Growing Evidence That The Upturn Is Upon Us
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That's interesting....I bet those figures won't be reported in the national news or press though....too much like good news and good news doesn't sell papers or keep viewers!!!
Another "Association Leader" making another prediction about yet more doom and gloom. Just what the world needs right now. Thank god for his input because I was thinking next year would be a bed of roses! Blimey if that hadn't been mentioned we would have all been totally caught by surprise when 2009 turns out to be a bit pants!
He wasn't one of those informed economists that predicted oil rising to over $200 by the end of the year was he????
Another "Association Leader" making another prediction about yet more doom and gloom. Just what the world needs right now. Thank god for his input because I was thinking next year would be a bed of roses! Blimey if that hadn't been mentioned we would have all been totally caught by surprise when 2009 turns out to be a bit pants!
He wasn't one of those informed economists that predicted oil rising to over $200 by the end of the year was he????
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Ryanair November Traffic up by 11%, load factor up 1% Ryanair.com
Easyjet November Traffic up 3.4%, load factor up 3.1% Easyjet.com
Easyjet November Traffic up 3.4%, load factor up 3.1% Easyjet.com
Load factors are hardly the best measure of the industry.
If Ryan parked half its fleet tomorrow, it could increase its load factor by 1000 percent... Good news?
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Yes, it's always a problem when inconvenient facts don't follow the 'expert's' model, isn't it? I'm still struggling with the predictions of $150 oil by Christmas. This is a good one as well Telegraph financial expert speaks
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When we're those bookings for flights in November made Alex... before the banking world/economy fell apart in late September or before??
Thank God the pound isn't at an all time low vs the Euro.... those European breaks are going to be soooo much cheaper than last year.... everyone is going to be scrabbling to get over to Europe now the £ is so strong.
How many jets do Ryanair currently have parked up for the winter to get the load factor up? (I honestly don't know the answer to this one).
Glad to hear things are going so well at Easy that they haven't got rid of the CTC cadets after a 6 month stint at the airline... oh... but they did bin them!?? how does that work if passenger numbers are expected to keep growing??.
Is there not a recruitment freeze at Easy? How many pilots do you think Ryanair will take on in the next 12 months??
Stop driving looking in the rear view mirror... it is dangerous. But I admire your (misplaced) optimism.... it has served this country well for a long time and will no doubt be needed in coming months.... but to say this isn't the worst down turn in the aviation industry for at least 20-30 years is starting to sound like pathetic marketing Alex and it is a bit insulting to those who have already lost their jobs to say traffic numbers a still going up.
Thank God the pound isn't at an all time low vs the Euro.... those European breaks are going to be soooo much cheaper than last year.... everyone is going to be scrabbling to get over to Europe now the £ is so strong.
How many jets do Ryanair currently have parked up for the winter to get the load factor up? (I honestly don't know the answer to this one).
Glad to hear things are going so well at Easy that they haven't got rid of the CTC cadets after a 6 month stint at the airline... oh... but they did bin them!?? how does that work if passenger numbers are expected to keep growing??.
Is there not a recruitment freeze at Easy? How many pilots do you think Ryanair will take on in the next 12 months??
Stop driving looking in the rear view mirror... it is dangerous. But I admire your (misplaced) optimism.... it has served this country well for a long time and will no doubt be needed in coming months.... but to say this isn't the worst down turn in the aviation industry for at least 20-30 years is starting to sound like pathetic marketing Alex and it is a bit insulting to those who have already lost their jobs to say traffic numbers a still going up.
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bugger me better go and train to be an airline pilot... there are going to be sh*t loads of jobs around.
Care to put your money where you mouth is?? Do you still expect industry figures as a whole to be up year on year at the end of the first half of next year? How about a £20 wager for the Pprune fund?
P.S.
Ryanair numbers:
Sept Oct Nov
5.23mn 5.35mn 4.32mn
+20% +18% +11% yoy
Hmmmmmm do I detect a trend?? How unexpected.....
Care to put your money where you mouth is?? Do you still expect industry figures as a whole to be up year on year at the end of the first half of next year? How about a £20 wager for the Pprune fund?
P.S.
Ryanair numbers:
Sept Oct Nov
5.23mn 5.35mn 4.32mn
+20% +18% +11% yoy
Hmmmmmm do I detect a trend?? How unexpected.....
Last edited by Grass strip basher; 10th Dec 2008 at 15:05.
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Oh dear, here we go again. This is what I said last month:
'Again, you misunderstand me. I completely agree that this is a time for wannabees to be extremely cautious, particularly with borrowed money. I am merely observing that the data from the Low Costs, from as recently as October, flies in the face of your arguements and predictions.'
