Growing Evidence That The Upturn Is Upon Us
Join Date: May 2008
Location: FL 350
Posts: 346
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
except this wont be a perfect cycle will it, the next trough will be deeper than in 96.
Low sales drive house prices down
UK house prices continued falling in October and are now nearly 15% lower than a year ago, says the Nationwide.
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: Just a bit lower than the point where the falling angel meets the rising ape
Posts: 213
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
On the subject of perfect cycles...
I'm looking at the house-price graph since the 70's and trying to eyeball when prices might stop going down and then start to rise again, based on the expanding peaks and troughs of previous decades.
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: Scottish FIR
Posts: 344
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
JohnRayner "I'm looking at the house-price graph since the 70's and trying to eyeball when prices might stop going down and then start to rise again, based on the expanding peaks and troughs of previous decades."
I presume you want to buy, rather than an academic or speculative exercise. Historical data might not give the accuracy to predict the actual bottom this time around. However, real time data might be good enough as I feel there will be a significant period of prices bumping along the bottom and should be identifiable. Most observers seem to go along with a price drop from the peak of 35% to reach the bottom.
One of the pieces of data missing from the negative equity calculations is the 'Rent Back' deals that an increasing number of home-owners have entered into.
I presume you want to buy, rather than an academic or speculative exercise. Historical data might not give the accuracy to predict the actual bottom this time around. However, real time data might be good enough as I feel there will be a significant period of prices bumping along the bottom and should be identifiable. Most observers seem to go along with a price drop from the peak of 35% to reach the bottom.
One of the pieces of data missing from the negative equity calculations is the 'Rent Back' deals that an increasing number of home-owners have entered into.
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: Scottish FIR
Posts: 344
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Originally Posted by ChrisLKKB
IMO cycles are a bit like a VSI, great for determining a trend but they only tell you the details once they've happened.
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: UK
Posts: 65
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
CTC Grads Laid off by EJ
From the "horses mouth" : Easyjet have laid off a batch of CTC Wings Cadets.
These guys and girls finished their CTC wings course a while ago and were taken on by EJ on the standard 6 month contract that they offer to CTC Wings graduates. Well that 6 months is up and EJ have said thanks but no thanks until at least April next year, and possibly never. Nice timing as they have just started to pay back their 75k HSBC loans. Ouch.
Another mate, with BA since finishing CTC, is now just flying on average 5 days per month! His sector pay was paying back the loan. Not now.
These are hard times and they are going to get much worse. If you can, delay as much as humanly possible.
These guys and girls finished their CTC wings course a while ago and were taken on by EJ on the standard 6 month contract that they offer to CTC Wings graduates. Well that 6 months is up and EJ have said thanks but no thanks until at least April next year, and possibly never. Nice timing as they have just started to pay back their 75k HSBC loans. Ouch.
Another mate, with BA since finishing CTC, is now just flying on average 5 days per month! His sector pay was paying back the loan. Not now.
These are hard times and they are going to get much worse. If you can, delay as much as humanly possible.
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: UK, Paris, Peckham, New York
Posts: 23
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
plan b to all wannabes...
was shocked today...i work 7 days a week, mon-fri in office and weekends in a warehouse to pay for the ATPL, i have been sent on a forkflift course this week.
Day one instuctor turns up in BMW M5. Day 2 he turns up in Porsche GT3. little investigating online and forklift instructors charge £300 per day!! (both days we have worked 8-2, day 1 we watched an hour of videos and spent 2hours talking about holidays, hardly work for him!!)
Only costs £1500 quid to be an instructor, think that is my new plan b!!!
Day one instuctor turns up in BMW M5. Day 2 he turns up in Porsche GT3. little investigating online and forklift instructors charge £300 per day!! (both days we have worked 8-2, day 1 we watched an hour of videos and spent 2hours talking about holidays, hardly work for him!!)
Only costs £1500 quid to be an instructor, think that is my new plan b!!!
Nearly all wannabes will be on the dole for years.
Those are the facts.
Despair.
WWW
Those are the facts.
Despair.
WWW
hit!
15% above average wage doesn't go far when you have £80,000 of unsecured debt to service and repay. Especially if you have to live anywhere within choking distance of Londinium.
Things are unremittingly, totally, crap for Wannabes. A glum face and a rain cloud would be entirely appropriate. Were I a Wannabe instead of having >10k hrs..
Who is telling Wannabes that they are wasting their time, money and dreams for the next few years? Is it the magazines? Is it the schools? Is it the employers? Is it the government? Is it other Wannabes? Is it the pilot community? Is it BALPA? No. Its just me and a few others on PPRuNe.
WWW
Things are unremittingly, totally, crap for Wannabes. A glum face and a rain cloud would be entirely appropriate. Were I a Wannabe instead of having >10k hrs..
