Growing Evidence That The Upturn Is Upon Us

[Nearly There]

Just register a new account at BullionVault for him, that way he gets a free gram and costs you nothing:ok:

[Adios]

WWW,

Those are guide prices that have fallen. A guide price isn't market value. You can probably find some Inverness homes that have fallen in market value, but you'd need actual sale prices to use as comps to establish declining market values. Keep looking and I'm sure you'll find some though.

[DeltaT]

This thread originally had the intent of something positive, to give some light at the end of the tunnel. The title IS 'Growing Evidence That The Upturn Is Upon Us'. If there is no evidence, then let the thread go as all others do, and perhaps start another thread entitled 'reasons to be depressed'.
There is enough doom and gloom on these threads.

[getoffmycloud]

God this debate is pointless! Across the UK house prices are down over 20% from the peak and still falling 1-2% per month. This is a cr*ppy situation and to say prices haven't fallen in some small town in Scotland is irrelevent.

What matters is bums on seats for airline pilots and this is getting much worse. It is not house prices in Inverness that matter.... it is the UK average and the general health of the city of London.... it is here the majority of highly profitable business class seats originate for the likes of BA etc.

I think we are getting a bit sidetracked here.... did you see Easyjets Feb passenger numbers... think I saw something on the news says they were down 7% year on year :sad: Looks like even the lowcos aren't immune after all :oh::eek:

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Getting sidetracked into pointless tangential discussions of a heated nature is What The Internet Is For.. ;)


And to balance the contribution made from the Daily Mail, this from the Guardian:

Business Feed Article | Business | guardian.co.uk (http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/feedarticle/8387912)



Meanwhile low-cost rival easyJet ended a long run of rising monthly passenger volumes by reporting a 6.8 percent fall in February on a year ago.

Air Berlin also reported a drop in its passenger numbers, down 8.5 percent in a month where matching 2008 levels was always going to prove more difficult because a leap year in 2008 meant there was an extra day of business a year ago.

BA had said on Wednesday it suffered an 8.3 percent fall in its passenger traffic, while Ireland's Ryanair has proved the only gainer to date with a 7 percent gain.



WWW

[clear prop!!!]

think I saw something on the news says they were down 7% year on year Looks like even the lowcos aren't immune after all

But, like everything else, there's another side to the story....Ryanair was UP 7% in Feb with load factor up 3%.

No one can deny it's bad. Equally no one on this forum shout spout forth, with such 'apparent' expert knowledge, as to what will happen, as with respect, there is no one on this forum qualified to do so.

We are in uncharted territory and no one knows the outcome.

Some of the sweeping statements and generalisations, delivered with such eloquence, could well come back to bite one on the arse!!!


Ah!, just noticed a simultaneous by WWW who has acknowleged positive!!!... (all be it small) in Ryanairs figs!

[getoffmycloud]

Are Ryanair still recruiting 200 hr wanabees (honest question I don't know)
And to be honest 7% yoy at Ryanair must be the slowest growth rate for them in years. We must be just a couple of months away from them being ex-growth. Are they the only airline still growing??

Also I believe Aer Lingus has been publishing horrenous passenger numbers.

I think I agree with earlier comments made by WWW.... next winter is going to be a complete bloodbath for pilot recruitment.

[Halfbaked_Boy]

Ryanair continue to recruit 250 hour pilots, albeit feeling the effects dovetailing down through the industry. New guys are going into a holding pool for a few months - I personally know somebody who's been offered a place on the type rating a few days ago looking at a start later in the year, so recruitment is ongoing.

I'm sure it's a complete coincidence that Ryanair's continued growth has something to do with the fact there are no lower fares in the world on similar routes... Charles Darwin and all that...

Good luck to them - morals or no morals, when we hit a bridge like this, there comes a time when customer service must strike a very, very fine line with minimising costs and maximising revenue. It's that, or the extinction of the business.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

And all those lovely new Boeings coming to coincide with the growth.


WWW

[Halfbaked_Boy]

Haha yeah :rolleyes:

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

What you have to ask yourself and decide upon is where are we on the graph below?


http://dshort.com/charts/bears/four-bears-large.gif


Base your decisions on where you think we are. Thats the sort of rational, justifiable strategy that a commercial pilot could stand up in court and defend his decision based upon...


WWW

[Blindside]

www interesting, good graphs thanks.

[quant]

actually that graph really puts things into perspective :eek:

http://****.photobucket.com/albums/tt88/quant_2009/GDP.jpg

[Phantasm]

Note, I'm travel'l'ing on March 9th; my usual update may be delayed.

Thank God for that - we might actually get some peace and quiet for once... :rolleyes:

[Grass strip basher]

THE chief executive of Aer Lingus, Dermot Mannion, expects only 15 of Europe's 30 airlines to be in business by the end of the recession.....:sad:

Half of Europe's airlines 'will go out of business' - Irish, Business - Independent.ie (http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/half-of-europes-airlines-will-go-out-of-business-1665663.html)

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Spains ndustrial output has fallen 24%. 352,000 people have lost their jobs in two months. The BBVA (massive Spanish bank which is the 7th largest financial institution in the Western world) expects unemployment to reach 20% - 4.5m.


Now.


There's so much data and so much going on in the world that its all just too much to take in. Yet a Wannabe need only consider the above situation in Spain. Spain has Vueling\Click, Iberia, Spanair, Air Europa, Air Nostrum, Iberworld, and a couple of small airlines plus the based aircraft of Air Berlin, Ryanair and easyJet.

You're talking several thousand pilots in significant airlines.

You simply cannot lose a quarter of your economy and have a fifth of your population unemployed and expect the airline sector to carry on as normal. Yet so far we've seen little in the way of cutbacks and nothing as far as bankruptcy. But how long do you think it will be until we do? What scale of retrenchment would look roughly appropriate? 5%? 15%? 25%?

Will there be many hundreds or a few thousand pilots out of work as a result of just the appropriate Spanish retrenchment? Do all of them speak some English and have the right to live and work in the UK?

Those are the sort of questions Wannabes need to be asking themselves.


Summer booking revenue will keep the plates spinning until the winter. Plan on a very harsh winter though. And a lot of broken plates..


WWW

[Alex Whittingham]

30 airlines? Where did he get that from?

A quick check of Wiki (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_airlines_of_Europe#.C2.A0Albania) shows 847 airlines in Europe.

[Grass strip basher]

I would guess he means "major" carriers.... or is perhaps just trying to emphasize the scale of this downturn.... given he runs a flag carrier (albeit for a country who's economy is a complete car crash) one would think he is perhaps better informed than most.

[Grass strip basher]

Surprised no one posted this.... upaid leave for "up to 2 years".... the length of the leave is eye catching... this is not just a couple of months...... perhaps tells you something about what SIA management think about the length and depth of this crisis... I say again you would have to be a numpty to do a IR/ME now.....:ugh:

SINGAPORE, March 11 (Reuters) - Singapore Airlines (SIAL.SI), the world's biggest airline by market value, has asked staff to take unpaid leave for up to two years in a bid to reduce costs.

The scheme, which is voluntary, applies to the carrier's 14,000 employees, the Straits Times newspaper said on Wednesday.

An SIA spokesman confirmed the report when contacted by Reuters.

The Singapore carrier, which last month announced plans to cut its capacity by 11 percent and has grounded 17 of its 100-plus aircraft, has already asked pilots at its cargo arm to volunteer for unpaid leave. [ID:nSIN378742]

The carrier said last month its quarterly profit fell 43 percent, hurt by hedging losses and slowing demand for travel and cargo.

[quant]

I'm sorry to say chaps that www dire predictions are coming true. Here are a few stories i came across this morning:

Aer Lingus angers rival with profit warning (http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/transport/article5887591.ece)

BAA cargo traffic dives 21% on economic slump (http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/transport/article5879461.ece)

The airline industry was shrouded in gloom yesterday as carriers revealed plunging profits or cuts in services. Lufthansa, one of the world's largest airlines, said that net profits had fallen by 64 per cent to €599 million last year and that this year would be even worse. Cathay Pacific, the Hong Kong-based airline, said that it had lost $1 billion (£724 million) in the second half of last year.
Air France-KLM revealed that it would cut its services by 3.4 per cent this summer because of lower passenger demand. This week, Delta, the American carrier, said that it would cut international capacity by an extra 10 per cent from September.
— Air Asia X yesterday provided a rare bright spot in aviation as it began low-cost flights to Malaysia, offering fares from London for as little as £99 one way to Kuala Lumpur.
The flights, out of Stansted, will connect with Air Asia's regional network in Malaysia, Thailand and Singapore.


Aer Lingus admission of losses angers Michael O'Leary - Times Online (http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/transport/article5890641.ece)

:(

[TheBeak]

This is that 3-4 month delay I was talking about and it is going to get much worse. But what on Earth can we do if we have just qualified with a CPL/IR? I really do not think a Ryanair type rating is the answer, 500 hours on a 737 is not going to help anyone, especially at £30000 for the opportunity. Being on one of those contracts could be killer, just look at what happened to the BMW Mini employees. And people are still kidding themselves I see in other forums that they are going to get 3-5000 Euros a month. DREAM ON. Sure people will always need to travel by air but not to the extent they were in the previous years for a long time. People had too much spare cash before - not anymore. And going abroad isn't an option either......I wish I had never done this......

[Grass strip basher]

Don't worry though Ryanairs passenger numbers where up 7% yoy in Feb.... that must mean there will be loads of jobs!!:D

[JB007]

quant

So still going to spend money on a Frozen ATPL!?!

I'm sorry to say chaps that www dire predictions are coming true.

With #2077 (2078 now!) post's on this thread, at what point did you think this was idle rubbish? The trend of the legacy airlines (i.e. High Cost Airlines) may spread to the UK by October/November this year. If Virgin and BA start offering unpaid leave to experienced pilots, how good is your £50k investment into a fATPL looking?!?

Don't do it...you're off your trolley!!!

[quant]

at what point did you think this was idle rubbish?JB i've never thought it was idle rubbish http://static.pprune.org/images/smilies/wink2.gif I'm an optimist and well what goes down must go up http://static.pprune.org/images/smilies/tongue.gif but only now am i beginning to understand the true nature of this downturn http://static.pprune.org/images/smilies/nerd.gif

Fortune favours the bold http://static.pprune.org/images/smilies/thumbs.gif

[plumponpies]

"Fortune favours the bold"...............................equally true. "A fool and his money are easily parted."

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Looks like I've won over a Wannabe - that didn't take tooooooo much effort then ;-)


I'm all for a follow-your-dreams ****-or-bust now-or-never attitude because without it non of us would have dared take a step up the steep sides of MtCommercialPilot. I honestly hate to be the one hammering in Stop, Despair, There Be Dragons! warning signs on all the pathways. It gives me no pleasure and does nothing to assuage my own career concerns..


Nevertheless there are hoards of flip-flop wearing idiots strolling up the mountain trail with nary-a-care for the forecast or current conditions.. I'll be manning the big yellow helicopter later as their predicament overcomes them and the tears flow.

The situation is grave. Look at the likes of Aer Lingus and their recent result as a coalmine canary. It won't get better and it cant and wont go on.. 2000hrs is going to be the new 200hrs in 2010.

WWW

[TheBeak]

The more sugestable people out their though can't be blamed when you have the apparently more desrable FTOs 'predicting' (said in the loosest sense of the word) that the need for pilots is going to be greater than ever into 2009/2010......Don't be an idiot and don't believe the crap. And as has been said, 500 hours on any airliner is going to make f all difference to your career unless you MAYBE want to earn £500 a month flying out in the middle of nowhere - not really a runner when you have £1200 a month after tax to service for 8 years.

[daveyb]

WWW

Nevertheless there are hoards of flip-flop wearing idiots strolling up the mountain trail with nary-a-care for the forecast or current conditions.. I'll be manning the big yellow helicopter later as their predicament overcomes them and the tears flow.

I no the feeling mainy a time gone hill walking/climbing and some moron gets out of his car wearing timberland boots levi jeans&matching denin jacket and not a care in the world.(untill there near the summit and a front has moved in).

I think THEBEAK has got it right about these FTO around europe&usa* saying there will be an upturn 2010 utter crap.

Another piont about these so called wannabe why would they get them selves in to such bad debt,(buy a house things get bad rent a room) i have worked in the transport industry for over 13 years and when making a decison i stand back and get the big picture gather all the info i can before making a decision simple.

And yes i suspose im a wannabe (doing ppl at the moment) while in employment and if i make it to fATPL even better if i dont well i can say i gave it a shot (god loves a trier)

[JB007]

From Forbes Magazine: Interesting reading, especially the last paragraph of latest new billionaires and how they did it. The losses are HUGE, especially the boss of AIG - aviation related? Well..Warren Buffet own's NJE's I suppose...

It's been a tough year for the richest people in the world. Last year there were 1,125 billionaires. This year there are just 793 people rich enough to make our list.

The world has become a wealth wasteland. Like the rest of us, the richest people in the world have endured a financial disaster over the past year. Today there are 793 people on our list of the World's Billionaires, a 30% decline from a year ago.

Of the 1,125 billionaires who made last year's ranking, 373 fell off the list--355 from declining fortunes and 18 who died. There are 38 newcomers, plus three moguls who returned to the list after regaining their 10-figure fortunes. It is the first time since 2003 that the world has had a net loss in the number of billionaires.

The world's richest are also a lot poorer. Their collective net worth is $2.4 trillion, down $2 trillion from a year ago. Their average net worth fell 23% to $3 billion. The last time the average was that low was in 2003.

Bill Gates lost $18 billion but regained his title as the world's richest man. Warren Buffett, last year's No. 1, saw his fortune decline $25 billion as shares of Berkshire Hathaway (nyse: BRK.A - news - people ) fell nearly 50% in 12 months, but he still managed to slip just one spot to No. 2. Mexican telecom titan Carlos Slim Helú also lost $25 billion and dropped one spot to No. 3.

It was hard to avoid the carnage, whether you were in stocks, commodities, real estate or technology. Even people running profitable businesses were hammered by frozen credit markets, weak consumer spending or declining currencies.

The biggest loser in the world this year, by dollars, was last year's biggest gainer. India's Anil Ambani lost $32 billion--76% of his fortune--as shares of his Reliance Communications, Reliance Power and Reliance Capital all collapsed.

Ambani is one of 24 Indian billionaires, all but one of whom are poorer than a year ago. Another 29 Indians lost their billionaire status entirely as India's stock market tumbled 44% in the past year and the Indian rupee depreciated 18% against the dollar. It is no longer the top spot in Asia for billionaires, ceding that title to China, which has 28.

Russia became the epicenter of the world's commodities bust, dropping 55 billionaires--two-thirds of its 2008 crop. Among them: Dmitry Pumpyansky, an industrialist from the resource-rich Ural mountain region, who lost $5 billion as shares of his pipe producer, TMK, sank 84%. Also gone is Vasily Anisimov, father of Moscow's Paris Hilton, Anna Anisimova, who lost $3.2 billion as the value of his Metalloinvest Holding, one of Russia's largest ore mining and processing firms, fell along with his real estate holdings.

Twelve months ago Moscow overtook New York as the billionaire capital of the world, with 74 tycoons to New York's 71. Today there are 27 in Moscow and 55 in New York.

After slipping in recent years, the U.S. is regaining its dominance as a repository of wealth. Americans account for 44% of the money and 45% of the list's slots, up seven and three percentage points from last year, respectively. Still, it has 110 fewer billionaires than a year ago.

Those with ties to Wall Street were particularly hard hit. Former head of AIG (nyse: AIG - news - people ) Maurice (Hank) Greenberg saw his $1.9 billion fortune nearly wiped out after the insurance behemoth had to be bailed out by the U.S. government. Today Greenberg is worth less than $100 million. Former Citigroup (nyse: C - news - people ) Chairman Sandy Weill also falls from the ranks.

Last year there were 39 American billionaire hedge fund managers; this year there are 28. Twelve American private equity tycoons dropped out of the billionaire ranks.

