Growing Evidence That The Upturn Is Upon Us
Joined: Sep 2008
Posts: 25
Likes: 0
From: Surrey
Nearly all wannabes will be on the dole for years.
Those are the facts.
Despair.
WWW
Those are the facts.
Despair.
WWW
These people are feeling pretty sick at the moment remember how excited you were when you embarked on your training and the thought of becoming a pilot. I know that these people feel sick enough as it is about the dim prospects and the thought of shattered dreams without having their noses rubbed in it.
Maybe you are aiming your comments at the stupid wreckless people that are going to embark on training regardless of you warnings, but surely there are very few of these now and they are fully informed as to the risks. For those who have the money to blow regardless then good luck to them, they know what the deal is now.
To be quite frank I expect more from a moderator.
Joined: Feb 2008
Posts: 12
Likes: 0
From: Antarctica
WWW's manner is directly proportional to the state of affairs for wannabes. At first he sugar coated most opinions, but he's been saying it for so long with people still arguing his opinions he just says it as it is, which can be painfully blunt if you're one of the people he's talking about!
I'm going to wait a while before embarking on my training. I'm still doing a PPL as soon as I can, and then waiting the long wait.
I'm going to wait a while before embarking on my training. I'm still doing a PPL as soon as I can, and then waiting the long wait.
Joined: Oct 2007
Posts: 145
Likes: 0
From: Salford Lads Club
ChickenTikka, I dont think WWW is doing anything wrong in his warnings to wannabees, not that he needs anyone to defend him Im sure he's big and ugly enough to do that himself (no offence 
).
However you just have to read some posts in this thread and others to see that the message just aint getting through to some, this "dream" seems to knock out some of their common sense! I replied to one the other day who was talking about "yeah, there maybe some job losses in the industry now, but in about 12 to 18 months, they should all be over and things on the up etc etc etc ...."
Bloody hell, what does it take to get through to people like this. Even if things are "on the up" (which is highly highly unlikely), he seemed to assume, okeydokey then, job losses over, thus me with my 200 hrs must be in with a shout.........that just isn't reality, and he's not the only one.
So if anyone's words on here can make these people at least stop, pause, and THINK, then surely it's appropriate. And the message obviously hasn't got through so far to some, so it may need spelling out in harsh, blatant terms.
).However you just have to read some posts in this thread and others to see that the message just aint getting through to some, this "dream" seems to knock out some of their common sense! I replied to one the other day who was talking about "yeah, there maybe some job losses in the industry now, but in about 12 to 18 months, they should all be over and things on the up etc etc etc ...."
Bloody hell, what does it take to get through to people like this. Even if things are "on the up" (which is highly highly unlikely), he seemed to assume, okeydokey then, job losses over, thus me with my 200 hrs must be in with a shout.........that just isn't reality, and he's not the only one.
So if anyone's words on here can make these people at least stop, pause, and THINK, then surely it's appropriate. And the message obviously hasn't got through so far to some, so it may need spelling out in harsh, blatant terms.
Joined: May 2001
Posts: 10,804
Likes: 1
Your never going to get through to a majority of the dreamers.
It's up to them if they don't want to listen to WWW.
Its not our cash in fact its not thier's either most of the time. Let them spend it.
There will always be the few examples of people getting lucky, although to be honest I don't think luck has much to do with it. Its all hard work and determination.
There has always been wash out rates at all stages of the process to getting to fly the line. When times are good a higher proportion of those that first sit in a light aircraft for the porpose of earning a living, when times are bad a lower amount will get there.
I did ask at the CAA why they didn't produce statistics on.
1. Number of intial class 1 medicals issued.
2. Number of initial sittings of ATPL's
3. Number of intial CPL's issued
4. Number of Intial IR's
5. Number of first type ratings issued.
It is classed as highly commercially sensitive information. By not only the training industry but also the CAA and Airlines.
Why because the whole system works by having a glut of supply of new pilots. Airlines need to be able to grab folk off the street. The training system needs a constant through put or it can't keep up with the fluctuations in demand from the airlines. And the CAA needs people in the system or it starts costing them serious amounts of money keeping the system in place and also gives them issues with again the lag time getting things ramped up when demand requires it.
