was able to manage to put myself in ONLY $40k debt...:ugh:

Is there any hope for wannabes like me in the future?

[cjd_a320]

To add to spider_man post.

Kingfisher seeking £400 million private equity infusion

India's tough aviation market has been hard on Kingfisher. In the three months ending 30 September, the carrier posted a net loss of 4.19 billion rupees ($89 million) compared to a net loss of 4.83 billion rupees in the corresponding period a year before.

http://www.flightglobal.com/articles/2009/11/11/334666/kingfisher-seeking-400-million-private-equity-infusion.html

[cjd_a320]

If BA & Iberia get their act together .....

You know what that means for job "synergy" down the road.....


Nov. 12 (Bloomberg) -- British Airways Plc and Iberia Lineas Aereas de Espana SA are holding board meetings today to consider a $7 billion merger proposal, the carriers said.

British Air, Iberia Boards Consider $7 Billion Merger (Update2) - Bloomberg.com (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601209&sid=aPmOmpQLz4Ds)

[Penguin68]

10 months from now. BoE base rate to be below 4% for at least 3 years.


Agreed unless Sterling comes under serious attack. Real US rates to remain negative for the forseeable future ... no change there then (since 9/11). You would think the powers that be would notice that this has not worked for Japan. In Japan it hasn't massiveley impacted the currency because the Japanese people are savers, and the banks they save with buy JGBs with those savings. The Italian govt is kept afloat by the same mechanism. Can't see the same working for BarryO or the Cameroonies past 2010. Something's got to give, but if CNY remains pegged and the Euro & Yen take the brunt of negative USD & GBP sentiment, well that could be good for the US and/or UK (my money is on the US, with the UK dead in the water). Totally uncharted territory and anyone's guess could be right. Fascinating stuff. Never thought I'd live to see the dollar carry trade. A former colleague of mine said buy CHF when it was > 2.40. We'll likely never see that again in our lifetime. I was too busy buying USD at 2.00 but I think long term he backed a better horse.

WWW - as a former market insider I find your investment strategies very interesting to say the least :ok:

[heli_port]

Budget airline Easyjet has reported a big fall in full-year profits to the end of September, after the rising cost of oil pushed up fuel costs. BBC NEWS | Business | Easyjet sees profits drop by 50% (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8363657.stm)

[heli_port]

Should we be worried about deflation? ]Japan's economy has officially plunged back into deflation, condemning its struggling companies to a purgatory of falling prices and setting up a potentially explosive collision between the Finance Ministry and the Central Bank. Japan's economy slides into deflation - Times Online (http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article6924670.ece)

[gofres]

Well as a wannabe who hasn't kept an eye on the industry for the past year knowing full well it would be downright depressing, I can't say I'm glad to have popped in for a cuppa today!
This economic depression is certainly not over yet and my sympathy goes out to all those new grads looking for a job, and those who are being laid off. In the mean time, I think I'll just go throw myself off a cliff with a hang glider... at least the oil prices won't have an effect! What do you think people would pay for a flight accross the channel lol. Business opportunity here.. any investors?!:}
Failing that, if everyone joins the Zeitgiest Movement, we could all be flying space ships before we retire ;)

[JB007]

Announced today: Link to BBC News Website (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8378586.stm)

Quoting K.Whyjelly from another forum -

...in 2010 a total of nine mainline aircraft are surplus to requirements compared to 2009. This includes two of the five Embraers operating on mainline routes that will be returned to bmi regional. Leases will not be extended on aircraft when they expire in the first half of 2010, including two of the three long haul Airbus A330 aircraft.

79 Captains, and 50 F/O's to go. 600 jobs to go in total

[Greg2041]

Pretty grim for anyone starting out although most of these cuts will be through natural wastage according to the article. Watch this space!

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

I would imagine all the Captains in BMI mainline would each have in excess of 10,000 easily and FO's 6,000. Some would have more than double that.

