Growing Evidence That The Upturn Is Upon Us
At the time Sabena and Swiss had gone bust and Virgin and MyTravel were losing pilots. It wasn't a good time to be a Wannabe. Glad I got that message across 
You are right though. Things will come back and it is a cycle. I look forward very much to the upswing.
WWW
You are right though. Things will come back and it is a cycle. I look forward very much to the upswing.
WWW
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It will take a while.
71 000 jobs lot in the construction industry this year before the latest announcements with the forecast for house building losing 150,000 of its 300,000 workers.
As we all know, housing is the underpinning for a lot of lending.
The value of housing is falling and with deflation, the size of any debt will increase.
Deflation could also lead to falling salaries. We want wage increses when inflation increases so why not reductions when we have deflation. It has to go both ways.
So any borrowings which require earnings to pay them off get greater.
Deflation mkes it harder to lend thats why the interest rates will fall to try and avoid deflation but they can only go so low.
Bad news indeed.
71 000 jobs lot in the construction industry this year before the latest announcements with the forecast for house building losing 150,000 of its 300,000 workers.
As we all know, housing is the underpinning for a lot of lending.
The value of housing is falling and with deflation, the size of any debt will increase.
Deflation could also lead to falling salaries. We want wage increses when inflation increases so why not reductions when we have deflation. It has to go both ways.
So any borrowings which require earnings to pay them off get greater.
Deflation mkes it harder to lend thats why the interest rates will fall to try and avoid deflation but they can only go so low.
Bad news indeed.
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Here is a guy with 3015TT and 560 hours on A320 and can't find a job.
http://www.pprune.org/terms-endearme...ng-320-fo.html
But then again, airlines will hire someone with 200h over 3015h
Damn I'm glad I took this thread and WWW for serious
Eikido
http://www.pprune.org/terms-endearme...ng-320-fo.html
But then again, airlines will hire someone with 200h over 3015h
Damn I'm glad I took this thread and WWW for serious
Eikido
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- and how exactly will any of that help someone with a 100k loan spent on flight training?
It won't.
It won't.
It won't.
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I suggest the guy has a gander at Gulfair....they have 50 FO positions available in Bahrain on the A320..... nice furnished apartment provided by the company, long term contracts, good pay and copeous other benefits available. Someone with over 3000 hrs TT, 500 of which on the A320 will walk straight in with them so forgive me for sounding somewhat unsympathetic and generally a miserable bastard, im really not! 
. I know many many other people in the middle of their training that would give their right arm to be in that position given current events!
. I know many many other people in the middle of their training that would give their right arm to be in that position given current events!
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P.S A further scrap of info to ponder.....
Mrs Flying Squid was at a charity dinner last night and ended up chatting to another guy on her table who worked for HSBC.....turns out he's the man the organises CTC's loans (not Cabair's or Oxford's) and according to him the PSL scheme has a £50 million budget which has been cut completely for a minimum of 5 years. So....no more PSL's for a while! HSBC have clearly lost their confidence in the industry aswell!
Mrs Flying Squid was at a charity dinner last night and ended up chatting to another guy on her table who worked for HSBC.....turns out he's the man the organises CTC's loans (not Cabair's or Oxford's) and according to him the PSL scheme has a £50 million budget which has been cut completely for a minimum of 5 years. So....no more PSL's for a while! HSBC have clearly lost their confidence in the industry aswell!
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71,000 jobs lost in construction, 150,000 builders jobs to go, unemployment to reach 2,000,000 by Christmas.
On the plus side my local paper carried an ad saying that Mrs McGilvary of 28 Acacia Avenue requires a woman in three mornings a week! Its not all bad folks.
On the plus side my local paper carried an ad saying that Mrs McGilvary of 28 Acacia Avenue requires a woman in three mornings a week! Its not all bad folks.
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2002
I seem to remember, WWW, that was just the time that I launched the CTC cadet scheme, and all the cadets of that era got jobs. Were you as confident in your predictions of doom and gloom then as you are now?
Certainly we are in an economic downturn. Undoubtedly it is really tough for those graduating from flight training today. It would be wise for anyone contemplating starting out now to consider the potential downside. However, nobody really knows how deep and long this recession will be and how the aviation industry will be affected. None of the previous recessions provide a good model on which to base predictions; the 2002 airline industry recession had completely different causes, and the industry in the early 90s was totally different to today's; for example, no low cost carriers increasing passenger numbers by 19% (Ryanair) and 17.8% (easyJet) when there is supposed to be a downturn.
