Growing Evidence That The Upturn Is Upon Us

[spinnaker]

littco

Russia was almost untouched by the Great Depression because they had excluded themselves from the western markets and the capitalist sytem, AND they were already on the floor.

This time around, they have come to the party. I don't know how significant the impact is, but they are most definitely at the party. Its in our interests that they don't go down the pan, so to speak, as economic upheavals spreads into political extremism, a complication we can well do without in Russia.

[Grass strip basher]

If you are not afraid of what is going on and what it may mean for your job security, quality of life etc then frankly you leave me scratching my head as to what will worry you..... perhaps a run on the supermarkets?? Much more dramatic than a run on a bank.... not quite there yet.:sad:

[ChrisLKKB]

One draw back with the internet is that it seems to have replaced those previously mentioned guys who walked up and down the high street with a sandwich board saying the end of the world is nigh at times of financial uncertainty, they brightened up what was otherwise a rather gloomy situation...they seem to have multiplied too ;)

I've just made a rather cheeky phone call to a large investment company to see if I can get anymore information of the back of this article Anthony Bolton: Why now's the time to buy - Telegraph (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/banksandfinance/3131765/Anthony-Bolton-Why-nows-the-time-to-buy.html) and other similar ones to see if I can figure out where I can invest some money which was previously in premium bonds. I'm not normally a gambling person but as we keeping getting told this is the end of civilisation as we know it i'm going to give it a try.

Some of my questions were as follows, will RBS still be here in 20 years time ? Most probably yes. I am aware they do have problems but are they being excessively battered by low confidence levels ? Yes, looking back in 5 or 6 years time we'll probably be thinking that £1.60 was very cheap for RBS shares. What would your prefered banks be ? We prefer banks with more exposure to the Asian markets like HSBC. Are they undervalued? Yes.

So after reading Anthony Boltons article i'm going to put a few pence on RBS and a few more on HSBC on the basis that I wont gamble anymore that i'm prepared to loose, besides in 5 years time they aren't going to do any worse that my premium bonds :rolleyes: .....now what about the mining sector ? :E

[ChrisLKKB]

GSB. Short term i'm not worried about my quality of life because for a few years I can put up with a bit of hardship knowing that in the long term i'll be back to where I once was, riding the crest of a slump :} I could do with loosing a few lbs anyway, and what is hardship these days? Going back to how we lived in the 70's. Eating cheap cuts of meat, making meals with yesterdays leftovers, minimal of variety in the shops, the odd power cut, catching the bus, mending your old clothes (which will probably be a little bit baggy by now), no Sky TV, thinking and saving hard for any purchases ? We got through the 70's, we even got through the Great Depression, we'll do it again and we'll probably screw it all up again. This time though some of us will be a little wiser.

This current situation has put a bit of a dent in my plans but that's life.

btw if we do go back to the 70's at least the music will be better but we wont have to put up with crap beer :}

[spinnaker]

GSB.

Your wrong, don't be afraid, plan and act. Those that do that will come out the other end in better shape. Make no mistake, I feel this crisis will turn into the Great Depression MkII. But sitting there being 'afraid' will help no one. Doing something to prepare, plan and act, even at this late stage, is better than doing nothing, other than being afraid.

[ChrisLKKB]

If you are not afraid of what is going on and what it may mean for your job security, quality of life etc then frankly you leave me scratching my head as to what will worry you.....

Just a thought but aren't we all here because our ultimate goal is to leave our current jobs and get into aviation in one way or another ?

[Aerospace101]

I think BAs share price is more to do with a £1.5bn pension black hole, than the state of the economy

I think its more to do with the decrease in premium pax by 8% :{

[spinnaker]

Just a thought but aren't we all here because our ultimate goal is to leave our current jobs and get into aviation in one way or another ?

I'm an old fart that likes to see others succeed and make the industry better than when I was in it. Bit difficult just now, though.

[Teeks]

Off topic :D

Where can a complete financial amateur like me buy some stocks? I have to admit that I don't even know where to begin. I wont bother googling as it'll provide countless links, and I have no idea which ones are legit. I've got a load of savings that was going to pay for my license, but I might spend some of it on the markets and try to make some money...

[Re-Heat]

If you want to actually hold them, do an online investment through someone such as Hargreaves Lansdown or Barclays Stockbrokers - remember that you have a £7,200 tax free ISA allowance available through which you can purchase, avoiding all capital gains tax on those stocks.

If you want to speculate but not hold - spread betters are for you - but you can lose more than you invest through those instruments...

[ChrisLKKB]

If you Google the word fool you should find 'the motley fool' website. I found that very helpful. There is an ISA option I believe and plenty of info on what the options are.

(I don't know whether it compares favourably to Barclays or Hargreeves though, it should do)

[ChrisLKKB]

If I heard the news correctly it would seem Germany isn't guaranteeing it's banks accounts 100%. Looks like the worst places to put your dosh now is somewhere where they are guaranteeing 100% of all your money (ie Ireland and Greece) as they don't have a snow balls chance of honouring their guarantees :E

[Teeks]

Well that was easy. Went to Hargreaves Lansdown's website and bought some shares.

Cheers for the speedy replies!

[ChrisLKKB]

Looks like your post mysteriously dissapeared again Spinnaker, probably just as well as those links you posted could have cost Danny 10 p in lost revenue :rolleyes:

[hollingworthp]

Just logged on for the first time today and ChrisLKKB seems to be having a one-sided conversation with himself. Are there several posts missing?

[spinnaker]

hollingworthp

I had a couple of disappearing posts today. Nothing earth shattering as others have covered what I was on about anyway. I've sent a PM to the mods to see if I've committed an infringement or something.

[biaeghh]

For WWW ands Chris,
On a serious note what happens when a country like Iceland declares itself bankrupt, I can't recall a country going bankrupt before!

Your thoughts on this occasion would be appreciated!!

[heli_port]

http://i300.photobucket.com/albums/nn3/heli_port/_45067369_moneycrisis466_308.gif
http://i300.photobucket.com/albums/nn3/heli_port/_45070821_proportional_circles466.gif

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7644238.stm
(http://s300.photobucket.com/albums/nn3/heli_port/)

[biaeghh]

thanks for the graphics, is that for the benefit of the s@n readers amongst us

[ChrisLKKB]

Just a thought, if Darling is going to go through with the rumoured recapitalisation of banks and building societies it would be in the Governments interest to let the banks sweat, shake as many people out of the market as possible (loosing loads of money) then pump all the rescue funds into bank preferential shares making loads of money for the Government coffers, probably in quite a short space of time (months rather than years).

Unless i've missed something this could be one hell of a stealth tax!

I've signed up for a share dealing account although the one i've picked is going to take days to set up :ugh: Hope it's not too late to miss the what could be a possible low for banks. I'd be interested to hear if anyone knows of an account I can set up a little more quickly ? HELP :ok:

BIAEGHH...No idea, i'll be trawling through the financials again, if they have any information then i'll post it. Regarding savers, at a guess i'd say any money in an Icelandic bank account will be covered by the £50K protection scheme (apparently there are 300,000 UK savers in Iceland).

[EGHH]

I've signed up for a share dealing account although the one i've picked is going to take days to set up :ugh: Hope it's not too late to miss the what could be a possible low for banks. I'd be interested to hear if anyone knows of an account I can set up a little more quickly ? HELP :ok:


That's pretty standard in my experience. It's all down to the money laundering laws. When I set an account up with 'a sharedealing company with a silly sounding name' I ended up with about 10 pages of passwords, pin numbers and what-not. Some by post, some on the web and some by email :}

I hope you have more luck than I did with your first adventure. I bought Northern Rock shares last year at £2.21, watched them go to £2.73 but got cocky and didn't sell. Oops.

Edit: I wonder if the humourless Brown has ever said in a cabinet meeting "How do I look, Darling?"

[Grass strip basher]

I think it is highly unlikely the government are trying to push down bank share prices to buy then cheap! Thats the last thing they want!

I think the government are sh8tting themselves and desparately looking to restore stability!! Oh for a week when the markets only move 1-2% like the good old days!

The pref capital injections has been used effectively in banking crisis in the past. This sort of MASSIVE state intevention is always a necessary step to recovery. Extremely unpleasent for all involved but will help avoid financial collapse. Will not help avoid a severe recession though.:(

[spinnaker]

ChrisLKKB

I don't think your too late, if anything a little early. Most (all) of the banks have taken big losses today. The biggest being RBS on rumours that it has approached the government for funding. Because there is no clear political policy on what the government is likely to do i.e. nationalise or give a big hefty loan, your essentially betting on the future of a bankrupt company. Shares at 101.2 look mighty tempting, but I feel nothing more than a gamble on a horse. If I had money to risk, I'd take the bet. If its money to invest, I'd stay well clear. I'm only assuming RBS is what tickles your fancy, whatever you choose, I hope you see a lot of up ticks, something in short supply of late.

Good luck :ok:

[ChrisLKKB]

:}

Thanks EGHH, with RBS at 99p per share at one point today it's got to be worth a small bet.

GSB.

Yeah, the resession is here whether we like it or no...as the union of porn actresses says, we've got to take it on the chin. The only thing that can be done is to ensure the financial infrastructure doesn't crumble.

(and it would seem there are still people starting integrated courses :ugh: )

[DanT1982]

If your looking to get exposure to price movement quickly just get an IG index account and replicate the share purchase using a spread bet. Can be set up in less than an hour provided you don't have an adverse history. No good if you are in for the long term as you'll have to keep rolling contracts but think they offer June 09 contracts on most UK names and the bid-offer is normally quite tight plus its tax free. I've managed to make a few quick bucks in the recent turmoil, but be careful and make sure you put sensible stops orders on.

[ChrisLKKB]

Shares at 101.2 look mighty tempting, but I feel nothing more than a gamble on a horse.Yeah, i'm probably going to drip feed some money in (taking into consideration trading fees) over a period of time. I'm going for RBS as the outsider so to speak and wont put in any more than I can afford to loose. Their dividends are always good and if they are here in 5 years time then fingers crossed......(don't speak too soon etc).

Dan, thanks, i'll look into that. I've considered spread betting but knowing you can loose much more than your steak always made me nervous.

[spinnaker]

I think the government are sh8tting themselves and desparately looking to restore stability!! Oh for a week when the markets only move 1-2% like the good old days!

Those are my thoughts exactly. The climate as is, a cohesive global plan of action is now nigh on impossible. In the political arena, its every man for himself. The EU, although has no mandate to cover or control member states economies, there is nothing to stop a voluntary, organised and planned policy being put into place. We've already seen self interest take over, and history proves that this is detrimental. :(

[spinnaker]

icesave - high interest savings accounts (http://www.icesave.co.uk/)

Stops withdrawals and deposits. :sad:

[Re-Heat]

On a serious note what happens when a country like Iceland declares itself bankrupt, I can't recall a country going bankrupt before!
Look at what happened during Argentina's debt default, or the Russian debt crisis - those were effectively bankruptcies.

[ChrisLKKB]

There's more discussion on the Icelandic situation here http://www.pprune.org/jet-blast/346061-iceland-going-broke.html

[wobble2plank]

Its all going to be fine, David Milliband has come out of the Cabinet meeting stating that things are 'serious' and that the Cabinet is working 'Hard'.

Fantastic the plastic haired political numpty has finally woken up to reality!

Pretty 'real time' update eh?

:E

[Lurking123]

I find the turn in discussion here rather interesting. Reams of advice about spending money wisely (ie on flying) and now we're talking about having a flutter on the markets.

My gramps always told me to only invest money in the markets that you wouldn't be bothered about losing.:eek: Personally, I wouldn't invest in any financial institution right now; Il'd be looking at something with a little more substance. Then again, I'm risk averse.

[ChrisLKKB]

Wise words.

Right now I suspect most view it as a gamble and will only be investing with amounts they are prepared to loose, it's still better odds than getting a job if you are starting an integrated course now though.

[JB007]

Having been on the other side of 30W for the past week, interesting watching CNN reporting how many (allegedly) Senators and members of Congress had (allegedly) bought shares before the first vote for the $700bn bail out hoping for a large and quick return on investment as markets went sky high...naff gamble that turned out to be...

[spinnaker]

Lurking123

I can see a certain irony. People do make money out of mayhem. Brings back memories of Northern Rock. I was short selling, whilst at the same time my solicitor was finalising a 110% mortgage for a client. Did it all from the same office.

I think most people will see any sort of dealing right now, as an extremely risky business. Particularly as the whole thing is being driven by emotion and the situation is changing by the minute. Your gramps knew a thing or two about trading

[Lurking123]

Agreed. To me, hard cash and commodities (eg gold) are the only true guarantee right now. On Saturday I pulled a substantial sum (way above the FSCS limit) out of Icesave and yesterday I did the same with Kaupthing-Edge. Juggling bank accounts is getting rather tiresome.

[spinnaker]

Its getting hard to find a safe haven. Money has almost become a burden. Tried stuffing the mattress yet? :eek:

[Aerospace101]

Channel4 dispatches next monday;

Dispatches: The Trouble with British Airways
Current affairs series. An investigation into British Airways, assessing the airline's reputation following a series of blunders involving price-fixing, mislaid baggage and the troubled opening of Heathrow's Terminal 5

[helimutt]

All of this gold is becoming hard to hide now though. The dog is wondering why i'm now digging holes in the back garden and burying boxes of 'stuff'.
At least 4,000 Kruggerands are fairly easy to hide about the place. :ok:


PS, does anyone think my outstanding loans, credit card amounts and overdraft will be at risk? I'd hate to have to move them elsewhere.

So glad I don't have any money or a pension right now. :E

[Grass strip basher]

If the Dispatches program is like the ones they did recently on the banking sector it will be sh*te.... tabloid journalism at its worst... so called experts who have huge issues and chips on their shoulders.

[L'aviateur]

Credit crunch is GOOD for business, says boss of Ryanair | Mail Online (http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1071689/Credit-crunch-GOOD-business-says-boss-Ryanair.html)

I'm surprised no-one has picked up this one yet? Might be a good excuse to quit the job, take out a 80,000k loan and goto Oxford! :rolleyes:

Unless you have the money to lose, regardless of the snippets of positive news, I really don't think integrated is a very sensible option in the present economical climate. And to be honest I think even if you go modular; you probably need to keep some backup plans.

I have friends flying charter and instructing by day and waiting tables by night. But then again they are happy flying, and haven't taken out 80k loans to repay.

[spinnaker]

L'aviateur

There are times when I really wish MOL would put a sock in his fat gob. Sure, there will be more airlines going bust, but is that reason to celebrate? Is he really the type of businessman we really need in the industry, where all he wants is a disaster. As potential SLF, I find his comments insulting, when he seems to rejoice in the fact people will become poorer and have to fly with him.

I personally would like to poke the **** one in the eye.

No offence to anyone working for him. I just find MOL a dislikeable git. I'm glad he is not my neighbour. If he were, I'd make sure 6 saddle backs crap on his doorstep ever morning.

[DUXBY]

Don't we all love MOL I bet he can't wait to mop up the business from any further collapses.
He says that people are downtrading but if we are to believe his predictions of a drepression his latest boom in business will be short lived. The majority of the market he is pitching to will soon consider a cheap weekend away as a luxury they can do without, if not already.

[ChrisLKKB]

Agreed with everything above re' FR and MOL and...

his latest boom in business will be short lived

IMO He'll be hoovering up the final few pennys before there is a significant drop in air travel and winning a little more brand loyalty on the way. It's going to put them in a better position to weather the recession and to make the most of the up turn when it finally arrives. Yet more good news for wannabees who plan and time the start of their trainning carefully as long as FR continues with it's current trend of recruiting low hour pilots.

