Growing Evidence That The Upturn Is Upon Us

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

The only two things sure to go UP this year and next are interest rates and unemployment.


WWW

[BigNumber]

Unemployment certainly, but I'm not so clear why the BoE would lift the interest rate in the 'shorter' term (12months).

[smith]

The only two things sure to go UP this year and next are interest rates and unemployment.

And VAT, due to go back up to 17.5% in January. Buy your brand new car now!

[spider_man]

I have no doubt interest rates will sky rocket... but probably late 2010 onwards when the Conservatives have the keys. Eitherway, the banks win.

[Reality czech]

I showz thees thread to my uncle alexander and he say that how the airlines know who in the pool?

Pilot not stupid and go for a lot of jobs and may be in lots of pools, if get a job then not in any pool. So when things get better airlines go to pool and find they all had the same fish and they all gone!

Any way Yesterday I get letter from home and my mother say that Lenka a girl I go to scool with give up her job in Prauge bar and now work as crew in the cabin for airline.

Mother say Lenka very pleased to no longer have to dance with pole but she still put on enough make up to paint two boats.

May be I go back east things not so bad coz eastern banks full of money from russan mafia.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

The looming collapse of the emerging Eastern European countries is likely to cripple the Austrian and Swedish banking system.

Jobs for cabin crew are much more plentiful than for pilots as many cabin crew view their job as not a lifetime profession.

The nasty phase of the worst recession since World Way Two has yet to be seen in Western Europe. Just two headline today:


Fresh blow for recession recovery as UK economy shrinks by 0.8% | Mail Online (http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1201880/Fresh-blow-recession-recovery-UK-economy-shrinks-0-8.html)

Recession twice as deep as 1990s and 'worst since height of the Depression'


Hard hit: Canary Wharf in London, where many workers have lost their jobs. The UK economy shrank by 0.8 per cent between April and June
Hopes of a swift recovery from the recession were dashed yesterday as it emerged the economy is shrinking at its fastest rate since the Great Depression.
Over the last year, gross domestic product has slumped by 5.6 per cent, the steepest crash since quarterly records began in 1955.

Read more: Fresh blow for recession recovery as UK economy shrinks by 0.8% | Mail Online (http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1201880/Fresh-blow-recession-recovery-UK-economy-shrinks-0-8.html#ixzz0MHos0jF8)


or, try


British economic collapse rivals Great Depression

The collapse in Britain's economy now rivals the worst days of the Great Depression, it has emerged.

Economic output shrank by 5.6pc in the 12 months to the middle of the year, according to official figures which shattered hopes that the recovery has already begun.

The Office for National Statistics said that Britain's gross domestic product (GDP) contracted by 0.8pc in the second quarter, following the unprecedented 2.4pc fall in the first three months of the year. Economists had expected GDP – the broadest measure of the country's economic performance – to shrink by 0.3pc.

According to calculations by Martin Weale of the National Institute for Economic and Social Research the profile of the current recession is now almost identical to the decline in Britain's output between 1929 and 1931. The 5.6pc contraction over the past year almost matches the 5.8pc fall in the year preceding the second quarter of 1931, during which Credit Anstalt in Austria collapsed, triggering a second wave of economic seizure across Europe.

British economic collapse rivals Great Depression - Telegraph (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/recession/5901961/British-economic-collapse-rivals-Great-Depression.html)


History suggest to us that the large airline collapses come after the technical recession has passed..


WWW

[cjd_a320]

Oh the joys of Euroland banks..... :ooh:

Remember the Telegraph who were "Politely" advised to censor (now
underestimated) figure of £16.3 trillion of toxic assets they're sitting on.....

Uncensored....
A secret 17-page paper discussed by finance ministers, including the Chancellor Alistair Darling on Tuesday, also warned that government attempts to buy up or underwrite such assets could plunge the European Union into a deeper crisis.

National leaders and EU officials share fears that a second bank bail-out in Europe will raise government borrowing at a time when investors - particularly those who lend money to European governments - have growing doubts over the ability of countries such as Spain, Greece, Portugal, Ireland, Italy and Britain to pay it back.

“Estimates of total expected asset write-downs suggest that the budgetary costs – actual and contingent - of asset relief could be very large both in absolute terms and relative to GDP in member states,” the EC document, seen by The Daily Telegraph, cautioned. “

"It is essential that government support through asset relief should not be on a scale that raises concern about over-indebtedness or financing problems.”

European Commission officials have estimated that “impaired assets” may amount to 44pc of EU bank balance sheets. The Commission estimates that so-called financial instruments in the ‘trading book’ total £12.3 trillion (13.7 trillion euros), equivalent to about 33pc of EU bank balance sheets.

In addition, so-called 'available for sale instruments' worth £4trillion (4.5 trillion euros), or 11pc of balance sheets, are also added by the Commission to arrive at the headline figure of £16.3 trillion.

Banks account for their assets in different ways. Assets put into the “trading book” have to be marked to current market values, while those in the “banking book” are loans and other assets which the institution believes it can hold to maturity. Other assets are classified as “available for sale”, which are also marked to market values.

The Commission figure is significant because of the role EU officials will play in devising rules to evaluate “toxic” bank assets later this month. New moves to bail out banks will be discussed at an emergency EU summit at the end of February. The EU is deeply worried at widening spreads on bonds sold by different European countries.

In line with the risk, and the weak performance of some EU economies compared to others, investors are demanding increasingly higher interest to lend to countries such as Italy instead of Germany. Ministers and officials fear that the process could lead to vicious spiral that threatens to tear both the euro and the EU apart.

“Such considerations are particularly important in the current context of widening budget deficits, rising public debt levels and challenges in sovereign bond issuance,” the EC paper warned.

Censored... :)
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/financialcrisis/4590512/European-banks-may-need-16.3-trillion-bail-out-EC-dcoument-warns.html

[cjd_a320]

It will be a while yet (years) before central banks even consider to rise rates....

They know that "paper" is being vaporized as soon as its coming off the press. Its takes time for central banks to work through 60 Trillon !( if they ever do)

Ex MPC member David Blanchflower even highlighted the great "unmentionable" truth in public... :eek:

Blanchflower
It’s very early days to say that you know the endgame is even in sight,
The bank should consider spending as much as 300 billion pounds in newly printed money, twice as much as the current total authorized by the government.
Blanchflower Says BOE Risks Choking Off Recovery (Update1) - Bloomberg.com (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601085&sid=aQ_ee3MnxDFY)

[Penguin68]

Well if the Euroland banks are sitting on 16.3 trillion of toxic waste they should try the same accounting wheeze as the US banks just did and turn them into Phantom record profits then pay themselves huge bonuses for doing so. As long as everyone agrees that banks are allowed to use mark-to-make-believe or accrual accouting the day of reckoning will be pushed far far into the future - ABS/MBS typically have notional maturity dates way off in the future (decades, often 50+ years).

[Penguin68]

"The looming collapse of the emerging Eastern European countries is likely to cripple the Austrian and Swedish banking system."

You've been reading Ambrose Cassandra-Malthus' column in the Torygraph again haven't you?! Not a good idea unless you want to end it all ;)

[Reality czech]

I very flattered to get reply from big financal commisar like WWW, and my Uncle Alexander who also work in british financal sector say that he right on the money but I not so sure, I wash a lot of cars this weekend and get enough for rent and leason effevt of control 2.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Actually, Ambrose just reads these pages and then uses that as the basis for his little Telegraph column.

WWW

[cjd_a320]

Those looking for this mess to be over by 2011 ( 2011 .45 for the Armstrong model fans) will be dissapointed....

[cjd_a320]

British Airways Seeks Delay in Boeing Payments:

British Airways Seeks Delay in Boeing Payments: Report - Companies * Europe * News * Story - CNBC.com (http://www.cnbc.com/id/32214490)

[Greg2041]

WWW is of course absolutely right and I would go as far as saying only a fool would chose to ignore him.

Now the big question is, when do you think the upturn in professional pilot recruitment will take place? I'm guessing at 2013 earliest but what do you experts think?

[piky]

"WWW is of course absolutely right and I would go as far as saying only a fool would chose to ignore him."

Absolute B****X, however, most of us enjoy the entertainment and being 'fools' at the same time;)

[waco]

..........it will end in tears Mr P

[Re-Heat]

ft.com:

Airlines beset by heavy losses

By Kevin Done in London and John Burton in Singapore

Published: July 30 2009 19:11 | Last updated: July 30 2009 19:11

Leading airlines in Europe and Asia reported heavy losses on Thursday amid the deepening crisis engulfing the aviation sector.

Giovanni Bisignani, director-general of the International Air Transport Association, said carriers were being hit by “shocking” revenue falls on international routes of up to 30 per cent at the beginning of the busy June-August travel period, when airlines traditionally made their money.

He said: “The outlook remains bleak . . .  There are no signs of an early economic recovery.”

Air France-KLM, the largest European airline measured by passenger traffic, said it had been hit by an €823m ($1.1bn) downturn in the three months from April to June, as it fell to a pre-tax loss of €612m from a profit of €211m.

All three leading European carriers are deep in loss and have been forced into the capital markets in recent weeks to bolster their shrinking cash resources.

British Airways will on Friday announce an operating loss for the first time in its history for the three months from April to June, traditionally its second strongest quarter of the year.

Germany’s Lufthansa, which is taking over three smaller struggling European carriers, reported a pre-tax loss for the six months to June of €336m, down from a profit of €478m.

In Asia, Singapore Airlines, the world’s most highly valued airline by market capitalisation, warned it could make a full-year loss for the first time since it was founded in 1972, as it reported its first quarterly deficit since the Sars crisis in 2003.

Singapore Airlines reported a net loss of S$307m ($213m) in the April-June period against a profit of S$359m a year ago.

Revenues fell 30 per cent to S$2.87bn. Fuel hedging losses amounted to S$287m.

Long-haul network airlines are being hit by sharply falling revenues in particular from premium business travellers, previously their biggest source of profits, as well as from the plunge in demand for air cargo.

Mr Bisignani said airlines were also confronting the threats of a renewed rise in the oil price and the potential impact of swine flu.

“Cash flow is threatened by weak demand, exaggerated by fare discounting, and after years of cost reduction, the scope for further cuts is limited.”

Iata said that air cargo demand was 16.5 per cent lower in June than a year ago, while international passenger traffic fell 7.2 per cent year-on-year.

Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2009

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

For the winter after next BA plans already to have 22 aircraft out of its fleet grounded.

Thats the UK's largest airline planning on having 22 aircraft parked up all winter in 18 months time.

Wannabes woes will not be over for several years at best.


WWW

[JB007]

There will be a 'big' cull across most airlines this winter...not just flight crew! For those of us on the inside of UK companies; it's starting now, unions are talking to management!

Harsh but; <200 hours/fATPL = you're stuffed! If you want to start, simply don't!

[cjd_a320]

Greg2041,
Years 2034 to 2037 look a reasonable time scale for this econmic mess to work its way out the system... :)

Still deflating.....
BA sees no upturn & continue to cut costs!
LONDON (Reuters) - British Airways said on Friday it saw no improvement in bleak trading conditions and vowed to continue to cut costs, rounding off another miserable week for Europe's airlines.
BA sees no upturn | Reuters (http://uk.reuters.com/article/idUKTRE56U15C20090731)

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

This is the poster on my office wall, I thought I'd share it. I think of it as a sort of big calender.



WWW


http://i407.photobucket.com/albums/pp151/PiXeL8r_PhotoBucket/Dominov3.jpg

[Bruce Wayne]

you must have a big scanner !!

[smith]

WWW

You keep posting graffics that you and only you seem to understand!

[piky]

I have a more interesting Callender Piccy on my office wall! Anyone like to see it?:E

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Well I say office, I mean study.

We are at point 6.6 on the calender.


The worst is yet to come.

WWW

[clear prop!!!]

Tell me, why would anyone but a manic depressive, extremely unhappy with life, negative person even think of puting this poster up on their office/study/fall out shelter/gunroom wall?????

Life goes on!

[Matt.V]

I think it is just one part of what is on the wall. Next to it should be a plan of action.

That reminded me I need to restock my food supplies in my bunker

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

clear prop!!! - you seem to labour under this delusion that I'm a manic depressive, extremely unhappy with life, negative person.

Just ain't so old chap.

If you don't like my view attack it, counter it, refute it. Attacking the state of mind of the view holder just makes you look weak.

But then I have to admire your consistency - you've been lobbing bricks at me for coming up a decade now:


http://www.pprune.org/61777-post12.html


19th Sept 2001

Just how many threads are you going to start telling would-be pilots that things look bad???

I think it is fair to say that we have all been shattered by recent events, and can see what has happened as a result, on the stock markets.. and beyond.

Yes, things look pretty ****ty at the moment and yes, you have ‘made it’ before the dreadful events of last week, but for ##### sake lets not kill off the idea of aviation as a career.



WWW


ps Is there still a massive shortage of flying instructors and is your Scottish house still going up in value?

[lpokijuhyt]

WWW: Let the ostrich keep his head in the sand.

[TheBeak]

It's almost as though you all treat www like a voodoo doll on which you pin the blame for the current situation.

Anyone who denies what is happeneing and what lies ahead is in deep denial. The power of positive thought will not change anything, the mass of the economy has much, much too great a momementum - the outcome is inevitable and unstoppable. From here we must let nature run it's course and be realistic. If you are not realisitc you are setting your life up for a good few years of shock, disappointment and acute worry. If you are realsitic the process will be a much more measured one.

Taking the p*ss out of WWW might make you feel like you are gaining acceptance with a small but pointless, pathetic group on PPRUNE but it is an ignorant, unfair (to the more suggestable) and ultimately for yourself, futile process. The purpose of this forum is to establish facts and advice, and, structures and methods on gaining and maintaining a career in aviation - specifically for most as a pilot. Saying the depression is going to be less severe and blatantly underestimating the timescale of things is not planning for the worst (something we all do/did/hope to do in the career we have invested so much in) and is reckless. Planning for the worst leaves you something in reserve. Give the guy a break, he is offering you excellent advice and for all the right reasons.

I can not guarantee a thing as to the timescale and magnitude of things to come (though I do have my opinions) but what I can assure with some weight to anyone lucky enough not to be too far gone into the disaster that is pilot training that you will not miss a thing by putting off your training for a couple of years. There is NO ship that will have sailed. However, train now and you could very well find yourself, with out the intense currency that will see you good in an interview and sim check, without the fresh, detailed knowledge that will help answer questions confidently and, quite frankly, without a prayer.

Anyone who starts now is an increadibly risky person and is not someone that belongs in a £40-50 million, 60 ton jet with 170 peoples lives in their hands. In this career, you fly by the book and the numbers, the facts and the rules NOT by your gut and your hopes, and, denial and 'positivity'. You are where you are, do NOT try and convince yourself you are somewhere you are not.

'The book and the numbers, and, the facts and the rules' are readily available on this site in the form of articles pasted from newspaper articles, newspapers themselves and from the much more credible posters on this site.

We will all end out with what we deserve. Don't train now.

[Yorky Towers]

Quote "Anyone who starts now is an increadibly risky person and is not someone that belongs in a £40-50 million, 60 ton jet with 170 peoples lives in their hands."

What's thate statement supposed to mean? :ugh:

[BigNumber]

I guess it means that such a person might struggle with DODAR?

[Black Knat]

Stage 9 "loss of confidence amongst foreign investors" is the key. If things did follow the flow diagram then what you have to remember is that other parts of the world are NOT in the sh+te that the US and UK are facing. We will see the Far East, China, India etc continue with life/trading and the 'naughty boys' on the sidelines. The balance of power will change- America and the UK could become third world counties. Look at history and the rise and fall of great nations. Incidentally, Japan plodded on during the 90's producing some good stuff despite economically being in the poo.

[TheBeak]

Apart from the fact that I misspelled incredible I can't see what is difficult to understand in what I said. For those that can't see the wood for the trees, let me explain.

Someone willing to spend £60K + on flight training (in the most part secured against their dearest loved ones possessions) with the facts facing us now is a risky person. When faced with marginal weather, diminshing fuel available and a full load the airline needs someone who frees themselves from subjective feelings (like being bored of their current job and being 'desperate' to be a pilot) and looks at the facts. They need someone who has the foresight and prevents the situation from occuring infact.

People beginning training now, especially on an integrated course:
1. Have no foresight.
2. Are risk takers.
3. Have no situational awareness and are suffering from environmental capture.

Of course most who undertake pilot training at any time are taking a risk. But not like this. It has never been close to this in my opinion.

Risky people don't belong in the flightdeck. People who start training now on an integrated course are risky people. You complete the equation.

[lesgonard]

Someone willing to spend £60K + on flight training (in the most part secured against their dearest loved ones possessions) with the facts facing us now is a risky person. When faced with marginal weather, diminshing fuel available and a full load the airline needs someone who frees themselves from subjective feelings (like being bored of their current job and being 'desperate' to be a pilot) and looks at the facts. They need someone who has the foresight and prevents the situation from occuring infact.

I'm sorry beak but you trained with Oxford and now (regrettably), don't have a job. Why didn't you have the foresight to prevent this from occuring?

