Growing Evidence That The Upturn Is Upon Us
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First you say:
Then you go:
Sorry to say so, but you start to sound like some old people running for president.
Last week oil standed at 144$.
Today it stands at 124$.
Oil is down, and the trend is expected to continue as the situation in the Middle-East seems to become positive, people are regaining confidence in the share-market and are starting to secure shares at very low cost.
The gas at the pump in the US is showing the first decreases in several years.
Oil stocks are greater than ever, the fact that the government refuses to open emergency supplies because there is no shortage and the fact that both presidential candidates now recognise that oil prices are fueled by speculation is having an effect on this.
Wannabe "I know it all" economists translating their on-the-job attitude onto this website will be proven wrong. I'd hate to sit on the right seat of an airliner next to such negative people.
In the U.S., we are already preparing for the biggest shortage of pilots in history around end 2009/ beginning 2010, after this short-lived slowdown.
Regional airlines will suffer alot and many will have to import cockpit workforce.
American flight schools are emptier than ever of domestic student pilots. Most schools that have been able to maintain student volumes are full of Asian students. Only 4% of students at Embry-Riddle, one of the most reknown schools in America, are domestic student pilots.
Oil prices are a sideshow to the main event that will cripple many airlines and see Wannabes on the dole. The main event is a Recession. The oil spike is but a factor in this.
It is relevant to consider the spike but it won't matter soon how cheap the tickets are or what the kerosene in the wings cost.
Welcome to 1990.
It is relevant to consider the spike but it won't matter soon how cheap the tickets are or what the kerosene in the wings cost.
Welcome to 1990.
US Light Sweet was $77 in the third week of July 2007 with all sorts of nightmare headlines about the prospect of $100 oil soon.
Today it stands at $124.
In what way is oil down exactly?
Today it stands at $124.
In what way is oil down exactly?
Last week oil standed at 144$.
Today it stands at 124$.
Oil is down, and the trend is expected to continue as the situation in the Middle-East seems to become positive, people are regaining confidence in the share-market and are starting to secure shares at very low cost.
The gas at the pump in the US is showing the first decreases in several years.
Oil stocks are greater than ever, the fact that the government refuses to open emergency supplies because there is no shortage and the fact that both presidential candidates now recognise that oil prices are fueled by speculation is having an effect on this.
Wannabe "I know it all" economists translating their on-the-job attitude onto this website will be proven wrong. I'd hate to sit on the right seat of an airliner next to such negative people.
In the U.S., we are already preparing for the biggest shortage of pilots in history around end 2009/ beginning 2010, after this short-lived slowdown.
Regional airlines will suffer alot and many will have to import cockpit workforce.
American flight schools are emptier than ever of domestic student pilots. Most schools that have been able to maintain student volumes are full of Asian students. Only 4% of students at Embry-Riddle, one of the most reknown schools in America, are domestic student pilots.
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One of world's biggest oil reserves found in Arctic
July 23 (Bloomberg) -- The Arctic may hold 90 billion barrels of oil, more than all the known reserves of Nigeria, Kazakhstan and Mexico combined, and enough to supply U.S. demand for 12 years, the U.S. Geological Survey said.
Will the oil market react?
I can see a strong decline to below 120$ later today if the mainstream media picks up the news and broadcasts it extensively.
It'll be an interesting day.
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As much as it maybe pains you to admit it, WWW, the price of oil is moving in the right direction. Since the end of June there has been a general decrease of nearly $25 a barrell. Off course, the price is still very high, and volatile, as the Iran missile incident proved. The global demand however, particularly in the US has dropped, perhaps the yanks have finally had a wake up call. As has the rest of the world by the looks of it. But in saying all this, it could off course all go horribly wrong yet!
But for the timebeing, my glass will always be 'half full'!
But for the timebeing, my glass will always be 'half full'!
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Down as in - was $146 / barrel - now $126 / barrel - I'm not sure about your maths but in my book that is DOWN!!!
It is not in any way fantastic, or mean that everything is now rosy and no airlines will struggle/go bust but please don't deny that (for the time being at least) the constant upward trend of fuel prices has reversed.
It is not in any way fantastic, or mean that everything is now rosy and no airlines will struggle/go bust but please don't deny that (for the time being at least) the constant upward trend of fuel prices has reversed.