Wannabes need to calculate the time needed until the industry stops shedding jobs and ADD to that the time until the pool of unemployed experienced pilots dries up. Quite some time I contend.

Its this winter and next which was always going to be the grimmest of times. The 1990 recessionary history showed the major airline failures and mass pilot unemployment came in the years AFTER the recession was over. With 2010 just weeks away I feel my prediction made at the start of the year that it would be 2012 until recovery was wildly optimistic.

We've got the tax rises and the public sector redundancies to get past yet.

2014 it is. :(


WWW

[cjd_a320]

Its not all well in the Middle East....
Keep an eye on Sovereign Credit
Dubai Sovereign CDS is +130 bps up this morning from yesterdays 318.

[waco]

Both Dan Air and Air Europe failed sometime after the early 1990's downturn (a downturn that was no where near as bad as the current situation).

At LGW in those days the question was, " what do you say to a 10,000 hour airline captain? Big Mac and fries please"

There were masses of high time pilots out of work.

I have no doubt the same fate awaits this time.

My bet is bmi will shed more jobs, the BA & IB merger will bring some interesting "synergies". The UK Charter market will shed more jobs. Throw in couple of extra failures and bingo, carnage.

It will end in tears.

If you are still daft enough to borrow money to go flying in the current situation you deserve no sympathy, when you end up in mega debt with no ability to repay the funds.

Lets just hope we don't get another 9/11 to add to the situation.

Oh and by the way, I understand Japan Airlines narrowly avoided going bumb the other day.

[Greg2041]

I feel my prediction made at the start of the year that it would be 2012 until recovery was wildly optimistic.



WWW. optimistic? Make a note of that someone!

... but sadly I suspect you are right. Have you noticed that there have been far fewer people disagreeing with you of late?

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

A Pyrrhic victory in more ways than one. :(

WWW

[DeltaT]

Just to bring a point up for discussion, and hating to be one to go against the big guns on here, but how long can the market sustain the hiring that is going on at the higher levels? The number of ads for crews with high time on type, jet time etc has been going ballistic for a while now.
Or is it because of the areas concerned, China/Asia/Middle East that its only a trickle that actually get there to fill those positions?

[spider_man]

If we include the demise of XL, Silverjet and Zoom in 2008, we must be getting close to 1,000 experienced jet pilot job losses in the UK alone following this announcement :(

[Grass strip basher]

With events in the Gulf (effectively Dubai government default) it is optimistic to expect that this will not have ramifications for Emirates..... how much money on a merger of Emirates/Ethiad within the next 2 years as Abu Dhabi looks to asset strip Dubai??.... why do you need 2 big airlines with bases 100km apart.... the news just keeps getting worse and worse for the industry. :yuk::oh:

[Cirrus_Clouds]

Expect a few more Dubai instances...

Also keep an eye on the unstable situation developing with Iran due to their expanding/building new Nuclear installations, which is causing a few problems with other countries :ugh:

[belowradar]

As a younger and highly motivated PPL I faced similar a situation in the USA in the early eighties and the general opinion from those in the industry was don't bother wasting $16k with CPL/ME/IR /CFII as there aren't any jobs.

I really regreted that decision as the cost doesn't ever get cheaper, I was in a fantastic place (albeit at the wrong time). There were guys on the street at traffic lights with signs saying "will work for food"


Had I done it then time was on my side and I would have seen many cycles in the industry. My advice fo9r what it is worth is seize the moment and go for it if you are young, you make your own luck and may just be in the right place at the right time, there are many facets to flying not all airlines.:ok:

[XX621]

Had I done it then time was on my side and I would have seen many cycles in the industry. My advice fo9r what it is worth is seize the moment and go for it if you are young, you make your own luck and may just be in the right place at the right time, there are many facets to flying not all airlines.:ok:

Best advice I've seen on PPRUNE for a while. One thing is for sure, you definately won't get a job without the license.

