Growing Evidence That The Upturn Is Upon Us

[TheBeak]

Incorrect and I couldn't care a less if that's what you suspect. I am crap with computers for one. I am all qualified with a lovely CPL/IR and all of my useful ATPL passes, beyond that you don't need to know. Take my advice or leave it.

Here's where you show your naivety:

I'd be quite happy flying full stop whether it be taxi, ambulance, cargo or otherwise

You and every other sucker mate.

[Thick Blue Line]

Flying Shortly,

Quote - Just because I'm positive and optimistic does not mean I throw my money around irresponsibly. And I certainly am not expecting my parents to foot the bill of my ambitions.

I dont think anyone has suggested you are, the point raised is simply that it would be somewhat misleading to say the least to suggest to people on this forum that forking out thousands of pounds for training is a reasonable investment opportunity for themselves.

Quote - TheBeak, maybe you might outline your position. It's all well giving advice if you've been through the mill but I suspect you've probably got an IT desk job wishing you'd done otherwise....

Even if he is; so what? This is paid employment, job and financial security. How could anyone possibly be criticised for that in the current climate?? (or any climate for that matter!)

Personal debt has spiralled out of control in this country over the last decade, and it is in no small part down to the fact that it has been far too easy and 'socially accepted' to get loans/credit cards etc for sizeable sums of money.

I see no problem at all with a balanced opinion from posters to prospective training candidates, pointing out the pitfalls of committing £70k+. Surely you or anyone else cant disagree with that?

Rather than relying on 'luck' and other such self reassuring sanctimonious rubbish perhaps people should be encouraged to consider a 3, 5 or 10 year plan for their future.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Hmm, couple of abusive posts and private messages now about how I must be a miserable old git.

Sorry, not true. I've been wonderfully lucky in life and if *I* was miserable then 99% of other people would have to be suicidal with their lot. Put it this way, I've just been digging out the hole for my swimming pool with my digger, I've no mortgage, I'm 34 and I've a strapping son about to enter the world.

None of which changes the fact that this is a terrible time for Wannabes and that there are hundreds of REALLY good guys and girls out there now who are £80k down and are working shifts despatching aircraft for £15k. I deal with them every working day. You think you're better, you're different or your license and CV will not look identical to them then you're deluded, ignorant or foolish.

I'm sorry that I do lay it on with a trowel. I have to because this opinion is drowned out by the hurricane of flying school marketing and Wannabes naturally enthusiasm and ambition.

£2k per annum maintenance is a minimum figure at best. Plus getting rusty. Plus more and more unlikely to pass a sim assessment. Plus servicing your debt. All very powerful reasons to sit on the sidelines until the worst of the storm has passed safely by.


WWW

[Thick Blue Line]

Abusive posts and messages? If that is the case then how rediculous, hardly the behaviour of future professionals but then the internet is all too anonymous! Its easy to be abusive from behind your screen.

No need to rub it in about the swimming pool though . . . ! ;)

[TheBeak]

To all the 'optimists' on this thread then, I must ask what do YOU hope to achieve by your posts? The fact that someone is even considering spending such a huge amount of money on their training shows they have an enthusiam for the job and the industry. That coupled with, as WWW points out, the very biased marketing offered by FTOs REQUIRES a balance applied to it. It isn't all rosy, it IS difficult to get a job and the risk involved in terms of money and time need to be considered. This thread has become a medium by which relevant news, advice and opinions can be offered to help challenge ones ultimate desire to become a PAID commercial pilot. I remember the turmoil I went through deciding whether I should spend my VERY hard earned cash on pilot training, especially when it seemed I wasn't terribly natural at it. And it was the advice that came from this thread and others that offered the wake up call and sharpener I required to make a concious, rational decision to pursue things.

Humans DO suffer from confirmation bias and when deciding all one (at least I could) can think of is going fast, going high, seeing places, the status, the responsibility, being paid alot (relatively) and basically not having to work for the money - it is a pleasure after all!

And thinking that you would do the 'less sexy' jobs makes you any different to the thousands of other jobless pilots out there is the definition of delusion. 99.99999999999999% of qualified pilots without a job would move anywhere to fly anything be it 152s in Yorkshire, King Airs in Kenya, L410s in Ukraine or Shorts 360s in Afghanistan containing anything be it sick people, cargo, passengers, animals, students.

People do of course get jobs but it is getting tougher and tougher without bags of cash, no dependents and a willingness to be unemployed for half of the year - and that is if you are lucky.

[getoffmycloud]

Been in my swimming pool this afternoon.... keep digging WWW :))
And there aren't any jobs for wanabees in the middle east where I live either.... but the world is full of 18-21 year olds who don't have a scooby about how they will get screwed in the real world! Fying schools live on dreams during recessions.

[TheBeak]

Fying schools live on dreams during recessions

Nicely put.

[BigNumber]

I think the very saddest part of the story is the precession of proud parents signing guarantee on the flight training loans.

Sadly, the wise words from TheBeak (and others) will never pour caution on a parental desire to support the flawed business plan. Pprune is not in their sphere of research.

And yet they come.. More and more FATPL's are issued, SSTR are followed, Line Training is bought..............:ugh:

[Bealzebub]

I think the very saddest part of the story is the precession of proud parents signing guarantee on the flight training loans.

I think you mean procession? But don''t be too sad. Most parents have a healthy survival instinct when it it comes to the financial planning for their offspring. Years of practice! Some will be able to happily underwrite this size of loan in the full knowledge that the repayments will fall to themselves, probably most.

The truth is, it is a lot of money to borrow and the equity ratios required are somewhere in the order of 60% max LTV after the loan has been approved in the most common scheme. I doubt too many people will qualify in any event.

[Thick Blue Line]

Anybody know if the integrated schools are struggling yet? I would have thought they would be getting dangerously short on business until I re-joined this forum recently and read some of the postings.

[WELCO]

Let's face it. The enthusiasm deep inside the majority of wannabes won't be put out by the aviation industry gurus in here! Just remember your old days when you all were similarly young and energetic wannabes, although circumstances were significanlty different, nothing seemed to stop anyone of you I suppose. Say what you say about FTO,s abusing the dreams of today's young people, but it begins with those who go after their dreams as soon as they catch a glimpse of hope at the end of the bumpy dark tunnel. It's the ignition that can hardly be stopped, gentlemen!


Keep posting your opinions and conclusions, but for God's sake don't make a win/lose argument of either opinion. Otherwise, let it be a never-ending battle between a judicious mind and a supercharged passion!!! :ugh:

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

I know what you mean Welco. I was starting out in 1997 which is when the industry really recovered from the early 1990's recession and jobs were being created. From then until the eleventh of September things were peachy, then dipped, then super peachy. Times today are similar (or worse) to those not seen for nearly 17 years.

Yet now things a much much worse. Now you can pay £70k for your basic training, then £20k for your type rating, then be asked to work for allowances and then after 500hrs put back into the job market - ta very much for all the hard work over the summer..

That's a right load of old bollocks that it. When you get to the job you'll find you're a shift worker, highly monitored, a number in a computer, a very small cog, hated by some of your co-workers and hauling ungrateful ignorant drunken people from point A to point B hoping they don't kick-off or kick the bucket in transit.

You will, like every other commercial pilot under the age of 50, simply be in it for the money.



I note from todays Sunday Times:

BA in pension reserves crisis - Times Online (http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/transport/article6493360.ece)

BA in pension reserves crisis
Dominic O’Connell
BRITISH AIRWAYS has begun a tough set of negotiations with its pension trustees after dropping below the level of cash reserves agreed three years ago.

The threshold was set in 2006 in talks between the company and trustees at New Airways Pension Scheme, the larger of BA’s two final-salary plans. It agreed to pay a big one-off contribution help address the deficit, and to pay an extra £50m a year as long as it had £1.8 billion of net cash.

BA’s recent results revealed that its net cash had dropped to £1.3 billion. This is expected to fall further this year with the recession. Willie Walsh, the chief executive, says BA faces a fight for survival.


Need to know: Aer Lingus cuts flights ... Eurozone output falls ... Waitrose sales rise - Times Online (http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/need_to_know/article6489697.ece)

Aer Lingus: The Irish airline said that it would cut seat capacity on its winter long-haul services by a quarter compared with 2008 in response to low demand and significant losses in the first quarter. The company will cut direct services from Dublin to Washington and San Francisco as well as flights between Shannon and Chicago for the winter period.


Flight from first class puts airlines into a nosedive - Times Online (http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/transport/article6493365.ece)


Flight from first class puts airlines into a nosedive

Irwin Stelzer: American Account

The airline industry has never generated sustained profits — by some estimates if you add up all the profits and losses since the Wright brothers flew from Kitty Hawk in 1903, the net amount would be written in red ink. This year will be no different. The global industry will lose an estimated $9 billion, after losses of $10.4 billion last year.

The question now is, which carriers will survive the downturn, and with what sort of schedules and service? It’s not an easy question to answer because two forces are at work: the current, temporary cyclical downturn, and a permanent change in travel habits.

Press reports are not much help. One day we learn that the industry has suffered huge losses in every year since 2001, with the exception of 2007, the next that United Airlines is ready to place a $10 billion order for 150 new jetliners. One day British Airways announces that it won’t configure any new planes to offer first-class service, and Qantas scraps first-class service on three of its long-haul routes; the next day Lufthansa and Air France-KLM announce plans to use their new A380 super-jumbos to expand their premium service offerings, even though premium travel (first and business class) is down about 20%.

There is no question that the recession is hitting the airline industry where it hurts – in the premium service category. This is especially true on the transatlantic routes on which BA is so heavily dependent for its profits, and in the Asia-Pacific region.




This isn't like anything you think you've seen unless you saw the 1991-92 recession from the viewpoint of wanting an airline pilots job. You don't comprehend how tough it will get.

WWW

[quant]

we shall see this winter www :eek:

[disco87]

It's all enough to put you off trying to get into this industry

[quant]

The UK economy is stabilising but it will not be until early next year that a "slow and gradual" recovery will begin, business leaders have said.

The economy will contract by 3.9% over 2009 before seeing a return to growth of 0.7% next year, the CBI predicted.
"The harshest period of the recession looks to be behind us," said CBI director general Richard Lambert.
But he warned people against getting carried away by talk of "green shoots" in the economy.
In the Budget, the chancellor forecast the economy would shrink by 3.5% this year before expanding by 1.25% in 2010.


BBC NEWS | Business | UK 'to recover slowly from 2010' (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8099701.stm)

:8

[Mikehotel152]

it is about risk management

and

How can you possibly, in all seriousness bank on luck as a factor in getting a job and being able to pay back a mortgage sized loan?

Agreed. I've never advocated spending vast amounts of your parent's money on integrated training unless you're rich! If you're not rich and have put yourself in a financial position where you must rely on luck to get a job straight out of an integrated school or you and your parents will be bust, you are mad. :uhoh:

now is NOT the time to get recruited by an airline

Agreed. It's a terrible time to be searching for a job in the Aviation Industry, but for those who have planned carefully: -

there are jobs out there for those with the luck, talent or perseverence to get them

Even WWW just admitted to having benefitted from luck in the course of his career. Most commercial pilots I know can point to a lucky break which set them on course.

Perserverence is essential when times are tough. By going modular and being prepared to earn peanuts as an FI, baggage handler, dispatcher, or crop-picker etc will eventually get you on the first rung of the ladder. If you don't believe that, don't start training. BUT you've got to plan for the worst case scenario.

As for talent, we have all met people during flying training who simply aren't suited to a career in professional aviation. I know of at least one guy on an MCC course whom I wouldn't lend a bicycle, let alone any form of aerial transport. And he had a CPL/IR?!

But unfortunately FTOs are eager for your money and will try to get you a licence even if they think you're useless, provided you hand over the cash. The integrated providers seem to be better than the modular at regulating their intake. In good times they're better at getting their students jobs. In bad times everyone's scr:mad:ed.

You will, like every other commercial pilot under the age of 50, simply be in it for the money

Quite possibly. Mind you, none of the commercial pilots I know have said that. However, it must not be forgotten that wannabe commercial pilots are in the same position as people entering many, many other careers where terms and conditions have nose-dived in the last 15 years while petty bureaucracy has increased. There are no guarantees that you'll feel loved or enjoy it!

Now is probably a very good time for advising younger wannabes to get a good education and some working life under their belts before entering the industry.

Cheer up people! :)

MH152

[quant]

The US will see a "solid" recovery from the downturn next year, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) declared today in the latest indication that the recession has bottomed out.
The group, which had previously delivered some of the gloomiest forecasts about the global economy, today revised its view, saying the US was set to grow more strongly than previously thought.
In its annual report on the world's biggest economy it forecast that a heavy dose of stimulus would see the US contract by 2.5 per cent this year, with a modest expansion in 2010 of 0.75 per cent.
Previously, it had forecast that the economy would shrink by 2.8 per cent in 2009 and improve slightly but show no growth next year.


American economy to recover by next year - Times Online (http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article6504330.ece)

[KAG]

With the recovery will come back the high price fuel. There is nothing we can do about that, but using something else than fuel to feed our cars, I know it won' t happen anytime soon.

Optimism won' t change anything. Last century saw the birth and development of space and aviation. This century is a transition one, aviation has turbulence ahead.

[quant]

With the recovery will come back the high price fuel. There is nothing we can do about that, but using something else than fuel to feed our cars, I know it won' t happen anytime soon.Agreed we will see $200/barrel sometime :sad: This is the reason that i am getting all of my training done during the downturn as when the fuel price goes up i won't be able to afford it :{ atleast when it is all said and done all i have to worry about is keeping current :8

www will probably be horrified at what i just wrote :p

[quant]

British Airways is asking thousands of staff to work for nothing, for up to one month, to help the airline survive.
The appeal, sent by e-mail to more than 30,000 workers in the UK, asks them to volunteer for between one week and one month's unpaid leave, or unpaid work.


BBC NEWS | Business | BA asks staff to work for nothing (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8102862.stm)

:eek:

[quant]

Two jobs the pilots are being asked to cover are “baggage recovery agents” in the arrivals hall and “hospitality agents” in the airline’s business class lounges.
For those who do not want to stray too far from their usual jobs, there are also vacancies to operate the bridges that connect aircraft to the terminal buildings. Or, for a more physical challenge, pilots can be in charge of taking oversize hand luggage and pushchairs from passengers before they board.
FT.com / Companies / Airlines - KLM recruits pilots for down-to-earth duties (http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/029f6b02-5520-11de-b5d4-00144feabdc0.html?nclick_check=1)

interesting :8 :oh:

[quant]

Airbus (http://www.flightglobal.com/landingpage/airbus.html) and Boeing (http://www.flightglobal.com/landingpage/boeing.html) may have endured their worst Paris air show (http://www.flightglobal.com/landingpage/paris%20air%20show.html) for a generation sales-wise, but both were unanimous in their belief that the end of the gloom is in sight.
"It feels like we're bouncing off the bottom," says Boeing Commercial Airplanes chief executive Scott Carson. "It feels to us like the middle of next year is when we will see growth return to the industry."
Airbus's chief executive Tom Enders concurs: "We think [orders] will pick up again next year."
Carson cites the latest economic data that Boeing tracks for his upbeat view, but caveats this with the warning that "there is certainly no certainty in being able to predict the future".
However, both airframers have effectively written off 2009 from an orders perspective. Carson says the industry faces "a different year" to the boom times during each of the 12 months that preceded it, while Enders says that it is "obvious" that orders will come down dramatically from the 900 it booked in 2008.


Airbus and Boeing concur on likelihood of 2010 recovery (http://www.flightglobal.com/articles/2009/06/19/328460/airbus-and-boeing-concur-on-likelihood-of-2010-recovery.html)

[disco87]

We seem to always read the same articles quant

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

It seems that in the last recession everyone was seeing green shoots but this time around we're very much bumping along the bottom.

The UK government is borrowing £30,000,000,000 a MONTH at the moment. Something is going to give. It will be structural.


WWW

[Flying Squid]

The above post about KLM asking flight crew to take up other jobs as bridge operators and baggage reclaim staff is troubling. My brother (BA Cabin Crew) has just showed me his lovely email from Willy Walsh asking him to volunteer to work shifts for free and this is bad enough......but for KLM to ask guys and girls that have invested tens of thousands of pounds of their own money in their training to now go and lugg bags around is a joke. Generally I'm ALWAYS first to muck in when the proverbial hits the fan but there has to be a line drawn somewhere. As for volunteer work for a month, its all a bit rich for Mr Walsh to bleat on about giving up one month's salary himself if everyone else will...he earns £61,000 a MONTH, my brother earns little over £1000....rediculous idea. Whats that to him! How about he gives up 6 months salary, I doubt it would adversely affect his personal fortune and I'm sure he could just about cover the bill's with the remaning £366,000!!! Sorry guys....soap box back in the cupboard!

Generally I would be the first to bash the doom mongers but I would have to agree with WWW on this one...we are just bumbling along the bottom with no genuine sign of growth for now. I think a W shaped recession is on the way, we're at the bottom right now with things getting marginally better but I fear it may swan dive again.

As for the level of borrowing hitting £30,000,000,000 a MONTH.....f*** me how long is this country going to be crippled trying to repay the money....I heard an interesting comment quoted on PM's question time the other day.....aparantly a large percentage of the increased public spending is actually going on servicing the ever increasing debt interest rather than putting more nurses on wards and coppers on the street. What a mess we're in! Nice work Gordie!

As for the orders placed at the Paris Air Show......Roll's Royce signed up Gulf Air for a £920m engine order and accompanying maintenance contract....and Airbus got an order for £1.2b from Qatar Airways....both orders are good news for the UK economy.....Airbus make their wings in Chester and Rolls Royce Engines are made up near Derby I believe. Boeing suffered though, they have had 65 orders placed so far this year but have had 65 orders cancelled....so actually they have netted zero sales for 2009 so far :uhoh:

:ugh::ugh::ugh::ugh:

[Thick Blue Line]

Dont have the quotes but papers yesterday were talking about the inevitable interest rate rise coming soon.

There is no doubt that plenty of folk are going to be completely and utterly phinancially :mad: in the near future.

Keep the hatches battened down . . . . . .

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

3 years ago the political debate was about how Gordon Browns government was going to be a record 41 BILLION in debt on budget day. This sum in now borrowed not annually but every 6 weeks.

It is borrowed from the future by selling government debts today (gilts).

It is effectively a promise sold today that future governments will be able and willing to tax future UK workers and hand that money PLUS INTEREST to the gilt holder at the pre-agreed rate.

Todays government is mortgaging tomorrows taxpayer at the rate of £30bn a month. With roughly 35 million taxpayers that is about £800 a month each. Plus interest.

If your monthly tax bill went up by £1000 a month would you cope? No. So it will have to be spread. Over a generation. Like a mortgage. So we'll end up paying 175% of the amount borrowed just like you do on a 25yr mortgage at 5%.

Your taxes will go up, harshly, and stay up.


They have to.



“The study of money, above all other fields in economics, is one in which complexity is used to disguise truth or to evade truth, not to reveal it.”

