Growing Evidence That The Upturn Is Upon Us
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: The Desert but shortly to be HK!)
Age: 49
Posts: 474
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Alex you might have missed it but the events of last week we're an earth shattering reminder that the warm cosy bath the UK consumer has been floating in for the past 5 years isn't full of water.... it is full of sh*t.... and they aren't floating they are drowning.... lets see how that impacts sentiment... car sales etc have slumped in the last 2 weeks. Confidence must have taken a massive knock.
Perhaps offer some insight by telling us how businesses is trending at your organisation? any drop off in sales over the past couple of weeks?? you are at the forefront of training for ATPLs anyway (with arguably the best product on the market).
Perhaps offer some insight by telling us how businesses is trending at your organisation? any drop off in sales over the past couple of weeks?? you are at the forefront of training for ATPLs anyway (with arguably the best product on the market).
Join Date: Dec 1999
Location: UK
Posts: 1,608
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
We have reached the bottom of the finance-related headlines - now for the real impact on the high street and consumer businesses.
I would now expect the economy to rumble along in recession, not doing much that generates positve headlines until the end of 2009 / start of 2010.
I would now expect the economy to rumble along in recession, not doing much that generates positve headlines until the end of 2009 / start of 2010.
Its a minor anecdote but a relative is a car dealer and he just had the worst August+Sept trading since 1991. Sales were in single digits where they were in triple digits last year.
It could be a blip.
WWW
It could be a blip.
WWW
Join Date: May 1999
Location: Bristol, England
Age: 65
Posts: 1,806
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
No, I hadn't missed the bloodbath GSB, it would be difficult not to! I'm only reporting the actual figures, I'll leave it to someone else to explain them.
Car sales have been horribly down for some months now. I know the BMW dealers are all getting rid of their bigger demonstrators because they're losing £2K a month just sitting in the showroom. As far as training goes it seems to be unaffected as yet. Most of the top notch IR schools are booked for some months into the future. Modular groundschool is busy, particularly on the continent, I don't know about the integrated schools.
Car sales have been horribly down for some months now. I know the BMW dealers are all getting rid of their bigger demonstrators because they're losing £2K a month just sitting in the showroom. As far as training goes it seems to be unaffected as yet. Most of the top notch IR schools are booked for some months into the future. Modular groundschool is busy, particularly on the continent, I don't know about the integrated schools.
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: UK
Posts: 644
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
On the note of relatives, one of mine is involved in property development and during our chit chat over the weekend refered to some kind of trade insudtry gazette survey reaging new flat sales. According to him in only 4 new build flats have been sold in Birmingham between the 6 top estate agencies. That's less that 1:1 ratio, now I might have it wrong but he didn't look very impressed by the outlook especially with so many of his tennants asking for a rent reduction at the same time.
Times are hard but due to inner desperation for any ray of light we immediately jump unto the first thread of good news when it appears. There's nothing wrong with that but it does need to be looked upon against the general economic backdrop. The actors may come and go but the stage and it's backdrop will remain throughout. Let's not forget the bigger picture it's still an overall downward trend and in fact needs to be in order to shed the economic/lifestyle excesses of recent years. Gordon allowed it to happen but of course will only take the credit for his involvement in helping to save us all.
Times are hard but due to inner desperation for any ray of light we immediately jump unto the first thread of good news when it appears. There's nothing wrong with that but it does need to be looked upon against the general economic backdrop. The actors may come and go but the stage and it's backdrop will remain throughout. Let's not forget the bigger picture it's still an overall downward trend and in fact needs to be in order to shed the economic/lifestyle excesses of recent years. Gordon allowed it to happen but of course will only take the credit for his involvement in helping to save us all.
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: Scottish FIR
Posts: 344
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
From Robert Peston this morning about the conditions of the rescue deal:
1) Taxpayers are injecting £37bn of capital into just three banks, RBS, HBOS and Lloyds - with RBS and HBOS taking £31.5bn of that (this is nationalisation Jim, though perhaps not precisely as we know it);
That's a lot for the tax payer to stump up. Government has to borrow and add to already spiralling national debt. Tax will go up.
2) RBS and Lloyds TSB/HBOS have promised to the government that they'll maintain mortgage lending and small-business lending at 2007 levels - which is massively more than they are currently lending (this is hugely significant - given that a shortage of credit is to a large extent behind the economy's deceleration into recession levels);
Wasn't the massive lending that got us into this? ....and what if they don't maintain 2007 levels of lending? RBS LTSB and HBOS, although big in the UK, fairly small players on the global stage. What happens if other world banks don't come to the party, because there is no guarantee they will, and if they don't, I cant see how the rescue will work.