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The real fact is this, the job market, particularly for new FATPL's is bloody terrible.
There's plenty of corporate and instructing jobs available out there.
It's when a wannabe expects to start on a B737/A320 that things may seem depressing. If an ab-initio is willing to compromise, he can find a job very easily.
Many bizjet operators are hiring, all you need to fork out is 15000€ for a Citation TR.
This is of course not an option for the guys who owe the bank astronomic amounts. They will need a high paying job right from the beginning to be able to pay back their loans.
Then there's plenty of jobs in Africa, but many ab-initio's find it too far from home. Sorry, but Africa is a paradise. Sunny and warm everyday, tax-free wages, cheap living. Being away from mommy and daddy can feel lonely sometimes, I understand, but whining kids don't belong in a cockpit.
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Big orange Q3 trading statement...
Stock trading down 6% today....
EASYJET
THIRD QUARTER INTERIM MANAGEMENT STATEMENT
Highlights:
* Total passenger numbers up by 16% with continued strong growth in Gatwick and
mainland Europe in particular
* Total revenue per seat grew by 12% to £46.36 compared to the same period last
year
* Total revenue up 32% driven by strong ancillary performance and the
strengthening Euro
* Revenue and costs excluding fuel performing to expectations and over 50% of
the expected full year fuel cost increase of £185 million has been offset
* Capacity growth reduced significantly for the Winter 2008 / 2009 to around 4%
to 6% with flexibility to scale back further
Three months ending June 30th 2008 June 30th 2007 Change %
Passengers (m) 1 11.5 9.9 16
Seats (m) 13.8 11.7 18
Load factor (%) 2 83.5 84.5 (1) ppt
Total revenue (£m) 3 641 487 32
Passenger revenue (£m) 3 538 441 22
Ancillary revenue (£m) 3 103 46 124
Including checked bag charge
Total revenue per seat (£) 46.36 41.46 12
Passenger revenue per seat (£) 38.91 37.58 4
Ancillary revenue per seat (£) 7.45 3.87 93
Including checked bag charge
Total revenue per passenger (£) 55.74 49.19 13
Average operating aircraft 154.1 126.6 22
ASKs (bn) 14.8 11.7 26
RPKs (bn) 12.6 9.9 27
Average sector length (km) 1,069 993 8
Commentary:
Third Quarter revenue and network performance
Passenger numbers grew 16% in the quarter to 11.5 million. The majority of the
growth was focused around London Gatwick, France, Italy and Spain. Total non-UK
originating passengers increased by 25% in the quarter and UK originating
passengers grew by 9%.
Despite the timing of Easter which has had the effect of diluting yields, total
revenue per seat continued to grow strongly, up 12% to £46.36 in the quarter,
with passenger revenue up by 4% per seat. Ancillary revenue grew by 93% in the
quarter to £7.45 per seat, mainly driven by the introduction of the checked bag
charge from 1st October 2007. The checked bag charge increased to £5 per bag at
the end of March. A significant proportion of easyJet's passenger revenues are
Euro denominated and unit revenues have benefited from the strengthening of the
Euro. Total revenue trends on a constant currency basis have also improved as
shown in the table below.
% change vs F '07 Q1 F'08 Q2 F '08 Q3 F'08
Total revenue per seat 1% 16% 12%
and at constant currency -1% 9% 5%
easyJet now operates 356 routes from 20 bases and revenue performance is
encouraging across the network. London, especially Gatwick, continues to perform
well with particular strength on the former GB Airways sectors and on routes to
France and Italy. Overall, the UK regional bases are delivering good results
particularly at Newcastle and in our Scottish bases. Performance at Belfast
remains challenging as capacity has increased in the market, however
encouragingly easyJet's loads are ahead of the competition on key overlapping
routes. France and Italy are delivering strong revenue per seat improvement.
Madrid remains challenging however there has been recent improvement in revenue
per seat and easyJet's load factors continue to be above those of its
competitors.
Network development
Network expansion continues to focus on primary centres such as Milan Malpensa
and Paris Charles de Gaulle. At Milan Malpensa easyJet has recently introduced
its 11th aircraft, increased capacity substantially and by December 2008 easyJet
will have 15 aircraft based there.