These pompous generalisations against current wanabes must stop. It could be argued that today's wanabes might have a better chance of employment in 18-20 months time than you did when you finished training.

Why shoot down someone who is following in your footsteps?

[Reality czech]

First customer this morning leave Daily Telegraph in office after I wash his car and ths is headline as I think you call it in english.
It not seem to match things said in post above, and on page 33 it say "US slump is almost over, IMF predicts.

It seem that financal commisar WWW and IMF not agree.

Tonight I show this to uncle Alexander and see what he say as he also work with financal experts.

Last night I get email from Lenka and see say she work very hard and airline going flat out. Also this airline promote from crew of cabin to pilot if you get ATPL and three guys already do this.
I might go back home and try for crew of cabin job as back home this OK job and it not requirment back home to be as Trevor my boss at car supermarket say "limp of wrist"

I show Lenka's email to Uncle Alexander last night and he say it may be way to get pilot job but it defanatly not first time Lenka flat out at work.

I hope Monday wather OK as I try to fly Effvect of controls 2

[Mikehotel152]

I'd have thought we're at about 15 on that schedule.

[disco87]

only two more fun-filled stages to go

[flyboy1818]

Absolute nonsense, if you have the money do the training now, by the time you graduate this will all be coming to an end. Sure in the mean time ALOT of Pilots will be made redundant and due to the average age of the Pilot workforce being higher than the norm MANY of them will never fly commercially again. If your a Pilot in your fifties and you get made redundant now the likelyhood is that you will call it a day and go and buy a bar in Marbella or something to that effect. Have a look at the commercial flight training schools at the moment, they seem a little quite and desperate and are willing to bargin for a cut price deal. If you can afford to do this without prostituting yourself to a bank then get a good deal and do it now before we get back to peak oil and the price of training sky rockets! Thats my 20 cents!

[TheBeak]

Thats my 20 cents!

And that's about all it's worth.

Numerous unproven, unfactual, assumed, pointless statements:

by the time you graduate this will all be coming to an end

Back it up.

due to the average age of the Pilot workforce being higher than the norm

The norm being? Show us your information on pilot age averages.

the likelyhood is that you will call it a day and go and buy a bar in Marbella or something to that effect

Not every one is a chav. Have you seen the state of the economy in Spain? Almost 20% unemployment. Great place to set up yet another plebby British owned bar.

Have a look at the commercial flight training schools at the moment, they seem a little quite and desperate and are willing to bargin for a cut price deal.

The integrated schools are as busy if not more busy than ever. They have lowered the standards perhaps but they are just as busy. Show us your evidence again though by all means. There will not be any haggling on the price. DREAM ON.

If you can afford to do this without prostituting yourself to a bank then get a good deal and do it now

As always, state the obvious - easier said than done. Sure if you can get £60K + without going to a bank it lightens the load.

before we get back to peak oil and the price of training sky rockets!

Which will be the catalyst for more of the weak airlines going under.

I am starting to think some people are endulging in schadenfreude.

[superdash]

Reality czech :ok:

[TheBeak]

I'm sorry beak but you trained with Oxford and now (regrettably), don't have a job. Why didn't you have the foresight to prevent this from occuring?


Because I didn't listen to advice on here and because I did listen to an 'out of touch' BA 747 captain who told me to go for it and all would be well. Suffice to say he is quite happy in his million pound home with his sports car outside and I have 700 hours and a pityful amount of jet time and as you quite rightly mention, now, no job - not a sniff. I paid for all my training without any help or effect on anyone.


These pompous generalisations against current wanabes must stop

Uhhhhh no. Are they pompous because I bother to punctuate and spell correctly (most of the time)? Other than that I do not see anything that is affectedly grand or ostentaitous about my posts, relatively speaking. And they aren't 'against' current wannabes. They are advice to them, hopefully to go with them.

It could be argued that today's wanabes might have a better chance of employment in 18-20 months time than you did when you finished training.


I'd disagree, the depression we are in is far worse than I was aware of. I had a feeling things would plateau but this is dreadful. And it's here to stay a fair while. So I would definately disagree. These wannabes have the facts laid out in front of them.

Why shoot down someone who is following in your footsteps?

Anyone who takes it as shooting down is taking it the wrong way. It is advice. Friendly advice. Anyone who takes it as shooting down is not going to enjoy the chronic criticism pilot training entails.

As I have said I am not saying never train to be a pilot, just don't do it near to now. Some things are worth waiting for and if you all want to be a pilot as much as you say you do then it'll be no problem.

Take on board the advice, criticism and facts or I think you'll live to regret it.

[flyboy1818]

My evidence is based upon what I see not upon what I read. Seeing is believing in this day and age. What I see as someone that works in Aviation is an awful lot of the bold and old calling it a day, and there are many.

I have just visited many modular FTO's recently and I have been offered a discount at several that would not have been possible even a year ago. This is without paying upfront, just simply based on the acknowledgement that I will complete both my CPL and IR at these schools.

I don't need 60K since I'm not integrated, its called years of hard graft and it works!

[Bruce Wayne]

It seem that financal commisar WWW and IMF not agree.

An Item in today's news....

"Britain will have the biggest debt of any major economy next year, according to the International Monetary Fund.

The Government budget deficit will soar to £191billion, the Washington-based organisation has warned. "

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Re the IMF vs Me:

Whilst being guilty of blowing my own trumpet here I think you'll find my predictions of a debt and banking crisis and a very large recession were made much earlier and much more accurately than the IMF's.

I also advised following my jump out of the stock market at FTSE 6,300 in Spring 2007 and selling my house and renting from April 2007 (4 months before Northern Rock) in anticipation of a house price crash (now down 25%). I also mentioned buying gold at $820...

You're only as good as your next prediction but I'm happy to put my record up against the IMF or BoE or anyone else (other than Goldman Sachs maybe..).


We are in a horrible mess. Paying off this debt will be a task still shackled around the neck of my newborn son on his retirement day. History will judge the UK economic management of the last decade as a reckless disgrace. And whilst I'm having a rant why the hell did I spend yesterday morning at the funeral of an 18 year old boy killed in Afghanistan? This government has managed the trick of beggaring us financially whilst spilling our brave servicemans blood pointlessly. The country is a bloody shambles and I feel sorry for any youngster trying to get any career off the ground never mind an aviation one. <rant off>

<rant on> And another thing, is it ever ever going to stop bloody raining in this country?! Height of summer - cruel joke more like it, I've been towing cars stuck in mud and water this morning in what felt like a monsoon at the Somme.. <rant off>

;)


WWW

[Cows getting bigger]

Sleepless nights, WWW? :)

I think you are right regarding government. History will show that the late 80s, 90s and early millennium was a pitiful time as far as leadership of this country was concerned.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

A few - yeah ;)

In October 1991, in the depths of the last major recession in the UK, then chancellor Norman Lamont seized upon a couple of business surveys showing a little more optimism about the future to suggest that the economy was finally turning around:


‘what we are seeing is the return of that vital ingredient - confidence. The green shoots of economic spring are appearing once again.’


It took another 2 years for unemployment to peak and 5 years until house prices rose above general inflation. I expect to hear Darling make a similar speech within the next 9 months. Bear in mind though that it was 5 years before pilot recruitment recovered last time.


WWW

[Cows getting bigger]

Not wanting to offer an opinion on where we are right now, I can state with absolute certainty that my particular side of aviation (standard PPL flying school/club) has yet to see any fall off in business. Indeed, our stats are well up on last year. That said, I 'm not burying my head in the sand. :ooh:

[Artie Fufkin]

Reality Czech, do I spot the same faux pidgin that A320rider used to affect? (if so, welcome back, we missed you)

:ok:

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Over on my other forum (flying Instructors) there has been a lot of talk about the high volume of new applicants and the low volume of new jobs..

faux pidgin - maybe, but if its well done it legit I think..


WWW

[Reality czech]

Artie Flifkin

I not this A320rider you talk off, but I go on A320 once and wen it start it sound like old flower grinder that Uncle Boris have on his farm. It make me think that all not OK with Airbus so I now fly with Ryanair 737 coz it not make this sound.

I now think even more of WWW he not only know all about financial market but play trumpet as well.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

That would probably be the sound of the Power Transfer Unit which is a very noisy hydraulic motor which you sit overhead if you are in the middle of the cabin. If you feel safer on one of Mr O' Learys 737's then there is nowt so queer as folk.

If you're a troll you're good though. ;)


WWW

[Bealzebub]

We are in a horrible mess. Paying off this debt will be a task still shackled around the neck of my newborn son on his retirement day. History will judge the UK economic management of the last decade as a reckless disgrace. And whilst I'm having a rant why the hell did I spend yesterday morning at the funeral of an 18 year old boy killed in Afghanistan? This government has managed the trick of beggaring us financially whilst spilling our brave servicemans blood pointlessly. The country is a bloody shambles and I feel sorry for any youngster trying to get any career off the ground never mind an aviation one.

Because rightly or wrongly, we choose to take this battle into the backyard of the adversary, rather than being forced to fight it on the airport concourses, high rise buildings and underground stations of our own backyard. We should be grateful and down on bended knees for the sacrifices that our military volunteers are prepared to make.

Having just returned from visiting the rain soaked military headstone, that adorns one of my own childrens final resting place, it is some small comfort to think that your own newborn son might be spared a similiar fate in the future, and that you can continue to pontificate your clever soothsayer and pundit views from your comfy armchair, swimming pool or whatever other location you wish to brag about this week.

[Re-Heat]

I would join, but this discussion is edging towards JetBlast.

Lloyds results tomorrow. More write-downs expected to join the Rock's today, but then again, the rest of the business might be starting to recover...

[2 Whites 2 Reds]

Bealzebub....

Thats quite possibly the most powerful and thought provolking posts I've ever read on PPRUNE. Firstly, sincere condolonces for your loss and believe me as a citizen of Britain (won't call it Great anymore), I am extremely grateful and in awe of the sacrafices made by our armed services on our behalf. The poor sods shouldn't be out in Afghanistan or Iraq in my opinion but thats merely my view.

Perhaps now the public seem to be gathering strength in parliament its about time we put our foot down and demand one of two things happen....either our soldiers are immediately properly equipped with everything they need to do their job or they ALL, every single one of them, comes home and we look to fight the war in a different way. (Sorry rant off, but this is a subject that strikes close to home!)

2W2R

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

I introduced this subject to this thread so its my fault. The juxtaposition of my own sons birth whilst a neighbour buries her 18 year old son back from Afghanistan meant it was playing on my mind somewhat.

So we'll draw a line there Bealzebub and draw back closer to the thread topic.


------------------


The Northern Crock results were appalling. 39% of their book is in negative equity and as house prices continue to fall into the bleak winter of 2009/10 that is going to quickly get worse. And all that pious talk of "american sub-prime lending" - what the hell would you catagorise Northern Rock as if not a massive sub-prime lender?!

WWW

[cjd_a320]

Still deflating....

Cathay Pacific Sees No Signs Of Sustained Recovery - CEO Memo

ONG KONG (Dow Jones)--Cathay Pacific Airways Ltd. (0293.HK) Chief Executive Tony Tyler said in a weekly memo to the airline's staff that he sees no signs of a sustained recovery for the airline, even though the latest revenue figures show the carrier's performance has bottomed out.
"Our latest revenue figures highlight the fact that we are still some way from climbing out of our deep hole," Tyler said in his latest weekly memo, seen by Dow Jones Newswires on Monday.

He said passenger revenue last week fell more than 15% short of the airline's weekly target, while cargo revenue missed the airline's target by 20%. "Not a pretty picture," he said.

Tyler said the Hong Kong-based carrier still faces a very challenging operating environment, and that other leading airlines have reported disappointing first-half results, reflecting the extent to which the economic downturn has hurt aviation.

Tyler also said Cathay Pacific's passenger revenue is 13% below its year-to-date target, while cargo revenue is 22.5% below target.

Article - WSJ.com (http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20090803-700396.html)

[Penguin68]

The Northern Crock results were appalling. 39% of their book is in negative equity and as house prices continue to fall into the bleak winter of 2009/10 that is going to quickly get worse. And all that pious talk of "american sub-prime lending" - what the hell would you catagorise Northern Rock as if not a massive sub-prime lender?!

... and why would anybody be surprised by this? They securitized the good stuff and flogged it off to outfits like the one I used to work for. What was left on the NR books was the garbage including the 'non-conforming' aka 'liar loans' which in the US is tagged 'sub-prime'. This is true for pretty much all the lenders who had securitization programs - which is nearly everyone. And the good stuff that was securitized turned out to be garbage as well and/or they built the MBS with insufficient margins based on a ludicrously low assumption of default correlation. Still, if you now rebook those MBS as investment positions which will one day redeem at par (these arent the droids you're looking for ;)) you can show a huge profit and pay yourself a nice bonus at Christmas.

And its going to get MUCH worse. The public sector hasn't felt the axe yet but its coming - 'Nice Dave' will have no choice but to swing it hard. That is when you're going to see a firesale and prices down 50% from the peak. Congrats on your market timing WWW and stay in your rental if you're still there.

One thing I take issue with - why are you only peeved about the economic management of the last decade? - this cluster:mad: is the result of the ethos of self/no regulation and letting the dogs run free and it goes back to 79/80. Nouveau LieBlair was too spineless to swim against the tide but the die was cast by the 'Chicago Boys' a dead lousy B-movie actor and a dotty old lady from Grantham.

[Sciolistes]

One thing I take issue with - why are you only peeved about the economic management of the last decade? - this clusterf*ck is the result of the ethos of self/no regulation and letting the dogs run free and it goes back to 79/80. Nouveau LieBlair was too spineless to swim against the tide but the die was cast by the 'Chicago Boys' a dead lousy B-movie actor and a dotty old lady from Grantham.
A point made by your's truely too. Suggest Adam Curtis' documentary series "The Mayfair Set" for some insight on why we are in this mess.

[cjd_a320]

Still a lot of printing to do........


Few commentators care to mention that the total notional value of derivatives in the financial system is over $1.0 QUADRILLION (that’s 1,000 TRILLIONS).

US Commercial banks alone own an unbelievable $202 trillion in derivatives. The top five of them hold 96% of this.

By the way, the chart is in TRILLIONS of dollars:

http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2009/8/4/saupload_banks_thumb1.jpg

As you can see, Goldman Sachs alone has $39 trillion in derivatives outstanding. That’s an amount equal to more than three times total US GDP. Amazing, but nothing compared to JP Morgan (JPM), which has a whopping $80 TRILLION in derivatives on its balance sheet.

Bear in mind, these are “notional” values of derivatives, not the amount of money “at risk” here. However, if even 1% of the $1 Quadrillion is actually at risk, you’re talking about $10 trillion in “at risk.”

What are the odds that Wall Street, when allowed to trade without any regulation, oversight, or audits, put a lot of money at risk? I mean… Wall Street’s track record regarding financial instruments that were ACTUALLY analyzed and rated by credit ratings agencies has so far been stellar.

After all, mortgage backed securities, credit default swaps, collateralized debt obligations… those vehicles all turned out great what with the ratings agencies, banks risk management systems, and various other oversight committees reviewing them.

I’m sure that derivatives which have absolutely NO oversight, no auditing, no regulation, will ALL be fine. There’s NO WAY that the very same financial institutions that used 30-to-1 leverage or more on regulated balance sheet investments would put $50+ trillion “at risk” (only 5% of the $1 quadrillion notional) when they were trading derivatives.

If Wall Street did put $50 trillion at risk… and 10% of that money goes bad (quite a low estimate given defaults on regulated securities) that means $5 trillion in losses: an amount equal to HALF of the total US stock market.

This of course assumes that Wall Street only put 5% of its notional value of derivatives at risk… and only 10% of the derivatives “at risk” go bad.

Five Reasons the Market Could Crash This Fall -- Seeking Alpha (http://seekingalpha.com/article/153555-five-reasons-the-market-could-crash-this-fall)

[RVR800]

I wish I'd bought way back in January....

[Penguin68]

Maybe I missed the point but the instruments mentioned - MBS, CDS, CDO - those ARE all derivatives - their value is derived from other financial instruments. So they are included in the very very big numbers if the analysis was done properly, which I doubt. Some folks think derivatives = options but that is far from being the whole story, just one subset.

If the point was to demonstrate the scary leverage of the casino-banks ... well, yes its pretty scary.

The interesting part of the article is the bit about the rationale behind high frequency trading ... if the article is correct that's a new one even to me and I've been in the financial markets for 15 years. Its cute though ... a pretty perfect arbitrage by gaming the computerized exchanges for a quarter point - if executed properly. No wonder Goldman were so upset when that Russian programmer walked off with some of the code.

An October stock market slump would hardly be a surprise ... its almost as predictable as a bull run in almost any given January.