The truth is that we have been through a period of boom hiring (a so-called pilot shortage), and we are undoubtedly in a period of jobs being thin on the ground (and an excess of pilots). But there are jobs out there, and someday (I don't know when) the industry will be back on its relentless growth. To be really frank, the worldwide pilot training industry could not produce the numbers of additional pilots that many 'experts' were forecasting as recently as 6 months ago that the industry would require. The recession is going to be tough for individuals, for employers and for the training industry. Those with a long view will be focused on surviving the recession and be poised for the inevitable upturn when it does come.
Should you put off going into training? Its a personal decision. If you do start out now, do so with the understanding that it might be a difficult employment market when you graduate and as a graduate you will not be top of the employers' shopping list. But don't let a naysayer stop you if you have considered the downside.
WWW have you considered that some people might find this a very convenient time to train? What are they going to do as an alternative; get a job in banking?
There is always room on this forum for a broad spectrum of opinions; surely it is not acceptable to insult others just because their opinions do not coincide with your own?
Certainly we are in an economic downturn. Undoubtedly it is really tough for those graduating from flight training today. It would be wise for anyone contemplating starting out now to consider the potential downside. However, nobody really knows how deep and long this recession will be and how the aviation industry will be affected. None of the previous recessions provide a good model on which to base predictions; the 2002 airline industry recession had completely different causes, and the industry in the early 90s was totally different to today's; for example, no low cost carriers increasing passenger numbers by 19% (Ryanair) and 17.8% (easyJet) when there is supposed to be a downturn.
The truth is that we have been through a period of boom hiring (a so-called pilot shortage), and we are undoubtedly in a period of jobs being thin on the ground (and an excess of pilots). But there are jobs out there, and someday (I don't know when) the industry will be back on its relentless growth. To be really frank, the worldwide pilot training industry could not produce the numbers of additional pilots that many 'experts' were forecasting as recently as 6 months ago that the industry would require. The recession is going to be tough for individuals, for employers and for the training industry. Those with a long view will be focused on surviving the recession and be poised for the inevitable upturn when it does come.
Should you put off going into training? Its a personal decision. If you do start out now, do so with the understanding that it might be a difficult employment market when you graduate and as a graduate you will not be top of the employers' shopping list. But don't let a naysayer stop you if you have considered the downside.
WWW have you considered that some people might find this a very convenient time to train? What are they going to do as an alternative; get a job in banking?
There is always room on this forum for a broad spectrum of opinions; surely it is not acceptable to insult others just because their opinions do not coincide with your own?
WWW have you considered that some people might find this a very convenient time to train? What are they going to do as an alternative; get a job in banking? 
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If you do start out now, do so with the understanding that it might be a difficult employment market when you graduate and as a graduate you will not be top of the employers' shopping list
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I seem to remember, WWW, that was just the time that I launched the CTC cadet scheme, and all the cadets of that era got jobs. Were you as confident in your predictions of doom and gloom then as you are now?
Certainly we are in an economic downturn. Undoubtedly it is really tough for those graduating from flight training today. It would be wise for anyone contemplating starting out now to consider the potential downside. However, nobody really knows how deep and long this recession will be and how the aviation industry will be affected. None of the previous recessions provide a good model on which to base predictions; the 2002 airline industry recession had completely different causes, and the industry in the early 90s was totally different to today's; for example, no low cost carriers increasing passenger numbers by 19% (Ryanair) and 17.8% (easyJet) when there is supposed to be a downturn.
The truth is that we have been through a period of boom hiring (a so-called pilot shortage), and we are undoubtedly in a period of jobs being thin on the ground (and an excess of pilots). But there are jobs out there, and someday (I don't know when) the industry will be back on its relentless growth. To be really frank, the worldwide pilot training industry could not produce the numbers of additional pilots that many 'experts' were forecasting as recently as 6 months ago that the industry would require. The recession is going to be tough for individuals, for employers and for the training industry. Those with a long view will be focused on surviving the recession and be poised for the inevitable upturn when it does come.
Should you put off going into training? Its a personal decision. If you do start out now, do so with the understanding that it might be a difficult employment market when you graduate and as a graduate you will not be top of the employers' shopping list. But don't let a naysayer stop you if you have considered the downside.
WWW have you considered that some people might find this a very convenient time to train? What are they going to do as an alternative; get a job in banking?
There is always room on this forum for a broad spectrum of opinions; surely it is not acceptable to insult others just because their opinions do not coincide with your own?