Overall, capacity growth for the Winter 2008 / 2009 has been reduced and is
currently planned to be in the region of 4% to 6%. Flying at less profitable
times has been thinned and easyJet will reallocate capacity from weaker
performing bases towards higher value opportunities including Gatwick, France
and Italy. At Stansted, capacity will be reduced by 12% this winter and at the
beginning of June easyJet announced that the future of its base at Dortmund is
under review. In the current environment flexibility is vital and easyJet
continues to review its schedule and may make further adjustments both to
eliminate unprofitable flying and to seize any opportunities that may arise as
capacity exits the market.
Outlook
easyJet's underlying business continues to perform well and in line with
expectations. Second half total revenue per seat is expected to show mid teens
growth compared to the same period last year. Costs ex fuel, have in the second
half been under pressure from increased airport charges not least at Gatwick, a
decision easyJet is challenging through a judicial review process. easyJet will
continue to be relentless in its approach; reducing cost and increasing
efficiency.
Due to the rise in the oil price, easyJet's fuel costs have increased by around
£185 million for the full year and naturally this will drive a reduction in
margins. However, easyJet has offset over 50% of the increase in fuel through
revenue and cost performance and will deliver pre-tax profit before one-off
costs in the range of £110 million to £120 million, assuming an average
un-hedged fuel price of $1,280 per metric tonne for the second half of the
financial year. GB Airways is now integrated into easyJet's operating model and
one-off integration costs remain in line with the original guidance of £12
million.
Winter 2008 / 2009 will be challenging for the whole airline sector due to
higher fuel costs. easyJet currently has 28% of its 2009 fuel requirement hedged
at an average price of $1,265 per metric tonne.
EASYJET
THIRD QUARTER INTERIM MANAGEMENT STATEMENT
Highlights:
* Total passenger numbers up by 16% with continued strong growth in Gatwick and
mainland Europe in particular
* Total revenue per seat grew by 12% to £46.36 compared to the same period last
year
* Total revenue up 32% driven by strong ancillary performance and the
strengthening Euro
* Revenue and costs excluding fuel performing to expectations and over 50% of
the expected full year fuel cost increase of £185 million has been offset
* Capacity growth reduced significantly for the Winter 2008 / 2009 to around 4%
to 6% with flexibility to scale back further
Three months ending June 30th 2008 June 30th 2007 Change %
Passengers (m) 1 11.5 9.9 16
Seats (m) 13.8 11.7 18
Load factor (%) 2 83.5 84.5 (1) ppt
Total revenue (£m) 3 641 487 32
Passenger revenue (£m) 3 538 441 22
Ancillary revenue (£m) 3 103 46 124
Including checked bag charge
Total revenue per seat (£) 46.36 41.46 12
Passenger revenue per seat (£) 38.91 37.58 4
Ancillary revenue per seat (£) 7.45 3.87 93
Including checked bag charge
Total revenue per passenger (£) 55.74 49.19 13
Average operating aircraft 154.1 126.6 22
ASKs (bn) 14.8 11.7 26
RPKs (bn) 12.6 9.9 27
Average sector length (km) 1,069 993 8
Commentary:
Third Quarter revenue and network performance
Passenger numbers grew 16% in the quarter to 11.5 million. The majority of the
growth was focused around London Gatwick, France, Italy and Spain. Total non-UK
originating passengers increased by 25% in the quarter and UK originating
passengers grew by 9%.
Despite the timing of Easter which has had the effect of diluting yields, total
revenue per seat continued to grow strongly, up 12% to £46.36 in the quarter,
with passenger revenue up by 4% per seat. Ancillary revenue grew by 93% in the
quarter to £7.45 per seat, mainly driven by the introduction of the checked bag
charge from 1st October 2007. The checked bag charge increased to £5 per bag at
the end of March. A significant proportion of easyJet's passenger revenues are
Euro denominated and unit revenues have benefited from the strengthening of the
Euro. Total revenue trends on a constant currency basis have also improved as
shown in the table below.