[Captain Smithy]

High-speed rail 'spells demise of air travel' - The Scotsman (http://thescotsman.scotsman.com/uk/Highspeed-rail-39spells-demise-of.5528031.jp)

When our corrupt Government is trying to destroy the domestic aviation industry what hope do any of us have? :ugh:

[heli_port]

Britain appears to be on the verge of economic recovery amid signs that the worst downturn in decades may be coming to an end. Manufacturing output and house prices rose and the service sector yesterday reported its strongest spurt of growth for 17 months. The upbeat data prompted speculation in the City that the Bank of England would give a further sign today that the economy is on the mend and end its policy of quantitative easing, the process of injecting money into the economy to encourage growth, which has so far cost £125 billion. Signs point to Britain being on the cusp of economic fightback - Times Online (http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article6740813.ece) Come on www lets see how you spin this one

[Greg2041]

One thing I take issue with - why are you only peeved about the economic management of the last decade? - this clusterhttp://images.ibsrv.net/ibsrv/res/src:www.pprune.org/get/images/smilies/censored.gif is the result of the ethos of self/no regulation and letting the dogs run free and it goes back to 79/80. Nouveau LieBlair was too spineless to swim against the tide but the die was cast by the 'Chicago Boys' a dead lousy B-movie actor and a dotty old lady from Grantham.

Penguin 68, you are right in one respect but people seem to forget that a certain opposition leader by the name of Dave, actually wanted further de-regulation. The suggestion is that things could have been even worse under that administration, if that were possible!

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Spin this one? Are you serious?

The next monthly UK unemployment figures are due soon - lets wait and see what the raw data says before we break out the bunting and organise a street party.


The WSJ prints this today:


The Bank of England signaled doubts Thursday about the sustainability of a recent improvement in the U.K. economy, surprising markets with a larger-than-expected increase in a bond-buying program aimed at fending off recession.

Prices of U.K. government bonds surged and the British pound fell after the central bank announced that it would expand its so-called quantitative easing program by GBP50 billion to a total of GBP175 billion. Analysts had been split on whether the central bank would add even GBP25 billion to the program, under which it buys mostly government securities with freshly created money.

Article - WSJ.com (http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20090806-717118.html)


IF ever I was a cocky son of a bitch its now when saying houses are going to go down, unemployment is going to go up and the economy is going to get much much much worse.

Lets see where UK house prices are in Oct/Nov/Dec this year and lets see how the unemployment figures look in Jan/Feb/Mar next year.


Its no suprise that printing £125,000,000,000 in the last 9 months has done *a little* to stimulate the economy. Shame the banks are parking most of it on reserve with the Fed/BoE....

Hyperinflation and massive Interest Rates for 2014 - someone print that and put it on their office wall and call me back on it 5 years on!


WWW

[clear prop!!!]

someone print that and put it on their office wall and call me back on it 5 years on!

That'll be to replace the poster that said oil would be $200 (or whatever) by last Xmas and that house prices will have fallen by 40% by now!....

WWW,

That apart , I missed this news somehow ....

The juxtaposition of my own sons birth

Putting the jousting pole aside for a bit, congratulations to you and Mrs Welshman and the very best to you both, and your new addition!....don't buy him 'My first book in economics'.. just yet!!

Regards

CP

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Why? My first book of economics said "oil was a sideshow, sell you house, get out of the stock market and don't partake in flying training" on the dust cover blurb.

If you think *I* ever predicted $200 oil then I suggest you point me to the posting..

House prices are down 24%, then up a couple of % (cue actual Front Page Headlines in the Express proclaiming a "new boom" in house prices :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes: !), and have another 15% to fall I believe.

Thank you for the congratulations.


WWW

[v6g]

That'll be to replace the poster that said oil would be $200 (or whatever) by last Xmas and that house prices will have fallen by 40% by now!....

Actually that would have been my trademark - not Weasley's. I was never able to convince him on that one.

And I still stand by it, BTW ... That within 5 years from now we'll see $200 a barrel oil. If you think that last years oil spike was a once-off that's history now then explain why oil isn't trading at $20 right now - that should be the middle-of-big-recession price, not $60-70.

[heli_port]

The Government made a £1 billion paper profit on its 70 per cent stake in Royal Bank of Scotland yesterday on growing optimism that the lender will follow Lloyds today in predicting that the worst is over for the economy. But RBS, the UK’s biggest bank in balance-sheet terms, is likely to adopt a more cautious tone than Lloyds. It will probably say that it has broken even for the six months to June 30, with strong profits in its investment banking business wiped out by losses in the retail and corporate bank. RBS’s shares surged 10 per cent, closing up 4.75p at 53.45p. The Government took a stake worth £20 billion in RBS in October to prevent its collapse. Last night, that holding was worth £21.2 billion. Government makes £1bn paper profit as market bets on healthy RBS figures - Times Online (http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/banking_and_finance/article6742153.ece) more good news... And I still stand by it, BTW ... That within 5 years from now we'll see $200 a barrel oil. If you think that last years oil spike was a once-off that's history now then explain why oil isn't trading at $20 right now - that should be the middle-of-big-recession price, not $60-70. I totally agree with you ...

[KAG]

And I still stand by it, BTW ... That within 5 years from now we'll see $200 a barrel oil. If you think that last years oil spike was a once-off that's history now then explain why oil isn't trading at $20 right now - that should be the middle-of-big-recession price, not $60-70.

Totally right.

[Re-Heat]

Interesting link of UK Airline stats:

http://www.caa.co.uk/docs/80/ERG_AviationTrends_Q1_2009.pdf


Disagree on $200 oil (and I mean in real terms, so with the exception of whether inflation takes us there), as on so many levels the $150 oil market last year was driven by speculative flows and not real demand. The market was in backwardation due to many people storing oil and creating short-term squeezes in supply, yet long-term there was a supply surplus.

Oil usage in the West is also a declining phenomenom. It is not particularly troublesome that supplies are declining as less is used per unit of output, and higher prices signal great capex, resulting in extraction of more difficult-to-extract oil in the long-term (eg oil sands).

A useful chart of oil prices in real terms (ie inflation is eliminated):

http://www.wtrg.com/oil_graphs/oilprice1947.gif

Read this to understand a little: Contango - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contango)

[Re-Heat]

Hyperinflation and massive Interest Rates for 2014 - someone print that and put it on their office wall and call me back on it 5 years on!
Careful, WWW, you only get that if the BoE lost control of monetary policy in its entirety, which is about as likely as pigs flying. It is unlikely that speculative flows due to high interest rates would push inflation up further, based upon the control the BoE have over monetary policy. That occurs generally where central banks are politically controlled.

Rates up for sure (depending upon QE exit), but hyperinflation just won't happen. It is a myth that generating inflation will allow governments to exit their debt responsibilities quicker, as debt rollover is constant, not at one point in the future (as is the case for homeowners).

I would also estimate that the rate rises would be earlier - perhaps 2012-13, and at that point they realise they need to get out of QE extremely quickly.

I am in full agreement with you about the pit we have yet to reach though. My earlier posts are clear!

[Penguin68]

Oil at $200 in real terms is not going to happen for quite a while because it will induce a global economic collapse just as sure as 20% interest rates or another freezing of the money markets would. When the inevitable terminal nosedive in middle east production gathers momentum you'll see 200 for sure, but 5 years? - the people I know who are paid to know that stuff dont think it will happen on that timescale.

The casinos that own oil storage are playing a longer game - the feeding frenzy that was going on in 07/08 and got us to 150 was driven largely by 'tards hearing that the oil price is going up due to increased chinese consumption+constrained supply and putting their savings into commodity funds ... way too late ... both the boom and the bust were inevitable.

Backwardation? - it was hypercontango that killed all the morons that piled into commodity funds 3-4 years too late believing that oil would get to $200 by now - the funds dont have physical storage - they play the futures market and cash settle, hence in the feeding frenzy futures prices were running way ahead of spot. Come the value date(s), spot was falling due to supply rapidly easing (thanks to the recession) and the funds and their 'tard investors got absolutely spanked, and deservedy so. They completely missed the point that spot is driven by real supply and real demand - or they just didnt understand what they were buying into.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

To ReHeat and Penguin - I know the market is not what most people think it is and I thank you for sharing informed opinion. This thread exists, at considerable length and effort, in order to provide Joe Wannabe with an informed caution argument.

Hyperinflation is still me call thus I am buying assets. From ride on mowers, to oil futures, to gold, to land, to reliable second hand cars. In the inflation rampant world - they were all cheap...


WWW

[Penguin68]

WWW - I'm not in the deflation camp - I think that is b*ll*cks. I just don't buy oil at 200 in 5 years. I have a friend who works for Shell in Canada who was worried about her job prospects when oil crashed - I told her that Shell know very well that it will be back > 100 within 5 years.

You're obviously shrewd and you're a big boy unlike the incomprehensible text speak yoof unintelligentsia on this board (who should never be allowed anywhere near a cockpit). Still, I advise you to be careful with futures - you can make the right directional call and still haemorrhage margin to the point where you get stopped out in a dip/spike, and then watch with horror as the underlying px goes exactly where you thought it was going. You need big enough balls and wallet to withstand potential adverse margin calls AND be right about the timing of the move you called.

When Sterling/Dollar a.k.a. 'cable' last hit 2.00 I thought it was a no-brainer, and of course it bl**dy was, but I wasnt prepared to bet on the timing of the break so instead of buying futures I rang FD and opened a USD holding account. I made an absolute killing in 6 months - but it could easily have taken much longer and thats a problem if your futures expire before the break happens.

Now with oil you cant do that - unless you own oil storage facilities, so if you're sure about 200 why dont you go long calls at 150? I don't have Bloomberg Pro anymore so I'm semi-guessing when I say that's probably out of the money for contract dates within the next 3 years at least and if that is the case those calls will be cheap. There's no margin - but you're risking every cent of the option premium you put up. If spot is below 150 on the underlying futures maturity date you're out of pocket. For every $ over 150 your payoff gets bigger - if its >=200 you can probably retire to Sandbanks before you hit 40 :D

[Re-Heat]

You're right - much is cheap right now, but be careful on futures as Penguin says.

All I can guarantee is that few of us will be 100% right in life; thus informed debate is key. However, I would be willing to bet that if $200 oil arose, it would only be as a result of inflation taking us there as I allude to above (an not of the hyper variety).

Gold - careful, as it is already in bubble-land

Oil - careful, as prices are derived from ton-mile demand and location of extraction. It is not quite the homogenous asset that land is...


Wannabes - still, don't start training for at least another year!!

[Penguin68]

Wannabes should not borrow money for training, period. Even if you get a job the financial payoff is just not there but the interest sure will be. Work first, fly later.

[heli_port]

Mortgage lending rose by 23 per cent in June, further bolstering hopes of an upturn in the battered British housing sector. The Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) said that the number of loans made to homebuyers hit an eleven-month high of 45,000 in June up from 36,500 in May. The value of loans made surged 26 per cent on May, to £5.9 billion. Paul Samter, economist at the CML, said there had been a &quot;welcome increase in transactions&quot; helped by low interest rates and &quot;realistic&quot; selling prices. Mortgage lending hits 11-month high in June - Times Online (http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article6791094.ece) Heathrow gets busier as July defies downturn Heathrow, the world’s busiest international airport, enjoyed its third busiest month on record during July, providing hope that demand for air travel is recovering. BAA, the airports operator owned by Ferrovial, the Spanish infrastructure group, said that Heathrow had handled 6.5 million passengers in July, an increase of 0.9 per cent on the same month last year. The rise in passenger traffic came despite a 3 per cent fall in the number of flights from the airport. A BAA spokesman said that aircraft were taking off with fewer empty seats because of fare reductions and because poor weather had encouraged people to take holidays abroad. Heathrow gets busier as July defies downturn - Times Online (http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/transport/article6790609.ece) Awaiting www upbeat response http://www.mysmiley.net/imgs/smile/rolleye/rolleye0014.gif (http://www.mysmiley.net/free-evilgrin-smileys.php)

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Sorry for the delay - lying in the garden most of the day thinking about mowing the lawn, glorious weather for a change and all that.


Sorry to say that you shouldn't get excited by the weekly spin put out by the Council of Mortgage Lenders (the clue is in their title). In a normal non-crashed market an average month sees about 75,000 housing transactions. Higher in the summer and lower in the winter but about that level as an average.

To be in July with base rates at 0.5% and still only be managing 45,000 transactions is pathetic and perfectly illustrates a crashed market state. Just because they fell to the mid 30's before slowly climbing to the mid 40's means very little. How's your FTSE tracking ISA looking? Good for the last month. Dire for the last two years. Torture statistics long enough and they'll tell you anything.


In the last early 1990's crash you had months when prices rose. Sometime sharply. Sometimes for several months in a row. But they fell more than they rose for three straight years after the initial crash. This chart shows how it looked in terms of monthly fall and rises for UK property over three years post crash:



http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/files/2009/08/housingslump.gif



We've had a brutal 25% fall. Now we'll have several years of drifting down. Then a period of failing to keep up with inflation so a fall in house prices in Real Terms. Then housing will start to outperform as an asset and then it will do well again. I'll let you into a secret as to how I know.. I checked the history of all the previous house price crashes.. cheeky, I know.

Oh, and one other thing, house prices have never ever ever gone up whilst unemployment is rising. Given even Gordon in his bunker admits unemployment is set to surge upwards over the next 18 months then is it different this time?


I wouldn't have a clue about Heathrows monthly passenger numbers. Never been there and hopefully never will. Could mean anything. Though seeing as its biggest airline BA is losing over £2,000,000 a day I would again urge you to suppress any champagne celebrations a while longer.

WWW

[Cows getting bigger]

Maybe I'm just lucky. I have just completed the sale of my house and made a 39% "profit" in a little under 6 years. It took 10 weeks to sell, made the asking price and was valued at 7% less than 18 months ago. I know it isn't exactly a meteoric return compared with the past, but I don't think I'm crying too much over it.

[dublin_eire]

Sorry for the delay - lying in the garden most of the day thinking about mowing the lawn, glorious weather for a change and all that.

WWW, is it o.k. if I call you the deckchair economist so?

Nice to see in recessionary times some are living it large. You may spout off all your economic mumbo-jumbo but I'm getting on just fine. Thanks for wreckin' me head though! Scratching it here thinking "am I thick?" or "does some man on a distant land just like talkin' :mad:"? Where do you get all the figures though? They mustn't work you half as hard as they should in your airline if you have such time to consider all the reports you apparently read.

[R T Jones]

Good old copy and paste a new story,
BBC NEWS | Business | Fed says worst of recession over (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8197859.stm)

"Fed says worst of recession over"

I'm inclined to believe that, however aviation is a different matter. Look at pilot recruitment to increase in 2011, I don't hold out hope to be pulled from the hold pool until then.

[Penguin68]

Cows_Getting_Bigger ... you were very lucky to be living in Scotland.

I sold my 5 bed detatched in the 'saarf daahns' in Nov 2008. Bought it new in Jun 2002 - not peak of the market. Didn't make a cent on it over 6 years. If I'd sold it 1 year earlier I might have made 30-35% but we weren't looking to move at that point. The people 2 doors away still cant sell theirs (been on the market 16 months now) despite knocking 75k off the price.

Factor in maintenance and cost of carry and its pretty obvious I got spanked. Lucky I made 80% in 4 years on the previous one otherwise I'd be in the poor house now instead of at the beach :cool:.

[Cirrus_Clouds]

FYI, as of today, been announced that France and Germany are no longer in recession, something like 0.3% growth. The GDP figure to be announced.

The UK will take a while longer, but the light is emerging at the end of the tunnel, or is that a 747? :ok:

[RoyHudd]

The light at the end of the tunnel is a beacon guiding us into the next and longer tunnel. Sorry. Wishful thinking abounds at the moment, which is normal. But the pundits who called this recession believe it has a long way to run.

And the majority who missed seeing this one coming are those who are saying it is over, and all is well.

Not a chance. Hold tight, and do not spend money on type-ratings, line-training, or even fATPL courses. Trust me.

[Cirrus_Clouds]

I agree, our turbulence will last a bit longer. I'm in no hurry, still progressing with Atpl but will wait for times to improve significantly before completing it. Things will improve, just got to be patient and not let impatience be your weakness.

[Bruce Wayne]

What might be the "light at the end of the tunnel" may not be the landing lights of a 747, it could easily be car headlights rushing toward you, or equally the light on the front of Gordon Brown's economic bicycle...

bear in mind...

"time to pay off part of their £1.4trillion debt mountain, while the Government raises taxes"

"King warned that banks may further reduce the supply of loans to firms and households as they rebuild their own finances; ... 'the recession appears to be deeper' than the Bank's own Monetary Policy Committee thought likely at the time of their report in May."

"joblessness has soared to its highest level since 1995. The Bank of England predict the level of unemployment will carry on rising 'for some time'"

"'Mervyn King has once again underlined how hopelessly optimistic the Government's assessment of the length and depth of the recession really is."

"in a further blow to the Government's credibility, the Bank said that this year's downturn will be even sharper than previously expected, with gross domestic product tumbling around 4.4 per cent, according to the Bank's forecasts.. That is significantly worse than the Treasury's 3.75 per cent worst-case scenario, again suggesting Chancellor Alistair Darling's March Budget forecasts were far too optimistic"

"Mervyn King warned that the recession is 'deeper' than officials feared and the 'mayhem' caused by bank meltdown will do far-reaching damage to the economy... the Bank predicted only a 'slow and protracted' recovery in which redundancies will soar further and more firms will go bust. "

Don't break out the bubbly and race off to an integrated course just yet !