Blackstone Group's (nyse: BX - news - people ) Stephen Schwarzman, who lost $4 billion, and Kohlberg Kravis & Roberts' Henry Kravis, who lost $2.5 billion, retain their billionaire status despite their weaker fortunes.

Worldwide, 80 of the 355 drop-offs from last year's list had fortunes derived from finance or investments.

While 656 billionaires lost money in the past year, 44 added to their fortunes. Those who made money did so by catering to budget-conscious consumers (discount retailer Uniqlo's Tadashi Yanai), predicting the crash (investor John Paulson) or cashing out in the nick of time (Cirque du Soleil's Guy Laliberte).

So is there anywhere one can still make a fortune these days? The 38 newcomers offer a few clues. Among the more notable new billionaires are Mexican Joaquín Guzmán Loera, one of the biggest suppliers of cocaine to the U.S.; Wang Chuanfu of China, whose BYD Co. began selling electric cars in December, and American John Paul Dejoria, who got the world clean with his Paul Mitchell shampoos and sloppy with his Patrón Tequila.

Cheers
JB

[quant]

It's not all bad news :p

Qatar Airways bucks trend with major expansion plans for 2009 (http://www.flightglobal.com/articles/2009/03/11/323663/qatar-airways-bucks-trend-with-major-expansion-plans-for-2009.html)

Once we are through this turbulent period what does everyone think the price of oil will be? I'm going for $150/barrel.

;)

[JB007]

Once we are through this turbulent period what does everyone think the price of oil will be? I'm going for $150/barrel.

I think it's irrelavant...

If it's high or low, as a fare paying pax, you'll be paying for it in the way of surcharges...

[smith]

2000hrs is going to be the new 200hrs in 2010.



Not in Ryanair it ain't, the 200 hour guy has a much better chance of getting in than the 2000 hour guy.

Ryanair are probably actually making the situation worse by taking on all these wannabe's when the green shoots of recovery occurs there will be a whole bunch of 500 hr jet guys who have been turfed out waiting in line for jobs elsewhere.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

I agree but that's just one company who don't even pretend to be doing anything other than exploiting Wannabes willingness to work for less than nothing. Which is rational on their part.


Though more widely you may be right. Other airlines will also screw down crew costs by offering part time, starter contracts, taster menu jobs to Wannabes. Doubtless there will be a queue.

By their frantic grasping do Wannabes drive the balloon ever further from their fingertips.



Its so terribly sad to see the profession swirling around the plughole.


WWW:{

[Phantasm]

Its so terribly sad to see the profession swirling around the plughole.

Any experience in life is based on what you make of it. Spend your life moaning, worrying and counting grains of sand and you'll end up a very sad, lonely individual.

[TheBeak]

Yeah and if you end up believing in fairy tales with your head buried in the sand and your bum in the air you'll get buggered......

The likes of CTCs Flexicrew deal, particularly with Easyjet is going to ruin things further, probably more so than Ryanair. It is a very definate 6 months then you're out. And the chance of getting a further contract is nigh on none with the next batch of cadets ready to fill in any gaps.

[Phantasm]

It's best to be neither a dreamer nor a Scrooge. There is a fine balance to strike - be realistic by all means, but swimming in an ocean of depression is not the way to make progress.

[TheBeak]

I agree, realism is the only option, however it just so happens that at the moment the truth or reality hurts ALOT.

[one post only!]

It isn't the ocean of depression you need to worry about, its the munch of the credit crunch shark you want to watch!

[Phantasm]

Look, I am fortunate to be in a relatively (strictly speaking) comfortable position, but I'm well aware that there are millions who are not.

It's not a nice place to be right now, we all know that - I am not against being realistic and understanding what's going on in the real world. I am against people who make it their goal to consistently try to prove very negative points that I'm sure we're all aware of.

To put it simply, I am a great believer that the psychological effects of a recession can outweigh the financial effects. Consumer confidence - two key words, and it is the lack of this that is fuelling the depression. It does not help consumer confidence when people switch the TV on and watch how many people have been laid off. Or go online and see how many businesses have gone into administration. Or go on PPRuNe to read about what the next airline is to offer unpaid leave.

Personally I am boycotting this whole damn thing. So what? The '91 recession was nasty - in a way I am sick and tired of these 'phugoidial slumps', if there is such a phrase. I believe that if all 6 billion people on this planet (last time I counted) turned their attitudes right around and got positive, there would be a noticeable difference in how long the recession lasted.

Of course I could never prove that because it's impractical. It's like suggesting the solution to FR's continuous destruction of T + Cs could be solved by every wannabe saying no. It's a great answer, it would no doubt work, but it's impractical.

I count myself very fortunate to even have a job, and I go out of my way to ensure I will have it tomorrow.

I just believe in making the best out of a tricky situation...

[TheBeak]

I hear what you are saying and I am sure it is a factor. I am not saying be depressed, just be depressed when you are a low hour pilot getting screwed by the FTOs, the airlines, the economy and the country. Be happy in everything else you do......please. I do believe though that people need to be armed with the facts, via the medium of pprune, in order to make a SENSIBLE decision as to whether to begin training now, next year or ever. I wish I had listened a couple of years ago......and so, certainly from my point of view, I feel the need to communicate my truthful yet unfortunately negative views. It is done because there are inevitably points that are raised that others may have missed, not realised or been blinded from by the desperation to fly.

[JB007]

Totally agree with the last two post's...best i've read on this thread for a while...albeit different angles. It will sort itself out...

...with your head buried in the sand and your bum in the air you'll get buggered......

And that was bloody funny...

[quant]

After much soul searching and listening to lots of peoples advice i'm not going to proceed with my flight training for now. I'll keep my job and and pop up on the weekends with an aim to slowly completing my ppl. I'll assume a 4-5 year recovery window and will adjust my training to suit.

:p

[TheBeak]

I'd say that's a good decision......this 'situation' is the time for modular training, to earn and learn and watch things develop. It is a far more dynamic and flexible way to be and will stand you in far better sted than an integrated course currently will.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Phantasm, I leave it to the Government and the flying schools to put a positive spin on things. Something they're very skilled at.

I don't for one second buy this bull5h1t that we're talking ourselves into a recession and that all we need is love/confidence/quantatative easing. This is a depression. Its causes are massive imbalances in trade and living standards and the only inevitable solution is a lowering of living standards in the West, reduced consumption and the end of fairytale economics where we all got rich selling houses to each other. Those days are gone, they're not coming back and the airline industry they supported will have to whither and contract. It will. It is.

Like you I too am very very fortunate. Great job, home, wife and soon to be family. I've everything to be grateful and happy about and I am. But. I see the world as it really is with an insight of my own formed from my own research. Its how I called a house price crash, a recession and monetary crisis right here on these pages months or years before they happened. Airlines, big 'uns, on these shores will go bust. Pilots will be flipping burgers. It will be horrendous for Wannabes.

Its an ocean of depression true enough. Its your choice whether you dive in or not. Many are. <shrug>


WWW

[KAG]

Phantasm or in your dream?

Consumer confidence - two key words, and it is the lack of this that is fuelling the depression.


Yes!!!! True!! Let's be confident, buy more, and eat more! This is the only possibility to escape this recession.
Because we need more debts. My house belongs to the bank, my car belongs to the bank, even my fridge!!! And the banks, where they get their money from?
Let' s buy more!!!
And eat more too. That is very important for the economy. That is why in america only 30% of the adults are not fat. But who cares!!! That is so good for the economy!


It does not help consumer confidence when people switch the TV on and watch how many people have been laid off.


Sure, don' t look at the others being fired!!! And addition you are in a confortable situation no?Look, I am fortunate to be in a relatively (strictly speaking) comfortable position



Or go on PPRuNe to read about what the next airline is to offer unpaid leave.


So you are not a pprune member right? And how would you know about the unpaid leave if you don' t read about it?


I believe that if all 6 billion people on this planet (last time I counted) turned their attitudes right around and got positive, there would be a noticeable difference in how long the recession lasted.


Yes? Even the one who has been fired, and cannot feed his family?
The one who has cancer, and will die in 3 month?
The African dude who has no leg because of the war and that is life is not worth a dog' s?
And what about this dirty, poor, uneducated Asian farmer?
If it helps economy, I will tell them myself: Hey guys! lets be positive ok?


I count myself very fortunate to even have a job, and I go out of my way to ensure I will have it tomorrow.


You are so cool!!! Why now not calling out loud the ones fired loosers? Don' t keep it for yourself!


in a way I am sick and tired of these 'phugoidial slumps', if there is such a phrase

And me I am sick and tired of blind people leading us directly against the wall while saying, "but for me everything is fine".

For the record, I have a job. There is nothing personal. This way of thinking makes me sick, that is all.

[Grass strip basher]

"soon to be family"... if I read that right congrats WWW!... you see its not all bad.... recession = more time at home and something good comes from it! :}

[Phantasm]

KAG,

On the whole, your points are completely irrelevant and have succeeded in missing the point entirely.

Your examples are no reflection on the economy; you'll find them in all walks of life, recession or no recession.

When the banks finally sort their business out, it still won't put a real leg on my old man.

[quant]

It's not all bad news:

Hydrogen to fuel green jets (http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/transport/article5907888.ece)

We have had the hydrogen-powered car, now meet the hydrogen aircraft.
A British company has developed an air-breathing hydrogen engine that could radically cut the environmental footprint of air and space travel.
Reaction Engines, based in Oxfordshire, has just secured a €1m (£926,000) grant from the European Space Agency (ESA) to advance its Sabre propulsion system.
Like a rocket engine, Sabre burns liquid hydrogen. But unlike a rocket, Sabre does not also require a supply of liquid oxygen to operate inside the Earth’s atmosphere; instead it grabs, cools and compresses its own supply from the air itself.

Although developed for the Skylon pilotless-spaceplane project, Sabre could be central to a new generation of hydrogen-fuelled aircraft.
Fossil-fuel-powered air travel is responsible for up to 3% of global carbon-dioxide emissions and is Britain’s fastest-growing source of greenhouse-gas emissions. But liquid-hydrogen fuel can be created from water, using electricity, and the Sabre’s only exhaust gas is steam.
The British-designed Skylon requires only a small supply of liquid oxygen (for operation at heights above 25km) and is light enough to take off from a standing start on an ordinary runway.
The entire vehicle is re-usable, and does not require expensive, exotic materials for its construction.
“We could conduct a test flight in 2018 and be in operation by 2020,” said Mark Hempsell, the future programmes director at Reaction Engines.
But first the engine has to be perfected. The ESA cash brings Sabre’s total seed money to about £6m — peanuts compared with the estimated £4.3 billion spent by America’s Nasa on similar hydrogen-engine projects.
The Americans have little to show for their investment, however. Reaction Engines has working prototypes of two of Sabre’s key components: the pre-cooler that handles the rush of incoming air, and the turbo-compressor that condenses it before feeding it to the engine.
Hempsell said: “Hydrogen is the fuel of the future for aeroplanes. It’s green and it’s efficient — although you can’t force hydrogen engines onto existing planes. The trick is to start designing on a blank slate, as we have done with Skylon.”
:ok:

If you want to know more here is the link to the reaction engines ltd (http://www.reactionengines.co.uk/sabre.html)

[KAG]

Your examples are no reflection on the economy; you'll find them in all walks of life, recession or no recession.



If you find them in all walks of life, that is why they are valid.

[Grass strip basher]

From the broad sheets today....

Britain's airports were hit by recession and high fuel prices last year, with 4.6 million fewer people taking to the air, the first passenger decline in 17 years.

The escalating cost of jet fuel in the first half of 2008 pushed up ticket prices while recession delivered a further blow to the air travel market in the second half. The 1.9 per cent decline in passenger numbers was the first drop since 1991 and only the fourth since the end of the Second World War, the Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) said.

London's airports were hit particularly badly, with Stansted showing a 6 per cent drop, equivalent to 1.4 million passengers. Gatwick reported a 2.8 per cent drop as some airlines based there — including XL, the holiday group, Zoom and Oasis — went into bankruptcy.

London's loss was Paris's gain as Aeroports de Paris, which operates Charles de Gaulle and Orly, increased passenger numbers by 0.8 per cent.

The big fall in passenger numbers at Stansted and Gatwick is a serious concern for BAA, which owns them. BAA has put Gatwick up for sale and its price tag of about £1.8 billion could fall if bidders believe that passenger numbers will continue to decline. BAA is likely to be forced to sell Stansted when the Competition Commission delivers its report on airport ownership this month. It is expected to find that BAA's ownership of Heathrow, Gatwick and Stansted has been bad for passengers and airlines.

Traffic is likely to continue to decline, Harry Bush, the CAA group director of economic regulation, said: “The fall in passenger numbers is to be expected in light of the worsening economic situation during 2008. The early indications are that the larger falls seen in the last quarter of 2008 are continuing into the new year, with the prospect of declining traffic in 2009 overall.”

Not all airports in Britain suffered a drop in passenger numbers. Luton, for example, managed to increase traffic by 255,000 people, a 2.6 per cent gain. London City managed a 12 per cent rise, although the CAA said that its growth had slowed dramatically in the final quarter. The CAA highlighted that domestic air travel had fallen by 4.8 per cent, or 50 million journeys, as passengers switched to trains.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

By the time the figures are reported in this way in CAA official reports you are talking about things which were happening in the real world 18 months ago. The past year has been much much worse and widespread than the period covered by this report.

The next report cannot be anything other than horrific as it reflects the current crisis to date. Which has already seen a sharper, fuller, faster collapse than either the 1981 recession or the War (2, grudge re-match).

This is the phoney war stage. Phoney War - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phony_War)


Do not be lulled into thinking this is a short war nearly over. The big casualty numbers will come rolling in by Christmas rather than any Doves of Peace.


WWW

WWW

[smith]

Listen wannabes I got the news you all want to hear.

DO YOUR TRAINING NOW!

Integrated or modular just get it done ASAP.

A big splash in the daily express today saying that we are going to get crucified by taxes in the not too distant future to pay for the multi billion pound bailouts and vat reductions etc.

So be sensible and get your integrated courses booked now before vat goes up to 20% and your salary gets whacked by increased income tax. The savings will be in their thousands if you do it sooner rather than later. Its a great time to be a wannabe!

[Deano777]

Yeah that's great, all do your training now, you'll save thousands. Then when you qualify in a year's time you have to spend thousands renewing Multi Ratings, IRs etc etc & keeping current.

One can only assume your post was "tongue in cheak" :\

[smith]

no it was actually tongue in cheek lol

[Deano777]

oh sorry smith, another member of the PPRuNe spelling police out in force, please excuse my typo

[roboc]

Phantasm i take my hat off to you, the only one brave enough to go up against the recession pushers. I see your point and also WWW's but I suspect delivering bad news with such dramatic effect gives these people a bit of sick pleasure when they themselves are secure. It is suffice to say the outlook is very bleak for the next ?? years "don't consider throwing €80,000 away on an integrated course". No need for the repeated cramming of doom down our necks. I'm halfway to a fATPL and i'm nervous enough but my only hope is to stay positive or else it will be worthless. Negativity gets nobody nowhere it demotivates and demoralises. Live in the real world yes but focus on your goal and do whatever it takes to get there if you've already set out. Thanks for the glimmer :ok:

[quant]

I'm halfway to a fATPL and i'm nervous enough but my only hope is to stay positive or else it will be worthless.

That's the spirit! keep positive otherwise you'll mess up your training :p

[TheBeak]

''Negativity gets nobody nowhere it demotivates and demoralises'' - Therefore it gets somebody somewhere, therefore be negative! No one is being negative, the sensible people on here are just being realisitic, open your eyes......

[quant]

A rather sobering article:

UK recession will drag into 2010 as others recover, says IMF - Times Online (http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article5927645.ece)

Britain’s economy is set to keep shrinking well into next year, even after all or most of its leading competitors have begun to enjoy renewed growth, the International Monetary Fund will warn this week.
In a severe blow to Gordon Brown’s hopes for an economic revival to take hold by Christmas, the IMF will predict that the UK economy will shrink in 2010 by a further 0.2 per cent.