(it's also another cheap but effective MOL publicity excercise)

[ChrisLKKB]

The upturn could be some way away...
The report indicated that the squeeze on credit, as banks cut back on the amount they lend in order to repair their balance sheets, could endure until beyond 2010, implying that families will still be feeling the effects of the credit crunch far longer than most currently expect.
It said: "The deleveraging process may continue past the end of the decade. Bank balance sheets are under pressure to expand, as certain types of near-bank entities contract, fold, or are bought, and credit is re-intermediated, and as firms draw down pre-negotiated credit lines."


IMF urges Darling to act fast on credit crisis - Telegraph (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/financialcrisis/3153128/IMF-urges-Darling-to-act-fast-on-credit-crisis.html)

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

The pound will be toast as soon as the mass bank nationalisation is announced and IR's begin to be drastically cut.

Foreign holidays and breaks are going to look much more expensive next year. I suspect that God is going to add to the airlines misery by making the summer of 2009 a 4 month heatwave. Things are so bad that I now believe Mother Nature will turn against UK airlines.

There is absolutely no way that several UK airlines will not go bust in the next 12 months. DO NOT expect to be able to get a job for years.

The present crisis was my worst fear and now it is happening it will take a while for the economic damage to become apparent. Japan's Lost Decade will be the closest guide.

EU wide there will easily be 50 airlines cease trading this winter. Wannabes will be in the job market with all those pilots. It will be 1991 with knobs on.


WWW

[Aerospace101]

WWW- are you secretly robert preston, the business editor of the BBC?:ooh:

Totally agree with you.

Earlier this year I was thinking this was just another blip like 9/11. Upturn, Downturn etc. However this is the MOTHER OF ALL DOWNTURNS. It should be classed in a league of its own. We've only just reached tip of the iceberg. The evidence so far;
- Global market collapse; not seen since 1930s era
- UK economic recession - less people flying on holiday, less business premium pax
- Banking/credit crisis - no cash for airlines
- High Oil Prices (at 9/11 it was something stupid like $15 barrel!!)

The only airline which looks like it will win in this situation if flybe. So flybe will be the only hope for wannabes over the next 5yrs or so. flybe have a regional market which is more resistant to recession. most fuel efficient aircraft for their regional model.

I think Ryanair have bitten of more than they can chew. MOL has admitted theyll lose money this winter - but how much!?! Ryanair pilots are on forced unpaid leave...

Watched Branson on TV today. His reply about Virgin Atlantic was a very hesitant 'OK'. If BA are having it hit hard on premium traffic, good luck to virgin!

XL went bust because it ran out of cash. All the uk airlines (except flybe) MUST be losing money, or barely breaking even now. The question therefore is, which airlines have enough cash to ride out this storm??

I suppose the only good news for wannabes is that flybe are obvously going to continue recruiting, and their new MPL is a great opportunity for wannabes to get a shot at an airline career from abinitio.

And WHEN the upturn comes (which wont be for years and years) it will be the mother of all upturns!! Itll be the days of when all you needed was a driving licence to become a BA sponsored cadet!! :eek:

[heli_port]

Further evidence that the upturn is upon us:

Four hundred Ryanair pilots and cabin crew will be forced to take one week of unpaid leave this year as the budget airline cuts back flights from Dublin and Stansted.

Ryanair crews must take unpaid leave, says Michael O'Leary - Times Online (http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/transport/article4901947.ece)

http://img2.mysmiley.net/imgs/smile/fighting/fighting0038.gif (http://www.mysmiley.net/free-msn-smileys.php)

[spinnaker]

Although the current economic phase is not yet fully played out yet (the collapse of the banking system), but does anyone see evidence of deflation? I do.

[ChrisLKKB]

What evidence is that, isn't it a bit early to be calling it? Good for consumers who have cash, not so good for house sellers.

I'm looking forward to a cut in government spending (other than the bail out) as I think they need to be looking to make better use of the money they spend, prune a bit of dead wood out of the NHS and the like etc.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

The only thing to look forward to is decades of higher taxes and lower growth as a result of this epic public 'spending'.

What will happen is what has to happen. Which is house prices must come down; the banks' assets must be repriced; insolvent banks must be closed; interest rates must encourage saving; consumers will have to stop borrowing to spend and everyone will have to start paying their debts.

Debt deflation is where we are headed rather than hyper inflation.

It will be economically painful but the sun still shines.


WWW


ps I have lot of sympathy for this hilarious view:

BANKS TO LEND YOU YOUR OWN MONEY - The Daily Mash (http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/business/banks-to-lend-you-your-own-money-200810081308/)

[Re-Heat]

50 bps rate cuts globally including BoE.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

So my savings income is dropping then. Great. All sorted.

Japan took their Interest Rates to zero and it didn't help them either.

WWW

[ChrisLKKB]

The only thing to look forward to is decades of higher taxes and lower growth as a result of this epic public 'spending'.

do you wander around with a little black rain cloud over your head WWW ?

I'm not overly happy about the points 2 and 3 but on the whole your predictions below for the most part are worth celebrating alone!

Which is house prices must come down; the banks' assets must be repriced; insolvent banks must be closed; interest rates must encourage saving; consumers will have to stop borrowing to spend and everyone will have to start paying their debts.In short, a return to the real work I think!

[biaeghh]

Chris,

Well said and welcome back to the ratrace,

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

No little black clouds for me. The suns out on my farm, the birds are singing and I'm just back from walking the dog in the beautiful woods and off now to do a quick whiz around Europe.

:)


WWW

[MIKECR]

www,

I bet your that grumpy bu**er that I meet everyday when im down the woods with my 2 dogs ...!!;)

But 'yes', the sun is shining today, the birds are singing, my mortgage rate has just come down again, my local garage is 25 pence a litre cheaper than 3 months ago....and I've just had positive news on the job front!

[ChrisLKKB]

Chris,

Well said and welcome back to the ratrace,Thanks biaeghh but to be fair I don't think I ever left it, I think there may be a misunderstanding about the level of pessimism that us grumpies have.

Long term I think we will come through the storm in pretty good shape as long as the government uses its recently purchased position wisely. We still have quite a long way to go though imo (exactly how far I don't no).

WWW is entitled to his own opinion (more than I am in the context of this board) and although I think he makes some good points I tend to go with the slightly more positive view of the senior fund managers and banking cheifs that things aren't quite as bad as some of the extremists would have us believe.

It's probably wise to brace for more shocks in the coming months and keep our fingers crossed that Anthony Boltons prediction is correct and that the (long road) to recovery starts with the banks.

[spinnaker]

ChrisLKKB

I am referring to the massive amounts of money disappearing from global economies, the drop in oil and food prices and lack of credit, the fall in demand and output. I find the reason given by the Bank of England for cutting rates today interesting. It stated that today's cut was to achieve the 2% inflation target. The traditional solution to high inflation is to increase interest rates, but that is not the case. I'm not disagreeing with the cuts, just querying the reason given. Inflation is not, as I see it, the problem, nor did it get us into this mess. Deflation on the other hand could be devastating, with an ever downward spiral. The classic remedy for deflation, although short term, is to cut bank rates, which is what they did today. Maybe I am premature with this call, but I feel that if the bottom isn't reached soon with the financial markets, deflation could be the new enemy during 2009.

[ChrisLKKB]

The classic remedy for deflation, although short term, is to cut bank rates, which is what they did today. Maybe I am premature with this call, but I feel that if the bottom isn't reached soon with the financial markets, deflation could be the new enemy during 2009.

Or print more money (there must be a catch with that though) ?? Interesting RBS and HBOS have climbed a bit (16.00) where as Lloyds and Barclays have slumped, HSBC has remained compartively steady.

I wonder if short term investors drove RBS and HBOS up briefly with the sole intention of making a quick buck?

I hope we find the bottom very soon and you're wrong about 2009.

Firstly, this government bank buyout with taxpayers money. It'll be obvious to some but definately not many that the money the government is using to do this will have to be borrowed as the public finances are up the swanny. That means higher taxes.

It may mean higher taxes but loads tax payers were happy to benefit from the boom whilst it was happening buying their over priced houses on 100% mortgages, furnishing them with flat screen tv's, new bathrooms, kitchens and putting brand new mpvs and 4x4 on their block paved drive ways. They reveled in the increased spending power and spent money like it was going out of fashion, now it's time to pay the piper.

[spinnaker]

Or print more money (there must be a catch with that though) ??

That's how we got into this mess, by creating far too much money from debt, and the debt went bad...etc. Ironically, the cure we are looking for IS more money, but that has to be sourced elsewhere by raiding bank and national reserves, so far that has not been enough, and reserves have been shifted around by cash investors. That's part of the catch.

Interesting RBS and HBOS have climbed a bit (16.00) where as Lloyds and Barclays have slumped, HSBC has remained compartively steady.
RBS and HBOS stand to gain the most from the UK bailout. But, the rescue plan has punitive strings and is less attractive to LTSB and Barclay, they are not so bad (at the moment) but they still need the money. I reckon they will hang out for a better deal on the Interbank system. I think they will fail and LTSB and Barclay will have to take the government package at some stage. Also remember the rescue plan is against the interests of the shareholder. The only thing that has happened today that is positive, is that a coordinated plan was put into action by European, American and UK central banks. The emphasise is coordinated, the rate cut in itself is of little consequence. If more coordinated action in the future happens, then at least the slump may be brought under control quicker.

[benish]

The government themselves are in debt so its just a vicious circle. If it wasn't for the media peoples confidence in money and investment wouldnt have fallen, there wouldn't be a need for worry either. HBOS wouldn't have gone down until people started taking there savings.

Anyway, I'm not worried about this financial crisis, we have to get on with our lives. Fair enough we may lose a night out once/twice a month because of rising costs but its not too major. Im almost 19 and I'm going to Naples nexzt year to do Multiflights AB Intio, in 2-3 years when ive got a fATPL i have hope it will all be going uphill again.
I work at an airport at the mion and I speak to pilots on a daily basis, all have them say if you want it that badly you just go all in for it, they would go now with no holding back.
A ryanair pilot told me they need 300 new pilots next year and expect a 40% increase in the amount of pilots over the next 3 years, not sure how true that is but its very promising.

Keep the faith.

[spinnaker]

A ryanair pilot told me they need 300 new pilots next year and expect a 40% increase in the amount of pilots over the next 3 years, not sure how true that is but its very promising.

Sorry, but I feel someone is pulling your leg

:ugh: :ugh: :ugh:

[JB007]

I speak to pilots on a daily basis, all have them say if you want it that badly you just go all in for it, they would go now with no holding back.


Speaking as a pilot, I wouldn't dream of giving anyone that advice in 2008...take off those shiny jet tinted spectacles...put them on again in 2012.

Edited to say, had I of realised that was my 1000th post i'd would have put in more effort!

[ChrisLKKB]

Also remember the rescue plan is against the interests of the shareholder

Tell me about it :ugh: I''ll be interested to find out the exact details. I find it somewhat ironic that the government are going to punish those who invest their money in UK countries yet are happy to bail out those who invest their money overseas:*


Anyway, I'm not worried about this financial crisis, we have to get on with our lives. Fair enough we may lose a night out once/twice a month because of rising costs but its not too major.

Oh dear, we are experiencing the worst financial situation since the great depression of 1929, many people are facing loosing their houses and long term unemployment, savings and pension funds have been decimated and you think all we have to worry about is missing a couple of evenings out on the P:mad:iss. What do they teaching people at school these days :ugh:

[spinnaker]

What do they teaching people at school these days

Grammar by any chance? :E

Sorry I just couldn't resist, the temptation was to great. ;)

[ChrisLKKB]

LOL...I wasn't brought up, I was dragged up:}

[benish]

Thanks for the advice, but the way I see this is that I can continue in work for 5 years ish, in a field that pays me about 1000 pounds a month, whilst trying to save for flying and (by the time im 20 ish) also have enough to be living with my partner and thinking about marriage and family. It just aint gonna happen on the wage im on. Ok i have a levels but no Uni degree. I want to work in an airport (on the crums it pays) and not behind a desk. So its go for it now and come out of debt sooner by hopefully getting a job within 5 years or stick it out on crums for wages for 5 years and wait 8 years before im an airline pilot. I already have about 2/5ths of the money needed to reaching this goal anyway so a loan wont be neccassary for about 2 years yet (just to let you know my picture).
Working alongside Jet2, and speaking to their ops and asking how its looking for jobs and them telling me that its going well, there expanding, alot of there elder pilots are moving on to larger airlines, we need men .... its not too bad.

I know i'm going to get the "go to Uni arguement", but why create more debt at this financial time of bleak? HBOS would not have gone down if its own customers had not have panicked. Fact. When you have a family member that works high up in the busines you find out one or two things.

Thats just my view.
I also think that people like your self, and others, continually telling us how bad this recession is are only making it worse. I have studied economics and consumer confidence goes a long way in casuing the problems we are having now.

[ChrisLKKB]

I also think that people like your self, and others, continually telling us how bad this recession is are only making it worse. I have studied economics and consumer confidence goes a long way in casuing the problems we are having now.You're quite right to be sceptical of the advice given by a bunch of anonymous grumpies on an internet forum but you it would pay you to take the information in the IMFs global stability report seriously....

The report indicated that the squeeze on credit, as banks cut back on the amount they lend in order to repair their balance sheets, could endure until beyond 2010, implying that families will still be feeling the effects of the credit crunch far longer than most currently expect.
It said: "The deleveraging process may continue past the end of the decade. Bank balance sheets are under pressure to expand, as certain types of near-bank entities contract, fold, or are bought, and credit is re-intermediated, and as firms draw down pre-negotiated credit lines."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/financialcrisis/3153128/IMF-urges-Darling-to-act-fast-on-credit-crisis.html

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Of course if you'd listened to this Grumpy you'd have sold your house pre-crash, got out of Icesave in March, shorted the FTSE and the banks, planned for a major recession AND you'd still have enough left over for Cod n' Chips and your bus home. :p

So listen to me now. This recession will last another 20 months and it hasn't really got going yet. There will be around 3 million unemployed. At least 2 of the top ten UK airlines will not survive ( I have no idea which two ). One of them will be in the top 5 in terms of size. In Europe things will be worse as there is less airline efficiency to start with.

DO NOT attain a JAA CPL IR Frzn ATPL and 200hrs in your logbook and expect to get a job for at least five years. FIVE.


Bailing out the banks is only the start of it. K-wave winter beckons.


WWW

[a797]

To any 18 year old guy considering attaining an fatpl at this time i would say dont do it!!

[ix_touring]

shagging as many college birds as you possibly can.


Why be fussy? the dim ones can be just as fun... :} :E

[Celtic Pilot]

Benish you shod listen to the advice given, Im just outa uni, and had the best years of my life, gaining a fatpl, wont beat them even...

a797 is right all the way regarding the lifestyle........ Whats the point of an 18 yr old worrying about 1K monthly repayments.... You said "" I prob wont be an airline pilot until 8 years time."" making you 26/27, whats the hell is wrong with that... your still on the young side of the average i wod say....

I think you should really think about where you are going to go after school, flight school would eb the wrong option the matter how rosy you make it look to yourself....(Denial about the current situation)

Good luck with it all anyhow

[spinnaker]

benish

Yesterday the chancellor spent £20k of my money, your money, www's money, everyone's money.

Listen to what the grumps have said. Go to Uni.

