Growing Evidence That The Upturn Is Upon Us
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We’re still worse off than in 1997
Darling’s ‘giveaway’ will bypass the middle classe
We are still worse off than in 1997
Ryanair in new Aer Lingus offer
The budget airline Ryanair is to make a fresh takeover offer for the Irish carrier Aer Lingus.
BBC NEWS | Business | Ryanair in new Aer Lingus offer
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Airlines to return to profit soon
Interview with Maurice Flannigan - Exec Vice Chairman of Emirates on Radio 5 live Wake up to Money programme this morning.
His view is that the reduction in the price of oil will allow carriers to reduce their prices and get more pax on-board which in turn will bring back profitability.
BBC - Radio - Podcasts - Wake Up To Money
His view is that the reduction in the price of oil will allow carriers to reduce their prices and get more pax on-board which in turn will bring back profitability.
BBC - Radio - Podcasts - Wake Up To Money
Last edited by 32SQDN; 2nd Dec 2008 at 08:18.
Japanese car sales have plummeted at a pace not seen since the bleak economic days of the early 1970s. Confirming fears that Japan has crashed into its sharpest downturn since the Second World War, November sales of cars, lorries and buses plunged by 27.3 per cent from the previous year.
Big big numbers. Still - oils down to under $48 a barrel this morning so everything will be fine..
WWW
Big big numbers. Still - oils down to under $48 a barrel this morning so everything will be fine..
WWW
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WWW is right.
The oil price spike was simply a large splash of petrol on the flickering fire that is the global credit crisis/recession. For some of the small operators, the flash of fire was enough to finish them off.
A broad brush statement I know, but it's going to get worse before it gets any better.
The oil price spike was simply a large splash of petrol on the flickering fire that is the global credit crisis/recession. For some of the small operators, the flash of fire was enough to finish them off.
A broad brush statement I know, but it's going to get worse before it gets any better.
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There is also a flip side to low oil prices... Gulf carriers have seen huge expansion in recent years and with a breakeven oil price for the economy in the UAE at c$40 there is actually an acute shortage of liquidity in Gulf banking markets now. You can expect the expansion of Gulf airlines to slow considerably over the next 12-18 months..... another source of recruitment is going to dry up.... 
Also now talk of a BS/Quantas merger.... = more job losses and experienced pilots in the queue ahead of wanabees.
You really would need to get you head examined to do an integrated course now.
Also now talk of a BS/Quantas merger.... = more job losses and experienced pilots in the queue ahead of wanabees.
You really would need to get you head examined to do an integrated course now.
Last edited by Grass strip basher; 2nd Dec 2008 at 14:10.
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On one side the 'experts' on this site were predicting oil at $200 by Xmas ..and, on the other oil price has no influence whatsoever!! (something which will be laughed at by Airlines which hedged).
Perhaps the Wannabes forum should get back to it's roots, and the wannabe 'experts' should leave their sometimes infantile interpretations of National press coverage where it belongs!
Anyone can regurgitate news coverage, but it would be a much more impressive member/moderator or whatever, who could point others in a positive direction towards the jobs which still exist or a plan to structure their training accordingly in a POSITIVE manner.
And, Yes, its bad out there but the end of the World is NOT upon us!
I would love to see a REAL economists views on some of the comments made here!!!
Having said all that we have no vacancies here but a number of regionals have,... but hours and contacts are what it's all about right now.
Perhaps the Wannabes forum should get back to it's roots, and the wannabe 'experts' should leave their sometimes infantile interpretations of National press coverage where it belongs!
Anyone can regurgitate news coverage, but it would be a much more impressive member/moderator or whatever, who could point others in a positive direction towards the jobs which still exist or a plan to structure their training accordingly in a POSITIVE manner.
And, Yes, its bad out there but the end of the World is NOT upon us!
I would love to see a REAL economists views on some of the comments made here!!!
Having said all that we have no vacancies here but a number of regionals have,... but hours and contacts are what it's all about right now.