[Cirrus_Clouds]

My advice fo9r what it is worth is seize the moment and go for it if you are young, you make your own luck and may just be in the right place at the right time, there are many facets to flying not all airlines

Absolutely correct, but as long as you do it in a managable way, in case that pilot job didn't appear for a while, then you should be fine.

I'm still going to get my qualifications done (I know I'll regret it if I don't), you only live once and recessions don't last for ever. I'd rather train when I'm younger and I can make a career of it rather than waiting until I'm 40 odd. The way things are going at the moment, I expect airline job prospects to appear again when I'm approaching mid 30's, if not slightly before that, so I'll be doing another career in the mean time, but I'm still getting on with it! :ok: rather than being absorbed in the world of negative people.

[ricky81 sti]

I'm thinking the exact same thing guys, it's all i've ever wanted to do and by hook or by crook i'm gonna do it but i ain't silly enough to blow 100k on the way there.

I'm currently 1/2 way thought my ppl with the intention of continuing on at my own pace and planning being all finished up 2012/13 without a penny of debt and a few quid spare if the chance of a job with self funded type rating comes up.

I'm loving my flying at the minute and it's even better know i can speed it up or slow down depending on how the industry looks. I always thought i'd go integrated but having thought long and hard about it and taken advice from great sources such as this forum i wouldn't dream of it with the state of things at present

FLY AS YOU EARN:ok:

[antonov09]

Very very sensible.

[12Watt Tim]

With that attitude I suspect you will make it eventually. Why? Because chief pilots really want rational, cautiously proactive pilots. The former is not shown by throwing money at a large school for an integrated course, the latter is not shown by waiting until the industry picks up before starting (which in any case might well mean you are qualified in time for the next collapse).

[smith]

Because chief pilots really want rational, cautiously proactive pilots. The former is not shown by throwing money at a large school for an integrated course

I think you'll find that in healthier economic times, a lot of airlines prefer integrated course students.

[Deano777]

With that attitude I suspect you will make it eventually. Why? Because chief pilots really want rational, cautiously proactive pilots.

Hmm, be careful with this type of advice, fantastic if you actually get to speak to the chief pilot. I obtained my airline position in mid 2007 at the height of the boom, out of all my friends I met along the way in training (ATPLs, CPL/IR etc) only 3 has jobs and I'm one of them. Getting the interview will be the single hardest thing you'll do once you have qualified. If you can get an interview then it's time to charm them with having a good attitude etc, this will not be conveyed on your CV unfortunately. For what it's worth there is very very little difference between 1 200hr CV and the other 2,000 that's on the recruiter's desk. With this in mind I am also going to dismiss the If you want it bad enough you'll make it happen, you make your own luck brigade. Nice to have that attitude but your deluded if you think determination alone will get you a job.

D777

[belowradar]

Go for it but don't get into silly debt and be prepared for a long haul

I do believe that you can work your butt off but you also need a bit of luck also so there are definitely no guarantees.

If you approach it with that frame of mind then what have you got to loose (apart from wads of paper with Her Majesty's face printed on it).:ok:

[Cirrus_Clouds]

Just goes to show that money doesn't bring happiness!! ... but maybe what you do with it! :)

Yes we're losing income/wages to do something we want to do that brings us happiness and a purpose in life. I've always known what mine was and I won't find out until I do it! :ok:

If you have goals, they are achievable IF you put in the effort.

[ricky81 sti]

I understand that getting even an interview will be the single most difficult thing i'll face along the process and that a lot of it will be down to speaking to the right people, in the right place, at the right time, but the way i'm looking at it is.. i'd rather spend whatever length of time it takes trying without a penny of debt rather than having 100k hanging over my head!

[Sean Dillon]

I think Thomson Airways are about to well and truly screw the market place! We are talking whole new career time for the newly qualified and wannabes!

This industry is just appaulling!

[Coffin Corner]

Sean do you mean redundancies?