% change vs F '07 Q1 F'08 Q2 F '08 Q3 F'08
Total revenue per seat 1% 16% 12%
and at constant currency -1% 9% 5%
easyJet now operates 356 routes from 20 bases and revenue performance is
encouraging across the network. London, especially Gatwick, continues to perform
well with particular strength on the former GB Airways sectors and on routes to
France and Italy. Overall, the UK regional bases are delivering good results
particularly at Newcastle and in our Scottish bases. Performance at Belfast
remains challenging as capacity has increased in the market, however
encouragingly easyJet's loads are ahead of the competition on key overlapping
routes. France and Italy are delivering strong revenue per seat improvement.
Madrid remains challenging however there has been recent improvement in revenue
per seat and easyJet's load factors continue to be above those of its
competitors.
Network development
Network expansion continues to focus on primary centres such as Milan Malpensa
and Paris Charles de Gaulle. At Milan Malpensa easyJet has recently introduced
its 11th aircraft, increased capacity substantially and by December 2008 easyJet
will have 15 aircraft based there.
Overall, capacity growth for the Winter 2008 / 2009 has been reduced and is
currently planned to be in the region of 4% to 6%. Flying at less profitable
times has been thinned and easyJet will reallocate capacity from weaker
performing bases towards higher value opportunities including Gatwick, France
and Italy. At Stansted, capacity will be reduced by 12% this winter and at the
beginning of June easyJet announced that the future of its base at Dortmund is
under review. In the current environment flexibility is vital and easyJet
continues to review its schedule and may make further adjustments both to
eliminate unprofitable flying and to seize any opportunities that may arise as
capacity exits the market.
Outlook
easyJet's underlying business continues to perform well and in line with
expectations. Second half total revenue per seat is expected to show mid teens
growth compared to the same period last year. Costs ex fuel, have in the second
half been under pressure from increased airport charges not least at Gatwick, a
decision easyJet is challenging through a judicial review process. easyJet will
continue to be relentless in its approach; reducing cost and increasing
efficiency.
Due to the rise in the oil price, easyJet's fuel costs have increased by around
£185 million for the full year and naturally this will drive a reduction in
margins. However, easyJet has offset over 50% of the increase in fuel through
revenue and cost performance and will deliver pre-tax profit before one-off
costs in the range of £110 million to £120 million, assuming an average
un-hedged fuel price of $1,280 per metric tonne for the second half of the
financial year. GB Airways is now integrated into easyJet's operating model and
one-off integration costs remain in line with the original guidance of £12
million.
Winter 2008 / 2009 will be challenging for the whole airline sector due to
higher fuel costs. easyJet currently has 28% of its 2009 fuel requirement hedged
at an average price of $1,265 per metric tonne.
UK retail sales figures out today for June are the worst ever recorded.
US house prices are falling harder than in the Great Depression.
Oil is nearly twice what it was a year ago.
Stock markets are in Bear Markets.
Unemployment is rocketing.
I could go tediously on. We have a house price crash. We have a recession. We will therefore have a number of airline busts come Autumn/Winter and for Wannabes this will be a dire crisis far deeper than the Sept11th 2001 event.
That's in stone.
WWW
US house prices are falling harder than in the Great Depression.
Oil is nearly twice what it was a year ago.
Stock markets are in Bear Markets.
Unemployment is rocketing.
I could go tediously on. We have a house price crash. We have a recession. We will therefore have a number of airline busts come Autumn/Winter and for Wannabes this will be a dire crisis far deeper than the Sept11th 2001 event.
That's in stone.
WWW
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www - you didn't ever work for the Daily Mail did you?
Your statements above - while possibly true in some cases do need a little balance.
Since records began - in 1986
Debateable - although the fact that we still are in an inflationary economy and during the Great Depression there was de-flation due to the appaling finacial position then this can be made to appear that in 'real terms' the US housing market is falling faster than it was in 1931
Nearly twice - well $77 * 1.65 = $124
As they have been for about 4 years
Unemployment has shown a steady rise althouh employment is also up at record levels.
You do go tediously on!!! 
What you have stated in your last paragraph may well be very well thoughtout opinion but it is not 'In Stone'
I am not doubting that things are not fantastic and that any Wannabe would be a complete fool to mortgage his parents house to get himself into 20 years debt on the off chance of a job - but please, can we not devalue this argument by having a) A list of tabloid style doom and gloom 'headlines' without the 'facts' being fully substantiated and B) Every time someone states something that does not support ones argument - don't immediatly dismiss anything said - it is not constructive and just looks petty!