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I think you will find that several people on here are financial experts and give their views free of charge and with no agenda.... you would be surprised who lurks around on here.....
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You really would need to get you head examined to do an integrated course now
In all seriousness though, blanket statements such as this do little to progress the debate - it may well be your opinion that those thinking of starting on an integrated course need their heads examining, but for every person who blindly wanders into an integrated FTO, credit card in hand, expecting to walk straight into the RHS of a 737 on finishing the course, there are several who have spent months and months weighing up whether or not this is the right time for them to start integrated training and have come to the conclusion that it is. Believe it or not, they are not all wrong.
Incidentally, I don't fall into either group - I'm still weighing things up.
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given that most of them are junior bankers (that's with a 'B' )
I strongly recall www mentioning that "oil is a sideshow" long before it rose to $150, then fell - even if it was predicted to rise to $200, you miss the point that we were heading towards, and are now in a recession.
I hardly think it inconsistent both to predict the price of a good, and also claim the good is not the most relevant to the discussion - it is a separate point.
This thread serves a specific purpose: those who are uninformed and do not read the media - or perhaps do not realise is applicability to airlines - are the target audience. If you feel you know it all, or that the financial community are all wrong, then feel free to spend you cash or hold you view.
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For the record, I don't make predictions, so let me phrase this carefully.
I expect that airlines are now at the bottom of their recession at present. I believe that cutbacks to capacity and delivery delays will serve their purpose in ensuring that some airlines are profitable despite travel having declines to near 1998 level. Fuel prices have abated, and tough discussions with employees and suppliers will allow them to ride the remainder of the bottom of this recession.
I fully expect consumer spending to tank further, but the airlines themselves to be an investment that will hold flat for a while longer - retailers and industrial machinery will be the focus for the next year of depressing financial news.
However, in consideration of all this, I do not know what will happen, nor will I attempt to predict what will happen. I will do as I have always done and position myself to ride the recession out.
What this means for wannabes is: position yourself adequately, and considering that all those new orders are likely to be delayed (while older aircraft are retired), think well about when the upturn in recruiting is likely to be - it will not be just as the economy starts recovering in - say - 2011, but more likely 2014.
Be informed, be educated, don't bet the ranch.
I expect that airlines are now at the bottom of their recession at present. I believe that cutbacks to capacity and delivery delays will serve their purpose in ensuring that some airlines are profitable despite travel having declines to near 1998 level. Fuel prices have abated, and tough discussions with employees and suppliers will allow them to ride the remainder of the bottom of this recession.
I fully expect consumer spending to tank further, but the airlines themselves to be an investment that will hold flat for a while longer - retailers and industrial machinery will be the focus for the next year of depressing financial news.
However, in consideration of all this, I do not know what will happen, nor will I attempt to predict what will happen. I will do as I have always done and position myself to ride the recession out.
What this means for wannabes is: position yourself adequately, and considering that all those new orders are likely to be delayed (while older aircraft are retired), think well about when the upturn in recruiting is likely to be - it will not be just as the economy starts recovering in - say - 2011, but more likely 2014.
Be informed, be educated, don't bet the ranch.
Clear Prop!! wrote:
Which experts were those that predicted $200 oil? Wasn't me. Could you post a link back? My recollection is that the OPEC spokesmans comments on $200 oil was posted by someone. I was calling it a bubble and saying it was a sideshow long before it burst.
Of course oil price does matter. But some seemed to believe that the only cloud on the airline horizon was the price of crude rising. When in fact that was a minor headache.
What is infantile and where is regurgitation about showing how something like the Baltic Dry Index has fallen off a cliff? Or pointing to Japanese car sales returning to the dire years of the 1970's in their collapse?
You want me to point people in a positive manner as to job opportunities remaining and training plans that make sense.
There are no jobs. Don't train.
That's all I can honestly say.
WWW
On one side the 'experts' on this site were predicting oil at $200 by Xmas ..and, on the other oil price has no influence whatsoever!! (something which will be laughed at by Airlines which hedged).