[betpump5]

Guys,

I thought I would bullet point a few "Outlooks" from the CX Investor Meeting Document.

Cost saving initiatives (cont’d)
•Others
•Implementing a hiring freeze and offering voluntary unpaid leave
•Negotiation with manufacturers to defer deliveries of new aircraft
•Review of aircraft leases that expire
•Deferred completion of cargo terminal from 2011 to 2013
•Pushed back capital expenditure, eg. airport lounge renovations in HKG and LON
•Landing charges: various reductions at airports around the world including 10% in Hong Kong for 2009

Outlook
•General market
•Airline industry faces continued turmoil due to economic downturn.
•Seasonal nature of business means that second half is traditionally better than first half
•H1N1 flu still a threat
•Market capacity is down

Outlook
•Our situation
•Asian economic recovery still uncertain
•Demand and yields seem to have stopped falling but not started to recover
•Fuel has more than doubled in price since early March
•Fluctuations in currency will continue to affect our results
•Cargo prospects a little better due to a slight pick up in demand and reduced market capacity
•Commitment to future expansion
•Have not and will not cut customer-facing spend
•Pledged to keep network integrity intact for both pax and cargo services

Basically, things aren't as bad but still nowhere near good! It is still an uncertain world to live in at the moment. Best advice for any budding pilot is maintain flexibility if you are intent on starting training now (i.e go mod) or work and save for the next 18-24 months before you embark on an Integrated course.

By the way, I thought I would stoke the fire somewhat:

I've hard that the CAA will increase costs in the next couple of years for Integrated FTOs so an integrated course will cost even more. Apparently though, the loop hole around this is as long as an FTO has an "office" in another country, it can be approved by that country's own Aviation Authority.

Am I spouting BS?

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Guess what happens next:



http://www.agoralifestyles.com/content/files/mm130809_1.jpg



Yesterdays jobless figures were truly awful. The percentage of the population without work hit its highest for some 13 years, while the nations dole queues reached their longest for 14 years. The actual number of employed Britons fell by a record 271,000 in the three months to June, as even more people left the workforce than claimed benefits.

The 1990/91 recession ended after just 2 quarters. Unemployment continued to rise for 6 more quarters AFTER the recession had ended. The unemployment peak is the killer for airlines.

I'd wait until the UK recession has actually ended (and France and Germany are only parts of a EuroZone deeply in recession) and then I'd wait before unemployment started falling before I even thought about looking at commercial flying training. We are talking several years at least.


WWW

[Re-Heat]

Well, you've really splashed out on the economic modelling if you bought yourself a Bloomberg terminal, www!

Valuations in the area in which I live are down 40%, and have not yet stopped falling. :ooh:

[TheBeak]

I am not kidding when I answer this - believe WWW.

[smith]

as of today, been announced that France and Germany are no longer in recession,


Ryanair could increase their German bases, not in France though as they require union recognition but they could increase flight frequency to/from the French airports. A great day for european aviation.

Take my comments with a tablespoonful of salt :eek:

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

egnhflyer - you misunderstand my comments in brackets. Whilst I acknowledge that the German and French national economies have managed to post a positive quarterly gdp growth figure, this is not the case for the Eurozone as a whole which is still in recession at -0.1%.

I would also caution that the 0.3% growth was purchased at considerable cost to the tax payer. In both instances the governments were throwing cash around the economy and all spending - including government - counts towards GDP figures. There was a modest real improvement in Germany which was shrinking by 4% a quarter earlier this year. They benefitted from some restocking globally and the Chinese were buying materials and equipment for the massive infratsucture stimulus. The French figures were VERY much flattered by a blip in Airbus deliveries based on orders made before the recession. It doesn't take more than a dozen extra widebodies coming out of Toulouse for the French GDP figures to jump nicely...

WWW


ps I'm still saving for my Bloomberg Terminal ;)

[Cirrus_Clouds]

BBC NEWS | Business | Government to loan Airbus £340m (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8201222.stm) :ok: Lets kick start this industry with some positive input! :ok:

[RoyHudd]

Good news for a change! Presumably the government will print the £340 million, send it to Airbus, and get repaid down the line in Euros. Sterling is on its way down, I fear.

[dublin_eire]

Yay!!!

Down with Sterling! Come on the Euro!:p

[cjd_a320]

LONDON, Aug 13 (Reuters) - Thomas Cook (TCG.L) compounded gloom among Europe's travel operators on Thursday by warning it would miss its 2010 operating profit goal as economic conditions continued to worsen,.......cont

UPDATE 3-Thomas Cook ditches 2010 operating profit goal | Reuters (http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssHotels,%20Motels%20&%20Cruise%20Lines/idUSLC743020090813)

[hollingworthp]

Live in the UK, get paid in Euros ... defo agree with dublin_eire :ok:

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Tui are seeing winter bookings down 19%..

WWW

[cjd_a320]

JB007 gave the heads up on whats comming with TUI/TCG a good few pages ago.... :cool:


There will be a 'big' cull across most airlines...
There will be a 'big' cull across most airlines this winter...not just flight crew! For those of us on the inside of UK companies; it's starting now, unions are talking to management!


There's still no rush for wannabes ......

[egnhflyer]

There's still no rush for wannabes ......

That is essentially the bottom line that us wannabes want to hear and not all that mumbo jumbo that www and his darth followers spout out.

:ok:

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

egnhflyer - So I presume you skipped the - ooh - 5,000 words or so I'd written earlier in this thread in repeated detail about how and why there is no rush for wannabes? Perhaps you just recently parachuted into this thread with your half a dozen posts history and thought we needed some editorial input from you and didn't bother to read the entire thread? Who knows.

Oh, and if you find my laymans languaged-cut out and keep, guides to economics to be mumbo jumbo then I fear for your ability to pass the Perf or Nav exams..

WWW

[egnhflyer]

egnhflyer - So I presume you skipped the - ooh - 5,000 words or so I'd written earlier in this thread in repeated detail about how and why there is no rush for wannabes? Perhaps you just recently parachuted into this thread with your half a dozen posts history and thought we needed some editorial input from you and didn't bother to read the entire thread? Who knows.

Oh, and if you find my laymans languaged-cut out and keep, guides to economics to be mumbo jumbo then I fear for your ability to pass the Perf or Nav exams..WWW you're a mod so i'll tread carefully but if you think anyone that is reading this thread is actually paying any attention to your drivel then your ego must reach the andromeda galaxy.

Thanks for the encouragement of the exam front i would really hate to be your first officer even though i would love to work for easyjet.

Anyhow no hard feelings :)

(ps. just passed fp & nav with 100% and although i know these are not representative of the atpl exams i'll take it as a positive sign:cool: )gl

[superdash]

Germany was the hardest hit country in europe by the global recession as they are the world's largest exporter of manufactured good's. The german & french econmies were not hit by the financial collapse anywhere near as much as the UK & the USA have been. Germany & France having a small amount of positive growth is very good news, I disagree with WWW that the german growth is down to tax payer spending, it isn't it's due to a growing demand for German made good's. It's easy to confuse the financial collapse with the global recession they are two different problems although related.

The best policy for the UK government is to print lot's of money and spend it on things like Airbus. That will get the econmy moving again. They still need to sort the banking sector out though.

Who knows what's around the corner there could still be something to come out of the closet yet. But I think its reasonable to say that the UK will start to grow within a year or two. Maybe a good time to start an integrated course will be in 12-18months time.

WWW reminds me of an American Republican Official, ignore other people's views and shout them down!

Feel free to shout...have you ever been on Fox news? :p

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Whoops, thats not quite treading carefully enough I'm afraid.

WWW

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

I'm not shouting down anyones views.


Just don't get too excited by Germany putting on 0.3% when they lost over 4% in the first quarter. Take the two together and you've still got the sharpest recession in history - even though its now technically over.

Double dip anyone?



WWW

[superdash]

maybe your callsign WWW has some relevence here...truth is no one is sure yet if it's going to be a U, V, I___I, W or WWW

One thing's for sure we will all find out sooner or later :)

[WMB]

Anyone who believes the spin from politicans anywhere in Europe at the moment is in for a big shock. If you have a job at the moment, keep it!, even if it is not an aviation job. Use your spare time to train the modular way, do not burden youself with a huge debt at the moment. I know the good airlines only take Intergrated students(according to the Myth and most major FTO's), but when you were not blessed with a rich Mummy or Daddy to finance your training you have to make some hard choices. Do you really want to be a pilot? If yes, then you must make a plan to make this a reality. After the "credit crunch", the banks will be very reluctant to give you finance, without some collateal. So do you mortgage you house? (If you have one), borrow £60000, take a year or so, spend it all, only to be told by the FTO, that all recruitment is on hold, and they will call you as soon as anything else comes up! Now this will most likely leave you with about six months before the first payment is due,(assuming that you had 24 months payment free) and thats when the sleepless nights start! Next thing you know, your on your knees before the bank manager telling him that the Devil will let you fly for him, if you can just raise another £25000 for the type rating course.
This may sound very negative, but it is reality, and these are the choices we are all faced with. If you are only 18 then you have plenty of time to make these choices, on the other hand if your 30 then... tick, tick, tick,tick....
Just one final thought, people often say renting a Cessna at your local club, just to try and stay current, is a waste of time. From my experience, every hour in the air is another lesson learned!

I wish you all the very best of Luck!!

[Lafyar Cokov]

Having known WWW

[getoffmycloud]

WWW does bang on a bit but unfortunately for many he has been proved very right.... delivery like a brick to the face I grant you.... but the message has had its merits.

Egnhflyer... I must of missed the value you added to this thread other than having a dig at WWW?? If you have been barred I think the thread is hardly going to be poorer for not having your intellectual vigour... and the ATPLs are a piece of piss... have been ever since the Bristol question bank etc came about.... you don't have to be particularly bright to average in the high nineties.

I am sure the pilots currently losing their jobs will be glad to know that it is just as a result of the sort of "mumbo jumbo" WWW spouts.... which part of this recession is "mumbo jumbo"..... some folks on this site my be :mad: ostriches if you can't see what a mess the industry is in!!!

[woodcoc2000]

Since WWW and some others are rightly attaching the future of aviation with the economy:

I would say if you are entering this career you need to take a long term view (somewhat like investing) and of course you are investing when you go the flying school arent you?? Dont expect an immediate return!! In fact you may well experience dips and periods with no activity. and like in the market; maybe now is or is not the time to invest in flight training depending on what you think the economy is going to do realizing that recruiting will follow suit either way..

My hunch is that things are going to decay a bit with a long period of flat non-activity. just remember the people who are saying that they see green shoots etc all have a vested interest in saying so (estate agents, politicians, bankers and yes FTO's). Statistics are great; but these folks will bend them and only tell you the ones they want you to hear..

personally i say wait another year or at least till things are definately stable before jumping in..

[superdash]

WWW does bang on a bit but unfortunately for many he has been proved very right.... delivery like a brick to the face I grant you.... but the message has had its merits.


A broken clock is correct twice a day.

[getoffmycloud]

Geeez so the people who said the recruitment boom would last for ever were right..... you guys are so in denial it is pathetic.

This thread isn't about WWW it is about spotting the upturn in the industry... frankly at the moment with pilots still being laid off in buckets loads just exactly where is WWW wrong????

The industry is in the Sh1t up to it neck, T&Cs are getting slashed, people if they can find work are working for free, very few jobs around if any..... but no you guys just can't see it.

I don't give a monkeys if WWW bangs on about it the FACT is he is bang on at the moment... or do you disagree?? I am sure those being laid off by Virgin, BA, CTC cadets at Easy would probably bloomin' well agree with him!! :oh::mad:

P.S. Foghorn and Superdash.... which airlines are you working for?? Or are you both in training/holdpools just hoping WWW ain't gonna be right for the next 12-18 months.... sounds like sour grapes to me....:=

[superdash]

No sour grapes at all, I have a job that pays well and keeps me current. I just think a more balanced view on things and a better attitude towards other users is required that's all. All people on here can do is express their opinions.

Go and ask a Professional Economist what is going to happen over the next 2 years and all you will get is maybe this maybe that but this but that. No One on god's green earth can say for certain what the future holds. WWW and a couple of others seam to think that they are all knowing and frankly they have an attitude problem.

Things are very bad at the moment but it is starting to get better albeit very slowly and there is a long way to go yet before recruitment starts.

Superdash

[heli_port]

Japan today emerged from its longest and most destructive recession since the Second World War as government stimulus measures at home and abroad finally began to pay off. Japan’s GDP grew 0.9 per cent in the April to June quarter, with annualised real growth rate of 3.7 per cent, breaking a run of four consecutive quarters of contraction. However, stock markets across Asia tumbled because economists had expected the world's second-largest economy to grow by 1 per cent in the second quarter. The turnaround makes Japan the largest member of a growing club of developed economies that have managed to scrape their way back from successive quarters of economic contraction. France and Germany last week became the first major European economies to make the leap back, while Hong Kong and Singapore have done the same in Asia. Japan emerges from recession after year-long slump - Times Online (http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article6798681.ece) rejoice www!

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Superdash - a balanced view is presented here. The format is I argue a bearish position and others are free to argue a bullish one. Hence the arguments are weighed and read by the Wannabe readership in the form of a heated debate. Which for a text based medium is often one of the quickest and most entertaining formats.

As for your comment about a broken clock being right twice a day - it was people like you telling me I was a pessimist/armchair-economist/idiot/egomaniac/vested-interest two years ago when this and 'the other' thread about the collapsing economic situation started. Unfortunately for your broken clock analogy I warned of the house price crash, the banking crisis, the severe recession and the airline redundancies way way WAY in advance of the mainstream media and general consensus.

If you had been around in 2005 you would have been reading my posts of this being "a golden age of wannabeism" because jobs were falling from the sky like apples. Airlines couldn't recruit fast enough and anybody with a SSTR was walking into a major airline job the day after the ink was dry on their license. I was pointing people towards CTC and telling them to get their running shoes on.

But when the facts change so do my opinions - what do you do?


WWW


ps I note Rightmove have their monthly August house-price asking price down 2.2%...

Sellers drop asking price as competition for house buyers heats up (http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/money/property_and_mortgages/article6798312.ece)

[Deano777]

This is becoming rather boring now. This thread has degenerated into a Punch & Judy show, every page of late has the same content. It's dull.

"The economy is getting better"
"no it isn't"
"yes it is"
"no it isn't"

You have to be a retarded numpty to think that there will be jobs for wannabes in the near future. How long does everyone think it'll take after the recovery before all the out of work experienced pilots get re-employed? Give WWW a break, he's telling it like it is, there is no ulterior motive. If you all want to go and spend £80k on an integrated then go ahead.

[JB007]

Well said Deano!

You spend £80,000 on a fATPL now - your only option is to spend another £25,000 (not to mention all the small hidden extras...) and join the other dickheads paying to work at Ryanair...

<200 hours/fATPL, you're stuffed until at least 2012/3, get used to it and find another job!

[heli_port]

You spend £80,000 on a fATPL now - your only option is to spend another £25,000 (not to mention all the small hidden extras...) and join the other dickheads paying to work at Ryanair... maybe not Ryanair is to switch or close nine of the 10 routes it currently operates from Manchester Airport, blaming the airport's refusal to lower its charges. BBC NEWS | Business | Ryanair closing Manchester routes (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8205445.stm)

[flying_highover]

You spend £80,000 on a fATPL now - your only option is to spend another £25,000 (not to mention all the small hidden extras...) and join the other dickheads paying to work at Ryanair...

Sounds like a bit of unacceptable Paddywacking if you ask me! Think you've got a bee in your bonnet. Just remember at the moment British Midland are giving A320 type ratings for a similar price with no job prospects after 3 months. What's worse? The Dickheads at Midland or Ryanair???

[superdash]

But when the facts change so do my opinions - what do you do?


Get on with my life.

BBC NEWS | UK | Magazine | The popcorn route to recovery (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/magazine/8201997.stm)

[heli_port]

All of the main indices are off and i'm told by certain friends in the know to stay out of the market as this is only the beginning of the main correction! :eek On the plus side i start my type rating next month ;) Ryanair and easyJet spark airport price war Ryanair and easyJet have triggered a price war among Britain’s regional airports as the site operators fight to keep traffic this coming winter. Ryanair and easyJet spark airport price war - Times Online (http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/transport/article6799765.ece) ooohhhh my sex is on fire.....

[heli_port]

(RFE/RL) -- According to a new report by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the world has begun to recover from recession but the process will not be simple. And sustaining any recovery will require refocusing the United States toward exports and Asia toward imports. The IMF's chief economist, Olivier Blanchard, says the global recession had &quot;left deep scars, which will affect both supply and demand for many years to come.&quot; IMF Says Global Economic Recovery Has Started But Long-Term Future Uncertain - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty 2009 (http://www.rferl.org/content/IMF_Says_Global_Economic_Recovery_Has_Started/1803091.html) Finance & Development: September 2009 (http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2009/09/blanchardindex.htm)

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Whilst I was saying there was going to be a house price crash, banking crisis and severe recession in 2007 the IMF was busy saying:


IMF lowers U.S. growth forecast, no recession seen | Reuters (http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSWBT00678420070411)

Wed Apr 11, 2007 10:51am EDT

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. economy faces slower growth, but not a recession, as it fights off a housing slump that poses a continuing risk to the outlook, the International Monetary Fund said on Wednesday.