Please delete 'October' and insert 'November'. Ranting doesn't help your case.
Tell you what, though. I will take WWW's carefully defined bet of a month ago. He said:
'I promise Wannabes on pain of eating my Kangaroo skin hat with salt and pepper that in 2009 several significant EU airlines will go bust. By several I mean >10 and by significant I mean having more than >30 jets.'
I'll put £100 in the PPRuNe fund if he is right but, if he is wrong, I do want to see that hat eaten.
Do you detect a trend? A prize for the man! He's figured out the Low Costs are busier in the summer.
'Again, you misunderstand me. I completely agree that this is a time for wannabees to be extremely cautious, particularly with borrowed money. I am merely observing that the data from the Low Costs, from as recently as October, flies in the face of your arguements and predictions.'
Please delete 'October' and insert 'November'. Ranting doesn't help your case.
Tell you what, though. I will take WWW's carefully defined bet of a month ago. He said:
'I promise Wannabes on pain of eating my Kangaroo skin hat with salt and pepper that in 2009 several significant EU airlines will go bust. By several I mean >10 and by significant I mean having more than >30 jets.'
I'll put £100 in the PPRuNe fund if he is right but, if he is wrong, I do want to see that hat eaten.
Do you detect a trend? A prize for the man! He's figured out the Low Costs are busier in the summer.
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i'll take that as a no to the bet then ... I added the monthly Ryanair run rate to my last post if that helps.... + not ranting just surprised you think things will hold up into the new year. These booking would have been made up to 6 months ago when flights were released... you and I both know they don't reflect the current reality.
P.S. I know about seasonality.... which is why I put the yoy growth rates slowing significantly despite fleet expansion.... oooh and on airlines going bust what if they merge and fire bucket loads of flight crew??.... or does that not count?
P.S. I know about seasonality.... which is why I put the yoy growth rates slowing significantly despite fleet expansion.... oooh and on airlines going bust what if they merge and fire bucket loads of flight crew??.... or does that not count?
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Unfortunately Alex the bottom line is the doomsayers have been proved 110% right so far.... you have been wrong..... the job outlook for newly qualified pilots is simply horrific.... worst for 20-30yrs.... even you aren't arguing with that surely??
There's nothing wrong with a hint of positivity and Alex your factual points are well made and pertinent, thanks for your continued input.
Yield is of course the key. With every airline seeing profits slump and their share prices decimating perhaps there is little comfort in increasing load factors and seat capacity at a few airlines. I would love to take great comfort in it, but frankly, I don't.
I genuinely do not want those that provide the glass half full side of the this debate to feel embattled and unwanted. You're not. Whilst I'm pretty sure of my position that this is going to be worse than the 1990-1993 airline miasma there are major differences to the industry this time and its not a foregone conclusion. Every recession probably looks like the worst one ever at the onset. There probably is no need to go out and buy land and guns and start digging.
In the medium term torrid recessions are good as they act like a forest fire and create space for the strong trees to come back and thrive more vigorously. Undoubtably we will lose some airlines but that will make the business models of those that remain much more viable in the longer run. With low barriers to entry and near instant price discovery this industry has for the last several decades seen businesses furiously fighting over the last 1% of the market. The result of that fight has been the massively deteriorated terms and conditions for those newly joining airlines.
They key point for wannabes is not to go for a picnic in the forest whilst the fire rages. Come back in just a couple of years and things will be growing back furiously and all will be beautiful. Whilst the fire rampages its all ugly and terrifying.
WWW
Yield is of course the key. With every airline seeing profits slump and their share prices decimating perhaps there is little comfort in increasing load factors and seat capacity at a few airlines. I would love to take great comfort in it, but frankly, I don't.
I genuinely do not want those that provide the glass half full side of the this debate to feel embattled and unwanted. You're not. Whilst I'm pretty sure of my position that this is going to be worse than the 1990-1993 airline miasma there are major differences to the industry this time and its not a foregone conclusion. Every recession probably looks like the worst one ever at the onset. There probably is no need to go out and buy land and guns and start digging.
In the medium term torrid recessions are good as they act like a forest fire and create space for the strong trees to come back and thrive more vigorously. Undoubtably we will lose some airlines but that will make the business models of those that remain much more viable in the longer run. With low barriers to entry and near instant price discovery this industry has for the last several decades seen businesses furiously fighting over the last 1% of the market. The result of that fight has been the massively deteriorated terms and conditions for those newly joining airlines.
They key point for wannabes is not to go for a picnic in the forest whilst the fire rages. Come back in just a couple of years and things will be growing back furiously and all will be beautiful. Whilst the fire rampages its all ugly and terrifying.