Your statements above - while possibly true in some cases do need a little balance.
UK retail sales figures out today for June are the worst ever recorded.
US house prices are falling harder than in the Great Depression.
Oil is nearly twice what it was a year ago.
Stock markets are in Bear Markets.
Unemployment is rocketing.
I could go tediously on. We have a house price crash. We have a recession. We will therefore have a number of airline busts come Autumn/Winter and for Wannabes this will be a dire crisis far deeper than the Sept11th 2001 event.
That's in stone.
That's in stone.
What you have stated in your last paragraph may well be very well thoughtout opinion but it is not 'In Stone'I am not doubting that things are not fantastic and that any Wannabe would be a complete fool to mortgage his parents house to get himself into 20 years debt on the off chance of a job - but please, can we not devalue this argument by having a) A list of tabloid style doom and gloom 'headlines' without the 'facts' being fully substantiated and B) Every time someone states something that does not support ones argument - don't immediatly dismiss anything said - it is not constructive and just looks petty!
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Can we all quote some cherry-picked economic statistics?
Bank of America's shares up 7pc after better-than-expected results, with Citigroup and Wachovia up 2.5pc and 4.55pc respectively off the back of this. So the banking crisis isn't all it was supposed to be.
Gold futures (expert judgement of what will happen to the haven in a tempest) down $23.30 at $925.20 per ounce.
The dollar has risen against the Euro, 0.6379 up from 0.6336 a couple of days ago. Up to more then £0.50 against sterling.
Crude prices have dropped by about 15% from their peak. More importantly serious men are now starting to mention the word "bubble", previously only seen in right-wing websites. Stockpiling is therefore a lot less likely, and upward pressure is likely to be relieved.
What effect will these have on the aviation industry? Except for the last one, which if it continues is bound to improve things compare continued artificial inflation of oil prices, we don't know, and moreover the effect will be different in different parts of the world. This is an international site for an international industry.
Having said all that I would not recommend anyone to start training now simply for the career. If you love the flying it is worth starting up, maybe part time to be ready in 3 or 4 years. Oh, and don't buy shares in companies offering integrated courses!
Bank of America's shares up 7pc after better-than-expected results, with Citigroup and Wachovia up 2.5pc and 4.55pc respectively off the back of this. So the banking crisis isn't all it was supposed to be.
Gold futures (expert judgement of what will happen to the haven in a tempest) down $23.30 at $925.20 per ounce.
The dollar has risen against the Euro, 0.6379 up from 0.6336 a couple of days ago. Up to more then £0.50 against sterling.
Crude prices have dropped by about 15% from their peak. More importantly serious men are now starting to mention the word "bubble", previously only seen in right-wing websites. Stockpiling is therefore a lot less likely, and upward pressure is likely to be relieved.
What effect will these have on the aviation industry? Except for the last one, which if it continues is bound to improve things compare continued artificial inflation of oil prices, we don't know, and moreover the effect will be different in different parts of the world. This is an international site for an international industry.
Having said all that I would not recommend anyone to start training now simply for the career. If you love the flying it is worth starting up, maybe part time to be ready in 3 or 4 years. Oh, and don't buy shares in companies offering integrated courses!
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www,
Once again, your are making sweeping generalised statements. UK house prices are not falling as you say. In England perhaps, in the rest of the UK, no. Here in Scotland(yes, we are part of the uk!), house prices remain strong, and continue to increase at a steady rate. The grossly over inflated English market is undoubtedly getting its come uppings but dont tarn us all with the same brush.
As for unemployment, I really wonder which figures you loook at at times. According to every page i've just looked at, unemployment figures issued this month are down 0.2 % in comparison to this time last year. I dont get your 'rocketing' figures at all im afraid. But then again, you are the self appointed prophet of doom.
Whilst im not in denial that the economy is a downturn, there is a balance to strike between fact and that of the gutter trash media hipe that we seem to be subjected to every day.
Once again, your are making sweeping generalised statements. UK house prices are not falling as you say. In England perhaps, in the rest of the UK, no. Here in Scotland(yes, we are part of the uk!), house prices remain strong, and continue to increase at a steady rate. The grossly over inflated English market is undoubtedly getting its come uppings but dont tarn us all with the same brush.