Wannabies are pawns in a very large and expensive industry which is very heavy in capital investment from the very outset of training the small proportion of the staff which is mission critical to its survival. Millions are pumped into the training industry which never earn a penny for the people spending the money.
Its not in anyones interests apart from the pilots themselves for the real state of play in respects to jobs to be fully known. In fact it would kill any chance of airlines being able to react to customer demands.
Its going to be pretty horrible for the next few years. WWW in my opinion is right just now but I suspect it could get a whole lot worse. God forbid Flybe, easyjet or any of the large fleet operators go tits up. It could go quite rapidly from a pain in the bum for the majority to a complete collapse in the pilot market which will take 5 years plus to sort out.
So if you think about it the dreamers are actually helping out the people who take the advice from WWW they are supporting the system so when it does become an acceptable risk to train all the services are still available. The skill is going to be when to commit to training.
It's up to them if they don't want to listen to WWW.
Its not our cash in fact its not thier's either most of the time. Let them spend it.
There will always be the few examples of people getting lucky, although to be honest I don't think luck has much to do with it. Its all hard work and determination.
There has always been wash out rates at all stages of the process to getting to fly the line. When times are good a higher proportion of those that first sit in a light aircraft for the porpose of earning a living, when times are bad a lower amount will get there.
I did ask at the CAA why they didn't produce statistics on.
1. Number of intial class 1 medicals issued.
2. Number of initial sittings of ATPL's
3. Number of intial CPL's issued
4. Number of Intial IR's
5. Number of first type ratings issued.
It is classed as highly commercially sensitive information. By not only the training industry but also the CAA and Airlines.
Why because the whole system works by having a glut of supply of new pilots. Airlines need to be able to grab folk off the street. The training system needs a constant through put or it can't keep up with the fluctuations in demand from the airlines. And the CAA needs people in the system or it starts costing them serious amounts of money keeping the system in place and also gives them issues with again the lag time getting things ramped up when demand requires it.
Wannabies are pawns in a very large and expensive industry which is very heavy in capital investment from the very outset of training the small proportion of the staff which is mission critical to its survival. Millions are pumped into the training industry which never earn a penny for the people spending the money.
Its not in anyones interests apart from the pilots themselves for the real state of play in respects to jobs to be fully known. In fact it would kill any chance of airlines being able to react to customer demands.
Its going to be pretty horrible for the next few years. WWW in my opinion is right just now but I suspect it could get a whole lot worse. God forbid Flybe, easyjet or any of the large fleet operators go tits up. It could go quite rapidly from a pain in the bum for the majority to a complete collapse in the pilot market which will take 5 years plus to sort out.
So if you think about it the dreamers are actually helping out the people who take the advice from WWW they are supporting the system so when it does become an acceptable risk to train all the services are still available. The skill is going to be when to commit to training.
Last edited by mad_jock; 31st October 2008 at 12:11.
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 181
Likes: 0
From: cyberspace
The flight training industry is a big business.
There is a long line of people ranging from instructors, to the secretaries and admin staff at the flying schools, to the government workers, medical examiners, you name it, who are totally dependent on there being a constant supply of young dreamers with stars in their eyes.
I'ts a big business, and every wannabe who steps into the "sales office" (pardon, it's technically called the 'Admissions Office'" should be aware of this fact.
There is a long line of people ranging from instructors, to the secretaries and admin staff at the flying schools, to the government workers, medical examiners, you name it, who are totally dependent on there being a constant supply of young dreamers with stars in their eyes.
I'ts a big business, and every wannabe who steps into the "sales office" (pardon, it's technically called the 'Admissions Office'" should be aware of this fact.
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 181
Likes: 0
From: cyberspace
ok, all the Universities are a 'big business', all Music schools are a 'big business', even all Football schools are 'a big business', etc etc etc...That's life. What's your point?]