3) Lloyds TSB is paying less to buy HBOS than it originally announced, to reflect the disclosure that HBOS's problems are rather worse than it thought just a couple of weeks ago;
How does one failed bank take on another failed bank?
4) Barclays is raising £10bn from selling new shares and securities to private-sector investors, abandoning its dividend for the second half of this year, and taking other actions;
The only bit that makes sense to me.
---------------------------------------------
The rescue raises as many questions as it does answering existing ones
Stock markets have stabilised this morning, I would not call it a rebound. Look at HBOS, LTSB, RBS shares, all down significantly.
1) Taxpayers are injecting £37bn of capital into just three banks, RBS, HBOS and Lloyds - with RBS and HBOS taking £31.5bn of that (this is nationalisation Jim, though perhaps not precisely as we know it);
That's a lot for the tax payer to stump up. Government has to borrow and add to already spiralling national debt. Tax will go up.
2) RBS and Lloyds TSB/HBOS have promised to the government that they'll maintain mortgage lending and small-business lending at 2007 levels - which is massively more than they are currently lending (this is hugely significant - given that a shortage of credit is to a large extent behind the economy's deceleration into recession levels);
Wasn't the massive lending that got us into this? ....and what if they don't maintain 2007 levels of lending? RBS LTSB and HBOS, although big in the UK, fairly small players on the global stage. What happens if other world banks don't come to the party, because there is no guarantee they will, and if they don't, I cant see how the rescue will work.
3) Lloyds TSB is paying less to buy HBOS than it originally announced, to reflect the disclosure that HBOS's problems are rather worse than it thought just a couple of weeks ago;
How does one failed bank take on another failed bank?
4) Barclays is raising £10bn from selling new shares and securities to private-sector investors, abandoning its dividend for the second half of this year, and taking other actions;
The only bit that makes sense to me.
---------------------------------------------
The rescue raises as many questions as it does answering existing ones
Stock markets have stabilised this morning, I would not call it a rebound. Look at HBOS, LTSB, RBS shares, all down significantly.
Join Date: May 1999
Location: Bristol, England
Age: 65
Posts: 1,806
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
The Daily Mash (caution, language used on some of the pages may offend)
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: Just a bit lower than the point where the falling angel meets the rising ape
Posts: 213
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
This Just In!!
ROBERT PESTON TRANSFORMED INTO PURE ENERGY - The Daily Mash
Seriously though. I get your concern about point 2. I don't necessarily think it was the amount of lending that created the problem as such, rather who it was being lent to...
I'd be interested to see how the Barclays plan works. RBS tried to sort themselves out (albeit via different means) and fell flat on their arses.
As for point 1. Won't the Govt. be coining it in repayments from said banks if all goes well (for a given value of "well")? Although I have no doubt that some will see the chance to raise more tax in these troubling times as an opportunity not be sniffed at.
For my own part, I see this as an attempt to slow the fall, so the crash at the end isn't too great. i.e. salvageable bits as opposed to all out catastrophe.
And as ever, I am slightly dismayed at the extent to which a basically abstract idea can, when questioned, seriously affect things like the food on my plate and the roof over my head.
(btw, I'm learning LOTS about stuff I'd never thought I'd learn about, on this site. Thanks guys!
)
Seriously though. I get your concern about point 2. I don't necessarily think it was the amount of lending that created the problem as such, rather who it was being lent to...
I'd be interested to see how the Barclays plan works. RBS tried to sort themselves out (albeit via different means) and fell flat on their arses.
As for point 1. Won't the Govt. be coining it in repayments from said banks if all goes well (for a given value of "well")? Although I have no doubt that some will see the chance to raise more tax in these troubling times as an opportunity not be sniffed at.
For my own part, I see this as an attempt to slow the fall, so the crash at the end isn't too great. i.e. salvageable bits as opposed to all out catastrophe.
And as ever, I am slightly dismayed at the extent to which a basically abstract idea can, when questioned, seriously affect things like the food on my plate and the roof over my head.
(btw, I'm learning LOTS about stuff I'd never thought I'd learn about, on this site. Thanks guys!
)
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: Scottish FIR
Posts: 344
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
And as ever, I am slightly dismayed at the extent to which a basically abstract idea can, when questioned, seriously affect things like the food on my plate and the roof over my head.
(btw, I'm learning LOTS about stuff I'd never thought I'd learn about, on this site. Thanks guys!)