John Kenneth Galbraith , economist, author, Money: Whence it came, where it went - 1975, p15



"The issue which has swept down the centuries and which will have to be fought sooner or later is the people versus the banks."

Lord Acton (1834-1902) English historian


"Permit me to issue and control the money of a nation, and I care not who makes its laws."

Mayer Amschel Rothschild, International Banker



"When a government is dependent upon bankers for money,
they and not the leaders of the government control the situation,
since the hand that gives is above the hand that takes.

Money has no motherland; financiers are without patriotism
and without decency; their sole object is gain."

Napoleon Bonaparte



"If all the bank loans were paid, no one could have a bank deposit, and there would not be a dollar of coin or currency in circulation. This is a staggering thought. We are completely dependent on the commercial banks. Someone has to borrow every dollar we have in circulation, cash, or credit. If the banks create ample synthetic money we are prosperous; if not, we starve. We are absolutely without a permanent money system. When one gets a complete grasp of the picture, the tragic absurdity of our hopeless situation is almost incredible -- but there it is."

Robert Hemphill. Credit Manager, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta



“’The modern banking system manufactures money out of nothing. The process is perhaps the most astounding piece of sleight of hand that was ever invented.

Banking was conceived in iniquity and born in sin. Bankers own the Earth. Take it away from them, but leave them the power to create money, and with the flick of the pen they will create enough money to buy it back again...

Take this great power away from them and all great fortunes like mine will disappear, and they ought to disappear, for then this would be a better and happier world to live in. But if you want to continue to be slaves of the banks and pay the cost of your own slavery, then let bankers continue to create money and control credit’.”

Sir Josiah Stamp Director, Bank of England 1928-1941
(reputed to be the 2nd richest man in Britain at the time)

Josiah Stamp

Josiah Stamp, 1st Baron Stamp - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Josiah_Stamp,_1st_Baron_Stamp)



I don't like to but it is relevant;


A definite factor in getting a lie believed is the size of the lie. The broad mass of the people, in the simplicity of their hearts, more easily fall victim to a big lie than to a small one.'

Adolf Hitler




The current spending blitz is equal to what would be required to fight world war two at the time. The world war two debt was paid off finally just a few years ago. The banks need people in debt. The banks need nations in debt. Cue the X-files theme...


;-)


WWW

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

I expect 2 - 3 years time to be the nadir.

It is the coming winter and winter on 2010-11 that history tells us will bring the most significant airline failures. Historically airlines go bust after, sometime a couple of years after, the recession has ended. Many - most - airlines are currently burning their cash reserves to continue operating. The name of the game is to stay in it until enough rivals exit the marketplace and the opportunity for yields return.

In this money bleeding competition those airline that had nothing but debt to start with have already died right at the starting bell. At the moment the competition is in full swing. Plenty of airlines are looking pasty and feint and the harsher winter market conditions will see a some of them die. Next year Europe and the UK will see rocketing unemployment as the recession enters its nasty phase. The money bleeding competition will continue and by the winter after next even some of the largest, healthiest players, will be getting very dizzy.



I think being an airline pilots wannabe is a little like playing the stockmarkets. Don't focus on trying to time the booms as its impossible and the market is irrational. Instead try to avoid the busts which have somewhat more predictable characteristics. This is one of the biggest busts for decades.

A brief perusal of the last recession of the early 1990's




1990

1990 - Inflation 9% for the year - not looking so good.

Employment - unemployment became the issue again when after 44 months of successive falls unemployment started to rise again in April 1990 to 1,606,600. Pace of increase quickened from there on. But unemployment still lower than many of competitors (France 8.9%, Italy 9.6%); couldn't match performance of Germany Japan and US though (same old story?).



1991

1991 - Still recession. Despite continuous promises from politicians - no recovery in sight. Growth for the year -2% (that's a minus, not a dash!). Unemployment heading up as well, for the same reason - 2.6m out of work by the end of 1991, but inflation is coming down - 4.6% for the year, so perhaps the recession had a positive effect!

Growth in Europe was slowing rapidly, though UK still beat them all (in the wrong direction). Gradual shift away from Thatcherism, with less emphasis on public spending cuts and the first stages in the abandonment of the Poll Tax.


1992

1992 - Still recession - still various protestations of recovery from politicians! GDP declined by 1 %. Combined effect of the recession raised unemployment to 2.87m - more than 50% of them out of work for more than 6 months, and a third for more than a year. Businesses collapsed at a rate of about 1,200 per week.

But inflation fell to 3% - helped by interest rate cuts. House prices continue to fall, and `negative equity' to rise.

Election year - won surprisingly (?) by Tories. PSBR rising rapidly as recession continues and fuelled by pre-election spending increases - £38bn for 1992.

Interest rates cut further to 7% by end of the year, but partly thanks to UK's departure from the ERM - "Black Wednesday" 16th September 1992. Government raised interest rates to 15% at one stage of Black Wednesday to try to defend the £. Concerns about the UK economy and the French referendum on Maastricht send pound down to its bottom limit. Fears that sterling would be devalued fuelled significant selling of the £ and buying of the Deutschmark. As a result of departure from ERM, interest rates are cut significantly.

Business failures ended the year at 62,767.



1993

1993 - Recovery - GDP growth at 1.75% for the year. Investment still very low at 15.2% of GDP (public and private investment).

Earnings growth well down, but unemployment peaked at over 3m in January, though fell to 2.81m by end of the year. Inflation fell to a 30 year low of 1.2% - one of lowest rates in Europe (only Denmark and Irish Republic lower).

PSBR - £50bn - help! Spending increases of £30.7bn and tax falls of £20.2bn to blame. Much of it recession, but by no means all.



1994

1994 - Recovery, but still a lack of a real `feel-good' factor. Growth is healthy at 4%, and the output gap is closing considerably from the recession of the early `90's. However, investment remains stubbornly low, particularly for this stage of the cycle - only 15% of GDP (peaked in '89 at 20% of GDP).

Inflation remains low at just over 2%.

Unemployment falling well to under 2.5m. OECD produced a major report analysing worldwide unemployment.




From a Wannabes perspective you didn't want to be job hunting until 1995 at best. By 1997 things were starting to really hum and by 1999 jobs were everywhere. ALL the risk is on entering the marketplace TOO EARLY.


WWW

[TheBeak]

Ok, I apologise for getting a bit strong but your comment about there ever being a pilot shortage in the next 2-3 years riled me, your comment about the Middle East riled me and your comment about the trainees laid off being 50 -60 year olds riled me. You have perhaps been ill informed.

Your reasoning for starting training is almost identical to the reason I did, almost to the word so I can see you aren't out to annoy. But things you need to understand are:

How about determination. Drive. Energy. Willpower. Persistence. Fearlessness. Self-confidence. Resolve.
How about never giving up on anything that you can't go a day without thinking about?



That accounts for about 5-10% of it. You missed out on the other two biggest factors - LUCK and TIMING.

Pessimism and hopeless attitudes do not help man or beast

Too true. But realism helps promote the age old adage of 'prevention is the best form of cure' - pre-empt and prevent. Optimism CAN lead to failure of the highest order - the higher you go, the harder you fall. You could end out broken if you go into this too optimistic.

I am someone who believes in hope and faith and what is meant to be is meant to be

Careful you do not apply that to an aircraft. I have heard stories from VERY reliable sources of pilots, in your favorite place the Middle East, who were quoted as very capable aviatiors, having an emergency and just letting go of the controls and saying 'it is in the hands of Allah now'. The pilot instructing very quickly took control. Now I know that is not what you perhaps meant but you can see how being fatalistic demonstrates a lack of understanding of the bigger picture.

Don't ignore the facts that don't fit with your dream - it's a dangerous game.

[Prophead]

BA asking people to work for free and cutting wages, KLM asking pilots to work as baggage handlers, who knows what else is going on in other airlines. All this is happening in the summer!

Imagine what will happen to the airlines in the winter, especially with rising oil prices and interest rates:eek:

My ATPL training will be done at a leisurely pace without borrowing and with the knowledge that i may never get a flying job. If BA go under then i may as well stop the training and buy a microlight.:\

[TheBeak]

Prophead, good to hear someone in training with a more sensible, realsitic view on things.

All this is happening in the summer!

Imagine what will happen to the airlines in the winter, especially with rising oil prices and interest rateshttp://images.ibsrv.net/ibsrv/res/src:www.pprune.org/get/images/smilies/eek.gif


Too true.

[2098]

I bumped into a Terminator earlier on today, he said he was looking for an easyjet captain aged approx 34yrs & miserable. something to do with Judgment day?! :ooh:

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

How about determination. Drive. Energy. Willpower. Persistence. Fearlessness. Self-confidence. Resolve.
How about never giving up on anything that you can't go a day without thinking about?



Total waste of time to an industry that doesn't care.

Join BALPA or face apathy.


WWW

[Right Way Up]

Total waste of time to an industry that doesn't care.

Join BALPA or face apathy.


AMEN! ( I wish it wasn't the truth!)

[quant]

It was close to midnight when Willie Walsh finally emerged from Waterside, British Airways’ sprawling Heathrow headquarters. The airline’s chief executive blinked in the lights of the waiting television crews, cleared his throat, and started to speak, his voice trembling.
“I am sorry to say that despite our efforts today we have been unable to secure further funding from our banks. The cash drain we sustained as a result of the rolling programme of industrial action by cabin crew and ground staff means we can no longer continue as a going concern. British Airways has this evening been put into administration.”
Could British Airways really go bust or not? - Times Online (http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/transport/article6543863.ece)

Branson to ministers: let BA go bust

Sir Richard Branson has rubbed salt in British Airways’ wounds by declaring BA practically worthless, and urging the government to resist any attempts to bail it out.
Branson’s comments will incense BA management, which this week will hold vital talks with cabin crew and ground staff over pay cuts, lay-offs and changes to working conditions aimed at saving £100m a year.
Branson to ministers: let BA go bust - Times Online (http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/transport/article6544321.ece)

:E

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Miserable?

My lifes a dream mate.

Its real life for Wannabes thats depressing.


WWW

[quant]

Its real life for Wannabes thats depressing.

I'm sorry WWW but i am one of those wannabes you speak off and i am quite happy thank you very much ;)

I'll wait for the upturn even though that maybe 3-5 years away in the meantime i'll complete my training and keep current :cool:

[TheBeak]

With the greatest respect though quant, you say you started on £50K a year as a quant so you aren't the average wannabe. The average wannabe feels they MUST train integrated and tap someone up with the burden of a huge debt.

[quant]

With the greatest respect though quant, you say you started on £50K a year as a quant so you aren't the average wannabe. The average wannabe feels they MUST train integrated and tap someone up with the burden of a huge debt.

fair enough however i define an average wannabe to be someone that aspires to get into the left hand seat..

:ok:

[TheBeak]

Yeah but we aren't talking about ambitions, we are talking about ones ability to fund training and risk manage the whole process.

[wobble2plank]

Sir Richard Branson has rubbed salt in British Airways’ wounds by declaring BA practically worthless, and urging the government to resist any attempts to bail it out.
Branson’s comments will incense BA management, which this week will hold vital talks with cabin crew and ground staff over pay cuts, lay-offs and changes to working conditions aimed at saving £100m a year.

Made me chuckle, also makes me wonder how long it will be before Mandelson makes Sir Dickie master of the Governments spin machine!

Perhaps the bearded one should get his own house in order first? The 'creative' accounting of Virgin with its 10 month 'profit' was a classic Sir Dickie move. Oddly enough the Singapore Airlines figures didn't quite show the same profit or valuation? Wonder why? Also VA seem to be in the midst of a rather drastic flight crew and cabin crew cull themselves which, proportional to the size of the company, is somewhat more drastic even that BA's proposed cuts. All classic bearded woolly pulley wearing ones spin.

The best was the 'we were considering buying BA when the share price dropped below 100', that stands with the 'give Concorde to us, we'll fly it if BA won't!' and that was after Airbus had pulled their engineering support for it! There was no way it was ever going to fly again without an engineering sponsor and Branson knew it. Public weren't to know that though and bought it hook, line and sinker. Branson is deeply in the poo and his creditors have recently given him a stay of execution. He needs to pull a rabbit out of a hat and it seems he is trying his best here.

Interesting few months ahead I feel.

[Zippy Monster]

How about determination. Drive. Energy. Willpower. Persistence. Fearlessness. Self-confidence. Resolve.

This - that entire post, in fact - sounds like something from one of those self-help tapes. You can just hear the deep drawling American voice with the soft music playing in the background... thank you, however, for not adding the word "passion" to that list and saving my screen another load of vomit.

I am someone who believes in hope and faith and what is meant to be is meant to be and that any situation can be turned around as long as we all believe.

So that's where I went wrong last Autumn when I was told I wasn't getting my contract...

For all the nice sentiment and blind optimism there, believe me you would be feeling very different if you'd just finished your training and ended up on the cadet pilot scrapheap like those laid off last winter. Well done for getting on the course, respect to your decision to go ahead with it, but proceed with caution and listen to what people are saying on here. It's a great course, the instructors are excellent, you'll have a top time while you're training. But too many people who have seen the nice fancy PR videos and presentations have a sharp reality check when they come out at the other end and are forced to wait with eye-watering debts which are racking up interest, and a year's wait for a 6-month contract.

Enjoy the course, but go in with your eyes open and just think about it.

And join BALPA. Particularly as it's free to student pilots.

[2098]

Miserable?

My lifes a dream mate.

Its real life for Wannabes thats depressing.


WWW

I know you harp on about in on a regular basis; I’ve a feeling that you are your own biggest fan 'mate' ;)

Thing is you keep being a prophesier of doom and yet your living 'the dream' as you so modestly put it, having done exactly what all the wannabe's have set out to do...become an airline pilot. Is it a case of nerr nerrr na ner nur I've got it and your all going to burger world?

It’s not your advice that’s the problem it’s your attitude.

[flying_shortly]

It’s not your advice that’s the problem it’s your attitude.

Very well put!

WWW, I can't put it as eloquently. I think you're an :mad:hole...

[redsnail]

I can remember when WWW was an instructor hoping for his big break.

Like or loath his message, it is a very good counter point to the happy glossy brochures you'll get from the "big boys" trying to convince you to part with a lot of money.

[TwinAisle]

S'funny how many attack the messenger when they don't like the message...

Still agree with WWW. I'm executive management with an airline, and I would LOVE him to be wrong, since that would mean my life would be easier.

But he's not. Sorry.

TA

[quant]

Yeah but we aren't talking about ambitions, we are talking about ones ability to fund training and risk manage the whole process.

OK understood :ok:

Very well put!

WWW, I can't put it as eloquently. I think you're an http://images.ibsrv.net/ibsrv/res/src:www.pprune.org/get/images/smilies/censored.gifhole...

TBH i think the above statement is out of order. WWW is an experienced pilot who is offering his opinion with regards to the current wannabe situation. If you don't like it fine but don't resort to the use of a profanity to put your point across :=

The current situation is dire but we live in hope that one day it will get better :)

:p

[TheBeak]

Well said to the last three posters. I believe what WWW is demonstrating when he says he has a kid and a pool on the way and a secure captaincy position with a good airline is that he has absolutely no axe to grind.

[A and C]

The last remarks that you made have to be the most negative that I have seen from you, truly a new high (or is it low) in doom & gloom.

Quote

How about determination. Drive. Energy. Willpower. Persistence. Fearlessness. Self-confidence. Resolve.
How about never giving up on anything that you can't go a day without thinking about?

WWW Quote

Total waste of time to an industry that doesn't care.


These are atributes that will stand you in good sted, (may be not in the land that has been duped by the orange propaganda mill) but you can still find places that let the pilots fly the aircraft without the autothrottle engaged and expect you to do visual approches rather than drive around miles of sky because of FDM fear.
These airlines dont have the lesbian PMT bitch from hell running pilot recruting, pilots do that! and these are always the best places to work.

To drive the final nail into WWW's look back at black history I will list my progress over the years.

1991 first airline job, in the engineers seat
1995 Move to a window seat (did a bit of P2 or E1 as required)
1998 Move to left window seat
1999 Move airlines- company fails (late 1999)
2000 Get new job on biger faster jet
2003 Comand on above jet
2008 Move to the French all electric jet (what a pile of sh** that is to fly!)
2008 (late) company fails
2009 Move company with jet that has pilot conected to flying controls with steel cables (aircraft also flys faster ,higher, longer from shorter runways & with bigger payload than French all electric jet!)

Without some of the red print above I would not be flying (not managing) a jet airliner, things in the business are going to be tough but these qualitys matter in the companys who expect pilots who can fly aircraft rather than managers for autopilots.

[flying_shortly]

Oh, come on.... It's a bit of tongue in cheek...

Maybe had I stuck in a few smilies you would have copped I wasn't being all that serious...

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Those remarks are well considered though.

The industry rapidly is stopping caring. New FO's are simply a profit centre for the airline accountants who have worked out that people will do the job for free for six months and then can be tossed back to the dole queue without a hitch.


Do you have a license?
Do you have a medical?
Do you have £20,000 to give us?
Do you want to sign this temporary contract?



Your drive and energy is a nostalgic notion of how things used to be back in the good old days.

Sad. But true.



WWW


ps I fly Autopilot off, Autothrust off every day of work (if no fog) and I believe its encouraged A and C so I'm not sure what you're on about..

[2098]

Be careful in here shortly not much room for humour. Everyone knows there is a recession and there will be one again in ten years or so. I can’t really see where WWW and his cronies are coming from though? I’ve read lots of posts and it appears to me they just like reading their own gibberish. I’m yet to meet a poor wannabe who's parents have been evicted from their home

Anyway most wannabe's are well over the age of 21 and intelligent and mature enough to understand the risks involved in flight training. On my course the average age was approx 28years most had been to university and had decent careers or ran their own business etc. Some just had loadsa money...

This place is filled with idiots all standing on a soap box trying to outdo each other with predictions of an economic thermonuclear explosion...get over it, it aint gonna happen.

Things are 'bad' right now whether your a burger flipper or a big cheese big ego redundant pilot but there aint many starving fatpl holders yeah some are working as baggage handlers or cabin crew scraping by boo whoo whoo. There are people who are far worse off even when the economy is booming!

I'm not going to quote Hitler but here’s one from Arnie

"Asta La Vista Weasley"

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

No offense taken - this is only PPRuNe after all..


WWW

[clear prop!!!]

www

My lifes a dream mate.

I think that just about sums it up...

We've heard all the "I'm all rIght Jack" statements from www, time and time and time again, but, "the rest of you are in the ****..'cos I told you ...and... I'm always right you plonkers" is a 'bit' of a bad attitude!!

As it happens,..I agree with some, if not a lot, of what the small Welshman says, but attitude is just a 'bit' of a problem, which brings out the worst in the rest of us.

It's not WHAT you say sometimes, but the way that you say it, that gains you respect.

[A and C]

Well WWW the things I hear and what you say are somewhat at odds, I have first hand accounts of FO's being told to keep all the automatics in untill 300 ft because the Captains fear the FDR poilce.

However this is not what this thread is about, you are taking the very black and pesimistic view of things in aviation indistry.