Certainly we are in an economic downturn. Undoubtedly it is really tough for those graduating from flight training today. It would be wise for anyone contemplating starting out now to consider the potential downside. However, nobody really knows how deep and long this recession will be and how the aviation industry will be affected. None of the previous recessions provide a good model on which to base predictions; the 2002 airline industry recession had completely different causes, and the industry in the early 90s was totally different to today's; for example, no low cost carriers increasing passenger numbers by 19% (Ryanair) and 17.8% (easyJet) when there is supposed to be a downturn.
The truth is that we have been through a period of boom hiring (a so-called pilot shortage), and we are undoubtedly in a period of jobs being thin on the ground (and an excess of pilots). But there are jobs out there, and someday (I don't know when) the industry will be back on its relentless growth. To be really frank, the worldwide pilot training industry could not produce the numbers of additional pilots that many 'experts' were forecasting as recently as 6 months ago that the industry would require. The recession is going to be tough for individuals, for employers and for the training industry. Those with a long view will be focused on surviving the recession and be poised for the inevitable upturn when it does come.
Should you put off going into training? Its a personal decision. If you do start out now, do so with the understanding that it might be a difficult employment market when you graduate and as a graduate you will not be top of the employers' shopping list. But don't let a naysayer stop you if you have considered the downside.
WWW have you considered that some people might find this a very convenient time to train? What are they going to do as an alternative; get a job in banking?
There is always room on this forum for a broad spectrum of opinions; surely it is not acceptable to insult others just because their opinions do not coincide with your own?
It's almost uncanny how the Flight Training Industry and the Real Estate Industry operate on the same wave length and use the same sort of language.
They've even got their own set of paid "experts" who make great "forecasts", all pointing to a rosy future.
Remember how right after the US housing bubble broke the same "experts" that were saying housing would go up forever started staying that the bottom is right around the corner and recovery is only a few months a way?
How many years ago was that now? Where is US real estate today? Years later it's still going down...
I'm still waiting for the flight training industry to use the term "soft landing"... that would seem a good phrase.
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Mrs McGilvary
On the plus side my local paper carried an ad saying that Mrs McGilvary of 28 Acacia Avenue requires a woman in three mornings a week! Its not all bad folks.
.................I hope you got Mrs McGilvary's permission to publish her ad in the public domain!!!
.................I hope you got Mrs McGilvary's permission to publish her ad in the public domain!!!
Rod, thanks for contributing. I don't want to insult anyone but I do succumb to exasperation on occasion. There are waves of wannabes out there who simply don't understand a recession or the history of the airline business and they hurl themselves at it with almost reckless levels of research. It is to this audience that I am primarily speaking.
Anyone whose done a bit of research, knows a bit about the world and knows how the industry has fared in past decades gets nothing more than my best wishes for their training.
Your point about this being a good time for some people to train is one I made some months ago. I pointed out that in the last recession the flying training industry was very grateful for the people who were spending their redundancy cheque on following their long held dream of career switching. This will happen again. Perhaps it will be even more marked than last time because recently so much of flying training has been funded by unsecured lending or equity release.
As I type the president of the European Central Bank is on Sky News saying how we are confronted by the worst economic situation in 60 years.
Wannabes can take little comfort by the increasing passenger loads from Ryanair or easyJet. In the latters case they bought GB Airways in February and got all their pax. In both cases virtually all those extra passengers came at the expense of other airlines going bust or reducing operations. For example both companies have been able to put over 30 aircraft into Italy over the past 12 months as Alitalia reduces flights and people avoid them for fear of them going bust. It makes sense for Italian wannabes be hired for those roles despite the companies being Irish or British.
Rod, you know that low time newly qualified pilots have a limited shelf life. A year of fruitless job hunting and minimum hours to keep their rating current will put them in a very rusty position to pass a sim assessment or type rating course. Therefore it is critically important NOT to complete training into a stagnant market. Ticking along market, booming market, slowing market, normal market all these are fine. Just focus on avoiding the stagnant market.
I stand by my belief, as expressed in 2001/2, that we are now in a stagnant market and this is unlikely to be over for 2 years. As such I wouldn't let my kids start flying training beyond a PPL in 2009.
Its just an opinion. Unfortunately its an opinion that the trade publications find difficult to express due to their reliance on FTO advertising. So it gets aired and discussed here because Wannabes are massively interested in it.