Next time we vote remember not to vote for Gordon Brown :=

[Grass strip basher]

Emirates have stopped flying the A380 from NY to Dubai..... not enough demand..... that is a real eye opener as to how tought life is even down here in the desert.... although for some reason they have swtiched them on to the Bangkok and Toronto routes!

Won't be long before you see airlines in the Middle East delaying/cancelling orders.:{

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Where are we on this chart do you believe?


http://www.moneyweek.com/investments/property/~/media/733B1CBD37D84E7DAEB4578168EA82BB.ashx?w=450&h=334&as=1





We are entering the Bear Trap <edit - whoops, I meant Bull Trap>. House prices are a good proxy for everything else in the economy. They still have a very long way to fall:

http://www.moneyweek.com/investments/property/~/media/D327469500CF42F29320F579383FF837.ashx?w=450&h=362&as=1




The bottom is still a long way off yet.

WWW

[quant]

We are entering the Bear Trap.

nah, i believe we're in the bull trap.

Here's an interesting thread:

http://www.pprune.org/terms-endearment/365852-finnair-placing-pilots-unpaid-leave.html

Press Release this morning:
"Finnair is to place its pilots on unpaid leave as a consequence of a change in flight schedules. The periods of leave, of at least one week, will be implemented as of mid-April. The reduction in human resources will vary
depending on the aircraft type.
“In the present climate of demand, flight schedules and the requirement for unpaid leave are being monitored regularly,” says Veikko Sievänen, Senior Vice President, Flight Operations Division.

The measures cover at this stage some 700 pilots and are part of a 30 million euro savings package being implemented by the Flight Operations Division."

[Mikehotel152]

House prices are a good proxy for everything else in the economy

Er, before making such statements, please provide us with a graph which shows wages, or even the RPI or FTSE, over the same time frame. I would be incredibly surprised if the 'value' of houses bears any relation to anything aside from the amount borrowed.

The fact of the matter is that houses are incredibly over-valued and it's high-time they lost 30% of their value or more. If that takes people into negative equity, well, they weren't complaining when spending their new found 'wealth' (read: equity) on flash new BMWs and foreign holidays.

:*

Rant over.

They still have a very long way to fall

And that I would agree with if the government endorsed a policy of building new homes. And no, I don't regard the multitude of fancy 2 bedroom (each the size of a cupboard) apartments as family homes! With supply of new homes coming to meet demand, perhaps we'd get reasonable house prices. Now, if only they can sort out the lending crisis, everything will be rosey again...:)

[ReallyAnnoyed]

WWW, if we're entering the bear trap, I need to buy a lot of shares soon! :} Think you may want to use the other trap thingie ;)

[Grass strip basher]

I am a bear but that chart is a bit out of date WWW..... house prices are down 20-25% already.... only another 20-25% to go. :sad:

[Alex Whittingham]

Graph follows graph, but what on earth do they mean? WWW's top graph with 'bear traps' and 'bull traps' appears to be from an academic site illustrating a typical stock market bubble. What does the line labelled 'mean' mean? Is it a mean? It doesn't look like it. If the stock ended up 100% higher at the end of the 'blowoff phase' would they draw the 'mean' line to that position? That would mean the stock was 'undervalued' right up to the point labelled 'media attention'. Can a simplistic graph illustrating a stock market bubble be applied to our situation? If so, wasn't it the 'smart money' and 'institutional investors' doing the buying in the 'mania phase'?

And how does this fit WWW's previous graph (http://www.pprune.org/professional-pilot-training-includes-ground-studies/335548-growing-evidence-upturn-upon-us-104.html#post4775918)? Not at all.

What is a nominal house price graph? Why is it different to this one (http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/indices-nationwide-national-inflation.php), apart from the peak at the end? It looks like it isn't inflation adjusted, the 1990 peak only shows if you do that. Is it valid to consider a house price graph that is not adjusted for inflation? Should we perhaps relate house prices to incomes like this (http://www.mortgageguideuk.co.uk/blog/house-prices/house-prices-income/) or, and this is much more difficult to do, against disposable income?

I'm not denying we're in the sticky stuff, just wondering what value there is in posting unexplained and irrelevant graphs followed by statements like 'Be very afraid' and 'buy shotguns and tinned food'.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Whoops - bull trap.


Where houses were relative to the wages at the peak of the boom was:



http://www.moneyweek.com/investments/property/~/media/E455EE3380BF450F8A2EDEC199190954.ashx?w=450&h=298&as=1



Here are some interesting statistics to consider, based on 2007 prices. The average salary multiple over the last 37 years (1971 to 2007) is 4.54. At the 2007 average wage of £24,000, that gives an average house price of £109,000 – a fall of 40% from the peak. But if you exclude the bubble years (from 2001 to 2007), you get a 4.17 average salary multiple – which would give an average house price of £100,091, a fall of 45% from the peak.

Of course, if you then start to restrict the multiples that people can borrow, and the deposits they have to put down, the average falls even further. For example, a 3.5 times salary multiple with a 10% deposit gives you a £93,333 average house price (a 49% drop).

And of course, this isn't considering what would happen if house prices return to three or four times the average wage, but the average wage falls, as is quite possible if we do end up in deflation.



Of course where we are now shows that the correction is happening quite quickly but it still have a way to go yet:


http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/graphs/generated/homepage.png



Wannabes are *still* signing up for £70,000 intensive training courses in the hope or expectation that the job market will be better in 18 months. It won't, it will be much much worse, but they can't see that. Which is why I continue to push the view Alex.

Its not a gloomy or happy prediction. Its devoid of emotion.

As reported in the Economist in January 2009 I believe the report produced by Kenneth Rogoff of Harvard University and Carmen Reinhart. Their analysis of the last 14 severe economic crisis is summarised thus:

http://media.economist.com/images/20090110/CFN6691.gif


The main results of the research make depressing reading. Downturns that follow a financial crisis are typically long and deep (see table). On average, GDP per person falls by more than 9% from its peak and takes almost two years to reach bottom. The misery in the jobs market tends to last far longer. The unemployment rate increases by an average of seven percentage points after severe meltdowns and reaches a peak almost five years after its rise began. If that gauge is accurate, unemployment in America is set to rise to an alarming rate of 11-12% in coming years. The housing bust is unlikely to end quickly either. House prices take an average of five years to reach their nadir and fall by 36% in real terms. Equities take less time to reach rock bottom but lose more than half of their value by the time they get there.


WWW :cool:

[Grass strip basher]

What are you looking at then to guage how much we are in the poo then Alex.... airline passenger/cargo numbers? Airline profitability?

How mainy airlines/FTOs go out of business?.... :uhoh:
Lets have some pearls of wisdom.... what are bookings like at BGS YoY.... that would be an interesting chart....

[Alex Whittingham]

Oh, come on. You can't just post a stylised graph of a stock market bubble over an indeterminate period above a non-inflation adjusted house price graph over 25 years, observe they look the same, then imply there's a bear I mean bull trap coming and the bottom's still a long way off. That's rubbish, and typical of the twaddle that gets posted on this thread.

This is what I was looking for, a graph of house prices against disposable income (http://extras.timesonline.co.uk/pdfs/houseprices.pdf). to make it more meaningful you should also probably factor in mortgage rates, which were much higher in the 80's and 90's than they have been recently.

I'm gauging the amount of trouble we're in by consumer confidence, which is neccesarily a subjective view. Do you see any airlines going out of business?

[Grass strip basher]

Not in the last couple of months.... since XL, maxjet etc etc spewed a load of pilots.... although sure there are probably some in US/Europe I have missed.
See a lot laying off crew though or offering "unpaid leave".... and a lot posting losses and pointing to cuts/mergers etc.... all crap for wanabee recruitment.

Plus I think we all know the real blood will be on the streets next winter once cash reserves are burnt through (both consumer and airline). Or would you disagree and you think we are over the worst?

Consumer confidence is pants from where I sit and getting worse..... haven't seen any official data saying it has improved or is likely to.

How are bookings at Bristol GS.... any sign of recession biting or are the pilot training sausage factories still working at capacity to churn out the next wave of wanabee onto a depressed job market?

You could add some real value to wanabees by giving them an insight here.... would be something that is not "subjective" and you have value added on.

[Alex Whittingham]

The problem that I have with this thread is that the same posters cycle round and round presenting a very one sided view, usually by cutting and pasting selected crap in from elsewhere on the internet.

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to see that we're in recession and that house prices have been falling for nearly a year. A real rocket scientist would be able to precisely predict the upturn but that's not what we get. What we get from our resident experts is assurances that it will all continue to some undefined point far enough in the future that you're not likely to be called to account and, if it did turn around early, hey, these things are notoriously difficult to predict and the 'experts' would certainly be able to explain it after the event.

My main issue is that there's not enough balance. WWW has enough gravitas for his postings to be taken very seriously and he posts again and again with the same highly negative message. Yes, he would call it realistic, but you should accept that there are other views and WWW's opinion is just that, an opinion. It's also an opinion that he has an emotional and financial investment in having sold his house, moved into rented accommodation and bought a farm (and probably shotguns) so he can live off the land. But dissent is not allowed for long here, naysayers are swiftly cudgeled about the head and sent packing to the sound of mocking laughter.

Many people have seen their spending power increase dramatically in the last few months as mortgage payments have fallen. Yes, we all know people who have lost their jobs and we all have friends in industries like finance and property where there is an obvious downturn but many more of us still have jobs and are sitting this out, waiting for the upturn, the esential marker for which is the return of consumer confidence.

It's easy to be snarky, and refer to those of us who work in the industry as 'pilot training sausage factories', but I think it's unwarranted. Everyone I know in the industry tries to do the best they can for their customers as I'm sure you do for the customers in your profession. Would you like us all to retire, then, so you can train yourself?

The value that I would add to this thread, if you would accept it as value, is to point out that WWW and his acolytes are not neccessarily right. They are only stating opinions, and one-sided opinions at that.

[quant]

The value that I would add to this thread, if you would accept it as value, is to point out that WWW and his acolytes are not neccessarily right. They are only stating opinions, and one-sided opinions at that.I'm an optimist Alex always have been always will be but it's hard to see the green shoots of recovery at the moment :suspect: When they start appearing your organisation can expect my business and right now nearly everyone is saying wait and see what happens to the industry. I don't thing anyone really knows what's going to happen but it will be interesting to see :p

[Alex Whittingham]

Exactly my point. Wait and see. Pardon me for having very little faith in business journalists, bankers and economists. They have a poor track record in predicting the future.

[pipertommy]

I totally agree with you Alex! This thread is extremely one sided, and very repetitive. Everyone knows 2009 will be a hard year, but after that who knows. No one.

[getoffmycloud]

Well please fill out the otherside of the debate with grounds for optimism and lay out a path to a recovery in pilot recruitment in 2010. I would loooove to here some good news.

Perhaps you should ask the question why is the debate so one sided.... might be to do with the overwhelming evidence for the prosecution??

Alex for all his moaning sits at the heart of the training industry as we all know and in the past he pointed to Easy and Ryanairs traffic numbers.... now Easy's growth has gone 6-7% negative year on year and Ryanair is slowing dramatically but still postive... please offer some other evidence as to why wanabees should spend money in the hope of a pick up in 2010.

I for one would love to here some good news.... don't complain about it being oneside give the otherside and the reason for such optimism....pleeeeeease...:}

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

I've always encouraged people to put the counter view to my own. Many did back when I was saying there was going to be a massive house price crash and a severe recession.

I agree there is little point in pointing out where we are. Which is why my recent posts have been about how long we are likely to be where we are.

Crap off the internet includes the sort of crap that the editor of The Economist see fit to print so I make no apology for the content I link to. Claims that I have some emotional and financial motive for delighting in the current misery are quite wide of the mark. I'm highly concerned for my own situation and have very close friends close to losing everything.

Alex, you find this thread unbalanced and I accept that. But I see this thread and this topic as but a small voice against a rock concert of noise produced by the flight training industry and their marketing budgets. This is one thread on one forum on one discussion site. You're welcome to continue, and to increase, the balance. You're good at it.

When things were booming I was writing here that Wannabes should dive straight in to benefit from "the golden age for wannabes". I very much look forward to writing such words again. At the moment you'd be mad to join in the carnage and I make no apology for pumping out that message.


WWW

[Alex Whittingham]

Two good points, getoffmycloud, and one not-so-good one.

Your first good point, Easy traffic numbers were down in February. I've consistently pointed out, in the face of doom and gloom statements about the state of the airline industry that, in the biggest area that concerns us, the UK short haul market, there is no slowdown. OK, for the first month in yonks, Easy's passenger figures were down. Obviously you were right, we are all doomed. But, hang on, do you remember the snow in February, the closed airports and the cancelled flights? That didn't happen last year. Now I don't know, but maybe some of the traffic fall was down to that?

Which brings me to my first point, the tendency to blindly accept graphs, figures and percentages without analysing the source data. This is a big mistake, and it happens too often with this cut-and-paste thread. Everyone has an angle, newspapers like big headlines and companies use downturns for a bit of writing off and staff culling. The graphs above are a good example of trying to fit the statistics to a pre-conceived view.

Your second good point. Why not make the case for a recovery, say in August 2009 or July? If I did that I'd be just as guilty of amateur guesswork as the posts I'm complaining about. Much of it is put around as 'the truth'. It's not, it's guesswork, and the only 'truth' is that no-one knows.

Your not-so-good point, attacking my motivation. You are quite wrong. Myself and WWW have always said basically the same thing. There is no guarantee of a job, anyone who suggests that is lying to you. Unlike you I have never said 'this is the golden age of the wannabee', it is always a bet. Sometimes the odds are in your favour and an integrated course will get you a position quickly, sometimes the odds suggest a modular course and staying in employment is the best answer, sometimes it's not a good time to start training at all. The problem with estimating the odds is that, when you make the call, you are looking 15 months to three years in the future so, at the end of the day, it's a guess. WWW is also wrong about his 'rock concert of noise' from the flight training industry. I watch my competitors marketing closely, and they all give responsible advice. If there is anything like he describes it comes not from the industry but from the customers justifying their purchasing decision as they pile £70K+ into an integrated course. In a wider area, yes, I do like to see a healthy training industry and a stable recruitment market. Who wouldn't?

So, no, I have no problems about attacking opinions presented as 'truth' and I don't feel a need to counter them by making up my own projections. As for the editor of the Economist, WWW, you believe him if you like. I don't imagine he's any better than Gordon Brown, Alistair Darling, the chairman of RBS, the CEO of Northern Rock, the CEO of Lehman Brothers....

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Alex - don't worry. Nobody listens to me and I've no delusions about that.

You keep pointing out that I am giving my opinion. I am. There's no Gravitas, no Editorial, no pretence.

If there is any weight, attached by readers, its only because what I wrote was right and it was before it became self evident. Might be luck, might be gold dust. :hmm:

Be upbeat. Be vocal. Be my guest.


WWW

[ZeBedie]

A couple of points from a dispassionate observer -

1, It's morally right, for those old enough to have seen previous recessions to warn those who may be too young to put the current situation into perspective.

2, WWW has nothing financial to gain if his viewpoint is accepted. I don't believe the same could be said for AW.

[Grass strip basher]

eerrrr I think you will find the biggest factors contibuting to the Easy passenger number decline is that Feb is the first month with GB distortions dropping out (which was pointed out to you months ago)..... what you saw in Feb (and will see in coming months) is the true underlying picture. Stripping out the GB acquisition distortion Easy's numbers have been down for 3-4 months now.

Although I am sure WWW can give a better view on the current state of affairs at the Big Orange.

The aviation industry is clearly in a (big) hole at the moment and I have yet to hear ANYONE come up with any reason why this should turn around in the next 12-18 months.... no-one has even had the balls to step up to the plate and lay out a path to recovery....

Alex it is all very well you saying "no-one knows for sure".... that is true but the harsh reality for wanabees is if you start you training now in most cases you pop out the sausage machine in 12-18 months.... that it is why speculation, opinions etc about what the job market looks like then is so important to wanabees today.