And a year later:


IMF: significant global slowdown but no recession &mdash; MercoPress (http://en.mercopress.com/2008/01/29/imf-significant-global-slowdown-but-no-recession)

Tuesday, January 29th 2008 - 12:00 pm UTC

IMF: significant global slowdown but no recession

Stormed by recent financial market turbulence and a weakening U.S. performance, world growth is projected to slow to 4.1% in 2008, down from an estimated 4.9% last year, the IMF said in its quarterly update for the global economy.

Financial market strains originating in the U.S. subprime sector?and associated losses on bank balance sheets?have intensified, while the recent steep sell-off in global equity markets was symptomatic of rising uncertainty, the IMF stated. But the revised predictions are still well short of being a global recession. IMF chief economist Simon Johnson calls it a significant global slowdown. For the major developed economies, the IMF predicts continued, but much weaker, sluggish growth this year.






And then we had the worst recession since the Great Depression.

Notice a **slightly** bullish bias to the IMF's predictions?



I'm with Ruibini - this recession will be over in the next couple of quarters. But that still makes it the biggest baddest longest recession since WW2. So then we get the painful bit. The unemployment spike and then the airline collapses/contractions.



WWW

[cjd_a320]

BA's Ashley Cowen, (GM of Asia, the Pacific & Africa) is not ruling it out ukdy.


Is BA still dangerously close to going out of business or has this possibility been over-inflated in the media?

We cannot say we have seen the bottom of this difficult trading environment and this is born out across the entire network. It’s not over-inflated in that we are still burning our cash reserves. That means if we don't do anything about it, at some point we will run out of cash and the business will fold. But although we have continued to burn cash, our actions have reduced the cash burn to around £1.4 million [US $2.3 million] each day. In August 2008, the figure for cash burn was £2.6m per day, so we have improved the situation.

British Airways faces up to the downturn | Business Trends | Supply Chain Interviews | ArabianSupplyChain.com (http://www.arabiansupplychain.com/article-2839-british_airways_faces_up_to_the_downturn/)

[heli_port]

see cjd_a320 that article has got me slightly worried now as i start a type rating with BA next month mmm ah well if they go out of business atleast i'll have an a320 rating

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Yes - its a foregone conclusion.


WWW

[Callsign Kilo]

see cjd_a320 that article has got me slightly worried now as i start a type rating with BA next month mmm ah well if they go out of business atleast i'll have an a320 rating

Good man, let us know how it goes :hmm:

[Ollie23]

see cjd_a320 that article has got me slightly worried now as i start a type rating with BA next month mmm ah well if they go out of business atleast i'll have an a320 rating

heli_port; I doff my cap to you for that, nice one. I seem to recall you backed yourself from day 1 on getting into BA and got a slating for it on here. Pulling it off in this climate too, jammy sod! Hope it lives up to expectations.


In fact here is the thread;
http://www.pprune.org/interviews-jobs-sponsorship/332168-ba-ssp-qualification-2.html#post4207837

[SkyRocket10]

see cjd_a320 that article has got me slightly worried now as i start a type rating with BA next month mmm ah well if they go out of business atleast i'll have an a320 rating

With a surplus of approx. 100 pilots at BA currently facing the possibility of CR, I suspect heliport is telling porkies, if not I'm sure the workforce, and more importantly the BACC will be very interested in this new development!

[heli_port]

With a surplus of approx. 100 pilots at BA currently facing the possibility of CR, I suspect heliport is telling porkies, if not I'm sure the workforce, and more importantly the BACC will be very interested in this new development! It's not what you know but who you know! Britain has emerged from the worst recession since the Second World War, new Bank of England figures suggested yesterday (see Commentary, facing page). Detailed forecasts published by the Bank showed that gross domestic product (GDP) will rise by 0.2 per cent between July and September, marking the first economic expansion since the first three months of last year. The Bank expects the economy to continue to expand in the fourth quarter, by 0.4 per cent, and sustain the recovery throughout next year. City taken by surprise as Bank of England&rsquo;s figures herald end of recession - Times Online (http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article6802722.ece) awaiting www's comments...

[UAV689]

jet republic just gone under, how many more pilots will that dump on the market now?

[Bruce Wayne]

A few and some unfulfilled orders on aircraft too.

Irish bookmaker Paddy Power offered bets on whether JetRepublic would still be in business on 1st Jan 2010.

[TheBeak]

If I'd known I'd have had a bet. It was a foregone conclusion. I truly offer the greatest of sympathy to any poor guy or girl who handed in their notice else where to join.

Are they doing bets for FlyDubai?

[Bruce Wayne]

TheBeak,

have to agree with you on that one.

It's not something that I would have looked to secure funding against. however, Popovic, President of Jet Republic is also Chief Executive Officer of the European American Investment Bank AG, an independent Austrian private bank and key investor in Jet Republic.

[TheBeak]

Yeah but to quote Paradise Lost from the JR thread:


Reminds one of the old adage about how to be become a millionaire in aviation......start with a billion!


Too true huh!

[smith]

Irish bookmaker Paddy Power offered bets on whether JetRepublic would still be in business on 1st Jan 2010.

Paddy Power also paid out on Tiger Woods winning the PGA after the completion of Saturdays round. The Korean guy snuck up and won by three. Cost Paddy Power a fortune, bet they don't do that again.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

In the last Uk recession major UK airlines went bust in the years 1 to 3 years POST recession.

Jet Republic went bust today - that's another 200 experienced pilots willing to start tomorrow anywhere in Europe whom your CV will be up against.

You're screwed.


WWW

[superdash]

You're screwed.


What is your problem? Why don't you offer fresh cpl holders some advice on what to do until things pick up instead of just acting like a tool.

[RoyHudd]

Get a job Superdash, and cease your rudeness. Any job would suit, shelves need stacking. Flying won't be for you.

[superdash]

Ah look another keyboard warrior.

Got a job take more in a day than a shelf stacker does in a week. Oh and flying is for me, thanks for the advice though. Even if it was compelte jibberish.

:ok:

[redsnail]

This is what I offered to a chap who's just left flight school.

Intelligent research is the key to your success.
You say "anywhere". However, most entry level jobs outside of Europe require you to be there.

Ok so where?
Africa, the Caribbean etc have historically taken on low houred pilots. Scenic ops is the usual first choice before moving onto twins/turbines.

How to find out who? Use Travel agents and google to find out operator names. Look in the appropriate forums for tips and tricks.

Bear in mind that there will be license issues as well as passport restrictions. Research before spending money.

If shifting overseas is not an option then for low houred guys, airlines usually hire low houred guys. There are some GA sort of jobs around but you'll have to hunt them down.

Which airline?
Spend time researching the airlines that have hired low houred pilots in the past.

What usually happens is that the experienced guys will get hired first. Then the low houred guys will get taken on. The trick is to get your timing right. If you apply to an airline that has already taken on a lot of low houred pilots, you have a chance but it's likely you've missed it.

The UK CAA places restrictions on the % of low houred guys to experienced guys. Therefore, you need to have your CV in place.

How will you know an airline will hire soon?

Scour Flight International jobs section. Clues to look for are jobs for sim instructors and or engineers. That usually means the airline is expanding.

Good luck.

[antonov09]

How mature of WWW to tell wannabes that they are screwed. And Roy for telling Superdash flying is not for him. Absolutely disgraceful and just senselessly mean to mock other peoples plight.

[TheBeak]

antononv09 it was neither mean nor disgraceful. It isn't bullying. It is a harsh fact.

Anyone who hasn't realised that we are properly screwed for a good few years is either incredibly stupid or rich.

Instead of the boring old 'you're mean' comments and the 'you're a big bad bully' comments how about offering a counter argument and backing it up. These threads have done well of late to be rid of the subjective, emotional crap which offers nothing but a fog in the way of reality.

I appreciate to some of you that feel the need to be wishy washy and offer your fellow 'friends' on here a hand on the back and a shoulder to cry on that when people just stick to the facts it can seem quite confident or even arrogant, but it isn't. It is concise, to the point and as honest as it gets. Listen or find out the hard way.

You're screwed.

Like it or not, it needs to be said. It is the best advice you can get if it leads to realisation of the fact. Then YOU can decide what happens next from a known start point as opposed to some of the airy fairy, pie-in-the-sky start points some seem to have.

Things are very bad and getting worse.

Of course one day things will get better but not in the next two years like some of these suggestable, desperate, foolish lemmings will have you believe that are beginning training now. They are like cows to the slaughter.

[lesgonard]

Redsnail thankyou. Honest, pragmatic advice, it is hugely appreciated.

I would venture to suggest that Superdash represents the majority of Wannabes who simply don't like the way 'advice' is delivered on this thread. Being likened to a 'desperate, foolish lemming' who is ultimately 'screwed' is I think, a step too far.

WWW do you honestly wonder why wannabes don't listen to you when you speak to them like that?!

I used to really enjoy this thread but it appears to be more or less dedicated to Wannabe bashing now. A real shame.

[redsnail]

Matt,
Ryanair are not a UK based company therefore they do not follow what the UK CAA legislates. While many low houred guys have been taken on, experienced people have been taken on as well. (all Brookfield contracts. A friend who has a lot of 737 command time has just been taken on, 5/4 roster and the base of his choice)

easyJet have not hired any one on a permanent contract, just the summer ones with a dribble of winter work for a few. (our easyJet colleagues posting here can verify)

When the economy picks up and the demand for air travel also picks up, just watch the regional, charter, lo-co, bizjet and other airlines hoover up the experienced guys first. Reason, two words, "fast upgrade". Also, experienced folks usually have a contact or two and keep their eyes and ears open and skills up.

Note, I am talking about permanent full time contracts.

[redsnail]

Regarding the "you're screwed" comment.

I came over here in 2001 and watched as a couple of aeroplanes speared into some tall buildings.
Prior to that event the European and UK airlines had been very busy hiring like crazy.

Then it stopped.

I got my ATPL* in 2002 and spotted an opportunity at a night freight company working in ops which lead to a flying job in 2003.
My colleagues were not so lucky. A few completed their CPL/IRs in 2002 and 2003 and then nothing. There were no jobs for them and time on the ground meant their skills deteriorated and IR's lapsed.

Out of the 20 guys that were in the class doing ATPL theory, only 3 others got a flying job. 1 is teaching theory. Including myself, 25% were successful. The others? given up. I dare say the numbers would have been slightly better if they had finished their licences in 2005.

*I was converting an Australian ATPL to a JAA one. Already had 4500 hours when I came over, including 1,000 turboprop.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Look chaps. I'm dearly sympathetic to the plight of Wannabes as evidenced by over a decade of moderating the two Wannabe forums.

I can do the 'constructive - chin up' posts all day long as I've had years of practice. I choose not to at the moment because SO MANY WANNABES ARE IN DENIAL.

The flying schools are doing strong business. Courses have not been cut and are full with just a little promotional discount. New schools are even starting up. People on the other forum are currently discussing which software to buy to help prepare for the CTC selection process.

And all the while. ALL THE WHILE the industry is slipping deeper into crisis, airlines are going bust, cutting back, closing recruitment or serving notice of consultation on redundancy. Even Monarch are looking to lay off 40 pilots and that's unheard of. Almost as unheard of as BA making redundancies.


To ensure maximum broadcast strength I have consciously simplified the signal.

If you're a job hunting Wannabe You Are Screwed.

Don't think I relish that fact. There will be the odd exception who lands a job. There probably will be a some opportunities to pay for a type rating and gain some work experience for token pay. But generally. Those who can only afford to go as far as the CPL/IR Frzn ATPL are screwed at the moment.

I personally know of pilots with > 10,000hrs, multiple commercial jet ratings and strong strong CV's who can't find work right now.

But this is not reflected in the attitude of many Wannabes who continue to believe that, for them, the job market will be different. For them, in a year or two, things will be back to normal. For them, its right to start training, or press on.

I seek to get through to them that they've made a misjudgment. If that offends you. If you read that as immature or sneering or unsympathetic then that's a price I pay for broadcasting an unambiguous and unpopular message.

Its a price I'm comfortable paying.

I have a Private Message inbox full of people thanking me for causing them change their training plan last year and the year before. They are sat on the sidelines of the present disaster zone keeping their powder dry. Its a nice place to be. I wish there were more there.


WWW

[FlyBoyFryer]

Sure, it's painful reading for people like me who are gagging for their first break. But bitter pills are always hard to swallow....

My concern is not with the cyclical nature or severity of this particular recession - it's the unfortunate timing. The good thing is I've returned to well paid IT work after completing training and sure... all loans get paid off eventually. Age and recency of skill are/will be major concerns.

Maybe this is why people "gave up" as RedSnail put it? All I know is it would be devastating to not be afforded a decent shot due to forces beyond control (at least by us minions!). Maybe that's why wannabe's are so defensive?

[JohnRayner]

I find Redsnail's stats post very interesting.

Really only 25% of their ATPL class went onto to work in the industry? Shocking.

I have tried trawling for post training employment figures in this industry (past the OAA spiel which seems pointless for a couple of reasons) and this information is quite hard to come by, if not impossible.

But then I suppose the uptake on courses might not be so good if it was generally known that your 40-80k stake buys you e.g. a 1 in 4 chance of a job.

It really seems to be all about timing, persistence, and the ever present "6 P's", of which one component is definitely coming onto fora such as this, and reading what WWW and others have to say, being as they are old hands at commercial flying.

Good luck all.

JR

[Jonty]

From a recent conversation: "75% of people who get a UK CAA class one medical never get an ATPL"

But sod that, I'm off to re-mortage my parents house and enroll at OATS right now!

The recessions over folks, don't miss the boat!





















:E

[ZFT]

I’m not sure how the current situation within SE Asian translates to that within Europe although traditionally this part of the world has been far more resilient to downturns and has tended to recover far quicker than Europe.

If our experiences here are anything to go by then the downturn is far from over and is still to reach the bottom.

I operate within an environment where (apart from recurrency checking) many pilots would obtain the initial type rating and go off to commence their airline careers.

The biggest problem 12 months ago was availability – we were booked out up to 6 months in advance.

Again just 12 months ago a TRE/TRI or a current P1 with sufficient hours on type could basically name his or her price with carriers especially within India and a few other countries which in turn stimulated the market and our particular operation was quite buoyant.

Fast forward to today and the situation is quite different – of the 35+ airlines we support, without exception all of them have cut back their training requirements, some by up to 35% with type rating requirements especially reduced.

The forecast for 2010 is no better and I would not be surprised to see another 20% reduction of overall capacity within this particular sector.

Traditionally we see an average 15% annual attrition rate so by inference there will be no requirements for additions crews within this decade as the surplus should be adequate.

If our experiences here are going to be replicated within Europe then opportunities for anyone commencing training now are going to be very limited.

WWWs advice does unfortunately appear to be very sound.

Irrespective, I wish all aspiring pilots good luck with their endeavours – just enter this with your eyes wide open.

[KAG]

Jonty wrote:
The recessions over folks, don't miss the boat!

Probabely...But:

In January 2008, oil prices surpassed $100 a barrel for the first time, the first of many price milestones to be passed in the course of the year. In July 2008, oil peaked at $147.30 a barrel and a gallon of gasoline was more than $4 across most of the U.S.A. These high prices caused a dramatic drop in demand and prices fell below $35 a barrel at the end of 2008. Some believe that this oil price spike was the product of Peak Oil. There is concern that if the economy was to improve, oil prices might return to pre-recession levels.

Times have changed. Hard to admit it I know.

[getoffmycloud]

Foghorn Leghorn I admire your optimism.... which airline do you work for??

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

From his posting history he appears to be ex-military, living in Scotland, a house owner who believes values have not fallen who persistently appears on this thread spouting bullish comments. He also appears to have been doing his ATPL exams in the last 12 months so I doubt he's actually ever had a job offer from an airline - he may not actually be a qualified pilot yet.

I suppose it can be quite hard if you've just left the public sector seeking employment in the private sector world of commercial aviation just as the worst recession since the Great Depression hits...


WWW

[redsnail]

Foghorn,

What package I took is irrelevant, if indeed I did take a package.

The post I made highlights the issue of timing. If you get the timing wrong and you do not have the funds to keep the IR skills current, then when the upturn comes, you'll struggle to get through the sim selection. All the positive words in the world will not help that.

Also, if you care to scan ever so higher up the thread you'll see I posted some practical advice.

:ugh:

[tom775257]

For some other stats, of my ATPL theory class of 10 in 2004 arguably during the good times:

Myself and Charlie are now A320 pilots both SSTR through the previous GECAT cadet scheme. I have around 2300 hours or so, it is looking very likely I will be made redundant from my UK airline permanent contract job (under Balpa negotiation at the moment). The company has not made any pilots redundant in over 40 years. The company Charlie works for is looking shaky. I have been flying jets since 2006, I still have £20,000 training debt, that was from modular fATPL and SSTR.

