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Growing Evidence That The Upturn Is Upon Us

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Growing Evidence That The Upturn Is Upon Us

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Old 1st Nov 2008, 01:04
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Uni Students get all worked up because they finish their course with a £30 (ish) K debt yet wannabee pilots seem cool about a 100K debt.

The stakes are much higher for both the aviation student and school with multiple mortgages on aircraft, sims and premises rental costs. I dunno about giving potential students impartial advise, it would appear some of the larger schools are feeding these potentially nieve and vulnerable youngsters down right BS!

I suspect the wiser wannabees will have read parts of this thread then picked up a news paper (or watched BBC news) and changed their plans appropriately saving themselves a lot of money and heart ache. That's justification for this thread alone.
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Old 1st Nov 2008, 02:04
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I'm a wannabe who has been following this thread with great interest since it started and yes my plans have changed considerably in response to the current turmoil. I was initially planning to go the integrated route courtesy of my friendly neighbourhood bank manager but now plan to save as much as I can and go the modular route, paying as I go along, (funny how this time last year a 70k+ loan seemed like a sound investment but now seems more like insanity). Hopefully in 4-5 yrs when i'm the proud owner of a faptl things will start to look up in terms of recruitment. so thankyou to WWW, Heli-port,ChrisLKKB, spinnaker and everyone else who was shared their experience/advice and helped me make (hopefully) the right choices.
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Old 1st Nov 2008, 07:58
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Got your point.

Uni Students finish the school, 30 k debt, get a job or not.
Aviation Student finish the school, 100 k debt, get a job or not.
Hold it right there. The risk is much higher for Aviation students. Thus the market offers higher wages to pilots on average.

The aviation industry is one of the least probitable industries in the market. It's kind of a 'cool' industry. Nature of rivalry is intense and exclusive on price. Very hard to differentiate. Constant flow of new airlines into the game. You can simply lease a plane. All generic technology. You can simply start connection between two cities. Customer is very price-sensitive. Suppliers of aircraft and engines, and airport gates have a lot of bargaining power. They get most of the profit. There are always some substitutes like getting into the train, driving your car, shipping your goods by sea. Finally unionised labour (pilots in particular) can literally shut you down. I admire aviation industry managers.

But we love to fly.

WWW: do you agree?
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Old 1st Nov 2008, 08:06
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Oil prices up after record falls

Oil prices rose almost 3% on Friday - but falling demand pushed crude to its biggest monthly drop in October
.

BBC NEWS | Business | Oil prices up after record falls


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Old 1st Nov 2008, 09:03
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Thus the market offers higher wages to pilots on average.
Your joking, right? It is a hell of a lot easier to pay back 30k worth of debt with a good graduate job then it is to pay back 80K (sometimes more) worth of debt as a very poorly paid First Officer.

The outlook doesn't compare favourably for pilots until at least Captaincy and possibly not even then. Example - my girlfriend, 30 years old, a graduate and a consultant with a well known international consultancy firm earning 75k per year (and she's blonde). Her job considerably safer then many pilots jobs at the moment. The big big money isn't until Long Haul Captain or Training Captain.

The fact of the matter is that Pilots are not amongst the highest earners and particularly when compared to the investment they have made. There will always be that steady supply of pilots who have placed aviation on a pedastal and are prepared to pay through the nose to follow their dreams. FTOs simply play on and manipulate this passion to assure their existence and keep the wheels of the "system" turning.

It takes the likes of WWW et al to keep wannabees in touch with reality.

NGB
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Old 1st Nov 2008, 09:25
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Your joking, right? It is a hell of a lot easier to pay back 30k worth of debt with a good graduate job then it is to pay back 80K (sometimes more) worth of debt as a very poorly paid First Officer.
I take your point but it depends on your definition of poorly paid. Not every airline pays peanuts - I certainly don't consider myself poorly paid. It obviously depends on type and experience but within 18 months of starting as an F/O I was on more than my parents ever earned combined and I comfortably out-earn friends from home/uni who went into other careers, so an F/O wage, certainly if flying jets early in a career, compares favourably to the majority of graduate jobs.