[Big_Mach]

Taken from the Thomson Fly thread in T&Cs forum - 110-150 pilots to go. That's people who have been working at the company up to 4 years.
"No recruitment planned till summer 2012...then there will be a need for 40 pilots"
"Contract pilots crewing it in the summer and parked up somewhere cheap in the winter"

[Coffin Corner]

That sucks big time, I've been there before, not nice. All the very best to those it affects.

[cjd_a320]

As JB007 pointed out in summer on what happening at Tui......

137 Thomson pilots to go & 21 left hand seat demotions.

[JB007]

Arabic Linguaphone Course on Order!

Great!

[cjd_a320]

Sorry to hear that JB007 :(

How many slots in Doha are up for grabs...?

[lpokijuhyt]

The best thing to do right now is start training and buy multiple Type Ratings in every aircraft that operates in Europe, after that go to Eagle Jet and buy large quantities of hours. This will show your dedication to this profession. Good luck!

[FlyBoyFryer]

Dude... you forgot to remind everyone about the necessity to take out secured loans on all these Type Ratings!

The banking execs need their bonuses after all and god knows how they're going to live with the extra taxation now. Poor wee things...

[BigNumber]

Things will be much better next year.

In 2010 the 'retirement bulge' will finally come to fruition and, as long as folks have bought 500 hours Line Training, they will be able to pick up well paid jet jobs.

It's lucky that Eagle Jet, ATP, et al are able to provide this highly valuable service.

[cjd_a320]

Is that CTC's & OTA's line on how things are going to be great from 2010 onwards :ok:

Wailt until the UK loses its triple AAA in 2010.....

Some afternoon reading for those who have any interest in such things.

Schofield UK AAA (http://www.scribd.com/doc/23933045/Schofield-UK-AAA)

[ricky81 sti]

BigNumber

I'm training at the minute but with the intention of being finished early 2013 and not having any debt to worry about with money left to pay for a type rating but 2010 might be a bit soon taking everything into account the industry has thrown at us so far and more expected!!

[smith]

Big Number

I couldn't agree with you more.

Remember CAE in Amsterdam and SAS academy in Sweden also provide a highly valuable service in conjunction with an airline based in Stansted called Ryan Air.

If it weren't for companies such these with a caring approach to aviation this industry would be in a complete mess.

[covec]

The wise thing to do would be to have 2 to 5 other career options - or jobs - in mind. Eggs in one basket and all that.

With regards to the UK Forces - some tough cutbacks are on the way including mooted "redundancies" - probably through recruitment freeze, natural wastage along with, in the RAF's case losing one or more airbases and aircraft types. And the Navy's carriers are still not commissioned yet!

The Army are recruiting strongly however - I do not know how close they are to reaching maximum this FY.

Good luck!

[cjd_a320]

NetJets Cuts 90% Of Hawker Jet Orders.

http://www.hawkerbeechcraft.com/include/content_view.aspx?id=12032

Still deflating

[Artie Fufkin]

And another airline teeters on the edge (http://www.ttglive.com/c/portal/layout?p_l_id=3208370&CMPI_SHARED_articleId=3457632&CMPI_SHARED_ImageArticleId=3457632&CMPI_SHARED_articleIdRelated=3457632&CMPI_SHARED_ToolsArticleId=3457632&CMPI_SHARED_CommentArticleId=3457632&articleTitle=Globespan%20gets%2048-hour%20deadline%20extension), look out for news on Thursday afternoon. Why is it always the Boeing operators. Its gone way beyond co-incidence.

Thoughts go out to all involved.

[SkyCamMK]

Just in from BBC News

Scotland's biggest airline, Flyglobespan, has been placed in administration.

A statement is expected soon from PricewaterhouseCoopers, (PWC) which has been appointed as administrator.

The move follows attempts to find a new investor for the Edinburgh-based airline, which employs 600 staff

[UAV689]

awful news, for employees, passengers and wannabes alike.