You are being equally disingenuous with your comments because much as you may hate to admit it to yourself WWW has no financial gain from sharing his views. You are running one of the biggest and best ground school providers and clearly do have "skin in the flight training game" and could never be expected to lay it out as it is at the moment.... you would scare all your customers away.

To be constructive the first signs of recovery may well be a stabilistation in US house prices.... the rest may flow from there. So keep an eye on the Case-Schiller index and maybe plan to start your training when that has bottomed for a couple of months. 12-18 months post that things may start picking up.

[quant]

2, WWW has nothing financial to gain if his viewpoint is accepted. I don't believe the same could be said for AW. Further evidence emerged on Wednesday of the severe downturn in the aviation sector as Emirates pulled its giant Airbus A380s off the Dubai to New York route.
The airline blamed the weakening global economy for the decision, an embarrassing U-turn only eight months after its A380 services were launched with the New York route.
Emirates' failure to make New York work with the A380 has raised concerns about the large number of the double-decker aircraft ordered by the carrier. It is the A380's largest customer and has ordered 58 of the 500-seat aircraft. It operates two to New York, one to Heathrow and one to Sydney.
Within the aviation industry, some of the New York flights have been rumoured to be only 30 per cent full, although Emirates declined to comment on that yesterday.
Superjumbo setback leads to U-turn by Emirates - Times Online (http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/transport/article5935024.ece)

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Thats quite suprising. If you can't make Dubai - New York work using an A380..

WWW

[Grass strip basher]

Dubai is very quite at the moment.
Can't believe life is treating EK too kindly.

[TheBeak]

Topslide6 you are absolutely right. All the FTOs and some posters on this thread are trying to do is give a false sense of confidence for their own benefit. This is also known as a 'con' short for confidence. Here is a meaning of the word con: Persons of any level of intelligence are vulnerable to deception by experienced con artists. Confidence tricks exploit human weaknesses like greed (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greed_(emotion)), dishonesty (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dishonesty), vanity (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vanity), but also virtues like honesty (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Honesty), compassion (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Compassion), or a naïve (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Naive) expectation of good faith on the part of the con artist. I think that sounds ALOT like some of the FTOs and people with an invested interest in airline training. Do NOT touch it for a long while. What's the worst that can happen? The airlines have insufficient qualified pilots to fill the spaces? GOOD - that would teach them but it would never happen. And the only reason I am saying this is to give some advice to people who are really considering training anytime soon...... NOT to have a go at anyone - BGS for instance is a fantastic training provider and I would recommend it strongly to anyone looking to do ATPLs when the time is right. Now may even be a good time to do your ATPLs whilst there is barely any money making opportunity to lose in the current economy. But actual flight training is to be avoided for a fair while to come.

[Captain Boycott]

To give balance, Id like to add my thoughts on the thread

WWW quite rightly stands his corner regarding the current climate and undoubtable excellent knowledge of the financial world (for the record the graphs do look rather pretty but I have no idea what the mean either). His opinion doesnt come with some personal or organisational gain from the wanabee ie he has nothing to sell - always a good point of note for the wannabee. WWW has been around long enough to understand the industry so quite rightly communicates the need to be careful and to think ahead. A good source of an opinion for the wannabe

AW and BGS do have something to sell, but to be fair (for the record I attended BGS so base this on my own experience) they are one of the few organisations I have experience of in the flight training industry that were 'transparent' 'honest' and did exactly what it said on the tin - I would personally recomend them to family and or friends. Which is as good feedback as I can give about any organisation. Unfortunately some wouldnt get the same recomendation from myself and for the record this is not a slight at one of BGS oppos either - I didnt attend any other groundschool. Also a good source of an opinion

Not all the organisations out there in the mad world of flight training are as upstanding as BGS, I feel its important the main crux of the thread isnt missed or even derailed by our two esteemed gentlemen locking horns

It would be criminal however that the fact that these two informed opinions dont quite align, could derail the main message of this thread

Even in the good times it isnt easy to secure a permanent position even with all the ticks in the correct boxes - tread carefully now, plan for the future. Dont allow yourself to get sucked into the dream - securing the dream simply isnt that easy ... even in the good times.

More imprtantly - think carefully whom you take advice from with your thousands

Back down off my soapbox

[speedrestriction]

I echo the advice of many of the contributors here; now is not the time to sign on an integrated course. There will be more contraction in the industry putting more experienced pilots out there looking for work. If you must train now go down the modular route to retain a degree of flexibility. If you are certain that integrated is the only way forward then wait until there are sustained and credible indicators that a recovery is underway. Getting your first job is largely about timing. Giving yourself the best chance of getting into this industry at the moment involves having some patience. If you are considering flight training at the moment don't plan on getting interviewed for your first job before autumn 2011 if not longer.

sr

[Artie Fufkin]

The whole point of this thread is to educate people who are not in the industry to not be taken in by the marketing spiel of the FTO's.Used to be and should be, but sadly isn't.

The target audience has long since unplugged, due to the boredom of looking at yet another graph "educating them" about the fact we are in recession. I can just see it now; wannabe logs on to pprune sees a plunging graph and says "Good grief! Really? I hadn't heard we were in bad economic times!?!"

If help to wannabes is intended, perhaps the debate should move on from Sybil Fawlty's specialised subject on mastermind.

[Rhyspiper]

Don't worry everyone an unnamed pilot factory recently told me that if I give them X amount of pounds I will be guarenteed a job at the end of my training!

Hurrah we are all saved!

[ZeBedie]

Nobody can predict the future, but if you look at some of the investors forums there are people predicting a twenty year long Second Great Depression. Hopefully they are wrong. Hopefully...

[smith]

What has 9/11 got to do with the current economic situation? Everyone keeps refering to 9 bloody 11, there is no correlation as far as I can see.

[quant]

A couple of interesting articles that i came across this evening before going to bed:

Crisis sinks home for airlines as business travel demand slumps (http://www.flightglobal.com/articles/2009/03/16/323882/comment-business-travel-continues-sharp-decline.html)

Buried on page 24 of Cathay Pacific's 2008 results is a single, sobering comment: "Front end collapse." This is not the unfortunate result of a landing gear mishap but an honest admission that first and business class cabins are increasingly lonely places.
The sharp drop in business travel began in September last year following the financial market meltdown. The transatlantic market was the first to suffer. Now, as we move towards the second quarter, the evidence that markets across the globe are suffering in equal and sometimes greater measure is overwhelming.
"It's not quite as bad as air freight, but it's heading that way," says Brian Pearce, IATA's chief economist, comparing the downward lurch of cargo with that of premium demand. Asian carriers, with their large cargo businesses, are feeling the pain on both fronts. Their region, which has prospered as the "workshop" of the world, has seen trade collapse, observes Pearce. International cargo traffic fell by 23% in January, says the Association of Asia Pacific Airlines. This has had a profound effect on business travel. The volume of premium tickets sold in Asia is the weakest globally and the Pacific is hurting too, says Pearce.
Market Outlook: What lies beyond the downturn for airlines? (http://www.flightglobal.com/articles/2009/03/17/323881/market-outlook-what-lies-beyond-the-downturn-for-airlines.html)

The majority of the December year-end companies have now reported their 2008 results and given their perspectives on 2009. Against this background it is worth spending a few moments on some of the possible outcomes in the near- and medium-term, and to give some consideration to the factors that may determine the ability of the industry to create shareholder value in the next upswing.
Given that we all expect the next 12-18 months to be particularly challenging, there is little to be gained from speculating how bad it is likely to get before we reach the turning point. There are still cases where hope appears to be triumphing over expectation.
While my view has been that 2009, in terms of financial performance, will be worse than 2008, this is not a view that has been universally shared. One thing that has become increasingly evident over the last weeks is that the expected fall in the fuel price will be insufficient to counter the combined effects of the continuing deterioration in the economic environment, the reduction in revenue resulting from the continued fall in traffic, the deteriorating mix and generally lower fares.

[Artie Fufkin]

Do you want to suggest an airline that's going to place a fresh order 200+ aircraft and get them half price right now? No? Thought not.Ryanair's lowcost longhaul project? MOL is on the record as saying the business plan depends on buying (admittedly only) 70 or so A350s or B787s at the "right price" during the downturn.

Maybe not today but to get them "at the right price" he'll have to buy them at a :mad: time like now.

Then again, he also said that blow jobs (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UfIY24BErBE) would be offered in business class....:rolleyes:

[smith]

The correlation is that it was a bad time for the airline industry and consequently for the wannabe job market, which is the whole point of this thread. Not that difficult to see, surely?


Yeah but 9/11 was an unexpected, extraordinary blip which had a comparatively little, or short lived effect on the airline industry. This crunch and the effect on the aviation industry is going to be deeper, sustained and is a result of an unheard of economic situation and not a terrorist attack. Also the airline industry has changed dramatically since 9/11, did we have online check-in in 2001? Did we have to pay for bags in 2001? Could we get to Paris for the weekend for a tenner in 2001? No, No, No!!!

We are comparing apples with dragon fruit here so any comparison with 9/11 in my book is irrelevant and a non starter!

[Alex Whittingham]

"The parallel lies in the fact that pilots were being made redundant and the job market for wanabees was rubbish."

Were you there? Actually, the job market for wannabees in the UK post 9/11 was not bad at all. The short haul airlines and low costs were still expanding, Easy were so short they were taking OZ expats as FOs with 6 months to command. Most of the airline slump stories were poached from the international press and related to long haul legacy carriers.

[Grass strip basher]

Watch for the IATA issuing a revised forecast for the industry this week.
Last forecast was for a $2.5bn loss for the industry in 2009 based off a fall of 3% in passenger numbers.... their last comment was "this is now looking optimistic.... the Global numbers are bad and the Asian numbers are a nightmare".

The slowdown in Japan and China was described as "shocking". They also said about "The world has never seen such a fall".

The IATA is an industry body and has no vested interest in talking down the situation. In fact you could say the opposite.

So yes this is an "airline slump story"... one that hasn't come from "the press" but is founded in harsh reality.... in fact it is so bad even the main industry bodies are calling it a disaster.

So wannabees if you don't to listen to WWW saying armageddon is upon us, or Alex who needs bums on seats at his training organisation maybe listen to the IATA. (health warning: the IATA stats do not include lowcos... but you can get their traffic stats from their websites.... Ryanair c+7% yoy in Feb(the lowest yoy rate in Ryanairs history and still slowing).... Easy -6% yoy in Feb).

For a list of IATA members... pretty reflective of the global situation i would say... Current Airline Members (http://www.iata.org/membership/airline_members_list?All=true)

[quant]

Perhaps this is the way to go:

I'm all for people using their noggins to better their career prospects, but this has surely gone too far!

This guy is offering his services for free:ugh:.........

I sympathise - been made redundant twice before, horrible place to be, but prostituting yourself is not only degeading, but gives our Airlines even more leverage to chip away at our already ever decreasing T&C's.

Mate, whoever you are, get it off ebay and good luck with the continued search for a job.

Link: Real Life Boeing 737 First Officer for FREE! on eBay, also, Other, Everything Else (end time 23-Jan-09 23:22:23 GMT) (http://cgi.ebay.co.uk/Real-Life-Boeing-737-First-Officer-for-FREE_W0QQitemZ200298673487QQihZ010QQcategoryZ88433QQssPageNa meZWDVWQQrdZ1QQcmdZViewItem)

For those who don't want to open the link, copy of text in ad:

Yes, i am a fully qualified Boeing 737 first officer that cannot find a job due to this stupid credit crunch- i am offering myself to you to fly Boeing 737 aircraft for free. I will happily work for anyone anywhere at anytime. Danger zones....not a problem.

I am 22, ridiculously good looking and have a great CV that will blow your socks off.

Trained at a top integrated flying school in the UK.

Any questions drop me an email.

http://www.pprune.org/terms-endearment/358640-first-officer-sale-ebay-free.html

[stormin norman]

The worlds banks, financial and building industries have been the big spenders in airline travel for either business or leisure.Its not rocket science to work out who's not travelling and why.

I cannot foresee any upturn until the banks get there houses in order and start travelling again.

Architects are a good barometer.When they start seeing an upturn in their work you know in 18 months to 2 years time things will be on the up.

[smith]

Could we get to Paris for the weekend for a tenner in 2001?

You still can't! Anyway,


Well I have many times but I have an electron card.

[smith]

I am not suggesting thinks are not dire, I'm just saying there is no comparison between today's situation and 9/11. It was more of a percieved downturn post 9/11 the media inflated the "fear of flying" and the war mongering did make people scared to fly but not in the numbers predicted. There was also SARS and foot and mouth that was stopping people flying at that time but in no way was it as massive as this, in fact I think 9/11 was a turning point for FR and thats when they really took off. If you look at pax figures post 9/11 they really start to shoot up then. As AW says it hit the USA more than Europe and maybe the legacy carriers slightly more but the loco's actually thrived on it. My brother in law was a BA747 SFO at the time and he was terrified of losing his job then, no-one at BA got cut then as the percieved threat never materialised, same at VS ther were no lay-offs at that time. This time around its not a percieved threat it is an actuality.

For those reasons I can not see how we can compare the two situations so I'm out!:ok:

[disco87]

Yes its awful, but the question is when do you think it will get better? People must have some sort of an inclination?

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

As I posted on the previous thread this piece of research from Januarys Economist magazine looks at how long peak-to-trough took in previous major economic crisis:



http://media.economist.com/images/20090110/CFN6691.gif



A 5 year fall would suggest we're approaching halfway down. I would guess its something of that order. So I'd leave job hunting for 3 years I think.

WWW

[disco87]

Looks like I may be lucky then, seems like I wouldn't finish any training for at least 2.5/3 years anyway.

Fingers crossed

[Rugbyears]

It is a concern; unfortunately it will possibly be approximately 18/.5 months before I finish at the age of 34! Indeed such a worry, nevertheless too far down the road to stop and revaluate!

[2 Whites 2 Reds]

It's a horrible feeling being too far down the training to turn back. I know because I'm there myself. But that's life, we all know things are **** and the newby jobs market is likely to remain so for some time to come. Rugbyears....I feel for you mate, I'm in the same boat going down the same money draining river without any sign of a paddle aswell!

Having kept up with this thread from its conception some time ago its clear that there are many different ways to try and predict the future but when all's said and done they're just predictions. All the like's of myself and Rugbyears can hope for is a quick turn around. Probably won't happen but then who could have predicted the Oil price trend over the last year or so!

The real question is.....if I could turn back would I?????Logic and common sense says YES YOU BLOODY FOOL! But sadly trying to apply common sense to spending 60k+ on any vocational training without any sort of promise of a job at the end is a hopeless excercise! I'm a modular student so I'm thinking about delaying the IR after I finish my CPL. Decision's decision's!!!

:confused::confused::confused:

[Rugbyears]

I concur sincerely with your sentiments – I obviously harbour the desire to stagnate the cog wheel of training, however, I maintain this ever-present concern of the 'AGE' factor. I accept it would be foolish to adopt a gung-ho approach to training, rather prolonging the process, although, I retain the notion that the longer I take to complete, the older I am!!! The mere notion of a 34 year old competing with presently unemployed pilots as well as those younger chaps when the aviation field demonstrates signs of a resurge is terrifying! :)

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

I don't know who has made you so paranoid about your age but I'm the same age you are and regularly fly with first officers who are significantly older than I am. Ex-military types are usually very late 30's by the time they hit the airline recruiters desk. Its no impediment. Age discrimination is now illegal. Few airlines now expect to recruit and retain for an entire 40 year career. You'll most likely pay for your type rating one way or another anyway.

Your lapsed IR is more likely going to be the snag than your sub 40 age.


I have pumped out a strongly bearish message now for 18 months. Many take the view that I'm variously enjoying doing so, motivated by shadenfraude, showing off, am a pessimist by nature or glory in doom mongering to Wannabes from a position of immunity. None of which is true. Every Wannabe caught out by this crisis, every dream that is turning to nightmare, is a tragedy. My heart goes out to those for whom their wannabe ambitions prove to be a personal ruination. This industry is vicious and cruel at times and you can do nothing about it bar discounting the ill fortune of your timing.