As for unemployment, I really wonder which figures you loook at at times. According to every page i've just looked at, unemployment figures issued this month are down 0.2 % in comparison to this time last year. I dont get your 'rocketing' figures at all im afraid. But then again, you are the self appointed prophet of doom.
Whilst im not in denial that the economy is a downturn, there is a balance to strike between fact and that of the gutter trash media hipe that we seem to be subjected to every day.
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It's clear that interest rates will now fall so thats good news for those wanting to borrow money to finance things like pilot training
It's possible to get some good bargains at times like this - no point in buying at the top of the market
As oil falls in price it wil make flying seem affordable again and may save the airlines who are struggling. Its likely that Easyjet will now do better than those predicting oil rises to 200 dolllars might have expected. Good news for flight crew in that airline! ANOTHER 1.5% fall today aone. I may get that SUV after all
There is a lot of oil in the arctic now available - it is now more accessible because the ice is melting
FTSE rocketed yesterday although some profit taking today - cant go up everyday I suppose
Oh the IMF have revise our positive growth figures in the UK up and so there is no recession on the horizon - they are economiste we are just pilots
It's possible to get some good bargains at times like this - no point in buying at the top of the market
As oil falls in price it wil make flying seem affordable again and may save the airlines who are struggling. Its likely that Easyjet will now do better than those predicting oil rises to 200 dolllars might have expected. Good news for flight crew in that airline! ANOTHER 1.5% fall today aone. I may get that SUV after all
There is a lot of oil in the arctic now available - it is now more accessible because the ice is melting
FTSE rocketed yesterday although some profit taking today - cant go up everyday I suppose
Oh the IMF have revise our positive growth figures in the UK up and so there is no recession on the horizon - they are economiste we are just pilots
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Have you people such short memories...? Only last week the biggest denier and cheerleader for talking up the economy was forced to admit that the economic outlook was "more profound" than at first thought. This decline of oil price is a temporary glitch as speculators push it further down to make ever more money by taking a 'short' position. This will be followed by a thrust upwards when they revert to a 'long' position. It's all part of the bigger picture ... we are not in control but entrapped amongst this economic ghost train.
To simply start talking about pusuing a loan is very reckless at this stage of the game. Even if that is your desired course of action then just give it a few more months to calm down. Watch the industry and see how they react to all the economic data and news, maybe they've been spooked and won't be so willing to take on newbies for the foreseeable future. Couple this to the more global accessibility of employees and new working practices/agreements. Perhaps in the mid term you might be tempted to think somewhat differently about where you'll work, for whom and under what terms. Who knows maybe the flexible contractor setting would be all the rage for the coming years with a few senior captains as permanent staff.
I understand and empathise with you all but please stop trying to be the first galloping white knight into battle. Just don't fall over in this game, it's hard enough to keep going but a bad or untimely decision could have significant ramifications for the rest of your training/career. Look at all the Ryanair wannabes, flying perhaps a maximum of 500 hrs whilst living wherever they send you and paying back your mountainous debts. It's not cool when working is just breaking even and you really have no reserves. I accept it works for some but all I'm saying is be careful chaps and chapesses
Other than that be cool .... 
(the wife's starting to have moan might need to dash her off to the hospital for baby No. 2 and last one)
To simply start talking about pusuing a loan is very reckless at this stage of the game. Even if that is your desired course of action then just give it a few more months to calm down. Watch the industry and see how they react to all the economic data and news, maybe they've been spooked and won't be so willing to take on newbies for the foreseeable future. Couple this to the more global accessibility of employees and new working practices/agreements. Perhaps in the mid term you might be tempted to think somewhat differently about where you'll work, for whom and under what terms. Who knows maybe the flexible contractor setting would be all the rage for the coming years with a few senior captains as permanent staff.
I understand and empathise with you all but please stop trying to be the first galloping white knight into battle. Just don't fall over in this game, it's hard enough to keep going but a bad or untimely decision could have significant ramifications for the rest of your training/career. Look at all the Ryanair wannabes, flying perhaps a maximum of 500 hrs whilst living wherever they send you and paying back your mountainous debts. It's not cool when working is just breaking even and you really have no reserves. I accept it works for some but all I'm saying is be careful chaps and chapesses
Other than that be cool .... (the wife's starting to have moan might need to dash her off to the hospital for baby No. 2 and last one
)
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boogie-nicey,
I dont think any of us are looking through rose tinted glasses. I dont think any of us are even denying that theres a downturn. I think we are however providing the flipside to the likes of www's constant one sided ramblings and desire to rid the world of wannabees. Training is still affordable and provided people are sensible about it, why shouldnt they train? I did my fatpl for 30k, its perfectly achievable.