Take heed wannabes, dont even think about training now, other airlines will follow suit, I imagine cash is at its lowest during winter months, illiquidity is like a bullet to the head and i am sure a few more scalps will follow.

How many pilots were at globespan? 100ish?

[UAV689]

BBC News - Ryanair pulls out of Boeing deal for 200 aircraft (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8419914.stm)

looks like the potenial source of lots of new FO jobs may also dry up...or could just be a ploy by old pikey to get boeing back to the table

[Sciolistes]

In relation to the above story:
Sir Stelios said yesterday: “I’m delighted that Michael O’Leary now accepts what I’ve been saying for over a year — the era of endless fast growth and ever larger aircraft fleet is near its end.”

[go around flaps15]

Well to be fair he has been trying to blow Sir Stelios out of the water pretty much where ever he goes. A prime example being East Mids. MOL has been bringing Sir Stelios down to his level( in relation to cost cutting) for a long long time. Dont get me wrong, an expression springs to mind when I think about MOL "live by the sword die by the sword"
There has been few winners and a lot of losers in this recession. As regards the head to head between MOL and Sir Stelios so far? Well you could probably guess who my money would be on. But then again Im not really a betting person, apart from the gamble I took to join FR, I havent lost out just yet. But who knows? One thing is for certain, NO one is bullet proof in these very hard times.

[no sponsor]

Not so. Ryanair still are contracted to take 112 737-800 from Boeing during the next three years.

From their press release:

Ryanair, today (Fri 18th Dec 09) confirmed that its quarterly Board meeting yesterday determined that its negotiations with Boeing for an order of up to 200 new B737-800 series aircraft for delivery during the period 2013-2016 cannot be successfully concluded prior to the end of the calendar year and accordingly the Board of Ryanair have confirmed that its negotiations with Boeing have terminated unsuccessfully.

Ryanair confirmed that the breakdown of these negotiations will not effect its plans to take delivery of 112 B737-800 aircraft during the next 3 calendar years 2010 (48), 2011 (37) and 2012 (27), which will sustain Ryanair's strong traffic growth over the medium term. Ryanair will now bring forward plans to significantly reduce growth and capital expenditures, in order to maximise cash balances for distribution to shareholders during the period 2012-2015.

I'm sure it's all just posturing from MoL.

[Tony Cooke]

Was the end of the first phase marked by a temporary boom in financial markets around the World, flush with cash from QE and what appeared to many to be the "exit" of most major economies from recession? Or have I put my "beer specs" on the wrong way round ?

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

There are no jobs.

None.

At all.

For the next 4 years.

I promise you.



Even then the job will be poorly paid and demanding.

If you didn't pay £33k to be in the role you are doing well.


WWW

its over

[flyvirgin]

Thanks for the vote of confidence, what about people retiring, new airlines forming etc, agreed times are tough, but 4 years?
I know people who have had interviews in the past few weeks,
What about flight instructing?
Sorry if i sound like a miserable old :mad:,
But its hard when im forking out all this money and people tell you its not worth it, belive me it is,
Before this i was scaffolding 7 days a week to support my fiancee and baby, saving to do my training, hard graft 12 hours a day, flying is a godsend, You say the wages are crap, maybe true, but i can
guarantee you this now, if you was throwing tube about all day in freezing cold temps, i would gladly sit in a flight deck for 20-25k a year.
or even wait for my chance, but i promise this, there a whole world out there, one day ill get the job.

[ei-flyer]

flyvirgin, don't beat yourself up too much mate...