At the start of my career an old and very wise Flight Engineer said to me "things are never as good or as bad as they seem at the time". I see the industry as having a tough time with a lot of people not getting jobs, the worst placed are those who have spent a lot of money at the pilot factorys.
Those doing the modular thing are much better placed.

Some of us have bucked the trend, some of us see a future in this industry, some of are motivated to help those trying to get ahead with practical help and some of us seem to be full of gloom & doom.

A little balance is what I seek your motives I am not sure of but if everyone followed your advice and did not train when the upturn comes the pilot shortage would push up wages and the whole cycle would start once more.

I cant help wondering if this is just like your house speculation, but I have to say I admire you if you fly the way you say you do, a lot on your company would not have the balls to do so!

[ba038]

Wow , what a post by A and C.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

I find it hard to view as ballsy flying the Bus in the exact same way you fly the Boeing but hey. Personally I love FDM as it kills cowboys.

You want to paint a brighter picture then me - great. Fill your boots. The debate is the thing of unique value here. Individuals opinions matter less than reading the argument ebb and flow.


Cheers

WWW

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Well I can't help what tone something is read in. Its a limitation of the medium.

Quite a few people asserted many times that I must be a pessimistic miserable man with a negative attitude to life. That I must live under a cloud.

I merely tried to suggest that this isn't the case and that I'm a very happy man with plenty to be cheerful about.

At the end of the day its not a popularity contest here.


Cheers

WWW

[A and C]

It is not the way you fly the aircraft that is in your words "ballsy" it is the fact that you say that you fly visual aproaches with the automatics out, a lot of people don't do this for fear of the FDM police.

On the whole I agree with you about FDM killing the "cowboys", that is one of the advantages but some company's use it to beat the pilots, not as a flight safety trend tool. The result is the if not used correctly FDM results in the de-skilling of the flight crew as they are reluctent to take out the automatics and keep in practice. I have no fear of letting a new FO do a totaly manual visual approach as I wont find an email asking me to explain my actions when I get home if he gets a few knots astray of bug just so long as corrective action is being taken.

So what is the link between FDM policy and the Wannabe?

It is not a suprize to me that these tend to be the companys that have large HR departments and cadet programs that are relient on the "pilot factorys" to provide people who are paying to sit in the FO's seat.

The last company I worked for had a tie up with Oxford (who like CTC offer quality training at a high cost) but the type rating cost was paid by the FO in a way that was affordable as the new pilot had no bank charges or tax to pay on the money, this resulted in the type rating being about 30% cheaper in real terms.

I guess that it is all down to the way your company sees the pilot, are you a professional asset to the company or a potental proffit centre?

Off to work now.......................were did I put those boots & spurs?

[quant]

I’m yet to meet a poor wannabe who's parents have been evicted from their home lol they are hardly likely to come on pprune and say that they have lost their home infact after such an event i'm sure internet connectivity isn't their main priority.

Japan Airlines, the loss-making Asian giant, is to receive a $1 billion government-backed loan to tide it over while management struggles to concoct a “crisis plan” to save the company.
But analysts said that the former state-owned carrier was unlikely to undertake the sort of drastic reform it needs because of pressure from the Government to remain in the role of public service.
Unusually for Japan, the loan will come with the overt condition that JAL visibly improves the way the company is run – to the satisfaction of the Government itself, much like the company operated before privatisation.
That restructuring process is expected to see a significant portion of its existing route network “scrutinised”, though not necessarily cut back, along with other long-overdue changes to management structure.
Japan Airlines gets $1bn government bailout - Times Online (http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/transport/article6553359.ece)

will BA go the same way? :oh:

Troubled SkyEurope files for creditor protection

Embattled Central European budget carrier SkyEurope Airlines (http://www.flightglobal.com/landingpage/skyeurope%20airlines.html) has voluntarily filed for creditor protection by a Slovak court in order to restructure its troubled operations.
The carrier says it will continue "full operation" of flight schedules, preserve jobs and honour both current and future air tickets.
SkyEurope says the decision to file with the Bratislava district court will give the company "time to improve liquidity" and restructure its debts. The airline says these debts have been "a barrier" to external investors.
Chief executive Jason Bitter says the filing is a "good step" for the airline, allowing it to operate without disruption during the reorganisation process.
Troubled SkyEurope files for creditor protection (http://www.flightglobal.com/articles/2009/06/22/328612/troubled-skyeurope-files-for-creditor-protection.html)

:sad:

UPDATE 1-Virgin Atlantic orders 10 Airbus A330 jets


* Says deal worth $2.1 billion
* Five aircraft to be delivered in 2011, five in 2012
(Writes through)
HEATHROW, England, June 22 (Reuters) - Privately-owned airline Virgin Atlantic [VA.UL] has placed an order for 10 Airbus A330-300 aircraft (EAD.PA (http://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks/overview?symbol=EAD.PA)), the company told Reuters on Monday ahead of an official announcment at London's Heathrow airport.


UPDATE 1-Virgin Atlantic orders 10 Airbus A330 jets | Industries | Industrials, Materials & Utilities | Reuters (http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssIndustryMaterialsUtilitiesNews/idUSLM71154620090622)

:E

[Screwballs]

I am just guessing here but are those first hand accounts from recent ATP cadets? There is a reason that Captains preferred those "pilots" to keep the automatics in. Nothing to do with FDM, more to do with living to retirement. And I have that first hand too...

How much time have you spent in the Orange Paradise to judge it so well?

And if may be so bold as to semi-quote WWW; "Join BALPA and face apathy."

S.

my powder is dry

[Zippy Monster]

I'm pretty low-hours and fly for the big orange airline, and not once has a commander insisted I keep the automatics in until 300ft... in fact, possibly the most used phrase since the weather has improved has been "if you want to finish visually, it's fine by me..."

What has FDM got to do with visual approaches? It doesn't matter what type of approach you do, if you do it properly you won't be flagged up on the FDM.

Anyway, I thought this thread was supposed to be debating the merits of the CTC Wings scheme. Could anybody explain what this "I get to do more hand flying than you" willy-waving contest has got to do with anything?

[A and C]

Your views about the FDM and the reports that I get from a number of people are somewhat at odds.

I cant help thinking that you may well have not been around long enough to know how the rest of the industry works outside the big orange. I have over the years had to fly around IFR STAR's behind countless Orange aircraft in perfect VMC waisting lots of fuel & airframe time because the aircraft ahead don't seem to want to "go Visual"

To quote you "if you want to finish visually, it's fine by me..."

But how far away from the runway will this start? 5 mine final?, downwind? 10,000ft?

This is not as you say a "willy waving" contest but a question of how you would cope if the automatics quit? As the RAF are so keen on saying flying is a perishable skill and you should ask if the FDM policy is getting in the way of your flying practice.


As you say you will have no problems with the FDM if all is within the limits but minor deviations seem to pull up instant emails from the FDM police or so I am told. This is not the way the system should work, unless a situation shows disregard for the rules and a clear danger it should not be raised with the crew. FDM should be used for trend monitoring, the results published and then acted upon by the training department.

So onto the "what has this got to do with CTC"?

Well not a lot directly but the you have to question the value of getting tied into a deal that gets you some line training with a company that is so tightly regulated. The chances of getting a well rounded line training are slim and just as you start to make friends with the aircraft you are put into a hold pool and left with the prospect of paying yet more money to keep in check.

Please don't think that it is just the Orange ones I am questioning, it is the whole training industry that is putting people in huge amounts of debt for very little return and I think that the stance that some airlines have taken in selling the right seat is rather distastfull.
It just seems to me that this sharp practice, too much HR input into pilot recrutment and agressive FDM seem to go together producing a rather unhappy workplace.

Thirty years ago a few rich kids that I was assosiated with paid for a type rating to "get ahead" of the pack, this snowballed and the end result is people are now paying to work!....................... I dispair!

[Screwballs]

A and C said These are atributes that will stand you in good sted, (may be not in the land that has been duped by the orange propaganda mill)...
These airlines dont have the lesbian PMT bitch from hell running pilot recruting, pilots do that! and these are always the best places to work.


I get it now... somebody failed to get into the Orange Mill. That must really bite considering some of the muppets they let in these days. It explains the chip on both shoulders.

And going back to the dreamers, I haven't known WWW to be wrong very often, he just doesn't blow smoke up the posterior like the flightschools.

S.

[A and C]

Just in case you are wondering I have never even filled out an Easyjet application form.................. so wrong on that one!

The lesbian PMT bitch was from another airline that in veiw of the style of interview I was unable to offer them the position of my employer.

As for WWW a lot of truth in what he has said but if we all heeded his advice the whole industry would pack up it's tent and go away, things are not as bad as he says and if he had been around in the 90's and I had taken his advice I would not have a jet airliner command.

What this industry needs is people with drive and determination, not the those with negative attitudes, balance is required.

[TheBeak]

lot of truth in what he has said but if we all heeded his advice the whole industry would pack up it's tent and go away

This really isn't the thread for this discussion. However, there will always be necessity to fly. And it would do the industry ALOT of good if fewer people were training. There are way too many people in training and there needs to be more selection and filtration of the people starting.

The lesbian PMT bitch

As for those, they exist everywhere and are really the ones with the chips on their shoulders.

WWW and A and C you both, it would seem have done nicely out of your flying careers, make sure you continue to enjoy them and continue to offer your valued inputs to these threads. I know some training captains who very actively encourage hand flying and some who are vehermently against it saying we had no place to do so, all within the same organisation. Horses for courses. Personally I don't see anything wrong with it at all, it's the job but I don't see the need for people to hand fly the plane up to FL150 like I have heard some guys do. You are paid to fly the aircraft comfortably and commercially, it's not time for fun.

[Alex Whittingham]

I think I'm with A and C on this one. I've operated in the 'don't take the automatics out they're far better than you are at flying the aircraft' environment and in the older style of cockpit. The first only works when everything is going to plan, the second is a little more difficult to manage in a modern multi-sector environment but, in my view, pays dividends in the long term. Yes, hand flying is a perishable skill, if you don't practice it it won't be there when you need it. Airlines have very short term views, they tend not to see the long term.

WWW is a bit of a gloomy b*gger but he's right in several senses, the cowboys, and there are many of them, do need to be controlled. He's also right in that this piloting thing turns into a glorified bus drivers job fairly quickly, and right again that the industry doesn't care but, in truth, it never did.

[Sciolistes]

What has FDM got to do with visual approaches? It doesn't matter what type of approach you do, if you do it properly you won't be flagged up on the FDM.

Anyway, I thought this thread was supposed to be debating the merits of the CTC Wings scheme. Could anybody explain what this "I get to do more hand flying than you" willy-waving contest has got to do with anything?
Well said Zippy, this thread is heading off in a very misleading and irrelevant direction. Best stick get back to the subject of CTC :ok:

[dwshimoda]

Things are 'bad' right now whether your a burger flipper or a big cheese big ego redundant pilot but there aint many starving fatpl holders yeah some are working as baggage handlers or cabin crew scraping by boo whoo whoo. There are people who are far worse off even when the economy is booming!


Sorry, but you know nothing. As possibly one of the last lucky ones to get a job, I fear for it every day having already lost it once. The biggest problem with this thread is people do not want to hear what they do not want to hear. Fine - stick your head in the sand - but that's not a particularly good attribute for the flight deck...

[one post only!]

Is this the CTC thread or a FDM, friend or foe thread?

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

I've just added in about 16 posts to this thread that came from the CTC discussion thread on the other forum. This was to reduce thread tangent. Some of the comments now don't make strict sense but then some of them never did.. ;-)


WWW

[A and C]

Quote

Personally I don't see anything wrong with it at all, it's the job but I don't see the need for people to hand fly the plane up to FL150 like I have heard some guys do. You are paid to fly the aircraft comfortably and commercially, it's not time for fun.

Its all about balance, under the right conditions hand flying the aircraft to FL150 and above is OK and if you are in practice no one in the back will know, however if it is very busy and avoiding CB's use of the automatics are more appropriate.

In turbulence on approach the automatics are usualy not the way to go as a well practiced pilot can "ride" the turbulence and produce a much smoother approach than the automatics and it is important to get a feel for the conditions of the day, take out the autopilot at 300 ft on a gusty day and you will have an uphill struggle to get a good landing.

[Artie Fufkin]

I don't see the need for people to hand fly the plane up to FL150Autopilots can fail at FL150.

We had an incident a few years back at the airline I work for that was directly blamed on the captains total lack of experience of handling the aircraft manually at altitude. The type I fly feels very different at FL200 than 200ft.

[TheBeak]

Autopilots can fail at FL150.


Sh*t you're kidding me right!:eek: Now and then fine practice it but not all the time is all I am saying.

take out the autopilot at 300 ft on a gusty day and you will have an uphill struggle to get a good landing.

Very much agreed.

We had an incident a few years back at the airline I work for that was directly blamed on the captains total lack of experience of handling the aircraft manually at altitude. The type I fly feels very different at FL200 than 200ft.

As always knowledge is power, I am not saying be a :mad: and never fly the thing, just not all the time. Contrary to popular belief what you don't know CAN hurt you.

An interesting document for anyone interested follows. Good for interview brush ups too!

High-Altitude Handling (http://www.boeing.com/commercial/aeromagazine/aero_02/textonly/fo01txt.html)

[quant]

Interesting thread:

http://www.pprune.org/professional-pilot-training-includes-ground-studies/378867-starting-regret.html

[2098]

Theres nothing interesting about that thread. The world does not owe any cpl holder a job.:ugh:

Most airline interviewers spent years looking for their first airline job. Its just how the cookie crumbles. Survival of the fittest deal with it.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Nobody is owed job correct. But when you daily work with very able, very high calibre CPL IR holders who are in £60k holes and working as £15k aircraft despatchers you gain a perspective which disinclines you to encourage others to follow in their tragic footsteps.

The no hopers on that thread have existed in boom times as well as bust and will be a constant feature.

Survival of the fittest is apt. The fittest of the last 18 months are those that have not expended energy wastefully achieving goals which have proved pointless.


WWW

[2098]

I have spent the past 18months getting a lovely fatpl. Currently unemployed, 70k debt. Things can only get better :eek:

I wouldnt encourage anyone to go and do an integrated course now or ever, but if they are aware of the huge risk involved and make the decision to do it, then that's their problem.

Some people walk into the nearest fto thinking they will walk back out 56weeks later and straight into a job at ba......silly billies..

:)

[quant]

The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) has revised down its forecast for the UK economy in 2009.
It warns that the UK is in "a sharp recession" with output set to contract by 4.3% in 2009, worse than its previous forecast of a 3.7% fall.
The OECD predicts zero growth in the UK economy in 2010 and says the UK budget deficit will hit 14% of GDP next year.
BBC NEWS | Business | UK economy 'set to shrink faster' (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8117013.stm)

Some people walk into the nearest fto thinking they will walk back out 56weeks later and straight into a job at ba......silly billies..Were you one of those people :confused:;):p

[2098]

Not quite, I knew I wasn't going straight to BA ;)

[A and C]

I am sorry to say that your last post was just about the most arrogant, judgmental and negative outpouring that I have seen in a long time.

I gag when I see this sort of superior all knowing advice and sentiment dished up by the self appointed good and great, to describe any ones efforts in any form of education as tragic footsteps and expended energy wastefully achieving goals which have proved pointless.

Having grown up in the early 70's and had the "benefit" of a state education the appalling quality of which is now the subject of a number of recent social historic academic works I can tell you a little about "tragic".

The education and preparation for life that these schools gave was very poor , in short I and a lot of other people had an education that only set us up for failure, imposed upon us by an arrogant but (I suppose?) well meaning middle class teachers who of course sincerely offered poor advice that completely undermined any sort of self confidence an further ambition......................

If you really want to see tragic footsteps then just take a look at the friends reunited page for my school, a whole bunch people who did not even come near reaching there full potential largely because they believed the "advice" from the self appointed experts.

Like WWW I don't think the integrated course is the way to go at the moment
and would advise a slow modular route while keeping a job, what I won't do is deride peoples efforts to better then selves and batter guys self confidence with posts like the one above.

As one who school no doubt put in WWW's no hopers pigeon hole I can tell you is was tough in the late 80's & early 90's especially when you had as I three tenths of :mad: all in the way of qualifications but if you guys just keep at it the economic worm will turn in your favour.

Just remember guys the situation at the moment is a bit "tragic" ......................what you have embarked upon is NOT despite the efforts of some to tell you otherwise.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Well that's quite a rant.

Do you think I went to Eton or something? Several of my year and two of my class have done long stretches for drugs and violence. I have the distinction of being the ONLY student who gained an A grade at A-level in my school - it was not good. We could do a 'three yorkshiremen' sketch about the shortcomings of our schools all day A&C and neither of us would win..

My reference to the 'pointless goals' was limited to the people who have worked so hard and spent so much to gain CPL/IR's in the last 18 months. These time expiring qualifications have been pointlessly acquired at great time, skill and cost against a background of near zero employment prospects. That is all I wanted to illustrate to those thinking about imminently following suit.

The fit that survive will be the ones who have delayed their training and whom will enter the employment market at the appropriate time. Thats the brutal truth.

A&C you ALWAYS perceive what I write as being arrogant, judgmental and negative and you often pop up to say so. Do you never look at my posting record and note the times when I've described the current climes as being 'a golden age for wannabes' or see the times I've described the job as ' the best in the world'.

There are peaks and troughs in this industry for Wannabes. My decade+ record here shows that I trumpet both.

Without shame I pump out a negative message at present. I have been proved right to have done so. Even without that the message is but a whisper in the storm of spin and marketing which is directed by the Vested Interests towards Wannabes.


WWW

[Mikehotel152]

WWW - 2 years ago you were saying it was a good time to start training. In my experience 2 years is about the length of time it takes a person to go from Zero to Hero on the modular route. I followed your advice and recently got a job. :ok:

Is it not the case that we all agree that starting integrated courses in the current climate is bonkers unless you're wealthy, and even if you go modular, take it slow and plan for a period of unemployment? Perhaps A and C simply rejects your attitude to the whole recession thing, rather than the message you convey - but we've already discussed that issue ad infinitum and ad nauseam. :p

[A and C]

If what Mikehotel152 has to say is true is rather points to your posts of two years ago being advice that would set up people for the tragic failure that you talk of and plunged them into the job market at this hopeless time.

I am very pleased that MH152 has bucked the trend and now has a job, this is no doubt due to hard work and determination.

Any way I shall keep "popping up" and having the odd rant when I think that you have overstepped the mark, in the meantime I will continue to offer encouragement and practical help to wannabes tempered with realistic view of the state of the business.

[PPRuNe Towers]

Practical as in run your business which garners income from wannabees?

Or practical in that you never miss a chance to plug that business here on PPRuNe?

Or practical as in steering wannabees towards choices that require an element of hour building for most?

PPRuNe will remain a counterpoint to those who make their living from wannabees.

Rob

[A and C]

Yes I do run a business that supplys a service to wannabes and yes I will plug it when I get the chance.

I like to think that I offer a quality product at a keen price, but of course profit is a dirty word in the UK but without it nothing at all would happen.