Who is telling Wannabes that they are wasting their time, money and dreams for the next few years? Is it the magazines? Is it the schools? Is it the employers? Is it the government? Is it other Wannabes? Is it the pilot community? Is it BALPA? No. Its just me and a few others on PPRuNe.
WWW
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: UK
Posts: 65
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Another mate, with BA since finishing CTC, is now just flying on average 5 days per month! Yet is still earning his £28000 basic salary. My heart bleeds.
Would you really want to have the same debt and very similiar rent if you landed a job with FlyBe post CTC? 23K per year and the same circumstances would make life very difficult.
For God's sake. Do it, do the training, but stay DEBT FREE during the process and don't expect to get employed until 2011 at the earliest. Modular never looked so good.
Cheers, NGB
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: Surrey
Posts: 25
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Nearly all wannabes will be on the dole for years.
Those are the facts.
Despair.
WWW
Those are the facts.
Despair.
WWW
These people are feeling pretty sick at the moment remember how excited you were when you embarked on your training and the thought of becoming a pilot. I know that these people feel sick enough as it is about the dim prospects and the thought of shattered dreams without having their noses rubbed in it.
Maybe you are aiming your comments at the stupid wreckless people that are going to embark on training regardless of you warnings, but surely there are very few of these now and they are fully informed as to the risks. For those who have the money to blow regardless then good luck to them, they know what the deal is now.
To be quite frank I expect more from a moderator.
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: Antarctica
Age: 46
Posts: 12
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
WWW's manner is directly proportional to the state of affairs for wannabes. At first he sugar coated most opinions, but he's been saying it for so long with people still arguing his opinions he just says it as it is, which can be painfully blunt if you're one of the people he's talking about!
I'm going to wait a while before embarking on my training. I'm still doing a PPL as soon as I can, and then waiting the long wait.
I'm going to wait a while before embarking on my training. I'm still doing a PPL as soon as I can, and then waiting the long wait.
the flying schools are as busy as they ever were...
I'm not gloating. I'm scared.
WWW
I'm not gloating. I'm scared.
WWW
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: Salford Lads Club
Posts: 148
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
ChickenTikka, I dont think WWW is doing anything wrong in his warnings to wannabees, not that he needs anyone to defend him Im sure he's big and ugly enough to do that himself (no offence 
).
However you just have to read some posts in this thread and others to see that the message just aint getting through to some, this "dream" seems to knock out some of their common sense! I replied to one the other day who was talking about "yeah, there maybe some job losses in the industry now, but in about 12 to 18 months, they should all be over and things on the up etc etc etc ...."
Bloody hell, what does it take to get through to people like this. Even if things are "on the up" (which is highly highly unlikely), he seemed to assume, okeydokey then, job losses over, thus me with my 200 hrs must be in with a shout.........that just isn't reality, and he's not the only one.
So if anyone's words on here can make these people at least stop, pause, and THINK, then surely it's appropriate. And the message obviously hasn't got through so far to some, so it may need spelling out in harsh, blatant terms.
).However you just have to read some posts in this thread and others to see that the message just aint getting through to some, this "dream" seems to knock out some of their common sense! I replied to one the other day who was talking about "yeah, there maybe some job losses in the industry now, but in about 12 to 18 months, they should all be over and things on the up etc etc etc ...."
Bloody hell, what does it take to get through to people like this. Even if things are "on the up" (which is highly highly unlikely), he seemed to assume, okeydokey then, job losses over, thus me with my 200 hrs must be in with a shout.........that just isn't reality, and he's not the only one.
So if anyone's words on here can make these people at least stop, pause, and THINK, then surely it's appropriate. And the message obviously hasn't got through so far to some, so it may need spelling out in harsh, blatant terms.
Join Date: May 2001
Posts: 10,815
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Your never going to get through to a majority of the dreamers.
It's up to them if they don't want to listen to WWW.
Its not our cash in fact its not thier's either most of the time. Let them spend it.
There will always be the few examples of people getting lucky, although to be honest I don't think luck has much to do with it. Its all hard work and determination.
There has always been wash out rates at all stages of the process to getting to fly the line. When times are good a higher proportion of those that first sit in a light aircraft for the porpose of earning a living, when times are bad a lower amount will get there.
I did ask at the CAA why they didn't produce statistics on.
1. Number of intial class 1 medicals issued.
2. Number of initial sittings of ATPL's
3. Number of intial CPL's issued
4. Number of Intial IR's
5. Number of first type ratings issued.
It is classed as highly commercially sensitive information. By not only the training industry but also the CAA and Airlines.