The storm will pass and the only game in town is keeping afloat until that day.


WWW

[disco87]

This article has some interesting point and predictions in it.

Air travel: Ryanair reported to OFT as 'anti-consumer' as aviation industry gloom deepens | Business | The Guardian (http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2009/mar/22/ryanair-watchdog-consumer-air-travel-recession-slump) (http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2009/mar/22/ryanair-watchdog-consumer-air-travel-recession-slumphttp://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2009/mar/22/ryanair-watchdog-consumer-air-travel-recession-slump)

[TheBeak]

Another article (from a useless newspaper) to make you feel happy:

Heathrow's third runway: planning for aviation boom times is no way to deal with economic bust | Environment | guardian.co.uk (http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/mar/17/heathrow-third-runway)

The most relevant portion being:

Anyway, the crux of my argument was pithily summed up by easyJet's Stelios Haji-Ioannou. He said: "We are not Aldi or Lidl. It's very difficult to stop eating in a recession but you can stop flying."
Indeed the Guardian reported yesterday (http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2009/mar/16/air-travel-passenger-numbers-down) that "the number of passengers passing through British airports has fallen for the first time since 1991."
A quick scan on Google shows that in the past six months at least 24 airlines have gone bust, and a total of at least 30 in the last year. Just this month, Heathrow's second biggest airline BMI posted a loss of £100m (http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2009/mar/12/bmi-loss) amid "extremely challenging" trading conditions and even the director of the air industry's own trade body IATA, Giovanni Bisignani, has said the "outlook is bleak" and describes a "chronic industry crisis."

Oh what a situation......

[expedite08]

2 whites 2 reds,

You should not have to even think about whether to delay or not! It should be intuative! Are you employed? If so you need to keep your job and head above water! I was 20 hours in to my IR when I pulled the plug! The thought of zero job opportunities whilst shelling out loads of cash was all to much and knocked my motivation and thus I knew in my heart I was not performing as well as I could have.

Were eyebrows raised? Yes of course they were but mainly from those not shelling out the cash and taking the same risk!

As for the future, well Ive got until May 2010 to decide! Im in a good job now, no way am I throwing that away for a lottery! For me my flying future maybe just a hobby/ pocket money earner if I get an instructor rating.

Ive stopped at a point that is recoverable quite easily, as WWW says an aweful lot are in real trouble.

Best of luck to all in what you decide

[Rugbyears]

WWW - I have maintained complete cohesion with your statements, although our viewpoints slightly vary as far as the estimated timescale, I remain in complete support of the message you articulate.

What some may not realise, you are actively informing the wider audience what 'MAY' occur, not what will. Thus, empowering individuals to form an educated assessment of the situation whilst supported by appropriate facts in hand.

I accept you are referred to as Mr Doom and Gloom, rather amusingly may I protest, sadly truth is we are amidst a credit correction, it really is quite that simple! On more then one occasion, you have posted replies empathetic as well as attentive to my training needs, advising plausible avenues of training, you appreciate that there are those too far down the route of training and assist where you can – For this I remain sincerely thankful!!:)

[2 Whites 2 Reds]

expedite08.....

My brain is telling me to stop and go back to work for a while but my heart tells me to soldier on. Coming from a financial background (not a city broker or banker I hasten to add!) the brain wins quite convincingly so I will be going back to work. I'm now well into the CPL so it makes sense to finish it and then assess the situation honestly and objectively before starting with the IR.

Rugbyears.....Don't worry about your age mate, as WWW quite rightly says, there are many many FO's out there far beyond the age of 34. I'm mid 20's and I wouldn't say I have any advantage whatsoever over you. Infact the airline may even appreciate your additional 10 years or life experience so chin up!

Have a good one all!

2W2R :ok:

[TheBeak]

2 whites 2 reds, heres some advice for you then - your brain is made to think and control your actions and your heart is made to pump blood - go with what your brain tells you to do.

[expedite08]

Yes 2 whites 2 reds, complete the CPL. That will give you a good grounding and improve your flying. You have to be firm with your FTO and let them know you are boss if they try and place pressure on you.

[2 Whites 2 Reds]

Yeah I have no problem standing my ground with the FTO. But they've been great thus far with the CPL. Really professional and understanding of the whole situation so I have no worries on that front.

As said above the head does indeed win so there's a pretty good chance I'll be putting things on hold for a bit after CPL's done I'll sit down and assess the whole thing properly when the time comes.

Have a good evening folks.

2W2R :ok:

[quant]

Good morning all, it's a frosty start to the morning but before i begin my usual routine i came across a couple of interesting stories:

Deflation risk as prices to fall (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7959564.stm)

The RPI measure of UK inflation is expected to be negative - a sign of falling prices- when data is released later on Tuesday.
Economists expect the Retail Prices Index (RPI), which includes housing costs, to have declined for the first time in 49 years.
If so, it will raise fears the UK is facing a damaging bout of deflation.
British Airways may be heading for Spain (http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/transport/article5963072.ece)
The Government would not stop British Airways becoming a Spanish company as a result of a merger with Iberia, the Transport Secretary said yesterday.
BA and Iberia, the Spanish flag carrier, are believed to be near to agreeing merger terms in talks that have been continuing since July.
It is thought likely that the airlines would continue to operate as separate brands under a new operating company after the merger. However, it is not clear whether this parent company would be based in Spain or in Britain.
Geoff Hoon, the Transport Secretary, said yesterday: “We would be completely at ease if the companies took this decision [to base in Spain].”


Not surprising as Geoff Hoon is in bed with BAA which is spanish! Anyway i digress i'll leave that debate for the Jet blast part of the forum.

[quant]

Britain has fought off deflation for another month as the Retail Price Index (RPI) (http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article5753844.ece) measure of inflation fell by less than expected, declining from an annual rate of 0.1 per cent to just 0 per cent, it was announced this morning.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) (http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article5753844.ece) gauge of inflation unexpectedly rose, however, to 3.2 per cent, forcing Mervyn King, the Bank of England's Governor, to write another letter to the Chancellor (http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/d/chx_letter_240309.pdf) to explain why inflation is so far above the 2 per cent target.
CPI was up from 3 per cent in January, confounding expectations that it was set to tumble after falling sharply from a peak of 5.2 per cent in September. Official figures reveal that consumer prices were driven up by rising food costs, which observers blamed on the weakness of the pound.


UK economy teeters on brink of deflation - Times Online (http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article5965875.ece)

Out with Labour!

[Grass strip basher]

New IATA forecasts released... pointing to an industry loss of US$4.7bn and passenger numbers down c6% (for their 230 airlines).

On Europe expect capacity cuts of 5%.

.... grim reading... Grim Prospects - Deep Recession, Bigger Losses (http://www.iata.org/pressroom/pr/2009-03-24-01.htm)

“The prospects for airlines are dependant on economic recovery. There is little to indicate an early end to the downturn. It will be a grim 2009. And while prospects may improve towards the end of the year, expecting a significant recovery in 2010 would require more optimism than realism,” said Bisignani.

says it all really....

[Rhodes13]

Topslide this pikey has also gone on to employ a great many crews! Do you think we would have had the boom recently if it wasn't for the likes of RYR and ezy?

Its simple really he;s offering a product the passenger wants. If people didn't like RYR they wouldn't travel on them. Unfortunately cost is the primary factor for most people and they don't give to shakes as to what the pay and conditions are up the front end! Most of the regular punters think we are overpaid bus drivers at the best of times! :rolleyes:

You're kidding yourself if you think MOL is the only reason for the downfall of this profession. The powers that be have been chipping away at it for years and years, we now have accountants and bankers running the show (sound familiar?). How come your not on you high horse about openskies undermining current BA pilots or Aer Lingus opening a UK base on worse terms than the guys in Ireland? Or the latest moves at Ezy to introduce summer only commands or employ through CTC? But hey MOL has been the only one to stuff up this industry? :ugh:

PS how is this relevant to the topic? Surely this should go in some other more appropriate forum?

[BitMoreRightRudder]

You're kidding yourself if you think MOL is the only reason for the downfall of this profession

He's the single biggest reason I can think of. I despise him, what he stands for and the damage he has done to our profession. My airline has just announced a raft of "cost-cutting" measures that bring our working conditions more in line with the sorry state of affairs at RYR. The way that scumbag runs his airline and treats his staff has been set as the benchmark by the management of my airline and no doubt countless others. He is the cancer of aviation and he will be retired, getting fat on his millions, long before the true scale of the damage he has caused to our working lives becomes apparent.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Look, I agree with all this, BUT the thread is about something else. Lets desist here, please start up elsewhere, and keep this to the macro economic level.


And yes. I'd punch his lights out if I met him and could get away with it.



WWW

[Rhodes13]

bitmore I agree overall he hasn't been good for the industry but as I said its a bit stupid to blame one man in this whole state of affairs.

The attack on pilots conditions started well before MOL came on the scene and unfortunately it started with the arrival of accountants in airlines. Look at the US after deregulation of the market. The current pilot market in the states is woeful and we have that to look forward to! Its probably fortunate that its taken so long to get here but slowly but surely we are heading that way. We even have new names for furloughing! Pay for type rating and line training etc all have been in the states for ages are now commonplace here now as well.

Who to blame? Pilots for allowing it to happen or management for doing what their employees allowed them to do, or passengers for wanting the cheapest possible seat at all costs? Or perhaps wannabes willing to sell their soul for the fabled chance to sit in a jet or FTO's for selling a dream at ridiculous costs so that the guy then had no option but to take the only offer on the table?

If you could answer that you would be a great man. Personally I think we all have to share some of the blame! :ouch:

Now as WWW said back to topic.

PS WWW good job on trying to teach the new guys on the perils of spending mum and dads houses on dreams sold by a car salesman :E

[quant]

Gentlemen i want to remind you that it takes 2 to tango! MOL maybe an :mad: but the pilots who jumped right in to pay for their TR are not exactly free of sin either :=

Anyhow back to the thread, www i wanna thank you and the rest for making me see the light and hold off my training for 4-5 years :ok: sshheeesshhh were in a mess :{

[FOD_FATHER]

Hello all,

I am new here and having read thoroughly (more or less) this entire thread i have one simple question - mostly aimed at those who seem to be in the know e.g. WWW et al.

When?

Having endured (and i mean endure!) as a graduate in the financial services for the past 1.5 years - i have now decided to leave the rat race having realised that no one (short of being a disgraced bank chief) will make money there these next few years.

Disgruntled?

Only slightly... I have managed to accrue some valuable experience and contacts in finance and have even managed to pay half of my student loan back as well as saving a tidy £20,000 - all whilst maintaining most of my integrity and bearing fostered by my alma mata (the #1 UAS)

So being a recent graduate + 2.5 years UAS experience (60-70 hours grob + wings) and £20,000 in the bank earning close to negative interest - when do you recommend i take up OAA and 'follow the dream' ???

I should throw this in here now, a friend of mine left to study OAA 1.5 years ago and after months of interviews scored a wonderful job at a recognised airport flying routes into europe - evidence that there is hope for anyone tenacious enough to go toe to toe with the interview boards!!

p.s. any advice on what my flying options are are ofcourse welcome!

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

At the top of this page I posted a table which shows that previous severe economic crisis have house prices taking 5 years to reach their nadir.

I'd take house prices as a reasonable proxy for airline profitability and aim to be job hunting 5 years from the start of the house price crash. Which would be Sept 2012. Three and a half years from now to graduation. Start an Integrated therefore in 2 years time at the earliest. Start modular now but don't do a Multi, IR or ATPL exam for a couple of years.

Its not a brilliant, deeply reasoned plan but its something to hang your hat on.

The trick is not to acquire the time-expiring and expensive elements of your training too soon before the chance of a job becomes reasonable.

WWW

[FOD_FATHER]

Post in error - please ignore

[Lurking123]

I'm not sure about timelines, but my better half works in The City. Interestingly, she tells me that there is an optimistic feeling that commencement of recovery is in sight. For that last year these chaps have been rather melancholy. Of course, these are the same people who managed to get it wrong in the first place. :eek:

PS. Crossing with another thread, I recently secured two FI job offers with relative ease. Not exactly airline flying but, in the current environment, it is free flying.

[FOD_FATHER]

I agree, i would also gauge house prices to be a reasonable and likely indicator of a households expendable cash thus the UK's economy and therefore an airline's profitability.

In which case, my next question is which courses/school? and is modular really the way forward?

I have interviews/selection for CTC and OAA both next month. This is for full time on-site based courses - shall i tell them "no thank you, but see you in 3 years time?"

On an economic note, I have never known a time where the idea of air travel was more prevalent and rife than it is now. With package holidays and prices of flights becoming increasingly competitive and the emergence of cheaper oil/fuel (oil futures) - when coupled with the sheer volume of people just wanting to throw in the towel and escape the UK holiday (over worked families)/travel (unemplyable grads)/permanently relocate (the disgruntled!!) surely this surge is helping somewhat to bolster the airline's balance sheets - after all they cant be operating in the red when they fill all the seats - can they?

p.s. this also works the other way round - as the prospect of foreigners visitng the UK increases due to advantageous exchange rates - again the airlines should be in line to benefit...?

Perhaps we can all spend our way from this mess?!!

(a foolish believer...)

[glazierflyer]

I have just recently moved into an apartment on a new development. I happen to know that the builders halted the development in June 2008.
I would like to be optimistic - and I may be reading too much into it - but building restarted last Monday. :ok:

Any positive sign is very welcome at the moment - no matter how small.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Now I hate to dampen spirits but two point swim to the fore of my furrowed brow.

1) Easter is the MAJOR highlight of the property selling/buying year. More property changes hand in Easter than at any other time. It is the July/August of the of the airline industry. It is the Boxing Day of the High Street retailers. If nothings moving at Easter then woe for the rest of the year. As such all reports of upturns, sales, increasing interest need to be taken in context.


2) Just like the stock market has little rallies all the way down the collapsing slope so does the housing market. In the early 1990s house prices took over 6 years to go from peak to trough but there weren't ever more than two consecutive quarters of decline for most of that period. Its a process of falls and slight recoveries, followed by steeper falls. Green shoots, false dawns - all part of the usual picture I'm afraid. Gross mortgage lending in Feb 2009 was still the dropping and still back in the 1950's. The number of sales (mostly of 45% discounted flats to bargain hunting landlords) is unimportant compared to the monthly gross lending figure. The huge Vested Interests in the property market will spin any pebble of positive data and they're good at it. After all, they were very convincing to most people that there couldn't possibly be a crash...

The property market is screwed, still going down and won't stop until we're 40% off.


WWW

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

'Sick' aviation industry on a flight path to $4.7bn losses, warns IATA


The aviation industry is "structurally sick" and heading for a $4.7bn (£3.2bn) net loss this year, the director general of the International Air Transport Association has warned.

By Alistair Osborne, Business Editor
Last Updated: 8:07PM GMT 24 Mar 2009
Giovanni Bisignani said that, in the space of just three months, IATA had revised down December's forecast of $2.5bn losses to reflect "the rapid deterioration of global economic conditions".
Industry revenues are now expected to fall by 12pc, or $62bn, to $467bn in 2009 – far worse than the decline seen after the 2001 terrorist attacks when revenues fell $23bn to $306bn, a 7pc decli....


'Sick' aviation industry on a flight path to $4.7bn losses, warns IATA - Telegraph (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/transport/5044703/Sick-aviation-industry-on-a-flight-path-to-4.7bn-losses-warns-IATA.html)



Hells teeth. You couldn't get it spelled out any more clearly really.

:( :(


WWW


:E ps - did someone around here last year say that the oil price was a sideshow and that it would be falling demand that was going to be the main event or am I getting confused? :E

[Grass strip basher]

"I'm not sure about timelines, but my better half works in The City. Interestingly, she tells me that there is an optimistic feeling that commencement of recovery is in sight. For that last year these chaps have been rather melancholy."