It is very possible to service repayments of circa £1000 a month if you can quickly get into the RHS of a jet, unfreeze the ATPL (with associated payrise) and not have many other commitments.

If you have a mortgage and kids and/or can't get the first break on the other hand, life is more interesting.
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Old 1st Nov 2008, 10:34
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I completed my MCC 5 months ago and took up a job as a driver for a big International organision,Driving the the top brass,i earn an equivalent of 3000 pounds per month take home first class health insuarance valid worlwide and very good pension plan,i only have to pick the boss from home take him to work,chill out half the day .reading newspapers,take him for the odd meeting then back at home at five.

Now i have spent thousands to get my flight training done,the first job that i can land here, the average salary would be an equivalent 2200 pounds i will have forked out tens of thousands to get typed no medical no pension plan and work like a dog,

Why do i do this? i want to achieve a life long dream,will i do this until i retire? no ways.
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Old 1st Nov 2008, 13:12
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There is no monetary benefit in being a first officer these days, especially if you have to service a loan.

Even in this current climate a friend of mine is grossing in excess of 50K as a contract electician, and his job is a lot safer than most pilots out there as he works on projects for well capitalised companies. (And positions like these wont cost you 100K or even 30K, more like a few hundred and a couple of years day release while earning good money during the day as an electricians mate.)

There are plenty of well paid jobs out there for graduates if you choose your career path with your head and not your heart.

I suspect the reason that first officer positions are reasonably paid is more down to a pay structure driven by the unions either directly or indirectly (in order to compete with other companies) than any benevolence towards wannabees who've burried themselves with debt.
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Old 1st Nov 2008, 13:26
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NGB,

I am not joking. I take your point, but you missed mine - 'on average'. I also did not specify between Captains, FO's or Training Captains. Or even between long-haul or short-haul. I do admit that this is just a poor guess based on the airline industry in my country.

(she is blonde) ok all of us have our own aspirations and (thank god) we are free to choose our future. If your assumption regarding the highest earners was correct then we would all take the job of your girlfriend and become consultants or the like. I do not wish to change the color of my hair of course by the way.

Food for thought, we can become airline pilots 1 1/2 years. To become an engineer we need to study at least 3 years, this of course without a MSc.

Yvla,
Sorry to say but your drviver job sounds a bit boring to me. I am sure it is great to you. I do understand why you want to achieve a life long dream. That is partly what life is all about.

I also do not think we need WWW to keep touch with reality; we could instead just put a message every time we log in on Pprune advising:

'Do not start training now and until the economy recovers from the present recession and dont tell us we have warn you signed; we will advise you when the economy is healthy again. signed ...'

We certainly need to ear the ideas of everyone (and WWW's 'moderation' in the first place.)
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Old 1st Nov 2008, 13:36
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It is meaningless to compare pilots' pay with high-earning jobs unless that is what you would otherwise be likely to be doing. I know a couple of ex-electricians who are now flying because the work was so tedious, and I for one would not want to be a consultant, and few people get the opportunity.

Most people who leave university start on well under £20k. A lot work in bars, shops or menial office jobs in which their degrees are meaningless for months or even years. With 30k of debt and no obvious advancement that is a rather more difficult prospect than surviving on even a turboprop FO's salary, usually significantly more than £20k starting, knowing that experience does count and the pay will rise. I have not checked lately, but a little over two years after starting my first public-transport job I came into the top 5% of earnings in the UK. The fact that in the UK that is still difficult to live on is down to the government.
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Old 1st Nov 2008, 14:02
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I don't think there is any doubt that pilots are reasonably paid in the grand scope of things.

But for a while I have seen the fact that the industry needs wannabies constantly ploughing money in.

The revenue would get a chunk taken out of it in VAT.

I can't imagine how many other tax payers wouldn't have a job if the flow stopped.

The UK aviation industry would be shafted and sluggish to respond to the market forces.

So I know its a bit heartless but wannabies getting shafted for 50-100k is how the system needs to be to allow the UK to remain flexible to market forces.