[Re-Heat]

I also think that people like your self, and others, continually telling us how bad this recession is are only making it worse. I have studied economics and consumer confidence goes a long way in casuing the problems we are having now.
Well get this from someone with a degree in economics, a senior position in banking, and a comprehensive background in the aviation industry.

- It is a terrible market
- It will not recover soon
- You are kidding yourself to think that you would be in a position to be recruited as a low-hour fATPL for at least a number of years
- Consumer confidence is falling dramatically
- It is a global problem with nowhere to hide - no oppotunities anywhere.

I am not a grumpy, faceless complainer on a bulletin board - I am living it daily.

Get it?

[spinnaker]

Re-Heat

So its not looking good then.

[Re-Heat]

Not at all

[Grass strip basher]

I disagree with Re-heat for once.... the package the UK government put in place yesterday was a HUGE step in the right direction. It is the start of stopping the rot in the banking sector which is a pre-requisite to any broader recovery. Banks are being recapitalised (either by the state or shareholders) and term funding markets are getting increased government guarantees/backing. This is very important.

The banking crisis is not over by any means but we are now moving in the right direction which is a clear positive. It is too late now however to stop and very very nasty recession and the pilot job market is going to get a hell of a lot worse before it gets better.... BUT government now appears to have got its head around the scale of the problem which is a complete about turn from just 2-3 months ago.

Don't get me wrong the sun hasn't come out but this is the first time I have had anything positive to say about the situation for over 6 months. (You would still have to be an idiot/gazzillionaire to sign up for an integrated course at the moment though).

[kala87]

Benish:

What makes you think JET2 will be around in the future? Those short breaks in Alicante or Amsterdam are a luxury that before long, many punters will no longer be able to justify. J2 and many other smaller lo-co operations were born from the late 90's flying boom that was enabled by lots of disposable income, continual cost-cutting in the airline industry and availability of easy credit for airlines to expand. None of these conditions exist now. The likes of J2 don't have the kind of extensive and varied route network of EZY to be viable in the present economic climate.

The 1973-4 recession saw the demise of Court Line, which I remember well. One of the UK's biggest holiday airlines, it was also built on a very rapidly growing market, and cheap credit for expansion, together with cheap fuel. Sounds familiar? The 1973-4 recession and big increases in fuel prices soon changed the economics of the operation, and their collapse took many by surprise.

The early 1990's downturn saw the collapse of Air Europe, Dan-Air (taken over by BA for peanuts), Paramount and many others.

My money is on EZY and FlyBe surviving this recession, among the UK-based lo-co's. I'm not convinced any of the others will make it.

[Black Knat]

From what I am reading about the Great Depression there seems to be quite a few similarities with what has happened/is happening now. If this is so, it seems there will be a general 'calm' and apparent improvement in things for a few months before the real stuff hits.
Would someone more knowlegeable on the subject care to comment?

[eikido]

Has anyone discussed what will happen if the oil barrel will be >$200 ?
Wouldn't that kill absolutley all airlines?
Because oil >$200 will happen, maybe not this year nor next, but in the future.

Eikido

[spinnaker]

Black Knat

Interesting post.

Having looked at the comments made by a few historians on the economy, they tend to support your own observations. However, there is an emerging difference. You may have seen me and others harping on about individual countries acting in isolation for the purpose of self interest. Yesterday we saw a coordinated effort by 7 central banks to drop interest rates, and further news coming forth about further and wider involvement in coordinated efforts. This is something that never really happened in the Great Depression, or when it did, it was way too late. What we don't know, is if the current activities are timely to prevent Great Depression MkII. The boat has been missed to prevent a deep recession and the worry now is that the UK has put so much money into the system, all that is left in the armoury is interest rate cuts. I don't think we have a plan 'B'

The current crisis hasn't hit the streets yet, but it will, and it'll be hard.

[spinnaker]

eikido

Oil is not the issue. The reason that it, and other commodities have fallen sharply in price, is because of plummeting demand and confidence.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Some time ago and to hoots of derision I pointed out that oil was a sideshow. On a typical shorthaul low cost airline ticket its £20 - £30 even at $147 a barrel. Less than the car park.

The IR cut yesterday will save the typical £150,000 mortgage holder £25 a month. You think that's fixed the problem and saved the economy? Me neither.

WWW

[ChrisLKKB]

Black Knat
I do suspect we will see a brief but significant up turn in the stock market before we really hit the bottom.

Although I don't think we can draw exact conclusions from past averages and statictics as we haven't had this level of intervention from governments.

[eikido]

And at ~$200 a barrel, with the new CO2 taxes coming soon, that will be > ~£50-60.

Isn't that an issue? A ~£100-120 pricier twoway airline ticket in the future?

Eikido

[Black Knat]

Topslide-
I am interested in your comments about houses as I think that could be the trigger that causes the final collapse of the financial system in its current form within the UK.
My thinking goes along the lines that most people have had to take a mortgage out to buy a home. While they stay in employment they can afford the payments. Assuming massive job losses, many won't be able to pay the mortgage. Given 'normal' conditions they would sell the house and clear the loan (given no negative equity).
In the current situation people who would 'normally' be regarded as good borrowers are unable to obtain a mortgage due to the credit squeeze. Coupled with this the confidence in the housing market has collapsed, hence rapidly falling prices.
The result of the above will mean millions of people will not be able to get rid of their homeloans. However, when they default on the loan and possibly give up and hand the keys back to the bank/lender, the result will be that these lenders end up with thousands or millions of properties that they cannot sell (or at least sell at realistic prices). What happens then?

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

What really gives the government and the banks the heebie geebies is the following scenario.

The trickle of people using the bankruptcy courts starts to swell. Somebody on Trisha or Jeremy Kyle mentions how good it was just to get rid of the negative equity house and the credit card and the consolodated loan. Suddenly the chav minions collectively decide they like the sound of this and the queue around the block for the bankruptcy courts are longer than for the bank run.

The Judge can see that some are genuinely bankrupt but also that a lot have made themselves this way. But if he tries to fine or imprison those in front of him who are attempting fraud he knows that, 1) they have no money, and 2) there are only 982 prison places spare this week in the prison system. The Courts will have no viable sanction against tens of thousands of bankruptcy claims.

The hard pressed but solvent population will soon cotton on to the fact that the reckless, feckless and lazy are exploiting bankruptcy to escape the debt treadmill scot free and they will be enraged. Politically this is difficult and their rage will encourage them to max their credit cards, lose their job, go bust, and spend more time with the kids they barely have time to see.

By this point the banks and creditors are in real trouble as they are havig to write off millions of loans and the assets being seized are worth zip. Property auctions are ALREADY flooded with repossessed properties that are not making their reserve set at half peak valuations. I could show you hundreds of catalogues.

Quite quickly the whole system of capitalism, of banking and debt finance collapses. A whole section of society will have cottoned on that there is no debtors prison and that they can recklessly borrow with impunity. Therefore the banks will have to go back to 1950's style lending practice and this will only support an economy a fraction of the size we are used to and politicians are used to taxing.

The whole edifice of 'the system' is currently swaying because the fundamental debt instrument - house prices - are crumbling. Until those prices stop falling the walls will continue to crack and Mr Darlings expensive plaster work will never set.

In the end its all about the house prices.


WWW

[Lurking123]

WWW, you forgot to mention that the UK already has more than it's fair share of reckless, feckless and lazy that leech from the welfare state. :(

[Grass strip basher]

Believe it or not guys everything you have mentioned above is known and has been known for sometime.... Jo public is just catching up. It is the reason wholesale funding markets has been shut for over a year and there are calls to recapitalise the banks.

Bad debts have yet to really spike or threaten bank levels of bank capital so all of the measures currently being taken are in anticipation of the events you talk about. Most losses to date at banks have been taken on debt securities where mark to market losses force banks to take future losses today. Loan losses can be spread over a greater time period and at least partially be absorbed by ongoing earnings. Total "cash" losses on sub-prime to date have only been 5-10% of the write-downs booked by the banks. I am no a bull on the economy but the banking sector and markets have moved well ahead of your thinking..... the government intervention and bank recapitalisation is a big step forward and will help stop things getting even worse.

Topslide the US & UK government intervention was necessary. Without it the FTSE would be much more than 1000pts lower. Time will tell and I have been uber bearish on this site for months but it is churlish to ignore positive and necessary steps that are being taken. And the £500bn will be collateralised so the bulk will be repaid. It is not "spent" like the money on the Olympics so your comparison is not 100% accurate. The governement will also actually make money on the capital injected into the banks given the coupon they will charge relative to their cost of borrowing. Banks will repay this 10-15 years down the line once they have rebuilt equity organically.

The people I talk to are very very positive about actions taken this week and I am comfortable many of them know what they are talking about.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Gosh, careful there, you're in danger of making me slightly less bearish and its a strange sensation I'm not sure I like. :}


WWW

[Grass strip basher]

WWW I am coming off a very low base ;)... I actually withdrew several thousand pounds of hard currency from a bank 2 weeks ago as "emergency funds" in case the whole system ground to a halt.... I never thought I would ever be doing that but it was looking so so bad at that stage.

There is plenty of misery to come but the chance of "life as we know it" changing is subsiding from where I sit. I can stomach a harsh mind numbingly bad recession... in fact I would bet that is what we will get... but as you know it was looking much much worse than that at one stage.

[ChrisLKKB]

The US appears to be considering stepping into line with the UK and following our example :ooh:

Video: US could copy British-style bank bailout - Times Online (http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_and_americas/article4912334.ece)

This is in danger of almost becoming a coordinated rescue. :eek:

btw, I put as much as I can away in NS and I certificates in case the sky does fall in...I just wish I could put away more...all I need to do now is buy 3 years worth of beans :}

(i'm supprised no one mentioned the rumour that the Bank of America ordered 'We are closed for trading today' signs :oh:....although I think that one will probably appear as 'false' on Snopes

[littco]

The result of the above will mean millions of people will not be able to get rid of their homeloans. However, when they default on the loan and possibly give up and hand the keys back to the bank/lender, the result will be that these lenders end up with thousands or millions of properties that they cannot sell (or at least sell at realistic prices). What happens then?

What happens next is that the Government in 12 months time will have to step in a rescue the housing market!! Buy backs, freeze repossesions or reduce interest rates (0% ???) who knows.. The fall out from the last few weeks in the financial markets wont really be fully felt in the housing market until this time next year, so fingers crossed the governement can at least get some sort of a plan together... What the Government can't allow to happen is to let repossesions carry on picking up pace at the rate they are at the moment. If it does the housing market in 6 months will be in free fall, as who wants to buy a house at market value when you can buy a repossesion at 30% lower?! If it carrys on going this way, it will be a buyers market which can only push prices down further..


On a brighter note, at least the likes of property ladder, how to sell house and homes under the hammer might finally be off our screens for the time being!!:ok:

[MIKECR]

Looks like OPEC are getting a little twitchy about their £100 dollar per barrel 'ideal' :-

AFP: Oil prices drop despite news of emergency OPEC meet (http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5jcPZR1vOpO-M9ZPSRR7lv2D22bPg)

$50 per barrel by year end anyone??

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

FTSE futures off 4% and starting to kiss 4000. The rescue ain't doing what it was supposed to do..

The Dow closed down a massive 678.9 points or 7.33 per cent at 8,579.19. A year ago today, the Dow closed at a record high above 14,000.



Cancel the caterers.

WWW

[heli_port]

Mike who knows where the oil price will end up :confused: All i know is that it is a function of supply and demand and right now because of the slowing economy the world does not need much oil hence this is reflected in the price. When all this mess is sorted out and we start recovering the oil price will increase.

Meanwhile in a galaxy far far away.....

Airline industry faces 'year of hell'
The airline industry is facing a “year of hell” that could be worse than the downturn after the attacks of 9/11, the industry warned.
Mike Ambrose, the director general of the European Regional Airlines (ERA), which represents 79 airlines, said he expected the number of carriers around the world declaring bankruptcy to double to at least 70 this year.
“We are now up to around 35 this year,” Mr Ambrose said. “I see at least that number over the winter.”
Numerous carriers have already been grounded because of a combination of high fuel costs and falling passenger demand. XL, the travel company, was declared bankrupt last month stranding 80,000 passengers and other carriers such as Zoom, Silverjet and Oasis have also been forced to close.
Airline industry faces 'year of hell' - Times Online (http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/transport/article4916436.ece)

http://img2.mysmiley.net/imgs/smile/characters/character0051.gif (http://www.mysmiley.net/free-jumping-smileys.php)

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

I'm suprised you can be so phlegmatic given your situation on a training course with a large FTO. Good on you for not Ostriching.

WWW

[heli_port]

Thank you http://img2.mysmiley.net/imgs/smile/sign/sign0011.gif (http://www.mysmiley.net/free-animated-smileys.php)

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

You are welcome.

You'll make it eventually. You seem equipped.


WWW

[MIKECR]

heli,

Not quite a function of supply and demand....more a function of supply according to how much $ can be screwed out of every last inch of the barrel. The Venezuelan's and the Iranian's have enjoyed the taste of $15O DPB and will do anything to persuade the rest of the Cartel to cling on to high prices. I dont think it will be long before OPEC cuts production again.

[ChrisLKKB]

FTSE futures off 4% and starting to kiss 4000. The rescue ain't doing what it was supposed to do..

Surely it's a bank rescue not a stock market rescue and all the banks haven't bought into it, yet.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

If the banks were rescued the stock market would reflect the fact.


WWW

[spinnaker]

As Chris says, the rescue is more to keep the banking sector functioning, rather than bolster share prices. The picture I now get is that all sectors are suffering and the drop in commodities indicate a sharp fall in demand. pile on the 20 grand the government has committed for every uk taxpayer just to oil the banking sector. Some say we will get this money back, doubtful in my lifetime and that of many others. In the interim up goes my tax.

Tomorrow I shall cheer my self up and send a fax to tesco detailing the new egg prices. If they dont pay, Morrisons will. :E

[ChrisLKKB]

The markets are being driven by fear at them moment so they aren't rational.

I believe that Barclays and another bank prefer not to take the capital injection at the moment and instead prefer to take their chances with the money market, the consensus seems to be that sooner or later they will have to go back to the Government with their cap in hand. (there is talk of a sub £2.00 Barclay share price tomorrow)

Barclays is one of todays largest fallers where as HBOS is one of the largest risers. Until the banks sort themselves out and we find out the full details of the governments plan (ie cancellation of divi's etc) I don't think we'll see the full effect of the rescue plan.

I expect having the US follow our example will help things too.

Anthony Bolton has predicted that financials and consumer cyclicals will lead the (long slooooow) recovery, I believe commodities are due for more of a battering before they recover.

There was almost as much blue as there was red in my virtual potfolio today.

[littco]

Anyone think we are heading towards a period of deflation?

A command economy, state owned banks, assets decreasing in value, bankrupties and money value falling..

[heli_port]

The Venezuelan's and the Iranian's have enjoyed the taste of $15O DPB and will do anything to persuade the rest of the Cartel to cling on to high prices.

Agreed mike however one has to remember that there is a political motive behind this and i believe the iranian & ven regimes would love to see the western world especially the great satan aka USA suffer with high oil prices :yuk:Anyone think we are heading towards a period of deflation?

A command economy, state owned banks, assets decreasing in value, bankrupties and money value falling.

As i prepare for my last week within phase1 grounschool i am glancing at the market data from the asian markets, the FTSE has opened significantly lower and at half 2 when the dow opens it's going to be a 'blood bath'. We are heading towards a period of deflation and i would 'buckle' up to ride some severe turbulence.