I dont think any of us are looking through rose tinted glasses. I dont think any of us are even denying that theres a downturn. I think we are however providing the flipside to the likes of www's constant one sided ramblings and desire to rid the world of wannabees. Training is still affordable and provided people are sensible about it, why shouldnt they train? I did my fatpl for 30k, its perfectly achievable.
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Well.........
Instead of all us Monday Morning Economists (Who lets face it - none of us have got a clue [even those who think they do]) trying to decide whether its a good idea to train or not. Lets leave it the financial experts (i.e. the people who's money we are trying to borrow for training) shall we?
1. Anybody who has approached HSBC for a 30k unsecured loan for a modular fATPL in the last month please shout the outcome here.
2. Anybody who has approached HSBC for a 60K secured loan for a integrated fATPL in the last month please shout the outcome here.
I'm more than happy to be proved wrong based on FACT, but if HSBC thinks its a bad idea to train now - who are we to argue.
And as to those shouting great things at oil being $124 per barrel, then please give it a rest....that level is UNSUSTAINABLE for a whole load of airlines, its just that $145 is even more UNSUSTAINABLE for a whole load of airlines. Anything over $100 means the airlines are operating (the actual aircraft) for NO PROFIT and they might as well send the airbuses & boeings back and put the capital employed in a Post Office high interest account.....
Lets face it demand is huge and it only takes a missile test east of Dubai to send the cost soaring again
Personally I think this thread is irresponsible (Thats my opinion, one that I'm perfectly entitled to) because there is no EVIDENCE that the upturn is upon us or even that the downturn has finished yet.
Just takes one Major or large regional anywhere in the EU to make redundancies or go under and wannabees in training will be up the creek.
Topslide - thankyou for probably the most balanced words currently printed on both threads. A very close family member of mine is a very senior FO for a bucket and spade charter company and has found himself checking his seniority number every other day...
Instead of all us Monday Morning Economists (Who lets face it - none of us have got a clue [even those who think they do]) trying to decide whether its a good idea to train or not. Lets leave it the financial experts (i.e. the people who's money we are trying to borrow for training) shall we?
1. Anybody who has approached HSBC for a 30k unsecured loan for a modular fATPL in the last month please shout the outcome here.
2. Anybody who has approached HSBC for a 60K secured loan for a integrated fATPL in the last month please shout the outcome here.
I'm more than happy to be proved wrong based on FACT, but if HSBC thinks its a bad idea to train now - who are we to argue.
And as to those shouting great things at oil being $124 per barrel, then please give it a rest....that level is UNSUSTAINABLE for a whole load of airlines, its just that $145 is even more UNSUSTAINABLE for a whole load of airlines. Anything over $100 means the airlines are operating (the actual aircraft) for NO PROFIT and they might as well send the airbuses & boeings back and put the capital employed in a Post Office high interest account.....
Lets face it demand is huge and it only takes a missile test east of Dubai to send the cost soaring again
Personally I think this thread is irresponsible (Thats my opinion, one that I'm perfectly entitled to) because there is no EVIDENCE that the upturn is upon us or even that the downturn has finished yet.
Just takes one Major or large regional anywhere in the EU to make redundancies or go under and wannabees in training will be up the creek.
Topslide - thankyou for probably the most balanced words currently printed on both threads. A very close family member of mine is a very senior FO for a bucket and spade charter company and has found himself checking his seniority number every other day...
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topslide,
Yet again, the world doesnt exist beyond the UK with this thread does it. You are referring to purely uk based jet jobs. What about Turboprop and corporate/biz jobs(booming just now)? What about looking for opportunities overseas? It always comes back to the same old attitude of theres nothing else with wings other than an airbus or 737. Im not advocating that people go out and borrow 100k, im suggesting(and always have done) that an atpl is perfectly achievable for much less, provided people are sensible. There are still opportunities out there and the point of this thread should be to encourage people to look at cheaper alternatives, not hammer them down and tell them to forget about being a pilot its pointless...the world ends tmrw...blah blah!