I can tell you the focus in the city at the moment is firmly on surviving the next round of jobs cuts that will be coming in the next 2-3 weeks.

It is end of the first financial quarter and the knife is about to fall again. With headcount already down c30-40% at most big investment banks another 10% means that if you were "average" last year (in a pool of individuals with "3A stars" and a 1st class degree as many folks have) you are now sat in the firing line.... on a positive note we are probably 2/3rds of the way through the job cuts in the city so surviving the next wave of headcount reduction will be a relief for many.

As for the bear market rally... the last time we saw 7-8% moves in a day on the major market indices like we saw this week was back in the Great Depression. Volatility is a sign of uncertainty in markets and whilst I hate to p8ss on your parade this is a bear market rally.... just that.... give me the 1-2% moves on a daily basis that we are used to in "normal" times.

When we have paid down or inflated away c20-30% of the debt we have accumulated we will be in better shape. Buy a house now if you like.... if you can get 30-40% off the asking price :oh:

[quant]

Interestingly, she tells me that there is an optimistic feeling that commencement of recovery is in sight.

Tell her to stop smoking whatever she is smoking :sad:

Airline losses forecast to hit $4.7bn in 2009 (http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/transport/article5965832.ece)

The outlook for airlines is worsening, says the International Air Transport Association (IATA) which is doubling its estimate of the industry's losses in 2009 to $4.7 billion (£3.1 billion), due to rapidly deteriorating economic conditions.
Demand for air travel is falling everywhere, says IATA, except in the Middle East but even there - where traffic is expected to grow by 1 per cent - losses will mount because of a 3.8 per cent increase in airline capacity.
Across the globe, IATA is forecasting that airlines will suffer a $62 billion decline in revenue in 2009 to $467 billion, almost three times the decline registered after the September 11 attacks and the health scares in Asia.
Between 2000 and 2002, the airline industry suffered a $23 billion fall in revenue.

[Lurking123]

GSB, interesting. In the area she works in they are most definitely keeping/seeking resource.

PS. Did I say I was optimistic? I just recounted what my wife said.

[Grass strip basher]

Fair point Lurking... banking is like engineering... there are many different areas of speciality. Unfortunately this moronic government lumps them all in together and blames "bankers" per se as the source of all evil to direct attention away from their own failings.

For example in engineering you have mechanical, chemical, production, civil engineers etc etc... in banking you have retail bankers, corporate bankers, wealth management advisors, hedge funds, investment banks, private equity, even specialist charity bankers etc etc.... all very very different roles.

In many ways blaming certain bankers for the collapsing financial system is like blaming the plumber who put in a toilet when a factory burns down..... pathetic

Also I can tell you that EVERYONE who was in someway repsonsible for this mess is already out of a job.... except for 1 individual.... I even know his address.... 10 Downing street....

[Lurking123]

Oh, didn't I say - Compliance! :cool:

[Grass strip basher]

... insolvency, debt resturcturing and debt collections are other rapidly growing areas!

[Sciolistes]

Unfortunately this moronic government lumps them all in together and blames "bankers" per se as the source of all evil to direct attention away from their own failings.
Although two governments of the 80's were instrumental in crating the environment in which such a problem could come to pass, it was the banks what did it. There were four facets to the problem:

1) those that created the credit products and sold them to house buying punters who couldn't afford them
2) those who de-risked those products
3) those who unwittingly bought extremely risky products
4) those that saw the whole thing unfolding and betted against those risks.

1, 2 and 4 were in the US, 3 were most US and European banks. Given that most of the the people who created and traded these products couldn't see what was unfolding (those that did kept quiet, they were making billions), it is highly doubtful that any government could have done anything about it other than change the rules which was never going to happen.

As an aside, Alex's posts strike a cord with me, he is absolutely correct that experts are by and large fake, charlatans who feign knowledge but who in reality are clueless and consequentially dangerous. They all got it wrong, even Mr Buffet so what chance does some unknown minor league fund manager or some witty Times report have. Give up with the literal news links and read between the lines.

Personal opinion: Europe is in a bad way, the UK appears finished the US will come out of this first and strongest. But don't underestimate the banks, they'll make things work for them and subsequently for you and I...eventually. In the world of finance and industry, the government always has been and always will be nothing more than a new F/O on the jump seat hanging on to the tail.

[quant]

Roll on the general election!

here here! :D I've been a life long labour voter but not anymore! Conservatives are my party of choice.

[Grass strip basher]

Sociolistes don't disagree with a word you have said.
Unfortunately it is the government though that sets the rules.... unfortunately the average IQ of government official is someway below that of the average bank employee.

Agree UK is screwed for a number of years... even the BoE is admitting it (see Kings comments yesterday). Avaiation industry is in a mess... even the IATA admit it.

This game in "the City" is all about information.... some get it faster than others due to better access etc. Whether you are an "expert" or not is irrelevent.... you take the information you get and interpret it yourself and make your own mind up. Pprune is just another source of "information" take it or leave it....

My gripe with Alex's posts is that often they provide little "information".... other than to say "you aren't experts"....maybe but at least folks try and provide information from a variety of sources that enable folks to formulate their own view.

Also he works for a flight training organisation with a vested interest in getting bums on seats to pay the mortgage..... he could offer insights as to number of students passing through the system, conversations he has with airlines as to likely recruitment needs etc.... but he chooses not to.... maybe because it wouldn't be good for business.

[Blindside]

If GB annoys you at least you know that someone (party politics aside) has said what you might like to say :)

Click play on the video.

Whoops! Browser Settings Incompatible (http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/daniel_hannan/blog/2009/03/24/so_i_said_to_gordon_brown_i_said)

[rogerg]

Blindside (http://www.pprune.org/members/27798-blindside)

Blo---dy brilliant

[Sciolistes]

A sort of George Galloway, but with some class :ok:

[Kash360]

Amazing video!!! I totally agree...

[quant]

It's not all bad as a few of us have made some money from Barclays :D

Intrepid investors who bet on UK banks three weeks ago can count their profits (http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/banking_and_finance/article5989277.ece)

Opportunistic investors who bought into British banks three weeks ago are sitting on huge profits in the wake of a spectacular £23 billion rally of Britain's five biggest banks, led by Barclays, which surged again yesterday after a confident statement that it would not need fresh capital.

Enough to pay for 2 type ratings infact :p

[quant]

Further evidence of this downturn emerged over the weekend when BA confirmed that it had parked two Boeing 747 jets at Cardiff airport. The jumbos, worth more than £140 million each, have had their engines covered and doors sealed as the airline awaits for passenger numbers to pick up.

BA and Iberia merger talks are idling on the tarmac - Times Online (http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/article5998641.ece)

The news is getting grim :(

[no sponsor]

That's not new news. The aircraft have been there for some time now. The first was parked in Nov 08. BA actually announced they were parking 2 -400s in Aug due to changing equipment over the winter period (as 777 replaced some -400 routes).

[K.Whyjelly]

According to corporate restructuring expert Begbies Traynor, seven British airlines with a combined turnover of more than £25 million are in danger of going bust in the near future.

Another sixteen airlines are said to be facing 'significant' problems - including impending court actions and overdue accounts - as the industry struggles to cope with the recession.

Nigel Atkinson, a partner at Begbies Traynor, said: 'Demand for flights has fallen dramatically and carriers are frantically adjusting their capacity accordingly.'

Atkinson believes the list of failed airlines, such as Zoom, XL and Silverjet, will get significantly longer this year as the downturn worsens.

'It is remarkable there have been few examples as yet of dramatic downsizing or collapse, but the smaller airlines with no commercial viability or visible benefits to an acquirer will undoubtedly fail,' he said.

Maybe WWW's prediction will come to fruition......................:(

[wobble2plank]

As has already been stated, the two 747-400's were planned to be parked up as the oil price hit its unprecedented peaks last year. The reason being that BA are about to start taking delivery of the somewhat more frugal 777-300ER's which will replace the thirsty 747-400's on those routes beginning in the summer season.

The talks with Iberia are now detailing what the 'TopCo' company should be and how it is to be put together. An incredibly complex merger with much of the negotiation being kept from the public eye. Bear in mind that the biggest Iberia shareholders are some of the Spanish banks who have been badly burned by the financial melt down and hence are being belligerent about the Spanish percentile deal.

Times are painful but don't let all the rumour and speculation go to your head.

Oh, and I loved the video!!!! When are we going to see 'sail stupid' on the gates to Felixstowe as most of those hulking beasts are steaming around the world with 1960's heavy fuel oil engines belching clouds of smoke and rubbish.

Never, old GB has managed to make our industry the 'public enemy no.1'. The industry needs tax breaks and now.

[Grass strip basher]

Am hearing that a German carrier has gone out of business (Blue wings). It operated 9-10 pretty new A320 and had another 15-20 on order..... that dumps another load of qualified pilots onto the market.... there will be more :sad:

[Greg2041]

Good news. Thomas Cook shares are on the rise. Barclays shares have tripled in the last few weeks. A real mixed bag but the gurus in financial engineering are suggesting that a recovery will begin at the later part of this year. In reality this will take a couple of years to filter through but it won't be doom and gloom forever.

Greg

[getoffmycloud]

Which gurus in financial engineering are these and what is their argument?

[TheBeak]

Thomas Cook Cut At Goldman As Demand Weakens




LONDON -- Goldman Sachs cut its rating on U.K. travel agent Thomas Cook Group to sell from buy, saying demand is visibly deteriorating across all regions and it doesn't believe there has been enough capacity contraction outside of the U.K. to offset the decline. The broker also told clients that the group's "vertically integrated model" is vulnerable in a downturn because capacity is less flexible.

I see they ARE up 6% today but big deal when they have such a small difference between their 52 week high and low and they have a pretty low share price. It's all relative - like incest. And they are coming up to peak season......The industry is screwed.

[quant]

gurus in financial engineering are suggesting that a recovery will begin at the later part of this year.

Gordon?....

:ugh:

[quant]

good news everyone :}

House prices rose last month for the first time in 16 months, according to figures from the Nationwide Building Society today.
The price of a typical house increased by 0.9 per cent to £150,946 in March in contrast to February when month-on-month house prices fell by 1.9 per cent.
The unexpected rally lowers the annualised rate of house price declines from 17.6 per cent to 15.7 per cent.
Nationwide welcomed the tentative sign of stability, but added, "It is far too soon to see this as evidence that the trough of the market has been reached."

Howard Archer, chief UK and European economist at IHS Global Insight, agreed that while it is important not to read too much into the surprise rise, he said "there are increasing signs that the housing market may have passed its worst point, helped by the substantial fall in house prices from their 2007 peak levels and markedly reduced mortgage rates."


UK house prices rise for first time in 16 months - Times Online (http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/construction_and_property/article6019883.ece)

[ZeBedie]

helped by ..... markedly reduced mortgage rates.

Some foolish buyers are obviously expecting rates to stay low. But when inflation gets going, rates will head up dramatically, quickly followed by house prices moving in the opposite direction.

[disco87]

56 min..... not bad at all

[RVR800]

Things are impoving rapidly

Now wheres WWW we need to be told that fuel will rise to $300 before xmas house prices will fall 50%; this is just a temprary blip that inflation will soar and all airloines will fail; even Easyjet and Ryanair notwithstanding their continuing profits.... yea yea yea

[Grass strip basher]

If you really really think things are improving then please feel free to spend thousands on an ME/IR and take a bet as to what the recruitment market will look like in 12 months.

As for house prices.... didn't we get this uptick in Jan... and then Feb was the biggest monthly fall on record....

Green shoots of recovery my arse. UK households have MORE debt now than they had 6 months ago and with rising unemployment less ability to repay it.

Wake up.:=:oh:

What does it take to convince some people as to the desparately poor state of economic affairs in the UK???

[mus3bgj]

What does it take to convince some people as to the desparately poor state of economic affairs in the UK???

The state of the economy is poor due to the fact that confidence is low because of the fact that we are told day in day out how bad things are by the media and people like you. People are scared to spend. A little bit of positivity could go a long way.

[Parson]

A 1% increase in house prices last month isn't going to stop more airlines going bust this year. Nor is it going to trigger hiring of low hours pilots.

[v6g]

I'm noticing evidence of an upturn on a world scale (my personal index of world trade, the "Number of cargo ships waiting to enter Vancouver Harbour", is almost back up to normal levels), but I'm more doubtful that the UK can recover anytime soon. I can't see anything that the UK actually does anymore. Manufacturing....nope. Financial services .... nope. What is the UK economy going to be based on now?

[TheBeak]

The state of the economy is poor due to the fact that confidence is low because of the fact that we are told day in day out how bad things are by the media and people like you. People are scared to spend. A little bit of positivity could go a long way.

Are you kidding me? How did confidence get low in order for it to effect the economy in the first place? We are told day in day out that things are bad because they are. Why do people find it so hard to believe that we are in an absolute shocker of a recession if not a depression? People that try and spread false confidence are con artists not optimists. Get real. Have you tried to get a job recently? In anything let alone flying? It is nigh on impossible, not even as a cleaner or in a supermarket.

All of that aside and I am not at the point yet, and, I don't intend to get anywhere near the point but would it have an affect in being recruited by an airline if one were to go bankrupt? Given the scheme of things......

[rogerg]

Manufacturing....nope. Financial services .... nope. What is the UK economy going to be based on now

How about a large bit of each Airbus + the engines for them and Boeing and all the other bits. It used to be better but could be worse!

[TheBeak]

And if you REALLY do not think the world ecomony is all that bad just wait until GM and Chrysler go bust. The automobile industry employs over 10000000 workers in America. Americas unemployment rate will go through the roof and then, maybe then, people will start to realise the mess we are in. And what a load of cack Obama is. But we will see.

[Alex Whittingham]

GM and Chrysley employ 140,000 workers in the US, Grauniad (http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2009/mar/30/general-motors-rick-wagoner). Where did the remaining nine million, eight hundred and sixty thousand come from?

[TheBeak]

I said the automobile industry employs over 10000000 not Chrystler and GM. Re-read it.

[Alex Whittingham]

Oh very clever, so you're suggesting that the remaining 9,860,000 workers will stop manning gas stations and changing tyres. Absurd. Get a life.

[clear prop!!!]

GSB UK households have MORE debt now than they had 6 months ago

can you elaborate??? not quite in line with current stats in relation to mortgage balance reductions etc.

[MIKECR]

Hmmm....the 40% of Uk mortgage holders who have tracker mortgages would probably beg to differ with GSB's statement. Myself and better half, like many other mortgage holders, actually find ourselves 100's of pounds better off per months thanks to the current economic situation.

Whilst I dont advocate running out today and blowing 1000's on integrated training....there really is some serious pie in the sky sh1t on this thread! :ugh:

[getoffmycloud]

Clear Prop "do we have more debt"? Who do you think is going to have to repay all this money the government is borrowing???? Of course we have bucket loads more debt.... might not be a mortgage but you will still have to repay it via higher taxes in the future..... call it Gordon Brown's legacy for the future. :yuk:. Look at what is happening in Ireland... they have a budget deificit similar to the UK's (way ahead of everyone else)... they at least have to bollocks to start cutting wages and public sector jobs.

Alex it is not just the people who work for GM and Crysler.... there are showrooms, part suppliers, etc etc all who will be impacted. You have been banging on about how the bears have been wrong for months and today we are likely to see the US print its biggest jump in unemployment for over 25 years.

[TheBeak]

Thank you getoutofmycloud, exactly. And we had better hope that it doesn't happen.

[quant]

but things are going to improve.

here here! :)

[TheBeak]

Interesting to note that even George Soros (oft quoted amongst the negative posts on this thread) admitted last night that the G20 summit was a gamechanger and that the tide is beginning to turn.

The G20 Summit achieved a 160 point rise in the FTSE and by 0900 this morning it had lost 40 of the points. Watch the rest disappear over today/ tomorrow. It is just more money for the gamblers to lose. You can't beat nature. This correction unfortunately needs to happen and IT WILL.