Some great buying opportunities at the moment :ok:

http://img2.mysmiley.net/imgs/smile/cool/cool0044.gif (http://www.mysmiley.net/free-msn-smileys.php)

[spinnaker]

Anyone think we are heading towards a period of deflation?

Absolutely. The BBC economics editor stopped just short of using the dreaded 'D' word this morning. I mentioned it myself in a previous post. There are so many indicators creeping in that make it a real and dangerous threat. People are almost celebrating the fall in prices of food, oil, energy and other commodities. What they are not looking at is the reason why those prices are falling. Deflation could start to emerge in the (world) economy within as short a time as 6 months. I would love to be wrong.

[spinnaker]

The ONLY chink of light is that the price of oil continues to fall.

That chink of light could well be a train coming the other way. :sad:

[spinnaker]

Topslide6

"I guess when I refer to the price of oil, it in the hope that there's more chance of some of us pilots still being in a job come 2009."

Perfectly understandable, but alas....I'll not repeat all that's been said before.

Keep your pecker up.

[spinnaker]

Some great buying opportunities at the moment

Thats what they said last week. Careful. :uhoh:

[ChrisLKKB]

I think it would be prudent to wait until the full details of the rescue out are released.

Keep your fingers crossed none of these city traders ever get a job flying an aircraft and are faced with an emergency situation, judging by the panic we are seeing here their solution would be to push every button on the panel and if that didn't work they'd jump out of the window :}

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

FTSE nibbling under 4000 - I want sirens and red lights NOW!

The post Sept 11th and the 2005 slowdown did not result in one quarter of the falls seen in airlines shareprice in the year to date.

Shareprice tells all.


WWW

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

3950 seen. Bunker doors closing...


WWW

[spinnaker]

Over the last 12 months £ has lost 16% against the Euro and almost 25% against the $

So holidays have risen in price. :uhoh:

[redsnail]

It means I have had a pay rise. :ok:

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

But on the same measure your husband has had an equal pay cut... any attempt to inject optimism will be ruthlessly quashed ;)


WWW

[ChrisLKKB]

It's up to the dizzy heights of 4016 and Grodon Broon is doing everything he can....he's confident this will see us through the crisis, i'm reassured :\

[spinnaker]

Grodon Broon is doing everything he can....he's confident this will see us through the crisis

You have to admire the man for retaining his sense of humour. :eek:

I think we are in the capitulation stage, complete market surrender.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

http://img406.imageshack.us/img406/4779/trendlineed6.gif


Green line is VERY long term trend.

Blue line is trend since 1985.

Red line is post 95 trend (ish).



Now, are we going back to 1985 growth rates or long term ones?


This evening (7pm London) the Lehman 'assets' get auctioned. We will find out how much they are worth. The morons who sold insurance on Lehmans bonds will get taken to the cleaners. The main parties are JP Morgan, Goldmans, and Morgan Stanley. They gambled that Lehmans would be bailed by the govt just like Bear Stearns and AIG.

Hundreds and hundreds of Billions.

Panic Mr Mannering, PANIC!


WWW

[spinnaker]

Now, are we going back to 1985 growth rates or long term ones?

Predicting where the bottom is, in a capitulation situation, is risky business. I personally cannot see the fall ending at the blue line, so to speak. The green line? maybe nearer to it than the blue.

The insurance exposure is thought to be $400b in the US. I wonder how many underwriters can meet their commitments. Reminiscent of the Lloyd's names fiasco. Just on a bigger scale.

[Re-Heat]

Darkening skies
FT.com

More airlines have gone bust this year than after 9/11. International passenger growth keeps slowing, according to figures from Iata, the airlines’ association, although it has not plunged to the negative growth seen after the terrorist attacks – yet. The falling oil price, despite the strengthening dollar, provides the only consolation for an industry bracing itself for hard months ahead.

The spillover from the financial crisis is altering the landscape. Just look at British Airways: when its all-share merger with Spain’s Iberia was announced at the end of July, the expectation was that the Spanish would get around 33 per cent of the new entity. That was a reflection of both market capitalisation and traffic and revenue. But the crisis is shifting the balance of power. The premium passenger traffic that BA has been banking on fell 8.6 per cent in September and the forecast for the next few months is gloomy. Add to this BA’s massive pension deficit, which has been widening by the day and affects its valuation. BA’s woes have emboldened the Spanish. Caja Madrid, Iberia’s largest investor, is pushing for a 40 per cent stake in the new entity. A few weeks down the line, it could well demand a better ratio, even a merger of equals. BA’s shares have been falling considerably faster than Iberia’s, pushing the two companies’ market capitalisations towards convergence.

The Spanish airline has taken advantage of the low price to more than double its stake in BA to 7.3 per cent and is poised to increase it further. The positive view is that Iberia is buying BA shares to underline its commitment to the merger. Another is that Iberia might be sharpening its knives to launch a takeover of BA itself. Iata insists that mergers are the way forward in a difficult market. But it seems that as far as BA and Iberia is concerned, take-off is delayed.

[Re-Heat]

Not sure if mentioned elsewhere, but AF-KLM have just abandoned the LHR-LAX route today.

[ChrisLKKB]

We're all screwed :{

HMS Britan has sunk, most of the sailors have jumped ship, only a handfull remain trying to refloat it and the life boat is a rubber dingy. The only comfort is everyone else has sunk too.

[spinnaker]

Not quite Chris, the Lehman credit derivatives auction is on later, $400b worth. More exciting than eBay. :}

[DUXBY]

Buy four new flats, get two free in Birmingham.
Oh dear things are bad.

[JohnRayner]

Now then everyone, just remind me,

Is it 1 sheep or 2 for a barrel of beer?

And how many bags of potatoes will get you a wife?

At least the market in novelty toilet paper sheets won't grow old anytime soon

:}:}:}

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Don't joke. This is getting very very serious. Gold and Silver have plummeted in recent hours against all normal logic. The Dow was 14,000 pre-crunch and is flirting with a number starting with a 7 now. 10% off the FTSE in the blink of an eye this morning. The Lehman auction at less than 10%. Pound in freefall.

Not much makes sense. Its panic. LIBOR ** UP ** !

This could send perfectly good airlines under for reasons totally removed from their trading situation, product or brand.

Really, tins of beans and shotguns doesn't look quite so mental at the moment. Probably a very good time to buy some shares!


WWW

[ChrisLKKB]

Not quite Chris, the Lehman credit derivatives auction is on later, $400b worth. More exciting than eBay. http://static.pprune.org/images/smilies/badteeth.gif

Oh goodie :ugh: This could make or break RBS I guess.

Buy four new flats, get two free in Birmingham.
Oh dear things are bad.

:ooh: they must be if people are likely to consider buying a property in Brum. :E

[Rj111]

The OP gets the jinxing it award.

[ChrisLKKB]

Don't joke. This is getting very very serious. Gold and Silver have plummeted in recent hours against all normal logic
Good, it's those smug twatts now in Gold that ran away and triggered this irrational panic.

Probably a very good time to buy some shares!It would have to into a well capitalised company. The trouble is the higher the share price the more it can tumble :uhoh:

This could send perfectly good airlines under for reasons totally removed from their trading situation, product or brand.Just airlines? That's ok then :ouch:

[Lurking123]

Things are getting rather curious. Many of the fundamentals no longer apply. In a perverse sense, I'm sure some are doing rather nicely out of the volatility right now. Buy shares in a particular company and within a couple of days they may have gone down 20% and then back up 50%.

Gold was a banker but I don't agree with WWW that it has "plummeted" in the last few hours. Bloomberg use the word "tumbled" for a loss of about 5%. However, compared with most commodities and shares, the strength has remained relatively constant. Nevertheless, I get the feeling that the experts don't know what to expect on Monday morning and, as ever,rumour is taking hold, the latest being a global 5-day shut down of the markets. Whether this is true or not, it does nothing to stabilise the situation.

[JohnRayner]

Originally Posted by WWW
Don't joke.

Who's joking? (well alright, I was a bit)

Underpinning all these stories about the banks and markets falling through their own arses is the very real worry that the concept of currency as we understand it is screwed.

When one country's workers have to carry their wages home in wheelbarrows, it's news, but what happens when large chunks of the western world suffer the same fate?

Stocks, shares, and the larger part of the money we spend are all products of human imagination coupled with a fair degree of faith, and that faith is being sorely tested!

[nich-av]

WWW, kudo's to you for predicting the potential recession in Japan.
It looks like it is going the way you predicted it to happen, probably due to recent developments in the U.S. economy.

Oil is down to 79$ in today's trading, which comes as a huge relief to airlines. Airlines in Europe will benefit less as the strong dollar is lowering the effect of lower oil prices but they are still benefiting as oil went down by over 40% compared to the euro/GBP going down by 13%.

The situation is getting out of control in the U.S.: the dollar is bubbling to unrealistic figures as stock owners try to put their hands on hard cash....
The next step?
A huge devaluation of the dollar that may take dollar notes to become toilet paper is very probable as the US government injects cash to the markets and foreign powers and corporations trading in US dollars sell their dollars for other currencies at attractive rates. Airbus is probably a likely seller of USD at this point.
If McCain wins, the dollar will likely crash, OPEC will start doing business using other currencies as oil will top the 200$/barrel very easily and the Amero will be served on a plate together with the NAU.
If Obama wins, the dollar will go down to about 1.70 against the euro pretty soon, oil will go up again, a good opportunity for habits reform.
SUV's will be abandoned for fuel-efficient diesels, electric cars, etc...
The only way for the US to save itself.

Major European airlines will be fine, except for some in the UK, Spain and other vulnerable airlines that have been doing bad before the crisis.
Overall the recovery will be faster in Europe than in the US that is likely to face depression pretty soon.

I wouldn't worry too much about the financial crisis hitting airlines.
Aircraft equities on aircraft younger than 10 years are not decreasing, though older aircraft are seeing decreasing prices, which makes it cheaper for airlines with less financial means to lease aircraft.

Load factors in the US have not been hit too hard (after the capacity cuts of course) but United is looking really bad.
The credit crisis will not affect passenger traffic in Europe, but is likely to hit traffic figures in the U.S. as people tighten the belt.

Interesting times...

[ChrisLKKB]

The US is poised to lose its role as a global financial “superpower” in the wake of the financial crisis, Peer Steinbrück, German finance minister, said on Thursday as he called for a regulatory crackdown on financial markets. “The US will lose its status as the superpower of the world financial system. This world will become multipolar” with the emergence of stronger, better capitalised centres in Asia and Europe, Mr Steinbrück told the German parliament. “The world will never be the same again.” Financial Times (http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/1d6a4f3a-8aee-11dd-b634-0000779fd18c.html)

On the G7 meeting this weekend
"Chancellor Alistair Darling said governments needed to "move on from simply agreeing on a general approach."

"We will have to coordinate internationally, but beyond that there should be room for nation-specific solutions," German Finance Minister Peer Steinbrueck said. "What Great Britain has been doing is one approach, but that does not mean that it should be transferred to any other country."
Retuers

Maybe this is their way of effectively winning WWII....what have they got up their sleeve :hmm:

[v6g]

George Bush says not to panic - which is the clearest indication so far that it's TIME TO PANIC!!!!!

[eikido]

Is it me or has this forum section (Professional Pilot Training)become less active lately?:confused:

Eikido

[Black Knat]

Sure has Eikido, and I guess will continue to do so a we enter the Great Depression of 2009.

[G-BFUN]

I have to say I love how the title of this thread is
"Growing evidence that the up-turn is upon us"
and all the posts are saying how the downturn is happening lol.

Any positives out there!?!?

I would like to give one.
The two big recruiters of low-hour pilots (flyBE and Ryanair) have only closed recruitment for about 1 maybe 2 months so far.
FlyBE says they have only closed while converting ppl onto Dash.

Winter is never a good time for airlines and even with cabin crew (for charter) they most likely get laid off in the winter months.

If we see no recruiting at all next summer, or in the lead 2 it, then I will accept that its all doom and gloom for next year.
Untill then I think we will talk ourselves into a recession.

[SVoa]

Hello all,

Im not really the negative type, and Im actually beginning my PPL in two weeks time. However, I do agree that things are REALLY bad now. We are facing a time, where many airlines will loose money if the banks in which they have their money in go bust!!!! If this doesnt settle down SOON, I think we will see a day where employers will not be able to pay employees! We are *&^%$% to say the least. On the other hand, the world is much different today than it was in 1929... and all companies today are goal oriented in terms of making money. This will bounce back faster than 1929 and when it does we will see a boom again (just my personal opinion). A small example of this I think is what happened after 9/11. The worst days for the airline industry and then it came back stronger than ever.

Just my two cents.
SVoa

[ChrisLKKB]

We are in recession, that is a given. The G7 leaders are meeting this weekend to hopefully talk their way out of a deep recession and a repeat of the Great Depression.

I'm not sure what the best case scenario would be but it wont be the long period of sustained growth we've been experiencing.

I don't really want to contemplate the worse case scenario. This is time of genuine concern for the global economy not just the airline industry, £2.7 trillion has been wiped of global shares already.

This will bounce back faster than 1929 and when it does we will see a boom again (just my personal opinion).

I hope it does and we do SVoa although the lending and borrowing on a massive and incredibly complex scale which fueled this recent boom will undoubtably be paired back and closely regulated so I can't see what will fuel a new boom.

[spinnaker]

In the last 7 days Origami Bank has folded, Sumo Bank has gone belly up & Bonsai Bank announced plans to cut some of its branches.

Yesterday, it was announced that Karaoke Bank is up for sale and will likely go for a song, while today shares in Kamikaze Bank were suspended
after they nose-dived.

Furthermore, 500 staff at Karate Bank got the chop and analysts report that there is something fishy going on at Sushi Bank where it is feared that staff may get a raw deal.

[JohnRayner]

What's the difference between Investment Bankers and London Pigeons?

The Pigeons are still capable of making deposits on new BMW's

:}:}:}

[Alex Whittingham]

Just in case you wondered what the airlines were doing while all this was going on...

Ryanair's September sales soar (http://www.ryanair.com/site/EN/news.php?yr=08&month=oct&story=pax-en-031008)
Flybe Profits (http://www.flybe.com/news/0809/08.htm)
Flybe cuts plans for growth (http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/sep/09/theairlineindustry?gusrc=rssfeed=travel)
Easyjet's passenger figures soar (http://redorbit.com/news/business/1580175/easyjets_passenger_figures_soar/index.html)
BA passenger numbers down (http://article.wn.com/view/2008/10/03/BA_passenger_numbers_down/?section=RegionCaribbean&template=worldnews%2Findex.txt)

[spinnaker]

Whoop-de-do.

HBOS, LTSB, RBS go for the rescue plan. Barclays go it alone. I guess they will get a loan from the new found wealth of HBOS, LTSB, RBS, and protect their divies and bonuses, at the same time preventing the proletariat from becoming board members.

Just need to pay for all this. I know, give Carol Vorderman a call and consolidate the national debt into one easy payment. :}

[spinnaker]

Alex

I wonder how much of those optimistic pax numbers are a result of the XL collapse.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Airlines? Are we talking about airlines now?! :}


WWW

[Alex Whittingham]

Don't know. I know Astreaus handled a lot of the repatriations, who did the rest? Easy and Ryanair must have picked up some pax but, in my experience, most of the low cost flights at the end of the summer were pretty full anyway.

[spinnaker]

Airlines? Are we talking about airlines now?!