Perhaps the Wannabes forum should get back to it's roots, and the wannabe 'experts' should leave their sometimes infantile interpretations of National press coverage where it belongs!
Anyone can regurgitate news coverage, but it would be a much more impressive member/moderator or whatever, who could point others in a positive direction towards the jobs which still exist or a plan to structure their training accordingly in a POSITIVE manner.
Perhaps the Wannabes forum should get back to it's roots, and the wannabe 'experts' should leave their sometimes infantile interpretations of National press coverage where it belongs!
Anyone can regurgitate news coverage, but it would be a much more impressive member/moderator or whatever, who could point others in a positive direction towards the jobs which still exist or a plan to structure their training accordingly in a POSITIVE manner.
Which experts were those that predicted $200 oil? Wasn't me. Could you post a link back? My recollection is that the OPEC spokesmans comments on $200 oil was posted by someone. I was calling it a bubble and saying it was a sideshow long before it burst.
Of course oil price does matter. But some seemed to believe that the only cloud on the airline horizon was the price of crude rising. When in fact that was a minor headache.
What is infantile and where is regurgitation about showing how something like the Baltic Dry Index has fallen off a cliff? Or pointing to Japanese car sales returning to the dire years of the 1970's in their collapse?
You want me to point people in a positive manner as to job opportunities remaining and training plans that make sense.
There are no jobs. Don't train.
That's all I can honestly say.
WWW
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Well, i was soon to go integrated but i changed my mind. However i don`t wanna give up on my dream so i`m thinking of going modular, taking it slowly and be ready by 2011-12. That way i can work as well and do lots of hr building. I have the money to go integrated but it is obviously not the rite time to do that. Any advice or criticism?
There are XL B737 Captains who are still job hunting. Its totally grim out there. I'd heard the rumour about EAAC but couldn't confirm it, how many guys did they have these days?
WWW
WWW
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Re-Heat...
I DON'T THINK SO!!!...I fly a plane for a living and can't think of anything worse than a job in finacial services (junior or otherwise)!!
I think this sums up my issue.
The forum has been hijacked by those with more interest in proving their, sometimes suspect knowledge of the economy and finance, at the expense of how wannabes should...or should not progress. And ....before you hit the roof Re-heat, this is not aimed at you personally!!!
The price of japanese cars, fish, mince or whatever reads more like an ego trip and 'I know more than you' than helpfull advice!
WWW, I did not atribute the $200 oil price prediction to you did I?
WOW! jumpy or what!!!
It's on the downturn post along with many of the other predictions which a real economist would no doubt drive a bus through!
yes, it's bad, there is no doubt of that.
Jobs (a few), are around, but, as I said, it's contacts and hours right now.
Any jobs are with TP regionals who sadly see those made redundant as mainly over qualified and short term. Best placed right now are 1000hr + instructors.
riven with envy and Schadenfreude
I think this sums up my issue.
The forum has been hijacked by those with more interest in proving their, sometimes suspect knowledge of the economy and finance, at the expense of how wannabes should...or should not progress. And ....before you hit the roof Re-heat, this is not aimed at you personally!!!
The price of japanese cars, fish, mince or whatever reads more like an ego trip and 'I know more than you' than helpfull advice!
WWW, I did not atribute the $200 oil price prediction to you did I?
WOW! jumpy or what!!!
It's on the downturn post along with many of the other predictions which a real economist would no doubt drive a bus through!
yes, it's bad, there is no doubt of that.
Jobs (a few), are around, but, as I said, it's contacts and hours right now.
Any jobs are with TP regionals who sadly see those made redundant as mainly over qualified and short term. Best placed right now are 1000hr + instructors.
Last edited by clear prop!!!; 2nd Dec 2008 at 21:59.
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So Clear prop cut to the chase.... would you pay for an integrated course right now?.... or do a full time modular course which will put you on the market in 18 months? Or would you sit on your hands and wait a year or so?
You seem to spend most of your time criticising other folks but have to date added very little to the acutal debate and question at hand yourself.
