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Growing Evidence That The Upturn Is Upon Us

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Growing Evidence That The Upturn Is Upon Us

Old 4th Jul 2008, 12:02
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Growing Evidence That The Upturn Is Upon Us

OK, enough negativity people!

I'll start.........





































erm....



















BitMoreRightRudder is offline  
Old 4th Jul 2008, 12:19
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Ryanair’s Traffic Grows 19% in June

Ryanair today (Friday, 4th July) published its passenger and load factor statistics for June 2008.

Jun 07 Jun 08 Increase 12 mth to 30 Jun 08
Passengers (m) 1 4.35m 5.17m 19% 53.29m
Load Factor 2 85% 84% -1% 81%


1. Represents the number of earned seats flown by Ryanair. Earned seats include seats that are flown whether or not the passenger turns up because once a flight has departed a no-show customer is not entitled to change flights or seek a refund.
2. Represents the number of passengers as a proportion of the number of seats available for passengers.

I know load factor has no direct correlation to profitibilty, but it at least shows people are still flying - and this is before most kids have broken up for the summer hols!
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Old 4th Jul 2008, 12:24
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Tomorrow I'm taking my first step on the long road to an ATPL so I'm quite positive about the downturn, here's why...

I've planned to take about 2-3 years to achieve my goal which means that if we were in a peak now, by the time I qualify we would be in a trough. As it is, by the time I qualify (hopefully) the market would have recovered and airlines will need pilots- this is assuming that the 7 year cycle theory is correct.

I feel for people who are close to finishing especially if they've gone down the more expensive route but personally, I'm quite upbeat about a downturn.


I hope this helps, I've finished with my rose tinted spectacles now if anyone else wants to borrow them!
JugglingSpence is offline  
Old 4th Jul 2008, 12:45
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Erm..

Interesting thread.

I'm just starting my PPL now. It will take me about 3 years to get fATPL as I'm doing it the modular way. Then I will work as an Instructor for a year or two to build up my hours and gain new experience. Hopefully, by the time I will be looking forward to working with an airline, they will need pilots.
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Old 4th Jul 2008, 12:49
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Flybe will announce record profits in its upcoming full year results, despite the fact many airlines are suffering as crude oil prices continue to reach new highs.

Flybe chief commercial officer Mike Rutter - speaking ahead of annual results and before its franchise with Scottish airline Loganair launches in October – told ABTN the carrier is benefiting from a lower break-even factor, meaning it can withstand fuel prices more easily.

“The airline industry is facing the greatest set of challenges since the 1974 oil crisis, a triple whammy of record fuel prices - aviation jet fuel prices have increased 100% in nine months – reducing consumer demand for discretional leisure flights because of the credit crunch and increasing taxation driven by ill-thought-through green proposals,” said Rutter.

“As Europe’s largest regional carrier - Flybe will carry 8m passengers in 2008 – we have been preparing for these challenges for five years. While we couldn’t have predicted the size of the increase in the oil price, we were clear it was going to go up. We were also clear two years ago that consumers’ appetite for visiting places they had never heard of would wane, dented by a weaker economy and by a consumer backlash to the service attitude of some hard-core low - cost airlines.”

In 2003 Flybe took the decision to change its fleet to the lowest fuel-burn aircraft, spending more than $2bn on a new fleet of 70 turboprops and jets. The move is now paying dividends, because with fuel at current prices it still makes up only 24.6% of the carrier’s cost base, a far lower percentage than many airlines are having to spend.

“To help manage fuel we also put in place a rigorous fuel hedging policy and as a result have a nominal hedge cover for this year of 76%,” said Rutter. “So with lower fuel burn and better hedging, Flybe has the fuel problem covered.”

In 2005, Flybe also reshaped its network to create a mix of business destinations and places with large family links – types of travel it believed would be less affected in an economic downturn. The carrier completed the purchase and integration of British Airway’s regional operations in 2007, and now 42% of Flybe customers travel for business and more than 30% are visiting friends and relatives.

“As a result we have a network of routes of which more than 84% have twice-daily frequencies or higher,” added Rutter.

Environmental issues are clearly important to Flybe’s fleet strategy, and its investment in 60 turboprops in 2003 was made largely because they had the smallest carbon footprint for a European domestic market. It also launched the world’s first airline Ecolabel in 2007 to provide consumers with data on its fleet compared with other airlines.