Just talking amongst ourselves whilst we wait on your analysis on the nationalisation of three more failed UK banks. One of which is taking over another. How do they do that with no money?

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Beats me! I'm all out of ideas at this point and the crystal ball is on the blink. It would all be quite enjoyable and interesting if I didn't have a terrible foreboding that there will be unpleasant consequences in your and my world from all this.

I know easyJet did pick up some XL repatriations but it wouldn't be a particularly significant number and all the tickets were only £75 anyway so not mega profitable. What made the real difference was the appalling British summer weather again. Holidaying in the UK and camping have been fashionable for the last two years and the focus of a lot of media attention.

However, reality intruded, faced with freezing driving rain in a tent many people changed their plans at the last minute and headed for the med instead. High load factors of short notice passengers have flattered the summer profits greatly.

WWW

[Grass strip basher]

Alex you might have missed it but the events of last week we're an earth shattering reminder that the warm cosy bath the UK consumer has been floating in for the past 5 years isn't full of water.... it is full of sh*t.... and they aren't floating they are drowning.... lets see how that impacts sentiment... car sales etc have slumped in the last 2 weeks. Confidence must have taken a massive knock.

Perhaps offer some insight by telling us how businesses is trending at your organisation? any drop off in sales over the past couple of weeks?? you are at the forefront of training for ATPLs anyway (with arguably the best product on the market).

[Re-Heat]

We have reached the bottom of the finance-related headlines - now for the real impact on the high street and consumer businesses.

I would now expect the economy to rumble along in recession, not doing much that generates positve headlines until the end of 2009 / start of 2010.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Its a minor anecdote but a relative is a car dealer and he just had the worst August+Sept trading since 1991. Sales were in single digits where they were in triple digits last year.

It could be a blip.

WWW

[Alex Whittingham]

No, I hadn't missed the bloodbath GSB, it would be difficult not to! I'm only reporting the actual figures, I'll leave it to someone else to explain them.

Car sales have been horribly down for some months now. I know the BMW dealers are all getting rid of their bigger demonstrators because they're losing £2K a month just sitting in the showroom. As far as training goes it seems to be unaffected as yet. Most of the top notch IR schools are booked for some months into the future. Modular groundschool is busy, particularly on the continent, I don't know about the integrated schools.

[boogie-nicey]

On the note of relatives, one of mine is involved in property development and during our chit chat over the weekend refered to some kind of trade insudtry gazette survey reaging new flat sales. According to him in only 4 new build flats have been sold in Birmingham between the 6 top estate agencies. That's less that 1:1 ratio, now I might have it wrong but he didn't look very impressed by the outlook especially with so many of his tennants asking for a rent reduction at the same time.

Times are hard but due to inner desperation for any ray of light we immediately jump unto the first thread of good news when it appears. There's nothing wrong with that but it does need to be looked upon against the general economic backdrop. The actors may come and go but the stage and it's backdrop will remain throughout. Let's not forget the bigger picture it's still an overall downward trend and in fact needs to be in order to shed the economic/lifestyle excesses of recent years. Gordon allowed it to happen but of course will only take the credit for his involvement in helping to save us all.

[spinnaker]

From Robert Peston this morning about the conditions of the rescue deal:


1) Taxpayers are injecting £37bn of capital into just three banks, RBS, HBOS and Lloyds - with RBS and HBOS taking £31.5bn of that (this is nationalisation Jim, though perhaps not precisely as we know it);

That's a lot for the tax payer to stump up. Government has to borrow and add to already spiralling national debt. Tax will go up.

2) RBS and Lloyds TSB/HBOS have promised to the government that they'll maintain mortgage lending and small-business lending at 2007 levels - which is massively more than they are currently lending (this is hugely significant - given that a shortage of credit is to a large extent behind the economy's deceleration into recession levels);

Wasn't the massive lending that got us into this? ....and what if they don't maintain 2007 levels of lending? RBS LTSB and HBOS, although big in the UK, fairly small players on the global stage. What happens if other world banks don't come to the party, because there is no guarantee they will, and if they don't, I cant see how the rescue will work.


3) Lloyds TSB is paying less to buy HBOS than it originally announced, to reflect the disclosure that HBOS's problems are rather worse than it thought just a couple of weeks ago;

How does one failed bank take on another failed bank?

4) Barclays is raising £10bn from selling new shares and securities to private-sector investors, abandoning its dividend for the second half of this year, and taking other actions;

The only bit that makes sense to me.

---------------------------------------------

The rescue raises as many questions as it does answering existing ones

Stock markets have stabilised this morning, I would not call it a rebound. Look at HBOS, LTSB, RBS shares, all down significantly.

[Alex Whittingham]

The Daily Mash (http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/celebrity/robert-peston-transformed-into-pure-energy-200810081310/) (caution, language used on some of the pages may offend)

[JohnRayner]

ROBERT PESTON TRANSFORMED INTO PURE ENERGY - The Daily Mash (http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/celebrity/robert-peston-transformed-into-pure-energy-200810081310/)

Seriously though. I get your concern about point 2. I don't necessarily think it was the amount of lending that created the problem as such, rather who it was being lent to...

I'd be interested to see how the Barclays plan works. RBS tried to sort themselves out (albeit via different means) and fell flat on their arses.

As for point 1. Won't the Govt. be coining it in repayments from said banks if all goes well (for a given value of "well")? Although I have no doubt that some will see the chance to raise more tax in these troubling times as an opportunity not be sniffed at.

For my own part, I see this as an attempt to slow the fall, so the crash at the end isn't too great. i.e. salvageable bits as opposed to all out catastrophe.

And as ever, I am slightly dismayed at the extent to which a basically abstract idea can, when questioned, seriously affect things like the food on my plate and the roof over my head.

(btw, I'm learning LOTS about stuff I'd never thought I'd learn about, on this site. Thanks guys!:ok:)

[JohnRayner]

SNAP! D'oh, you beat me... And by how much?

[Alex Whittingham]

14 minutes

[JohnRayner]

(hahahahahahahahahahah) :}:}

[spinnaker]

And as ever, I am slightly dismayed at the extent to which a basically abstract idea can, when questioned, seriously affect things like the food on my plate and the roof over my head.

The existence of a £5 note in your wallet is based upon the confidence of someone else and the fact that somebody borrowed money. Sobering thought.

(btw, I'm learning LOTS about stuff I'd never thought I'd learn about, on this site. Thanks guys!)

I think we all are. ;)

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Its fine to stabilise the banks. Letting them go down en masse caused the Great Depression and that killed people so is well worth avoiding. I can get past the moral outrage of then banks having caused this because:

a) Grown ups borrowed the money without a gun to their head,

b) The money wasn't real when it was created and isn't real when its being destroyed now.


Excessive household debt suddenly started defaulting and caused a crisis for the banks issuing that debt. The banks have managed to pass on that debt to the Government. They in turn will pass it on to the taxpayers over time. In the end everyone who pays tax will pay for the excessive spending and lifestyle indulged in by their fellow citizens.

The modest living hard working will suffer to pay for the feckless the flash and the lazy. That is unfortunate and the whole political game is now all about ensuring there is no revolt about it. There probably won't be because 98% of people are pig ignorant about monetarism and economics because they've never been taught any and always had it portrayed to them as boring and complicated.

This is deliberate. The hamsters have to be kept on their debt wheels and economic ignorance is the easiest way of achieving this.

I think the 1990 - 1992 recessionary period is our best guide to what to expect in 2009/10. Who the AirEurope and DanAir will be this time is anyones guess..

WWW


PS House prices will hit bottom in April 2010 at £127,000 for the average house - put a note in your diary ;)

[eikido]

Training unaffected??:bored: How are people thinking?
Oh dear this cannot end well for many students :uhoh:.

Eikido

[Re-Heat]

Spinnaker - the value of the £5 is not simply credit, but backed by taxpayers or other institutions typically. See the below.

Fiat currency - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fiat_currency)

[spinnaker]

This is deliberate. The hamsters have to be kept on their debt wheels and economic ignorance is the easiest way of achieving this.

Have a look at this video Zeitgeist (http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=7065205277695921912). It does not necessarily represent my own political views or religious beliefs and I do not suggest its own solutions are the correct remedy. What it does do, and something I do subscribe to, is, that it is thought provoking. Essentially, it challenges the core of our society, MONEY.

[spinnaker]

Re-Heat

Government allows bank credit to be paid out in currency, therefore fiat money is created from credit.

[ChrisLKKB]

Where are all the big investors that bailed out early on in the crisis hoovering up all these cheap shares?

A complete melt down of the financial system has been averted for now at least and hopefully for my lifetime but the market reaction has been relatively luke warm considering the recent steep drops.

The bail out was necessary and has stopped things getting any worse and if it doesn't get in the bo:mad:llocks again the financial system may repair itself (I hope), eventually. But I can't help thinking we are still in for tough times ahead.

The Great Depression wasn't a sudden total collapse, it started with a stock market crash in Oct 1929 which recovered to 70% of its original value 6 months later but the next 10 years were tough the world over. (source wikipedea).

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Today was a dead cat bounce. And a modest one at that.

You loose 1,000 points one week and make 200 back the following Monday after £50bn of rescue and I end up more worried than I was last week. I call 3,500 for the FTSE within 6 months. All eyes now on the unemployment numbers after Christmas.

WWW

[Lurking123]

But it is interesting to see who the 'winners' are. For example, TUI did the best today. OK, looking back 12 months the haven't exactly starred but...........

WWW, I hope you have a robust pension scheme, I do.:ok:

[ChrisLKKB]

Today was a dead cat bounce. And a modest one at that.

You loose 1,000 points one week and make 200 back the following Monday after £50bn of rescue and I end up more worried than I was last week. I call 3,500 for the FTSE within 6 months. All eyes now on the unemployment numbers after Christmas.

WWW

You're more optimistic than some opinions i've read.



Is it me or does the 'return lending to 2007 levels' caveat sound like they want to have their cake and eat it ?

WWW, I hope you have a robust pension scheme, I do.http://static.pprune.org/images/smilies/thumbs.gif

Is there such a thing nowadays ? I'd have thought the safest people are those who are about to retire in the next few years who have their money in very low risk investments.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

The Council of Mortgage Lenders took about 5 minutes to slap down the idea of returning to 2007 lending rates in a press release. Perhaps it was a coincidence that the Nationwide announced the end of all its 90% LTV products.

As of tomorrow you'll need a 15% deposit to become a Nationwide customer - clearly they don't fancy going back to 2007 lending practice and they are the nations biggest building society by a long long chalk.


As I said - bottom is April 2010 at £127k


WWW

[Lurking123]

Is there such a thing nowadays ?

Yep, those who are already receiving payments from a final salary scheme.

[spinnaker]

As I said - bottom is April 2010 at £127k

That is less than the build cost without accounting for land value. I presume your talking about an average home price and not a wendy house.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Average house price in England and Wales I was talking about. Building land is being sold at firesale prices by most developers. Brickies day rates half halved since Spring, roofers are desperate etc etc. Regardless of which that price is only winding back to April 2002 prices.


A five year retrenchment last time and this time looks like this:



July '84 £75,610 (60 months) July '89 £117,579 = of peak 64.3%

April '02 £127,758 (63 months) July '07 £193,153 = of peak 66.1%



The 3 months difference is just where I happen to have the data to hand. those are inflation adjusted figures from Nationwide PLc. I actually expect this crash to be worse as the leverage is higher, the price/income ratio higher and the BTL phenomena a new and destablising element.

The recession won't end until some time after houses have stopped dropping in cost.


WWW

[ChrisLKKB]

As of tomorrow you'll need a 15% deposit to become a Nationwide customer

Maybe we will get back to a sensible state of affairs sooner than I thought :cool:

[eikido]

Does airlines buy fuel on daily basis or contract basis (say 5 years)?

Eikido

[Grass strip basher]

Contract and many also choose to hedge so will have locked in fuel costs at prices higher than today.

[eikido]

This means we haven't really felt the $147 barrel effect yet?

Eikido

[littco]

"British House Prices Down By 40%"

As reported by sky. So ok it's a little but of hysteria here as they seem to have found THE 3 house's in the uk that have fallen by between 40-53% but this is the reality for the coming months/years.

I think these are exceptions, no doubt investors cutting their losses and bailing out with what ever they can find, but if these house/flat's aren't being sold then what are the chances of the market value house's?!

These figures are the true fall of the property market, but the real world figures will take 18-24 months to show this across the whole housing market..

How long before the Government step in to help?? I'd say 6 months..

[chickentikkamasala]

How long before the Government step in to help?? I'd say 6 months..


I would say a touch longer than this. The help will come just in time for the next election.

[no sponsor]

The house I sold last summer is now presently on the market for 15% less than what they paid for it. It's been up for sale for around 5 months. I'd like to claim I saw the iceberg ahead and that's why I sold-up, but I can't. It was sheer good fortune.

50% seems over the odds. Certainly the houses I'm currently looking at are not more than 10% less, but the words 'guide price' is used quite a bit these days. I get the impression many are in denial.

I'm just hoping they fall 50%, so I can get a really good deal. Steer clear of flats on big estates, or in the centre of a city is my advice.

[spinnaker]

I get the impression many are in denial.

There's a lot of it around. I see a lot of properties that have been on the market for over 12 months now. I have a neighbour that have their property on the market at.......wait for it..............10% higher than what they paid at the peak of the boom! They feel their agent is wonderful for giving them such a splendid valuation. They are curious as to why they haven't had any lookers though. I wonder why.

:rolleyes:

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

With inflation at 5% and prices falling by 13% in nominal anounts on official data the real value reduction is -18% annually. Another year and a bit and you've got 50% falls in real terms.

WWW

[Flying Squid]

WWW this thread was intended to focus on the positive's (abeit the few of them that are around of late) rather than the negative's (of which there seem to be plenty) so can we get back to that rather than you promoting more doom and gloom. I don't ment that in a pissy way before you jump down my throat but I think you'll agree that we've all had enough bad news in recents weeks/months every time we open the newspaper or switch on the news and to be fair there is a dedicated 'Doom and Gloom' thread about the down turn being upon us. So any chance anyone has seen the rise in the majority of the major stock markets today as a result of the worlds governments finally pulling their finger out of their arse??? A very small step forwards which could very well be too late to halt a recession but its the only forward step we've seen in months so let's at least be a bit more cheerful this evening!

(I now await the verbal onslaught from WWW)

:ok:

[clear prop!!!]

Crude oil now $79,.. back where it was a year ago, not quite the $200 predicted by our resident experts!!

Before the onslaught of verbal crap about oil prices meaning nothing,… it’s what every failed airline has blamed for their problems, and ,it’s got to be a sign that things are getting just a bit better.

Interest rates predicted to fall by another 1/2 %

Let's acknowledge at least some positive signs! :)

[ChrisLKKB]

but I think you'll agree that we've all had enough bad news in recents weeks/months every time we open the newspaper or switch on the news and to be fair there is a dedicated 'Doom and Gloom' thread about the down turn being upon us.the only good news i've seen for wannabees is that Ryanair and Easy Jests pax numbers were up, apparently at BAs expense (their economy pax numbers are down).
Personally I think it bodes well for wannabees that Easy and FR are potentially building customer loyalty before there is a significant down turn across the board.

Lowering interest rates may help some households from getting into arrears and it may help to cushion the house price crash but it's not going to prevent a resession.

Some economists and financial experts are suggesting we may have seen the bottom of the market, others believe we are in for one more final crash before the bear market is over and we can start to fully recover.

Patience is the key imo and you can use the time by self studying.