[ZeBedie]

MIKECR - enjoy the cheap mortgage - it won't last, will it?

[MIKECR]

ZeBedie,

Nope, of course it wont last. For the immediate future however it looks as
though the interest rates will remain low. No surprises then that mortgage lenders are refusing to hand out trackers just now.

But for now, im making hay while the sun shines.

[pilotmike]

A squeak from TheBeak:-

The G20 Summit achieved a 160 point rise in the FTSE and by 0900 this morning it had lost 40 of the points.

Why do you feel the need to make up figures that are so easy for anyone to check? Do you feel it helps you to make a convincing argument?

The FTSE100 closed at 4125 last night. At 0900 today it was 4104, just 21 points down; not the 40 points that you claim and would clearly like us to believe. OK, so it did drop to a low of 4094 some 10 minutes earlier, but that is just 31 points lower - still not the 40 points that you would like us to believe.

Possibly maths, observation and accurate reporting are not your best subjects - much like our politicians?

Watch the rest disappear over today/ tomorrow.

It is presently climbing through 4023, probably soon to pass yesterday's closing high of 4025. We're all still watching - are you?

[MIKECR]

Not quite true Topslide - there arent doubtless people getting cheap mortgages just now. People ARENT getting mortgages full stop. Those that are, certainly arent getting low interest rates. I suggest you actually look at some of the lenders deals on offer. The tracker and low interest bank variable rate deals were offered long before the economic situation hit the fan. Lenders pulled the plug on those deals months ago. If you want to buy property just now then you need a whopping great deposit to get anything nearer a low interest rate. And that of course is one of the big problems just now with the property slump...there's no movement in the system because people cant get a decent mortgage.

[TheBeak]

http://www.londonstockexchange.com/LSECWS/ifspages/FiReChart.aspx?sym=1191205.FTSE&p=id&w=235&h=96&fld=T&bgr=246&bgg=246&bgb=246 (javascript: var x=openWin2('/LSECWS/IFSPages/HistoricalChartPopup.aspx?sym=1191205.FTSE', 'HistoricalChart', 505, 505, 'status=no,resizable=no,menubar=no,scrollbars=0'))

Look just before 0900 pilotmike......It is clearly above 4120 and below 4100. I said it as I saw it. Sorry there was clearly a little parallax error there. And as has been said there are always little rallies in the market - just watch Mike my friend and come back and say sorry in a couple of days.xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxx

[pilotmike]

TheBeak - some points for you:

Why am I supposed to say sorry to you for pointing out that you exaggerated a drop of 21 points, claiming it to be 40?

There is no such thing as parallax error on LCD screens - the error is in your wilful misreporting. Since when did a drop from 4120 to 4100 represent a drop of 40? As I said, maths, observation and accurate reporting clearly aren't your best subjects.

I hadn't considered myself 'your friend' on the basis of this exchange. There is no need for your patronising tone.

Possibly best summed up by Alex W when he said to you:Absurd. Get a life.

[Lurking123]

Yep, someone deleted mine as well. Obviously my suggestion to look at 12 months worth of data rather than a couple of hours wasn't worthy. So, not only do we have a thread with ill-informed tripe, we have a thread that is being manipulated.

I wonder how long this post will last.

[lpokijuhyt]

Quit living in fantasy-land. There is a huge surplus of unemployed pilots on the market with thousands of hours and many different Type Ratings. If you are currently not flying for a living now, then you probably won't for at least 2 more years. If you don't pull your head out of the sand and get a job(any kind of job) that pays, NOW ...then you will go deeper into debt than you already currently are. The pay for pilots will continue to go down along with quality of life....why....because there will always be some other person out there who will be willing to do your job for less....remember this. Why do you think the pay for a type rating....er, sorry, "Cadet program" is the way all airlines are going. It's because the airlines know that all it took was 1 person to do this and it would then be accepted as a standard. At least they called it something really really cool and official sounding like "cadet program" Trust me this is not standard. If you did this in a place like the US, the other pilots would take your name and your life would be hell.
Sorry to rain on your little parade folks, but this is what this industry has become....:bored:

[tonker]

YouTube - Tony Blair sings "Things Can Only Get Better" (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yDMJHYKrHNA)


:hmm:

[getoffmycloud]

Recovery??...... BA March passenger volumes down | Reuters (http://uk.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idUKTRE5323IH20090403)

[davepearsall]

getoffmycloud - I think Keith.Williams was referring to the green shoots in more general economic terms rather than aviation related.

[quant]

British Airways said traffic dropped 7.3 per cent last month due to continuing challenging market conditions and added that 300 staff would leave the airline by the end of May as part of a voluntary redundancy scheme announced earlier this year.

Elsewhere Ryanair, the low cost Irish airline, said it carried 4.7 million passengers last month, 5 per cent more than last year, but that its planes were emptier, with its load factor falling to 77 per cent compared to 79 per cent in 2008.



BA traffic falls 7% in March as 300 staff leave (http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/transport/article6030256.ece) :8

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

I'm offline moving house so moderation is being handled by others.

I'm having the bunker extended and widening the bullion vault...

Www

[99jolegg]

A little off topic here but it's a video that is well worth the watch...

The Crisis of Credit Visualized (http://www.crisisofcredit.com/)

[JohnRayner]

Useful link. Cheers. Pitched right at my level of perception of the financial sector!

[quant]

good news everyone:

Hopes that Britain could soon emerge from the worst of the recession rose yesterday as the slump in the services sector eased and businesses reported readier access to credit.

Hopes of an end to recession lift as downturn in services sector eases - Times Online (http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article6032287.ece)

[PPRuNe Towers]

And don't ever get too misty eyed about the good times either:

http://www.pprune.org/interviews-jobs-sponsorship/367340-old-thread-sad.html

[quant]

And don't ever get too misty eyed about the good times either:

An Old Thread that was sad (http://www.pprune.org/interviews-jobs-sponsorship/367340-old-thread-sad.html)

What's sad about it? :cool:

[PPRuNe Towers]

When times are good there is a startlingly high number of wannabees who qualify but never work for a living.

Everyone who's working now can think of a few.

[Mikehotel152]

Can't we rename this thread?

The original thread was called Growing Evidence That The Downturn Is Upon Us and this thread was was started as a tonic by those who were fed up with the constant negativity and felt there were reasons to be optimistic.

However, it now seems that the loudest voices are those whose agendas are at odds with the theme of the thread. The very same people must be the sort who either already have jobs or have no interest in getting one, so one can only assume their motives for posting 'I told you so' or 'You should give up now' comments are not genuine.

If things don't change, how about renaming this thread 'A thread for Moaners and Clever Dicks' and remove it from the Wannabes section of Pprune? :p

[getoffmycloud]

Mikehotel152

This thread is about trying to give information about the current state of the industry from those that are either currently working in aviation or folks who are kind enough to work in other professions but possess a pashion for aviation and are therefore willing to share their knowledge.

From what I can tell you have just finished your training into the biggest downturn in several decades and don't like what you are reading. You probably don't like what you find..... not a chocolate tea pot in hells chance of getting a job. This thread is aimed at stopping others suffering your fate until things pick up.

If the truth makes you uncomfortable suck it up and stop bitching about those that warned you 12 months ago about what was coming.

Anyway 100-1 outsider wins the national... you might get lucky. I'm now going to finish drinking myself into gibbering wreck watching Liverpool spank Fulham.... :p

[Mikehotel152]

So, Mr Topslide6, you're one of those people who chooses to use insulting language as a matter of course, regardless of the circumstance and irrespective of the impression it gives of your own character. Brilliant. I hope I don't ever share a cockpit with you.

The fact that the person who started the thread couldn't see anything to be cheerful about doesn't mean they weren't fed up with the other thread.

And Getoffmycloud, which one are you? The Clever Dick or the Pompous :mad:? I may have just finished training but that's neither here nor there. By the way, I don't think you need booze to act like a gibbering wreck...and please learn to spell.

The fact that the current job situation is dire doesn't mean that those who have a passion for Aviation should not train to become professional pilots. It is one thing to enlighten wannabes; quite another to bray with obvious delight about the situation.

When I started training 28 months ago things were not this bad and, in any case, if the other 100 applicants (assuming 100-1 as you suggest) for my first job show your arrogant conceit, I don't think I'll have any problem getting a job. :ok:

Your replies simply show the haughty arrogance of so many people on Pprune.

By the way, did you not see the light-hearted tongue on my post?

[Mikehotel152]

Well, thank you for the luck. I will need it. ;)

In the interests of those who might be reading this and have yet to commit themselves to a training course, I shall elaborate. 28 months from Day 1 of the PPL to the end of the MCC is not abnormal. The fact that I have not delayed any part of my training is because it would not have been appropriate in my circumstances. For other, younger, ladies and gentlemen it might be a sensible course to take.

As to the 'braying' remark I made. You will find many, many similar comments on this thread. Plenty of people have reacted to the endless negativity on here. Not everyone agrees with certain people on this thread who regularly pour scorn on the plans and dreams of others. It is not the fact that they bring a little reality to the rosey dreams of hundreds of Wannabes that annoys me and many others, it is the manner with which they make those comments.

My personal circumstance are fine. Yes, it's depressing to spend so much money, time and effort on a dream only to find things are even tougher than you anticipated, but my optimism will keep me going. I don't have money problems because I planned carefully and had a bit of luck. I didn't follow my dream blindly! By all means paint an honest picture to the Wannabes on this website, but do it with good humour. Please.

[121ace]

Teletubbies :cool:

[Mikehotel152]

Hmmm, perhaps humour isn't the most appropriate word in the context of so many redundancies; it was late at night when I posted. Perhaps benevolent would be more apt.

As for our perspectives being poles apart, I am fully aware of the state of the industry and I am desperately sorry for those who are made redundant. Poles apart? I don't know. We're all in a :mad: situation.

I hope you keep your job.

[Computer says NO!]

"I don't think I'll have any problem getting a job."


Oh dear.... :ugh:

Unfortunatly theres no telling some people.

[Kelly Hopper]

Despite it being the worst possible time in the most competitive industry there is with countless pilots not working and newgrads who never will work it does amuse me to read someone say "I will have no problem getting a job."
Now you obviously know something that I and many others do not. Pray tell, what little secret do you have? Starting your own airline maybe? In which case can I be your righthand man? At least it will pay the bills for a week or two before it fails!
Seriously though, you have no idea mate!

[quant]

Cheer up people it will get better!

[Sciolistes]

Now you obviously know something that I and many others do not. Pray tell, what little secret do you have?
Errm, Kelly and Computer, there's a little thing called context that you've selectively chosen not to quote ;)

[Mikehotel152]

Yeah, Sciolistes, even I was shocked at my over confidence for a moment! :E .... then I realised there was a significant part of the quote missing! I'd rather not be tarred with that arrogant brush thanks. I'm actually a nice guy and very much a realist, even if I hate having bad news rammed down my throat on a daily basis. :(

[JohnRayner]

BBC NEWS | Business | UK deficit 'more than predicted' (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7984889.stm)

You know, I sometimes think the only major difference between me and some peasant from 1000 years ago are:

1) I'm generally a bit less smelly

2) Fear of god has been replaced by fear of debt/ repo.

Happy Days. :D

[spinnaker]

About a 1000 years ago King Canute came to rule. I cant help but think we have a reincarnation.

At the same time the Y1K virus caused mayhem and the letter 'W' of the alphabet entered beta testing.

Here is a typical house of the period Link (http://www.green-acres.com/en/properties/746a-mor1206.htm)

[disco87]

That looks like a nightmare to heat during the winter

[spinnaker]

And a 1000 years ago, just like today, there were no airline jobs to pay for it. :eek:

[quant]

Good news everyone:

Two million Britons are expected to go abroad this Easter, up 20 per cent on last year, with tomorrow expected to be the busiest day at UK airports.

Tim Williamson, customer director for Thomson and First Choice, said: “Our customers have told us that they regard their annual holiday as a necessity rather than a luxury, and that despite the difficult financial climate, they are still determined to travel.”

The most popular long-haul destinations for British Airways (http://www.ba.com/) this weekend are New York, LA and Hong Kong, while the short-haul routes that will be busiest are Edinburgh, Paris and Geneva.

Two million Britons pack their bags in Easter exodus -Times Online (http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/travel/news/article6060720.ece)

might this be the 2 million unemployed :confused::} (i guess it's one way to spend your jobseekers and other allowances :hmm:)

[Xulu]

Well, while there is high unemployment etc, the vast majority are still employed on full pay taking advantage of the lower cost of living.

Holiday seasons will always be popular, as linked, most households see it as a necessity. Its year round business and weekend breaks that are down, not family holidays.

[Mikehotel152]

Hey, can I sign on too? I mean, I've finished my training and need an income?! :)

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

In the last recession Air Europe, then the largest tour operator in the UK, went bust.

In every previous business cycle the downward turn has resulted in several airlines going bust in the UK. Quite often household name ones. You either think;



1) XL Airways plus SilverJet is it, or

2) To match the seriousness of the present economic contraction history suggest there are several more airlines to go disappear yet, or

3) That its different this time


There's an argument to be had I suppose but 2) seems most likely to me. Its the unemployment curve that you need to watch and its going from 2m to 3m in short order..

WWW

[quant]

Hey, can I sign on too? I mean, I've finished my training and need an income?! http://static.pprune.org/images/smilies/smile.gif

A friend of mine is a newly qualified doctor and he can't get work. He went to the job centre to sign on and they said to him why don't you take a customer service job :} bloody hell if their saying that to dr's perhaps they want pilots to drive minicabs :oh:

[dartagnan]

I am not surprised of this recession at all(call depression)...
1)for years, in europe , people are struggling with less 1500 euro/month for 50% of french citizen just as an exemple.
2)in the USA, people were living with more than they can afford.
3)in greece they live with 600 euro a month, and in some countries unemployment rate is over 40%.
4)Then add the golden welcomes, the golden parachutes,...and jobs leaving to china where they exploit chinese people.
5) madhof' scams, ponzy schemes...
6) jobs leaving to china

1+2+3+4+5+6:= a major crisis.

what make me laugh, it s people who say it s all ok, that people who lost their job, are the blue worker, but if you are qualified, You can get a job.

What they don't get, it s when industries close and move to china, it' s the jobs as engineer, technicians(not only the blue workers),...which move to china, and they ask you if you are willing to move there and be paid 300$ /month.

so if you are a blue worker or an engineer, you loose your job.

the only way to go around this, it s to bloke china to sell their crap to europe. say to the industries, that if they want sell their **** in europe, they have to produce in europe/USA.

China is in my point of view, the biggest problem for us and actualy our politicians dont want or don't want see where the problem is....just injecting money, will help, but it wont be enough. we have to keep our industries in europe/USA specially when their QQ (the cheap chinese cars) are coming soon.

[Mikehotel152]

In answer to quant, IIRC the real reason for signing-on is something to do with NI payments so you get your full pension when you retire...if there are such things in 40 years time...:confused:

We may chuckle at your Doctor friend being asked to consider a customer services job, but I wouldn't be surprised if he were turned down for being over-qualified in any event.

I was thinking of going for a mystery shopper position. £15 an hour for pretending to buy stuff. Certainly beats not being paid to look around shops and not buying things, which is what I do now anyway...:}

[quant]

We may chuckle at your Doctor friend being asked to consider a customer services job, but I wouldn't be surprised if he were turned down for being over-qualified in any event.


Strangely enough he went for it and got it as a temporary measure while he starts to payoff his loan :8 and look for that all important fy1 position (probably in Australia)

good luck with that mystery shopping position beats working in mcdonalds i guess :}

[Mikehotel152]

Ha ha ha. I'm up against some pretty tough competition!

Mind you, McDonalds isn't such a bad idea. Free grub and a smart uniform. Plus, join now and you'll beat the rush when the next swathe of pilots are made redundant...:E

[2 Whites 2 Reds]

dartagnan.......