WWW
Here's a glimmer of hope:
Peer Steinbrück on the Global Economic Crisis | Newsweek International Edition | Newsweek.com
That glimmer being that at least in the German finance ministry somebody isn't panicking and has a clue about what has happened and what to do next. Which probably *isn't* heap more debt on a debt crisis..
WWW
Peer Steinbrück on the Global Economic Crisis | Newsweek International Edition | Newsweek.com
That glimmer being that at least in the German finance ministry somebody isn't panicking and has a clue about what has happened and what to do next. Which probably *isn't* heap more debt on a debt crisis..
WWW
I was quite looking forward to the spectacle of a Kangaroo skin hat being consumed in its entirety, WWW's bet being cordially accepted by Alex W earlier:
Imagine my delight to be greeted this morning by the e mail response from WWW:
I had a slight worry that WWW may have valued his hat at somewhat greater than £100 and hoped he could switch the bet to being £100 instead of the gourmet meal on his part, but worse, the post doesn't seem to be visible to the wider audience. I do hope a diligent (worried?!) moderator hasn't chosen to censor it for whatever reason, and that WWW isn't wriggling out of what appeared to be a genuine gentleman's bet between two honourable folk.
I had 0001 on 01 January 2010 down in my diary as a hat eating gourmet-fest which had all the makings of being completely unmissable - indeed, probably worthy of TV coverage for that wider audience. I do hope we're not going to be disappointed!
Of course, on the other hand, WWW might be right, and at least 10 major airline will go bust, in which case I'm sure someone of Alex's excellent reputation and character would ensure that his £100 winged its way to the appropriate fund without quibble, hesitation, deviation (or repetition).
I'm sure however that most PPRuNers would not wish for such disappointment (the loss of jobs that is!) and that the hat eating spectacle will go ahead as per the very clear bet between WWW and Alex W, witnessed by all on this thread.
I just hope that enough of us save the contents of the thread - wouldn't it be dreadful if it were somehow accidentally deleted with no other record other than the ones we have kept to cover such unfortunate circumstances.
Tell you what, though. I will take WWW's carefully defined bet of a month ago. He said:
'I promise Wannabes on pain of eating my Kangaroo skin hat with salt and pepper that in 2009 several significant EU airlines will go bust. By several I mean >10 and by significant I mean having more than >30 jets.'
'I promise Wannabes on pain of eating my Kangaroo skin hat with salt and pepper that in 2009 several significant EU airlines will go bust. By several I mean >10 and by significant I mean having more than >30 jets.'
Wee Weasley Welshman has just replied to a thread you have subscribed to entitled - Growing Evidence That The Upturn Is Upon Us - in the Professional Pilot Training (includes ground studies) forum of PPRuNe Forums.... Here is the message that has just been posted:
***************
I stand by my hat. All views are equal and welcome. This is a debate not a sermon.. 10 airlines * 30 jets = £100 to the fund no problem.
Www from my iPhone
***************
***************
I stand by my hat. All views are equal and welcome. This is a debate not a sermon.. 10 airlines * 30 jets = £100 to the fund no problem.
Www from my iPhone
***************
I had 0001 on 01 January 2010 down in my diary as a hat eating gourmet-fest which had all the makings of being completely unmissable - indeed, probably worthy of TV coverage for that wider audience. I do hope we're not going to be disappointed!
Of course, on the other hand, WWW might be right, and at least 10 major airline will go bust, in which case I'm sure someone of Alex's excellent reputation and character would ensure that his £100 winged its way to the appropriate fund without quibble, hesitation, deviation (or repetition).
I'm sure however that most PPRuNers would not wish for such disappointment (the loss of jobs that is!) and that the hat eating spectacle will go ahead as per the very clear bet between WWW and Alex W, witnessed by all on this thread.
I just hope that enough of us save the contents of the thread - wouldn't it be dreadful if it were somehow accidentally deleted with no other record other than the ones we have kept to cover such unfortunate circumstances.
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Large airlines/flag carriers won't go bust... they will merge with significant subsequent job losses.... BMI/Luft.... BA/Quantas/Iberia/my grans airline... Northwest/Delta etc etc.... hell even talk of Emirates/Ethiad out in the desert (would mainly be ground ops though)
I fear WWW will lose this on a technicality but the overall impact on the wanabee employment market is pretty much the same.
I fear WWW will lose this on a technicality but the overall impact on the wanabee employment market is pretty much the same.
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Perhaps we should buy a load of cheap repossed houses in Nevada... knock them down and then offer to park planes on the land for the next 3 years?? Solve the US housing crisis and airline overcapacity and make a quick buck 