[GasHog]

Hi folks,

Just drifted into this thread by accident but makes very interesting reading indeed and I hope you wont mind me throwing my cap into the ring.

Firstly, it's extremely difficult for anyone to predict the future of any market, aviation included. Remember earleir in the year the most prominent analysts in the land were predicting "oil armageddon" with oil busting $200 a barrel. Well, it didn't happen and now there's a lot of chin rubbing and beard stroking going on and a flurry of revisions of previous forecasts to somewhere below $100 a unit. They get gazillions a year and the best they can do is be wildly out - heaven preserve us from these idiots and their predictions.

Similarly, be aware of the barrack room analysts on this forum, with predictions of doom and gloom and procrastinations of "I saw this coming" "yeeeap, told you so" blah 5% blah 15% yada yada.
Fact - history is a great teller of stories. Just look back at any market and you'll see that a cycle emerges. It's just the law of the jungle so to speak. Things will get better again, they always do and for those of you embarking on your journeys, keep your chins up and try to avoid getting drawn into the negativity. If I were in your position, I would view my training time as time away from the turmoil. Enjoy the experience and remember that every day passing is a move to better times. Don't create problems that don't exist - deal with them as they arise. If there aren't many jobs around at present but you're in the process of training toward your ticket, then you don't yet have a problem. What if? What if? Well, if me Aunty had boll**ks then she'd be me uncle.

Stay positive and focused, help each other. Put the word out when you hear someone's hiring or ordering airframes. Introduce positivity to the game. Don't be dragged down by the doom merchants and the media - remember, good news isn't good press and in many respects we get the media we deserve.
I'm left seat now for a prominent player in the loco market and having a ball but I have been where you are and if I had believed half the sh*t I heard as a fledgling, I wouldn't have got out of bed in the morning.

Pick your target, go for it and dont let anyone tell you otherwise. I hope to work with some of you soon and remember that 95.451% of all statistics are boll**k:s

Gashog

Group hug anyone?
:=

[Desert Budgie]

For most people who have to do things the hard way, living the dream by working hard for years, saving every penny and getting a loan to fly, times are obviously tough. As banks go back to the old days, where loans are negotiated over lengthy meetings with the bank manager and credit ratings are meticulously looked over with a fine tooth comb rather than through a text message or a flyer in the mail, the old flying loans are going to be hard to come by.

Airlines are obviously scaling down their employment. For my own amusement, I had a look through the 'majorish' airlines in the UK and found most application procedures closed until further notice, where you could not apply, even if you wanted to as the website was closed. Again a sign that we are in the toilet of the downturn.

However, if you do have the money, now is the time to start your training. If you qualify for your fATPL during the downturn, once all of the furloughed pilots are hired, you will be top of the list. Don't put off your training if you have the money just because there are no jobs at the present, be ready to be the first to jump on the band wagon when it recovers. I myself was one of those pilots who trained post 9/11. As many wannabe pilots decided to postpone their training, I chose to continue to follow the dream and am now a captain of a small but reputable little airliner and loving every minute of it.

I have a meeting with some A-Level students on the 21st on what it's like to be an airline pilot. One of the first things I am going to tell them is go to university first. Have a back up plan as the industry is so volitile you don't know what it might throw at you. However, if you have the money, get that training under your belt to be the first to take advantage of the opportunities when they arise.

I was flying with a first officer recently who is more than ready to take the reigns in the left seat. I asked him why he had not gone and got his ATPL already. He told me that months back he had been speaking to another captain and he had told him that there were people ahead of him in seniority and there was no rush. So instead of spending his hard earned cash on a valuble ATPL, he spent his money on a big screen TV and a holiday. As lovely as those things are, he is only now going to get his ATPL, and in three months when it arrives in the post, he won't be able to upgrade as due to the downturn in our industry, all the skippers positions will be filled. If he had chosen to do it when he had the money, regardless of his seniority, he would be captain already.

As harsh as it sounds, people thrive on others misfortune. If you have the money, now is the time to buy houses. If you have the money, now is the time to buy shares. If you have the money, now is the time to learn to fly, because we will once again become a wanted commodity, and you want to be top of the list.

Like I said, just my few cents

Cheers

DB :ok:

[heli_port]

*group hug* http://www.mysmiley.net/imgs/smile/fighting/fighting0028.gif

*make love* http://img2.mysmiley.net/imgs/smile/adult/thedeed.gif (http://www.mysmiley.net/free-rolleye-smileys.php)

Housing slump could be over next year, MPs hear

A drop in home loan rates by a further half point could turn the housing market around by next year, an economist saysHousing slump could be over next year, MPs hear (http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/money/property_and_mortgages/article4944730.ece)

Taxpayers' £37billion 'might not be enough' to stabilise banking system


The public money being injected into Britain's three weakest banks may not be enough to stabilise the banking system

Taxpayers' £37billion 'might not be enough' to stabilise banking system - Times Online (http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/banking_and_finance/article4945041.ece)

http://www.mysmiley.net/imgs/smile/sign/sign0016.gif (http://www.mysmiley.net/freesmiley.php?smiley=sign/sign0017.gif)

[99jolegg]

Cost of living has reached peak (http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/65999/Cost-of-living-has-reached-peak-)

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

UK unemployment jumps most in 17 years as downturn bites - Telegraph (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/3202393/UK-unemployment-jumps-most-in-17-years--as-downturn-bites.html)

The phoney recession is over. Here comes the real thing.


Flying Squid, this thread is a continuation of a thread by the same title that covered Downturn rather than Upturn. That thread got so long that we moved onto this thread which covers the same topic - wide economic impact on airline Wannabeism.

GasHog, thanks for the searing insight into If your Auntie has testicles and but quite a few people did take note of the barrack room economists on this forum and are very grateful now that they did so. NO wannabe would chose to be completing their commercial training in the last 6 months or the next 18. That much we know from the situation apparent today. I suspect 36 months will eventually prove to be a more fortunate number.


WWW

[spinnaker]

With inflation at 5% and prices falling by 13% in nominal anounts on official data the real value reduction is -18% annually. Another year and a bit and you've got 50% falls in real terms.

Another convert to my deflation theory. :eek:

Deflation = drop in prices = wage cuts = civil unrest.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

They'll go for hyper inflation over debt deflation. Widespread debt deflation would expose the fact that the interest can never be repaid on the loans in the system because the only money in the system is the loaned money. The money to repay the interest never existed and never will. That's all a bit heavy on the monetarism so lets look at something more tangible.

On Friday the world banking system stared into the abyss. Stock markets plunged. Over the weekend Gordon photocopied the 1992 Swedish governments homework on How To Solve A Banking Crisis. On Monday the Stock Market soared and the BBC hailed the world was Saved (by Gordon). The FTSE climbed from the 3900's all the way up to the 4500's at heart quickening speed.

Its now Wednesday night. After a day of hard falls the overnight FTSE futures are now back below 3900.

2 trillion billion squillion of bailout plan and three days later the market is back to panic Friday.

Todays record matching unemployment figures measures three months that run up to just BEFORE Lehman Brothers went down. How d'ya think things have gone since then on the old redundancy front?


Tin hats back on chaps.


WWW :ooh:





ps At the close, the Dow Jones industrial average was down about 733.08 points, or 7.8 percent


pps I'm off with Lady Welshman to Paris for a few days so you'll just have to get by without me until Sunday night - stay safe, and don't have nightmares..

[ChrisLKKB]

but the banks will still be there to keep the wheels turning, they'll also be there to help the recovery on it's way when it eventually arrives...and it will...eventually. We're in a better position now than we were last week.

And I am also getting a bit tired of hearing how Grodon is getting all the credit for a solution the Schweeeds came up with over a decade ago.

ps WWW, make sure you don't book your flights with a 'flaky' airline. (what ever that may be).

[JohnRayner]

It's all in hand. Here's the good word from inside the system..

BAIL OUTS? I **** 'EM - The Daily Mash (http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/opinion/columnists/bail-outs?-i-****-%27em-200810151327/)

:{
(because I can't find the smiley for laugh until I cried. Nor the one for laugh until I wee'd a bit)

[v6g]

Crude oil now $79,.. back where it was a year ago, not quite the $200 predicted by our resident experts!!

Before the onslaught of verbal crap about oil prices meaning nothing,… it’s what every failed airline has blamed for their problems, and ,it’s got to be a sign that things are getting just a bit better.

Interest rates predicted to fall by another 1/2 %

Let's acknowledge at least some positive signs!

- except that the market continues to be in contango. Care to explain why?

[thirtysomething]

The Super Rally on Monday was the first wave of short covering. We go to hell within week or so and that may well be the bottom ( SPX 700ish , we touch down there briefly and then there is a mega short covering rally again big percentages but small numbers now ). The reason the market is continuing to sell off is huge amount of uncertainty as to how bad it will get , they are trying to look forward 6 to 12 months , so the pain we see now wont turn up for a while yet. Oil is falling as the demand for it is falling as people drive and fly less but I would say it doesnt go down by much more as its getting closer to the cost.

So glad i knocked my training on the head, hope those in training or going in do well. As a United Pilot said to me the other night you would have to have a real hard on for flying to train now as when you get a job you will be paid less and less. He tells me that management in his outfit are " renegotiating " their pay back to 1992 levels..

[heli_port]

Well what a weeks it's been so far!

The phoney recession is over. Here comes the real thing.

Sadly i must agree :ooh:

Markets slump as the world prepares for long recession (http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article4951938.ece)

http://www.mysmiley.net/imgs/smile/scared/scared0016.gif (http://www.mysmiley.net/freesmiley.php?smiley=scared/scared0016.gif)

[Bruce Wayne]

JohnRaynerDon't Worry!
It's all in hand. Here's the good word from inside the system..

BAIL OUTS? I **** 'EM - The Daily Mash (http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/opinion/columnists/bail-outs?-i-****-%27em-200810151327/)

http://static.pprune.org/images/smilies/boohoo.gif
(because I can't find the smiley for laugh until I cried. Nor the one for laugh until I wee'd a bit)

John, thanks for the link.. but you owe me a keyboard now. mine's covered in tea !

if i may quote the governator "i havn't laughed so much since my colostomy bag burst in the local swimming pool"

[spinnaker]

I see the Choclit sector is taking a pounding again CADBURY ADR (CBRY.L) -99% (http://uk.betastreaming.finance.yahoo.com/q?s=CBRY.L)

Either that or yahoo need to fix the ticker :}

[Day_Dreamer]

I have read some of the statements here and support the :-
a.) Get a degree but only in a subject which will get you into work later.
b.) Start Training so as to finish in late 2010 when the market will have
improved.
c.) If seeking high levels of Finance have a strong business plan including
a workable backup plan so you can repay the loan if you don't fly.
d.) Don't put off your dream if you can satisfy the above.

WWW you are a doom and gloom merchant, and most here look at your number of posts and will think you know what your talking about, but you are so negative you cant see the wood for the trees.
Out of all this economic mess the Phoenix will arise and we shall see the market upturn soon.

Those failures in the industry whilst very traumatic for the employees, were mostly in companies sailing very close to financial wind.
Banking support was not there when needed, as we have seen that their ethos was "Profit and Bonuses over Peoples Lives" (The I am alright Jack syndrome). How many could have survived if they had obtained support for just a couple more months.

On the upturn front I have a friend starting a jet course next week (Modular and not self funded) and others getting sim rides for entry into a holding pool or two.
I also heard that CTC might just have a couple of pilots leaving their hold pool soon.

In a time of hardship, we should be offering support and constructive advice to wannabees, but leave out the negativity, we know its there and they know its there, but don't have to be reminded every day by the DOOM & GLOOM Merchants.

[spinnaker]

Out of all this economic mess the Phoenix will arise and we shall see the market upturn soon.

Soon is going to be a few years away. The Phoenix maybe not what every one is expecting. Sure, jobs will return, but I don't see boom times for ten years or longer. By the time we are through the worst, in a couple of years, we will probably have had a change of government and certainly a different view on how wealth is generated.

Some of the advice on this thread is spot on and I would think a few wannabies have saved themselves from disaster.

"On the upturn front I have a friend starting a jet course next week (Modular and not self funded) and others getting sim rides for entry into a holding pool or two."

Holding pool means nothing. If it makes anyone feel better, I'll start a holding pool of my own. No jobs mind, just a holding pool.

"In a time of hardship, we should be offering support and constructive advice to wannabees, but leave out the negativity, we know its there and they know its there, but don't have to be reminded every day by the DOOM & GLOOM Merchants."

The only good advice is stay out of the business for now and be patient. That is not Doom and Gloom, its good sound advice, from people who have experienced downturns and unemployment. We never had the benefit of the internet or pprune. If we did, we wouldn't have made so many career mistakes.

[ChrisLKKB]

we know its there and they know its there, but don't have to be reminded every day by the DOOM & GLOOM Merchants.It appears some do if they are thinking about starting integrated courses now. WWWs predictions are broadly the same as many other economists and financial experts who all say it's going to get worse before it gets better.....and most do say it will get better so it's not all doom and gloom.

This thread may have become a commentary of what is happening to the economy but that's because it's all part of the path to recovery and better times, or a reminder to those who are thinking about getting themselves up to their eyeballs in debt that we are far from being out of the woods, yet.

As has been mention or implied previously, the stock market now is pricing itself for what will happen in the future (or what the majority of investors think will happen in the future) so a slump in the stock market now is an pretty accurate prediction for the economy in the future. Happily this works on the way up too :cool:

Hopefully the doom and gloom mongers will be posting the positive signs too but of course it's a lot easier to advise someone when not to spend 70k than it is to tell them when to spend it...that takes real balls!

[heli_port]

I have read some of the statements here and support the :-
a.) Get a degree but only in a subject which will get you into work later.

I support the above statement however one must remember that degrees these days are funded by student loans and this combined with a hefty training bill (integrated or modular) is too much for me personally to contemplate. Did a degree work for me? yup it got me the money i needed to attend OAA but it meant 8.5 years of doing something else.

http://www.mysmiley.net/imgs/smile/tongue/tongue0013.gif (http://www.mysmiley.net/freesmiley.php?smiley=tongue/tongue0013.gif)

[Re-Heat]

The doom and gloom merchants remind the airheads where reality actually lies.

The reason the market is dire is that there is no trust. As there are so many refinancings due on a wide range of companies in the coming year or two, there are a huge range of businesses that will be hit by higher funding costs and lower revenues. It is definitely not going to get better soon, and anyone who thinks it is kids nobody but themselves.

Those who are getting sim rides and type ratings at the moment are the lucky few, but they certainly do not prove that there is a broad market there for the majority of jobseekers in aviation.

I notice today that Jet Airways of India is firing 1,900 of their 13,000 workforce.


Oil
- except that the market continues to be in contango. Care to explain why?
Technically, a gently falling market remains in contango rather than backwardation due to technical factors in the manner in which oil futures are constructed.

[spinnaker]

I support the above statement however one must remember that degrees these days are funded by student loans and this combined with a hefty training bill (integrated or modular) is too much for me personally to contemplate. Did a degree work for me? yup it got me the money i needed to attend OAA but it meant 8.5 years of doing something else.

Some time ago I read a report about aviation, being a turn off for graduates as they could get a better return for their education in other industries. I don't see a degree as the 'be all and end all'. If a youngster can afford a degree, fine go ahead. But if you don't have a degree, I do not see that as a blocker. From my own perspective, I've seen a lot of bright duffers and a lot of keen, not so well qualified wannabies who are well up to the job. My point is, its all about the individual and how they come accross and their ability to learn, think, and make a positive contribution to an employer. I would never write off anyone because they have no degree. As salaries fall in value I can see even more graduates turning away from aviation. In a way that is good news for the Wannabie. Hang in there, it will happen but not soon.