Rutter is therefore bullish about the airline’s figures and position, despite a tough aviation climate – “Undoubtedly weaker airlines will be acquired and consolidated as a result of current conditions,” he said. “Flybe has been highly acquisitive and will remain so during this time. Five years of planning has ensured we will not only survive but prosper in these difficult times.
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Old 4th Jul 2008, 12:54
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True for Flybe, but remember their fleet expansion & replacement program will be complete by late 2009, after this recruitment will be down to attrition only, and in a downturn attrition is very very small.
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Old 4th Jul 2008, 13:00
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BMRR, there is no upturn, thats the negative truth, forget being positive, it gives people false hope.
The mods need to delete this thread, it's pointless
I don't think it does. People believe what the want to believe. And nobody listens on the 'downturn' thread, so I can't see how the 'upturn' thread can have any impact.

People will still gamble their parents lifesaving/deeds, and get shafted by pay to fly schemes, buy as you fly and all that nonsense regardless of what they here on here.

The only people listen to, unfortunately, are glossy brochures, and salesmen dressed up as pilots from the big four schools. No matter what is said on here, OAA (and the perceptions that you WILL get a job with BA [despite more people going to FR and BE than any other airlines), FTE, Cabair and CTC marketing are the only influential bodies in this game.
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Old 4th Jul 2008, 13:01
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Does Flybe still make money with $140 dollar oil??
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Old 4th Jul 2008, 13:04
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Flybe will break even with fuel at $170 per barrel
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Old 4th Jul 2008, 13:10
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What you are failing to realise is that we are on our way into a downturn, were far from in there yet, things will get a whole lot worse.
I just don't see it that way? Apart from the banks it all up, what exactly is it about the economy as it stands that puts us in a recession. All the factors we have seen are because of a booming world economy. We consume, they produce. At some point they reach self sustaining speed and then consume and then some other countries become producers, etc. The Credit Crunch is just a natty phrase looking for a problem. The banks cannot sustain their businesses with their current knee jerk tightening of loan criteria, they will have to open up again soon. The oil price is not as critical as people suggest, people will adjust their expectations and then spend as they did before and as they have done during previous fuel costs hikes.

If anything, this process may work in all our favours, by slowing the economy and permitting some introspection rather than creating more burstable bubbles. It appears that a slow down in Europe and America is going to be healthy for some of the Asian economies that were starting to overheat with near uncontrolable high inflation. What's good for one invariably ends up being good for the other.
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Old 4th Jul 2008, 15:57
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Airbus may see record orders this year with its A320, A330 and A350XWB selling like hot chocolates.
FlyDubai is expected to place a big A320 order.

Maybe at last, an A330 or B777 order from MOL who still needs to make his TATL ops come true?

We have emerging markets in Africa, and I highly recommend pilots who don't find a job to go there and do some bush flying. There's enough jobs and they wages are very good (tax-free!)

I've planned to take about 2-3 years to achieve my goal which means that if we were in a peak now, by the time I qualify we would be in a trough. As it is, by the time I qualify (hopefully) the market would have recovered and airlines will need pilots- this is assuming that the 7 year cycle theory is correct.

I feel for people who are close to finishing especially if they've gone down the more expensive route but personally, I'm quite upbeat about a downturn.
This is very reasonable thinking.
A good pilot is always ahead of himself and the machine.

In the U.S. airlines are grounding aircraft, laying off staff. 1 year from now, they will be hiring again and new low-cost airlines will emerge from nowhere to take advantage of the weak airlines that went through the downturn.
The economy is a complicated matter and even Richard Branson could not have timed the start-up of Virgin America worse.

But hey, this ain't 9/11. The only negative in the equation are oil prices. They will last until November, at best.

10% of world's oil is burned by aircraft.(military and civil combined)
If oil stays where it is or increases futher, airlines will simply stop flying (except Emirates), people will stop driving cars.

OPEC can not afford to let that happen.
nich-av is offline  
Old 4th Jul 2008, 16:46
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Only a blip

The last recession interest rates rose to 15% its only 5% now so thats good relatively

That said fuel is a tad expensive but that will prevent global warming as we all
get rid of gas guzzling cars - so that another plus

Unemployment is historically very low so that is good news

One problem is that we still have a shortage of housing although the rental market is booming

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Old 4th Jul 2008, 18:28
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And they'll be back up there before long as inflation ravages the land. Interest rates are a proxy for mortgage rates. Which for many people are now over 7%. There aren't ANY two year fixed rate products under 7% at the moment. And that is 7% on a loan that is three times what it needed to be when Gordon Brown stood on the steps of Number 11 and proclaimed no return to boom & bust.