Of the GECAT cadets who trained around the time I was there, 100% found an airline job, everyone I know is currently employed, although that is likely to change soon. The GECAT scheme died in 2008 as far as I know, speaking to the woman coordinating the scheme basically they couldn't place anyone anymore.

Another chap, Ash, last I heard is flying the ATR after paying for a type rating.

The other employed ATPL 'graduate' is a PPL instructor and failing to move onto anything. As an ex instructor, I don't think I could have handled it for too many years.

All others have left aviation. Personally knowing what I know I wouldn't recommend any friends of mine to start professional aviation training at the moment, or for a significant period of time.

[KAG]

Tom:
Personally knowing what I know I wouldn't recommend any friends of mine to start professional aviation training at the moment, or for a significant period of time.

While I completely agree with your concern about aviation, and the job prospects associated, I am not too sure about the timing you recommend.

If a newcomer decide today to find a good academy to start his PPL training at the next session, to the day he finishes his type rating, 3 years will be spent.
Now you tell me that no airline will hire anybody mid-2012? If this is true, it couldn' t be because of the present recession, so tell me what would the reason be then?
When the industry is booming, this too late to start your training (like, in the present case, mid 2006 and after), because if you do so, you would finish your training at the beginning of the recession/or low side of the cycle, which would be in the presnet case mid 2008 and after.
In this situation, keeping current would be a difficult challenge, without any job and flying.
So finishing you training mid-end 2008 is not the same as finishing it mid 2012. You have to think a bit ahead.
During the past last 60 years many students have done the same timing mistake. Not you apparently, you are the very proof of what I explain:
For some other stats, of my ATPL theory class of 10 in 2004 arguably during the good times Of the GECAT cadets who trained around the time I was there, 100% found an airline job

If you had started few years later, when everybody was hiring, not sure you would have been hired at all.

Alright, my comment was just about the timing.

Otherwise, I am not overall too optimistic. Too many pilot student are trained, and the oil price will be a terrible issue within few months. We saw in the news paper this week that the recession is about to finish, and meanwhile oil increased, within the same week, by 15 $!!! If it doesn' t ring a bell...

[Grass strip basher]

Can't see how any of the proposed outcomes won't lead to more job losses.... dark days indeed....

Lufthansa plots sale of BMI British Midland to Virgin Atlantic - Times Online (http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/transport/article6806437.ece)

[BoeingMEL]

... but for a long time he has injected a much-needed shot of reality into this forum. This old timer went through 3 recessions in almost 30 years (none as severe as this one) and witnessed countless wannabees blindly wading into flight training and debt, only to discover that economic recovery was weaker and later than many dreamers and "experts" had forecast. I was taught in the late 70s.. "only spend the money if you can afford to lose it."

It seems that some things in aviation change rapidly... but some things don't change at all. Nevertheless, good luck to you all! bm :ok:

[tom775257]

KAG, while it has been a while since I trained, I would have thought it wouldn't necessarily take 3 years to finish an fATPL with a type rating from scratch. PPL can take a few months (with time for bad weather), ATPL theory 6 months, 2 months hour building, CPL/IR in 5 months with time for bad weather etc, then 2 months TR. Around 1.5 years I would guess if you pushed through it, two years most.

The other option would be to get your PPL done and hour build during the bad times, primed to pounce on the commercial training when the time is right through a modular route.

I seem to remember about a 10 year period on aviation cycle in a historical sense, so once the upturn starts, I would think if you start your training then, after 2 years you will approach the very good recruitment times, with enough time to secure your seniority before the next downswing?

Tom.

[spider_man]

From all leading papers:



Losses at Aer Lingus, the struggling Irish airline, more than trebled in the first half, leaving the carrier facing a "highly uncertain outlook".
”Aer Lingus expects that the continuation of the current market trends in Ireland and its other key markets will lead to further sustained and significant fare pressure,” the airline said.
”This dynamic and very challenging environment contributes to a highly uncertain outlook.”
Ryanair, the Irish budget carrier, retains a 29 per cent stake in Aer Lingus after two failed takeover bids.
Last month Ryanair revised down its full-year profit forecast after being forced to slash fares to fill seats on its aircraft.
Colm Barrington, the chairman of Aer Lingus, said: ”This revenue environment, coupled with an uncompetitive cost base, means that we must now take difficult but necessary steps to address our business model and cost base so that we ensure Aer Lingus is viable over the long term.”

[Cirrus_Clouds]

Yeah saw this earlier, not good. ... some major decisions/changes approaching for Aer Lingus. :suspect: Lets hope the good times will come back.

[heli_port]

House prices in England and Wales rose by 1.7% in July compared with June - the biggest monthly leap in value since July 2004, the Land Registry said. BBC NEWS | Business | House prices rise most since 2004 (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8226416.stm) over to you www

[clear prop!!!]

Now here IS something to worry about!!...

OK it's a long way off, but the new high speed rail line from Edinburgh/ Glasgow to London has been announced with claims that the journey time will be just 2 Hours!

Now, I for one would pay any price premium to avoid having to check in what is now nearly 1.5 hrs before your filght to be safe and avoid security hold ups plus, the faf that goes with getting to and from airports both ends.

Given that there are around 125 domestic flights between london's 5 airports and scotland every day, that number will be slashed as convenience drives passengers towards rail travel.

OK it's a long way off, and we all know it will be over budget and very very late, but this is long term very bad news for domestic carriers.

But hey, given this Countries ability to compete on time, we will all be retired and using our bus passes befor it's a problem;)

[JRFLIGHT]

clear prop!!!

I'd bet there would be a premium over the slow line. So air travel would probably be far cheaper. Those on business may take the train though.

[woodcoc2000]

hi all

i wouldnt worry about the competition from that proposed edinburgh to london high speed train. the government would be paying for that and if you believe in sky news (pinch or handful of salt) it would cost many tens of billions of pounds (forget the figure they said).. Can the government afford that? NO.. if by some miracle it did get built what would be cost be for a ticket?? HUGE.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

heli port, for the three years following the end of the last major recession house prices rose a third of the time in the monthly figures. Often for consecutive months. This time will be no different. If you believe house price inflation is occuring in a time of markedly rising unemployment with interest rates CERTAIN to rise strongly then you are believing in something which has never happened before.

Net lending in June 2009 for house purchasing was at a nine year low.

If a few millionaires sell their mansions and hardly anything else moves then house price sales data will show strong increases in average house prices.

This means nothing.


They are down 25% and they have another 10% left to fall in nominal terms. After that they will lag inflation and thus fall in real terms for several years.

Idiots tempted by current 'bargains' at 25% off peak bubble valuations are just cannon fodder.

Japan, is in a spiral death dive of deflation. The last quarter figures were horrendous. The Baltic Dry Index is flashing CRISIS again. China has stopped restocking. The multi-Billion funny money injections will run out early next year and the meagre GDP growth (end of technical recession bravado) will go with it. Back to recession. And this time a few redundancies, cancelling the Christmas party fund and putting people on short time WON'T be enough.

I've shorted the FTSE today over the next 6 months at £9 a point. This suckers gonna blow.


WWW

[Bruce Wayne]

oh and oil prices have risen and it's not even winter yet.

[helimutt]

WWW, I had stopped posting on this thread because there will always be those 'who know better'. Over the years on PPRuNe we've seen people come and go and various opinions.
Luckily, there are some who can see the wood through the trees. I, for one, wouldn't wish to put people off pursuing a dream, as i'm sure a lot of us have once done, but people still won't agree with you.

I wish I had the money to copy your gamble. (not much of a gamble I feel)

If you get this right, will the naysayers desist? Probably not. They'll still have their heads jammed firmly in the sand.

[spider_man]

£150,000,000,000 of QE (about £2,400 for every head in the country), 0.5% interest rates... and we're still in negative growth. They have no ammo left! As these funds dry up into 2010 and the government is forced to raise interest rates against continued rising unemployment, where will this leave the economy?

American banks continue to fail, foreclosures continue at a record rate, unemployment has by no means peaked. Nothing has changed since we entered this downturn! And yet stocks have already rebounded 50%!

Hold onto your hats :ugh:

[Reluctant737]

Muahaha come have a play around with the stock market, this water just keeps getting warmer! No black clouds here :ok:

[Penguin68]

"I've shorted the FTSE today over the next 6 months at £9 a point. This suckers gonna blow."

brave :ooh:

I agree its headed seriously south again before the real bottom and it ought to happen in October as usual BUT your downside is presumably unlimited (?) since you are short and the market is anything but rational. If enough fools think it will go up when Abby Cohen, CNBC etc. says it will it becomes a self fulfilling prophecy and they turn out to be geniuses. The summer rally WAS exceedingly hollow (in the US it was 70% HFT algos) but the volume (i.e. retail fools/geniuses) are coming back now.

Good luck. The safer bet is to sit on the sidelines until we're back to the March lows (or lower). It will be interesting to see if Goldman is brazen enough to publicly 'dump' the market in this political climate, having 'pumped' it. Of course, they're probably already telling their most favoured clients to short already and its interesting that corporate insiders have been heavy net sellers throughout this suckers (?) rally.

[Black Knat]

Several posters have mentioned how (UK) interest rates will HAVE to rise-could someone briefly explain the reason? As far as I am aware Japan had a whole decade of low interest rates when it's economy went pear-shaped in the 90's. Many thanks, BK

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Japan is a massively exporting nation and we are not. We will suffer very high inflation as a consequence of printing hundreds of billions of pounds worth of funny money. The only way to stop a Sterling collapse will be to offer an attractive rate of interest to the world. We will have high interest rates.

That's when house prices will stage their second collapse.

Anyway. Real interest rates are much higher than 0.5%. Tried getting a mortgage for less than 5% lately?

The debt-monster really will eat us.


WWW

ps Goldman are brazen.

[heli_port]

The debt-monster really will eat us. Not me i don't have any debts and don't plan on having any in the future. ps Goldman are brazen. best bankers in the world and yes they are shorting the ftse... mmm the other side of the 'w' is what we are all guessing at...

[JB007]

From R&N... (http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/387264-skyeurope-out-bussines.html)

SkyEurope out of business was expected by most I think, but a few more type rated, experienced guys for you inexperienced, non type rated guys to be up against!

[heli_port]

The total amount of personal debt in the UK has fallen for the first time since records began in 1993, the Bank of England has said. Personal borrowing fell by £600m in July, taking the total owed by individuals down to £1.457 trillion. BBC NEWS | Business | Decline in UK personal debt level (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8231135.stm) skyeurope sheesh who is going to be next BA?

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Yep - debt deflation here we come. Thats a disaster for any economy driven by increasing credit to drive growth. That'll be most Western ones then..

They will do anything to avoid deflation because so many people would fall behind the curve and be in a position whereby their indebtedness was impossible to escape. Once that is widespread then there is nothing to stop MASS personal bankruptcy.

Perhaps such a system reset is perhaps the solution.


SkyEurope is a decent sized airline and they've just put hundreds of pilots out of work. They will not be the last although I'm suprised that airline failure season has started so early this Winter.


WWW

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Yep - debt deflation here we come. Thats a disaster for any economy driven by increasing credit to drive growth. That'll be most Western ones then..

They will do anything to avoid deflation because so many people would fall behind the curve and be in a position whereby their indebtedness was impossible to escape. Once that is widespread then there is nothing to stop MASS personal bankruptcy.

Perhaps such a system reset is perhaps the solution.


SkyEurope is a decent sized airline and they've just put hundreds of pilots out of work. They will not be the last although I'm suprised that airline failure season has started so early this Winter.


WWW


ps 13 Boeing 737's so at 5 crews per aircraft you're talking in the region of 130 pilots.

[Barden]

Anyone reading or contributing to this thread who is trying to pursue themselves that the industry is on the rebound is living in cloud cuckoo land.

We've seen today another carrier has gone down with probably more to follow as the down period starts in the coming months for the European winter period.

In the UK we have Virgin shedding pilots, BA look like they may do shortly and some of the UK Charters don't look too rosy. These carriers probably won't be the place where most wannabes get their 1st wings, but experienced pilots tend to be given first place in the cue when airlines are hiring.

For recent historical perspective, after 9-11 the airline industry was in turmoil, it took a good 2 or more years before the upturn happened. This was against the background of a strong world economy.

Now isn't a good time to start training, but I would venture a year or so may be optimal timing.

[heli_port]

Airlines are likely to have lost more than $6bn (£3.7bn) in the first half of 2009, according to the International Air Transport Association (Iata). This figure - an average of $1bn a month - is double the amount Iata said in December that airlines would lose during the whole of 2009. BBC NEWS | Business | Airline losses 'hit $1bn a month' (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8231714.stm)

[JB007]

For recent historical perspective, after 9-11 the airline industry was in turmoil, it took a good 2 or more years before the upturn happened. This was against the background of a strong world economy...but I would venture a year or so may be optimal timing.

From someone who qualified during the 9/11 industry downturn in 2001, it was 2004 when I got my first job and before any signs of recruitment appeared...I would disagree 'a year or so would be optimal timing', i'd make it 2 minimum, maybe more, there is a HUGE unknown as to what the next round of recruitment will be like - 'Pay-to-Work' Morons or high experience 2000 hours+ only...

Keep an eye on Boeing's 787 progress, any furthur delays may just result in the UK market been flooded with pilots as certain airlines refuse to carry its surplus in a year or two. These will be pilots with multiple jet types and 1000's of hours...so much more to come!

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

I think the current situation is similar or worse than the 1991 recession. That time it wasn't really until 1996 that things picked up for pilot recruitment. Sept 11th was a two year hiccup. This is a major five year belch.

Things will pick up again at some point in the future. The question is whether you can keep your license and ratings current until that point. Many can't, crash and burn.

Pay-to-fly will make it different this time. I think experienced 10,000hr pilots will be of little interest to the airlines that still have a pilot recruitment need. Of much more interest to them will be somebody with 200hrs, willing to write a cheque for £33,000 worth of type rating course (specified training organisation = kickback). Also he/she should be willing to work on a contractor and/or seasonal basis with minimal employment rights and on a 'B scale' wage. Willingness to deploy to any one of a number of EU countries at the drop of a hat an advantage.

Mr, 10,000hr Captain with second wife and three kids in Cheshire may find his CV closer to the bottom of the pile than the top.

Which is scary as I'm far closer to that than I am to being a Wannabe these days! :sad:


WWW

[Penguin68]

Japan is a massively exporting nation and we are not. We will suffer very high inflation as a consequence of printing hundreds of billions of pounds worth of funny money. The only way to stop a Sterling collapse will be to offer an attractive rate of interest to the world. We will have high interest rates.

That's when house prices will stage their second collapse.


Right, but a mass outbreak of personal bankruptcy would reduce the money supply ... all that debt vanishing into thin air, and the assets being sold off at firesale prices. The 'funny money' might be all that's left. Inflation problem yes, hyperinflation ... probably not. And in any case, what was the alternative - don't print the money and let the UK banks except HSBC collapse?

I think the UK will be able to hold down rates for a while yet. Who is offering anything significantly better? They will have to rise when the Fed and ECB do it BUT a sterling crisis will happen regardless at some point in the next 2-3 years ... its just too easy a target for the speculators (unlike the dollar - which is China's problem anyway) - they'll get round to it eventually.

It'll be interesting to see the timing as to which factor really kills 'UK Housing Ltd" - rising interest rates (and with the credit spreads as they are now mortage rates would be >10% even with 'normal' base rates) or the huge spike in unemployment in the pipeline when the public sector gets shredded by the Tories. My guess is the latter will happen first - I can almost name the day.

Bottom line is that average UK living standards will be set back by decades and demand for air travel will adjust correspondingly significantly downards and so will capacity - including (albeit with a lag) FTO capacity. The die is already cast and nothing can stop it now. If the result is a long term cultural aversion to taking on personal debt (something that is still true in parts of Europe) it might not be such a bad thing.

Since I bought dollars at 2:1 (1.97 to be precise) and exited stage left with zero debt I can't wait to pick up a bargain 3 years from now with property 50% down from the top and Sterling at parity with the dollar :E

[Penguin68]

Pay-to-fly will make it different this time. I think experienced 10,000hr pilots will be of little interest to the airlines that still have a pilot recruitment need. Of much more interest to them will be somebody with 200hrs, willing to write a cheque for £33,000 worth of type rating course (specified training organisation = kickback). Also he/she should be willing to work on a contractor and/or seasonal basis with minimal employment rights and on a 'B scale' wage. Willingness to deploy to any one of a number of EU countries at the drop of a hat an advantage.

Mr, 10,000hr Captain with second wife and three kids in Cheshire may find his CV closer to the bottom of the pile than the top.


Absolutely spot on. But the supply of wannabes who can fund training, let alone PFT/PFJ will be drastically curtailed by the dire economic situation, so PFJ will be a temporary phenomenon the surviving airlines will exploit while they can. Evenutally the supply of and demand for pilots will come back to something more like a balance ... both at a far lower level than today and with far lower average pilot salaries. When that happens PFJ will vanish until the pilot supply gets too high again.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

I take your point(s).


The very necessary contraction of public sector employment will (I think) be the trigger for the second collapse of house prices back to 3.5 times average income. Rising interest rates will be the double tap.