Yet again, the world doesnt exist beyond the UK with this thread does it. You are referring to purely uk based jet jobs. What about Turboprop and corporate/biz jobs(booming just now)? What about looking for opportunities overseas? It always comes back to the same old attitude of theres nothing else with wings other than an airbus or 737. Im not advocating that people go out and borrow 100k, im suggesting(and always have done) that an atpl is perfectly achievable for much less, provided people are sensible. There are still opportunities out there and the point of this thread should be to encourage people to look at cheaper alternatives, not hammer them down and tell them to forget about being a pilot its pointless...the world ends tmrw...blah blah!
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You HAVE to bear in mind that the Frozen ATPL at Oxford is in excess of £80,000 with accomodation included.
There's plenty of schools that will train you for half that money.
If you train for 40k, a 20k job can be good enough.
If you pay 80k for training, you'll have to look for a job paying at least 30K if you don't want to live with mommy & daddy... but you can forget it: no airline pays its ab-initio's more than 20K.
With interests costs where they are, you'll loose 1000£ a month over 10 years... which is of course a stupid investment.
By going to Oxford YOU have decided to put yourself in that situation, you can not blame the economy.
Buying high cost flight training while you can't afford it is no better than buying a house you can barely afford to buy and to face foreclosure when interest rates go up and you can't afford to repay your mortgage anymore.
Many major airlines are not recruiting, but why does your first job have to be in one of the major airlines?
Plenty of corporate jobs out there, try this: Search Air Charter Operators
Don't hesitate to call operators.
The situation of the ab-initio market is stable now. It scares the sh*t out of me everytime I hear that a 200 hour ab-initio is starting on the A320/B737. Airlines do that only when they are desperate.
Last edited by nich-av; 24th Jul 2008 at 18:54.
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You really dont get me do you topslide. My purpose of posting is not to tell people one way or another whether to train or not(WWW does that perfectly well by himself!), i couldnt give a damn what they do personally. My point is to highlight that training costs are perfectly achievable on a budget and that as it stands(at the moment), there are still opportunities out there to be had. If the world go's tit*s up then so be it. Nobody knows what way its going to go, least of all me, you or www. And I have never been a fan of the integtrated monster machines that rip people off of 100k, and sstr's etc, i think its absolutely horrendous they can get away with it.
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MikeCR
Bizjets is my particular corner of the industry and to be honest I can safely say that only 6 months ago it was absolutely buzzing with Jobs even for 200 hr ex cadets (No opinion either way but very unusual in bizjets) with good positions being fairly plentiful.
Right now its crap..... Nobody dares move even for more money, it just seems everybody has gone into hedgehog mode.
Flight International last year probably had a couple of pages for GA/Corporate jobs each and every week...now maybe one or two individual ads for the ME and Africa - feel free
Spoke to a very good freind yesterday who reckons his charter outfit is going to make a huge loss this year because of the last three months 9 months hard work for nothing.....Its like somebody has flicked a switch at the moment. Hopefully it will recover
Bizjets is my particular corner of the industry and to be honest I can safely say that only 6 months ago it was absolutely buzzing with Jobs even for 200 hr ex cadets (No opinion either way but very unusual in bizjets) with good positions being fairly plentiful.
Right now its crap..... Nobody dares move even for more money, it just seems everybody has gone into hedgehog mode.
Flight International last year probably had a couple of pages for GA/Corporate jobs each and every week...now maybe one or two individual ads for the ME and Africa - feel free
Spoke to a very good freind yesterday who reckons his charter outfit is going to make a huge loss this year because of the last three months 9 months hard work for nothing.....Its like somebody has flicked a switch at the moment. Hopefully it will recover
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Jet2 hasn't stopped recruiting at all.
Profits of £11.8m announced today with loads up 30%, share price rising 33% and fuel hedged to winter 09. Royal mail contract until 2010. Happy times
Profits of £11.8m announced today with loads up 30%, share price rising 33% and fuel hedged to winter 09. Royal mail contract until 2010. Happy times
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It's the giving impressionable people false hope I don't like. For what it's worth, it wasn't you I was referring to as a moron. It's in response to post right back at the beginning.