Some naive younglings, however, might think that because the flying school is a "school" quote unquote that they're going to get impartial advice. After all, "schools" are about unbiased truth, aren't they? Or that the industry will give them 'impartial' advice.
As mentioned, there's a long line of people from from the secretaries to gov't workers whose jobs are dependent on there being wannabees with stars in their eyes.
Joined: Aug 2008
Posts: 261
Likes: 0
From: between a rock and a hard place
Uni Students get all worked up because they finish their course with a £30 (ish) K debt yet wannabee pilots seem cool about a 100K debt.
The stakes are much higher for both the aviation student and school with multiple mortgages on aircraft, sims and premises rental costs. I dunno about giving potential students impartial advise, it would appear some of the larger schools are feeding these potentially nieve and vulnerable youngsters down right BS!
I suspect the wiser wannabees will have read parts of this thread then picked up a news paper (or watched BBC news) and changed their plans appropriately saving themselves a lot of money and heart ache. That's justification for this thread alone.
The stakes are much higher for both the aviation student and school with multiple mortgages on aircraft, sims and premises rental costs. I dunno about giving potential students impartial advise, it would appear some of the larger schools are feeding these potentially nieve and vulnerable youngsters down right BS!
I suspect the wiser wannabees will have read parts of this thread then picked up a news paper (or watched BBC news) and changed their plans appropriately saving themselves a lot of money and heart ache. That's justification for this thread alone.
Joined: Jun 2008
Posts: 2
Likes: 0
From: Ireland
I'm a wannabe who has been following this thread with great interest since it started and yes my plans have changed considerably in response to the current turmoil. I was initially planning to go the integrated route courtesy of my friendly neighbourhood bank manager but now plan to save as much as I can and go the modular route, paying as I go along, (funny how this time last year a 70k+ loan seemed like a sound investment but now seems more like insanity). Hopefully in 4-5 yrs when i'm the proud owner of a faptl things will start to look up in terms of recruitment. so thankyou to WWW, Heli-port,ChrisLKKB, spinnaker and everyone else who was shared their experience/advice and helped me make (hopefully) the right choices.
Joined: Feb 2008
Posts: 5
Likes: 0
From: Portugal
Got your point.
Uni Students finish the school, 30 k debt, get a job or not.
Aviation Student finish the school, 100 k debt, get a job or not.
Hold it right there. The risk is much higher for Aviation students. Thus the market offers higher wages to pilots on average.
The aviation industry is one of the least probitable industries in the market. It's kind of a 'cool' industry
. Nature of rivalry is intense and exclusive on price. Very hard to differentiate. Constant flow of new airlines into the game. You can simply lease a plane. All generic technology. You can simply start connection between two cities. Customer is very price-sensitive. Suppliers of aircraft and engines, and airport gates have a lot of bargaining power. They get most of the profit. There are always some substitutes like getting into the train, driving your car, shipping your goods by sea. Finally unionised labour (pilots in particular) can literally shut you down. I admire aviation industry managers.
But we love to fly.
WWW: do you agree?
Uni Students finish the school, 30 k debt, get a job or not.
Aviation Student finish the school, 100 k debt, get a job or not.
Hold it right there. The risk is much higher for Aviation students. Thus the market offers higher wages to pilots on average.
The aviation industry is one of the least probitable industries in the market. It's kind of a 'cool' industry
. Nature of rivalry is intense and exclusive on price. Very hard to differentiate. Constant flow of new airlines into the game. You can simply lease a plane. All generic technology. You can simply start connection between two cities. Customer is very price-sensitive. Suppliers of aircraft and engines, and airport gates have a lot of bargaining power. They get most of the profit. There are always some substitutes like getting into the train, driving your car, shipping your goods by sea. Finally unionised labour (pilots in particular) can literally shut you down. I admire aviation industry managers.But we love to fly.
WWW: do you agree?
Joined: May 2008
Posts: 346
Likes: 0
From: FL 350
Oil prices up after record falls
Oil prices rose almost 3% on Friday - but falling demand pushed crude to its biggest monthly drop in October
BBC NEWS | Business | Oil prices up after record falls
Joined: Jan 2008
Posts: 65
Likes: 0
From: UK
Thus the market offers higher wages to pilots on average.