However my customers have already decided upon the modular route by the time they get to the hours building stage, the practical help that I give is far beond just renting very clean and well maintained aircraft, Just ask my customers because they are the best publicity that I have.

Oh thanks for the chance the plug my business:ok::ok:

[PPRuNe Towers]

Thanks for that A+C,

You've amply displayed how so many of the voices here have an agenda. A business succeeding regardless of whether there are any jobs for wannabees to graduate to.

Rob

[Deano777]

A and C

Sorry but you are losing credibility here. It really is amazing how alot of the "dispellers" of what WWW is saying are people who make money from wannabes, who are quick to defend the industry no matter what state the economy is in, who are quick to rubbish anyone who dares to tell people not to train, who are quick to call impartial people like WWW arrogant.
The common denominator here is that these people are people who have something to gain out of wannabes like yourself. Your opinions are based on an ulterior motive, and that motive is to make money.

Anyone with ½ a brain will know it isn't a good time to train. You know it, and I know it.

However that "good time" may not be far away. But for now I'd listen to WWWs advice over yours any day of the week.

Have a great weekend.

D777

[heli_port]

Hi everyone, i haven't posted in a while as i've been busy at OAA. Coming close to the end of my OAA course (just got a first time pass in my IR ;)). No sign of a job :suspect: but i do have an interview with Flybe :ooh: (no way i'm going anywhere near RA)

I'll keep you posted if i do get a job however it's really tough out there :8

[2 Whites 2 Reds]

Heli Port.....

Firstly, sincere congrats on the first time IR pass...nice work! Just a quicky on the Flybe interview you mentioned? I thought they had totally stopped recruiting? I've just finished my CPL and am about to start my IR at one of Flybe's 'favourite' school's (Cabair, FTE, OAA, Atlantic, Aero's, PTC and PAT)..... aparantly they've said they aren't taking any recommendations or referrals for the forseeable future from any of the above mentioned FTO's??? Interesting news if Flybe are still taking recommendations from OAA. Not sure how they are fairing at the moment but they seem to be very busy at EGHI even though they're summer schedule has been cut here and there.

Very best of luck with the interview, I work on the ramp at Southampton (one of Flybe's main base's) and they seem a friendly and vibrant airline to work for so wish you all the best mate!

2W2R :ok:

[flying_shortly]

Do you think I went to Eton or something? Several of my year and two of my class have done long stretches for drugs and violence. I have the distinction of being the ONLY student who gained an A grade at A-level in my school - it was not good. We could do a 'three yorkshiremen' sketch about the shortcomings of our schools all day A&C and neither of us would win..
You're full of :mad:. I swear if you could award the nobel lauriate for aviation greats you'd award yourself. This thread should be renamed 'How great is WWW.. (http://WWW..).' He has a swimming pool, pilot job, came from a bad school and dispenses all his knowledge to us feeble beings aspiring to the good life.

WWW, we are not worthy....

You've got an inferiority complex mate. Stop ego :mad:nking. Please...

[TheBeak]

Flying_Shortly shut up you ignoramus, you're the one with the inferiority complex. You don't even know the guy. He speaks nothing but the facts, if you don't like it, don't read it. And don't say you are kidding again, number one, alot of truth is said in jest and number 2, you've said it countless times. It contributes nothing. You are probably working for an FTO, you seem like the sort. Now pipe down.

but i do have an interview with Flybe

Again that isn't as a pilot is it? I have mates working there (as pilots) who say there is definately no recruitment until at least the beginning of next year and that was backed up by the HR lady there. If you have managed to get one as a pilot you should go and buy a lottery ticket because you are VERY lucky, especally having finished so recently.

[Artie Fufkin]

Using phrases such as "no hopers" and suggesting that those currently finishing their fATPL studies are not "the fittest" doesn't exactly make the target audience want to sit up and listen. People will read their own context.

No matter how correct the message, nor how noble the cause, if it isn't delivered in a way that will make people want to listen...

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Au Contraire


The reference to no hopers was specific to the postings where people couldn't master basic spelling. This is an ongoing theme in aviation training. Those that have the money, spend the money, but will never earn the money. Seen it, taught it, talk about it.

Survival of the fittest was once again a comment on someone elses posting. The most fit right now are the ones who HAVE NOT spent any money getting an IR or an ATPL exam sequence. They are fit because their PPL and CPL and hours do not expire - they merely exist in a logbook, forever at no cost. Those that have acquired a Multi rating or an Instrument Rating are counting down against a £392hr clock.


I make people sit up and listen.


You just don't necessarily like it.



3 years ago I was pumping out the message to do an Integrated course, apply to CTC and to self sponsor your type rating if need be. I called it 'a golden age for wannabesim'.

Read your own context as is your right. But without knowing your history you're only going to make yourself look ignorant.

WWW



ps Flying_Shortly - now you mention it, you're not worthy, you're banned for a week - goodbye. :E

[piky]

Quote 'ps Flying_Shortly - now you mention it, you're not worthy, you're banned for a week - goodbye. http://images.ibsrv.net/ibsrv/res/src:www.pprune.org/get/images/smilies/evil.gif

So why did you bar him WWW? Ah, just got it...Because you can!

Regards:suspect:

[student88]

I think it was more to do with the unnecessary use of offensive language. If you can't express yourself without using those sort of words, (even if they're covered up with an emoticon) don't express yourself at all.

[quant]

The reference to no hopers was specific to the postings where people couldn't master basic spelling.HAVE NOT spent any monty:E

(sorry couldn't resist)


Survival of the fittest was once again a comment on someone elses posting. The most fit right now are the ones who HAVE NOT spent any monty getting an IR or an ATPL exam sequence. They are fit because their PPL and CPL and hours do not expire - they merely exist in a logbook, forever at no cost. Those that have acquired a Multi rating or an Instrument Rating are counting down against a £392hr clock.
I think it comes down to the issue of money. If you can afford to keep yourself current then I would rather be on the 'keeping current' rather than the training end of the proverbial drag curve. Personally I’m going to buy a share in an aircraft once my licenses are done (probably a da42) and keep current and building hours.


:}

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

student88 - please point me towards the offensive language so I can moderate it.

Thanks,


WWW

[Artie Fufkin]

You just don't necessarily like it.I am totally disinterested. I am neither a wannabe nor someone who works at an FTO. Whether I like the message or not is irrelevant.

For the record, I understand what you are trying to do here, agree with it and admire your efforts towards what is quite obviously a thankless task. However... if you are interested in reaching the target audience (the person just about to sign on the dotted line) then I beleive more could be acheived by toning down the rhetoric, which has become particularly strong recently.

Is the message really getting through? I see that Oxford is putting on an extra course due to not being able to meet demand on its August / September Integrated course!! :eek:

You hear lots of people saying that they don't even read pprune anymore because of the relentless slagging off of anyone who wants to train. As such, no matter how much good advice is given here, it won't even reach those most in need of hearing it. And all because its just delivered in such a rude way.

Flying Shortly's last post quite deservedly earned him "a rest" for his language, however, his feelings represent the silent majority here of hundreds of wannabes who equally deservedly feel a bit miffed at being called all manner of names for daring to suggest they want to fly professionally.

How about greater emphasis of the fact that the recruitment cycle by its very nature means things will inevitably pick up again at some time in the future? And that successful and enjoyable careers in aviation will still be there for those people willing to sit out this downturn for however long it lasts.

More people would listen.

[quant]

well said artie :D

[unwiseowl]

things will inevitably pick up again

Will they? In one year? In five years? Never? My guess is five years. Based on the fact that housing market correction has barely begun, that public spending cuts are yet to be implemented and that unemployement is predicted to get much worse. Plus, Mervyn King is not happy about the way government is stoking up the debt. And there are still concerns about the sate of the banks

It doesn't matter what you think of WWW and his attitude - the fact is, he has no axe to grind and clearly, he knows what he's talking about.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Artie - I'm not Jesus Christ. I used to be, I used to strive to be balanced, measured, always offer encouragement and be as positive as possible in a complex world.

Scroggs was like that. Loads of Mods have been like that. But it kills you. It is a chore. A millstone that drags you down.

The reason why I'm about the only Mod left standing from the original line up is that I don't filter my views and I no longer maintain an image. I post what I think and plenty hate me for it. But its so much easier internally. More rewarding. More honest.

PPRuNe make you brutal. You start ignoring PM's instead of composing a crafted personal reply. You start culling posts not with a scalpal but with a flame thrower. You stop worrying about people calling you names and just figure that two years from now it'll be someone else calling you different names.

Artie - do you really think PPRuNe could or would want to influence the numbers signing up to OATS? Sure lots of people say they don't read. Then do. And maybe lots don't. And maybe if I shut up more would.

But so what?

This isn't a popularity contest. The website needs fewer not more users.


Its as simple as this.



This is a **** time to start pilot training.



End of sermon.

WWW


PS swearing is a perk. :E

[Cirrus_Clouds]

As said before, I like to concentrate on the positives rather than the negatives on this forum, I'll leave that to the pro's :ok:

So...

Ryanair plan to order 300 a/c by end of this year, true or not, time will tell!

Ryanair to order up to 300 new planes by year-end: O'Leary - Yahoo! News UK (http://uk.news.yahoo.com/18/20090627/tbs-ryanair-to-order-up-to-300-new-plane-5268574.html)


Times will change, you will see, talking about the bad stuff is all too easy, try the positive side. :)

If you enjoy flying, just fly privately until times change, keeping doing something that keeps you current and happy within yourself. Let time decide if the airlines is a wise move or not.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Yeah - I'm not sure about the RYR fleet expansion plan. It could be the ballsiest move since Maverick popped the speedbrake and Jester flew right by. Really - it could. Fortune favours the brave; the time to buy is when there is blood on the streets etc etc.

However, Stelios has blinked and said No. Apply the brakes. Is he cleverer than Michael O Leary. Probably not but maybe. Only time will tell.

History does contain a suprising number of airlines that over expanded into a downturn and bust themselves.

We shall just have to see.


I like talking about the positive side. Last year I had real fears that the worlds banking system might collapse. In the second week of September 2008 it VERY nearly did:

Banking Collapse of 2008: Three weeks that changed the world | Business | The Observer (http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/dec/28/markets-credit-crunch-banking-2008)


That's passed now and my bunker must become the hole for my swimming pool. My sniper rifle can be traded in for a shire horse and the gold buried under my begonias can be dug up and returned to the bank.

The rather more mundane and dull reality can now be confronted. Anemic growth, higher taxes and a rather tedious process of sorting out public sector pensions and other massive and massively boring issues.

There will be some jobs out there for Wannabes. Not many. But some.


WWW

[Cirrus_Clouds]

Totally agree. Well at least we're now all on the right footing/path, sorting all this stuff out now.

Shows what a life style everyone lead before (on risk and greed) and the lack of safety nets in place (pre-Sept. 11th comes to mind). A new financial system will at least minimise this crap from happening again and also have a health/alert system in place. I'm sure that once things start to improve, the pension issues etc will be addressed in a reasonable manner and then flying will then become more realistic.

This will be major problem fixed, but what will be the next for the next recession? Is it possible to have a world without recessions with controlled growth and risk?

What we need to ask is what would have happend if this recession was delayed for a few more years = we would have had a bigger punch in the face.

This may stop people for the mean time getting loans, but my advice would be to try to save as much as possible for the future, therefore reducing your risk and size of loan required.

Be patient and let the governments/financial industries sort out the crap, especially as they caused it.

[jbayfan]

I see WWW can't take criticism. Just deletes posts he doesn't agree with. Maybe I should cancel the $225 USD I pay Pprune for my advertisement every month.

You really are on a power trip.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

I'm really not.


Your deleted post from 21:03 last night was deleted by PPRuNe Towers. You make your living from owning a flying school do you not? If so then perhaps it is understandable that we have differences of opinion.

Unlike the various flying magazines the purchasing of advertising space doesn't dictate the editorial line here.

WWW

[Re-Heat]

Still too much debt in the market and too little new lending.

Consistent with my post of last autumn, and some earlier comments I made last summer, I continue to await year-end results from companies (reporting Feb 2010) before I would call the bottom of this market.

Air travel is a leading indicator of recovery, and cargo / passenger yields are still falling, even if not as rapidly as before.

Ryanair is ordering for the continual Ryanair aircraft trading company that they try to operate. Contrast number of deliveries to Ryanair against number of aircraft operated...they flog them for many times what is paid to Boeing.:ooh:

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Either the banks ain't lending or there is no appetite for housing still.



Weak mortgage lending hits UK housing recovery - Times Online (http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/construction_and_property/article6600881.ece)


Weak mortgage lending hits UK housing recovery

Hopes of a recovery in Britain's battered housing market were dealt a setback today when new data for May revealed a weaker than expected number of mortgage approvals and the lowest rise in lending on record.

A total 43,414 mortgages were approved in May, just up from 43,191 in April, the Bank of England said. Analysts had expected a figure closer to 46,000.

In a further illustration of the continued fragility of the market net mortgage lending during May rose by just £324 million, a third of the level in April and a tenth of the amount loaned at the same time a year ago. The increase was the weakest since records began in April 1993.




The BoE figures show that around £19 billion was being MEW'd (Mortgage Equity Withdrawal) into the general spending economy by 2007. Turning off a £19bn money tap was always going to cause a recession. Unless and until house price inflation returns we are going to have to live with a new, smaller economy, able to support fewer airliners and fewer pilots.

Shoes yet to drop include defaults on commercial mortgages, a slashing of public sector spending/jobs and, crucially, a return to normal levels of interest rates.

WWW

[dublin_eire]

I have been of the opinion for a while that WWW is quoting articles and spouting off opinions to suit his own egotistical agenda there.

I've yet to see the end of the world as we know it.

Hard times; yes.

What the future has in store? Who knows... But I guarantee WWW won't be able to predict where we go with this one. Not even the best in business saw this recession coming. I'm sure not even WWW saw it coming and if he says he did I'd take that with a pinch of salt.

He makes himself out to be a God on this thread and it seems to be an obsession of his. Let him at it. I've no time for people who float their own boats and certainly have no time for those that suck up in the process...

Over and out...

[2 Whites 2 Reds]

Afternoon All,

Well it's certainly true that no-one knows what the future will hold. I've bashed WWW in the past for spouting doom and gloom but sadly most, not all, but most of said doom and gloom has come true. As I've bumbled on through my training I feel like I've matured and had a rude awakening with regards to the state of the airline industry. With that in mind and having just finished my CPL, I'm taking some time out before starting my IR and would advise others to do the same. It's been an awful 12 months and unfortunately I would have to concur with WWW that things are still remarkably fragile. On the plus side things WILL pick up, we don't know when, but things will definitely start getting better in the not too distant future. Something that does bother me is the number of people I seem to see diving head first into an FIC at a cost upwards of £5k but with no real hope of an instructors job on completion. It seems to be seen as a way out but in reality it could well be just a way of going further in debt. It's a great thing to do if you've got some prospect of even part time work from it but if not then it just seems like yet more money spent needlessly.

2W2R :ok:

[hollingworthp]

Delivery of message aside, I cannot dispute WWW's sentiments and I am amazed he has the stamina to keep it up - and I hope he continues to do so even if it saves only a few people from making - IMHO - a poor decision. :ugh:

I think the party may come to an end soon as we must be approaching a potential sky rocket of training loan defaults which will cause the remaining bank(s) providing funding for pricey integrated courses to withdraw these risky products.

When I started integrated training in August 2007, the signs to the layman seemed relatively positive and this thread and its predecessor were not around. Unfortunately the poo hit the proverbial fan 4 months or so before my course finished and all the courses since then have been churning out with little or no prospect of useful employment. Even the former stalwart of Ryanair has dried up.

So I find it amazing that guys & girls (be they direct from school or career changers) are making what appears to me to be such a shocking decision to start training at the moment for a career where their decision making decisions really could be life or death. :confused:

I was incredibly fortunate to be among the last 7 taken on by NetJets and not a day goes by when I don't think about how much this lucky turn of events has saved me from continual sleepless nights worrying about money - and I largely funded my training with savings from my previous employment.

I can definitely identify with ambitious hopefuls wanting to get right on with it - but the necessity for a backup plan by way of a fall back career if/when things don't pan out is stronger than ever.

[Bruce Wayne]

All well and good "wanting" to order 300 aircraft, however, aside from the PR aspect, it has to be taken into context of the orders and option terms.

This doesn't necessarily mean that Ryanair will expand from 200 to 500 aircraft in its fleet.

Without knowing the terms of the options / orders we have no idea over what term these order options will be integrated into the fleet; or if these will be replacing aircraft in the current fleet when maintenance support agreements expire or are due for renewal and current fleet aircraft are returned and shunted down to second and third tier operators, with their aircraft being shunted down to lower tier operators.

Or indeed, what the financial terms negotiated are.

It would be shrew move to negotiate option terms right now when the manufacturers are facing deferred deliveries and reduced orders right now, with options to defer delivery or trade off future positions during the next market upswing is a good move.

However, don't take it that a "want" to place orders for 300 aircraft means it "will" be done and that it means the fleet will "expand" by the amount ordered.

[The Old Fat One]

...crucially, a return to normal levels of interest rates.

WWW much of what you write makes a great deal of sense, but you've commented a couple of time on a return to "normal interest rate levels". Increasingly more and more economists and economic organisations are predicting a slow and protracted climb out of recession. This would tend to suggest low interest rates for a some time yet, similar to Japan's experience over the past two decades.

I'm pretty pessimistic about the immediacy of recovery, but see an extended period of low interest rates as being one of the few silver linings.

If anything is unnatural at the moment, it is the low cost of fuel - and it is quite possible that will rise even within an extended recession.

[Capt Pit Bull]

This is a **** time to start pilot training.

Well, with all due respect to WWW, it's always a **** time to start pilot training.

I rarely post in here, and when I have its usually to recommend people do not attempt to follow this career path. But the fact of the matter is that some people are going to do it anyway. Regardless of the expense, risk, and mediocre career prospects, there will always be people that will give it a go because it's a vocation; there are people that simply must fly.

If you are such an individual, then now is possibly a less **** time than it often is. Forget about who might be hiring in 18 months time; that's always pure conjecture. The only definite is the nature of the training market right now. I don't keep an eye on that side of things anymore, but on past experience downturns usually drive it towards being a buyers market.

Undergoing Pilot training is ultimately an emotional decision. My advice is get off the fence. If you're going to do it, get on with it. If you're not, get serious about some other career and stick with it.

pb

[2 Whites 2 Reds]

The Old FAT One ........
The low interest rate is one of the few saving graces at the moment as you rightly point out. If they were to sharply rise it would be a disaster for households all over the UK.

As for the fuel price.... anyone notice the 3p one hit increase at the pumps week before last? Most of my flying is done around the south coast where there have been several large tankers parked up off the Isle of Wight for weeks waiting for the oil price to rise before coming in to Fawley Refinery. The increase in oil has already started again and I fear it will be the final nail in the coffin for one or two carriers this winter if it continues. :uhoh:

[Bealzebub]

Jbayfan has a very valid point.