Why because the whole system works by having a glut of supply of new pilots. Airlines need to be able to grab folk off the street. The training system needs a constant through put or it can't keep up with the fluctuations in demand from the airlines. And the CAA needs people in the system or it starts costing them serious amounts of money keeping the system in place and also gives them issues with again the lag time getting things ramped up when demand requires it.
Wannabies are pawns in a very large and expensive industry which is very heavy in capital investment from the very outset of training the small proportion of the staff which is mission critical to its survival. Millions are pumped into the training industry which never earn a penny for the people spending the money.
Its not in anyones interests apart from the pilots themselves for the real state of play in respects to jobs to be fully known. In fact it would kill any chance of airlines being able to react to customer demands.
Its going to be pretty horrible for the next few years. WWW in my opinion is right just now but I suspect it could get a whole lot worse. God forbid Flybe, easyjet or any of the large fleet operators go tits up. It could go quite rapidly from a pain in the bum for the majority to a complete collapse in the pilot market which will take 5 years plus to sort out.
So if you think about it the dreamers are actually helping out the people who take the advice from WWW they are supporting the system so when it does become an acceptable risk to train all the services are still available. The skill is going to be when to commit to training.
It's up to them if they don't want to listen to WWW.
Its not our cash in fact its not thier's either most of the time. Let them spend it.
There will always be the few examples of people getting lucky, although to be honest I don't think luck has much to do with it. Its all hard work and determination.
There has always been wash out rates at all stages of the process to getting to fly the line. When times are good a higher proportion of those that first sit in a light aircraft for the porpose of earning a living, when times are bad a lower amount will get there.
I did ask at the CAA why they didn't produce statistics on.
1. Number of intial class 1 medicals issued.
2. Number of initial sittings of ATPL's
3. Number of intial CPL's issued
4. Number of Intial IR's
5. Number of first type ratings issued.
It is classed as highly commercially sensitive information. By not only the training industry but also the CAA and Airlines.
Why because the whole system works by having a glut of supply of new pilots. Airlines need to be able to grab folk off the street. The training system needs a constant through put or it can't keep up with the fluctuations in demand from the airlines. And the CAA needs people in the system or it starts costing them serious amounts of money keeping the system in place and also gives them issues with again the lag time getting things ramped up when demand requires it.
Wannabies are pawns in a very large and expensive industry which is very heavy in capital investment from the very outset of training the small proportion of the staff which is mission critical to its survival. Millions are pumped into the training industry which never earn a penny for the people spending the money.
Its not in anyones interests apart from the pilots themselves for the real state of play in respects to jobs to be fully known. In fact it would kill any chance of airlines being able to react to customer demands.
Its going to be pretty horrible for the next few years. WWW in my opinion is right just now but I suspect it could get a whole lot worse. God forbid Flybe, easyjet or any of the large fleet operators go tits up. It could go quite rapidly from a pain in the bum for the majority to a complete collapse in the pilot market which will take 5 years plus to sort out.
So if you think about it the dreamers are actually helping out the people who take the advice from WWW they are supporting the system so when it does become an acceptable risk to train all the services are still available. The skill is going to be when to commit to training.
Last edited by mad_jock; 31st Oct 2008 at 12:11.
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: cyberspace
Posts: 181
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
The flight training industry is a big business.
There is a long line of people ranging from instructors, to the secretaries and admin staff at the flying schools, to the government workers, medical examiners, you name it, who are totally dependent on there being a constant supply of young dreamers with stars in their eyes.
I'ts a big business, and every wannabe who steps into the "sales office" (pardon, it's technically called the 'Admissions Office'" should be aware of this fact.
There is a long line of people ranging from instructors, to the secretaries and admin staff at the flying schools, to the government workers, medical examiners, you name it, who are totally dependent on there being a constant supply of young dreamers with stars in their eyes.
I'ts a big business, and every wannabe who steps into the "sales office" (pardon, it's technically called the 'Admissions Office'" should be aware of this fact.
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: Portugal
Posts: 5
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
PosClimb, 
ok, all the Universities are a 'big business', all Music schools are a 'big business', even all Football schools are 'a big business', etc etc etc...That's life. What's your point?
ok, all the Universities are a 'big business', all Music schools are a 'big business', even all Football schools are 'a big business', etc etc etc...That's life. What's your point?
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: cyberspace
Posts: 181
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
ok, all the Universities are a 'big business', all Music schools are a 'big business', even all Football schools are 'a big business', etc etc etc...That's life. What's your point?]
Some naive younglings, however, might think that because the flying school is a "school" quote unquote that they're going to get impartial advice. After all, "schools" are about unbiased truth, aren't they? Or that the industry will give them 'impartial' advice.
As mentioned, there's a long line of people from from the secretaries to gov't workers whose jobs are dependent on there being wannabees with stars in their eyes.