The outlook doesn't compare favourably for pilots until at least Captaincy and possibly not even then. Example - my girlfriend, 30 years old, a graduate and a consultant with a well known international consultancy firm earning 75k per year (and she's blonde). Her job considerably safer then many pilots jobs at the moment. The big big money isn't until Long Haul Captain or Training Captain.
The fact of the matter is that Pilots are not amongst the highest earners and particularly when compared to the investment they have made. There will always be that steady supply of pilots who have placed aviation on a pedastal and are prepared to pay through the nose to follow their dreams. FTOs simply play on and manipulate this passion to assure their existence and keep the wheels of the "system" turning.
It takes the likes of WWW et al to keep wannabees in touch with reality.
NGB
Thread Starter
Joined: May 2004
Posts: 724
Likes: 24
From: UK
Your joking, right? It is a hell of a lot easier to pay back 30k worth of debt with a good graduate job then it is to pay back 80K (sometimes more) worth of debt as a very poorly paid First Officer.
It is very possible to service repayments of circa £1000 a month if you can quickly get into the RHS of a jet, unfreeze the ATPL (with associated payrise) and not have many other commitments.
If you have a mortgage and kids and/or can't get the first break on the other hand, life is more interesting.
Joined: Apr 2008
Posts: 25
Likes: 0
From: kxxx
I completed my MCC 5 months ago and took up a job as a driver for a big International organision,Driving the the top brass,i earn an equivalent of 3000 pounds per month take home first class health insuarance valid worlwide and very good pension plan,i only have to pick the boss from home take him to work,chill out half the day .reading newspapers,take him for the odd meeting then back at home at five.
Now i have spent thousands to get my flight training done,the first job that i can land here, the average salary would be an equivalent 2200 pounds i will have forked out tens of thousands to get typed no medical no pension plan and work like a dog,
Why do i do this? i want to achieve a life long dream,will i do this until i retire? no ways.
Now i have spent thousands to get my flight training done,the first job that i can land here, the average salary would be an equivalent 2200 pounds i will have forked out tens of thousands to get typed no medical no pension plan and work like a dog,
Why do i do this? i want to achieve a life long dream,will i do this until i retire? no ways.
Joined: Aug 2008
Posts: 261
Likes: 0
From: between a rock and a hard place
There is no monetary benefit in being a first officer these days, especially if you have to service a loan.
Even in this current climate a friend of mine is grossing in excess of 50K as a contract electician, and his job is a lot safer than most pilots out there as he works on projects for well capitalised companies. (And positions like these wont cost you 100K or even 30K, more like a few hundred and a couple of years day release while earning good money during the day as an electricians mate.)
There are plenty of well paid jobs out there for graduates if you choose your career path with your head and not your heart.
I suspect the reason that first officer positions are reasonably paid is more down to a pay structure driven by the unions either directly or indirectly (in order to compete with other companies) than any benevolence towards wannabees who've burried themselves with debt.
Even in this current climate a friend of mine is grossing in excess of 50K as a contract electician, and his job is a lot safer than most pilots out there as he works on projects for well capitalised companies. (And positions like these wont cost you 100K or even 30K, more like a few hundred and a couple of years day release while earning good money during the day as an electricians mate.)
There are plenty of well paid jobs out there for graduates if you choose your career path with your head and not your heart.
I suspect the reason that first officer positions are reasonably paid is more down to a pay structure driven by the unions either directly or indirectly (in order to compete with other companies) than any benevolence towards wannabees who've burried themselves with debt.
Joined: Feb 2008
Posts: 5
Likes: 0
From: Portugal
NGB,
I am not joking. I take your point, but you missed mine - 'on average'. I also did not specify between Captains, FO's or Training Captains. Or even between long-haul or short-haul. I do admit that this is just a poor guess based on the airline industry in my country.
(she is blonde) ok all of us have our own aspirations and (thank god) we are free to choose our future. If your assumption regarding the highest earners was correct then we would all take the job of your girlfriend and become consultants or the like. I do not wish to change the color of my hair of course by the way.