He spends $225 a month to advertise on this site. Presumably that is an expense that is calculated to show a profitable return? The point of any advertising is get customers through the door spending their money with you rather than somebody else. It is also a considered investment that hopefully raises the profile of an advertiser within the target audience. I agree that a forum such as this should not simply pander to the wishes of its advertisers in regard to editorial matters. They pay for an advert not for editorial policy. The problem here is that the moderation however infuriating or annoying, should be perceived as balanced and fair. That is by definition the role of moderation or arbitration. Judges, moderators and arbitrators will make decisions that are perceived as unfair to one or other (and sometimes all) parties, from time to time. There is however a problem when the moderator, arbitrator or judge allows the cult of personality to overtake the role itself. I think any comparison to Jesus is perhaps unhelpful in this regard?

The moderator shouldn't normally be the resident opinion driver or expert witness, since that clearly compromises the role. Nothing wrong with being an opinion driver or expert witness, but it corrupts the balance and fairness of that opinion or comment, by hanging the badge of "moderator" on the participant. There is little perception of fairness in an argument when the other party or other parties expert witness is also the presiding judge.

Flying schools, are not fundamentally any different from most other businesses. They survive by profit. That can only happen by keeping customers coming through the door and spending money. It doesn't matter if its a flying school, an estate agent, a stockbroker or a Ferrari dealer. The same fundamentals of business apply. All of these businesses will market and promote their business. Everybody with a TV set and an ounce of wit, knows the economy is in trouble and spending is being strangled by the actual and perceived loss of disposable income, and the rapid and large reduction in the availibility of consumer and business credit. Despite the realities, the businesses will only survive if they can succesfully convince people that now is the right time to invest in flight training, invest in property, buy stocks and shares, and still make those aspirational purchases. They can sell you what you want, not necessarily what you need. It is much harder to to that today than last year, and they will all need to invest a lot of time effort to convince you that your desires should still be fulfilled and satisfied.

The problem flying schools and their customers face, although they naturally seek to mask it, is threefold. Firstly the economy is in rapid decline, and as well as having to work harder to get customers through the door, they also need to work harder to convince those customers that their own "dreams" will be ready to blossom at some convenient point in the future. This is the crystal ball factor, in that it is a prediction, and therefore anybodies guess.

The second problem is new competition. That competition is in the form of the airlines themselves, who have realised a new market in selling those "jobs" that their customers aspire to. A type rating and a few hundred hours of "vital and necessary" experience has become something of a money spinner for those companies that have seen the new business opportunity to sell a role that was previously a major expense. With no shortage of potential customers at this time, that business is expanding. In turn it has weakened wage pressure at the bottom of the existing F/O scales, for experienced and ex-military job seekers coming into the airline pilot market.

The third problem is a regulatory one. Compulsory retirement ages, and certainly in the major Western economies, have been raised significantly in recent years. In some cases by as much as 10 years from age 55 to age 65. Although the laws of natural attrition mean that not all senior pilots would necessarily be able to take advantage of those changes, it has nevertheless had a major impact on the role of retirement in the job market. The decline in the economy, the weakness in the pension market, and the fact that those affected normally enjoy some of the best terms and conditions in the industry means there is a strong uptake of senior pilots (and mainly Captains,) who are working for anything up to 10 years longer than planned. In many cases these pilots will also be enjoying the additional benefits afforded them by the fruits of their existing or historic pension planning. The nett affect is a rapid reduction of turnover at the top, which is also reducing wage pressure at the top and all the way through the pilot labour market.

Airlines have never had a burning desire to recruit 250 hour pilots. Never! That has only ever happened historically in a few isolated examples, where a large national carrier had its own training establishment (BOAC/BEA Hamble,) or in more recent times (CTC/FTE/Oxford etc.)when an airline saw a cost advantage in tying a structured licence training / type rating programme to its own seasonal needs, with the possibility of a permanent job at the end of the probationary period. Historically airlines sought the best and most experienced applicants from career improvers or crossover ex-military pilots. From a cost point of view, if they could have got away with only one expensive pilot in the cockpit, they would have jumped at the chance. They couldn't, but selling the second seat is certainly the next best (if not better) thing.

It might well be that this all changes at some point in the future, and I can certainly see potential causes of such a change, however the idea that an upswing in the general economy will create a raft of real new jobs for 250 hour pilots, who will be paid a good salary rather than expected to pay, is difficult to see. If these seats are not going to be cash generators, then the airlines will do what they have always done and seek the best experienced and qualified pilots to fill them, at whatever rates the spot market then dictates.

In summary, this is a little like the aftermath of an air crash. You can speculate all and as wildly as you like, however look carefully at the evidence and piece together the reality and you will likely come to a more accurate and beneficial reason, answer and conclusion, even if it is something you would rather not have to accept.

[Bruce Wayne]

As for the fuel price.... anyone notice the 3p one hit increase at the pumps week before last? Most of my flying is done around the south coast where there have been several large tankers parked up off the Isle of Wight for weeks waiting for the oil price to rise before coming in to Fawley Refinery. The increase in oil has already started again and I fear it will be the final nail in the coffin for one or two carriers this winter if it continues. http://images.ibsrv.net/ibsrv/res/src:www.pprune.org/get/images/smilies/worry.gif

Yes indeed the oil price has been creeping back up.. The situation in Iran is cause for concern over the oil prices. Further, OPEC are looking to cut production to push prices back up.

[TheBeak]

Not even the best in business saw this recession coming

Not true, what a sweeping statement.

You might want to watch this......

YouTube - Michael O'Leary Discusses Ryanair Profits (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9wGkbzOk3Jc)

He clearly predicted it almost to the exact timing, extent and detail.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

dublin_eire - I did predict a house price crash and a recession and a credit crunch. I spent the latter half of 2007 here arguing with people about it. To quote myself randomly from the period:


http://www.pprune.org/3556805-post87.html

17th Sept 2007

Getting loans for training is going to get a LOT harder and more expensive.

House prices are falling and probably will fall substantially and this removes the source of funding for at least half of all Wannabes (either releasing their own or parents equity).

There may be fewer training in the near future or possibly just more on the Modular path.

However, the real story is the looming recession and it effects on airline hiring. Airlines tend to lead in and out of recessions.

The music *may* be about to stop...

WWW



And

http://www.pprune.org/3703286-post21.html

15th Nov 2007

Parents with large equity pools and solid incomes may gift their children the means to go on any flying training course they wish. But this is only a fraction of the people who self sponsor their training every year.

Many remortgage their own modest properties. Sometimes to 125% of their market value (see Northern Rock's Together mortgage for an example). Many rely on a PDL, CDL, the Any Purpose loan topped off with a consolodation loan (hello - is that OceanFinance/PictureLoans etc) and a few credit cards on 0% interest.

It is the latter group - not the ones with wealthy parents - that are in most immediate trouble when credit dries up and house prices fall even slightly.

This will probably effect Modular just as much as Integrated. Though at a time when airline hiring is shuddering to a marked slowdown you might be considered a bit mad for going Integrated.

Remember, the house price falls and credit crunch are only just beginning. There is a long way to go yet. And at every stage there will be a Flying Training Industry telling you that there has never been a better time to train.

Its what they do.



Good luck,

WWW


So Son, you take what I say with a pinch of salt all you like, but I've called it early and I've called it correctly so far. Might be wrong next time but at least I've got a track record that Anatole Kaletsky and David Brown would kill for.




The Old Fat One - normal post war interest rates would be just above 5%. The bond market is pricing in UK Interest Rates higher than this. With the nation selling billion pound Gilts by the barrel the IR's will have to go up to entice foreign buyers to buy HM Treasuries debt. Public spending down, Interest Rates up, many years of hard slog and the countries finances MIGHT just be back to respectable. Interest Rates at 10% of their normal level was an emergency response to a crisis. It cannot and will not last because if it did Fiat currencies would start to fail. For the sake of forgoing 0.5% interest on paper money I for one would start using Gold and avoid the governments banking system with its taxes and fees..


Capt Pit Bull - thanks for your visit here and your comments. I am aware that its always a gamble and always difficult. But at work out of 6 dispatchers I deal with 2 of them has CPL/IRs. Trained at a well regarded Integrated school one of them was even sponsored by GAPAN. They are filling out loadsheets for Servisair on £16k with £80k's worth of expensive training going rustier by the day. They are both brilliant, personable, intelligent, gifted people with every box ticked. Nothing. Not a hope. No flying job. Anywhere. On anything. Trying all year. I don't want more people to put themselves in that hole. No other agenda.



Bealzebub - welcome back. We haven't had a chat since you got all shirty about planned bankruptcy amongst wannabes wish to train on credit and then dispose of their debts.

You say:

The problem here is that the moderation however infuriating or annoying, should be perceived as balanced and fair. That is by definition the role of moderation or arbitration. Judges, moderators and arbitrators will make decisions that are perceived as unfair to one or other (and sometimes all) parties, from time to time. There is however a problem when the moderator, arbitrator or judge allows the cult of personality to overtake the role itself. I think any comparison to Jesus is perhaps unhelpful in this regard?

Arsebiscuits to that. Frankly. I'm an immoderate moderator and always have been. This forum, unlike the dire dull attempts elsewhere, is lively and full of debate. It even has people who aren't wannabes contributing to it. Which is flipping unique..

I take a strong view in only one aspect of Wannabeism. I talk of the merits of Integrated or Modular for example. I just call the employment market as I see it and I do see it sometimes as **** because sometime it is. This MATTERS. This really really matters to youngster taking enormous debt obligations based on being able to find a proper paying job 18 months down the line. People lose their houses, their partners and their lives based on this decision.

I knew someone who topped themselves in the early 1990's recession because he ended up losing his house and putting his wife and children in a council house. He couldn't get a flying job and the banks bankrupted him.

This is, to coin a phrase, serious ****.

On this forum we have a deep pool of an audience in potentially exactly this situation. All around are glossy adverts, politicians and Vested Interests urging them to plunge in - the waters lovely. It bloody isn't, its full of jelly fish and weeds and its bloody freezing.

If me saying so pisses you off then instead of trying to shut me up then you are perfectly free, for free, to write here and persuade the readership otherwise. Fair?



WWW

[RoyHudd]

WWW,

You are 100% correct. No-one in their right mind should lay down good money for pro flight training. Why?

I believe there is no good future in aviation. The industry has peaked and is in rapid decline. As is the car industry, the property market, the investment banking business, and many many others. And that is because our industrial world is in a dramatic era of slowdown. Which is not about to reverse itself. Probably never.

This is not news. This is a majority opinion in nearly every relevant news publication.

Pilots, including experienced bods, are notorious for adopting ostrich strategies. Been guilty of it myself. Prospective pilots be warned. Find work elsewhere and save your money. On no account borrow to do this. It's a profession I love, and it is on its knees. I discouraged my son, and he's thanking me for it.

And WWW. Please don't bust a gut trying to contradict the "experts" that are masters of wishful thinking, particularly those who also have vested interests. They aren't worth a bean.

[Bealzebub]

Bealzebub - welcome back. We haven't had a chat since you got all shirty about planned bankruptcy amongst wannabes wish to train on credit and then dispose of their debts.

If you had searched a little deeper you would have seen that we have. In fact you have stickied a couple of more recent contributions. However on the subject of your promotion of planned bankruptcy (something I assume you haven't availed yourself of?) you then go on to say.
I knew someone who topped themselves in the early 1990's recession because he ended up losing his house and putting his wife and children in a council house. He couldn't get a flying job and the banks bankrupted him.

Not a strong position to be promoting the merits of bankruptcy then? Unless you believe doing it to yourself, is less potentially depressing than somebody else doing it to you?

Far from trying to shut you up, you have been given a pedestal from which to preach and you use it to full effect. Nothing wrong with been a campaigner for whatever cause you choose, or for being completely immoderate. However it is a contradiction to declare yourself immoderate and then hang the badge of moderator from your name. Your opinions, observations and predictions are no more or less valid than mine or anybody elses generally speaking, however this pedestal provides you with a pulpit that you truly believe gives you a greater stature than your comments would ordinarily deserve.

I have no other agenda than to say what I see is happening in the market. If anybody pays any heed to those comments, that is up to them. If you feel your role is to act as a counterbalance to the promises and claims of the pilot training industry, then that is fine. It is of course a counterbalance and not a moderation or arbitration. You are rather doing a David Ike I think, and shooting yourself in the foot in the process. Nevertheless if you feel you once were Jesus, and you have a Uri Geller insight into the future that others don't possess, who am I to argue while you bleed into your new swimming pool. It is not a case of shutting you up. If you read my other posts you will see that I argue for much of what you do. On the other hand you cannot complain that people disrespect the role of the moderator by throwing rotten fruit at it, when the role is used like a soapbox at speakers corner?

[Re-Heat]

I've had my fair few encounters with WWW, particularly on the planned bankruptcy matter, but I completely disagree that moderating on this forum is anything other than fair.

This is the only forum (online or otherwise) of which I am aware that has such diversity of opinion and open analysis of the situation.

For someone about to spend £80k on a licence, this information is of paramount importance.

Yes, FIs and schools around the UK dismiss it as doom-mongering, but look where we are today, and how correct those predictions have proven to be.

Scroggs and WWW nurtured this place as a forum of debate an impartial information - where else is that the case?


Perhaps this thread (with this diversion) has run its course, and we should now start a new one entitled - "Have we reached the bottom?"

[Philpaz]

Perhaps this thread (with this diversion) has run its course, and we should now start a new one entitled - "Have we reached the bottom?"


Maybe when were a bit closer to the bottom, i still cant hear the pebbles land.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

bealzebub - too right. I know a good man who orphaned his children and widowed his wife because of the banks bankrupting him. Perhaps it does colour my laissez faire attitude to using planned bankruptcy. Those bastards offered the loan, assessed the risk, ventured the money for profit and knew - ultimately - that if they got it wrong big enough that they would be rescued.

Money as debt.

Money as debt.

Money as debt.


Google it people.



Far from trying to shut you up, you have been given a pedestal from which to preach and you use it to full effect. Nothing wrong with been a campaigner for whatever cause you choose, or for being completely immoderate. However it is a contradiction to declare yourself immoderate and then hang the badge of moderator from your name. Your opinions, observations and predictions are no more or less valid than mine or anybody elses generally speaking, however this pedestal provides you with a pulpit that you truly believe gives you a greater stature than your comments would ordinarily deserve.



I haven't been given a pedestal. I've built a pulpit from scratch from 1998. Do you think Wannabes was automatically going to be one of the biggest busiest parts of PPRuNe? On most other sites the ever repeating dull nature of the the Wannabe forum exists as some echo chamber inhabited by 6 teenagers all trying to get excited by the Flyer roadshow and agonising whether to go to Oxford or Jerez.

David Ike, Uri Geller, Jesus; all these are utter losers whom I wouldn't piss on if fire - controversial enough yet? - so please don't bleat on my behalf that that people throw rotten fruit at me.

I have never deleted, supressed or punished people arguing the opposite of my position. Why would I - I spend a considerable amount of time working out how to generate animated discussion - when my vulantary role is to help provide a communication channel which didn't used to exist. IF I was a despot, tyrant I'd just delete your criticism at the wave of a mouse and nobody would be any the wiser. Its that easy. With three clicks and two button presses you would be banned and your last ten posts deleted.

Accusations of abuse of power are therefore hard to take seriously. Call me a pillock, say why, and I don't delete it. The power my postings have because I am a Moderator is slim. But earned. But earned.


I think 3 airlines will go bust this winter. I note Jerez has just knocked £5,000 of their course price...



WWW


ps For a change the tennis really is good..

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Pluck this out of your bottom as we're being all frivolous - you're banned!

WWW

[Bealzebub]

Well I suppose this allusion to megalomania is something of an act. I suppose I should be grateful that you haven't deleted my posts or banned me like the previous poster!

The power my postings have because I am a Moderator is slim. But earned. But earned. Earned from what? What is it you have earned that makes your opinion any more valid than anybody else who has either been a flying instructor or an airline pilot or both? There are plenty of vociferous posters on these forums and a spectrum of opinions. It is rare to see a moderator dominate a thread with their own partisan opinion. Even rarer to see one who threatens or actually bans a poster for taking a contrary viewpoint or position. Despite your protestation three posts above you then did that in the subsequent post.

Perhaps it would be better to take a step back and look at the wider picture rather than be too blinkered or overtly focused on only what you want to see. In fact isn't that the criticism you make of many of the posters on here?

[StoffelNZ]

David Ike, Uri Geller, Jesus; all these are utter losers whom I wouldn't piss on if fire - controversial enough yet?

Nice one WWW :hmm:. Up till now I was a keen follower of this thread and I enjoyed your insightful posts and agreed with much of what you said. But why the need for such comments? Have a rant by all means but comments like this just make you look like a prick.

[KAG]

I believe there is no good future in aviation. The industry has peaked and is in rapid decline. As is the car industry, the property market, the investment banking business, and many many others. And that is because our industrial world is in a dramatic era of slowdown. Which is not about to reverse itself. Probably never.

Yes... You forgot to mention the fuel.
First, nobody can predict what will be the fuel price if the recession stop. It was at 147$ one year ago.
Second we can speculate on the fuel reserve, but who can say we will have as much fuel as we want for the next 50 years?

I don' t think that good times are coming for airline pilots.
Better to be wise with your money spending and debts.

All what I hope is that I am wrong.

[Lurking123]

I have never deleted, supressed or punished people arguing the opposite of my position.

Agreed. But, speaking as one who was banned for "contributing nothing but sniping at (a) moderator" I would have to say that Bealzebub has a point. At the time I was banned, I was merely trying to point out that many would not react well to the tone of delivery by the thread moderator. There has been a load of good stuff here but many people have switched off to the arrogant and condescending manner in which some of the messages have been delivered. Disappointing really - Judge and jury springs to mind. Indeed, if one were to try and report this thread or a particular post within the thread (for example one which allows the privilege of swearing) I guess that report would go straight to the accused.

Many forget that internet forum are the worst possible place to get a balanced view on life. Any who post here (self included), should be met with a degree of cynicism. This thread has been abused and should be looked at by the pprune hierarchy for what it is. Of course, they own the thread and will do whatever they wish. Finally, most of us aspire to 'earn' things to better ourselves. Earning one's position as a mod on pprune seems to me to be a sad, very sad, claim to fame. Then again, I've probably been sad enough to waste 10 minutes of my life typing this post which has a high risk of being deleted. :)

Adieu.

[quant]

House prices rose by 0.9 per cent in June, the Nationwide Building Society said today, fuelling hopes the property market is beginning to stabilise.
The average house price in June stood at £156,442, compared with £154,016 in the previous month.
While the monthly rise of 0.9 per cent is below the 1.3 per cent increase in prices for May, the measure of growth over three months revealed the first rise since December 2007.


House price recovery edges ahead with 0.9% rise - Times Online (http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article6607374.ece)

www may have predicted the house price crash but i'm predicting a house price boom starting now :suspect:

[2 Whites 2 Reds]

Pluck this out of your bottom as we're being all frivolous - you're banned!