... it's gone 11 pm, 'certain' people are no doubt on their poison by now. incidentally, these same 'certain people' (or rather certain 'person'), was predicting many more airlines to go boom this winter. i believe the exact phrase used was 'this winters gonna be a bloodbath' or similar... and is it? reeeeeally? haha, yeah times are heard, but a bloodbath? naah, you wusses! :p

come on mate, chin up. some time in the next few years will be a recruiter sat on the other side of a desk to you who still understands flying and where it comes from. they're hard to come by, but i left FR three years ago because i had the good fortune to be interviewed by somebody just like that. i shan't divulge too much, but let's just say your past sounds somewhat familiar to me...

it's not over. :ok:

[wanabe2010]

interviews don't mean there are jobs.

you just need to look what's going on in the world, and in the USA to get a good idea what will be the future. What will be YOUR future.

look at JAL and BA. these 2 companies may not see 2011.
You will see plenty of pilots out of jobs.
Believe guys who are in this market since years (like WWW)...

this profession is dead, and anyone (like me) who have been trained, we won't get anything in return except a nice shiny blue book.Who is interested by a 250h pilot???
I Lost my money!

[flyvirgin]

I didn't say they were getting jobs! i said they were getting interviews, correct they are not job offers but it's a start dont you agree,
All im saying that there are airlines out there that are willing to take a 250hr pilot on,
also i know that some of the major airlines some in the middle east and asia are taking pilots on, (pilots who have 1500hr+).
The furture looks bleak for now, but why beat yourself up, stay positive and it will happen, it's got to happen.

[smith]

All im saying that there are airlines out there that are willing to take a 250hr pilot on

Yeah Ryanair.

I believe Loganair have just hired a few new FO's but they were instructors from Tayside and I also believe Eastern have hired some newbies too.

Flying Virgin I like your positive attitude but I think you have bitten off much more than you can chew: fiance, baby and ATPL all by the time you are 21??? I would stick to scaffolding if it can pay you the amounts needed to fund all three of those.

people retiring, new airlines forming etc

The retirement bulge has been talked about for years but I have never seen it affect recruitment in any big way, anyway BA has increased its retirement age from 55 to 60 and the legal retirement age for flying has been increased from 60 to 65. Believe me not but this has had a major impact on the retiral rate that you talk of and consequently the hiring rate too.

New airlines forming: can you give me the names of these new airlines please?

etc: can you give me a list of the etc's that will affect airline recruitment?

Sorry to be a fly in the ointment but unless you go the Ryanair route I can see no other way in at the moment however I would like be proved wrong. Keep us informed of what happens mate.

[flyvirgin]

Smith thanks for the concern, but I have worked hard, for 5 years saved lots of money to pay for my family, training, even a type rating if needed, I'm lucky to be living at home with my parents. So why would I stick to scaffolding , when in a few years my office could be 35000ft in the air,
see hard graft pays off.

[quagmiregiggidy]

Flyvirgin, tread with caution my friend.
I am one of those 1500+ people who where gainfully employed until recently and trust me there are few to no jobs out there for the likes of us let alone someone with a new shinny blue book. It’s healthy to have ambition and dreams, but for the newly qualified and for people with a green book but not a command, at the moment and for some time to come, that’s all they will be.
If I were starting out right now, I wouldn’t go past the exams stage as spending anything more on training (until this whole picture becomes clearer) may be financial suicide.

[flyvirgin]

Quagmiregiddy,
Thanks for your reply, Now i'm thinking wheather to delay my training till next year?
But,
It don't make no oddzs to me, because i can get my licence CPL IR etc and not to worried about getting a job right away,
I used to scaffold on oil rigs which pays good money, so i could go back working there, apply for jobs and see what happens, i could pleasure fly while im waiting to stay current,
Is this a good idea, or just delay the bloody training,

[BoeingMEL]

Fantastic! One of the great things about Pprune is the number of experts... usually aged between 19-21... who explain the past, justify the present and forecast the future with such confidence! Keep'em coming guys... thanks!:ok:

[flyvirgin]

Boeing a long time ago you was young, and confident.

[student88]

Adam, exactly what position are you in at the moment regarding your training?

[flyvirgin]

Finishing atpl's/Cpl, I feel a ear bashing comin on lol

[K.Whyjelly]

Flyvirgin, tread with caution my friend.
I am one of those 1500+ people who where gainfully employed until recently and trust me there are few to no jobs out there for the likes of us let alone someone with a new shinny blue book.