Food for thought, we can become airline pilots 1 1/2 years. To become an engineer we need to study at least 3 years, this of course without a MSc.
Yvla,
Sorry to say but your drviver job sounds a bit boring to me. I am sure it is great to you. I do understand why you want to achieve a life long dream. That is partly what life is all about.
I also do not think we need WWW to keep touch with reality; we could instead just put a message every time we log in on Pprune advising:
'Do not start training now and until the economy recovers from the present recession and dont tell us we have warn you signed; we will advise you when the economy is healthy again. signed ...'
We certainly need to ear the ideas of everyone (and WWW's 'moderation' in the first place.)
I am not joking. I take your point, but you missed mine - 'on average'. I also did not specify between Captains, FO's or Training Captains. Or even between long-haul or short-haul. I do admit that this is just a poor guess based on the airline industry in my country.
(she is blonde
) ok all of us have our own aspirations and (thank god) we are free to choose our future. If your assumption regarding the highest earners was correct then we would all take the job of your girlfriend and become consultants or the like. I do not wish to change the color of my hair of course by the way. Food for thought, we can become airline pilots 1 1/2 years. To become an engineer we need to study at least 3 years, this of course without a MSc.
Yvla,
Sorry to say but your drviver job sounds a bit boring to me. I am sure it is great to you. I do understand why you want to achieve a life long dream. That is partly what life is all about.
I also do not think we need WWW to keep touch with reality; we could instead just put a message every time we log in on Pprune advising:
'Do not start training now and until the economy recovers from the present recession and dont tell us we have warn you signed; we will advise you when the economy is healthy again. signed ...'
We certainly need to ear the ideas of everyone (and WWW's 'moderation' in the first place.)
Joined: Apr 2008
Posts: 92
Likes: 0
From: Socialist Republic of Europe
It is meaningless to compare pilots' pay with high-earning jobs unless that is what you would otherwise be likely to be doing. I know a couple of ex-electricians who are now flying because the work was so tedious, and I for one would not want to be a consultant, and few people get the opportunity.
Most people who leave university start on well under £20k. A lot work in bars, shops or menial office jobs in which their degrees are meaningless for months or even years. With 30k of debt and no obvious advancement that is a rather more difficult prospect than surviving on even a turboprop FO's salary, usually significantly more than £20k starting, knowing that experience does count and the pay will rise. I have not checked lately, but a little over two years after starting my first public-transport job I came into the top 5% of earnings in the UK. The fact that in the UK that is still difficult to live on is down to the government.
Most people who leave university start on well under £20k. A lot work in bars, shops or menial office jobs in which their degrees are meaningless for months or even years. With 30k of debt and no obvious advancement that is a rather more difficult prospect than surviving on even a turboprop FO's salary, usually significantly more than £20k starting, knowing that experience does count and the pay will rise. I have not checked lately, but a little over two years after starting my first public-transport job I came into the top 5% of earnings in the UK. The fact that in the UK that is still difficult to live on is down to the government.
Joined: May 2001
Posts: 10,804
Likes: 1
I don't think there is any doubt that pilots are reasonably paid in the grand scope of things.
But for a while I have seen the fact that the industry needs wannabies constantly ploughing money in.
The revenue would get a chunk taken out of it in VAT.
I can't imagine how many other tax payers wouldn't have a job if the flow stopped.
The UK aviation industry would be shafted and sluggish to respond to the market forces.
So I know its a bit heartless but wannabies getting shafted for 50-100k is how the system needs to be to allow the UK to remain flexible to market forces.
I am glad its not my money though.
But for a while I have seen the fact that the industry needs wannabies constantly ploughing money in.
The revenue would get a chunk taken out of it in VAT.
I can't imagine how many other tax payers wouldn't have a job if the flow stopped.
The UK aviation industry would be shafted and sluggish to respond to the market forces.
So I know its a bit heartless but wannabies getting shafted for 50-100k is how the system needs to be to allow the UK to remain flexible to market forces.
I am glad its not my money though.