WWW


Ummmm what's brought on this splurge of banning people WWW.....come (http://www.....come) off it, his comments were hardly offensive or even rude!

Out of interest which 3 do you think will go then??? I'm assuming you've got an idea to have come up with that figure.....

[0-8]

On the 9th of November 2008 WWW said:

I promise Wannabes on pain of eating my Kangaroo skin hat with salt and pepper that in 2009 several significant EU airlines will go bust. By several I mean >10 and by significant I mean having more than >30 jets.On the 29th of June 2009 WWW said:


I think 3 airlines will go bust this winterInteresting.

In only a matter of months WWW has revised his own supremely confident economic predictions by about 75%.

This forecasting lark might not be as easy as it looks...

[dublin_eire]

WWW,

I sincerely hope you put all your psychic powers to good use and short sold on banking shares! A man of your talent should be wheeling dealing and not typing typing...

:}

Agreed with above... Your immoderate moderating is a bit sad...

Sincerely hope that doesn't get me banned for purely sharing an opinion...

[unwiseowl]

WWW, you make a convincing argument and your advice to those considering starting training is sound. But I can't understand why you want to undermine your argument by banning anyone who may be a bit cheeky:confused:

[helimutt]

I'm sorry people feel the way they do. Yes you may have dreams and aspirations of one day becoming an airline pilot. Hell, pay your money, do the courses, get the ticks in the boxes, stay current whilst you work elsewhere, but 5 years down the line, do not look back and regret it. You do it because you want to. You do it because your partners/parents/wives and children all backed your decision.

Just take a step backwards and look at the big picture. Common sense says it will be difficult for the 'foreseeable future' and even then, it's not going to be the same as it was.

I trained to fly helicopters with a dream to fly commercially years ago. I and many others took our time. Bit by bit, and when there was suddenly a hiring boom in the North Sea, we grabbed ourselves an IR (40k+ in some cases) and were lucky enough to get jobs. Others followed closely behind us and ended up with the same qualifications, all paid for by borrowing money and guess what? That boom finished. That was 3 years ago. Look where we are now. The companies are hurting. Money for leasing in aircraft, to replace the old, isn't easy to come by anymore. Swings/roundabouts.

WWW has made some absolutely spot on observations over the last couple of years and I totally agree with everything he says. maybe because we see it from the other side to the wannabes? I don't know. I get people ring me regularly asking if I know of any offshore jobs. I tell them all the same thing. Nope! Onshore helicopters is even worse. Just ask any onshore helicopter pilot about the market right now.

You may not like what WWW says, but hell, go to another forum and hear what you want to hear and good luck. As I said, go get those qualifications because at the end of the day, it's what you want to do. Just don't say you never knew about the harsh realities of life in aviation during boom and bust. :ouch:

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

It was a frivolous ban that expired at midnight like Cinderellas carriage. Spare me the indignant rages.

It was 3 UK airlines that I was referring to - my previous forecast was for the EU area.

I'd listen to helimutt - he sounds as if he knows what he is talking about.

dublin_eire - yep, thanks, I was plenty bearish on bank stocks before the collapse.


I think any talk of house price crashes being cancelled sits uncomfortably with the news today:


Video: UK economy shrinks at fastest rate for 50 years - Times Online (http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article6608270.ece)

UK economy shrinks at fastest rate for 50 years


The UK economy shrank by 2.4 per cent in the first quarter at the fastest rate in more than 50 years and far worse than expected, according to official figures today.

Revised figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed that, between January and March, the economy contracted by its fastest pace since 1958. The ONS revised down its initial estimate, showing a contraction of 1.9 per cent.

Analysts had predicted that the revised numbers would show a 2.1 per cent fall in GDP.

Today's shock data is in part due to a change in methodology in the way that the ONS calculates construction and services output, but will do nothing to boost Alistair Darling's hopes of a recovery by the end of the year.




WWW

[clear prop!!!]

It was a frivolous ban that expired at midnight like Cinderellas carriage. Spare me the indignant rages.
Spare yourself the indignant rages and lighten up my Welsh friend..I think we have all got to the point where the line between your 'humour', and apparent egotistical arrogance has become just a 'bit' blurred!

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

clear prop!!! - you're consistent, I will give you that.


WWW

[quant]

According to the flyer magazine the CTC ATP scheme is accepting applications again :suspect:

A good sign :confused:

;)

[2 Whites 2 Reds]

Nope. Was talking to a CTC Cadet a couple of weeks ago.....at the moment the hold pool, which aparantly has upto 90-100 ex-cadets in it, is not getting cleared so I can't really see an advantage to it. If I was in the hold pool indefinitely then at least you're on a list somewhere for a job....however I found out the other day that you're only allowed to remain in the hold poole for 12 months after completion of training :eek:. I personally wouldn't like to bet that I would be top of that queue within the next 2 years. Then again it's probably no more risky than any other way of training at the moment. Swings and Roundabouts.

2W2R :ok:

[EK4457]

Quant,

The CTC ATP scheme has been re-opened for a several weeks now.

If selected, you pay £8,000 for an MCC course (even if you already have one) and then enter the holding pool. Depending on who you believe, the holding pool is around 80 deep and growing.

Even the FAQ on the website states that you are only placed with an airline once everyone else has gone. Those who went to assessment were told 2 years at best. I think that is optomistic.

In a nut shell, they have opened the scheme to take a load of 8ks from desperate wannabes to fill up empty sim slots. They have no realistic chance of a placement.

It's the way of the world at the minute I'm afraid.....

[Bruce Wayne]

If selected, you pay £8,000 for an MCC course (even if you already have one) and then enter the holding pool

How much ??

you can get an MCC course on a full motion for two and half to three grand in the UK !!

[Mikehotel152]

In a nut shell, they have opened the scheme to take a load of 8ks from desperate wannabes to fill up empty sim slots.

Correct.

But I wonder whether they set a time limit on when you must attend the course after passing the assessment?

[JB007]

This is just nothing short of criminal!http://www.freesmileys.org/smileys/smiley-forum/wtf.gif (http://www.freesmileys.org/smileys.php)

Please please please tell me there are some intelligent, future-to-be Professional Pilots not buying into this...???

[2 Whites 2 Reds]

This is just nothing short of criminal!http://www.freesmileys.org/smileys/smiley-forum/wtf.gif (http://www.freesmileys.org/smileys.php)

Please please please tell me there are some intelligent, future-to-be Professional Pilots not buying into this...???


Nail well bashed on head JB. This is a disgrace to the industry, and as I said above, even if you do go down this road and end up in the hold pool they only let you stay there for 12 months after which you're booted out on you're own having paid £8k for a chuffing MCC!!!!

What a sad state of affairs!

2W2R

[BitMoreRightRudder]

There is worse happening, just ask the cadets who are doing around 400hrs of work at ezy for free this summer, only to be told to sling their hooks come the autumn.

Knowingly taking on pilots desperate for hours, paying them nothing and then letting them go - that's a disgrace to the industry, and it is totally :mad:ing everything up for those who may wish to follow. If you want "seasonality" then you take on contract pilots on a temporary basis, and you pay them. Unfortunately the scheme CTC set up that has worked so well for a few thousand pilots over the last decade or so is now in a dire state. Their desperation to place cadets is allowing the likes of easyJet to raise the bar on immoral practices towards inexperienced pilots.

[Bruce Wayne]

This is just nothing short of criminal!http://www.freesmileys.org/smileys/smiley-forum/wtf.gif (http://www.freesmileys.org/smileys.php)


Funnily enough, it may well be.

[Superpilot]

This is just nothing short of criminal

The fact that we have heard of many young guys and gals now flying with EZ, Thomas Cook and Monarch as a result of going through the ATP scheme makes us overlook the reality of CTC. Some of their tactics are quite immoral if you think about it.

MCCs are supposed to be teaching skills which are universally accepted by all airlines, but not CTC!

At £8K and in the current climate one really needs to ask if they are in effect buying a job from CTC! (we have better airline links, will cost you more money). The fact of the matter is, they could easily incorporate whatever it is they think you didn’t learn properly during your MCC into the TR. Somewhere there is a very fat profit margin.

This would not be tolerated if Ryanair did it. Are we supposed to be accepting it just because it’s CTC? That’s probably what some bright spark in CTC is thinking.

[THRILLSEEKER]

CTC and Ryanair do have one thing in common ... they both DO NOT recognise BALPA! :mad:

Make of that what you will :ugh:

[TheBeak]

Careful guys and girls, you'll be branded bitter and twisted if some of the people on the CTC forum hear you say this. Of course it is a joke, it is unforgivable.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Its exploitation. It makes me angry and confused. Confused because I thought by this point nobody would still be spending so much so willingly on training and licenses and schemes. I thought people wouldn't have the money.

Obviously they still have.

Mystery where it comes from though. Surely even the bank of Mum&Dad have even stopped lending now?

WWW

[RoyHudd]

I wonder if the incoming money stream from suckers paying £8k for MCC courses and the like goes to pay for temp assignments for earlier candidates, the beneficiaries being the airlines and CTC management. The feature of such a scheme is that when the people at the end suddenly want their money (or a job), nothing is forthcoming. The money or jobs are not there. I imagine CTC are reaching that point.

[hollingworthp]

It's not a pyramid scheme .... this is a trapezoid scheme so MUCH better - LOL

[Kelly Hopper]

WWW
If you want something enough foolishly thinking the only thing blocking you from your so called dream life you will find and pay the £8k. There is always prostitution which is a good apprenticeship for the rest of your career!

[JB007]

There is always prostitution which is a good apprenticeship for the rest of your career!

I tried that - failed the Multi-Crew Co-Op section...

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

From todays Times:


Virgin cuts flights, threatening 600 jobs - Times Online (http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/transport/article6619494.ece)


Virgin Atlantic chief executive Steve Ridgway said: “The outlook for the industry is as bleak as ever and all airlines are having to shrink their businesses.


Winter programmes are being slashed by the majority of UK airlines now. This winter is going to be vicious.


WWW

[2 Whites 2 Reds]

Well I would generally agree that this winter is going be to hard but on the other hand I keep hearing from a variety of Captain's that their airline has rumours of recruiting again within the next 6 months. Seems to be a stark contrast between what I and many of us believe will happen and what I hear is rumoured to be happening later in the year. Rumours are just rumours but they must have started somewhere at management level. I think you could toss a coin at the moment, it could go one way or the other.

[virtualaviation]

For what it's worth, we have a seen a surprisingly dramatic improvement in sales in the last few months, with May sales up 25% on April, and June sales up 30% on May. A number of airlines (not lots, but a handful) are conducting assessments now, not just the obvious Irish LCC!

[quant]

British Airways (BA) today announced plans to axe its annual spending plans by 20 per cent, ground flights and reduce its capacity forecasts for summer and winter.
The flag carrier, which is still in talks with unions over jobs and pay cuts, said today that it will reduce this year’s capital expenditure from £725 million to £580 million.
The airline said it expects spending to remain in line with the reduced target in the next financial year to 2011.
BA has been exploring a number of options to cut costs after making a £401 million full-year loss on rising fuel prices and falling passenger numbers as cash-strapped holidaymakers choose to stay at home.


BA axes spending by 20% as traffic tumbles - Times Online (http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/transport/article6631361.ece)

[helimutt]

Hey guys, it looks like right now is a fantastic time to start flight training. The future looks so bright.

PS, I'm selling rose-tinted glasses on ebay if anyone wants some but I feel a fair few have already bought some!!!:rolleyes:

;)

[quant]

British Airways announced plans last night to cut its spending by one fifth and to cut capacity as it tries to preserve cash.
BA, which six weeks ago reported a record loss of £401 million, also confirmed that it was looking to reduce its workforce by the equivalent of 3,700 full-time jobs this year. That is on top of the 2,500 posts cut by BA, which remains in talks with unions, between June last year and this March.


British Airways prepares to make new cuts - Times Online (http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/transport/article6632892.ece)

:sad:

I agree with you helimutt but i got to fly even though that means keeping my crappy job and flying on the weekends.

:}

[quant]

The worst of the recession is over, according to the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) business group, but talk of a recovery is premature.
Its report, based on a survey of 5,600 companies, found there had been "welcome progress" in confidence levels between April and June.


BBC NEWS | Business | Worst of the recession 'is over' (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8137424.stm)

:p:8

[XL5]

I wish it was over, but I realistically doubt that it is.

The unemployment timebomb is quietly ticking - Telegraph (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/5742937/The-unemployment-timebomb-is-quietly-ticking.html)




Thread creep: what can happen should you pay up-front.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/05/business/05loan.html?_r=1&emc=eta1

[pipertommy]

Key word "Worst" its not completely over obviously !! Would nice to think we have reached the bottom.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

You'll know when the bottom has been reached and passed when the unemployment figures are dropping month on month.

I'm afraid to say that is unlikely in 2009 or 2010.

What was a decade long unsustainable boom is now over. Returns to normality will not feature a return to the NICE decade (Non- Inflationary Consistently Expansionary) situation whereby Ryanair and easyJet could be invented and grow to a fleet of 357 jets (BA has 228, Thomas Cook 44, BMI 54 for comparison).

Recent years have been an aberration. No unemployment whatsoever. £30k a year unearned income from house price inflation and mortgage equity withdrawal. Unconfined credit.

This is not, was not and will not be sustained again. As a consequence the demand for airline pilots has dropped and will drop.

Don't let anyone lie to you otherwise.


WWW

[cjd_a320]

All assets go down in price during deflation except one: cash. Cash is the only asset that assuredly rises in value during deflation.

People should save there pennies rather than wasting such a valuable "asset" on pilot training durining a deflationary period.... :)

[KAG]

You'll know when the bottom has been reached and passed when the unemployment figures are dropping month on month.

Yes and right now we are still losing jobs every month like never before.

We are not really in a recession, sorry to say that. We are at a corner stone, we are in a period of change.

Clearly, we don' t really know what's going on. And we can only speculate on the future.

Why? What is new?

1-fuel reserve (or unstable price)/environment

2-the globalization of the economy/Asia

3-the share holders need a salary, not the employee anymore apparently

4-a new finance world that is unable to share their profit

That what appeared in the 80s 90s.

And what is sensitive to fuel speculation, to economy? Aviation.

Aviation will have to change. It has no choice.

[cjd_a320]

We are not really in a recession, sorry to say that. We are at a corner stone, we are in a period of change.

Agree, were in a perlonged period of Deflation after the great impulsive growth cycle which started from 1933 to 2007*.

People need to dig their history books out and have a look what happened in the last great deflation between 1711 & 1784... Not the lesser 1929-32 correction. :)

*It can argued that 1999 was the cyclical top if paper assets such as the Dow Jones index are potted against Gold.
http://pricedingold.com/charts/DJIA-1900.pdf

[Adios]

It seems quite weird to compare the 18th Century to the 21st. I'm not ready to buy it. Times have changed. Technology has come. Government intervention is more widespread, for better or for worse and hard to tell the difference. Automated trades, automated trade halts, derivatives, news traveling at lightspeed. All give the tools for a crash to be far worse or for one to be prevented with the ultimate outcome depending on far more variables than were around 300 years ago.

[cjd_a320]

I'm not ready to buy it. Times have changed.

They said the same thing During John Law's time in the 1700's ;)

Have a read of Charles Mackay's Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of crowds (1852).

or Neil ferguson History of Money (2008) for a more modern day slant....

History is our only guide we have when trying to look towards the future.....

:)

[JohnRayner]

And those who forget history are condemned to repeat it....

[JB007]

The quiet 'industry cull' is still ongoing...speaking to a mate this week who flies for a LE45 operator in the London area, has been forced a 25% pay cut and part-time roster...he's very happy he's kept his job.

I work for the UK's 3rd largest airline and despite speaking to a Director on one of my flights this week and hearing July holidays are 100% sold, August is almost there too - we have a pilot surplus, we a removing more aircraft from the fleet this winter...increasing the pilot surplus...

Beware November onwards...I would actually advise anyone who is presently undergoing training to reach a sensible point to stop...and get a paying job.

The possibility of a position as a pilot for anyone with zero experience and a new licence is, maybe, further away than we originally forecast...

[quant]

Beware November onwards...I would actually advise anyone who is presently undergoing training to reach a sensible point to stop...and get a paying job.

sound advice :ok: however potential 'button pushers' (aka pilots) should also be aware that the oil price will start to rise when the economy gets better thus pushing up the cost of training. My advice would be to finish and get a paying job, if you can and play the 'keeping current game' :)

Right time to go to my paying job ;)

[BoeingMEL]

This ol' timer hasn't always agreed with WWW...but his post (2754) I believe to be spot-on.... tragically and awfully spot-on. Even if (and that's a very big "if") the UK economy is heading for Hell more slowly, there'll be a protracted plateau as we stumble along the bottom before gradually starting to recover... but that's the ECONOMY remember...and when it comes to recession, our industry is always first in and last out. There's already a sizeable bank of rated and experiened crew out there looking for jobs... and many more will be joining them before next Spring. Who out there with more than a single brain-cell would throw huge sums of money at training right now? Sincere good luck to one and all, I've been through a number of recessions since the early 70s...but nothing like this. Cheers bm:ugh:

[wobble2plank]

Heard from a friend in Netjets that they are looking to cull 1/3 of the pilot workforce from the smaller jet end of the business!

Apparently the company are offering various 'options' including 1 year on, 1 year off, Redundancy package and off you go, x months on x months off etc.

Seems to be well run but is still a dramatic cull of up to 400 pilots!

BA are culling their winter schedule. The recently announced BALPA deal with BA to avoid compulsory redundancy has a line in it stating that the deal does not cover surplus generated due to reduction in future capacity!

The next year will continue to be extremely challenging. The 'surplus' sloshing around in the world will take a long time to be hoovered up. The future will be of longer rosters, fewer crew, shorter turrnarounds, reduced pay, more sectors etc.

Personally, if I were starting out now, I would take the advice above and either not start or, if I were in the process, finish and get another job until this all stabilises. Look at least two to three years from now and you might be ok.

[quant]

Falls in house prices eased in June, offering fresh evidence that confidence is returning to the market, according to Halifax.
There was a 0.5 per cent decline in house prices in June, Halifax said. In the three months to the end of June, house prices declined by 1.9 per cent, the smallest quarterly fall since the first three months of 2008.
Martin Ellis, Halifax's housing economist, said: "These figures provide evidence that the underlying pace of house price decline is easing."
The June decline brought the annual fall in house prices to 15 per cent, taking down the value of the average home to £157,713.


Falling house prices ease in new recovery hope - Times Online (http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article6666136.ece)

[helimutt]

You could always do what I did. Go out and get the qualifications you need. Stay in your present job. When an opportunity arises in the future which is good enough to replace your present employment, then go for it. Some people get lucky. Some people wait 12 years! ppl 1994, full time pilot 2006! I was in no hurry though and even now, not bothered what happens.

Figures stated daily in the press about house price falls slowing, just means that things are still crap, but padded out to make it look like good news.
Oil finally dropping to more sensible prices today due to the slowdown. They'll fall further I feel. (wonder if petrol and diesel will come down in price?)

