PPRuNe Forums - View Single Post - Growing Evidence That The Upturn Is Upon Us
Old 2nd Dec 2008, 17:20
  #1371 (permalink)  
Re-Heat
 
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For the record, I don't make predictions, so let me phrase this carefully.

I expect that airlines are now at the bottom of their recession at present. I believe that cutbacks to capacity and delivery delays will serve their purpose in ensuring that some airlines are profitable despite travel having declines to near 1998 level. Fuel prices have abated, and tough discussions with employees and suppliers will allow them to ride the remainder of the bottom of this recession.

I fully expect consumer spending to tank further, but the airlines themselves to be an investment that will hold flat for a while longer - retailers and industrial machinery will be the focus for the next year of depressing financial news.

However, in consideration of all this, I do not know what will happen, nor will I attempt to predict what will happen. I will do as I have always done and position myself to ride the recession out.

What this means for wannabes is: position yourself adequately, and considering that all those new orders are likely to be delayed (while older aircraft are retired), think well about when the upturn in recruiting is likely to be - it will not be just as the economy starts recovering in - say - 2011, but more likely 2014.


Be informed, be educated, don't bet the ranch.
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