I look forward to writing once more, as I did in 2005, that we are "entering a golden age for wannabes". When jobs were in abundance and 190hr self sponsored type rating guys were getting B737 FO job offers before they finished their course with GECAT.
WWW
Anyone whose done a bit of research, knows a bit about the world and knows how the industry has fared in past decades gets nothing more than my best wishes for their training.
Your point about this being a good time for some people to train is one I made some months ago. I pointed out that in the last recession the flying training industry was very grateful for the people who were spending their redundancy cheque on following their long held dream of career switching. This will happen again. Perhaps it will be even more marked than last time because recently so much of flying training has been funded by unsecured lending or equity release.
As I type the president of the European Central Bank is on Sky News saying how we are confronted by the worst economic situation in 60 years.
Wannabes can take little comfort by the increasing passenger loads from Ryanair or easyJet. In the latters case they bought GB Airways in February and got all their pax. In both cases virtually all those extra passengers came at the expense of other airlines going bust or reducing operations. For example both companies have been able to put over 30 aircraft into Italy over the past 12 months as Alitalia reduces flights and people avoid them for fear of them going bust. It makes sense for Italian wannabes be hired for those roles despite the companies being Irish or British.
Rod, you know that low time newly qualified pilots have a limited shelf life. A year of fruitless job hunting and minimum hours to keep their rating current will put them in a very rusty position to pass a sim assessment or type rating course. Therefore it is critically important NOT to complete training into a stagnant market. Ticking along market, booming market, slowing market, normal market all these are fine. Just focus on avoiding the stagnant market.
I stand by my belief, as expressed in 2001/2, that we are now in a stagnant market and this is unlikely to be over for 2 years. As such I wouldn't let my kids start flying training beyond a PPL in 2009.
Its just an opinion. Unfortunately its an opinion that the trade publications find difficult to express due to their reliance on FTO advertising. So it gets aired and discussed here because Wannabes are massively interested in it.
I look forward to writing once more, as I did in 2005, that we are "entering a golden age for wannabes". When jobs were in abundance and 190hr self sponsored type rating guys were getting B737 FO job offers before they finished their course with GECAT.
WWW
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I know ive disagreed with WWW in the past, but he speaks the truth. I have personal friends who have finished training in the past 6 months and have not been able to get a single interview. Most have gone back to their old jobs (if they were able to) to start paying back their massive bank loans.
What i would suggest to anyone who absolutely MUST START TRAINING FOR THEIR DREAM JOB NOW!!, is wait until at least mid 2009 to start slowly taking flights towards their ppl. Then in 2010 take their time to really learn the ATPL exams and by late 2010/early 2011 be in a position to commence CPL/IR training on first signs of the market recovering.
Anyone starting training now towards a fast track integrated type 0-atpl course is not just 'following the dream', theyre just being stupid. The world is in crisis, and the airline industry is in crisis, and you personally will most likely be in a financial crisis soon if you start training now.
Wake up people.
What i would suggest to anyone who absolutely MUST START TRAINING FOR THEIR DREAM JOB NOW!!, is wait until at least mid 2009 to start slowly taking flights towards their ppl. Then in 2010 take their time to really learn the ATPL exams and by late 2010/early 2011 be in a position to commence CPL/IR training on first signs of the market recovering.
Anyone starting training now towards a fast track integrated type 0-atpl course is not just 'following the dream', theyre just being stupid. The world is in crisis, and the airline industry is in crisis, and you personally will most likely be in a financial crisis soon if you start training now.
Wake up people.
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I found this computer flight simulator game on the CTC website
Have a go and see if you have the aptitude to be an airline pilot
CTC Wings
Not sure if this counts as FTO marketing spin tho....
Have a go and see if you have the aptitude to be an airline pilot
CTC Wings
Not sure if this counts as FTO marketing spin tho....
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On the subject of upturns, downturns and CTC..
Has anyone any statistics as to the number of CTC wings cadets who are getting placements at the end of their course with their 60k bond?
The CTC wings thread reads a bit like lambs to slaughter at the moment.
Lambs who have not read the bit which says, 'should we be unable to place you for any reason...'
I genuinely hope that their enthusiasm is not misplaced in the current climate/upturn/downturn or whatever.
Has anyone any statistics as to the number of CTC wings cadets who are getting placements at the end of their course with their 60k bond?
The CTC wings thread reads a bit like lambs to slaughter at the moment.
Lambs who have not read the bit which says, 'should we be unable to place you for any reason...'
I genuinely hope that their enthusiasm is not misplaced in the current climate/upturn/downturn or whatever.