[littco]

If anyone is looking for a glimmer of hope, I strongly think in 3-4 years time airlines are going to be short of crew and will have to seriously look to bring back some kind of sponsorship or bond to entice people back to train.

You only have to read all 49 pages of this thread to realise that in the coming years very few people are going to be able to afford to train, it's fact. Hsbc loans canx, house prices falling, shares falling, economys collapsing will all mean wannabes will not have the funding to train. In 2-3years time when the current batch of Wannabes have all finished they will slowly be picked up by airlines as those pilots who now retire at 65 will all leave, FO's who have been stuck in the right seat because there have been no promotions will upgrade and then this will lead to a huge void in the fresh FATPL market. If Airlines aren't carful they could be faced with airplanes and no one to fly them, all because no one could afford to train as they used to be able to.

I may be way off the mark here, but I do see this as a real possibilty. I have read this post with interest from the start and can not see how new wannabes are seriously going to be able to afford to train in the future..I may be missing something but without working full time and training in your free time who is going to have £60k spare?! I think the likes of OAA, Cabair and FTE are all starting to worry. Modular is definately going to benefit, as those that can afford to train will look at cheaper ways, but in the end as numbers fall at the big intergrated schools big airlines are going to have to look at other ways to get crews.

My advice is wait 2-3 years before to start your training ( ohh which happens to be the time it takes to do a degree..funny that ) and it wouldn't suprise me then if you have a good degree and some life experience you'll get an airline to sponsor you or at least offer a bond to train..

Open to comments!!

[JB007]

littco

You could be right! My personal thoughts are, about the UK anyway, that it won't be as good as you think as the industry is shrinking. More mergers will take place leaving you with very few options of choice of employers...maybe only open to very experienced or sponsorship MPL only...

[spinnaker]

If anyone is looking for a glimmer of hope, I strongly think in 3-4 years time airline are going to be short of crew and will have to seriously look to bring back some kind of sponsorship or bond to entice people back to train.

You only have to read all 49 pages of this thread to realise that in the coming years very few people are going to be able to afford to train, it's fact. Hsbc loans canx, house prices falling, shares falling, economys collapsing will all mean wannabes will not have the funding to train. In 2-3years time when the current batch of Wannabes have all finished they will slowly be picked up by airlines as those pilots who now retire at 65 will all leave, FO's who have been stuck in the right seat because there have been no promotions will upgrade and then this will lead to a huge void in the fresh FATPL market. If Airlines aren't carful they could be faced with airplanes and no one to fly them, all because no one could afford to train as they used to be able to.

I may be way off the mark here, but I do see this as a real possibilty. I have read this post with interest from the start and can not see how new wannabes are seriously going to be able to afford to train in the future..I may be missing something but without working full time and training in your free time who is going to have £60k spare?! I think the likes of OAA, Cabair and FTE are all starting to worry. Modular is definately going to benefit, as those that can afford to train will look at cheaper ways, but in the end as numbers fall at the big intergrated schools big airlines are going to have to look at other ways to get crews.

My advice is wait 2-3 years before to start your training ( ohh which happens to be the time it takes to do a degree..funny that ) and it wouldn't suprise me then if you have a good degree and some life experience you'll get an airline to sponsor you or at least offer a bond to train..

Open to comments!!

3-4 years? I feel as good a guess as anyone can give right now. Sponsorship? Again possible. Its all down to supply and demand, something airlines are good at getting very wrong. With increasing training costs and salaries dropping in value, I certainly think airlines must invest in type ratings at the very least. To me it is a pointless task in self sponsoring for a type, when the first thing an employer has to do, is train all over again for the same type. I've had it with the arguments that it shows ability to handle a large jet. Cobblers, the ATPL and sim assessments do that, and if a recruiter and flight training managers can't identify suitable entrants from that, they its they who should not be in the job. I know, Ive done it. Sorry I was starting to rant, all calm now and the pills are starting to kick in. :) But yes, I do see some form of sponsorships eventually. Would it be for the full ATPL? For some. BA, Virgin? most likely. Easyjet? A long shot. Ryanair? Shoot MOL and you might be talking. A big big if.

The only thing I would add, for the Wannabie. Don't forget that a PPL is a perfectly valid and valuable Pilot License and the flying that a PPL does is also valid and valuable. Use that to your advantage.

Otherwise, I think you have it pretty well buttoned up.

[heli_port]

My advice is wait 2-3 years before to start your training ( ohh which happens to be the time it takes to do a degree..funny that ) and it wouldn't suprise me then if you have a good degree and some life experience you'll get an airline to sponsor you or at least offer a bond to train..

Open to comments!!Agreed but for the older crowd thats approaching 30 it's a much tougher decision. As we come out of this mess the oil price will start to spike again due to demand! I don't think we will get back to the situation pre northern rock for allot longer, if we ever do. Do i think we'll see sponsorships again? No i think it will be a mentored type arragement afterall why should the airline take the risk when someone else can :ooh:

MPL....mmm

http://www.mysmiley.net/imgs/smile/animals/animal0048.gif (http://www.mysmiley.net/freesmiley.php?smiley=animals/animal0048.gif)

[Lurking123]

Agreed but for the older crowd thats approaching 30 it's a much tougher decision.

hahahahaha, older approaching 30? I haven't laughed so much in a long time. :eek::eek::eek:

[ChrisLKKB]

Bloody nippers :rolleyes:

[Grass strip basher]

There is always the chance that the extent of household de-leveraging that is required (i.e. paying down of debt) could mean this is a more prolonged downturn... 10-15 years of boom.... 5-10 years of bust (great depression I believe spanned the best part of 5 years if not more).

This 3-4 years is just one scenario and may well be optimistic. This does not look or feel like a 1990s type recession as the level of debt involved is just so much higher. My bet would be 5yrs till wanabees get a look in. 3-4yrs would be a good result.... 1-3 years is fantasy.

"mainstreet" is still just waking up to how nasty this could be. I heard that on the sidelines of the IMF conference last week there were whispers of a possible 4% contraction in the US next year..... :eek:

[chickentikkamasala]

This does not look or feel like a 1990s type recession as the level of debt involved is just so much higher.


Yes I agree. Why? because the contributary factors of past booms only led to small booms and hence small busts when the conditions for boom disappeared. For example the tech share mini-boom and the sale of shares from building societies turning into banks in the early 90's. In hindsight we should have seen these as mini indicators of what is wrong with the whole monetary system where credit is offered based on fictional capital.

I would say that the credit bubble has been growing since the conservatives took power in 1979 and it has only just burst now. We have witnessed mini-booms and mini-busts since that time. The bubble has in effect been inflating and then slightly deflating then inflating since 1979.

The bubble has fully burst now. Part of the trouble in this country started when the conservatives advocated that everyone had the right to own their own home. Yes of course this is true but not at any cost. Since then this has led to a false economy in this country led by debt and conversely manufacturing was allowed to ebb away which is the true source of wealth. Any long term healthy economy will only thrive on manufacturing and technical know how, that has been removed from this country which has been left with heresay and short term wealth created from the service industry.

The speech by David Cameron today spells it all out, however the conservatives cannot be absolved from their part in all this when they were in power.
A look at the Zeitgest film provided by spinnaker provides a fascinating insight in what is wrong with the global economy. It's quite a long film and while (as with spinnaker) I don't necessarily advocate all of the solutions to the problem from a practical sense the film I believe proves that this bubble which has now burst had been building since the late 70's.

The past recessions were born out of small contributary factors which quickly ebbed away providing their problems and quickly making way for recovery. This recession is born out of a far more serious matter which is the whole fundamental of credit, interest and the whole philosophy behind the monetary system. Hence the bust period will I believe be far longer than that of the past,especially when you factor in the rising economies demand for more raw materials, the increasing independence to volatile countries for energy and the stark need to for greener ways to produce energy.

A look a zeitgiest is very enlightening. Spinnaker your advise to watch this film has been the most useful contribution to this strand.
I think any wannabe would do well to watch this as this provides a good indicator as to the severity of the problem.

[heli_port]

I would say that the credit bubble has been growing since the conservatives took power in 1979 and it has only just burst now.

As long as you don't over inflate the bubble and keep an eye on it's pressure to ensure it doesn't burst normally it's ok, however Gordon Brown in his infinite wisdom took powers away from the BoE and gave them to the FSA which was a critical mistake thus ensuring the pressure was not being monitored and the bubble burst.

I have met many people from the FSA when i was working in a top 4 bank and let me tell you they couldn't punch themselves out of a paper bag. All we can do know is apply bandages to the wounds and learn from our mistakes although i'm sure in time there will be plenty of blame to go around.

http://www.mysmiley.net/imgs/smile/innocent/innocent0002.gif (http://www.mysmiley.net/freesmiley.php?smiley=innocent/innocent0002.gif)

[helimutt]

Is it just me, or is the price of oil as false as the value of houses? How can a commodity halve in value in less than a year except for traders creating false prices. Funny how we're not at half gas pump prices. We're heading in the right direction for now but hardly where we'd all like to be. add to that fact the government will prob increase fuel tax now, cos fuel's cheaper, and then they'll increase tax by at least 1% for everyone. I love the UK, don't you?

[Alex Whittingham]

Its not that odd when you consider how much of the pump price is tax. That hasn't changed.

[no sponsor]

Littco,

I'm afraid you are wrong. You are assuming everyone is British, and will all be affected by the British economy.

Some countries govts help their young thrusters by offering educational loans (not commercial, bank loans, as in the UK). Also, it is much cheaper to train in other countries, and there are an awful lot of people without EU passports who have the right to live here in the UK and take those airline jobs. It was less than 10 years ago that BMI and EZY had roadshows in certain Southern Hemisphere countries.

Airlines will never sponsor again; the accountants will see to that.

[spinnaker]

Is it just me, or is the price of oil as false as the value of houses? ......
Yes, along with every quote on the stock market.

We have seen huge swings in prices that do not follow logic. Demand for oil when it was $147 a barrel is not that different than demand today and the price of Brent Crude $67 a barrel. + the possibility of OPEC reducing output. Demand is and will fall, but by that much!

Edit:

I forgot to mention that I found out the amount of what I suspect is the 'Toxic' debt that George Bush refers too: Globally $45 trillion in 2007. We don't know for sure, because its all outside of the regulated markets and complicated. Its the same stuff that brought down Lehman, Bear Stearns, AIG etc. Last week there was an auction of Leham swaps that realised 10% of there book value. Take that as an indication and apply it to the global debt = $40.5 trillion down the pan. So far the input from world central banks is a total of $2 trillion. $38.5 trillion to go. :sad:

[ChrisLKKB]

chickentikkamasala (http://www.pprune.org/members/281267-chickentikkamasala) : bloody hell, Thatcher has been out of government for 18 years and you're still trying to blame her. I'm no fan of hers but the blame lays squarely at Gordon Browns feet, he got greedy, he let the banks get greedy and made the people greedy.

As heliport says, regulate the pressure in the bubble and it doesn't burst, turn your back on it and leave it all but unregulated and this is the result...no more boom and bust my eye :ugh:

$45tr toxic debt...OH CR:mad:P !! Any chance the Middle East is liable for most of it ? :uhoh:

Is that all from the ethnic third world North America courtesey of Clinton ?

[spinnaker]

bloody hell, Thatcher has been out of government for 18 years and you're still trying to blame her. I'm no fan of hers but the blame lays squarely at Gordon Browns feet, he got greedy, he let the banks get greedy and made the people greedy.

Arguably we could say that we have been slowly building up to this since the end of WWII. The real momentum started with Thatchers monetarist policies, which set the scene for changes that the financial institutions could take advantage. So much so, that a new sector of the industry started up outside of the normal regulatory environment. During the last decade, the credit derivative markets have grown into the untamed monster that we have today. Bill Clinton took advantage with laws that not only allowed institutions to lend to people with poor credit ratings, but compelled them to do so. In 1995 the mother of all evils was invented, the Credit Default Swap, by Blythe Masters, a 34-year Cambridge graduate who was then the head of JP Morgan’s Global Credit Derivatives group. Her bosses were sold on the idea of this derivative, that fell out side of regulation. Oh boy have these derivatives mushroomed, and percolated into the very heart of the banking system. You name the bank, they have some (lots).

In a nutshell, these derivatives may have been used as part of bank reserves that are required under legislation. That's why banks wont lend to each other, because they have crap reserves, and all they have to offer in collateral is crap.

I digress. I can forgive Thatcher to an extent, the country was in an awful mess, and she had to somehow mobilise the countries finances. That is what she did. Successive governments became more liberal with fiscal policy and they liked the apparent wealth that is created. Have you noticed a coming together of politics between Labour and Conservative? Nothing to do with what is right, but more to do with what the banks wanted, government was in a hole and just kept digging, for decades. The current PM Gordon Brown, formarly the chancellor for the best part of the last decade, could and should have taken positive action. He did not. He must have known the time bomb was ticking. What did he do? Maybe he did try to somehow curb the madness of the derivative instrument. Maybe that is why he had heated arguments with the then PM Tony Blair. Maybe that is why he was breaking four mobile phone per week by throwing them, out of sheer frustration. We shall have to wait a few years to read Gordon Browns memoires. One thing is for sure, history will hold him responsible, for now anyway.

$45tr toxic debt...OH CRP !! Any chance the Middle East is liable for most of it ?

Nope.

---------------------------

George Bush seems confident that we have passed the critical stage, ie enough good money has been put in to counter the crap, we shall see.

I do know for sure, that for some time discussions have been taking place between government and financial sectors to bring the credit derivatives under proper regulation (governments wanted to do it, but never did). I know that last week, meetings have been taking place between treasury officials and the financial institutions to specifically address this issue. That should give some idea to the urgency.

It is just a crying shame that so many lives have, and will be ****** up, by politicians who allowed madmen (the bankers) to write their own rules for the asylum, and the politicians enshrined them in law.

Oh sorry, yes, Government did not write the rules, the bankers did. :(

[ChrisLKKB]

11 years presiding over the economy and the Bank of England and Gordon hasn't got one thing to crow about regarding any sort of attempt to mitigate this problem.

28 years ago it would have been impossible to tell what sort of monster the banking sector would become. 18 years on, if the chancelor of the day was ignorant to the problems that were arrising he'd be grossly incompetent, if he knew about the problems that were building, he'd be grossly negligant.

On top of the derivatives problem some are saying there is a huge problem with naked short selling and fraudulent share selling in the US

Deep Capture Blog (http://www.deepcapture.com/) The Sanity Check > Home (http://thesanitycheck.com/)

None the less, Warren Buffet is still bullish about the long term prospects for the economy saying most major US companies with be setting new profit records 5, 10 and 20 years from now. So (hopefully) it can't be all bad.

[littco]

Nosponsor

I hear what you are saying but this is a world economic crisis.. No country is void from it, and just because a government gives educational loans do you think that suddenly lots of students in these countries are suddenly going to become pilots?! I'm afraid not..


All of the major countries of the world are affected by this and all will be faced with the same problem in years to come, just because training is cheaper in other countries doesn't mean they are suddenly going to have an influx of students training to become students. The Likes of Uk, France, Spain, Germany, Finalnd, Iceland, Italy, Switzerland, Portugal, Usa, Austrialia, New zealand, India, china, Hell you name them are all going to face economic recession and all going to student numbers decrease.