I am glad its not my money though.
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Old 1st Nov 2008, 14:23
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Chris: are you a pilot with no monetary benefit?
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Old 1st Nov 2008, 14:26
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What might be an interesting fact is how well attended the flyer exbo is today....imho two things will put the world on a more positive footing is Lewis and Barry do the business over the next few days I will be very happy!!!
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Old 1st Nov 2008, 18:56
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I know a couple of ex-electricians who are now flying because the work was so tedious
Blimey, if they thought being a spark was tedious I doubt airline flying is for them
Of course if they stick it out or aren't made redundant first in years to come, potentially the pay packet will compensate for the hours of boredom sat in their arses.

Chris: are you a pilot with no monetary benefit?
well I have a CPL but don't earn a living from flying so there is no monetary benefit whatsoever for me right now or the forseeable future. Taken in the context of the post though, as an fo with a loan, there is no monetary benefit over many jobs either. It's not particularly difficult to match or better an FOs wages with or without a degree if you can network and are willing to travel (no different to an FO).

IMO, in many respects if you love flying, given this current climate you'd be better off getting a well paid job outside of aviation, buying a share in an aircraft and flying as a hobby in order for it to maintain it's long term appeal. Having the kudos of being an airline pilot, wearing the hat with scrambled egg on and driving the great unwashed around the sky has no appeal for me personally.
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Old 1st Nov 2008, 21:39
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ChrisLKKB

One of them is flying airline, the other GA. Both far prefer the work. Remember time sat on your arse is time available to read a book or a newspaper. Not like constant but dull work.
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Old 1st Nov 2008, 22:27
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You've never worked as a spark have you
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Old 2nd Nov 2008, 01:41
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And reading a book or the newspaper is very frowned apon in the cruise.

I thought one captain was having a heart attack and was ignoring him, in the hope I could log some pic time.

Turned out he didn't like sudoko on the flight deck. The times crossword was OK though
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Old 2nd Nov 2008, 08:03
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Chris, fair enough. Appreciate your view. You do not earn a living as an airline pilot. This job is not for you and it does not appeal you.

Everyone has different aspirations, and (thank god) we are free to choose our future. I want to fly for a living, and am willing to accept the (very high) risks of this very high profile profession.

In my country, on average airline pilots have higher wages then other qualified (and not less respectable) professions like eg engineers. I do however confess that I have not carried out any analysis of my assumption and this is purely based on coffee converstations. In other words, is rather worthless. Not sure how and where you are basing your own assumption.

Food for though, you need to study 3 years to become a qualified engineer (without a MSc) not to mention plus a few years in college. To become an airline pilot you need 1 1/2 years. If there was no monetary benefits to become a airline pilot everyone would become eg electricians.
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Old 2nd Nov 2008, 21:32
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My main point although probably not entirely clear was there are cheaper and safer ways to earn a good crust with better job security, particularly in todays climate.

I think a lot of guys get carried away with the romanticism of airline flying which didn't matter quite so much 10 or 20+ years ago when it didn't cost so much to train, airline jobs were more secure and there weren't the oppotunites to earn big money in other fields.

The situation is different now, never has it been so bad for wanabee pilots with extortionate trainning costs, poor job prospects and poor job security. This could well be the turning point in the market for self funded pilot recruitment and we may well start to see a change in the way pilots are recruited in years to come with the MPL or something similar featuring quite heavily.

IMO One possible scenario could be, once this current wave of dreamers pass through the mincer with few if any getting jobs it may make the next few generations of wannabees think harder about their options, assuming the situation hasn't improved (and I think that's unlikely for some time).

Eventually it may reach the point where there are insuffient fatplers to satisfy demand and the airlines may decide to take a more active part in pilot trainning in order to meet their needs.
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Old 2nd Nov 2008, 22:15
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Eventually it may reach the point where there are insuffient fatplers to satisfy demand
Never. There always has been and always will be an oversupply of fATPLs.

The question is actually will there be a supply of good enough quality.

Because at the moment, for at least 1 major uk airline this is a big problem, and has been for a while...
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