I'd have let several banks collapse, yes. Its always framed as being unthinkable. Catastrophic. It isn't. But that's a whole different discussion.


You are certainly correct when you say that demand for air travel is going to go back decades. The very thought of the average British worker being able to afford a time-share or holiday villa in the sun as well as their own house in the UK will be hilarious within a decade. The second home was the preserve of the rich - the top 4% of earners - for all of time. Then along came a house price bubble from 2001 to 2007 and suddenly the working class all thought they could have a place-in-the-sun and that this was normal and reasonable. It wasn't. It isn't. Its going to end horribly.

Unfortunately the break neck expansion of the UK airline industry for the last decade has been largely based on this shifting sand.


Spanish Costas may be down 40% now. Just wait until the UK public sector wage slashing, job losses and further house price collapses kick in.


If this is World War Two then its 1941. The phoney war is over. Dunkirk has happened. The proper bombing has just started and the next couple of years are going to be sh.... unpleasant.


WWW

[Penguin68]

I'd have let several banks collapse, yes.

Presumably not the one your money is in? From a moral hazard perspective, thats the right thing to do, but its politically impossible.

the working class all thought they could have a place-in-the-sun and that this was normal and reasonable. It wasn't. It isn't. Its going to end horribly

Agree completely. And all the more so because a lot of those people don't see themselves as working class.

Spanish Costas may be down 40% now I'm not going to cry over that one as Spanish inheritance tax is brutal if you dont do your tax planning properly (and my parents didnt when they retired there) so I'm on the hook for that at some point. And I wont be crying over there being a lot less chavs and english bars out there.

If this is World War Two then its 1941

Agreed. Its going to be pretty traumatic for most people.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

With Tier 1's being sub 5% it would have been cheap to refund the lost deposits out of general taxation and be done with it. The rest was debt or debt instruments.

People in Iceland are still driving cars, living in houses, wearing clothes and buying food and all their banks went bust... But then the banks own the Government and the Government doesn't actually govern with the best interests of the population so its all pretty simple when you notice the Matrix.


WWW




"I care not what puppet is placed upon the throne of England to rule the Empire on which the sun never sets. The man who controls Britain's money supply controls the British Empire, and I control the British money supply,"

[Penguin68]

With Tier 1's being sub 5% it would have been cheap to refund the lost deposits out of general taxation and be done with it. The rest was debt or debt instruments.


Okay, but as we've seen, if you guarantee only domestic retail deposits some uppity foreign government ;) will use anti-terrorist legislation to seize your assets held overseas.

I'd love to have seen the goverments in London & Washington etc. ringfence the "real" parts of the banking system and let the casinos die by their own sword (allowing GS to convert to a Bank Holding Co. so it could tap the Fed for liquidity was particularly offensive) but that ship sailed last year.

Whose idea was it to get rid of the walls between the casinos and the retail banks, and in the City between the jobbers and the brokers? Those divisions were there for a good reason based on past market abuses. Naive ideologues like Friedman and Greenspan, and the soft headed pols who bought into their neoliberal cr@p have to carry the can.

[heli_port]

Baron Nathan Mayer de Rothschild WWW Here's one: I am a most unhappy man. I have unwittingly ruined my country. A great industrial nation is controlled by its system of credit. Our system of credit is concentrated. The growth of the nation, therefore, and all our activities are in the hands of a few men. We have come to be one of the worst ruled, one of the most completely controlled and dominated Governments in the civilized world, no longer a Government by free opinion, no longer a Government by conviction and the vote of the majority, but Government by the opinion and duress of a small group of dominant men." Woodrow Wilson

[Matt.V]

I care not what puppet is placed upon the throne of England to rule the Empire on which the sun never sets. The man who controls Britain's money supply controls the British Empire, and I control the British money supplyI am a most unhappy man. I have unwittingly ruined my country. A great industrial nation is controlled by its system of credit. Our system of credit is concentrated. The growth of the nation, therefore, and all our activities are in the hands of a few men. We have come to be one of the worst ruled, one of the most completely controlled and dominated Governments in the civilized world, no longer a Government by free opinion, no longer a Government by conviction and the vote of the majority, but Government by the opinion and duress of a small group of dominant men

But nobody seems to notice and nobody seems to care... (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yi6XV8yBFoU)

[heli_port]

Fears that Britain is emerging more slowly from recession than other economies were stoked yesterday with figures showing that UK factory output dropped last month. The figures came as similar data for the United States, China and France pointed to an expansion in manufacturing activity in those countries, while Germany’s factories were also highlighted as being in recovery mode. Britain lags behind in global race to economic recovery - Times Online (http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article6817802.ece)

[Grass strip basher]

I agree... it should be illegal to borrow 100k to train to be a pilot.... it boarders on exploitation of naive young starry eyed wanabees that need protecting from themselves.

[one post only!]

Topslide, wouldn't a dearth of newly qualified pilots due to funding just cause a correction though? If there is a dire pilot shortage in years to come as people stop training then T&C's will be pushed higher and higher in an effort to attract the available qualified crew.
This increase in T&C's will make the career very attractive again and it will be worth "investing" to get a job. Part sponsored schemes may then reappear with banks/airlines willing to take a small risk. The risk I guess would be considered small as the chances or well paid employment will be high.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

TopSlide6 - my view was the same as yours. That the collapse in housing equity release and the tightening of credit and lowering of confidence would all serve to restrict the numbers embarking on pilot training.

Its all very logical. Unfortunately I see no evidence to support the hypothesis.

The large FTO's are all pretty full. No small FTO's have yet gone bust. Groundschools ditto. The CAA stats show now significant dip in new license issues in the figures to date.

The postings on PPRuNe continue to demonstrate that there are a great number of Wannabes eagerly attending various selection days.


I don't know where the money keeps coming from but it does seem to keep coming.


As for supply and demand resulting in a future improvement to new pilots terms and conditions I'm afraid to say it hasn't happened before. The graph is a straight line over the last 20 years sloping from top left to bottom right. Time along the bottom, terms and conditions along the side. Full cadetships never returned after Sept 11th despite 2005/6/7 being years of massive demand for pilots.

Paying for type rating looks set to become the industry norm. Bear in mind the industry norm a decade ago was you stopped paying at your IR and the airlines started paying at the MCC point...

WWW

[Black Knat]

One factor that keeps getting overlooked regarding taking on inexperienced pilots is what happens when the accident/incident rate starts going up. There have already been some accidents that can be put down to lack of experience and the ability to pay to fly. Wait until we start getting some major, high profile ones when the media start getting interested, along with those who insure the airframes. Remember what happened to the rail network a few years ago? Things only changed as people started dying. Sadly that is the way things work these days.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

I think the whole experience vs accident rate is an equation that doesn't reflect the facts.

This year CFIT has been overtaken as the number one cause of accidents by pilots doing a Spanair and forgetting to set take off configuration or a Turkish and just ignoring the primary flight instruments and crashing on short finals.

I can't recall a single airline disaster or serious incident where the lack of hours by the co-pilot was cited as a contributory factor in the last twenty years in Europe. The insurers seem very relaxed about it. Low experience Captains is a different fish kettle because sometimes the SOP's or the manuals don't cover the situation at hand. Experience is the only thing to fall back on then.

Hours don't mean what they used to. With the highly prescriptive SOP's and the electronic monitoring of most airlines fleets then the ability to just operate exactly by the book is enough. Not that that is easy in itself. Operate to the manual, obey every SOP and even with 250hrs you really can't go far wrong.


WWW

[Jonty]

I would disagree fundamentally with that statement WWW. SOPs are very prescriptive and the as long as everything works as it should then 250 hour cadets have a framework within which to operate. Even at this point most are still in the crew room when the aircraft is about to get airborne.

Its when things are out of the ordinary that 250 hour pilots struggle. I was one of those who flew very large shiny jets with only 200 hours in the log book, and looking back its scary how little idea I had about what was going on arround me.

What most 200 hour pilots, who get to fly jets, have is the ability to learn very quickly. Most go through an extensive selection procedure and it shows, they are smart and sharp.

The same cannot be said of people who pay for their type rating, some of these people are just dangerous and have no business being anywhere near a passenger aircraft.

I don't think that accident statistics will ever pick up a trend of inexperience leading to accidents. Mainly because accidents are, thankfully, very rare events. And in the big scheme of things there are very few very inexperienced pilots flying large passenger jets. I just wonder what would have happened to the A320 that ditched in the Hudson had the FO only had 200 hours.

[Bealzebub]

I think the whole experience vs accident rate is an equation that doesn't reflect the facts.

No I think you are probably correct, but it is only going to take one major accident where a 250 hour co-pilot is involved, for the press to be baying for blood against those cheap and nasty airlines who place everyones lives at risk by putting boy scouts on bob-a-job week into the cockpits of commercial airliners.

Airlines would dearly love to be able to do away with the front end costs. Obviously they can't. They have been allowed to reduce those costs significantly though, by the introduction of low houred F/O's, pay to train, pay to fly, etc. In some cases the right hand seat has now become a revenue stream rather than a cost.

Insurers are relaxed because the advent of technology (Glass cockpit, FBW) has simplified the operational aspect to the point that one experienced pilot is risk acceptable from the claims standpoint. The regulator takes much the same view. Everyone is happy. Until that is the day comes that this is all dumped on the front page of the newspapers and on every 30 minute looping news broadcast around the world, when suddenly it becomes an issue that must be dealt with, rightly or wrongly.

[Penguin68]

HSBC have halted all lending to trainee pilots. If the money isn't coming from them then where the hell is it coming from? One Post Only is correct, and I suspect that your description of events is almost exactly what will happen

Its a question of timing - it will correct itself to a more neutral supply/demand position but not any time soon. There is a glut of cheap pilots and a contracting airline industry that still has to shrink further before it bottoms out. Unless the low-hour-wonders lose their ratings en masse due to inability to fund any further flying dont expect to see the end of SSTR or improving T&C in the next 5 years.

As for WWW's comments about the big FTOs ... let's see if the big 5 isn't a big 2 or 3 in five years time. One has been exhibiting clear signs of distress since last year. Two more won't be getting much business from the UK any more except the FlyBE tagged cadets with sterling having fallen from €1.45 to €1.15 and plenty of FX downside still there. The finance issue will bite hard but its a lagging effect and FTO capacity will ultimately contract to reflect both this and a smaller UK airline industry. The number of starry eyed children posting on PPRUNE is related to the size of the polulation only and has no bearing on the number who will actually be able to train in the future.

[T5 Mole]

Hours don't mean what they used to. With the highly prescriptive SOP's and the electronic monitoring of most airlines fleets then the ability to just operate exactly by the book is enough. Not that that is easy in itself. Operate to the manual, obey every SOP and even with 250hrs you really can't go far wrong.
I violently disagree with that statement, www. You are partially correct that SOPs have developed greatly, but the other pillar to this framework is also hiring people that have mental capacity and intelligence to grasp a situation and not let it get ahead of them.

Sure, aircraft are not only better built, more logical, and operated to better SOPs, but the fundamental pillar of strong psychometric testing and selection prior to training has been eroded in the past few years of self-selection. That is what makes the difference between the 250hr who struggles when the Captain keels over and the one who takes it in their stride.

The accident rate has not gone up, thankfully, but you only need to look at situations such as the Conti Buffalo, NY accident to see danger.

I further agree with you though that it is little linked to hours per se; as we all know, European majors have operated with 250hr cadets since the 1950s, as too have the military forces worked safely with new trainees.

[cjd_a320]

Still deflating.......

Budget airline Easyjet is planning to cut flights by up to 20% out of London's Luton airport.

The airline also said it would consult on a reduction of the number of flight crews at its bases in Belfast, Bristol, Newcastle and London Stansted.

The decision comes amid a row over landing charges at Luton. Easyjet said it would look relocate the flights to more "profitable bases" elsewhere.

The airline also plans to close its base at East Midlands airport.

BBC NEWS | Business | Easyjet cutting flights and jobs (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8235556.stm)

[heli_port]

Budget airline easyJet is to close its East Midlands base and reduce services at Luton airport by 20%. Budget Airline EasyJet To Close East Midlands Base and Cut Services From Luton | Business | Sky News (http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/Business/Budget-Airline-EasyJet-To-Close-East-Midlands-Base-and-Cut-Services-From-Luton/Article/200909115374091?lpos=Business_First_Buisness_Article_Teaser_ Region_0&lid=ARTICLE_15374091_Budget_Airline_EasyJet_To_Close_East_Mi dlands_Base_and_Cut_Services_From_Luton) oh dear www are you effected? :sad

[cjd_a320]

More Deflation....

FRANKFURT (Reuters) - Global airlines' losses this year could exceed industry body IATA's estimate of $9 billion as no improvement across the sector is in sight so far, Deutsche Lufthansa's (LHAG.DE) management board member Stefan Lauer said.

"We cannot expect a miracle from one day to the next," he said to journalists late on Wednesday in remarks embargoed until Thursday.

IATA, whose 230 member airlines fly some 93 percent of international air traffic, had said on Monday that the world's airlines lost at least $6 billion in the first half of the year as higher oil and jet fuel prices added to costs..... cont...

Lufthansa exec says industry losses could top $9 billion | Reuters (http://www.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idUSTRE5821DF20090903)

[spider_man]

This data has been out for some time now, but reveals the depth of decline in Europe. Year-to-year percentage change on revenue:

Q1-09 / Q2-09
Air France-KLM -12.2% / -21%
British Airways -8.4% / -12%
Iberia -15.6% / -23%
Lufthansa Group -10.3% / -19%
SAS Group -8.5% / -23%

Cut routes, frequencies and smaller aircraft probably accounts for some of the revenue decline. Revenues continue to decline whilst fuel prices rise.

Regarding the LH article above, IATA had previously predicted a $4.7 billion global airline loss for 2009 back around May this year. In July they doubled the figure to $9 billion and they now say even this is optimistic and will update their forecast on September 15th. It seems traffic and yields continue to decline and we have yet to hit the bottom.

[cjd_a320]

Lufthansa's Junk
Sept. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Deutsche Lufthansa AG, Europe’s second-largest airline, had its debt rating cut to junk by Moody’s Investors Service, which cited declining profitability at its passenger and cargo units.
The long-term issuer ratings were lowered by one step to Ba1 from Baa3, Moody’s said in a statement today. About 2.1 billion euros ($3 billion) of debt is affected, it said.
Lufthansa?s Debt Rating Lowered to Junk by Moody?s (Update2) - Bloomberg.com (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601209&sid=arFbr15JUjRU)

SIA
SINGAPORE, Sept 3 (Reuters) - Singapore Airlines (SIAL.SI) said on Thursday it had agreed with Airbus that the European plane maker will delay delivery of eight A380 aircraft.

Under the new schedule, deliveries to Singapore Airlines will take place between six months and 12 months later than originally planned.

Singapore Airlines, Airbus agree to delay 8 A380s | Global Industries | Autos & Transport | Reuters (http://uk.reuters.com/article/idUKSGC00327820090903)

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Heli Port - yup, I'm now under 90 days consultation for Redundancy.

Being *somewhat* bearish about things means this is not completely unexpected. Its still a potentially huge kick in the nuts though.

:(


WWW

[cjd_a320]

Sorry to hear that WWW. :(

Its easy to forget the personal side of the issue on how this deflation is changing people's lives.

This should really hit home the state of things for any wannabes...... :(

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Its certainly a feature of the profession unfortunately. Wannabes focus is naturally centred on getting that elusive first job. Unfortunately, even with >10,000hrs of Boeing and Airbus time and a decades service in the UK's second biggest airline I find my actual job proposed for redundancy.

There's certainly no other employer out there at the moment who would be remotely interested in my CV.


And still the schools are full... perhaps I should go back to Integrated instructing! Lets see, was it Power, Attitude, Trim or Attitude, Power, Trim?


WWW

[cjd_a320]

The schools will go through the same deflationary problems as we work through the next phase of the cycle when the "herd" reaches its point of recognition..... :eek:


If you believe your economic outlook, then maybe a shift into agriculture would be a wise option......

[v6g]

Heli Port - yup, I'm now under 90 days consultation for Redundancy.

I'm sorry to hear that news Weasley.

[cjd_a320]

More Deflation....

Sept. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Air France said it will eliminate 1,500 jobs and slash capacity by 5 percent in order to bring down costs and match seating to reduced levels of demand......cont..

Air France to Eliminate 1,500 Jobs, Slash Capacity 5% (Update1) - Bloomberg.com (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601209&sid=aaKMiNH_mPZQ)

[cjd_a320]

Sept. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Delta Air Lines Inc. and the other big U.S. carriers are poised to make more cuts in available seats as the summer travel season ends this weekend, capping the industry’s deepest retrenchment since World War II.

Capacity at the six largest airlines, led by Delta, will shrink 6.8 percent by year’s end from 2008 levels, according to data compiled by flight information firm OAG Aviation Solutions for Bloomberg News. That’s equal to erasing the domestic network of US Airways Group Inc., the No. 6 U.S. carrier by traffic...cont....