Its fine to stabilise the banks. Letting them go down en masse caused the Great Depression and that killed people so is well worth avoiding. I can get past the moral outrage of then banks having caused this because:
a) Grown ups borrowed the money without a gun to their head,
b) The money wasn't real when it was created and isn't real when its being destroyed now.
Excessive household debt suddenly started defaulting and caused a crisis for the banks issuing that debt. The banks have managed to pass on that debt to the Government. They in turn will pass it on to the taxpayers over time. In the end everyone who pays tax will pay for the excessive spending and lifestyle indulged in by their fellow citizens.
The modest living hard working will suffer to pay for the feckless the flash and the lazy. That is unfortunate and the whole political game is now all about ensuring there is no revolt about it. There probably won't be because 98% of people are pig ignorant about monetarism and economics because they've never been taught any and always had it portrayed to them as boring and complicated.
This is deliberate. The hamsters have to be kept on their debt wheels and economic ignorance is the easiest way of achieving this.
I think the 1990 - 1992 recessionary period is our best guide to what to expect in 2009/10. Who the AirEurope and DanAir will be this time is anyones guess..
WWW
PS House prices will hit bottom in April 2010 at £127,000 for the average house - put a note in your diary
a) Grown ups borrowed the money without a gun to their head,
b) The money wasn't real when it was created and isn't real when its being destroyed now.
Excessive household debt suddenly started defaulting and caused a crisis for the banks issuing that debt. The banks have managed to pass on that debt to the Government. They in turn will pass it on to the taxpayers over time. In the end everyone who pays tax will pay for the excessive spending and lifestyle indulged in by their fellow citizens.
The modest living hard working will suffer to pay for the feckless the flash and the lazy. That is unfortunate and the whole political game is now all about ensuring there is no revolt about it. There probably won't be because 98% of people are pig ignorant about monetarism and economics because they've never been taught any and always had it portrayed to them as boring and complicated.
This is deliberate. The hamsters have to be kept on their debt wheels and economic ignorance is the easiest way of achieving this.
I think the 1990 - 1992 recessionary period is our best guide to what to expect in 2009/10. Who the AirEurope and DanAir will be this time is anyones guess..
WWW
PS House prices will hit bottom in April 2010 at £127,000 for the average house - put a note in your diary
How are people thinking?
.Join Date: Dec 1999
Location: UK
Posts: 1,608
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Spinnaker - the value of the £5 is not simply credit, but backed by taxpayers or other institutions typically. See the below.
Fiat currency - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Fiat currency - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: Scottish FIR
Posts: 344
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
This is deliberate. The hamsters have to be kept on their debt wheels and economic ignorance is the easiest way of achieving this.
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: between a rock and a hard place
Posts: 261
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Where are all the big investors that bailed out early on in the crisis hoovering up all these cheap shares?
A complete melt down of the financial system has been averted for now at least and hopefully for my lifetime but the market reaction has been relatively luke warm considering the recent steep drops.
The bail out was necessary and has stopped things getting any worse and if it doesn't get in the bo
llocks again the financial system may repair itself (I hope), eventually. But I can't help thinking we are still in for tough times ahead.
The Great Depression wasn't a sudden total collapse, it started with a stock market crash in Oct 1929 which recovered to 70% of its original value 6 months later but the next 10 years were tough the world over. (source wikipedea).
A complete melt down of the financial system has been averted for now at least and hopefully for my lifetime but the market reaction has been relatively luke warm considering the recent steep drops.
The bail out was necessary and has stopped things getting any worse and if it doesn't get in the bo
llocks again the financial system may repair itself (I hope), eventually. But I can't help thinking we are still in for tough times ahead.The Great Depression wasn't a sudden total collapse, it started with a stock market crash in Oct 1929 which recovered to 70% of its original value 6 months later but the next 10 years were tough the world over. (source wikipedea).
Today was a dead cat bounce. And a modest one at that.
You loose 1,000 points one week and make 200 back the following Monday after £50bn of rescue and I end up more worried than I was last week. I call 3,500 for the FTSE within 6 months. All eyes now on the unemployment numbers after Christmas.
WWW
You loose 1,000 points one week and make 200 back the following Monday after £50bn of rescue and I end up more worried than I was last week. I call 3,500 for the FTSE within 6 months. All eyes now on the unemployment numbers after Christmas.
WWW
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: england
Posts: 613
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
But it is interesting to see who the 'winners' are. For example, TUI did the best today. OK, looking back 12 months the haven't exactly starred but...........
WWW, I hope you have a robust pension scheme, I do.
WWW, I hope you have a robust pension scheme, I do.