It will be interesting times, but please if you can show me a nation that is going to have queues of students in the UK in 4 years time taking all the new FATPL jobs then I will stand corrected, but I really can't see it.

[spinnaker]

I would certainly like to see some of the cabinet papers. If I were in the chancellors shoes and the Prime Minister prevented me from doing the right thing, I would resign. Gordon didn't.

[cumulus]

I guess another factor is that many of the recent wannabes have financed their training off the back off the recently deceased housing and credit bubble. Now, if that has gone for good, and say that a couple of integrated or modular training schools go bust in the coming recession, there could be a shortage of new pilots and a bottleneck in the means to train up new pilots in a few years time.

[boeing320]

chickentikamasala, you cant seriously blame Mrs T and the conservatives for the huge credit bubble and bust. the obscene increase in cheap money and lax financial regulation happened on labour's eleven and half year watch - period. it felt good at the time, so everyone kept voting for them, that was their concern after their miserable fortunes in the 70s and 80s.

browns claims of financial prudence and abolishing boom and bust were always ropey, now they're a bad joke.

it'll be interesting to see what happens to pilots prospects over the next couple of years - wanabee numbers will reduce due to lack of credit, general pessimism etc, so the supply will reduce. but, airlines will go bust or shrink or merge, maybe big ones. the companies i would not want to invest in right now are the big fight schools...

[no sponsor]

There are already hundreds of qualified ATPLf holders eligible to work in the UK who do not have an airline job. Someone estimated that CTC alone have 130 cadets in their system. How many will graduate from the Integrated schools this year? 200? + all the others from modular schools, probably at least another 100 + military. Enough to take the requirements for new pilots of many airlines for many years.

How many Australian, NZ, SA and Indians have the licence and can work here? Hundreds. Add to that all those EU member countries.

My airline has 300 pilots, for 32 aircraft, Monarch a similar number. There aren't the jobs available to absorb the number of 'eligible' candidates, and the boom times are unlikely to return in such a saturated airline market.

There ain't ever going to be a shortage of low-houred ATPLf holders. Never has, never will.

If you're waiting around for a sponsorship to start, you will be waiting for a very long time!

[chickentikkamasala]

chickentikamasala, you cant seriously blame Mrs T and the conservatives for the huge credit bubble and bust. the obscene increase in cheap money and lax financial regulation happened on labour's eleven and half year watch - period. it felt good at the time, so everyone kept voting for them, that was their concern after their miserable fortunes in the 70s and 80s.

browns claims of financial prudence and abolishing boom and bust were always ropey, now they're a bad joke.



Boeing320.

I seem to have been taken slightly out of context about Mrs T, I wasn't blaming her for the mess we are in now, merely pointing out that the decision to allow people to buy their council houses was part of the conditions which have contributed to what we have today.

I would be the first to say that this Government and Gordon Brown are a joke and have to go.

Today we have already seen that the people responsible for the mess we have today will not be held to account and they will continue to receive their bonuses in the form of cheap shares in their banks. In a few years time when the shares go in value up and they will be laughing their heads off at us. The FSA have been useless up to now and you can bet that they will fail to regulate this like they failed to do with the banks irresponsible attitude to lending.

In the end when the music stops it's always us the tax payer left without the chair. It will never change whilst the banks are calling the shots.

As said earlier Gordon Brown and this government are either in bed with the banks or they are incompetent, either way they have to go.

Although there is a global problem it still angers me that Gordon has managed to globalise the mistakes he has made and now walking around larger than life as a sort of financial saviour. Lets see what happens.

But he'll get away with it because there is still enough stupidity and apathy in this country for him to rely on.

[heli_port]

I think the oil price will be going back up sharpish soon because of the state of the middle eastern economies. They will cut production thus pushing up the price.


http://www.mysmiley.net/imgs/smile/cool/cool0012.gif (http://www.mysmiley.net/freesmiley.php?smiley=cool/cool0012.gif)

[Aerospace101]

How many will graduate from the Integrated schools this year? 200?

I reckon the average no. of integrated grads per year will be around 600. (300; OAA: 150 FTE; 100 CTC; 50 cabair - based on course sizes, courses per yr and success rates)

Apparently 20% of all fATPLs are Integrated (if u believe FLYER); therefore that would mean 2400 modular per yr.

= 3000 fATPLS per yr!!!

GOOD LUCK!

[one post only!]

Wow! 3000!!!!!!!!! That must be on the high side??? Either way it's going to be tough out there. Factor in all the experienced pilots coming back onto the market from insolvent airlines and it gets even harder (LTE only this morning).
I agree with the others who have talked about a fall in the numbers training, surely with credit all the harder to obtain the numbers training will decrease as finance cannot be obtained.
The drop in numbers will take a little while to filter through though so when things pick up there is still going to be quite a long queue waiting for jobs! As ever timing will be everything!
I still blame the short term bonus culture!

[ChrisLKKB]

I blame the Americans, for everything. It's no more than they deserve, :E

[tbavprof]

I blame the Americans, for everything. It's no more than they deserve,

Why? Upset that you're not required to speak German now?;)

[Fair_Weather_Flyer]

No way are people going to carry on training if there are no jobs to go to so I doubt there will be thousands starting their training without the possibility of a job. Back when I did my PPL and ATPL theory in 2002/2003 I was constantly told there would never be any flying jobs ever again and I was wasting my time. On one set of ATPL exams at Silsoe they just had a small classroom with about ten candidates taking exams.

I think that this recession will be deep and it's going to get far worse. If you are a 250hr FATPL right now you're in a spot of bother. That said the most important part of securing a first flying job is timing. You need to train when things look grim so that you're ready to hit the upswing when it happens.

[Aerospace101]

You need to train when things look grim so that you're ready to hit the upswing when it happens.

No I think that is bad advice.

I think the best advice is to time it that you START training when you can actually see things recovering; ie fATPL getting jobs. Its not like in one day we go from no jobs to flood gates open. It takes around 2yrs from the first trickle of fATPLs into airlines to full on recruitment. In those 2 yrs you could quite happily get the training done.

Starting when things look grim is STUPID. Whats to say they still look grim for when you finish, or for the many months/yrs after you finish...

[spinnaker]

Right now, I would wait until the class rooms started to empty a little bit and then go in for a big discount. BTW don't pay all of your money up front either, it has been know for guys to loose all of their cash on a failed school, it does happen. Pay-as-you-go, that would be my motto, if the school doesnt like it, find one that does. Times are tough, use it to your advantage.

Remember, as a student, you are also a customer. That is going to carry some more weight than it has done.

Please excuse my crap spelling and grammar, only I cant find my specs tonight and I cant see a bloody thing.

[ChrisLKKB]

I blame the Americans, for everything. It's no more than they deserve, Why? Upset that you're not required to speak German now?;)

Try not to be fooled into thinking American involvement in wwII was an act of heroic atruism. Far from it, the UK has only recently paid off the loans from the US made under extortionate terms because we were on our knees due to being busy fighting for a free Europe. Then there's the small matter of US Government officials and companies dealing with Nazi Germany for profit throughout wwII so you'll forgive our lack of eternal gratitude. ;)

[biaeghh]

I agree again with Chris, this started in amerika, the only good thing is bush is on the way out and it is looking good for barry O' barmer. I think Mr McCane has had his chips (so to speak).

I don't understand the quip about speaking german, is this relating to Queenie or the war?????

[ChrisLKKB]

Right now, I would wait until the class rooms started to empty a little bit and then go in for a big discount. BTW don't pay all of your money up front either, it has been know for guys to loose all of their cash on a failed school, it does happen. Pay-as-you-go, that would be my motto, if the school doesnt like it, find one that does. Times are tough, use it to your advantage.

And watch out for offers of significant discounts for paying large sums of money up front, SFT did this before going under taking lots of students money with it.

A large integrated trainning provider at EGHH is now being run by the ex SFT owner.

[eikido]

If you guys have seen the british documentary about oil made by Andrew Evans in 2008, there is no way you'd want to become a pilot.


Eikido

[MarcoFF]

Ryanair chief executive Michael O'Leary delivered a buoyant economic forecast in the face of the global financial crisis.
He insisted that the credit crunch was "good for business" and said his low fares airline would reap the benefits of the financial gloom.
"We are not just looking at a recession but a depression," the colourful businessman said.



Low cost airline sterling has a similar view.
They will open in 2009 63 new routes, main hubs being stockholm and copenhagen.


:cool:

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

I'm not persuaded that the involvement of the USA in WWII was anything other than generous and costly. Any walk in a Normandy war cemetery reveals a staggering swathe of American names.

We would not have won without them.

Warnings of schools going bust are quite right. Some will - I guarantee it. Don't let them take your money with it as they sink below the waves.

Now, timing. As I've argued at length and been shot at for doing so this WANNABE business is about timing more than anything else. I got my first job in an airline in 2000 because every airline was hiring like crazy. 2005 and 2006 were vintage years and 2007 had a good first 6 months. 2002, 2003 and the first half of 2004 were bad or very bad.

That was a hiccup.

Sept 11th sent a few EU airlines bust but other expanded very shortly after. In 2002/3 easyJet and Ryanair order 300 new aircraft. Swissair and Sabena went under and many downsized temporarily. But 300 new firm orders meant that most unemployed pilots found new right and left hand seats in short order.

This time it will be totally and utterly different.




IT will.



I promise you.




You HAVE to understand that this is 1990. The stock market has crashed, the banks have nearly collapsed and now the recession, not a dip, is upon us.

To reflect the rest of the economy the airline industry will shrink by 20%.


20% is not Maxjet or some cancelled order or anything less than the failure of some major top 10 UK airlines. Not singular. This will happen in 2009 or early 2010. As such there will be thousands of hugely experienced pilots on the employment market until 2012 at the very very very earliest.

Many of you have no idea how bad things will be, how miserable times can be.

You will find out. There is NO way to avoid swallowing the medicine this time.


If you are just graduating from an Integrated course then you have a massive debt, no prospect of a job for years and your best option is bankruptcy.


Stark. I warned you.



WWW :(

[ChrisLKKB]

I'm not persuaded that the involvement of the USA in WWII was anything other than generous and costly. Any walk in a Normandy war cemetery reveals a staggering swathe of American names.

If it wasn't for the the Americans being bombed into action at Pearl Harbour the fight for a free Europe would have been lost. The personal and human cost on all sides was huge and there are still signs of the devistation caused in European citys even to day.

Oh and I agree, if you are looking for work or starting an integrated course now or in the next year or so you're not in a great position.

[heli_port]

If it wasn't for the the Americans being bombed into action at Pearl Harbour the fight for a free Europe would have been lost.

What a load of drivvel! http://www.mysmiley.net/imgs/smile/confused/confused0054.gif (http://www.mysmiley.net/freesmiley.php?smiley=confused/confused0054.gif)

[biaeghh]

Chris is right again, I think the americans only got involved cos they knew they were in with a chance of winning something.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Lets not head off down the path of debating US involvement in WW2 as its a bit too far off topic even for me.

Instead I recommend reading todays column by Ambrose Evan-Pritchard:

Do our rulers know enough to avoid a 1930s replay? - Telegraph (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/3227361/Do-our-rulers-know-enough-to-avoid-a-1930s-replay.html)



The freight rates for Capesize vessels used to ship grains, coal, and iron ore have fallen 95pc to $11,600 since May, hence the bankruptcy of Odessa’s Industrial Carriers last week with a fleet of 52 vessels. Cargo deliveries dropped 15.2pc at the US Port of Long Beach last month, but that is a lagging indicator.

From what I have been able to find out, shipping is slowing as fast as it did in the grim months of late 1931. “The crisis is now in full swing across the entire world,” said Giulio Tremonti, Italy’s finance minister. “It is hitting the real economy, the productive forces of industry. It’s global, it’s total, and it’s everywhere,” he said.

Italy’s industrial output has fallen 11pc in the last year. Foreign orders have dropped 13pc. But we are all in much the same boat. Europe’s car sales fell 9pc in September (32pc in Spain). US housing starts fell to a 45-year low in September.

Last week, the International Monetary Fund had to rescue...



He is a bear but its a nice summary with some compelling anecdotals and I believe the closing sentiment to be accurate.

Wannabes really need to ignore slowdowns such as Sept11th and learn all about what happened to the airline industry during the 1990 - 1994 period. That will be the best guide to 2008 - 2012. Unfortunately.

Next year a lot of passengers just won't turn up.


WWW

[Re-Heat]

From what I have been able to find out, shipping is slowing as fast as it did in the grim months of late 1931.
Careful. The problem with drybulk shipping is not the demand side, but the fact that the brokers and shippers are unable to get letters of credit from banks. Nobody wants to ship without letters of credit unless you operate in the oil market, therefore the whole market has seized up entirely.

Of course, the effect on the global economy of not shipping iron ore, grain etc around the world does indeed have an impact on the economy, but not in the same way as in 1931.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

This chart compares total credit market debt to U.S. GDP.

The average of this ratio over the last 100 years has been around 155%. This ratio peaked first heading into the Great Depression at 260% (after then falling back to 130%) but has now risen to an unprecedented 350%!

This is why this time is going to be so much worse than the 1991 recession.



http://alphaville.ftdata.co.uk/lib/inc/getfile/2440.jpg




Highlights from the latest Hayman Advisors letter to clients (courtesy of the FT)


How long and deep will this recession be? To develop an educated guess, we must study historical OECD housing busts and their implications for the broader economies and local banking systems. According to a masterful piece by Goldman Sachs Global Economic Team, there have been 24 housing price busts since the 1970’s. Each bust saw at least a 15% real home price decline. The average decline in this sample set is just over 30% with a bottoming after 6 years. Housing busts are generally prolonged experiences with severe economic and banking implications. We believe house prices will drop approx 34% from peak to trough and the economic decline will take at least another 2 ½ years.

The average home price decline of the 24 that were studied was 31% and the average duration was a staggering 25 quarters (just over 6 years)! A few other observations from past housing crisis: 1. Sharp declines in GDP growth (output gaps become deeply negative), 2. GDP growth bottomed several quarters after the busts began, 3. Growth recovered much more slowly but output gaps lagged for longer, 4. There is significant damage in the “Big Five” banking crises (GDP fell 6.6 percentage points and the slowdown lasted for 5 years), 5. Interest rates rose going into the bust and then fell, 6. Credit growth generally slowed (in the current case, credit growth has come to a crashing halt).


We think we will see 10-12% unemployment, a 4-5% decline in GDP, and the equity markets could drop at least 70% from peak to trough. Remember, the capital structures of most of America’s companies have taken on more and more senior debt, subordinated debt, preferred, convertible preferred, trust preferred, and God only knows what else in front of equity.

This means the “equity” piece of the cap structure is enormously positively or negatively leveraged to changes in funding costs and enterprise values. A drop of 70% for the S+P is absolutely possible. Remember, all of the loss estimates we have reviewed have really ignored the coming losses in credit card debt, commercial and industrial loans, commercial real estate loans, CDS contracts, auto loans, and unsecured personal loans. We are experiencing the global deflationary bust of all time. It will deflate the values of just about all assets.

Anything and everything we own will decline precipitously in value. We are not perma-bears like some others, but we must be realistic about facing this terrible economic environment.



You will keep hearing the lie that the banks are afraid to lend to one another. This is not the case. The fact is that they are not lending to each other because they have run out of money. They have nothing to lend.

WWW

[ChrisLKKB]

At least it's not as bad as the 1970s BBC NEWS | Business | 'It's not as bad as the 1970s' (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7678545.stm)Apparently.