This thread just seems to get your back up all the time.... maybe just don't read it?? Or maybe tell us a little bit about what angle you are viewing the industry from and why so optimistic?? How does a TP operator wanting someone with instructor rating with 1000+ hours (when there are now very few FI jobs around) help a wanabee fresh out of training? Please do share your wisdom...
As has been mentioned before you would be "VERY" surprised at the contacts/experience some posters on this board have...not all are junior bankers and young wanabees.
(P.S. you seem to have it in for economists... have they done you some huge dis-service in the past?? I am not one by the way...)
You seem to spend most of your time criticising other folks but have to date added very little to the acutal debate and question at hand yourself.
This thread just seems to get your back up all the time.... maybe just don't read it?? Or maybe tell us a little bit about what angle you are viewing the industry from and why so optimistic?? How does a TP operator wanting someone with instructor rating with 1000+ hours (when there are now very few FI jobs around) help a wanabee fresh out of training? Please do share your wisdom...
As has been mentioned before you would be "VERY" surprised at the contacts/experience some posters on this board have...not all are junior bankers and young wanabees.
(P.S. you seem to have it in for economists... have they done you some huge dis-service in the past?? I am not one by the way...)
PPRuNe Secret Agent!
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Just been on a trip with a chap whose girlfriend was an FO at Zoom; still un-employed, in excess of 2000 hours on Boeings, any work is generally outside of the UK.
Ex MD of Zoom UK is (apparantly) starting an airline for Summer 2009, LGW based B737's for the smaller tour ops and hopefully TCX recruitment will help some of these guys out in the new year.
Ex MD of Zoom UK is (apparantly) starting an airline for Summer 2009, LGW based B737's for the smaller tour ops and hopefully TCX recruitment will help some of these guys out in the new year.
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I DON'T THINK SO!!!...I fly a plane for a living and can't think of anything worse than a job in finacial services (junior or otherwise)!!
Do you not think the TUI/Thompsonfly/First Choice pilots, whom the company are keen to see leave the company now that they are overcrewed, might not be ahead in queue for summer '09 recruitment? Their LPC/OPC won't have expired for a start.
Clear Prop!! - I have to admire your consistency. I recall you saying pretty much exactly the same things here over seven years ago:
http://www.pprune.org/professional-p...html#post72383
I get the message Clear Prop!! you don't like me publishing my view that there is no point training whilst there is no realistic prospect of gaining employment. You wanted me to shut up in Sept 2001 and I didn't then and won't now. Because I was proved right then and very unfortunately I will be proved right now.
Are you still involved with instructing?
WWW
Clear Prop!! - I have to admire your consistency. I recall you saying pretty much exactly the same things here over seven years ago:
http://www.pprune.org/professional-p...html#post72383
30th September 2001, 02:46 …..WWW, I have to say that this is becoming a little bit tiresome. Every time someone tries to put a positive spin on things or offers a suggestion that this cyclical industry might just remain cyclical …you hijack the thread and pour even more gloom and doom.
You have gone beyond offering advice and have become a complete and utter negative pain in the arse.. It might ‘just’ look like a case of Jack being all right.
Do you not hear what those who have been in the business for at least 10 years longer than your 5 months are telling you on your other doomsday threads? Don’t bother to reply….I, like others have had enough and won’t be here to read your predictable condescending and patronising reply!
You have gone beyond offering advice and have become a complete and utter negative pain in the arse.. It might ‘just’ look like a case of Jack being all right.
Do you not hear what those who have been in the business for at least 10 years longer than your 5 months are telling you on your other doomsday threads? Don’t bother to reply….I, like others have had enough and won’t be here to read your predictable condescending and patronising reply!
I get the message Clear Prop!! you don't like me publishing my view that there is no point training whilst there is no realistic prospect of gaining employment. You wanted me to shut up in Sept 2001 and I didn't then and won't now. Because I was proved right then and very unfortunately I will be proved right now.
Are you still involved with instructing?
WWW