Your analysis of the situation is grim but sadly fairly accurate. The only point I would raise is the future of China. Taiwan is actually the new China. In 2007/2008 the Chinese implemented (and actually enforced) some serious new legislation regarding both working conditions and factory pollution levels. This has lead to a number of factories actually being shut down over night and the ones that remained open have been forced to raise their export prices to cover the costs of cleaning up their act and adhering to the new pay and conditions for their staff.

Take this example...China is the world's largest producer of pet products. Raw hide dog chews, rubber toys and plastics in particular. All of which create massive amounts of pollution which was previously dumped in the local rivers. Now that this is being stamped out, manufacturers are sourcing factories in Taiwan where legislation is still years behind China. As a result the new job creation will be in Taiwan if the other industries using the same materials follow suite, which I suspect they will.

So.....anyone got a job recently or is that a silly question????

Have a great Easter all, at least that bloody bunny's got real job security year on year!

2W2R :ok:

[joe.bloggs]

Just spoke to a buddy of mine at a low cost - all flights are full. Keep em coming

[mysteryshopper]

I picked my user name when I first joined PPRuNe as I was a mystery shopper at the time. It was a perfect job for me while I was completing my modular training during the last downturn after 911. Mostly I did financial product (mortgages, loans and associated insurance) mystery shopping which was a bit more challenging than ordering a Big Mac and fries and timing how quick the queue was!
I had to go into branches of banks and building societies, show interest in a certain product and describe a predefined financial situation and have an customer interview with a financial advisor(FA). I was assessing customer service skills of any staff member I encountered, the FA's ability to recommend a suitable product as well as ensuring compliance with the financial ombudsman guidelines at the time. It was hard work but fascinating and entirely on my own time schedule so it fitted in with the studying well. I didn't get paid (around 30 pounds per interview) if they cottoned on to what I was doing which made it challenging. The company I worked for used to give me a list of branches in my county for me to work through so with some planning I could get through 3 or 4 a day. Sadly they have ceased trading now but I am sure there are others out there.

Cheers.

[Blindside]

BBC NEWS | UK | Downturn 'hits regional airports' (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/7994464.stm)

[quant]

Nuclear-powered aircraft may sound like a concept from Thunderbirds, but they will be transporting millions of passengers around the world later this century, the leader of a Government-funded project to reduce environmental damage from aviation believes.
The consolation of sitting a few yards from a nuclear reactor will be non-stop flights from London to Australia or New Zealand, because the aircraft will no longer need to land to refuel. The flights will also produce no carbon emissions and therefore make no contribution to global warming.

Nuclear-powered passenger aircraft 'to transport millions' says expert - Times Online (http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/environment/article5024190.ece)

Someone please tell them that airplanes crash! I personally think it's a ludicrous idea :sad::=

[Philpaz]

The russians nearly did it in the 50's, it would be easily possible now. But I agree, crash's would be messy and they'd be like Terrorist magnets.

Soviet Experimentation with Nuclear Powered Bombers (http://www.aviation-history.com/articles/nuke-bombers.htm)

[ba038]

im currently doing my a-levels finishing my first year......i really want to start next september and join oaa but the main problem is would i find a job in 2012 thats the million pound question for me and i need some answers...

[davepearsall]

How long is a piece of string??

I think your probably looking for someone that can predict the future but unfortunately you won't find any on here. Well some people might think they can predict the future but its all guess work.

My "advise" for you would be make sure you have another career to fall back on if you weren't to get a job straight out of flight school.

I plan to start my ATPL ab-initio towards the end of the year. At the end of this if I don't get a job straight away I can walk back into my old career which is working in a school.

Hope for the best, plan for the worst.

[quant]

i would have thought that your main problem would be to find the £85k needed to train @ OAA :{

[TwinAisle]

Dear BA038

An old fart writes...

I have been in this business, on the management side, for all my working life, which is comfortably the majority of my life. The whole industry is VERY cyclical, and I have bad news for you. You want to join on the down swing. Not your fault, not mine, not anyone else's, just a fact. Sh1t happens. My advice - as a non-ATPL, but someone who employs (f)ATPLs - is the same as my learned friends on here - go and do something else for a bit.

would i find a job in 2012 thats the million pound question for me

As someone involved in start ups this is NOT a figurative question - for me, I would write "that's the tens of millions of pounds question".

and i need some answers

Don't we all? I would love to set a start date for my start up. Nothing would give me more pleasure. I would love to get pilots and cabin crew up and training, and being paid, but guess what? I have no idea. I would guess most of us on here from the most pessimistic to the most optimistic would say that the industry is going downhill, certainly in the UK, probably in Europe, and is likely to carry on that way for 2009. 2010? Dunno. Optimists and pessimists may argue there. 2011? Ditto. 2012? Well, I would like to think the optimists are right at about this time, but I am not putting my pension on it. The TwinAisle guess, based on years of experience and cynicism is:

2009 - go back to bed. If you are in the industry, I really hope you stay in it. If you are a new starter, best of British...

2010 - further failures in Jan/Feb, as lower revenues kill off the weaklings. Good people, people who would have found jobs by coughing in the good years, start to get culled. Airline consolidation gains pace.

2011 - Signs of life in the wider economy. Unemployment starts to fall in the general economy, capacity shortfalls start to appear, yields start to rise.

2012 - Growth at last. Start ups starting to appear. New fleet orders. Pilot unemployment starts to ease.

Hope I am wrong, but....

TA, miserable git. On the same wavelength as WWW, hoping we are both wrong, but...

[quant]

cheers TA i found that helpful :ok: The bods in management at the airline i work for are saying the same thing :p

[disco87]

That timetine sort of ties in with my plans to start around this time next year....perhaps intergrated....perhaps not.

[smith]

Someone please tell them that airplanes crash! I personally think it's a ludicrous idea

I personally think you live in the dark ages, there have been loads of experiments of crashing Phantom fighter jets, speeding trains etc into nuclear caskets with no resulting breach of integrity. The idea gets a thumbs up from me :ok:

[Grass strip basher]

nuclear powered aircraft..... zero chance of it happening in the next 30 years. Forget about it.

[quant]

I personally think you live in the dark ages

Suggesting that anybody that is against nuclear powered aircraft is living in the dark ages is ridiculous and dare i suggest stupid. Infact i'd go further in saying that anyone thinking that this type of propulsion is the future is living in the dark ages! :p

Can you imagine if you had a leak from this type of engine? On a transatlantic trip you woud irradiate everything from the UK and back! (I don't care about the island the yanks live on but i do care about us!)

[quant]

I personally think you live in the dark ages

Suggesting that anybody that is against nuclear powered aircraft is living in the dark ages is ridiculous and dare i suggest stupid. Infact i'd go further in saying that anyone thinking that this type of propulsion is the future is living in the dark ages! :p

Can you imagine if you had a leak from this type of engine? On a transatlantic trip you woud irradiate everything from the UK and back! (I don't care about the island the yanks live on but i do care about us!)

This is the way forward:

Hydrogen to fuel green jets (http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/transport/article5907888.ece)

:cool:

[Grass strip basher]

AND..... back on topic....

(Hydrogen, nuclear, horse sh*t fuelled planes are not going to be the catalyst to spark a revival in pilot recruitment in the next 2-3 decades folks!)

[vaibhav]

will get my instructor rating done by the end of this year will work as an instructor for the next five years ... and then lets see wat upturn is upon me .. :ok:

[v6g]

I wouldn't so readily dismiss nuclear-powered planes.

A leak would likely release far less radiation into the atmosphere than is released from coal-fired power stations today. It's all a question of motivation and the relative price of oil. As the article stated, I can't see any insurmountable technical barriers.

(but it sure as hell aint got anything to do with the current recession)

[quant]

Oil prices fell sharply on Monday to below $50 a barrel following forecasts by the International Energy Agency (IEA) that demand for crude would decline this year by 2.4 million units a day.

Last week, the IEA predicted that the world economy will need only 83.4 million barrels of oil a day, 2.8 per cent less than in 2008, after “lower than expected economic growth in the global economy”

Oil falls below $50 amid slump in US stocks - Times Online (http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/banking_and_finance/article6086884.ece)

[smith]

Can you imagine if you had a leak from this type of engine? On a transatlantic trip you woud irradiate everything from the UK and back!

And this wouldn't occur on a nuclear submarine?

[EK4457]

Goodness me guys. Some of us here are supposed to be highly qualified professionals.

A leak would likely release far less radiation into the atmosphere than is released from coal-fired power stations today.

Radioactive coal? Coal power stations are radiation free.

there have been loads of experiments of crashing Phantom fighter jets, speeding trains etc into nuclear caskets with no resulting breach of integrity.

These were flasks used for carrying nuclear waste from the power station to the storage / reprocessing plant. They were not reactors. A fully functioning nuclear reactor is a whole different kettle of fish and is VERY vunerable. A leak/crash would be catastrophic. Chernobyl.

You will never fly a nuclear powered aircraft. It's scary to think that some of these comments could be from airline pilots!

[v6g]

Radioactive coal? Coal power stations are radiation free.
Wrong. Most radiation present in the atmosphere today is in fact from the combustion of coal in electrical power stations.

There are, believe it or not, companies and research organisations looking at ways of "harvesting" uranium from spent coal ash!

(only slightly off topic)

[EK4457]

News to me!

[EK4457]

Ah! Got you now. Small traces of radioactive elements from within the coal enter the atmosphere after burning. This is of course spread over a huge area over a long period of time. If you got the 5 tonnes of Uraniun per year produced and dropped it on a city, you have a major problem. Don't forget that the reactor will have enriched Urainium too.

Sorry, I thought you were saying that coal power stations got their energy from fission.

Mix-up aside, surely every air crash leading to a potential small Chernobyl is not an option and will never happen.

Apologies for the blatant thread creep.

[quant]

Back on topic:

An interesting article:

So that's all right then. Almost a year into the worst recession to afflict Britain and the West since the Second World War and we are, say the optimists, over the worst. “The End” is no longer nigh but, suddenly, the end of the slump is. In the barren desert of economic gloom an oasis of hope, lush with “green shoots”, at last shimmers on the horizon.
Or does it? Alas these rose-tinted visions of a rapid revival from recession are almost certainly a cruel mirage. For fearful families, fretful businesses, edgy investors, and — most of all — tormented financiers and desperate politicians, all craving a swift return to the good times, the present chorus of upbeat and reassuring responses to the persistent question “are we nearly there yet?” is little more than wishful thinking.
Sure, there are the first, tentative signs that the vicious first phase of this wrenchingly brutal recession may be passing. The pace of the slump in the present quarter, here and across the world, is likely to be markedly less than the headlong plunge of the past six months. The massive response by governments and central banks, pretty much unprecedented in scale and speed, ought to have begun to slow the rate of decline — and seems to have done so. That much is welcome. But, crucially, we are still going down, and quite fast.


Green shoots a mirage in economic desert - Times Online (http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/columnists/article6087954.ece)

:(

[MIKECR]

Sorry, but its not interesting in the slightest because it doesnt tell us anything that we dont already know.

[Grass strip basher]

I have got something that you might not know...

A lot of fuss has been made on this thread as to how the awful trends shown in the IATA passenger numbers do not include low cost airlines... the theory being that the numbers aren't really as bad as the headlines suggest.

Well if you add together total passenger numbers in March for the two biggest low-cos in the UK (Easy and Ryanair) they were actually down YoY for the first time in years and years (albeit marginally at -0.3%). :eek: :uhoh:

Now this may well be due to Easter falling a couple of weeks earlier or later... or unseasonal snow... or leaves on railway lines.... or maybe (shock horror) people choosing not to travel due to the recession.... who knows.... but fact is the numbers were down.

Only time will tell if this is a "blip" but something tells me that March will not prove to be the last month of declines we will see.... :oh:

[quant]

Sorry, but its not interesting in the slightest because it doesnt tell us anything that we dont already know.

Here is something new just for you....

Qantas, Australia’s leading airline carrier, today slashed its annual profit forecast by $AU300 million (£147 million) and announced plans to cut another 1,750 jobs in a bid to weather the global financial crisis.
Shares in the flagship airline plunged more than 10 per cent after the announcement this morning which surprised analysts and was described as “unwelcome news” by Julia Gillard, the Australian deputy Prime Minister.
The airline revised its full year pre-tax profit outlook to between $100-$200 million, a downturn of more than half from its previous forecast of $500 million.


Qantas axes more jobs and warns on profits - Times Online (http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/transport/article6089450.ece)

[Alex Whittingham]

Yes, I saw those figures. Easyjet for March are reporting passengers 6.3% down with load factors down as well at 84.7%. The change in load factor I don't see as significant, it's bound to go up and down around a mean. Easyjet acsribe the fall in the load factor to Easter being in April this year as opposed to March last year, I imagine they mean that the passenger numbers were down for that reason as well as the two are, to some extent, interlinked.

Easyjet (http://www.easyjet.com/en/news/mar_09_passenger_statistics.html)

Ryanair are posting a 4.8% increase in traffic for March with a 2% reduction in load factor. Interesting to note that Ryanair's load factors seem to be generally lighter than Easyjets.

Ryanair (http://www.ryanair.com/site/EN/about.php?page=Invest&sec=traffic)

It will be interesting to see the April figures.

As an aside, I tried to book flights for my family of 5 with flybe from Exter to Bergerac this summer. Every single flight was full for the entire summer holiday, except on one day. I'm now flying with Ryanair from Bristol :uhoh:

[quant]

meanwhile....

BAA air traffic numbers slump 11.3% in March (http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/transport/article6098051.ece)

The number of passengers flying out of Gatwick and other UK airports has plummeted as the economic crisis combined with a weak pound dissuaded thousands from travelling abroad in March.
Passenger traffic at the UK's key airports, including London's Heathrow, Gatwick and Stansted, fell 11.3 per cent in March, airport owner BAA said today
Gatwick airport was the worst hit, with passenger numbers falling 17.7 per cent compared to March 2008. The company said 2 to 3 percentage points of that decline were due to Easter falling later this year, while the rest of the fall was blamed on global economic problems.
Balanced against those reductions were flights taken by passengers to India, the Middle East and South America – which all saw increases in traffic. Flights to South America were up 8.9 per cent as travellers took advantages of relatively good exchange rates between the pound and local currencies.
Air France to shed 2,500 jobs as gloom deepens (http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/transport/article6097299.ece)

Air France announced today that it will reduce its workforce by 2,500 staff over the next two years as it responds to the global downturn in air travel.
The carrier said this morning that it aimed to eliminate the jobs through natural staff turnover rather than redundancies. Qantas, the Australian airline, yesterday said that it would cut 1,750 jobs at the same time that it issued a steep profit warning while this morning, BAA, the Spanish-owned airport operator, reported a 11.3 per cent fall in traffic across its hubs, including Gatwick, Heathrow and Stansted.
Air France, which is part of Air France-KLM, has a workforce of 70,000. It has suffered a rapid decline in passenger numbers during the global financial turmoil and has forecast a loss of €200 million (£178 million) for the financial year to the end of March.

[cumulus]

I'm offline moving house so moderation is being handled by others.

I'm having the bunker extended and widening the bullion vault...

Www

Now then, would that be the bunker you built in anticipation of the Y2K bug bringing civilisation to it's knees, or the one you built to protect yourself against Jihadist nukes? :rolleyes:

[disco87]

All in one, keep costs down as Mr Sugar says. There is a recession going on.

[quant]

Passenger numbers are down and flights have been cut, but the Civil Aviation Authority yesterday discovered a silver lining amid the dark clouds hanging over the airline industry - punctuality has improved at nearly all of Britain's airports.
Airline insiders said that the economic downturn had relieved pressure on the overstretched airport and air traffic infrastructure and fewer flights were being delayed as a result.
It is also believed that fewer bags are being lost because the system is less strained.
The CAA's most recent figures show that in January 85.1 per cent of flights to Edinburgh, for example, were early or within 15 minutes of their scheduled arrival time, compared with 72 per cent in the same month last year. In this period, the number of flights at Edinburgh fell by 9.2 per cent and passenger numbers were down by 5.8 per cent.


This is your captain: we'll arrive on time - Times Online (http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/transport/article6109059.ece)

:8