Even more qualified busdrivers on the market as of lunchtime by the looks of things.....................................


German Airline Blue Wings halts flight operations
German airline Blue Wings AG has stopped it's flights this noontime. They were flying from german airports to Moscow and Kasachstan and used a fleet of A320s. They decided to stop because of financial problems. Parts of the fleet had looked like being stored at DUS for at least a week.

Blue Wings stellt Flugbetrieb ein - FLUG REVUE (http://www.flugrevue.de/de/zivilluftfahrt/airlines-flugbetrieb/blue-wings-stellt-flugbetrieb-ein.18238.htm)

All the best of luck to the staff.

[BoeingMEL]

... I WAS young once... but even at 18 I knew that if I couldn't stand the heat I could get out of the kitchen. Whilst I am hugely saddened that so many of you young folks have worked hard and borrowed fortunes, the industry is what it is...it's evolving and changing like it always has. I certainly never considered joining a ragbag band of (sometimes) near-illiterate Seneca pilots trying to change things in their favour! It wouldn't have worked then and it won't work now.

If you don't want to pay for a TR...don't do it! If you don't want to be bonded..don't do it! Each and every one of you young (and youngish) folks with 200-230 hours and a frozen ATPL made a choice and took a risk... and I'm the first to acknowledge that, tragically, many of you will never make it into the airlines. For some, bankruptcy beckons. For others, maybe spending the next 15-20 years paying off your debts.

What some of you guys hope to achieve by stirring the media is lost on me.. and I am gravely concerned about how many of you "rebels" will treat SOPs... if you get that far. The learning really starts when you get that first RHS position.

Rant over, sorry. Even we old timers know it's really hard for you out there and I, for one, wish you all well.

Cheers, bm. PA23, 31, DC3,C500,550 and 650. Be90, 100 and 200.F27, B733. B206, S61 and 76. Not bragging..just saying!

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

I love it when Wannabes come on about how its worth training because things will pick up. My good friends over on the Flying Instructor forum (which I also Mod) are eagerly waiting to take your cash.

ei-flyer, lets wait until the winters actually over before we count up the corpses eh? With Lingus collapsing their LGW operation down to only Malaga + some local Irish airport destinations there may well be one quite close to home.

The only jobs in the airline world in Europe require the payment of a circa £30k to attain on a part time, contractor basis. Pay to fly is all there is. Sadly the entry fee is now North of £100k to access the flightdeck.

Since summer 2007 I have been warning of this.

Still they enrol.


WWW

[flyvirgin]

Thanks Weasley,
I've only ever dreamed about becoming a pilot since as long as i can remember, dam saved all this money for nothing,
I'm going back to scaffolding....

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

What a very good idea.

WWW

[Flypuppy]

Since summer 2007 I have been warning of this.

I was screaming blue murder about it in 2002, but no one seemed to listen then. Why should anyone listen now?

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Now there's a blast from the past! Hope you're doing well Flypuppy.

WWW

[smith]

if you both keep on screaming on about it you'll get ir right eventually. Its not really the bloodbath I was expecting, but still pretty bad

[smith]

If I look into my crystal ball in the not too distant future I see a time when there are no FO jobs at all. In the bean counter's eyes the FO is only there to keep it legal so will become a training position only until you reach 1500 hours then you can apply for a command and start getting paid as a captain is required to fly the plane!!!

[MIKECR]

Is that not whats happening already...!!??:}

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

The jobs on its arse. There won't be an upturn. This is never going to go away. There never will be a shortage of 200hr cadets. There never will be an alternative to paying for TR way over the odds and then working without terms or conditions.

The ratchet is always down.

The jet airlines are closed unless you have a £100k chequebook. Start targeting the small operators with unusual type ratings would be my advice.

Its over.

Very over.