[Kelly Hopper]

Estate agents and building societies are for ever stating that things in their market are "great, improving, you can't lose etc."
Of course it has nothing to do with the fact that they have a vested interest in talking up the market!
The fact is housing got to a vastly over-inflated level on the back of more borrowed money than the economy could withstand and until that problem is resolved, ie. a massive drop in prices, the ecomomy will continue to stagnate.
At least in the States they see that and slash prices to a level which becomes attractive. To my eyes property in the UK is still way over priced, especially when you consider how difficult money is to come by now.
This is going to take a very long time to see a real recovery.

[quant]

Worldwide economic growth is expected to recover to 2.5% in 2010, says the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
That is higher than the IMF's earlier estimate of 1.9% growth next year, made in April, with the increase expected to be led by India and China.
But the IMF still expects the global economy to contract 1.4% this year.
For the UK, the IMF has revised down its 2009 economic forecast by 0.1% to -4.2%, but it now expects the economy to expand by 0.2% next year.
The IMF had previously said it expected the British economy to contract by 0.4% in 2010.


BBC NEWS | Business | IMF more upbeat on 2010 recovery (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8140357.stm)


:8

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Every monthly fluctuation in average house prices tell us little as there is so much background noise.

The broad picture is amply illustrated by this graph:


http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/graphs/generated/homepage.png



The reductions in public spending and period of high unemployment are yet to come into play. Interest rated cannot remain at 0.5% either. :( There are years of pain yet to come and so far things have been pretty mild.

Andy Harrison CEO of easyJet told me recently that he expects only three airline to post profits in the coming year. One of them was his, the other was Mr O' Learys and the third was Lufthansa.

I can believe that.


WWW

[cjd_a320]

Nice chart....

The CMT's will say that £60 to £70K area is an easy eyeball first price target........

Interest rated cannot remain at 0.5% either.

Yes they will go lower.....;)

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

I don't think they will go lower. I believe what the Bond Market says. UK IR's are going back to normality and then higher. 7% would be my estimate. Commercial lending being 7% + margin.

Inflation beckons. Those who are hurt by inflation vote. A lot.

The Baltic Dry is collapsing again. The price of a shipping container from Japan to West Coast USA have slumped by a third to less than £700 since March. The system is badly badly damaged.

This Winter will be bad. Winter 2010 will be horrific for airlines.


WWW

[cjd_a320]

Inflation..... in a self liquidating & non-self-liquidating credit contraction.....Kind of goes againsts your asset deflation posts?

It takes a long, long time to work off a 75 year credit cycle impulse.. before inflation can even think about rising its head...

Curve ball of course for (uk based) is a sterling crisis, but we wont panic retail just yet.... :))

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

We could indulge in a long and protracted discussion about deflation vs inflation and I've done so on other forums several times and know the arguments backwards. Suffice to say I'm not persuaded strongly either way but I have a bias towards inflation. I just bought a Stihl Kombi System petrol strimmer and they jumped in price by 9% on 1st July. My wifes Ford Focus was subject to a 4% price rise in June on all of Fords products. The Mars Bar in the vending machine at work is unchanged in price but now down to 27grams in weight.

I see asset deflation in houses. Inflation everywhere else.

But that would be a little too esoteric a discussion for this thread on this forum.


WWW

[cjd_a320]

Yes we on the same page about inflation, just a question of time frame....:)

Of course you will see disparities between sterling & non sterling denominated core goods as you pointed out with your examples. Over all if we don't not have a significant Sterling correction againts the Major pairs then delfation is the primary driving force.

Its just good to see you pointing out some economic realities wannabes want to ignore..... :)

[Superpilot]

The following chart from FlightGlobal shows aircraft orders up to the first half of 2009.

After cancellations Boeing have a net order of just 1 aircraft and Airbus 68.

http://www.flightglobal.com/assets/getAsset.aspx?ItemID=29905

Full article: Airbus and Boeing see orders collapse as deliveries hit record levels (http://www.flightglobal.com/articles/2009/07/08/329407/airbus-and-boeing-see-orders-collapse-as-deliveries-hit-record.html)

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

What would also be needed to complete the picture is a table showing aircraft retirements. The deserts are filling up with parked aircraft..


WWW

[quant]

The Nationwide Building Society has introduced a mortgage allowing borrowers to take loans worth 125% of the value of the home they are buying.


BBC NEWS | Business | Nationwide offers 125% mortgage (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8141584.stm)

A return to the bad old days? :sad:

[pipertommy]

Good time for a start up to buy a few a/c put them into storage and operate at a later date?

[Hamish 123]

WWW

Your grasp of economics and the finanancial markets is impressive.

Presumably, armed with such foresight and knowledge, you are now fabulously wealthy, having played the markets like a true master of the universe?

[Bruce Wayne]

Aircraft entering into the storage facilities in Az, Ca, Nm are not all retirements. Often these are placed into storage by the operators or lessors (asset owners) as economically that is the most appropriate implementation for them at this time.

In respect of retirements an aircraft is only retired when the data plate is cut off. That's it it will never fly again.

The decision to retire an aircraft is dependent on the type, the accumulated parts value its maintenance status and return to service considerations.

Often, it is the case that the lessor is better off to place the aircraft into storage and keep the write down on the asset, especially when there is little prospect of placing the aircraft onto contract at terms that are financially viable.

Yes there are aircraft going into storage, and yes retirements are occurring, though the retirements we have been working on are subject to maintenance status and recoverable parts values.

Likewise with the property market, many aircraft were bought at high values which are not achievable right now.

The Exec jet market is hurting too, there are a lot to choose from with both listed and un-listed aircraft. Its getting worse.

Right now i am seeing some very attractively priced assets for disposal, however, the financial capacity to fund acquisitions is not available.

[2098]

Airbus and Boeing still have almost 7000 aircraft to build this tells a story in itself.

[UAV689]

goods inflation is definietly on the cards for the next 12 months or so - in the retail head office i currently work in we are increasing prices across the board next year.

VAT likely to be returning to 17.5% (VAT reduction has been the biggest joke - 99% of retailers increased their prices after 3 months and have been pocketing the 2.5% difference thank you very much) but this has meant they are going to increase prices next spring summer to countinue the profit growth they have had from the VAT. Also poor $ exchange all means that retailers are have profit margins squeezed next spring summer seasons - standby for price hikes and inflation (80% of goods from China, paid for in $)

But perhaps the goverment wants inflation with the amount of money they have been printing (debt) that debt will now be worth less in real terms? perhaps an economist can clear that one up for me, I am just a wannabe CPL!

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

High inflation does erode the debts of those most heavily in debt in society which are people in their 30's and 40's with large mortgages and in paid employment. A few years of 8% inflation can make those mortgage debts shrink. The retired on fixed pension incomes would be much less happy.

However, broadly the retiring generation are in a much better financial position than their children so perhaps a transfer of wealth is in order. Unfortunately the older generation vote more often so this is politically difficult.

There has never been an example in a developed currency whereby printing money did not result in galloping inflation which usually needs constraining with high interest rates. Unfortunately the UK along with much of the West is in a least-worst scenario where all the options are pretty horrible.

Bottom line - the market needs not so many airline pilots as it once did.


WWW

[cjd_a320]

But perhaps the goverment wants inflation

That hits the nail on the head.

They do want "monitorization" of debt. However like with any other large scale government "Projets" ... It makes the Deflation out look even stronger.

Money supply shows that "paper" is still being vaporized as soon as its coming of the press and will continue to do so for a long, long time...

Sadly we're in this for the long haul and it will have a devastating effect on aviation for years to come... :(

[Nearly There]

Sadly we're in this for the long haul and it will have a devastating effect on aviation for years to come... http://images.ibsrv.net/ibsrv/res/src:www.pprune.org/get/images/smilies/sowee.gif

Quite true yet still there are people out there wanting to saddle themselves with huge debts and be tied into a contract with investors, just to rush and join the ranks of unemployed pilots! A recent advert on Angel Investment Network:

I am currently a student at *********** UK, I I have passed numerous assessments and currently hold a Private pilots license. However I am only 2 months into my course and have been told by Barclays bank that they will no longer fund it.
(There not funding it, you are with debt)

There is alot of security, in the way of life insurance, loss of medical license, loss of flying license insurance, as well as a skills protection plan, which states that if i fail due to lack of ability they will repay the full course costs.

I have done extremely well in my first set of exams. Upon completion of the course I am a fully qualified airline pilot. My family has invested the additional 29,000 required to complete the course, I simply need a corporate sponsor or investor that can lona the short fall of £37,200. This can be repayed within 5 years with a negotiable interest rate.The starting salaries are around £28,000+ benefits, and can expect around 71,000 after 5 years.

This is the best aviation training school in the world, I hope that an investor will be able to invest in me, to allow me to finish this training and enter a very skilled profession, with good stability and highly payed salaries to pay back the loan plus interest.

Thank you very much for your time
REQUIRED AMOUNT (http://www.angelinvestmentnetwork.co.uk/investor_tools/109?op=s1): £37,200
MINIMUM INVESTMENT AMOUNT (http://www.angelinvestmentnetwork.co.uk/investor_tools/109?op=s6): £10,000
INVESTMENT REASON (http://www.angelinvestmentnetwork.co.uk/investor_tools/109?op=s8): Other
Any takers?
What can I say, sand check, head check, bury head check......

[cjd_a320]

People are still in a form of Bubble psychology... Can't blame them really.
Its become accepted behaviour over the past 30 years, that if "things" come down or pull back it must be a good time to buy into. Fine during a credit expansion but deadly in a credit contraction.

We just need to work through this mini "bailout bubble" phase before the herd reaches its "point of recognition" of true economic reality....

[quant]

Recovery in the United States and other leading economies should herald a return to growth by the end of this year or early in 2010, Tim Geithner, the US Treasury Secretary said today.
In an upbeat message after talks with Alistair Darling in London, on the first leg of an international tour to Europe and the Middle East, Mr Geithner conceded that significant threats to the global outlook were still persisting.
But the Treasury Secretary said the foundations for an upturn in the US and elsewhere had been laid.
“I think the policies have been very effective in arresting, in mitigating the force of the storm and we’re starting to see a better basis for recovery starting to be made in the US.


US economy 'may return to growth this year' - Times Online (http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article6701260.ece)

:hmm:

[quant]

The market for business class travel, which has been in free-fall since the start of the recession, could take at least five years to recover, the head of British Airways’ American operations has said.
Premium rate passengers, first and business class, have traditionally been BA’s lifeblood. But Simon Talling-Smith, executive vice president for BA in the Americas, said that with nearly 70 per cent of businesses slashing their travel budgets and with companies increasingly moving executives into economy class or relying on video conferencing instead of face to face meetings, airlines had their work cut winning back that business.
"BA’s view is that it will take quite a long time, potentially more than five years, before the full value of the business market returns," he said.
"Right now [businesses] are putting more people into economy class. Our business and first class business volumes have fallen by around 15 per cent, but economy volumes have fallen by about 1 per cent [for the six months to June 2009]. One could reasonably guess that a certain number of business class customers are down trading to economy."


Plenty of time to get your licenses done and build hours :ok:

[Cirrus_Clouds]

Well, just like me going modular is the best way to do it nowadays and I'm glad I have! 4/5yrs to play with is good, just keep current with the flying! ... With much less/minimal debt, it means that the salary can be spent on other things rather that paying back big loans.

Don't aim for BA after graduation unless your Integrated or have something like 1500hrs experience (I think on jet).

Found some other positive news from the other side of the world:

BBC NEWS | Business | Singapore's economy bounces back (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8149069.stm)

:ok:

[Re-Heat]

FT.com - Cathay Pacific

Published: July 14 2009 09:01 | Last updated: July 14 2009 09:26

Eat my shoots. A month ago Tony Tyler, chief executive of Cathay Pacific, swatted away concerns over a rights issue by telling analysts that things had stopped getting worse. Traffic figures for June, released on Monday, tell a different story. Passenger numbers fell the most, year-on-year, since the peak of Sars. Even with big capacity reductions, load factors weakened further. Don’t even ask about premium, about two-fifths of total revenues.

Mr Tyler cannot be blamed for misreading the outlook, or for trusting faulty forecasting tools. Even so, it is time to ask the awkward questions again. Does Cathay need a recapitalisation? And could its shareholders be relied upon to back it? Swire Pacific, the largest holder with 40 per cent and manager of the airline, would presumably deliver the goods. But Air China, holder of 17 per cent, is living hand to mouth. Citic Pacific, with another 17 per cent, is still shaking off a record annual loss as it refocuses on specialty steel, iron ore and Chinese real estate.

There would be something absurd about Cathay, a company with net debt to equity of about 100 per cent, tapping up Air China, where the ratio is about 250 per cent. But the facts are uncomfortable. Cathay’s gearing is more than double its own 20-year average, at a time when operating metrics have rarely been worse. A succession of regional peers – including Qantas, ANA and Malaysia’s AirAsia – has raised equity in recent months.

And the capital gap between Cathay and Singapore Airlines, the sector prefect with net cash, is widening. Total debt to equity at the Temasek-backed carrier is not far off its average 10 per cent since 1990; it has said it is seeking opportunities in China or India. Mr Tyler will want to focus on signs of recovery at Cathay’s interim results next month. Investors may not let him.

BACKGROUND NEWS

Cathay Pacific Airways this week released combined Cathay Pacific and Dragonair traffic figures for June 2009 that show a sharp fall in passenger numbers compared to the same month last year, in part due to the impact of the Influenza A (H1N1) outbreak. There was also another marked year-on-year drop in the amount of cargo and mail carried.

In June, Cathay Pacific and Dragonair carried a total of 1,738,413 passengers – a drop of 18.1 per cent against the same month in 2008 – while the load factor fell by 4.5 percentage points to 76.8 per cent. Capacity for the month, measured in available seat kilometres (ASKs), was down 9.1 per cent.

[XL5]

Tipping points: sorry to say that we've arrived at one. This isn't a normal recession and what follows won't be a normal recovery. Chickens coming home etc and other metaphors. M3 + level of public debt is the narrative.

Turbulence ahead; fasten seat belt sign on; head between knees; barf bag at the ready: Barf. Feel better? You shouldn't - it's not over yet.

Not a good time to load up on debt with only the implied promise of a false dawn as a bail out.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

The M3 figures are showing the same numbers that they did months before the Lehmans collapse and credit crunch I.


Eurozone falls into deflation as M3 money supply shrinks - Telegraph (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/5700653/Eurozone-falls-into-deflation-as-M3-money-supply-shrinks.html)

Eurozone falls into deflation as M3 money supply shrinks
First time the region has tipped into deflation for the first time since modern records began half a century ago.

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

Published: 8:00PM BST 30 Jun 2009

The eurozone region has tipped into deflation for the first time since modern records began half a century ago. The M3 money supply has contracted over the last three months, flashing warning signs of potential trouble in six to nine months' time.



I'm not actually related to Ambrose..


WWW

[Kelly Hopper]

'Hearing 100 more to go at Virgin!

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Why its different this time...



http://img145.imageshack.us/img145/3793/totalcreditdebtpercenta.jpg





'nuff said,


WWW



Actually, it isn't. What this shows is that people are as poor as they ever were. Owning a newish BMW, a home and a Villa in Spain really is just for the wealthiest 3 or 4%. The only way such lifestyle extravagance was extended to around a third of the population was by extending credit. People were willing to spend on servicing debt and thereby fund massive consumption.

Part of that massive consumption binge was Air Travel. Which, with Ryanair and easyJet alone growing from 0 to 390 aircraft in 11 years, must come to an end and contract.

Pilots will be the Miners of this recession but without the violence or sympathy.

[cjd_a320]

I'm on the deflation side of the fence

Were still in the minority XL, which is a good thing, let the crowds still believe the inflation hype... :)

The Print Press, just can not keep up with debt destruction. Again we'll go against the herd and say we need alot more printing of paper.

Webster's meaning of Deflation which is so appropriate to aviation....
A fall in the average prices of goods and services; - usually associated with contraction of economic activity. Opposite of inflation. Compare disinflation.
The reduction of available credit or a contraction of economic activity resulting from or associated with a decline of prices.

Bit more esoteric view....
Ben Bernanke blue print out on how to Prevent Deflation and see how were doing..

http://www.pprune.org/jet-blast/343768-sub-prime-mess-world-economics-75.html#post5054220

[XL5]

I'm not actually related to Ambrose..WWW

I'm no relation either, but he does have an uncanny way of successfully calling the shots - should be mandatory reading for the integrated dive into debt and subsequent (hopefully with an economic miracle) work my way out of it wannabe tribe.

I'm on the deflation side of the fence, but this is all so horribly messed up ( I own an aircraft on lease) that whatever happens next will most assuredly neither surprise nor delight me.

I should have gone for the swimming pool option. Hole in the ground full of water. So simple - nothing to deflate or depreciate. Brilliant!

[XL5]

Again we'll go against the herd and say we need alot more printing of paper.

cjd_a320, since you mention it: Deflation may well rule, but QE is the yellow brick road to even more trouble. Time to dig a trench, hunker down and hope that no shots fall short. Best learn to be happy with what we've got because in the intermediate term we'll not have more.

But now I sound like an armchair economist, and I do hope my pessimism is misplaced. Unfortunately I don't think that it is.

[350Z]

Well this is all rather depressing! To be honest I am going to employ an ostrich head in sand approach otherwise I am going to end up bloody topping myself! Ignorance is bliss and I'm fed up of actually knowing how crap things are so I'm going to join the majority (stupid British public) and let those that can actually do something about it worry.

[cjd_a320]

I'll add to 350Z's rather tongue in cheek post about Ignorance... :)

The "sheepeople", always get the short straw through their own igorance. If ones aware of the situtation, you can adapt,anticipate and prosper. Some people/sectors did very well in the last depression, its cyclical like everything else.

Aviation had its time in the sun, now its set for a long period of Darkness...

Its just hard to take off these rose tinted aviation goggles(foggles) in order to really see whats happening...

[350Z]

you can adapt,anticipate and prosper

Trouble is, literally everything has gone to **** this time!? Any clues as to what a twenty something with university education (debt) and limited work experiencing should be doing to adapt and consequently prosper? :confused:

[cjd_a320]

Just have to do a little bit of research we carn't post that sort of thing on an open aviation board... ;) :))

cjd_a320, since you mention it: Deflation may well rule, but QE is the yellow brick road to even more trouble.

I agree in the long term, however the powers that be have embarked on this route & alot more printing will be necessary on this long slow deflationary road....

[Matt.V]

New airline!!! They will need pilots!

BBC NEWS | Americas | Pet airline welcomes 'pawsengers' (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/8151011.stm)

[Cirrus_Clouds]

Lets just hope they don't bump into turbulence, as it could get a bit smelly in the back! lol :E

[2 Whites 2 Reds]

Well some (if very few) are doing rather well out of this recession....my previous employer is a medium sized chain of pet sotres across the south of the UK.....they're doing better than ever and since the recession started have been opening at least one new store a month. The company has no real loans or HP to speak of continues to do very well. My point being, people are still spending on the highstreet but rather than a new sofa they're buying Fido a new bed!