Well we've certainly had to boom. Ooh, and this must feel a bit like a bust for this chap:


£175,000 flat I bought last year is now worth less than £100,000: Owner's negative equity horror | Mail Online


£175,000 flat I bought last year is now worth less than £100,000: Owner's negative equity horror


Changing fortune: Maurice Conroy outside his studio flat in central London, which has plummeted in value

A property investor who bought a flat for £175,000 at the height of the housing boom has ended up in a negative equity nightmare after its value nosedived by almost 50 per cent.

Maurice Conroy, who owns a string of buy-to-let flats, bought the studio in central London last summer. But he has just had it valued by three agents who told him it would now only sell for between £80,000 and £100,000.

He is one of a growing number of..



Unemployment is a total fiddle as we have 2.7 million scroungers on disability allowance.

If we are so short of housing you'd better let the house builder Barratt (laid off 900 workers this week) and TaylorWimpey (laid off 1000 workers this week) know that they've terribly misread the market...

I'm not helping this thread am I?



WWW
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Old 4th Jul 2008, 18:47
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Now this is good news, Ice Cream Van's are back! We've got one going through the village as I type, haven't seen one of those for years! 99 anyone?

Have I gone off topic??!!
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Old 4th Jul 2008, 19:02
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good news:

1) The interbank libor has decreased
2) House prices have risen
4) Oil prices have returned to sub $100
5) Food prices have decreased
6) The gold price has fallen
7) Gordon LIAR Brown has been voted out of office

wait i'm thinking about 2010 if you want to know about 2008:

There is none.

We are in a recession (not rechnically - as we haven't had 2 quarters of negative growth), what goes up must come down and vice versa.

cheerup up people you can always buy ice cream from the van that passes through JB007's village (if you can afford it )

I appear to have hijacked the thread! oh well when in rome...
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Old 4th Jul 2008, 19:02
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Whats best, integrated or modular?
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Old 4th Jul 2008, 20:45
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ha ha smith that bought a smile to my face (modular... no integrated... oh I don't know)
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Old 5th Jul 2008, 01:23
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A few bits of good news (nothing major though)

Scotsman: After months of rising, lenders begin to cut fixed-rate mortgage rates
EXPERTS have forecast a fall in fixed-rate mortgage prices after several leading lenders announced cuts. Abbey, Nationwide and Halifax are all cutting rates on some deals and more reductions could be due, according to Ray Boulger, senior technical manager at broker John Charcol.

Guardian: Banks pledge £220m to Bradford & Bingley
Six high street banks have agreed to guarantee up to £220m of the £400m Bradford & Bingley fundraising that was thrown into disarray on Thursday night when private equity house TPG pulled its investment in the buy-to-let lender.
(Not a glowing piece of news - but another bank against the wall would have been bad news indeed - hopefully more than just a stay of execution)


bbc.co.uk: Iran optimism steadies oil price
The price of oil fell back on Friday, on hopes Iran would react positively to proposals to resolve a dispute over its nuclear development programme.
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Old 5th Jul 2008, 01:35
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Whilst I have no intention whatsoever of getting into an arguement on an internet forum (surely one of the most pointless pursuits possible )

With a disabled wife (in the genuine sense of the word) who receives Incapacity Benefit & Disability Living Allowance, I find this sweeping comment to be insulting even though I do understand some of the sentiment:
Unemployment is a total fiddle as we have 2.7 million scroungers on disability allowance.
Phil.
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Old 5th Jul 2008, 03:35
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£175,000 flat I bought last year is now worth less than £100,000: Owner's negative equity horror
Real estate agencies are pressing prices down in order to sale more volume because they are selling less homes as a result of the credit crunch.

I had my house quoted by a random but reputable real estate agent, and he quoted me a price that was 35% lower than what a close friend of mine that owns another reputable real estate agency quoted to me 2 days later.
(For the detail, I showed the random real estate guy the finger)

Some stupid sellers are not bothered to give their homes away for almost nothing, (a bit like pilots who do not bother paying to work) but I think that real estate agencies are in detress mode and trying to sell as many homes as they can, as soon as they can which sees many homes listed for less money. These homes are bargains now and I recommend some people who have the cash to actually invest in the real estate, there's no better moment.
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