WWW

[jbayfan]

WWW,

It may be doom and gloom in Europe but down here in South Africa our mainline carrier, SAA, is predicting growing from around the current level of 750 pilots to around 1000 by the end of 2011. Mango, their low-cost sister, is also predicting growth and SA Express, the feeder for SAA, is looking for at least 60 additional pilots due to expansion plans. Kenya Airways just advertised for another cadet batch.

Yes, these are positions for pilots with experience, but it means that there will be around 300 to 400 positions opening up for commuter airline FO's, flight instructors, charter and contract pilots when the airlines hire the current occupants of these positions.

Cheers

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

How lovely for all Wannabes with SAA licenses with the right to live and work in South Africa.


WWW

[pug]

because everybody seems to knock the people with dreams, what about the people who accepted these working conditions?

As a fellow 'wannabee' i have been following these threads for the last few years. I can only say thank you to posters such as WWW for confiming my fears and subsequently put the 'dream' on hold.

I would suggest as a new poster you go through the hundreds of threads and posts on this matter before asking such questions.

To answer that quote, however, it seems the overly optimistic people who have been accepting these schemes have not helped. I dont want to pass too much judgement on their situation as i am on the other side of ATPL training, and am not in the airline business at the moment. Iit could be that they have been 'forced' to accept after investing a small mortgage in this. It could be argued by some that people are trying to get ahead of the competition by doing this.

It is clear that the bean counters have picked up on the rose tinted rayban wearers and have seen a money spinner.

Personaly i will be over there until we see an improvement, if we ever do! Im heading towards my late 20's now though so a re-evaluation of my own situation may be in order i believe. :ugh:

[BoeingMEL]

No doubt the Pprune community will greatly appreciate the benefits they derive from a Playstation-jockey/probationary Ppruner! From zero to hero in 4 posts..:ugh:

[PPRuNe Towers]

Ah but is he BMel?

Or is it simply tigermagicjohn (http://www.pprune.org/admin/user.php?do=edit&u=129581) the troll's troll and who recently deleted a large number of his posts during a toy/pram interface episode?

I know just on the writing style.

Rob

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

As Alan Partridge would say - ah ha!

I suppose the clue was in the username for a start.

Right. No troll feeding allowed on this thread. DO NOT feed the troll on pain of being shot.


WWW

[UAV689]

Next airline to go bust &ndash; the odds - Telegraph (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/transport/6907940/Next-airline-to-go-bust---the-odds.html)

interesting, if not a bit somber...

didnt know there was a vatican air...thought the pope flew alitalia.

[Bealzebub]

interesting, if not a bit somber...
didnt know there was a vatican air...thought the pope flew alitalia.

No it isn't, on the assumption that you mean sombre. It is a bit of novelty betting being promoted by an Irish bookmaking company whose chairman Nigel Northridge also happens to be a non-executive director of Thomas Cook, whose own airline is buried somewhere in the middle.

Chairman Nigel Northridge
Nigel Northridge was appointed as a non-executive director in July 2003 and as Chairman on 1 January 2009. He was the Chief Executive of Gallaher Group Plc up to April 2007, when the company was sold to Japan Tobacco. Nigel is also senior independent director of Aggreko plc and a non-executive director of Thomas Cook Group plc and Inchcape plc.

[UAV689]

thank you for correcting my spelling error...some people are clearly quite anal...

Non exec directors dont do anything, from my experience of them in my company they rock up 3 times a year, and collect 35-40k for their time. Nice work if you can get it.

[David Horn]

this profession is dead, and anyone (like me) who have been trained, we won't get anything in return except a nice shiny blue book.Who is interested by a 250h pilot???
I Lost my money!

Your profile suggests that you're 19 years old. Can I ask where you trained?

[flyvirgin]

Why is aceoftheskys a troll????? troll=name calling,name calling=BULLYING, not really a good example,
He actually speaks some sense, www it sounds like (plus i've been told) that you got a chip on your shoulder about something,stelios done something to upset you?:}
oh well,
AD.