The flip side to that is my family being in the metal industry.....my dad is currently seeing at least one business in the trade go tits up every week or so at the moment. And these arent one man bands, these companies are all legit and long standing firms in the employing at least 50 people upwards each. Companies that spent £100k a month with my dad this time last year are now spending £1k a month if that. :\. Manufacturing has gone well and truly down the toilet and its something that doesnt get that widely reported on by the media. All we seem to hear about is high street and finance sector businesses. The grim truth being that first in a very long line of dominoes in the manufacturing sector has been well and truly flicked....they're dropping like flies and I think this will lead to another sudden spike in unemployment very soon.

2W2R :uhoh:

[quant]

China’s economy rebounded in the second quarter, boosted by a surge in state spending and in bank lending, setting the scene for the biggest emerging economy to lead the world out of the worst global downturn since the Great Depression.
Economists had expected the economy to show some strong improvement as a huge 4.0 trillion yuan (£365 billion) government stimulus package announced last November began to take effect, but few had foreseen that annual gross domestic product (GDP) growth would accelerate in the second quarter to 7.9 per cent, up from 6.1 per cent in the first quarter.
That made China the world’s the best-performing big economy. It is now the third-biggest in the world.
There was growth from several sectors of the economy, including investment in fixed assets in urban areas in the first half and in June industrial production. Retail sales, a rough proxy for consumption, rose 15 per cent in June from a year earlier after May's 15.2 per cent increase.


China state fillip sends GDP soaring to 7.8% - Times Online (http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article6715807.ece)

:cool:

[quant]

The housing market is showing the first signs of an upturn since 2006, the Home Builders Federation (HBF) has said.The body's survey of Britain's major home builders found 60% of those asked had seen an increase in sales compared to the same time last year.
BBC NEWS | UK | 'Upturn signs' in housing market (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/8157072.stm)

:)

[2 Whites 2 Reds]

Thousands of workers and their families are expected to march on Teesside later in protest over the looming closure of a Corus plant in Redcar. The steelmaker has warned it may have to close the plant because a consortium of customers has withdrawn from a 10-year contract to buy its steel.
Unions say the closure will result in the loss of 2,000 jobs at the plant, as well as another 1,000 jobs elsewhere.


The dominoes of the Steel Industry that I mentioned earlier continue to fall....HARD!

Quant....I too saw the news from the HBF, however until the banks start widespread lending again its pretty meaningless. They can build all the houses they want but if there's no way for people to finance them then whats the point. According to the bloke who represents the banks that was on BBC breakfast, they're lending an additional £7bn a month but they're very reluctant to lend to anyone that they feel may not be able to meet the repayments.......Have the banks found their morals or is this just another excuse not to use the £billions of taxpayers money to start the market moving again????

2W2R :ok:

[quant]

OFFICIAL FIGURES this week for Britain’s second-quarter gross domestic product will confirm the worst of the recession is over. But a report from the Ernst & Young Item club, using the Treasury’s economic model, will warn of a fragile recovery, with the threat of a “double dip” back into recession.
Second-quarter GDP figures, to be published on Friday, are expected to show the economy shrank only slightly after its record six-monthly fall in the fourth quarter of last year and the first quarter of this year.
Some economists think the figures could even show a small rise but, according to Ideaglobal.com (http://www.ideaglobal.com/), the consensus among analysts is that there will be a fall of 0.3%, after drops of 1.8% and 2.4% respectively in the two previous quarters. The National Institute of Economic and Social Research, which produces monthly GDP estimates, expects a fall of 0.4%.
Signs that the economy is stabilising after its autumn and winter plunge will be welcomed – largely reflecting the start of a turnround in stocks, or inventories – but economists remain cautious.


UK economy heading for ‘fragile’ recovery - Times Online (http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article6719052.ece)

:)

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

The timeline in the last recession was:

House price and stock market crash, recession, unemployment rises, recession ends, unemployment continues to rise, large airlines go bust.

Spread that out between 1989 and 1994 and you have a crude measuring stick that one might apply to the current situation.

Once the unemployment figures have breached 3 million and are falling and once the public spending totals have been slashed; only then will we see how big an aviation sector the new economy can support.


WWW

[Reality czech]

Some interesting imformations on site for new pilot may bee I not want to start so soon my studys?

[quant]

Some interesting imformations on site for new pilot may bee I not want to start so soon my studys?

that's really up to you! oil is forcast to drop to nearly $20/barrel later on this year (probably won't be quite so dramatic) so i think it's a golden opportunity to start training...

The UK economy is set to shrink by 4.5% in this year, the biggest fall in a single year since 1945, according to an influential think-tank.
The downbeat forecast is more pessimistic than the consensus view, and considerably worse than the 3.5% fall predicted by the government.
The Ernst & Young Item Club also warned that hopes of economic recovery are "running ahead of reality".
It does, however, predict a return to modest growth of 0.5% in 2010.


BBC NEWS | Business | Economic recovery in UK 'on hold' (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8157876.stm)

[PPRuNe Towers]

Why a golden opportunity?

With Avgas only being made in a couple of batches per year there's immense hysteresis in the pricing mechanism and it never approaches the lows for general fuel in a volatile market such as we have had in recent years. Those who actually pay for avgas can confirm this was the case when oil was at it's previous low.

Simply put: at any given time avgas costs don't reflect what you are paying at the pump to fuel cars unless it is upwards.

If you want to cut and paste your researches how about the section in the latest oil reports specific to transportation fuel?

Rob

[Zippy Monster]

oil is forcast to drop to nearly $20/barrel later on this year (probably won't be quite so dramatic) so i think it's a golden opportunity to start training...

Was this forecast made by the same "experts" who said, around this time last year, that we'd soon be paying over $200/barrel?

We've already seen oil drop from $147 to around $30 and that hasn't made any difference to job availability, so why should a drop to $20 be any different?

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

ukdy - true that history doesn't completely repeat itself. Things will be different this time for sure. The whole industry is radically different now compared to 20 years ago if nothing else.

However, a knowledge of what happened in previous times of recession and surging unemployment at least provides a rough guide as to what to expect this time. Many Wannabes have little or no idea of how things were in commercial aviation in the period 1990 - 1994. I tend to bring it up a lot so as to encourage them to do a bit of research for themselves. Its all to easy to overwhelmed by the bull**** baffles brains approach of the Flying Training Industry and Her Majestys Government Ministers. Both are apt to lie.

Wikipedia provides suprisingly detailed and accurate articles on the demise of the likes of Dan Air and Air Europe.



At the end of the first week of March 1991 ILG and all of its UK-based subsidiaries entered administration resulting in 4,000 job losses.[6]:353 Many of the aircraft operated by Air Europe and its regional Air Europe Express affiliate were impounded, leaving a large number of passengers stranded at various airports in the UK and overseas.


[edit]Causes of collapse

The main causes leading to the collapse of ILG and its UK-based subsidiaries, including Air Europe and Air Europe Express, were:

A major, unforeseen downturn in traffic as a result of the recessionary economic conditions in the UK and a looming war to liberate Kuwait from Iraqi occupation.[1]:169-70, 192

Undercapitalisation.
An unsound financial structure.
Being financially overextended.
Lack of ownership of any significant assets.
A high-risk strategy.


Against the background of a looming war in the Gulf as a result of Iraq's invasion of Kuwait during the summer of 1990 and a major recession in the UK at that time, ILG began suffering heavy losses and mounting debts.[1]:169-70,192

ILG/Air Europe's senior management was aware that ILG had been facing a cash crunch from as early as 1989 onwards. This had made it more and more difficult for the group to finance the aircraft it already had on order, notably the F100s and the MD-11s.

Air Europe - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_Europe)


Wannabes are often unaware that in previous recessions large, household name airlines, who have recently grown and expanded and posted healthy profits - go bust. Can you think of any airlines that may currently be undercapitalised, with a somewhat unsound financial structure, who are arguably financially overextended whilst owning few significant assets? I think I can.

It is history that suggests to me that we will not see this period pass without the failure of some bigger beast airlines.

I hope for all our sakes that it doesn't happen. I don't think I could handle being a Wannabe again!


WWW

[quant]

Mortgage lending to homeowners jumped 17 per cent in June according to new figures, but economists remain cautious over the strength of the property market.
The Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) said that gross mortgage lending hit a six-month high of £12.3 billion in June, up 17 per cent from £10.5 billion recorded in June.


http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article6720261.ece

http://www.mysmiley.net/imgs/smile/jumping/jumping0004.gif (http://www.mysmiley.net/freesmiley.php?smiley=jumping/jumping0004.gif)

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

You've got to love the spin!


The CML's own figures show gross mortgage lending in the UK reached a record of £34.2bn in June 2007.

June 2009 is is £12.3bn.


And that is being spun as a recovery. Yeah. Right.

Lending is down to 36% of its level two years ago. The market is squarely on its arse and unemployment is rocketing and interest rates will HAVE to rise and rise. Any green shoots will be immediately sprayed with Agent Orange (look it up).

The Council of Mortgage Lenders and the British Banking Association are in competition to spin the most positive spin about the housing market. They almost make the Flying Training Industry look bluntly honest and impartial..


WWW

[piky]

Don't you ever get fed up with your Doom Mongering? We all know the Countries :mad:ed! as do any Wannabies and everyone else. Think positive,cast ya mind back to when you were a Wannabie and NOTHING was gonna stop ya being an 'Airline Pilot'.... Chill out Wee man, it came to you......it will come to others! :ok:

[Penguin68]

WWW - I agree with much of your analysis on the economy but eventually some good will come of this almighty clusterf*ck - one thing that will be better is that real UK house prices will be at least 50% lower than they were in 2007 ... or to put it another way, 100% more affordable to CTC/OAA/Jerez cadets who paid 80+ to get a summer only job that pays less than a tube driver. Also the lack of financing options - even most branches of Bank of Mater & Pater will stop lending soon - HAS to reduce the pool of low hours pilots which will eventually benefit T&C for existing drivers. The signs that the FTOs are getting desperate are there for everyone to see and the numbers coming through WILL drop dramatically very soon. In general I don't buy in to the theory that markets are self balancing but this one will.

I quit the UK last summer but for 15 years before that I was paid well by the industry that caused this mess. You've mentioned the shape of the curve before but it's no crystal ball - it can be wrong, it has been wrong before and it might be wrong now ... and since you know what it is supposed to mean would you rather see it inverted? We're in completely uncharted territory and nobody knows what the new economy will look like for airlines or anyone else when the dust eventually settles.

[quant]

If you want to cut and paste your researches how about the section in the latest oil reports specific to transportation fuel?I can't do all the work for you towers so get of your lazy behind and find it for yourself! The research i have is what i get paid for and if you send me a cheque i'll share it with you otherwise go and 'cut & paste' it for yourself.

There is some truth in what you have said though.

WWW don't worry i'll convert you yet! we are in one big mess and it will take time to get out off but there a certain hopeful signs ;)

[PPRuNe Towers]

Research? The link to the last global oil report is already on the forum.

Now then - how about pointing out the 'some truth' bit given you were suggesting to a poster that avgas prices would be declining significantly? Or is is a continuation of your contention back in June that oil would be going up to $200 usd per barrel?

Rob

[PPRuNe Towers]

Ryanair - News : Ryanair Cuts Stansted Winter Capacity by 40% (http://www.ryanair.com/site/EN/news.php?yr=09&month=jul&story=gen-en-210709)

Caution, the place you are entering might not be entirely spin proof

Rob

[quant]

Now then - how about pointing out the 'some truth' bit given you were suggesting to a poster that avgas prices would be declining significantly? Or is is a continuation of your contention back in June that oil would be going up to $200 usd per barrel?

If i could accurately predict the future i would be very wealthy indeed! However speculation of that sort did help me make lots of money so i'm really not fussed if i was wrong :)

I'll say it again get of your ass and find the figures for yourself i certainly won't help you.

[PPRuNe Towers]

But as I pointed out, I have the figures and they are on this forum.

What fuel pricing pressures and mechanisms make now a golden opportunity as you espoused?

Rob

[cjd_a320]

No Inflation for a while yet ...... :)

Thus, theory and current evidence clearly point to deflation as the overwhelming economic risk.

Hoisington's Quarterly out look and Review...

http://www.hoisingtonmgt.com/pdf/HIM2009Q2NP.pdf

Or Scribd link....
HIM2009Q2NP (http://www.scribd.com/doc/17513871/HIM2009Q2NP)

[Grass strip basher]

A quick message to "G-Spot lost"... in September last year we had a bet that Netjets would be laying of a significant number of people within a year.... I said they would... you said they wouldn't.... I believe the wager was a donation to the Pprune fund.... shall we declare this bet now closed?? :}

[Reality czech]

Things not bad as some peopes says for UK economy, I staying in Acton with Uncle Alexander he out of work actor at home but he get lot of work doing voice on advertizment.

I would like do this but for next flying lesson I must wash lot of cars.

[cjd_a320]

Why are people in a rush....??

Come back in ten years with a pot full of savings and ride the wave* back up.... Untill then sit back and watch from a distance...while the herd try and catch the falling knife....

:)

*Countercyclical over the larger degree time frame...
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Still deflating.....

Continental Air to Cut 1,700 More Jobs as Loss Widens ..

Continental Air to Cut 1,700 More Jobs as Loss Widens (Update1) - Bloomberg.com (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aUBS9ISrWjcw)

[quant]

Ryanair is to cut 670 flights a week, close ten routes and reduce frequency on a further 30 routes in the biggest winter shake-up for the airline so far.Ryanair to put scheduled routes on ice over winter - Times Online (http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/transport/article6722585.ece)

and so it begins :sad:

A leading think-tank is predicting it may take another five years for income per head to return to the level it was before the recession hit in early 2008.

BBC NEWS | Business | UK faces slow economic recovery (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8162217.stm)

[woodcoc2000]

to those who have seen recessions before..

Just tryin to suss something out.. what happens to the contents of the pool of pilots during a long drawn out recession?? obviously it will expand because people are being put into it due to losing jobs and those coming out of FTO's but will it shrink a bit because of people deciding to leave the profession?? If so what sort of pilot (demographic) will it be that decides to leave?? Common sense would say it would be reasonably experienced folks (read older and with wife and kids) due to the fact they have responsibilities and need an income NOW.. The inexperienced ones tend to be younger and have no or few responsibilities and can live with mom where as very very experienced pilots may still be able to get work..

Sooo; when the hiring does start who will be in the pool of available pilots?? will it be an even mix or will it be inexperienced folks because of more experienced people leaving aviation?? a seperate question would be who would the airlines be after?? Presumably when they have let people go; it would have been those who had been around less and who had less experience under their belts. Does this then leave an airline who is top heavy and now needs to hire younger or less experienced pilots in order to even out the demograhic of pilots within their company??

[Bealzebub]

It is a virtual reality version of the lobster/fish tank in a posh restaurant.

Candidates who might be deemed suitable for employment are told that they will be considered again as future vacancies arise. Sometimes those that are removed from employment will be told that they will be considered again if and when new opportunities arise. It gives the company a resource to possibly draw from at short notice rather than having to re-initiate a new recruitment programme.

The pool or tank in a busy restaurant is a useful feature that lets the customer select their own choice of product, with the knowledge that it looks fresh and attractive. In a busy restaurant the pool can be added to as necessary, ensuring a ready source of supply.

Inevitably, sometimes the product will become damaged or cease to be fresh in the pool and it can then be removed, discarded and replaced with something fresher, or if the market contracts can be emptied altogether. The pool/tank is a resource for the restaurant. Not every fish or lobster will become a fine culinary presentation. The best will usually be selected first, the leftovers will be discarded or cycled into other products as their longevity and lack of freshness make them less appealing to the customer. Fresh additions will often be selected ahead of older survivors.

When the market for fresh lobster drops off, the product can be humanely thrown back in the sea. The tank can be emptied and cleaned with bleach. It may provide window dressing for a while, but if it is taking up space and/or costing money to run, it is likely to be put in a cupboard.

An airline holding pool has many of the same characteristics. It provides a resource for the company. It can pick and choose who it might want from that pool at its own whim. It can add to it at any time. It can empty the pool or discard items as it wishes. Unlike the real pool, in this virtual pool the product is only "an expression of interest" that might have moved on elsewhere. It costs little or nothing to maintain, and because it is virtual, it provides no guarantees of priority of supply, for either the candidate or the company.

Airline "holding pools" are therefore simply a group of people who have both given and received an "expression of interest," at a particular point in time. There is no particular commitment on either party. As time passes some of the denizens of the holding pool will cease to be as attractive to the company that interviewed them. Likewise some might have found employment elsewhere. A "holding pool" is not a job, or even a promise of a job. The companies expect the candidates to realise this and act accordingly. The candidates themselves should realize this and accept that as a product they have a definite shelf life in this respect.

[cjd_a320]

Enjoyed the Tank Fish analogy Bealzebub.... :)


To add to Quant's point....
There was a note doing the rounds last month or so put out by GS's Jim O'neill. It pointed out, if we have a "robust" growth of 3% per year, it will take over 21 years just to get back to 2007 asset wealth levels, such as been the destruction.

Wait until next year, when it will be the UK's Public Sector turn to deflate. :eek:

[JB007]

Nice one Bealzebub, very much enjoyed your fish tank!

[woodcoc2000]

Bealzebub

Geez you must have just been waiting for a time to use that analogy.. liked it though..http://images.ibsrv.net/ibsrv/res/src:www.pprune.org/get/images/smilies/thumbs.gif

[cjd_a320]

After Delta Airlines reports a $257 million 2Q loss...

The eight biggest carriers, according to Michael Linenberg (BOA) will be on course for quarterly losses that may total $1.2 billion....

Still deflating....

[cjd_a320]

"It's The Real Economy, Stupid"

We are now in the early stages of depression. The economic indicators we follow to track economic activity are all signaling a slowdown of massive proportions. You woundn't know it reading the mainstream papers of course..........This month we're keeping it simple by focusing on the real economy....... cont on below

Eric Sprott and David Franklin
sprot asset magament
http://www.sprott.com/Docs/MarketsataGlance/July_2009.pdf

[v6g]

JB007 - I could watch your avatar for hours ......
http://www.avatarsdb.com/avatars/scroll_bar_guy.gif
I've obviously got a very small mind

[cjd_a320]

July 24 (Bloomberg) -- The U.K. economy shrank more than twice as much as economists forecast in the second quarter as a record annual slump in construction, banking and business services kept Britain mired in recession
Gross domestic product contracted 0.8 percent from the first quarter, the Office for National Statistics said today in London. Economists predicted a 0.3 percent drop, according to the median of 32 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey. From a year earlier, the economy shrank 5.6 percent, the most since records began in 1955.

U.K. Economy Shrank by 0.8% in the Second Quarter (Update1) - Bloomberg.com (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aQU058hNE5Bw)

[Cirrus_Clouds]

At least the reduction is less than before and we're through the worst and things are starting to improve everywhere. :ok: ... this doesn't mean that some ill sheep won't be slaughtered though.

It's best to make progress than none at all.

We're going in the right direction and that's what's important! "Up" ... quite literally for me anyhow.