U.S. Airlines? Cut in Seats to Be Deepest Since 1942 (Update2) - Bloomberg.com (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601209&sid=a7P66SZPNBxA)

[chickentikkamasala]

Heli Port - yup, I'm now under 90 days consultation for Redundancy


Sorry to hear about this www. This news should really bring it home to people about the state of things...
And yet according to the Ops guy at my local flying club they have never had it so busy. It's madness, the world has gone mad.

[ZeBedie]

And yet according to the Ops guy at my local flying club they have never had it so busy.

Some people who've had their mortgage payments slashed are going out and spending the money, instead of paying down the debt :ugh:

[youngskywalker]

Or maybe plenty people at flying schools are enjoying flying for fun, not everybody is facing redundancy and not everybody at flying clubs wishes to become an Airline Pilot. Attitudes in aviation are very much focussed on becoming an Airline Pilot, it's all I ever used to hear at my old club..."So, when you doing the ATPL's then?" Seems that a ppl is not good enough for some!

[Cows getting bigger]

Equally, those with savings are seeing an insignificant return and have chosen to spend instead. The flying club I frequent has seen an 50+% increase in hours flown over the same period last year. Life in the future may not be rosy, but right now............

[cjd_a320]

You have to love retail ...... :ok:

Cash is increasing in value as we deflate, so the herd continue to throw it away....

The aviation schools I've encountered, always encouraged "flight rating improvement" as it was good for business.....

Greater fool theory, never seems to fail......;)

[Slick]

www, we are still very much interested in 100000+ hour 737 Captains at Ryan, however you probably know that.

Hope it works out for you and all your mates at Easy.

Best Rgds

[rogerg]

100000
Didn't think WWW was that old!!

[heli_port]

I'm sorry to hear that www but i'm sure it'll all turn out fine ;)

[JB007]

Attitudes in aviation are very much focussed on becoming an Airline Pilot, it's all I ever used to hear at my old club..."So, when you doing the ATPL's then?" Seems that a ppl is not good enough for some!

And then you become and airline pilot...and all you want to do is fly for fun!

Sorry to hear the news WWW, I'm personally expecting the same from my lot, along with about 50 others in about 6-12 months...so you wannabe's just keep spending that money because yep, lots of green shoots...

[heli_port]

The UK economy should bounce back next year but the risk of a relapse remains high, a business group has warned. The British Chambers of Commerce expects the economy to grow 1.1% in 2010, almost double its previous forecast of 0.6% made in June. It says unemployment will peak at just above 3 million, fewer than the 3.2 million forecast previously. BBC NEWS | Business | Economy 'to bounce back by 2010' (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8240410.stm) some positive news ;)

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Its the unemployment peak of 3 million which is the disaster and marks the pain peak for airlines. As I have mentioned many times in the last recession all the MAJOR big airlines that did go bust - went bust - either 1 or 3 years after the recession had ended.

This winter will see some unprofitable airlines run out of cash to burn. They will fail. Next winter will be the same story. By which time all economies will be out of recession and growing. Whoopee.

My job is under consultation for redundancy. Do you have ten thousand hours mostly Boeing and Airbus with the majority of hours in the Command column? No? Never mind, I'll buy you a coffee from the machine at the interview stage.

You would have to be off your tits on crystal meth to be training as a commercial pilot at the moment.


WWW

[Afraz]

Totally agree with WWW. You would have to be bonkers to start training now.

[Phantasm]

Afraz, serious question -

Did it hurt when it first went in...?



:ugh:

[Afraz]

Did it hurt when it first went in...?

A little not too much! From a personal standpoint its better for me that now is the wrong time to start training as it gives me a bit of time to save up.

[jb5000]

http://static.open.salon.com/files/salvation.128155724_std1221071276.jpg

Hooray!

Best decision you will ever make.. Please go and pass it on in the other forums, particularly those searching for £30,000 type ratings with no job offer, £70,000 integrated courses, or £25,000 of line training....

Beware, the zombie army is strong though.

[happyjack]

With the aviation industry in arguably the worst crises ever and thousands of unemployed, rated and experienced pilots unable to find work with more to come, ever decreasing renumeration if you are lucky enough to maintain employment and with SSTR and pay-to-fly schemes established I question if there will EVER be a good time to train again?
Notwithstanding the end of cheap money and oil prices certain to rise I fear the whole business has become nothing more than a glorified flying club for all but the lucky few!
Anyone considering committing their working life to such a situation really needs to take off those rose coloured spectacles and take a long hard look at the reality of 21st century commercial aviation.

[BoeingMEL]

My first commercial licence was issued in '78 and I lost my Class 1 eight years ago... but still trawl this forum regularly. For almost 2 years now I've despaired at the huge numbers of optimists saying it'll all be fine soon so I'll throw my £70k or $100k at a training course.

This last few weeks I've seen a growing and hugely encouraging increase in the number of posters taking a realistic view!

Yep, the worst is yet to come..and it may not come for at least 18-24 months, as www wisely predicted a long time ago. And when recovery starts there will be endless queues of type-rated and experienced (but not current) candidates for every vacancy. What will your FATPL and 250 hours be worth then?

HOLD ON TO YOUR $$ AND £££ GUYS!!

This ol' timer feels for you all... good luck. bm :ok:

[JB007]

Anyone considering committing their working life to such a situation really needs to take off those rose coloured spectacles and take a long hard look at the reality of 21st century commercial aviation.

Too true. I also think the worse is yet to come...this winter and the next. I would actually have to think long and hard if I would recommend to a friend this career from here on in...it goes far deeper than a 'passion for flying' now...

[UAV689]

hmm the last few posts have been something that I have been considering a lot over the last few weeks, will it ever return to how it was, are oil reserves going so low pushing up the prices to make air travel unfeasable in a few years time hence cutting a pilot career short...For sure as soon as interest rates go back up its going to be nasty out there.

I am 'lucky' in that I am not touching loans to do this, just good old fashioned working 2 jobs, 7 day a week hard effort, (hence 'lucky'...havent had a day off for ages...!) So if it goes horribly wrong I wont have banks after their pound of flesh for mega loans.

Have slowed down the atpl ground school, going to maybe use the max 18 months to pass all the exams, then delay the CPL until flying instructors begin to get employed, logic being

1 - i really want to instruct and teach, and want to be an FI, havent seen an FI job advertised for ages
2 - Probable recruitment order will be experienced jet types, experienced FIs, then 200 hr peeps, so may as well wait till those FIs that want to move in airlines do it and I fill their shoes, million dollar question when will the FI jobs start re-appearing...

While that slack is being taken up I think I will continue working my nuts off, banking 1k a month, any change left over from training will go on to buying a house or my long suffering missus a ring...(dont tell 'er that!:ok:) .

As the guinness drinkers say, good things come to those that wait.

PS - bad luck WWW. thoughts with everyone that has lost a job, keep up the entertaining 'jeremy clarkson-esq' put downs of the fools that keep OAT/Cabair afloat!

[RoyHudd]

www Good Luck. You deserve it.

Do not overlook the big holiday companies, as they are likely to be the last ones standing, and they do have periodic and immediate requirements popping up at short notice for experienced and current pilots. (I'm referring to TUI and TCX here, not the smaller outfits). Mind you, there's nothing anywhere until springtime, as per usual.

[BUGS/BEARINGS/BOXES]

Almost as unheard of as BA making redundancies


WWW where have you been for the last decade did you say? BA have had regular 'culls' of pilots on and off over the last ten years!


I personally know of pilots with > 10,000hrs, multiple commercial jet ratings and strong strong CV's who can't find work right now.


Are they rated on type the hiring airlines are looking for? are they willing to pay and/or be bonded for a conversion? are they the sort of person that would 'fit' into a particular company's 'culture'? The answer to all of those could well be no!

For wannabies that come out of an FTO with a good report/recommendation,they are not in that bad a place as long as they have the will and desire to stay current. Most FTO's have a recurrency programme in place to support the students that have graduated. many do not charge for sim time, only asking for accomodation costs, and charge cost price for an IR revalidation. And in this modern, wonderful world, if your last IR was on say a seneca, you can do your next IRT on a CAA approved sim!! No aircraft involved! Thats another 12 months under your belt! Several airlines like taking on the 'fresh' Ab-initios who have no illusions of grandure in the industry, and have not had their reputations preceed them, as can be the case with those pilots, hunting for jobs with 10,000 hrs +. As WWW knows, the industry is at the bottom of the cycle waiting for the upturn to come. And some of us here have seen that this industry can have just as quick an upturn, as downturn. Where do you want to be as a wannabe graduating? on the recieveing end of a sudden upturn. of course timing is everything!! that frankly, is still a gamble, whether in the good times or not!

There is a Flyer exhibition in London, Heathrow i believe, on the 31st of October. I would suggest any wannabies out there attend and hear first hand from airlines and FTOs attending, and get their questions answered. then they can make a balanced decision as to what they do next. Best of luck to everyone looking for jobs in hard times and for those who are thinking of starting out! Keep the faith and remember the dream! :ok:

[wiggy]

"BA have had regular 'culls' of pilots on and off over the last ten years!"

Really? We've got a batch of 70 odd just about to leave under Voluntary redundancy but other than that I can't remember any pilots leaving BA through any formal redundancy process in 20 years plus - what "culling" are you referring to?

www - sad to hear your news, good luck, hope it all works out.

[GBB]

B/B/B...

[QUOTE]As WWW knows, the industry is at the bottom of the cycle waiting for the upturn to come. And some of us here have seen that this industry can have just as quick an upturn, as downturn. Where do you want to be as a wannabe graduating?[QUOTE]

Rubbish, rubbish, rubbish...
What bottom? We not even half way there, so think before you decide to start advertising training for wannabes!
And oh yes, Im sure the upturn is gonna come booming... :ugh:
How about for the start you visit the webistes f every single operator out there and tell us who is actually recruiting right now.
PLEASE, do some research and alot of thinking before you decide to post JUST ANYTHING.

[heli_port]

FTSE edged above 5000 today. WoooooHooooo. Recession over... lets all start training!! This sucker is going to blow big in the middle of the last quarter. The market has got ahead of itself and the last poster is right in suggesting we are no where near the bottom. Make your small profits and get out now...

[TheBeak]

BBB, you are almost certainly an employee of an FTO.

For wannabies that come out of an FTO with a good report/recommendation,they are not in that bad a place as long as they have the will and desire to stay current.

Are you feeling alright? Yeah all you need is for the industry to miraculously improve from making a $9 billion loss to a profit, then all you need to do is get your C.V. picked out of a pile of 10000, then be invited for an interview, then do well on the day with a broken and miserable mind set and rusty flying skills and you are in.

Don't train integrated, don't think some 'sponsored' scheme is the answer and don't pay for a type rating. Life is a marathom not a sprint. Every action has a latent consequence that we may not yet know about. Keep your decisions natural, rational and logical. What ever your 'head' says, go with. Whatever your 'heart' says, ignore.

Do get a job elsewhere - in something that will perhaps add to your character if nothing else. Do save your money for the next few years - write off the big nights out for a while. Do not ever think flying is the be all and end all. When things genuinely start looking alright in the industry you'll have plenty of time to train from scratch and be well placed, probably better placed in fact, than people who thought it best to have their licences in their hand. This industry has much more 'inertia' than people give credit to. If it's going one way it'll continue to do so for longer than you think.

If you are already qualified, just do the first bits.

And nobody listen to the unfounded, unfactual, un-backed up, useless, biased, dillusional junk that was/is/will be offered to confidence trick by certain posters and companies.

Don't let these :mad: sell you a dream. You earn it. Patience is a virtue. Greed is the one snake that can't be charmed. Hold tight, see this dreadful time through and you can (not will) get there. Whether the industry and airlines are worthy of you is another matter. If you'll work for free then you are about the calibre.

[PITS]

Hey,

I'm deciding whether to book my stage 2 as I'm worried about the current financial climate and wondered if you guys can help with a few questions.

1) Is the bond secured onto an assest or are they unsecured?
2) Is there an age limit that they will accept you up to as if I sit tight for now my worry is I am 28 next year!

That'll do for now.

Cheers

[Dr Eckener]

FTSE edged above 5000 today. WoooooHooooo.

Recession over... lets all start training!!
I just hope this is a joke. Things will get much worse. The airline industry is not a long term proposition, high oil prices among other things will see to that. As soon as I find a viable alternative I'm out.

[waco]

BBB

Remind me....what is the colour of the sky on your planet ?:ugh:

[Grass strip basher]

Ah after nearly 2 years since the original downturn thread it looks like the vast majority of people on this thread have finally "got it".... doom and gloom everywhere. I can't help feeling that the industry will never go back to the growth it had in a market like the UK. The last boom years were driven by a one off structural shift as the low cost travel market emerged..... helped by a debt splurge the likes of which can never be allowed to happen again.

Am I more optimistic now? Well over the past 2 years since the sh*t hit the fan I have lived in London, the Middle East and am now sat here in Hong Kong and the world feels a lot better than it did 12 months ago. I agree though that the airline industry still has more cuts to bear.... too much capacity etc etc. Still too early but we are no longer falling into the abyss from where I am sitting. As for starting training? Maybe give it another 12-18 months and modular has to be the only way to go.... no-one coming out of OAT, FTE etc are getting jobs so why pay the extra cash??

[PPRuNe Towers]

For those who get a flicker of interest and pleasure from the testiculation of BBB and the like.

Use your skill and judgement to guess the effect of the following factual list on the job market you hope you enter. Then feel free to sign up with the FTO of your choice:

01/01/2008 Alpi Eagles
06/01/2008 Aero Airlines
08/01/2008 BRTJ BritishJet.com
23/01/2008 CST Coast Air
14/01/2008 FFP Prima Charter
30/01/2008 City Star Airlines
11/02/2008 VID Aviaprad Airlines
29/02/2008 Boston-Maine Airways
08/03/2008 BigSky
13/03/2008 GirJet
18/03/2008 DHI Adam Air
25/03/2008 QSC African Safari Airways
30/03/2008 Freedom Air
30/03/2008 Airclass Airways
31/03/2008 JAA Japan Asia Airways
29/04/2008 NTW Nationwide Airlines
28/04/2008 AAH Aloha Airlines
02/04/2008 AMT ATA Airlines
09/04/2008 OHK Oasis Hong Kong Airlines
27/04/2008 ESS Eos Airlines
20/04/2008 VCX Ocean Airlines
07/04/2008 SKB Skybus Airlines
05/04/2008 SYW Skyway Airlines
11/04/2008 SWX Swazi Express Airways
03/05/2008 Mihin Lanka
13/05/2008 AOL Angkor Airways
09/05/2008 EMX Euromanx
13/05/2008 FEA Far Eastern Air Transport
23/05/2008 Club Air
30/05/2008 SLR Silverjet
31/05/2008 CCP Champion Air
10/06/2008 Magnicharters
11/06/2008 Aerocondor
16/07/2008 Yeti Airlines
21/07/2008 Ankair
21/07/2008 One-Two-Go
29/07/2008 Riau Airlines
13/08/2008 GCO Gemini Air Cargo
04/08/2008 SER Aerocalifornia
05/08/2008 Avolar
05/08/2008 Nova Air
28/08/2008 OOM Zoom Airlines
28/08/2008 UKZ Zoom Airlines (UK)
09/09/2008 FUA Futura International Airways
09/09/2008 FGL Futura Gael
11/09/2008 Air Bee
12/09/2008 XLA XL Airways UK
15/09/2008 APKX Air Pack Express
15/09/2008 AeBal
17/09/2008 Dalavia Russia
06/10/2008 Galaxy Airlines (Japan)
09/10/2008 Lagunair Spain
16/10/2008 Flysur Spain
17/10/2008 LTE Spain
17/10/2008 Omskavia
17/10/2008 Interavia
17/10/2008 Tesis
17/10/2008 Vyborg Airlines
18/10/2008 Hansung Airlines
20/10/2008 Flysur
21/10/2008 Aladia (Mexico)
29/10/2008 Sterling AirwaysAirlines
31/10/2008 Air Comet (Chile)
31/10/2008 Kras Air
01/11/2008 Domodedovo Airlines
08/11/2008 Alma (Mexico)
11/11/2008 Inter Airlines (Turkey)
01/12/2008 European Aviation Aircharter
01/12/2008 Primaris Airlines
01/12/2008 Siem Reap Airways International
03/12/2008 Flightline
06/12/2008 OK Air

Answer A: These airlines are desperate to hear from you and FTO operators are standing by to take your call.

Answer B: FTO's are standing by to take your call amazed and yet delighted at the wholesale, lemming-like naivety they witness on a daily basis.

Answer C: I have ignored this post because these clowns don't understand I have a dream and the chance of a large, secured loan.

[Deano777]

That doesn't include the 15 that have gone this year

[Kelly Hopper]

Nor the GA operators!

[Phantasm]

Hmmm, I wonder if Mr Topslide knows Mr IRT's personal circumstances...

Information/advice/warnings are useless if those two magic words are unknown.

Fact.

[99jolegg]

Hmmm, I wonder if Mr Topslide knows Mr IRT's personal circumstances...

Information/advice/warnings are useless if those two magic words are unknown.

Never! Where would our worldly resident lecturers spout their unrelenting tosh if posters had to abide by this???

Sit tight, follow their advice and don't do otherwise without their unequivocal permission - they know best :ok: